Energy 269 (2023) 126791

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Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/energy

Predictive control of low-temperature heating system with passive thermal

mass energy storage and photovoltaic system: Impact of occupancy patterns
and climate change
Zhichen Wei *, John Calautit
Department of Architecture and Built Environment, University of Nottingham, UK

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Handling Editor: X Zhao With the increasing energy prices and growing concerns over energy security, an accelerated transition to net
zero carbon built environment has never been more important. Many studies have shown the capabilities of
Keywords: advanced control strategies such as model predictive control (MPC) to achieve energy efficiency, balance with
Building energy thermal comfort and air quality. It has also shown its capability to provide demand flexibility, minimising peak
Climate change
load demands and maximising the production of renewable energy sources in buildings. This work investigates
Future weather conditions
the potential of integrating price-responsive MPC with a low-temperature heating system and passive structural
Model predictive control (MPC)
Occupancy thermal energy storage (STES). Integration with a photovoltaic (PV) system is also explored. The system per­
Passive structural thermal energy storage formance under future climate conditions is evaluated considering different design and operating conditions,
Price response including different thermal mass, occupancy patterns and internal heat gains, setpoint strategies and operation
Solar energy temperatures of the low-temperature heating system. The coupled model developed has been verified and
Thermal mass validated with numerical and experimental data, and good agreement is observed. The results showed that
TRNSYS mediumweight thermal mass and a medium-temperature (45 ◦ C) under-floor heating inlet temperature provided
a higher load shifting ability, based on a realistic occupancy profile for a residential building and a high tolerance
setpoint strategy during unoccupied periods. The result also showed that higher low-price energy usage and
lower heating energy usage could be achieved in future climate conditions. Finally, an increase in the load
shifting ability was observed after the integration of rooftop solar PV system.

1. Introduction and literature review advanced and intelligent control strategies to achieve a balance between
thermal comfort, indoor air quality and energy efficiency. An example of
Buildings are responsible for a large portion of global energy con­ this is the application of model predictive control (MPC), which has
sumption. The carbon dioxide emissions generated by the built envi­ received much interest in the built environment field due to its potential
ronment sector, both directly and indirectly, account for one-third of the for the optimal operation of building energy systems for multiple ob­
energy-related carbon dioxide emissions [1]. In cold climates, a large jectives [3]. In addition, several studies have also shown MPC’s capa­
percentage of the energy used in buildings is dedicated to indoor space bilities in providing demand flexibility, minimising peak load demands
heating, specifically during peak periods [2]. With the increasing energy and maximising the production of renewable energy sources [4–6].
prices and growing concerns over energy security, an accelerated tran­ As renewable energy technologies such as photovoltaic (PV) systems
sition to net zero carbon built environment has never been more become more affordable, the possibility of achieving net zero carbon
important. There are many solutions that can be implemented to achieve buildings increases. However, the intermittency of solar power can lead
this, including the integration of passive design strategies, energy effi­ to a mismatch between solar generation and energy demand. These is­
cient control, and onsite renewable energy and storage. sues of intermittency, fluctuation and unpredictability are hurdles to
While it is important to focus on decreasing energy consumption, the solar integration and are further intensified during peak load periods. At
provision of a thermally comfortable and healthy indoor environment is the same time, the building demand is influenced by various factors,
also equally important. Many studies have shown the capabilities of including the weather, envelope, energy system and occupancy

* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: [email protected] (Z. Wei), [email protected] (J. Calautit).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2023.126791
Received 16 September 2022; Received in revised form 12 December 2022; Accepted 21 January 2023
Available online 23 January 2023
0360-5442/Crown Copyright © 2023 Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Z. Wei and J. Calautit Energy 269 (2023) 126791

behaviour/patterns. Occupancy behaviour represents one of the major et al. [33], a photovoltaic (PV) system was integrated with a storage
sources of uncertainty related to building energy use [7]. Many re­ system. In their TRNSYS simulation, the storage system could be
searchers [3,8–18] have proposed storage solutions and control strate­ controlled to discharge or charge depending on dynamic electricity
gies to address the gap between supply and demand. For example, pricing. Similarly, in the study of Khordehgah et al. [34], a control
thermal energy storage (TES) could fill this gap and also take advantage system was proposed to charge the battery with power produced from
of time-of-use tariff schemes [3,17,19,20], which further unlocks the PV collector during the surplus supply periods based on the real-time
demand-side flexibility and allows the integration of more renewables. load profile. A heat pump and PV system, integrated with thermal en­
With an appropriate control strategy and local storage, buildings can ergy storage and intelligent control, was evaluated in the study of
work in synergy with the grid and be responsive to its requirements. Kemmler and Thomas [35] and the results showed that up to 41% of the
Such a solution stores energy during off-peak periods and uses the stored building’s electricity consumption including the heat pump could be
energy during peak periods in response to dynamic electricity prices. covered by the PV installation per year. The study by Toradmal et al.
This effectively shifts the thermal energy loads to daily off-peak hours. [36] employed heuristic optimisation method for the optimal operation
Building thermal energy shifting eases the energy grid stress and of a heat pump and PV system with thermal energy storage. They
contributes to optimal network operation [8,21]. While there are evaluated the thermal flexibility of a building to shift the heating system
different types of storage that can be used to achieve this, the thermal operation to the times of PV energy generation. The results showed that
heat capacity of a building envelope presents a potential for storing the building could offer significant thermal storage capacity to improve
energy passively, and at the same time, it can be a cost-effective solution. the share of onsite PV electricity utilisation. In the study of Langer and
Building thermal energy could be stored in advance by using the Volling [37], a simulation of PV, heat pump, battery and thermal storage
building envelope and structure itself, named structural thermal energy for the building heating and hot water supply was conducted. It showed
storage (STES) in this study, without the additional cost. In particular, that feed-in electricity from the grid was required for efficiently using
STES can be coupled with heating, ventilation and air-conditioning the PV surplus electrical energy. In the present study, the integration of a
(HVAC) systems in demand response (DR) programs [15]. The thermal low-temperature under-floor heating system and passive thermal stor­
energy is charged or discharged automatically by the temperature dif­ age, assisted by PV will be further explored using similar methods
ference between the indoor air and the envelope [3,8–11]. As a result, employed by previous works.
the energy system usage can be reduced at certain times for peak-time Gi et al. [38] estimated that the world thermal heating demand in
demand reduction [12,13]. However, the system must still be oper­ 2050 would be 2.4 times higher than the figures for 2010. Similarly,
ated within the limits of the thermal comfort requirements of the energy demand for buildings will rise by almost 50% between 2010 and
occupants. 2050, based on the estimation of the International Energy Agency (IEA)
A floor heating (FH) system is a good candidate for integration with [1]. Many works [9,15,21] have evaluated relevant solutions for
STES [11]. The floor heating system preheats the thermal mass, i.e., the decarbonisation and future climate change. It is predicted that climate
floor element, and then the floor heats the indoor air. The amount of change will affect the cooling and heating demand. The changes in daily
stored energy is larger in a floor heating system than in other heating peak supply periods would influence the performance of the storage
systems, such as the radiator [11], under the same charging time. As a technology. Currently, no study has investigated the impact of future
result, the energy storage efficiency is increased [14,22]. climate conditions on the performance of STES with low-temperature
There is usually a delay because of the time constant of the building heating system and MPC. Furthermore, the increased uptake of solar
elements. Time constant is the building’s response time to reach a new energy systems in the future could aid the energy shifting capabilities of
thermal equilibrium when there is a change in its internal and external such an energy storage system. Hence, the influence of future climate
thermal conditions [23]. Thus, the indoor temperature should be conditions on the system integrated with PV will also be explored.
controlled in a predictive way by considering the delayed response of the The present study will address these gaps by evaluating the capa­
indoor temperature to the changes of environment. A predictive control bility of a building-integrated PV system to enhance the performance of
strategy can maintain a comfortable indoor temperature using a heating passive building energy storage technology under future climate sce­
strategy [24], specifically by a room dynamic representation [3]. Model narios (2030, 2050 and 2080). Furthermore, the use of MPC in con­
predictive control (MPC) is applicable in STES because it automatically trolling the low-temperature floor heating system in combination with
triggers the energy charging/discharging and maintains indoor comfort the rooftop PV installation will be explored. Other research gaps, such as
[3–6,25]. the impacts of occupancy patterns, system operating temperature and
The storage capacity of building envelopes varies, and studies [15, setpoint strategy that hasn’t been analysed in previous studies will be
16,26–28] showed that heavier thermal mass has a better thermal en­ investigated. A validated coupled model will be used to simulate the
ergy storage performance and can switch off the HVAC system for longer performance of the price-responsive MPC control strategy integrated
periods of time after fully charging [17]. The load shifting performance with the STES, low-temperature heating and building-integrated PV
of different envelopes is distinguished by the amount and the time of system. The proposed MPC control strategy will automatically shift
load shaping. Studies investigated the effect of envelopes in the DR energy consumption in response to dynamic electricity prices i.e. from
program for better network stress relief. Le Dréau et al. [17] and Johra high-price to low-price periods and maximise the use of PV electrical
et al. [19] investigated the effects of envelopes on STES performance energy.
guided by dynamic price. They charged the building envelope during Section 2 will introduce the method of co-simulation of MATLAB and
low-price periods and discharged it during high-price periods. The re­ TRNSYS for MPC control strategy, including the development of the
sults showed that the heavyweight envelope shifted more peak-time numerical model and the platform communicating the time-dependent
energy than the lightweight envelope. information between MATLAB and TRNSYS. The MPC control strategy
Today, renewable energy sources (RES) are increasingly being developed in Section 2 will aim to maximise the usage of rooftop PV
introduced into the energy supply system [29], which brings un­ electrical energy and minimise the total electricity cost. Section 3 in­
certainties in the amount of instantaneous energy supply. As a result, troduces the building model with different configurations of the thermal
network congestion happens when the network load is high [30]. An mass. This section also discusses the simulation of future climates of
optimal grid operation is required for congestion management, which 2030, 2050 and 2080, including global radiation, outdoor temperature
matches the demand to the supply, such as by using demand response and relative humidity.
(DR) which could be achieved by strategies such as dynamic pricing [3, Furthermore, in Section 3, the development of typical residential
8,31,32]. Many studies have also integrated RES, such as PV systems, occupancy, lights and equipment profiles for weekdays and weekends
with energy storage and advanced control. In the study of Chapaloglou and different setpoint strategies and FH inlet temperatures are detailed.

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Z. Wei and J. Calautit Energy 269 (2023) 126791

The use of the day-ahead electricity prices obtained from the available system dynamics for a minimal cost [4–6]. In this study, the heating
power market will be discussed. Section 4 details the process of vali­ system was controlled by the MPC based on pre-set temperature con­
dation of the model with previous studies. straints and shift the energy use to low price periods. The formulation of
Section 5 discusses the performance of the proposed MPC control MPC is:
strategy and the energy shifting performances under different thermal
∑
N− 1
mass configurations, occupancy profiles, FH inlet temperatures, and min (uk , yk ) (1)
setpoint strategies. The influence of future climate conditions on STES k=0
performance with and without rooftop PV systems will also be discussed
k is the current time step. N is the prediction horizon. u and y stand
in Section 5.
for manipulating variables and system states. The solver compared
different trajectories. Then, it chooses one with minimal cost in the
2. Research method prediction horizon. The MPC strategy can include the Kalman filter
[3–5], which corrects the predicted system states with real-time
In this study, the building fabric stores energy to shift the peak load measured system states to increase the prediction accuracy. As a
to off-peak times. The control strategy simultaneously considers all the result, a more reliable control trajectory is solved by the MPC. Two
influential variable such as the weather conditions, internal heat gains optimisation problems were formed to investigate the effect of the en­
and the electricity price. As a result, a reduction of electricity cost and an velope on the STES performance. The optimisation aims to maximise the
increase in energy efficiency can be achieved by employing the proposed solar energy and low-price energy usage for heavyweight, medium­
method (Fig. 1). weight and lightweight thermal mass.
This section will introduce the resistance-capacitance (R–C) model
for simulating the room thermal dynamics and indoor temperature 2.1.2. Dynamic model of the simulated room with a low-temperature floor
prediction. Then, the MPC objective equations for maximising low-price heating system
energy usage and rooftop PV energy usage, along with Kalman filter for The MPC strategy of a building thermal energy system requires a
MPC functions, are discussed. This section also introduces the room state numerical room representation so that the future indoor temperatures
space model and MPC objective functions employed in MATLAB. can be compared under different control trajectories. Resistance-
Finally, the method for co-simualting in TRNSYS and MATLAB is capacitance (RC) room model can predict the future indoor tempera­
presented. ture by responding to the weather condition and thermal energy feed [3,
8,39–43]. Indoor temperature can be calculated from the previous
2.1. Control strategy based on the energy supply time’s temperature and the current time’s heat exchange. In this study, it
is assumed that there are no internal mass, such as internal wall partion
2.1.1. Model predictive control scheme for maximising heating energy and furniture. The room R–C model includes the heat loss and heat
storage transfer from node to node (Fig. 2a) [3].
The MPC strategy carries out future control based on constraints and Each temperature node represents a state for heat transfer. In this

Fig. 1. STES with (a) energy from the grid (b) energy from the grid and rooftop PV panel.

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Z. Wei and J. Calautit Energy 269 (2023) 126791

Fig. 2. (a) Room resistance-capacitance model (b) 3D model of the simulated room with dimensions in metres.

study, we used three nodes for walls, including the external wall (Tw,ext ), dTpp Tfl − Tpp Tinlet − Tpp
internal wall (Tw,int ) and floor element (Tfl ). One node for indoor air (Tin ) = +( ) (8)
dt Rpp,fl Cpp Rinlet,mean + Rmean,pp Cpp
and one node for floor heating system temperature (Tpp ). The heating
sources are solar radiation Qsolar to all inside surfaces and heating energy The indoor temperature and pipe temperature can then be calculated
Qheating to the pipeline. The continuous-time heat transfer equations of from a state-space representation:
different temperature nodes are: dx(t)
= Ax(t) + Bu(t) (9)
dTw,ext To − Tw,ext Tw,int − Tw,ext Qsolar,w dt
= + + (2)
dt Rw,o Cw Rw C w Cw
y(t) = Cx(t) (10)
dTw,int Tw,ext − Tw,int Tin − Tw,int Qinter,w,int Qsolar,w,int
= + + + (3) The state vector x is:
dt Rw C w Rw,in Cw Cw Cw
T
[ Tw,ext Tw,int Tin Tfl Tpp ]
dTin Tw,int − Tin To − Tin Tfl − Tin Qinter,in
= + + + (4) The output vector y is:
dt Rw,in Cin Rwin Cin Rfl,in Cin Cin
[ ]
Tin
dTfl Tin − Tfl Tpp − Tfl Qsolar,fl Qinter,fl Tpp
= + + + (5)
dt Rfl,in Cfl Rpp,fl Cfl Cfl Cfl
And input vector u
dTpp Tfl − Tpp Qheating
= + (6) [ To Isolar Qinter Tinlet ]
T
dt Rpp,fl Cpp Cpp

Tinlet − Tpp With system matrices A B C are:

Qheating = (7)
Rinlet,mean + Rmean,pp A

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Z. Wei and J. Calautit Energy 269 (2023) 126791

⎛ ⎞
− 1 − 1 1
⎜R C + R C 0 0 0 ⎟
⎜ w,o w w w Rw Cw ⎟
⎜ ⎟
⎜ 1 − 1 − 1 1 ⎟
⎜ + 0 0 ⎟
⎜ Rw C w Rw Cw Rw,in Cw Rw,in Cw ⎟
⎜ ⎟
⎜ ⎟
⎜ 1 − 1 − 1 − 1 1 ⎟
⎜ 0 + + 0 ⎟
⎜ ⎟
⎜ Rw,in Cin Rw,in Cin Rwin Cin Rfl,in Cin Rfl,in Cin ⎟
⎜ ⎟
⎜ 1 − 1 − 1 1 ⎟
⎜ 0 0 + ⎟
⎜ ⎟
⎜ Rfl,in Cfl Rfl,in Cfl Rpp,fl Cfl Rpp,fl Cfl ⎟
⎜ ⎟
⎜ 1 − 1 − 1 ⎟
⎝ ⎠
0 0 0 +( )
Rpp,fl Cpp Rpp,fl Cpp Rinlet,mean + Rmean,pp Cpp

uk − Tpp(k)
uheating(k) = (16)
Rinlet,mean + Rmean,pp
B ( )
uk = Tpp(k) in this case, uheating(k) = 0 (off ) or uk = Tinlet (heating is on)
∫ (17a)
× Aw
⎛ 1 solar,w
0 0
⎞ q and r are the weights in the cost function. r is set for a larger value
⎜ Rw,o Cw Cw ⎟ to give priority to limit the indoor temperature going beyond the tem­
⎜ ∫ ∫ ⎟
⎜ ⎟ perature constraints [4]. COP is the coefficient of performance, which is
⎜ × Awin ⎟
⎜
⎜ 0 solar,int,w inter,w,int
⎟
⎟ used to identify the amount of thermal energy produced from electrical
⎜
⎜ Cw Cw
0 ⎟
⎟ energy. COP is set to a constant [3,8] (i.e., 3) in this study. N is the
⎜
⎜ ∫ ⎟
⎟ prediction horizon, set to 12 h with 30 min for each time step.
⎜ ⎟
⎜ ⎟
⎜ 1 ⎟
2.1.4. Solar electrical energy usage model
inter,in
⎜ 0 0 ⎟
⎜ Rwin Cin Cin ⎟
⎜
⎜ ∫ ∫ ⎟
⎟ To investigate the increased energy flexibility offered by the building
⎜
⎜ × Awin
⎟
⎟ envelope with the help of rooftop PV panel, a rooftop solar electrical
⎜
⎜ 0 solar,fl inter,fl1
0
⎟
⎟ energy usage model was simulated. In this case, solar electrical energy
⎝ ⎠
Cfl Cfl would be generated by photovoltaic (PV) panels. Then, the available
1 electrical energy (surplus energy(k)) is assumed to be the primary energy
0 0 0 ( )
Rinlet,mean + Rmean,pp Cpp supply source of the simulated room. The cost function for maximising
rooftop solar electrical energy usage is:
C ((u ) )2
∑
N− 1
heating(k)
[ ] J = min q× − surplus energy(k) × price × Δt + r × ek 2
0 0 1 0 0 k=0
COP
0 0 0 0 1 (17b)
The system matrices A and B were identified by ssest function [3] in Subject to
MATLAB [43] with known input and output data.
xk+1 = Ad xk + Bd uk + Ed dk (18)
2.1.3. Dynamic price model yk = Cd xk (19)
The continuous-time state space model ((9) (10)) was turned into the
discrete-time model ((12) (13)) with input vector u is Tinlet and distur­ Tmin (k) − ek ≤ yk ≤ Tmin(k) + ek (20)
bance vector d is [ To Isolar ]T . Then, the predicted indoor temperature
by state-space model was used in the MPC strategy to trace the future ek ≥ 0 (21)
temperature constraints. By introducing the dynamic price [4], which
encourages energy usage during off-peak times, a cost function is formed uheating(k) =
uk − Tpp(k)
(22)
to evaluate the load shifting ability of envelopes with different thermal Rinlet,mean + Rmean,pp
mass. ( )
( )2 uk = Tpp(k) in this case, uheating(k) = 0 (off ) or uk = Tinlet (heating is on) (23)
∑
N− 1
uheating(k) × price × Δt
J = min q× + r × ek 2
(11)
k=0
COP
2.2. Kalman filter
Subject to
xk+1 = Ad xk + Bd uk + Ed dk (12) For each time step, the proposed MPC strategy would identify the
optimal control trajectories in the prediction horizon, only the first
yk = Cd xk (13) control strategy was taken and fed to the building model. Then, the
predicted temperatures by the state-space model in the previous time
Tmin (k) − ek ≤ yk ≤ Tmin(k) + ek (14) step were corrected with the simulated temperatures after the current-
time control signal was applied. The correction was done by the Kal­
ek ≥ 0 (15) man filter [3–5]:
Predicted sate in previous time step:

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Z. Wei and J. Calautit Energy 269 (2023) 126791

xk = Ax ek− 1 + Buk + Edk (24) time step.

Besides, MPC can limit the temperature by including the comfort
Error covariance:
violation in the cost function. The comfort violation is:
pk = A*pk *A + G*Q*G (25)
′ ′

constraints = [constraints, Tmin (k + 1) − e{k + 1} ≤ c*x{k + 1} ≤ Tmax (k + 1)

Kalman filter gain: + e{k + 1}
(33)
Kk = pk *C / (C*pk *C + R) (26)
′ ′

Update state estimation from predicted value with m: Where Tmin and Tmax are the temperature bounds, and e is the comfort
violation.
x ek = xk + Kk *(yk − C*xk ) (27) The limitation of the comfort violation in the cost function with
Covariance of predicted state estimation error: denoted weights q is:

pk+1 = (G − Kk *C)*pk (28) e{k + 1} *q*e{k + 1} (34)

′

Where x is the predicted state by state-space model. x e is the The cost function of multi-objectives with denoted weights can give
updated current state by both the predicted state and measured state. y priority to the most important objective. In this study, a larger weight of
denotes the measurement used to update the current state. p is the error temperature violation gives priority to indoor comfort. The two con­
covariance. K is the Kalman filter gain. A B C E G are the system flicting objectives were summarised in the cost function. The cost
matrices. The above Kalman filter equations apply the measurement function is:
noise covariance R and process noise covariance Q to update the current
Objective = (uheating{k}*price(k)) *r*(uheating{k}*price(k))
′

state x e(k) through both the measured state yk and the predicted state xk .
R is smaller than G, which means the measured values are more reliable + e{k + 1} *q*e{k + 1} (35)
′

than the predicted values and vice versa. In this case, R is set to 1 and Q
is set to 50 to rely on the simulated temperatures more than the pre­ where r is the weight for limiting the heating cost, price is the day ahead
dicted temperatures. hourly price, uheating is the amount of heating energy.
Comfort violation is calculated based on the current time heating
system status by setting the constraints. Finally, we could infer unknown
2.3. State space model
parameters based on the known parameters. In each loop, current time
parameters are inputs for calculating the control signal with minimal
The system matrix is identified in MATLAB with the initial guess
cost. The current time parameters include:
from wall’s material, including layers’ conductivity and capacity [8] for
the heavyweight, middleweight and lightweight thermal mass. The parameter = {x{1}, price, disturbance, Tmin , Tmax } (36)
initial state space model m is:
Where x{1} is the current state proposed to be updated by the Kalman
m = idss(A, B, C, D) (29)
filter and measure temperature from TRNSYS.
The MPC calculates the optimal trajectory of the control signal by the
Where idss is the function to create a state space model with identifiable
denoted solver (e.g., gurobi solver [45]) based on the current time input.
parameters. The data captured from TRNSYS is from November 23 to
December 7 (two weeks), and the time step is 30 min (i.e., 1800s). The ′
ops = sdpsetting(’solver , ’gurobi’) (37)
data object is:
control = optimizer(constraints, objective, ops, parameter) (38)
data = iddata(output, input, 1800) (30)
Finally, the algorithm can be stored as an optimiser to return the
Data is a “iddata” object, which can store the input data, output data
control signal with time-dependent inputs.
and the time step. Then, the system matrix is adjusted in MATLAB with
ssest function, which aims to minimise the error between the measured solved control signal = control {input(k)} (39)
data and the identified data by identifying the system matrix start from
Furthermore, another MPC model was created to maximise the usage
the initial values.
of solar energy, generated by roof PV panels while the remaining de­
m = ssest(data, m) (31) mand comes from the grid. Thus, the control strategy aims to use or store
the solar energy to avoid or reduce the use of energy from the grid under
Where ssest is the state space model estimation command. the MPC strategy.

2.4. Model predictive control (MPC) 2.5. Co-simulation of TRNSYS and MATLAB

The MPC was developed in MATLAB through the optimisation TRNSYS can call MATLAB in each time step and feed the results back
toolbox [44]. MPC have manipulating variables, which are identified in to the simulation. At the start of the simulation, state-space models,
the optimisation and are solved for each time step in the prediction Kalman filter, MPC model and predicting disturbance were loaded in
horizon by inputting time-dependent parameters. Thus, we set the MATLAB and were prepared for use in the calculation. After TRSNYS
control signal as the manipulating variable. The algorithm of the MPC calculates the room model temperatures, TRNSYS feeds the room and
includes the relationship between variables by setting the constraints. In pipe temperatures to MATLAB for the Kalman filter. Then, MPC model
this study, the indoor temperature inferred from the numerical room can figure out the control strategy. At the end of each time step in
model was set as a constraint. TRNSYS, MATLAB is called by Type 155 for the control signal of the next
time step. Besides, there is a step increment (equation (40)) in MATLAB
constraints = [x{k + 1} = = a*x{k} + b*w{k} + e*disturbance(k)] (32) to match the time step with TRNSYS

Where a, b and e are the system matrices, x is the temperature states, w is nStep = nStep + 1 (40)
the heating water temperature, disturbance includes the outdoor tem­
perature, internal heat gains and solar radiation, and k is the current nStep means the current time step

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Z. Wei and J. Calautit Energy 269 (2023) 126791

Table 1
Layers of the different wall configurations, from inside to outside [8].
Heavy weighted wall Medium weighted wall Light weighted wall

20 mm gypsum 100 mm brick 100 mm dense concrete

300 mm dense concrete 100 mm low-density concrete 25 mm insulation layer
125 mm insulation layer 150 mm insulation layer 13 mm finish layer
100 mm brick
Overall U-value: 0.30 (W/m2 K) Overall U-value: 0.25 (W/m2 K) Overall U-value: 1.11 (W/m2 K)

flexibility, minimise peak load demands and maximise the production of

3. Building energy simulation (BES) model
renewable energy sources could go a long way in reducing the resi­
dential sector’s emissions. Unlocking the load shifting potential in the
3.1. Case study building model
residential sector requires an understanding of the energy storage po­
tentials and constraints by thermal mass in specific typologies. In this
The building room model is shown in Fig. 2b. It is a simplified room
study, the selected single-family semi-detached house represents a
model with the dimension of 8 × 8 × 3 m3. An underfloor heating sys­
typical house in the UK and accounts for a quarter of houses in the UK
tem was used for maintaining the indoor temperature [3]. The room has
[51]. This dwelling type keeps increasing year by year [51]. To simplify,
two windows, one located on the south wall and another window
we modelled a zone of a single-family semi-detached house (Fig. 2b) to
located on the east wall. The window-to-wall ratio is 0.5 [8]. The time
simulate the effect of the envelope on energy flexibility. Three config­
constant of the building thermal mass are 6.74hrs for lightweight ther­
urations of thermal mass were compared (Fig. 2b & Table 1) [8] in terms
mal mass, 14.80hrs for mediumweight thermal mass and 18.15hrs for
of the load shifting potential.
heavyweight thermal mass. These values are obtained based on the
building’s internal heat capacity and overall heat transmittance, ac­
3.2. Future weather data generation
cording to the method by Xue et al. [8]. The total building surface area
involved in the heat exchange process is 200 m2.
Future weather data was obtained from Meteonorm [52]. The future
The building is located in London, UK, which typically requires
weather data was predicted following the IPCC RCP 4.5 scenario (Fig. 3).
heating from October to May. London has a high heating demand, with
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario in which
around 5750 heating degree hours (HDH) in December [46], which is
radiative forcing is stabilised at 4.5 W/m2 in the year 2100. The scenario
larger than the mean yearly HDH of Sydney [47] and similar to the cities
includes long-term, and global emissions of greenhouse gasses in a
in cold climate zones in China [48] and Athens, Greece [49]. UK
global economic framework [53]. Following the RCP climate scenario,
household accounts for up to 40% of UK greenhouse gas emissions [50],
the changes of climatic parameters could be predicted [54]. Based on the
and the heating energy demand is responsible for a significant portion of
RCP 4.5 scenario, we obtained the global radiation, ambient tempera­
this. Hence, using optimal heating control strategies to provide demand
ture and relative humidity data for 2030, 2050 and 2080 usng the

Fig. 3. Current and future predicted weather data for London, UK: (a) global radiation, (b) outdoor temperature (c) relative humidity.

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Z. Wei and J. Calautit Energy 269 (2023) 126791

Meteonorm software [52]. [55]. The occupancy pattern of working family household usually has a
The simulation was carried out for a typical winter period to compare regular daily pattern with members absent during the day through the
the performance of the STES with the floor heating system. The average week [55]. The internal heat gains include 4 people (externally working
temperatures for simulation periods of contemporary, 2030, 2050 and 2080 couples with 2 children). The weekly schedule is shown in Fig. 4, which
are 8.07 ◦ C, 9.01 ◦ C, 9.08 ◦ C and 9.58 ◦ C. The average daily global solar shows that occupants stay in the house during weekend and away from
radiation for simulation periods of contemporary, 2030, 2050 and 2080 are the house from 9:00 a.m. to 16:00 p.m. during weekdays.
1175.86 W/m2, 986.43 W/m2, 1175.29 W/m2 and 1429.43 W/m2. The internal heat gains for the people were obtained from CIBSE
Guide A [56], including convective (46 W), and radiative (69 W) gains
3.3. Internal heat gains for each occupant. Fluorescent-triphosphor lightings were assumed to be
installed with a max 10 W/m2 power density with 30% radiative gains
Since occupancy contributes to the building energy use and its [56]. Electric equipment was assumed with a max 10 W/m2 power
modelling uncertainty, we evaluated its impact on the system’s perfor­ density with 14% radiative heat dissipation [56]. We generated week­
mance by comparing different configurations of occupancy profiles and day lighting and equipment profiles according to Dott et al. [57] and
occupant-related loads (Fig. 4). In this case, the profiles were set based Simson et al. [58]. Lights are switched on during the early morning and
on a typical UK residential building. The working family household the periods starting from the time that members come back home from
occupancy pattern represents almost 1/3 of the population in the UK offices and schools (i.e., 16:00) until 22:00 and reach their max usage

Fig. 4. Internal heat gains profiles: (a) fixed schedule, typical daily UK residential building internal heat gains profiles during (b) weekdays (c) weekends [51,52],
and (d) week schedule for heating setpoint.

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Z. Wei and J. Calautit Energy 269 (2023) 126791

Fig. 5. Day-ahead electricity price from November 23 [62].

from 18:00 p.m. to 22:00 p.m. Equipment assumes to reach its minimal and warm-air heating [59]. FH requires low-temperature heat source,
capacity when people are away and have a max capacity during early while traditional convection heating needs to raise the water tempera­
morning and from 18:00 p.m. to 22:00 p.m. For the weekend, the peak ture to higher levels [60]. Floor heating (FH) systems have been eval­
times of lights and equipment were assumed to be the same as on uated in the experimental study [61], which showed that solar energy
weekdays. For the weekend, the people are assumed to be staying at integration led to energy-saving of up to 30.55% compared with the
home for the whole day with lightings turned on from morning to night conventional central heating system [60]. In this study, we will evaluate
(decreased to a usual value for the remaining periods). The set weekly the STES performances under different FH inlet temperatures. FH inlet
internal heat gains are shown in Fig. 4b and c). Then, a constant or fixed temperature was set between 35 and 55 ◦ C allowing for utilisation of
internal heat gain schedule was used for comparison (Fig. 4a). The fixed low-temperature energy sources [3].
schedule total internal heat gains were equal to the proposed realistic
internal heat gains for the whole simulation period. Thus, a fixed set­ 3.5. Electricity prices
point strategy (low bound 22 ◦ C and high bound 25 ◦ C) was applied for
the fixed internal heat gain model. In this study, the day-ahead UK electricity prices obtained from the
A higher (2 ◦ C higher) [19] upper bound temperature was set in “Nord Pool” [62] from November 23 was applied in the optimisation
strategy 1 for the preheating [8] of thermal mass and benefits from problem (Fig. 5). The MPC will shift peak power demands in response
low-price energy. The results of strategy 1 would be compared with the todynamic electricity prices and provide energy flexibility [8]. The
setpoint strategy 2 that maintains the indoor temperature at a lower (1 limits for the prices were: price ≤ 16.7 GBP pence/kWh) for low price
◦
C lower) temperature bound during unoccupied periods [3] (Fig. 4d). (appears 20% time of simulation time), 16.7 GBP pence/kWh < price ≤
25 GBP pence/kWh for medium price (appears 65% time of simulation
3.4. Floor heating inlet temperatures time), price > 25 GBP pence/kWh for high price (appears 15% time of
simulation time).
Underfloor heating systems typically require lower energy to run
than other conventional space heating systems, e.g., radiator heating

Fig. 6. (a) Array efficiency of the PV panel (b) generated solar electrical energy for the selected week by the rooftop PV system.

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Z. Wei and J. Calautit Energy 269 (2023) 126791

Table 2
Parameter settings of the PV panel in TRNSYS [64].
Component Type Descriptions Value

Solar collector 103 Module short-circuit current 6.5 A

Module open-circuit voltage 21.6 V
Reference temperature 25 ◦ C
Reference insolation 1000 W/m2
Module voltage at max power point 17 V
Module current at max power point 5.9 A
Temperature coefficient of short-circuit current 0.02 A/K
Temperature coefficient of open-circuit voltage − 0.079 V/K
Module temperature at nominal operating cell temperature (NOCT) 40 ◦ C

3.6. Electrical energy generation from a rooftop PV system Coupling electricity and heat sector is one of the most necessary
actions for the successful energy transition. Solutions such as heat pump
To further evaluate the load shifting ability and impact on the energy driven by PV electricity with thermal storage [65,66] is an attractive
cost of the STES integrated with RES, PV system was installed on the roof option for fulfilling the thermal demand at a much lower level of carbon
of the building model. The rooftop PV was set based on the utilisation emissions. In this study, we are using the STES as the energy storage. The
factor (UF), which is the ratio of PV area to total roof area [12]. UF flexibility of STES is activated in order to shift the operation of the
indicates the availability of the PV area and is estimated based on the heating system to times of PV-generation, aiming for maximum onsite
rooftop characteristics. The UF was chosen to represent a high value (i. PV-electrical utilisation.
e., 0.45) for a residential building [6]. The PV panel was simulated in
TRNSYS using Type 103 (photovoltaic) (see Fig. 6 (a)). The PV panel was 4. BES and MPC model validation, state space model verification
modeled based on a monocrystalline solar panel. The array is assumed to
be connected to the load side through a maximum power point tracker Three stages of model validation and verification were carried out.
(MPPT). Thus, the power output from the PV panel to building is The building energy simulation (BES) model developed in TRNSYS was
maximised (see Fig. 6 (b)) under nonlinear electrical characteristics of initially validated with the work of Lu et al. [67]. After inputting the
PV panel [63]. This model type in TRNSYS calculates the power output collected weather data (ambient temperature, outdoor relative humid­
based on the current-voltage characteristics of the model, based on the ity, solar radiation on horizontal, etc.) and building construction ma­
incident solar radiation and temperature at the reference open-circuit terials (layer by layer), the simulated temperature had a similar pattern
condition. The parameters settings of the PV panel are detailed in and response as the measured temperatures for six continuous days
Table 2. (Fig. 7a). Overall, the maximum percentage difference is 11.06% with

Fig. 7. (a) Validated indoor temperature with Lu et al. [67], (b) validated indoor temperature with Hu et al. [3].

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Z. Wei and J. Calautit Energy 269 (2023) 126791

Fig. 8. (a) Indoor temperature controlled by different control strategies, (b) energy consumption by electricity price.

the maximum predictive temperature error of 1.18 . The validation

indicated the reliability of the TRNSYS model. Then, we changed the Table 3
material to the proposed heavyweight, mediumweight and lightweight Fit percentage of identification and verification.
thermal mass for the simulation and extended the room volume for a Parameters Heavy Medium Light
more stable indoor temperature and larger heating capacity of the weighted weighted weighted
house house house
underfloor heating system.
Furthermore, we validated the proposed MPC strategy with the work Identification Tin 75.8 fit% 83.3 fit% 84.3 fit%
of Hu et al. [3] by simulating a similar building model incorporating an Tpp 93.1 fit% 81.2 fit% 90.6 fit%
Verification Tin 75.6 fit% 77.5 fit% 81.8 fit%
MPC method. The indoor temperature in the simulated room has been
Tpp 88.8 fit% 78.3 fit% 89.8 fit%
compared with the indoor temperature of the validated room model
under the same conditions (Fig. 7b). The maximum percentage of dif­ Fit %: the percentage of the model outputting temperatures matching the
ference is 13.47% with maximum predictive temperature error of 2.55 experimental outputting temperatures [44].
◦
C, which indicates accurate modelling of the MPC method and heat
storage of the thermal mass. As can be seen, the indoor temperature validation. The identification accuracy was close to the validation ac­
controlled by MPC contributed to a much stable indoor environment (in curacy with high Fit percentage (Table 3), which indicated that this
terms of the air temperature) when compared with an on/off control numerical model could reproduce the simulated temperatures with
(Fig. 8a). Furthermore, with some energy compensation, MPC showed known inputs.
good performance in terms ofload shifting from peak times to off-peak
times by STES. Overall, MPC shifted around half of the energy 5. Results and discussion
(48.34%) to off-peak times when the on/off controller uses 100%
peak-time energy (Fig. 8b), which was consistent with the findings of Hu This section presents the heating energy storage performance
et al. with an error of 4.17% [3]. ofbuilding thermal mass under different configurations. The aspects,
The room temperature and pipe temperature were outputted from including different thermal mass, setpoint strategies, occupancy profile
TRNSYS. 500 data points of both room and pipe temperature were used and floor heating inlet temperatures, were investigated based onload
to train the state space model. Another 500 data points were generated shifting performance and low-price energy usage. Finally, a chosen
for verification. The identification and verification results are shown in configuration was simulated under future climate conditions and with
Table 3. rooftop PV system to provide insights for developing future STES sys­
( ) tems integrated with RES.
y|
|y − ̂
best fit = 1 − × 100 (41)
|y − y|
There is a large number of data points for model identification and

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Z. Wei and J. Calautit Energy 269 (2023) 126791

5.1. Comparison between different thermal mass dynamic pricing based MPC, under different FH inlet temperatures. In
terms of low price energy usage, 45 ◦ C (39.98%) FH inlet temperature
Firstly, we investigated the floor heating energy storage perfor­ outperformed 35 ◦ C (17.47%) and 55 ◦ C (29.20%). This showed that the
mances of different thermal mass. For comparison, the results for a low FH inlet temperature (e.g., 35 ◦ C) offered less energy flexibility for
typical winter period (23rd November – 2nd December) were evaluated. high price energy shifting because the heating system was required to
The daily setpoint strategy, i.e., (21 ◦ C - 25 ◦ C) for daytime (20 ◦ C - 24 turn on frequently (average 23.5 h daily with 13.84% comfort viola­
◦
C) for night-time, are same for simulated periods [3]. The initial inlet tion). 45 ◦ C FH inlet temperature could satisfy the indoor comfort
temperature of the floor heating system was set to 50 ◦ C. requirement with 0.15% comfort violation and an average 6.5 h daily
Fig. 9a shows that the indoor temperature trajectory meets the in­ turn-on time that offers more energy flexibility than a larger heat flux (i.
door constraints under the MPC control strategy. The percentage of time e., 55 ◦ C), which allowed a shorter average daily charging time (i.e., 4.0
the indoor temperature going beyond the temperature bounds was h).
0.32% for the heavyweight building, 0.48% for the mediumweight and For the evaluation of the impact of occupancy patterns on the STES
0.48% for the lightweight building, which had a higher comfort viola­ performance, an FH inlet temperature of 45 ◦ C was set. As mentioned in
tion as compared with mediumweight and heavyweight buildings. The the previous section, typical residential building occupancy heat gains
findings are as expected and reasonable because the low insulation of profiles were simulated to assess its effect on the energy flexibility
the building tends to result in a higher indoor temperature variation offered by STES. The results were also compared with constant internal
because of the low thermal capacitance of the thermal mass [16,26,28]. heat gains and no internal heat gains in order to assess its importance
In terms of how this affects the energy cost (Fig. 9b), the average when evaluating such systems. Simulations were conducted for a
electricity price used by a heavyweight building was 16.75 GBP pence/ mediumweight building set with the three heat gains profiles. The
kWh, 16.15 GBP pence/kWh for mediumweight and 18.5 GBP pence/ comfort violation was 0.6% for building with realistic occupant-related
kWh for lightweight. It should be noted that the average dynamic price internal heat gains, 0.74% for building with constant internal heat gains
is for the specific simulation period. Under the proposed MPC control and 0.15% for building without internal heat gains. The average price
strategy, the average consumed electricity price of heavyweight and used by the building with realistic internal heat gains was 16.3 GBP
mediumweight buildings were lower than that of lightweight building. pence/kWh. They were 16.5 and 16.8 GBP pence/kWh for the buildings
Besides, the mediumweight building had a lower average electricity with constant internal heat gains and no internal heat gains. Besides, a
price than the heavyweight building. As the mediumweight building lower electricity price used by the building with internal heat gains in­
consumed more low-price energy than the heavyweight and lightweight dicates that the internal heat gains charged the thermal mass and
buildings (Fig. 9c). contributed to the energy flexibility offered by the proposed STES sys­
Furthermore, the mediumweight building also had the shortest tem. The results confirmed that the internal heat gains could reduce
average daily charging time (heavyweight: 4.15 h; mediumweight: 3.75 electricity costs under MPC strategy with no comfort violations, and
h; lightweight: 11.75 h) among the three buildings with different ther­ hence must be taken into account in the development of MPC. Internal
mal mass. Looking at the amount of energy charge (Fig. 9), the medi­ heat gains’ contribution to heating energy saving was also confirmed by
umweight has the highest average heat charge based on the simulated studies [70,71]. While the impact of occupancy on the residential case
periods (heavyweight: 15.67 kW; mediumweight: 16.26 kW; light­ study was not significant, it should be further evaluated for buildings or
weight: 10.21 kW). Consequently, with similar average heating energy spaces with higher occupancy and internal heat gains.
requirements (heavyweight: 126.06 kW daily average; mediumweight:
122.48 kW daily average), mediumweight could shorten the daily
heating charging times. The results are consistent with the study of Xue 5.3. Effect of future climate conditions on STES performance
et al. [8]. Their results showed that with the same preheating periods for
light, medium, and heavy-weight buildings, medium-weight buildings This section aims to evaluate how the changing climate conditions in
shifted most of their energy to off-peak times with the highest storage the future would affect the storage performance of STES. Four simula­
efficiency. The heavy weighted envelope requires a longer charging time tions were carried out to compare the storage performances during
than the medium weighted envelope [68]. Thus, the heavyweight contemporary, 2030, 2050 and 2080 periods. The result (Fig. 11) pro­
building offers less energy flexibility under stochastic hourly dynamic vides insight into the influence of climate change on STES performance
price than the mediumweight building, which has relatively big thermal by comparing the energy shifting ability of contemporary and future
capacitance and medium time constant [69]. years. The mediumweight building was chosen for the simulation of the
residential building under different climate conditions. Simulation re­
5.2. Comparison of the impact of setpoints, FH inlet temperatures and sults during the typical winter week periods (23rd November – 7th
occupancy patterns December) were compared and the realistic weekly internal heat gains’
profile was applied. FH inlet temperature was set to 45 ◦ C.
For comparison, the simulation results of the mediumweight build­ The proposed MPC controlled the indoor temperatures well within
ing were used for the analysis. The comfort violations for the two stra­ the temperature bounds with comfort violations for contemporary,
tegies were 0.56% for strategy 1 and 2.44% for strategy 2 during 2030, 2050 and 2080 at 0.60%, 0.00%, 0.00% and 0.45%. The total
occupied periods (Fig. 10a). Strategy 1 had a more satisfactory indoor energy usage for contemporary, 2030, 2050 and 2080 were 281 kWh,
temperature trajectory in line with the setpoints. Low-price energy 279 kWh, 263 kWh and 243 kWh. The results of energy demand based
usage strategy 1 had a 3% increase (from 41.64% to 44.96%) compared on price usage intervals are shown in Fig. 11which highlights that the
to strategy 2, while the total electricity cost for the two strategies is predicted future weather conditions would lead to heating energy
similar. Thus, under the MPC control strategy, the strategy with a higher reduction and an increased in low-price energy usage because of the
tolerance of indoor temperature during unoccupied periods used a increased ambient temperature. Future systems calls for the introduc­
higher proportion of low-price energy based on similar total electricity tion of integrated storage technologies because of the increased appli­
cost. cation of RES in the supply system [72]. Thus, an increased STES
Then we evaluated the impact of the floor heating system’s operation performance for heating periods under climate change would be one of
on the energy shifting performance. Inlet temperatures were set to 35 ◦ C, the main considerations in the integration of energy storage system. The
45 ◦ C and 55 ◦ C. For this evaluation, the energy shifting ability of influence of the changing outdoor conditions on the energy shifting and
mediumweight thermal mass under different FH inlet temperatures were energy use price usage should be evaluated for other types of buildings
compared (Fig. 10b). This will assess the performance of STES with with different characteristics and operations.

12
Z. Wei and J. Calautit Energy 269 (2023) 126791

Fig. 9. (a) Indoor temperatures with MPC control strategy, (b) energy cost for the three thermal mass, and (c) heat charged from the FH system to the floor element.

5.4. Rooftop solar PV system integration with STES and MPC 29.50 GBP pence electricity cost. Because the usage of PV energy was
real-time, a wastage of solar energy during heating system turn-off times
The mediumweight building was chosen to evaluate the contribution occurs. Thus, if an active storage system is included, the energy shifting
of the rooftop PV system to the energy flexibility offered by STES system. ability could be increased. With a better design of energy storage units,
The integrated model simulation results were compared for the typical PV penetration in the supply could reach 5% [73]. In this scenario,
winter week periods. The impact of the addition of the rooftop PV sys­ 11.98 kWh among 239.60 kWh for the two-week heating energy demand
tem on the heating energy flexibility was evaluated. The system was of the building with a rooftop PV system installed[74]. Investment costs
based on an FH system with 45 ◦ C inlet temperature. The result high­ of RES have been dropping, and the RES penetration in the supply could
lights the potential of using rooftop PV panels for energy conservation in lower the spot prices and should be considered in the development of
the case of high penetration of RES in the future. The comfort violation price responsive MPC strategies [75].
was 0.30% for both cases. The average electricity price used by the
building without a PV panel was 16.5 GBP pence/kWh, while it was 6. Conclusions and future works
16.05 GBP pence/kWh for the building with rooftop PV installed.
Simulation results (Fig. 12) show that the rooftop PV panel could This study investigated the impact of building configuration and
contribute to the increased low-price energy usage under the proposed operation on a low-temperature heating energy storage performance.
MPC control strategy. The configurations explored included the building thermal mass, under-
For a two weeks simulation, a total of 22.79 kWh PV electrical energy floor heating inlet temperature, heating setpoint strategy, occupancy
was generated by the installed PV panel. 1.34 kWh real-time PV elec­ patterns and internal heat gains. A coupled modelling approach was
trical energy could be used for a floor heating system and only covers introduced, which simulated a building with STES and a price respon

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Z. Wei and J. Calautit Energy 269 (2023) 126791

Fig. 10. (a) Electricity price usage of setpoint strategy 1 and strategy, (b) electricity price usage of different FH inlet temperatures, (c) electricity usage by price for
the room with realistic, constant and no internal heat gains.

Fig. 11. The price usage by mediumweight building of contemporary and future years for the evaluated period.

Fig. 12. Electricity energy usage by the buildings without PV and with PV installed for the evaluated period.

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Z. Wei and J. Calautit Energy 269 (2023) 126791

sive model predictive control (MPC). The model was verified/validated the work reported in this paper.
against numerical and experimental data, and good agreement was
observed between the results. The result confirmed that mediumweight Data availability
thermal mass and a medium-temperature (45 ◦ C) under-floor heating
inlet temperature provided a higher energy shifting ability under a No data was used for the research described in the article.
price-responsive MPC control strategy.
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case study of a floor heating system coupled to a heat pump. Energy Build. 2012;
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The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence

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