2019 Transaction Guide Revised Version Final

2019 Specialty Coffee Transaction Guide (Revised)
A collaboration between researchers at Transparent Trade Coffee (Emory University)

and a growing roster of specialty coffee producers, exporters, importers, roasters, and
supporters. *
Version 2.2 (Revised)

Released September 2020
For more information, visit www.transactionguide.coffee
Direct questions or comments to [email protected]
*
The numbers in this Transaction Guide represent our best efforts to organize and analyze contract data provided by data
donors in compliance with applicable laws. As the project develops over the next several years, we will make every effort to
expand the roster of data donors. We will also develop and implement additional plans to validate data, to identify and
remove duplicate observations (i.e., same-contract data supplied by different data donors), and to improve the
presentation of the patterns revealed in the data.
2
Introduction
As volatile commodity prices continue to hover at historically low levels, industry leaders at various
points along the supply chain are talking about the need to differentiate the people who grow
specialty coffees from price references that come from commodity markets.
The Specialty Coffee Transaction Guides rely on a group of progressive data donors – specialty coffee
farmers, support organizations, exporters, importers, and roasters – who provide detailed contract
data covering specialty coffee transactions from recent harvests on a confidential basis.1 Researchers
at Emory University use this anonymized and appropriately aggregated information to create tables
that describe the distributions of recent prices for green (unroasted) specialty coffees.2
The tables in the revised 2019 Transaction Guide rely on data from 70 data donors headquartered in
twenty countries (see the Appendix). They summarize information from contracts signed in the
October 2016 to September 2019 period.3 This three-year window is divided into three periods:
2016/2017, 2017/2018, and 2018/2019.
The revised 2019 Transaction Guide summarizes roughly 41,000 contracts that cover more than 725
million pounds of green specialty coffee valued at more than $1.5 billion (see Table 1).4
Table 1. Current Sample (Revised)

Total Pounds Total Value*
Period Contracts
(millions) (millions)
2018/2019 19,428 354.71 USD 744.60
2017/2018 11,682 202.71 USD 465.40
2016/2017 9,878 171.85 USD 377.39
3 Years 40,988 729.27 USD 1,587.39
*
Sum of contracted volumes multiplied by FOB prices
Because these tables describe actual prices paid for green specialty coffees, they provide relevant
information for industry participants to consider as part of current and future negotiations.
1
Data donors agree to “provide information on all of our green coffee transactions for the period covered by the
Transaction Guide”; that “all of the information that we provide will be accurate to the best of our knowledge”; and would
“support efforts to verify a small number of contracts by seeking confirmation from the affected contract counterparties.”
2
The Specialty Coffee Transaction Guides are designed to comply with applicable antitrust and competition laws by
providing appropriately anonymized, aged and aggregated information that allows industry participants to better
understand the marketplace in which they participate so they can independently develop strategies to achieve value
propositions that meet consumer demand.
3
We assign contracts to specific periods based on the “date the contract was finalized/signed.”
4
We set aside contracts that do not report prices or lot sizes, and those that report quality scores lower than 80. We also
set aside 238 contracts that are obvious duplicates by identifying those that report the same grower, price and lot size
information on the same or similar dates, and that indicate the involvement of another organization that is also a current
data donor. (As the number and volume of data donors grow in the future, we will explore additional ways to ensure
identification and removal of duplicate contracts.)
3
FOB Prices
To provide context for sellers and buyers of specialty coffees, our Transaction Guides describe recent
FOB price distributions, all in USD per green pound. Because we do not want observations to be
influenced by outliers, we report median prices when describing the middle of each market category.5
Lower prices and higher prices refer to the 25th and 75th percentile of prices observed in each category.
Thinking about FOB prices. Free on board (FOB) prices are ‘paid for coffees that are delivered and
placed onto the ship at the port in the country of embarkation. They typically cover any overland
transportation costs from mills or warehouses to the port of origin, but not any overseas shipping,
insurance, or any transportation, customs, and overland freight costs incurred on arrival to the port of
destination’ (International Chamber of Commerce). These prices, which are consistently reported in
most export contracts, speak to pre-export valuations and indicate the amounts of money that stay in
the countries where coffees are produced. However, FOB prices only tell part of the economic story
because they do not indicate how much of the contracted revenues make it back to coffee farms.
Moreover, a number of transactions between farm gates and ports do not stipulate prices in USD per
green pound. These shortcomings must be kept in mind when interpreting the numbers presented in the
following tables.
Table 2. Three Years of FOB Prices (Revised)

Lower Price Middle Price Higher Price
Period* Contracts th
(25 Percentile) (Median) (75th Percentile)
2018/2019 19,428 USD 1.91 USD 2.80 USD 3.63
2017/2018 11,682 USD 2.01 USD 2.81 USD 3.71
2016/2017 9,878 USD 2.09 USD 2.80 USD 3.59
3 Years 40,988 USD 2.00 USD 2.80 USD 3.62
*
Each period runs from October 1st to September 30th
Key Observations:
− The median price for green specialty coffees was a consistent $2.80 per pound across these three
harvest years.
− While median prices remained stable, lower (i.e., 25th percentile) prices declined $0.18, from $2.09
in 2016/2017 to $1.91 in 2018/2019.
− In each period, the range of prices paid for green specialty coffees was quite large. In 2018/2019,
fifty percent of the prices in the sample covered a range of $1.72 (from $1.91 to $3.63).
FOB Prices by Quality Level
One variable that influences prices for specialty coffees is quality. Table 3 organizes FOB prices into
seven quality bands.
5
The median price is the middle – or 50th percentile – observation in the sample.
4
Table 3. FOB Prices in Different Quality Bands (Revised)

Pounds Value Lower Median Higher
Period Contracts
(millions) (millions) Price (25th) Price Price (75th)
From 80 to 81.9
2018/2019 1,420 70.50 USD 107.54 USD 1.18 USD 1.55 USD 1.90
2017/2018 643 33.26 USD 48.49 USD 1.29 USD 1.43 USD 1.60
2016/2017 536 21.63 USD 35.56 USD 1.49 USD 1.60 USD 1.77
3 Years 2,599 125.38 USD 191.59 USD 1.28 USD 1.55 USD 1.90
From 82 to 83.9
2018/2019 3,339 137.19 USD 242.46 USD 1.33 USD 1.75 USD 2.20
2017/2018 1,782 68.61 USD 131.05 USD 1.52 USD 1.82 USD 2.12
2016/2017 1,676 60.12 USD 112.04 USD 1.65 USD 1.91 USD 2.30
From 84 to 84.9
2018/2019 2,434 50.88 USD 124.18 USD 1.94 USD 2.25 USD 2.74
2017/2018 1,936 37.25 USD 96.78 USD 1.99 USD 2.30 USD 2.68
2016/2017 1,692 36.47 USD 80.25 USD 2.04 USD 2.30 USD 2.75
From 85 to 85.9
2018/2019 1,915 25.78 USD 70.08 USD 2.40 USD 2.76 USD 3.29
2017/2018 1,383 23.54 USD 64.34 USD 2.41 USD 2.75 USD 3.40
2016/2017 1,149 18.22 USD 48.53 USD 2.47 USD 2.85 USD 3.40
From 86 to 87.9
2018/2019 4,303 23.32 USD 78.04 USD 2.97 USD 3.40 USD 4.00
2017/2018 3,472 20.22 USD 68.52 USD 3.08 USD 3.52 USD 4.50
2016/2017 2,895 19.71 USD 61.61 USD 3.10 USD 3.50 USD 4.08
88 Plus
2018/2019 1,527 4.78 USD 19.28 USD 3.56 USD 4.90 USD 7.20
2017/2018 759 2.91 USD 11.50 USD 3.50 USD 4.80 USD 8.20
2016/2017 434 2.07 USD 7.48 USD 3.50 USD 4.32 USD 5.33
No Quality Score
2018/2019 4,490 42.27 USD 103.01 USD 2.49 USD 3.25 USD 4.00
2017/2018 1,707 16.93 USD 44.72 USD 2.47 USD 3.04 USD 4.00
2016/2017 1,496 13.65 USD 31.93 USD 2.54 USD 3.00 USD 4.00
Thinking about Quality Scores. The quality information in the 2019 Transaction Guide relies on SCA
standards reported in a range of 80 to 100. Despite ongoing efforts to develop standardized cupping
scores, coffee quality is subjective and different sellers and buyers will arrive at different scores. The
scores and ranges in these tables provide a general indication of prices paid for coffees at different
quality levels. However, the data donors exhibit different biases when assessing coffee quality.
Moreover, some donors report specific quality scores, others report quality ranges, while others do not
provide any quality information. When quality scores are reported in ranges, we assign the lowest value
5
in the range. To account for coffees purchased without reference to a quality score, we include a
separate “No Quality Score” category.6
Key Observations:
− Higher-quality coffees tend to receive higher prices. In 2018/2019, the median price for coffees in
the 86 to 87.9 range ($3.40) was almost double the median price for 82 to 83.9 coffees ($1.75).
− For lower-quality coffees, the lower prices declined over the three years. The 25th percentile price
for 82 to 83.9 coffees fell $0.32, from $1.65 in 2016/2017 to $1.33 in 2018/2019. Coffees with
scores between 80 and 81.9 experienced a similar decline, as their 25th percentile price fell $0.31,
from $1.49 to $1.18.
− The range of prices for lower-quality coffees was lower than that observed for higher-quality
coffees. In 2018/2019, fifty percent of the 82 to 83.9 coffee prices covered a range of $0.87, from
$1.33 to $2.20, while fifty percent of the 86 to 87.9 coffee prices covered a range of $1.03, from
$2.97 to $4.00.
FOB Prices by Lot Size
Another variable that influences prices for specialty coffees is lot size. Table 4 divides the sample into
five quantity bands.
Thinking about lot sizes. Most green specialty coffees are delivered in sacks (or bags) that weigh
between 100 and 154 pounds each. Large lots are purchased and exported in containers that hold
roughly 40,000 pounds. At the other extreme, the smallest ‘microlots’ come from specific farms, or
parts of farms, often in lot sizes smaller than 1,000 pounds.7
Key Observations:
− Median prices were higher for coffees purchased in smaller quantities. In 2018/2019, the median
price per pound for lots of less than 1,000 pounds ($4.00) was more than double that paid for lots
of 40,000+ pounds ($1.74).
− Across the board, lower-end prices fell over the three years. The 25th percentile price for lots of
40,000+ pounds fell $0.29, from $1.60 in 2016/2017 to $1.31 in 2018/2019. These declines were
not as pronounced for coffees sold in smaller lot sizes.
− The range of prices was higher in smaller-sized contracts. In 2018/2019, fifty percent of the prices
paid in lots of 40,000+ pounds covered a range of $0.82, from $1.31 to $2.13. However, fifty
percent of the prices paid in lots of less than 1,000 pounds covered a range of $2.30, from $3.25 to
$5.55.
6
The “No Quality Score” band also includes contracts where quality was considered during price negotiations, but where
data donors’ current records do not link contract data with the relevant quality information.
7
When thinking about FOB prices paid for green coffees, versus retail prices paid for roasted coffees, remember that there
is a loss (or shrinkage) of roughly 15% of bean weight when coffees are roasted. Consider a roaster who paid $5.00 for a
pound of green coffee. After that coffee is roasted, it weighs roughly 0.85 pounds. This means that green coffee cost is
actually $5.88 per roasted pound.
6
Table 4. FOB Prices in Different Lot Size Bands (Revised)

Pounds Value Lower Median Higher
Period Contracts th
(millions) (millions) Price (25 ) Price Price (75th)
More than 40,000 Pounds
2018/2019 4,490 240.54 USD 458.52 USD 1.31 USD 1.74 USD 2.13
2017/2018 2,496 145.63 USD 306.42 USD 1.46 USD 1.78 USD 2.20
2016/2017 2,571 120.14 USD 233.91 USD 1.60 USD 1.90 USD 2.20
From 10,001 to 40,000 Pounds
2018/2019 3,308 86.53 USD 194.53 USD 1.77 USD 2.23 USD 2.80
2017/2018 1,667 38.70 USD 95.18 USD 1.86 USD 2.30 USD 2.96
2016/2017 1,529 36.22 USD 90.70 USD 2.05 USD 2.42 USD 3.02
2018/2019 3,397 18.49 USD 54.57 USD 2.35 USD 2.90 USD 3.40
2017/2018 2,317 12.83 USD 39.44 USD 2.40 USD 2.95 USD 3.45
2016/2017 2,046 11.05 USD 35.09 USD 2.50 USD 2.96 USD 3.50
2018/2019 3,939 7.03 USD 25.61 USD 2.75 USD 3.40 USD 4.00
2017/2018 2,456 4.36 USD 17.23 USD 2.82 USD 3.46 USD 4.33
2016/2017 1,939 3.53 USD 13.45 USD 2.84 USD 3.39 USD 4.01
Less than 1,000 Pounds
2018/2019 4,294 2.13 USD 11.38 USD 3.25 USD 4.00 USD 5.55
2017/2018 2,296 1.18 USD 7.13 USD 3.38 USD 4.12 USD 6.22
2016/2017 1,793 0.91 USD 4.25 USD 3.22 USD 3.86 USD 5.00
* Quantity bands are set to include roughly the same number of contracts in each group.
FOB Prices by Quality Level and Lot Size
The main feature of our Transaction Guides is a single table that captures FOB prices for specialty
coffees with different quality scores and purchased at different lot sizes (see Table 5).
Key Observations:
− There are fewer large purchases of coffees with the highest quality scores, and fewer small
purchases of coffees with the lowest quality scores.
− In 2018/2019, the median prices for the more ‘ordinary’ buckets – 40,000+ pounds of coffee
scoring in the 80 to 83.9 range ($1.54 and $1.59) and 10,001 to 40,000 pounds scoring in the 80 to
81.9 range ($1.60) – roughly match the prevailing Fair Trade minimum price for conventional
coffees; i.e., $1.40 plus a $0.20 social premium.
− In 2018/2019, the median prices in the two most-populated buckets were very different. The
median price for the largest lots of coffees that cup between 82 and 83.9 was $1.59, while the
median price for the smallest lots of coffees that cup between 86 and 87.9 – was $3.90.
7
− Across all three harvest years, there were consistent pricing slopes within each quantity and quality
band. For example, median FOB prices for lot sizes of 10,001 to 40,000 pounds rose from $1.58 to
$3.20 as quality scores rose from 80-81.9 points to 88+ points (see the second group in Figure 1).
Figure 1. Quality Score Pricing Slopes, 3 Years
− Median FOB prices for coffees with quality scores between 85 and 85.9 points increased from
$2.45 to $3.40 as lot sizes declined from 40,000+ pounds to less than 1,000 pounds (see the fourth
group in Figure 2).
Figure 2. Lot Size Pricing Slopes, 3 Years

8
Table 5. FOB Prices for Specialty Coffees, 2018/2019 (Revised)

Pounds Value Lower Median Higher Median,
Contracts th
(millions) (millions) Price (25 ) Price Price (75th) 3 years
80 to 81.9 1,178 65.57 USD 98.51 USD 1.15 USD 1.54 USD 1.90 USD 1.54
84 to 84.9 639 28.00 USD 71.26 USD 1.85 USD 2.12 USD 2.30 USD 2.10
88 plus - - - - - - -
No scores 368 20.74 USD 44.83 USD 1.17 USD 1.59 USD 2.25 USD 1.59
88 plus 128 2.44 USD 7.61 USD 2.86 USD 3.20 USD 3.30 USD 3.20
No scores 601 13.13 USD 31.09 USD 1.80 USD 2.39 USD 3.00 USD 2.50
80 to 81.9 - - - - - - -
No scores 1,064 5.74 USD 16.78 USD 2.40 USD 3.00 USD 3.50 USD 2.95
80 to 81.9 - - - - - - -
80 to 81.9 - - - - - - -
*
Price information redacted in buckets with fewer than 100 observations
Year-over-Year FOB Price Changes
In a period during which commodity prices trended downward (see Figure 3), median prices in the
9
revised 2019 Transaction Guide displayed more stability.
Figure 3. New York ‘C’ Price from October 1st 2016 to September 30th 2019
Table 6 shows median prices for every quality-quantity bucket in each of the three harvest years. In 21
cases, there are enough contracts in the current sample to report changes in these median prices over
time. The largest two-year median price decrease was -$0.34, for 84 – 84.9 coffees sold in lot sizes
between 3,001 and 10,000 pounds. The largest median price increase was +$1.00, for 88+ coffees sold
in lot sizes of less than 1,000 pounds.
Key Observations:
− The average of the 2016/2017 to 2018/2019 median price changes in Table 4 is -$0.08, which is
$0.31 less than the corresponding commodity price decline of $0.39 (see Figure 3).
− Roughly $0.10 of this overall decline took place between 2017/2018 and 2018/2019. The average
of the median price changes between 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 was +$0.03.
− Across the 21 cases where we observe median price changes between 2016/2017 and 2018/2019,
they fell in 17 cases, and rose in four cases.
10
Table 6. Median FOB Prices over 3 Years (Revised)

2016/2017 to
2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019
2018/2019
Median Median Median
Change
80 to 81.9 USD 1.60 USD 1.41 USD 1.54 -USD 0.06
82 to 83.9 USD 1.78 USD 1.65 USD 1.59 -USD 0.19
84 to 84.9 USD 2.04 USD 2.07 USD 2.12 USD 0.08
85 to 85.9 USD 2.40 USD 2.44 USD 2.46 USD 0.06
86 to 87.9 USD 2.90 USD 2.88 USD 2.70 -USD 0.20
88 plus - - - -
80 to 81.9 - - USD 1.60 -
82 to 83.9 USD 2.03 USD 1.85 USD 1.90 -USD 0.13
84 to 84.9 USD 2.30 USD 2.15 USD 2.20 -USD 0.10
85 to 85.9 USD 2.58 USD 2.50 USD 2.50 -USD 0.08
86 to 87.9 USD 3.19 USD 3.00 USD 3.00 -USD 0.19
88 plus - - USD 3.20 -
80 to 81.9 - - - -
82 to 83.9 USD 2.50 USD 2.20 USD 2.19 -USD 0.31
84 to 84.9 USD 2.63 USD 2.30 USD 2.29 -USD 0.34
85 to 85.9 USD 3.01 USD 2.81 USD 2.77 -USD 0.24
86 to 87.9 USD 3.35 USD 3.25 USD 3.15 -USD 0.20
88 plus - USD 3.78 USD 3.44 -
80 to 81.9 - - - -
82 to 83.9 - - USD 2.40 -
84 to 84.9 USD 2.74 USD 2.61 USD 2.69 -USD 0.05
85 to 85.9 USD 3.30 USD 3.30 USD 3.00 -USD 0.30
86 to 87.9 USD 3.65 USD 3.70 USD 3.46 -USD 0.19
88 plus USD 4.71 USD 4.87 USD 4.53 -USD 0.18
80 to 81.9 - - - -
82 to 83.9 - - USD 2.50 -
84 to 84.9 USD 2.78 USD 2.50 USD 2.86 USD 0.08
85 to 85.9 USD 3.30 USD 3.50 USD 3.29 -USD 0.01
86 to 87.9 USD 3.96 USD 4.30 USD 3.90 -USD 0.06
88 plus USD 5.00 USD 7.00 USD 6.00 USD 1.00
*
FOB Prices by Region and Country
This section describes prices for specialty coffees grown in different regions and countries. Figure 4
combines data from the three harvest years and isolates four growing regions. It shows that a large
majority of the contracts in the current sample cover coffees grown in South America (N=17,886) and
Central America & Mexico (N=15,533). A smaller but still substantial number of contracts cover African
11
coffees (N=5,950). The median FOB price was highest for African coffees ($3.23) and lowest for coffees
grown in South America ($2.60).8 However, there were also differences across regions in terms of
median quality scores and lot sizes.
To see how the distributions of green specialty coffee prices differ across regions, Table 7 replicates
key elements of Table 5, focusing on the three regions that dominate the current sample.9
Figure 4. Current Sample (Revised) across Regions, 3 Years
Median Price Median Quality Median Lot Size

South America USD 2.60 85.0 points 4,630 pounds
Central America & Mexico USD 2.75 84.0 points 4,564 pounds
Africa USD 3.23 86.4 points 5,291 pounds
Asia USD 2.72 84.0 points 19,842 pounds
Key Observations:
− In the current sample, there are very few African coffees in the lower-quality buckets.
− In the most populated buckets within each quantity band, the median prices for coffees grown in
Central America & Mexico were (with one exception) higher than the corresponding medians
observed in South America.
8
Preliminary analysis indicates that FOB price distributions are different for coffees from Brazil, which represent a large
part of the South American sample. If we set the Brazilian coffees aside, the median FOB price for South America (in 14,322
contracts) increases to $2.82.
9
Presenting price information for just a few major growing regions glosses over important differences around the world of
specialty coffee. As such, we will keep working to expand the pool of data donors. As the sample of contracts continues to
grow, we will be able to produce similar tables for other regions, as well as country-specific tables.
12
Table 7. Median FOB Prices by Region, 3 Years (Revised)

All Regions South America Central America & Africa
Mexico
N Median N Median N Median N Median
80 to 81.9 2,133 $1.54 1,100 $1.55 869 $1.45 103 $1.99
82 to 83.9 4,080 $1.65 2,103 $1.60 1,788 $1.80 - -
84 to 84.9 1,810 $2.10 753 $2.02 887 $2.10 - -
85 to 85.9 812 $2.45 306 $2.28 288 $2.45 161 $2.65
86 to 87.9 527 $2.80 221 $2.73 103 $2.48 168 $3.05
88 plus - - - - - - - -
No scores 614 $1.59 299 $1.46 - - 141 $1.65
80 to 81.9 323 $1.58 141 $1.55 123 $1.46 - -
82 to 83.9 1,527 $1.90 522 $1.82 762 $1.90 - -
84 to 84.9 1,443 $2.20 600 $2.11 540 $2.16 165 $2.45
85 to 85.9 940 $2.52 316 $2.50 394 $2.50 190 $2.90
86 to 87.9 1,032 $3.05 426 $2.71 196 $3.05 378 $3.23
88 plus 242 $3.20 - - - - 198 $3.23
No scores 997 $2.50 369 $2.07 275 $2.49 307 $3.20
80 to 81.9 - - - - - - - -
82 to 83.9 567 $2.31 196 $2.01 302 $2.50 - -
84 to 84.9 1,230 $2.41 575 $2.25 463 $2.43 106 $2.80
85 to 85.9 1,170 $2.85 508 $2.75 468 $2.90 154 $3.05
86 to 87.9 2,382 $3.25 972 $3.22 712 $3.25 663 $3.20
88 plus 369 $3.60 - - - - 224 $3.56
No scores 1,969 $2.95 717 $2.46 665 $3.15 527 $3.15
80 to 81.9 - - - - - - - -
82 to 83.9 335 $2.59 115 $2.15 157 $3.09 - -
84 to 84.9 1,101 $2.67 361 $2.50 543 $2.61 - -
85 to 85.9 904 $3.14 368 $3.00 425 $3.25 - -
86 to 87.9 3,191 $3.59 1,463 $3.50 1,180 $3.60 524 $4.02
88 plus 741 $4.60 199 $4.00 206 $4.80 334 $4.78
No scores 2,023 $3.40 805 $3.00 736 $3.58 414 $4.04
80 to 81.9 - - - - - - - -
82 to 83.9 288 $2.75 123 $1.97 142 $3.02 - -
84 to 84.9 478 $2.75 135 $2.58 281 $2.75 - -
85 to 85.9 621 $3.40 286 $3.25 264 $3.50 - -
86 to 87.9 3,538 $4.00 2,243 $3.95 1,065 $4.00 210 $3.91
88 plus 1,337 $5.95 734 $5.45 449 $7.50 147 $5.39
No scores 2,090 $4.00 750 $4.00 1,034 $4.02 217 $4.08
*
There was also considerable variability in prices, quality, and lot sizes across the countries in each
growing region (see Table 8). Coffees grown in Kenya had the highest median price ($4.49). These
13
coffees also had a high median quality score and a low median lot size. At the other end of the pricing
spectrum was Brazil, with a median price of $2.00. These coffees had a relatively low median quality
score and a relatively high median lot size.
Table 8. Median FOB Prices, Quality Scores and Lot Sizes across Countries, 3 Years (Revised)
Total Pounds Median Median Median
N
(millions) FOB Price* Quality Score* Lot Size*
Colombia 9,587 130.33 USD 2.95 86.0 3,086 pounds
Guatemala 4,450 98.08 USD 2.71 84.7 6,606 pounds
Peru 2,906 70.98 USD 2.16 84.0 27,143 pounds
Brazil 2,823 63.23 USD 2.00 84.0 11,905 pounds
Costa Rica 2,320 50.92 USD 2.70 84.0 7,606 pounds
Honduras 2,199 29.03 USD 3.04 84.5 2,890 pounds
Ethiopia 2,187 44.89 USD 3.20 86.3 13,228 pounds
Nicaragua 2,098 41.61 USD 2.25 84.0 8,367 pounds
El Salvador 1,845 11.47 USD 3.30 85.3 1,521 pounds
Kenya 1,616 6.17 USD 4.49 87.3 1,984 pounds
Indonesia 983 23.14 USD 2.72 84.0 27,250 pounds
Mexico 892 20.46 USD 2.48 84.0 22,818 pounds
Rwanda 692 9.53 USD 2.80 86.0 6,614 pounds
Burundi 650 3.97 USD 3.00 86.8 3,704 pounds
Ecuador 367 0.97 USD 4.45 86.5 1,433 pounds
Tanzania 248 2.88 USD 2.25 85.0 5,291 pounds
Uganda 224 4.00 USD 2.55 84.0 7,275 pounds
Bolivia 179 1.87 USD 4.30 86.0 3,175 pounds
Myanmar 128 0.64 USD 3.70 85.0 2,643 pounds
DR Congo 116 2.27 USD 3.11 86.4 14,551 pounds
*
These values do not necessarily apply to all coffees produced in each country; only to
those observed in the current sample.
Given the range of quality scores and lot sizes, we present a set of estimates of country price
differences that account for these differences. Using the three-year sample, we estimate a regression
model with FOB price as the dependent variable and a series of indicator variables – representing each
of the quality-quantity buckets from Table 5 – as explanatory variables. We also account for systematic
price differences across the three harvest years.10 The predicted values from this regression model
indicate the part of an FOB price that is explained by these variables. The residual values represent the
leftover (or unexplained) part, which is closer to the true effect of country-of-origin. Figure 5 reports
the median values of these residuals for each country.
Key Observations:
− According to Table 8, the highest median price premium comes from Kenya, while the lowest
comes from Brazil. After controlling for quality, lot size and harvest years, the Kenyan price
premium is +$0.76, while the Brazilian price discount is -$0.35.
10
To minimize the influence of outlier observations, we first set aside contracts with the lowest and highest 5% of reported
FOB prices.
14
Figure 5. Adjusted FOB Price Differences across Countries, 3 Years* (Revised)
* Observations for countries represented by light blue are more speculative given the smaller sample sizes.
Concluding Comments
The Specialty Coffee Transaction Guides offer participants in the specialty coffee market a different
and potentially more relevant information source than commodity indices to utilize as part of their
independent pricing strategies. To achieve this goal, we use actual contract data from a range of data
donors to summarize recent FOB prices paid for green specialty coffees produced at different qualities,
sold in different lot sizes, and exported from different growing areas.
The tables and figures in the revised 2019 Transaction Guide provide important contextual information
for future price negotiations. Buyers and sellers can now consider price references that are more
relevant to specialty coffee. For example, consider the expanded marketplace information that is now
available to parties independently negotiating two hypothetical specialty coffee transactions:
Scenario: Price reference from the 2019 Transaction Guide:

Selling/buying a container of coffee grown in $1.59 (median from Table 5) plus adjusted El Salvador
El Salvador that cups at 83. premium of $0.07 (from Figure 5); $1.66.
Selling/buying 2,000 pounds of coffee grown $3.46 (median from Table 5) minus adjusted Guatemala
in Guatemala that cups at 87. discount of $0.13 (from Figure 5); or $3.33.
Of course, the median prices presented in Table 5 do not – and should not – represent mandatory,
correct, or appropriate prices in any interpretation of these tables. Rather, they are statistical
references that may be useful to contracting parties seeking to understand their market positions and
develop value-based pricing strategies. This is evident in the wide range of prices paid for similar
coffees over the last three years. Prices reported here do show generally what recent FOB prices look
like in a segment of the specialty coffee market where pricing appears to be less tethered to
commodity prices. Therefore, they provide relevant contextual information for price negotiations
15
(which are accomplished at arm’s length by the parties to those transactions based on individual
circumstances).
The numbers in the revised 2019 Transaction Guide represent a large number of contracts and
substantial volumes of specialty coffee (see Table 2). Our estimates indicate that between 6% and 10%
of specialty coffees traded over the last three harvest years are included in the revised 2019
Transaction Guide. However, sellers and buyers should consider that the current roster of data donors
does not yet reflect the entire specialty market. It is therefore possible that many specialty coffees do
not sell within the reported price ranges.11
Sellers and buyers should also consider that these numbers do not indicate how much of the FOB price
makes it back to the farm gate, or whether that price allows farmers to cover costs of production or
pay themselves and others national minimum wages. As annual pricing data accumulate, our data will
support research efforts that help us better understand the complex relationships between FOB prices,
farm gate prices, and production costs. We also plan to use the Transaction Guide data to examine:
− how certifications influence green coffee prices12,
− how green prices vary across buying markets (e.g., North America, Europe, ANZ, Asia),
− how fixed versus differential contracting influences green prices,
− how the identity of coffee producers influences green coffee prices, and
− what quantitative and qualitative variables (aside from quality, lot size and growing region)
influence green prices.
We encourage readers to visit www.transactionguide.coffee to learn about all of these research

insights as they become available.
As the Specialty Coffee Transaction Guide project develops and expands in the coming years, the
annually updated pricing tables combined with accumulating data briefs and research reports should
provide a more robust informational foundation for the independent pricing of the value offered by
specialty coffees in ways that support short-term equity and longer-term sector sustainability.
11
The addition of roughly 3,000 additional contracts from 13 new data donors does not produce any major changes in the
statistics reported in this revised 2019 Transaction Guide, compared to those reported in the original 2019 Transaction
Guide (released in December 2019). This increases confidence in the validity of these numbers as relevant price references
for the specialty coffee industry.
12
This first Data Brief was released in August 2020. See “The Effects of FTO Certification on FOB Prices for Specialty
Coffees.”
16
Appendix. 2019 Data Donors
We are grateful for the trust, support and contract data provided by the following data donors:
32CUP Specialty Coffee Merchants Belgium Importer

Aldea Global Nicaragua Cooperative & Exporter
Algrano Switzerland Importer
Allegro Coffee USA Roaster
Ally Coffee USA Importer
Atlas Coffee Importers USA Importer
Azahar Coffee Company Colombia Exporter
Be Green Trading Company Switzerland Importer
Cafe Imports USA Importer
Café Kreyol USA Importer
Cafédirect UK Roaster
Campos Coffee Australia Roaster
Capricornio Coffees Brazil Exporter
Caravela Coffee UK Importer & Exporter
Cedro Alto Coffee Colombia Farmers’ Collective
Cocar Coffee Russia/Switzerland Importer
Collaborative Coffee Source Norway Importer
Communal Shamba Coffee Tanzania Producer
Condesa Co.Lab Australia Importer
Cooperative Coffees USA Importer
Counter Culture Coffee USA Roaster
Crop to Cup Coffee Importers USA Importer
Cup of Excellence USA Other
Daterra Brazil Producer
Equal Exchange USA Importer & Roaster
Falcon Coffees UK Importer
Five Senses Coffee Australia Roaster
Flying Roasters Germany Roaster
Gimme! Coffee USA Roaster
Hasbean Ozone UK & New Zealand Roaster
Intelligentsia Coffee USA Roaster
J Hill & Cia El Salvador Exporter
Johan & Nystrom Sweden Roaster
Just Us! Coffee Roasters Co-op Canada Roaster
Kariomons Coffee Roaster Japan Roaster
Lamplighter Coffee Roasters USA Roaster
Macercafe Nicaragua Producer
MadCap Coffee USA Roaster
Melbourne Coffee Merchants Australia Importer
Mercanta The Coffee Hunters UK Importer
Nordic Approach Norway Importer
17
O'Coffee - Brazilian Estates Brazil Producer & Exporter

Olam Specialty Coffee USA Importer
Olympia Coffee Roasting USA Roaster
Onyx Coffee Lab USA Roaster
Phoenix Coffee USA Roaster
PrimaVera Coffee Guatemala Importer & Exporter
Red Fox Coffee Merchants USA Importer
Reunion Coffee Roasters Canada Roaster
Ritual Coffee Roasters USA Roaster
Royal Coffee USA Importer
Rumble Coffee Roasters Australia Roaster
Salt Spring Coffee Canada Roaster
Seattle Coffee Works USA Roaster
Seven Seeds Coffee Australia Roaster
STC – Sustainable Trading Company Costa Rica Exporter
Stumptown Coffee Roasters USA Roaster
Sustainable Harvest USA Importer
Taylors of Harrogate UK Roaster
The Coffee Collective Denmark Roaster
The Coffee Source Costa Rica Importer
This Side Up Coffees Netherlands Importer
Transcend Coffee Canada Roaster
Twin Trading UK Importer
Union Coffee UK Roaster
Unitrade Coffee Guatemala Exporter
Upstream Coffee Imports Australia Importer
Verve Coffee Roasters USA Roaster
Village Coffee Imports USA Importer
Wonderstate Coffee USA Roaster
We also thank the organizations and individuals who provided funding during 2019 and 2020: Ally
Coffee, Atlas Coffee Importers, Allegro Coffee, Azahar Coffee Company, Caravela Limited, Catholic
Relief Services, Coffee Collective, Counter Culture Coffee, Cup of Excellence, Equal Exchange, Geoff
Watts, Intelligentsia Coffee, Madcap Coffee, Melbourne Coffee Merchants, Mercanta Ltd., Nordic
Approach, O'Coffee - Brazilian Estates, Olympia Coffee Roasting, Onyx Coffee Lab, Rumble Coffee
Roasters, S&D Coffee, Salt Spring Coffee, Seven Seeds, Social Enterprise @ Goizueta, Specialty Coffee
Association, Stumptown Coffee Roasters, Taylors of Harrogate, Transcend Coffee, Unitrade Coffee,
Upstream Coffee Imports, and Wonderstate Coffee.
________________________________________________________________________
2019 Specialty Coffee Transaction Guide (Revised)

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2019 Specialty Coffee Transaction Guide (Revised)

A collaboration between researchers at Transparent Trade Coffee (Emory University)

Version 2.2 (Revised)

Table 1. Current Sample (Revised)

Table 2. Three Years of FOB Prices (Revised)

FOB Prices by Quality Level

Table 3. FOB Prices in Different Quality Bands (Revised)

FOB Prices by Lot Size

Table 4. FOB Prices in Different Lot Size Bands (Revised)

FOB Prices by Quality Level and Lot Size

Figure 1. Quality Score Pricing Slopes, 3 Years

Figure 2. Lot Size Pricing Slopes, 3 Years

Table 5. FOB Prices for Specialty Coffees, 2018/2019 (Revised)

Year-over-Year FOB Price Changes

revised 2019 Transaction Guide displayed more stability.

Table 6. Median FOB Prices over 3 Years (Revised)

FOB Prices by Region and Country

Figure 4. Current Sample (Revised) across Regions, 3 Years

Median Price Median Quality Median Lot Size

Table 7. Median FOB Prices by Region, 3 Years (Revised)

Figure 5. Adjusted FOB Price Differences across Countries, 3 Years* (Revised)

Scenario: Price reference from the 2019 Transaction Guide:

We encourage readers to visit www.transactionguide.coffee to learn about all of these research

Appendix. 2019 Data Donors

32CUP Specialty Coffee Merchants Belgium Importer

O'Coffee - Brazilian Estates Brazil Producer & Exporter

2019 Specialty Coffee Transaction Guide (Revised)

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