Multiphase Flowing BHP Prediction
Multiphase Flowing BHP Prediction
Review
Vol 30, No. 2, 2022
Transylvanian Review
Centrul de Studii Transilvane| str. Mihail Kogalniceanu nr. 12-14, et.5, Cluj-Napoca
Email: [email protected]
Online Submission System: http://transylvanianreviewjournal.com/
Ugochukwu I. Duru et al. Transylvanian Review: Vol 30, No. 2, August 2022
ABSTRACT
Computer intelligent models are the order of the day for the manipulation of data to better understand the trend
of complex situations under the questioned industry. The petroleum industry is faced with multiple datasets from
production logging tools, and predictive analysis without these computer intelligent tools can be devastating. Errors
of margins under these circumstances cannot be easily prevented, which may eventually lead to some biases in the
decision-making processes, thereby affecting the cost of operations and services in the industry. The proposed
computer intelligent models aimed at providing the best predictive analysis that was subjected through MATLAB
machine learning; model fitting-multilinear regression and deep learning; artificial neural network under the
feedforward function. This study however used an open-source dataset from a production well logging tool to evaluate
and affirm the accuracy of a computer intelligent model, suitable for processing complex problems. The predictive
analysis whiles considering the coefficient of determination ( R2) for these two models resulted that, the artificial neural
network feedforward function was better in predicting the flowing bottom-hole pressures at an R2 valued at 0.9787
than the multilinear regression whose R2 was valued at 0.6830. For a more accurate assessment of the performance
of the suggested models, the validation of this study took into account certain prior literature under a comparison data
analytical outcome. Multiphase flowing bottom-hole pressures considering Navier-Stokes equations can further be
computed using CFD under a finite element analysis to determine pressure drop differentials, predicting flow patterns
and geometry to enhance prudent decision-making analysis.
Keywords: MATLAB, Artificial Neural Network, Multilinear Regression, Machine Learning, Multiphase Fluid Flow,
Flowing Bottom-Hole Pressure
Corresponding author: [email protected]
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Ugochukwu I. Duru et al. Transylvanian Review: Vol 30, No. 2, August 2022
as a preferred alternative to first principal equations available data when compared with commonly used
for predictions purposes. Machine Learning (ML) correlations in the petroleum industry. More realistic
algorithm has been used (Bhandari et al., 2015; multiphase flow characteristics using ML algorithms
Castiñeira et al., 2018; Dunlop et al., 2011; Noshi & compared with existing correlations has been used in
Schubert, 2018) in improving drilling operations, while predictions (Seong et al., 2020), (Simcenter STAR-
(F. Anifowose et al., 2017; F. A. Anifowose et al., 2017a, CCM+, 2021).
2017b; Esmaili & Mohaghegh, 2016; Hassanvand et al., Computational analysis to the prediction (Abdul-
2018; K. Liu et al., 2021; Ossai & Duru, 2021; Putcha Majeed et al., 2022) of the flowing bottom-hole pressure
& Ertekin, 2018; Salem et al., 2019; Sina et al., 2016) are by far seen to be relevant by the use of neural
applied it in the area of petroleum reservoirs, as well networks and multi-linear regressions (MLR)
as in petroleum exploration (Syed, Alnaqbi, et al., (Mamudu et al., 2021; E.-S. A. Osman, 2001;
2021). It is evident that, this approach can be employed Ponomareva et al., 2021; Sami & Ibrahim, 2021) based
to access information for decision-making in reservoir on sampled field data employed from carbonate
management (Rathnayake et al., 2022a). reservoirs. A decrease in flowing bottom-hole pressure
Down-hole conventional or smart tools used for is an increase in multiphase (oil, water and gas) flow,
gauging and measuring pressures in oil and gas wells however this depends solely on the flow geometry and
are sometimes unanimously inaccurate. More so, the properties of the fluid understudy (Firouzi &
analytics of these data gives a concise usage of the Rathnayake, 2019). In comparison to conventional
variables relating it to another for a meaningful wells, unconventional wells multiphase flow has a
prediction of flowing bottom-hole pressures. significant variation in terms of interfacial interactions
These gauges are as well very expensive to employ of fluids, depth and time accounts for various flow
and needs further expertise (Patel et al., 2014) to work regimes (Firouzi & Rathnayake, 2019; Wu et al., 2019).
and analyze results (D’Almeida et al., 2022). Being a Data is essential for analytical predictions
multiphase fluid flow, chances of producing fine grains (Barrufet et al., 1995), the computational intelligent
(sand) along with the reservoir fluid exists. This application had been seen creeping (Andrianova et al.,
scenario could cause sand erosion and/or partial 2018; Nikitin et al., 2022) into the petroleum industry
blockage of the pipe due to these fine grains and (Kern & Nicholson, 1965), solving complex problems
adversely affect the down-hole measuring tools related to operations and management. In the early
resulting in low accurate readings (Marshall & 21st century, the data compiled from fields of seismic
Thomas, 2015). The use of these gauges affects operations, EOR, and IOR (Tariq et al., 2020a) were
petroleum production negatively (Awadalla et al., handled simply by super computers with suitable
2016; Feng et al., 2016), suggesting more realistic graphic user interface (Makhotin et al., 2022). The
method of predicting FBHP for optimum production. forecast by this intelligence (Memon et al., 2015),
With available adequate production information reduces the equational errors that poses threats
from well test, according to (Economi, n.d.), flowing (Nwachukwu et al., 2018) to the production of flowing
bottom-hole pressure (FBHP) can be predicted from the fluids in the wellbore (Luo et al., 2018). More so, the
wellhead pressure. But, as an important factor as analytics of these data gives a concise usage of the
FBHP in multiphase flow pressure drop predictions, its variables relating it to another for a meaningful
accuracy cannot be compromised. The work by (E. S. A. prediction of flowing bottom-hole pressures.
Osman & Aggour, 2002) confirmed ML can actually Computational simulation tools (Khudaier et al.,
predict multiphase pressure drop with very high 2020) such as artificial neural networks are used in
accuracy. Multiphase flow predictive models developed solving non-linear problems, originating from the
by different authors using ML in the recent time gave theory of biological neurons (Graves et al., 2009). The
better performance and realistic result than existing study, (Bahaa et al., 2019) predicted accurate flowing
empirical or numerical models; (Ristanto, 2018) bottom-hole pressures without having to use expensive
considered ML performance in dynamic environment tools for measurement and analysis. Prediction from
like multiphase flow more realistic than physical artificial neuron network (ANN) were considered from
models, another study (Babanezhad et al., 2020) used a data set obtained from production logging tools, the
adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) due to model yielded good results (Ahmed & Ayoub, 2014;
its capability in training complex relationships. Sircar et al., 2021b). Accordingly, (Tariq, 2018),
Different multiphase flow algorithms have been used considered the use of ANN for prediction in vertical
to predict two-phase flowrate against challenges with wells by comparing previous predicted results
individual phase measurements in the past (Wang et emanating (Hørsholt et al., 2019) from production data.
al., 2020). Some researchers (Lin et al., 2020), The survey from further research conducted in
predicted preferred flow pattern for upward inclined literature and methods (al Shehri et al., 2020;
pipes with deep learning neural network using Ponomareva et al., 2021; Rathnayake et al., 2022b),
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Ugochukwu I. Duru et al. Transylvanian Review: Vol 30, No. 2, August 2022
Multilinear Regression
The complexity of the dataset requires a
multilinear relationship of the nine independent
variables (x) and a dependent variable (y) as shown in
Table 1. The relationship of these two; actual variables
x was used to predict the values of y, flowing bottom-
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Ugochukwu I. Duru et al. Transylvanian Review: Vol 30, No. 2, August 2022
(2)
Where 𝑥 is a predictive vector, 𝜖, is an error term, independent variables, x (input) through to a series of
𝛽𝑜 and 𝛽 are simulation of estimated parameters based hidden layers to a dependent variable, y (output).
on the data provided (Firouzi & Rathnayake, 2019; Therefore, the relationship to this is given by Eq. 3; y
Rathnayake et al., 2022b). Ordinary least squares = f(x1𝜃)
(OLS) is a method for estimating model parameters Eq. 3 is for the case of a multilayer function, and
that minimizes the sum of squares differences between Eq. 4 illustrates the output of the 1st layer, where g, bj
observed and fitted values. However, a technique to and wj are hyperbolic tangent, bias and the inputs of x
improve bias-variance, automatic variable selection, respectively.
using predictive analysis in Eq. 2 can be used to further
penalize or evaluate OLS results (Tibshirani, 1996). (3)
The illustration in Fig. 1 is the structural
Artificial Neural Networks framework or flow chat of how the ANN-feedforward
Flowing bottom-hole pressures (FBHP) were not function worked which contained nine inputs, one
only analyzed by multilinear regressions but a hidden layer with 30 neurons and an output. The
feedforward neural network was applied. The resilient neural network relationship of the input layer and the
network had a complex data to analyze, this multilayer hidden layer is the sigmoidal transfer function, and the
function sort to perform and handle non-linear network function between the hidden layer and the
relationships. In simple terms, the neural network of output is purely linear.
feedforward function processes or models the
Layer 2: 30 neurons, hidden
layers
Gas flow rate
Tubing ID
Flowing Bottom-Hole Pressure
Depth (FBHP)
Oil gravity
Surface Temperature
nth
Layer 3: Output layers
Bottom Temperature
Layer 1: 9 inputs
(a)
(b)
Fig. 1 FBHP Structural Neuron Networks (a) ANN-Flow Chart (b) ANN-Matlab
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Comparative Predictive Analysis takes the distance from points to the regression line
The assessment of the best model for predictions (the errors) and squares them. The steps involved in
were considered based on; Mean Square Error (MSE), calculating the mean square errors were:
Root Mean Square Error (RMS), Mean Absolute Error
(MAE), Median Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), i. Find the regression line
and Coefficient of Determination ( R2), while the ii. Insert the X values into the regression equation
emphasis of the comparative analysis was based on to find the new Y values
Coefficient of Determination. iii. Subtract the new Y value from the original to
get the error
Mean Square Error (MSE): iv. Square the errors
Mean square error also known as the mean square v. Add the errors
deviation is the average squared difference between vi. Find the mean
the estimated value and the actual value (Eq. 5). It Mathematically,
𝟏
𝐌𝐒𝐄 = 𝐧
∗ (𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥 − 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭)2 (4)
Mean Absolute Error (MAE): It is the absolute value of the difference between an
This is the absolute error measured between observed value of a quantity and the true value (Eq. 7).
paired observations expressing the same phenomenon. Mathematically,
𝐧
𝟏
𝐌𝐀𝐄 = ∗ |𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 − 𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞| (6)
𝐧
𝐢=𝟏
Coefficient of Determination (R2) model; this determines the extent of accuracy of the
This examines how the difference in one variable data. However, when the relationship of the data is
can be explained by the discrepancy in a second said to be closer to one, a higher degree of accuracy is
variable when predicting the outcome of any given achieved.
event (Eq. 9) and it is the base for every regression
all inclusive as against the outcome, where the actual from pressure of 2000 psi to 3,000 psi; this was an
FBHP was used against the predicted FBHP. The indication of an increase in flow rate due to an increase
scattered diagram from Fig. 2 demonstrates a in pressure. But the desired pressure was spotted to be
multiphase flow of liquid and gas with the influence of centered around 2300 psi to 2,800 psi under a high
tubing size, depth, pressure, temperature and gravity. dispersity rate.
However, the flow pattern on the graph was seen rising
The coefficient of determination (adjusted R2) was measure of accuracy as shown by MATLAB statistical
valued at 0.6830; this explains the rate of predictive measure in Table 3.
Artificial Neural Network (ANN- demonstrated in Fig. 3. It could be seen that the
FEEDFORWARD) dispersion of the flow is closely narrowed on the
This predictive computational method was used to diagonal line, and flow is also spotted increasing at an
analyze flowing bottom-hole pressures using the increase in pressure. The central mass flow rates were
feedforward function. The analysis was drawn based on positioned between 1,900 psi to 2,700 psi. However, any
the predictor variables under same wellbore pressure beyond this point would reduce the
conditions. The actual flowing bottom hole pressures production.
were matched against the predictive values as
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The coefficient of determination ( R2) for this demonstrated in Fig. 4. This further explains the rate
trained and tested data was valued at 0.9787 as of predictive measure accuracy in Table 4.
As the anticipated and actual values were difference between two calculated numbers was
compared at the output layer, an error defined as the however conveyed back to the layers in order to fine-
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tune the weights and biases in order to improve the with progressive training runs, ANN amends
system's predictive competence as shown in Fig. 5. iteratively and improves.
Epoch is the name given to this iteration process, and
Also, whiles the datasets were being trained and value of -8.517 on the x-axis. The yellow line in the
tested, the feedforward function from the neural error histogram is the zero error, and as the training
network plotted an error distribution histogram in Fig. dataset rises to 50 on the y-axis, the validation and
6. This was the difference in errors between the target testing fall within 50 and 60 respectively, which
values and the predicted or output values; meaning means, the error was within the range of the sampled
that, the values predicted were drifting away from the dataset.
targeted values and thereby resulting in a negative
EMPIRICAL, MLR AND ANN MODELS in order to determine which model was better for
Several authors have attempted to develop predicting flowing bottom-hole pressure. The stream of
appropriate coefficients of determination using a models employed utilizes the vigorous coefficient of
mathematical and logical approach of training, determination (R2) for analysis based on same datasets
validating, and testing datasets. This study's proposed used by these authors, as shown in Table 5.
models were compared and assessed for discrepancies
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Coefficient of Determination
1/2
1
0/8
0/6
0/4
0/2
0
ANN_ proposed
MLR_ Proposed
Chokshi
Gomez
Ansari
Orkiszewski
Kabir and Hasan
Tariq
An empirical approach for determining the operations. The potency of these employed computer
coefficient of determination in 1986 was 0.7502 (Kabir intelligent models has by far exhibited a quick review
& Hasan, 1986) as shown in Table 5, which was an of what to expect in the wellbore, reducing the cost of
improvement on (Orkiszewski & Houston, 1967) of an engaging well pressure surveyors in the industry.
R2 of 0.9015. In comparison as demonstrated in Figure The objectivity of reaching the desired result and
7 (Orkiszewski & Houston, 1967), the statistical affirming which computer intelligent model was
analysis of this study using MLR yielded a suitable for the predictive analysis of the production
substantially lower R2 value of 0.6830, and ANN at a logging tool was noted to have been the feedforward
most efficient value of 0.9787. The result obtained in function from the artificial neural network, with a
the work (Tariq et al., 2020b) using the particle swarm coefficient of determination R2 of 0.9787, however, the
optimization ANN (PSO_ANN) model, achieved the multilinear regression gave a less accurate adjusted R2
highest and most efficient R2 of 0.9830. The disparity value of 0.6830 in predicting FBHP. The result
between this study’s MLR, ANN, the PSO-ANN and obtained from the feedforward ANN was very close to
empirical models, on the other hand, reveals the most Tariq’s PSO_ANN model result of 0.9830 and supports
successful forecasting model for FBHP. the claim of (Ossai & Duru, 2021) of ANN performance
over other AI techniques dues it’s high accuracy.
Discussion and Conclusions The cost effectiveness to running sophisticated
logging tools had been greatly achieved by the
This study using big data from the production application of an accurate predictive computer
wells considered a computational analysis approach to intelligent model using a real time production logging
monitor and predict the likely event of maximizing oil data.
production by predicting flowing bottom-hole pressures We do recommend further research on the
to support and eliminate the biased decision taken influence of each flowrate on fluid dynamics with
during well completion and petroleum production
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Ugochukwu I. Duru et al. Transylvanian Review: Vol 30, No. 2, August 2022
respect to the temperature differences using same Abou-Sayed, A. (2012). Data Mining Applications in
production logging data in the wellbore. the Oil and Gas Industry. Journal of Petroleum
Flowing bottom-hole pressure can further be Technology, 64(10), 88–95.
exploited through a 3D surface plot and from a https://doi.org/10.2118/1012-0088-jpt
computational fluid dynamic outlook, identifying and Ahmadi, M. A., & Chen, Z. (2019). Machine learning
validation pressure drops using Navier-Stokes models to predict bottom hole pressure in multi-
equation. phase flow in vertical oil production wells.
Canadian Journal of Chemical Engineering,
Acknowledgements 97(11), 2928–2940.
https://doi.org/10.1002/CJCE.23526
We acknowledge all the authors whose scientific Ahmed, M. M., & Ayoub, M. A. (2014). A
research work was cited in this study for their Comprehensive Study on the Current Pressure
contribution to the body of knowledge. Drop Calculation in Multiphase Vertical Wells;
Current Trends and Future Prospective. In
Declaration Journal of Applied Sciences (Vol. 14, Issue 23, pp.
3162–3171).
Funding https://doi.org/10.3923/jas.2014.3162.3171
The authors declare that this study did not receive al Shehri, F. H., Gryzlov, A., al Tayyar, T., & Arsalan,
funds from any governmental, private, or non-profit M. (2020). Utilizing machine learning methods to
funding bodies. estimate flowing bottom-holepressure in
unconventional gas condensate tight sand
Conflict of Interest fractured wells in Saudi Arabia. Society of
We hereby state that there are no known Petroleum Engineers - SPE Russian Petroleum
competing financial interests or personal ties that Technology Conference 2020, RPTC 2020.
could have influenced the research presented in this https://doi.org/10.2118/201939-MS
study. Ali, J. K. (1994). Neural networks: A new tool for the
petroleum industry? Society of Petroleum
Code availability Engineers - European Petroleum Computer
The code used in this study is available on request. Conference 1994, EPCC 1994, 233–242.
Credit Authorship Contribution Statement https://doi.org/10.2523/27561-ms
Ugochukwu I. Duru: Conceptualization, Anderson, R. N. (2017). “Petroleum Analytics Learning
Methodology, Formal analysis, Writing - review & Machine” for optimizing the Internet of Things of
editing and Supervision. Dennis Wayo: Methodology, today’s digital oil field-to-refinery petroleum
Data curation, Formal analysis, Writing - original system. Proceedings - 2017 IEEE International
draft. Reginal Ogu: Methodology, Data curation, Conference on Big Data, Big Data 2017 , 2018-
Formal analysis and Investigation and Writing - Janua, 4542–4545.
original draft. Chidera Cyril and Happiness C. Nnani: https://doi.org/10.1109/BigData.2017.8258496
Conceptualization, Coding, Investigation and Writing Andrianova, A., Simonov, M., Perets, D., Margarit, A.,
– original draft. Serebryakova, D., Bogdanov, Y., Budennyy, S.,
Volkov, N., Tsanda, A., & Bukharev, A. (2018).
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