22 Operational disruptions Causes, strategies, and consequences Peter J. Bruce Introduction ‘As alluded to in the introductions to Parts II and II, normal operations should reflect the conduct of a series of flights that operate according to published schedules that passengers, other stakeholders, and sta! expect, Unfortunately, it is rare that on any given day an airline would operate a series of flights withot the interruption of some scheduled, disrupted or irregular operations (IROPS). ‘This chapter examines the wealth of problems that airlines experience, strategies that the IOC! may. ‘use to mitigate them, and the consequential effects. In Chapter 8, the IOC was deseribed and its key purpose and functions explained. The current chapter deseribes the problems faced daily by the IOC, while the following chapter explains in further detail specific management approaches and tools to solving ‘operational problems. These three chapters together should provide the reader with a fairly comprehensive understanding of the ways in which an aitline's IOC aims to provide the expected level of service. ‘oblem. Such int ns ate known as of Operational complexity “Aviation is highly complexindustey—it ie very exciting but alsovery challenging. "The IOC is provided each day with a set of schedules. As described in the frst parts of the book, the airline has also painstakingly formulated plans and amassed resources to reflect the intention of operating flights according to these planned schedules. So, there should be a fleet of fully prepared aircraft (appropriately ‘maintained and legally permitted to fly), suflicient erews (Technical, Plots, and Flight Attendants) who are licensed, trained, rostered and adequately rested, airport and terminal resources, an air traffic system ready to accept and progress the flight through relevant airspace, and so forth, This will help to ensure the fight departs fies and arrives according to the schedule. “Add to this the multicultural complications of flyingthrough several countries, changing time zones, enduring fitigue, communicating across different ccultures, or being ficed with a host of challenges, and it can be appreciated just how difficult the task of operating these flights can become. A significant324 Peter]. Bruce characteristic ofthe aviation industry is the nature of its unpredictability? Wh is expected to happen with the amount of planning and preparation that takes place, often bears little resemblance to actual events unfolding. [OC controllers ‘wath many years’ experience still encounter situations they have not come across belore, Sometimes this may be a feature of operating new aircraft equipment, operating into new regions or airports, or coming across a scenario they had never previously faced. Nature of domestic operations Domestic schedules ~ those planned to operate within a single country —have a ‘They tend (with exceptions) to number of characteristics of relevance to 10 exhibit the following. + There isa high frequency of lights between city-pairs, and spread over the domestic network. + The high frequency of flights implies that there are several backup flights between city-pairs, which provide options for recovery in the event of IROPS, snd help to retain passengers within the network, + Aircraft may fly eight to ten sectors per day. + Many aircraft are of a low to medium cap: aircraft such as the B737 or A320) + Aircraft performance problems (Gaking into account airport restrictions, payload and fuel limits) are less likely + There isa high level of connectivity among flights. + Flights are generally contained within the calendar day, with some exceptions of overnight (redeye) flights + Maintenance servicing bases are dispersed around the network, + Maintenance work is generally conducted overnight when the majority the fleet is not flying. + The utilization of these aircraft is tight, in order to optimize the fleet units yy (Le, often narrow-bodied extensively, and due to the generally small size of aircraft, short turnaround times (6, thirty-five minutes) can be scheduled. + Crewing bases are dispersed around the network so replacement crews are readily available + Backup or standby aircraft may be available in some airlines that market, for instance, cty-to-city shuttle services. rise toa number of issues for domestic controllers a degree of flexibility given the access to numerous aircraft in or passing through certain ports. However, the complexity of operation and sheer volume of flying builds an intensity in the network that requi sntion to the dynamic performance of the 1 required for problem assessing and solving, and actioning of solutions in the event of IROPS vork and significant speedOperational disruptions 325 Nature of international operations ‘Compared with domestic schedules, international schedules have quite different characteristics and tend to exhibit the following (again, with exceptions). + There is a low frequency of fights spread between city-pairs with fewer backup flights, so competitors’ operations may contribute more to recovery solutions in the event of IROPS, + Aircraft may only fly one to two sectors per day, but these are often of longer duration (¢-g., PEK-LHR), requiring ‘heavy’ crews (additional pilots due to required rest breaks) + Aircraft are often large wide-body types (such as the A350, B777) operating. Tonger-range flights with higher weights (payload and fuel), + Some operations (e.g., ETOPS ~ extended operations - very long range) are marginal, especially operating long range into destinations with weather problems (e.., fog) + Subject to the carrier, there may be significant network connectivity, or relatively little, For example, major carriers with a sizeable international hub such as Emirstes or Singapore rely heavily on connectivity for international on-carriage, with networks such as Qantas or Air New Zealand less dependent on international comnectivity but very much reliant on international/domestic connections. + Maintenance bases are limited and maintenance assistance may be sought from other airlines + Maintenance work may be conducted at any time of the day subject to aircraft availability. + Longer turnaround times are required on the ground to service, fuel and smaintain the larger aircraft. + Crewing bases are dispersed around the world so replacement crews may. be difficult to access. + In very large aircraft such as the A380, many customers are involved, so any. disruptions involving accommodation and/or buses become considerable. + There isa high reliance on third-party contracts for most activities (not only engineering and ground handling, but areas such as check-in staff, etc). [As part of a third-party contract, there are often clauses around disruption, ‘management support and ways in which the contract may be influenced by. the rosters and staffing levels of third parties, Problem-solving and decision-making for controllers dealing with international IROPS is therefore quite different from those dealing with domestic IROPS. With less access to maintenance labour and parts, and fewer available crews, there is less flexibility for recovering from IROPS events, so the ‘options for instigating various recovery plans are fewer. While the timeframe for decisionemaking is greater than for domestic problems, the more limited solutions can have significantly greater impact on a set of flights and passengers.326. Peter]. Bruce In some cases, the pattern of flying planned for the aircraft may be of several days’ duration, and an IROPS event may affect the pattern across this extended time, with implications for future flying patterns planned for that sircrat Schedule integrity and robustness “Thereadinessofaday'snetworkschedulesforhandovertocurrent-day operational control (ie. the IOC) implies that, barring any disruption whatsoever and assuming no detrimental environmental, human or organizational imterference or any other conditions apply to the operations, all lights are potentially capable of operating to schedule with the booked passenger, cargo and any other loads. In this ideal world, the IOC would act as a monitoring station only, with little need for interjection, OF course, in the real world, such a Because of this, several contingencies are built into the airline system, reserves are rostered in case of sickness or unavailability, spare part strategically around a network, and additional fuel is carried to cater for changes in air traffie, weather or other requirements. Some airlines (usually large ones) are fortunate enough to have an operational spare aircraft or two that can be called upon if ceded. This additional asset becomes very usefil af wt can be deployed into an area of significant disruption provided other support such as crews are also available. But it also carries with it the cost scheduled for revenue earning. Thus, there is a commercial versus operational dilemma for airline management to consid ‘An airline's schedules are often built with excess block time included (time locks to on-blocks, as distinct fom flight time) in order to absorb minor delays to a flight, enabling a late departing flight to arrive at its destinat ye. This buflering creates greater robustness in the schedules and a better on-time performance for th airline, and as airspace and airports have become increasingly congested, the bbullering of schedules has also increased, The downside of this, howev' joss in wiilzation ofthe fleet as fewer flights can be allocated into a specific pattern, Attention now turns to the myriad of problems that cause airline disruptions. “The materials on causation are presented in two parts to demonstrate differences between problems that may occur before an aircraft departs and those that may occur when th docs not exis are located measured from off m on of ahead of the scheduled arrival sircrat i aitborne, Causes of disruptions — pre-flight ‘There are numerous causes of disruptions prior to departure that can lead to TROPS. Subject to the location around the world, the season of the year, the time of day and so forth, probably the most challenging cause of disruptions is ‘weather. Arguably; the next significant causes are likely to be due to maintenance, crewing and Air Tfallic Control (ATC) influences, Often itis not a matter of a single event delaying a light, rather it s that one event might be the root catse, ‘which results in a series of problems that compound the disruption. For example:Operational disruptions 327 During flight planning, an «3 issue is anticipated, requiring a new plan to be produced that reroutes the Hight via another aisport. In tura, this causes the crew to exceed their duty hours and the first available replacement crew results in a delay of several hours, which prompts an alert ths flight of the pattern would then break curfew atthe final destination! east Weather ‘Weather causes the most disruptions largely due to severity of problems Forecasting conditions such as fog, winds, high temperatures, thunderstorms, tomados, cyclones, etc. has become extremely accurate, such that airlines can plan around these events in many cases. However, their occurrence is still likely tw interfere with operations and often the duration or severity of the occurrence exceeds expectations. With sufficient warning, IOCs develop a series of plans to manage such events. ve Fog is probably the most difficult condition to predict accurately, especially its formation and dissipation rates. Sometimes cloud existe above the fog, increasing the time for fog to be burnt’ off. Departing airports with fog is not so much a problem provided minimum visibility requirements (such as number of visible runway lights) on the ground are met, But fora flight about to operate into an airport with forecast fog, [OCs have a number of options. Depending con the above factors, the IOC may elect for the flight to depart on schedule, but ‘uplift additional fael stich that the aircraft is able to make a normal approach if conditions permit, or have sulicient fuel to hold (over or near the airport) ‘until conditions improve. The fuel carried would ideally permit holding for a specified time (e,, one hour), perhaps including an attempted approach or two, then diversion to a nominated airport, Another option for the IOC is to hold the flight on the ground at the origin port until the fog has begun to dissipate cor at least until an updated forecast predicts the fog dissipating at a given time. "The costs of holding and burning fuel often determine the preferred action, but sometimes the forecast cannot predict events as desired. Winds ‘Winds catsse operational problems in a number of ways. Aircraft commonly take-off and land using a runway best oriented to prevailing wind conditions where possible (subject to aircraft performance, runway availability, runway length, etc). So strong winds aligned with the runway direction do not generally pose an operational problem. However, strong winds in the vicinity of airports ‘may cause up- or downdrafts resulting in wind shear, in which case aireraft may not be able to operate at the airport. Airlines develop policies and contingencies328 Peter. Bruce in the event of wind shear, For instance, this may consist of having one attempt sn approach and an immediate diversion if wind shear is detect Crosswinds, however, can catsse problems as each aircraft has a maximum tolerance (prescribed by the manufacturer) for operating in these conditions. In ‘operational control terms, ifan airport has a selection of runways that overcome crosswind restrictions, then flights can operate normally. However, ifthe sirpo has a single runway, and crosswinds exceed the maximum tolerance, an aircr may not be able to use the airport. This is exacerbated ifthe airport is a remote airport, especially with the closest alternate airport some considerable distance xy. In Australia, for example, Alice Springs and Mouint Isa are wo such airports Even in main, large airports, ifthe wind directions negate the use of the cross runways (ie., reduce to single runway operations), the normal ATC or operating traflic capacity ofthe airport may be cut by as much as fifty pe Strong en-route headwinds that are forecast and hence taken into account during flight planning stages may also be a source of operational disruption. “There may be a mumber of options in this case, The longer planned flight time may require the aircraft to uplift additional fuel with or without a compensatory payload offload so the Hight can still operate direct (as scheduled). The decision whether to do this by offloading cargo, baggage or even some passeny debatable. An alternative option may be to operate the flight via an interim port ‘without any offloads. This option may preserve the payload, but the schedule ‘will be compromised, with possible consequence for downline flights and passenger and crew connections. flow rates Thunderstorm activity For flights yet to depart, isolated thunderstorms at the origin, en rouite, oF at the destination may cause some disruption to schedules, and additional fxel (determined atthe light planning stage) would usually enable the aircraft to avoid the storms by diverting around them and/or holding for short times either on the ground or in the air. However, significant lines of thunderstorms im systems that are several kilometres wide, high and deep wall induc ‘whether or when aircraft can operate in the locality: Certainly, planning for sich, operations will entail additional fuse! requirements and selection of alternate routes and diversion airports that will enable aircraft to operate, subject to the extent of the systems, Lightning in the vicinity of airports usually mandates the cessation of all ground activities, including all unloading and loading. Thus an sircralt can be held on-gate of, worse, off-gate whilst lightning persists the decision as to Snow Extensive snow events are usually predictable and, as such, airlines will have already put into place significant contingency plans xt least the day or some days belore. These plans are formidable, often removing numerous patterns of flying from the schedules. Lighter snow events on the current day may rest in snow-Operational disruptions 329 clearing processes along runways and taxiways. Operational delays then become a function of the resources available and elficiency in keeping the airport open. In some cases, unseasonal or rare snowstorms may close airports which have less capability to maintain full operations, The necessity to operate in snow- oF ice-affected airports invariably means increased congestion, as aircraft may have to devi ing tasks to be completed. ‘Thus, delays to these flights are likely and the IOC’s mission becomes one of trying to minimize the fleets on a broader scale, or wait for snow-cle: Typhoons, hurrcenes, cyones "These events are also usually forecast several days ahead of the operating day as meteorology personnel (sometimes located in IOC) track their paths. Their severity dictates the action taken by airlines and, again, contingency plans are likely to have been put in place prior to the day of operation. With severe events such as these, aircraft safety is of highest priority, followed by customer comfort. So, any operations that are still being conducted in these locations are subject to decisions to contine or abandon the flights, This presents IOCs with a ‘wait and see’ approach, but similar to some other operational events, this may be the best option, Slearly, many uncertainties exist in sittzations sich as this, the time. Aats of God ‘Acts of God mainly include events such as sudden voleanic eruptions. If ‘unforeseen, these can require, at short or no notice, an aircraft to divert hundreds of kilometres off-course. Ifthe event is taking place and is known, the IOC wall schedule severely changed routings to avoid the ash cloud. At worst, am airline can, in effect, be totally grounded tntil the ash cloud passes. have Maintenance (also called Technical or Mechanical) Chapter 10 discussed, among other topics, aircraft serviceability and reliability. ‘With the complexity of aircraft systems and components, and the meticulous attention to maintaining fleets, one would imagine that disruptions due to technical or maintenance issues would be minimal. However, disruptions can ‘occur for various reasons, An airline's Network Scheduling Department lisises with Maintenance Planning to allocate time for maintenance to be conducted. ‘Aircraft that re-emerge into flying patterns after having been in the hanger for periods of time ranging from overnight, a few days, or sometimes months, are anticipated to return to flying on a particular day and in time for a particular fight departure. ‘Sometimes, though, the maintenance processes take additional time such that delays may still occur. Operation of an aircraft naturally causes wear and tear om its components, Besides regular servicing, aircraft undergo a plethora of330 Peter. Bruce maintenance work tasks such as engine changes, instrument changes, control surface changes, carpet repairs, windscreen replacements and so forth, any of which may result in inability to mect scheduled light commitments on srweight due to some unforeseen reason, or are struck by lightning while lying in storm activity. “These events require specific maintenance checks to be carried out, and in some cases, airerafl may be grounded awaiting such inspections. completion, Occasionally, aircraft land heavily, land o1 Crewing By the time a flight is ready to operate, the Crew Scheduling department in nearly all cases will have ensured that all the day's flights are crewed appropriately: Disruptions can occasionally be attributed to erew sickness or late sign-on at work. In an outport, where an airline typically may not have spare or reserve crews, crew sickness may have significant impact on a flight. Subject to the type of operation, the full complement of crew members is normally required to operate a flight, in which case a sick crew member may effectively ground the flight until a replacement is found. Chapter 9 described the rostering and pairing practices undertaken by airline Crew Scheduling departments. In most cases, and for many reasons, crews (both Pilot and Flight Auenda crews may need to transter from one aircraft to another during their duty time. complements) and aircraft do not all follow the same patterns. Thus, This can be quite complex, with several crew members translerring from any ff inbound flights. This means that should one or more of these inbound flights be running late, one or more outbound flights to be operated by another aircraft (tail number) may have to be delayed while the crew numb members transfer across, unless crew commitments can be changed on the day. ‘This is quite a common occurrence and a cause of many delays during IROPS, jicant disruptions, an airline may simply ran out of crews the have sufficient duty hours or ave no other operational restrictions, resulting in the cancellations of flights. ATC Delays may be incurred due to a variety of ATC requirements or procedur oon the grotind, often caused by congestion or reduced runway availability die to prevailing weather conditions, ‘Trallic congestion in the airspace around an airport, or through which a light is planned to operate, may also be the source of delayed pushback or flight clearances, and in some p: clearance to fly through a region may result in, perhaps, a sixty-minute hold at the departure port. In the USA, the ground stop program (see Chapter 23 for further detail) can also cause widespread disruptions across a network, as s ofthe world onward can the invoking of non-planned slot times, in which case departing and/or arriving aircraft must operate in line with the slots that become available at those airports,Operational disruptions 331 Ramp In peak times especially, the volume of traffic on the ramp may create its own congestion issues, The ramp frequently operates at a frantic pace with the combined movements of aircraft, ground service vehicles and people. Delays may be caused, for example, by having to push back and tow aircraft clear of this arca for engine start-up, or may be due to several aircraft movements, both inbound and ourbound, competing for limited apron space, Times of inclement weather and poor lighting bring into play additional safety concems. If flights become off-schedule, then the levels of planned resources and equipment may Decome stretched, having a further effect on handling of flights, ‘The efficiencies of sound aircraft bay planning are important for well-run ramp operations, but ina disrupted environment, off-scheduled arriving aircraft _ay be allocated bays some distance from other aircraft to which there may be ‘ranshipping (connecting) passengers, cargo and crews. An airline may ‘own’ its own gates and bays at an airport, which gives it a considerable advantage in planning. However, at many airports the airport authority owns the gates and bays and is the final arbiter for their allocation. The airport may also have different priorities to the airline's TOC, Late aircraft and lost block time Despite efforts to maintain schedule lights do nun late and with the compactness of most fight pattems, there is often litle that can be done to arrest the late operating pattems. Orher than cancelling selected flights to ‘free up’ some of the utilization (which upsets passengers more than being late), the delays will often just propagate during the day. In addition, congestion on the ground st the departure port, headwinds en route, or slowed ATC procedures on arrival can all lengthen the block (schedile) time. This in turn i likely to exacerbate the delay of subsequent flights unless some preventative ation can be taken. Late passengers Passengers for 4 flight may be late duc to any number of reasons. Passengers caught up in road traffic congestion or road accidents may be late by a matter of five minutes, or as much as several houts, and with technologies such as remote passenger checkein, it has become far more difficult for airlines to establish ‘exactly what proportion of passengers may have arrived at an airport in time for Doarding their lights. Passengers may be arriving as tranships from alate inbound flight. The decision as to whether to hold the outbound flight(s) may depend fon the numbers of passengers involved, the durations of the flights, choices of alternative uplift and so forth. Passengers are sometimes late from the lounges, not aware of public announcements, of lose their way to the appropriate gate. At times, passengers wander away from the gate-lounge area in which case they can be difficult to locate, Ifthey cannot be located in time for departure, the airline2 Peter J. Bice must remove their baggage from the aircraft, which guarantees a delay. Ticketing issues, check-in system problems, power supply problems, as well as congestion im the terminal, and slow lines through security and immigration are all additional factors that may contribute to flight delays. Flights ean also be specially booked or even chartered in connection with Crise-Fly package holidays, which makes some airline flight departures subject to ship schedules and subsequent transport from the dock. Numbers of passengers from cruise ships ean be quite high, and the late berthing ofa ship ean impact flights to several destinations, Cabin service and catering Similar to other planning activities before the day of operation, cabin service and/or catering sections or organizations roster teams for servicing aircraft cabins and providing the supplies and equipment required for a number of fights (including handling the airline's own fights and others if contracted). More ofien than not, these activities are now outsourced to specialist organizations. But vehicles can deliver to, or service, the wrong aircraft, equipment or staff shortfalls occur, and highly congested ramps, with off-scheduled operations, inyean thatthe level of service may simply fll behind time. Pulling ‘The refuellers also have a specific series of flights to service in their shift Refuelling delays may be related to equipment, gaining efficient access tothe aircraft the time taken to load high volumes of fuel, or handling off-scheduled aircraft. Should higher fel igures be required by several aircraft, duc to weather or other operating. circumstances, this may also be a cause of delays. On rare occasions, fuel may not be at the correct specification, therefore being deemed umusable, the supply may run low, or power failure may prevent pumping, Any ofthese could be significant testes for aires which may then need a strategy sich asa ftel policy to ph sel fom alternative sources (i¢., airports) until some resolution is reached, This is called ‘tankering’ fuel, and the consequences may inchide reduced revenue payload and higher cost as tankered fuel may not be from contracted sources Industri Disruptions caused by industrial unrest can have significant effects on the airline. For example, some countries experience industrial action by ATC organizations, which has the effect of closing airspace for defined periods, and occasionally Crewing or Engineering (Mechanic) unions conduct industrial action. However, as disruptive as it i, if sufficient notice is provided, and the action can be contained to known timeframes, an aitline is usually able to amend its flight schedules before the operating day. Industrial action on the day of operation is more disruptive, of course. Should refuellers or pushback tug drivers, for example, stop work, aircraft may be instantly stranded without fuelOperational disruptions ‘oF not have the capability to push back from the terminal, Although there may. bbe means for resolving these problems, delays are inevitable in this situation, and likely to snowball with increased airline movements through the airport. Airport availability ‘Similar in a sense to airspace availability airports sometimes become unavailable fon an operating day, perhaps due to a disabled aircraft or damage that has been caused to a runway. In such cases, flights may need to be delayed to avoid the restricted time, or even be rerouted ({.., with 4 new flight plan before the Aight has departed) to operate to an alternate airport. Other Disruptions are subject also to power o computer system outages, sometimes resulting in the need for manual processing systems, ‘These systems can affect kkey areas in the airport sich as check-in, baggage systems, and load control ‘Stall are trained in the event of outages stich as these, but reversion to mantal processes tstally creates backlogs dite to the lack of attomation and speed, ‘Causes of disruptions in-flight ‘Once a flight is airborne, several factors can determine its progress, whether these are during the cruise phase or on approach and landing phases. Weather ‘Weather problems such as thunderstorms or turbulence encountered en rote donot sully require operational decisions to be made other than crews electing. to divers their tracks around the event or make changes to altitude or speed. In most cases, little disruption to the flight or onward flights would be expected, although flying through storms can result im hail damage rarer cases lightning strikes can he experienced. More common though, are headwinds that may be in excess of the forecast strength, creating the need for the crew (and dispatcher/flight follower) to conduct in-light replanning to ceastre that fuel is suflicient to reach the destination, of ifnot, decide what other Actions may be necessary stich ae diverting to another airport ‘Marginal or deteriorating weather conditions at the destination, though, are ‘more likely to be disruptive, This typically consists of fog, snow, heavy ruin, high winds and turbulence, and thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the airfield or con the approaches to landing. Should the destination airport close due to weather conditions, calculations are made quickly to de to hold near the airport for a time, or whether and if so when, they might need to divert to a nominated alternate port. For long-hatal lights (especially international long hal) where fel margins may be far more enitical, decisions to divert may. nnced to be made earlier. the aircraft, oF in ermine if inbound aircraft are able4 Peter J. Bice Maintenance Aircraft can only depart an airport in a serviceable condition. In laymen’s terms, they are ‘fit to fly’. This means that everything related to the safety of the operation works as designed, Occasionally, though, components develop faults in service. Ifthe failure does not affect the safety or efficiency of the operation, the flight normally continues, If necessary, the crew may clect to divert the ‘ight and land at another airport, Inspection of the component on arrival by maintenance engineers will then determine what may need to be carried out to make the aircraft fully serviceable again, On determining the fault, the efficiency of recovery may then rest on the availability of appropriate licensed engineers (cg. airframe, engine, avionics) and if necessary, spare parts. Sometimes the aircraft may be grounded awaiting repair. Customermedical emergencies Circumstances such as medical events or customer-related emergencies occur occasionally. If these are minor events, or can be contained sufficiently on board, the flight normally continues to its destination. Otherwise, the crew. nay clect to divers the aircraft to the nearest suitable airport, for example one with a hospital ATC ATC delays related to airborne aircraft are normally due to traffic congestion in of around the destination airport. Procedures to manage this often include slowing down inbound aircraft, adjusting their tracks, or placing aircraft into holding patterns. In addition, marginal weather conditions may require specific instrument approaches, sometimes reducing the volume of traffic flow substantially. In these situations, TOCs are interested in the locations and estimated landing times of all their inbound aircraft. Thus, communication with ATC or some intermediary becomes crucial. Based upon anticipated landing and hence arrival times, IOCs can predict the consequences to outbound flights or take a series of actions ta lessen the effects of the disruption, Ainport unavailability Airport unavailability can influence operations in a number of ways. The sudden unavailability of a destination airport, or at least main runway, is likely to result in an inbound aircraft either holding or needing to divert to an alternate airport, as the fel carried is not normally sufficient to allow for such an event. Should an airport that is being used as an alternate airport during ETODS (or extended diversion time operations, EDTO) become unavailable (see Chapter 17 for farther details), the flight may not be able to continue as originally planned.Operational disruptions Crew duty/hours During IROPS, flight patterns can be severely disrupted and crews’ duties extended to operate as nauch of the schedule as possible. This may result in crew hours becoming exhausted and flights having to be cancelled. In the event of Jong-haul international flight diversions, crews may well run out of duty hours in the diversion port such that either continuation of the flight will be subject to the crew taking a rest break (e.g., fen hours), or a replacement crew being positioned to retrieve the flight and continue to the destination, Operational decision philosophy ‘The aim of operational control is to ensure that scheduled operations are carried out safely and as close to the published schedule as possible. In terms of IROPS, the aim is to monitor operations, identify and assess deviations from the plan and take corrective action(s) as necessary: Part of this process involves the gathering of information and using it to make decisions. Errors come about when information is unreliable or insufficient, or 4 decision is made too late to be effective, The problem is that the environment is highly complex, dynamic and uncertain, So information changes quickly and new information may only become apparent at an inopportune time, offen too late for effective use. In addition, decisions made in IOCs are based on a combination of reliable information and informed communications, high levels of expertise and experience, historic solutions, and company policies. All this is done in the context of legal frameworks, and all underpinned by the safety of operating, Criticism of operational decisions or lack thereof from the flying public or from ‘within the airline itself, may sometimes be well meaning but often unfounded. No one else in the airline has the oversight of the network, nor the resources #0 judge and action problem solutions, and while decisions affecting specific lights ‘may seem ‘unjust’ or ‘uncaring’, the IOC is charged with ensuring higher order objectives are met across the network. One of the key objectives is efficient and cffective communication between all partes in a disruption. This is a two-way process, as the IOC relies on timely and accurate information upon which to ‘make decisions, and its outward communications are as important as the actual recovery plans. The next section of this chapter describes the various strategies that can be implemented in the course of disruption management, Operational strategies and consequences Given the variety of problems that may occur, IOCs have at hand a number of strategies for preventing or atleast mitigating the effects of the disruptions. ‘The costs of IROPS in monetary terms, or perhaps passenger loyalty scores, are enormous, so selecting the optimum strategy to solve a problem is the key to eflicient IROPS management. In a complex IROPS situation, the resolution336. Peter. Bruce strategies could have quite substantial snowballing or downline (consequential) cflects that may impact the current day, or beyond into the next day. This is particularly the case with international operations. Delaying flights Nearly everyone who has travelled will be familiar with presenting themselves at an airport only to find that their flight has been delayed, Despite efforts to ain scheduled departure and, hopefilly, arival times, fights do run late. Delaying. flight or a number of flights is not desirable, but unless opportunities tenable other actions to be taken, sometimes there is little alternative. Besides effects on passengers, delays can also affect time-sensitive cargo, especially perishable goods, which include fresh produce, flowers and even items such as newspapers. If delays do occur, [OCs will endeavour to isolate them within 2 time period, or isolate a particular pattern of flights, or attempt to keep the delays within a geographic region so as not to spread problems around the network. However, this may not be possible if for example, there are transhipping passengers trom one flight (aircraft) to a different aircraft, In this case, the delay can spread to both the pattern of the aircraft originally running late as well as the aircraft awaiting the tranchips, Delaying flights can lead to farther problems, such as threatening to breach curfew times or requiring the negotiation of alternative slot times into or out of an airport. Delays can also allect some catering uplift that limits, In this case, the Catering supplier may have to replan catering uplift or even cancel the planned uplift, If fights need to be delayed awaiting inbound crews from another flight, this may also be a source of spreading delays. In addition, the later operation of Sights has an impact on airports and resources simply because they are late, stich that the ground resources which had been so carefully preplanned and optimized, are suddenly handling off-scheduled movements. Should flight bookings be compatible, IOCs may be able to remove (i¢., cancel) some of the ‘ights from the network, thus freeing up space in aircraft patterns and enabling them to use the time to get back on schedule, In peak times of the day or week, cor when weather or other influences causse more widespread network delays, many patterns run late and recovery becomes far more dificult The extent to which [OCs disseminate information through various systems to the travelling public or even stall in relation to anticipated delays isa great point of conjecture. Much of this is due to uncertainty or changing circumstances which are characteristic of the operation. For example, if a particular patter were running late (e.g, a remote pattern running two hours behind schedule) and there was virtually no chance of resurrecting the operation by taking any other action, then a delayed schedule may be broadcast publicly stich that passengers at each subsequent port could be advised well in advance of an impending delayed departure time. However, when ather options (such as swapping aircraft pattems, or cancelling some flights) present themselves, there 3c limited due to its freshness and shelf-lifeOperational disruptions 337 is no certainty at all that future flights will be delayed. Allit needs, sometimes, is another disruption to occur, for which the solution resolves both that disruption and the originally delayed pattern, The key in the IOC is to recognize actual and potential problems and identify the options that may be used to mitigate thems. The set of skills needed for this often reflects the levels of experience and expertise of personnel in the IOC. Swapping aircraft (tail numbers) within type This is the simplest aircraft swap and involves swapping two similar aircraft at some point during their flying patterns. Each aircraft would then fly the remainder of the pattern ofthe other aircraft (unless further swapping brought about more change). The simplicity is due to the similarities in. ground handling, use of the same Pilots,* Flight Attendants, catering equipment, fel loads, and (very similar) weights and performance. Delays may or may not be incurred as a result of the swap, or the swap may be enacted to stop further delays to a pattern. Operational considerations could include changes to parking. positions and gate lounges, changes of aircraft for erews and passengers, and possibly disrupted maintenance work due on one of the aircraft that no longer matches with the planned maintenance base. Caution is also exercised even when swapping derivatives of one aitcratt type (e.g, B777-300 for a B777~ 200). It may be that erew who are not endorsed to fy the larger 300 aircraft cannot operate it following an aircraft change, which may then deem the aircraft grounded (awaiting another crew). Even aircraft of identical type may not have an identical interior configuration, for instance in seating. This may result in reservations and check-in personnel having to reallocate passengers with a higher risk of passenger dissatisfaction, for instance ifloved ones cannot be allocated adjacent seats Swapping aircraft ~ type changes ‘This change is more complex, as different types of aircraft generally require different Technical Crews (Pilots) and Flight Attendants who are endorsed on type. Ifup-gauging (to a larger) type, extra Flight Attendants will be required. In addition, baggage and cargo containers and loading/unloading procedures may differ, as well as catering requirements and on-board equipment, particularly if narrow-body and wide-body aircraft changes are envisaged. Down-gauging could result in passenger offloads on some of the flights operated either on the ‘current day, o,f the patterns affected included overnight displacement, the next day, If overnight bases are changed, then the same maintenance considerations apply, as well as changes to accommodation requirements for the crews, The implications of these factors are that should the changes be required in a short timeframe, there are likely to be delayed flights incurred to incoxporate the additional handling involved,13 Peter J. Bice Diverting flights Diverting alight can be quite messy and very costly In the case of planning a flight diversion prior to departure (perhaps better termed rerouting rather than diverting a flight), airport staff and other key personnel atthe unscheduled airport can be advised well ahead of the anticipated artival time. Therefore, refuellers, cabin service including catering, and other ground handling services will be prepared for the additional aircraft movements. In contrast, fights that divert due to unforeseen circumstances (such as weather or perhaps a medical emergency on board) are unplanned and therefore unresourced, Ifa major airport were to close aguite suddenly due to storm activity, for example, and several aircraft divert to common nominated alternate airport, the resulting congestion at the alternate port will cause significant parking, handling, and fuelling problems as well as Gisruption to passengers and crews. It may even result in the need for overnight accommodation should the flights involved be at night-time, Decisions to divert a flight may be made by s Dispatcher in collaboration with the Aircraft Captain ‘or Commander. In the absence of the Dispatch role, the Captain may make their own decision to divert, or if time permits and communication is possible with the IOC, questions may be asked as to which diversion port would be preferred, This provides an opportunity for JOC inpat in spreading diversions more evenly and taking advantage of any operational benefit, such as cancelling or combining other flights, A further consideration relates to any aircraft that becomes ‘outeof-position’, where an aircraft may have diverted to a particular port but then becomes ‘owed’ to another port. Ithere are multiple diversions, there may well be numerous aircraft (and passengers and crews) caught out-of= position, Recovering this situation is discussed below. Of course, this situation may also result in foregone scheduled maintenance work with downline ramifications. Any diversion is likely to result in the loss of perishable cargo, ‘which may be unable to be transhipped to other carriers before its due time. Cancelling lights As implied above, cancelling fights generally disrupts passengers the most as their original plans for flying between origin and destination are changed Airlines would obviously prefer to operate flights as planned for this very reason, but at times, the option to cancel a number of flights may be the preferred choice in order to prevent wider network disruption, Cancelling flights also carries a number of consequential effects. Crews who may have been rostered for the cancelled flight and then other commitments may now be out of position, requiring some rerostering of crews, or having to change (even cancel) other fights as well. Cancelling flights in one direction (¢.g., MAN-CD) usually implies that some other action is needed to restore the balance of sitcraft. Is this case, solutions could include cancelling the opposite direction CDG-MAN, or positioning (ferrying) another aircraft either from MAN or from somewhere in the airline's network into CDG to operate the next flight. This may createOperational disruptions another gap that may need to be filled where that aircraft was supposed to foperate. ‘The situation becomes far more challenging with cancellations of long-haul flights, with large numbers of passengers usally being booked, and solutions to problems being more dificult. Adding flights ‘As a means for continuing operations during or after IROPS eve sometimes need to reposition aircraft. These flights are often non-revenue (oF 3, airlines ferry) lights, as they may not carry Flight Attendants, in which case they cannot Ferrying aircraft is, of course, very costly, but in the overall picture of a significant IROPS event, where multiple cancellations may have taken place to keep the network flying, positioning aircraft can be a useful and necessary strategy to ensure aircraft can recover future flying patterns, perhaps later in the day, of forthe next day I cans of utilizing the crew: ‘who position the aircraft to continue flying. Selecting the appropriate time to carry passenges position an aircraft is also a strategic decision, If an aircraft is required to ferry to a port to operate a scheduled flight out of that port, the ferry flight is usually conducted as late as possible (allowing for a standard turnaround time prior to operating the scheduled flight) just in case further disruptions negate the need for ferrying at all. However, this must be weighed against any potential ‘operating problems such as weather (especially fog) which may farther disrupt the ferry itself Thus, a ferry flight is usually conducted as a last resort. Conclusion ‘This chapter has built on Chapter 8, which introduced readers to the IOC, and also used the foundation chapters in Part II describing ‘normal current day. copes achieved. The next chapter considers domestic and international IROPS, especially in terms of seasonal problems that occur, particularly in the USA. tions’ ag a basis for exploring what happens when ‘normal’ isn’t being 1 The term IOC will be used as a reference to the Integrated Operations Control ‘Network Operations Centre), (Airline Operations Control Centre) SOC (Systems Operations Centre) 2 Bruce, PJ (2011) Understanding Deiion-making Prceserin ltlne Operations Conte Achat, Aldershot, 3. Lessin the case of some airlines such 38 LOCs, 4° The term ‘customer’ ie preferred in many airlines but ‘pasenger’ is still commonly sed 5 Note: Pilots can be multi-endorsed to fly families’ of aircraft such as 1737-700, 800, -900 or A320/319/321 aircraft but normally endorsed to fly AS20/A330 or wien, 6 Seenote 5