TOPIC: Business Disruption Prediction Framework (BDPF): Decision-Making at

Higher Levels of Public Sector Organization by Promoting AI-Adoption and

Businesses Resilience

Project Summary
Public sector organizations are increasingly adopting Artificial Intelligence (AI) to
improve efficiency, enhance service quality and promote policy-making capabilities.
However, the uptake of AI practices in Pakistan’s public sector organizations is
relatively slow because leadership at higher level of the organization are hesitant in
adoption of AI-related practices and frameworks in decision-making processes. With
rising disruptions in the form of COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, floods,
droughts, social unrest, economic distress, privacy breaches, technology breakdowns
and others - the adverse impact of disruptions on businesses has been quite significant.
Therefore, this experimental research is aimed at introducing a Business Disruption
Prediction Framework (BDPF) embedded with a Deep Learning Engine (DLE) AI
tool in the Ministry of Commerce that learns from past decisions and subsequent
consequences. Additionally, this paper aims 1) to assess the impact of BDPF on
earlier decision-making at higher levels of public organization 2) to identify the extent
to which BDPF facilitates the quality and efficiency of decision-making at higher
levels of public organization 3)to determine the impact of BDPF on earlier detection
of disruption 4) to estimate the extent to which BDPF assists in building public
organization resilience. Key intervention of the project includes identification of
organization decision making mechanisms, deployment of Business Disruption
Prediction Framework (BDPF), Deep Engine Learning (DLE), awareness sessions,
trainings, and ethical usage of AI. This study seeks to contribute to the existing
literature on Artificial Intelligence, Public Administration and Information
Technology. Additionally, the results of this study will provide practical approach to
public organization in incorporating AI-based framework for improved decision-
making at higher levels of public organization to build resilience against disruptions.

Research Objectives

⚫ To assess the impact of BDPF on earlier decision-making at higher levels of

public organization
⚫ To identify the extent to which BDPF facilitates the quality and efficiency of
decision-making at higher levels of public organization
⚫ To determine the impact of BDPF on earlier detection of disruption
⚫ To estimate the extent to which BDPF assists in building public organization
resilience

Research Question

1. What is the impact of BDPF on earlier decision-making at higher levels of public

organization?
2. What is the impact of BDPF on earlier detection of disruption?
3. Does BDPF facilitates the quality and efficiency of decision-making at higher
levels of public organization?
4. What is the extent to which BDPF builds resilience of public organization?

Hypothesis

H1 AI-based BDPF positively impacts decision-making at higher levels of public

organization
H2 AI-based BDPF negatively impacts decision-making at higher levels of public
organization
H3 BDPF positively impacts the efficiency of decision-making at higher levels of
public organization
H4 BDFP positively impacts quality of decision-making at higher levels of public
organization
H5 BDPF positively impacts the organizational resilience towards disruptions

LITERATURE REVIEW
According to the AI Government Readiness Index, the South and Central region is
registered globally with second-lowest average having a score of 40.17 (Oxford
Insights, 2023). The region further exhibits a considerable range of 44.46 which is the
fourth-highest in the world and similar to that of the Middle East, North Africa and
Pacific regions (Oxford Insights, 2023). Whereas Pakistan ranking on AI
Government Readiness Index is 92nd (Oxford Insights., 2023) and its position out of
139 countries on Networked Readiness Index (NRI) is 90th which determines the
digital acceleration across the globe (Network Readiness Index, 2023).
Unfortunately, Pakistan is behind other well-performing countries like USA, Turkey,
China, Malaysia and Russia which have far better ranking (World Economic Forum,
2023). However, despite the slow AI adoption pace, the government of Pakistan has
undertaken initiatives for instance, the 4.0 Industrial Revolution by fostering
digitalization via “Vision 2025” laid out in “Digital Pakistan Policy 2018”.

Public Sector plays a significant role in the development and uptake of Artificial
Intelligence (AI). In environments of high uncertainty and frequent disruptions,
organizations in public sector have become increasingly interested in incorporating
the usage of data science and AI capabilities to deliver policy outcomes with greater
efficiencies. Where organizations can be referred to as the “networks of decisions”
that are structured in a way that it leads to attainment of the best organizational goals.
These disruptions include COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, floods, earthquakes,
forest fires, cybersecurity breaches, technological breakdowns and economic
fluctuations all of which significantly impacted businesses globally (Unhelkar &
Gonsalves, 2020). Where disruptions are “a low-probability, high-impact event that
threatens the viability of the organization and is characterized by ambiguity of cause,
effect, and means of resolution, as well as by a belief that decisions must be made
swiftly” (Pearson & Clair, 1998). Additionally, the inherent future unpredictability
and disruptions requires leadership to develop as such strategies directed at
envisioning future opportunities and contemplate potential challenges while being
backed by tools and technologies (Mikhaylov et al., 2018). However, most of the
debate tends to position government either in the the place of “regulatory actor” or at
best “facilitator”. This framework sets out the conditions for private actors and
citizens to use AI in an ethical manner which leaves the alternative role of the public
sector as “first buyer” and direct beneficiary of AI take-up with its implementation
rather obscure, if not neglected. In other words, the current policy discourse
emphasizes on the governance “by” AI, instead of focusing on governance “with” AI
(Kuziemski & Misuraca, 2020). This leads to neglected and late adoption of AI by
the public sector organizations. AI-supported decision-making is rapidly evolving by
the transcending growth of new technologies (Brink et al., 2023). As the public
sector organizations in a country are primary enablers and users of Information
Technology (IT), there is an increased chance that Artificial Intelligence (AI)
adoption will benefit public-private coordination and transparency in its services
(Nazir & Gul, 2023). Additionally, public organizations can improve decision-
making effectiveness by incorporating AI-powered decision-making in order to
replace managers positioned at the operational and tactical levels, however, strategic
level decisions cannot be that easily automated due to higher uncertainty and
complexity involved at this level(Edwards et al., 2000).

Similarly, business related decision-making by the leadership at higher level of public

organization can positively impact innovation and change if the disruptions are
predicted earlier in time. Therefore, this research is aimed at introducing a Business
Disruption Prediction Framework (BDPF) embedded with a Deep Learning Engine
(DLE) AI tool (Unhelkar & Gonsalves, 2020) in the Ministry of Commerce that
learns from past decisions and subsequent consequences, is involved in making sense
of data, predicting disruptions, and assisting the leaders with business continuity. Its
functionality is based on automation, prediction, intuition and experience. Disruption
Categories include technology breakdowns, cybersecurity breaches, natural and
societal catastrophes, and others (uncategorized). Furthermore, AI-based engines
provide guidance and suggestions and the human-expertise (NI) undertakes the actual
decisions. Actions and its consequences are required to be fed back to the AI-based
engine. Consequently, deployment of this AI-based framework will improve decision-
making at higher levels of public organization by efficiently handling business
disruptions and ensuring business resilience. This study seeks to contribute to the
existing literature on AI leadership and make significant contribution to the
disciplines of Public Administration and AI. Additionally, the results of this study
will provide practical approach to public organization in incorporating AI-based
framework for improved decision-making at higher levels of public organization to
build resilience.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Research Design
An experimental research will be conducted to test the impact of AI-based
intervention in enhancing decision-making at higher level of public organization. AI-
based intervention consists of Business Disruptive Predictive Framework (BDPF)
supported by Deep Learning Engine (DLE) AI tool which incorporates past
experiences and subsequent consequences. Additionally, the study will have a two
groups; a experimental group and a control group. Experimental group will be
provided proper awareness sessions and training whereas the control group will serve
as the baseline for comparison.
Participants
This research would be conducted in Ministry of Commerce, Islamabad. Our
population contains top managers and executives in the ministry who are readily
involved in decision-making at higher level of the organization.
Sample Size & Sampling Technique
Study sample size is of 300 respondents and unit of analysis is individual. Purposive
sampling technique will be deployed to reach the targeted audience. Moreover, top
managers and executives from the Ministry of Commerce will be given awareness and
training sessions with regards to DLE and Business Disruptive Predictive Framework.
Furthermore, the sampling frame includes top managerial employees and executives
of Ministry of Commerce.
Data Collection
Instruments & Procedure
Data will be conducted via self-administered questionnaire from the top managers and
executives of the selected ministry. Survey instrument to measure AI-adoption is
taken from the research article “Why aren’t organizations adopting virtual worlds?”
14 items will be used to study AI-adoption by Ministry of Commerce. To measure
decision making from the top managers and executives of the organization, 34 items
will be taken from Decision Making Questionnaire (M.L. Sanz de Acedo Lizarraga et
al., 2009). A longitudinal survey design questionnaire will be used. Prior to the
introduction of AI-based intervention, a baseline survey will be carried out and
afterwards, a post-study survey will be conducted for a duration of 6 months to check
the results of the intervention. Afterwards, correlational analysis will be applied and
collected data will be analyzed via ANOVA.

Table 1: Project Interventions

No. Interventions No. of Activities

1. Baseline Survey 1
Identification of 6-7
Existing Decision
making
mechanism
2. Awareness 2
 Sessions
3. Training Sessions 5
4. Focus Group 5
Discussions (Top
managers,
Executives and
technical staff)
5. Feedback & Q/A 1
Session
6. Installation of 1
BDPF
7. Education/Training 30
Material
(Pamphlets, digital
repository, e-book
etc.)
8. Post-study survey 1
9. Research 1
Publication

Baseline Survey
A baseline survey will be conducted to understand the extent which organizational
adoption of AI has been before introduction of AI-based intervention. Additionally,
the survey will explore the extent to which AI has been used in the public
organization for decision-making at the higher level and to gather the perspectives of
top managers and executives of the Ministry of Commerce.
Identification of Decision-Making Mechanisms
This step will withdraw results from baseline survey and the FGDs to analyze the
existing decision-making mechanisms and understand the working of organization.
The identification will later on help in the deployment of BDPF smoothly in the
organizational routine decision-making at higher level of the Ministry of Commerce.
Additionally, it will assist in the diagnosis of problematic areas and loop holes in the
decision-making.
Focus Group Discussions
Focus Group Discussions will be conducted with top managers and executive of the
public organization to understand the perspectives, concerns and respondents
awareness regarding AI. These focus group discussions will gather responses which
will be utilized alongside the deployment of BDPF.
Awareness Session
Awareness Session will be conducted with top managers and executives of Ministry
of Commerce. Session will enlighten regarding the significance to incorporate AI in
decision-making and in different areas of the organization for efficient, effective and
quality decision-making. Introduction to BDPF will be given. It will further bring to
the attention of participants the pros and cons of using AI. Additionally, participants
will be sensitized regarding ethical usage of AI.
Training Sessions (5)
Top manager and executives will be trained to use BDPF with the help of a trainer.
Proper working, process and operation of BDPF will be explained along with the
process of generating instructions to the AI. Complete guide to using BDPF will be
provided and full-fledged training of participants will be ensured. Sessions will also
seek to address the questions of participants.
Feedback & Q/A Session
Though a relatively small session, this session will seek to address the questions of
participants regarding the AI-based intervention and address any further confusions
they might have regarding BDPF usage and its implications. Furthermore, responses
of participants will be collected regarding the quality of awareness and training
sessions. Additionally, their suggestion and recommendations will be taken note of.
Education/Training Material
Materials will contain e-guide to BDPF, pamphlets, standees, information notes,
banners etc. These materials will be used by and provided to the participants to make
the sessions interactive and more informative.
Post-Study Survey
Post Study Survey will be conducted after 4 months of AI-based intervention. This
survey will seek to collect the responses directed at addressing the impact of BDPF on
the decision-making process at higher level of Ministry of Commerce. The results
from this survey will help us analyze the extent to which our intervention has been
successful or unsuccessful and the reasons behind it.
Research Publication
The research will be published in a notable and recognized journal with high impact
factor for the dissemination of knowledge to the masses. This study will serve as basis
for researchers, policy makers, stakeholders, nutritionists and other field specialists to
build their researches on.

Table 2: Timeline

Duration in Months
Activities 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Team Formation
(e.g hiring of
enumerators,
onborading
trainers)
Baseline Survey
Focus Group
 Discussions

Awareness
Sessions
Trainings
Feedback & Q/A
Session
Installation of
BDPF
Education/Training
material
Post-study Survey
Research
Publication

Ethical Considerations
Data collected will be used solely for research purposes. Questionnaires were
distributed in public organization and were filled voluntarily by the respondents. Prior
consent of participants were taken and research agenda was thoroughly explained.
Anonymity and confidentiality of participants data was ensured.
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