Version 1.

3 Updated June 2007

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

 LEGAL NOTICE
Disclaimer and Terms of Use Agreement.
The author and publisher of this manual and the
accompanying materials have used their best efforts in
preparing this manual. The author and publisher make no
representation or warranties with respect to the accuracy,
applicability, fitness or completeness of this manual. The
information in this manual is strictly for educational
purposes. Therefore if you wish to apply the ideas
contained in this manual, you are taking full responsibility
for your actions. EVERY EFFORT HAS BEEN MADE TO
ACCURATELY REPRESENT THIS PRODUCT AND IT’S
POTENTIAL. Even though this industry is one of the few
where one can write their own cheque in terms of
earnings, there is no guarantee that you will earn money
using the techniques and ideas in this material. Earning
potential is entirely dependant on the person using this
manual, ideas and techniques. This is not purported as a
“get rich quick” scheme. Your level of success depends on
the time you devote to the techniques suggested. I cannot
guarantee your success or income level, nor am I
responsible for any of your actions.
Many factors will be important in determining your actual
results and no guarantees are made that you will achieve
results similar to mine or anybody else’s. In fact no
guarantees are made that you will achieve any results
from the ideas and techniques in this material.
The author and publisher disclaim any warranties (express or implied), merchantability, or fitness for
any particular purpose. The author and publisher shall in no event be held liable to any party for any
direct, indirect, punitive, incicental or other consequential damages arising directly or indirectly from
any use of this material which is provided “as is” without warranties.

This manual is © copyrighted by Ian Erskine/ Profitpoint. No part of this manual may be copied or
changed in any format, sold, or used in any other way than what is outlined in this manual under any
circumstances.

© Ian Erskine, Profit point. All Rights Reserved.

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

Introduction – About Me & about the update.

Firstly thank you for buying this manual and I hope it

brings you the same lifestyle I have developed from using
the very same strategy in this book. Please read it
thoroughly, maybe twice and then apply the principles
firstly by paper trading and then in full. All I ask is that
you don’t deviate and customise for your own needs and
that you use discipline to follow the method exactly.

When I first sold this manual at the start of 2007 I knew

nothing about life on the internet outside what I did which
was use a couple of gambling sites. I also knew very little
about the real world. My job before I did this full time only
ever kept me in contact with one type of person and
generally I was integrating with them when they were in
their leisure time.

I also did not understand fully what I do myself. I do it on

autopilot. When I got asked if I would sell what I do I
wrote the first edition of this manual, unaware that I had
left detail out, of things I just did when trading without
thinking about it, as it is second nature to me. I fully
understand that readers of this book may be new to all of
this so I have attempted to cover these points at the end
of the book in a FAQ section which covers questions which
have arisen from online sessions with current clients and
from the vast amount of emails I receive.

Further to all this I did not realise the extent that thievery
has grown in the internet world. I have not purchased a
product or E-Book myself or looked at gambling systems
in great detail. Since launching my site I get a request
almost daily to sell a gambling product to my customers
and take a commission. I ask them to send it over the
ones that do send are rubbish and the ones that don’t I
know are rubbish. I have taken to scouring around
occasionally and there is a whole lot of c**p out there.

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

I will have losing days of course and how I/you react to
them will ultimately determine how successful you are.
One thing I pride myself on is the fact that I am honest,
approachable and want you to win. If you mail me after a
losing day and have a go, I will stand my ground. If you
want help I will help. From this moment on we are a team
and one that long term cannot fail to be profitable. You
have not brought a book and been hung out to dry. Those
of you who stick with me will realise over time I am a
decent bloke if I say so myself and you will benefit.

So lets get on.

I am gambler – Yes that is me. I have always searched for

ways to make money the easy way. As a result I lost over
£20,000 on horses following one system after another. I
then started poker and lost more fortunes
(although I am quite good now). All my life I chased from
one form of gambling to another and guess what – I
failed. You only need to look around to see who benefits
from gamblers, I go to Vegas regularly, the hotels there
cost billions to build and maintain, someone has to pay for
it, the gamblers who throw their hard earned cash into
machines, roulette tables and craps table etc. In England
we have a saying “do you ever see a poor bookmaker”,
the answer of course is no. Gambling is a massive
industry and the bookmakers feed off peoples desire to
earn a fast buck. However there are a few who make a
living from gambling and I hope that like me you will now
become one. Winning at gambling takes discipline, greed
is your greatest enemy, I have won ten pounds but I want
to win £20 or £30, eventually this mentality sends you
broke.

I am not a gambler – yes that is me. Now I no longer

gamble, well except for my little trips away, but I now do
not gamble to make a living, I shrewdly trade. In the early
nineties a massive advantage was given to gamblers. We
were given via the internet the opportunity to become a
4

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

bookmaker, yes that’s right we could now take other
peoples bets and make money. Rather than go to
Ladbrokes to place my £10 at 3-1 on a horse I could now
do it online with another human being who I did not know
and the host site would see the winner was paid his
money less a small commission. This has been a pivotal
move in the gambling industry and I am one of many who
has seized the opportunity. I, in effect act now as
bookmaker and make a tidy living. The big difference is I,
unlike Ladbrokes, I do not have to offer bets on
everything, I can pick my moments carefully, take my
money and run with no overheads and best of all no tax.

I am going to set about teaching you to do exactly the

same over the next few pages but first a few rules.

FOOTBALL TRADING SYSTEM RULES

1. Discipline, Discipline, Discipline. You must have this

quality in abundance. Any form of gambling involves
emotion. I used to suffer mood swings when I lost and
then that would effect my judgement on further
transactions. I now control what I do within strict
guidelines. You will at some time experience a down
swing, it is part and parcel, keep motivated keep
repeating and you will be successful.

2. Stick to what we know. I have spent years trialing this

system and now use it as enclosed. I only trade on
football. You may think you can apply these methods to
other types of sport. My advice is don’t. I started
gambling on football years ago and this manual is the
result of thousands of transactions. If you follow football,
emotion must get out of the window, I am a season ticket
holder at a premiership club, however if I can make
money from a result including them which I don’t like, so
be it. Football now accounts for more gambling income in
the UK than any other sport. Most of these gamblers bet
with opinion and emotion, it is there money you will be

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

taking. We cannot have any opinion on the outcome of a
match at all.

3. Start at a level you can afford. When promises of large

incomes are made it is easy to try and short circuit things
to get there quicker. You are looking for a lifetime
changing income. I do this for quality of life as much as
money. I want to be able to spend time doing things other
than working. However it took me time to get here as it
will you. Start at a level you are comfortable with and
build up using other peoples money.

LET’S GET STARTED

Ok I have made some bold statements now it is time to

get you into action. As I said in effect you are going to
become a bookmaker, trading on one outcome, and one
outcome of a football match only, irrelevant of the teams
playing. Over the last 8 years only 22% of the worlds
football matches have ended in draws, therefore 78%
have ended in wins for one team. Of the 22% that ended
in draws only 7% have ended in goalless or 0-0 (nil nil)
draws. I apologise if I repeat myself but there may be
people reading this who know absolutely nothing about
football so I am going to explain things very simply, if you
are aware of all the terminology please bear with me.
The system I operate basically looks at a way to make
money on the 93% of matches that don’t end goalless. If
a match does I will lose but I will show you a way around
this so that you don’t lose much at all.
We are going to make you a bookmaker that offers the
draw and then makes money when the goals go in.

STEP 1 – OPENING OUR ACCOUNT

The first thing that you will need to do is to open an

account where you can make your transactions. You have
to have a Betfair Account. This can be found at
6

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

www.betfair.com. Betfair are an online betting exchange.
They allow you place a bet in the traditional way so if you
want to bet on horse you can, but they also allow you to
lay a bet, this basically means you can place your money
on something to lose. Yes that’s right you can bet on
losers. At Betfair you will see the following screen. Before
opening your account and it may pay you to watch the
demo which can be found by clicking the sports tab and
selecting the demo option on the top right underneath the
log in area.

I feel now is a good time to stress that Betfair is not a

bookmakers in it’s own right. It is purely a matching site
for people who want to place bets. As an example I want
to bet on Spurs to win the FA CUP at odds of 80-1. I need
someone in the world somewhere to take that bet, just
like I would have a tenner with someone down the pub. If
someone is prepared to Betfair matches us up
(anonymously) and takes a small percentage off the
winner for the service. Millions of pounds in matched in
bets every day on Betfair, so they earn a nice income
from it believe me. Why it is so crucial to me/us is that
because we are not fighting against a big bookmaker we
7

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

can gain an edge. Every now and then someone will offer
silly odds on football and we want to be ready to take
their money. I cover this at the end. But for now get
comfortable with the idea it is ordinary people who
determine the odds not a firm, and for every winner there
is a loser, so if I win £200,000 in a year, people all over
the country have lost that amount accumulatively

Your first step is to click Open account in the top left of

the screen.

From here you will have another window open on which

you enter all your personal information. About 2/3 down
the page you will be asked if you have a refer and earn
code. Please select YES and enter the following code
ENYYGEXPH.

As a final step you will be asked to make a deposit, there

are numerous options available including Paypal and
Neteller. I will leave solely to you to decide how much to
8

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

deposit after you have read the rest of the manual. In
future when you sign into Betfair you will log in on the top
right using your selected username and password.

I also have an account at Victorchandler.com as they offer

some good prices on the football.

For the rest of this manual I will be using however Betfair

for all examples.

STEP 2 – LOCATING OUR MARKET

The first thing we need to do is go to the sports tab at the

top of the page. We then need to look at the markets on
the LEFT. side of the page

As you can see I select all markets and then soccer. NOT
SOCCER FIXTURES.

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

When you click this a new menu will appear and the first
item will be coupons

On clicking this we will then arrive at our final menu

where we select OUR IN PLAY COUPON FOR THAT
DAY. It is vital that you select In-Play games only. We
want to be able to trade when the match is live so we will
need to note kick off times etc. Do not ignore the
importance of this.

So you can see from the above figure I have selected an

in play coupon for Monday’s matches.
This will present the following screen:-

10

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

Here you can see a list of matches predominantly with
teams I have never heard of. The most important part of
this screen is the three columns to the right of the teams
that contain figures. You will see the headings at the top
that contain the only three possible outcomes for the
games.

HOME – The home team (the first team listed on the left)
can win. You will see a Back column with Blue Numbers
and a Lay column with Pink Numbers. If we thought the
Home team would win we would click the back square,
that means we want to back them to win, if we thought
they would not win we would click the lay square. By
clicking this square we would have either the draw or the
away team winning in our favour but lose our money if
the home team won.

DRAW – Here we have the 2 outcomes we can back the

draw if we felt that was how the match will finish or lay
the draw if we felt that one of the two teams was going to
win the game. THIS IS WHERE YOU WILL CONDUCT ALL
OF YOUR BUSINESS.

AWAY – The away team (the second team listed on the

right) can win. Just the same as the outcome for Home
matches, we shall be ignoring both the home and away
columns.
11

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

Now we have to understand what the numbers in the
square means. As you can see they are listed as decimal
numbers. If we take one of the matches we can look in
more detail

Here we see the top match with the three outcomes and
the numbers. You will also note the kick off time listed
below the match, so this match kicks of at 3.00 pm
English time.
The numbers for the draw are back at 3.3 and lay 3.35. In
standard betting terms this converts to 2.3 to 1 and 2.35
to 1. So if I thought this match was going to end in a draw
I would click the blue back button and could stake £2 (the
minimum amount Betfair allow). If I was successful I
would get 2.3 times my stake back and my stake on top
so I receive 2.3 x 2 = £4.60 plus my £2 stake a total of
£6.60. Betfair will then deduct a small commission off
this, which is how they make their money. They only take
commission on the profit not your initial stake

THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH IS VERY IMPORTANT.

If I was going to lay the draw, so I felt the game would

have a result I would click the 3.35 pink lay square. This
now means that I am offering another Betfair user odds of
2.35 to 1 that the match will not be a draw. If I selected a
£10 stake and the match was a draw I would have to pay
that user 10 x 2.35 = 23.50. If however one of the teams
wins the game I receive his £10 less the small
commission. What you must note here is that I am in a
position that I can lose or pay out more than I can win.
This is the price you have to pay to have the fact that
78% of games end in a definitive result.

12

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

STEP 3 – Placing our initial trade

We are now in a position to place our initial trade. The

selection of matches we would trade on is simple. We are
going to trade in games in which the lay figure for the
draw is 4.2 or less. Therefore we are only prepared to risk
3.2 x the amount of money we want to win. It has taken a
long time for me to get to this exact figure and it proves
most profitable. It is very easy to see a top side such as
Chelsea playing a lower league side where obviously all
the statistics point at a Chelsea win. The draw figures in
such a game may be as high as 9.0. We know in our
hearts that the likelihood is a Chelsea win but anything
can happen in football and if that lower league side
equalises in the second half with a penalty, I do not want
to be risking 8 times my money which is what a lay figure
of 9.0 equates to. This is where discipline comes in.

So if we go back to our matches on the In Play coupon

We can see in the Pink lay column 6 out of the 8 matches

would fit with where I want to put my money. Now the
likelihood is I don’t want to trade all six I might only want
to trade 4 so I would select the 4 lowest of the 6. So I
13

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

would be looking to trade on matches 1,2,3 and 4.
Matches 5 and 8 do not qualify as they have lay figures of
4.5 and 5.8 respectively and I have removed matches 6
and 7 as they are the higher of the 6 qualifiers.

I would now click on each of these buttons in turn.

So here I have clicked the top button and entered £300 in

as my stake. In the box that pops up on the right hand
side of the page. You can see my liability, if I just left my
bet the liability (amount I could lose) would be £594. I
would have to give someone £594 if the match did end as
a draw and I receive £300 if the result is anything other
than a draw. You may note that this match has now
kicked off and has a green tick under the two teams which
says in play next to it, therefore the prices will change
from this point on as the game progresses. If I was happy
with this I would then click submit at the bottom. I then
repeat this process for the next 3 games. A vital point to
note is that you have to have the money available in your
account when placing your trade, to pay should it not
work out. That means I have to have the £594 available in
my account to pay if I get it wrong, so if you are trading
multiple matches be aware that this is the case. So if
starting out you just traded this match and were looking
to win £20 from this trade you must have about £40
available in your account.
Once I have placed all my initial trades I then sit and wait
for kick off times. I generally look at the In-Play coupon
14

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

first thing in the morning and most English mid-week
games are evening kick offs so I have the day to do as I
please. If you operate this when on holiday etc. just pay
attention to the kick off times.

STEP 4 – IN-PLAY TRADING

This is now the nuts and bolts of making money. We do

not want to place our trades and then sit and hope that
the result goes our way. By trading in play we can control
our destiny. Once the game kicks off the figures in the
boxes will change. If no goals are scored the price for the
draw will come down, that means the two figures will go
lower so if we take the match we are concentrating on
whilst I write this manual when we first look at it, it was
3.35 to lay the draw, when I entered my stake it had
come down to 2.98 and now at nearly half time it is 2.78
(you will have to take my word for this).
When something happens in the game the market will
suspend automatically.

So in the diagram above you can see two matches with

suspended markets. This happens when a goal is scored,
a penalty is awarded or a player is sent off. All these
factors can affect the outcome of the game and therefore
affect the prices that are available. If the home team
15

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

scores the likelihood of a draw becomes less so the price
for the draw will generally increase. It is here that we can
now look to make our money. When the suspended
market returns the on screen prices will vary and what we
do now is wait for the prices to go in our favour so we can
secure a market in which we cannot lose. I want to back
the draw at a greater price than I layed it- Period.

If you look at the graphic below and notice the price I

have circled.

You can now see that the price for the draw in the top
game is 8.0 in the back column and 8.8 in the lay column.
Compare this to our prices before the games kicked off
from our earlier graphic

Here the prices were 3.5 and 3.6 a considerable

difference.
This is where I can now make money. If I lay the draw
before the game at 3.6 I can now back the draw at 8.0
and win the trade whatever the result of the game.

16

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

Here is the example.

Lay the draw at 3.6 to win £100 say.

So here I am going to win £100 ( less Betfairs

commission) if the game is not a draw but I am risking
£260 if it is a draw – 100 x 2.6 = £260

However I can now back the draw myself at 8.0 or 7-1 in

true betting terms. I will back the draw for £50.

Now whatever happens I cannot lose. If the match ends in

a draw I have backed it at 8.0 or 7-1 for £50 meaning I
get 7 x £50 profit = £350 but lose £260 on my initial lay
transaction leaving me £90 profit.

If the match is not a draw I get my £100 lay from my

initial bet less my £50 for backing the draw = £50 profit.

I suggest you read through this a few times to get the full
grasp of it. Now as it happens this price changed as a late
goal was scored by Maritimo, you can see that the low
numbers in the back and lay prices for the home team
make them clear favourites. In this instance I would leave
my initial bet and take the £100 win. The more you use
the system the more you will learn when to trade off. I
suggest you start off by trading back as soon as possible
until you have built a bank up and can be a bit more risky.

As you can see if I repeat this process over 4/5 games a

day every day I can earn a tidy sum. Even nicking £20 a
time would give you £700 a week extra in your pocket. A
little and often is how to start. When you have a bank you
can play less but use bigger stakes. I would in real terms
probably have layed that game for £400-£500 and backed
it back for £100 - £200 returning a profit of about £300
either way the result went.
If we look at a price for another game on the slip to give
you a further example.

17

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

Here is the initial price for Grenoble v Le Havre

So before the game I lay it for my £100. If it is not a draw

I win my £100 and I am risking £205 if it is a draw. 2.05 x
my 100.

The game kicks of and here are the prices in the second
half.

Here you can see the draw available to Back at a massive

60.1 or 59 to 1 in standard terms. Clearly the home team
are in front and a draw is unlikely. I will back the draw by
clicking on the blue 60 now for just £10.
If the match is a draw I will now get 59 x £10 = £590 but
must pay out £205 for my initial lay bet so I will be in
profit to the tune of £385.

If the match is not a draw I will get my initial £100 lay bet
minus the £10 which loses for my back bet so I profit by
£90.

Now one final example from the same group of matches

Here is the pre match price for Stoke v Barnsley

18

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

So here I lay the draw for my £100 at 3.9 or 2.9 to 1. So
if it is a draw I pay out £290 and if it is not I win £100.

However in play the prices become 10 to back and 10.5 to

lay

I will now back the draw at 10.0 or 9-1 for £40. If the
match is not a draw I will get my initial £100 less the £40
I just backed making a profit of £60. If the match is a
draw I have £40 at 9-1 = 40 x 9 = £360 but I have to pay
out £290 for my lay leaving a profit of £70. I get £60 0r
£70 whatever the result.

How do I decide how much to stake when I back?

This is simple process. When you make your lay bet

initially note your liability, so in the last example it was
£290 if the match ended in a draw. What I do first is find
my break even figure The draw is available to back at
10.0 or 9-1. I divide my liability by this price so £290
divided by 9 = £33 in round figures. So if I back the draw
at 10.0 for £33 I will break even. I then put a smallish
amount on top of this to show a profit whatever the
result, REMEMBERING IT MUST COME OFF MY INITIAL LAY
BET.

This process is basically that I repeat time and time again.

19

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

Now we have to deal with the one outcome which can
cause us problems.

What if NO GOALS are scored

Clearly in this case the match is ending in a nil - nil draw.

We have layed the draw and the lack of a goal will mean
that the prices will not change so we cannot back at a
bigger price to make money.

Firstly don’t panic. Remember in the introduction I told

you only 5% of all matches have had a 0-0 result in the
last 8 years. Of all the Premiership matches played in
January 2007 only 3 ended 0-0. Football is a game of
goals, and as you can see from the above in just one
Monday evening coupon the opportunity to win money far
outweighs the odd 0-0 draw.

This is why we operate In-Play. If the match looks like

ending 0-0 we can still back the draw but at a smaller
price than we layed but this will limit our losses.
So if we take another of the matches off our coupon.
The initial price is as follows

So I lay the draw at 3.35 or 2.35 to 1 giving me a liability

of £235. (2.35 x 100)

Halfway through the second half their have been no goals

the match would appear to be petering out to a draw and
the prices available reflect the situation. They are now as
below

20

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

I can now back the draw at 2.92 or 1.92 -1 which is less
than I laid it for but at least by taking some action I can
control the amount of loss. I will back the whole £100 at
2.92. The match duly finishes in a draw I have to pay out
my initial liability which is £235, but I collect my back bet
of £192 (1.92 x my £100 stake) so I only lose £43 on the
match.

If we looked at the overall picture of all the above

examples.

I win £50 or £90 on the first game

I win £385 or £90 on the second game
I win £60 or £70 on the third game
I lose £43 on the last game.

At the absolute worst case scenario I must win £150 on

the night.

Now this is a rare occurrence because of my 95% cushion

that a goal will be scored. The advice of don’t panic is the
best I can give you. If you follow the above you cannot
fail to make money.

As an example here is roughly how I started to build my

bank up so that you can get an idea of where to start and
how soon you can make decent money.

I suggest a deposit of £500 into Betfair if you have it if

not don’t worry just deposit what you can afford and stake
accordingly.

Initially look to lay for £20, if you do this successfully 20

times you have earnt £400 less Betfair commission and
money used to stake back so you should have about £300
profit, so your bank of £500 is now £800

Now up you lay stake to £30 and again repeat 20 times

giving you a further £600 less the deductions say about
£450 and a bank of £1250. Now up your lay stake to £40
21

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

and you only need 10 trades giving you a further £400
(£300 after deductions) Bank now £1550. Now upto £50
and again 10 trades should produce about £380 net profit
and a bank of nearly £2000. Now up to £75 and a further
10 trades. By now your bank should be near the £2600
mark and you can up your stake to £100 and trade a bit
less say 10 a week for a few weeks. Once you get you
bank upto £5000 you can start trading at £150 to £200.

Believe me this does not take long. I now trade about 10-
12 games a week at £300-£500 a time.

The secret is to start small, get proficient at working out

the numbers and increase your stake gradually whilst
getting involved in less action.

Points to Note

Firstly you do not need to know anything about football, I

do not know anything about half the teams I trade on I
work solely on the numbers in front of me. I trade all year
round as Betfair now cover worldwide soccer. In the
summer you can switch to either a major championship
such as the World Cup or Australian soccer

Secondly do not follow this system by relying on the radio

or the television to get your information regarding goals
etc. You need to be alert to the numbers on the screen.
Both TV and Radio broadcasts are a few seconds behind
realtime. Betfair will suspend immediately a goal is scored
although you have not seen it on you television yet. Use a
broad band connection and follow your Betfair screen for
developments. This does not mean you have to stay glued
to it, just have it handy and be alert. Football is over 90
minutes so you have plenty of time.

I mentioned at the start I have a Victor Chandler account.

They offer some in-play football. I NEVER LAY WITH
22

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

THEM. I always lay on Betfair, however I may back with
Victor Chandler. It may pay to have their football betting
open in a separate explorer tab so that you can check
their prices, Betfair may be offering 8.0 (7-1) whilst VC
are offering 8-1. A point like this now and then makes a
huge difference to your profits.

I recommend starting by paper trading, just follow a few

games and imagine you had money involved. Write down
what you would lay at, what you back at and see the
results. One thing you will learn is not too be too hasty
when backing. Quite often the price will increase greatly
over a few minutes. For example if you look at the graphic
on page 16 which features the Grenoble game, you will
see on the right where I was getting prepared to back the
draw at 11.0. I waited and in just 4 minutes it was up to
60.0. Whilst there is the fear that a goal may be scored
and your chance may be gone, my experience tells me
this is rarely the case and just waiting a minute or so can
make all the difference.

Also whilst paper trading have your Betfair screen open

and navigate your way around it by clicking on the
appropriate buttons but never submitting your bets. This
way when you start you will be ready to fire on all
cylinders.

If you want to follow the scores of games you can by

going on the Homepage of Victorchandler.com. 2/3 of the
way down on the left hand side is a Football results
button. If you click this you will have a new window open.
In here you can select Live Scores from all over the world
and keep an eye on what is going on.

All that is left for me to say is good luck with it. Do not sit
and do nothing, you have purchased this to make money
so put it to use, if you are unsure mail me. I cannot
guarantee your success but hopefully you have seen what
is possible. You still however have to put a bit of work in
yourself.
23

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

My biggest pieces of advice to you are

Don’t get Greedy

Stay Disciplined

Don’t Panic.

I truly wish you all the best, if you make a fortune and
want to take me to Vegas feel free.
And finally for those of you who are unsure a quick
clarifying of two terms which will control, your life

Back – when you think something is going to

happen you back it. So backing the draw means you
want a draw

Lay – when you think something is not going to

happen you lay it. So laying the draw means you
don’t want to see a draw.

Good Luck.

\tÇ XÜá~|Çx

Ian Erskine.

P.S I suggest you read this 2 or 3 times to familiarise your

self with it

24

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

FAQ – Updated section inspired by the users of his
manual!

I never realised the effect of selling this ebook to a few

people would have and I have met some lovely people
online all of whom are using this to make money. I have
tried below to cover more information and will look to do
this 2 or 3 times a year to provide a better service for you
all. I have not placed the queries in any particular order
but as they have sprung in my head. Also I apologise if
the English is not great I am no author, I am a TRADER.

Firstly I want to give some statistics from the 2006/2007

season that has just finished.

English Premier League 380 games played

32 0-0 draws = 8.42%

Spanish La Liga 380 games played

37 0-0 draws = 9.73%

German Bundesliga 306 games played

23 0-0 draws = 7.5%

Italy Ligue 1 380 games played

34 0-0 draws = 8.94%

As you can see I have highlighted the 4 biggest European

Leagues and over 1400 games of football in which a total
of only 8.71% of the games finished 0-0.
This percentage never varies from year to year or league
to league (if anything it is lower, worldwide nearer 6%), I
hear people say “oh Italians they have loads of 0-0 draws”
it is rubbish all the major leagues in the world throw out
the same ratio.

25

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

I can tell you the figures for 1-1 draws are similar so a
maximum total of about 17% of games end 0-0 and 1-1.
If the result is 0-0 we lose our money (but we have traded
some out to reduce the loss). If the game is a score draw
we lose if the goals come at an awkward time, so if they
did that half the time (which is unlikely) that is still only
about 12% losing results. The figures for 2-2 and 3-3 are
negligible and far less likely to be a problem as the
trading out opportunities increase.

So what does the above tell me, it tells me that LONG

TERM and this has become my favourite phrase, I cannot
lose operating this system. In an ideal world I could lay
the draw in every game and leave it and win, but we do
not live in an ideal world as not every game is available
and I need to be able to manage my trades IN-PLAY.

This management has thrown up some scenarios over the

last few months which I need to try and address and
simplify for you telling you what I do in a particular
circumstance.

Betfair only put a selection of games IN-PLAY. Obviously

in the autumn, winter and spring months we are in
football season and trading opportunities are rife. In the
summer months opportunities exist but are less apparent.

Betfair do not have the power to put games on the coupon

that they know are going to finish 0-0 or score draws, not
even they are that smart, I have tried to ask them their
criteria for selecting games but met with no response.
This brings me onto my first FAQ

Ian, how do you pick your matches?

This is probably my most asked question. I select matches

based on statistical odds of games I believe will end in a
RESULT. By result I mean a home or away win. Now I am
not a prophet and of course I will get it wrong, but I try
and give myself the best chance of winning that trade.
26

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

Because of my betting bank ( I leave £12,000 in Betfair at
the end of each month withdrawing the profit) I can trade
higher stakes on less games, thus getting the odds in my
favour. I stick by my advice in this manual of trading
games under 4.2 and trading more games when starting
out. However if you are going to trade a game, a little bit
of research into the two teams may help you. It does not
take long on Google to find all the information you need.
What information is relevant? Historical information
regarding the two teams, for some reason this throws up
the best success rate of all. Football teams have bogey
teams. As much as it pains me to say it Spurs could not
beat Chelsea for 20 years and I have made 100% income
from games between these two teams over the last 4
years.

Average goals between the two teams, simply look at the

goals for and goals against in the league table and the
league tables of previous years and see how many goals
the teams averaged per game. For example Spurs play
Chelsea, Spurs have played 20 games and scored 40
goals, they average 2 goals scored per game, Chelsea
have played 20 games and scored 50 goals, they average
2.5 goals a game. A check of the recent games between
the two teams shows me there have been no draws in
four years, I am starting to like my chances of it not being
0-0 and unlikely to be a draw. This is not difficult it is
simple brief research.
Is the team at full strength? A quick check on the clubs
website will tell you if there are any injuries which
obviously would weaken a team.
How many draws have they had away and at home?
I hope this gives you an idea of the process I go through
when picking games. If I am trading a game and therefore
sending it to you via email, you can be assured I have
done that for you. I manually research every game, I do
not use a computer programme. How can that tell me
Groclin in Poland are resting 4 players because they have
a cup final coming up.

27

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

Please be advised the games I send out are the exact
games I trade, I am not responsible for your choices or
losses if these games don’t go our way. I am not
personally kicking the ball. They are the matches I choose
to trade based on MY RESEARCH

For my research I use

www.bbc.co.uk
www.futbol24.com (great for following the games as you
trade, play an audible sound when goals are scored)
www.goalslive.com
All club websites e.g. www.tottenhamhotspur.com
National Football Union Websites e.g www.theFA.com
Any other website that helps such as wikipedia

When do you trade out of a drawing game?

I do not want to sound flash at all I write it as I see it. I

am in a position to take more risks than most. If I lose a
trade I still have a bank behind me so it is absorbed fairly
easily and I know the statistics mean LONG TERM I cannot
lose. I appreciate a lot of you are starting out with small
sums of money and a couple of losses dents your
confidence as well as your bank.

I will trade out of a game at 2.0 if my feeling is it is

headed for a draw. Generally that will be if it is 0-0.
Statistics show that more games that are 0-0 after 70
minutes finish that way than the other way round. It is
easy to get into the psychology that there have been no
goals so there must be one before the end. Remember
28

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

only just over 8% of games finish 0-0, these are usually
drab affairs and if a game is that way at 70 mins there is
a fair chance it will stay that way.

I will look if it is 0-0 at half time at the scoring records of

the two teams, again more research but does not take
long. How many times have the teams involved scored in
the last 20 minutes. Man Utd and Chelsea are renowned
for late goals. Liverpool on the other hand score very few
in the last part of the game. This is not guesswork it is a
factual representation of how teams play football, Chelsea
and Man Utd will attack if it is 0-0. Liverpool have a more
conservative style of play with a “don’t let a goal in”
attitude first.

However if it is a score draw at 70 minutes I look upon

the game differently. If the game is 1-1 or 2-2 the game
has had goals and statistically it is likely there will be
more. Now in this instance I generally stay in the games –
PLEASE UNDERSTAND THAT IS NOT MY ADVICE TO YOU –
that is the process I operate because I know that if it
stays a draw I can absorb that loss and LONG TERM I
cannot lose. However your approach may be different if
you are bank building and if it goes wrong you do not
want to lose full liability.

So for those of you building your banks if we trade out at

2.0 regardless of 0-0 or a score draw there are still only
17% of games that we lose on and we cut our losses at
that point.

For an example

You lay £20 at 4.2 your liability is £64 or you win £20
29

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

0-0 the market hits 2.0. You now back the draw for £40.

I back at DOUBLE my stake.

The scenario now is if the game stays 0-0 I have reduced

my liability to £24 so that is my loss

If a team scores and the match ends in a win for one of

the teams, I lose my £40 back bet but WIN my original
£20 lay, losing £20 on the game.

Now what happens if we get a run of draws. I have given

this a lot of thought over the last few months and tested
different scenarios including backing at 2.0 with double
stake for 0-0 and single stake for score draws and vice
versa etc.

Here is the best plan I came up with, you may or may not
like it but LONG TERM I consider it to be best. For Elite
Club members when the website is up and running I am
going to operate this method off a bank of £250 and detail
it every day in a blog for you. We will have a little
competition to see if I can be beat.

In all the time I have been trading I have never had four
drawing matches consecutively. I have only had 3 twice.
So the best system in my opinion is a cover to win
system. If I lose a trade, I will increase my stake on the
next trade. So in the example above I lost £24 as it was a
draw. I will increase my next trade by 50% of that loss.
So the next game I lay at £32.

This gives me this outcome assuming a difficult game

again

0-0 market hits 2.0. I back at DOUBLE my lay so at £64

30

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

I now have

Lay £32 at 4.2 (note I am using top end figure all the
time) – Liability = £102.40

Back £64 at 2.0 returns £64

Game finishes 0-0 again

I lose my £102.40 liability on the original LAY

I win £64 on the Back bet

Net loss £38.40 plus my original £24 I am £62 down

On the third game I increase my lay by 50% so I now

trade £32 + £31 = £63, and that one wins for us. I have
made a good dent in the money I lost on the first two
games. I go back to £20 and that wins and hey presto I
am in profit off a 50% strike rate.

Now this may sound scary but remember I am taking

worst case scenario in high lay price and 0-0 result. I refer
you back to the statistics of draws which you can check
yourself. (If you find it to scary try 25% it will still limit
those losing games.)

Now this restricts losses considerably and then when you

go on a winning streak, you make hay. I went 94 games
this year without a 0-0 and 89 games straight last year
without a SINGLE LOSER of any type.

By staking like this you will cover your losses, it is not like
roulette where the next spin could always be the same
colour, each match starts with odds in favour of one team
so you are playing a board with your advantage. I am not
chasing my losses I am systematically covering my trades

31

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

I advise this for bank building and obviously if you are
trading higher numbers then the figures involved can get
scary and you may struggle to get your trade matched on
Betfair. If your bank is at this level you can dive out at 2.0
and take the hit. Like I said I don’t want to sound flash,
but I distance myself emotionally from the money. Of
course I don’t like to lose (who does) but I accept that it
happens, trading is what I do and this goes with the
territory. The England and Real Madrid games in May/June
2007 hurt me massively, not because I lost but because
the goals were in the last minute of injury time and there
is nothing you can do then, it was not so much the money
but the nature of the defeat.
I can only advise that you start at a level you can afford.
No one will ever convince me that this system does not
work, the main reason for failure is gambling money you
do not have which affects you psychologically and letting
emotion affect what you do.

If you do the same thing repeatedly you will win. If you

stake £100 on one game then all of a sudden think “oh
Arsenal must win I will have £300 on this one” then you
will lose, because the big game that you thought had to
win will KICK YOU IN THE BUTT.

My advice is to start the system as above and only

increase you general stake when your bank can
accommodate it. (When the cover to win system gives you
a winning game revert back to your usual stake).

When do you get out if you are winning?

If the game is 1-0 or 2-0 and the odds are climbing in our
favour I have always had the philosophy of doubling my
Lay price. So if I lay at 4.2 I look to back out at 8.4 or a
bit above. This secures me a nice profit. Again sometimes
it may be 1-0 and I will ride it out to the end that is my
preference to maximise profit and take the full value of
my initial LAY. Again this is something I can do and
32

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

absorb if it backfires on me (approx 9% of 1-1 draws
worldwide tells me I will be ok LONG TERM). If you adopt
my method accept you will get hit sometimes otherwise
build your bank by taking profit when it is there. Lots of
small amonts soon become a big amount.
I have to add at this juncture I get a Big Buzz from
trading, I don’t get nervous and really enjoy it, tight
games and all. (Kinda sick I know).

The easiest way to ensure you get your desired profit is to

place your back bet UNMATCHED at the desired odds. On
the place bets screen at Betfair, you can raise the odds to
the level you wish lets say 8.4 and place your back stake
in the box. Click submit and your bet is placed but is
unmatched. This means that nobody has offered to accept
that bet yet, but when they do you will get matched
instantly and your profit secured. This is better than
racing to get the odds when they appear and being beat
to it (by someone like me).
NOTE – if the market suspends all unmatched bets are
automatically cancelled so you need to place them again
when the market resumes.

A useful feature to use when placing bets is the “what if”

feature. This is under the options on the betting screen. It
will show you the affect of your bet when you place it
before you submit it. It is useful to see how much profit
you would make before committing to a certain price.

What do you do if the underdog team scores first?

I do NOTHING. If a team – whatever team- is leading 1-0

I am winning my trade. Therefore I leave it, again the
statistics back up that there will be more results go our
way than not so I operate exactly the same. The draw
odds will not rise because the favourite is expected to
equalise so I just sit on it. Many times the favourite will
equalise, but then they will score again, many times the
33

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

dog team will hold on, and about 9% of the time it may
end 1-1. Do not panic.

A useful strategy to have in your armoury is one where

we lay the winning team late on in the game.
Lets assume the underdog has scored and at 82 minutes
it is still 0-0.

I layed the draw for £100 at 4.2 so my liability is £320.

The odds at 88 mins are as follows

Favourite/Losing team To BACK 17.0

Draw To BACK 4.1
Underdog/Winning Team To LAY 1.2

I cannot back the draw at a profit at 4.1 as the odds are

not rising because the favourites have all the ball and are
pressing. I am not going to back the losing team at 17
when they need to score 2 goals in 2 minutes. I do
however have the liability of £320 and the danger of a
late equaliser.

I can LAY the winning team at 1.2 for an amount to

reduce my liability in case of a last minute goal.

So I lay for £300 at 1.2. If the last minute goal comes

hence a draw I have won £300 on the trade I just placed
reducing my liability to only £20. If there is no goal I win
my £100 on my initial Lay and pay out on my losing £300
trade I just placed but only £60. £300 x 0.2 = £60. So I
win £40 if it stays the same. You can do this at 1.1 or
even 1.06. It is not something I do lots of but for the
more nervous types it is a useful weapon to protect you.

Well that is it, if there is anything left out mail it to me

and I can add it on here. The only thing left for me to
point out is mistakes I have spotted as I see them, I am

34

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007

not criticising what anybody does as it is their own money
but things I note people doing when online with me.

In no particular order

Chasing Losses
Getting emotionally involved with the money side
therefore making bad judgement calls
Waiting for 10 minutes of the game to go so the lay odds
drop causing you to miss games when an early goal is
scored.
Depreciating profits by placing other bets such as over/
under 2.5 goals.
Inconsistent staking
Inconsistent trading patterns

As always I assure you of my support and wish you all the

best.

Regards

Ian

P.S I suggest you print these pages out and keep them
handy.

35

Copyright Ian Erskine 2007