Federal Department of Defence,

Civil Protection and Sport DDPS

armasuisse
Science and Technology

Emerging Technology Trends 2015

Thun 2015
Credits

Editor Federal Department of Defence, Civil Protection and Sport DDPS

armasuisse Science and Technology
Research Management and Operations Research

www.armasuisse.ch/wt
www.deftech.ch

Author Dr. Quentin Ladetto

Research Director - Technology Foresight
[email protected]

Release 1.3

Compiled on Tuesday 21st June, 2016 at 16:43

Front page: Emerging sun - view of the Earth from space

 Foreword

As the rate of development in technology is accelerating and civil investments are pushing
boundaries always closer to what was considered science-fiction until recently, the exploitation of
dual-use technologies is growing in the defence & security ecosystem.

If technology is not the only driver in the evolution of warfare, it is the enabler, not to say
the trigger, of most of the changes that occurred at the turning point between generations.

For a country like Switzerland, Technology Foresight is paramount to identify the opportuni-
ties and threats a technology can represent for the different military capabilities building our
national armed forces.

Rather than picking winners, the Technology Foresight program must provide a comprehensive
overview to ensure an early warning about novel relevant technological advances. Identifying
potentialities provides the time to build the necessary competences, skills and expertise, in the
various fields.
In that sense, Technology Foresight must be an integrated element of the doctrine, planing and
procurement processes of the armed forces.

Only with this strategic futuristic vision, the Swiss armed forces are able to handle, economi-
cally and operatively, the evolutions and challenges to come.

Dr. Thomas Rothacher

Director armasuisse Science and Technology
 Preface
Supported by exponential advances in technology in combination with the changes in the na-
ture of conflicts and warfare, any fixed predictions would be illusory given the evolutionary nature
the environment. The proliferation and accessibility of cutting edge military and dual-use tech-
nologies - once reserved almost exclusively to state actors - to non-state actors such as terrorist
organizations makes not only the anticipation but also the detection of threats a real challenge.
Falling costs and rapid changes in manufacturing (maker movement, Fablabs, etc.) also increases
the availability of cheap weapons that could offset the more sophisticated systems used by militaries.

Focusing on emerging technologies and how some of them might impact the battlefield of
tomorrow, the nature of this document can be considered as a continuous work-in-progress. It is the
emerging part of a research program gathering information from multiple sources and structuring it
in such a way it provides a strategical overview of technology horizon of the coming years.

This document structures the technologies in three main levels allowing the reader to access
the technological information at a strategic, tactical or operational (detailed) level, Figure 1. The
different sections are interactive between them and will be updated at regular interval with content
generated from the DEFTECH (Defence Future Technologies) platform. The scope of this platform
is first to centralize all the information and second to allow semantic search as well as bring to the
front some hidden relationships between technologies, industrial actors and military capabilities.

Figure 1: Philosophy of the document presenting three level of nested information, from a strategical
overview to a more operational and descriptive level of information. The information is extracted
automatically from the DEFTECH platform before being put into military context.
 Executive Summary

Technology Foresight is an instrument for long term anticipation that aims at supporting strategic
decisions.

Civilian investments and developments in technologies have overcome military resources in many
research fields; this means that dual-use technologies are becoming more and more present and
important on the battlefield as new combinations of existing components are used in vastly capable
ways. At the same time, the evolution in warfare brings established military forces to interact with
new actors using new methods of fighting. The resulting asymmetry in conflicts offers a fertile
ground for the use and combination of new technologies.

The major developments support an increase in four directions; these developments affect the
following four elements present in combat : Speed, Awareness & Connectivity, Precision and
Distance (or Reach):

Speed Speed is increasing and it is facilitated by developments in areas from

mobility to computing.

Awareness & Awareness about multiple elements such as location, physical indica-
Connectivity tors, situation, is available anywhere at anytime thanks to communi-
cation and connected sensors.

Precision From observation to action, sensors and processing power are en-
abling stochastic model to guide ammunitions better or to validate
decisions.

Distance Distance is not an issue anymore as systems can be operated remotely

from the theatre of operations.

Illustration: Leonardo da Vinci flying machine

2

The four trend types, and underlying technologies, directly support and improve reliability and
speed in every phase of the OODA (Observe-Orient-Decide-Act) loop; which is believed to be at
the center of victory in any battle.

The Defence Future Technologies Foresight program deals with all observable technological
trends that might have an impact on the defence landscape. Using a common taxonomy connects
the technologies with the industry and the military capabilities. Using directed emergent research
methods, there are five major categories which can be identified with underlying support clusters.
There is significant interplay between all aspects in a constantly dynamic and morphing landscape;
as technology both supports and is supported by other technologies for multiple application av-
enues. Regrouping the different technology fields into these categories, the following trends can be
identified.

Information & Communication - The Big Data and artificial intelligence challenge

With increasing computing power, the variety of sources of data from sensors to social networks, the
amount of information available about anything grows exponentially over time. As communications
media develops in parallel, any information will be available anyplace and anytime. Network-
centric warfare grows, and so does the cyber security threat.
With increased computational abilities, artificial intelligence and machine learning will help make
sense out of this Big Data challenge and are enabling the prediction of future behaviors as well as
the real-time presentation of scenarios that could favor a better situational awareness and better
decision processes.

The clusters of technologies considered in this category are:Communication, Computation, Cyber

Security, Internet of Things (IoT), Interfaces, Monitoring, Simulations, Social Crowd

Energy - The efficiency and diversification focus

The ability to acquire energy is becoming more and more compact as alternative methods in
the energy fields open the way to to renewable sources such as sun, the wind, biofuels. Progress in
storage, charging/generation, and weight are some of the key enablers for autonomous and remote
pilot systems.
Besides renewable energies, compact nuclear fusion and micro nuclear reactor could reduce the
necessity of operational logistic energy lines.
Directed-energy weapons using lasers and high-power microwave will supplement conventional
means of warfare.

The clusters of technologies considered in this category are: Efficiency, Management, Propul-
sion, Storage, Transformation

Nanotechnology & Materials - The high performance and adaptability enablers

Nanotechnologies are enabling the manufacture of lighter, stronger, more reliable, lower cost,
higher performance and more flexible electronic, magnetic, optical and mechanical devices.
Materials with new, different properties will appear; such as, self-adaptive materials responding to
the environment, this includes self-healing materials.
Different type of manufacturing such as Atomically Precise Manufacturing (APM) and Additive
Manufacturing (3D Printing) offers new opportunities for logistics and allow the creation and
 3

production of new forms and shapes.

The clusters of technologies considered in this category are: Base Compound, Biological, Construct,
Devices, Materials, Reactive

Life Science - The genetic, synthetic revolution and the augmented soldier

With quickly increasing capacity for the manipulation of DNA and creation of synthetic organisms,
it is now possible to better understand human genetic defects or vulnerabilities and target individuals
or groups specifically. Recruitment of soldiers could start before birth.
Novel chemical and biological weapons might appear more and more often; easily allowed by the
inexpensive production of microorganisms.
Human enhancements span from external systems such as exoskeletons to internal systems like
cognition enhancing nootropics; increasing the performance of the human brain. These aim to
produce more robust and enduring soldiers where health will be permanently monitored and their
capabilities improved.

The clusters of technologies considered in this category are: Biomedical Engineering, Biotechnolo-
gies, Cognitive & Umwelt Sensing, Medical Health, Networked, Sensors, Social.

Systems - The robotics, autonomous systems and space endeavors

The number of unmanned military systems is increasing. Starting with a man IN the loop (like
remotely piloted drones), the trend is to have systems, and swarms of systems, able to perform
without a human operator and manage extensive tasks in complicated environments for extended
periods of time (man OUT of the loop). Unmanned systems will have a major impact on logistics
and on how humans and machine will interact together to fight battles.
Low-cost space and above-atmosphere platforms offer new opportunities and threats for continuous
observation and communication.
New precision guided weapons together with hypersonic missiles and enhanced warhead technolo-
gies will play an important role in the conduct of operations.

The clusters of technologies considered in this category are: Flight, Infrastructure, Logistics,
Robotics, Weapons

The current and natural viewpoint on technological advances is a timeline where progress is
assumed to be a linear process; when, in fact, progress can be gaining momentum stealthily before
exploding out past our controls. Ideas are the name of the game and simple implementations can
have massive ripple effects. This is the reason why the present ecosystem will be permanently
monitored and expanded in order to anticipate the next technology wave!
 Contents

I Part One
1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

2 Technologies and the future of warfare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

2.1 The different generations of warfare 17
2.1.1 First generation warfare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
2.1.2 Second generation warfare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
2.1.3 Third generation warfare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
2.1.4 Fourth generation warfare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2.1.5 Fifth generation warfare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2.1.6 Sixth generation warfare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2.2 Why adopting new technologies? 20
2.3 Future military technology landscape 20
2.4 OODA - Observe 22
2.5 OODA - Orient 24
2.6 OODA - Decide 26
2.7 OODA - Act 27

3 Technology Foresight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
3.1 Energy & Resources 29
3.1.1 Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
3.1.2 Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

Illustration: Wall of dry stones, Sierre, Valais, Switzerland

3.1.3 Propulsion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
3.1.4 Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
3.1.5 Transformation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
3.2 Information & Communication 33
3.2.1 Communications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
3.2.2 Computation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
3.2.3 Internet of Things . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
3.2.4 Cyber Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
3.2.5 Interfaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
3.2.6 Simulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
3.2.7 Social Crowd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
3.2.8 Monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
3.3 Life Sciences 37
3.3.1 BioMechanical Engineering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
3.3.2 Cognitive & Umwelt Sensing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
3.3.3 Biotechnology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
3.3.4 Medical Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
3.3.5 Networked . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
3.3.6 Sensors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
3.3.7 Social . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
3.4 Nanotechnology and Material Science 41
3.4.1 Base Compound . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
3.4.2 Biological . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
3.4.3 Construct . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
3.4.4 Devices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
3.4.5 Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
3.4.6 Reactive . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
3.5 Systems 45
3.5.1 Flight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
3.5.2 Logistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
3.5.3 Robotics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
3.5.4 Weapons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

4 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

II Part Two

5 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
5.1 Introduction 53
5.2 Collection of the information 53
5.3 Platform of Information 55
5.4 Readiness 56
5.5 Dissemination of the Information 60
5.6 DEFTECH Platform 60
6 Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
6.1 3D memory chips 64
6.2 Augmented Reality 66
6.3 Bio authentification 68
6.4 Biologically extended senses 70
6.5 Bionic Implants 72
6.6 Brain to Brain Technologies 74
6.7 Computer vision 76
6.8 Context-aware computing 78
6.9 Emotion Tracking 80
6.10 Holographic technologies 82
6.11 Hypersonic technology 84
6.12 Immersive multi-user VR 86
6.13 Intelligent autonomous swarms 88
6.14 Internet of things 90
6.15 Labs on chips 92
6.16 Laser communication / free space opticals 94
6.17 Machine learning 96
6.18 Medical nanobots 98
6.19 MEMS 100
6.20 Nanobiotechnology 102
6.21 Nanoelectronics 104
6.22 Nanomaterials 106
6.23 Photovoltaic transparent glass 108
6.24 Portable Power 110
6.25 Predictive crime prevention 112
6.26 Quantum computing 114
6.27 Self-healing materials 116
6.28 Smart dust sensors 118
6.29 Smart materials 120
6.30 Stealth technologies & Dynamic camouflage 122
6.31 Synthetic Biology 124
6.32 Telepresence 126
6.33 Wearable computing 128

Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
Articles 131
Reports 131
Online 132

Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
 List of Figures

1 Philosophy of the document . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

1.1 The acceleration of the Human Progress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

1.2 Civil vs military adoption of technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1.3 The complexity of the technology foresight exercise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

2.1 Diagram of a decision cycle known as the OODA loop . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

3.1 Emerging cross-sector technologies relevant for defence . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

5.1 From technology foresight to the concrete use of the technology . . . . . . 54

5.2 The adopted process for the technology forsesigh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
5.3 The Swissnex network around the world . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
5.4 The technologies, the industry and the military capabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
5.5 Display of the impact of a technology on the military capabilities . . . . . . 58
5.6 Harmonic means as readiness indicator for the delivery drone . . . . . . . . . 59
5.7 Example of readiness indicator for the delivery drone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
5.8 Printscreen of the readiness visualization application . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
5.9 DEFTECH Vision 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

6.1 Example of a cross reference technology matrix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

Illustration: Sun coming out of the clouds

I
Part One

1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

2 Technologies and the future of warfare 17

2.1 The different generations of warfare
2.2 Why adopting new technologies?
2.3 Future military technology landscape
2.4 OODA - Observe
2.5 OODA - Orient
2.6 OODA - Decide
2.7 OODA - Act

3 Technology Foresight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
3.1 Energy & Resources
3.2 Information & Communication
3.3 Life Sciences
3.4 Nanotechnology and Material Science
3.5 Systems

4 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
 1. Introduction

In order to anticipate the future of the armed forces and their operational capabilities, it is paramount
to follow the advances in the numerous civilian and military technological fields. The main reason
is a reciprocal relationship between doctrine and technology. While the doctrine shows how military
forces are deployed, technologies enable these possible actions, which, in their turn influence their
deployments. Technological superiority does not necessarily lead to success. However successful
doctrine often exploits the full technological potential available. At the same time it is important
to ensure that a doctrine, through technological innovations and other developments, remains
competitive against any opponent as well as any form of opposition. Unfamiliarity cannot be
confused with improbability, thus there is a requirement to maintain a deeper awareness of the
direction of technological advances and how they could converge to provide advantage to possible
adversaries. Technology scanning and technology monitoring are central to this purpose. By
taking advantage of opportunities, assessing and mitigating risks, they are both necessary for the
development of the national doctrine, as well as for the continuous revision of planning scenarios
[Defa].
An effective technology forecasting must draw attention to new technologies and relevant
technology developments that will impact the security forces. Using technology monitoring, which
has a slightly closer time horizon than technology forecasting, security forces can be advised
whether they can rely on a new technology or not, if they have to adopt it (ex. replacement of a
technology) and when the right time is to do it. On one hand it guarantees to invest only in mature
technologies and on the other hand, it makes sure not to miss any emerging technological advances.
Only this way can financial resources be efficiently invested in appropriate technologies [Defb].
To minimize the risk of bad investments, technology assessments must be included into the early
stages of the military projects and procurements processes. To this purpose, the current technological
trends and developments are constantly observed thanks to a comprehensive forecasting and an
aligned monitoring. The focus should not be set too tightly on pure defence technologies; civilian
technologies with dual-use potential play more and more an important role as development cycles
tend to become shorter, alongside with military budgets for R&D.

Illustration: Swiss national flag in front of the Breithorn, Tschingelhorn and Gspaltenhorn
14 Chapter 1. Introduction

This broad focus is the direct consequence of a paradigm shift in technology development,
which has taken place over the past two decades. While it was almost evident that both military and
space research were driven by the advances in technologies for the last centuries, always looking
for better equipment, the pace of technological progress today is dictated in many areas by the
civilian market, and its increasing speed by the combination of different technologies, Figure 1.1.

Figure 1.1: The acceleration of the Human Progress is not only, but strongly influenced by the
improvements in technologies and combination of those.

As more and more technologies are both usable in civilian as well as military environments,
security forces are increasingly subject to adopt the technologies from the civil markets. This
can be really interesting considering an economic perspective. However, very satisfying civilian
technologies do not always meet the requirements of emergency services leading to expensive
adjustments. As a consequence, the adoption of the latest technologies happens less rapidly than in
the civilian world. If during history, security forces always used the latest available technologies,
they seem today to be on the run in keeping track with them, Figure 1.2 (inspired by [FH14]).
The development of civilian technologies is carried out in some areas very dynamically, partially
complementary, sometimes parallel and in great variety. This results in products, which open up new
possibilities and practices, but also generate new business models and force old ones to disappear.
This phenomena is called disruption. Because disruptive developments may affect the sustainability
of economic, social, legal, ethical and operational environments, they must be recognized by the
security forces and included in their development and planning processes. Understanding these
technologies allows to better embrace them, but also to better anticipate the threat they might
represent if used by the adversary.
In general technologies support military systems. To be successful, systems normally require
 15

Figure 1.2: Technological progress plays an important role in everyday life. However, its adoption
by society is slower than the technological progresses themselves. In the past years, military
operations have always benefited from advances in technologies before the civilian did. In the
recent years, a shift of paradigm occurred, resulting in having increasing civilian technologies used
with military purposes (dual-use). In red you see how different technologies can be used over time
to enhance the performance of a function.

several enabling or complementary technologies that must all come to fruition before the system
itself becomes viable, Figure 1.3, inspired by [Grü12]. This makes the task of forecasting difficult
as one must examine progress across all the supporting technology components prior to looking at
the overall system [Toc14].
As partial scope of the research program "Technology Foresight", technological developments
are anticipated and described with relevance to the state security forces. It is not so much about
forecasting technological advances, but rather to sketch future possible scenarios using a structured
and continuously-driven approach. The output will then be discussed with the interested parties
and will provide an input for the development and planning processes of the military forces. The
procurement agency should know in time and as accurately as possible what new technologies
emerge and how relevant they may be for military equipment. They need to know with certainty if
the adoption of a new technology must be dispensable, useful or absolutely necessary.
16 Chapter 1. Introduction

Figure 1.3: The complexity of the technology foresight exercise. To understand how a technology
will evolve, it is dangerous to consider it isolated. By studying its ecosystem and the systems in
which it is integrated, you get a better idea of its maturity and potential disruptive nature.
 2. Technologies and the future of warfare

The assessment of the impact of technologies on future warfare cannot be done in isolation without
considering both the evolution of warfare and the social and political environment within which it
has evolved. How, where and who are fighting the new conflicts influence the technologies that will
be used. Even if how technologies will be combined and put into action might not appear clearly,
understanding the context will help identifying them and hopefully anticipate countermeasures as
well as issues that will arise.
The periodization presented here is mainly to structure the context in which we will be evolving in
the coming years. The attributes of the different generations are of course debatable.

2.1 The different generations of warfare

The notion of warfare, as well as victory and defeat, has evolved over the modern ages, always
tightly bound with progresses and changes in technologies and strategy. It is important to notice
that despite the fact that these generations appear in different period in time, they can co-exist
depending on how adversaries are operating.

Illustration: Detail of the battle of Austerlitz, also known as the Battle of the Three Emperors, 1805
 18 Chapter 2. Technologies and the future of warfare

2.1.1 First generation warfare

Title Massed manpower

Appearance 1648 (end of 30 Year’s war)
Actors States, small professional armies
Strategy Destruction of the enemy’s front
Method of fighting Man-to-man
Technologies Bore rifles
Turning point The increased accuracy and speed of the rifled musket and breech-
loaders made the concept of line fighting soldiers impracticable
due to the heavy casualties caused by these new technologies.

Table 2.1: First generation warfare

2.1.2 Second generation warfare

Title Conscription
Appearance 1793 (Napoleon)
Actors States, armies of citizen
Strategy Seek decisive battle in order to destroy the opponent’s army and
his capacity to resist.
Method of fighting Man-to-man
Technologies Bore rifles, artillery
Turning point Rise of a new ideology: the nationalism. Use of the railway to
move supply and soldiers.

Table 2.2: Second generation warfare

2.1.3 Third generation warfare

Title Massed firepower

Appearance 1915
Actors States
Strategy Destruction of the enemy’s fighting force (military and civilian if
necessary).
Method of fighting Fixed-artillery-to-men
Technologies Breech-loaders, magazine rifle, machine gun, artillery, camouflage
uniforms, radio, railway
Turning point The use of blitzkrieg during the German invasion of France demon-
strated the power of speed and maneuverability over static artillery
positions and trench defences.

Table 2.3: Third generation warfare

I would like to thank Dr. Jean-Marc Rickli for the very helpful and insightful comments provided in this section.
 2.1 The different generations of warfare 19

2.1.4 Fourth generation warfare

Title Strategic manoeuvring

Appearance 1939
Actors States
Strategy Destruction of the enemy’s command and control
Method of fighting Tanks/bombers-to-cities/armies
Technologies Tank, mechanized infantry, airplanes, helicopters, missiles
Turning point Conflicts integrating non-states actors and loss by the nation of
their near-monopoly on combat forces, returning to modes of
conflict common in premodern times.

Table 2.4: Fourth generation warfare

2.1.5 Fifth generation warfare

Title Decentralized & psychological warfare

Appearance 1945
Actors States and non-state actors
Strategy Winning by not losing
Method of fighting Propagandist-to-populations
Technologies Military technologies accessible by state as well as non-state ac-
tors (drones, missiles, etc.). Simultaneous use of old and new
technologies.
Turning point Not reached.

Table 2.5: Fifth generation warfare

2.1.6 Sixth generation warfare

Title Invisible/intellectual warfare [Dan]

Appearance 9/11 2001
Actors States and non-state actors
Strategy Doing such that one side doesn’t know who it is fighting against,
or even better, ignores that there ever was a war.
Method of fighting Cells-to-states, cells-to-populations
Technologies All technologies and the new possible combinations of these tech-
nologies
Turning point Not reached.

Table 2.6: Sixth generation warfare

The evolution of technologies support a complete shift of paradigm of the conflicts as presented in
Table 2.7. It does not mean that these conflicts will happen using the latest technologies, but they
will be most probably supported and enabled by them (social media, satellite phone, etc.)
 20 Chapter 2. Technologies and the future of warfare

Traditional Conflict Paradigm New Conflict Paradigm

Specific moment and place Enlargement of the spatial dimension

Encounter on a battlefield Geographical indeterminacy of theatre of opera-
tions

Sharply-etched sequential timeframe Transformation of the temporal element

Recognizable beginning and end of engagement Simultaneous multiplicity of points of interaction;
Concurrent acceleration and deceleration of en-
gagement

Well-defined actors Mutation of the belligerents’ identity

Soldiers (as state agents), civilians Obliteration of combatant/civilian categories

Armies attacking armies Expansion of the nature of targets

Military targets, siege warfare, proportionality Increasing blending of civilian and military tar-
gets

Traditional weaponry Systematization of asymmetrical warfare

Targeted use of kinetic force Amplification of the platform of combat;
Weaponization of civilian assets

Table 2.7: The evolution of the conflict paradigm after 9/11, [Moh05]

2.2 Why adopting new technologies?

The principle of adopting new technologies in modern warfare has always consisted in a temporary
advantage for the one owning it. Technology alone, being either civilian or military, is not enough,
but the evolution of the different generations of warfare, showed that it is an important driver and
enabler. As the pace of technological development is growing exponentially, in order to maintain a
strategic advantage, it is indispensable to stay ahead of the curve.
It is however very important to mention that technology alone is not enough. A purely technological
approach is misleading because strategy is about the way you use technology: so investments in
human factor and innovation in doctrine are key.
The adoption of new technologies is also seen as necessary to deny the adversary a unilateral
military advantage. Since the creation of nuclear weapons, the potential use of such weapons being
so devastating, the strategical purpose of owning such technology is for the non-use of the force.
This can seem a paradox given the very essential purpose of the development of a technology.

2.3 Future military technology landscape

The approach considered here to anticipate the future military technology landscape is to understand
the main trends and desires leading to the development of new technologies before presenting the
different technologies themselves. As addressed in Section 2.1, there is an evolution in warfare
supported by technologies. The future developments can be associated with the four following
trends presented in table 2.8.
Putting the four trends into the context of the OODA loop (Observe-Orient-Decide-Act), Figure
2.1, we realize that the future military technology landscape contributes to the optimization of
every part of the loop as well as its whole. This takes place at different levels; from improving
2.3 Future military technology landscape 21

Speed Speed is increasing and it is facilitated by developments in areas from

mobility to computing.

Awareness & Awareness about multiple elements such as location, physical indicators,
Connectivity situation, is available anywhere at anytime thanks to communication and
connected sensors.

Precision From observation to action, sensors and processing power are enabling
stochastic model to guide ammunitions better or to validate decisions.

Distance Distance is not an issue anymore as systems can be operated remotely

from the theatre of operations.

Table 2.8: The four main trends that will affect the future of warfare

the reliability of the information to the complete automation of the decision process. The value
of the OODA loop is that it captured the essence of the decisional process and applies it to all the
hierarchy of the armed forces; from the individual soldier facing life-threatening situations, to the
general strategically leading the army. It is believe that the actor who could go through all the 4
phases (and not only the last one) as quick as possible will gain superiority and ultimately win a
direct confrontation.
Under OODA loop theory every combatant observes the situation, orients himself, decides what to
do and then does it. If his opponent can do this faster, however, his own actions become outdated
and disconnected to the true situation, and his opponent’s advantage increases geometrically. -
John Boyd
The following sub-sections will try to showcase the different technology trends affecting each phase
of the process. Note that the OODA is applied to the technology foresight process itself.

Figure 2.1: Diagram of a decision cycle known as the OODA loop (or commonly called also the
Boyd cycle).
Note how orientation shapes observation, shapes decision, shapes action and in turn is shaped by
other phenomena coming into our sensing or observing window.
Also note how the entire loop (not just orientation) is an ongoing many-sided implicit cross-
referencing process of projection, empathy, correlation and rejection. [Boy95]
 22 Chapter 2. Technologies and the future of warfare

2.4 OODA - Observe

Foresight Continuous and ubiquitous observation is made possible by a diversity of

interconnected sensors operating in all the environments: sea, land, air and
space.
Simultaneous access to micro/detailed and macro/broad scale information
is available for all type of assets (individual, environmental, contextual,
political, etc.).
Behaviors and patterns of physical and digital activities are available as
well as the measurements of all substances of interest (chemical, biological,
etc).
Reliable and secure connectivity becomes a key component to maintain
up-to-date situational awareness superiority.
Global awareness is reached in the visible, in the measurable and in the
detectable providing the necessary input for anticipation.

Speed Time between the occurrence and the acknowledgement of an event is

almost immediate.

Awareness & Numerous sources of different forms of information (written, vocal, im-
Connectivity ages, measurable, etc.) are merged together to provide synthetic reliable
content. The information is made available immediately to all interested
parties, independently of their location.

Precision From smart dust to satellites, the variety of available sensors allows a
tailoring of the collected information serving the exact purpose of the
needs.

Distance The notion of physical distance is replaced here by the accessibility to the
original observation/data.
2.4 OODA - Observe 23

Technology Trends in situation

Generated by a multitude of distributed connected sensors in/on sea, land, air and
space, signals coming from detectors of different natures (labs on the chip) are processed
in real-time and merged to allow a continuous flow of analysis on desired topics. On-board
processing allows image, video and voice recognition directly on the sensors, which powered
by self-rechargeable batteries offer autonomy to the sensor. The status of all entities such as
humans (quantified self), systems, environments and processes are continuously known and
monitored. Advances in observation also challenge any new stealth strategy and friend-foe
identification.

Secured high-volume wireless communication enables permanent access to a growing

volume of data from everywhere. Cyber security concern is growing as the access to and the
reliability of the data as well as its source is paramount. Big data analysis and visualization
provide the necessary support to create synthetic information and meaning out of the noise.

Semantic analysis, automatic translator and artificial intelligence applied to human in-
teractions, from social networks to face-to-face communication, offer a better understanding and
interaction capabilities between actors of different natures, origins or traditions.

The convergence of all the progresses in the different fields leads towards a more unbi-
ased mental model of the reality, as changes are immediately reflected in the observations.

Related technology clusters

• Cognitive Umwelt • Energy Storage

• Communication • Medical Sensors
• Computation • Monitoring
• Cyber Security • Social
 24 Chapter 2. Technologies and the future of warfare

2.5 OODA - Orient

Foresight Prevalence of data fusion and statistics to present the information and help
make sense of the situation in an objective way.
Direct access to world-wide knowledge in every field and previous experi-
ences allows the validation of the assumptions and the creation of possible
scenarios.
The representation of the information is intuitive and where necessary
integrated within a virtual environment superposed to the reality.

Speed Intuitive representation of the information help people understand the

situation more quickly and therefore minimizes the delay between the
observation and its interpretation. Adaptability is improved.

Awareness & The fusion of previous experiences and all relevant sources of information
Connectivity helps building a reliable representation of the situation.

Precision Subjective interpretations are minimized leading to a more precise assess-

ment of the situation.

Distance/Reach All the necessary information to proceed to the decision is delivered to the
person independently of the location of this person.
2.5 OODA - Orient 25

Technology Trends in situation

The continuous improvement in processing power makes possible the computation of

important quantity of data, Big Data. Big data visualization and analytics allows to observe
trends that the human brain cannot process because of the complexity of the data. It also enables
artificial intelligence (AI) to provide the analyses, anticipation and prediction of situation via
possible futures and to suggest consequence-aware actions. Most of the time, considering the
numerous parameters being taken into account, computational models will influence the mental
model of the situation.

Augmented and virtual realities facilitate the understanding and representation of the
situation. The orientation can happen directly where the observation or the action takes place
even if the integration process of all various sources of information occurs elsewhere. People on
the field for example are equipped with systems and displays on which synthesized information
supporting the decision process appears. Man-machine interface is improved to access digital
information directly. The feedback loop with the observations is shortened and new orientation,
even complex ones, can happen instantaneously.

Information and knowledge are not the privileges of commanders anymore (Internet,
social media, experts, etc.).

Related technology clusters

• BioMechanical Engineering • Robotics

• Computation • Simulations
• Networked • Interfaces
 26 Chapter 2. Technologies and the future of warfare

2.6 OODA - Decide

Foresight Decisions are supported and suggested by statistics and artificial represen-
tations. The different alternatives as well as their respective consequences
are presented and the one optimizing the defined criteria is selected.
In some situations, decisions are not taken by humans anymore.

Speed Assisted (suggested) decisions are the results of algorithmic models coming
directly out of the orient phase.

Awareness & Decisions are taken after simulation and assessment of their consequences.
Connectivity

Precision The decision is considered as the most appropriate choice between multiple
alternatives (ideally).

Distance/Reach As decisions are supported by machines there is a distance in the feeling

of accountability for an action.

Technology trends in situation

Because of the evolution of weapons performing at increasing speeds, decisions need

to be taken always more quickly, while considering always more elements. As a consequence,
suggested decisions resulting from computed scenarios and optimization functions open the way
to autonomy and man out-of-the-loop systems.
A major challenge that will be faced because of the importance played by Artificial Intelligence
in the future is the diffusion of decision-making towards non-human entities.

Related technology clusters

• Robotics • BioMechanical Engineering

• Networked • Computation
• Social • Interfaces
 2.7 OODA - Act 27

2.7 OODA - Act

Foresight Possible actions are tested simultaneously and the one offering the most
satisfactory outcome is selected.
The actors might be systems operating or being operated remotely with a
human in-, on- or out-of-the-loop.
The actors, humans and machines, are tailored and optimized for the
requested actions.

Speed Actions might happen with such a high pace that it will leave the adversary
caught off guards.

Awareness & Simulation makes preparation and training possible for an action. People
Connectivity on and off the the battlefield are permanently connected improving collab-
oration between squad-members.
Consequences of actions are directly observable, providing feedback to
the first phase of the sequence.

Precision Actions focus on selected targets only, minimizing co-lateral damages.

Distance/Reach Actions can be performed remotely.

28 Chapter 2. Technologies and the future of warfare

Technology Trends in situation

Actions in 5th and 6th generation warfare will be achieved by a variety of entities in-
cluding humans, machines, programs and a combination of all of those. Interactions between
humans and machines is omnipresent.

Soldiers are more and more confronted with their physical and physiological limitations. This
is why the trend is to reduce their human necessities (such as eating, drinking, sleeping, pain
feeling, etc.) via drugs and/or training while augmenting and enhancing their machine-like
skills by the intermediary of sensors (augmented reality googles, night-vision, exoskeletons, etc.).

Remotely piloted, semi- and autonomous systems, hypersonic guided missiles build a
growing distance between actors.

Developments in nanotechnologies, genomics and synthetic biology might also con-

tribute to the selective targeting of individuals or group of individuals offering certain
particularities. Doing so can be performed by using vectors that are easy to build, hard
to monitor and almost immediately obsolete after use. Normally requiring well-equipped
laboratories and skilled researchers, off-the-shelf kits will make the tools of genetic engineering
accessible to many, elevating concerns on the biodefence front [DAR15].

Related technology clusters

• Energy Propulsion
• BioMechanical Engineering
• Logistics
• Biological
• Reactive Materials
• Biotechnology
• Robotics
• Cyber Security
• Weapons

As we can anticipate from the 5th and 6th generation warfare, civilian and dual-use technolo-
gies will play more and more an important role in asymmetrical conflicts involving non-state actors.
An overview of these technologies and why they are relevant to military activities is presented in
the following chapter.
 3. Technology Foresight

As nicely stated by Alex Churchill, UK Defence Science & Technology Deputy Head Strategy, tech-
nology foresight is more about identifying the relevant races that defence and security organisations
must address, rather than picking the winners. Adding to the complexity, the diversity and pace of
the developments in civil technologies that may have an impact on military applications is growing
rapidly and cannot be ignored. Furthermore, all the developments in the different areas happen
almost simultaneously, therefore the results in one domain can quickly influence the progresses in
one other domain. Figure 3.1 presents an overview of the identified relevant technologies field for
the United Kingdom [PHB13].
Structuring the overview of the technology trends, the compatibility of the information with
other studies and the evolution of its content plead for the adoption of the classification in 5 main
domains adapted from the BRINES American National Defense University [Toc14]: Energy &
Resources, Information & Communication, Nanotechnology and Materials, Life Sciences, and
Systems.

3.1 Energy & Resources

Energy security is paramount and the intrinsic condition for all military operations. Security will
come from interdependence that could be pursued in four strands:
1. Energy efficiency
2. Diversity of supply
3. Development of supply/demand partnership
4. Increasing renewable supplies
The enormous amount of energy used by the military means that efficiency, in and of itself, will have
a very short payback period. From an operational point of view, energy lines of communication are
vulnerable and expensive to maintain so shifting focus from supply side to demand side is logical
from both fiscal and operational perspective.

Illustration: Wright Brothers - Measured drawings of the 1903 Wright Flyer, Plate 2
 30 Chapter 3. Technology Foresight

Figure 3.1: 16 emerging cross-sector technologies with particular relevance for defence; The total
publication activity by technology area and the split between overall hits and defence-specific hits
is presented.

3.1.1 Efficiency
The capacity for being fast and efficient can mean success or failure in the field. With more
resources requiring electricity to operate escalating demands should be quelled. Acquiring energy,
transmitting energy, and effectively using energy gives an edge in deployed assets for their ability
to remain self-sufficient and reduce expenditures on unnecessary losses.

Trends

• E-Mili
• Portable solar
• Energy Intelligent Buildings
• Ultra-Efficient Solar Power
• Fast Charging Batteries

Applications
Advancements in the length of asset deployments and working capacities for these assets is
growing. The capability to use energy in the field leads to extended uses of current, possibly energy
conservative, technologies.

Military Relevance
The enormous amount of energy used by the military means that efficiency, in and of itself, will have
a very short payback period. From an operational point of view, energy lines of communication are
vulnerable and expensive to maintain so shifting focus from supply side to demand side is logical
from both fiscal and operational perspective. More efficient and diversified means of generating
energy will increase resilience within the network as individual islands would not be caught up
within cascading failures and would be harder to target. Transport of the energy over long distance
will also be minimized.
 3.1 Energy & Resources 31

3.1.2 Management
Currently energy infrastructure is experiencing vulnerability due to its highly localized and outdated
methodologies. The systems are vulnerable to cyber-penetration attacks and system fluctuations.
As the global energy demands rises, so does the need for dynamic and effective energy management
solutions.

Trends

• Small modular nuclear reactors

• Distributed power generation
• Smart energy network
• First-generation smart grid
• Smart wind and solar power
• Long-range wireless charging
• Supergrids

Applications
Defense against new threats towards civilian energy infrastructure. Dynamic deployment of energy
supplies to assets. Awareness of emerging weaknesses and threats.

Military Relevance
Having the capability to create and connect to heterogeneous electricity grid networks benefits the
flexible deployment and the repair of damaged grids. Smart energy management is important at any
level and for any type of devices. Being able to remotely provide power to elements could support
advances in man-operated and autonomous systems.

3.1.3 Propulsion
Moving assets from one location to another is a vital component in any operation; whether it’s for
surveillance, reconnaissance or for deployment. Advancements in other energy areas can lead to
sudden improvements in this sector.

Trends

• Electric vehicles • Pulse detonation engine

• EM Drive • Solar sail
Applications
Transportation, Travel, Surveillance, Exploration.

Military Relevance
The focus on speed and endurance has a direct influence on maneuverability, but also on the gener-
ation of noise, pollution and heat. New vehicles and assets may develop new stealth capabilities
being more silent and with less heat signatures. High speed capabilities might also decrease reaction
time and make some defense systems obsolete. Consequently, the adoption of a certain type of
propulsion could completely modify the military logistics and supply chain.

3.1.4 Storage
Energy storage and transport has had very little innovation for quite some time; this opportunity
has been recognized by large commercial players as well as research institutes. Renewed interest
has spurred innovation and incentives for transforming the sector. Recent developments show large
promise for noticeable increases in performance.
 32 Chapter 3. Technology Foresight

Trends
• Air and water fuel • Printed batteries
• Artificial photosynthesis • Second-generation biofuels
• Biological Batteries • Solid State Batteries
• Hydrogen Energy • Wearable batteries
• Lithium-air batteries • Zinc Poly
Applications
Infrastructure; asset deployment; remote systems; batteries; portable power; fuels.
Military Relevance
Improving energy storage on the soldier can highly reduce the weight and the necessary logistics to
operate modern warfare equipments. As energy storage is vital for autonomous systems to operate,
any reduction in weight will improve the duration of their mission.

3.1.5 Transformation
The energy transformation ecosystem is growing into a more diversified pool of technological
advancements as more and more elements are potential generator of energy.
Trends
• Airborne Wind Energy Systems • Piezoelectric power
• Fusion • Sewage
• Low Energy Nuclear Reactions (LENR) • Solar Panel Windows
• Micro nuclear reactors • Tidal Power
• Perovskite-based Solar Cells • Transparent Photovoltaic Glass

Applications
Dual-use infrastructure, Asset supply, Independent power generators.
Military Relevance
More efficient and diversified means of generating energy increase the resilience within the network
and the possibility of creating local grids. Independent and mobile power generators would be more
difficult to target. The transport of the energy over long distance can also be minimized.
 3.2 Information & Communication 33

3.2 Information & Communication

The volume and diversity of information shared every day around the globe, by wire or over the air;
the apparition of new ways of performing tasks, of representing global and individual, real, virtual
and augmented reality (or realities!) are supported by the combination of enabling technologies.
They have already changed our everyday lives and will completely change military operations.

3.2.1 Communications
Bottlenecks in communicative infrastructures can cause catastrophic failures. Data is growing
exponentially; and, it must be transmitted between multitudes of new devices. There are several
methods being explored and built to handle the new loads.
Trends
• 5G mobile network
• Hidden / DarkNet / Deep Web
• Aerial wireless network
• Laser communications
• Cloud communications
• Software-Defined Radio (SDR)
• Faster Internet
Applications
Everything to Everything communication, Transport, Logistics, Simulated Environments, Informa-
tion
Military Relevance
Military Command and Control (C2) will use space-based system coupled with meshed networks
systems to support deployed operations and allow data exchange in austere environments wherein
units will join ad hoc networks built upon the devices belonging to the friendly forces. Mobile
communication devices (MCD) will share intelligence, translate languages, provide navigation,
targeting data and blue force position while maintaining visual contact with the surrounding
environment.

3.2.2 Computation
Computational abilities are affected by several underlying technologies and innovations; and, is
one of the largest sectors in the market. The implications for breakthroughs can mean drastic shifts
in short amounts of time. Moore’s Law continues to be relevant.
Trends
• 3D Holographic Data Storage • Memristor
• 3D Memory Chips • Quantum computing
• Context-aware computing • Speckled Computing
Applications
Design, Logistics, Pattern Recognition, Scenario Modeling, Real Time Intelligence
Military Relevance
The importance of computational speed is paramount for military systems as it must allow to go
through the OODA loop quicker than the opponent. Computational speed is also the enabler or the
prohibitor for various applications such as Big Data analysis and cryptography.

3.2.3 Internet of Things

Combining sensor technology with increased efficiencies is allowing for an explosion of new
information available for monitoring and interacting with. From infrastructural and machine parts,
to innumerable real world contexts like pedestrian flow to anything you might be holding right now.
 34 Chapter 3. Technology Foresight

Trends
• Big Data • Ubiquitous Computing
• Smart Dust • Wifi for things
Applications
Monitoring and Interacting with Everything
Military Relevance
The Internet of Things and its "connected everything" offers direct inputs and feedback opportuni-
ties to the OODA loop. Inventory and logistics can be optimized thanks to traceability as already
performed in the commercial industry. Friend-foe identification, perimeter access control, presence
of explosive and hazardous gases are examples of applications that IoT will facilitate. Coping with
Big Data, fusing all the information will provide a zoomable, multi-scale quantitative representation
of the battlefield.

3.2.4 Cyber Security

Cybersecurity protocols must be implemented by hand, and diagnosed with teams; giant leaps
are being made in algorithmic modeling in several applicable areas from genomics to auto-deploy
machine learning attack and defense systems.
Trends
• BioAuthentication • Infrastructure Security
• Computer Vision • Machine Learning
• Cyber hardening • Risk Analysis & Decision Making
• Deep learning • Self-configuring/healing/optimizing/etc
Applications
Defense, Infrastructure, Data, Intellectual Property, Private Information, Operational Controls,
Authentication
Military Relevance
Considering cyber attack (and not only), the overall security of any network is only as strong as the
weakest link connected to it. Given the importance of communication (voice & data) in the military
applications of tomorrow, centralized network management systems will not be able to cope with
the new challenges. To enhance capability, dynamic planning mechanisms based on artificial
intelligence and learning systems will assist in the pro-active provision of service delivery at the
right time, at the right place. Systems that will have enhanced self-diagnosis/self-adaptive/healing
platforms and network capabilities will be developed.

3.2.5 Interfaces
Interfaces increase the speed and effective manipulation of digital tools for more depth of control.
Creating a connection with a person through a captured medium, creating new real spaces and
interlaying new information through the senses.
Trends
• Annotated-reality Glasses • Immersive Spatial Interfaces
• Augmented Reality • Metaverse
• Gesture Based Interactions • Virtual Reality Accessories
• Holographic technologies • Wearable Computing

Applications
Data Input, Information Delivery, Strategic Support, Training
 3.2 Information & Communication 35

Military Relevance
Military systems will provide continuously updated status and holistic knowledge bases to the
soldiers in the field. As more and more information is available, the five senses will be used to
interpret it and to interact with it. Interfaces directly connected to the brain will allow to blend
information and reality together while simultaneously enhancing man-machine interface and speed.

3.2.6 Simulations
Understanding the human form to greater degrees allows for faster information delivery and uptake
by individuals; resulting in better training and conditioning programs taking less time with more
effective results through the use of feedback simulations and new haptic technologies.
Trends
• Biofeedback Video Game • Immersive Virtual Reality
• Holoroom
Applications
HR, Recuitment, Troop Training, Education, Scenarios, Design
Military Relevance
By having access in real time to risk analysis, advanced simulation outcome and subject matter
expertise, artificial intelligence will transform the decision-making process on the battlefield by
making prediction and bringing the entire military wisdom and lessons learned to the soldier in
mission. Simulations also offer lower training costs and the exposure to mission critical scenarios.

3.2.7 Social Crowd

Gathering information has always been subject to a certain cost and availability. Individuals’
abilities to connect and coordinate with large groups revolutionize how quickly ideologies can be
spread and actions instigated. The ability to monitor social sentiments has never been so expansive
or so inexpensive; and, neither has the ability to manipulate emotions and perspectives.
Trends
• Biohacking • Empathic Things
• Emotion Tracking • Quantified self
Applications
Sentiment Monitoring, Social Influence, Decision Herding
Military Relevance
Analytical tools that visualize and fuse data from different sources will interpret data and search
for patterns. These algorithms will monitor the battlefields and autonomously move supplies and
forces based on demand indicators and signals received and computed from the battlefield. The
openness of information brings visibility and will make military leaders to be more accountable for
their actions. The military will need to be adaptive to these issues in its recruiting, training and
operations.

3.2.8 Monitoring
From the hunting plains of the desert thousands of years ago to the ability to scan uncountable
numbers of images digitally, and search through semantic contexts, modern day monitoring systems
have transformed our basic abilities to see and notice things into very large-scale acquisition
through innumerable means. Surveillance and monitoring provides invaluable information to
strategic decisions.
36 Chapter 3. Technology Foresight

Trends
• Sequentially Timed All-optical Mapping
• Environment Mapping
Photography (STAMP)
• Microelectromechanical Systems (MEMS)
• Video & Image Recognition
Applications
Surveillance, Movements, Threat Detections, Opportunity Finding
Military Relevance
Continuous real-time monitoring from Earth and Space is the ultimate goal allowing an up-to-date
situational awareness picture of the battlefield. Monitoring is key for all information services as
well as the necessary enabler for future autonomous systems.
 3.3 Life Sciences 37

3.3 Life Sciences

Rapid advances primarily driven by commercial research and applications have made biotechnology
and genetic engineering able to alter genes and combine them with one another. Human enhance-
ments, going from external systems such as exoskeletons to cognition enhancers that increase the
performance of the human brain, aim at producing more robust and enduring soldiers. The soldiers’
health will be permanently monitored and their capabilities improved.

3.3.1 BioMechanical Engineering

The technologies in this cluster center around the synthesis of mechanical engineering and knowl-
edge of biological function, with the intent to yield an increase in efficiency in the areas where
the two overlap. From the increasing efficacy of prosthetics and exoskeletal wearables, to tools,
vehicles and weapons that are easier and more efficient to operate, Biomechanical Engineering is
making its way into every facet of human life.
Trends
• 3D Printed / Advanced Prosthetics • Powered Exosuits
• Bionic implants • Pulse Oximetry (Blood O2)
Applications
Imaging, Skeletal Motion Mechanics, Cardiovascular, Soft Tissue, Cell,
Military Relevance
The integration of prosthetics and digital equipment with the human body, growth of replacement
organs and other human enhancements will increase the ability of soldiers to act on the battlefield
with greater resilience, speed, reaction and endurance. Recruitment process and parameters
might evolve as capabilities can be adapted and tailored for individuals. What happens with the
enhancements when the soldiers retire from the military forces?

3.3.2 Cognitive & Umwelt Sensing

One of the easiest things to take for granted are the senses we use on a daily basis to interpret the
surroundings we live in. Brain mapping technologies and new understandings in neuro cognition
have opened vast new fields in breaking the human experience out past the natural physical
limitations into new realms of discovery and experience. Allowing for new ways to, directly,
integrate information into, and control external devices with, the brain.
Trends
• Human Sense Hacking
• Biologically Extended Senses
• NeuroProsthetics
• Brain Computer Interface
• Nootropics
• Brain Mapping
• Ocular Resampling
• EEG Brain Recording
• TransCranial Direct Stimulation
Applications
Cognitive Modeling, Brain Interaction, Extension of Senses, Extension of Control, New Methods
for Experiencing ’new realities’.
Military Relevance
Cognition enhancers that increase the performance for the human brain, such as improving short-
term memory, increasing speed of thought and reducing fear, will become available. The ability to
read someone’s mind could prove very useful in many aspects of training and operations as well as
for a better interaction between the different team/squad members.
 38 Chapter 3. Technology Foresight

3.3.3 Biotechnology
The Biotechnology cluster is home to technologies that seek to alter genetic structures, either to
improve or harm an organism. Advances in computing resources and algorithm design lead to
applications in immunology for increased resistance as well as biological weapons and genetic
therapies capable of rewriting DNA in an existing organism.

Trends
• Genome Editing
• Scientific Invention of Ideas by A.I.
• Full Genome Mapping
• Supercharged Photosynthesis
• Internet of DNA
• Synthetic Biology
• Liquid Biopsy
• Transgenic Organisms
• Prenatal DNA Sequencing
Applications
Interspecies transgenics, Immunology, Gene Therapy, Designer Genes

Military Relevance
For the military, knowledge of specific human genetic defects or vulnerabilities, and of ways to
create such defects take on added concern simultaneously to the ability to modify microorganisms
or toxins that would increase pathogenicity. Biotechnology theoretically provides opportunities for
adversaries to modify existing organisms with specific characteristics, such as increased virulence,
infectivity or stability. There is the hidden scope to target individuals or specific group of people
sharing similar genetic characteristics.
Modern advances also allow for the inexpensive production of large quantities of replicating
microorganisms for weaponization through recombinant methodologies, and the possibility to
create new agents for future warfare that bypass current preventive or therapeutic interventions.
Naturally occurring infectious agents could be used to generate epidemics among susceptible troops.
This could lead to confusing disease situations on the battlefield as environmental detectors may not
necessarily be able to differentiate between natural and man-generated contamination. Biological
agents can escape detection and can be used to aim for specific genetic targets.

3.3.4 Medical Health

The study and application of Medical Science in order to diagnose, treat or prevent adverse
conditions, diseases and injuries. Many new areas and advancements currently in development have
made leaps forward in treating some of the most tenacious and devastating ailments known to man.

Trends
• 3D organ printing
• Medical Nanobots
• Brain Organoids
• Personalized Medicine
• Extrauterine Fetal Incubation
• Robotic surgery
• Genetic Therapy
Applications
Vaccines, surgical procedures, epidemiology, diagnostics

Military Relevance
In the area of bio-defence, advances in technologies will allow for more directed and coordinated
approaches in the development of vaccines against biological warfare agents and endemic diseases.
In parallel, the creation of new biological agents will be made possible. The development of
combination vaccines, eliminating the need for multiple vaccinations, is of practical importance for
the military.
 3.3 Life Sciences 39

3.3.5 Networked
Networks can be viewed as a means for individual systems to communicate and function as a
collaborative whole. As the efficiency and speed of networks increases, so do the ways, quality and
depth in which information passes along them. Diagnostics that were only accessible after medical
consultation are now reliably possible on the field.
Trends
• Internet of healthy things
• AI Doctor
• Telehealth
• Crowdsourced medicine
• Universal Medical Repository
Applications
Crowd Sourcing, Universal Medical Knowledge Repository, AI Doctors
Military Relevance
Medical diagnostics can be performed on the field and assessments of situations can be challenged
or validated by the wisdom of people having experienced similar situations.
Remote systems coupled with robotic surgery could be used to provide care to wounded soldiers
directly in the field, increasing the likelihood that this the treatment would be delivered within the
golden hour without exposing medical personnel to increased danger.

3.3.6 Sensors
The use of sensors to monitor infantry health while in the field can allow for improved strategic
decision making and targeted medical response to realtime situations. Sensors may also serve to
detect infection; allowing for rapid containment and minimization of effects of harmful agents.
Monitoring blood chemistry levels of infantry allows insight into many performance dependant
factors, like stress and energy levels.
Trends
• Auditory • Ingestible Sensors
• BioMetrics • Labs-On-Chips
• Cosmetic Stickers • Molecular Sensor
Applications
Unit Health, Cardiovascular, Motion, Chemical, Neuro / Hormone, Biological Agent Detection,
Discovery & Research, Troop & Resource Monitoring
Military Relevance
The use of sensors to monitor soldier health while in the field can allow for improved strategic
decision making and targeted medical response to realtime situations. Sensors may also serve to
detect infection; allowing for rapid containment and minimization of effects of harmful agents.
Monitoring blood chemistry levels of infantry allows insight into many performance dependent
factors, like stress and energy levels.
Biometrics technologies allowing identifications or people will be particularly important in military
operations in highly populated areas to have a mechanism to catalog and track information about
residents. This will also be the future of friend-foe identification.

3.3.7 Social
Social analytics allow for the widespread analysis and influence of population sentiments. Un-
derstanding emotional consensus of a group opens the door to not only accurate identification of
emotional perspectives surrounding topics, but also the ability to steer the perceptions and opinions
of a population in order to, for example, create or quell unrest.
40 Chapter 3. Technology Foresight

Trends
• Brain-to-Brain Interface
• Personalized Predictive Analytics
• Emotion Hacking
• Predictive crime prevention
• Human-Robots Relationship
• Propaganda Advancement
• NeuroInfluencer
Applications
Propaganda, advertising, sentiment manipulation, perception monitoring, target tracking.
Military Relevance
Anticipating and/or suggesting intentions and motions of the adversary is an obvious advantage
for the actor mastering it. Having predictive models implemented in robots may facilitate the
interaction not only between machines and militaries, but also between machines and civilians.
 3.4 Nanotechnology and Material Science 41

3.4 Nanotechnology and Material Science

Fabrication of structures at the nano scale will enable manufacturing of lighter, stronger, more reli-
able, lower cost, higher performance and more flexible electronic, magnetic, optical and mechanical
devices.

3.4.1 Base Compound

Ongoing research in compounds has led to interesting discoveries in molecular synthetics with
properties that exceed any conventional and traditional ’structures’ by far. As there are more and
more fields of research and new-comers to the fields, expect that the influx and cross connections
of ideas will spur chaos, in turn revealing previously unknown potential properties.

Trends

• 3D Printed Materials • Carbyne

• Aerogel • Graphene
• Carbon Nanotube • Metamaterials & Dynamic Camouflage

Applications
Computing, Infrastructure & Construction, Armor, Biology, Weapons, Chemistry,

Military Relevance
Compound construction using molecular building blocks provides enhanced property attributes like
strength, weight, and conductivity; compared to existing methodologies, superiority in adoption
should be expected.
While conceptual technologies may be around for quite some time, even decades, before they
converge with other notions for an accelerating effect on operational friction reduction, we could
call them Dormant Multipliers, an example of this is JIT, Just-In-Time, manufacturing with the
emerging diffusion of distributed, compact, additive manufacturing. The observed direction with
this field indicates fewer requirements to maintain inventories of spare parts; as, only a stock of
material and a 3D design to print on demand are necessary [Pao+15].
At the same time, this also includes the potential opportunities and threats of sharing the designs of
weapons including, for example, items such as triggers or fuses for Improvised Explosives Devices
(IEDs) or even the actual IEDs themselves.

3.4.2 Biological
Nano & micro scale applications of technology are integrating bio-compatibility; allowing for
highly specific and targeted uses. This ranges from new methods for fighting viruses by passing
through the Blood Brain Barrier, protein based molecular machines, to bacteria resistant surfaces.
Threats and opportunities could arise overnight.

Trends

• Antimicrobial Nanocoatings
• Nanotechnology Cosmetics
• Nanobiotechnology
• Vector Control
• Nano Food
Applications
Viral, Health Recovery & Maintenance, Strength & Endurance Conditioning, Immunoresistance,
Defect Reversal
 42 Chapter 3. Technology Foresight

Military Relevance
Applications range from the utilization of inherent, natural, properties of nucleic acids to create
and manipulate larger scaled structures; to synthetic nano-agents directed to specific tasks, like
tumor removal; nanotechnology in the biological field has many applications. Despite its benefits,
it has also important threats. For example, improvements of the human immune system which
make it more resistant to viruses; if this is implemented as a threat, it could be manipulated to lower
an organism’s resistance to pathogens. The generation of taste and odorless substances created
with specificity for a desired lethal, or nonlethal, effect that can be transmitted by ambient contact
absorption, or inhalation.
Other uses can be seen in protective creams against heat, sun, mosquitoes or used as agent detectors
in specific circumstances.

3.4.3 Construct
This cluster contains Nanotechnology focused on building at the particulate scale. Assembly and
construction technologies from widespread 3D printing, molecular self-assembly and protein chain
alteration to the use of passive and inherent energy properties for macro-scale construction, as well
as dynamic infrastructural support.

Trends
• 4D Printing
• Nano-Architecture
• Controlled self-assembly
• Nanofactories
• Microscale 3D Printing
Applications
Computing, Self-Assembly, Shape & Property Change, Construction, Manufacturing, Infrastructure

Military Relevance
Methods and technologies for construction applications have a broad scope; from micro and
nano scale replications, to self-assembly, and fourth dimension manufacturing. The ability for
manifesting greater controls in respect to real world creation of conceptualized structures have
strong potential impacts for a large, unknown, number of different fields and applications. This
includes the ability to construct tube structures which would be able to change morphology to
aid the transmission of fluids, by calculated expansion and contraction, over long distances; also,
increased manufacturing precision advances self-healing properties currently seen with thermo-
reactive metals and kinetic absorption.
This cluster’s advancements show promise and feasibility in construction of, seemingly, science
fiction creations. These enablers will give birth to new products or to new generations of products
which continue to accelerate the, ever changing, landscape of humanity’s horizons.

3.4.4 Devices
New methods and materials are giving rise to micro-scale architectures, which are capable of
creating vast improvements to systems of measurement, in packages a fraction of the size of their
predecessors.

Trends
• Cathodes Fabricated from Nanomaterials • Nanoelectronics
• Nano ElectroMechanical Systems • NanoGenerator
Applications
Biological and Chemical Agent Detection, Information Supply, Data Processing
 3.4 Nanotechnology and Material Science 43

Military Relevance
The ever increasing capacity for compact design and miniaturization from engineering method-
ologies and material innovation leads to the ability of comprehensive portable devices. Allowing
systems to move from the laboratory onto the field; or even in the pockets of the individuals in
deployed units; reducing the time, cost, and associated risk of sample analysis, broadening the
spectrum of battlefield situational awareness.
Imagine a chemical spectrography lab which can be carried in a pocket and synced to a super
computer, with its data displayed on a wristwatch; alerting to pathogens in the area.

3.4.5 Materials
Creating properties never before seen in nature, as well as the restructuring of existing materials,
are among the most exciting prospects in this cluster. Subtopics from metamaterials with optical
plasmonic properties to foam metals, are paving the way for lightspeed computing, subatomic
microscopes, self assembling structures with increased durability and light weight hull designs.
Trends
• Nanocomposite Plastics
• Auxetic Materials
• Nanoengineered Copper
• Biomaterials
• Nanophase Titanium Alloys
• Invisibility Cloaks
• Nanotechnology Solar Cells
• Morphing Materials
• Negative Index Material
• Nano Glass
• Self-healing Materials
• Nano Textiles
• Superomniphobic Materials
Applications
Structural Design of Vehicles and Buildings, Thermal Resistance, Photo-optics, Radio Communica-
tions
Military Relevance
More complex combinations of Base Compounds yield opportunities for new nanomaterials to be
fabricated with complex properties. Foam metal alloys show promise for incredible strength and
thermo diffusion coupled at a nominal fraction of the normal weight; and, nanoengineered antennas
for increased RF capacities, help to exemplify the diverse fields of applications.
New smart materials will also allow the self-adaptation of the equipment and of the systems to their
environment and to the specificity of the battlefield (day, night, warm, cold, color, etc.). This will
give birth to new stealth strategy.

3.4.6 Reactive
Reactive Nanotechnology provides new ways of thinking about how objects interact with the
environment. Thermal, chemical, and other contextual reactive properties can be programmed as
composites in deeper layers of substances.
Trends
• Colloid Camouflage • Nanomaterial-Based Photocatalyst
• Designer Carbon • Nanoremediation and Water Treatment
• Green Concrete • Smart & Interactive Textiles
• Nano Catalysts • Thermo-Bimetals
Applications
Armor & Weapons, Environmental Context Adaptations, Thermal, Photo-reactive, Chemical
Sensing, Synthesis
44 Chapter 3. Technology Foresight

Military Relevance
The ability to create and produce materials with specific and desired properties such as mutations in
color, appearance, and strength when exposed to different temperatures, changes in humidity, and
photon reactivity lead to novel applications in many fields. The use of reactive nanotechnology has
applications in thermite disbursement in heavily armored bunkers; delivered in layered composites
to a target’s interior. Once this warhead penetrates the last barrier, the alternate reaction releases the
nano thermites as a dust into the atmosphere. This stimulus triggers a combustive explosion, which
lethality can be increased by magnitudes of 500% compared to non stimulated ones.
 3.5 Systems 45

3.5 Systems
The combination of the advancements in technologies in the different previous fields allow im-
provements and birth of various systems having an impact in military operations.

3.5.1 Flight
For the last century the sky has been an expansive playground of imagination and opportunity;
NGAD, Next Generation Air Dominance, is still on everyone’s mind. From SCRAMJets to UAV’s
and communications logistics. There is increasing amounts of interest in the field as a whole from
commercial capitalization to hobbyist experimenters.
Trends
• Electric Airplanes Recharged by Drones • Pocket Drone
• High Altitude Platforms • ReLaunchable Above Atmosphere Trans-
• Hover Bike portation
• Long Distance UAV • SCRAMJet
Applications
Transportation, Weapons, Logistics
Military Relevance
The growing reliance on space-borne systems for communications, navigation, intelligence and
weather observation could create critical vulnerabilities if these systems were lost. Backwards
compatibility to pre-GPS generational equipment, including back-up systems for precise munitions,
and retaining core skills in this area will facilitate future regeneration. Alternative use to space, like
stratosphere, are being investigated for cost and operational opportunities.
Operating remotely from the air, instead of sending troops on the grounds, might be a strategy for
the first phases of future operations.

3.5.2 Logistics
Complicated activities coordinated with consumption requirements as well as delivery modes can
be looked at as flow management and ability between any given types of nodes. Logistical systems
are the infrastructure which keep everything moving and supported.
Trends
• Autonomous Vehicles • Smart Structures
• Deliverbots • Intelligent autonomous swarms
• Modular Hardware • Telepresence Robots
• Payload Drones • UAV Supply Delivery
• Robotic Mule • Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communication
Applications
Support, Maintenance, Delivery, Infrastructure
Military Relevance
Logistics convoys will be using autonomous or remotely piloted vehicles to reduce human casualties
and have precise delivery of goods where and when required.
Modularity and exchangeability of hardware parts will facilitate interactions between the different
actors within a coalition while simultaneously augmenting the life-time of the systems themselves.
Anticipation and auto-organization of the maintenance of the different assets in the field. Pre-
positioning of assets which remain in a silent-state until its content or function is required. Once
activated, they could autonomously navigate to the requested place of operation.
Pack mules will also reduce the equipment burden on individual soldiers.
 46 Chapter 3. Technology Foresight

3.5.3 Robotics
From fully autonomous surgical aides to responsive personal assistants, the Precision Robotics field
is advancing through improvements in algorithimic software and sensory equipment that allows for
high dexterity, contextually adaptive, robots; able to carry out routine tasks.

Trends
• Advanced Navigation Systems
• Personal Robotics
• Agile Robots
• Robonauts
• BioRobotics
• Service Robots
• Insect Drones
• Soft Robotics
• Minibuilders
Applications
Manufacturing, Assistance, Maintenance, Routine Tasks

Military Relevance
Robots are particularly well suited for surveillance function as they do not get tired and lose
concentration.
Robotic systems have the attractive feature that they can be stored indefinitely until they are needed,
thus reducing their overall operations, maintenance and other lifecycle costs. This might however
not be proven. Deployment times could be significantly reduced as robotic systems could be pre-
positioned in various depots around the globe until they are activated and given a mission. Robots
aim to be cheaper to manufacture than manned systems and leveraging the growing commercial
investment in robots, future opportunities could include consumable robotic systems that are cheap
and disposable.
Used within the Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) community, robots allow to detect, identify,
access and mitigate hazards from explosives. Autonomous systems might also be engage primarily
to secure sensitive infrastructures in areas where the presence of a human would be already suspect
per se [Boi15].
Integrating semi-autonomous or fully autonomous system on the battlefield rises however a lot
of unknowns as technology is advancing faster than the development of associated policy, legal
and ethical considerations. As all possible environments in which autonomous robots could be
employed and all possible circumstances in which these robots may find themselves could never be
modeled in a laboratory or developed into computer code, developing autonomous systems will not
be a simple programming problem. The software programs to support these types of systems will
be extremely complex and lead to unforeseen emergent behaviors. This is part of what is termed a
first generation problem where one will not know what type of mistakes autonomous systems could
commit until they have already committed them.
It would not be difficult to imagine many paradoxical situations where robots would come up
against contradictory information where even humans would have difficulty making an appropriate
decision.
In operations, robotic systems will be unaffected by emotions, adrenaline and stress, and thus less
susceptible to conditions that may have driven human soldiers to over or under-react. So there may
be more motivation to develop these types of systems. Lastly, the human-robotic interface and team
dynamics will have to be carefully examined. How will human soldiers react to monitoring by
robotic systems?

3.5.4 Weapons
Anti-matter devices, self guided munitions and electromagnetic rail guns are the tip of the spear
when it comes to next generation weapons systems. As advancements in these fields continue, so
3.5 Systems 47

must the ways we find to defend against them. The Weapons cluster is among the most diverse, as
well as hypothetical, with many of the developing categories shockingly futuristic.
Trends
• Explosive Reactive Armor
• Antimatter Weapon • High-altitude Electromagnetic Pulse
• Automatic Target Recognition • Hypersonic Missiles
• Directed Energy Weapon • Modular Armor
• Electrolaser • NanoEnergetics
• Electromagnetic Rail Gun • Self-guided bullets
• Electrothermal-chemical Technology • Sonic Weapons & Long-range Acoustic De-
vices
Applications
War, Immobilization, Demoralization, Intimidation
Military Relevance
Precision guided munitions will help to perform selective attack with proportionate and adaptable
hard-kill effect, while at the same time increasing the lethality and flexibility of use. Increase in
speed and changes in the actuators might also make obsolete most of the anti-missile strategies and
systems.
Non-Lethal Weapons have two principal roles: anti-personnel (crowd control, incapacitating
individuals, area denial, clearing of facilities) and anti-material or infrastructure (area denial,
disabling or neutralizing vehicles, vessels aircraft of equipment and electromagnetic devices).
 4. Conclusion

The present document highlighted what we pretend to be today the main technological trends that
will shape the future of warfare in the coming years. However, the permanent evolution of warfare
together with the high development rate of the various civilian and dual-use technologies makes
a prediction almost obsolete at the date of its publication. The work of technology foresight is
therefore continuous and the different trends presented here will be regularly updated as well as
completed by new trends rising over time.

The increasing developments taking place at the border and the intersection and convergences
of various technology areas create new opportunities but at the same time rise the awareness on
potential security implications of these emerging technologies.
The selected approach starts with the basic sciences and related technologies and projects them into
the future to see what synergies and occur and which new capabilities will be possible. At the same
time we access the list of future needs for the military capabilities and provide the basis to infer
from each what technologies and underlying basic scientific advances would be required.

With accelerating speed of development, we must be aware not only of growing gap between
technology and law, but also between technology and ethics. We do not often benefit from the
necessary step back to assess the real opportunities or hidden threats of a technology and this
element might reserve some unexpected surprise.

By connecting the various technology trends to the Swiss armed forces capabilities as well as
to the Swiss industry, we believe that this contribution will provide some new information and
indicators to stimulate discussions and decisions for the benefit of national security.

Illustration: Green plant sprouting from the asphalt of the street

II
Part Two

5 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Collection of the information
5.3 Platform of Information
5.4 Readiness
5.5 Dissemination of the Information
5.6 DEFTECH Platform

6 Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
6.1 3D memory chips
6.2 Augmented Reality
6.3 Bio authentification
6.4 Biologically extended senses
6.5 Bionic Implants
6.6 Brain to Brain Technologies
6.7 Computer vision
6.8 Context-aware computing
6.9 Emotion Tracking
6.10 Holographic technologies
6.11 Hypersonic technology
6.12 Immersive multi-user VR
6.13 Intelligent autonomous swarms
6.14 Internet of things
6.15 Labs on chips
6.16 Laser communication / free space opticals
6.17 Machine learning
6.18 Medical nanobots
6.19 MEMS
6.20 Nanobiotechnology
6.21 Nanoelectronics
6.22 Nanomaterials
6.23 Photovoltaic transparent glass
6.24 Portable Power
6.25 Predictive crime prevention
6.26 Quantum computing
6.27 Self-healing materials
6.28 Smart dust sensors
6.29 Smart materials
6.30 Stealth technologies & Dynamic camouflage
6.31 Synthetic Biology
6.32 Telepresence
6.33 Wearable computing

Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
Articles
Reports
Online

Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
 5. Methodology

5.1 Introduction
Performing technology foresight at 360 ◦ is an intensive and continuous challenge. Fortunately,
several military and civilian international organisations are pursuing the same goal. Rather than
re-inventing the wheel, we are taking advantage of the different reports to support this research and
provide the description of some technologies as well as their maturity. This offers us the opportunity
to focus mainly on the organisation of the information, on the importance of the technologies for
the military and for the Swiss context in particular.
Technology foresight needs to remain as broad as possible in order to avoid any technology
surprise (see Figure 5.1).
The methodology applied to survey the numerous technologies places the scalability at the
centre of its challenge as this one should survive major variability in budget and human resources.
A graphical representation is displayed in Figure 5.2.
The main steps of the process can be summarized into
1. The collection of the information
2. The storage, classification and representation of the information
3. The transmission & dissemination of the information

5.2 Collection of the information

The collection of the information first goal is to have an overview at 360 ◦ of all technologies
that can have an impact on warfare. This task is performed by involving different private and
governmental entities, which are in charge of detecting the early trends and weak signals in the
academy & research community (publications), the industry (patents) and the society (products).
To overcome any bias in perception, an effort has been made to get information from entities
geographically spread around the world (Figure 5.3) as well as some kind ofcrowd sourcing brain
power.

Illustration: Detail of a visualisation realized by Envisioning Ltd

54 Chapter 5. Methodology

Figure 5.1: From technology foresight to the concrete use of the technology within military project.
At the beginning, an inventory of all technologies is necessary to determine their potential use in
military applications.

The output is a list of technologies containing structured information that will serve as basis for
future deeper investigation according to the needs and interests. As an example, the collection of
the information is performed by the company Envisioning Ltd observing the following procedure:

1. Overview
(a) Scoping
i. Analysis of existing public resources
ii. Futures studies
iii. Books
iv. Articles
v. Patents
(b) Identify experts
i. Academics
ii. Engineers
iii. Journalists / authors
iv. Founders
v. Users
2. Experts (Primary research)
(a) Conduct in-depth interviews with experts in the field
(b) Identify key technologies used today
(c) Derive / interpret key technologies being researched in the field
(d) Develop timeline of possibilities
3. Immersion (Secondary research)
(a) Look outside boundaries of current research
(b) Analyse industry / sector for emerging technology initiatives
(c) Map and tag technology news (Wired, Engadget, Techcrunch)
(d) Map crowdfunding initiatives (Kickstarter, startup events)
(e) Map and tag public disclosures of private research & development initiatives
4. Analysis
 5.3 Platform of Information 55

Figure 5.2: Representation of the adopted process for the technology forsesigh, from the monitoring
of weak signals to the diffusion of the information and resulting actions.

(a) Identify unique technologies

(b) Describe technologies
(c) Clustering (identify connectivity for macro & micro technologies)
(d) Readiness
(e) Impact
This is of course an on-going activity, which can be performed externally or internally according to
the time pressure and the level of information required. In order to ease the comprehension as well
as the search through the different documents, the information is structured as much as possible, as
input first, as well as in the resulting documents (see chapter 6).

5.3 Platform of Information

To support and assist in the interpretation of the information, it is necessary to have a platform,
which main purpose is to
 56 Chapter 5. Methodology

Figure 5.3: Distribution of the Swissnex network around the world - www.swissnex.org

1. Store and index the information for an optimal search including semantic analysis.
2. Enable a comprehensive visualisation of the information (relationships, indicators, etc.).
3. Generate outputs for diffusion and support for further actions.
One of the main important added value provided by the platform is also the possibility to
connect the technologies with other environments. The link between the technologies and the
capacities of the armed forces is possible thanks to the use of a common taxonomy. By discovering
which technologies affect which capacities, the importance and relevance of each of them are
directly visualisable. Priorities as well as scenarios can be built based on these different correlations.
To close the loop, as presented in Figure 5.4, the same taxonomy is also used to classify the national
companies with strategical military relevance in the diverse industries (STIB - Sicherheitsrelevante
Technologie- und Industriebasis der Schweiz). Given this common language, we are therefore able
to answer to strategic questions like:
1. Which technology affects which military capability and is there a Swiss based company
active in this field, Figure 5.5?
2. Which present and future military key technologies are not being covered by the national
industry?
3. In which technologies will I have to build competences if the capability X is becoming of
major importance?

5.4 Readiness
Rather than debating for the most disruptive technology in an area, we have reversed the question.
We sequentially consider all the new interesting developments and try to understand how and under
which conditions these technologies are emerging, evolutionary, revolutionary or disruptive in a
military and civilian environment. The definition of the used terminology is presented here [Toc14].

• Emerging Technology is a technology which is not yet commonly perceived in the De-
fence and Security community and which has the potential to turn out to be evolutionary,
revolutionary or disruptive.
• Evolutionary Technology is an incrementally developed technology that gradually improves
its role in a component, a sub-system or a system without a significant impact on a system
5.4 Readiness 57

Figure 5.4: Thanks to a common taxonomy, it is possible to build the relationship between the
technologies, the industry and the (Swiss) armed forces capabilities.

role.
• Revolutionary Technology is a technology that dramatically improves a given role in a
component, a sub-system or a system. It increases the technology development cycle rapidly
compared to related technologies and/or fills a role in a new market.
• Disruptive Technology represents a technological development which has the realistic
potential for a qualitative or a very significant quantitative change in non-technical capabilities
and thus can cause a qualitative or a very significant quantitative change in the relationships
between states, people or persons and markets. It has its disruptive effect on the society within
one or two generations and thus has the potential to overstrain the adaptability of human
beings and the social system. A technological development which changes the conduct of
conflict or the rules of engagement significantly within one or two generations and forces the
planning process to adapt and to change the long- term goals, strategies, concepts and plans.
However, rather to decide if one technology belongs to one class or the other without explana-
tion, we believe that a technology profile describes much better its potential as well as the risks
it might face. This new methodology for profiling technologies is called Readiness and is being
developed and validated together with Envisioning Ltd [Za].
58 Chapter 5. Methodology

Figure 5.5: Concept of representation of the impact of a technology on the different Swiss armed
forces capabilities.

Readiness is a mathematical model which aims to assess the readiness of emerging technolo-
gies and measure how close an idea is to reality. By determining common vectors of evolution,
technologies can be compared. Readiness models an imaginary line between science fiction and
science fact. It believes that technologies readiness can be assessed following the two main lines:
Can it be done? and Is it important?

Each technology is assessed by answering the following 10 questions, to which a point score
from 1 to 5 is given. The final score is calculated as the harmonic mean of the individual point
scores. The final score indicates the overall readiness divided into the thresholds: concept, prototype
and product.

Can it be done? Is it important?

• Feasibility • Explainability
Is the technology scientifically viable? Do people understand it?
• Demonstrability • Usefulness
Has it been demonstrated to work? Do people use it?
• Breakthrough • Necessity
Measurably better than preceding technolo- Do people need it?
gies? • Competition
• Investment Do people compete to develop it?
How far along the investment cycle is it? • Challenge
• Cost Has it proven to address humanity’s grand
How are development costs behaving? challenges?
5.4 Readiness 59

Figure 5.6: Computation of the harmonic mean as Readiness indicator. The computation is done as
example for the delivery drone.

Figure 5.7: Representation of the readiness indicator both as radar profile and numeric value for the
delivery drone.
 60 Chapter 5. Methodology

5.5 Dissemination of the Information

An important step of the work is of course the dissemination of the information. This could be
done by simply providing an access to the platform and letting the interested users draw their own
conclusions. This approach appears a little bit too passive, and we decided to engage in more push
activities.

1. DEFTECH Workshops:
Serie of 1 day workshops during the year on specific technological topics presenting a future
potential relevance for the Swiss armed forces.

2. Technology Overview:
Structured information available for each technology and standardised on two A4 layout.

3. DEFTECH Meetings:
Discovery and brainstorming activities on different topics with technology cards and imagi-
nation!

5.6 DEFTECH Platform

The visualization tool, as presented in Figure 5.8, and the DEFTECH technology platform are both
accessible on the Internet at the following addresses.

• http://visualization.deftech.ch

• http://platform.deftech.ch

• http://vision2015.deftech.ch/
A0 format printable poster; also available here in the correct resolution.

Please contact the author to get the necessary credentials.

5.6 DEFTECH Platform 61

Figure 5.8: Printscreen of the DEFTECH visualization application which shows for each technology
its readiness indicator, and materializes, among other parameters, the relationships between the
different technologies.
 Nano hno og S m
En g T S n & Ma a
Efficiency Communications Biomechanical Engineering Base Compound Flight
The capacity for being fast and efficient can mean success or failure in the field. Bottlenecks in communicative infrastructures can cause catastrophic failures. The technologies in this cluster center around the synthesis of mechanical Ongoing research in compounds has lead to interesting discoveries in molecular For the last century the sky has been an expansive playground of imagination
With more resources requiring electricity to operate escalating demands should be Data is growing exponentially; and, it must be transmitted between multitudes engineering and knowledge of biological function, with the intent to yield an synthetics with properties that far exceed any conventional and traditional and opportunity; NGAD, Next Generation Air Dominance, is still on everyone's
quelled. Acquiring energy, transmitting energy, and effective use of energy gives an of new devices. There are several methods being explored and built to handle increase in efficiency in the areas where the two overlap. From the increasing 'structures'. As there become more and more nodes of research and new-comers mind. From SCRAMJets to UAV's and communications logistics. There is increasing
edge in deployed assets for their ability to remain self-sufficient and reduce the new loads. efficacy of prosthetics and exoskeletal wearables, to tools, vehicles and weapons to the fields; expect that the influx and cross connections of ideas will spur chaos, amounts of interest in the field as a whole from commercial capitalization to
expenditures on unnecessary losses. that are easier and more efficient to operate, Biomechanical Engineering is making in turn revealing previously unknown potential properties. hobbyist experimenters.
DEEP WEB Hidden internet through private IP addresses and private sharing its way int
E-MILI Energy-Minimizing Idle Listening in Wireless Networks: Reduces the internal networking frameworks; Also Dark Internet networks, which are not accessible via CARBON NANOTUBE Molecular-scale tubes of graphitic carbon, they are among LONG DISTANCE UAV Unmanned Aerial Vehicles used for long distance monitoring
wireless chip while Wi-Fi isn't in use, resulting in energy savings of about 44%. the internet as we know it. In the future this will be of great concern due to the stiffest and strongest fibres known. and reconnaissance with increased endurance.
E-MiLi is compatible with 92 percent of mobile devices; but, wireless routers need advances in encryption / hacking and decryption. Having a separate 'internet'
special firmware. would allow for greater security CARBYNE Is a super-material with twice the tensile strength of its predecessor POCKET DRONE Small, fitting easily into the palm of a hand or a pouch pocket.
graphene, and three times the tensile stiffness of diamond. Is a fundamentally simple drone: it’s a camera that flies, useful for the military
ENERGY INTELLIGENT BUILDINGS Energy intelligent buildings contextually adjusting SOFTWARE-DEFINED RADIO Software Define Radio (SDR) components historically as a sneaky scout. The pilot uses a one-handed controller and watches video from
DEFTECH VISION 2015 based on environmental and user activity.

PHOTONIC ENERGY GENERATION Efforts are being made to produce more efficient
have used hardware to adjust frequencies and audio tuning; are now being replaced
by less expensive and more adaptable software in digitally embedded systems.
3D MATERIALS From powders, CLIP liquids, PLA, and multitudes of other choices;
the options for 3D printing even include Carbon Fiber & Kevlar.
a chest-mounted screen.

RELAUNCHABLE ABOVE ATMOSPHERE TRANSPORTATION Relaunchable commercial

solar power. One in particular would use a design that efficiently splits sunlight, 5G MOBILE NETWORK Fifth-generation wireless internet connectivity impacts mobile AEROGEL A synthetic porous ultralight material derived from a gel, in which the space flight systems being pioneered by SpaceX and other competitors.
m w m m as a prism does, into six to eight component wavelengths—each one of which devices and most likely the first implimentations will be in dense urban liquid component of the gel has been replaced with a gas. Potential applications
produces a different color of light. Each color would then be dispersed to a cell populations. Providing the ability to stream a minimum of 1GB/s to multiples of include improved thermal insulation, chemical absorber for cleaning up spills, SCRAMJET Chemical reaction engine with no moving parts, using high pressure
made of a semiconductor that can absorb it. close devices. Pervasive networks providing ubiquitous computing. The user can electrochemical supercapacitors and shock absorption. airflow for creation of hypersonic propulsion.
w m m simultaneously be connected to several wireless access technologies and
FAST CHARGING BATTERIES As battery reliant technology inducts the new generation seamlessly move between them. GRAPHENE Is the modern go-to material for engineers looking to create all manner HIGH ALTITUDE PLATFORMS A quasi-stationary aircraft that provides means
m m m m m of Integrated Circuits & Power Management IC [PMIC], required by Quick Charge 2.0; of new electronic devices. From ultra-frugal light bulbs, to super-efficient solar cells, of delivering a service to a large area while staying thousands of feet above
devices will charge 75% faster. CLOUD COMMUNICATIONS Internet-based voice and data communications flexible displays and much more, graphene is a multitasking marvel. in the air for years.
where telecommunications applications, switching and storage are hosted by New techniques are also creating 3D objects out of graphene that opens up
m m m m m FLEXIBLE SOLAR A flexible solar panel built into the back of the vest converts a third-party outside of the organization using them, and they are accessed over the possibility of fashioning a whole new range of innovative electronic devices ELECTRIC AIRPLANES RECHARGED BY DRONES Drones serving as flying batteries could
sunlight to electricity with 30 percent efficiency—a 22 percent improvement over the public Internet. dock with an electric plane in flight, enabling the first transcontinental electric
the stationary panels now in use by the military. In addition to charging devices, METAMATERIALS Materials with a precise shape, geometry and arrangement which airplane journey
W it can transfer electricity from a fully powered device to a dead one and it contains AERIAL WIRELESS NETWORK Uses drones or a balloon-based designed to partially can affect light and sound in unconventional manners. Potential applications iclude
a membrane water-filtration system solve the problem of limited internet access across the globe. smart solar power management, public safety, improving ultrasonic sensors, HOVER BIKE Crowd funded then military contracted four blade personel
and even shielding structures from earthquakes. transport vehicle.
LASER COMMUNICATIONS Free Space Optical (FSO) communications transmit high
amounts of data that is hard to detect; it may be used for UAV's and weapons
Management systems to create independent networks; and, is a potential alternative to
Currently energy infrastructure is experiencing vulnerability due to it's highly traditional radio frequencies. Interest in the technology is also growing in the Biological Logistics
localized and outdated methodologies. The systems are vulnerable to cyber-pene- private sector, which may bring down costs for end users. Nano & micro scale applications of technology are integrating bio-compatibility; Complicated activities coordinated with consumption requirements as well as
tration attacks; and, system fluctuations. As the global demands rise for energy, allowing for highly specific and targeted uses. This ranges from new methods for delivery modes can be looked at as flow management and ability between any
so does the need for dynamic and effective energy management solutions. fighting viruses by passing through the Blood Brain Barrier, protein based given types of nodes. Logistical systems are the moving infrastructure which keep
molecular machines, to bacteria resistant surfaces. Threats and opportunities everything moving and supported; arguably one of the most crucial components
SMALL MODULAR NUCLEAR REACTORS Smaller, factory produced units designed Computation could arise overnight. of any system.
to provide electricity in areas that are isolated or may have smaller electric grids, Computational abilities are affected by several underlying technologies and

Sonic Weapo
or where water and space are limited. SMR energy production can range innovations; and, is one of the largest sectors in the market. The implications ANTIMICROBIAL NANOCOATINGS The use of Nanotechnology to create uninhabitable MODULAR HARDWARE Platforms designed with common interfacing standards that
up to 300MW and have relatively low capital costs per unit. for breakthroughs can mean drastic shifts in short amounts of time. Moore's surfaces, or lethal environments for microbes has many applications for health. allow hardware to be developed and assembled in modules. Much like software and
API interfaces. This allows for customized incremental expansion units, and the

High-a

Electr
Law continues to be relevant.
SMART GRID Electrical meters that record consumption of electric energy in real time NANOPHASE TITANIUM ALLOYS Reduction in bacteria and microbial growths ability to replace existing features and equipment on a given product (weapon, bot,
while communicating the information back to the utility for monitoring and billing SPECKLED COMPUTING Nano scaled computing and sensor technologies allow for metal use in the medical field, as well as optical property uses. drone, satellite).

ctors

ltitude
ration

otherm
purposes. Can be used for remote load-balancing such as disabling non-essential for milimeter cubed sized wirelessly connected sensor device deployments.

ns & Long-range
ries
NANO FOOD Engineered particles are already disbursed on food in the form

ion
devices at peak usage. SMART STRUCTURES Structures which are designed to react to environmental

Explos

Auto
ar Rea
ging

Electr
3D HOLOGRAPHIC DATA STORAGE Laser light controlled three dimensional storage of coatings to preserve the integrity of food and it's color. Nanosilver preserve context as well as usage patterns; moderating energy use, and even shape for

al-che
Electro
ent Buildings
wer
gine

nerat

Direc
food from fungi and microbes, and other engineering feats replicate flavor

mat
SUPERGRIDS High Voltage DC circuit breakers would allow DC grids which could optimized efficiencies.

om
allow for massive parallel processing of data and is extremely portable; currently

Hyperso
ork
Char

Nucle
r Po
and textures of food.

ive Rea
be far more efficient and make it possible to link widely dispersed wind and

Self-guided
n En

mical
at 1.35 Terabits/inch^2; promising, four gigabits in a cubic milimeter.

Energy Gene

ic Ta
ging Batte
er

Modular

An
magne

agne
NanoEner
AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES Vehicles capable of sensing their environment and

less

ment
solar farms.

ted En
rg
wer Ge

Solar
Netw

Adva
atio

Sola

tic
dular
NANOTECHNOLOGY CAMOUFLAGE The ability to change or modify our appearance

et
navigating on their own.

tim
rust
3D MEMORY CHIP In microelectronics, a “three dimensional integrated circuit” (3D IC)

erg
on

nic Miss
Acoustic Device
Wire

Techn

y
for one reason or another has many applications for society from sexual partner

tic Ra
Mo
and
DISTRIBUTED POWER GENERATION Generates electricity from many small energy

nced
ergy

Electr
Pul
is an integrated circuit manufactured by stacking silicon wafers and/or dies and

atte
Det

ty Th
ster

Reco
selection to espionage; it also has health aspects relating to radiation protection DELIVERBOTS Robot vehicle meant to carry cargo, not people. Could range from

Inse
Energy
sources instead of large centralized facilities. Centralized power plants offer

nge

rgrids

Efficiency
interconnecting them vertically using through-silicon vias (TSVs) so that they

ola
1 E-MiLi
vi

ind
se

art Gri

s 202
2 Energy Intellig

Nav
bullets 201
3 Photonic

ct
ology
getics 200
4 Fast Char

Weap
and monitoring. very small (and light) robots the size of a suitcase to full-sized trucks ready to haul

il Gun
5 Flexible

Armor 199
economies of scale, but waste power during transmission, and are inefficient

art En
Ca
behave as a single device to achieve performance improvements at reduced power

trib

iles 198
ion
Thru
Pul

Manage

se 197

Dr
es
ls

igat
or 196
6 Small
heavy cargo.

ng-ra
in rapidly adapting to grid needs.

art W
and smaller footprint than conventional two dimensional processes. ~ Wikipedia

7 Sm

ctive Arm 195

on
ser 19
ect

194
8 Supe
fue

pon
hicl

So
ion
and

on 19

ea
9 Dis

3
Sm

2
10 Sm uted Po

n 19
puls
Ve
Bio

Sy
l Eff
us
VEHICLE-TO-VEHICLE COMMUNICATION Let's vehicles send information back and forth

Per
11 Lo

1
SMART ENERGY NETWORK A combination of smart grid technologies incorporating MEMRISTOR A variable resistance memory chip; which builds mechanical pathways

gnitio 190
12
Re

R
uo
s

ice
between one another with enabled infrastructure; for example, traffic lights.

tric

r Wea es 189
il

Hal
new energy systems, precision power management to individuals, energy storage,

ics

o
pon
based upon the amount of current which has traversed a particular circuit. When

bo
Pro
rie

RF

ro
s
ra

Sa
and information on operating efficiencies of specific units on a distributed network. Knowing when a light was going to change would allow vehicles to give a little

M
13
powered back on, nothing has changed.

al R
Construct

Elec sonant
es

tte

Serv bon
s

ne

188
14
lar

obot s 18
heads-up to their drivers. We'd then know to brake gradually; or, if there was time,

C
eri

Ag
Being pushed by the Energy Systems Transformation Initiative (ESTI).

rt

Ba tion
This cluster contains Nanotechnology focused on building at the particulate scale.

au
esi

7
15
ge

So

ile
ts
po

te

oti
a display might show what speed would be necessary to make it through.

BioR stem 186

16
QUANTUM COMPUTING Quantum computing relies upon the superposition state Assembly and construction technologies from widespread 3D printing, molecular

nth

Te
n

ra

ild
ns

VS
cs
tics 185
17 ontin
l

Ro

Sw
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Ve
Sta
LONG-RANGE WIRELESS CHARGING Lab's prototypes inductively charges devices with of a qubit, which is a system which can hold multiple levels of states; atomic spin self-assembly and protein chain alteration to the use of passive and inherent energy

ft Ro bots 184
Tra

up
el

18

hic
PAYLOAD DRONES Relatively cheap drones with advanced sensors and imaging

lid d-ge
S
&

arm
90% efficiency to 30mm away from the power source via magnetic waves. The

Sto

3
and quantum dots are examples. Creating highly dense and complex computing

son inibu bots

le
properties for macro-scale construction, as well as dynamic infrastructural support.

lo

So
ge
capabilities are giving farmers new ways to increase yields and reduce crop

18

82
e

-to
current technology works like a wireless router. With microwave technologies some

bo

nc
mechanisms, with units holding multiple I/O positions at once in relation to

18
ate tosy

-V
e

pa
e

ob ers 1 1
19 eco
eri

liv
damage. Close monitoring of crops could improve water use and pest management.

ic
crafts have stayed aloft for months as Canada's Communications Research Center

eh
each other. MICROSCALE 3D PRINTING 3D printing that uses multiple materials to create objects

R
tic
att s

20

ic
s
B

Pa
Ca ob
showed with 21Km tests. It detects devices connecting to it and then provides the

le
s
such as biological tissue with blood vessels.

ir

2 Bio
ROBOTIC MULE Rough-terrain robot designed to go anywhere Marines and Soldiers

-a
rie tora

Co
signal. This could be used in the future to give more resilience to drones and

0
22 Zinc gica

m
s

tte y S
Au
to go on foot, helping carry their load

m
D
23 Artif Poly Batt

Ro ery 18 79
ell s other devices. 4D PRINTING The manufacture of end-use products using additive manufacturing

g
Ba erg ry
IDEA n

De bots 17

ylo un
no

1 8
24 Air a ial
m De io r C tem techniques and materials that are able to change and mutate over time when

ble En

ad ica
UA prese ble c M es
IoT SWARM CAPABLE DRONES Group of drones lead by algorithms that allow them

ra en
liv

ti
ply Ro nes 177
25 Prin nd W Pho
Sm ou at Sola Sys SMART WIND AND SOLAR POWER Big data and artificial intelligence are producing exposed to water, temperature changes and/or air to self assemble.

a
s erb

e
a Combining sensor technology with increased efficiencies is allowing for an to perform actions as a swarm unity. This will allow for better coordination and

Dro ule 176

26 Lith ted
Mo s

W dro
ultra-accurate forecasts that will make it feasible to integrate much more renewable

oti ron on 1
Ele rm ased nergy on
du rt Str Veh ots explosion of new information available for monitoring and interacting with. possibility of maneuvers -- Algorithm Led Unmanned Vehicle Collaborative Swarm

75
27 Hy ium Batt r Fu
ctr u icle 1 cti energy into the grid. CONTROLLED SELF-ASSEMBLY Machines that manipulate individual atoms with
ic lar sfo e-b E
it d a From infrastructural and machine parts, to innumerable real world contexts
Air Ha ctu
re
s 1 74 Re organism-like self-replicating abilities. These bottom-up, atomically precise 3D Activity with Disparate Units.
ReL pla rd 7 an vsk Win ar ss like pedestrian flow to anything you might be holding right now.
au ne Tr Pero orne cle Gla printers would be able to carefully create sequences of DNA, RNA or protein.
nch sR Lo ware s 172 3 b e Nu ic TELEPRESENCE ROBOTS A remote-controlled, wheeled device with a display
e 28 Air ag lta SMART DUST a collection of microelectromechanical systems forming a simple
ab Hig cha Ho
gis 171 rgy vo VECTOR CONTROL Electrostatic delivery of lethal, to mosquito, nanoparticles. to enable video chat and videoconferencing, among other purposes.
le A
bo hA rg ve tic 29 Sew Ene er oto Propulsion computer in a container light enough to remain suspended in air, used mainly
ve ltit ed b r s Moving assets from one location to another is a vital component in any operation;
Atm ud y D Bike CONCEPT 30 Low Pow nt Ph
l for information gathering in environments that are hostile to life. ~ Google NANO-ARCHITECTURE Materials whose structures can be precisely tailored so they UAV SUPPLY DELIVERY Autonomous delivery of emergency aid; defibrillator equipped
osp eP ro 31 Tida are er whether it's for surveilence & reconnessance or for deploying. Advancements in drone, and other equipment.
latf nes 170 sp ow rs are strong yet flexible and extremely light. Lighter structural materials would be
her o 1 32 Tran cP cto other energy areas can lead to jumps here.Technologies in this sector should always UBIQUITOUS COMPUTING Also known as pervasive computing is the idea that
e Tr SC 69 n more energy-efficient and versatile.
an RA rms
M 33 usio lectri r Rea s be watched closely. computing can take place with any device at any place any time. It is not
sp 16
8 F e ea ow
ort Jet 34 zo cl constrained by the object type. This is accomplished through embedded NANOFACTORIES A proposed system in which nanomachines would combine reactive
ati 1 Pie Nu ind
Lon Pock
et on 67 35 ro el W HALL EFFECT THRUSTER HET space propulsion technology uses a magnetism and processors; and, is referenced as the opposite of Virtual Reality, whereas instead molecules via mechanosynthesis to build larger, atomically precise parts. These,
gD 16 Mic Robotics
ista Dron 6 Pan propellants to create an ion thruster; in use since 1971, efficiencies have climbed real world interaction is 'virtualized'. in turn, would be assembled by positioning mechanisms of increasing size From fully autonomous surgical aides to responsive personal assistants.
nce e 36 olar
UAV 165 S to as high as 75% to build macroscopic (human-scale) products that remain atomically precise. The Precision Robotics field is advancing through improvements in algorithimic
37 WIFI FOR THINGS Regular mobile networks are jammed with traffic from phone calls
16 software and sensory equipment that allows for high dexterity, contextually
F 4 RF RESONANT CAVITY THRUSTER Radio Frequency RF Resonant Cavity Thruster and people downloading videos. But for the Internet of things to become a reality,
PROTOTYPE adaptive, robots; able to carry out routine tasks.
appears to defy the laws of physics by breaking physical conservation of similar capabilities will need to be extended to billions of objects with a wireless
ligh
t slow lane for small, low-power devices.
momentum laws. Preliminary tests have been conducted on the EM Drive design AGILE ROBOTS Computer scientists have created machines that have the balance
by multiple institutions.
Sys
Devices and agility to walk and run across rough and uneven terrain, making them far more
AMBIENT BACKSCATTER A, no battery, wireless communication using backscattered
useful in navigating human environments.
tem
radio frequencies; able to transmit indefinitely, by accepting or rejecting New methods and materials are giving rise to micro-scale architectures, which are
s s ELECTRIC VEHICLES On the minds of inventors and industry for over a century;
IT frequencies, with power from ambient energy. capable of creating vast improvements to systems of measurement, in packages
tion combinations of technological innovations are now making this a reality. a fraction of the size of their predecessors. Imagine a chemical spectrography lab MINIBUILDERS Robotic swarm that is able to construct buildings of any size,
ica with high level of efficiency.
mun BIG DATA Extremely large data sets that may be analyzed computationally to reveal which can be carried in a pocket and synced to a super computer, with its data
CONTINUOUS AND PULSE DETONATION ENGINES A subsonic to hypersonic propulsion
Radio patterns, trends, and associations, especially relating to human behavior displayed on a wristwatch.
system which combusts using detonation waves; with a theoretical thermodynamic PERSONAL ROBOTICS Robotic technology products purchased by individual buyers
Nano Com ep Web
PRODUCT ned and interactions.
Catal 38 De -Defi efficiency greater than turbojets. or families and used to educate, entertain, or assist in the home.
Gree ysts ftware CATHODES FABRICATED FROM NANOMATERIALS Nano structured cathodes
n Co 163 twork
ncret 39 So e Ne ns have shown higher theoretical capacities compared to conventional cathodes
Therm e 16 Mobil icatio SOLAR SAIL Photon sails, coined as Solar Sails, use radiation pressure from stars ROBONAUTS Robonauts, human-like robots designed by GM and NASA, had helped
Smart o-Bim 2 40 5G mmun by 25% or more.
Nanor & Intera etals ud Co rk to propel thin mirrors to high rates of speed through space. before with basic duties at the International Space Station (ISS). Advanced models
emedi ctive 161 41 Clo Netwo
ation Textile eless Cyber Security NANO ELECTROMECHANICAL SYSTEMS Devices integrating electrical and mechanical of these robots (R2) are able to execute more complex activities, including climbing
Nanom and Wa s 160 ial Wir ations Cybersecurity protocols must be implimented by hand, and diagnosed with teams; and mobile tasks. Future plans consider even more advanced support, especially
aterial ter Tre
atment 42 Aer munic functionality on the nanoscale. NEMS typically integrate transistor-like nanoelectro-
-Based 159 Las er Com giant leaps are being made in algorithmic modeling in several applicable areas from nics with mechanical actuators, pumps, or motors, and may thereby form physical, in challenging missions like explorations of other planets.
Photoc 43 genomics to auto-deploy machine learning attack and defense systems.
atalyst
158 Storage biological, and chemical sensors.
Designe tion SERVICE ROBOTS Robots doing human-scale tasks, having sense and manipulate
r Carbon Energy storage and transport has had very little innovation for quite some time; AUTHENTICATION & BIOAUTHENTICATION PROTOCOLS Relies heavily on BioMetric in complex ways.
Colloid 157 NANOELECTRONIC DEVICES These devices are designed on the molecular level taking
Camoufl Computa puting this opportunity has been recognized by large commercial players as well as technologies; as well as other identification methods for secured access. Current
age 156 d Com into account atomic interactions at very close proximities; and, has dynamic
44 Speckle Storage research institutes. Renewed interest has spurred innovation and incentives for types of Biometric Authentication technologies include: iris & finger scanning, SOFT ROBOTICS Researchers are developing a robotic fabric that moves and
graphic Data transforming the sector; with recent developments showing large promise for materials dependencies while creating non-traditional circuit systems.
Reactive 45 3D Holo vein ID, facial & voice recognition. Additions to this ecosystem can be expected contracts and is embedded with sensors, an approach that could bring 'active
ry Chip noticable increases in performance. for authorized access protocols. clothing' and a new class of 'soft' robots.
46 3D Memo NANOGENERATOR Converts mechanical/thermal energy as produced
Superomniph
obic Materials SECOND-GENERATION BIOFUELS New biofuel technologies, such as cellulosic ethanol by small-scale physical change into electricity.
155 47 Memristor CYBER HARDENING Ensuring of continual ability to operate and run IT infrastructure; ADVANCED NAVIGATION SYSTEMS The Precision Inertial Navigation Systems (PINS)
Auxetic Material ing and biodiesel from microalgae, promise to produce conventional fuel-compatible through, the use of system security configurations, and proactive software and program seeks to use ultra-cold atom interferometers as an alternative to GPS
s 154 48 Quantum Comput energy at low or zero greenhouse gas emissions. firmware updates to stay ahead of possible exploits. updates. This allows for the development of matter wave interferometry techniques
Negative Index Material
153 to measure forces acting on matter, including high-precision atomic accelerometers
SOLID STATE BATTERIES Research into solid state electrolytes indicates that
Nanotechnology Solar Cells 152 IoT MACHINE VISION Face and object recognition with limited view and any angle. and gyroscopes. Using this technology, this program seeks to develop an inertial
significant performance increase can be had over current liquid electrolyte use. Currently high functioning image recogntion is creating sentential descriptions.
Materials navigation system, which would have greater independence from satellite
Self-healing Materials 151 49 Smart Dust Creating properties never before seen in nature, as well as the restructuring of
navigation systems susceptible to attacks and interference. Radio's and other
BIOLOGICAL BATTERIES Energy storage devices which are grown from a genetic base; existing materials, are among the most exciting prospects in this cluster. Subtopics
Nanoengineered Copper 150 50 Ubiquitous Computing RISK ANALYSIS & DECISION MAKING Risk sensitive decsion making algorithms have coordination techniques may be used as well.
and, house energy in biocompatible materials. ever growing supplies of information to make supplemental decision suggestions; from metamaterials with optical plasmonic properties to foam metals, are paving
Nanocomposite Plastics 149 51 WiFi for Things the way for lightspeed computing, subatomic microscopes, self assembling
as well as the evolution of machine learning integrating new components BIOROBOTICS Robots that look and act like animals, insects and other living beings.
ZINC POLY Containing more energy density than lithium and flexible in nature, Zinc structures with increased durability and light weight hull designs.
Nano Textiles 148 52 Ambient Backscatter automatically for weighted analysis. Fields such as Game Theory are relevant. They replicate existing patterns in nature (movement, stealthiness, flight motion,
Poly™ creates the ability for more hidden and streamlined energy integration into
53 Big Data shell structure, joints, etc…) built this way to enhance performance on determined
Nano Glass 147 wearable devices through the use of solid state electrolytes. SELF-HEALING NETWORKS Networks capable of reconfiguring themselves and BIOMATERIALS Derived either from nature or synthesized in the laboratory,
tasks or even to mimetize within the environment.
s 146 repairing damage from various possible causes. biomaterials can be used to enhance or replace natural functions in the body.
Morphing Material ARTIFICIAL PHOTOSYNTHESIS A renewable, carbon-positive creation of resources,
145 Cyber Security which uses bacteria combined with electronics to capture CO2, producing INVISIBILITY CLOAKS A material system which creates an optical illusion
Invisibility Cloaks DEEP LEARNING An AI trend that aims to more closely mimic the way the
ls 144 54 Authenticat hydrogen, acetate; and fundamental building blocks of chemical & carbon brain works by creating neural networks. It's using everything from speech showing what is on the other side with enough clarity to effectively hide an
Biomateria ion & BioAu materials, like carbohydrates. This sets it apart from the other popular renewable object in plain sight. Weapons
55 Cyber thenticatio recognition and language translation to computer vision to create smarter
Hardenin
g
n Protocols energy sources, which produce electricity directly, with no fuel intermediate. Anti-matter devices, self guided munitions and electromagnetic rail guns are the tip
Materials 56 Mac devices and softwares.
hine Visio MORPHING MATERIALS Materials that change shape and return to their initial form. of the spear when it comes to next generation weapons systems. As advancements
n AIR AND WATER FUEL With the use of clear energy to extract Hydrogen from H2O, Morphing materials might be metals or polymers that have a 'memory'; in these feilds continue, so must the ways we find to defend against them. The
143 57 Risk INFRASTRUCTURE SECURITY Energy plant & network vulnerabilities of
nerator Analysis Hydrogen is then mixed with Carbon Dioxide to create an alternative gas fuel. interconnected structures. or are covered with a 'skin' that will instigate a shape change. Weapons cluster is among the most diverse, as well as hypothetical, with many
NanoGe 58 Sel & Decisio
ices 142 f-healin n Making of the developing categories shockingly futuristic.
ic Dev 59 Dee g Networ PRINTED BATTERIES Flexible, ultra thin, rechargeable batteries that can be printed NANO GLASS Coatings to composition; nanotechnology is providing hydrophoobic
ectron s 141 ks
Nanoel System
p learnin cheaply on commonly used industrial screen printers. The batteries can deliver and repellent static functionality; as well we increased optical performances. INSECT DRONES The robotic insect can effortlessly infiltrate urban areas, where
nical 0 60 Inf g
Mecha ials 14 rastru enough current for low-power devices, reducing their weight. Interfaces dense concentrations of buildings and people, along with unpredictable winds
Electro mater cture
NANO TEXTILES Nano textiles are providing anti-microbial and
Nano Nano Securi
ty Interfaces increase the speed and effective manipulation of digital tools for more and other obstacles make it impractical.
ted from ces In LITHIUM-AIR BATTERY Advances in materials technology is enabling the advance hydrophobic features.
rica Devi depth of control. Creating a connection with a person through a captured medium,
of high energy Li-air batteries which promise an energy density that rivals gasoline,
terfac
des Fab es ANTIMATTER WEAPON An antimatter weapon is a hypothetical device using
Catho 139
61 Ge creating new real spaces and interlaying new information through the senses.
offering a five-fold increase compared to traditional Li-Ion batteries. By using NANOCOMPOSITE PLASTICS Nanocomposite plastics and polymers have multiple antimatter as a power source, a propellant, or an explosive for a weapon.
ries sture
facto 8 62 Me Base atmospheric oxygen instead of an internal oxidizer, these batteries could applications from faster biodegradation to increased flame retardancy, and higher Antimatter weapons are not thought to currently exist due to the cost of production
Nano re 13 tave d Int GESTURE BASED INTERACTIONS Intuitive interaction styles speed input and
ite ctu 7 rse eracti dramatically extend electric vehicle range. structural performances. and the limited technology available to produce and contain antimatter in sufficient
l 13 PRODUCT 63 W
ea ons understandings between man and machine. This integrates a non-verbal form
-Arch ntro quantities for it to be a useful weapon.
Nano 6 64 Bi rable of communication naturally used during speech for higher level functions.
or Co bly 13 ofee Com HYDROGEN ENERGY STORAGE & TRANSPORT Hypothetical evolution of existing power NANOENGINEERED COPPER Ultraconductive materials with thermal management to
Vect sem 65 putin
grids, transporting and storing hydrogen instead of electricity. Could be used in dissapate heat at a higher rate.
135 Anno dback g METAVERSE Merges digital reality with the real world, able to generate images AUTOMATIC TARGET RECOGNITION An algorithmic conclusion of recognition about
se lf-as ting 66 Clot combination with various kinds of energy transformation methods, minimizing loss
d Prin 134
tate
d-re hing indistinguishable from real objects and then being able to place those images a specific object or target based upon data inputs from various sensors.
rolle 4D ting 67
Imm
er al and maximizing storage capacity. SELF-HEALING MATERIALS A class of smart materials that have the structurally
Cont seamlessly into the real world. Sum of all realities, real, virtual, augmented,
Prin ct Augm sive Sp ity Glas incorporated ability to repair damage caused by mechanical usage over time. DIRECTED ENERGY WEAPON High Power Microwave (HPM) and DEW's emit highly
3D 68 atia ses and internet.
ale stru Virt ente
l In WEARABLE BATTERIES Lightweight wired garments that enable the wearer to charge The inspiration comes from biological systems, which have the ability to heal after focused energy, transferring that energy to a target to damage it. Potential
M ic rosc
C o n 3 ual d Re terfa gadgets and store energy. being wounded. A material (polymers, ceramics, etc.) that can intrinsically correct applications of this technology include anti-personnel weapon systems, potential
13 Real ality ces WEARABLE COMPUTING Wearable devices as interfaces and data point collection.
flage 132
Sim ity Eyew damage caused by normal usage could lower production costs of a number of missile defense system, and the disabling of lightly armored vehicles such as cars,
ou PROTOTYPE Acce are
BIOFEEDBACK CLOTHING Clothes that respond to needs such as improvement of different industrial processes through longer part lifetime, reduction of inefficiency drones, jet skis, and electronic devices such as mobile phones.
am od 31
69 ula ssor
yC o Fo ys 1 0 70
Ho
lo tio ies trodden dynamics and posture control by adapting or providing alerts to the user, over time caused by degradation, as well as prevent costs incurred by
olog N an material failure. ELECTROLASER An electrolaser is a type of electroshock weapon which is also
hn Allo 13 Virt room ns Transformation through electrical or mechanical stimulus.
otec ium tings
71 u a directed-energy weapon (DEW). It uses lasers to form an electrically conductive
Nan itan a l Bio al Rea The energy transformation ecosystem is growing into a more diversified pool of
eT co ica fee ANNOTATED-REALITY GLASSES Like Google Glass, these technologies add a layer NANOTECHNOLOGY SOLAR CELLS Efficiency improvements in solar technology through laser-induced plasma channel (LIPC).
no db lity H technological advancements; leading to innovative applications, as well as allowing
has Na log 9 So ack ea of information on top of reality without replacing the underlying objects. innovative uses of nanotechnology.
op ial c d for new technologies to rise in environments, where, previously not possible.
Nan icrob 72 ia Vid set Not to be confused with Augmented Reality, which is able to simulate virtual ELECTROMAGNETIC RAIL GUN A railgun is an electrically powered electromagnetic
Bio rials 12 28 eo NEGATIVE INDEX MATERIAL Negative phase velocity & Negative Refraction; perfect
tim Ga PEROVSKITE-BASED SOLAR CELLS Adding perovskite crystalline to silicon photovoltai- objects for the user. projectile launcher. Railguns are being researched as a weapon with a projectile
A n a te ne 1 27
e
73 Bioh l Cr
lense & optical communications. Negative permeability and negative permittability.
tam ph l1 6 74 Emp ackin ow
me
cs allow light capture in different spectrums. It is a low-cost thin-film photovoltaic that would use neither explosives nor propellant, but rather rely on electromagnetic
Me Gra roge 12 Qu a g d IMMERSIVE SPATIAL INTERFACES When the simulated interface creates a feeling forces to achieve a very high kinetic energy. Railguns can potentially exceed Mach
CONCEPT an thic device with high energy efficiency and flexibility. Perovskite is a crystalline AUXETIC MATERIALS When stretched, auxetic materials become thicker perpendicular
Ae rials 125 M tifi T additive layered in conjunction with traditional photovoltaics; the efficiency has in the user that what they are experiencing is real, from looks to touch. It is one 10, and thus far exceed conventionally delivered munitions in range and destructive
te e 24 ed hing to the applied force. This occurs due to their hinge-like structures, which flex when force, with the absence of explosives to store and handle as an additional
Ma rbyn e 1 75 on s skyrocketed 20%+ in a few years compared to silicons 0.6% increase in 15 years of the highest levels of immersion.
d Se
lf stretched. Auxetics may be useful in applications such as body armor, packing advantage. This technology could also be used to launch satellites and probes
3D Ca tub 76 Seq ito from 25 to 25.6% efficiency. It works by capturing light in a different spectrum material, knee and elbow pads, robust shock absorbing material, and sponge mops.
no un Vid ue rin when combined with silicon. AUGMENTED REALITY EYEWARE Augmenting reality through eyeware can create into space. Also known as: Hypervelocity Projectile.
Na po eo nti instant fictions overlayed onto real world physical constructs; contributing to the

78
on & all g SUPEROMNIPHOBIC MATERIALS Inspired by water bugs that float on liquid surfaces,
ability to deliver information as well as manifest fictions. ELECTROTHERMAL-CHEMICAL TECHNOLOGY Electrothermal-chemical (ETC) technology

vir
rb Im y T AIRBORNE WIND ENERGY SYSTEMS Using on board & off-board generators on

ls
om im these materials repel both oily and watery fluids.

77 Mic
Ca C ag kite sail, wing, and turbine designs; inventors are capturing energy in high is an attempt to increase accuracy and muzzle energy of future tank, artillery, and

En roe

ia
e R ed
VIRTUAL REALITY ACCESSORIES Now that VR headsets are starting to make their close-in weapon system guns by improving the predictability and rate of expansion

le
se A

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ec altitude jetstreams.

on ctr
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appearance, the need for accessories and peripherals is greater than ever. of propellants inside the barrel. An electrothermal-chemical gun uses a plasma

o
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IDEA nit
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SEWAGE Yaniv Scherson created a system which captures ammonia and converts it They allow users to feel by walking, smelling, touching, etc the simulation. cartridge to ignite and control the ammunition's propellant, using electrical energy

en mec
pin

1
al
n

h
g

22
Ma to nitrous oxide; generating power through combustion of the processed sewage. Reactive to trigger the process. Also known as: Precision Ignition.

cs
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ap anic
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Reactive Nanotechnology provides new ways of thinking about how objects interact

12
in

al

k
EXPLOSIVE REACTIVE ARMOR Explosive Reactive Armour (ERA) is an add-on armour

n
ip
LOW ENERGY NUCLEAR REACTIONS Cold Fusion (LENR) is still being investigated by with the environment. Thermal, chemical, and other contextual reactive properties

Sy
gP

A
s

ac
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ho to push away & destroy incoming missile projectiles. Designed to offer additional

te

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a community of researchers working diligently on projects here; and, the number can be programmed as composites in deeper layers of substances. High mechanical

y&
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7
Simulations

P
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gra of patents, internationally, is increasing, showing higher levels of interest and strength, energy, and density allow for structure penetrating thermites to disperse protection to tanks against shaped charge warheads of modern anti tank guided

l
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Understanding the human form to greater degrees allows for faster information

ti
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missiles. It is a sandwich of explosive and metal plates. When the jet of a shaped

79 ulse
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plausible functionality. This process can fuse Nickel & Hydrogen into Coppper. as a 'dust' once inside their target, igniting from alternate stimulus; increasing

Re
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delivery and uptake by individuals; resulting in better training and conditioning

cer
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charge warhead hits ERA panel, explosive in it detonates. As a result, the plates are

dP
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lethality by magnitudes of 500%.

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programs taking less time with more effective results through the use of feedback

van terfa
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TIDAL POWER Turbines or other hydro-kinetic energy harvesting technologies accelerated and start moving outward in normal direction. The moving plates and

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simulations and new haptic technologies.

2
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capturing energy from fluid oceanic tidal movements. COLLOID CAMOUFLAGE Photo-Thermal Camouflage; a material that is reactive the detonators render the jet ineffective which loses its penetration capability.

an its

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to the thermal transfer of photons.

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HOLOROOM New breed of augmented reality devices help customers to imagine

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88 Br
HIGH-ALTITUDE ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE A nuclear warhead detonated at or above

ot
TRANSPARENT PHOTOVOLTAIC GLASS Glass which allows for visible light spectrum

Brai

Hu
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uroP

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home improvements using 3D simulations, providing an intuitive and immersive

od

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Chip

Biom nsor
Sens s 114
DESIGNER CARBON Material that can be adjusted to make energy storage devices, 100,000 feet creates electromagnetic radiation from the nuclear explosion. At this

108
to shine through and captures energy from wavelengths which don't obstruct

90 Hu
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Bio Powered ximetry sthetics

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experience. Hologram spaces can be modified at any time, giving customers the

Pro rain-t
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solar panels, and potentially carbon capture systems more powerful altitude the nuclear blast is non-lethal, by itself; however, this would be capable

Stick
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our vision.

85 Ne ropics

91 Ful
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opportunity of designing and making choices on the fly. In the military, this could be

tory
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92 Liqu
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and efficient. It matters since energy storage breakthroughs are needed for of disrupting, damaging, or destroying ANY solid-state electronic system within

93 Pren

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used to simulate environments, recreate missions and training scenarios with more

Skin
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FUSION Projected to be the size of a semi-truck trailer by 2025, by Lockheed Martin.

Labs
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electric vehicles, renewables on the grid, and other clean-tech advances. its line-of-sight, including satellites.

Audi le Sens s 115

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accuracy than existing methods.

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Compact nuclear fusion would produce far less waste than coal-powered plants

89 Bra n Sense

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96 Synthetic
95 Superchar
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since it would use deuterium-tritium fuel, which can generate nearly 10 million NANOMATERIAL-BASED PHOTOCATALYST Photo reactive based materials have HYPERSONIC MISSILES HGV, Hypersonic Glide Vehicle, designed to travel five times

Medicine 104
lt S

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97 Transgenic
VIRTUAL REALITY HEADSET High-quality virtual-reality hardware that is cheap enough

atal DNA

(Healt
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times more energy than the same amount of fossil fuels. In the future, generators applications in many areas and are useful for controlling chemical state change the speed of sound. Also called skip-glide, and boost-glide; these vehicles travel

Data Ann
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for the consumer market. Visually immersive interfaces will lead to new forms of

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will be smaller and much more powerful. on demand. in the upper atmosphere with great range and speed with unique aerodynamic

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entertainment and communications. Combined with accessories and technologies

et
Biology

Genetic Therapy
properties as well as propulsion methods. The initial 1941 concept, called the

dical
Brain Organoids 101
Biotec ome Mapping
such as eye-tracking and haptic gloves are creating an even more immersive

Sequen
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ged Photo

3D Organ Printing 100

PIEZOELECTRIC POWER Electricity resulting from pressure or mechanical stress. NANOREMEDIATION AND WATER TREATMENT Already acknowledged as being

Medical Health
Silbervogel, is more relevant than ever before.

Crowd
experience.

Organisms

Intern
used in 44 worldwide cleanups; nanoparticles must come into contact with

Personalized
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for Me
tion of Idea
MICRO NUCLEAR REACTORS A small, sealed version of a nuclear reactor the contaminants for a decontamination reaction to occur. Widely used in MODULAR ARMOR New polyethylene ballistic fibers—which could form soft, supple
BIOFEEDBACK VIDEO GAME Biofeedback & haptic feedback technologies provide
(approximately a few tens of meters in length) capable of being shipped water treatment. vests that are nonetheless 20 to 30 times stronger than steel—and fine-tuning

synthesis

work
instant iterative loops for decreasing skill learning times.

Extrauterine Fetal Incubation

or flown to a site.

s by AI
ceramic armor at the nanoscale to make complementary hard protection. The Army

me
SMART & INTERACTIVE TEXTILES These fibrous structures 'are capable of sensing, is also making armor more modular, so soldiers can tailor it to individual missions.

Fra
SOLAR PANEL WINDOWS Researchers at Los Alamos National Laboratory and the actuating, generating & storing power, and communicating.' Clothing based Resulting in armor which can easily be reconfigured.
University of Milano-Bicocca synthesised a new generation of quantum dots that ineractive interfaces which are also able to collect data, and be running largely

ified
they were able to embed in a transparent polymer to capture the sun's energy. Social Crowd self-sufficiently. NANOENERGETICS Nanoparticles have more surface area and, therefore, have

Un
Gathering information has always been subject to a certain cost and availability. increased contact with the other chemicals that make up a propellant or explosive.
Individuals abilities to connect and coordinate with large groups revolutionizes how THERMO-BIMETALS Thermally activated bimetals would allow for panes of glass After a reaction is initiated (that is, the explosion is set off), this greater surface area
quickly ideologies can be spread and actions instigated. The ability to monitor capable of becoming shades when exposed to the sun, self-regulating energy causes a faster reaction rate, which makes for a more powerful explosion. This work
social sentiments has never been so expansive or so inexpensive; and, neither has consumption throughout the day. could be useful in weapons systems that would utilize greater amounts of energy,
the ability to manipulate emotions and perspectives. making them more lethal.
GREEN CONCRETE Cement which acts like a sponge, and stores carbon dioxide.
BIOHACKING A techno-progressive cultural and intellectual movement which SELF-GUIDED BULLETS Use tiny sensors and fins to change direction mid flight.
advocates for open access to genetic information and defends the potential of truly NANO CATALYSTS Increasing efficiency and control of chemical reactions
democratic technological development. Biohacking can also refer to managing to change the state of another substance while maintaining no permanent SONIC WEAPONS & LONG-RANGE ACOUSTIC DEVICES Long Range Acoustic Devices
one's own biology using a combination of medical, nutritional and electronic change itself. Nanotechnology extends these capacities with far greater (LRAD) use sound and acoustic radio frequencies to cause discomfort, injure,
techniques. This may include the use of nootropics and/or cybernetic devices precision and durability. incapacitate, and even kill the subject of it's focus.
for recording biometric data & enhancing performance.

EMPATHIC THINGS Devices of all kinds, shapes and sizes – around, on or inside the
body – that behave increasingly smarter and link up more and more intuitively with
mankind’s extremely personal and natural interface.

QUANTIFIED SELF Movement to incorporate technology into data acquisition on daily

life in terms of inputs (e.g. food consumed), states (e.g. mood), and performance
(mental and physical). With the coming changes in the amount and diversity of
datasets, data-centric approaches that compute on massive amounts of data to
discover patterns and to make clinically relevant predictions would be increasingly
common in translational bioinformatics.

Monitoring
From the hunting plains of the desert thousands of years ago to, the ability to scan
uncountable numbers of images digitally, and search through semantic contexts,
modern day monitoring systems have transformed from our basic abilities to see
and notice things with very large scale acquisition through innumerable means.
Surveilance and monitoring provides invaluable information to strategic decisions.

SEQUENTIALLY TIMED ALL-OPTICAL MAPPING PHOTOGRAPHY CAMERA ‘Motion picture

femtophotography’—is all-optical mapping of the target's time-varying spatial
profile onto a burst stream of sequentially timed photographs with spatial and
temporal dispersion. (STAMP)

VIDEO & IMAGE RECOGNITION Computer Neural Nets and Learning Algorithms are
currently able to create accurate sentential representations of images as well
as match features of very large data repositories.

ENVIRONMENT MAPPING Drone Mapping creating High-Definition, High-Resolution 3D

imagery with spectrographic details; able to give insights down to identifying and
assessing the health of a specific leaf.

MICROELECTROMECHANICAL SYSTEMS MEMS A device between one to one-hundred

micrometres in size; consisting of a processor and components for sensing and
interacting with the environment. Related to NEMS; challenges involve unique
physics operations at small scale. Requires advancements in materials, design,
and production.
 6. Technologies

The profiles of the technologies composing this chapter are exported automatically from the
DEFTECH platform. The layout and the structured information must allow a global understanding
of the theme as well as a vision of its use in civilian and military contexts.
When new information becomes available, the profiles are completed such that the information is
kept up to date and available on demand.
As the number of technologies can grow significantly, we conduct research in generating content
automatically starting from the name of the technology only. Considering various sources of
information, structured and not, this Big Data and Artificial Intelligence challenges offer practice in
areas that will for sure become disruptive at some point in time.

Figure 6.1: Example of the analysis that can be performed by cross referencing the difference technologies.
This will help distinguishing which technologies can be combined the most and therefore could provide
some indication about potential for disruption.
Illustration: Detail of the 1000-piece CMYK Color Gamut Jigsaw Puzzle by Clemens Habicht
 25.08.2015

3D Memory Chips

Summary Until recently, computer chips were largely 2D structures, created by a sequence
of 2D patterns applied on top of each other through lithography. To keep up with
Semiconductor
consumer demand for faster, smaller, more power efficient chips, the
Fabrication semiconductor industry has been defined by a race to develop chips with smaller
Memory feature sizes. As feature sizes in memory rapidly shrink, quantum effects become
Silicon more pronounced. Users demand increased memory storage in smaller sizes, but
as shrinking the size of components becomes less viable, memory manufacturers
developed a new approach: stacking NAND memory cells vertically, rather than
horizontally, to effectively fit more cells within a given two dimensional area.
AMD’s flagship Fiji line of graphical processors uses a technology they call high
bandwidth memory that stacks entire memory dies (pieces of silicon) on top of
each other, rather than fabricating a new memory layer on the same die. Intel has
also adopted some 3D space saving measures for its microprocessors for some
time now by effectively twisting transistors on their side in what it calls “Tri-gate
transistors”. In all these cases, moving from 2D to 3D structures improves
performance, power consumption, and capacity.
Weaknesses 3D memory chips do not have any substantial downsides, however they require
semiconductor fabs to retool, and in some cases (such as for High Bandwidth
Memory), the processes and complexity result in slightly lower yields (more chips
rejected).
Related fields Wearable Computing, Nanoelectronics, Internet of Things, Augmented Reality,
MEMS, Computer Vision, Virtual reality, Semiconductors, Labs on a Chip.
Civil Uses Civil computing systems for business and domestic applications. Essentially, any
platform that requires data storage, especially systems that already use flash
memory, will benefit.
Trends & Like every other development in the semiconductor industry, the primary focus of
Challenges 3D memory is to further reduce the size, power consumption, and cost of the
components while simultaneously improving performance. Manufacturers are no
Yield doubt focusing on stacking more memory modules and fabricating the modules
Power consumption smaller than currently possible at reasonable yield rates. Principal challenges lie in
the development of nanoscale fabrication techniques and in dissipating the large
volumes of heat that will be generated in such systems.
General The technology, although relatively new, is already in use in many commercially
 valuation available products today. 3D memory technology will likely continue to see use
until manufacturers reach the material limits of silicon substrates, and begin to
Commercial explore more exotic materials and novel systems. Depending on the new material
used, 3D memory techniques may be applied even after the switch from silicon to
save space and improve performance. There are currently no near-
commercialization technologies competing against 3D memory, however there are
different techniques, depending on type of memory and structure, to manufacturing
3D memory. Like other semiconductor processes, 3D memory chip production is
controlled by a few major fabricators, and has a huge cost barrier to entry. As
such, it is extremely difficult for any start-up to enter the market.
Defence In virtually every case, 3D memory appears exactly the same as conventional 2D
valuation memory, thanks to the “black box” method of computer design and manufacture.
However, to an incredibly sophisticated computer forensic team using methods
Forensic currently unknown in the private sector and bordering on the edge of theoretical
plausibility, 3D memory, especially stacked NAND may prove more difficult to
decipher than conventional 2D NAND.
Main actors Micron, Sandisk, Intel, Toshiba, SK Hynix, Samsung, AMD.
Recommendation For players with expertise in advanced digital forensics, including reading data
from damaged SSD drives, then 3D memory may prove a useful technology to
Adopt adopt (or at least try), so they may learn to read data from stacked memory cells
Try as well. If not, 3D memory will have a relatively low impact on the operations of
most companies and is not worth close observation.
 24.08.2015

Augmented Reality

Summary Augmented Reality (AR) is a concept where a real world visual space is
augmented by the addition of visual, audio or any other sensory information. AR is
Information most commonly associated with visual augmentation and most mature
HUD applications have used Head-up Displays (HUDs) to provide basic pictorial and
Internet textual information to the user. AR differs from Virtual Reality (VR) in that VR
Displays entirely replaces the user’s visual field with a virtual one, but the distinction
between AR and VR is constantly evolving and being challenged.
Historically, military applications have provided the greatest technical
developments with HUDs for pilots and, more recently, dismounted soldiers.
However, in recent years the development of smart phones and tablets has put the
potential for augmented reality into the hands of people that would never
previously have been able to afford the bespoke, high cost technology used in
military applications. An ethical and social acceptance issue of Google glass has
temporarily held back the technical development of augmented reality due to its
association with the camera system used within Google glass/
Weaknesses Weaknesses include display resolution (unable to convey complex information),
transparency (difficulties in projecting dark areas on to head mounted displays),
unit size (for head mounted systems) and social/ethical acceptance issues.
Related fields Portable power, Wearable Computing, Nanoelectronics, Internet of Things,
Holodeck, Consumer electronics, 3D Memory Chips, Telepresence, Virtual reality,
Voice Recognition.
Civil Uses Manufacturing and maintenance/repair, video games, navigation.
Trends & The main challenge facing AR technology is making the technology acceptable to
use in mainstream social situations. While this is not a concern for many viable
Challenges applications this issue will reduce the funding going into wearable AR technology
and therefore AR technology as a whole. Developments in contact lens based AR
may be a big step in the acceptance of mainstream AR.
General For civil applications, AR is still relatively immature and is being held back mostly
valuation by ethical and social concerns over privacy due to the association of permanent
camera surveillance with AR. This is despite AR not requiring camera information
Ealys adopter for many applications. Despite this association, limited adoption of civil AR
Fast moving headsets is expected within the next 5 years with the most likely applications being
Privacy as additions to existing head mounted items, such as safety helmets, and in
situations where visibility is poor or the hands are already involved in tasks. A civil
 example could be for cyclists.
Some commercial offerings have been available (notably Google glass) but these
have been mostly intended to ‘test the water’ rather than as a full product. In
January 2015 Google withdrew Google glass from sale but claims that it is
continuing to develop the concept.
AR technologies are in huge competition with Virtual Reality (VR) technologies and
other wearables such as smart watches.
Defence AR is already in mainstream use in military applications including for pliots and
valuation dismounted soldiers. However, these are largely high cost, bespoke devices built
into safety helmets. Current devices used in the air domain provide basic pictorial
Basic systems and textual information, often monochrome vector graphics displaying information
Navigation such as altitude or threat location. This information is also commonly a replication
Pilots of data available to the user through other means. In the medium term (10-20
years) we may see greater display fidelity and therefore AR devices being used to
replace information currently provided through other means within the cockpit.
Main actors Google, Oculus, Lockheed Martin, Microsoft, Samsung, BAE Systems.
Recommendation Military applications of augmented reality are already mature and have been in use
for some time, notably for aircraft pilots. The adoption of AR is also quickly moving
Adopt into other military applications including dismounted operations. Defense
Try stakeholders should be trying and testing these opportunities immediately as the
military domain is the most mature for applications.
 05.10.2015

Bio-Authentication

Summary Bio-authentication—or biometric authentication—is the application of

characteristics of an individual’s physiology or behavior in verifying that individual’s
identity. Importantly, these characteristics must be measurable and unique to the
individual. Biometric solutions for security applications have been in use for
decades and have experienced substantial improvements during that time. Their
use has generated interest in recent years because of the increasing
pervasiveness of the internet, the necessity to be a part of it, and the risk of
security breaches. The most well-known form of bio-authentication is the
fingerprint, which has found use in crime-scene analysis since the early 20th
century. Fingerprint bio-authentication technology is simple enough today that it
has been present in some high-end smartphones and tablets since 2011. Other
physiological traits that have found use in bio-authentication include iris, retinal,
vein-pattern, and facial recognition. Voice recognition is an example of a
behavioral characteristic that is occasionally employed in the verification of
identity. Walking gait and the way in which an individual interacts with a computer
have also shown promise in bio-authentication techniques. Away from crime-scene
analysis, DNA bio-authentication is not commonly in use for human security
purposes, but has been placed on products to combat counterfeiting.
Weaknesses Natural changes in the biometric data of individuals have been a hurdle. Security
of biometric data is key to the success of bio-authentication technologies.
Biometric “passwords” cannot simply be changed.
Related fields Medical Nanobots, Bionic Implants, Nanobiotechnology, R e t a i l , Consumer
electronics, Software, Insurance, Sensors, Emotion Tracking.
Civil Uses Security, consumer technology, border control, office and home entrance systems,
ticketing systems, crowd control, targeted marketing, banking, shopping/retail.
Trends & The use of biometrics in security verification is fairly simple and, as technology
Challenges costs decrease, bio-authentication techniques such as iris recognition are
becoming more common. The main challenge for this type of bio-authentication is
security of the biometric data. Typically, bio-authentication is used for verifying a
person’s identity, but research is trying to improve methods of identifying unknown
individuals. The challenge for this sort of identification is overcoming ethical, legal,
and technical hurdles to build a secure database of biometrics that can be
searched quickly. Other research trends are looking at alternative biometrics,
including heart rhythm, brain activity, and microbiomes.
 General Bio-authentication is in many ways mature. Advances in, and decreasing costs of,
valuation sensor technologies have brought biometric verification—such as fingerprint and
facial recognition—to high-end consumer electronics. Other bio-authentication
techniques are in use by governments in border control, identity cards, and
insurance verification. For example, the Social Security Institution of Turkey uses
a biometric scanner from Hitachi and MIG that identifies patients on the basis of
the vein patterns on a finger to ensure the country’s Universal Health Insurance
scheme is not misused. One of the major concerns over the use of bio-
authentication is whether the public feel the storing of biometric data is an invasion
of privacy. Warnings exist concerning the security of these data too. Criminals
could steal biometric data not only through hacking but also through physical
methods. For example, iris-pattern data could be stolen from a photo of an
individual. Furthermore, unlike alphanumeric-based passwords, an individual
cannot easily change their biometric “password” if it is stolen. For this reason,
traditional passwords, personal identification numbers, and wireless RFID
verification represent competing technologies. Multimodal bio-authentication and
adaptive biometric systems are avenues of research that may give biometric
verification the leading edge and overcome natural biometric changes.
Defence Some militaries are already employing bio-authentication systems for access to
valuation secure areas. Such bio-authentication could also find use in weapons and vehicles
in the field, preventing enemy forces from using captured equipment. Enemy
biometric data may also prove useful. The US Defense Forensics and Biometrics
Agency (DFBA) collects biometric data from non-US persons of interest to aid in
identifying suspected or known adversaries. The next development for this sort of
data would be to collect it covertly. For example, highly sensitive cameras that not
only could capture multiple biometrics very quickly but also identify individuals
would prove useful for surveillance. This sort of system could also help to quickly
identify friendly individuals in the field. The threat from biometric systems comes
from how enemy forces are gaining and using biometric data for themselves.
Furthermore, the use of bio-authentication security systems may put individuals
and their bodies at heightened risk.
Main actors Unisys, Go Vivace, Zwipe, Oxford BioChronometrics, Cognitec, M I G , Fujitsu,
Nymi, ievo, Intel, Nuance, 3M, Descarted Biometrics, Hitachi.
Recommendation Bio-authentication offers significant opportunities for diversifying security systems.
Defense organizations ought to try bio-authentication, not least because many
other defense organizations are doing so. However, the security of the biometric
data is paramount to the success of bio-authentication systems. Therefore, it is
important to develop secure systems to protect these data. Bio-authentication of
weapons and vehicles could be very useful in the field. However, the reality of how
useful and how practical bio-authentication of equipment could be needs to be
established. The use of biometric data in surveillance throws up a host of ethical
and legal difficulties depending on the context of its use. It is recommended,
therefore, that players observe the development of bio-authentication technology
for use in surveillance until a time when the technology is proven to be beneficial
enough to be worth adopting.
 22.09.2015

Biologically Extended Senses

Summary Correcting defective senses—particularly vision and hearing—has long been a

staple of human technological development. As these technologies have
Olfactory advanced, focus has shifted from merely correcting defects to enhancing the
Night vision human senses. Basic examples include night-vision goggles and infrared cameras.
Infrared But the possibilities for extended senses have expanded through advances in
various technological fields. The area of biologically extended senses is not a
coordinated and fully formed field of research; rather it is a broad application of
many different technologies. The main principle behind the application is the use of
technologies and techniques to enhance the senses beyond that of typical human
capabilities. Naturally, this definition includes the extension of hearing, sight, taste,
smell, and touch separately but also includes the enhancing of all or most of the
senses in order to remain alert. Many of the possible methods for extending the
senses are initially developed for other purposes. For example, transcranial direct
current stimulation (tDCS) was originally developed as a treatment for brain
injuries but has shown promise as a method for enhancing the abilities of soldiers.
Weaknesses Lack of collaboration and coordination between disparate fields to work toward
enhancing the senses is a current weakness. Additionally, ethical questions could
arise from some methods, in particular drugs.
Related fields Nanobiotechnology, Construction, Neuroscience, Neurology, Industrial, Emotion
Tracking.
Civil Uses Consumer use for alertness, research tools, health and safety, education, sports
and leisure.
Trends & Technologies and techniques for extending senses are developing from very
Challenges disparate areas, ranging from meditation methods to electronic devices to drugs.
Meditation for focusing the mind and senses has a very long history, but new
Disparate techniques are embracing technology. For example, the EU-funded
Research focus INTERSTRESS project attempted to teach the process of lowering stress levels
Consolidation through biometric sensors and virtual-reality environments. The progression of
neuroscience will play a significant role in the development of biologically extended
senses. The field is increasingly garnering attention and funding. However, the
main challenge for extended-senses techniques is consolidating and focusing
research.
General As a whole, the extension of the senses is a fairly immature field. However,
narrower clusters of technologies and techniques are more advanced and
 valuation progressing quickly. For example, tDCS and other neurostimulation methods are
being developed specifically for enhancing the nervous system. Some
Disparate neurostimulation devices—such as cochlear implants—are already available for
Ethics people with certain disabilities. US company foc.us sells transcranial-stimulating
Emerging devices commercially to the computer gaming community. Sleep science is a
developing area of research that could have implications for methods of extending
the senses. Research at Washington University demonstrated the use of a
hormone to control the body clocks of mice. Some practices—including meditation,
training techniques, and diets—claim to help enhance the senses. However, high-
integrity studies of these practices are uncommon. Sports psychology is a popular
method for improving performance in intense situations.
Some methods for extending the senses raise questions about health and safety.
For example, some research has suggested that tDCS can cause side effects,
including burning sensation, temporary blindness, and loss of consciousness.
Ethical questions exist surrounding the need for such enhancement of the senses,
particularly as automation via machines, sensors, and artificial intelligence are
improving significantly.

Defence In theory, extended senses could be very useful in defense. Indeed, modafinil—a
valuation drug for treating wakefulness disorders such as narcolepsy—has found use in
operations by some armed forces, such as that of the United States and France.
Covert However, the necessity of biologically extended senses is questionable when
Darkness much of the defense sector is moving toward remotely controlled—or even
autonomous—machines. Although the alertness of those people operating the
machines is important, replacing them with a fresh operator may be simpler than
using sense-enhancing techniques at their current level of development.
Nevertheless, extended senses could be very useful in intense, covert operations.
The ability to enhance sensory perception on demand gives significant advantages
—for example, the capability to perform the operation at any time of day—in these
situations. However, the long-term side effects of using methods to enhance the
senses needs to be considered.
Main actors Brown University, foc.us, DARPA, University of Washington, Neuroscience Center
Zurich, UCL Neuroscience.
Recommendation Much of the research surrounding biologically extended senses is nascent and
warrants monitoring. Observing developments arising from the field of neurological
Observe research is highly recommended because this area currently has a significant
amount of momentum behind it and could produce discoveries of great importance
to the extension of the senses. Other areas are worth trying. tDCS is of particular
interest to many defense organizations, but it requires more research to help
develop it into a useful and safe tool. Some approved medical drugs may be worth
investigating for use in enhancing alertness if proved to be safe. While the
usefulness of meditation and similar practices to enhance the senses is difficult to
gauge, some psychological training techniques may be beneficial. Sports
psychology is common in professional sports and is worth trying to see if it can be
tailored to the defense sector.
 25.08.2015

Bionic Implants

Summary Bionic implants enhance or correct the function of organs or other body parts;
these systems often mimic the functions and appearances of natural equivalents.
Prosthetics These implants sense and react to the body’s natural signals. Bionic implants
Sensory covers a wide range of products and applications, from the commercially mature,
Stimulators to the conceptual. Pacemakers (not strictly speaking bionic devices, but
Enhancement nonetheless closely related) and cochlear implants are well-established devices,
and artificial hearts are now available, albeit for temporary application. Retinal
Augmentation
implants are in the early stages of commercialization, with some success treating
specific blindness conditions. Advanced prosthetics are starting to become more
bionic in their responses. Neural stimulators to treat epilepsy and Parkinson's
disease are under development, as are implants to treat sleep apnea.
Neuron-connected prosthetics—that users can move with thought power—have
long been the goal for limb replacements. In addition, researchers hope to develop
prosthetic implants with sensory feedback. Further into the future, developments in
nanotechnology could enable tiny bionic devices, such as respirocytes—artificial,
mechnical blood cells that can replicate and surpass the human respiratory
system; each artificial cell could transport 200 times more oxygen than a natural
red blood cell.
Weaknesses Bionic implants are nascent and expensive: Current devices stimulate
muscle/neural tissue in a basic way. Understanding of physiological processes
needs to improve before effective systems emerge.
Related fields Medical Nanobots, Nanobiotechnology, Portable Power, Wearable Computing,
Internet of Things, Smart Materials, Human Augmentation, MEMS, Brain-to-Brain
Interfaces, Flexible Electronics, Bio Authentification.
Civil Uses Technologies such as artificial sight and hearing devices; neutrally-connected
prosthetics; artificial or enhanced organs. All could see use to correct debilitating
conditions, or enhance human capabilities.
Trends & Advances in technology—particularly nanotechnology—are paving the way for
Challenges neuron-connected devices that integrate better with the body. Medical research is
well versed in the workings of the eye and the optic nerve; as a result, many of the
Nanotechnology advances in neuron-connected devices are occurring in implants that connect to
Neuroscience the optic nerve and aid with vision. For other applications, scientists need to
Cost reduction understand much more about how the neural system functions. For example, the
US National Institutes of Health (NIH) is proposing to fund research that focuses
 Safety on the mechanisms that underlie the electrical control of the body's organs.
General Bionic-implant technology is growing steadily, with the capability of these devices
valuation depend upon scientists’ understanding of body functions. Cochlear and, to a
lesser extent, retinal implants are now available, but other devices that require
Trials connection to the body’s neural system are still in a highly developmental phase.
Emerging In February 2013, Second Sight gained US Food and Drug Administration
approval for its Argus II device. The prosthetic device restores some sight to
people visually impaired by retinitis pigmentosa. The purpose of the Argus II is to
restore mobility to the retinitis pigmentosa sufferers by allowing them to distinguish
some objects. However, the device has the potential for restoring vision to other
forms of blindness in which parts of the retina and the optic nerve are still
functional. Future availability will depend on devices’ costs. Currently, the Argos II
costs $100,000. In the next ten years, the adoption of nanotechnology will reduce
the limitations that prosthetics currently have. Consequently, the high price of the
devices will likely fall, although for prosthetics like the Argus II the price will likely
remain high because the Argus II is for a niche market. However, should
prosthetics find wider use for augmenting healthy people—for example, a visual
implant that enables the user to see infrared light—then the cost of such devices
could fall further.
Defence In terms of threats, bionic implants could be used to improve the performance of
valuation military personnel. For example, a visual implant that enables users to see infrared
light could enable soldiers to see in the dark. These devices are becoming more
Technology Transfer cost effective. However, ethical issues would surround the use of implants that are
invasive.
In addition, bionic implants could restore many aspects of the lives of military
personnel who are injured during active service. For example, implants could
restore sight, hearing and perhaps some physical functions.
In all likelihood, it is more likely that lessons learned, and technologies developed
from, bionic implants, are likely to spin off into defense applications. In particular,
bionic-implant technologies could result in technologies that enable better
wearable devices—for improving motion, vision, other senses, and so on.
Main actors GlaxoSmithKline, KAIST, Retina Implant, EPFL, Second Sight, Touch Bionics,
Chicago Center for Bionic Medicine.
Recommendation This technology area falls somewhere between the observe and try categories. It
is worth monitoring the numerous bionic-implant technologies and approaches,
Observe and assessing their potential to transfer into applications that are more directly
Try related to defense and military applications (as discussed in Defense & Security
Valuation, above).
 04.10.2015

Brain to Brain Interface

Summary Brain-brain interface (BBIs)—sometimes referred as synthetic telepathy or silent

communication—technologies enable thought communication. BBIs use
Remote control neuroscientific principles: The nervous system—brain and spinal cord—comprises
Neurons neurons, connected by neural synapses, which communicate using electrical
EEG signals. Neurons send messages to neurons, or networks of neurons. Neurons’
complex firing patterns underpin multiple phenomena, including memory,
consciousness, and motor functions.
While understanding of these complex neural mechanisms is incomplete, by using
electroencephalography (EEG)—and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and
positron emission tomography (PET)—researchers have developed brain-
computer interface (BCI) systems that can interpret brain activity. Researchers
have also developed computer-brain interfaces (CBIs)—in particular anscranial
magnetic stimulation (TMS) systems—that transmit information to a brain; in some
cases precipitating physical reactions. BBI is an extension of BCI and CBI.
BBI implementation will in part come through developments in these enabling
technologies: DARPA has funded the development of neural implants for ‘remote
control’ of animals. A 2003 Duke University BCI enabled a monkey to control a
robot arm. In 2014, a University of Washington noninvasive BBI system captured
brain signals from one researcher using an EEG, sent signals via the internet to a
TMS attached to a second researcher, in an attempt to initiate finger movement.
Weaknesses Only two BBI systems have been demonstrated; their efficacy is controversial.
Neuroscientists do not fully understand the brain. BBIs only convey simple “on-off”
messages. Equipment is currently slow and complex.
Related fields Nanobiotechnology, Virtual Reality, Wearable Computing, Nanoelectronics,
wireless/internet communications, h e a l t h c a r e , B C I s / B M I s , intefaces,
microelectronics, Biotechnology, data security, Bionic Implants, organic
computing, neuroscience.
Civil Uses Healthcare and medicine, in particular, rehabilitation; training, instruction, and
machine operation. Long-term, BBIs could enable wholly new, disruptive,
communication concepts.
Trends & Research trends are broad and aspirational. A major research area is the
Challenges replication As highlighted above, BBI research programs involve combinations of
BCIs/CBIs. Researchers have developed BBI systems that can transmit simple—
Replication almost binary in nature—pieces of information. For example, researchers at
 Record, Store Brain Starlab Barcelona claimed to send a message between Kerala and Strasbourg;
Activity the binary message used a TMS to cause the receiver to see light pulses.
Understanding brain function is a huge task, and a key challenge for future BBIs.
Nevertheless, incredible progress has occurred in the past 20 years; progress that
will continue. European and US researchers plan to create technology that can
record, store, and play back, brain activity.
General BBI is an immature area and is available only in research laboratories.
valuation Nevertheless, related technologies such as BCIs are more mature. Some enabling
components such as EEG, functional MRI, and TMS are already commercial.
Immature Progress in these enabling technologies will contribute to the success of BBI.
Controversial Some simple BCI technology has crept toward the mainstream. In the mid-1980s,
Uncertain Atari experimented with an EMG headband to detect muscle movements. In the
late 2000s, NeuroSky announced EEG/EMG interfaces for entertainment,
automotive and health applications. The effectiveness of these systems is
uncertain. As the technology progresses, becoming faster and more accurate, BBI
is likely to become controversial—for numerous security and privacy reasons.
Competing technologies include all existing communications approaches (voice,
text, video), and also automation and robotics (effectively, machine-machine
interfaces), because automation reduces the need for person-to-person
communications.
Defence The prospect of seamless, wordless information transmission between people and
valuation personnel is highly significant—and already of interest to the global defense
community. Indeed, a significant amount of BBI, BCI, and neuroscience research
Communication is funded by military organizations. For example, DARPA has funded research into
Privacy BCIs and BBIs (including some work at Duke University). Opportunities exist for
DARPA novel defense-related forms of communication—communication that could render
spoken language obsolete in some applications. Training and tutoring is
particularly important in defense settings; BBIs could revolutionize training,
perhaps enabling instant training of military personnel. Beyond remote control and
military-focused medical and rehabilitation applications, long-term opportunities
also include connected living systems: Duke University researchers report to have
connected the brains of rats, enabling a new form of swarm intelligence. Threats
include surreptitious use of BBI, BCI, and CBI approaches. Currently, these
technologies are either invasive or at least require wearable interfaces. As this
technology becomes more compact, and perhaps more pervasive, new threats
could emerge—in particular, hacking. Advanced interfaces could make privacy
itself obsolete.
Main actors Toyota (enabling technologies), Duke University, Brown University, Honda, State
University of New York, D A R PA , AT I , Shandong University, University of
Washington, Starlab Barcelona (BBIs).
Recommendation Key recommendations include tracking and monitoring developments in this
technology, and also in related fields (brain-machine interfaces, neuroscience).
Disruptive Although BBI technology is likely to see slow development and adoption, it could
Observe & Try render a number of existing communications technologies obsolete. It could also
compete with traditional rehabilitation and—importantly—training methods and
procedures.
 04.10.2015

Computer Vision

Summary Image recognition is mature for certain domains, such as faces that look directly
into cameras and quality control of manufactured goods. Machine learning—
Image recognition computers “figuring out for themselves” the mathematical features of images that
Deep learning humans have explicitly labeled as depicting, say, cats and dogs—helps machines
Machine spot those features in arbitrary unlabeled images. People use the term deep
Understanding learning to describe architectures having many layers, typically of artificial models
Navigation of biological neural networks. But alternative technical methods, especially
probabilistic models, are also important to progress.
Some robots and autonomous vehicles implement computer vision for navigation
and other purposes, often by comparing images to prepared maps and models. In
some cases the robots and cars themselves explore an area to help prepare those
maps and models.
Some research aims toward image understanding. Recognizing that an image
contains a dog and also a dish of ice cream is distinct from recognizing that the
dog is eating ice cream, and thereby deducing that in fact dogs sometimes do eat
ice cream.
Weaknesses Computers need many training examples to learn new objects, are prone to
generating false-positive detections, and are poor at producing descriptions of
what occurred when a photograph was captured.
Related fields Connectomics, Photogrammetry, Machine Learning, Signal processing, Artificial
intelligence, Sensors.
Civil Uses Commercial technologies include radiological diagnosis, automated optical
inspection in manufacturing, automated organization of photo collections, and
searches for “similar” (often, labeled) images. Stakeholders expect to improve
searching for unlabeled objects.
Trends & Large, brand-name companies, research institutes, and some startups are
Challenges investing abundant resources in long-term efforts to achieve human-like visual
intelligence. Researchers commonly participate in formal competitions that
Graphics processing benchmark software performance—such as success in drawing a box around a
Benchmarking dog and identifying its breed. Many, but not all, state-of-the-art computer-vision
Machine learning systems execute machine learning on graphics processor units—which can be, but
are not necessarily, more economical and computationally efficient for the purpose
Decision making
than ordinary processors. People commonly inspect drawings to solve problems
and make reasoned decisions, and some research aims to give computers similar
 abilities.
General Basic forms of image recognition, especially the limited case of recognizing facial
valuation portraits, are somewhat mature. Some security technologies seem underused,
such as systems that detect unattended baggage. The volume of advanced
Immature research activity is very high, fuelling recent steady improvements in computer-
Basic vision benchmarks, and justifying some expectation of further momentum.
Underused But overall, computer vision technology is quite immature, with machines needing
High-cost far more training images than their human counterparts, and poor recognition of
faces captured by surveillance cameras. And deep learning’s big-data approach,
which has driven much of the recent progress, may not scale economically to
machine-understanding tasks. Competing computer vision methods for navigation
of vehicles, robots, and drones impose varying resource requirements, such as
varying dependence on cloud services and prepared maps. As different sub-
disciplines progress at different rates, requirements changes could disrupt long-
range development projects.
A sufficiently dramatic improvement in face recognition could stimulate a public
backlash against the loss of a customary sense of anonymity, say, in drugstores
and bars.
Defence Over a dozen companies sell solutions that detect specific events of interest to
valuation surveillance specialists, such as presence of unattended baggage and persons
who fall, loiter, produce graffiti, shoplift, and prowl in the manner of a car thief.
Automation Apparently, intelligence agencies aim to teach machines to perform key tasks
Friend-or-foe such as friend-or-foe identification, but still have strong reliance on human image
Surveillance analysts. The analysis of aerial and satellite images is often a human-machine
Crime collaboration rather a fully automated process.
And notably, face recognition technology remains unreliable for images of people
who are not looking directly at a camera, hampering efforts to, say, automatically
identify that a person of interest has walked past a surveillance camera at an
oblique angle, in situations where a human observer could have made the
identification.
Main actors Clarifai, Microsoft, Facebook, INRIA, NLPR, NUS, Baidu, University of Toronto,
Vicarious, G o o g l e , S e n ti e n t, University of Oxford, ETH Zurich, EFPL,
Amazon.com.
Recommendation Computer vision certainly merits observation by governments, military
organizations, and their suppliers, who could benefit from likely improvements in
Observe automated surveillance and computer-assisted intelligence assessments.
Try Observation and focused assessments can reveal the resource and performance
requirements of systems that can attain varying (and evolving) tiers of computer-
vision performance. Organizations with interest in the development of various
autonomous vehicle, robot, and drone technologies also have reason to observe
and try competing approaches to computer vision for self-navigation. With
sufficient technological progress, machine understanding of dynamic
environments might surpass navigation by matching images to prepared maps
and models.
 04.10.2015

Context-Aware Computing

Summary Context-aware computing (CAC) uses sensors, location, user preferences, activity
logs, environmental information, and other data to proactively deliver information,
Autonomy execute commands, and adjust user interfaces in accord with changing conditions,
User experience with the aim of improving utility of software and quality of user experience, allowing
Intelligence users to focus on tasks and experiences rather than on the mechanisms of human-
computer interaction.
Visions of pervasive computing and intelligent-agent software generally
encompass the ideals of CAC, seeking to implement more or less autonomous
software that identifies a user’s needs and acts on user’s behalf without explicit
instructions, like a silent butler. CAC also aims to respond to fuzzy human needs,
like the need not to be disturbed unless an incoming message is important, relative
to perhaps innumerable explicit and implicit conditions.
Simple implementations include screen brightness controls that automatically
adjust to ambient light; and PC software that presents menus appropriate to a
current task. Applications that were considered advanced in past years are now
routine, including video streams that automatically adapt to available screen sizes
and data rates, and fitness apps that fuse sensor and location data to identify
whether a user is walking or bicycling to automatically generate a calorie-burn
estimate.
Weaknesses CAC’s many difficulties include poor indoor-location technology, ambiguities about
which messages to prioritize, and challenges in detecting when to leave users
undisturbed, say, during impromptu meetings and while driving.
Related fields Virtual Reality, Internet of Things, Indoor location, Data compression, Sensor
fusion, User interfaces, Predictive Crime Prevention, Adaptive systems, Behavior
recognition, Quantum Computing, Situation awareness, Machine Learning,
Computer Vision, Wearables, Artificial intelligence, Swarms, Sensors, Search
engines, Emotion Tracking.
Civil Uses Programmers will maintain and extend use of CAC for message delivery, search
engines, augmented reality, smart buildings, driver safety, health and fitness
applications.
Trends & R&D efforts seek to detect and classify user activities; automatically detect
Challenges presence and availability for messaging; improve indoor location systems; and use
contextual information to interpret verbal commands that are otherwise ambiguous.
Automation
 Contextual Significant challenges include improving safety by suppressing incoming
Data fusion messages to vehicle drivers but not to passengers; presenting a list of printers that
Location are prioritized according to proximity; interpreting data from wearable devices to
discriminate lifting hand weights from lifting eating utensils; and enabling follow-me
services that automatically activate and deactivate lights, music, video,
communications, and security systems as a user performs chores around and
away from a house.
General In some senses the technology is quite mature, initially signalled by the ubiquity of
valuation office-productivity and graphic-design software that presents menus and tools that
vary in accord with a task’s context. Subsequently, smartphones began to contain
Partially mature suites of over a dozen sensors and multiple location technologies, enabling
development of very many mobile apps that make use of such technologies.
At conferences on human-computer interfaces, location technologies, and
pervasive computing, context awareness is merely one of many attributes of
diverse applications that depend on sensor data, streams of social media
messages, and other inputs. Significantly, the Interaction Design Foundation
discontinued its Symposium on Location and Context Awareness (LoCA)
conferences after 2009.
In another sense CAC is most immature because it has had very limited success
satisfying its goal of determining user intentions without explicit input. Famously,
people saw Microsoft’s circa-2000 “Clippy” context-sensitive help assistant as
intrusive and unhelpful. Users also shun the types of continuous surveillance and
data aggregation that might improve automated context recognition. A related
constraint arises when CAC would benefit from adding more sensors, but cost and
ease of installation is unsatisfactory.
Defence Some stakeholders see “context sensitive security” as important for cybersecurity,
valuation although the term may simply be a buzzword for wise practices such as policy-
based security management and pattern recognition for anomaly
Security detection. Decision support could benefit from systems that “do what I mean, not
Automation just what I say”. Relevance rankings for a query like “where are the drones?” could
Pattern recognition depend on factors like whether a user is inventorying a warehouse or pinned down
in a bivouac.
Prioritization
Situation awareness could benefit from context-sensitive prioritization of messages
Threat detection
and intelligent fusion of sensors and other inputs. Otherwise, personnel risk
information overload—especially as sources of digital information proliferate. That
said, opposing forces might intercept and exploit sensors deployed for CAC
purposes.
Main actors Apple, Expect Labs, LG Electronics, Google, Motion Picture Experts Group,
Microsoft, Samsung, FitBit, Interaction Design Foundation, MIT.
Recommendation Ideas about CAC serve to focus some stakeholders’ minds on remedies for design
shortcomings, especially for poor user interfaces that continue to plague users with
Observe demands. Such remedies may tend to make wise use of artificial intelligence and
Try numerical methods to recognize and classify events that are relevant to a system’s
operation. Focused observation might uncover whether “context aware security”
promises benefits that are distinct from those of best practices in security, such as
policy-based management and pattern-recognition for anomaly detection.
 19.09.2015

Emotion Tracking

Summary Emotion tracking systems combine sensors and analytical tools to read and
monitor subjects’ emotional states or reactions. They may rely mainly on video,
Algorithm voice, or motion data, or a combination of data. Some systems look for specific
Entertainment changes in emotional states. For example, cameras on video poker and slot
Sensing machines detect when a player begins to get bored, and reacts by offering side
Boredom bets or some other novelty. Likewise, fatigue detection systems warn drivers to
rest by analyzing tiny changes in eye movement that signal drowsiness. Other
Interaction
systems monitor a caller’s overall emotional state: call centers sometimes have a
“dashboard” that advises whether a caller is amused, aggrieved, or likely to agree
to a purchase. A few systems, building on the work of MIT professor Sandy
Pentland, use voice and motion data to measure group interactions, levels of
engagement, and a workplace’s emotional tone.
Emotion detection has improved greatly in recent years. Algorithms can train on
large databases of recorded phone calls, photographs shared on social media,
and motion data from fitness bands. Improvements in digital cameras,
microphones, and accelerometers have virtually eliminated hardware barriers to
emotion detection. Finally, demand for the technology in a range of industries has
grown.
Weaknesses The technology is prone to errors in bad conditions (low lighting, loud rooms), and,
outside highly specific use contexts (like driving), can be a challenge to interpret
and act on.
Related fields Nanobiotechnology, Wearable Computing, Bio Authentification, Biologically
Extended Senses, Predictive Crime Prevention, Consumer Electronics, Quantum
Computing, Marketing, Context-Aware Computing, Machine Learning, Psychology,
Computer Vision, Sensors.
Civil Uses Emotion tracking has potential application in fields where emotional states affect
performance, including but not restricted to law enforcement, finance,
transportation, gaming, marketing, education, health and safety, occupational
training.
Trends & Emotion tracking has improved dramatically in recent years. As we move into a
Challenges future of pervasive computing, always-on personal devices, and ever-richer
sensors, potential application areas will expand.
Responsiveness Key drivers include: Proliferation of increasingly sensitive cameras, microphones,
Misuse issues and motion sensors; Vast quantities of data for training algorithms; Efforts to make
 Cameras automated systems (from video gambling to online learning) more responsive to
Integration users.
Key barriers include: Integration of emotion tracking technology into products; High
potential for misuse or poor deployment; Potential legal/privacy challenges in
civilian use.
General Emotion tracking technologies have improved significantly in recent years, and will
valuation continue to improve as enabling technologies become cheaper, more sensitive,
and more widespread. In the near future, the biggest adoptions will be in
Diverse professions where performance is affected by emotional states in measurable
Emerging ways. Examples include: Fatigue detection for drivers, doctors and nurses;
Student engagement with / comprehension of material; Fatigue and emotions of
soldier and law enforcement; Emotional states of bankers and stock traders.
In some areas, technologies will compete against each other. In fatigue detection,
for example, different systems detect drowsiness using video, eye tracking, motion
sensors, or respiratory activity. In others, systems using dedicated hardware will
compete with smartphone- or laptop-based apps. Workplace emotion detectors,
for example, mainly use “smart badges” today, but more modern systems will be
able to use smartphone sensors.
The technology will be challenged by privacy advocates on the grounds that such
monitoring is intrusive. Further, stories of false reports or misuse could hinder
adoption of the technology.
Defence In defence and security, the major uses of emotion detection will be: Fatigue
valuation detection. Recent research has revealed how strongly fatigue can affect judgment,
reflexes and decision-making. In circumstances demanding rapid decisions and
Training life-and-death choices, fatigue can lead to fatal errors. Having the means to detect
Fatigue detection and objectively measure fatigue will help reduce such errors, and contribute to
Interrogation destigmatizing fatigue. Training: The ability to accurately measure emotional
reactions during simulations and training will be valuable in selecting candidates
for stressful jobs, training people to improve their emotional control, and learn to
make positive use of heightened emotional states. Interrogation: Emotion detection
could be helpful for detecting potential threats, assessing the emotional states of
suspects or prisoners, or even measuring the mood of prison populations.
Main actors Sociometric, Fatigue Science, Affectiva, Emospeech, EmoVu, Optalert, MIT, Bally.
Recommendation As emotion detection technology advances, it will be integrated into a variety of
products and workplaces, but it is important to note several caveats. First,
Observe emotion detection is a highly specialized field that draws on a variety of
Try engineering specialties, psychology, and other disciplines. Adopting new
technologies requires gigantic quantities of training data, complex algorithms, and
machine learning systems. Like many high tech products, emotion detection tools
will be at once easy to integrate into new products, but difficult to make. To draw a
comparison: search is easy to add to Web sites through the Google API, but
search engines are exceptionally hard to develop. Finally, outside highly specific
applications their use becomes complicated, problematic, and sometimes even
legally suspect.
 13.09.2015

Holographic Technologies

Summary Holodeck type experiences can be broadly divided into: Holograms, volumetric
displays, stereoscopic 3D displays and virtual reality.
Hologram
Holograms are a way of recreating the light from a physical scene using the
Stereoscopic diffraction pattern of the light involved. At present holograms can only be created
Laser on holographic plates, forming a still image. This gives the appearance of
Volumetric observing an object through the holographic plate as if it were a window.
Volumetric displays are currently extremely limited. Researchers using high-
powered lasers have created rudimentary volumetric images by ionizing air
particles.
Stereoscopic 3D displays are used to present movies in 3D both in cinemas and,
increasingly, in the home. Most stereoscopic systems rely on users wearing
special glasses that control the light reaching each eye. Manufacturers have also
developed several auto-stereoscopic systems that create the same illusion without
requiring special glasses, but with other limitations such as viewing angles.
Virtual reality frequently incorporates the use of special head mounted displays
that provide different images to a user’s right and left eyes and track head
movements, creating the appearance of a 3D scene. (For a more detailed look at
virtual reality systems please see the profile on Immersive multi-user VR.)
Weaknesses Holograms are restricted to single static images. Volumetric displays face huge
issues with energy consumption, noise, resolution and safety. Stereoscopic 3D
requires either glasses or carefully controlled viewing conditions.
Related fields Augmented reality, Wearable Computing, Nanoelectronics, Internet of Things,
Telepresence, Virtual reality, Photography, Nanomaterials, Optical computing,
Quantum Computing, Computer modeling, 3D printing, 3D scanning.
Civil Uses Remote conferencing, videoconferencing, advertizing, virtual reality, gaming,
cinema, optical computing/data storage, Computer Aided Design (CAD).
Trends & Static holograms and volumetric displays are not being widely pursued and offer
Challenges only niche interest at present. Research in stereoscopic 3D is mostly focused on
the home entertainment market. There is an ongoing push for larger screens and
Investment higher resolutions in the television sector and considerable effort has gone into
Resolution developing ways of watching media in 3D. There is also interest in immersive 3D
Increasing size gaming experiences.
General True holodeck experiences remain some way off. However, 3D displays is a
 valuation relatively well understood technology that is slowly gaining acceptance due to
consumer demand. However, any further developments in this field are likely to be
Incremental refinements and improvements in industrial processes, reducing costs and
Cost increasing availability of stereoscopic, autostereoscopic and VR systems; the
limiting factor is likely to be overall demand rather than direct competition from
alternative technologies.
Whilst full holograms and volumetric displays do have significant potential, the gulf
between the current state of the technology and the realistic is large, making any
major short to medium term developments unlikely.
Defence 3D displays offer a way of presenting complex data in a convenient format
valuation allowing swifter interpretation than 2D displays. Potential applications include 3D
maps and radar displays. It also has potential for combination with synergistic
Vehicle control technologies, for example presenting 3D images captured by reconnaissance
Training aircraft or remote unmanned vehicles. 3D displays could be used either as part of
Data interpretation augmented reality displays or on their own to assist in vehicle maneuvers such as
landing helicopters, guiding remote-controlled missiles, or piloting unmanned aerial
Reconnaissance
vehicles. The potential for 3D imaging via virtual reality for training purposes is
Data visualization considerable.
Main actors Sony, Samsung, Sharp, Philips, Sanyo, NTT Data Corporation, Panasonic, Itochu
Corporation.
Recommendation Holograms, 3D displays and virtual reality are all relatively mature technology
fields; their principles and potential are well understood. Whilst time and resources
Observe will lead to developments, there are major technological hurdles to further
Try progress and it would seem unlikely that there will be any major leaps forward in
the near future.
Players across a wide range of industries, including the defense sector, should
consider trying the technology at its present state of development—in particular
the use of 3D displays for conveying complex information e.g. for three-
dimensional radar displays. Interested parties should also observe synergistic
technologies, particularly 3D scanning techniques such as LIDAR that have the
potential to allow rapid three-dimensional mapping of areas.
 24.08.2015

Hypersonic Technology

Summary Hypersonic speed is generally defined as being above Mach 5. However, there is
no fixed speed definition because of physical changes in the airflow at the
Friction transition from supersonic to hypersonic. The ability to be able to accelerate
Mach 5 objects to hypersonic speed, in air, has been available for some time and is used
Missiles in many military missile systems. In theory, hypersonic speed can be achieved by
any propulsion device that can overcome the frictional forces to continue to
accelerate an object to hypersonic speed. However, at hypersonic speeds the
friction of the object travelling through the air generates temperatures high enough
to melt many traditional construction metals. This effect restricts the survivability of
objects travelling at hypersonic speed.
Acceleration is also a big issue with achieving hypersonic flight, especially for the
potential of human inhabited hypersonic flight. Humans cannot sustain g-forces
greater than 4-6G and will feel discomfort at much lower G.
Most conceptual and experimental development of hypersonic technology has
been for quick response delivery of tactical military operations including potential
nuclear devices. While there has been a lot of development of commercial space
projects, hypersonic flight is not required to achieve space flight.
Weaknesses Survivability of objects at hypersonic speeds, including human survival (due to the
friction-generated temperatures and the acceleration forces required to reach
hypersonic speeds) pose significant problems.
Related fields Materials Science, Nanoelectronics, Commercial Space, Smart Materials, MEMS,
Propultion, Scramjets, Nanomaterials, Stealth & Camouflage.
Civil Uses Physical limitations of human bodies, massive energy inefficiencies, and no
matching problem space for the solution, limit civil applications. Logistics
applications remain possible, but would struggle to achieve economic viability.
Trends & The main challenge is the survivability of the object travelling at hypersonic speed.
Challenges However, high cost solutions that can protect from extreme temperatures do
already exist. Materials science advances, including atomic scale carbon,
Costs ceramics and composite materials may reduce costs.
Materials Research will continue to focus on defense applications for long range, short
Guidance duration, one-shot tactical strikes which may only act as deterrents and may never
Survivability be deployed in conflict.
Future research trends will focus on control, guidance and propulsion. Guidance is
 a particular issue as traditional control surfaces either do not work or will not
survive extreme temperature conditions.

General The maturity of hypersonic flight technology for application outside of military
valuation operations is very, very, low and is unlikely to see anything more than
experimental demonstration within 50 years.
Reduced Funding The key reason for this is the lack of problem space that hypersonic technology
Long-Term can provide the best solution to. The sole reason for hypersonic technology is to
Conceptual reduce the time between the initiation of an action and its physical execution.
There are many technologies experiencing huge current growth, which provide a
cheaper, more reliable or socially acceptable method of reducing this time. In the
military context, cyber warfare and stealth technology are both examples that
would be preferable to hypersonic technology. The notable exception to the above
rule is human transportation, but limitations on what acceleration a human will
tolerate, hold back implementation.
Hypersonic technology has seen reduced funding and interest in recent years and
some high profile projects have lost focus or been shelved.
Defence Defense will be the big driver of hypersonic technology and the first
valuation implementation will likely be within defense. However, the technology is likely to be
restricted to nations with massive defence budgets and may well be used as a
High Cost deterrent rather than being implemented. The threat of nuclear attack via a
Restricted hypersonic missile or aircraft is possible but if nuclear war becomes a reality, the
deployment method is largely irrelevant.
Due to the high cost of hypersonic technology, its deployment as a threat is
extremely unlikely within the next 20 years.
Main actors Chinese military, DARPA, NASA.
Recommendation Defense stakeholders should not focus efforts on hypersonic technology.
Observing developments within a small number of big players (DARPA, Chinese
Observe Military) would be an interesting exercise but the low likelihood of realizable
applications means that this should not become a priority or occupy too much time.
Defense players should use these observation exercises to keep an eye out for
potential game changers within the technology, but it is unlikely that any significant
changes to capability will occur within the next 20 years.
 19.09.2015

Immersive Multi-User Virtual Reality

Summary Immersive multi-user virtual reality (VR) creates the illusion that users are inside
shared three-dimensional digital environments. Users can typically interact with
Software
these environments using natural or physical actions such as turning their head to
Virtual reality change their viewing position. VR differs from augmented reality because VR
Displays isolates users from the real world rather than integrating real and virtual content.
Many VR approaches use stereoscopic near-eye displays, head-tracking position
detectors, and (sometimes) handheld controllers, sensor gloves or other input
technologies. These VR headsets have existed since the 1980s but costs are
falling and performance is improving due to efforts to commercialize VR headsets
for consumer entertainment applications.
An alternative to virtual-reality headsets are CAVEs (cave automatic virtual
environments)—rooms equipped with multiple projectors that present images over
entire walls and sometimes floors and ceilings. EON Reality's Icube is one existing
commercial example of this approach.
As well as the virtual-reality user interface, immersive multi-user VR requires
software to create 3D environments and to co-ordinate between multiple users.
Weaknesses Many users experience motion sickness when using VR headsets. VR content is
limited and expensive to develop. Display resolution is poor relative to
conventional displays. Consumer adoption is still uncertain.
Related fields Augmented reality, Portable power, Brain-controlled devices, Smartphones,
Wearable Computing, Nanoelectronics, Context-Aware Computing, MEMS, 3D
scanning, Brain-to-Brain Interfaces, Telepresence, Simulations.
Civil Uses Gaming is the key application of new VR headsets. Other, largely experimental,
applications include immersive cinema, education and training, rehabilitation,
phobia-treatment, architecture, and financial-trading support.
Trends & Reducing motion sickness is a key issue for VR headset manufacturers. Faster
Challenges screen-refresh rates appear to reduce (but as yet not eliminate) motion sickness.
Uptake of consumer VR headsets is still uncertain, and without mass-market
Consumer demand
adoption the cost-reduction and technology-improvement of VR will progress only
Refresh rates slowly (as with CAVE systems that remain niche). To create success for consumer
Gaming VR headsets, providers need to create games and applications that are compelling
enough to drive headset sales beyond those consumers that are interested in VR
for its novelty value.
 General Consumer-oriented VR headsets offer the best prospects for progress in virtual-
valuation reality. Mass-market consumer adoption, driven by gaming, will be the key
breakthrough and Oculus VR, Sony, HTC, and Samsung all plan to release
Consumer electronics consumer products by the end of 2016 (developer editions of some headsets are
Falling costs already available).
Augmented-reality headsets such as Microsoft Hololens or Magic Leap may
compete with immersive VR—particularly if these devices offer compelling gaming
experiences. Conventional gaming devices also provide key competition.
For defense and security organizations (and for businesses), immersive VR needs
to develop “must have” rather than “nice to have” applications. For example,
although immersive VR may improve training outcomes, similar outcomes can
perhaps also be achieved with game-based learning on conventional computers.
Although developments in consumer electronics are driving down the cost of
virtual reality headsets, developing VR content remains fairly expensive.
Improvements in 3D scanning technologies could help reduce development costs
for creating simulated environments. VR development costs are also likely to fall
somewhat if VR gaming becomes popular because supporting authoring tools and
techniques are likely to progress.
Defence Defense organizations have experimented with VR-based training since the early
valuation days of the technology and training remains the most common defense application
of VR. Such environments allow users to experience realistic situational training
UAVs (for example, battlefields, submarines, aircraft) in a safe environment. VR creates
Training opportunities highly engaging learning though its impact on training outcomes over other forms
Planning of training is uncertain.
Rehabilitation Beyond training, VR offers potential applications in operations planning, drone
piloting, rehabilitation, vehicle operation, and remote the monitoring and control of
facilities and equipment (that could be replicated in virtual reality). For example,
the Norwegian army has prototyped an Oculus Rift controller for tank driving.
Mass-market acceptance (or rejection) of consumer will impact VR costs.
Main actors Intelligent Decisions, Sony, Facebook (Oculus VR), EON Reality, Microsoft,
Samsung, Magic Leap, HTC, Virtalis, Valve.
Recommendation Immersive VR is an important technology to observe, though its overall impact on
the defense and security sector is likely to be one of incremental improvements
Observe within certain applications than of transformation.
Try Although some military training has used immersive VR technologies for many
years, developments in consumer electronics are creating a new generation of
high-performance, low-cost VR devices that can be repurposed for a variety of
defense and security application uses. Although training is an established and
likely worthwhile application to adopt, defense and security organizations should
also evaluate and try other potential applications of immersive VR.
Consumer acceptance of VR is important to “observe,” as it will determine the
future path of this technology area.
 25.08.2015

Intelligent Autonomous Swarms

Summary An Intelligence Autonomous Swarm (IAS) is a number of entities communicating

and coordinating among themselves, autonomously, to achieve an objective. The
Robotics objects in the swarm could be identical or different to each other, perform the same
IAS tasks or different tasks and could operate with a ‘mother ship’, which coordinates
the swarm, or independently.
IASs exist in nature (ants or bees for example) and in recent years progress has
been made to develop artificial swarms that function in a similar way.
Investigations have been made into swarms on land, sea and in the air and in
entities from large to small but the technology is still immature for most
applications due to limits in power supply, communication technology and true
autonomy. Most demonstration examples of artificial swarms have used semi-
autonomous or human directed systems whereas fully IASs have only been
conceptually demonstrated.
The military domain has seen examples of full-scale prototypes in recent years
and is the most likely sector to see first implementation of semi-autonomous IAS.
Other industries that will see their usage are likely to be agriculture, medicine and
entertainment.
Weaknesses Weaknesses include: A lack of true autonomy (systems are reliant on pre-
programming); Energy storage/endurance; Miniaturization. Many limitations are
also present in other autonomous systems—including drones.

Related fields Medical Nanobots, Artificial Intelligence, Portable Power, Deep Learning,
Nanoelectronics, Context-Aware Computing, MEMS, Smart Dust Sensors, Laser
communications, Autonomous Vehicles.
Civil Uses Civil applications could include capturing information from difficult-to-access
locations (volcanoes, deep sea trenches or disaster zones). Healthcare/agriculture
will likely adopt the technology to fight infections/look after crops, respectively.
Trends & Current research is being directed towards the intelligent interactions of entities
Challenges within the swarm to achieve collective objectives. This is partly due to it being an
interesting academic problem but it also has importance in general AI research.
Miniaturization However, this focus may hold back the development of more rudimentary swarm
Rudimentary applications for data gathering and collective action.
General When IASs are achieved, the technology has huge potential to revolutionise our
 valuation world. Swarms could be deployed to perform a huge number of activities that
current technology cannot, most notably autonomous monitoring of conditions and
Conceptual automatic deployment of responses to changes in conditions. A good example is
Emerging medical nanobots that live within the human body and react to infections as they
occur and deploy immediate responses. Another shorter-term example is the use
of an IAS to monitor crop production, over a huge area, and automatically deploy
nutrients, water or pesticides to optimise crop production. However, true IASs are
still very immature (Technology Readiness Level 2-3) with semi-autonomous
systems being much further along in development (Technology Readiness Level 4-
5)
Defence IAS could be critical in defence and security. The technology will allow for
valuation persistent wide area surveillance, targeted attack and area denial by using devices
small and large. Critical difficulties to be overcome within surveillance are
Connected miniaturisation and power management of the devices used.
New battlefield The existing battlefield is already controlled and directed by large networks of
manned and unmanned assets and this will only grow as swarm artificial
intelligence improves. However, it is unlikely that true IAS will be used in military
operations in the next 10 years due to a continuing choice to place men in the loop
for command and control purposes.
Main actors University of Lincoln (UK), Harvard University, Carnegie Mellon University,
Sheffield Centre for Robotics, DARPA, University of Bristol, Tsinghua University.
Recommendation All stakeholders within the defense sector should observe developments in IAS.
The current low level of maturity means that real applications within the defense
Observe environment are still some time off. However, this is not the same story for semi-
autonomous intelligent swarms, which will be deployed for defense purposes much
sooner. Prototype swarm devices for reconnaissance have already been
developed and tested by the US Navy. As such, interested parties should try and
adopt these technologies where appropriate.
 25.08.2015

Internet of Things

Summary The Internet of Things (IoT) is a broad set of technologies and applications that
involve connecting objects other than conventional computing devices to the
Optimization Internet. Such connected objects may include wearable sensors, smart
Connecting objects thermostats, cars, industrial machines, and environmental sensors. Many more
Manufacturing examples of connected objects exist and connectivity is spreading quickly.
Sensors McKinsey estimate that IoT connections are growing at 15-20% annually and will
reach 26-30 billion objects in 2020 (from a base of 7 to 10 billion objects in 2013).
Networks
IoT technologies include hardware such as sensors, actuators and power sources,
networking technologies, and a wide-range of software technologies and products
(from sensor networking software to IoT application platforms). Applications are as
broad as the objects that they connect, but many involve collecting data from IoT
sensors, performing data analysis in the cloud, and providing feedback and
recommendations for improvements. Advanced IoT applications may also take
action (for example, automatically optimizing a machines operation).
Weaknesses Weaknesses include security (including personal privacy), energy management,
and device-level interoperability (for example, many IoT applications are vendor-
specific). Some IoT applications are more novelties than useful products.
Related fields Portable Power, Robotics, Industry 4.0, Pervasive Computing, Nanoelectronics,
Holodeck, Photovoltaic Transparent Glass, Laser Communications, Augmented
Reality, M E M S , 3D Memory Chips, Big Data, Predictive Crime Prevention,
Nanomaterials, Stealth & Camouflage, Medical Nanobots, Artificial Intelligence,
Bionic Implants, Smart Materials, Context-Aware Computing, Smart Dust Sensors,
Sensors.
Civil Uses Consumer uses include health and activity monitoring, home automation, and
connected cars. Business uses include retail, warehousing and logistics,
monitoring and predictive maintenance for industrial machines and infrastructure.
Trends & Standards to enable interoperability between IoT devices is a significant challenge
Challenges and various standardization efforts are underway. Though the Institute of Electrical
and Electronics Engineers Standards Association has issued a number of IoT-
Security related standards, wider standards development has fragmented into industry
Standards groups. For example, Thread focuses on home automation and the Industrial
Big Data Internet Consortium focuses on industrial applications. Efforts involve competition
between different software ecoystems and outcomes are uncertain.
Industrial
Other current IoT research includes energy management (for example, standby
 power), cybersecurity for devices and data, and big-data analytics. Efforts to build
cloud-connected robots are also important in the longer-term.
General Many IoT applications are commercial or near-to commercial. Samsung already
valuation sells many connected consumer products and says that every product it sells will
connect to the internet by 2020. General Electric (GE) has built monitoring and
Rapid Growth analyzing data from its sensor-equipped machinery and related processes into a
Commercializing billion-dollar business. Cisco estimates that over 100 new Internet connections
(people, processes, data, and things) occur every second.
Rapid growth of IoT seems likely and is expected by most analysts and vendors.
However, lack of standards, security issues, and applications that deliver limited
value could all temper IoT growth. Current trends suggest that IoT developments
will be application specific (for example, home automation, industrial monitoring,
connected vehicles) and IoT-adoption speed is likely to vary between these
various application areas.
Many IoT opportunities require manufacturers to create new software and service
businesses—sometimes a challenge for companies used to manufacturing only
physical products. Many manufacturers need to build or acquire software and
service capability, and learn to navigate the pitfalls of the software business
(security, privacy, support, upgrades and more).

Defence Although the term “Internet of Things” is relatively new to many defence and
valuation security organizations, these organizations have been using IoT-related
technologies for many years. Networked planes, land vehicles, weapons, and
Monitoring equipment routinely collect and share data. Autonomous technologies and
Cyberwarfare surveillance systems are often reliant on network connectivity. Advances in
Networked Systems networking and sensor technologies create the potential of equipping every
military asset (including soldiers) with connectivity. Further, sensor networks
(including smart dust) create the potential of situational monitoring of
environments. Many military IoT applications are likely to rely on private networks
rather than the open Internet (though some less sensitive applications may utilize
standard cloud systems).
IoT developments are likely to change the landscape for cyberwarfare. For
example, military organizations may help defend connected infrastructure such as
power grids, pipelines, and manufacturing plants, against cyberthreats. Similarly,
security organizations may help defend connected transportation and healthcare
systems against cyberterrorism threats.
Main actors Apple, Boeing, IBM, Intel, G E , Raytheon, Google, Lockheed Martin, Samsung,
BAE Systems, Cisco.
Recommendation IoT is a current technology within the defense and security sector, with significant
potential for expansion into new application areas. Developments in the industrial
Adopt IoT and in consumer IoT applications are likely to drive down device costs and
Try create new connectivity solutions that can be repurposed for military applications.
In addition, IoT growth in civil applications is changing the landscape for
cyberwarfare. For these reasons, IoT is a critical technology to try and, in some
cases, adopt.
 25.08.2015

Lab on a Chip

Summary Systems vary greatly in what they integrate on the chip level and what they treat as
a peripheral. Lab on a chip (LoC) systems feature micrometer-scale reaction
LoC chambers, channels, and sometimes pumps manufactured using techniques and
Microfluidics substrates borrowed from MEMS and microfluidic research. Substrates include
MEMS traditional semiconductors as well as glass, ceramics, metals, and PDMS.
DNA Because of their small size, LoC systems require lower fluid volumes to operate
and offer faster analysis. For example, whereas DNA chips provide a large volume
of data often with tens of thousands of DNA spots, many applications seek
compact, rapid testing of only a dozen DNA markers. LoC systems downscale the
sample preparation, DNA amplification, and DNA identification to a single chip to
allow for compact and rapid testing.
Weaknesses LoC devices tend to be single use, expensive, and often require large peripherals
to operate. Designing LoC devices is difficult, as liquids behave differently on small
scales.
Related fields Portable Power, Nanoelectronics, DNA Analysis, Microfluidics, MEMS, Smart Dust
Sensors, 3D Memory Chips, Bio Authentification, Chemical Analysis, Drug
Delivery, Genetic Engineering, Nanomaterials.
Civil Uses Civil uses for LoC technology are primarily portable rapid diagnosis of diseases
and chemical concentrations. Similar technologies are used in drug discovery and
manufacturing.
Trends & Because LoC devices are disposable, cost remains an issue for many potential
Challenges applications. Many institutions are focusing research on inexpensive substrates as
a method to combat costs, and paper microfluidics has seen substantial headway.
Cost reduction Other research focuses on expanding the capabilities of LoC systems, especially
Improving Capabilities improving the number of diseases they can detect.
Low-cost substrates
LoC systems are relatively mature and have seen substantial industry
General consolidation, although there is still substantial potential for improvement in the
valuation technology. LoC technologies may enable handheld rapid analysis of chemical and
biological agents, or rapid blood tests capable of identifying a host of possible
Testing ailments in a single test. Plasmonics, a complementary rapid analysis technology,
Mature has seen some progress towards viability in the past few years, and could begin to
reach its promised potential within the next few years. Because of the nature of the
diagnostics market, it is difficult for new companies to enter and compete, unless
 they partner with an incumbent company.
Defence Primary opportunities for the defence industry lie in the rapid diagnosis of
valuation diseases. This can be particularly important when testing troops, refugees, or
others in military care to prevent outbreaks. Rapid diagnosis becomes especially
Rapid Diagnosis important when troops venture into areas where dangerous diseases are rampant,
the same areas where much of the world’s conflict exists today. Theoretically, rapid
tests may be completed as units are en-route to base from a mission. Rapid
response and durability may be important to armed forces, and these
organizations are less price sensitive than civil organizations.
Main actors «empty»
Recommendation The LoC market is largely mature, but interested parties who are not directly
involved with the technology may be able to engage with the market by partnering
Observe with a startup or existing diagnostic company to design and distribute, for example,
Try rapid diagnostic tests. In the defense sector, the stakeholder’s job would primarily
be as a systems integrator, ensuring that the devices have military-grade
readiness. Given the ease with which an incumbent diagnostic company may
design its own military-grade versions of its LoC tests, it may be unwise for
defense stakeholders to directly enter this market. Trials of “off the shelf”
technology represents a viable route to adoption. However, the implications of this
technology could be significant for the defense sector and defense players should
definitely observe developments that could have a positive impact on the quick
diagnosis of diseases in remote environments.
 07.10.2015

Laser Communication / Free Space Optics

Summary Free space optical (FSO) communication (sometimes also referred to as optical
wireless communication or OWC) is a method of data transmission between two
Modulation locations that uses modulated visible (or near visible) light. Unlike radio
Optical wireless communications, which can be transmitted through and around objects, FSO
Communications requires a direct line of sight between the transmitter and receiver; this also
Line-of-sight means that FSO systems are difficult to intercept as any eavesdropper would have
to be positioned along the path of the laser beam.
FSO systems have been used to communicate between fixed locations, to
communicate with moving vehicles and aircraft, and to communicate with orbital
satellites. FSO systems typically use lasers as their light source, although some
systems have been trialed using high-brightness LEDs.
Weaknesses FSO systems are limited by atmospheric conditions and by requiring a direct line
of sight. Communicating with moving vehicles or aircraft requires sophisticated
tracking technology to maintain contact.
Related fields Internet service provision, Optical computing, Portable Power, Communications,
Nanoelectronics, Fiber optics, Internet of Things, Radio, Telecommunications,
Mobile networks, Swarms.
Civil Uses FSO can be used for satellite communication; urban telecommunications; rapid
network deployment, for disaster recovery; and private networks, as it is often not
regulated in the way radio frequencies are.
Trends & The key focus of research on FSO is increasing the effective range, which is
Challenges predominantly limited by atmospheric conditions. One option is to combine FSO
with a backup system such as a radio transmitter, for use in poor atmospheric
Amospherics conditions. Alternatively, researchers have looked at using error correction
Range algorithms and adaptive optics to compensate for atmospheric disruption. Other
Algorithms approaches include using multiple beams or multiple communication paths to
eliminate errors via redundancy or to use more powerful lasers when weather
Error reduction
conditions are not conducive.
General Unreliability is a key factor in the technology not achieving wider acceptance. At
valuation present optical fibre and radio communications offer more robust solutions for
most purposes that require reliable year-round all-weather telecoms.
Immature The future development of FSO is likely to hinge on niche applications. For
Convenience example, initial tests using FSO for communicating with satellites has yielded
 Secure encouraging results. University researchers have investigated FSO as an
alternative to WiFi, achieving data transfer rates of over 100Gbps in laboratory
settings.
FSO is also relatively secure, unlike radio transmissions, which can be readily
intercepted—line of sight requirements add an additional level of security. This
also means that FSO could be employed without it being apparent to third party
observers.
The transmission of data through free space also means that a network using FSO
could be set up relatively quickly and cheaply, for example in densely built-up
areas or as part of a response to natural disasters. FSO is one of several wireless
transmission technologies being considered for both governmental and private
large area networks such as Facebook’s internet.org and Google’s Project Loon
that aim to provide internet access to remote areas via a network of high-altitude
drones or low orbit satellites.
Defence The difficulty in intercepting, or even detecting the presence of FSO
valuation communications makes it potentially very useful for military communications. In
addition, the absence of any cabling requirements enables the rapid deployment of
Rapid deployment a telecoms network. The use of visible light frequencies also means that it is not
Communications prone to electromagnetic interference or radio jamming. Combining ground-based
Reliability FSO transceivers with unmanned aerial vehicles as relay stations could
dramatically increase the effective range of an FSO network.
Secure
As with civilian applications the unreliability of FSO due to poor weather conditions
is a limiting factor. In addition, military use may include communicating with
moving objects such as aircraft or ships; under which circumstances maintaining
contact requires sophisticated tracking technology and the difficulty of maintaining
contact grows exponentially with distance.
Main actors Tesat (Airbus), IEEE, DARPA, LightPointe Communications, AOptix, Fog Optics.
Recommendation The current state of FSO technology faces substantial barriers to widespread
adoption but is useful for niche applications.
Observe Defense players should observe developments that can increase the range and
Try reliability of FSO transmission such as adaptive optics. Attention should also be
paid to advances in potentially synergistic technologies such as targeting/guidance
systems and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs or drones).
Difficulties in establishing a reliable network mean that in many instances
conventional telecoms technologies such as radio and fiber optics will offer
advantages. It is unlikely that FSO will supplant these technologies and is more
likely to progress in parallel in the short to medium term. Improvements in
signaling distance may lead adoption in satellite communications and local area
networking applications.
 18.09.2015

Machine Learning

Summary Machine learning is a class of software systems that generate behaviors by

learning from examples, or by trial and error, rather than by rule-based
Statistics programming. For example, a programmer creating rule-based translation
Software software would need to define each explicit step in a translation process the
Big Data software should perform (parse the sentence, examine dictionaries, and so forth)
Algorithms whereas a machine-learning translation system would build its own translation
model by examining patterns in existing translations.
Neural networks
Examples of machine learning algorithms include neural networks, genetic
algorithms, Hidden Markov Models, and statistical clustering. Some approaches
require labeling of training data (e.g. “English text”, “German text”) and other
approaches can learn from unlabeled data.
Most machine-learning approaches are not new but have benefitted from the rapid
growth of data (big data) and from increasing processing power. In 2011, Google’s
Chief Scientist said “We don’t have better algorithms than anyone else; we just
have more data.” Machine learning is already somewhat common in civil and
military software but its capabilities and application areas are growing as available
data and computing power continue to accelerate.
Weaknesses Vulnerability to errors and biases in input data (garbage in, garbage out), slow
initial learning processes, and programmers are often unable to explain why
specific inputs produce specific outputs.
Related fields Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Computing, Analytics, Context-Aware Computing,
Statistics, Computer Vision, Big Data, Predictive Crime Prevention, Emotion
Tracking.
Civil Uses Current applications include online advertising, fraud detection, spam detection,
speech recognition, image recognition, predictive policing, automated financial
trading, logistics optimization, and personal cloud assistants (for example, Siri).
Trends & Much current research interests focuses on “deep learning”. Deep learning is
Challenges typically implemented as neural networks that learn from data in “layers”,
identifying high-level features before narrowing down on detail.
Deep Learning Approaches to unsupervised learning are developing well (unsupervised learning
Algorithms avoids the overhead of people having to label training data). Developing machine-
Unsupervised learning algorithms that can adapt and learn new tasks quickly is also under
Learning investigation.
 No realistic solution to the “garbage in, garbage out” problem exists and this
limitation requires programmers to implement machine learning carefully.
General Particularly in civil applications, machine learning has already proved itself
valuation superior to rule-based programming for applications requiring pattern recognition
or judgment. As a result, machine learning has become the de-facto standard for
Trust building intelligent software (most recent innovations in artificial intelligence rely on
Rapid development machine learning).
Even greater progress is likely in the future. Global data is currently increasing by
around 40 percent a year, and machine learning systems generally improve with
more data. Researchers are making steady progress with new machine learning
techniques, but most progress will come through the growing availability of large
data sets and plentiful computing resources allowing programmers to get better
results from existing machine learning algorithms.
How far machine learning will expand into new domains depends partly on
technical progress (see Present Weaknesses, above) and partly on the attitudes of
system designers. For example, whether designers are happy to entrust the
outcomes of a system to probabilistic reasoning or whether they require explicit
rules.
Defence Machine learning already has a wide-variety of important defense and security
valuation applications. For example, using missile-tracking data, machine-learning software
can predict missiles’ paths to guide intercept missiles. Many pattern recognition
Autonomous algorithms are useful for processing satellite, drone, and other imagery, and for
Missile-tracking identifying likely threats. Indeed, machine learning is the leading approach to
Robotics automating image analysis. Machine learning can also guide military robots and
other autonomous systems and can play a role in optimizing military logistics.
Image analysis
Much military research focuses on applying machine learning to robotics and other
Drones
autonomous systems (for example, creating robots that can adapt to changing
Satellite conditions and learn new ways of achieving their objectives), though in practice
machine learning is a potential aid to any defense and security task that involves
making a judgement based upon large amounts of data. Civilian organizations are
starting to use machine-learning algorithms to aid recruitment processes.
Main actors Digital Reasoning, IBM, Raytheon, Google, Lockheed Martin, Microsoft, Sentient
Technologies, BAE Systems.
Recommendation Machine learning is the leading approach to building software that makes
judgments based on large amounts of data and is a proven technology, even as a
Adopt component within safety-critical systems (for example, missile interception).
Try Because data is growing rapidly, and because machine learning generally
improves with more data, rapid progress in machine learning is likely. Because of
this growing capability, and because of the wide-variety of important applications,
machine learning is a critical technology for across a wide range of industries,
including the defense sector.
 04.10.2015

Medical Nanobots

Summary Microscopic devices that can enter human bodies and autonomously perform
therapeutic tasks, provide treatments, or gather data remain very immature.
Drug delivery Generally, medical nanobots resemble true robots in name only—in practice,
Microscopic devices these microscopic devices need to be so small to travel through the human body
Microorganisms that they cannot contain sophisticated control systems or even perform more than
Propulsion one or two actions. The simplest nanobots are little more than a microscopic
structure that carries out some kind of physical task, such as opening to release a
drug or attaching to tissues or pathogens. Simple artificial, as well as biologically
based devices—such as modified proteins or microorganisms—can be useful in
this kind of rudimentary role, although the term nanobot can be misleading label
for devices that are little more than a complex particle. More sophisticated
nanobots may be able perform a few functions, such as propelling themselves to a
particular location and performing targeted action upon arrival. Researchers hope
to eventually produce nanobots that more closely resemble their full-size artificial
counterparts by employing actual electronics and logic systems to take intelligent
autonomous action in the body, but such devices remain little more than a
theoretical concept at this time.
Weaknesses Weaknesses include controllability and survivability of nanobots in complex
biological systems as well as general difficulties in manufacturing functional
devices at such small scales.
Related fields Bionic Implants, Nanotechnology, Medical devices, Pharmaceuticals, Chemical
engineering, R o b o t i c s , Genetic engineering, M E M S , Synthetic biology,
Micromachining, Nanofabrication.
Civil Uses Medical treatments, health monitoring, biological research, veterinary medicine,
therapy, environmental services.
Trends & Current research focuses both on creating nanobots to perform novel targeted
Challenges action inside humans and developing propulsion methods for the microscopic
devices. Examples of actions that nanobots can take inside bodies vary from semi-
Regulations passive acts of delivering drugs by either implanting into tissues or opening to
Device design release treatments at specific locations to more active physical actions such as
Nanofabrication heating up to open a temporary hole in the blood-brain barrier. Research into
propulsion methods includes work on swimming or crawling-like movement
Propulsion
controlled by external electromagnetic fields or by inserting various chemicals into
the body, as well as the development of self-propulsion methods—one recent
 project from the University of California tested a self-propelled nanobot that used a
reaction between zinc and stomach acid to produce gas bubbles that successfully
drove the device into the stomach linings of mice.
General Medical nanobot technology is at an early stage in development and will likely take
valuation many years before becoming available for human use. Furthermore, the prospects
for advanced devices to actually operate semi-intelligently inside the human body
Immature remain purely theoretical—numerous improvements on micro- and nano-scale
Theoritical power systems, computational systems, and physical devices will be needed for
Safety any true internal robot to become practical.
Nevertheless, progress suggests that the fundamental concept of using nanobots
in medicine is feasible. Constituent technologies like targeted drug delivery and
propulsion using internal or external mechanisms have already worked in labs, and
rudimentary nanobot technology could begin to see human tests in the next stages
of research.
Other obstacles besides the feasibility of operation will affect the implementation of
medical nanobots. Some otherwise functional nano-devices could prove to be
unsafe in the human body, for example, and any signs of danger from one
particular nanobot design could tarnish the reputation of all varieties in public
opinion. Passing regulatory approval will likely be difficult as well since the
technology has no precedent. Competition from traditional pharmaceuticals could
also challenge nanobots, especially if traditional medicines remain either as
effective or lower-cost.
Defence Although medical nanobot technology is not currently mature enough to provide
valuation significant new treatments in defense applications, at least in any capacity that
exceeds its utility in treating civilian patients, as early adopters it could find use in
Health defense markets earlier than civilian markets. Additionally, military research on
Detection micro-robotics and nanotechnology could prove to be synergistic to medical
Weapons research on nanobots. More distant—but possibly more impactful—implications of
medical-nanobot-technology development could be threats from hostile parties.
Examples could include nanobot-deploying biological weapons or covert
monitoring and surveillance of individuals using networked nanobots. Countering
these threats might be incredibly difficult because of the detection challenges, as
well as the potential lack of countermeasures or treatments for nanobot infections.

Main actors University of Montreal, Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems, University of
California, ETH Zurich.
Recommendation Adopting practical medical nanobot technologies would be extremely difficult at the
current time considering that only a few successful devices have even been tested
Observe in research and development settings. However, monitoring nanobot technology
will be essential for maintaining awareness of any new developments in the field
and addressing emerging opportunities and threats. Additionally, initiating new
research endeavors could be beneficial—and even critical—for any player hoping
to have a stake in the development and use of medical nanobots. But because a
limited number of researchers and institutions have working knowledge of nanobot
development, partnering with existing developers will be essential.
 10.09.2015

MEMS

Summary MEMS are micrometer-scale electro-mechanical machines, manufactured using

lithographic processes adopted from the semiconductor industry. In fact, many
Consumer electronics
MEMS foundries use equipment previously employed in semiconductor foundries.
Sensing The biggest market for MEMS is sensing, including pressure sensors,
Lithography accelerometers, and gyroscopes. In recent years, MEMS sensors have seen
strong adoption rates in consumer electronics devices as enablers of new user
interfaces. MEMS sensors are generally superior to macro-scale sensors because
they are smaller, more durable, more accurate, consume less power, and are
inexpensive to produce in bulk—usually sold for a few cents a piece. Non-sensor
uses of MEMS include micromachined radio-frequency components (RF MEMS),
switches, timing devices, optical image stabilizers, micro-pumps, and inkjet and 3D
print heads.
Although some MEMS processes today employ nanoscale particles as sensing
elements, nanoscale features in MEMS will become much more common over the
coming decade, at which point MEMS may compete with devices manufactured
using exotic technologies such as molecular manufacturing and self-assembly.
Weaknesses MEMS manufacturing requires a very high initial investment, discouraging new
startups, and uses some materials not shared with semiconductors. MEMS
fabrication also has some limitations on manufacturing three-dimensional
structures.
Related fields Self-assembly, Solid-state microsensors, DNA sequencing, CMOS fabrication,
DNA origami, Molecular machining, NEMS/nanomachines.
Civil Uses MEMS already see use in vehicle safety systems, consumer electronics devices,
computer components, displays, and genetic testing. Future applications include
radiation-safe computation and micro-scale robotics.
Trends & The largest current trend in MEMS is rapid expansion into new markets and
Challenges devices, including watches, fitness trackers, headsets, remote controls, and
virtually any device that adopts “smart” functions. Many MEMS manufacturers and
New devices device makers are trying to improve sensor fusion between discreet sensors.
Sensor fusion Sensor fusion combines information from multiple disparate sensors to generate a
New markets more complete understanding of a device’s surroundings. Sensor fusion is of
particular interest to makers of virtual and augmented reality headsets, as well as
researchers interested in indoor navigation and simultaneous location and
mapping.
 General MEMS is a mature technology. MEMS sensors have not substantially changed in
valuation design for decades, and most innovation in the sensor area is in reducing costs
and improving accuracy through software via sensor fusion. The market for MEMS
Growing market sensors continues to grow through demand for smartphones, tablets, quantified
self devices, and virtual and augmented reality headsets. Some optical
technologies are competing against MEMS for generating position information, but
more often than not, MEMS are paired with competing technologies through
sensor fusion, simply because the cost of MEMS components is so low and the
benefits of sensor fusion are great. Non-sensor MEMS applications have seen hit-
and-miss success, largely dependent on yield rates, especially for displays. The
MEMS market is likely to continue to grow in sensors (including microphones), but
non-sensor MEMS applications will remain a small market for quite some time.
Defence MEMS devices are important in the defense industry, but most of their uses have
valuation already been realized: through incorporation in navigation and safety systems in a
wide variety of vehicles. However, MEMS may find use in non-traditional
Communication applications relevant to the defense industry. For example, RF MEMS may help
devices miniaturize communication devices for espionage, or allow systems to change
Mature technology frequencies to avoid jamming. Primitive MEMS computers that are highly radiation
Navigation resistant may be important for defense in controlling basic but essential functions
such as altitude control in aircraft or reactor control in nuclear power plants, where
radiation and electronic warfare risks may compromise traditional computers-and
therefore human lives.
Main actors Freescale, STMicroelectronics, InvenSense, B o s c h , Analog Devices, Texas
Instruments.
Recommendation MEMS devices are already in use in a variety of defense assets, and sensor fusion
software is often included at the package level by foundries. MEMS sensors may
Observe find useful implementation in distributed surveillance via mesh networks. However,
Adopt the design of the sensors themselves, as well as their sensor fusion algorithms, is
Try best left to incumbent manufacturers. Relatively novel use of MEMS technology,
such as RF MEMS and MEMS computers, may be worth observing closely or
trying, as the technologies are nearing commercialization and may provide
substantial benefits to defense.
 19.09.2015

Nanobiotechnology

Summary Nanobiotechnology is the convergence of nanotechnology and biology.

Nanotechnology is an area encompassing research and technology developments
Nanotechnology involving structures typically 1 nanometer to 100 nanometers in length in at least
Biological systems one direction. Biology is a very broad and fundamental field, which means that the
Pharmaceuticals definition of nanobiotechnology encompasses a wide range of technologies.
Nanomaterials Generally, the fundamental principle behind nanobiotechnology is the interaction of
nanotechnologies with biological systems. However, nanobiotechnology can also
involve the combination of biological molecules with nanotechnology to create new
systems and devices, or even the exploitation of nano-sized biological molecules
to create new technologies. The use of microorganisms to create nanoparticles is
also a part of the nanobiotechnology field.
Simple examples of the implementation of nanobiotechnologies include the use of
titanium-dioxide and zinc-dioxide nanoparticles to improve the effectiveness of
sunscreens. Although potential growth in cosmetics exists, the disruptive element
of nanobiotechnology is arising in pharmaceuticals. The pharmaceutical industry
provides nearer-term market opportunities through the development of developing
more effective and targeted drug-delivery mechanisms, and introducing properties
—such as controlled release—that enhance drugs’ efficacy and safety. Other
research—typically from universities and small companies—is seeking to exploit
nanobiotechnologies for use in the materials and sensors industries.
Weaknesses The main difficulty facing nanobiotechnology is the lack of knowledge about its
possible harmful effects on health and the environment. The accuracy and ability
of manufacturing techniques could limit nanobiotechnology.
Related fields Medical Nanobots, Nanotechnology, Pharmaceuticals, Portable Power, Smart
Materials, Environmental Management, Bio Authentification, Biologically Extended
Senses, Home Care, Biotechnology.
Civil Uses Advanced drug delivery, diagnostics, building materials, cosmetics, research tools,
DNA sequencing, detergent, anti-microbial surfaces, biodegradable electronics,
drug development, controlled-release systems, odor elimination.
Trends & Pharmaceuticals will be the first major industry on which nanobiotechnologies have
Challenges a disruptive impact. Although achieving regulatory approval is difficult, the life-
saving possibilities of the drugs will likely outweigh their potential toxic side effects.
Testing Pharmaceuticals will likely help to pave the way for the use of nanobiotechnologies
Understanding in other industries by advancing the knowledge and understanding of
 Regulations nanobiotechnologies and developing regulatory frameworks. Currently, the lack of
Toxicity understanding of the potential threats from nanobiotechnologies is a major barrier
to commercialization and has resulted in cautious regulations. However, signs
suggest that regulatory authorities want to encourage the growth of the
nanobiotechnology field.
General The cosmetics and personal-care industry has long been a proponent and early
valuation adopter of nanotechnology to develop products—such as deodorants and
toothpaste—with improved properties. After cosmetics, the most mature use of
Standards nanobiotechnology is found in the pharmaceutical industry. Some manufacturing
Breakthroughs processes and designs for, for example, drug-delivery systems have become
Consumer standardized and dominant, which suggests a certain degree of maturity. However,
since the first “nanodrug” achieved approval from the US Food and Drug
Administration in 1995, few other similar drugs have become commercially
available. Nanobiotechnology as a whole is fairly immature. Thus, the availability of
nanobiotechnologies is low. Regulations surrounding nanotechnologies—
particularly if they are likely to come into contact with humans—are often strict.
Establishing safety standards will be key to the success of nanobiotechnologies.
They offer the potential to vastly improve many common products, but are in
competition with more typical technologies that offer incremental improvements at
vastly lower costs.
Defence Nanobiotechnologies could find use as an important enabling component for other
valuation defense opportunities. For example, nanobiotechnologies could help facilitate the
interaction between human-augmentation devices and the human body. These
Heath nanobiotechnologies could be hugely significant if they are the only means of
Biothreat making these defense opportunities viable. Some nanobiotechnologies in their own
Structural materials right could find use in the defense sector. For example, nanocellulose has a
Sensors Young’s modulus similar to Kevlar. The lightness of nanocellulose and its
abundant source material (cellulose) may make it a desirable alternative to Kevlar.
Weapons
Nanocellulose has also been shown to encourage wound healing.
Nanobiotechnologies also offer opportunities in biothreat detection and prevention.
Nanobiotechnology sensors could find use in the early detection of biothreats and
chemical weapons, with the possibility of relaying real-time data. However,
nanobiotechnologies are a biothreat in themselves, offering up the possibility of
biological weapons that persist in the body for longer periods of time.
Main actors Johns Hopkins Institute for Nanobiotechnology, Nanoscience Diagnostics,
CelluForce, Laboratory for Soft Bioelectronic Interfaces (EPFL), Innventia, Nucryst
Pharmaceuticals, Oxford Nanopore Technologies.
Recommendation Given the overall immaturity of the area, beware hype. Many small companies are
involved in nanobiotechnology and will want to say their technology is game
Observe
changing. Although their technology could be significant, it is worth bearing hype in
Try mind while observing the progress of nanobiotechnology. Monitoring the
regulations concerning nanotechnology is also important because they are likely to
impact the rate of progress in nanobiotechnology and the applications in which it
can find use.
 19.09.2015

Nanoelectronics

Summary The field of nanoelectronics can be defined as the use of materials and processes
with features smaller than 100 nanometers to create structures with useful
Materials electronic properties. Decreasing dimensions in electronic devices has a long
Nanotechnology history of delivering cost and performance improvements. As the scale decreases
Manufacturing to the nano level, new and enhanced material properties can arise because of
quantum-size effects, interface phenomena, and very high surface-to-volume
ratios. The standard top-down manufacturing processes that currently find use in
the semiconductor industry represent only one option for fabricating nanoscale
electronic components and devices. Indeed, such lithographic methods are too
expensive for many applications. As such, solution-based nanoparticle growth
methods, nanoimprint technology, and molecular self-assembly will become
increasingly important for the future creation of novel nanoelectronic materials and
structures.
Nanoelectronics will have an impact on almost every industry because electronic
devices and systems are becoming increasingly pervasive. Although information
technology and consumer electronics industries have already felt the impact of
nanoelectronics through applications such as enhanced memory storage, and will
continue to do so through a “flexible electronics revolution”, new nanodevices are
also set to heavily influence the future of a wide number of industries—including
energy, lighting, and biomedicine.
Weaknesses Further reductions in scale through the use of optical lithography is becoming
prohibitively expensive. Many bottom-up alternatives (such as self-assembly
techniques) are currently too immature to make a significant impact.
Related fields Quantum computing, Biomedical, Integrated circuits, Organic electronics, Energy
storage, Photovoltaics, Photonics, Lithography, Nanofabrication, Nanomaterials.
Civil Uses Nanoelectronics are already widespread in civil applications. Examples include:
memory technology, interconnects, energy storage, biomedical applications,
displays, photovoltaics, sensors, lighting, transparent conductive applications
(touchscreens), and flexible electronic applications.
Trends & Improving top-down fabrication techniques to enable further reductions in the size
Challenges of structures is becoming increasingly challenging, both technically and
economically. Photonic computing, quantum computing, next-generation materials,
Materials and bottom-up techniques are under study but are relatively immature and will not
 Fabrication be in a position to challenge silicon-based technology in the near- to medium-
future. However, graphene, and other atomically thin materials, are set to have a
large impact on the electronics industry over the coming decade and will enable
many flexible and rollable devices and applications. Product reliability is currently
the key barrier to the commercialization of flexible electronics.
General Nanoscale materials and structures give players within the integrated circuit
valuation industry access to electronic properties that would be otherwise unattainable. This
sector of the industry is set to undergo a period of sustained growth as
Materials technologies gradually mature and begin to find use in commercial applications.
Emerging Semiconducting nanoparticles—or “quantum dots”—represent the perfect example
of nanomaterial research recently maturing to find use in the electronics industry.
The materials were discovered in the 1980s but are only now beginning to find
application in LCD televisions—improving the quality of the color palette to levels
previously only achieved with OLED displays and without significantly increasing
costs. Other materials find themselves at different levels of commercial maturity
within the industry. In addition to quantum dots, other key materials include silver
and copper nanoparticle inks for conductive applications, carbon nanotubes,
metallic nanowires, conductive polymers, and graphene (alongside other two-
dimensional materials such as molybdenum disulphide, silicene, tungsten
diselenide, and boron nitride). Some health and environmental concerns
surrounding the use of some nanomaterials (cadmium-containing quantum dots
being a prime example) in the electronics industry do exist. However, any
concerns are not as great as within the food or cosmetics industries.
Defence The ubiquity of nanomaterials and nanoscale structures within the integrated
valuation circuit industry makes the field of nanoelectronics of the utmost importance to the
defense industry. All electronic devices currently in use in the military currently
Electronics contain nanoscale structures of some description—meaning that this profile area
Energy already underpins huge swathes of defense technology. The importance of
Detection nanoelectronics is only set to increase as novel nanomaterials enable next-
Sensors generation applications. For example, advanced communication systems, high
performance sensors (chemical/infrared), energy-harvesting applications, and
wearable devices/textile-integrated electronics will be of particular importance to
the defense sector in the coming decades.
Main actors imec, Western Digital, Sandisk, IBM, GMZ Energy, Hewlett Packard, Seagate,
B A S F, QD Vision, Intel, Honeywell, Thinfilm, Samsung, Hitachi, Cambrios,
OCSiAl, AMD.
Recommendation Within the technology area as a whole, several materials and techniques are at
different stages of development—meaning that stakeholders within the sector
Observe
have the opportunity to simultaneously apply actions that come under the
Adopt categories of Observe, Try, and Adopt. Nanoelectronics components for military-
Try grade devices can often be sourced directly from commercial players because
many products already perform to the standards required for defense applications.
In other cases, more specialist, high-performance equipment can be developed in-
house, in collaboration with academic/government research laboratories, or with
industrial players with specific expertise.
 04.10.2015

Nanomaterials

Summary Nanomaterials are materials that have dimensions or features between 1 and 100
nanometers and that possess unique properties as a result of these dimensions. At
Materials this scale, gravity no longer plays an appreciable role and other forces—such as
Nanotechnology electrostatic interactions—tend to dominate. Factors such as size, shape and even
Electronics the nature of the surrounding material govern the properties of nanomaterials.
Energy Nanomaterials have the potential to outperform conventional materials in
Consumer practically every sense. They exhibit enhanced mechanical and electrical
characteristics as well as unique optical and thermal properties. These astonishing
properties mean that nanomaterials have the potential to enable game-changing
developments in almost all industrial sectors and address a variety of commercial
needs. Indeed, nanomaterials already pervade our everyday lives to an extent that
many people do not fully appreciate—finding widespread use in the electronics
industry, the health sector, the production and storage of renewable energy, a wide
variety of consumer goods, the construction industry, and the automotive sector.
Research in this field is extremely fast moving but the “nanorevolution” is still in its
infancy.
Weaknesses Health fears, public perception (hype and concern), and increasingly strict
regulations could limit commercial applications. High costs in developing materials
and scaling up manufacture could also pose barriers to commercialization.
Related fields Nanobiotechnology, Integrated circuits, Nanoelectronics, Photovoltaics, Internet of
Things, Photovoltaic Transparent Glass, M E M S , Photonics, Nanofabrication,
Organic electronics, Energy storage, Catalysis, Smart Materials, Smart Dust
Sensors, Plasmonics, Self-Healing Materials, Lithography, Composites, Labs on
Chips.
Civil Uses Potential and actual applications are widespread: Cosmetics, touchscreen displays,
drug delivery systems, components in photovoltaics systems, food additives,
pigments, oil additives, high-strength polymer composites, polishing materials,
functional coatings, next-generation electronics.
Trends & Market demand for materials with advanced properties will ensure that research
Challenges into nanomaterials remains highly active. Key challenges currently involve
transferring proven technologies from research labs to the marketplace and the
Environmental development of cost-effective manufacturing processes for high volumes of
Commercialization material. In some cases lower cost alternatives are needed to ensure commercial
viability. Health and environmental concerns are also of high importance.
 Safety Nanotoxicity research is still relatively immature. Research into the potential
Toxicity negative health effects of exposure to some nanomaterials is necessary in order to
allay any safety concerns and improve the public perception of products that
contain nanomaterials.
General The real value proposition in the use of nanomaterials exists in the realization of
valuation superior material properties that could lead to novel applications. For example,
nanomaterials lie at the heart of flexible applications that could revolutionize the
Public perception consumer electronics industry. The market for nanomaterials is already relatively
Cost mature (worth several billion dollars per annum). However, each individual
Mature nanomaterial is at a different stage of development and should be considered to
have a distinct commercial trajectory. For example, hundreds of thousands of tons
of metal oxide particles are produced each year, while—although many are in
development—very few commercial applications for graphene exist at present.
Metal oxide nanoparticles and multiwall carbon nanotubes are approaching the
peak of their commercial potential and sales will plateau. However, many other
materials (such as graphene and other two dimensional materials, metallic
nanoparticles, single-walled carbon nanotubes, and quantum dots) are likely to see
sustained growth in the short- to medium-term future. An important risk to this
growth is the potential for a major health scare involving a nanomaterial. This could
have an adverse effect on the public perception of nanotechnology as a whole,
“tainting” the technology area, and making further commercialization increasing
difficult.
Defence High performance materials will always be of great interest within the defense
valuation sector and nanomaterials are likely to remain at the forefront of materials science
for the foreseeable future. Unlike with commercial uses of nanomaterials, absolute
Energy harvesting material properties are of more of a concern than cost for defense and security
Camouflage applications. Despite cost not being a key concern, problems with large-scale
Communications processing technologies and health and safety issues could still hold up the
development of military applications. Nanotechnology and nanomaterials are likely
High strength
to find use in a host of future defense and security applications. Potential
Medical applications include optical metamaterials (see Stealth Technologies & Dynamic
Camouflage), smart fabrics, textile-integrated electronics, wearable devices (see
Wearable Computing), high strength and lightweight nanocomposites (armor-
plating), next generation communication systems, energy-harvesting applications,
sensors (chemical weapons/infrared), anti-counterfeit measures, and battlefield
medical equipment (rapid healing of wounds).
Main actors IBM , Solvay, BASF, QD Vision, DARPA, NASA, Bayer MaterialScience, BAE
Systems, Evonik, Unidym, Dow Chemical, Samsung, DuPont.
Recommendation The field is relatively fast-moving, with major breakthroughs occurring on a regular
basis. All major research universities are engaging in nanomaterial-based research
Observe and some of the most impressive examples of research into advanced
Adopt nanomaterials are emerging from academia. Similarly, the commercial sector is
Try heavily involved in nanomaterials research and is leading the way in adapting
novel materials and technologies for consumer applications. It is extremely
important to keep abreast of major developments within this field.
 22.09.2015

Photovoltaic Transparent Glass

Summary Photovoltaic (PV) transparent glass is an emerging segment of the solar industry
that is advancing quickly and could enable more widespread use of PV-power
Perovskite solar cell generation. Leading PV materials that have the potential to be transparent include
Dye-sensitized solar organic solar cells, dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSC), and perovskite-based
cell systems. These solar cells achieve transparency by selectively harvesting non-
Organic solar cell visible portions of the solar spectrum, such as ultraviolet and near-infrared light,
Building-integrated while letting a high percentage of visible-light wavelengths pass through (unlike
photovoltaics conventional solar cells).
Several developers are working to commercialize thin, light PV transparent films
that can generate power on any clear surface such as windows or cell phone and
tablet displays. Examples include California-based Ubiquitous Energy, which is
scaling up a fully transparent, small-molecule organic solar film that allows up to
90% of visible light to pass through.
The application of transparent solar films on glass is particularly promising
because the glass industry has long been an integrator of solar-control window
film and lamination processes are well established.
Weaknesses Transparent solar cell efficiencies are low and difficult to improve because they
collect light from only part of the spectrum. New perovskite cells have higher
efficiencies but also stability challenges.
Related fields Vacuum-deposition and film-coating techniques, Nanoelectronics, Organic
electronics, Perovskite solar cells, Building-integrated photovoltaics, Glass
manufacture, Nanomaterials.
Civil Uses PV transparent glass can enable solar power generation on windows and other
surfaces of buildings and automobiles, and power generation and battery life
extension for portable and distributed electronic devices.
Trends & Research trends focus on improving transparent solar cell materials and
Challenges components to achieve commercially-acceptable efficiency, longevity, and cost.
Improving efficiency is critical to help lower costs, but transparent solar cells may
Reliability never achieve the efficiencies of conventional solar cells that can capture more
Efficiency light energy. Perovskite solar cell materials are an active field of research to
increase future power densities.
PV transparent film developers are establishing prototyping and pilot production
capabilities in preparation for commercialization. Many technologies are only semi-
transparent, which could limit their use, but tunable colors and variable
 transparency levels could also open up new PV design applications.
General Transparent PV products are still largely at the development and demonstration
valuation stage and are several years away from broad commercialization. Some underlying
PV material technologies, such as third-generation DSSCs, are already available
Flexible applications as opaque (non-transparent) solar cells. For example, G24 Power has
Building-integrated commercialized printed, flexible DSSCs on a limited basis for indoor applications.
applications Small-molecule organic solar cells are generally in an earlier stage, although firms
New markets such as Heliatek are expanding demonstrations of semi-transparent organic PV
films integrated with glass. High efficiency perovskite-based DSSCs might see
commercialization within five years from companies such as Oxford Photovoltaics.
Stability issues such as susceptibility to water damage could be a major barrier to
perovskite commercialization.
Third-generation solar cells still represent only a minute share of the overall PV
market in part because of strong competition from the dominant industry. Because
of their combination of transparency and energy generation, PV transparent glass
products may be able to access new markets in which conventional PV cannot
compete. New organic solar materials also have potential to be less expensive to
produce than conventional solar cells.
For all new PV transparent products, developers need to ensure their long-term
performance and material integrity, especially in building applications.
Defence Many defense organizations are already adopting a range of conventional PV
valuation systems to generate clean, sustainable, and low cost power and to lessen
dependence on traditional power generation and logistics.
Distributed sensors PV transparent glass widens the range of possibilities to generate solar power for
Communications military bases, vehicles, and field equipment, although these potential applications
still need development.
Transparent PV may be particularly useful to help power or charge proliferating
distributed communications and electronic devices (medical and environmental
monitoring equipment).
Main actors C S I R O , Oxford Photovoltaics, Dyesol, Brown University, E P F L , Ubiquitous
Energy, Michigan State University, University of Oxford, Heliatek, MIT.
Recommendation Transparent photovoltaics represent an enormous business opportunity for
startups developing technology in this sphere. For stakeholders in the defense
Observe sector, the area falls into an “Observe” category for the near term. The key
recommendation is to monitor PV transparent glass technology development,
reliability, and deployment in power-generation applications relevant to the
defense industry. The establishment of clear signposts that judge and indicate at
what point an interested party’s approach should shift from “Observe” to “Try”
would also be a particularly useful exercise. An example of such a signpost could
be the successful commercialization of products that can be tailored to specific
systems and equipment.
 19.09.2015

Portable Power

Summary Batteries have been the predominant portable power source for several decades.
Recently, Li-ion (lithium-ion) secondary (rechargeable) batteries have become
Energy harvesting virtually ubiquitous in higher-energy devices such as mobile phones, tablets, and
Batteries notebooks. Li-ion batteries are also seeing increasing use in high-power portable
Solar applications like power tools and small-scale applications like wearable devices
Electromagnetic and wireless sensors. Older secondary battery technologies still find use for some
industion applications, such as lead-acid cells for larger generator-replacement and NiMH
(nickel-metal hydride) cells for high-power applications. Additionally, primary
(disposable) cells are still a major power source for low-value devices and low-
power equipment.
Non-battery technologies occupy niche spaces in this market but are maturing into
more applications. For example, fuel cells, which use fuel to provide more energy
in a smaller and lighter space than batteries can provide, have been used as a
portable power source for some military and first-response groups for several
years and are now commercially available. Energy harvesting also has potential
for gathering low-level power from environmental sources like vibrations, heat
gradients, and particularly solar energy. Recent research also focuses on
standardizing short-range electromagnetic induction for wirelessly charging
electronics, as well as improving the range and efficiency of radio-frequency
wireless energy transfer.
Weaknesses Energy densities and charge speeds continue to be the most pressing issues in
portable applications—even Li-ion batteries take up too much space and do not
recharge very quickly.
Related fields Chemicals, Materials, Nanobiotechnology, Nanoelectronics, Energy storage,
Photovoltaics, Smart Materials, Nanomaterials.
Civil Uses Dramatic advancements in portable power technologies could open numerous new
opportunities such as longer-operating implantable and wearable devices, longer-
range and more powerful robotics, and overall smaller electronic devices.
Trends & Advances in Li-ion technologies continue as manufacturers reduce sizes, increase
Challenges charge speeds, and address safety and durability concerns. Performance
benchmarks for Li-ion cells, particularly energy density and price, continue to
Charge time improve at a steady pace. Next-generation battery technologies—such as silicon-
Energy Density based anodes, solid-state electrolytes, and simplified manufacturing—should
improve the capabilities of Li-ion and derivative battery cells. Still, physical
 Safety constraints on fundamental chemistries keep progress relatively slow compared to
Manufacturing other portable electronics technologies. Durability and safety of high-energy
infrastructure materials remain major obstacles—battery researchers must balance energy
densities with other parameters for their cells to have a chance at
Durability commercialization.
General Li-ion battery storage has reached a point of relative maturity and widespread
valuation adoption, with major manufacturers producing large volumes to keep costs as low
as possible. Increased demand could create battery or raw-materials scarcity as
Environmental more electric vehicles and grid-storage systems absorb manufacturing capacity.
Investment However, growth in demand has been matched by increased supply and no
Improving constraints exist at present. Other risks include the rare but dangerous possibility
of thermal runaway in large packs of battery cells, and environmental effects from
Mature
resource extraction and limited cell recycling.
Competition for batteries in portable power applications remains limited, with
technologies like fuel cells failing to become popular due to cost and convenience
constraints. Energy harvesting and wireless power transfer can supplement the
use of batteries in portable electronics, but low power levels and intermittent
availability of power make them more synergistic than competitive.
Defence Portable power technologies are particularly important to defense and security
valuation groups, to minimize weight and size of the equipment. High energy-density power
sources are also useful for security-related robots and unmanned aerial vehicles in
Robotics which power capacities limit range and endurance. Although many military
Low weight devices—particularly military analogs to civilian devices—use standard battery
Communications technologies, the requirement to reduce weight and increase endurance of various
Reliability equipment have led to support for new alternative technologies, including portable
fuel cells and energy harvesting devices. Defense groups have been some of the
Unmanned systems
early adopters of fuel cells technologies, and for many military applications the
Equipment benefits that portable fuel sources offer over batteries—including superior energy
density, light weight, and instant refueling—far outweigh the higher costs of the
technology.
Main actors Sony, Energizer, PM A , Samsung SDI, SFC Energy, Intelligent Energy, WPC,
BYD, Horizon Fuel Cell Technologies, Duracell, Panasonic, LG Chemical.
Recommendation Portable power technologies are at a maturity level to merit some observation and
some trials. Although radical technological leaps are unlikely to occur in this
Observe technology category, gradual changes mean that better and less-expensive
Adopt portable power sources regularly emerge.
Try Observing progress in battery technology can reveal the most impactful
developments in portable power. Lower-cost and higher-performance Li-ion cells
in particular would make the largest impact because most portable electronics
manufacturers already use Li-ion batteries.
Observing for major developments in alternative technologies such as fuel cells,
ultracapacitors, wireless power transmission, and energy-harvesting devices also
adds value because changes in these areas could potentially open new
opportunities and applications that battery improvements alone would not offer.
 25.08.2015

Predictive Crime Prevention

Summary Predictive policing is among the first applications of AI in e-government. Neural-

network security applications started to move into crime-prevention applications in
Big data the early 2000s. Currently, this area represents a prime example of an application
Artificial intelligence for big data approaches. Typically, software that analyzes crime databases helps
Risk police agencies decide how to assign resources. The software uses statistics
Bayesian about the geography of crime to create crime heat maps and risk terrains; it does
not predict specific crimes or identify criminals.
Prediction
Numerous sources provide descriptions of the underlying technology: PredPol
uses agent-based and Bayesian methods to create geographical profiles of
criminal behavior for early versions of its software. An IBM white paper on the
topic of predictive policing refers to machine learning. IBM is correlating past crime
data with other data, including weather, paydays, and big local events. The
company is also interested in integrating gunshot sensors and smart CCTV
cameras that look for signs of suspicious behavior. And the US government's
National Institute of Justice awarded a grant to the Chicago Police Department to
evaluate an approach to predictive policing that makes use of algorithms that are
similar to those in use for pattern matching in medical images.
Weaknesses Accuracy: Existing systems pinpoint neither exact crimes nor criminals. Legality: In
the future, people arrested as a result of predictive-policing software could
challenge grounds for arrest.
Related fields Internet of Things, Surveillance, Predictive analytics, Network analysis, Data
m o d e l i n g , Context-Aware Computing, Machine Learning, CCTV,
Telecommunications, Computer Vision, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Sensors,
Emotion Tracking, Neural networks.
Civil Uses Police agencies are already adopting and testing software that helps assign patrol
officers to high-crime areas.
Trends & Current systems—as described above—clearly have limitations. Current R&D
Challenges surrounds making use of new sources of data, to improve the accuracy of
predictive systems. (For instance, integrating video analytics.) In addition some
Accuracy forces have been investigating advanced profiling of individuals: In 2007, Scotland
Algorithm Yard announced plans to develop a database of potential murderers and rapists
Big data before they even commit any crime. Challenges include causation; data could be
able to predict where a crime will take place, but not why a crime will take place.
Legality
 Causation Remarkably, predictive crime prevention is already an active, in-use technology
Sensor fusion area—at least. However, one must remember that systems only create
predictions; effective crime prediction relies on using these predictions to create
General
useful actions. In combination with the use of intelligent policing, these seemingly
valuation small gains in predictive accuracy can result in significant crime reductions. US
Commercial authorities in many US cities have begun using CompStat, a data system created
by the NYPD that aids in the allocation of law-enforcement resources.
Legality
Competing technologies include human analysts, and some data has compared
Trials
the two approaches’ efficacy: In 2013, Kent Police in England reported 8.5% of
Evaluation street crime occurred within zones that PredPol's (Santa Cruz, California) software
identified, whereas only 5% of street crime occurred within the crime-prone areas
that human analysts identified. In Los Angeles, California, the corresponding
figures were 6% and 3%.
A clear warning exists: Convictions result from evidence, not statistical models.
Thus, predictive policing will likely join other AI-influenced practices in criminal
justice—namely, use of surveillance cameras (use of face-recognition software
occasionally contributes to solving crimes) and DNA identification (which relies on
Bayesian analysis).
Defence A strong overlap exists between defense, security, and policing. Sophisticated
valuation data-analysis tools are seeing more use in studies of criminal behavior, creating
many opportunities for systems providers and users. These systems are becoming
Interaction analysis important tools for security applications—and will likely enable many civil and
Behavior analysis military opportunities.
Terrorism Similar tools are already in use in fighting organized criminal and militia activities.
For example, Colombian prosecutors now use algorithms to create diagrams that
show the interactions between authorities (government officials and law-
enforcement agents) and drug-cartel members, identifying the people who connect
the legal and illegal worlds; such approaches could also prove useful in identifying
terrorists and terrorist cells, for example. Opportunities exist to use AI to help
security agencies solve important problems—for example, using speech-to-speech
translation and knowledge-discovery techniques (including semantic analysis) in
databases.
Main actors Carnegie Mellon University, IBM, PredPol, NYPD, LAPD, Scotland Yard.
Recommendation Predictive policing approaches have clear overlaps with security applications, and
in our opinion falls into the Try category.
Try At the very least, players in the defense sector should implement a project that
covers this area – for example, they could collaborate with external partners to test
a predictive system. However, use of any predictive system must go hand-in-hand
with a framework for effective implementation that also includes robust human
decision-making. Governments and individual police forces should try and,
depending on the results of studies, adopt next-generation predictive policing
methods as and when they reach maturity.
 19.09.2015

Quantum Computing

Summary Quantum computing (QC) refers to a set of proposed methods for achieving
accelerated computation (“speedup”) relative to the performance of conventional
Accelerated digital designs. Methods now in vogue exploit the properties of entanglement and
computation superposition to yield small systems of qubits that can express a much larger
Entanglement number of possible states than a comparable number of bits can express, and that
Qubit that rapidly evolve from an initial programmed state that represents a problem that
someone wishes to solve to a final state that in some sense represents the answer
to the problem. The programming, system evolution, and interpretation of the
response proceed in accord with the mathematics of quantum mechanics. Some
100 years of experimentation have confirmed that with no exceptions, that
mathematics corresponds to the probabilistic behavior of matter and energy at
small scales. In a number of the systems under investigation, qubits consist of a
collection of supercooled, superconducting Josephson junctions that interact with
one another but only minimally with the external environment. The challenges of
achieving such isolation are aggravated by need for human interfaces at input and
output; errors are inevitable (“decoherence”), thus error-correction schemes are
integrated into the algorithms that govern programming and interpretation of qubits.
Weaknesses Prevailing implementations of QC embody specific algorithms, not general-
purpose computers. Even for QC’s natural problem targets like dynamic systems
of particles, proof of speedup is weak and prospects are controversial.
Related fields Artificial intelligence (AI), Superconductors, Meteorology, Biomedicine, Aerospace,
Holodeck, Information technology (IT), Software development, Oceanography,
Context-Aware Computing, Machine Learning, Computer Vision, Cryptography,
High-performance computing, Emotion Tracking.
Civil Uses Successful QC implementations would benefit diverse research efforts including
design of aircraft, drugs, materials, and vehicles. Ideal implementation would
benefit any data center or web service, including intelligent user interfaces.
Trends & Progress reports continue to focus on scaling up the number of qubits in quantum-
Challenges annealing systems, improving the effectiveness and efficiency of error-correction
algorithms, and proving systems, which has been a special challenge recently.
Temperature Isolation of qubits from external influences such as temperature fluctuations and
sensitivity electromagnetic events during computation is difficult, and resulting needs for
Performance refrigeration imply the current roadmap is for data centers only. The process of
improvement correcting inevitable errors is more complex than in the corresponding case for
 Stability conventional computing, and resulting needs for redundancy increase the burden
Efficiency for researchers and developers of QC technologies.
Error reduction QC is an immature, high-risk, and potentially high-reward domain of research and
General development. One of its foremost advocates and experts, John Martinis remarked
valuation in 2014 that “It is still possible that nature just won’t allow it to work.” Replication
experiments sometimes undermine claims that quantum computing is useful, or is
Immature even occurring, though it undoubtedly occurs sometimes. Alex Selby, who
Uncertain authored some of the software that ETH Zurich used to undermine some such
Disruptive claims, said during 2014 that even when developers succeed in isolating 2048
qubits, conventional computing “may still be competitive”.
Although current trends emphasize a particular approach to QC (quantum
annealing), several alternative, competing QC implementations (such as quantum
gate arrays) are also under investigation. Beyond QC, the general domain of next-
generation high-performance computing has many competitors, the simplest being
increased exploitation of parallelism, use of graphics processor nodes, and use of
reconfigurable computers (FPGAs). Competitive domains of high-performance
computing whose risk profiles are rough matches for that of QC include
neuromorphic (`brainlike’) architectures and advanced analog computers (the two
fields partly overlap). Competing domains that are somewhat promising but
resource-starved include optical computing and spintronics. A wildcard among
wildcards, “Super Turing” architectures, sees minimal research funding.
Defence Both codebreaking and code construction are important potential applications for
valuation quantum computing; the technology would not necessarily confer asymmetrical
advantages to codebreakers. In fact resource availability may tend to favor large
Encryption organizations, much as today’s supercomputers are often government systems.
Vehicle design And use of QC could strengthen cryptography, not just weaken it. Even so,
Codebreaking adoption of QC could accelerate the eternal escalation of security measures and
countermeasures experienced by the full range of stakeholders, from individual
Stealth
users to international organizations. For aircraft and spacecraft design and
Prediction operation, any “more than Moore” technologies including QC could lead to
dramatic improvements in stealth and agility both in the aerobatic sense and in the
sense of mission versatility. Imaginably, intelligence communities could also exploit
such technologies for information superiority, specifically efforts to “connect the
dots”, collating public and secret information to automatically discover when
adversarial entities have both intention and resources to cause harms.
Main actors Planck Institute, I B M , D-Wave, U C S B , Microsoft, N A S A , C Q T, IQOQI, JQI,
CQC2T, ICFO, RQC, Google, IQC, NSA, Lockheed-Martin, JFLI, ETH.
Recommendation As part of a suite of technologies that aim to yield “more than Moore” rates of
computational progress, QC is among high-priority items to observe that also
Observe includes neuromorphic and advanced analog computing. With regard to advancing
the state of QC technology, stringent requirements for human and other resources
are likely to pose obstacles for new entrants. Forming a consortium (or perhaps
joining one such as JFLI or JQI) might also make advantageous use of research
leverage.
 06.10.2015

Self-Healing Materials

Summary Imagine cracks in damaged structures that close up on their own and dents that
spring back into their original shape, or systems that can eliminate defective parts
Shape-memory on a production line and thus remove the need for inspection. An ideal self-
Smart materials repairing material has sense-and-act behavior similar to that of smart materials, in
Composites that it can sense damage and then act in such a way as to repair this damage,
Chemical recovery automatically. Several players have developed and commercialized simple
elastomeric polymer coatings that use energy from sunlight to change shape and
remove light scratches—in particular for consumer-electronics applications.
Perhaps surprisingly, a few solid materials already have intrinsic self-healing
capabilities. Some concretes and rubbers can self-heal, thanks to the presence of
residual raw materials. Researchers have also developed prototype composite
materials—especially polymer composites—with self-repairing capabilities that
require very little or no human intervention. A clear analogy is that of biological
systems that automatically and autonomously initiate self-repair when they sustain
damage. These prototype composites contain microspheres or microcapsules,
fillers, and hollow fibers that contain chemical-recovery agents. Other researchers
are developing self-healing systems that rely on shape-memory materials. In
general, bulk materials have yet to see widespread commercial adoption.
Weaknesses Lifetimes and cost-effectiveness are still uncertain. Materials must prove at least
as reliable and strong in the first place as existing materials, otherwise substitution
is unattractive.
Related fields Portable Power, Advanced composites, Smart materials, Biomimetics, Shape-
memory materials, Nanomaterials.
Civil Uses Current: Coatings for consumer electronics devices. Emerging: Electronic
components and circuits. Future: Large structures for transportation, aerospace
and defense, energy.
Trends & A great deal of recent R&D has focused on the creation of composite materials
Challenges that can halt and repair small cracks that appear in a material under stress—
especially composite materials. For self-healing technologies to see success, they
Scaleup must not only become cheap and easy to implement but also exceed the
Cost functionality of existing technologies by a margin.
General The commercial progress of self-healing materials is actually occurring fairly slowly
valuation and only in discrete applications—this serves as both a warning and an indication
 Niche commercial of availability. Here is one example of 10 years’ progress: In 2005, Nissan and
applications Nippon Paint Company announced the development of a self-repairing coating for
Emerging use on car bodies; in 2009, this technology was licensed by NTT DoCoMo for use
in mobile-phone applications. In 2014, paint-manufacturer Natoco announced a
self-healing, scratch-repairing coating for use in smartphone applications.
Beyond coatings, researchers and materials companies have some way to go
before bulk self-healing materials become a commercial reality. Scientific interest
and funding still focus on the development of self-repairing materials rather than
their applications. However, numerous technical challenges still exist. Ideally, any
self-repair mechanism would result in no degradation of the material's physical
properties. Competing technologies include materials that are tough enough to
withstand damage in the first place.
Although most research is at a very early stage, I expect to see researchers create
materials that have useable self-healing functionality in the medium term. In
particular, the area of self-healing materials for electronics applications is
particularly promising, and a logical next-step forward from coatings.
Defence Self-healing materials could make life a lot easier for operators of systems that are
valuation traditionally on the end of rough treatment; the defense sector will undoubtedly be
in a strong position to benefit from this. Ultimately, self-healing systems could
Mission-critical lengthen product lifetimes, increase safety, and reduce maintenance
systems requirements. If successful, they could negate the need for some repair operations
Safety —perhaps after sustaining attack. Portable equipment and vehicles (manned and
Maintenance unmanned) being perhaps the most obvious examples of systems that could
benefit from self-healing functionalities. Mission-critical electronics, sensors, and
Repair
batteries would be robust if they featured self-repairing components. It is worth
Sensors emphasising caution with respect to defense applications; outside thin layers,
Durability structural self-healing materials remain some way from commercial availability.
Main actors Nissan, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Arkema, Natoco, SupraPolix,
Nippon Paint, University of Nevada, Reno, University of Bristol, Bayer
MaterialScience.
Recommendation Coatings technology falls into the Try category, in particular technology that is
applicable to important electronic equipment and batteries.
Observe Bulk materials remain firmly in the Observe category. It is worth asking several
Try questions before adopting any other self-healing technology, as it becomes more
available: Will the mechanisms that the researchers propose work in any
environment? Will these materials work at elevated temperatures and pressures?
Are the materials harmful to humans or the environment? What safety testing will
be necessary? Do any lifetime issues exist? These questions could be used to
create signposts, upon which future actions could be instigated.
One potential action is involvement in fundamental or applications-specific R&D
projects; instigating the development of self-healing materials for specific
applications—for example, self-healing mechanisms for the protection of specific
components or surfaces on electronic equipment, interfaces, or vehicles.
 11.09.2015

Smart Dust Sensors

Summary The smart dust concept is one of millimeter-sized (dust sized) devices, which can
perform a number of ‘smart’ activities including sensing vibration, temperature or
MEMS
chemicals. Theses devices can also communicate with each other or back to a
Sensing central hub and possibly even perform activities.
Developments in microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) have supported smart
dust progress but few devices are achieving the millimeter scales required. The
miniaturization of the technology needed to achieve smart dust (power, sensing,
communications) has not been in sync, with sensing capabilities generally being
ahead. Some prototype devices have been made that are invisible to the naked
eye but do not fully function as smart dust due to a lack of power or
communications. While some devices have been demonstrated to be fully
functioning smart devices in the sub-cm scale, the achievement of true ‘smart’ dust
size devices still seems to be some way off.
However, longer term, the possibility of low cost smart dust devices that can be
deployed in their thousands, or even millions, to achieve smart data gathering is
entirely plausible. In the short-term devices that are slightly larger than 1 mm are
already performing all of the actions required to be ‘smart’.
Weaknesses Energy supply and wireless communication methods are two key weaknesses.
Despite sensing technology being available at the right scale, without energy
supply and wireless communication, a complete system is unachievable.
Related fields Portable Power, Nanoelectronics, Internet of Things, Mesh networks, Augmentetd
Reality, MEMS, Integrated Vehicle Health Management, Nanomaterials, Medical
Nanobots, Nanotechnology, Intelligent Autonomous Systems, Passive energy
generation, Big data, Wearables, Swarms, Labs on Chips.
Civil Uses Include: Invisible tagging, tracking of products, commercial data gathering; In vivo
medical analysis; Hazardous environment/remote location data gathering. These
are at varying levels of maturity (concept to demonstration).
Trends & Current trends focus on the miniaturization of devices to sub 1 mm scale and also
Challenges methods to power such devices.
Commercial organizations wishing to use such technology to invisibly capture data
Internet of things about, and communicate with, its customers will drive development. Devices will
Miniaturization be built into non-electrical products, such as clothes, and used to detect
Communication information such as location and temperature to inform marketing approaches.
 Integration Just as the Internet of Things has the potential challenge of competing standards
among the big players (Apple, Google, Microsoft…), smart dust could be limited by
competing data and communication standards.
General If the semantic of the ‘dust’ in smart dust is ignored then there is already a lot of
valuation maturity in the technology enabling smart dust. Devices, of the size of several
millimetres, have already been made which provide computing ability, energy
Rapidly maturing generation and wireless communication. Devices of this size should not be ignored
Experimental despite not meeting the conceptual requirements for smart dust. For many
applications applications these devices will provide all of the benefit of true smart dust devices.
Smart dust, under the above, wider categorisation, will undoubtedly have a big
impact on the world within 10 years, largely due to the technology’s ability to be a
key enabler in data acquisition. However, due to the current low technology
maturity level of sub-millimetre energy production and storage devices, true smart
dust is unlikely to be in widespread usage before 2035. However, that isn’t to say
that true smart dust will not be deployed experimentally within the military or within
meteorology within that timescale.
Defence Smart dust provides both a potential threat and opportunity to defence and
valuation security. Smart dust deployed to perform surveillance will, by definition, be hard to
detect visually. Therefore, without advanced methods of detection in place, smart
Security dust could provide a serious threat to the retention of sensitive information and
Threat opportunities for intelligence gathering. Smart dust could also be deployed actively
Advanced to sabotage electronic networks or, for example, disrupt power supplies. The
sureveillance nature of smart dust will challenge the existing security measures put in place to
protect secret information in military establishments that currently do not allow
external electronic devices.
In new defence platforms, smart dust could be used for information gathering on
the condition of the platform, for example, embedded into paint to monitor
corrosion, temperature or humidity. Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM)
is a technology area that should benefit greatly from progress in smart dust.
Main actors University of California, Berkeley, University of Michigan, DARPA.
Recommendation Interested stakeholders, including those within the defense sector should put
immediate observation activities in place to understand the potential threat from
Observe smart dust technology and, specifically, methods for detection and defeat of smart
dust. While smart dust development will likely be pushed by commercial
organizations, countermeasures are highly unlikely to be developed outside of the
military domain so governments need to address this directly through investigating
and trying emerging technologies that could neutralize the threats that arise from
smart dust.
 05.10.2015

Smart Materials

Summary Smart materials (SMs) is a catchall expression for a diverse set of materials
technologies. In general, SMs produce direct, inherent responses to external
Morphing structures stimuli; signals and responses include temperature, voltage, pressure, magnetic
Smart fluids fields, light, and so on. These properties are often a result of a material’s structure,
Piezoelectric and not device design. For example, piezoelectric materials have a
Shape-memory noncentrosymmetric crystal structure. Applying a mechanical force to the structure
disrupts its symmetry and generates a voltage across the material. Conversely,
Electroactive
applying a voltage to a piezoelectric material causes the material to deform. Other
Thermochromic important classes of SMs include thermoelectrics, shape-memory materials (alloys
Intrinsic responses and polymers), electroactive polymers, electrochromics (including smart glasses),
Thermoelectric magnetrostrictives (including Terfenol-D), electrostrictives, thermochromics, and
Magnetostrictive smart fluids (including magnetorheological fluids). Researchers are using these
materials to enable shape-shifting materials, morphing structures, and even
programmable matter.
Often, SMs are integrated into devices that use SM reponses to create useful
devices such as sensors, motors, actuators, generators, or shape-shifting objects.
Thus, designers can use SMs to simplify products, add features, improve
performance, or increase reliability with relatively little added technical complexity.
Weaknesses Weaknesses are often material-specific. However, common issues include poor
level of response (time, magnitude, force), high cost, and a lack of familiarity on
the user side.
Related fields Self-healing materials, Smart packaging, Energy harvesting, Robotics, Advanced
composites, Metamaterials, Biomimetics, Electronics, Programmable matter,
Artificial muscles.
Civil Uses Current and emerging: Piezoelectric components for electronics and automotive
applications (sensors, speakers, injectors); Shape memory alloy medical stents;
Thermoelectric coolers/generators; Smart windows; Energy harvesting. Future:
Morphing structures; Programmable matter.
Trends & Key research centers on the development of SMs that are responsive—for
Challenges example, creating materials that actuate with high force, with a demonstrable
change in shape, color change, electrical output, or heating effect. Overcoming
Cost reduction poor responsiveness is perhaps the main challenge for SM researchers. For
Efficiency example, current thermoelectric materials do not convert heat into electricity
Improved responses efficiently enough for widespread commercilization. To enable these
 improvements, researchers are investigating nanoscale technologies—for
example, nanostructuring of SMs. In terms of more expansive concepts,
researchers are also looking to create living materials (materials that incorporate
organisms) and 4D printing systems (self-assembling components).
General In many ways, SMs is already a highly successful technology area. Collectively,
valuation SMs are likely worth about $25 billion. Piezoelectric materials are the most
commonly used SM, accounting for about one-third to one-half of all sales of SMs.
Niche markets Also commercial are a number of important niche applications, including shape-
Commercial memory alloys (spectacle frames, medical stents), magnetostrictive materials (in
particular, for defense/aerospace applications), thermoelectrics (in particular for
small-scale heating and cooling applications, such as portable drinks coolers),
smart glass (self-dimming automotive mirrors), and magnetorheological fluids (in
particular for smart suspension systems, which are available on many high-end
vehicles).
SMs are underpinning emerging energy-harvesting, energy-storage, and power-
generation application; piezoelectric and thermoelectric energy harvesting systems
are a prime example of SMs that are seeing use and investigation in this area.
Competing technologies include standard mechanical and electronic systems,
such as sensors, actuators, and motors. At the moment, SMs struggle to compete
with traditional approaches in many applications, mainly due to cost and
performance issues. Nevertheless, the next few decades will see improvements in
SMs that will make these materials become more attractive across numerous
application areas.
Defence SMs are extremely important across numerous defense and security applications.
valuation Several SMs have been developed as a direct result of defense-related R&D
activities. The magnetostrictive material Terfenol-D was developed by US Navy
Monitoring researchers, with a focus on sonar applications. SMs already see use in vibration
Strategic materials and noise control applications, advanced actuation applications, and structural
Sensors monitoring applications, within the defense and aerospace arena.
Stealth SMs could also enable tactile sensors and actuators for robotic vehicles. The
development of unmanned ground and aerial vehicles is accelerating, and smart
actuators could enable accurate remote operation. Military players hope that SMs
and adaptive structures will enable major advances in systems capabilities; for
example, SMs could also enable armor that reacts or perhaps recovers after
sensing an impact. Threats include limited or controlled access to some materials;
useful SM formulations can be protected by IP.
Main actors General Motors, Gentex, Georgia Tech, DARPA, Lord Corp., Murata, Gentherm,
Marlow, HRL, Etrema, Fraunhofer Institutes, Bayer MateriaScience, 3M.
Recommendation The Smart Materials technology area is wide enough to split into a variety of
material-dependent categories; many of these materials fall into the Try or Adopt
Observe categories—depending on application—because many commercial materials
Try already exist (for example, piezoelectrics, thermoelectrics, shape-memory alloys,
smart fluids, smart windows, and magnetostrictives.) Technologies that exist as
prototypes—in particular smart fabrics—sit within the Try category.
Key recommendations also include tracking and monitoring developments in some
advanced SMs, such as morphing structures—which nominally sit within the
Observe category. One should establish clear signposts that initiate a shift in these
technologies from the Observe to Try categories.
 13.09.2015

Stealth Technologies & Dynamic Camouflage

Summary Technologies designed to render objects hidden or invisible. Existing approaches

enable shielding from radar or microwaves; or indeed hiding data. Future
Metamaterials invisibility and chameleon-like camouflage could be illusions created either by
Dynamic displays manipulating light, or by actively projecting onto an object—either visually or
Invisibility thermally. An object is considered invisible if the human eye cannot see any
absorption or scattering of light when it is illuminated, or if light appears to pass
straight through the object and the object does not cast a shadow. Wrapping an
object in a dynamic metamaterial—an engineered material with unique properties
that derive from the material's ordered internal structure—could enable light hitting
the object to refract around the surface of the object and emerge from the other
side, thus appearing to pass through the object.
Researchers are developing prototype surfaces that can sense their surroundings
and change color accordingly—in some instances to camouflage people or
objects. Some prototypes work in a similar way to electronic paper (e-paper)—a
low-power display technology. Other researchers are developing thermal stealth
technologies to fool IR night-vision cameras; these match the temperature of a
surface to that of its surroundings using, for example, thermoelectric panels.

Weaknesses This is a formative technology area: Dynamic camouflage systems are largely
conceptual. Invisibility approaches require significant technology advances;
metamaterials are expensive and complex to produce.
Related fields Wearable Computing, Nanoelectronics, Internet of Things, Smart Materials,
Holodeck, Metamaterials, Autonomous Swarms, Thermoelectrics, Sensors,
Displays.

Civil Uses Technologies could enable advances in consumer electronics: For example, future
televisions may display the image of the wall onto which they are attached, and
thus blend in with surroundings.
Trends & Challenges in invisibility systems include metamaterials design and production.
Challenges Metamaterials capable of manipulating visible light will be more difficult to create
than metamaterials suitable for making objects invisible to radar, because the
Theoretical wavelength of visible light is shorter than that of the radio waves that radar
 Scale-up detects. Making objects invisible to both humans and radar will be difficult because
it requires two different metamaterials. In the visible region, new forms of
invisibility and chameleonlike camouflage might also be possible through the
confluence of displays and imaging technology—a key research trend across
university and commercial research groups.
General valuation Some stealth technologies are possible in the short term, following in the footsteps
of anti-radar approaches. In particular, hiding data, with implications for data
Niche security and cyberwarfare, may be easier than hiding real-world objects;
commercialization researchers at Cornell University use frequency modulation to disguise the
High cost addition, removal, or exchange of information.
Arguably, the concept of invisibility is no longer pure science fiction. Researchers
demonstrated the first negative-refractive-index material (operating at microwave
frequencies in 2000). Creating true invisibility will be very difficult (particularly at
wavelengths that humans can see), and the technology will be expensive to
manufacture. Metamaterials capable of manipulating visible light are difficult to
create, because the wavelength of visible light is extremely short.
Other technologies that conceal objects from human vision, thermal vision, and
radar are advancing. A surface that can sense its surroundings and change color
accordingly—either to camouflage itself or to create an image—could become
reality. Canadian player Hyperstealth reports that its Quantum Stealth material can
bend light—rendering targets invisible. BAE Systems developed a technology
called Adaptiv consisting of thermoelectric panels. Attached to a vehicle, panel
temperature increases or decreases to match the temperature of the surroundings,
rendering the vehicle invisible to night-vision systems.

Defence valuation Many—if not most—of the applications for invisibility are related to defense and
national security. Indeed, defense contractors are already heavily involved—as the
Cloaking examples of BAE Systems and Hyperstealth (above) highlight.
Game-changing The implications of these technologies (including metamaterials) beyond military
applications still require exploration before their long-term prospects can be
evaluated accurately. One thing is certain: these technologies are potentially
extremely disruptive. For example, in 2011, a Southeast University (China)
research team announced the creation of a structure using metamaterials that can
change the way radio waves interact with a copper cylinder so the structure
appears to be a different material; ultimately suggesting use as a military cloaking
device. An object that can masquerade as something else entirely is a highly
promising—and potentially contentious—application.

Main actors Duke University, Cornell University, Southeast University (China), Sandia National
Laboratories, Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, Hyperstealth.
Recommendation Because of the direct relationship with defense and security, this technology area
is worthy of observation, and in some cases further investigation. Likely, some
Observe hype surrounds the development of cloaking/active camouflage technologies, so
Try any breakthrough technology should be assessed before deciding on any major
future strategy. Metamaterials approaches fall into the Observe category, although
instigation of a limited R&D project is a possibility.
Key recommendations also include tracking and monitoring developments in all
the areas discussed above (many of which nominally sit within the Observe
category). One should establish clear signposts that initiate a shift in these
technologies from the Observe to Try categories.
 13.09.2015

Synthetic Biology

Summary Synthetic biology has expanded dramatically in recent years. However, the field is
still so nascent that scientists working in synthetic biology do not agree on a
Food definition. Synthetic biology brings together aspects of other fields—such as
Drug biotechnology, genetic engineering, and DNA sequencing—to design and create
DNA new biological systems. The increase in activity in synthetic biology is linked to
Test advances and falling costs in other areas; software tools and DNA-synthesis costs
are decreasing, and their accuracy is increasingly facilitating previously
unprecedented feats of synthetic biology.
Examples of developments in synthetic biology include the creation of the first
synthetic enzymes, which scientists at the University of Cambridge engineered,
raising the possibility of new methods for, for example, manufacturing
pharmaceuticals and materials, remediating pollution, and the growing and
processing of food.
Synthetic biology is also advancing DNA computing for applications such as data
storage and reprogramming living cells. Although synthetic biology holds a lot of
promise for a wide range of industries, this technology area is nascent, and real-
world applications have yet to materialize. However, Jay Keasling (University of
California, Berkeley) created a semisynthetic version of the antimalarial drug
artemisinin, which Sanofi is now commercially producing more cheaply and
reliably than from its original source plants.
Weaknesses Synthetic biology is still an emerging technology; its very definition is disparate and
somewhat controversial. At present, research efforts lack direction, and developers
face myriad technical challenges.
Related fields biomolecular computing, DNA sequencing, systems biology, biocatalysis, genetic
engineering, biosensors, molecular biology, Biotechnology.
Civil Uses Synthetic biology could find application in many areas, including pharmaceuticals,
medicine, agriculture, biofuels, materials, cosmetics, and data storage.
Trends & Research trends are broad and aspirational. A major research area is the
Challenges replication of life using synthetic DNA. Another research area focuses on using
synthetic biology to create tools that help to solve problems, for example, creating
Fear from public a food crop that uses water more efficiently.
Destroy cancer Experts propose genetic modifications to people, enabling resistance to flu, or
Side effects radiation; programmed synthetic organisms to destroy cancers. Synthetic biology
will face opposition from environmental groups and regulatory bodies will likely be
 very cautious because of unknown ecological side effects.
Synthetic biologists will have a difficult challenge in allaying these fears and
proving the usefulness.
General Synthetic biology is an immature area and is available only in research
valuation laboratories. However, the scientific fields that constitute synthetic biology are
more advanced, with some products based on genetic engineering already
Immature commercially available.
Ecological effects The progress of these other fields—both as enabling and competing technologies
Warnings — will play significant roles in the success of synthetic biology.
The major concern for the future of synthetic biology is the possibility of its
unintended ecological effects, but this uncertainty can only be estimated on a
case-by-case basis after the vast majority of research into each synthetic-biology
product has been completed. This cautiousness may result in the cost of
developing some synthetic-biology products being on a similar scale to drug
discovery and development.
Defence Many capabilities and limitations of synthetic biology are yet to be established. As
valuation research and understanding into different genes progresses, more possibilities will
arise.
Materials The opportunity for some advanced materials, tailored to the particular
Biological weapons applications and with specific traits, exists, as does the possibility of cleaner,
Energy cheaper energy.
Nevertheless, these potential applications are distant goals. Biological weapons
and deterrents developed through synthetic biology represent both an opportunity
and a threat.
The rise of biohacking—the practice of biological-technology development outside
research institutions—increases the chances of bioterrorism.
Main actors Synthetic Genomics, Medical Research Council Laboratory of Molecular Biology
(University of Cambridge), SynbiCITE, J. Craig Venter Institute, Evolva.
Recommendation This technology area falls into an Observe category. Key recommendations follow:
Create scenarios to help understand how the future could play out. Synthetic
Observe biology’s development could have profound, far-reaching consequences, but much
Obsolescence of is uncertain. Scenarios should be created with inputs from synthetic-biology
existing approaches technology experts, and defense/security experts.
Track & Monitor Track and monitor developments in synthetic biology and related fields such as
genetic engineering. Establish clear signposts that initiate a shift from Observe to
Try. (For example: A fully synthetic version of a certain drug is developed.)
Synthetic-biology approaches could make existing approaches obsolete. For
example, DNA computing could prove more effective than other novel computing
approaches.
Others incumbents affected could include: 1st and 2nd generation biofuels; some
pharmaceutical manufacturing methods; some irrigation, agriculture and food
production practices; certain medical diagnostic procedures (e.g. colonoscopy);
cancer treatments (e.g. radiotherapy, chemotherapy); some cosmetics; existing
environmental remediation procedures.
 22.09.2015

Telepresence

Summary Telepresence technologies allow users to observe, sense, and interact in remote
environments. Manufacturers of high-end conferencing systems create presence
Social presence by combining high-definition video, high-fidelity audio, and even matching furniture
High-fidelity audio and wall colors to create a sense of seamless transition between connected
High-definition video locations. Other systems use video-mounted robots to allow workers to interact
Remote execution of with colleagues in another location, and to move about just as they would in
tasks person.
More complex forms of telepresence give users the ability to perform skilled
activities remotely. Unmanned aerial vehicles let pilots fly aircraft and conduct
missions remotely. Ultimately telepresence researchers aim to eliminate functional
and sensory boundaries between people and remote locations.
While it overlaps with remote control systems and robotics, telepresence aims to
either create a sense of social presence for remote workers, or to give skilled
workers the ability to execute complex, open-ended tasks remotely. Today, for
example, telemedicine is a blend of video conferencing and data-sharing. In the
future, researchers hope to outfit surgical teams with immersive displays, controls
that function like traditional surgical tools, and a robotic field unit that they could
use to operate on patients in battlefield hospitals or disaster areas.
Weaknesses Outside UAVs, telepresence has struggled with poor interface and hardware
design, high development and equipment costs. Adoption of office telepresence
has been stymied by cheap, “good enough” alternatives like Skype.
Related fields Robotics, Virtual Reality, Interface design, Holodeck, Augmented Reality, Audio
and video, Sensors.
Civil Uses Today: law enforcement, search and rescue, professional services, medicine,
education, transportation, sports, video games.
Future applications: surgery, construction (esp. remote/dangerous locations),
scientific exploration, space science.
Trends & Directions and obstacles for future research include: Social presence: Systems
Challenges that “stand in” for operators need to seem natural and unobtrusive. This can be
achieved through better design; but it will also require time and familiarity among
Operational presence users; Physical presence: Designing remote systems capable of acting with
Social presence substantial freedom, and giving operators a sense of “being there,” requires
Physical presence advances in robotics, sensors, and interface design, particularly haptics and force
feedback;Operational presence: A particularly difficult challenge as it requires
 creating near-seamless connections between users and remote
vehicles/robots/etc., real-time feedback and operation, and interfaces that are
familiar and easy to use.
General The concept of telepresence is one of the most enduring in computer science, but
valuation has proved one of the hardest to implement. Partly this is a problem of
nomenclature: there is no industry standard definition of telepresence, and so the
Robotics term has been appropriated by (and arguably dumbed-down by) the
Transport operation videoconferencing industry.
Equipment operation The recent proliferation of UAVs, and the development of other remotely-operated
vehicles like mining equipment and earth movers, shows that in niche applications,
telepresence can be useful and profitable today. These successes suggest that in
the near future the creation of remotely-piloted systems like long-haul trucks,
trains, and tanks will drive innovation in telepresence—but they’ll face competition
from autonomous navigation systems.
The grand dream of creating systems that provides users with a convincing,
inviting (or in the battlespace, intimidating) physical presence in a remote location;
that gather large quantities of real-time sensory information; presenting that data
to users in ways that avoid information overload; and give users the ability to apply
their knowledge and skill in that remote location, has proved extremely
challenging, but recent advances in imaging and virtual reality suggest that these
challenges could be overcome. Robotics will be both an enabling and competing
technology.
Defence Telepresence offers the possibility of projecting the intelligence of soldiers into the
valuation battlespace, occupied areas, and other dangerous locations, without exposing
them to bodily risk. Professional soldiers possess a level of tactical intelligence,
Reduced risk flexibility, intuition, and assessment capabilities that no automated system can
Rapid "deployment" match. Further, telepresence could allow relatively small numbers of soldiers to be
Robotics “present” in multiple areas, and “deployed” to new hotspots very quickly.
Unmanned vehicles In the short term, the major opportunities are in unmanned vehicles, with ground-
based and littoral vehicles.
Main actors Fetch (robotics), Google (robotics), SAIC (underwater), DaVinci (telerobotics),
Rethink (robotics).
Recommendation The recent pace of innovation in robotics, autonomous or remotely-piloted
vehicles, and their underlying enabling technologies, has been remarkable. It’s no
Try longer a question of whether we will see delivery drones and robot assistants in
the near future; it’s merely a question of when.
While the level of trust in automated systems has risen, there is still plenty of
opportunity for technologies that augment human capabilities, or project human
skill into new areas. Innovations in telepresence are well worth observing.
Exploring strategic alliances with robotics and telepresence companies, or trying
an in-house telepresence pilot project, may also be worthwhile.
In a world of conflicts, violence, and resource competition, states and law
enforcement need tools to extend their reach without expanding their numbers.
The use of UAVs to monitor poachers in Africa is an early example of how even
small, poorly-funded forces could multiply their power to do good.
 24.08.2015

Wearable Computing

Summary Wearable technology has seen a recent peak in interest focused around smart
watches offering additional interfaces for portable electronics. Previous to this
Smart Fabrics most commercially successful wearable technology has been in the healthcare
Embedded and sports/fitness sectors. Wearable devices can incorporate sensors to record
Displays location, physical activity, pulse, blood pressure, blood glucose levels etc.
Beyond the current mass market, developers are looking at additional applications
such as head-mounted displays, gesture recognition devices, wearable cameras,
and exoskeletons.
Integrating electronics directly into textiles is perhaps the greatest innovation
currently under study in the textile industry. Embedded devices could act as
sensors—monitoring vital signs and athletic performance or measuring the
concentration of airborne toxic chemicals. Textile-based electronics also have the
potential for power generation and storage—enabling the realization of integrated
communication devices.
Weaknesses Wearable computing is currently restricted by several factors including limited
functionality, cost and battery capacity. In addition, current use is limited to small
discrete devices rather than being garment-integrated.
Related fields Augmented reality, Portable Power, Virtual Reality, Internet of Things, Holodeck,
MEMS, 3D Memory Chips, Telepresence, Social Networking, Bionic Implants,
Stealth and Camouflage, Brain-to-Brain Interfaces, Emotion Tracking.
Civil Uses Wearable computing can and is beginning to find use in several areas including
healthcare, sports/fitness, social networking, navigation, remote working and
policing.
Trends & Future research will yield increased numbers of components specifically designed
Challenges for wearables. Limited numbers of available devices are resulting in a strong
emphasis on having a range of uses per device. Progress in terms of uses and
Applications software is likely to be incremental—with numerous uses being tried in an attempt
Usability to identify useful markets.
Research into other forms of wearable tech such as exoskeletons is at a less
developed stage. These systems could be highly disruptive, but remain some way
from implementation.
The development of lightweight, flexible batteries is a key barrier to the
commercialization of textile-integrated electronics.
 General The full potential of wearable computing is not yet clear. Wearable computing is a
valuation technology largely built upon existing portable electronics and its success and
development, will go hand in hand with other portable electronic devices. For
Enabling example developments in flexible displays and improved battery capacities will
Uncertain benefit both smartphones and smart watches. The range of sensors currently
Consumer being used is also a limiting factor and the incorporation of a wider variety of inputs
measuring pressure, sound, electromagnetic fields etc. will open new avenues for
Emerging
wearable computing. CSIRO in Australia has developed energy-harvesting
technology that can seamlessly incorporate into clothing and apparel that is
already capable of delivering currents of several hundred milliwatts of power—
large enough to run low-power electronics systems such as global positioning
systems, mobile phones, heart-rate monitors, or radios in receiving mode.
Wearable tech that augments the wearer, such as exoskeletons, has the potential
to be disruptive but are at a comparatively early stage in terms of maturity and
availability.
Defence Wearable computing has a wide range of potential military applications including
valuation the use of head-mounted displays, bio monitors and GPS. Head mounted displays
could convey a wealth of relevant information. If combined with GPS systems
Monitoring these could enable navigation without the need to stop and consult maps. Bio
Safety monitors could enable effective monitoring of individuals for signs of fatigue, loss
Information of concentration and enable rapid assessment of injuries. In addition to sensing
applications (such as monitoring vital signs), integrating electronics directly into
textiles also has the potential to reduce the mass of the loads that soldiers are
required to carry.
More general wearable tech has similarly large potential. Exoskeletons could
augment a person’s strength or improve fine movement stability, for example in
aiming a weapon or performing surgery. Smart fabrics may enable dynamic
camouflage and garments that can adapt to changes in the weather.
Main actors Apple, CSIRO, United States' ARL, Google, Lumo BodyTech, Samsung, FitBit,
Fujitsu.
Recommendation Wearable computing is an important emerging technology that is likely to prove
highly disruptive—both in commercial applications and in the defense sector.
Try
Potential military applications make wearable technology of high interest to all
major stakeholders within this sector who should closely observe this area for new
and novel uses. Developments are likely to occur in an incremental fashion,
gradually increasing the range of uses for wearable technology. It is also worth
observing the development of new materials such as smart fabrics, which could
open new avenues of research and development.
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 Index

Autonomous Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Auxetic Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Symbols

3D Holographic Data Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 B

3D Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
3D Memory Chips . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Base Compound . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
3D Printed / Advanced Prosthetics . . . . . . . . 37 Big Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
3D organ printing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 BioAuthentication. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34
4D Printing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Biofeedback Video Game . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
5G mobile network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Biohacking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Biological . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Biological Batteries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
A Biologically Extended Senses . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Biomaterials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Advanced Navigation Systems . . . . . . . . . . . 46 BioMechanical Engineering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Aerial wireless network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 BioMetrics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Aerogel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Bionic implants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Agile Robots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 BioRobotics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
AI Doctor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Biotechnology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Airborne Wind Energy Systems . . . . . . . . . . 32 Brain Computer Interface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Annotated-reality Glasses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Brain Mapping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Antimatter Weapon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Brain Organoids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Antimicrobial Nanocoatings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Brain-to-Brain Interface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Artificial photosynthesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Auditory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Augmented Reality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
C
Automatic Target Recognition . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Illustration: Greek alphabet in tonal strips as a rolling Carbon Nanotube . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
background fill pattern - www.spoonflower.com Carbyne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
134 INDEX

Cathodes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Energy Management. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31

Cloud communications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Energy Propulsion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Cognitive & Umwelt Sensing . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Energy Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Collection of the information . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Energy transformation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Colloid Camouflage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Environment Mapping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Communications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Evolutionary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Computation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Explosive Reactive Armor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Computer Vision . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Extrauterine Fetal Incubation . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Conscription . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Construct . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Context-aware computing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 F
Controlled self-assembly. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42
Cosmetic Stickers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Fast Charging Batteries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Crowdsourced medicine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Faster Internet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Cyber hardening . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 First-generation smart grid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Cyber Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Flight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Full Genome Mapping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Fusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
D

DarkNet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Deep learning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 G
DEFTECH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5, 60
Generations of warfare. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17
DEFTECH Platform . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Genetic Therapy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Deliverbots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Genome Editing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Designer Carbon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Gesture Based Interactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Devices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Graphene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Directed Energy Weapon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Green Concrete . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Disruptive . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Dissemination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Distributed power generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 H

High Altitude Platforms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

E High-altitude Electromagnetic Pulse . . . . . . 47
Holographic technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
E-Mili . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Holoroom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
EEG Brain Recording . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Hover Bike . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Electric Airplanes Recharged by Drones . . . 45 Human Sense Hacking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Electric vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Human-Robots Relationship . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Electrolaser . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Hydrogen Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Electromagnetic Rail Gun . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Hypersonic Missiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Electrothermal-chemical Technology . . . . . . 47
EM Drive . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 I
Emotion Hacking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Emotion Tracking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Immersive Spatial Interfaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Empathic Things . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Immersive Virtual Reality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Information & Communication . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Energy Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Infrastructure Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Energy Intelligent Buildings . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Ingestible Sensors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
INDEX 135

Insect Drones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Nano Food . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

Intelligent autonomous swarms . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Nano Glass . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Interfaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Nano Textiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Internet of DNA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Nano-Architecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Internet of healthy things . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Nanobiotechnology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Internet of Things . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Nanocomposite Plastics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Nanoelectronics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Invisibility Cloaks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 NanoEnergetics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Invisible warfare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Nanoengineered Copper . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Nanofactories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
NanoGenerator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
L Nanomaterial-Based Photocatalyst . . . . . . . . 43
Nanophase Titanium Alloys . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Labs-On-Chips . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Nanoremediation and Water Treatment . . . . 43
Laser communications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Nanotechnology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Life Sciences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Nanotechnology Cosmetics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Liquid Biopsy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Nanotechnology Solar Cells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Lithium-air batteries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Negative Index Material . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Logistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Networked . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Long Distance UAV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
NeuroInfluencer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Long-range wireless charging . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
NeuroProsthetics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Low Energy Nuclear Reactions (LENR) . . . 32
New technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Nootropics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

Machine Learning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 O
Massed firepower . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Massed manpower . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Ocular Resampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Medical Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Medical Nanobots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 P
Memristor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Metamaterials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Payload Drones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Metaverse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Perovskite-based Solar Cells . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Micro nuclear reactors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Personal Robotics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Microelectromechanical Systems (MEMS) 36 Personalized Medicine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Microscale 3D Printing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Personalized Predictive Analytics . . . . . . . . . 40
Minibuilders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Piezoelectric power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Modular Armor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Platform of Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Modular Hardware . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Pocket Drone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Molecular Sensor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Portable solar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Powered Exosuits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Morphing Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Predictive crime prevention . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Prenatal DNA Sequencing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
N Printed batteries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Propaganda Advancement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Nano Catalysts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Pulse detonation engine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Nano ElectroMechanical Systems. . . . . . . . .42 Pulse Oximetry (Blood O2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
136 INDEX

Software-Defined Radio (SDR) . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Solar Panel Windows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Q Solar sail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Solid State Batteries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Quantified self . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Sonic Weapons & Long-range Acoustic De-
Quantum computing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 vices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47
Speckled Computing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
STIB . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
R Strategic maneuvering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Supercharged Photosynthesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Reactive . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Supergrids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Readiness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Superomniphobic Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
ReLaunchable Above Atmosphere Transporta- Synthetic biology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
tion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Reverse-osmosis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Revolutionary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .57
Risk Analysis & Decision Making . . . . . . . 34 T
Robonauts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Robotic Mule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Technology landscape . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Robotic surgery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Telehealth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Robotics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Telepresence Robots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Thermo-Bimetals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Tidal Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
S TransCranial Direct Stimulation . . . . . . . . . . 37
Transgenic Organisms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Scientific Invention of Ideas by A.I. . . . . . . . 38 Transparent Photovoltaic Glass . . . . . . . . . . . 32
SCRAMJet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
sec:act . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
sec:decide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
U
sec:observe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
sec:orient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 UAV Supply Delivery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Second-generation biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Ubiquitous Computing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Self- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Ultra-Efficient Solar Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Self-guided bullets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Universal Medical Repository . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Self-healing Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Sensors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Sequentially Timed All-optical Mapping Pho- V
tography (STAMP) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Service Robots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Vector Control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Sewage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communication . . . . . . . 45
Simulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Video & Image Recognition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Small modular nuclear reactors . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Virtual Reality Accessories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Smart & Interactive Textiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Smart Dust . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Smart energy network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 W
Smart Structures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Smart wind and solar power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Weapons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Social . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Wearable batteries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Social Crowd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Wearable Computing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Soft Robotics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Wifi for things . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
INDEX 137

Workshop . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

Zinc Poly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Federal Department of Defence,
Civil Protection and Sport DDPS
armasuisse
Science + Technology

Feuerwerkerstrasse 39
CH-3602 Thun
T +41 58 468 28 00
F +41 58 468 28 41
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