1FORECAST
01. A Company started recently last3 qures sales are q1 40 q2 45 q3 50 q4 65. SHARADA R
B company as data of last 30 years q1 40 q2 45 q3 50 q4 40 a5 45 ....q30 50 q31 65 20222MLS0095
.
the avarge is considerd as the basis for percentage sales for next quter .it is obserb SEC -17
that actually sales for next four quter for both the company is next 65 . CLASS 01, 24 JAN 2024
find out percentage error ,forcast and conclusion.
Company A Company B Company A Company B Company A COMPANY B
Q1 40 Q1 40 Q1 40 Q1 40
Q2 45 Q2 45 Q2 45 Q2 45 AVRAGE 45 45
Q3 50 Q3 50 Q3 50 Q3 50
Q4 65 Q4 40 Q4 65 Q4 40 DEVIATION 20 20
Q5 45 Q5 45
Q6 40 error 5 0.64516129
Q7 45
Q30 50 Q8 50 Percntage error 11.11 1.43
Q31 65 Q9 40
Q10 45
Q11 40
Q12 45
Q13 50
Q14 40
Q15 45
Q16 40
Q17 45
Q18 50
Q19 40
Q20 45
Q21 40
Q22 45
Q23 50
Q24 40
Q25 45
Q26 40
Q27 45
Q28 50
Q29 40
Q30 50
Q31 65
2. SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE 3MA, 4MA
MONTHQTY 02.The production data of l
following data
1 45 forcast the quantity necess
2 55 6 months using the methou
3 58 1 simple avarge methoud
2 3 point moving avarge
4 67 3 6 point moving avarage
5 69 workout the details on pap
and compare results
6 75 workout forcast using xl spr
7 70 catogeries
8 65
9 80
10 90
11 90 SIMPEL AVERAGE
3 POINT MOVING AVG
12 92 MONTHSQTY MONTHS
13 1 45 1
14 2 55 2
15 3 58 3
16 4 67 4
17 5 69 5
18 6 75 6
7 70 7
8 65 8
9 80 9
10 90 10
11 90 11
12 92 12
13 77.56 13
14 71.33 14
15 71.33 15
16 71.33 16
17 71.33 17
18 71.33 18
ERAGE 3MA, 4MA , 6MA
production data of last 12 month is indicate the
g data
he quantity necessary to be priduced for next
hs using the methoud of
avarge methoud
t moving avarge
t moving avarage
the details on paper by .drawing the table
mpare results
forcast using xl spred sheeet for above 4
es
POINT MOVING AVG
4 POINT MOVING
6 POINT MOVING AVG
QTY MONTHSQTY MONTHSQTY
45 1 45 1 45
55 2 55 2 55
58 3 58 3 58
67 4 67 4 67
69 5 69 5 69
75 6 75 6 75
70 7 70 7 70
65 8 65 8 65
80 9 80 9 80
90 10 90 10 90
90 11 90 11 90
92 12 92 12 92
90.67 13 88.00 13 81.17
90.89 14 90.00 14 83.03
91.19 15 90.00 15 86.03
90.91 16 90.00 16 87.04
91.00 17 89.50 17 86.54
91.03 18 89.88 18 85.97
SHARADA R
20222MLS0095
SEC -17
CLASS 02,25 JAN 2024
X Y
9 46
3 18
3 20
5 22
4 27
7 34
2 14
6 37 linear
4 30 y = 4.2753x + 7.1292
forecasted 10 ? 49.8822
forecasted 13 ? 62.7081
03.For the following data obtain a linear model and qu
model to make a prediction.
LINEAR
50
45
Quadratic f(x) = 4.275280898876 x + 7.1292134
40
35
y = -0.0906x2 + 5.266x + 4.8627 30
25
20
48.4627 15
10
5
58.0093 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
model and quadratic SHARADA R
20222MLS0095
SEC -17
CLASS 03 ,30 JAN 2024
50
NEAR 45
f(x) = − 0.0906186 x² + 5.265976 x + 4.86273
40 QUADRATIC
35
876 x + 7.129213483146 30
25
20
15
10
5
0
6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
+ 4.86273
8 9 10
04 FORECAST ERROR
SHARADA R
04.In above problem ex -3 , determine forecast error for each sample for 20222MLS0095
both linear and quadratic and obtain sum of errors for each categories also SEC -17
determine of sum of square of each categories. CLASS 4,31 JAN 2024
SUPPLY CHAIN ANALYTICS (MBA4035)
LINEAR QUADRATIC
Y= 4.27 Y=-0.090
(A) FL ERRL (ERRL)^2 Fq ERRq (ERRq)^2
X Y YCL A-FL (A-FL)^2 YCQ A-Fq (A-Fq)^2
9 46 204 -158 24898.63 44.92 -35.918 1290.11
3 18 84.08 -66 4367.17 19.85 -16.845 283.76
3 20 92.64 -73 5275.87 19.85 -16.845 283.76
5 22 101 -79 6270.39 28.93 -23.928 572.53
4 27 123 -96 9132.15 24.48 -20.477 419.31
7 34 152 -118 14039.74 37.29 -30.285 917.20
2 14 67 -53 2807.24 15.03 -13.032 169.84
6 37 165 -128 16464.82 33.20 -27.197 739.68
4 30 135 -105 11106.67 24.48 -20.477 419.31
43 248 1124 -876 768142.17 248.01 -205 42027.17
Determine the slope and intercept for following data SHARADA R
1. By using excel funtion 20222MLS0095
2. By normal equation SEC -17
CLASS 5,
07 FEB,2024
SUPPLY CHAIN ANALYTICS(MBA4035)
Sl No Price/u Quantity
1 5 350
2 6.5 325 1 . By using Excel funtion
3 7 300 slope (b) -56.7078908
4 7.5 250 intercept (a) 659.588654
5 7.6 200
6 8 200 2.By using normal equation
7 8.2 175 sl no x y x.y x^2
8 8.1 190 1 5.00 350 1750 25.00
9 8.5 160 2 6.50 325 2112.5 42.25
10 9 165 3 7.00 300 2100 49.00
11 8.9 160 4 7.50 250 1875 56.25
5 7.60 200 1520 57.76
6 8.00 200 1600 64.00
7 8.20 175 1435 67.24
8 8.10 190 1539 65.61
9 8.50 160 1360 72.25
10 9.00 165 1485 81.00
11 8.90 160 1424 79.21
Total 84.30 2475 18200.5 659.57
SUPPLY CHAIN ANALYTICS
DATE : 8TH FEB 2024
MADHU M N
20222MLS00
SECTION - 17
06. Determine the coefficients a,b & c using normal equations consider the data given in the
previous problem generate the quadratic equation .
Sl No Price/u Quantity sl no x y x.y x^2 X^3 X^2 Y X^4
1 5 350 1 5.00 350 1750 25 125 8750 625
2 6.5 325 2 6.50 325 2112.5 42.25 274.625 13731.25 1785.0625
3 7 300 3 7.00 300 2100 49 343 14700 2401
4 7.5 250 4 7.50 250 1875 56.25 421.875 14062.5 3164.0625
5 7.6 200 5 7.60 200 1520 57.76 438.976 11552 3336.2176
6 8 200 6 8.00 200 1600 64 512 12800 4096
7 8.2 175 7 8.20 175 1435 67.24 551.368 11767 4521.2176
8 8.1 190 8 8.10 190 1539 65.61 531.441 12465.9 4304.6721
9 8.5 160 9 8.50 160 1360 72.25 614.125 11560 5220.0625
10 9 165 10 9.00 165 1485 81 729 13365 6561
11 8.9 160 11 8.90 160 1424 79.21 704.969 12673.6 6274.2241
Total 84.30 2475 18200.5 659.57 5246.379 137427.25 42288.52
NORMAL EQUATIONS FORECAST EQUATION
1. 2475=11a+84.3b+659.27c Y=441.79+6.74X-4.4X^2
2. 18200.5=84.3a+659.27b+5246.38c
3. 137427.25 =659.57a+5246.38b+4288.52c
SUPPLY CHAIN ANALYTICS
DATE : 14TH FEB 2024
GOUTHAM B
20222MLS0081
SECTION - 17
07. A company has multiple resource being used in the production of component the demand is based on
price of two raw materials X1,& X2 the past 10 weeks data is following in time write down the normal
equation & determine the forecast equation. relate in X1& X2also determine the demand (y) when X1= 8.5 ,
X2= 13,6 units
SL/NO Y X1 X2 YX1 X1^2 X1*X2 YX2 X2^2 MAD MSE MAPE
1 50 4.0 12 200 16 48.00 600 144 50.9169 2592.531 10.18338
2 45 5.0 10.5 225 25 52.50 472.5 110.25 45.2119 2044.116 10.04709
3 35 8.00 9 280 64 72.00 315 81 39.1669 1534.046 11.19054
4 67 7.5 14.5 502.5 56.25 108.75 971.5 210.25 59.5469 3545.833 8.887597
5 46 4.6 9 211.6 21.16 41.40 414 81 39.7449 1579.657 8.640196
6 23 4.8 5.6 110.4 23.04 26.88 128.8 31.36 27.1649 737.9318 11.81083
7 56 8.00 13 448 64 104.00 728 169 53.9269 2908.111 9.629804
8 48 6.00 11 288 36 66.00 528 121 46.8869 2198.381 9.768104
9 65 7.00 18 455 49 126.00 1170 324 72.5469 5263.053 11.16106
10 75 9.00 18.5 675 81 166.50 1387.5 342.25 74.0519 5483.684 9.873587
TOTAL 510 63.9 121.1 3395.5 435.45 812.03 6715.3 1614.11 509.165 27887.34 101.1922
NORMAL EQUATION FORECAST EQUATION
1. 510=10a+ 63.9b=121.1c Y=7.3169-0.17X1+3.69X2
2. 3395.5=63.9a+4345.b+812.03c
3. 6715.3=121.3a+812.03b+1614.11c
07. A company has multiple resource being used in the production of component the demand i
the past 10 weeks data is following in time write down the normal equation & determine the fo
determine the demand (y) when X1= 8.5 , X2= 13,6 units
SL/NO Y X1 X2 YX1 X1^2
1 50 4.0 12 200 16
2 45 5.0 10.5 225 25
3 35 8.00 9 280 64
4 67 7.5 14.5 502.5 56.25
5 46 4.6 9 211.6 21.16
6 23 4.8 5.6 110.4 23.04
7 56 8.00 13 448 64
8 48 6.00 11 288 36
9 65 7.00 18 455 49
10 75 9.00 18.5 675 81
TOTAL 510 63.9 121.1 3395.5 435.45
NORMAL EQUATION
1.510=10a+ 63.9b=121.1c
2. 3395.5=63.9a+4345.b+812.03c
3. 6715.3=121.3a+812.03b+1614.11c
omponent the demand is based on price of two raw materials X1,& X2
ation & determine the forecast equation. relate in X1& X2also
X1*X2 YX2 X2^2 MAD MSE MAPE
48.00 600 144 50.9169 2592.5307 10.18338
52.50 472.5 110.25 45.2119 2044.1159 10.04708889
72.00 315 81 39.1669 1534.0461 11.19054286
108.75 971.5 210.25 59.5469 3545.8333 8.887597015
41.40 414 81 39.7449 1579.6571 8.640195652
26.88 128.8 31.36 27.1649 737.93179 11.81082609
104.00 728 169 53.9269 2908.1105 9.629803571
66.00 528 121 46.8869 2198.3814 9.768104167
126.00 1170 324 72.5469 5263.0527 11.16106154
166.50 1387.5 342.25 74.0519 5483.6839 9.873586667
812.03 6715.3 1614.11 509.165 27887.343 101.1921864
FORECAST EQUATION
Y=7.3169-0.17X1+3.69X2
