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    Blank For Seasonality Forecasting - Naura Zahrania

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    Naura Zahrania
    The document shows weekly sales data and calculates various error metrics like mean absolute percentage error to evaluate a linear regression model forecasting sales. It then shows monthly demand data and linear trend and seasonal forecasts over a 4 year period. Finally, it graphs the seasonal trend with R-squared value to evaluate fit of the seasonal forecasting model.

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    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Blank For Seasonality Forecasting - Naura Zahrania

    Uploaded by

    Naura Zahrania
    23 views10 pages
    The document shows weekly sales data and calculates various error metrics like mean absolute percentage error to evaluate a linear regression model forecasting sales. It then shows monthly demand data and linear trend and seasonal forecasts over a 4 year period. Finally, it graphs the seasonal trend with R-squared value to evaluate fit of the seasonal forecasting model.

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    Blank for Seasonality Forecasting _ Naura Zahrania

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    The document shows weekly sales data and calculates various error metrics like mean absolute percentage error to evaluate a linear regression model forecasting sales. It then shows monthly demand data and linear trend and seasonal forecasts over a 4 year period. Finally, it graphs the seasonal trend with R-squared value to evaluate fit of the seasonal forecasting model.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    23 views10 pages

    Blank For Seasonality Forecasting - Naura Zahrania

    Uploaded by

    Naura Zahrania
    The document shows weekly sales data and calculates various error metrics like mean absolute percentage error to evaluate a linear regression model forecasting sales. It then shows monthly demand data and linear trend and seasonal forecasts over a 4 year period. Finally, it graphs the seasonal trend with R-squared value to evaluate fit of the seasonal forecasting model.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    of 10

    WEEK SALES 3-Month Moving Average Error │Error│ Error

    1 39
    2 44
    3 40
    4 45 41 4 4 16
    5 38 43 -5 5 25
    6 43 41 2 2 4
    7 39 42 -3 3 9
    8 40
    14 54
    3.5 13.5
    MAD MSE
    │% Error│

    8.89%
    13.16%
    4.65%
    7.69%

    34.39%
    8.60%
    MAPE
    WEEK SALES
    1 39
    Regretion - Naura zahrania
    2 41 46
    3 40 45
    4 42 44 f(x) = 0.892857142857143 x + 38.2857142857143
    5 43 43 R² = 0.897988505747126
    6 43 42
    7 45 41
    8 45.4
    40
    52 84.7
    39
    38
    37
    36
    0 1 2 3 4 5 6
    on - Naura zahrania

    57143 x + 38.2857142857143
    7126

    4 5 6 7 8
    periode Year Month Demand linear trend forecast seasonal forecast with trend
    1 2014 January 233 191.68 206.76
    2 February 223 195.44 203.22
    3 March 208 199.19 195.52
    4 April 195 202.95 188.96
    5 May 197 206.71 194.06
    6 June 196 210.46 196.77
    7 July 212 214.22 213.59
    8 August 219 217.98 223.27
    9 September 225 221.73 232.28
    10 October 219 225.49 230.96
    11 November 196 229.24 214.33
    12 December 230 233.00 248.61
    13 2015 January 266 236.76 255.38
    14 February 256 240.51 250.09
    15 March 241 244.27 239.76
    16 April 228 248.03 230.92
    17 May 230 251.78 236.38
    18 June 229 255.54 238.91
    19 July 245 259.30 258.54
    20 August 252 263.05 269.44
    21 September 258 266.81 279.51
    22 October 252 270.56 277.13
    23 November 229 274.32 256.47
    24 December 263 278.08 296.71
    25 2016 January 334 281.83 304.00
    26 February 324 285.59 296.96
    27 March 309 289.35 284.01
    28 April 296 293.10 272.89
    29 May 298 296.86 278.70
    30 June 297 300.62 281.05
    31 July 313 304.37 303.49
    32 August 320 308.13 315.61
    33 September 326 311.89 326.73
    34 October 320 315.64 323.31
    35 November 297 319.40 298.61
    36 December 331 323.15 344.81
    37 2017 January 326.91 352.63
    38 February 330.67 343.83
    39 March 334.42 328.25
    40 April 338.18 314.86
    41 May 341.94 321.01
    42 June 345.69 323.20
    43 July 349.45 348.43
    44 August 353.21 361.78
    45 September 356.96 373.95
    46 October 360.72 369.48
    47 November 364.47 340.76
    48 December 368.23 392.91
    187.92
    3.7564

    January 1.078666
    February 1.039819
    March 0.981547
    April 0.931046
    May 0.938815
    June 0.93493
    July 0.997086
    August 1.02428
    September 1.047588
    October 1.02428
    November 0.93493
    December 1.067012

    Chart Title
    400

    350

    300 f(x) = 50.5 x − 101479.833333333


    R² = 0.961511876335302
    250

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    100

    50

    0
    2013.5 2014 2014.5 2015 2015.5

    sesasonal trend - nama


    450

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    January
    February
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    2014

    July
    August
    September
    October
    November
    December
    January
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    2015

    July
    Column D

    August
    September
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    December
    January
    February
    Column E

    March
    April
    May
    June
    2016

    July
    August
    Column F

    September
    October
    November
    December
    January
    February
    March
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    May
    June
    2017

    July
    Title

    5 2015.5 2016 2016.5


    F
    September
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    2017
    July
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    November
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