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Dube, 2018
Volume 4 Issue 1, pp.111-132
Date of Publication: 16th March 2018
DOI-https://dx.doi.org/10.20319/pijss.2018.41.111132
This paper can be cited as: Dube, E. (2018). Using Models to Deal with Hazards and Disasters: A
Trajectory towards Effective Disaster Management In Zimbabwe. People: International Journal of Social
Sciences, 4(1), 111-132.
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial 4.0 International
License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ or send a
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Abstract
The contribution of models in the management of disasters has been less understood by some
practitioners. As such, the use of models seems to have been ignored by policy-makers and
practitioners when dealing with all forms of disasters in Zimbabwe. Various kinds of hazards
and disasters in Zimbabwe, that include droughts, floods, cholera epidemics and veld fires have
heavily impacted communities, resulting in the complexity of disaster management that calls for
the use of models. This desktop study sought to analyze the contribution of models in managing
hazards and disasters in Zimbabwe. The study was based on a qualitative literature survey and
document analysis. Through literature and document analysis, the study found that models are
crucial in disaster management as they can simplify practitioners’ understanding of hazards and
disasters. Models are also a useful and indispensable decision-making support tool as they can
assist the practitioners to make appropriate decisions. The study further found that models that
are common to the practitioners included the traditional model, expand-contract model, and the
disaster crunch model. Furthermore, a close relationship exists between the disaster
management models. Most of the models are based on the disaster management phases of
mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Since the models play a significant role in the
management of hazards and disasters, the study concluded that they are an indispensable tool
and a proper trajectory towards managing disaster events in Zimbabwe. Therefore, the study
recommends the adoption of the models in the management of all forms of disasters. The
significance of this study is in its potential to inform policy and practice. The future scope should
focus on the nature of models applicable to selected disaster situations in Zimbabwe.
Keywords
Disaster, Disaster management, Disaster management models, Hazards, Practitioners
______________________________________________________________________________
1. Introduction
Zimbabwe, in addition to South Africa and Mozambique, is one of the countries in
Southern Africa with a history of being affected by different kinds of disasters. Disasters in
Zimbabwe have increased in intensity and frequency in recent times, with the country
experiencing disasters such as floods, drought, veld fires, AIDS pandemic, cholera outbreaks and
transport accidents (Dube, 2015; Sillah, 2015). Disaster statistics can reveal that between 1980
and 2010, 35 natural disasters mainly droughts, floods, cyclones and epidemics have been
recorded in Zimbabwe, resulting in 6 448 deaths (Prevention Web 2012). The total number of
deaths from these natural disasters translates to an average of 208 deaths per year, which is very
high figure that should not be tolerated. Chaminuka and Dube (2017), note that the poor have
been the most vulnerable to disasters in human societies. Although the disasters have been
managed through various ways, the interventions employed by the Zimbabwe government
through Civil Protection Unit, a body mandated with the management of all forms of disasters,
have at times been ineffective owing to lack of use of disaster management models. The concept
of disaster management models, as an aid to deal with hazards and disasters is a practice that
originated some years ago. Some scholars and practitioners argue that models are needed in
order to improve existing systems (Salazar, 2015).
According to Baird (2010), the need for the use of models in disaster management was
first advocated by Kelly in 1998, and since then models have been used to describe, examine,
and understand disasters. Models can as well be used to manage various forms of disasters in
Zimbabwe in order to improve practitioners’ efficiency. This is so because the concern of
governments, disaster managers and other like-minded practitioners has been that disasters have
resulted in huge human, material, economic and environmental losses in the country. According
to Das (2017) adverse shocks or threats to human development in societies can be attributed to
natural disasters as well. Such losses can be averted if the disasters are properly managed.
Globally disasters are occurring in larger scale, calling for policies and measures that analyze
their causes and consequences in order to strengthen the resilience of individuals, communities
and institutions (Hai & Smyth 2012). For example, China, Iran, Russia, Peru and Turkey are
countries enlisted as having the highest number of people killed from earthquake disasters in the
last 60 years (Akdag 2002). It was from such huge impact and massive losses from disasters, that
disaster practitioners and scholars alike, saw it prudent to come up with models as an aid to
managing disasters and other calamitous events.
The aim of disaster management is to reduce or avoid the potential losses from hazards,
to ensure prompt and appropriate assistance to victims of disasters and to achieve rapid and
effective recovery (Othman & Beydoun 2012). Asghar, Alahakoon and Churilov (2006) note that
in 1998, Kelly advocated the need for theoretical models that would help simplify the complexity
of the disaster management system, and possible minimize disaster impact. This was after the
realization that disaster management may involve a large number of players, resulting in chaos,
confusion and conflict if there is no proper model put in place. This is one of the reasons this
study is supporting the adoption of models in the management of disasters in Zimbabwe.
Because of the growing concern about the increasing disaster losses, a number of models for
dealing with disasters have therefore, been added to academic literature, with the models being
categorized into four types encompassing logical models, integrated models, causal models and
models that do not fall under any of these categories (Asghar et al. 2006).
In order to analyze the contribution and usefulness of disaster management models in
Zimbabwe, this study was based on the following three principal objectives:
It is from the above stated objectives, that the study later came up with its findings,
recommendations and conclusions.
disasters in general and in Zimbabwe in particular. As part of the literature study, document
analysis of the most recent scholarly publications was done in order to understand the purpose of
models; common types of models used in managing disasters; and the contribution of models in
managing disasters. These are the principal objectives that this study sought to fulfill. The term
model according to Klein and Romero (2007: 243) refers to ‘a system of functions and
conditions that yield formal results ...’. It is such a system, that this study envisages should exist
in the management of various forms of disasters in Zimbabwe so that the results desired by
practitioners can be achieved.
2.1 The purpose of models in disaster management
Models in disaster management can serve many purposes in shaping many lives in human
societies. One such purpose is that models can simplify one’s understanding of how things
happen, for what purpose and how problems affecting people and their environment can be
solved. Hussain (2013) notes that in the field of disaster management, models are based on the
understanding that disasters are temporary interruptions to development processes, and that the
job of disaster practitioners is to take appropriate action to quickly return to the normal the
course of development. This suggests that models are there to be implemented and enforced by
disaster practitioners, a situation that should be prevailing in a country like Zimbabwe. However
if models are not properly enforced, even good models may turn out to be of little significance.
Kelly (1998) has proffered four major reasons to demonstrate the purpose of models in disaster
management. The reasons are as follows:
1. Models can be used to simplify complex events through distinguishing between critical
elements. The usefulness of models is more realized when there is need to respond to
disasters within a short possible time.
2. Comparing actual conditions with a theoretical model can lead to an improved
understanding of the prevailing disaster situation, and thus facilitating the planning
process and the effective implementation of plans related to disaster management.
3. The presence of a model for disaster management is also an essential element in
quantifying disaster situations or events.
essential emergency services to the disaster affected populations. This phase entails activities
such as search and rescue, distribution of food items, and provision of medication. After the
response phase comes recovery, which is the last stage of the traditional model. Recovery entails
long term actions taken after disaster impact with, a view to restoring infrastructure and services
(Baas, Ramasamy, DePryck & Battista 2008). For example, it entails amongst other programs,
the construction of permanent infrastructure such as houses, dams, roads, and railways.
Critics of the traditional model have however argued that the model seems to focus a lot
on activities for mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. As such, the model seems to
overlook a proper analysis of disaster risks and vulnerabilities in communities. It is further
argued that the model also seems to ignore how to deal with the distribution of resources to the
affected populations. The traditional model can however, be used as a form of intervention
towards managing disasters in Zimbabwe because of its usefulness. The next subsection
discusses the expand-contract model (Figure 2), which some scholars argue was created to cover
some weaknesses of the traditional model.
2.2.2 The expand-contract model
The expand-contract model (Figure 2) challenges the sequential structure of activities
proposed in the traditional model, while advocating for community involvement in disaster
management. Therefore, the model is a community-based disaster management tool, as it
assumes that disasters occur when a hazard overwhelms a vulnerable community.
Source: Atmanand, R. (2003). Insurance and disaster management: The Indian context. Disaster
Prevention and Management, 12(4):286–304. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/0965356 0310493105
According to DPLG-2 (1998), activities in the expand-contract model (Figure 2) can
occur simultaneously, and also continue side by side, expanding or contracting as needed. Each
strand of the model varies, depending on the existing relationship between the hazard and the
community’s conditions of vulnerability. This therefore, suggests that many activities for disaster
interventions can be carried out at the same time when dealing with various disasters in
Zimbabwe. During disasters situations, the expand-contract model highlights that vulnerabilities
of communities are more pronounced than the capacities that the communities possess (Kieft &
Nur 2001). According to Dube (2015), a notable feature of the expand-contract model is that it
overcomes the major weaknesses of the traditional model, which views disasters as managed in a
phased sequence.
However, just like any model the expand-contract model is not without criticism. One
notable limitation of the model is that it explains the parallel nature of activities, without
explaining the cause and effect relationship. Furthermore, the expand-contract model does not
explain the available disaster risks. The weaknesses of the cause and effect perspective that the
expand-contract model ignores, can be addressed by the strengths of the disaster crunch model
(Figure 3). However, despite its weaknesses, the expand-contract model can still be useful in
analyzing disasters in the Zimbabwean context.
2.2.3 The disaster crunch model
The disaster crunch model (Figure 3) has been viewed as a framework of understanding
and analyzing the causes of disasters (ADPC 2000; Heijmans, 2001; Caymaz, 2004). This is one
aspect that the expand-contract model ignores.
According to Blaikie et al (1994), the crunch model (Figure 3) adopts a cause and effect
perspective because of its focus on the causes and impact of disaster. The model is also
understood to analyze vulnerabilities and coping capacities of disaster affected communities.
According to the crunch model (Figure 3), the progression of vulnerability of a
community is revealed. Furthermore, the underlying causes that fail to satisfy the demands of the
people are identified (Asghar et. al 2006). This model goes further to estimate the dynamic
pressures and unsafe conditions (Figure 3). The model is important as it can help practitioners to
understand and react to people’s vulnerability to disasters (Hai & Smyth 2012). It therefore,
explains the relationship between natural hazards and vulnerabilities of communities, making the
model applicable in Zimbabwe disaster situations. Hai and Smyth (2012) assert that the crunch
model helps practitioners to understand and react to disaster vulnerabilities facing people.
According to this model, a disaster happens only when a hazard affects vulnerable people (Hai &
Smyth 2012). Cyr (2005) notes that pressure can be released on those communities vulnerable to
risk by decreasing or eliminating the various root causes, dynamic forces, and/or unsafe
conditions available.
However, the disaster crunch model has also not been spared from criticism of scholars
and practitioners. Turner et al. (2003) have argued that the crunch model lacks the feedback in
the system. Cutter et al. (2008) noted that the model tracks the progression of vulnerability from
the root causes, through to dynamic pressures, and to unsafe conditions, but fails to adequately
address the coupled human–environment system associated with the proximity hazards. Despite
its weaknesses, the advantages of crunch model can be employed to study and understand
hazards and disasters in Zimbabwe.
2.2.3 Kimberly’s model for managing complex disaster events
Kimberly (2003) also came up with a model, which he also condensed to the four phases
of mitigation, preparation, response and recovery (Figure 4).
Recovery
Response
Mitigation Preparation
addition, this study argues that the recovery stage is at the summit to emphasize it as the longest
and costly period of disaster management.
One weakness of the Kimberly model is that it can be used only in specific disaster
situations, as it requires suitably trained employees in order to effectively deal with all the stages
of disaster management. The model also has a bias towards the management of disasters
occurring in health institutions, than in any other contexts (Albtoush et al., 2011). Because of the
bias towards the health sector, the model may suffer a limited scope in the management of
disasters in Zimbabwe as disasters in the country are usually managed through a multi-sectoral
approach. Further, the Kimberly model requires high budget for well trained and skilled
employees. This may be a challenge in Zimbabwe considering that the CPU, which manages all
forms of disasters, is usually ill-resourced financially. As such, the model may not always be
suitable as a disaster intervention in Zimbabwe.
2.3 Are models really useful in disaster management?
Previous research has shown that the usefulness of the models as a tool for effective
disaster management cannot be overemphasized. By comparing actual conditions with a
theoretical model can improve an understanding of disasters, thereby facilitating better planning
and appropriate action. In some situations where disaster management models have been applied,
it has been noted that the models have proved to be relevant and very useful. For instance,
Oxfam has used disaster models as a framework for situation analysis in its guidelines for
Participatory Capacity and Vulnerability Assessment (PCVA) (Hai & Smyth 2012). Models have
also been used in dealing with disasters of high magnitude too. For example, the model of
disaster recovery was applied to deal with the 2010 Maule earthquake and tsunami in Chile, and
the 2011 Van earthquake in Turkey (Platt 2015). This type of model helped the disaster
responders to adopt appropriate decisions in order to effectively and efficiently deal with the
phenomena. Patterson, Weil and Patel (2009) argue that decision-making in a disaster situation is
unique and has great implications for individuals and communities, therefore, models are a good
aid in coming up with good decisions. Such decisions may encompass Meta decisions which are
taken by politicians and policy makers, operational decisions which are made by disaster
managers, and planning decisions which are made by planners (Platt 2015). The above decisions
are also applicable in Zimbabwe when dealing with disasters because politicians, disaster
practitioners and planners all get involved in disaster situations. Therefore, models may be an aid
Kimberly model Gives more importance to the recovery Has bias towards the
stage, followed by response. It places management of disasters
recovery at the top of all the stages and occurring in health institutions
puts preparedness and mitigation at the and requires suitably trained
same level. personnel.
Source: Author
As can be observed, the traditional model is the most common model to most scholars
and practitioners, followed by the expand-contract model (Table 1). The disaster-crunch model is
third, whilst the Kimberly model is the fourth and last common model. Each of the four models
serves different purposes in the field of disaster management. This study found that each model
is unique in its description and approach towards disasters. As such, the limitations associated
with each model are also reflected in the table (Table 1). The hierarchy of the arrangement shows
the level of understanding in which most scholars and practitioners perceive and interpret the
models in the field of disaster management.
Finally, the study found that the first three models can be easily applied to manage
disasters in Zimbabwe, serve for the Kimberly that may be met with certain challenges as it
requires special expertise and special funding.
4.3 The contribution of models in managing disasters in Zimbabwe
This study found that models are a useful and indispensable tool for effective disaster
management in Zimbabwe. They can be used to describe and understand disasters through
simplifying them. These findings agree with the thinking of Platt (2015), who views a model as a
decision-making support tool that can aid in adopting appropriate decisions for dealing with the
disasters effectively. The findings further advance the work of Wada, Wakigawa, Yokomatsu
and Takeya (2014), who found that it was important to develop decision-making supporting tools
in the form of models in order to quantify the impact of disasters. Another finding of the study
was that models were also useful in dealing with past major disaster events. Previous events that
were analyzed included the 2010 Maule earthquake and tsunami in Chile, the 2011 Van
earthquake in Turkey, the 2005 Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in the United States of
America, the 2000 Mozambique flood in Mutara District, and the 1984 Bhopal disaster in India
(Platt 2015). For these events to be dealt with more effectively, the models improved the
understanding of the disaster events and different roles of the stakeholders involved, resulting in
proper planning and implementation of appropriate decisions. This scenario also makes the use
of models suitable for the Zimbabwean situation, in which the CPU allows different stakeholders
to partake in the management of disasters. Therefore, models can make a unique and meaningful
contribution to the management of disasters in Zimbabwe.
However, the study also found that although models are a useful tool for disaster risk
management, good models may be of little significance if there are no meaningful efforts
towards their implementation. For them to be more effective, models need to be properly used,
including being combined so that weaknesses of one model can be outdone by the strengths of
another.
5. Study Recommendations
The following are the recommendations emanating from the findings. The study
recommends that governments, policy-makers, disaster planners and practitioners in Zimbabwe
adopt and effectively use models in managing disasters. It is further recommended that scholars
and practitioners continue to come up with new and improved models that are capable of
addressing contemporary disaster management issues. For them to be more effective, this study
recommends the combined use of disaster management models to address more complex
situations. This study has a potential to inform policy and practice as it may benefit governments,
policy-makers, disaster practitioners and the academe.
6. Research Conclusions
Conclusions may be drawn from this research based on the findings of the study. One
such conclusion is that models can play a significant role in the field of disaster management.
They act as a decision-making support tool before, during and after disaster events. As such their
role cannot be ignored by stakeholders in Zimbabwe. Major decisions, such as Meta decisions by
policy-makers, planning decisions by disaster planners and operational decisions by disaster
managers can be effectively influenced by the use of models. The study further concluded that
the Kimberly model may not be ideal in less developed countries like Zimbabwe, because of its
heavy reliance on huge budgets, high level of expertise and its bias towards health institutions.
The Zimbabwean situation, which is characterized by different kinds of disasters, needs models
that are relevant to all forms of disasters. This study also concluded that a close relationship
exists between the various models of disaster management. For instance, all the models aim to
help in minimizing disaster impact. Furthermore, the models are similar as many of them are
based on the main phases of mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Again, each model
for disaster management is crafted in such a way that it endeavors to correct the shortcomings of
earlier model or models. As such, one other major conclusion of the study was that new models
in the field of disaster management are a panacea and should continue to be proposed. The
strengths of new models would help to make up for weaknesses of older r models. However, no
matter how good a model for disaster management may be, the study concluded that models may
not serve their purpose unless there is commitment towards their implementation. This study
therefore, strongly concludes that the use of models to manage disasters is a step towards the
right trajectory for disaster management practitioners.
7. Competing interests
The author declares that he has no financial or personal relationship which may have
inappropriately influenced him in writing this article.
8. Disclaimer
The author declares that the paper in whole has not been previously published and is not
under consideration elsewhere.
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