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APS U06 6.3 Geometric Random Variable Practice KEY

This document contains practice problems related to geometric random variables. It includes examples of determining the type of distribution, probability of success, expected number of trials, and using the geometric distribution formula to calculate probabilities. For the first problem about finding a matching key among 100 locks, the distribution is geometric with a probability of success of 0.01 and an expected number of trials of 100. For the second problem about coin tosses between three friends, the distribution is also geometric, with a probability of success of 3/4 and an expected number of tosses of 4/3 to get a winner. The third problem examines a coin tossing game where a player earns $2n depending on the number of tosses n to get a

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52 views1 page

APS U06 6.3 Geometric Random Variable Practice KEY

This document contains practice problems related to geometric random variables. It includes examples of determining the type of distribution, probability of success, expected number of trials, and using the geometric distribution formula to calculate probabilities. For the first problem about finding a matching key among 100 locks, the distribution is geometric with a probability of success of 0.01 and an expected number of trials of 100. For the second problem about coin tosses between three friends, the distribution is also geometric, with a probability of success of 3/4 and an expected number of tosses of 4/3 to get a winner. The third problem examines a coin tossing game where a player earns $2n depending on the number of tosses n to get a

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M K
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AP Statistics—6.

3 Geometric Random Variables Name___________________KEY____________

Practice Problems:

1. For the offices of a large building, there are 100 different lock and key combinations. You find a key to one of
these offices but don’t know which office it belongs to. You start testing locks to see if the key will fit.
a. If X = the number of locks you must test to find the correct key, what type of distribution is it? What is
the probability of success?
GEOMETRIC WITH p=.01 SINCE YOU COUNT THE # OF LOCKS UNTIL YOU FIND THE ONE THAT
WORKS
b. What is the expected number of offices you will have to visit in order to find an office with a lock that the
key fits?
E(X)=1 /.01 = 100
c. What is the probability that you will have to visit at least 200 offices in order to find an office with a lock
that the key fits?
P(X>= 200) = 1-P(X<=199) = 1 – [.01+(.99)(.01) + … + (.99)^198*(.01)] = 0.1353 (USE GEOMCDF)
d. What is the probability that you will have to visit at most 100?
P(X<=100) = .01 + (.99)(.01) + … + (.99)^99*(.01) = .6340
2. Three friends each toss a coin. The odd man wins; that is, if one coin comes up different than the other two,
that person wins that round. If the coins all match, then no one wins and they toss again. We’re interested in
the number of times the players will have to toss the coins until someone wins.
a. What is the probability that no one will win on a given coin toss?
YOU MAY WANT TO MAKE A TREE DIAGRAM OF 3 COIN TOSSES, EACH WITH H OR T AS THE
OUTCOMES. P(NO ONE WINS) = P(HHH or TTT) = 2/8 = 1/4
b. Define success as someone wins on a given coin toss. What is the probability of success?
p= 1-P(NO ONE WINS) = 1-1/4 = 3/4
c. Is this binomial or geometric? Why?
GEOMETRIC SINCE YOU TOSS UNTIL SOMEONE WINS. LET X = # OF TOSSES UNTIL YOU GET A
WINNER
d. What is the expected number of times the players will have to toss the dice in order for there to be a
winner?
E(X)=1 / ¾ = 4/3 OR 1.333
e. What is the probability there will be more tosses than expected to find a winner?
E(X)=1.333 SO MORE THAN EXPECTED IS MORE THAN 1.333. X TAKES WHOLE # VALUES FROM 1 TO
INFINITY, SO FIND P(X>=2). P(X>=2) = 1-P(X=1) = 1-(3/4) = 1/4
f. What is the expected number of times for there to be three winners?
SINCE E(X)=4/3, FOR 3 WINNERS, DO 3(4/3) = 4
3. In a gambling game, Simon tosses a coin until a head is facing up. He then receives $2n, where n is the
number of tosses. LET X= # OF TOSSES TIL SIMON GETS HEADS
a. What is the probability that Simon receives $8.00 in one play of the game?
$8.00 MEANS SIMON WOULD HAVE 4 TOSSES, SO P(X=4) = (1/2)^3(1/2) = 1/16 OR .0625
b. What is the expected earnings?
E(X)= 1 / ½ = 2, SO EXPECTED EARNINGS = $2(2) = $4
c. How many coin tosses does Simon expect to have to win twice?
E(X) = 2, SO TO WIN TWICE, SIMON EXPECTS TO TOSS 2(2) = 4 TIMES
d. If Simon player must pay $5.00 to play, what is the win/loss ratio per game?
IF WINNING EARNS $2 PER TOSS, YOUR WINNINGS ARE -$3 IF YOU WIN ON THE 1 ST TOSS, -$1 IF YOU
WIN ON THE 2ND TOSS, $1 IF YOU WIN ON THE 3RD TOSS, ETC., SO YOU DON’T START MAKING
POSITIVE WINNINGS UNTIL AT LEAST THE 3RD TOSS.
THEREFORE, WIN  P(X>=3) AND LOSS P(X<=2).
P(X>=3) = 1-P(X<=2) = 1 – [P(X=1) + P(X=2)] = 1 – (1/2 + 1/4) = ¼.
P(X<=2) = P(X=1)+P(X=2) = ½ + ¼ = ¾ .
WIN TO LOSS RATIO = ¼ / ¾ = 1/3.

http://www.barrington220.org/cms/lib2/IL01001296/Centricity/Domain/265/GeometricNotesMeanStdDev.pdf

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