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Solutions Assignment 3 Probability

This document contains solutions to 9 exercises on probability concepts covered in a Business Statistics I course. The exercises cover topics like mutually exclusive/collectively exhaustive events, probability calculations using formulas like the general addition rule and multiplication rule, probability matrices, and calculating conditional probabilities. For each exercise, the relevant probability formulas are stated and the calculations are shown.

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sirine zaltni
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13 views

Solutions Assignment 3 Probability

This document contains solutions to 9 exercises on probability concepts covered in a Business Statistics I course. The exercises cover topics like mutually exclusive/collectively exhaustive events, probability calculations using formulas like the general addition rule and multiplication rule, probability matrices, and calculating conditional probabilities. For each exercise, the relevant probability formulas are stated and the calculations are shown.

Uploaded by

sirine zaltni
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Course Title: Business Statistics I

Solutions Tutorial # 4
Probability

Exercise #1

a. mutually exclusive and not collectively exhaustive


b. mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive
c. mutually exclusive and not collectively exhaustive
d. mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive

Exercise #2

a. 𝐶26 = 15

𝐶13 ∗𝐶13
b. = 0.6
𝐶26

Exercise #3

𝐶620 = 38760 possible groups of 6.

Exercise #4

A: American has flown in an airplane at least once → P(A)=0.47


B: Americans has ridden on a train at least once→ P(B)=0.28

General addition rule:


P(A or B)= P(A)+P(B)-P(A and B)

Events A and B are not mutually exclusive → we can’t assume that P(A and B)=0
Thus this problem is not solvable.

Exercise #5

A: U.S. household with television has cable TV→ P(A)=0.67


B: U.S. household with television has two or more TV sets → P(B)=0.74

P(A and B)=0.55


a. P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A and B) =0.86
b. P(A or B)-P(A and B)=0.31
c. P(A’ and B’)=1-P(A or B)=0.14
1
d. We can’t apply the special law of addition not apply to this problem because A and B
are not Mutually Exclusive events.

Exercise #6

X: American adult is a stockholder→ P(X)=0.43


Y: American adult has some college education→ P(Y)=0.37

75% of all American adult stockholders have some college education → P(Y/X)=0.75

a. P(X’)=1-P(X)=0.57
57% of American Adults do not own stock.

b. General Law of Multiplication


P(X and Y)=P(Y/X)*P(X)=0.3225

c. P(X or Y)=P(X)+P(Y)-P(X and Y)=0.4775

d. P(X’ and Y’)=1-P(X or Y)=0.5225

e. P(X’ or Y’)= P(X’)+P(Y’)-P(X’ and Y’)=0.6775

f. P(Y and X’)=P(Y/X’)*P(X’)

=[1-P(Y’/X’)]*P(X’)

𝑃(𝑋 ′ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑌 ′ )
=[1 − ] ∗ 𝑃(𝑋 ′ )
𝑃(𝑋 ′ )

=0.0475

Or we can use the Probability Matrix

X
Yes No
Y Yes P(Y and X)=0.3225 P(Y and X’)=0.0475 P(Y)=0.37
No P(Y’ and X)=0.1075 P(Y’ and X’)=0.5225 P(Y’)=0.63
P(X)=0.43 P(X’)=0.57 1

Exercise #7

E: Economy is a challenge for growth→ P(E)=0.46


Q: Finding qualified workers is a challenge for growth→ P(Q)=0.37
P(E and Q)=0.15

𝑃(𝐸 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑄)
a. P(E/Q)= = 0.4054
𝑃(𝑄)

𝑃(𝐸 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑄)
b. P(Q/E)= = 0.3261
𝑃(𝐸)

2
𝑃(𝑄 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸′) 𝑃(𝑄)−𝑃(𝑄 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸) 0.22
c. P(Q/E’)= = = 0.54 = 0.4074
𝑃(𝐸′) 𝑃(𝐸 ′ )

Probability Matrix

Q
Yes No
E Yes P(E and Q)=0.15 P(E and Q’)=0.31 P(E)=0.46
No P(E’ and Q)=0.22 P(E’ and Q’)=0.32 P(E’)=0.54
P(Q)=0.37 P(Q’)=0.63 1

d. P(Q’ and E’)=P(E’)- P(E’ and Q)=0.32

Exercise #8

H: Accountant purchases his computer hardware by mail order direct→ P(H)=0.37


S: Accountant purchases his computer software by mail order direct→ P(S)=0.54
P(S/H)=0.97

a. P(S’/H)=1-P(S/H)=0.03
𝑃(𝑆 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐻 ′ ) 0.1811
b. P(S/H’)= = = 0.2874
𝑃(𝐻 ′ ) 0.63

Probability Matrix

H
Yes No
S Yes P(S and H)=0.3589 P(S and H’)=0.1811 P(S)=0.54
No P(S’ and H)=0.0111 P(S’ and H’)=0.4489 P(S’)=0.46
P(H)=0.37 P(H’)=0.63 1

c. P(H’/S)=0.3353

d. P(H’/S’)=0.9758

Exercise #9

A: machine A production→ P(A)=0.1


B: machine B production→ P(B)=0.4
C: machine C production→ P(C)=0.5
D: Defective product
P(D/A)=0.05; P(D/B)=0.12; P(D/C)=0.08

3
𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐷) P(D/ A)∗P(A)
 Revised Probability: P(A/D)= = = 0.0538
𝑃(𝐷) 𝑃(𝐷)

Total probability formula:


P(D)= P(D and A) +P(D and B)+ P(D and C)
= [P(D/ A)*P(A)]+ [P(D/ B)*P(B)]+ [P(D/ C)*P(C)]
=0.093
𝑃(𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐷) P(D/ B)∗P(B)
 Revised Probability: P(B/D)= = = 0.5161
𝑃(𝐷) 𝑃(𝐷)

𝑃(𝐶 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐷) P(D/ C)∗P(C)


 Revised Probability: P(C/D)= = = 0.4301
𝑃(𝐷) 𝑃(𝐷)

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