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Probability

1. The document contains 6 exercises involving calculations of binomial probabilities. 2. The exercises calculate probabilities of outcomes when the number of trials and probability of success on each trial are given. 3. Common calculations include the probability of getting a certain number of successes, fewer than a number of successes, and five or more successes.
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
13 views3 pages

Probability

1. The document contains 6 exercises involving calculations of binomial probabilities. 2. The exercises calculate probabilities of outcomes when the number of trials and probability of success on each trial are given. 3. Common calculations include the probability of getting a certain number of successes, fewer than a number of successes, and five or more successes.
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Exercise 1

Then x follows a Binomial with n= 4 and p=30%=0.3


a. Pn(k,p) = ( � )( �)� (1 − �)�−�
�!
P(x) = �!(�−�)! �� (1 − �)�−�
4 4!
�4 (0,0.3) =( 0 ) (0,3)0 (0,7)4 = 0!(4−0)! (0,3)0 (0,7)4−0 = (1)(1)(0,2401) = 0,2401
4!
b. �4 (1, 0.3) = 1!(4−1)! (0,3)1 (0,7)3 = (4)(0,3)(0,343) = 0,4116

4 4 4!
c. �4 (≥ 2, 0.3) = 1-�4 ( ≤ 1, 0.3) = 1 − � =2 0
(0,3)0 (0,7)4−0 = 0!(4−0)! (1)(0,2401) =

0,7599
1 4 4!
�4 (≤ 1,0.3) = �=0 0 (0,3)� (0,7)4−� = 0!(4−0)! (0,3)0 (00,7)4 = (1)(1)(0,2401) = 0,2401

Exercise 2
The probability that she will get the answer to any one of the questions correctly is 1/4 be
there are 4 balls and only one of the balls will determine the correct answer each time.
P= 1/4 = .25
q= 1-p = 3/4 = .75
P(x) = �� . �(�−�) .c(n,x)
n x p q �� �(�−�) C(n,x) P(x)
5 0 0,25 0,75 1 0,23730469 1 0,23736469 P(0)
5 1 0,25 0,75 0,25 0,31640625 5 0,39550781 P(1)
5 2 0,25 0,75 0,0625 0,421875 10 0,26367188 P(20
5 3 0,25 0,75 0,015625 0,5625 10 0,08789062 P(3)
5 4 0,25 0,75 0,00390625 0,75 5 0,01464844 P(4)
5 5 0,25 0,75 0,00097656 1 1 0,000976565 P(5)

a. Probability that all 5 questions will be answered correctly = 0,0097656


b. Probability that at least 4 will be correct = p(4)+p(5) = 0,015625
c. Probability that will get 0 correct = p(0) = 0,23736469
d. Probability that will get no more than 2 correct = p(0)+p(1)+p(2)= 0,89654438

Exercise 3

P = 65%= 0.65

a. Probability P(x=1)= 2.(0,65).(0,35)= 0,455


3!
b. Probability= P(x=2) = (n �� ) �� (1- �)(�−�) = (3 �2 ) . 0,652 .(1- 0,65)3−2 = 2!(3−2)!
.(0,4225).(0,35)
=3.0,4225.0,35 = 0,4436
6!
c. Probability= P(x=0) = (n�� ) �� (1-�)(�−�) = (6�0 ). 0,650 .(1-0,65)6−0 = 0!(6−0)!
.(1).(0,00183) =
(1).(1).(0,00183) = 0,00183

Exercise 4

a. Probability that six or more people state a preference for brand A= P(X≥6)
10
p(x=6) = 6
.16 .(1-1)10−6 = 0
10
P(x=7) = 7
. 17 .(1 − 1)10−7 = 0
10
P(x=8) = 8
. 18 . (1 − 1)10−8 = 0
10
P(x=9) = 9
. 19 . (1 − 1)10−9 = 0
10
P(x=10) = 10
. 110 . (1 − 1)10−10 = 1

Probability p(x≥6)= 0+0+0+0+1= 1, so probability that six or more people state preference for brand A,
assuming the companys claim is correct

b. Probability that fewer thab six people state a preference brand A= P(x<6)
10
P(x=0)= 0 . 10 . (1 − 1)0 = 1
10
P(x=1)= . 11 . (1 − 1)1 = 10.0.1= 0
1
10
P(x=2)= 2
. 12 . (1 − 1)2 = 45.0.1= 0
10
P(x=3)= 3
. 13 . (1 − 1)3 = 120.0.1= 0
10
P(x=4)= 4
. 14 . (1 − 1)4 =210.0.1= 0
10
P(x=5)= . 15 . (1 − 1)5 = 252.0.1= 0
5

Probability p(x<6)= 1+0+0+0+0+0= 1, so probability fewer that six people state a preference brand A,
assuming the companys claim is correct

Exercise 5

�−ƛ ƛ �
P(x) = �!
ƛ = 2,4 �(−2,4) = 0,0907 x= 1,2,3,4…
x P(x)
0 0,0907 0,0907 9(2,4)0
0!
1 0,2177 0,0907 (2,4)1
1!
2 0,2613 0,0907 (2,4)2
2!
3 0,2090 0,0907 (2,4)3
3!
4 0,1254 0,0907 (2,4)4
4!

a. Probability exactly 0 errors occur 0,0907


b. Probability exactly 1 error will occur 0,2177
c. Probability 2 or more error will occur = probability less than 2 error won’t occur
p(x≥ 2)= 1-0,3084 = 0,6916
d. Probability fewer than 3 error occur P(x<3)= 0,0907+0,2177+0,2163 = 0,5697

Exercise 6

�−ƛ ƛ �
P(x) = �!
ƛ= 6,0 �−(6) = 0,002478 = 0,0025

x P(x)
0 0,0025 0,0025 (6)0
0!
1 0,0149 0,0025 (6)1
1!
2 0,0446 0,0025 (6)2
2!
3 0,0892 0,0025 (6)3
3!
4 0,1339 0,0025 (6)4
4!
5 0,1606 0,0025 (6)5
5!

a. Probability fewer than 5 chip parts P(x<5) = 0,0025+0,0149+0,0446+0,0892+0,1339 =


0,2850
b. Probability exactly 5 chip parts will found = P(x=5) =0,1606
c. Probability 5 or more chip parts will found = probability less than 5 chip won’t found
P(x≥ 5) = 1-P(x<5) = 1-0,2850 = 0,715
d. Probability either 4 or 5 parts will found = 0,0892+0,1339 = 0,2231

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