IDS2b Data, Science, Data Science
IDS2b Data, Science, Data Science
10101001
The fundamental asymmetry between
verification/confirmation and falsification
• Confirming the rule (model/theory) doesn’t add
anything.
• It only breeds false confidence, as seen in the
turkey problem and the issue of black swans.
• One only learns from falsification.
• Corollary: A scientific investigation needs to allow
for falsification. The conclusions can’t be foregone.
• People are not inclined to do this. The natural
tendency – in almost all human affairs is to confirm
(support with evidence) what one already suspects.
Rule: If there is a vowel on one side,
there is an even number on the other.
Does not
Wears a
Indoors Outdoors wear a
mask
mask
Politics ☓ ☓ ☓ ☓ ☓ ☓
Religion ☓ ☓ ☓ ☓ ☓ ☓
English literature ✓ ☓ ☓ ☓ ☓ ☓
Dance ✓ ☓ ☓ ☓ ☓ ☓
Engineering ✓ ☓ ☓ ☓ ☓ ☓
Philosophy ✓ ☓ ☓ ☓ ☓ ☓
Computer science ✓ ☓ ☓ ☓ ☓ ☓
Library science ✓ ☓ ☓ ☓ ☓ ☓
Medicine ✓ ☓ ☓ ☓ ☓ ☓
History ✓ ✓ ☓ ☓ ☓ ☓
Mathematics ✓ ☓ ☓ ✓ ☓ ☓
Economics ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ☓ 2
Physics ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 1
Astronomy ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ☓ 1
Psychology ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 2
Neuroscience ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Hallmarks Type I Type II
Objects reducible to elements Yes (e.g. quarks, atoms, No (e.g. people, societies)
with simple behavior molecules)
Objects reducible to Yes (e.g. all gold atoms are No (e.g. brains–are inherently
categories with no intrinsic in- identical, variation is due to different between people,
group variance measurement noise) true variability)
Reactive subject matter No (i.e. once forces of nature Yes (i.e. once rules of behavior
have been understood, they have been found, they might
don’t change) well change as a result of this)
Ethical considerations No (e.g. no IRB necessary to Yes (e.g. human experiments,
do experiments with natural animal experiments)
forces)
Ergodicity Typically yes Typically no
uses
Primary goal: Recording and
Physics analyzing *data* to understand the
uses
natural world
Science
Realm of ideas
Deduction*
Induction
Type II:
à 1) Data science as a “handmaiden”
to many scientific fields
• Akin to the relationship between mathematics and
physics.
• Issue: Can’t do experiments in many fields.
• And well all know that correlation ≠ causation.
• Or is it?
• Causal inference: If there are many replicates that
are characterized in a multivariate fashion, some
causal models are much more likely than others.
Can data science turn history into a science?