Mean and Variance of Random Variables and Probability Distribution Discussion

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Mean

Variance
Discrete Random
Variable
Engr. Jesusa SJ. Angeles
Content Standard Performance Standard
The learner is able to
The learner demonstrates apply an appropriate
understanding of key random variable for a
concepts of random given real-life problem
variables and probability (such as in decision
making and games of
distributions.
chance).
MOST ESSENTIAL LEARNING COMPETENCIES
M11/12SP-111b-1 M11/12SP-111b-3
01 The learner illustrates 03 The learner interprets
the mean and variance the mean and variance
of a discrete random of a discrete random
variable. variable.
M11/12SP-111b-2 M11/12SP-111b-4
02 The learner calculates 04 The learner solves
the mean and variance problems involving
of a discrete random mean and variance of
variable. probability distribution.
ACTIVITY
Identify the
following statements
whether it is true
or false.
01
Random variable is a
rule that associates a
numerical value to
each element in the
sample space.

TRUE
02
The probability of
getting a king
from a deck of
𝟏
cards is .
𝟏𝟑
TRUE
03
The probability of
a random variable
must always be
greater than 1.
FALSE
04
The number of
possible outcomes
when 2 dice were
thrown are 36.
TRUE
05
The probability of
getting a sum of
6 when we throw
𝟓
2 dice is .
𝟑𝟔
TRUE
Mean
Variance
Discrete Random
Variable
Engr. Jesusa SJ. Angeles
Lesson 1: Mean or Expected Value of Discrete Random Variable

The mean of a discrete random variable X is also


called the expected value of X. It is the weighted
average of all the values that the random variable X
would assume.
The expected value of X is the average of the
outcomes that is likely to be obtained if the trials are
repeated.

The expected value of X is denoted by 𝐸(𝑋).


Lesson 1: Mean or Expected Value of Discrete Random Variable

The mean or expected value of a discrete random


variable X is computed using the following
formula:
𝛍 = 𝑬 𝑿 = ෍ 𝒙𝑷(𝒙)
Where:
𝑋 =discrete random variable
𝑥 =outcome or value of the random variable
𝑃(𝑥)=𝑓(𝑥)=probability of the outcome x
Example 1
Given the probability distribution of the random variable X,
compute its mean or expected value.
X 0 1 2 3
P(x) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8
Solutions:
E(X) = σ xP(x)
𝟏 𝟑 𝟑 𝟏
E(X) = 𝟎 𝟖 + 𝟏 𝟖 + 𝟐 𝟖 + 𝟑 𝟖

E(X) = 𝟏𝟐 or 𝟑
𝟖 𝟐
Example 2
A researcher surveyed the households in a
small town. The random variable X represents
the number of college graduates in the
households. The probability distribution of X is
shown below:
X 0 1 2
P(x) 0.25 0.50 0.25
Compute for the average number of college
graduates in the households.
Example 2
X 0 1 2
P(x) 0.25 0.50 0.25

Solutions:
E(X) = σ xP(x)
E(X) = 𝟎 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 + 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟓𝟎 + 𝟐 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓
E(X) = 𝟏. 𝟎
The mean value is 1. Meaning the average
number of college graduate in the household of
the small town is 1 college graduate
Example 3
A security guard recorded the number of people
entering the bank every hour during one working day.
The random variable X represents the number of people
who entered the bank. The probability distribution of
X is shown below:

X 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
Compute for the average number of people entering the
bank every hour during that working day.
Example 3
X 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
Solutions:
E(X) = σ xP(x)
E(X) = 𝟎 𝟎 + 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟏 + 𝟐 𝟎. 𝟐 + 𝟑 𝟎. 𝟒 + 𝟒 𝟎. 𝟐 + 𝟓 𝟎. 𝟏
E(X) = 𝟑. 𝟎
Therefore, the average number of people
entering the bank every hour during that
working day is 3 people.
Lesson 2:
Variance and standard deviation of discrete random variable
The measure of variability or dispersion of a random
variable, considering its probability distribution, is the
variance of the random variable.
The variance of the random variable X is denoted by 𝜎 2 .
It can likewise be written as Var (X).

The variance of a random variable is the expected value of


the square of the difference between the assumed value of
random variable and the mean.
Variance and standard deviation of discrete random variable
The variance of a discrete random variable X is computed
using the following formula:
𝑽𝒂𝒓 𝑿 = 𝝈𝟐 = ෍ 𝒙 − 𝝁 𝟐 𝑷(𝒙)

or
𝑽𝒂𝒓 𝑿 = 𝝈𝟐 = ෍ 𝑬(𝑿𝟐 ) − 𝝁𝟐 = ෍ 𝒙𝟐 𝑷 𝒙 − 𝝁𝟐
Where:

𝑥 =outcome or value of the random variable


𝝁 =population mean or expected value
𝑃(𝑥)=𝑓(𝑥)=probability of the outcome x
Standard deviation of discrete random variable

The standard deviation of a discrete random


variable X is written as 𝜎. It is the square root of
the variance. The standard deviation is computed
as:

𝝈= ෍ 𝒙 − 𝝁 𝟐 𝑷(𝒙)
Example 1
Determine the variance and the standard deviation of the
following probability mass function.
X 0 1 2 3 4
P(x) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1
Solutions:
First, compute for the mean or expected value:
E(X) = σ xP(x)
E(X) = 𝟎 𝟎. 𝟏 + 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟐 + 𝟐 𝟎. 𝟑 + 𝟑 𝟎. 𝟑 + 𝟒 𝟎. 𝟏
E(X)= 2.1
Example 1 X 0 1 2 3 4
P(x) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1

Then, compute for the variance using the computed value of mean:
σ2 = ෍ x−μ 2 P(x)

σ2 =𝟎 − 𝟐. 𝟏 𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟏) + 𝟏 − 𝟐. 𝟏 𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟐) + 𝟐 − 𝟐. 𝟏 𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟑) + 𝟑 − 𝟐. 𝟏 𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟑) +


𝟒 − 𝟐. 𝟏 𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟏)

σ2 = 𝟏. 𝟐𝟗
Using the alternative formula
σ2 = ෍ x2 P x −μ2
σ2 = 𝟎𝟐 𝟎. 𝟏 +𝟏𝟐 𝟎. 𝟐 + 𝟐𝟐 𝟎. 𝟑 + 𝟑𝟐 𝟎. 𝟑 + 𝟒𝟐 𝟎. 𝟏 − (𝟐. 𝟏)𝟐
σ2 = 1.29
Example 1 X 0 1 2 3 4
P(x) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1

Lastly, compute for the standard deviation by getting the square


root of the variance:
σ= ෍ x−μ 2 P(x)

σ= σ2

σ=1.14
Example 2

The following are the results of a study of the


number of defective oven toasters produced by a
certain company. Use the data and the associated
probabilities to compute the expected number of
defective oven toasters and its variance.

X 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.08 0.16 0.28 0.27 0.15 0.06
X 0 1 2 3 4 5
Example 2
P(x) 0.08 0.16 0.28 0.27 0.15 0.06

Solutions:
First, compute for the mean or expected value:
E(X) = σ xP(x)
E(X) = 𝟎 𝟎. 𝟎𝟖 + 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟏𝟔 + 𝟐 𝟎. 𝟐𝟖 + 𝟑 𝟎. 𝟐𝟕 + 𝟒 𝟎. 𝟏𝟓 + 𝟓 𝟎. 𝟎𝟔
E(X)= 2.43
Therefore, the average number defective oven toasters
produced by a certain company is 2.43 ≈ 2 defective oven
toasters.
—TRAVIS KALANICK
X 0 1 2 3 4 5
Example 2
P(x) 0.08 0.16 0.28 0.27 0.15 0.06
Then, compute for the variance using the computed value of
mean: σ2 = ෍ x−μ 2 P(x)
σ2 = 𝟎 − 𝟐. 𝟒𝟑 𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟎𝟖) + 𝟏 − 𝟐. 𝟒𝟑 𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟏𝟔) + 𝟐 − 𝟐. 𝟒𝟑 𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟐𝟖) +
𝟑 − 𝟐. 𝟒𝟑 𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟐𝟕) + 𝟒 − 𝟐. 𝟒𝟑 𝟐
𝟎. 𝟏𝟓 + 𝟓 − 𝟐. 𝟒𝟑 𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟎𝟔)
σ2 = 𝟏. 𝟕𝟏
Using the alternative formula
σ2 = ෍ x2 P x −μ2
σ2 = 𝟎𝟐 𝟎.𝟎𝟖 + 𝟏𝟐 𝟎.𝟏𝟔 + 𝟐𝟐 𝟎.𝟐𝟖 + 𝟑𝟐 𝟎.𝟐𝟕 + 𝟒𝟐 𝟎.𝟏𝟓 + 𝟓𝟐 𝟎.𝟎𝟔 −(𝟐.𝟒𝟑)𝟐
σ2 = 𝟏.𝟕𝟏
PROBLEMS
INVOLVING
MEAN AND
VARIANCE OF
PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION.
Example 1
The officers of the faculty club of a public high school are
planning to sell 160 tickets to be raffled during the Christmas party.
One ticket will win P3000. The other tickets will win nothing. If you
are a faculty member of the school and you will buy one ticket, what
will be the expected value and variance of your gain?

Solutions:
First, construct its probability distribution:
One ticket will have a gain of P𝟑𝟎𝟎𝟎 but the probability of winning
𝟏
will only be 𝟏𝟔𝟎 . The remaining tickets will have a zero gain and the
𝟏𝟓𝟗 X 0 3000
probability will be . 𝟏𝟓𝟗 𝟏
𝟏𝟔𝟎 P(x) 𝟏𝟔𝟎 𝟏𝟔𝟎
Example 1 X 0 3000
𝟏𝟓𝟗 𝟏
P(x) 𝟏𝟔𝟎 𝟏𝟔𝟎

Compute for the mean or expected value:


E(X) = σ xP(x)
𝟏𝟓𝟗 𝟏
E(X) = 𝟎 + 3000
𝟏𝟔𝟎 𝟏𝟔𝟎

E(X)= P18.75
Example 1 X 0 3000
𝟏𝟓𝟗 𝟏
P(x) 𝟏𝟔𝟎 𝟏𝟔𝟎
Then, compute for the variance using the computed value of mean:
σ2 = ෍ x−μ 2 P(x)
2 𝟏𝟓𝟗 𝟏
σ = 𝟎 − 𝟏𝟖. 𝟕𝟓 ( ) + 𝟑𝟎𝟎𝟎 − 𝟏𝟖. 𝟕𝟓 (𝟏𝟔𝟎)
𝟐 𝟐
𝟏𝟔𝟎
σ2 = 𝟓𝟓, 𝟖𝟗𝟖. 𝟒𝟒
Using the alternative formula
σ2 = ෍ x2 P x −μ2
𝟏𝟓𝟗 𝟏 σ2 = 𝟓𝟓,𝟖𝟗𝟖.𝟒𝟒
σ2 = 𝟎𝟐 𝟏𝟔𝟎
+ 𝟑𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟐
𝟏𝟔𝟎
− 𝟏𝟖.𝟕𝟓 𝟐
Exercise
Matti tosses an unbiased coin. He receives P50 if a
head appears and he pays P30 if a tail appears. Find the
expected value and variance of his gain.
Solutions:
First, construct its probability distribution:
In tossing an unbiased coin, there are 2 events which are
equally likely. The probability of occurrence of each event
𝟏
is 𝟐 . Matti will have a gain of P50 if a head appears and a
lost of P30 if a tail appears. X -30 50
𝟏 𝟏
P(x) 𝟐 𝟐
Example 2 X -30 50
𝟏 𝟏
P(x) 𝟐 𝟐

Compute for the mean or expected value:


E(X) = σ xP(x)
𝟏 𝟏
E(X) = −𝟑𝟎 𝟐 + 𝟓𝟎
𝟐

E(X)= P 10
Example 2 X -30 50
𝟏 𝟏
P(x) 𝟐 𝟐
Then, compute for the variance using the computed value of mean:
σ2 = ෍ x−μ 2 P(x)
2 𝟏 𝟏
σ = −𝟑𝟎 − 𝟏𝟎 (𝟐) + 𝟓𝟎 − 𝟏𝟎 (𝟐)
𝟐 𝟐

σ2 = 𝟏𝟔𝟎𝟎
Using the alternative formula
σ2 = ෍ x2 P x −μ2 σ2 = 𝟏𝟔𝟎𝟎

2 𝟏 𝟏 Mattis expected gain will be P10


σ = (−𝟑𝟎)𝟐
𝟐
+ 𝟓𝟎𝟐 − 𝟏𝟎 𝟐 and variance of 1600.
𝟐
“The
VARIANCE of people
depends on
how MEAN they can be.”
— Kirti Chowdhary
Thank you!

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