Introduction To Psychological Statistics (Foster Et Al.)

AN INTRODUCTION TO
PSYCHOLOGICAL
STATISTICS
Foster et al.
University of Missouri-St. Louis, Rice
University, & University of Houston,
Downtown Campus
An Introduction to Psychological Statistics
Foster et al.
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This text was compiled on 02/18/2022

TABLE OF CONTENTS
We are constantly bombarded by information, and finding a way to filter that information in an objective way is crucial to surviving this
onslaught with your sanity intact. This is what statistics, and logic we use in it, enables us to do. Through the lens of statistics, we learn to
find the signal hidden in the noise when it is there and to know when an apparent trend or pattern is really just randomness.
ABOUT THIS BOOK

1: INTRODUCTION
This chapter provides an overview of statistics as a field of study and presents terminology that will be used throughout the course.
1.1: WHAT ARE STATISTICS?

1.2: WHY DO WE STUDY STATISTICS?
1.3: TYPES OF DATA AND HOW TO COLLECT THEM
1.4: COLLECTING DATA
1.5: TYPE OF RESEARCH DESIGNS
1.6: TYPES OF STATISTICAL ANALYSES
1.7: MATHEMATICAL NOTATION
1.E: INTRODUCTION (EXERCISES)
2: DESCRIBING DATA USING DISTRIBUTIONS AND GRAPHS

Before we can understand our analyses, we must first understand our data. The first step in doing this is using tables, charts, graphs, plots,
and other visual tools to see what our data look like.
2.1: GRAPHING QUALITATIVE VARIABLES

2.2: GRAPHING QUANTITATIVE VARIABLES
2.E: DESCRIBING DATA USING DISTRIBUTIONS AND GRAPHS (EXERCISES)
3: MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY AND SPREAD

Now that we have visualized our data to understand its shape, we can begin with numerical analyses. The descriptive statistics presented in
this chapter serve to describe the distribution of our data objectively and mathematically – out first step into statistical analysis! The topics
here will serve as the basis for everything we do in the rest of the course.
3.1: WHAT IS CENTRAL TENDENCY?

3.2: MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY
3.3: SPREAD AND VARIABILITY
3.E: MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY AND SPREAD (EXERCISES)
4: Z-SCORES AND THE STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

We now understand how to describe and present our data visually and numerically. These simple tools, and the principles behind them, will
help you interpret information presented to you and understand the basics of a variable. Moving forward, we now turn our attention to how
scores within a distribution are related to one another, how to precisely describe a score’s location within the distribution, and how to
compare scores from different distributions.
4.1: NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS

4.2: Z-SCORES
4.3: Z-SCORES AND THE AREA UNDER THE CURVE
4.E: Z-SCORES AND THE STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION (EXERCISES)
5: PROBABILITY
Probability can seem like a daunting topic for many students. In a mathematical statistics course this might be true, as the meaning and
purpose of probability gets obscured and overwhelmed by equations and theory. In this chapter we will focus only on the principles and ideas
necessary to lay the groundwork for future inferential statistics. We accomplish this by quickly tying the concepts of probability to what we
already know about normal distributions and z-scores.
5.1: WHAT IS PROBABILITY

5.2: PROBABILITY IN GRAPHS AND DISTRIBUTIONS
1 2/18/2022
5.3: THE BIGGER PICTURE
5.E: PROBABILITY (EXERCISES)
6: SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS
We have come to the final chapter in this unit. We will now take the logic, ideas, and techniques we have developed and put them together to
see how we can take a sample of data and use it to make inferences about what's truly happening in the broader population. This is the final
piece of the puzzle that we need to understand in order to have the groundwork necessary for formal hypothesis testing. Though some of the
concepts in this chapter seem strange, they are all simple extensions of what w
6.1: PEOPLE, SAMPLES, AND POPULATIONS

6.2: THE SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF SAMPLE MEANS
6.3: USING STANDARD ERROR FOR PROBABILITY
6.4: SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION, PROBABILITY AND INFERENCE
6.E: SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS (EXERCISES)
7: INTRODUCTION TO HYPOTHESIS TESTING

This chapter lays out the basic logic and process of hypothesis testing. We will perform z-tests, which use the z-score formula from chapter 6
and data from a sample mean to make an inference about a population.
7.1: LOGIC AND PURPOSE OF HYPOTHESIS TESTING

7.2: THE PROBABILITY VALUE
7.3: THE NULL HYPOTHESIS
7.4: THE ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS
7.5: CRITICAL VALUES, P-VALUES, AND SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL
7.6: STEPS OF THE HYPOTHESIS TESTING PROCESS
7.7: MOVIE POPCORN
7.8: EFFECT SIZE
7.9: OFFICE TEMPERATURE
7.10: DIFFERENT SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL
7.11: OTHER CONSIDERATIONS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING
7.E: INTRODUCTION TO HYPOTHESIS TESTING (EXERCISES)
8: INTRODUCTION TO T-TESTS
Last chapter we made a big leap from basic descriptive statistics into full hypothesis testing and inferential statistics. For the rest of the unit,
we will be learning new tests, each of which is just a small adjustment on the test before it. In this chapter, we will learn about the first of
three t-tests, and we will learn a new method of testing the null hypothesis: confidence intervals.
8.1: THE T-STATISTIC

8.2: HYPOTHESIS TESTING WITH T
8.3: CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
8.E: INTRODUCTION TO T-TESTS (EXERCISES)
9: REPEATED MEASURES
So far, we have dealt with data measured on a single variable at a single point in time, allowing us to gain an understanding of the logic and
process behind statistics and hypothesis testing. Now, we will look at a slightly different type of data that has new information we couldn’t
get at before: change. Specifically, we will look at how the value of a variable, within people, changes across two time points. This is a very
powerful thing to do, and, as we will see shortly, it involves only a v
9.1: CHANGE AND DIFFERENCES

9.2: HYPOTHESES OF CHANGE AND DIFFERENCES
9.3: INCREASING SATISFACTION AT WORK
9.4: BAD PRESS
9.E: REPEATED MEASURES (EXERCISES)
10: INDEPENDENT SAMPLES

We have seen how to compare a single mean against a given value and how to utilize difference scores to look for meaningful, consistent
change via a single mean difference. Now, we will learn how to compare two separate means from groups that do not overlap to see if there
is a difference between them. The process of testing hypotheses about two means is exactly the same as it is for testing hypotheses about a
single mean, and the logical structure of the formulae is the same as well.
2 2/18/2022
10.1: DIFFERENCE OF MEANS
10.2: RESEARCH QUESTIONS ABOUT INDEPENDENT MEANS
10.3: HYPOTHESES AND DECISION CRITERIA
10.4: INDEPENDENT SAMPLES T-STATISTIC
10.5: STANDARD ERROR AND POOLED VARIANCE
10.6: MOVIES AND MOOD
10.7: EFFECT SIZES AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
10.8: HOMOGENEITY OF VARIANCE
10.E: INDEPENDENT SAMPLES (EXERCISES)
11: ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE

Analysis of variance, often abbreviated to ANOVA for short, serves the same purpose as the t -tests we learned in unit 2: it tests for
differences in group means. ANOVA is more flexible in that it can handle any number of groups, unlike t -tests which are limited to two
groups (independent samples) or two time points (dependent samples). Thus, the purpose and interpretation of ANOVA will be the same as it
was for t -tests, as will the hypothesis testing procedure. However, ANOVA will, a
11.1: OBSERVING AND INTERPRETING VARIABILITY

11.2: SOURCES OF VARIANCE
11.3: ANOVA TABLE
11.4: ANOVA AND TYPE I ERROR
11.5: HYPOTHESES IN ANOVA
11.6: SCORES ON JOB APPLICATION TESTS
11.7: VARIANCE EXPLAINED
11.8: POST HOC TESTS
11.9: OTHER ANOVA DESIGNS
11.1E: ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE (EXERCISES)
12: CORRELATIONS
All of our analyses thus far have focused on comparing the value of a continuous variable across different groups via mean differences. We
will now turn away from means and look instead at how to assess the relation between two continuous variables in the form of correlations.
As we will see, the logic behind correlations is the same as it was group means, but we will now have the ability to assess an entirely new
data structure.
12.1: VARIABILITY AND COVARIANCE

12.2: VISUALIZING RELATIONS
12.3: THREE CHARACTERISTICS
12.4: PEARSON’S R
12.5: ANXIETY AND DEPRESSION
12.6: EFFECT SIZE
12.7: CORRELATION VERSUS CAUSATION
12.8: FINAL CONSIDERATIONS
12.E: CORRELATIONS (EXERCISES)
13: LINEAR REGRESSION

In chapter 11, we learned about ANOVA, which involves a new way a looking at how our data are structured and the inferences we can draw
from that. In chapter 12, we learned about correlations, which analyze two continuous variables at the same time to see if they systematically
relate in a linear fashion. In this chapter, we will combine these two techniques in an analysis called simple linear regression, or regression
for short. Regression uses the technique of variance partitioning from ANOVA
13.1: LINE OF BEST FIT

13.2: PREDICTION
13.3: ANOVA TABLE
13.4: HYPOTHESIS TESTING IN REGRESSION
13.5: HAPPINESS AND WELL-BEING
13.6: MULTIPLE REGRESSION AND OTHER EXTENSIONS
13.E: LINEAR REGRESSION (EXERCISES)
3 2/18/2022
14: CHI-SQUARE
We come at last to our final topic: chi-square (χ2). This test is a special form of analysis called a non-parametric test, so the structure of it
will look a little bit different from what we have done so far. However, the logic of hypothesis testing remains unchanged. The purpose of
chi-square is to understand the frequency distribution of a single categorical variable or find a relation between two categorical variables,
which is a frequently very useful way to look at our data.
14.1: CATEGORIES AND FREQUENCY TABLES

14.2: GOODNESS-OF-FIT
14.3: Χ² STATISTIC
14.4: PINEAPPLE ON PIZZA
14.5: CONTINGENCY TABLES FOR TWO VARIABLES
14.6: TEST FOR INDEPENDENCE
14.7: COLLEGE SPORTS
14.E: CHI-SQUARE (EXERCISES)
BACK MATTER
INDEX
GLOSSARY
4 2/18/2022
About this Book
We are constantly bombarded by information, and finding a way to filter that information in an objective way is crucial to
surviving this onslaught with your sanity intact. This is what statistics, and logic we use in it, enables us to do. Through the
lens of statistics, we learn to find the signal hidden in the noise when it is there and to know when an apparent trend or
pattern is really just randomness. The study of statistics involves math and relies upon calculations of numbers. But it also
relies heavily on how the numbers are chosen and how the statistics are interpreted.
This work was created as part of the University of Missouri’s Affordable and Open Access Educational Resources
Initiative (https://www.umsystem.edu/ums/aa/oer). The contents of this work have been adapted from the following Open
Access Resources: Online Statistics Education: A Multimedia Course of Study (http://onlinestatbook.com/). Project
Leader: David M. Lane, Rice University. Changes to the original works were made by Dr. Garett C. Foster in the
Department of Psychological Sciences to tailor the text to fit the needs of the introductory statistics course for psychology
majors at the University of Missouri – St. Louis. Materials from the original sources have been combined, reorganized, and
added to by the current author, and any conceptual, mathematical, or typographical errors are the responsibility of the
current author.
Garett C. Foster, University of Missouri-St. LouisFollow
David Lane, Rice UniversityFollow
David Scott, Rice University
Mikki Hebl, Rice University
Rudy Guerra, Rice University
Dan Osherson, Rice University
Heidi Zimmer, University of Houston, Downtown Campus
Recommended Citation
Foster, Garett C.; Lane, David; Scott, David; Hebl, Mikki; Guerra, Rudy; Osherson, Dan; and Zimmer, Heidi, "An
Introduction to Psychological Statistics" (2018). Open Educational Resources Collection. 4.
https://irl.umsl.edu/oer/4
1 1/21/2022 https://stats.libretexts.org/@go/page/7825
CHAPTER OVERVIEW
1: INTRODUCTION
This chapter provides an overview of statistics as a field of study and presents terminology that will be used throughout the course.
1.1: WHAT ARE STATISTICS?

1.2: WHY DO WE STUDY STATISTICS?
1.3: TYPES OF DATA AND HOW TO COLLECT THEM
1.4: COLLECTING DATA
1.5: TYPE OF RESEARCH DESIGNS
1.6: TYPES OF STATISTICAL ANALYSES
1.7: MATHEMATICAL NOTATION
1.E: INTRODUCTION (EXERCISES)
1 2/18/2022
1.1: What are statistics?
Statistics include numerical facts and figures. For instance:
The largest earthquake measured 9.2 on the Richter scale.
Men are at least 10 times more likely than women to commit murder.
One in every 8 South Africans is HIV positive.
By the year 2020, there will be 15 people aged 65 and over for every new baby born.
The study of statistics involves math and relies upon calculations of numbers. But it also relies heavily on how the
numbers are chosen and how the statistics are interpreted. For example, consider the following three scenarios and the
interpretations based upon the presented statistics. You will find that the numbers may be right, but the interpretation may
be wrong. Try to identify a major flaw with each interpretation before we describe it.
1. A new advertisement for Ben and Jerry's ice cream introduced in late May of last year resulted in a 30% increase in ice
cream sales for the following three months. Thus, the advertisement was effective. A major flaw is that ice cream
consumption generally increases in the months of June, July, and August regardless of advertisements. This effect is
called a history effect and leads people to interpret outcomes as the result of one variable when another variable (in this
case, one having to do with the passage of time) is actually responsible.
2. The more churches in a city, the more crime there is. Thus, churches lead to crime. A major flaw is that both increased
churches and increased crime rates can be explained by larger populations. In bigger cities, there are both more
churches and more crime. This problem, which we will discuss in more detail in Chapter 6, refers to the third-variable
problem. Namely, a third variable can cause both situations; however, people erroneously believe that there is a causal
relationship between the two primary variables rather than recognize that a third variable can cause both.
3. 75% more interracial marriages are occurring this year than 25 years ago. Thus, our society accepts interracial
marriages. A major flaw is that we don't have the information that we need. What is the rate at which marriages are
occurring? Suppose only 1% of marriages 25 years ago were interracial and so now 1.75% of marriages are interracial
(1.75 is 75% higher than 1). But this latter number is hardly evidence suggesting the acceptability of interracial
marriages. In addition, the statistic provided does not rule out the possibility that the number of interracial marriages
has seen dramatic fluctuations over the years and this year is not the highest. Again, there is simply not enough
information to understand fully the impact of the statistics.
As a whole, these examples show that statistics are not only facts and figures; they are something more than that. In the
broadest sense, “statistics” refers to a range of techniques and procedures for analyzing, interpreting, displaying, and
making decisions based on data.
Statistics is the language of science and data. The ability to understand and communicate using statistics enables
researchers from different labs, different languages, and different fields articulate to one another exactly what they have
found in their work. It is an objective, precise, and powerful tool in science and in everyday life.
What statistics are not

Many psychology students dread the idea of taking a statistics course, and more than a few have changed majors upon
learning that it is a requirement. That is because many students view statistics as a math class, which is actually not true.
While many of you will not believe this or agree with it, statistics isn’t math. Although math is a central component of it,
statistics is a broader way of organizing, interpreting, and communicating information in an objective manner. Indeed,
great care has been taken to eliminate as much math from this course as possible (students who do not believe this are
welcome to ask the professor what matrix algebra is). Statistics is a way of viewing reality as it exists around us in a way
that we otherwise could not.
Contributors and Attributions

Foster et al. (University of Missouri-St. Louis, Rice University, & University of Houston,
Downtown Campus)
Foster et al. 1.1.1 2/4/2022 https://stats.libretexts.org/@go/page/7079

1.2: Why do we study statistics?
Virtually every student of the behavioral sciences takes some form of statistics class. This is because statistics is how we
communicate in science. It serves as the link between a research idea and usable conclusions. Without statistics, we would
be unable to interpret the massive amounts of information contained in data. Even small datasets contain hundreds – if not
thousands – of numbers, each representing a specific observation we made. Without a way to organize these numbers into
a more interpretable form, we would be lost, having wasted the time and money of our participants, ourselves, and the
communities we serve.
Beyond its use in science, however, there is a more personal reason to study statistics. Like most people, you probably feel
that it is important to “take control of your life.” But what does this mean? Partly, it means being able to properly evaluate
the data and claims that bombard you every day. If you cannot distinguish good from faulty reasoning, then you are
vulnerable to manipulation and to decisions that are not in your best interest. Statistics provides tools that you need in
order to react intelligently to information you hear or read. In this sense, statistics is one of the most important things that
you can study.
To be more specific, here are some claims that we have heard on several occasions. (We are not saying that each one of
these claims is true!)
4 out of 5 dentists recommend Dentine.
Almost 85% of lung cancers in men and 45% in women are tobacco-related.
Condoms are effective 94% of the time.
People tend to be more persuasive when they look others directly in the eye and speak loudly and quickly.
Women make 75 cents to every dollar a man makes when they work the same job.
A surprising new study shows that eating egg whites can increase one's life span.
People predict that it is very unlikely there will ever be another baseball player with a batting average over 400.
There is an 80% chance that in a room full of 30 people that at least two people will share the same birthday.
79.48% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
All of these claims are statistical in character. We suspect that some of them sound familiar; if not, we bet that you have
heard other claims like them. Notice how diverse the examples are. They come from psychology, health, law, sports,
business, etc. Indeed, data and data interpretation show up in discourse from virtually every facet of contemporary life.
Statistics are often presented in an effort to add credibility to an argument or advice. You can see this by paying attention
to television advertisements. Many of the numbers thrown about in this way do not represent careful statistical analysis.
They can be misleading and push you into decisions that you might find cause to regret. For these reasons, learning about
statistics is a long step towards taking control of your life. (It is not, of course, the only step needed for this purpose.) The
purpose of this course, beyond preparing you for a career in psychology, is to help you learn statistical essentials. It will
make you into an intelligent consumer of statistical claims.
You can take the first step right away. To be an intelligent consumer of statistics, your first reflex must be to question the
statistics that you encounter. The British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli is quoted by Mark Twain as having said,
“There are three kinds of lies -- lies, damned lies, and statistics.” This quote reminds us why it is so important to
understand statistics. So let us invite you to reform your statistical habits from now on. No longer will you blindly accept
numbers or findings. Instead, you will begin to think about the numbers, their sources, and most importantly, the
procedures used to generate them.
The above section puts an emphasis on defending ourselves against fraudulent claims wrapped up as statistics, but let us
look at a more positive note. Just as important as detecting the deceptive use of statistics is the appreciation of the proper
use of statistics. You must also learn to recognize statistical evidence that supports a stated conclusion. Statistics are all
around you, sometimes used well, sometimes not. We must learn how to distinguish the two cases. In doing so, statistics
will likely be the course you use most in your day to day life, even if you do not ever run a formal analysis again.

Downtown Campus)

1.3: Types of Data and How to Collect Them
In order to use statistics, we need data to analyze. Data come in an amazingly diverse range of formats, and each type gives us a
unique type of information. In virtually any form, data represent the measured value of variables. A variable is simply a
characteristic or feature of the thing we are interested in understanding. In psychology, we are interested in people, so we might get
a group of people together and measure their levels of stress (one variable), anxiety (a second variable), and their physical health (a
third variable). Once we have data on these three variables, we can use statistics to understand if and how they are related. Before
we do so, we need to understand the nature of our data: what they represent and where they came from.
Types of Variables
When conducting research, experimenters often manipulate variables. For example, an experimenter might compare the
effectiveness of four types of antidepressants. In this case, the variable is “type of antidepressant.” When a variable is manipulated
by an experimenter, it is called an independent variable. The experiment seeks to determine the effect of the independent variable
on relief from depression. In this example, relief from depression is called a dependent variable. In general, the independent
variable is manipulated by the experimenter and its effects on the dependent variable are measured.
Example 1.3.1
Can blueberries slow down aging? A study indicates that antioxidants found in blueberries may slow down the
process of aging. In this study, 19-month-old rats (equivalent to 60-year-old humans) were fed either their standard
diet or a diet supplemented by either blueberry, strawberry, or spinach powder. After eight weeks, the rats were
given memory and motor skills tests. Although all supplemented rats showed improvement, those supplemented
with blueberry powder showed the most notable improvement.
a. What is the independent variable? (dietary supplement: none, blueberry, strawberry, and spinach)
b. What are the dependent variables? (memory test and motor skills test)
Example 1.3.2
Does beta-carotene protect against cancer? Beta-carotene supplements have been thought to protect against
cancer. However, a study published in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute suggests this is false. The study
was conducted with 39,000 women aged 45 and up. These women were randomly assigned to receive a beta-
carotene supplement or a placebo, and their health was studied over their lifetime. Cancer rates for women taking
the betacarotene supplement did not differ systematically from the cancer rates of those women taking the placebo.
a. What is the independent variable? (supplements: beta-carotene or placebo)
b. What is the dependent variable? (occurrence of cancer)
Example 1.3.3
How bright is right? An automobile manufacturer wants to know how bright brake lights should be in order to
minimize the time required for the driver of a following car to realize that the car in front is stopping and to hit the
brakes.
a. What is the independent variable? (brightness of brake lights)
b. What is the dependent variable? (time to hit brakes)
Levels of an Independent Variable

If an experiment compares an experimental treatment with a control treatment, then the independent variable (type of treatment)
has two levels: experimental and control. If an experiment were comparing five types of diets, then the independent variable (type
of diet) would have 5 levels. In general, the number of levels of an independent variable is the number of experimental conditions.

Qualitative and Quantitative Variables
An important distinction between variables is between qualitative variables and quantitative variables. Qualitative variables are
those that express a qualitative attribute such as hair color, eye color, religion, favorite movie, gender, and so on. The values of a
qualitative variable do not imply a numerical ordering. Values of the variable “religion” differ qualitatively; no ordering of
religions is implied. Qualitative variables are sometimes referred to as categorical variables. Quantitative variables are those
variables that are measured in terms of numbers. Some examples of quantitative variables are height, weight, and shoe size.
In the study on the effect of diet discussed previously, the independent variable was type of supplement: none, strawberry,
blueberry, and spinach. The variable “type of supplement” is a qualitative variable; there is nothing quantitative about it. In
contrast, the dependent variable “memory test” is a quantitative variable since memory performance was measured on a
quantitative scale (number correct).
Discrete and Continuous Variables

Variables such as number of children in a household are called discrete variables since the possible scores are discrete points on the
scale. For example, a household could have three children or six children, but not 4.53 children. Other variables such as “time to
respond to a question” are continuous variables since the scale is continuous and not made up of discrete steps. The response time
could be 1.64 seconds, or it could be 1.64237123922121seconds. Of course, the practicalities of measurement preclude most
measured variables from being truly continuous.
Levels of Measurement
Before we can conduct a statistical analysis, we need to measure our dependent variable. Exactly how the measurement is carried
out depends on the type of variable involved in the analysis. Different types are measured differently. To measure the time taken to
respond to a stimulus, you might use a stop watch. Stop watches are of no use, of course, when it comes to measuring someone's
attitude towards a political candidate. A rating scale is more appropriate in this case (with labels like “very favorable,” “somewhat
favorable,” etc.). For a dependent variable such as “favorite color,” you can simply note the color-word (like “red”) that the subject
offers.
Although procedures for measurement differ in many ways, they can be classified using a few fundamental categories. In a given
category, all of the procedures share some properties that are important for you to know about. The categories are called “scale
types,” or just “scales,” and are described in this section.
Nominal scales
When measuring using a nominal scale, one simply names or categorizes responses. Gender, handedness, favorite color, and
religion are examples of variables measured on a nominal scale. The essential point about nominal scales is that they do not imply
any ordering among the responses. For example, when classifying people according to their favorite color, there is no sense in
which green is placed “ahead of” blue. Responses are merely categorized. Nominal scales embody the lowest level of
measurement.
Ordinal scales
A researcher wishing to measure consumers' satisfaction with their microwave ovens might ask them to specify their feelings as
either “very dissatisfied,” “somewhat dissatisfied,” “somewhat satisfied,” or “very satisfied.” The items in this scale are ordered,
ranging from least to most satisfied. This is what distinguishes ordinal from nominal scales. Unlike nominal scales, ordinal scales
allow comparisons of the degree to which two subjects possess the dependent variable. For example, our satisfaction ordering
makes it meaningful to assert that one person is more satisfied than another with their microwave ovens. Such an assertion reflects
the first person's use of a verbal label that comes later in the list than the label chosen by the second person.
On the other hand, ordinal scales fail to capture important information that will be present in the other scales we examine. In
particular, the difference between two levels of an ordinal scale cannot be assumed to be the same as the difference between two
other levels. In our satisfaction scale, for example, the difference between the responses “very dissatisfied” and “somewhat
dissatisfied” is probably not equivalent to the difference between “somewhat dissatisfied” and “somewhat satisfied.” Nothing in
our measurement procedure allows us to determine whether the two differences reflect the same difference in psychological
satisfaction. Statisticians express this point by saying that the differences between adjacent scale values do not necessarily represent
equal intervals on the underlying scale giving rise to the measurements. (In our case, the underlying scale is the true feeling of
satisfaction, which we are trying to measure.)

What if the researcher had measured satisfaction by asking consumers to indicate their level of satisfaction by choosing a number
from one to four? Would the difference between the responses of one and two necessarily reflect the same difference in satisfaction
as the difference between the responses two and three? The answer is No. Changing the response format to numbers does not
change the meaning of the scale. We still are in no position to assert that the mental step from 1 to 2 (for example) is the same as
the mental step from 3 to 4.
Interval scales
Interval scales are numerical scales in which intervals have the same interpretation throughout. As an example, consider the
Fahrenheit scale of temperature. The difference between 30 degrees and 40 degrees represents the same temperature difference as
the difference between 80 degrees and 90 degrees. This is because each 10-degree interval has the same physical meaning (in terms
of the kinetic energy of molecules).
Interval scales are not perfect, however. In particular, they do not have a true zero point even if one of the scaled values happens to
carry the name “zero.” The Fahrenheit scale illustrates the issue. Zero degrees Fahrenheit does not represent the complete absence
of temperature (the absence of any molecular kinetic energy). In reality, the label “zero” is applied to its temperature for quite
accidental reasons connected to the history of temperature measurement. Since an interval scale has no true zero point, it does not
make sense to compute ratios of temperatures. For example, there is no sense in which the ratio of 40 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit is
the same as the ratio of 100 to 50 degrees; no interesting physical property is preserved across the two ratios. After all, if the “zero”
label were applied at the temperature that Fahrenheit happens to label as 10 degrees, the two ratios would instead be 30 to 10 and
90 to 40, no longer the same! For this reason, it does not make sense to say that 80 degrees is “twice as hot” as 40 degrees. Such a
claim would depend on an arbitrary decision about where to “start” the temperature scale, namely, what temperature to call zero
(whereas the claim is intended to make a more fundamental assertion about the underlying physical reality).
Ratio scales
The ratio scale of measurement is the most informative scale. It is an interval scale with the additional property that its zero
position indicates the absence of the quantity being measured. You can think of a ratio scale as the three earlier scales rolled up in
one. Like a nominal scale, it provides a name or category for each object (the numbers serve as labels). Like an ordinal scale, the
objects are ordered (in terms of the ordering of the numbers). Like an interval scale, the same difference at two places on the scale
has the same meaning. And in addition, the same ratio at two places on the scale also carries the same meaning.
The Fahrenheit scale for temperature has an arbitrary zero point and is therefore not a ratio scale. However, zero on the Kelvin
scale is absolute zero. This makes the Kelvin scale a ratio scale. For example, if one temperature is twice as high as another as
measured on the Kelvin scale, then it has twice the kinetic energy of the other temperature.
Another example of a ratio scale is the amount of money you have in your pocket right now (25 cents, 55 cents, etc.). Money is
measured on a ratio scale because, in addition to having the properties of an interval scale, it has a true zero point: if you have zero
money, this implies the absence of money. Since money has a true zero point, it makes sense to say that someone with 50 cents has
twice as much money as someone with 25 cents (or that Bill Gates has a million times more money than you do).
What level of measurement is used for psychological variables?

Rating scales are used frequently in psychological research. For example, experimental subjects may be asked to rate their level of
pain, how much they like a consumer product, their attitudes about capital punishment, their confidence in an answer to a test
question. Typically these ratings are made on a 5-point or a 7-point scale. These scales are ordinal scales since there is no assurance
that a given difference represents the same thing across the range of the scale. For example, there is no way to be sure that a
treatment that reduces pain from a rated pain level of 3 to a rated pain level of 2 represents the same level of relief as a treatment
that reduces pain from a rated pain level of 7 to a rated pain level of 6.
In memory experiments, the dependent variable is often the number of items correctly recalled. What scale of measurement is this?
You could reasonably argue that it is a ratio scale. First, there is a true zero point; some subjects may get no items correct at all.
Moreover, a difference of one represents a difference of one item recalled across the entire scale. It is certainly valid to say that
someone who recalled 12 items recalled twice as many items as someone who recalled only 6 items.

But number-of-items recalled is a more complicated case than it appears at first. Consider the following example in which subjects
are asked to remember as many items as possible from a list of 10. Assume that (a) there are 5 easy items and 5 difficult items, (b)
half of the subjects are able to recall all the easy items and different numbers of difficult items, while (c) the other half of the
subjects are unable to recall any of the difficult items but they do remember different numbers of easy items. Some sample data are
shown below.
Table 1.3.1 : Sample Data
Subject Easy Items Difficult Items Score
A 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
B 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
C 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 7
D 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 8
Let's compare (i) the difference between Subject A's score of 2 and Subject B's score of 3 and (ii) the difference between Subject
C's score of 7 and Subject D's score of 8. The former difference is a difference of one easy item; the latter difference is a difference
of one difficult item. Do these two differences necessarily signify the same difference in memory? We are inclined to respond “No”
to this question since only a little more memory may be needed to retain the additional easy item whereas a lot more memory may
be needed to retain the additional hard itemred. The general point is that it is often inappropriate to consider psychological
measurement scales as either interval or ratio.
Consequences of level of measurement Why are we so interested in the type of scale that measures a dependent variable? The crux
of the matter is the relationship between the variable's level of measurement and the statistics that can be meaningfully computed
with that variable. For example, consider a hypothetical study in which 5 children are asked to choose their favorite color from
blue, red, yellow, green, and purple. The researcher codes the results as follows:
Table 1.3.2 : Favorite color data code
Color Code
Blue 1
Red 2
Yellow 3
Green 4
Purple 5
This means that if a child said her favorite color was “Red,” then the choice was coded as “2,” if the child said her favorite color
was “Purple,” then the response was coded as 5, and so forth. Consider the following hypothetical data
Table 1.3.3 : Favorite color data
Subject Color Code
1 Blue 1
2 Blue 1
3 Green 4
4 Green 4
5 Purple 5
Each code is a number, so nothing prevents us from computing the average code assigned to the children. The average happens to
be 3, but you can see that it would be senseless to conclude that the average favorite color is yellow (the color with a code of 3).
Such nonsense arises because favorite color is a nominal scale, and taking the average of its numerical labels is like counting the
number of letters in the name of a snake to see how long the beast is.
Does it make sense to compute the mean of numbers measured on an ordinal scale? This is a difficult question, one that statisticians
have debated for decades. The prevailing (but by no means unanimous) opinion of statisticians is that for almost all practical

situations, the mean of an ordinally-measured variable is a meaningful statistic. However, there are extreme situations in which
computing the mean of an ordinally-measured variable can be very misleading.

Foster et al. (University of Missouri-St. Louis, Rice University, & University of Houston, Downtown
Campus)

1.4: Collecting Data
We are usually interested in understanding a specific group of people. This group is known as the population of interest, or
simply the population. The population is the collection of all people who have some characteristic in common; it can be as
broad as “all people” if we have a very general research question about human psychology, or it can be extremely narrow,
such as “all freshmen psychology majors at Midwestern public universities” if we have a specific group in mind.
Populations and samples

In statistics, we often rely on a sample --- that is, a small subset of a larger set of data --- to draw inferences about the
larger set. The larger set is known as the population from which the sample is drawn.
Example 1.4.1
You have been hired by the National Election Commission to examine how the American people feel about the
fairness of the voting procedures in the U.S. Who will you ask?
Solution
It is not practical to ask every single American how he or she feels about the fairness of the voting procedures. Instead,
we query a relatively small number of Americans, and draw inferences about the entire country from their responses.
The Americans actually queried constitute our sample of the larger population of all Americans.
A sample is typically a small subset of the population. In the case of voting attitudes, we would sample a few thousand
Americans drawn from the hundreds of millions that make up the country. In choosing a sample, it is therefore crucial
that it not over-represent one kind of citizen at the expense of others. For example, something would be wrong with
our sample if it happened to be made up entirely of Florida residents. If the sample held only Floridians, it could not be
used to infer the attitudes of other Americans. The same problem would arise if the sample were comprised only of
Republicans. Inferences from statistics are based on the assumption that sampling is representative of the population. If
the sample is not representative, then the possibility of sampling bias occurs. Sampling bias means that our
conclusions apply only to our sample and are not generalizable to the full population.
Example 1.4.2
We are interested in examining how many math classes have been taken on average by current graduating seniors at
American colleges and universities during their four years in school.
Solution
Whereas our population in the last example included all US citizens, now it involves just the graduating seniors
throughout the country. This is still a large set since there are thousands of colleges and universities, each enrolling
many students. (New York University, for example, enrolls 48,000 students.) It would be prohibitively costly to
examine the transcript of every college senior. We therefore take a sample of college seniors and then make inferences
to the entire population based on what we find. To make the sample, we might first choose some public and private
colleges and universities across the United States. Then we might sample 50 students from each of these institutions.
Suppose that the average number of math classes taken by the people in our sample were 3.2. Then we might speculate
that 3.2 approximates the number we would find if we had the resources to examine every senior in the entire
population. But we must be careful about the possibility that our sample is non-representative of the population.
Perhaps we chose an overabundance of math majors, or chose too many technical institutions that have heavy math
requirements. Such bad sampling makes our sample unrepresentative of the population of all seniors.
To solidify your understanding of sampling bias, consider the following example. Try to identify the population and the
sample, and then reflect on whether the sample is likely to yield the information desired.

Example 1.4.3
A substitute teacher wants to know how students in the class did on their last test. The teacher asks the 10 students
sitting in the front row to state their latest test score. He concludes from their report that the class did extremely well.
What is the sample? What is the population? Can you identify any problems with choosing the sample in the way that
the teacher did?
Solution
The population consists of all students in the class. The sample is made up of just the 10 students sitting in the front
row. The sample is not likely to be representative of the population. Those who sit in the front row tend to be more
interested in the class and tend to perform higher on tests. Hence, the sample may perform at a higher level than the
population.
Example 1.4.4
A coach is interested in how many cartwheels the average college freshmen at his university can do. Eight volunteers
from the freshman class step forward. After observing their performance, the coach concludes that college freshmen
can do an average of 16 cartwheels in a row without stopping.
Solution
The population is the class of all freshmen at the coach's university. The sample is composed of the 8 volunteers. The
sample is poorly chosen because volunteers are more likely to be able to do cartwheels than the average freshman;
people who can't do cartwheels probably did not volunteer! In the example, we are also not told of the gender of the
volunteers. Were they all women, for example? That might affect the outcome, contributing to the non-representative
nature of the sample (if the school is co-ed).
Simple Random Sampling

Researchers adopt a variety of sampling strategies. The most straightforward is simple random sampling. Such sampling
requires every member of the population to have an equal chance of being selected into the sample. In addition, the
selection of one member must be independent of the selection of every other member. That is, picking one member from
the population must not increase or decrease the probability of picking any other member (relative to the others). In this
sense, we can say that simple random sampling chooses a sample by pure chance. To check your understanding of simple
random sampling, consider the following example. What is the population? What is the sample? Was the sample picked by
simple random sampling? Is it biased?
Example 1.4.5
A research scientist is interested in studying the experiences of twins raised together versus those raised apart. She
obtains a list of twins from the National Twin Registry, and selects two subsets of individuals for her study. First, she
chooses all those in the registry whose last name begins with Z. Then she turns to all those whose last name begins
with B. Because there are so many names that start with B, however, our researcher decides to incorporate only every
other name into her sample. Finally, she mails out a survey and compares characteristics of twins raised apart versus
together.
Solution
The population consists of all twins recorded in the National Twin Registry. It is important that the researcher only
make statistical generalizations to the twins on this list, not to all twins in the nation or world. That is, the National
Twin Registry may not be representative of all twins. Even if inferences are limited to the Registry, a number of
problems affect the sampling procedure we described. For instance, choosing only twins whose last names begin with
Z does not give every individual an equal chance of being selected into the sample. Moreover, such a procedure risks
over-representing ethnic groups with many surnames that begin with Z. There are other reasons why choosing just the
Z's may bias the sample. Perhaps such people are more patient than average because they often find themselves at the
end of the line! The same problem occurs with choosing twins whose last name begins with B. An additional problem

for the B's is that the “every-other-one” procedure disallowed adjacent names on the B part of the list from being both
selected. Just this defect alone means the sample was not formed through simple random sampling.
Sample size matters

Recall that the definition of a random sample is a sample in which every member of the population has an equal chance of
being selected. This means that the sampling procedure rather than the results of the procedure define what it means for a
sample to be random. Random samples, especially if the sample size is small, are not necessarily representative of the
entire population. For example, if a random sample of 20 subjects were taken from a population with an equal number of
males and females, there would be a nontrivial probability (0.06) that 70% or more of the sample would be female. Such a
sample would not be representative, although it would be drawn randomly. Only a large sample size makes it likely that
our sample is close to representative of the population. For this reason, inferential statistics take into account the sample
size when generalizing results from samples to populations. In later chapters, you'll see what kinds of mathematical
techniques ensure this sensitivity to sample size.
More complex sampling

Sometimes it is not feasible to build a sample using simple random sampling. To see the problem, consider the fact that
both Dallas and Houston are competing to be hosts of the 2012 Olympics. Imagine that you are hired to assess whether
most Texans prefer Houston to Dallas as the host, or the reverse. Given the impracticality of obtaining the opinion of every
single Texan, you must construct a sample of the Texas population. But now notice how difficult it would be to proceed by
simple random sampling. For example, how will you contact those individuals who don’t vote and don’t have a phone?
Even among people you find in the telephone book, how can you identify those who have just relocated to California (and
had no reason to inform you of their move)? What do you do about the fact that since the beginning of the study, an
additional 4,212 people took up residence in the state of Texas? As you can see, it is sometimes very difficult to develop a
truly random procedure. For this reason, other kinds of sampling techniques have been devised. We now discuss two of
them.
Stratified Sampling
Since simple random sampling often does not ensure a representative sample, a sampling method called stratified random
sampling is sometimes used to make the sample more representative of the population. This method can be used if the
population has a number of distinct “strata” or groups. In stratified sampling, you first identify members of your sample
who belong to each group. Then you randomly sample from each of those subgroups in such a way that the sizes of the
subgroups in the sample are proportional to their sizes in the population.
Let's take an example: Suppose you were interested in views of capital punishment at an urban university. You have the
time and resources to interview 200 students. The student body is diverse with respect to age; many older people work
during the day and enroll in night courses (average age is 39), while younger students generally enroll in day classes
(average age of 19). It is possible that night students have different views about capital punishment than day students. If
70% of the students were day students, it makes sense to ensure that 70% of the sample consisted of day students. Thus,
your sample of 200 students would consist of 140 day students and 60 night students. The proportion of day students in the
sample and in the population (the entire university) would be the same. Inferences to the entire population of students at
the university would therefore be more secure.
Convenience Sampling
Not all sampling methods are perfect, and sometimes that’s okay. For example, if we are beginning research into a
completely unstudied area, we may sometimes take some shortcuts to quickly gather data and get a general idea of how
things work before fully investing a lot of time and money into well-designed research projects with proper sampling. This
is known as convenience sampling, named for its ease of use. In limited cases, such as the one just described, convenience
sampling is okay because we intend to follow up with a representative sample. Unfortunately, sometimes convenience
sampling is used due only to its convenience without the intent of improving on it in future work.

Downtown Campus)

1.5: Type of Research Designs
Research studies come in many forms, and, just like with the different types of data we have, different types of studies tell
us different things. The choice of research design is determined by the research question and the logistics involved.
Though a complete understanding of different research designs is the subject for at least one full class, if not more, a basic
understanding of the principles is useful here. There are three types of research designs we will discuss: experimental,
quasiexperimental, and non-experimental.
Experimental Designs
If we want to know if a change in one variable causes a change in another variable, we must use a true experiment. An
experiment is defined by the use of random assignment to treatment conditions and manipulation of the independent
variable. To understand what this means, let’s look at an example:
A clinical researcher wants to know if a newly developed drug is effective in treating the flu. Working with collaborators at
several local hospitals, she randomly samples 40 flu patients and randomly assigns each one to one of two conditions:
Group A receives the new drug and Group B received a placebo. She measures the symptoms of all participants after 1
week to see if there is a difference in symptoms between the groups.
In the example, the independent variable is the drug treatment; we manipulate it into 2 levels: new drug or placebo.
Without the researcher administering the drug (i.e. manipulating the independent variable), there would be no difference
between the groups. Each person, after being randomly sampled to be in the research, was then randomly assigned to one
of the 2 groups. That is, random sampling and random assignment are not the same thing and cannot be used
interchangeably. For research to be a true experiment, random assignment must be used. For research to be representative
of the population, random sampling must be used. The use of both techniques helps ensure that there are no systematic
differences between the groups, thus eliminating the potential for sampling bias.
The dependent variable in the example is flu symptoms. Barring any other intervention, we would assume that people in
both groups, on average, get better at roughly the same rate. Because there are no systematic differences between the 2
groups, if the researcher does find a difference in symptoms, she can confidently attribute it to the effectiveness of the new
drug.
Quasi-Experimental Designs
Quasi-experimental research involves getting as close as possible to the conditions of a true experiment when we cannot
meet all requirements. Specifically, a quasiexperiment involves manipulating the independent variable but not randomly
assigning people to groups. There are several reasons this might be used. First, it may be unethical to deny potential
treatment to someone if there is good reason to believe it will be effective and that the person would unduly suffer if they
did not receive it. Alternatively, it may be impossible to randomly assign people to groups. Consider the following
example:
A professor wants to test out a new teaching method to see if it improves student learning. Because he is teaching two
sections of the same course, he decides to teach one section the traditional way and the other section using the new
method. At the end of the semester, he compares the grades on the final for each class to see if there is a difference.
In this example, the professor has manipulated his teaching method, which is the independent variable, hoping to find a
difference in student performance, the dependent variable. However, because students enroll in courses, he cannot
randomly assign the students to a particular group, thus precluding using a true experiment to answer his research question.
Because of this, we cannot know for sure that there are no systematic differences between the classes other than teaching
style and therefore cannot determine causality.

Non-Experimental Designs
Finally, non-experimental research (sometimes called correlational research) involves observing things as they occur
naturally and recording our observations as data. Consider this example:
A data scientist wants to know if there is a relation between how conscientious a person is and whether that person is a
good employee. She hopes to use this information to predict the job performance of future employees by measuring their
personality when they are still job applicants. She randomly samples volunteer employees from several different
companies, measuring their conscientiousness and having their bosses rate their performance on the job. She analyzes this
data to find a relation.
Here, it is not possible to manipulate conscientious, so the researcher must gather data from employees as they are in order
to find a relation between her variables.
Although this technique cannot establish causality, it can still be quite useful. If the relation between conscientiousness and
job performance is consistent, then it doesn’t necessarily matter is conscientiousness causes good performance or if they
are both caused by something else – she can still measure conscientiousness to predict future performance. Additionally,
these studies have the benefit of reflecting reality as it actually exists since we as researchers do not change anything.

Downtown Campus)

1.6: Types of Statistical Analyses
Now that we understand the nature of our data, let’s turn to the types of statistics we can use to interpret them. There are 2
types of statistics: descriptive and inferential.
Descriptive Statistics
Descriptive statistics are numbers that are used to summarize and describe data. The word “data” refers to the information
that has been collected from an experiment, a survey, an historical record, etc. (By the way, “data” is plural. One piece of
information is called a “datum.”) If we are analyzing birth certificates, for example, a descriptive statistic might be the
percentage of certificates issued in New York State, or the average age of the mother. Any other number we choose to
compute also counts as a descriptive statistic for the data from which the statistic is computed. Several descriptive statistics
are often used at one time to give a full picture of the data. Descriptive statistics are just descriptive. They do not involve
generalizing beyond the data at hand. Generalizing from our data to another set of cases is the business of inferential
statistics, which you'll be studying in another section. Here we focus on (mere) descriptive statistics. Some descriptive
statistics are shown in Table 1.6.1. The table shows the average salaries for various occupations in the United States in
1999.
Table 1.6.1 : Average salaries for various occupations in 1999.
Salary Occupation
$112,760 pediatricians
$106,130 dentists
$100,090 podiatrists
$76,140 physicists
$53,410 architects
school, clinical, and counseling
$49,720
psychologists
$47,910 flight attendants
$39,560 elementary school teachers
$38,710 police officers
$18,980 floral designers
Descriptive statistics like these offer insight into American society. It is interesting to note, for example, that we pay the
people who educate our children and who protect our citizens a great deal less than we pay people who take care of our
feet or our teeth.
For more descriptive statistics, consider Table 1.6.2. It shows the number of unmarried men per 100 unmarried women in
U.S. Metro Areas in 1990. From this table we see that men outnumber women most in Jacksonville, NC, and women
outnumber men most in Sarasota, FL. You can see that descriptive statistics can be useful if we are looking for an
opposite-sex partner! (These data come from the Information Please Almanac.)
Table 1.6.2 : Number of unmarried men per 100 unmarried women in U.S. Metro Areas in 1990.
Cities with mostly Cities with mostly
Men per 100 Women Men per 100 Women
men women
1. Jacksonville, NC 224 1. Sarasota, FL 66

Cities with mostly Cities with mostly
Men per 100 Women Men per 100 Women
men women
2. Killeen-Temple,
123 2. Bradenton, FL 68
TX
3. Fayetteville, NC 118 3. Altoona, PA 69
4. Brazoria, TX 117 4. Springfield, IL 70
5. Lawton, OK 116 5. Jacksonville, TN 70
6. State College, PA 113 6. Gadsden, AL 70
7. ClarksvilleHopkinsville,
113 7. Wheeling, WV 70
TN-KY
8. Anchorage,
112 8. Charleston, WV 71
Alaska
9. Salinas-SeasideMonterey,
112 9. St. Joseph, MO 71
CA
10. Bryan-College
111 10. Lynchburg, VA 71
Station, TX
NOTE: Unmarried includes never-married, widowed, and divorced persons, 15 years or older.
These descriptive statistics may make us ponder why the numbers are so disparate in these cities. One potential
explanation, for instance, as to why there are more women in Florida than men may involve the fact that elderly
individuals tend to move down to the Sarasota region and that women tend to outlive men. Thus, more women might live
in Sarasota than men. However, in the absence of proper data, this is only speculation.
You probably know that descriptive statistics are central to the world of sports. Every sporting event produces numerous
statistics such as the shooting percentage of players on a basketball team. For the Olympic marathon (a foot race of 26.2
miles), we possess data that cover more than a century of competition. (The first modern Olympics took place in 1896.)
The following table shows the winning times for both men and women (the latter have only been allowed to compete since
1984).
Table 1.6.3 : Winning Olympic marathon times.
Year Winner Country Time
Women
1984 Joan Benoit USA 2:24:52

1988 Rosa Mota POR 2:25:40
1992 Valentina Yegorova UT 2:32:41
1996 Fatuma Roba ETH 2:26:05
2000 Naoko Takahashi JPN 2:23:14
2004 Mizuki Noguchi JPN 2:26:20
Men

Year Winner Country Time
1896 Spiridon Louis GRE 2:58:50
1900 Michel Theato FRA 2:59:45
1904 Thomas Hicks USA 3:28:53
1906 Billy Sherring CAN 2:51:23
1908 Johnny Hayes USA 2:55:18
1912 Kenneth McArthur S. Afr. 2:36:54
1920 Hannes Kolehmainen FIN 2:32:35
1924 Albin Stenroos FIN 2:41:22
1928 Boughra El Ouafi FRA 2:32:57
1932 Juan Carlos Zabala ARG 2:31:36
1936 Sohn Kee-Chung JPN 2:29:19
1948 Delfo Cabrera ARG 2:34:51
1952 Emil Ztopek CZE 2:23:03
1956 Alain Mimoun FRA 2:25:00
1960 Abebe Bikila ETH 2:15:16
1964 Abebe Bikila ETH 2:12:11
1968 Mamo Wolde ETH 2:20:26
1972 Frank Shorter USA 2:12:19
1976 Waldemar Cierpinski E.Ger 2:09:55
1980 Waldemar Cierpinski E.Ger 2:11:03
1984 Carlos Lopes POR 2:09:21
1988 Gelindo Bordin ITA 2:10:32
1992 Hwang Young-Cho S. Kor 2:13:23
1996 Josia Thugwane S. Afr. 2:12:36
2000 Gezahenge Abera ETH 2:10.10
2004 Stefano Baldini ITA 2:10:55
There are many descriptive statistics that we can compute from the data in the table. To gain insight into the improvement
in speed over the years, let us divide the men's times into two pieces, namely, the first 13 races (up to 1952) and the second
13 (starting from 1956). The mean winning time for the first 13 races is 2 hours, 44 minutes, and 22 seconds (written
2:44:22). The mean winning time for the second 13 races is 2:13:18. This is quite a difference (over half an hour). Does
this prove that the fastest men are running faster? Or is the difference just due to chance, no more than what often emerges

from chance differences in performance from year to year? We can't answer this question with descriptive statistics alone.
All we can affirm is that the two means are “suggestive.”
Examining Table 1.6.3 leads to many other questions. We note that Takahashi (the lead female runner in 2000) would have
beaten the male runner in 1956 and all male runners in the first 12 marathons. This fact leads us to ask whether the gender
gap will close or remain constant. When we look at the times within each gender, we also wonder how far they will
decrease (if at all) in the next century of the Olympics. Might we one day witness a sub-2 hour marathon? The study of
statistics can help you make reasonable guesses about the answers to these questions.
It is also important to differentiate what we use to describe populations vs what we use to describe samples. A population
is described by a parameter; the parameter is the true value of the descriptive in the population, but one that we can never
know for sure. For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the average hourly wage of chefs is $23.87.
However, even if this number was computed using information from every single chef in the United States (making it a
parameter), it would quickly become slightly off as one chef retires and a new chef enters the job market. Additionally, as
noted above, there is virtually no way to collect data from every single person in a population. In order to understand a
variable, we estimate the population parameter using a sample statistic. Here, the term “statistic” refers to the specific
number we compute from the data (e.g. the average), not the field of statistics. A sample statistic is an estimate of the true
population parameter, and if our sample is representative of the population, then the statistic is considered to be a good
estimator of the parameter.
Even the best sample will be somewhat off from the full population, earlier referred to as sampling bias, and as a result,
there will always be a tiny discrepancy between the parameter and the statistic we use to estimate it. This difference is
known as sampling error, and, as we will see throughout the course, understanding sampling error is the key to
understanding statistics. Every observation we make about a variable, be it a full research study or observing an
individual’s behavior, is incapable of being completely representative of all possibilities for that variable. Knowing where
to draw the line between an unusual observation and a true difference is what statistics is all about.
Inferential Statistics
Descriptive statistics are wonderful at telling us what our data look like. However, what we often want to understand is
how our data behave. What variables are related to other variables? Under what conditions will the value of a variable
change? Are two groups different from each other, and if so, are people within each group different or similar? These are
the questions answered by inferential statistics, and inferential statistics are how we generalize from our sample back up to
our population. Units 2 and 3 are all about inferential statistics, the formal analyses and tests we run to make conclusions
about our data.
For example, we will learn how to use a t statistic to determine whether people change over time when enrolled in an
intervention. We will also use an F statistic to determine if we can predict future values on a variable based on current
known values of a variable. There are many types of inferential statistics, each allowing us insight into a different behavior
of the data we collect. This course will only touch on a small subset (or a sample) of them, but the principles we learn
along the way will make it easier to learn new tests, as most inferential statistics follow the same structure and format.

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1.7: Mathematical Notation
As noted above, statistics is not math. It does, however, use math as a tool. Many statistical formulas involve summing
numbers. Fortunately there is a convenient notation for expressing summation. This section covers the basics of this
summation notation.
Let's say we have a variable X that represents the weights (in grams) of 4 grapes:
Table 1.7.1
Grape X
1 4.6
2 5.1
3 4.9
4 4.4
We label Grape 1's weight X , Grape 2's weight X , etc. The following formula means to sum up the weights of the four
1 2
grapes:
4
∑ Xi (1.7.1)
i=1
The Greek letter Σ indicates summation. The “i = 1” at the bottom indicates that the summation is to start with X and the 1
4 at the top indicates that the summation will end with X . The “X ” indicates that X is the variable to be summed as i
4 i
goes from 1 to 4. Therefore,

4
∑ Xi = X1 + X2 + X3 + X4 = 4.6 + 5.1 + 4.9 + 4.4 = 19
i=1
The symbol
3
∑ Xi
i=1
indicates that only the first 3 scores are to be summed. The index variable i goes from 1 to 3.
When all the scores of a variable (such as X ) are to be summed, it is often convenient to use the following abbreviated
notation:
∑X
Thus, when no values of i are shown, it means to sum all the values of X .
Many formulas involve squaring numbers before they are summed. This is indicated as
2 2 2 2 2
∑X = 4.6 + 5.1 + 4.9 + 4.4
= 21.16 + 26.01 + 24.01 + 19.36 = 90.54
Notice that:
2
2
(∑ X) ≠ ∑X (1.7.2)
because the expression on the left means to sum up all the values of X and then square the sum (19² = 361), whereas the
expression on the right means to square the numbers and then sum the squares (90.54, as shown).

Some formulas involve the sum of cross products. Below are the data for variables X and Y . The cross products (XY) are
shown in the third column. The sum of the cross products is 3 + 4 + 21 = 28.
Table 1.7.2
X Y XY
1 3 3
2 2 4
3 7 21
In summation notation, this is written as:
∑ XY = 28

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1.E: Introduction (Exercises)
1. In your own words, describe why we study statistics.
Answer:
Your answer could take many forms but should include information about objectively interpreting information and/or
communicating results and research conclusions
2. For each of the following, determine if the variable is continuous or discrete:

a. Time taken to read a book chapter
b. Favorite food
c. Cognitive ability
d. Temperature
e. Letter grade received in a class
3. For each of the following, determine the level of measurement:
a. T-shirt size
b. Time taken to run 100 meter race
c. First, second, and third place in 100 meter race
d. Birthplace
e. Temperature in Celsius
Answer:
a. Ordinal
b. Ratio
c. Ordinal
d. Nominal
e. Interval
4. What is the difference between a population and a sample? Which is described by a parameter and which is described
by a statistic?
5. What is sampling bias? What is sampling error?
Answer:
Sampling bias is the difference in demographic characteristics between a sample and the population it should represent.
Sampling error is the difference between a population parameter and sample statistic that is caused by random chance
due to sampling bias.
6. What is the difference between a simple random sample and a stratified random sample?
7. What are the two key characteristics of a true experimental design?
Answer:
Random assignment to treatment conditions and manipulation of the independent variable 9
8. When would we use a quasi-experimental design?

9. Use the following dataset for the computations below:
X Y
2 8
3 8
7 4
5 1
Foster et al. 1.E.1 1/6/2022 https://stats.libretexts.org/@go/page/7086

X Y
9 4
a. ∑ X
b. ∑ Y 2
c. ∑ XY
d. (∑ Y) 2
Answer:
a. 26
b. 161
c. 109
d. 625
10. What are the most common measures of central tendency and spread?

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CHAPTER OVERVIEW
2: DESCRIBING DATA USING DISTRIBUTIONS AND GRAPHS
Before we can understand our analyses, we must first understand our data. The first step in doing this is using tables, charts, graphs, plots,
and other visual tools to see what our data look like.
2.1: GRAPHING QUALITATIVE VARIABLES

2.2: GRAPHING QUANTITATIVE VARIABLES
2.E: DESCRIBING DATA USING DISTRIBUTIONS AND GRAPHS (EXERCISES)
1 2/18/2022
2.1: Graphing Qualitative Variables
When Apple Computer introduced the iMac computer in August 1998, the company wanted to learn whether the iMac was
expanding Apple’s market share. Was the iMac just attracting previous Macintosh owners? Or was it purchased by
newcomers to the computer market and by previous Windows users who were switching over? To find out, 500 iMac
customers were interviewed. Each customer was categorized as a previous Macintosh owner, a previous Windows owner,
or a new computer purchaser.
This section examines graphical methods for displaying the results of the interviews. We’ll learn some general lessons
about how to graph data that fall into a small number of categories. A later section will consider how to graph numerical
data in which each observation is represented by a number in some range. The key point about the qualitative data that
occupy us in the present section is that they do not come with a pre-established ordering (the way numbers are ordered).
For example, there is no natural sense in which the category of previous Windows users comes before or after the category
of previous Macintosh users. This situation may be contrasted with quantitative data, such as a person’s weight. People of
one weight are naturally ordered with respect to people of a different weight.
Frequency Tables
All of the graphical methods shown in this section are derived from frequency tables. Table 1 shows a frequency table for
the results of the iMac study; it shows the frequencies of the various response categories. It also shows the relative
frequencies, which are the proportion of responses in each category. For example, the relative frequency for “none” of 0.17
= 85/500.
Table 2.1.1 : Frequency Table for the iMac Data.
Previous Ownership Frequency Relative Frequency
None 85 0.17
Windows 60 0.12
Macintosh 355 0.71
Total 500 1
Pie Charts
The pie chart in Figure 2.1.1 shows the results of the iMac study. In a pie chart, each category is represented by a slice of
the pie. The area of the slice is proportional to the percentage of responses in the category. This is simply the relative
frequency multiplied by 100. Although most iMac purchasers were Macintosh owners, Apple was encouraged by the 12%
of purchasers who were former Windows users, and by the 17% of purchasers who were buying a computer for the first
time.
Figure 2.1.1 : Pie chart of iMac purchases illustrating frequencies of previous computer ownership.
Pie charts are effective for displaying the relative frequencies of a small number of categories. They are not recommended,
however, when you have a large number of categories. Pie charts can also be confusing when they are used to compare the
outcomes of two different surveys or experiments. In an influential book on the use of graphs, Edward Tufte asserted “The
only worse design than a pie chart is several of them.” Here is another important point about pie charts. If they are based

on a small number of observations, it can be misleading to label the pie slices with percentages. For example, if just 5
people had been interviewed by Apple Computers, and 3 were former Windows users, it would be misleading to display a
pie chart with the Windows slice showing 60%. With so few people interviewed, such a large percentage of Windows users
might easily have occurred since chance can cause large errors with small samples. In this case, it is better to alert the user
of the pie chart to the actual numbers involved. The slices should therefore be labeled with the actual frequencies observed
(e.g., 3) instead of with percentages.
Bar charts Bar charts can also be used to represent frequencies of different categories. A bar chart of the iMac purchases is
shown in Figure 2.1.2. Frequencies are shown on the Yaxis and the type of computer previously owned is shown on the X-
axis. Typically, the Y-axis shows the number of observations in each category rather than the percentage of observations in
each category as is typical in pie charts.
Figure 2.1.2 : Bar chart of iMac purchases as a function of previous computer ownership.
Comparing Distributions Often we need to compare the results of different surveys, or of different conditions within the
same overall survey. In this case, we are comparing the “distributions” of responses between the surveys or conditions. Bar
charts are often excellent for illustrating differences between two distributions. Figure 2.1.3 shows the number of people
playing card games at the Yahoo web site on a Sunday and on a Wednesday in the spring of 2001. We see that there were
more players overall on Wednesday compared to Sunday. The number of people playing Pinochle was nonetheless the
same on these two days. In contrast, there were about twice as many people playing hearts on Wednesday as on Sunday.
Facts like these emerge clearly from a well-designed bar chart.

Figure 2.1.3 : A bar chart of the number of people playing different card games on Sunday and Wednesday.
The bars in Figure 2.1.3 are oriented horizontally rather than vertically. The horizontal format is useful when you have
many categories because there is more room for the category labels. We’ll have more to say about bar charts when we
consider numerical quantities later in this chapter.
Some graphical mistakes to avoid Don’t get fancy! People sometimes add features to graphs that don’t help to convey their
information. For example, 3-dimensional bar charts such as the one shown in Figure 2.1.4 are usually not as effective as
their two-dimensional counterparts.
Figure 2.1.4 : A three-dimensional version of Figure 2.1.2

Here is another way that fanciness can lead to trouble. Instead of plain bars, it is tempting to substitute meaningful images.
For example, Figure 2.1.5 presents the iMac data using pictures of computers. The heights of the pictures accurately
represent the number of buyers, yet Figure 2.1.5 is misleading because the viewer's attention will be captured by areas.
The areas can exaggerate the size differences between the groups. In terms of percentages, the ratio of previous Macintosh
owners to previous Windows owners is about 6 to 1. But the ratio of the two areas in Figure 2.1.5 is about 35 to 1. A
biased person wishing to hide the fact that many Windows owners purchased iMacs would be tempted to use Figure 2.1.5
instead of Figure 2.1.2! Edward Tufte coined the term “lie factor” to refer to the ratio of the size of the effect shown in a
graph to the size of the effect shown in the data. He suggests that lie factors greater than 1.05 or less than 0.95 produce
unacceptable distortion.

Figure 2.1.5 : A redrawing of Figure 2.1.2 with a lie factor greater than 8.
Another distortion in bar charts results from setting the baseline to a value other than zero. The baseline is the bottom of
the Y-axis, representing the least number of cases that could have occurred in a category. Normally, but not always, this
number should be zero. Figure 6 shows the iMac data with a baseline of 50. Once again, the differences in areas suggests a
different story than the true differences in percentages. The number of Windows-switchers seems minuscule compared to
its true value of 12%.
Figure 2.1.6 : A redrawing of Figure 2.1.2 with a baseline of 50.

Finally, we note that it is a serious mistake to use a line graph when the X-axis contains merely qualitative variables. A line
graph is essentially a bar graph with the tops of the bars represented by points joined by lines (the rest of the bar is
suppressed). Figure 2.1.7 inappropriately shows a line graph of the card game data from Yahoo. The drawback to Figure 7
is that it gives the false impression that the games are naturally ordered in a numerical way when, in fact, they are ordered
alphabetically.
Figure 2.1.7 : A line graph used inappropriately to depict the number of people playing different card games on Sunday
and Wednesday.

Summary
Pie charts and bar charts can both be effective methods of portraying qualitative data. Bar charts are better when there are
more than just a few categories and for comparing two or more distributions. Be careful to avoid creating misleading
graphs.

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2.2: Graphing Quantitative Variables
As discussed in the section on variables in Chapter 1, quantitative variables are variables measured on a numeric scale.
Height, weight, response time, subjective rating of pain, temperature, and score on an exam are all examples of
quantitative variables. Quantitative variables are distinguished from categorical (sometimes called qualitative) variables
such as favorite color, religion, city of birth, favorite sport in which there is no ordering or measuring involved.
There are many types of graphs that can be used to portray distributions of quantitative variables. The upcoming sections
cover the following types of graphs:
1. stem and leaf displays
2. histograms
3. frequency polygons
4. box plots
5. bar charts
6. line graphs
7. dot plots
8. scatter plots (discussed in a different chapter)
Some graph types such as stem and leaf displays are best-suited for small to moderate amounts of data, whereas others
such as histograms are best suited for large amounts of data. Graph types such as box plots are good at depicting
differences between distributions. Scatter plots are used to show the relationship between two variables.
Stem and Leaf Displays

A stem and leaf display is a graphical method of displaying data. It is particularly useful when your data are not too
numerous. In this section, we will explain how to construct and interpret this kind of graph.
As usual, we will start with an example. Consider Figure 2.2.1 that shows the number of touchdown passes (TD passes)
thrown by each of the 31 teams in the National Football League in the 2000 season.
Figure 2.2.1 : Number of touchdown passes.

A stem and leaf display of the data is shown in Figure 2.2.2. The left portion of Figure 2.2.2 contains the stems. They are
the numbers 3, 2, 1, and 0, arranged as a column to the left of the bars. Think of these numbers as 10’s digits. A stem of 3,
for example, can be used to represent the 10’s digit in any of the numbers from 30 to 39. The numbers to the right of the
bar are leaves, and they represent the 1’s digits. Every leaf in the graph therefore stands for the result of adding the leaf to
10 times its stem.
Figure 2.2.2 : Stem and leaf display of the number of touchdown passes.
To make this clear, let us examine Figure 2.2.2 more closely. In the top row, the four leaves to the right of stem 3 are 2, 3,
3, and 7. Combined with the stem, these leaves represent the numbers 32, 33, 33, and 37, which are the numbers of TD
passes for the first four teams in Figure 2.2.1. The next row has a stem of 2 and 12 leaves. Together, they represent 12 data
points, namely, two occurrences of 20 TD passes, three occurrences of 21 TD passes, three occurrences of 22 TD passes,
one occurrence of 23 TD passes, two occurrences of 28 TD passes, and one occurrence of 29 TD passes. We leave it to you
to figure out what the third row represents. The fourth row has a stem of 0 and two leaves. It stands for the last two entries
in Figure 2.2.1, namely 9 TD passes and 6 TD passes. (The latter two numbers may be thought of as 09 and 06.)

One purpose of a stem and leaf display is to clarify the shape of the distribution. You can see many facts about TD passes
more easily in Figure 2.2.7 than in Figure 2.2.1. For example, by looking at the stems and the shape of the plot, you can
tell that most of the teams had between 10 and 29 passing TD's, with a few having more and a few having less. The precise
numbers of TD passes can be determined by examining the leaves.
We can make our figure even more revealing by splitting each stem into two parts. Figure 2.2.3 shows how to do this. The
top row is reserved for numbers from 35 to 39 and holds only the 37 TD passes made by the first team in Figure 2.2.1. The
second row is reserved for the numbers from 30 to 34 and holds the 32, 33, and 33 TD passes made by the next three teams
in the table. You can see for yourself what the other rows represent.
Figure 2.2.3 : Stem and leaf display with the stems split in two.
Figure 2.2.3 is more revealing than Figure 2.2.2 because the latter figure lumps too many values into a single row.
Whether you should split stems in a display depends on the exact form of your data. If rows get too long with single stems,
you might try splitting them into two or more parts.
There is a variation of stem and leaf displays that is useful for comparing distributions. The two distributions are placed
back to back along a common column of stems. The result is a “back-to-back stem and leaf display.” Figure 2.2.4 shows
such a graph. It compares the numbers of TD passes in the 1998 and 2000 seasons. The stems are in the middle, the leaves
to the left are for the 1998 data, and the leaves to the right are for the 2000 data. For example, the second-to-last row shows
that in 1998 there were teams with 11, 12, and 13 TD passes, and in 2000 there were two teams with 12 and three teams
with 14 TD passes.
Figure 2.2.4 : Back-to-back stem and leaf display. The left side shows the 1998 TD data and the right side shows the 2000
TD data.
Figure 2.2.4 helps us see that the two seasons were similar, but that only in 1998 did any teams throw more than 40 TD
passes.
There are two things about the football data that make them easy to graph with stems and leaves. First, the data are limited
to whole numbers that can be represented with a one-digit stem and a one-digit leaf. Second, all the numbers are positive.
If the data include numbers with three or more digits, or contain decimals, they can be rounded to two-digit accuracy.
Negative values are also easily handled. Let us look at another example.
Figure 2.2.5 shows data from the case study Weapons and Aggression. Each value is the mean difference over a series of
trials between the times it took an experimental subject to name aggressive words (like “punch”) under two conditions. In
one condition, the words were preceded by a non-weapon word such as “bug.” In the second condition, the same words
were preceded by a weapon word such as “gun” or “knife.” The issue addressed by the experiment was whether a
preceding weapon word would speed up (or prime) pronunciation of the aggressive word compared to a non-weapon
priming word. A positive difference implies greater priming of the aggressive word by the weapon word. Negative
differences imply that the priming by the weapon word was less than for a neutral word.

Figure 2.2.5 : The effects of priming (thousandths of a second).
You see that the numbers range from 43.2 to -27.4. The first value indicates that one subject was 43.2 milliseconds faster
pronouncing aggressive words when they were preceded by weapon words than when preceded by neutral words. The
value 27.4 indicates that another subject was 27.4 milliseconds slower pronouncing aggressive words when they were
preceded by weapon words.
The data are displayed with stems and leaves in Figure 2.2.6. Since stem and leaf displays can only portray two whole
digits (one for the stem and one for the leaf) the numbers are first rounded. Thus, the value 43.2 is rounded to 43 and
represented with a stem of 4 and a leaf of 3. Similarly, 42.9 is rounded to 43. To represent negative numbers, we simply
use negative stems. For example, the bottom row of the figure represents the number –27. The second-to-last row
represents the numbers -10, -10, -15, etc. Once again, we have rounded the original values from Figure 2.2.5.
Figure 2.2.6 : Stem and leaf display with negative numbers and rounding.
Observe that the figure contains a row headed by “0” and another headed by “-0.” The stem of 0 is for numbers between 0
and 9, whereas the stem of -0 is for numbers between 0 and -9. For example, the fifth row of the table holds the numbers 1,
2, 4, 5, 5, 8, 9 and the sixth row holds 0, -6, -7, and -9. Values that are exactly 0 before rounding should be split as evenly
as possible between the “0” and “-0” rows. In Figure 2.2.5, none of the values are 0 before rounding. The “0” that appears
in the “-0” row comes from the original value of -0.2 in the table.
Although stem and leaf displays are unwieldy for large data sets, they are often useful for data sets with up to 200
observations. Figure 2.2.7 portrays the distribution of populations of 185 US cities in 1998. To be included, a city had to
have between 100,000 and 500,000 residents.
Figure 2.2.7 : Stem and leaf display of populations of 185 US cities with populations between 100,000 and 500,000 in
1988.
Since a stem and leaf plot shows only two-place accuracy, we had to round the numbers to the nearest 10,000. For example
the largest number (493,559) was rounded to 490,000 and then plotted with a stem of 4 and a leaf of 9. The fourth highest
number (463,201) was rounded to 460,000 and plotted with a stem of 4 and a leaf of 6. Thus, the stems represent units of
100,000 and the leaves represent units of 10,000. Notice that each stem value is split into five parts: 0-1, 2-3, 4-5, 67, and
8-9.

Whether your data can be suitably represented by a stem and leaf display depends on whether they can be rounded without
loss of important information. Also, their extreme values must fit into two successive digits, as the data in Figure 11 fit into
the 10,000 and 100,000 places (for leaves and stems, respectively). Deciding what kind of graph is best suited to
displaying your data thus requires good judgment. Statistics is not just recipes!
Histograms
A histogram is a graphical method for displaying the shape of a distribution. It is particularly useful when there are a large
number of observations. We begin with an example consisting of the scores of 642 students on a psychology test. The test
consists of 197 items each graded as “correct” or “incorrect.” The students' scores ranged from 46 to 167.
The first step is to create a frequency table. Unfortunately, a simple frequency table would be too big, containing over 100
rows. To simplify the table, we group scores together as shown in Table 2.2.1.
Table 2.2.1 : Grouped Frequency Distribution of Psychology Test Scores
Interval's Lower Limit Interval's Upper Limit Class Frequency
39.5 49.5 3
49.5 59.5 10
59.5 69.5 53
69.5 79.5 107
79.5 89.5 147
89.5 99.5 130
99.5 109.5 78
109.5 119.5 59
119.5 129.5 36
129.5 139.5 11
139.5 149.5 6
149.5 159.5 1
159.5 169.5 1
To create this table, the range of scores was broken into intervals, called class intervals. The first interval is from 39.5 to
49.5, the second from 49.5 to 59.5, etc. Next, the number of scores falling into each interval was counted to obtain the
class frequencies. There are three scores in the first interval, 10 in the second, etc.
Class intervals of width 10 provide enough detail about the distribution to be revealing without making the graph too
“choppy.” More information on choosing the widths of class intervals is presented later in this section. Placing the limits of
the class intervals midway between two numbers (e.g., 49.5) ensures that every score will fall in an interval rather than on
the boundary between intervals.
In a histogram, the class frequencies are represented by bars. The height of each bar corresponds to its class frequency. A
histogram of these data is shown in Figure 2.2.8.

Figure 2.2.8 : Histogram of scores on a psychology test.
The histogram makes it plain that most of the scores are in the middle of the distribution, with fewer scores in the
extremes. You can also see that the distribution is not symmetric: the scores extend to the right farther than they do to the
left. The distribution is therefore said to be skewed. (We'll have more to say about shapes of distributions in Chapter 3.)
In our example, the observations are whole numbers. Histograms can also be used when the scores are measured on a more
continuous scale such as the length of time (in milliseconds) required to perform a task. In this case, there is no need to
worry about fence sitters since they are improbable. (It would be quite a coincidence for a task to require exactly 7
seconds, measured to the nearest thousandth of a second.) We are therefore free to choose whole numbers as boundaries
for our class intervals, for example, 4000, 5000, etc. The class frequency is then the number of observations that are
greater than or equal to the lower bound, and strictly less than the upper bound. For example, one interval might hold times
from 4000 to 4999 milliseconds. Using whole numbers as boundaries avoids a cluttered appearance, and is the practice of
many computer programs that create histograms. Note also that some computer programs label the middle of each interval
rather than the end points.
Histograms can be based on relative frequencies instead of actual frequencies. Histograms based on relative frequencies
show the proportion of scores in each interval rather than the number of scores. In this case, the Y-axis runs from 0 to 1 (or
somewhere in between if there are no extreme proportions). You can change a histogram based on frequencies to one based
on relative frequencies by (a) dividing each class frequency by the total number of observations, and then (b) plotting the
quotients on the Y-axis (labeled as proportion).
There is more to be said about the widths of the class intervals, sometimes called bin widths. Your choice of bin width
determines the number of class intervals. This decision, along with the choice of starting point for the first interval, affects
the shape of the histogram. The best advice is to experiment with different choices of width, and to choose a histogram
according to how well it communicates the shape of the distribution.
Frequency Polygons
Frequency polygons are a graphical device for understanding the shapes of distributions. They serve the same purpose as
histograms, but are especially helpful for comparing sets of data. Frequency polygons are also a good choice for displaying
cumulative frequency distributions.
To create a frequency polygon, start just as for histograms, by choosing a class interval. Then draw an X-axis representing
the values of the scores in your data. Mark the middle of each class interval with a tick mark, and label it with the middle
value represented by the class. Draw the Y-axis to indicate the frequency of each class. Place a point in the middle of each
class interval at the height corresponding to its frequency. Finally, connect the points. You should include one class interval
below the lowest value in your data and one above the highest value. The graph will then touch the X-axis on both sides.
A frequency polygon for 642 psychology test scores shown in Figure 2.2.8 was constructed from the frequency table
shown in Table 2.2.2.
Table 2.2.2 : Frequency Distribution of Psychology Test Scores
Lower Limit Upper Limit Count Cumulative Count
29.5 39.5 0 0

Lower Limit Upper Limit Count Cumulative Count
39.5 49.5 3 3
49.5 59.5 10 13
59.5 69.5 53 66
69.5 79.5 107 173
79.5 89.5 147 320
89.5 99.5 130 450
99.5 109.5 78 528
109.5 119.5 59 587
119.5 129.5 36 623
129.5 139.5 11 634
139.5 149.5 6 640
149.5 159.5 1 641
159.5 169.5 1 642
169.5 170.5 0 642
The first label on the X-axis is 35. This represents an interval extending from 29.5 to 39.5. Since the lowest test score is
46, this interval has a frequency of 0. The point labeled 45 represents the interval from 39.5 to 49.5. There are three scores
in this interval. There are 147 scores in the interval that surrounds 85.
You can easily discern the shape of the distribution from Figure 2.2.9. Most of the scores are between 65 and 115. It is
clear that the distribution is not symmetric inasmuch as good scores (to the right) trail off more gradually than poor scores
(to the left). In the terminology of Chapter 3 (where we will study shapes of distributions more systematically), the
distribution is skewed.
Figure 2.2.9 : Frequency polygon for the psychology test scores.

A cumulative frequency polygon for the same test scores is shown in Figure 2.2.10. The graph is the same as before except
that the Y value for each point is the number of students in the corresponding class interval plus all numbers in lower
intervals. For example, there are no scores in the interval labeled “35,” three in the interval “45,” and 10 in the interval
“55.” Therefore, the Y value corresponding to “55” is 13. Since 642 students took the test, the cumulative frequency for
the last interval is 642.

Figure 2.2.10 : Cumulative frequency polygon for the psychology test scores.
Frequency polygons are useful for comparing distributions. This is achieved by overlaying the frequency polygons drawn
for different data sets. Figure 2.1.3 provides an example. The data come from a task in which the goal is to move a
computer cursor to a target on the screen as fast as possible. On 20 of the trials, the target was a small rectangle; on the
other 20, the target was a large rectangle. Time to reach the target was recorded on each trial. The two distributions (one
for each target) are plotted together in Figure 2.2.11. The figure shows that, although there is some overlap in times, it
generally took longer to move the cursor to the small target than to the large one.
Figure 2.2.11 : Overlaid frequency polygons.

It is also possible to plot two cumulative frequency distributions in the same graph. This is illustrated in Figure 2.2.12
using the same data from the cursor task. The difference in distributions for the two targets is again evident.
Figure 2.2.12 : Overlaid cumulative frequency polygons.

Box Plots We have already discussed techniques for visually representing data (see histograms and frequency polygons).
In this section we present another important graph, called a box plot. Box plots are useful for identifying outliers and for

comparing distributions. We will explain box plots with the help of data from an in-class experiment. Students in
Introductory Statistics were presented with a page containing 30 colored rectangles. Their task was to name the colors as
quickly as possible. Their times (in seconds) were recorded. We'll compare the scores for the 16 men and 31 women who
participated in the experiment by making separate box plots for each gender. Such a display is said to involve parallel box
plots.
There are several steps in constructing a box plot. The first relies on the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles in the distribution
of scores. Figure 2.2.14 shows how these three statistics are used. For each gender we draw a box extending from the 25th
percentile to the 75th percentile. The 50th percentile is drawn inside the box. Therefore, the bottom of each box is the 25th
percentile, the top is the 75th percentile, and the line in the middle is the 50th percentile. The data for the women in our
sample are shown in Figure 2.2.13.
Figure 2.2.13 : Women's times.

For these data, the 25th percentile is 17, the 50th percentile is 19, and the 75th percentile is 20. For the men (whose data
are not shown), the 25th percentile is 19, the 50th percentile is 22.5, and the 75th percentile is 25.5.
Figure 2.2.14 : The first step in creating box plots.

Before proceeding, the terminology in Table 2.2.3 is helpful.
Table 2.2.3 : Box plot terms and values for women's times.
Name Formula Value
Upper Hinge 75th Percentile 20
Lower Hinge 25th Percentile 17

H-Spread Upper Hinge - Lower Hinge 3
Step 1.5 x H-Spread 4.5
Upper Inner Fence Upper Hinge + 1 Step 24.5
Lower Inner Fence Lower Hinge - 1 Step 12.5
Upper Outer Fence Upper Hinge + 2 Steps 29
Lower Outer Fence Lower Hinge - 2 Steps 8
Upper Adjacent Largest value below Upper Inner Fence 24
Lower Adjacent Smallest value above Lower Inner Fence 14
A value beyond an Inner Fence but not
Outside Value 29
beyond an Outer Fence
Far Out Value A value beyond an Outer Fence None
Continuing with the box plots, we put “whiskers” above and below each box to give additional information about the
spread of data. Whiskers are vertical lines that end in a horizontal stroke. Whiskers are drawn from the upper and lower
hinges to the upper and lower adjacent values (24 and 14 for the women's data), as shown in Figure 2.2.15.

Figure 2.2.15 : The box plots with the whiskers drawn.
Although we don't draw whiskers all the way to outside or far out values, we still wish to represent them in our box plots.
This is achieved by adding additional marks beyond the whiskers. Specifically, outside values are indicated by small “o's”
and far out values are indicated by asterisks (*). In our data, there are no farout values and just one outside value. This
outside value of 29 is for the women and is shown in Figure 2.2.16.
Figure 2.2.16 : The box plots with the outside value shown.
There is one more mark to include in box plots (although sometimes it is omitted). We indicate the mean score for a group
by inserting a plus sign. Figure 2.2.17 shows the result of adding means to our box plots.
Figure 2.2.17 : The completed box plots.

Figure 2.2.17 provides a revealing summary of the data. Since half the scores in a distribution are between the hinges
(recall that the hinges are the 25th and 75th percentiles), we see that half the women's times are between 17 and 20 seconds
whereas half the men's times are between 19 and 25.5 seconds. We also see that women generally named the colors faster
than the men did, although one woman was slower than almost all of the men. Figure 2.2.18 shows the box plot for the
women's data with detailed labels.

Figure 2.2.18 : The box plots for the women's data with detailed labels.
Box plots provide basic information about a distribution. For example, a distribution with a positive skew would have a
longer whisker in the positive direction than in the negative direction. A larger mean than median would also indicate a
positive skew. Box plots are good at portraying extreme values and are especially good at showing differences between
distributions. However, many of the details of a distribution are not revealed in a box plot and to examine these details one
should use create a histogram and/or a stem and leaf display.
Bar Charts
In the section on qualitative variables, we saw how bar charts could be used to illustrate the frequencies of different
categories. For example, the bar chart shown in Figure 2.2.19 shows how many purchasers of iMac computers were
previous Macintosh users, previous Windows users, and new computer purchasers.
Figure 2.2.19 : iMac buyers as a function of previous computer ownership.

In this section we show how bar charts can be used to present other kinds of quantitative information, not just frequency
counts. The bar chart in Figure 2.2.20 shows the percent increases in the Dow Jones, Standard and Poor 500 (S & P), and
Nasdaq stock indexes from May 24th 2000 to May 24th 2001. Notice that both the S & P and the Nasdaq had “negative
increases” which means that they decreased in value. In this bar chart, the Y-axis is not frequency but rather the signed
quantity percentage increase.
Figure 2.2.20 : Percent increase in three stock indexes from May 24th 2000 to May 24th 2001.
Bar charts are particularly effective for showing change over time. Figure 2.2.21, for example, shows the percent increase
in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over four three-month periods. The fluctuation in inflation is apparent in the graph.

Figure 2.2.21 : Percent change in the CPI over time. Each bar represents percent increase for the three months ending at the
date indicated.
Bar charts are often used to compare the means of different experimental conditions. Figure 2.1.4 shows the mean time it
took one of us (DL) to move the cursor to either a small target or a large target. On average, more time was required for
small targets than for large ones.
Figure 2.2.22 : Bar chart showing the means for the two conditions.
Although bar charts can display means, we do not recommend them for this purpose. Box plots should be used instead
since they provide more information than bar charts without taking up more space. For example, a box plot of the cursor-
movement data is shown in Figure 2.2.23. You can see that Figure 2.2.23 reveals more about the distribution of movement
times than does Figure 2.2.22.
Figure 2.2.23 : Box plots of times to move the cursor to the small and large targets.
The section on qualitative variables presented earlier in this chapter discussed the use of bar charts for comparing
distributions. Some common graphical mistakes were also noted. The earlier discussion applies equally well to the use of
bar charts to display quantitative variables.

Line Graphs
A line graph is a bar graph with the tops of the bars represented by points joined by lines (the rest of the bar is suppressed).
For example, Figure 2.2.24 was presented in the section on bar charts and shows changes in the Consumer Price Index
(CPI) over time.
Figure 2.2.24 : A bar chart of the percent change in the CPI over time. Each bar represents percent increase for the three
months ending at the date indicated.
A line graph of these same data is shown in Figure 2.2.25. Although the figures are similar, the line graph emphasizes the
change from period to period.
Figure 2.2.25 : A line graph of the percent change in the CPI over time. Each point represents percent increase for the three
months ending at the date indicated.
Line graphs are appropriate only when both the X- and Y-axes display ordered (rather than qualitative) variables. Although
bar charts can also be used in this situation, line graphs are generally better at comparing changes over time. Figure 2.2.26,
for example, shows percent increases and decreases in five components of the CPI. The figure makes it easy to see that
medical costs had a steadier progression than the other components. Although you could create an analogous bar chart, its
interpretation would not be as easy.

Figure 2.2.26 : A line graph of the percent change in five components of the CPI over time.
Let us stress that it is misleading to use a line graph when the X-axis contains merely qualitative variables. Figure 2.2.27
inappropriately shows a line graph of the card game data from Yahoo, discussed in the section on qualitative variables. The
defect in Figure 2.2.27 is that it gives the false impression that the games are naturally ordered in a numerical way.
Figure 2.2.27 : A line graph, inappropriately used, depicting the number of people playing different card games on
Wednesday and Sunday.
The Shape of Distribution

Finally, it is useful to present discussion on how we describe the shapes of distributions, which we will revisit in the next
chapter to learn how different shapes affect our numerical descriptors of data and distributions.
The primary characteristic we are concerned about when assessing the shape of a distribution is whether the distribution is
symmetrical or skewed. A symmetrical distribution, as the name suggests, can be cut down the center to form 2 mirror
images. Although in practice we will never get a perfectly symmetrical distribution, we would like our data to be as close
to symmetrical as possible for reasons we delve into in Chapter 3. Many types of distributions are symmetrical, but by far
the most common and pertinent distribution at this point is the normal distribution, shown in Figure 2.2.28. Notice that
although the symmetry is not perfect (for instance, the bar just to the right of the center is taller than the one just to the
left), the two sides are roughly the same shape. The normal distribution has a single peak, known as the center, and two
tails that extend out equally, forming what is known as a bell shape or bell curve.

Figure 2.2.28 : A symmetrical distribution
Symmetrical distributions can also have multiple peaks. Figure 2.2.29 shows a bimodal distribution, named for the two
peaks that lie roughly symmetrically on either side of the center point. As we will see in the next chapter, this is not a
particularly desirable characteristic of our data, and, worse, this is a relatively difficult characteristic to detect numerically.
Thus, it is important to visualize your data before moving ahead with any formal analyses.
Figure 2.2.29 : A bimodal distribution.

Distributions that are not symmetrical also come in many forms, more than can be described here. The most common
asymmetry to be encountered is referred to as skew, in which one of the two tails of the distribution is disproportionately
longer than the other. This property can affect the value of the averages we use in our analyses and make them an
inaccurate representation of our data, which causes many problems.
Skew can either be positive or negative (also known as right or left, respectively), based on which tail is longer. It is very
easy to get the two confused at first; many students want to describe the skew by where the bulk of the data (larger portion
of the histogram, known as the body) is placed, but the correct determination is based on which tail is longer. You can
think of the tail as an arrow: whichever direction the arrow is pointing is the direction of the skew. Figures 2.2.30 and
2.2.31 show positive (right) and negative (left) skew, respectively.
Figure 2.2.30 : A positively skewed distribution.

Figure 2.2.31 : A negatively skewed distribution .

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2.E: Describing Data using Distributions and Graphs (Exercises)
1. Name some ways to graph quantitative variables and some ways to graph qualitative variables.
Answer:
Qualitative variables are displayed using pie charts and bar charts. Quantitative variables are displayed as box plots,
histograms, etc.
2. Given the following data, construct a pie chart and a bar chart. Which do you think is the more appropriate or useful
way to display the data?
Favorite Movie Genre Frequency
Comedy 14
Horror 9
Romance 8
Action 12
3. Pretend you are constructing a histogram for describing the distribution of salaries for individuals who are 40 years or
older, but are not yet retired.
a. What is on the Y-axis? Explain.
b. What is on the X-axis? Explain.
c. What would be the probable shape of the salary distribution? Explain why.
Answer:
[You do not need to draw the histogram, only describe it below]
a. The Y-axis would have the frequency or proportion because this is always the case in histograms
b. The X-axis has income, because this is out quantitative variable of interest
c. Because most income data are positively skewed, this histogram would likely be skewed positively too
4. A graph appears below showing the number of adults and children who prefer each type of soda. There were 130 adults
and kids surveyed. Discuss some ways in which the graph below could be improved.
5. Which of the box plots on the graph has a large positive skew? Which has a large negative skew?

Answer:
Chart B has the positive skew because the outliers (dots and asterisks) are on the upper (higher) end; chart C has the
negative skew because the outliers are on the lower end.
6. Create a histogram of the following data representing how many shows children said they watch each day:
Number of TV Shows Frequency
0 2
1 18
2 36
3 7
4 3
7. Explain the differences between bar charts and histograms. When would each be used?
Answer:
In bar charts, the bars do not touch; in histograms, the bars do touch. Bar charts are appropriate for qualitative
variables, whereas histograms are better for quantitative variables.
8. Draw a histogram of a distribution that is

a. Negatively skewed
b. Symmetrical
c. Positively skewed
9. Based on the pie chart below, which was made from a sample of 300 students, construct a frequency table of college
majors.

Answer:
Use the following dataset for the computations below:
Major Frequency
Psychology 144
Biology 120
Chemistry 24
Physics 12
10. Create a histogram of the following data. Label the tails and body and determine if it is skewed (and direction, if so) or
symmetrical.
Hours worked per week Proportion
0 -10 4
10 -20 8
20 - 30 11
30 - 40 51
40 - 50 12
50 - 60 9
60+ 5

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CHAPTER OVERVIEW
3: MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY AND SPREAD
Now that we have visualized our data to understand its shape, we can begin with numerical analyses. The descriptive statistics presented in
this chapter serve to describe the distribution of our data objectively and mathematically – out first step into statistical analysis! The topics
here will serve as the basis for everything we do in the rest of the course.
3.1: WHAT IS CENTRAL TENDENCY?

3.2: MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY
This section defines the three most common measures of central tendency: the mean, the median, and the mode. The relationships among
these measures of central tendency and the definitions given in the previous section will probably not be obvious to you.
3.3: SPREAD AND VARIABILITY

3.E: MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY AND SPREAD (EXERCISES)
1 2/18/2022
3.1: What is Central Tendency?
What is “central tendency,” and why do we want to know the central tendency of a group of scores? Let us first try to
answer these questions intuitively. Then we will proceed to a more formal discussion.
Imagine this situation: You are in a class with just four other students, and the five of you took a 5-point pop quiz. Today
your instructor is walking around the room, handing back the quizzes. She stops at your desk and hands you your paper.
Written in bold black ink on the front is “3/5.” How do you react? Are you happy with your score of 3 or disappointed?
How do you decide? You might calculate your percentage correct, realize it is 60%, and be appalled. But it is more likely
that when deciding how to react to your performance, you will want additional information. What additional information
would you like?
If you are like most students, you will immediately ask your neighbors, “Whad'ja get?” and then ask the instructor, “How
did the class do?” In other words, the additional information you want is how your quiz score compares to other students'
scores. You therefore understand the importance of comparing your score to the class distribution of scores. Should your
score of 3 turn out to be among the higher scores, then you'll be pleased after all. On the other hand, if 3 is among the
lower scores in the class, you won't be quite so happy.
This idea of comparing individual scores to a distribution of scores is fundamental to statistics. So let's explore it further,
using the same example (the pop quiz you took with your four classmates). Three possible outcomes are shown in Table
3.1.1. They are labeled “Dataset A,” “Dataset B,” and “Dataset C.” Which of the three datasets would make you happiest?
In other words, in comparing your score with your fellow students' scores, in which dataset would your score of 3 be the
most impressive?
Table 3.1.1 : Three possible datasets for the 5-point make-up quiz.
Student Dataset A Dataset B Dataset C
You 3 3 3
John's 3 4 2
Maria's 3 4 2
Shareecia's 3 4 2
Luther's 3 5 1
In Dataset A, everyone's score is 3. This puts your score at the exact center of the distribution. You can draw satisfaction
from the fact that you did as well as everyone else. But of course it cuts both ways: everyone else did just as well as you.
Now consider the possibility that the scores are described as in Dataset B. This is a depressing outcome even though your
score is no different than the one in Dataset A. The problem is that the other four students had higher grades, putting yours
below the center of the distribution.
Finally, let's look at Dataset C. This is more like it! All of your classmates score lower than you so your score is above the
center of the distribution.
Now let's change the example in order to develop more insight into the center of a distribution. Figure 3.1.1 shows the
results of an experiment on memory for chess positions. Subjects were shown a chess position and then asked to
reconstruct it on an empty chess board. The number of pieces correctly placed was recorded. This was repeated for two
more chess positions. The scores represent the total number of chess pieces correctly placed for the three chess positions.
The maximum possible score was 89.

Figure 3.1.1 : Back-to-back stem and leaf display. The left side shows the memory scores of the non-players. The right side
shows the scores of the tournament players.
Two groups are compared. On the left are people who don't play chess. On the right are people who play a great deal
(tournament players). It is clear that the location of the center of the distribution for the non-players is much lower than the
center of the distribution for the tournament players.
We're sure you get the idea now about the center of a distribution. It is time to move beyond intuition. We need a formal
definition of the center of a distribution. In fact, we'll offer you three definitions! This is not just generosity on our part.
There turn out to be (at least) three different ways of thinking about the center of a distribution, all of them useful in
various contexts. In the remainder of this section we attempt to communicate the idea behind each concept. In the
succeeding sections we will give statistical measures for these concepts of central tendency.
Definitions of Center
Now we explain the three different ways of defining the center of a distribution. All three are called measures of central
tendency.
Balance Scale
One definition of central tendency is the point at which the distribution is in balance. Figure 3.1.2 shows the distribution of
the five numbers 2, 3, 4, 9, 16 placed upon a balance scale. If each number weighs one pound, and is placed at its position
along the number line, then it would be possible to balance them by placing a fulcrum at 6.8.
Figure 3.1.2 : A balance scale.

For another example, consider the distribution shown in Figure 3.1.3 . It is balanced by placing the fulcrum in the
geometric middle.
Figure 3.1.3 : A distribution balanced on the tip of a triangle.

Figure 3.1.4 illustrates that the same distribution can't be balanced by placing the fulcrum to the left of center.

Figure 3.1.4 : The distribution is not balanced.
Figure 3.1.5 shows an asymmetric distribution. To balance it, we cannot put the fulcrum halfway between the lowest and
highest values (as we did in Figure 3.1.3). Placing the fulcrum at the “half way” point would cause it to tip towards the
left.
Figure 3.1.5 An asymmetric distribution balanced on the tip of a triangle.

Smallest Absolute Deviation Another way to define the center of a distribution is based on the concept of the sum of the
absolute deviations (differences). Consider the distribution made up of the five numbers 2, 3, 4, 9, 16. Let's see how far the
distribution is from 10 (picking a number arbitrarily). Table 3.1.2 shows the sum of the absolute deviations of these
numbers from the number 10.
Table 3.1.2 : An example of the sum of absolute deviations
Values Absolute Deviations from 10
2 8
3 7
4 6
9 1
16 6
Sum 28
The first row of the table shows that the absolute value of the difference between 2 and 10 is 8; the second row shows that
the absolute difference between 3 and 10 is 7, and similarly for the other rows. When we add up the five absolute
deviations, we get 28. So, the sum of the absolute deviations from 10 is 28. Likewise, the sum of the absolute deviations
from 5 equals 3 + 2 + 1 + 4 + 11 = 21. So, the sum of the absolute deviations from 5 is smaller than the sum of the absolute
deviations from 10. In this sense, 5 is closer, overall, to the other numbers than is 10.
We are now in a position to define a second measure of central tendency, this time in terms of absolute deviations.
Specifically, according to our second definition, the center of a distribution is the number for which the sum of the absolute
deviations is smallest. As we just saw, the sum of the absolute deviations from 10 is 28 and the sum of the absolute
deviations from 5 is 21. Is there a value for which the sum of the absolute deviations is even smaller than 21? Yes. For
these data, there is a value for which the sum of absolute deviations is only 20. See if you can find it.
Smallest Squared Deviation

We shall discuss one more way to define the center of a distribution. It is based on the concept of the sum of squared
deviations (differences). Again, consider the distribution of the five numbers 2, 3, 4, 9, 16. Table 3.1.3 shows the sum of
the squared deviations of these numbers from the number 10.

Table 3.1.3: An example of the sum of squared deviations
Values Squared Deviations from 10
2 64
3 49
4 36
9 1
16 36
Sum 186
The first row in the table shows that the squared value of the difference between 2 and 10 is 64; the second row shows that
the squared difference between 3 and 10 is 49, and so forth. When we add up all these squared deviations, we get 186.
Changing the target from 10 to 5, we calculate the sum of the squared deviations from 5 as 9 + 4 + 1 + 16 + 121 = 151. So,
the sum of the squared deviations from 5 is smaller than the sum of the squared deviations from 10. Is there a value for
which the sum of the squared deviations is even smaller than 151? Yes, it is possible to reach 134.8. Can you find the
target number for which the sum of squared deviations is 134.8?
The target that minimizes the sum of squared deviations provides another useful definition of central tendency (the last one
to be discussed in this section). It can be challenging to find the value that minimizes this sum.

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3.2: Measures of Central Tendency
In the previous section we saw that there are several ways to define central tendency. This section defines the three most
common measures of central tendency: the mean, the median, and the mode. The relationships among these measures of
central tendency and the definitions given in the previous section will probably not be obvious to you.
This section gives only the basic definitions of the mean, median and mode. A further discussion of the relative merits and
proper applications of these statistics is presented in a later section.
Arithmetic Mean
The arithmetic mean is the most common measure of central tendency. It is simply the sum of the numbers divided by the
¯
¯¯¯
number of numbers. The symbol “μ ” (pronounced “mew”) is used for the mean of a population. The symbol “X ”
(pronounced “X-bar”) is used for the mean of a sample. The formula for μ is shown below:
∑X
μ = (3.2.1)
N
where ΣX is the sum of all the numbers in the population and N is the number of numbers in the population.
¯
¯¯¯
The formula for X is essentially identical:
¯
¯¯¯
∑X
X = (3.2.2)
N
where ΣX is the sum of all the numbers in the sample and N is the number of numbers in the sample. The only distinction
between these two equations is whether we are referring to the population (in which case we use the parameter μ ) or a
¯
¯¯¯
sample of that population (in which case we use the statistic X ).
As an example, the mean of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 6, 8 is 20/5 = 4 regardless of whether the numbers constitute the entire
population or just a sample from the population.
Figure 3.2.1 shows the number of touchdown (TD) passes thrown by each of the 31 teams in the National Football League
in the 2000 season. The mean number of touchdown passes thrown is 20.45 as shown below.
∑X 634
μ = = = 20.45
N 31
Figure 3.2.1 : Number of touchdown passes.

Although the arithmetic mean is not the only “mean” (there is also a geometric mean, a harmonic mean, and many others
that are all beyond the scope of this course), it is by far the most commonly used. Therefore, if the term “mean” is used
without specifying whether it is the arithmetic mean, the geometric mean, or some other mean, it is assumed to refer to the
arithmetic mean.
Median The median is also a frequently used measure of central tendency. The median is the midpoint of a distribution: the
same number of scores is above the median as below it. For the data in Figure 3.2.1, there are 31 scores. The 16th highest
score (which equals 20) is the median because there are 15 scores below the 16th score and 15 scores above the 16th score.
The median can also be thought of as the 50th percentile.
When there is an odd number of numbers, the median is simply the middle number. For example, the median of 2, 4, and 7
is 4. When there is an even number of numbers, the median is the mean of the two middle numbers. Thus, the median of
the numbers 2, 4, 7, 12 is:
4 +7
= 5.5
2

When there are numbers with the same values, each appearance of that value gets counted. For example, in the set of
numbers 1, 3, 4, 4, 5, 8, and 9, the median is 4 because there are three numbers (1, 3, and 4) below it and three numbers (5,
8, and 9) above it. If we only counted 4 once, the median would incorrectly be calculated at 4.5 (4+5 divided by 2). When
in doubt, writing out all of the numbers in order and marking them off one at a time from the top and bottom will always
lead you to the correct answer.
Mode
The mode is the most frequently occurring value in the dataset. For the data in Figure 3.2.1, the mode is 18 since more
teams (4) had 18 touchdown passes than any other number of touchdown passes. With continuous data, such as response
time measured to many decimals, the frequency of each value is one since no two scores will be exactly the same (see
discussion of continuous variables). Therefore the mode of continuous data is normally computed from a grouped
frequency distribution. Table 3.2.1 shows a grouped frequency distribution for the target response time data. Since the
interval with the highest frequency is 600-700, the mode is the middle of that interval (650). Though the mode is not
frequently used for continuous data, it is nevertheless an important measure of central tendency as it is the only measure
we can use on qualitative or categorical data.
Table 3.2.1 : Grouped frequency distribution
Range Frequency
500 - 600 3
600 - 700 6
700 - 800 5
800 - 900 5
900 - 1000 0
1000 - 1100 1
More on the Mean and Median

In the section “What is central tendency,” we saw that the center of a distribution could be defined three ways:
1. the point on which a distribution would balance
2. the value whose average absolute deviation from all the other values is minimized
3. the value whose squared difference from all the other values is minimized.
The mean is the point on which a distribution would balance, the median is the value that minimizes the sum of absolute
deviations, and the mean is the value that minimizes the sum of the squared deviations.
Table 3.2.2 shows the absolute and squared deviations of the numbers 2, 3, 4, 9, and 16 from their median of 4 and their
mean of 6.8. You can see that the sum of absolute deviations from the median (20) is smaller than the sum of absolute
deviations from the mean (22.8). On the other hand, the sum of squared deviations from the median (174) is larger than the
sum of squared deviations from the mean (134.8).
Table 3.2.2 : Absolute & squared deviations from the median of 4 and the mean of 6.8.
Absolute Deviation from Absolute Deviation from Squared Deviation from Squared Deviation from
Value
Median Mean Median Mean
2 2 4.8 4 23.04
3 1 3.8 1 14.44
4 0 2.8 0 7.84
9 5 2.2 25 4.84
16 12 9.2 144 84.64
Total 20 22.8 174 134.8
Figure 3.2.2 shows that the distribution balances at the mean of 6.8 and not at the median of 4. The relative advantages and
disadvantages of the mean and median are discussed in the section “Comparing Measures” later in this chapter.

Figure 3.2.2 : The distribution balances at the mean of 6.8 and not at the median of 4.0.
When a distribution is symmetric, then the mean and the median are the same. Consider the following distribution: 1, 3, 4,
5, 6, 7, 9. The mean and median are both 5. The mean, median, and mode are identical in the bell-shaped normal
distribution.
Comparing Measures of Central Tendency

How do the various measures of central tendency compare with each other? For symmetric distributions, the mean and
median, as is the mode except in bimodal distributions. Differences among the measures occur with skewed distributions.
Figure 3.2.3 shows the distribution of 642 scores on an introductory psychology test. Notice this distribution has a slight
positive skew.
Figure 3.2.3 : A distribution with a positive skew.

Measures of central tendency are shown in Table 3.2.3. Notice they do not differ greatly, with the exception that the mode
is considerably lower than the other measures. When distributions have a positive skew, the mean is typically higher than
the median, although it may not be in bimodal distributions. For these data, the mean of 91.58 is higher than the median of
90. This pattern holds true for any skew: the mode will remain at the highest point in the distribution, the median will be
pulled slightly out into the skewed tail (the longer end of the distribution), and the mean will be pulled the farthest out.
Thus, the mean is more sensitive to skew than the median or mode, and in cases of extreme skew, the mean may no longer
be appropriate to use.
Table 3.2.3 : Measures of central tendency for the test scores.
Measure Value
Mode 84.00
Median 90.00
Mean 91.58
The distribution of baseball salaries (in 1994) shown in Figure 3.2.4 has a much more pronounced skew than the
distribution in Figure 3.2.3.

Figure 3.2.3 : A distribution with a very large positive skew. This histogram shows the salaries of major league baseball
players (in thousands of dollars).
Table 3.2.4 shows the measures of central tendency for these data. The large skew results in very different values for these
measures. No single measure of central tendency is sufficient for data such as these. If you were asked the very general
question: “So, what do baseball players make?” and answered with the mean of $1,183,000, you would not have told the
whole story since only about one third of baseball players make that much. If you answered with the mode of $250,000 or
the median of $500,000, you would not be giving any indication that some players make many millions of dollars.
Fortunately, there is no need to summarize a distribution with a single number. When the various measures differ, our
opinion is that you should report the mean and median. Sometimes it is worth reporting the mode as well. In the media, the
median is usually reported to summarize the center of skewed distributions. You will hear about median salaries and
median prices of houses sold, etc. This is better than reporting only the mean, but it would be informative to hear more
statistics.
Table 3.2.4 : Measures of central tendency for baseball salaries (in thousands of dollars).
Measure Value
Mode 250
Median 500
Mean 1,183

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3.3: Spread and Variability
Variability refers to how “spread out” a group of scores is. To see what we mean by spread out, consider graphs in Figure 3.3.1.
These graphs represent the scores on two quizzes. The mean score for each quiz is 7.0. Despite the equality of means, you can see
that the distributions are quite different. Specifically, the scores on Quiz 1 are more densely packed and those on Quiz 2 are more
spread out. The differences among students were much greater on Quiz 2 than on Quiz 1.
Figure 3.3.1 : Bar chart of quiz one.
Figure 3.3.2 : Bar chart of quiz two.

The terms variability, spread, and dispersion are synonyms, and refer to how spread out a distribution is. Just as in the section on
central tendency where we discussed measures of the center of a distribution of scores, in this chapter we will discuss measures of
the variability of a distribution. There are three frequently used measures of variability: range, variance, and standard deviation. In
the next few paragraphs, we will look at each of these measures of variability in more detail.
Range
The range is the simplest measure of variability to calculate, and one you have probably encountered many times in your life. The
range is simply the highest score minus the lowest score. Let’s take a few examples. What is the range of the following group of
numbers: 10, 2, 5, 6, 7, 3, 4? Well, the highest number is 10, and the lowest number is 2, so 10 - 2 = 8. The range is 8. Let’s take
another example. Here’s a dataset with 10 numbers: 99, 45, 23, 67, 45, 91, 82, 78, 62, 51. What is the range? The highest number is
99 and the lowest number is 23, so 99 - 23 equals 76; the range is 76. Now consider the two quizzes shown in Figure 3.3.1 and
Figure 3.3.2. On Quiz 1, the lowest score is 5 and the highest score is 9. Therefore, the range is 4. The range on Quiz 2 was larger:
the lowest score was 4 and the highest score was 10. Therefore the range is 6.
The problem with using range is that it is extremely sensitive to outliers, and one number far away from the rest of the data will
greatly alter the value of the range. For example, in the set of numbers 1, 3, 4, 4, 5, 8, and 9, the range is 8 (9 – 1).
However, if we add a single person whose score is nowhere close to the rest of the scores, say, 20, the range more than doubles
from 8 to 19.
Interquartile Range
The interquartile range (IQR) is the range of the middle 50% of the scores in a distribution and is sometimes used to communicate
where the bulk of the data in the distribution are located. It is computed as follows:
IQR = 75th percentile − 25th percentile (3.3.1)

For Quiz 1, the 75th percentile is 8 and the 25th percentile is 6. The interquartile range is therefore 2. For Quiz 2, which has greater
spread, the 75th percentile is 9, the 25th percentile is 5, and the interquartile range is 4. Recall that in the discussion of box plots,
the 75th percentile was called the upper hinge and the 25th percentile was called the lower hinge. Using this terminology, the
interquartile range is referred to as the H-spread.
Sum of Squares
Variability can also be defined in terms of how close the scores in the distribution are to the middle of the distribution. Using the
mean as the measure of the middle of the distribution, we can see how far, on average, each data point is from the center. The data
¯¯¯
¯
from Quiz 1 are shown in Table 3.3.1. The mean score is 7.0 (ΣX/N = 140/20 = 7). Therefore, the column “X − X ” contains
deviations (how far each score deviates from the mean), here calculated as the score minus 7. The column “(X − X ) ” has the
¯¯¯
¯ 2
“Squared Deviations” and is simply the previous column squared.

There are a few things to note about how Table 3.3.1 is formatted, as this is the format you will use to calculate variance (and,
soon, standard deviation). The raw data scores (X ) are always placed in the left-most column. This column is then summed at the
bottom to facilitate calculating the mean (simply divided this number by the number of scores in the table). Once you have the
mean, you can easily work your way down the middle column calculating the deviation scores. This column is also summed and
has a very important property: it will always sum to 0 (or close to zero if you have rounding error due to many decimal places).
This step is used as a check on your math to make sure you haven’t made a mistake. If this column sums to 0, you can move on to
filling in the third column of squared deviations. This column is summed as well and has its own name: the Sum of Squares
¯¯¯
¯ 2
(abbreviated as SS and given the formula ∑(X − X ) ). As we will see, the Sum of Squares appears again and again in different
formulas – it is a very important value, and this table makes it simple to calculate without error.
Table 3.3.1 : Calculation of Variance for Quiz 1 scores.
¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯
¯ 2
X X−X (X − X )
9 2 4
9 2 4
9 2 4
8 1 1
8 1 1
8 1 1
8 1 1
7 0 0
7 0 0
7 0 0
7 0 0
7 0 0
6 -1 1
6 -1 1
6 -1 1
6 -1 1
6 -1 1
6 -1 1
5 -2 4
5 -2 4
Σ = 140 Σ = 0 Σ = 30

Variance
Now that we have the Sum of Squares calculated, we can use it to compute our formal measure of average distance from the mean,
the variance. The variance is defined as the average squared difference of the scores from the mean. We square the deviation scores
because, as we saw in the Sum of Squares table, the sum of raw deviations is always 0, and there’s nothing we can do
mathematically without changing that.
The population parameter for variance is σ (“sigma-squared”) and is calculated as:
2
2
∑(X − μ)
2
σ = (3.3.2)
N
Notice that the numerator that formula is identical to the formula for Sum of Squares presented above with X replaced by μ . Thus,
¯¯¯
¯
we can use the Sum of Squares table to easily calculate the numerator then simply divide that value by N to get variance. If we
assume that the values in Table 3.3.1 represent the full population, then we can take our value of Sum of Squares and divide it by
N to get our population variance:
2
30
σ = = 1.5
20
So, on average, scores in this population are 1.5 squared units away from the mean. This measure of spread is much more robust (a
term used by statisticians to mean resilient or resistant to) outliers than the range, so it is a much more useful value to compute.
Additionally, as we will see in future chapters, variance plays a central role in inferential statistics.
The sample statistic used to estimate the variance is s (“s-squared”):
2
¯¯¯
¯ 2
∑(X − X )
2
s = (3.3.3)
N −1
This formula is very similar to the formula for the population variance with one change: we now divide by N – 1 instead of N . The
value N – 1 has a special name: the degrees of freedom (abbreviated as df ). You don’t need to understand in depth what degrees
of freedom are (essentially they account for the fact that we have to use a sample statistic to estimate the mean (X ) before we
¯¯¯
¯
estimate the variance) in order to calculate variance, but knowing that the denominator is called df provides a nice shorthand for
the variance formula: SS/df .
Going back to the values in Table 3.3.1 and treating those scores as a sample, we can estimate the sample variance as:
30
2
s = = 1.58 (3.3.4)
20 − 1
Notice that this value is slightly larger than the one we calculated when we assumed these scores were the full population. This is
because our value in the denominator is slightly smaller, making the final value larger. In general, as your sample size N gets
bigger, the effect of subtracting 1 becomes less and less. Comparing a sample size of 10 to a sample size of 1000; 10 – 1 = 9, or
90% of the original value, whereas 1000 – 1 = 999, or 99.9% of the original value. Thus, larger sample sizes will bring the estimate
of the sample variance closer to that of the population variance. This is a key idea and principle in statistics that we will see over
and over again: larger sample sizes better reflect the population.
Standard Deviation
The standard deviation is simply the square root of the variance. This is a useful and interpretable statistic because taking the
square root of the variance (recalling that variance is the average squared difference) puts the standard deviation back into the
original units of the measure we used. Thus, when reporting descriptive statistics in a study, scientists virtually always report mean
and standard deviation. Standard deviation is therefore the most commonly used measure of spread for our purposes.
The population parameter for standard deviation is σ (“sigma”), which, intuitively, is the square root of the variance parameter σ 2
(on occasion, the symbols work out nicely that way). The formula is simply the formula for variance under a square root sign:
−−−−−−−−−−
2
∑(X − μ)
σ =√ (3.3.5)
N
Back to our earlier example from Table 3.3.1:

−−
−
30 −
−−
σ =√ = √1.5 = 1.22
20
The sample statistic follows the same conventions and is given as s :

−−−−−−−−−− −−−
¯¯¯
¯
2
∑(X − X ) SS
s =√ =√ (3.3.6)
N −1 df
The sample standard deviation from Table 3.3.1 is:

−−−−−−
30 −−−
−
s =√ = √1.58 = 1.26
20 − 1
The standard deviation is an especially useful measure of variability when the distribution is normal or approximately normal
because the proportion of the distribution within a given number of standard deviations from the mean can be calculated. For
example, 68% of the distribution is within one standard deviation (above and below) of the mean and approximately 95% of the
distribution is within two standard deviations of the mean. Therefore, if you had a normal distribution with a mean of 50 and a
standard deviation of 10, then 68% of the distribution would be between 50 - 10 = 40 and 50 +10 =60. Similarly, about 95% of the
distribution would be between 50 - 2 x 10 = 30 and 50 + 2 x 10 = 70.
Figure 3.3.3 : Percentages of the normal distribution

Figure 3.3.4 shows two normal distributions. The red distribution has a mean of 40 and a standard deviation of 5; the blue
distribution has a mean of 60 and a standard deviation of 10. For the red distribution, 68% of the distribution is between 45 and 55;
for the blue distribution, 68% is between 50 and 70. Notice that as the standard deviation gets smaller, the distribution becomes
much narrower, regardless of where the center of the distribution (mean) is. Figure 3.3.5 presents several more examples of this
effect.
Figure 3.3.4 : Normal distributions with standard deviations of 5 and 10.

Figure 3.3.5 : Differences between two datasets.

Campus)

3.E: Measures of Central Tendency and Spread (Exercises)
1. If the mean time to respond to a stimulus is much higher than the median time to respond, what can you say about the shape of
the distribution of response times?
Answer:
If the mean is higher, that means it is farther out into the right-hand tail of the distribution. Therefore, we know this distribution
is positively skewed.
2. Compare the mean, median, and mode in terms of their sensitivity to extreme scores.
3. Your younger brother comes home one day after taking a science test. He says that someone at school told him that “60% of
the students in the class scored above the median test grade.” What is wrong with this statement? What if he had said “60% of
the students scored above the mean?”
Answer:
The median is defined as the value with 50% of scores above it and 50% of scores below it; therefore, 60% of score cannot fall
above the median. If 60% of scores fall above the mean, that would indicate that the mean has been pulled down below the
value of the median, which means that the distribution is negatively skewed
4. Make up three data sets with 5 numbers each that have:

a. the same mean but different standard deviations.
b. the same mean but different medians.
c. the same median but different means.
5. Compute the population mean and population standard deviation for the following scores (remember to use the Sum of Squares
table): 5, 7, 8, 3, 4, 4, 2, 7, 1, 6
Answer:
2
μ = 4.80, σ = 2.36
6. For the following problem, use the following scores: 5, 8, 8, 8, 7, 8, 9, 12, 8, 9, 8, 10, 7, 9, 7, 6, 9, 10, 11, 8
a. Create a histogram of these data. What is the shape of this histogram?
b. How do you think the three measures of central tendency will compare to each other in this dataset?
c. Compute the sample mean, the median, and the mode
d. Draw and label lines on your histogram for each of the above values. Do your results match your predictions?
7. Compute the range, sample variance, and sample standard deviation for the following scores: 25, 36, 41, 28, 29, 32, 39, 37, 34,
34, 37, 35, 30, 36, 31, 31
Answer:
range = 16, s 2
,
= 18.40 s = 4.29
8. Using the same values from problem 7, calculate the range, sample variance, and sample standard deviation, but this time
include 65 in the list of values. How did each of the three values change?
9. Two normal distributions have exactly the same mean, but one has a standard deviation of 20 and the other has a standard
deviation of 10. How would the shapes of the two distributions compare?
Answer:
If both distributions are normal, then they are both symmetrical, and having the same mean causes them to overlap with one
another. The distribution with the standard deviation of 10 will be narrower than the other distribution
10. Compute the sample mean and sample standard deviation for the following scores: -8, -4, -7, -6, -8, -5, -7, -9, -2, 0

Campus)

CHAPTER OVERVIEW
4: Z-SCORES AND THE STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
We now understand how to describe and present our data visually and numerically. These simple tools, and the principles behind them, will
help you interpret information presented to you and understand the basics of a variable. Moving forward, we now turn our attention to how
scores within a distribution are related to one another, how to precisely describe a score’s location within the distribution, and how to
compare scores from different distributions.
4.1: NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS

The normal distribution is the most important and most widely used distribution in statistics. It is sometimes called the “bell curve,”
although the tonal qualities of such a bell would be less than pleasing. It is also called the “Gaussian curve” of Gaussian distribution after
the mathematician Karl Friedrich Gauss.
4.2: Z-SCORES
A z -score is a standardized version of a raw score ( x ) that gives information about the relative location of that score within its
distribution.
4.3: Z-SCORES AND THE AREA UNDER THE CURVE

4.E: Z-SCORES AND THE STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION (EXERCISES)
1 2/18/2022
4.1: Normal Distributions
The normal distribution is the most important and most widely used distribution in statistics. It is sometimes called the “bell
curve,” although the tonal qualities of such a bell would be less than pleasing. It is also called the “Gaussian curve” of Gaussian
distribution after the mathematician Karl Friedrich Gauss.
Strictly speaking, it is not correct to talk about “the normal distribution” since there are many normal distributions. Normal
distributions can differ in their means and in their standard deviations. Figure 1 shows three normal distributions. The green (left-
most) distribution has a mean of -3 and a standard deviation of 0.5, the distribution in red (the middle distribution) has a mean of 0
and a standard deviation of 1, and the distribution in black (right-most) has a mean of 2 and a standard deviation of 3. These as well
as all other normal distributions are symmetric with relatively more values at the center of the distribution and relatively few in the
tails. What is consistent about all normal distribution is the shape and the proportion of scores within a given distance along the x-
axis. We will focus on the Standard Normal Distribution (also known as the Unit Normal Distribution), which has a mean of 0 and
a standard deviation of 1 (i.e. the red distribution in Figure 4.1.1).
Figure 4.1.1 : Normal distributions differing in mean and standard deviation.

Seven features of normal distributions are listed below.
1. Normal distributions are symmetric around their mean.
2. The mean, median, and mode of a normal distribution are equal.
3. The area under the normal curve is equal to 1.0.
4. Normal distributions are denser in the center and less dense in the tails.
5. Normal distributions are defined by two parameters, the mean (μ ) and the standard deviation (σ).
6. 68% of the area of a normal distribution is within one standard deviation of the mean.
7. Approximately 95% of the area of a normal distribution is within two standard deviations of the mean.
These properties enable us to use the normal distribution to understand how scores relate to one another within and across a
distribution. But first, we need to learn how to calculate the standardized score than make up a standard normal distribution.

Campus)

4.2: Z-scores
A z -score is a standardized version of a raw score (x) that gives information about the relative location of that score within
its distribution. The formula for converting a raw score into a z -score is:
x −μ
z = (4.2.1)
σ
for values from a population and for values from a sample:

¯¯¯
¯
x −X
z = (4.2.2)
s
As you can see, z -scores combine information about where the distribution is located (the mean/center) with how wide the
distribution is (the standard deviation/spread) to interpret a raw score (x). Specifically, z -scores will tell us how far the
score is away from the mean in units of standard deviations and in what direction.
The value of a z -score has two parts: the sign (positive or negative) and the magnitude (the actual number). The sign of the
z -score tells you in which half of the distribution the z-score falls: a positive sign (or no sign) indicates that the score is
above the mean and on the right hand-side or upper end of the distribution, and a negative sign tells you the score is below
the mean and on the left-hand side or lower end of the distribution. The magnitude of the number tells you, in units of
standard deviations, how far away the score is from the center or mean. The magnitude can take on any value between
negative and positive infinity, but for reasons we will see soon, they generally fall between -3 and 3.
Let’s look at some examples. A z -score value of -1.0 tells us that this z-score is 1 standard deviation (because of the
magnitude 1.0) below (because of the negative sign) the mean. Similarly, a z -score value of 1.0 tells us that this z -score is
1 standard deviation above the mean. Thus, these two scores are the same distance away from the mean but in opposite
directions. A z -score of -2.5 is two-and-a-half standard deviations below the mean and is therefore farther from the center
than both of the previous scores, and a z -score of 0.25 is closer than all of the ones before. In Unit 2, we will learn to
formalize the distinction between what we consider “close” to the center or “far” from the center. For now, we will use a
rough cut-off of 1.5 standard deviations in either direction as the difference between close scores (those within 1.5 standard
deviations or between z = -1.5 and z = 1.5) and extreme scores (those farther than 1.5 standard deviations – below z = -1.5
or above z = 1.5).
We can also convert raw scores into z -scores to get a better idea of where in the distribution those scores fall. Let’s say we
get a score of 68 on an exam. We may be disappointed to have scored so low, but perhaps it was just a very hard exam.
Having information about the distribution of all scores in the class would be helpful to put some perspective on ours. We
find out that the class got an average score of 54 with a standard deviation of 8. To find out our relative location within this
distribution, we simply convert our test score into a z -score.
X −μ 68 − 54
z = = = 1.75
σ 8
We find that we are 1.75 standard deviations above the average, above our rough cut off for close and far. Suddenly our 68
is looking pretty good!

Figure 4.2.1 : Raw and standardized versions of a single score
Figure 4.2.1 shows both the raw score and the z -score on their respective distributions. Notice that the red line indicating
where each score lies is in the same relative spot for both. This is because transforming a raw score into a z -score does not
change its relative location, it only makes it easier to know precisely where it is.
Z -scores are also useful for comparing scores from different distributions. Let’s say we take the SAT and score 501 on
both the math and critical reading sections. Does that mean we did equally well on both? Scores on the math portion are
distributed normally with a mean of 511 and standard deviation of 120, so our z -score on the math section is
501 − 511
zmath = = −0.08
120
which is just slightly below average (note that use of “math” as a subscript; subscripts are used when presenting multiple
versions of the same statistic in order to know which one is which and have no bearing on the actual calculation). The
critical reading section has a mean of 495 and standard deviation of 116, so
501 − 495
zC R = = 0.05
116
So even though we were almost exactly average on both tests, we did a little bit better on the critical reading portion
relative to other people.
Finally, z -scores are incredibly useful if we need to combine information from different measures that are on different
scales. Let’s say we give a set of employees a series of tests on things like job knowledge, personality, and leadership. We
may want to combine these into a single score we can use to rate employees for development or promotion, but look what
happens when we take the average of raw scores from different scales, as shown in Table 4.2.1:
Table 4.2.1 : Raw test scores on different scales (ranges in parentheses).
Raw Scores Job Knowledge (0 – 100) Personality (1 –5) Leadership (1 – 5) Average
Employee 1 98 4.2 1.1 34.43
Employee 2 96 3.1 4.5 34.53

Employee 3 97 2.9 3.6 34.50
Because the job knowledge scores were so big and the scores were so similar, they overpowered the other scores and
removed almost all variability in the average. However, if we standardize these scores into z -scores, our averages retain
more variability and it is easier to assess differences between employees, as shown in Table 4.2.2.
Table 4.2.2: Standardized scores.

z -Scores Job Knowledge (0 Personality (1 –5) Leadership (1 – 5) Average
– 100)
Employee 1 1.00 1.14 -1.12 0.34
Employee 2 -1.00 -0.43 0.81 -0.20
Employee 3 0.00 -0.71 0.30 -0.14
Setting the scale of a distribution

Another convenient characteristic of z -scores is that they can be converted into any “scale” that we would like. Here, the
term scale means how far apart the scores are (their spread) and where they are located (their central tendency). This can
be very useful if we don’t want to work with negative numbers or if we have a specific range we would like to present. The
formulas for transforming z to x are:
x = zσ + μ (4.2.3)
for a population and

¯¯¯
¯
x = zs + X (4.2.4)
for a sample. Notice that these are just simple rearrangements of the original formulas for calculating z from raw scores.
Let’s say we create a new measure of intelligence, and initial calibration finds that our scores have a mean of 40 and
standard deviation of 7. Three people who have scores of 52, 43, and 34 want to know how well they did on the measure.
We can convert their raw scores into z -scores:
52 − 40
z = = 1.71
7
43 − 40
z = = 0.43
7
34 − 40
z = = −0.80
7
A problem is that these new z -scores aren’t exactly intuitive for many people. We can give people information about their
relative location in the distribution (for instance, the first person scored well above average), or we can translate these z
scores into the more familiar metric of IQ scores, which have a mean of 100 and standard deviation of 16:
IQ = 1.71 ∗ 16 + 100 = 127.36
IQ = 0.43 ∗ 16 + 100 = 106.88
IQ = −0.80 ∗ 16 + 100 = 87.20
We would also likely round these values to 127, 107, and 87, respectively, for convenience.

Downtown Campus)

4.3: Z-scores and the Area under the Curve
Z -scores and the standard normal distribution go hand-in-hand. A z -score will tell you exactly where in the standard
normal distribution a value is located, and any normal distribution can be converted into a standard normal distribution by
converting all of the scores in the distribution into z -scores, a process known as standardization.
We saw in the previous chapter that standard deviations can be used to divide the normal distribution: 68% of the
distribution falls within 1 standard deviation of the mean, 95% within (roughly) 2 standard deviations, and 99.7% within 3
standard deviations. Because z -scores are in units of standard deviations, this means that 68% of scores fall between z =
-1.0 and z = 1.0 and so on. We call this 68% (or any percentage we have based on our z -scores) the proportion of the area
under the curve. Any area under the curve is bounded by (defined by, delineated by, etc.) by a single z -score or pair of z -
scores.
An important property to point out here is that, by virtue of the fact that the total area under the curve of a distribution is
always equal to 1.0 (see section on Normal Distributions at the beginning of this chapter), these areas under the curve can
be added together or subtracted from 1 to find the proportion in other areas. For example, we know that the area between z
= -1.0 and z = 1.0 (i.e. within one standard deviation of the mean) contains 68% of the area under the curve, which can be
represented in decimal form at 0.6800 (to change a percentage to a decimal, simply move the decimal point 2 places to the
left). Because the total area under the curve is equal to 1.0, that means that the proportion of the area outside z = -1.0 and z
= 1.0 is equal to 1.0 – 0.6800 = 0.3200 or 32% (see Figure 4.3.1 below). This area is called the area in the tails of the
distribution. Because this area is split between two tails and because the normal distribution is symmetrical, each tail has
exactly one-half, or 16%, of the area under the curve.
Figure 4.3.1 : Shaded areas represent the area under the curve in the tails
We will have much more to say about this concept in the coming chapters. As it turns out, this is a quite powerful idea that
enables us to make statements about how likely an outcome is and what that means for research questions we would like to
answer and hypotheses we would like to test. But first, we need to make a brief foray into some ideas about probability.

Downtown Campus)

4.E: Z-scores and the Standard Normal Distribution (Exercises)
1. What are the two pieces of information contained in a z -score?
Answer:
The location above or below the mean (from the sign of the number) and the distance in standard deviations away from the
mean (from the magnitude of the number).
2. A z -score takes a raw score and standardizes it into units of ________.

3. Assume the following 5 scores represent a sample: 2, 3, 5, 5, 6. Transform these scores into z -scores.
Answer:
¯
¯¯
X
¯
= 4.2, s = 1.64; z = -1.34, -0.73, 0.49, 0.49, 1.10
4. True or false:
a. All normal distributions are symmetrical
b. All normal distributions have a mean of 1.0
c. All normal distributions have a standard deviation of 1.0
d. The total area under the curve of all normal distributions is equal to 1
5. Interpret the location, direction, and distance (near or far) of the following z -scores:
a. -2.00
b. 1.25
c. 3.50
d. -0.34
Answer:
a. 2 standard deviations below the mean, far
b. 1.25 standard deviations above the mean, near
c. 3.5 standard deviations above the mean, far
d. 0.34 standard deviations below the mean, near
6. Transform the following z -scores into a distribution with a mean of 10 and standard deviation of 2: -1.75, 2.20, 1.65, -0.95
7. Calculate z -scores for the following raw scores taken from a population with a mean of 100 and standard deviation of 16: 112,
109, 56, 88, 135, 99
Answer:
z = 0.75, 0.56, -2.75, -0.75, 2.19, -0.06
8. What does a z -score of 0.00 represent?

9. For a distribution with a standard deviation of 20, find z -scores that correspond to:
a. One-half of a standard deviation below the mean
b. 5 points above the mean
c. Three standard deviations above the mean
d. 22 points below the mean
Answer:
a. -0.50
b. 0.25
c. 3.00
d. 1.10
10. Calculate the raw score for the following z -scores from a distribution with a mean of 15 and standard deviation of 3:
a. 4.0

b. 2.2
c. -1.3
d. 0.46

Campus)

CHAPTER OVERVIEW
5: PROBABILITY
Probability can seem like a daunting topic for many students. In a mathematical statistics course this might be true, as the meaning and
purpose of probability gets obscured and overwhelmed by equations and theory. In this chapter we will focus only on the principles and ideas
necessary to lay the groundwork for future inferential statistics. We accomplish this by quickly tying the concepts of probability to what we
already know about normal distributions and z-scores.
5.1: WHAT IS PROBABILITY

5.2: PROBABILITY IN GRAPHS AND DISTRIBUTIONS
We will see shortly that the normal distribution is the key to how probability works for our purposes. To understand exactly how, let’s first
look at a simple, intuitive example using pie charts.
5.3: THE BIGGER PICTURE

The concepts and ideas presented in this chapter are likely not intuitive at first. Probability is a tough topic for everyone, but the tools it
gives us are incredibly powerful and enable us to do amazing things with data analysis. They are the heart of how inferential statistics
work.
5.E: PROBABILITY (EXERCISES)
1 2/18/2022
5.1: What is Probability
When we speak of the probability of something happening, we are talking how likely it is that “thing” will happen based
on the conditions present. For instance, what is the probability that it will rain? That is, how likely do we think it is that it
will rain today under the circumstances or conditions today? To define or understand the conditions that might affect how
likely it is to rain, we might look out the window and say, “it’s sunny outside, so it’s not very likely that it will rain today.”
Stated using probability language: given that it is sunny outside, the probability of rain is low. “Given” is the word we use
to state what the conditions are. As the conditions change, so does the probability. Thus, if it were cloudy and windy
outside, we might say, “given the current weather conditions, there is a high probability that it is going to rain.”
In these examples, we spoke about whether or not it is going to rain. Raining is an example of an event, which is the catch-
all term we use to talk about any specific thing happening; it is a generic term that we specified to mean “rain” in exactly
the same way that “conditions” is a generic term that we specified to mean “sunny” or “cloudy and windy.”
It should also be noted that the terms “low” and “high” are relative and vague, and they will likely be interpreted different
by different people (in other words: given how vague the terminology was, the probability of different interpretations is
high). Most of the time we try to use more precise language or, even better, numbers to represent the probability of our
event. Regardless, the basic structure and logic of our statements are consistent with how we speak about probability using
numbers and formulas.
Let’s look at a slightly deeper example. Say we have a regular, six-sided die (note that “die” is singular and “dice” is
plural, a distinction that Dr. Foster has yet to get correct on his first try) and want to know how likely it is that we will roll
a 1. That is, what is the probability of rolling a 1, given that the die is not weighted (which would introduce what we call a
bias, though that is beyond the scope of this chapter). We could roll the die and see if it is a 1 or not, but that won’t tell us
about the probability, it will only tell us a single result. We could also roll the die hundreds or thousands of times,
recording each outcome and seeing what the final list looks like, but this is time consuming, and rolling a die that many
times may lead down a dark path to gambling or, worse, playing Dungeons & Dragons. What we need is a simple equation
that represents what we are looking for and what is possible.
To calculate the probability of an event, which here is defined as rolling a 1 on an unbiased die, we need to know two
things: how many outcomes satisfy the criteria of our event (stated different, how many outcomes would count as what we
are looking for) and the total number of outcomes possible. In our example, only a single outcome, rolling a 1, will satisfy
our criteria, and there are a total of six possible outcomes (rolling a 1, rolling a 2, rolling a 3, rolling a 4, rolling a 5, and
rolling a 6). Thus, the probability of rolling a 1 on an unbiased die is 1 in 6 or 1/6. Put into an equation using generic
terms, we get:
number of outcomes that satisfy our criteria
Probability of an event = (5.1.1)
total number of possible outcomes
We can also using P() as shorthand for probability and A as shorthand for an event:
number of outcomes that count a A
P (A) = (5.1.2)
total number of possible outcomes
Using this equation, let’s now calculate the probability of rolling an even number on this die:
2, 4, or 6 3 1
P (Even Number) = = =
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 6 2
So we have a 50% chance of rolling an even number of this die. The principles laid out here operate under a certain set of
conditions and can be elaborated into ideas that are complex yet powerful and elegant. However, such extensions are not
necessary for a basic understanding of statistics, so we will end our discussion on the math of probability here. Now, let’s
turn back to more familiar topics.

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5.2: Probability in Graphs and Distributions
We will see shortly that the normal distribution is the key to how probability works for our purposes. To understand exactly how,
let’s first look at a simple, intuitive example using pie charts.
Probability in Pie
Charts Recall that a pie chart represents how frequently a category was observed and that all slices of the pie chart add up to 100%,
or 1. This means that if we randomly select an observation from the data used to create the pie chart, the probability of it taking on
a specific value is exactly equal to the size of that category’s slice in the pie chart.
Figure 5.2.1 : Favorite sports

Take, for example, the pie chart in Figure 5.2.1 representing the favorite sports of 100 people. If you put this pie chart on a dart
board and aimed blindly (assuming you are guaranteed to hit the board), the likelihood of hitting the slice for any given sport would
be equal to the size of that slice. So, the probability of hitting the baseball slice is the highest at 36%. The probability is equal to the
proportion of the chart taken up by that section.
We can also add slices together. For instance, maybe we want to know the probability to finding someone whose favorite sport is
usually played on grass. The outcomes that satisfy this criteria are baseball, football, and soccer. To get the probability, we simply
add their slices together to see what proportion of the area of the pie chart is in that region: 36% + 25% + 20% = 81%. We can also
add sections together even if they do not touch. If we want to know the likelihood that someone’s favorite sport is not called
football somewhere in the world (i.e. baseball and hockey), we can add those slices even though they aren’t adjacent or continuous
in the chart itself: 36% + 20% = 56%. We are able to do all of this because 1) the size of the slice corresponds to the area of the
chart taken up by that slice, 2) the percentage for a specific category can be represented as a decimal (this step was skipped for ease
of explanation above), and 3) the total area of the chart is equal to 100% or 1.0, which makes the size of the slices interpretable.
Probability in Normal Distributions

If the language at the end of the last section sounded familiar, that’s because its exactly the language used in the last chapter to
describe the normal distribution. Recall that the normal distribution has an area under its curve that is equal to 1 and that it can be
split into sections by drawing a line through it that corresponds to a given z -score. Because of this, we can interpret areas under the
normal curve as probabilities that correspond to z -scores.
First, let’s look back at the area between z = -1.00 and z = 1.00 presented in Figure 5.2.2. We were told earlier that this region
contains 68% of the area under the curve. Thus, if we randomly chose a z -score from all possible z-scores, there is a 68% chance
that it will be between z = -1.00 and z = 1.00 because those are the z -scores that satisfy our criteria.

Figure 5.2.2 : There is a 68% chance of selection a z -score from the blue-shaded region
Just like a pie chart is broken up into slices by drawing lines through it, we can also draw a line through the normal distribution to
split it into sections. Take a look at the normal distribution in Figure 5.2.3 which has a line drawn through it as z = 1.25. This line
creates two sections of the distribution: the smaller section called the tail and the larger section called the body. Differentiating
between the body and the tail does not depend on which side of the distribution the line is drawn. All that matters is the relative size
of the pieces: bigger is always body.
Figure 5.2.3 : Body and tail of the normal distribution

As you can see, we can break up the normal distribution into 3 pieces (lower tail, body, and upper tail) as in Figure 5.2.2 or into 2
pieces (body and tail) as in Figure 5.2.3. We can then find the proportion of the area in the body and tail based on where the line
was drawn (i.e. at what z -score). Mathematically this is done using calculus. Fortunately, the exact values are given you to you in
the Standard Normal Distribution Table, also known at the z -table. Using the values in this table, we can find the area under the
normal curve in any body, tail, or combination of tails no matter which z -scores are used to define them.
The z -table presents the values for the area under the curve to the left of the positive z -scores from 0.00-3.00 (technically 3.09), as
indicated by the shaded region of the distribution at the top of the table. To find the appropriate value, we first find the row
corresponding to our z -score then follow it over until we get to the column that corresponds to the number in the hundredths place
of our z -score. For example, suppose we want to find the area in the body for a z -score of 1.62. We would first find the row for
1.60 then follow it across to the column labeled 0.02 (1.60 + 0.02 = 1.62) and find 0.9474 (see Figure 5.2.4). Thus, the odds of
randomly selecting someone with a z -score less than (to the left of) z = 1.62 is 94.74% because that is the proportion of the area
taken up by values that satisfy our criteria.

Figure 5.2.4 : Using the z -table to find the area in the body to the left of z = 1.62
The z -table only presents the area in the body for positive z -scores because the normal distribution is symmetrical. Thus, the area
in the body of z = 1.62 is equal to the area in the body for z = -1.62, though now the body will be the shaded area to the right of z
(because the body is always larger). When in doubt, drawing out your distribution and shading the area you need to find will
always help. The table also only presents the area in the body because the total area under the normal curve is always equal to 1.00,
so if we need to find the area in the tail for z = 1.62, we simply find the area in the body and subtract it from 1.00 (1.00 – 0.9474 =
0.0526).
Let’s look at another example. This time, let’s find the area corresponding to z -scores more extreme than z = -1.96 and z = 1.96.
That is, let’s find the area in the tails of the distribution for values less than z = -1.96 (farther negative and therefore more extreme)
and greater than z = 1.96 (farther positive and therefore more extreme). This region is illustrated in Figure 5.2.5.
Figure 5.2.5 : Area in the tails beyond z = -1.96 and z = 1.96

Let’s start with the tail for z = 1.96. If we go to the z -table we will find that the body to the left of z = 1.96 is equal to 0.9750. To
find the area in the tail, we subtract that from 1.00 to get 0.0250. Because the normal distribution is symmetrical, the area in the tail
for z = -1.96 is the exact same value, 0.0250. Finally, to get the total area in the shaded region, we simply add the areas together to
get 0.0500. Thus, there is a 5% chance of randomly getting a value more extreme than z = -1.96 or z = 1.96 (this particular value
and region will become incredibly important in Unit 2).
Finally, we can find the area between two z -scores by shading and subtracting. Figure 5.2.6 shows the area between z = 0.50 and z
= 1.50. Because this is a subsection of a body (rather than just a body or a tail), we must first find the larger of the two bodies, in
this case the body for z = 1.50, and subtract the smaller of the two bodies, or the body for z = 0.50. Aligning the distributions
vertically, as in Figure 6, makes this clearer. From the z-table, the area in the body for z = 1.50 is 0.9332 and the area in the body
for z = 0.50 is 0.6915. Subtracting these gives us 0.9332 – 0.6915 = 0.2417.

Figure 5.2.6 : Area between z = 0.50 and 1.50, along with the corresponding areas in the body
Contributors
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5.3: The Bigger Picture
The concepts and ideas presented in this chapter are likely not intuitive at first. Probability is a tough topic for everyone,
but the tools it gives us are incredibly powerful and enable us to do amazing things with data analysis. They are the heart
of how inferential statistics work.
To summarize, the probability that an event happens is the number of outcomes that qualify as that event (i.e. the number
of ways the event could happen) compared to the total number of outcomes (i.e. how many things are possible). This
extends to graphs like a pie chart, where the biggest slices take up more of the area and are therefore more likely to be
chosen at random. This idea then brings us back around to our normal distribution, which can also be broken up into
regions or areas, each of which are bounded by one or two z -scores and correspond to all z -scores in that region. The
probability of randomly getting one of those z -scores in the specified region can then be found on the Standard Normal
Distribution Table. Thus, the larger the region, the more likely an event is, and vice versa. Because the tails of the
distribution are, by definition, smaller and we go farther out into the tail, the likelihood or probability of finding a result
out in the extremes becomes small.

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5.E: Probability (Exercises)
1. In your own words, what is probability?
Answer:
Your answer should include information about an event happening under certain conditions given certain criteria. You could
also discuss the relation between probability and the area under the curve or the proportion of the area in a chart.
2. There is a bag with 5 red blocks, 2 yellow blocks, and 4 blue blocks. If you reach in and grab one block without looking, what
is the probability it is red?
3. Under a normal distribution, which of the following is more likely? (Note: this question can be answered without any
calculations if you draw out the distributions and shade properly)
Getting a z -score greater than z = 2.75
Getting a z -score less than z = -1.50
Answer:
Getting a z -score less than z = -1.50 is more likely. z = 2.75 is farther out into the right tail than z = -1.50 is into the left tail,
therefore there are fewer more extreme scores beyond 2.75 than -1.50, regardless of the direction
4. The heights of women in the United States are normally distributed with a mean of 63.7 inches and a standard deviation of 2.7
inches. If you randomly select a woman in the United States, what is the probability that she will be between 65 and 67 inches
tall?
5. The heights of men in the United States are normally distributed with a mean of 69.1 inches and a standard deviation of 2.9
inches. What proportion of men are taller than 6 feet (72 inches)?
Answer:
15.87% or 0.1587
6. You know you need to score at least 82 points on the final exam to pass your class. After the final, you find out that the average
score on the exam was 78 with a standard deviation of 7. How likely is it that you pass the class?
7. What proportion of the area under the normal curve is greater than z = 1.65?
Answer:
4.95% or 0.0495
8. Find the z -score that bounds 25% of the lower tail of the distribution.
9. Find the z -score that bounds the top 9% of the distribution.
Answer:
z = 1.34 (the top 9% means 9% of the area is in the upper tail and 91% is in the body to the left; finding the value in the normal
table closest to .9100 is .9099, which corresponds to z = 1.34)
10. In a distribution with a mean of 70 and standard deviation of 12, what proportion of scores are lower than 55?

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CHAPTER OVERVIEW
6: SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS
We have come to the final chapter in this unit. We will now take the logic, ideas, and techniques we have developed and put them together to
see how we can take a sample of data and use it to make inferences about what's truly happening in the broader population. This is the final
piece of the puzzle that we need to understand in order to have the groundwork necessary for formal hypothesis testing. Though some of the
concepts in this chapter seem strange, they are all simple extensions of what w
6.1: PEOPLE, SAMPLES, AND POPULATIONS

6.2: THE SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF SAMPLE MEANS
6.3: USING STANDARD ERROR FOR PROBABILITY
6.4: SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION, PROBABILITY AND INFERENCE
6.E: SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS (EXERCISES)
1 2/18/2022
6.1: People, Samples, and Populations
Most of what we have dealt with so far has concerned individual scores grouped into samples, with those samples being
drawn from and, hopefully, representative of a population. We saw how we can understand the location of individual
scores within a sample’s distribution via z -scores, and how we can extend that to understand how likely it is to observe
scores higher or lower than an individual score via probability.
Inherent in this work is the notion that an individual score will differ from the mean, which we quantify as a z -score. All of
the individual scores will differ from the mean in different amounts and different directions, which is natural and expected.
We quantify these differences as variance and standard deviation. Measures of spread and the idea of variability in
observations is a key principle in inferential statistics. We know that any observation, whether it is a single score, a set of
scores, or a particular descriptive statistic will differ from the center of whatever distribution it belongs in.
This is equally true of things outside of statistics and format data collection and analysis. Some days you hear your alarm
and wake up easily, other days you need to hit snooze a few [dozen] times. Some days traffic is light, other days it is very
heavy. Some classes you are able to focus, pay attention, and take good notes, but other days you find yourself zoning out
the entire time. Each individual observation is an insight but is not, by itself, the entire story, and it takes an extreme
deviation from what we expect for us to think that something strange is going on. Being a little sleepy is normal, but being
completely unable to get out of bed might indicate that we are sick. Light traffic is a good thing, but almost no cars on the
road might make us think we forgot it is Saturday. Zoning out occasionally is fine, but if we cannot focus at all, we might
be in a stats class rather than a fun one.
All of these principles carry forward from scores within samples to samples within populations. Just like an individual
score will differ from its mean, an individual sample mean will differ from the true population mean. We encountered this
principle in earlier chapters: sampling error. As mentioned way back in chapter 1, sampling error is an incredibly important
principle. We know ahead of time that if we collect data and compute a sample, the observed value of that sample will be
at least slightly off from what we expect it to be based on our supposed population mean; this is natural and expected.
However, if our sample mean is extremely different from what we expect based on the population mean, there may be
something going on.

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6.2: The Sampling Distribution of Sample Means
To see how we use sampling error, we will learn about a new, theoretical distribution known as the sampling distribution.
In the same way that we can gather a lot of individual scores and put them together to form a distribution with a center and
spread, if we were to take many samples, all of the same size, and calculate the mean of each of those, we could put those
means together to form a distribution. This new distribution is, intuitively, known as the distribution of sample means. It is
one example of what we call a sampling distribution, we can be formed from a set of any statistic, such as a mean, a test
statistic, or a correlation coefficient (more on the latter two in Units 2 and 3). For our purposes, understanding the
distribution of sample means will be enough to see how all other sampling distributions work to enable and inform our
inferential analyses, so these two terms will be used interchangeably from here on out. Let’s take a deeper look at some of
its characteristics.
The sampling distribution of sample means can be described by its shape, center, and spread, just like any of the other
distributions we have worked with. The shape of our sampling distribution is normal: a bell-shaped curve with a single
peak and two tails extending symmetrically in either direction, just like what we saw in previous chapters. The center of
the sampling distribution of sample means – which is, itself, the mean or average of the means – is the true population
mean, μ . This will sometimes be written as μ to denote it as the mean of the sample means. The spread of the sampling
¯
¯
X
¯¯
¯
distribution is called the standard error, the quantification of sampling error, denoted μ . The formula for standard error is:
¯
¯
X
¯¯
¯
σ
σ¯¯¯¯¯ = − (6.2.1)
X
√n
Notice that the sample size is in this equation. As stated above, the sampling distribution refers to samples of a specific
size. That is, all sample means must be calculated from samples of the same size n , such n = 10, n = 30, or n = 100. This
sample size refers to how many people or observations are in each individual sample, not how many samples are used to
form the sampling distribution. This is because the sampling distribution is a theoretical distribution, not one we will ever
actually calculate or observe. Figure 6.2.1 displays the principles stated here in graphical form.
Figure 6.2.1 : The sampling distribution of sample means
Two Important Axioms

We just learned that the sampling distribution is theoretical: we never actually see it. If that is true, then how can we know
it works? How can we use something that we don’t see? The answer lies in two very important mathematical facts: the
central limit theorem and the law of large numbers. We will not go into the math behind how these statements were
derived, but knowing what they are and what they mean is important to understanding why inferential statistics work and
how we can draw conclusions about a population based on information gained from a single sample.
Central Limit Theorem

The central limit theorem states:

Theorem 6.2.1
For samples of a single size n , drawn from a population with a given mean μ and variance σ
2
, the sampling
2
σ
distribution of sample means will have a mean μ¯¯¯¯¯ = μ
X
and variance σ
X
2
= . This distribution will approach
n
normality as n increases.
From this, we are able to find the standard deviation of our sampling distribution, the standard error. As you can see, just
like any other standard deviation, the standard error is simply the square root of the variance of the distribution.
The last sentence of the central limit theorem states that the sampling distribution will be normal as the sample size of the
samples used to create it increases. What this means is that bigger samples will create a more normal distribution, so we
are better able to use the techniques we developed for normal distributions and probabilities. So how large is large enough?
In general, a sampling distribution will be normal if either of two characteristics is true:
1. the population from which the samples are drawn is normally distributed or
2. the sample size is equal to or greater than 30.
This second criteria is very important because it enables us to use methods developed for normal distributions even if the
true population distribution is skewed.
Law of Large Numbers

The law of large numbers simply states that as our sample size increases, the probability that our sample mean is an
accurate representation of the true population mean also increases. It is the formal mathematical way to state that larger
samples are more accurate.
The law of large numbers is related to the central limit theorem, specifically the formulas for variance and standard error.
Notice that the sample size appears in the denominators of those formulas. A larger denominator in any fraction means that
the overall value of the fraction gets smaller (i.e 1/2 = 0.50, 1/3 – 0.33, 1/4 = 0.25, and so on). Thus, larger sample sizes
will create smaller standard errors. We already know that standard error is the spread of the sampling distribution and that
a smaller spread creates a narrower distribution. Therefore, larger sample sizes create narrower sampling distributions,
which increases the probability that a sample mean will be close to the center and decreases the probability that it will be
in the tails. This is illustrated in Figures 6.2.2 and 6.2.3.
Figure 6.2.2 : Sampling distributions from the same population with μ = 50 and σ = 10 but different sample sizes (N = 10,
N = 30, N = 50, N = 100)

Figure 6.2.3 : Relation between sample size and standard error for a constant σ = 10

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6.3: Using Standard Error for Probability
We saw in chapter 6 that we can use z -scores to split up a normal distribution and calculate the proportion of the area
under the curve in one of the new regions, giving us the probability of randomly selecting a z -score in that range. We can
follow the exact sample process for sample means, converting them into z -scores and calculating probabilities. The only
difference is that instead of dividing a raw score by the standard deviation, we divide the sample mean by the standard
error.
¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯
¯
X −μ X −μ
z = = (6.3.1)
¯
¯
σ¯¯¯¯¯ σ̄
X
√n
Let’s say we are drawing samples from a population with a mean of 50 and standard deviation of 10 (the same values used
in Figure 2). What is the probability that we get a random sample of size 10 with a mean greater than or equal to 55? That
¯¯¯
¯
is, for n = 10, what is the probability that X ≥ 55? First, we need to convert this sample mean score into a z -score:
55 − 50 5
z = = = 1.58
10
3.16
√10
Now we need to shade the area under the normal curve corresponding to scores greater than z = 1.58 as in Figure 6.3.1:
Figure 6.3.1 : Area under the curve greater than z = 1.58

Now we go to our z -table and find that the area to the left of z = 1.58 is 0.9429. Finally, because we need the area to the
right (per our shaded diagram), we simply subtract this from 1 to get 1.00 – 0.9429 = 0.0571. So, the probability of
randomly drawing a sample of 10 people from a population with a mean of 50 and standard deviation of 10 whose sample
mean is 55 or more is p = .0571, or 5.71%. Notice that we are talking about means that are 55 or more. That is because,
strictly speaking, it’s impossible to calculate the probability of a score taking on exactly 1 value since the “shaded region”
would just be a line with no area to calculate.
Now let’s do the same thing, but assume that instead of only having a sample of 10 people we took a sample of 50 people.
First, we find z :
55 − 50 5
z = = = 3.55 (6.3.2)
10
1.41
√50
Then we shade the appropriate region of the normal distribution:

Figure 6.3.2 : Area under the curve greater than z = 3.55
Notice that no region of Figure 6.3.2 appears to be shaded. That is because the area under the curve that far out into the tail
is so small that it can’t even be seen (the red line has been added to show exactly where the region starts). Thus, we already
know that the probability must be smaller for N = 50 than N = 10 because the size of the area (the proportion) is much
smaller.
We run into a similar issue when we try to find z = 3.55 on our Standard Normal Distribution Table. The table only goes
up to 3.09 because everything beyond that is almost 0 and changes so little that it’s not worth printing values. The closest
we can get is subtracting the largest value, 0.9990, from 1 to get 0.001. We know that, technically, the actual probability is
smaller than this (since 3.55 is farther into the tail than 3.09), so we say that the probability is p < 0.001, or less than 0.1%.
This example shows what an impact sample size can have. From the same population, looking for exactly the same thing,
changing only the sample size took us from roughly a 5% chance (or about 1/20 odds) to a less than 0.1% chance (or less
than 1 in 1000). As the sample size n increased, the standard error decreased, which in turn caused the value of z to
increase, which finally caused the p-value (a term for probability we will use a lot in Unit 2) to decrease. You can think of
this relation like gears: turning the first gear (sample size) clockwise causes the next gear (standard error) to turn
counterclockwise, which causes the third gear (z) to turn clockwise, which finally causes the last gear (probability) to turn
counterclockwise. All of these pieces fit together, and the relations will always be the same:
n ↑ σ¯¯¯¯¯ ↓ z ↑ p ↓ (6.3.3)
X
Let’s look at this one more way. For the same population of sample size 50 and standard deviation 10, what proportion of
sample means fall between 47 and 53 if they are of sample size 10 and sample size 50?
We’ll start again with n = 10. Converting 47 and 53 into z -scores, we get z = -0.95 and z = 0.95, respectively. From our z -
table, we find that the proportion between these two scores is 0.6578 (the process here is left off for the student to practice
¯¯¯
¯
converting X to z and z to proportions). So, 65.78% of sample means of sample size 10 will fall between 47 and 53. For n
= 50, our z -scores for 47 and 53 are ±2.13, which gives us a proportion of the area as 0.9668, almost 97%! Shaded regions
for each of these sampling distributions is displayed in Figure 6.3.3. The sampling distributions are shown on the original
scale, rather than as z-scores, so you can see the effect of the shading and how much of the body falls into the range, which
is marked off with dotted line.
Figure 6.3.3 : Areas between 47 and 53 for sampling distributions of n = 10 and n = 50

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6.4: Sampling Distribution, Probability and Inference
We’ve seen how we can use the standard error to determine probability based on our normal curve. We can think of the
standard error as how much we would naturally expect our statistic – be it a mean or some other statistic) – to vary. In our
¯¯¯
¯
formula for z based on a sample mean, the numerator (X − μ ) is what we call an observed effect. That is, it is what we
observe in our sample mean versus what we expected based on the population from which that sample mean was
calculated. Because the sample mean will naturally move around due to sampling error, our observed effect will also
change naturally. In the context of our formula for z , then, our standard error is how much we would naturally expect the
observed effect to change. Changing by a little is completely normal, but changing by a lot might indicate something is
going on. This is the basis of inferential statistics and the logic behind hypothesis testing, the subject of Unit 2.

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6.E: Sampling Distributions (Exercises)
1. What is a sampling distribution?
Answer:
The sampling distribution (or sampling distribution of the sample means) is the distribution formed by combining many
sample means taken from the same population and of a single, consistent sample size.
2. What are the two mathematical facts that describe how sampling distributions work?
3. What is the difference between a sampling distribution and a regular distribution?
Answer:
A sampling distribution is made of statistics (e.g. the mean) whereas a regular distribution is made of individual scores.
4. What effect does sample size have on the shape of a sampling distribution?
5. What is standard error?
Answer:
Standard error is the spread of the sampling distribution and is the quantification of sampling error. It is how much we
expect the sample mean to naturally change based on random chance.
6. For a population with a mean of 75 and a standard deviation of 12, what proportion of sample means of size n = 16 fall
above 82?
7. For a population with a mean of 100 and standard deviation of 16, what is the probability that a random sample of size
4 will have a mean between 110 and 130?
Answer:
10.46% or 0.1046
8. Find the z -score for the following means taken from a population with mean 10 and standard deviation 2:
¯¯¯
¯
a. X = 8, n = 12
b. X = 8, n = 30
¯¯¯
¯
c. X = 20, n = 4
¯¯¯
¯
¯¯¯
¯
d. X = 20, n = 16
9. As the sample size increases, what happens to the p-value associated with a given sample mean?
Answer:
As sample size increases, the p -value will decrease
10. For a population with a mean of 35 and standard deviation of 7, find the sample mean of size n = 20 that cuts off the
top 5% of the sampling distribution.

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CHAPTER OVERVIEW
7: INTRODUCTION TO HYPOTHESIS TESTING
This chapter lays out the basic logic and process of hypothesis testing. We will perform z-tests, which use the z-score formula from chapter 6
and data from a sample mean to make an inference about a population.
7.1: LOGIC AND PURPOSE OF HYPOTHESIS TESTING

7.2: THE PROBABILITY VALUE
7.3: THE NULL HYPOTHESIS
7.4: THE ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS
7.5: CRITICAL VALUES, P-VALUES, AND SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL
7.6: STEPS OF THE HYPOTHESIS TESTING PROCESS
7.7: MOVIE POPCORN
7.8: EFFECT SIZE
7.9: OFFICE TEMPERATURE
7.10: DIFFERENT SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL
7.11: OTHER CONSIDERATIONS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING
7.E: INTRODUCTION TO HYPOTHESIS TESTING (EXERCISES)
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7.1: Logic and Purpose of Hypothesis Testing
The statistician R. Fisher explained the concept of hypothesis testing with a story of a lady tasting tea. Here we will present
an example based on James Bond who insisted that martinis should be shaken rather than stirred. Let's consider a
hypothetical experiment to determine whether Mr. Bond can tell the difference between a shaken and a stirred martini.
Suppose we gave Mr. Bond a series of 16 taste tests. In each test, we flipped a fair coin to determine whether to stir or
shake the martini. Then we presented the martini to Mr. Bond and asked him to decide whether it was shaken or stirred.
Let's say Mr. Bond was correct on 13 of the 16 taste tests. Does this prove that Mr. Bond has at least some ability to tell
whether the martini was shaken or stirred?
This result does not prove that he does; it could be he was just lucky and guessed right 13 out of 16 times. But how
plausible is the explanation that he was just lucky? To assess its plausibility, we determine the probability that someone
who was just guessing would be correct 13/16 times or more. This probability can be computed to be 0.0106. This is a
pretty low probability, and therefore someone would have to be very lucky to be correct 13 or more times out of 16 if they
were just guessing. So either Mr. Bond was very lucky, or he can tell whether the drink was shaken or stirred. The
hypothesis that he was guessing is not proven false, but considerable doubt is cast on it. Therefore, there is strong evidence
that Mr. Bond can tell whether a drink was shaken or stirred.
Let's consider another example. The case study Physicians' Reactions sought to determine whether physicians spend less
time with obese patients. Physicians were sampled randomly and each was shown a chart of a patient complaining of a
migraine headache. They were then asked to estimate how long they would spend with the patient. The charts were
identical except that for half the charts, the patient was obese and for the other half, the patient was of average weight. The
chart a particular physician viewed was determined randomly. Thirty-three physicians viewed charts of average-weight
patients and 38 physicians viewed charts of obese patients.
The mean time physicians reported that they would spend with obese patients was 24.7 minutes as compared to a mean of
31.4 minutes for normal-weight patients. How might this difference between means have occurred? One possibility is that
physicians were influenced by the weight of the patients. On the other hand, perhaps by chance, the physicians who
viewed charts of the obese patients tend to see patients for less time than the other physicians. Random assignment of
charts does not ensure that the groups will be equal in all respects other than the chart they viewed. In fact, it is certain the
groups differed in many ways by chance. The two groups could not have exactly the same mean age (if measured precisely
enough such as in days). Perhaps a physician's age affects how long physicians see patients. There are innumerable
differences between the groups that could affect how long they view patients. With this in mind, is it plausible that these
chance differences are responsible for the difference in times?
To assess the plausibility of the hypothesis that the difference in mean times is due to chance, we compute the probability
of getting a difference as large or larger than the observed difference (31.4 - 24.7 = 6.7 minutes) if the difference were, in
fact, due solely to chance. Using methods presented in later chapters, this probability can be computed to be 0.0057. Since
this is such a low probability, we have confidence that the difference in times is due to the patient's weight and is not due to
chance.

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7.2: The Probability Value
It is very important to understand precisely what the probability values mean. In the James Bond example, the computed
probability of 0.0106 is the probability he would be correct on 13 or more taste tests (out of 16) if he were just guessing.
It is easy to mistake this probability of 0.0106 as the probability he cannot tell the difference. This is not at all what it means.
The probability of 0.0106 is the probability of a certain outcome (13 or more out of 16) assuming a certain state of the world
(James Bond was only guessing). It is not the probability that a state of the world is true. Although this might seem like a
distinction without a difference, consider the following example. An animal trainer claims that a trained bird can determine whether
or not numbers are evenly divisible by 7. In an experiment assessing this claim, the bird is given a series of 16 test trials. On each
trial, a number is displayed on a screen and the bird pecks at one of two keys to indicate its choice. The numbers are chosen in such
a way that the probability of any number being evenly divisible by 7 is 0.50. The bird is correct on 9/16 choices. We can compute
that the probability of being correct nine or more times out of 16 if one is only guessing is 0.40. Since a bird who is only guessing
would do this well 40% of the time, these data do not provide convincing evidence that the bird can tell the difference between the
two types of numbers. As a scientist, you would be very skeptical that the bird had this ability. Would you conclude that there is a
0.40 probability that the bird can tell the difference? Certainly not! You would think the probability is much lower than 0.0001.
To reiterate, the probability value is the probability of an outcome (9/16 or better) and not the probability of a particular state of the
world (the bird was only guessing). In statistics, it is conventional to refer to possible states of the world as hypotheses since they
are hypothesized states of the world. Using this terminology, the probability value is the probability of an outcome given the
hypothesis. It is not the probability of the hypothesis given the outcome.
This is not to say that we ignore the probability of the hypothesis. If the probability of the outcome given the hypothesis is
sufficiently low, we have evidence that the hypothesis is false. However, we do not compute the probability that the hypothesis is
false. In the James Bond example, the hypothesis is that he cannot tell the difference between shaken and stirred martinis. The
probability value is low (0.0106), thus providing evidence that he can tell the difference. However, we have not computed the
probability that he can tell the difference.

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7.3: The Null Hypothesis
The hypothesis that an apparent effect is due to chance is called the null hypothesis, written H (“H-naught”). In the Physicians'
0
Reactions example, the null hypothesis is that in the population of physicians, the mean time expected to be spent with obese
patients is equal to the mean time expected to be spent with average-weight patients. This null hypothesis can be written as:
H0 : μobese − μaverage = 0 (7.3.1)
The null hypothesis in a correlational study of the relationship between high school grades and college grades would typically be
that the population correlation is 0. This can be written as
H0 : ρ = 0 (7.3.2)
where ρ is the population correlation, which we will cover in chapter 12.

Although the null hypothesis is usually that the value of a parameter is 0, there are occasions in which the null hypothesis is a value
other than 0. For example, if we are working with mothers in the U.S. whose children are at risk of low birth weight, we can use
7.47 pounds, the average birthweight in the US, as our null value and test for differences against that.
For now, we will focus on testing a value of a single mean against what we expect from the population. Using birthweight as an
example, our null hypothesis takes the form:
H0 : μ = 7.47
The number on the right hand side is our null hypothesis value that is informed by our research question. Notice that we are testing
the value for μ , the population parameter, NOT the sample statistic X . This is for two reasons: 1) once we collect data, we know
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what the value of X is – it’s not a mystery or a question, it is observed and used for the second reason, which is 2) we are interested
in understanding the population, not just our sample.
Keep in mind that the null hypothesis is typically the opposite of the researcher's hypothesis. In the Physicians' Reactions study, the
researchers hypothesized that physicians would expect to spend less time with obese patients. The null hypothesis that the two
types of patients are treated identically is put forward with the hope that it can be discredited and therefore rejected. If the null
hypothesis were true, a difference as large or larger than the sample difference of 6.7 minutes would be very unlikely to occur.
Therefore, the researchers rejected the null hypothesis of no difference and concluded that in the population, physicians intend to
spend less time with obese patients.
In general, the null hypothesis is the idea that nothing is going on: there is no effect of our treatment, no relation between our
variables, and no difference in our sample mean from what we expected about the population mean. This is always our baseline
starting assumption, and it is what we seek to reject. If we are trying to treat depression, we want to find a difference in average
symptoms between our treatment and control groups. If we are trying to predict job performance, we want to find a relation
between conscientiousness and evaluation scores. However, until we have evidence against it, we must use the null hypothesis as
our starting point.

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7.4: The Alternative Hypothesis
If the null hypothesis is rejected, then we will need some other explanation, which we call the alternative hypothesis, H A
or H . The alternative hypothesis is simply the reverse of the null hypothesis, and there are three options, depending on
1
where we expect the difference to lie. Thus, our alternative hypothesis is the mathematical way of stating our research
question. If we expect our obtained sample mean to be above or below the null hypothesis value, which we call a
directional hypothesis, then our alternative hypothesis takes the form:
HA : μ > 7.47 or HA : μ < 7.47
based on the research question itself. We should only use a directional hypothesis if we have good reason, based on prior
observations or research, to suspect a particular direction. When we do not know the direction, such as when we are
entering a new area of research, we use a non-directional alternative:
HA : μ ≠ 7.47
We will set different criteria for rejecting the null hypothesis based on the directionality (greater than, less than, or not
equal to) of the alternative. To understand why, we need to see where our criteria come from and how they relate to z -
scores and distributions.

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7.5: Critical values, p-values, and significance level
A low probability value casts doubt on the null hypothesis. How low must the probability value be in order to conclude
that the null hypothesis is false? Although there is clearly no right or wrong answer to this question, it is conventional to
conclude the null hypothesis is false if the probability value is less than 0.05. More conservative researchers conclude the
null hypothesis is false only if the probability value is less than 0.01. When a researcher concludes that the null hypothesis
is false, the researcher is said to have rejected the null hypothesis. The probability value below which the null hypothesis is
rejected is called the α level or simply α (“alpha”). It is also called the significance level. If α is not explicitly specified,
assume that α = 0.05.
The significance level is a threshold we set before collecting data in order to determine whether or not we should reject the
null hypothesis. We set this value beforehand to avoid biasing ourselves by viewing our results and then determining what
criteria we should use. If our data produce values that meet or exceed this threshold, then we have sufficient evidence to
reject the null hypothesis; if not, we fail to reject the null (we never “accept” the null).
There are two criteria we use to assess whether our data meet the thresholds established by our chosen significance level,
and they both have to do with our discussions of probability and distributions. Recall that probability refers to the
likelihood of an event, given some situation or set of conditions. In hypothesis testing, that situation is the assumption that
the null hypothesis value is the correct value, or that there is no effect. The value laid out in H0 is our condition under
which we interpret our results. To reject this assumption, and thereby reject the null hypothesis, we need results that would
be very unlikely if the null was true. Now recall that values of z which fall in the tails of the standard normal distribution
represent unlikely values. That is, the proportion of the area under the curve as or more extreme than z is very small as we
get into the tails of the distribution. Our significance level corresponds to the area under the tail that is exactly equal to α: if
we use our normal criterion of α = .05, then 5% of the area under the curve becomes what we call the rejection region
(also called the critical region) of the distribution. This is illustrated in Figure 7.5.1.
Figure 7.5.1 : The rejection region for a one-tailed test.

The shaded rejection region takes us 5% of the area under the curve. Any result which falls in that region is sufficient
evidence to reject the null hypothesis.
The rejection region is bounded by a specific z -value, as is any area under the curve. In hypothesis testing, the value
corresponding to a specific rejection region is called the critical value, z (“z -crit”) or z∗ (hence the other name “critical
crit
region”). Finding the critical value works exactly the same as finding the z-score corresponding to any area under the
curve like we did in Unit 1. If we go to the normal table, we will find that the z-score corresponding to 5% of the area
under the curve is equal to 1.645 (z = 1.64 corresponds to 0.0405 and z = 1.65 corresponds to 0.0495, so .05 is exactly in
between them) if we go to the right and -1.645 if we go to the left. The direction must be determined by your alternative
hypothesis, and drawing then shading the distribution is helpful for keeping directionality straight.
Suppose, however, that we want to do a non-directional test. We need to put the critical region in both tails, but we don’t
want to increase the overall size of the rejection region (for reasons we will see later). To do this, we simply split it in half
so that an equal proportion of the area under the curve falls in each tail’s rejection region. For α = .05, this means 2.5% of
the area is in each tail, which, based on the z-table, corresponds to critical values of z∗ = ±1.96. This is shown in Figure
7.5.2.

Figure 7.5.2 : Two-tailed rejection region.
Thus, any z -score falling outside ±1.96 (greater than 1.96 in absolute value) falls in the rejection region. When we use z -
scores in this way, the obtained value of z (sometimes called z -obtained) is something known as a test statistic, which is
simply an inferential statistic used to test a null hypothesis. The formula for our z -statistic has not changed:
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X−μ
z = − (7.5.1)
σ̄/ √n
To formally test our hypothesis, we compare our obtained z -statistic to our critical z -value. If Z > Z , that means it
obt crit
falls in the rejection region (to see why, draw a line for z = 2.5 on Figure 7.5.1 or Figure 7.5.2) and so we reject H . If 0
Zobt <Z crit , we fail to reject. Remember that as z gets larger, the corresponding area under the curve beyond z gets
smaller. Thus, the proportion, or p-value, will be smaller than the area for α , and if the area is smaller, the probability gets
smaller. Specifically, the probability of obtaining that result, or a more extreme result, under the condition that the null
hypothesis is true gets smaller.
The z -statistic is very useful when we are doing our calculations by hand. However, when we use computer software, it
will report to us a p-value, which is simply the proportion of the area under the curve in the tails beyond our obtained z -
statistic. We can directly compare this p-value to α to test our null hypothesis: if p < α , we reject H , but if p > α , we
0
fail to reject. Note also that the reverse is always true: if we use critical values to test our hypothesis, we will always know
if p is greater than or less than α . If we reject, we know that p < α because the obtained z -statistic falls farther out into the
tail than the critical z -value that corresponds to α , so the proportion (p-value) for that z -statistic will be smaller.
Conversely, if we fail to reject, we know that the proportion will be larger than α because the z -statistic will not be as far
into the tail. This is illustrated for a one-tailed test in Figure 7.5.3.
Figure 7.5.3 : Relation between α , zobt , and p

When the null hypothesis is rejected, the effect is said to be statistically significant. For example, in the Physicians
Reactions case study, the probability value is 0.0057. Therefore, the effect of obesity is statistically significant and the null
hypothesis that obesity makes no difference is rejected. It is very important to keep in mind that statistical significance
means only that the null hypothesis of exactly no effect is rejected; it does not mean that the effect is important, which is
what “significant” usually means. When an effect is significant, you can have confidence the effect is not exactly zero.
Finding that an effect is significant does not tell you about how large or important the effect is. Do not confuse statistical
significance with practical significance. A small effect can be highly significant if the sample size is large enough. Why
does the word “significant” in the phrase “statistically significant” mean something so different from other uses of the
word? Interestingly, this is because the meaning of “significant” in everyday language has changed. It turns out that when
the procedures for hypothesis testing were developed, something was “significant” if it signified something. Thus, finding
that an effect is statistically significant signifies that the effect is real and not due to chance. Over the years, the meaning of
“significant” changed, leading to the potential misinterpretation.

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7.6: Steps of the Hypothesis Testing Process
The process of testing hypotheses follows a simple four-step procedure. This process will be what we use for the remained
of the textbook and course, and though the hypothesis and statistics we use will change, this process will not.
Step 1: State the Hypotheses Your hypotheses are the first thing you need to lay out. Otherwise, there is nothing to
test! You have to state the null hypothesis (which is what we test) and the alternative hypothesis (which is what we
expect). These should be stated mathematically as they were presented above AND in words, explaining in normal
English what each one means in terms of the research question.
Step 2: Find the Critical Values Next, we formally lay out the criteria we will use to test our hypotheses. There are
two pieces of information that inform our critical values: α , which determines how much of the area under the curve
composes our rejection region, and the directionality of the test, which determines where the region will be.
Step 3: Compute the Test Statistic Once we have our hypotheses and the standards we use to test them, we can
collect data and calculate our test statistic, in this case z . This step is where the vast majority of differences in future
chapters will arise: different tests used for different data are calculated in different ways, but the way we use and
interpret them remains the same.
Step 4: Make the Decision Finally, once we have our obtained test statistic, we can compare it to our critical value
and decide whether we should reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis. When we do this, we must interpret the
decision in relation to our research question, stating what we concluded, what we based our conclusion on, and the
specific statistics we obtained.

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7.7: Movie Popcorn
Let’s see how hypothesis testing works in action by working through an example. Say that a movie theater owner likes to
keep a very close eye on how much popcorn goes into each bag sold, so he knows that the average bag has 8 cups of
popcorn and that this varies a little bit, about half a cup. That is, the known population mean is μ = 8.00 and the known
population standard deviation is σ = 0.50. The owner wants to make sure that the newest employee is filling bags correctly,
so over the course of a week he randomly assesses 25 bags filled by the employee to test for a difference (N = 25). He
doesn’t want bags overfilled or under filled, so he looks for differences in both directions. This scenario has all of the
information we need to begin our hypothesis testing procedure.
Step 1: State the Hypotheses Our manager is looking for a difference in the mean weight of popcorn bags compared to the
population mean of 8. We will need both a null and an alternative hypothesis written both mathematically and in words.
We’ll always start with the null hypothesis:
H0 : There is no difference in the weight of popcorn bags from this employee
H0 : μ = 8.00
Notice that we phrase the hypothesis in terms of the population parameter μ , which in this case would be the true average
weight of bags filled by the new employee. Our assumption of no difference, the null hypothesis, is that this mean is
exactly the same as the known population mean value we want it to match, 8.00. Now let’s do the alternative:
HA : There is a difference in the weight of popcorn bags from this employee
HA : μ ≠ 8.00
In this case, we don’t know if the bags will be too full or not full enough, so we do a two-tailed alternative hypothesis that
there is a difference.
Step 2: Find the Critical Values Our critical values are based on two things: the directionality of the test and the level of
significance. We decided in step 1 that a two-tailed test is the appropriate directionality. We were given no information
about the level of significance, so we assume that α = 0.05 is what we will use. As stated earlier in the chapter, the critical
values for a two-tailed z -test at α = 0.05 are z∗ = ±1.96. This will be the criteria we use to test our hypothesis. We can
now draw out our distribution so we can visualize the rejection region and make sure it makes sense.
Figure 7.7.1 : Rejection region for z∗ = ±1.96

Step 3: Calculate the Test Statistic Now we come to our formal calculations. Let’s say that the manager collects data and
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finds that the average weight of this employee’s popcorn bags is X = 7.75 cups. We can now plug this value, along with the
values presented in the original problem, into our equation for z :
7.75 − 8.00 −0.25
z = = = −2.50
−−
0.50/ √25 0.10
So our test statistic is z = -2.50, which we can draw onto our rejection region distribution:

Figure 7.7.2 : Test statistic location
Step 4: Make the Decision Looking at Figure 7.7.2, we can see that our obtained z -statistic falls in the rejection region.
We can also directly compare it to our critical value: in terms of absolute value, -2.50 > -1.96, so we reject the null
hypothesis. We can now write our conclusion:
Reject H0 . Based on the sample of 25 bags, we can conclude that the average popcorn bag from this employee is
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smaller (X = 7.75 cups) than the average weight of popcorn bags at this movie theater, z = 2.50, p < 0.05.
When we write our conclusion, we write out the words to communicate what it actually means, but we also include the
average sample size we calculated (the exact location doesn’t matter, just somewhere that flows naturally and makes sense)
and the z -statistic and p-value. We don’t know the exact p-value, but we do know that because we rejected the null, it must
be less than α .

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7.8: Effect Size
When we reject the null hypothesis, we are stating that the difference we found was statistically significant, but we have
mentioned several times that this tells us nothing about practical significance. To get an idea of the actual size of what we
found, we can compute a new statistic called an effect size. Effect sizes give us an idea of how large, important, or
meaningful a statistically significant effect is. For mean differences like we calculated here, our effect size is Cohen’s d :
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X −μ
d = (7.8.1)
σ
This is very similar to our formula for z , but we no longer take into account the sample size (since overly large samples
can make it too easy to reject the null). Cohen’s d is interpreted in units of standard deviations, just like z . For our
example:
7.75 − 8.00 −0.25
d = = = 0.50
0.50 0.50
Cohen’s d is interpreted as small, moderate, or large. Specifically, d = 0.20 is small, d = 0.50 is moderate, and d = 0.80 is
large. Obviously values can fall in between these guidelines, so we should use our best judgment and the context of the
problem to make our final interpretation of size. Our effect size happened to be exactly equal to one of these, so we say
that there was a moderate effect.
Effect sizes are incredibly useful and provide important information and clarification that overcomes some of the weakness
of hypothesis testing. Whenever you find a significant result, you should always calculate an effect size.

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7.9: Office Temperature
Let’s do another example to solidify our understanding. Let’s say that the office building you work in is supposed to be
kept at 74 degree Fahrenheit but is allowed to vary by 1 degree in either direction. You suspect that, as a cost saving
measure, the temperature was secretly set higher. You set up a formal way to test your hypothesis.
Step 1: State the Hypotheses You start by laying out the null hypothesis:
H0 : There is no difference in the average building temperature
H0 : μ = 74
Next you state the alternative hypothesis. You have reason to suspect a specific direction of change, so you make a one-
tailed test:
HA : The average building temperature is higher than claimed
HA : μ > 74
Step 2: Find the Critical Values You know that the most common level of significance is α = 0.05, so you keep that the
same and know that the critical value for a one-tailed z -test is z∗ = 1.645. To keep track of the directionality of the test and
rejection region, you draw out your distribution:
Figure 7.9.1 : Rejection region

Step 3: Calculate the Test Statistic Now that you have everything set up, you spend one week collecting temperature data:
Table 7.9.1 : Temperature data for a week
Day Temperature
Monday 77
Tuesday 76
Wednesday 74
Thursday 78
Friday 78
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You calculate the average of these scores to be X = 76.6 degrees. You use this to calculate the test statistic, using μ = 74
(the supposed average temperature), σ = 1.00 (how much the temperature should vary), and n = 5 (how many data points
you collected):
76.60 − 74.00 2.60
z = – = = 5.78
1.00/ √5 0.45
This value falls so far into the tail that it cannot even be plotted on the distribution!

Figure 7.9.2 : Obtained z -statistic
Step 4: Make the Decision You compare your obtained z -statistic, z = 5.77, to the critical value, z∗ = 1.645, and find that
z > z∗ . Therefore you reject the null hypothesis, concluding:
Based on 5 observations, the average temperature (X = 76.6 degrees) is statistically significantly higher than it is supposed
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to be, z = 5.77, p < .05.

Because the result is significant, you also calculate an effect size:
76.60 − 74.00 2.60
d = = = 2.60
1.00 1.00
The effect size you calculate is definitely large, meaning someone has some explaining to do!

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7.10: Different Significance Level
Finally, let’s take a look at an example phrased in generic terms, rather than in the context of a specific research question,
to see the individual pieces one more time. This time, however, we will use a stricter significance level, α = 0.01, to test
the hypothesis.
Step 1: State the Hypotheses We will use 60 as an arbitrary null hypothesis value:
H0 : The average score does not differ from the population
H0 : μ = 50
We will assume a two-tailed test:

HA : The average score does differ
HA : μ ≠ 50
Step 2: Find the Critical Values We have seen the critical values for z -tests at α = 0.05 levels of significance several times.
To find the values for α = 0.01, we will go to the standard normal table and find the z -score cutting of 0.005 (0.01 divided
by 2 for a two-tailed test) of the area in the tail, which is z∗ = ±2.575. Notice that this cutoff is much higher than it was for
α = 0.05. This is because we need much less of the area in the tail, so we need to go very far out to find the cutoff. As a
result, this will require a much larger effect or much larger sample size in order to reject the null hypothesis.
Step 3: Calculate the Test Statistic We can now calculate our test statistic. We will use σ = 10 as our known population
standard deviation and the following data to calculate our sample mean:
61 62
65 61
58 59
54 61
60 63
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The average of these scores is X = 60.40. From this we calculate our z -statistic as:
60.40 − 60.00 0.40
z = −− = = 0.13
10.00/ √10 3.16
Step 4: Make the Decision Our obtained z -statistic, z = 0.13, is very small. It is much less than our critical value of 2.575.
Thus, this time, we fail to reject the null hypothesis. Our conclusion would look something like:
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Based on the sample of 10 scores, we cannot conclude that there is no effect causing the mean (X = 60.40) to be
statistically significantly different from 60.00, z = 0.13, p > 0.01.
Notice two things about the end of the conclusion. First, we wrote that p is greater than instead of p is less than, like we
did in the previous two examples. This is because we failed to reject the null hypothesis. We don’t know exactly what the
p -value is, but we know it must be larger than the α level we used to test our hypothesis. Second, we used 0.01 instead of
the usual 0.05, because this time we tested at a different level. The number you compare to the p-value should always be
the significance level you test at.
Finally, because we did not detect a statistically significant effect, we do not need to calculate an effect size.

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7.11: Other Considerations in Hypothesis Testing
There are several other considerations we need to keep in mind when performing hypothesis testing.
Errors in Hypothesis Testing

In the Physicians' Reactions case study, the probability value associated with the significance test is 0.0057. Therefore, the
null hypothesis was rejected, and it was concluded that physicians intend to spend less time with obese patients. Despite
the low probability value, it is possible that the null hypothesis of no true difference between obese and average-weight
patients is true and that the large difference between sample means occurred by chance. If this is the case, then the
conclusion that physicians intend to spend less time with obese patients is in error. This type of error is called a Type I
error. More generally, a Type I error occurs when a significance test results in the rejection of a true null hypothesis.
By one common convention, if the probability value is below 0.05 then the null hypothesis is rejected. Another
convention, although slightly less common, is to reject the null hypothesis if the probability value is below 0.01. The
threshold for rejecting the null hypothesis is called the α level or simply α . It is also called the significance level. As
discussed in the introduction to hypothesis testing, it is better to interpret the probability value as an indication of the
weight of evidence against the null hypothesis than as part of a decision rule for making a reject or do-not-reject decision.
Therefore, keep in mind that rejecting the null hypothesis is not an all-or-nothing decision.
The Type I error rate is affected by the α level: the lower the α level the lower the Type I error rate. It might seem that α is
the probability of a Type I error. However, this is not correct. Instead, α is the probability of a Type I error given that the
null hypothesis is true. If the null hypothesis is false, then it is impossible to make a Type I error.
The second type of error that can be made in significance testing is failing to reject a false null hypothesis. This kind of
error is called a Type II error. Unlike a Type I error, a Type II error is not really an error. When a statistical test is not
significant, it means that the data do not provide strong evidence that the null hypothesis is false. Lack of significance does
not support the conclusion that the null hypothesis is true. Therefore, a researcher should not make the mistake of
incorrectly concluding that the null hypothesis is true when a statistical test was not significant. Instead, the researcher
should consider the test inconclusive. Contrast this with a Type I error in which the researcher erroneously concludes that
the null hypothesis is false when, in fact, it is true.
A Type II error can only occur if the null hypothesis is false. If the null hypothesis is false, then the probability of a Type II
error is called β (beta). The probability of correctly rejecting a false null hypothesis equals 1- β and is called power. Power
is simply our ability to correctly detect an effect that exists. It is influenced by the size of the effect (larger effects are
easier to detect), the significance level we set (making it easier to reject the null makes it easier to detect an effect, but
increases the likelihood of a Type I Error), and the sample size used (larger samples make it easier to reject the null).
Misconceptions in Hypothesis Testing

Misconceptions about significance testing are common. This section lists three important ones.
1. Misconception: The probability value is the probability that the null hypothesis is false.
Proper interpretation: The probability value is the probability of a result as extreme or more extreme given that the
null hypothesis is true. It is the probability of the data given the null hypothesis. It is not the probability that the null
hypothesis is false.
2. Misconception: A low probability value indicates a large effect.
Proper interpretation: A low probability value indicates that the sample outcome (or one more extreme) would be
very unlikely if the null hypothesis were true. A low probability value can occur with small effect sizes, particularly
if the sample size is large.
3. Misconception: A non-significant outcome means that the null hypothesis is probably true.
Proper interpretation: A non-significant outcome means that the data do not conclusively demonstrate that the null
hypothesis is false.

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7.E: Introduction to Hypothesis Testing (Exercises)
1. In your own words, explain what the null hypothesis is.
Answer:
Your answer should include mention of the baseline assumption of no difference between the sample and the
population.
2. What are Type I and Type II Errors?

3. What is α ?
Answer:
Alpha is the significance level. It is the criteria we use when decided to reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis,
corresponding to a given proportion of the area under the normal distribution and a probability of finding extreme
scores assuming the null hypothesis is true.
4. Why do we phrase null and alternative hypotheses with population parameters and not sample means?
5. If our null hypothesis is “H : μ = 40 ”, what are the three possible alternative hypotheses?
0
Answer:
HA : μ ≠ 40 ,H
A : μ > 40 ,H A : μ < 40
6. Why do we state our hypotheses and decision criteria before we collect our data?
7. When and why do you calculate an effect size?
Answer:
We calculate an effect size when we find a statistically significant result to see if our result is practically meaningful or
important
8. Determine whether you would reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis in the following situations:
a. z = 1.99, two-tailed test at α = 0.05
b. z = 0.34, z∗ = 1.645
c. p = 0.03, α = 0.05
d. p = 0.015, α = 0.01
9. You are part of a trivia team and have tracked your team’s performance since you started playing, so you know that
your scores are normally distributed with μ = 78 and σ = 12. Recently, a new person joined the team, and you think the
scores have gotten better. Use hypothesis testing to see if the average score has improved based on the following 8
weeks’ worth of score data: 82, 74, 62, 68, 79, 94, 90, 81, 80.
Answer:
Step 1: H : μ = 78 “The average score is not different after the new person joined”, H
0 A : μ > 78 “The average score
has gone up since the new person joined.”
Step 2: One-tailed test to the right, assuming α = 0.05, z∗ = 1.645.
Step 3: X= 88.75, σ = 4.24, z = 2.54.

¯
¯¯¯
¯
¯¯
X
¯
¯
¯¯¯
Step 4: z > z∗ , Reject H . Based on 8 weeks of games, we can conclude that our average score (X = 88.75) is higher
0
now that the new person is on the team, z = 2.54, p < .05. Since the result is significant, we need an effect size:
Cohen’s d = 0.90, which is a large effect.
10. You get hired as a server at a local restaurant, and the manager tells you that servers’ tips are $42 on average but vary
about $12 (μ = 42, σ = 12). You decide to track your tips to see if you make a different amount, but because this is your
first job as a server, you don’t know if you will make more or less in tips. After working 16 shifts, you find that your

average nightly amount is $44.50 from tips. Test for a difference between this value and the population mean at the α =
0.05 level of significance.

Downtown Campus)

CHAPTER OVERVIEW
8: INTRODUCTION TO T-TESTS
Last chapter we made a big leap from basic descriptive statistics into full hypothesis testing and inferential statistics. For the rest of the unit,
we will be learning new tests, each of which is just a small adjustment on the test before it. In this chapter, we will learn about the first of
three t-tests, and we will learn a new method of testing the null hypothesis: confidence intervals.
8.1: THE T-STATISTIC

The z-statistic was a useful way to link the material and ease us into the new way to looking at data, but it isn’t a very common test because
it relies on knowing the populations standard deviation, σ, which is rarely going to be the case. Instead, we will estimate that parameter σ
using the sample statistic s in the same way that we estimate μ using X. Our new statistic is called t, and for testing one population mean
using a single sample (called a 1-sample t -test)
8.2: HYPOTHESIS TESTING WITH T

Hypothesis testing with the t-statistic works exactly the same way as z-tests did, following the four-step process of (1) Stating the
Hypothesis, (2) Finding the Critical Values, (3) Computing the Test Statistic, and (4) Making the Decision.
8.3: CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

8.E: INTRODUCTION TO T-TESTS (EXERCISES)
1 2/18/2022
8.1: The t-statistic
Last chapter, we were introduced to hypothesis testing using the z -statistic for sample means that we learned in Unit 1. This was a
useful way to link the material and ease us into the new way to looking at data, but it isn’t a very common test because it relies on
knowing the populations standard deviation, σ, which is rarely going to be the case. Instead, we will estimate that parameter σ
¯
¯¯¯
using the sample statistic s in the same way that we estimate μ using X (μ will still appear in our formulas because we suspect
something about its value and that is what we are testing). Our new statistic is called t , and for testing one population mean using a
single sample (called a 1-sample t -test) it takes the form:
¯ ¯
X −μ X −μ
t = = (8.1.1)
−
s ¯ s/ √n
X
Notice that t looks almost identical to z ; this is because they test the exact same thing: the value of a sample mean compared to
what we expect of the population. The only difference is that the standard error is now denoted s to indicate that we use the
¯
¯¯
X
¯
sample statistic for standard deviation, s , instead of the population parameter σ. The process of using and interpreting the standard
error and the full test statistic remain exactly the same.
In chapter 3 we learned that the formulae for sample standard deviation and population standard deviation differ by one key factor:
the denominator for the parameter is N but the denominator for the statistic is N – 1, also known as degrees of freedom, df .
Because we are using a new measure of spread, we can no longer use the standard normal distribution and the z -table to find our
critical values. For t -tests, we will use the t -distribution and t -table to find these values.
The t -distribution, like the standard normal distribution, is symmetric and normally distributed with a mean of 0 and standard error
(as the measure of standard deviation for sampling distributions) of 1. However, because the calculation of standard error uses
degrees of freedom, there will be a different t-distribution for every degree of freedom. Luckily, they all work exactly the same, so
in practice this difference is minor.
Figure 8.1.1 shows four curves: a normal distribution curve labeled z , and three tdistribution curves for 2, 10, and 30 degrees of
freedom. Two things should stand out: First, for lower degrees of freedom (e.g. 2), the tails of the distribution are much fatter,
meaning the a larger proportion of the area under the curve falls in the tail. This means that we will have to go farther out into the
tail to cut off the portion corresponding to 5% or α = 0.05, which will in turn lead to higher critical values. Second, as the degrees
of freedom increase, we get closer and closer to the z curve. Even the distribution with df = 30, corresponding to a sample size of
just 31 people, is nearly indistinguishable from z . In fact, a t -distribution with infinite degrees of freedom (theoretically, of course)
is exactly the standard normal distribution. Because of this, the bottom row of the t -table also includes the critical values for z -tests
at the specific significance levels. Even though these curves are very close, it is still important to use the correct table and critical
values, because small differences can add up quickly.
Figure 8.1.1 : Distributions comparing effects of degrees of freedom

The t -distribution table lists critical values for one- and two-tailed tests at several levels of significance arranged into columns. The
rows of the t -table list degrees of freedom up to df = 100 in order to use the appropriate distribution curve. It does not, however,
list all possible degrees of freedom in this range, because that would take too many rows. Above df = 40, the rows jump in
increments of 10. If a problem requires you to find critical values and the exact degrees of freedom is not listed, you always round

down to the next smallest number. For example, if you have 48 people in your sample, the degrees of freedom are N – 1 = 48 – 1 =
47; however, 47 doesn’t appear on our table, so we round down and use the critical values for df = 40, even though 50 is closer.
We do this because it avoids inflating Type I Error (false positives, see chapter 7) by using criteria that are too lax.

Campus)

8.2: Hypothesis Testing with t
Hypothesis testing with the t -statistic works exactly the same way as z -tests did, following the four-step process of
1. Stating the Hypothesis
2. Finding the Critical Values
3. Computing the Test Statistic
4. Making the Decision.
We will work though an example: let’s say that you move to a new city and find a an auto shop to change your oil. Your
old mechanic did the job in about 30 minutes (though you never paid close enough attention to know how much that
varied), and you suspect that your new shop takes much longer. After 4 oil changes, you think you have enough evidence
to demonstrate this.
Step 1: State the Hypotheses Our hypotheses for 1-sample t-tests are identical to those we used for z -tests. We still state
the null and alternative hypotheses mathematically in terms of the population parameter and written out in readable
English. For our example:
H0 : There is no difference in the average time to change a car’s oil
H0 : μ = 30
HA : This shop takes longer to change oil than your old mechanic
HA : μ > 30
Step 2: Find the Critical Values As noted above, our critical values still delineate the area in the tails under the curve
corresponding to our chosen level of significance. Because we have no reason to change significance levels, we will use α
= 0.05, and because we suspect a direction of effect, we have a one-tailed test. To find our critical values for t , we need to
add one more piece of information: the degrees of freedom. For this example:
df = N – 1 = 4– 1 = 3
Going to our t -table, we find the column corresponding to our one-tailed significance level and find where it intersects
with the row for 3 degrees of freedom. As shown in Figure 8.2.1: our critical value is t∗ = 2.353
Figure 8.2.1 : t -table

We can then shade this region on our t -distribution to visualize our rejection region

Figure 8.2.2 : Rejection Region
Step 3: Compute the Test Statistic The four wait times you experienced for your oil changes are the new shop were 46
minutes, 58 minutes, 40 minutes, and 71 minutes. We will use these to calculate X and s by first filling in the sum of
¯
¯¯¯
squares table in Table 8.2.1:

Table 8.2.1 : Sum of Squares Table
¯
¯¯¯ ¯
¯¯¯ ¯
¯¯¯ 2
X X −X (X − X)
46 -7.75 60.06
58 4.25 18.06
40 -13.75 189.06
71 17.25 297.56
Σ =215 Σ =0 Σ =564.74
After filling in the first row to get Σ=215, we find that the mean is X = 53.75 (215 divided by sample size 4), which
¯
¯¯¯
allows us to fill in the rest of the table to get our sum of squares SS = 564.74, which we then plug in to the formula for
standard deviation from chapter 3:
−−−−−−−−−− −−−
¯¯¯
¯
2
−−−−−−
∑(X − X ) SS 564.74
s =√ =√ =√ = 13.72
N −1 df 3
Next, we take this value and plug it in to the formula for standard error:
s 13.72
s¯¯¯¯¯ = − = = 6.86
X
√n 2
And, finally, we put the standard error, sample mean, and null hypothesis value into the formula for our test statistic t :
¯
¯¯¯
X−μ 53.75 − 30 23.75
t = = = = 3.46
s¯¯¯¯ 6.86 6.68
X
This may seem like a lot of steps, but it is really just taking our raw data to calculate one value at a time and carrying that
value forward into the next equation: data sample size/degrees of freedom mean sum of squares standard deviation
standard error test statistic. At each step, we simply match the symbols of what we just calculated to where they appear in
the next formula to make sure we are plugging everything in correctly.
Step 4: Make the Decision Now that we have our critical value and test statistic, we can make our decision using the same
criteria we used for a z -test. Our obtained t -statistic was t = 3.46 and our critical value was t∗ = 2.353 : t > t∗ , so we
reject the null hypothesis and conclude:
¯
¯¯¯
Based on our four oil changes, the new mechanic takes longer on average (X = 53.75) to change oil than our old mechanic,
t(3) = 3.46, p < .05.

Notice that we also include the degrees of freedom in parentheses next to t . And because we found a significant result, we
need to calculate an effect size, which is still Cohen’s d , but now we use s in place of σ:
¯¯¯
¯
X −μ 53.75 − 30.00
d = = = 1.73
s 13.72
This is a large effect. It should also be noted that for some things, like the minutes in our current example, we can also
interpret the magnitude of the difference we observed (23 minutes and 45 seconds) as an indicator of importance since
time is a familiar metric.

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8.3: Confidence Intervals
Up to this point, we have learned how to estimate the population parameter for the mean using sample data and a sample
statistic. From one point of view, this makes sense: we have one value for our parameter so we use a single value (called a
point estimate) to estimate it. However, we have seen that all statistics have sampling error and that the value we find for
the sample mean will bounce around based on the people in our sample, simply due to random chance. Thinking about
estimation from this perspective, it would make more sense to take that error into account rather than relying just on our
point estimate. To do this, we calculate what is known as a confidence interval.
A confidence interval starts with our point estimate then creates a range of scores considered plausible based on our
standard deviation, our sample size, and the level of confidence with which we would like to estimate the parameter. This
range, which extends equally in both directions away from the point estimate, is called the margin of error. We calculate
the margin of error by multiplying our two-tailed critical value by our standard error:
∗ −
Margin of Error = t (s/ √n ) (8.3.1)
One important consideration when calculating the margin of error is that it can only be calculated using the critical value
for a two-tailed test. This is because the margin of error moves away from the point estimate in both directions, so a one-
tailed value does not make sense.
The critical value we use will be based on a chosen level of confidence, which is equal to 1 – α . Thus, a 95% level of
confidence corresponds to α = 0.05. Thus, at the 0.05 level of significance, we create a 95% Confidence Interval. How to
interpret that is discussed further on.
Once we have our margin of error calculated, we add it to our point estimate for the mean to get an upper bound to the
confidence interval and subtract it from the point estimate for the mean to get a lower bound for the confidence interval:
¯
Upper Bound = X + Margin of Error
(8.3.2)
Lower Bound = X̄ − Margin of Error
Or simply:
¯¯¯
¯ ∗ −
Confidence Interval = X ± t (s/ √n ) (8.3.3)
To write out a confidence interval, we always use soft brackets and put the lower bound, a comma, and the upper bound:
Confidence Interval = (Lower Bound, Upper Bound) (8.3.4)
Let’s see what this looks like with some actual numbers by taking our oil change data and using it to create a 95%
confidence interval estimating the average length of time it takes at the new mechanic. We already found that our average
¯¯¯
¯
was X = 53.75 and our standard error was s = 6.86. We also found a critical value to test our hypothesis, but remember
¯
¯
X
¯¯
¯
that we were testing a one-tailed hypothesis, so that critical value won’t work. To see why that is, look at the column
headers on the t -table. The column for one-tailed α = 0.05 is the same as a two-tailed α = 0.10. If we used the old critical
value, we’d actually be creating a 90% confidence interval (1.00-0.10 = 0.90, or 90%). To find the correct value, we use
the column for two-tailed α = 0.05 and, again, the row for 3 degrees of freedom, to find t∗ = 3.182.
Now we have all the pieces we need to construct our confidence interval:
95%C I = 53.75 ± 3.182(6.86)
Upper Bound = 53.75 + 3.182(6.86)
U B = 53.75 + 21.83
U B = 75.58
Lower Bound = 53.75 − 3.182(6.86)
LB = 53.75 − 21.83
LB = 31.92
95%C I = (31.92, 75.58)

So we find that our 95% confidence interval runs from 31.92 minutes to 75.58 minutes, but what does that actually mean?
The range (31.92, 75.58) represents values of the mean that we consider reasonable or plausible based on our observed
data. It includes our point estimate of the mean, X = 53.75, in the center, but it also has a range of values that could also
¯¯¯
¯
have been the case based on what we know about how much these scores vary (i.e. our standard error).
It is very tempting to also interpret this interval by saying that we are 95% confident that the true population mean falls
within the range (31.92, 75.58), but this is not true. The reason it is not true is that phrasing our interpretation this way
suggests that we have firmly established an interval and the population mean does or does not fall into it, suggesting that
our interval is firm and the population mean will move around. However, the population mean is an absolute that does not
change; it is our interval that will vary from data collection to data collection, even taking into account our standard error.
The correct interpretation, then, is that we are 95% confident that the range (31.92, 75.58) brackets the true population
mean. This is a very subtle difference, but it is an important one.
Hypothesis Testing with Confidence Intervals

As a function of how they are constructed, we can also use confidence intervals to test hypotheses. However, we are
limited to testing two-tailed hypotheses only, because of how the intervals work, as discussed above.
Once a confidence interval has been constructed, using it to test a hypothesis is simple. The range of the confidence
interval brackets (or contains, or is around) the null hypothesis value, we fail to reject the null hypothesis. If it does not
bracket the null hypothesis value (i.e. if the entire range is above the null hypothesis value or below it), we reject the null
hypothesis. The reason for this is clear if we think about what a confidence interval represents. Remember: a confidence
interval is a range of values that we consider reasonable or plausible based on our data. Thus, if the null hypothesis value is
in that range, then it is a value that is plausible based on our observations. If the null hypothesis is plausible, then we have
no reason to reject it. Thus, if our confidence interval brackets the null hypothesis value, thereby making it a reasonable or
plausible value based on our observed data, then we have no evidence against the null hypothesis and fail to reject it.
However, if we build a confidence interval of reasonable values based on our observations and it does not contain the null
hypothesis value, then we have no empirical (observed) reason to believe the null hypothesis value and therefore reject the
null hypothesis.
Let’s see an example. You hear that the national average on a measure of friendliness is 38 points. You want to know if
people in your community are more or less friendly than people nationwide, so you collect data from 30 random people in
town to look for a difference. We’ll follow the same four step hypothesis testing procedure as before.
Step 1: State the Hypotheses We will start by laying out our null and alternative hypotheses:
H0 : There is no difference in how friendly the local community is compared to the national average
H0 : μ = 38
HA : There is a difference in how friendly the local community is compared to the national average
HA : μ ≠ 38
Step 2: Find the Critical Values We need our critical values in order to determine the width of our margin of error. We will
assume a significance level of α = 0.05 (which will give us a 95% CI). From the t -table, a two-tailed critical value at α =
0.05 with 29 degrees of freedom (N – 1 = 30 – 1 = 29) is t∗ = 2.045.
Step 3: Calculations Now we can construct our confidence interval. After we collect our data, we find that the average
¯¯¯
¯
person in our community scored 39.85, or X = 39.85, and our standard deviation was s = 5.61. First, we need to use this
standard deviation, plus our sample size of N = 30, to calculate our standard error:
s 5.61
s¯¯¯¯¯ = = = 1.02
X −
√n 5.48
Now we can put that value, our point estimate for the sample mean, and our critical value from step 2 into the formula for
a confidence interval:
95%C I = 39.85 ± 2.045(1.02)

Upper Bound = 39.85 + 2.045(1.02)
U B = 39.85 + 2.09
U B = 41.94
Lower Bound = 39.85 − 2.045(1.02)
LB = 39.85 − 2.09
LB = 37.76
95%C I = (37.76, 41.94)
Step 4: Make the Decision Finally, we can compare our confidence interval to our null hypothesis value. The null value of
38 is higher than our lower bound of 37.76 and lower than our upper bound of 41.94. Thus, the confidence interval
brackets our null hypothesis value, and we fail to reject the null hypothesis:
¯¯¯
¯
Fail to Reject H . Based on our sample of 30 people, our community not different in average friendliness (X =
0
39.85) than the nation as a whole, 95% CI = (37.76, 41.94).

Note that we don’t report a test statistic or p-value because that is not how we tested the hypothesis, but we do report the
value we found for our confidence interval.
An important characteristic of hypothesis testing is that both methods will always give you the same result. That is because
both are based on the standard error and critical values in their calculations. To check this, we can calculate a t-statistic for
the example above and find it to be t = 1.81, which is smaller than our critical value of 2.045 and fails to reject the null
hypothesis.
Confidence Intervals using z Confidence intervals can also be constructed using z -score criteria, if one knows the
population standard deviation. The format, calculations, and interpretation are all exactly the same, only replacing t∗ with
z∗ and s ¯
¯¯with σ .
¯
¯ ¯
¯¯¯
¯
X X

Downtown Campus)

8.E: Introduction to t-tests (Exercises)
1. What is the difference between a z -test and a 1-sample t -test?
Answer:
A z -test uses population standard deviation for calculating standard error and gets critical values based on the standard
normal distribution. A t-test uses sample standard deviation as an estimate when calculating standard error and gets
critical values from the t-distribution based on degrees of freedom.
2. What does a confidence interval represent?

3. What is the relationship between a chosen level of confidence for a confidence interval and how wide that interval is?
For instance, if you move from a 95% CI to a 90% CI, what happens? Hint: look at the t-table to see how critical values
change when you change levels of significance.
Answer:
As the level of confidence gets higher, the interval gets wider. In order to speak with more confidence about having
found the population mean, you need to cast a wider net. This happens because critical values for higher confidence
levels are larger, which creates a wider margin of error.
¯¯¯
¯
4. Construct a confidence interval around the sample mean X = 25 for the following conditions:
a. N = 25, s = 15, 95% confidence level
b. N = 25, s = 15, 90% confidence level
c. s = 4.5, α = 0.05, df = 20
¯
¯
X
¯¯
¯
d. s = 12, df = 16 (yes, that is all the information you need)

5. True or False: a confidence interval represents the most likely location of the true population mean.
Answer:
False: a confidence interval is a range of plausible scores that may or may not bracket the true population mean.
6. You hear that college campuses may differ from the general population in terms of political affiliation, and you want to
use hypothesis testing to see if this is true and, if so, how big the difference is. You know that the average political
affiliation in the nation is μ = 4.00 on a scale of 1.00 to 7.00, so you gather data from 150 college students across the
nation to see if there is a difference. You find that the average score is 3.76 with a standard deviation of 1.52. Use a 1-
sample t -test to see if there is a difference at the α = 0.05 level.
7. You hear a lot of talk about increasing global temperature, so you decide to see for yourself if there has been an actual
change in recent years. You know that the average land temperature from 1951-1980 was 8.79 degrees Celsius. You
find annual average temperature data from 1981-2017 and decide to construct a 99% confidence interval (because you
want to be as sure as possible and look for differences in both directions, not just one) using this data to test for a
difference from the previous average.
Answer:
¯¯¯
¯
X = 9.44, s = 0.35, s = 0.06, df = 36, t∗ = 2.719, 99% CI = (9.28, 9.60); CI does not bracket μ , reject null hypothesis.
¯
¯¯
X
¯
d = 1.83

8. Determine whether you would reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis in the following situations:
a. t = 2.58, N = 21, two-tailed test at α = 0.05
b. t = 1.99, N = 49, one-tailed test at α = 0.01
c. μ = 47.82, 99% CI = (48.71, 49.28)
d. μ = 0, 95% CI = (-0.15, 0.20)
9. You are curious about how people feel about craft beer, so you gather data from 55 people in the city on whether or not
they like it. You code your data so that 0 is neutral, positive scores indicate liking craft beer, and negative scores
¯¯¯
¯
indicate disliking craft beer. You find that the average opinion was X = 1.10 and the spread was s = 0.40, and you test
for a difference from 0 at the α = 0.05 level.
Answer:
Step 1: H : μ = 0 “The average person has a neutral opinion towards craft beer”,
0 HA : μ ≠ 0 “Overall people will
have an opinion about craft beer, either good or bad.”
Step 2: Two-tailed test, df = 54, t∗ = 2.009.
¯¯¯
¯
Step 3: X = 1.10, s = 0.05, t = 22.00.
¯
¯¯
X
¯
Step 4: t > t∗ , Reject H .

0
¯¯¯
¯
Based on opinions from 55 people, we can conclude that the average opinion of craft beer (X = 1.10) is positive, t(54)
= 22.00, p < .05. Since the result is significant, we need an effect size: Cohen’s d = 2.75, which is a large effect.
10. You want to know if college students have more stress in their daily lives than the general population (μ = 12), so you
¯¯¯
¯
gather data from 25 people to test your hypothesis. Your sample has an average stress score of X = 13.11 and a standard
deviation of s = 3.89. Use a 1-sample t -test to see if there is a difference.

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CHAPTER OVERVIEW
9: REPEATED MEASURES
So far, we have dealt with data measured on a single variable at a single point in time, allowing us to gain an understanding of the logic and
process behind statistics and hypothesis testing. Now, we will look at a slightly different type of data that has new information we couldn’t
get at before: change. Specifically, we will look at how the value of a variable, within people, changes across two time points. This is a very
powerful thing to do, and, as we will see shortly, it involves only a v
9.1: CHANGE AND DIFFERENCES

9.2: HYPOTHESES OF CHANGE AND DIFFERENCES
9.3: INCREASING SATISFACTION AT WORK
9.4: BAD PRESS
9.E: REPEATED MEASURES (EXERCISES)
1 2/18/2022
9.1: Change and Differences
Researchers are often interested in change over time. Sometimes we want to see if change occurs naturally, and other times
we are hoping for change in response to some manipulation. In each of these cases, we measure a single variable at
different times, and what we are looking for is whether or not we get the same score at time 2 as we did at time 1. The
absolute value of our measurements does not matter – all that matters is the change. Let’s look at an example:
Table 9.1.1 : Raw and difference scores before and after training.
Before After Improvement
6 9 3
7 7 0
4 10 6
1 3 2
8 10 2
Table 9.1.1 shows scores on a quiz that five employees received before they took a training course and after they took the
course. The difference between these scores (i.e. the score after minus the score before) represents improvement in the
employees’ ability. This third column is what we look at when assessing whether or not our training was effective. We
want to see positive scores, which indicate that the employees’ performance went up. What we are not interested in is how
good they were before they took the training or after the training. Notice that the lowest scoring employee before the
training (with a score of 1) improved just as much as the highest scoring employee before the training (with a score of 8),
regardless of how far apart they were to begin with. There’s also one improvement score of 0, meaning that the training did
not help this employee. An important factor in this is that the participants received the same assessment at both time
points. To calculate improvement or any other difference score, we must measure only a single variable.
When looking at change scores like the ones in Table 9.1.1, we calculate our difference scores by taking the time 2 score
and subtracting the time 1 score. That is:
Xd = XT2 − XT1 (9.1.1)
Where X is the difference score, X is the score on the variable at time 1, and X is the score on the variable at time 2.
d T1 T2
The difference score, X , will be the data we use to test for improvement or change. We subtract time 2 minus time 1 for
d
ease of interpretation; if scores get better, then the difference score will be positive. Similarly, if we’re measuring
something like reaction time or depression symptoms that we are trying to reduce, then better outcomes (lower scores) will
yield negative difference scores.
We can also test to see if people who are matched or paired in some way agree on a specific topic. For example, we can see
if a parent and a child agree on the quality of home life, or we can see if two romantic partners agree on how serious and
committed their relationship is. In these situations, we also subtract one score from the other to get a difference score. This
time, however, it doesn’t matter which score we subtract from the other because what we are concerned with is the
agreement.
In both of these types of data, what we have are multiple scores on a single variable. That is, a single observation or data
point is comprised of two measurements that are put together into one difference score. This is what makes the analysis of
change unique – our ability to link these measurements in a meaningful way. This type of analysis would not work if we
had two separate samples of people that weren’t related at the individual level, such as samples of people from different
states that we gathered independently. Such datasets and analyses are the subject of the following chapter.
A rose by any other name…

It is important to point out that this form of t-test has been called many different things by many different people over the
years: “matched pairs”, “paired samples”, “repeated measures”, “dependent measures”, “dependent samples”, and many
others. What all of these names have in common is that they describe the analysis of two scores that are related in a
systematic way within people or within pairs, which is what each of the datasets usable in this analysis have in common.
As such, all of these names are equally appropriate, and the choice of which one to use comes down to preference. In this

text, we will refer to paired samples, though the appearance of any of the other names throughout this chapter should not
be taken to refer to a different analysis: they are all the same thing.
Now that we have an understanding of what difference scores are and know how to calculate them, we can use them to test
hypotheses. As we will see, this works exactly the same way as testing hypotheses about one sample mean with a tstatistic.
The only difference is in the format of the null and alternative hypotheses.

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9.2: Hypotheses of Change and Differences
When we work with difference scores, our research questions have to do with change. Did scores improve? Did symptoms
get better? Did prevalence go up or down? Our hypotheses will reflect this. Remember that the null hypothesis is the idea
that there is nothing interesting, notable, or impactful represented in our dataset. In a paired samples t-test, that takes the
form of ‘no change’. There is no improvement in scores or decrease in symptoms. Thus, our null hypothesis is:
H0 : There is no change or difference
H0 : μD = 0
As with our other null hypotheses, we express the null hypothesis for paired samples t -tests in both words and
mathematical notation. The exact wording of the written-out version should be changed to match whatever research
question we are addressing (e.g. “ There is no change in ability scores after training”). However, the mathematical version
of the null hypothesis is always exactly the same: the average change score is equal to zero. Our population parameter for
the average is still μ , but it now has a subscript D to denote the fact that it is the average change score and not the average
raw observation before or after our manipulation. Obviously individual difference scores can go up or down, but the null
hypothesis states that these positive or negative change values are just random chance and that the true average change
score across all people is 0.
Our alternative hypotheses will also follow the same format that they did before: they can be directional if we suspect a
change or difference in a specific direction, or we can use an inequality sign to test for any change:
HA : There is a change or difference
HA : μD ≠ 0
HA : The average score increases

HA : μD > 0
HA : The average score decreases

HA : μD < 0
As before, you choice of which alternative hypothesis to use should be specified before you collect data based on your
research question and any evidence you might have that would indicate a specific directional (or non-directional) change.
Critical Values and Decision Criteria

As with before, once we have our hypotheses laid out, we need to find our critical values that will serve as our decision
criteria. This step has not changed at all from the last chapter. Our critical values are based on our level of significance
(still usually α = 0.05), the directionality of our test (one-tailed or two-tailed), and the degrees of freedom, which are still
calculated as df = n– 1 . Because this is a t -test like the last chapter, we will find our critical values on the same t -table
using the same process of identifying the correct column based on our significance level and directionality and the correct
row based on our degrees of freedom or the next lowest value if our exact degrees of freedom are not presented. After we
calculate our test statistic, our decision criteria are the same as well: p < α or t > t∗ .
obt
Test Statistic
Our test statistic for our change scores follows exactly the same format as it did for our 1-sample t -test. In fact, the only
difference is in the data that we use. For our change test, we first calculate a difference score as shown above. Then, we
use those scores as the raw data in the same mean calculation, standard error formula, and t -statistic. Let’s look at each of
these.
The mean difference score is calculated in the same way as any other mean: sum each of the individual difference scores
and divide by the sample size.
¯
¯¯¯¯¯¯
¯
ΣXD
XD = (9.2.1)
n

Here we are using the subscript D to keep track of that fact that these are difference scores instead of raw scores; it has no
actual effect on our calculation. Using this, we calculate the standard deviation of the difference scores the same way as
well:
−−−−−−−−−− − − −−
 2
¯
¯¯¯¯¯¯
¯ −−−

∑ (XD − XD )
 SS
sD = ⎷ =√ (9.2.2)
n−1 df
We will find the numerator, the Sum of Squares, using the same table format that we learned in chapter 3. Once we have
our standard deviation, we can find the standard error:
SD −
s¯¯¯¯¯ = / √n (9.2.3)
XD
Finally, our test statistic t has the same structure as well:

¯
¯¯¯¯¯¯
¯
XD − μD
t = (9.2.4)
s¯¯¯¯¯
XD
As we can see, once we calculate our difference scores from our raw measurements, everything else is exactly the same.
Let’s see an example.

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9.3: Increasing Satisfaction at Work
Workers at a local company have been complaining that working conditions have gotten very poor, hours are too long, and they
don’t feel supported by the management. The company hires a consultant to come in and help fix the situation before it gets so bad
that the employees start to quit. The consultant first assesses 40 of the employee’s level of job satisfaction as part of focus groups
used to identify specific changes that might help. The company institutes some of these changes, and six months later the
consultant returns to measure job satisfaction again. Knowing that some interventions miss the mark and can actually make things
worse, the consultant tests for a difference in either direction (i.e. and increase or a decreased in average job satisfaction) at the α =
0.05 level of significance.
Step 1: State the Hypotheses First, we state our null and alternative hypotheses:
H0 : There is no change in average job satisfaction
H0 : μD = 0
HA : There is an increase in average job satisfaction

HA : μD > 0
In this case, we are hoping that the changes we made will improve employee satisfaction, and, because we based the changes on
employee recommendations, we have good reason to believe that they will. Thus, we will use a one-directional alternative
hypothesis.
Step 2: Find the Critical Values Our critical values will once again be based on our level of significance, which we know is α =
0.05, the directionality of our test, which is one-tailed to the right, and our degrees of freedom. For our dependent-samples t -test,
the degrees of freedom are still given as df = n– 1 . For this problem, we have 40 people, so our degrees of freedom are 39. Going
to our t-table, we find that the critical value is t∗ = 1.685 as shown in Figure 9.3.1.
Figure 9.3.1 : Critical region for one-tailed t -test at α = 0.05

Step 3: Calculate the Test Statistic Now that the criteria are set, it is time to calculate the test statistic. The data obtained by the
¯
¯¯¯¯¯
¯
consultant found that the difference scores from time 1 to time 2 had a mean of X = 2.96 and a standard deviation of s
D D = 2.85.
Using this information, plus the size of the sample (N = 40), we first calculate the standard error:
−−
s¯x
¯
¯¯¯
¯¯ = s
D/ √n = 2.85/
√40 = 2.85/6.32 = 0.46
D
Now, we can put that value, along with our sample mean and null hypothesis value, into the formula for t and calculate the test
statistic:
¯
¯¯¯¯¯¯
¯
XD − μD 2.96 − 0
t = = = 6.43
s¯¯¯¯¯ 0.46
XD
Notice that, because the null hypothesis value of a dependent samples t -test is always 0, we can simply divide our obtained sample
mean by the standard error.
Step 4: Make the Decision We have obtained a test statistic of t = 6.43 that we can compare to our previously established critical
value of t∗ = 1.685. 6.43 is larger than 1.685, so t > t∗ and we reject the null hypothesis:

Reject H . Based on the sample data from 40 workers, we can say that the intervention statistically significantly improved
0
job satisfaction (X = 2.96) among the workers, t(39) = 6.43, p < 0.05.
¯
¯¯¯¯¯
D
¯
Because this result was statistically significant, we will want to calculate Cohen’s d as an effect size using the same format as we
did for the last t -test:
¯
¯¯¯¯¯¯
¯
XD − μD 2.96
t = = = 1.04
sD 2.85
This is a large effect size. Notice again that we can omit the null hypothesis value here because it is always equal to 0.
Hopefully the above example made it clear that running a dependent samples t -test to look for differences before and after some
treatment works exactly the same way as a regular 1-sample t -test does, which was just a small change in how z -tests were
performed in chapter 7. At this point, this process should feel familiar, and we will continue to make small adjustments to this
familiar process as we encounter new types of data to test new types of research questions.

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9.4: Bad Press
Let’s say that a bank wants to make sure that their new commercial will make them look good to the public, so they recruit
7 people to view the commercial as a focus group. The focus group members fill out a short questionnaire about how they
view the company, then watch the commercial and fill out the same questionnaire a second time. The bank really wants to
find significant results, so they test for a change at α = 0.10. However, they use a 2-tailed test since they know that past
commercials have not gone over well with the public, and they want to make sure the new one does not backfire. They
decide to test their hypothesis using a confidence interval to see just how spread out the opinions are. As we will see,
confidence intervals work the same way as they did before, just like with the test statistic.
Step 1: State the Hypotheses As always, we start with hypotheses:
H0 : There is no change in how people view the bank
H0 : μD = 0
HA : There is a change in how people view the bank

HA : μD ≠ 0
Step 2: Find the Critical Values Just like with our regular hypothesis testing procedure, we will need critical values from
the appropriate level of significance and degrees of freedom in order to form our confidence interval. Because we have 7
participants, our degrees of freedom are df = 6. From our t-table, we find that the critical value corresponding to this df at
this level of significance is t∗ = 1.943.
Step 3: Calculate the Confidence Interval The data collected before (time 1) and after (time 2) the participants viewed the
commercial is presented in Table 9.4.1. In order to build our confidence interval, we will first have to calculate the mean
and standard deviation of the difference scores, which are also in Table 9.4.1. As a reminder, the difference scores are
calculated as Time 2 – Time 1.
Table 9.4.1 : Opinions of the bank
Time 1 Time 2 XD
3 2 -1
3 6 3
5 3 -2
8 4 -4
3 9 6
1 2 1
4 5 1
The mean of the difference scores is:
¯
¯¯¯¯¯¯
¯
∑ XD 4
XD = = = 0.57
n 7
The standard deviation will be solved by first using the Sum of Squares Table:
Table 9.4.2 : Sum of Squares
¯
¯¯¯¯¯¯
¯ ¯
¯¯¯¯¯¯
¯ 2
XD XD − XD (XD − XD )
-1 -1.57 2.46
3 2.43 5.90
-2 -2.57 6.60
-4 -4.57 20.88
6 5.43 29.48
1 0.43 0.18

¯
¯¯¯¯¯¯
¯ ¯
¯¯¯¯¯¯
¯ 2
XD XD − XD (XD − XD )
1 0.43 0.18
Σ = 4 Σ = 0 Σ = 65.68
−−− −−−−−
SS 65.68 −−−−
sD = √ =√ = √10.95 = 3.31
df 6
Finally, we find the standard error:

SD − –
s¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ = / √n = 3.31/ √7 = 1.25
XD
We now have all the pieces needed to compute our confidence interval:
¯
¯¯¯¯¯¯
¯ ∗
95%C I = XD ± t (s
¯ )
XD
95%C I = 0.57 ± 1.943(1.25)
Upper Bound = 0.57 + 1.943(1.25)
U B = 0.57 + 2.43
U B = 3.00
Lower Bound = 0.57 − 1.943(1.25)
LB = 0.57 − 2.43
LB = −1.86
95%C I = (−1.86, 3.00)
Step 4: Make the Decision Remember that the confidence interval represents a range of values that seem plausible or
reasonable based on our observed data. The interval spans -1.86 to 3.00, which includes 0, our null hypothesis value.
Because the null hypothesis value is in the interval, it is considered a reasonable value, and because it is a reasonable
value, we have no evidence against it. We fail to reject the null hypothesis.
Fail to Reject H . Based on our focus group of 7 people, we cannot say that the average change in opinion (X = 0.57)
0
¯
¯¯¯¯¯¯
D
¯
was any better or worse after viewing the commercial, CI: (-1.86, 3.00).
As with before, we only report the confidence interval to indicate how we performed the test.

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9.E: Repeated Measures (Exercises)
1. What is the difference between a 1-sample t -test and a dependent-samples t -test? How are they alike?
Answer:
A 1-sample t-test uses raw scores to compare an average to a specific value. A dependent samples t-test uses two raw
scores from each person to calculate difference scores and test for an average difference score that is equal to zero. The
calculations, steps, and interpretation is exactly the same for each.
2. Name 3 research questions that could be addressed using a dependent samples t -test.
3. What are difference scores and why do we calculate them?
Answer:
Difference scores indicate change or discrepancy relative to a single person or pair of people. We calculate them to
eliminate individual differences in our study of change or agreement.
4. Why is the null hypothesis for a dependent-samples t -test always μ = 0 ? D
5. A researcher is interested in testing whether explaining the processes of statistics helps increase trust in computer
algorithms. He wants to test for a difference at the α = 0.05 level and knows that some people may trust the algorithms
less after the training, so he uses a two-tailed test. He gathers pre-post data from 35 people and finds that the average
¯
¯¯¯¯¯¯
¯
difference score is X = 12.10 with a standard deviation of s = 17.39. Conduct a hypothesis test to answer the
D D
research question.
Answer:
Step 1: H : μ = 0 “The average change in trust of algorithms is 0”, H
0 A : μ ≠0 “People’s opinions of how much they
trust algorithms changes.”
Step 3: X = 12.10, s
¯
¯¯¯¯¯¯
D
¯
¯
¯¯¯¯¯¯
XD
¯ = 2.94, t = 4.12.
Step 4: t > t∗ , Reject H . Based on opinions from 35 people, we can conclude that people trust algorithms more (X =
0
¯
¯¯¯¯¯¯
D
¯
12.10) after learning statistics, t(34) = 4.12, p < .05. Since the result is significant, we need an effect size: Cohen’s d
= 0.70, which is a moderate to large effect.
6. Decide whether you would reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis in the following situations:
¯
¯¯¯¯¯¯
¯
a. X = 3.50, s = 1.10, n = 12, α = 0.05, two-tailed test
D D
b. 95% CI= (0.20,1.85)

c. t = 2.98, t∗ = -2.36, one-tailed test to the left
d. 90% CI = (-1.12, 4.36)
7. Calculate difference scores for the following data:
Time 1 Time 2 XD
61 83
75 89
91 98
83 92
74 80
82 88
98 98
82 77

Time 1 Time 2 XD
69 88
76 79
91 91
70 80
Answer:
Time 1 Time 2 XD
61 83 22
75 89 14
91 98 7
83 92 9
74 80 6
82 88 6
98 98 0
82 77 -5
69 88 19
76 79 3
91 91 0
70 80 10
8. You want to know if an employee’s opinion about an organization is the same as the opinion of that employee’s boss.
You collect data from 18 employee-supervisor pairs and code the difference scores so that positive scores indicate that
the employee has a higher opinion and negative scores indicate that the boss has a higher opinion (meaning that
¯
¯¯¯¯¯¯
¯
difference scores of 0 indicate no difference and complete agreement). You find that the mean difference score is X = D
-3.15 with a standard deviation of s = 1.97. Test this hypothesis at the α = 0.01 level.
D
¯
¯¯¯¯¯¯
¯
9. Construct confidence intervals from a mean of X = 1.25, standard error of s = 0.45, and df = 10 at the 90%, 95%,
D ¯
¯¯¯¯¯¯
XD
¯
and 99% confidence level. Describe what happens as confidence changes and whether to reject H . 0
Answer:
At the 90% confidence level, t∗ = 1.812 and CI = (0.43, 2.07) so we reject H . At the 95% confidence level, t∗ = 2.228
0
and CI = (0.25, 2.25) so we reject H . At the 99% confidence level, t∗ = 3.169 and CI = (-0.18, 2.68) so we fail to
0
reject H . As the confidence level goes up, our interval gets wider (which is why we have higher confidence), and
0
eventually we do not reject the null hypothesis because the interval is so wide that it contains 0.
10. A professor wants to see how much students learn over the course of a semester. A pre-test is given before the class
begins to see what students know ahead of time, and the same test is given at the end of the semester to see what
students know at the end. The data are below. Test for an improvement at the α = 0.05 level. Did scores increase? How
much did scores increase?
Pretest Posttest XD
90 89
60 66
95 99
93 91
95 100

67 64
89 91
90 95
94 95
83 89
75 82
87 92
82 83
82 85
88 93
66 69
90 90
93 100
86 95
91 96

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CHAPTER OVERVIEW
10: INDEPENDENT SAMPLES
We have seen how to compare a single mean against a given value and how to utilize difference scores to look for meaningful, consistent
change via a single mean difference. Now, we will learn how to compare two separate means from groups that do not overlap to see if there
is a difference between them. The process of testing hypotheses about two means is exactly the same as it is for testing hypotheses about a
single mean, and the logical structure of the formulae is the same as well.
10.1: DIFFERENCE OF MEANS

Last chapter, we learned about mean differences, that is, the average value of difference scores. Those difference scores came from ONE
group and TWO time points (or two perspectives). Now, we will deal with the difference of the means, that is, the average values of
separate groups that are represented by separate descriptive statistics. This analysis involves TWO groups and ONE time point. As with all
of our other tests as well, both of these analyses are concerned with a single variable.
10.2: RESEARCH QUESTIONS ABOUT INDEPENDENT MEANS

10.3: HYPOTHESES AND DECISION CRITERIA
10.4: INDEPENDENT SAMPLES T-STATISTIC
10.5: STANDARD ERROR AND POOLED VARIANCE
10.6: MOVIES AND MOOD
10.7: EFFECT SIZES AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
10.8: HOMOGENEITY OF VARIANCE
10.E: INDEPENDENT SAMPLES (EXERCISES)
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10.1: Difference of Means
Last chapter, we learned about mean differences, that is, the average value of difference scores. Those difference scores
came from ONE group and TWO time points (or two perspectives). Now, we will deal with the difference of the means,
that is, the average values of separate groups that are represented by separate descriptive statistics. This analysis involves
TWO groups and ONE time point. As with all of our other tests as well, both of these analyses are concerned with a single
variable.
It is very important to keep these two tests separate and understand the distinctions between them because they assess very
different questions and require different approaches to the data. When in doubt, think about how the data were collected
and where they came from. If they came from two time points with the same people (sometimes referred to as
“longitudinal” data), you know you are working with repeated measures data (the measurement literally was repeated) and
will use a repeated measures/dependent samples t -test. If it came from a single time point that used separate groups, you
need to look at the nature of those groups and if they are related. Can individuals in one group being meaningfully matched
up with one and only one individual from the other group? For example, are they a romantic couple? If so, we call those
data matched and we use a matched pairs/dependent samples t -test. However, if there’s no logical or meaningful way to
link individuals across groups, or if there is no overlap between the groups, then we say the groups are independent and
use the independent samples t -test, the subject of this chapter.

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10.2: Research Questions about Independent Means
Many research ideas in the behavioral sciences and other areas of research are concerned with whether or not two means
are the same or different. Logically, we therefore say that these research questions are concerned with group mean
differences. That is, on average, do we expect a person from Group A to be higher or lower on some variable that a person
from Group B. In any time of research design looking at group mean differences, there are some key criteria we must
consider: the groups must be mutually exclusive (i.e. you can only be part of one group at any given time) and the groups
have to be measured on the same variable (i.e. you can’t compare personality in one group to reaction time in another
group since those values would not be the same anyway).
Let’s look at one of the most common and logical examples: testing a new medication. When a new medication is
developed, the researchers who created it need to demonstrate that it effectively treats the symptoms they are trying to
alleviate. The simplest design that will answer this question involves two groups: one group that receives the new
medication (the “treatment” group) and one group that receives a placebo (the “control” group). Participants are randomly
assigned to one of the two groups (remember that random assignment is the hallmark of a true experiment), and the
researchers test the symptoms in each person in each group after they received either the medication or the placebo. They
then calculate the average symptoms in each group and compare them to see if the treatment group did better (i.e. had
fewer or less severe symptoms) than the control group.
In this example, we had two groups: treatment and control. Membership in these two groups was mutually exclusive: each
individual participant received either the experimental medication or the placebo. No one in the experiment received both,
so there was no overlap between the two groups. Additionally, each group could be measured on the same variable:
symptoms related to the disease or ailment being treated. Because each group was measured on the same variable, the
average scores in each group could be meaningfully compared. If the treatment was ineffective, we would expect that the
average symptoms of someone receiving the treatment would be the same as the average symptoms of someone receiving
the placebo (i.e. there is no difference between the groups). However, if the treatment WAS effective, we would expect
fewer symptoms from the treatment group, leading to a lower group average.
Now let’s look at an example using groups that already exist. A common, and perhaps salient, question is how students feel
about their job prospects after graduation. Suppose that we have narrowed our potential choice of college down to two
universities and, in the course of trying to decide between the two, we come across a survey that has data from each
university on how students at those universities feel about their future job prospects. As with our last example, we have
two groups: University A and University B, and each participant is in only one of the two groups (assuming there are no
transfer students who were somehow able to rate both universities). Because students at each university completed the
same survey, they are measuring the same thing, so we can use a t -test to compare the average perceptions of students at
each university to see if they are the same. If they are the same, then we should continue looking for other things about
each university to help us decide on where to go. But, if they are different, we can use that information in favor of the
university with higher job prospects.
As we can see, the grouping variable we use for an independent samples t -test can be a set of groups we create (as in the
experimental medication example) or groups that already exist naturally (as in the university example). There are countless
other examples of research questions relating to two group means, making the independent samples t -test one of the most
widely used analyses around.

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10.3: Hypotheses and Decision Criteria
The process of testing hypotheses using an independent samples t -test is the same as it was in the last three chapters, and it
starts with stating our hypotheses and laying out the criteria we will use to test them.
Our null hypothesis for an independent samples t -test is the same as all others: there is no difference. The means of the
two groups are the same under the null hypothesis, no matter how those groups were formed. Mathematically, this takes on
two equivalent forms:
H0 : μ1 = μ2
or
H0 : μ1 − μ2 = 0
Both of these formulations of the null hypothesis tell us exactly the same thing: that the numerical value of the means is
the same in both groups. This is more clear in the first formulation, but the second formulation also makes sense (any
number minus itself is always zero) and helps us out a little when we get to the math of the test statistic. Either one is
acceptable and you only need to report one. The English interpretation of both of them is also the same:
H0 : There is no difference between the means of the two groups
Our alternative hypotheses are also unchanged: we simply replace the equal sign (=) with one of the three inequalities (>,
<, ≠):
HA : μ1 > μ2
HA : μ1 < μ2
HA : μ1 ≠ μ2
Or
HA : μ1 − μ2 > 0
HA : μ1 − μ2 < 0
HA : μ1 − μ2 ≠ 0
Whichever formulation you chose for the null hypothesis should be the one you use for the alternative hypothesis (be
consistent), and the interpretation of them is always the same:
HA : There is a difference between the means of the two groups
Notice that we are now dealing with two means instead of just one, so it will be very important to keep track of which
mean goes with which population and, by extension, which dataset and sample data. We use subscripts to differentiate
between the populations, so make sure to keep track of which is which. If it is helpful, you can also use more descriptive
subscripts. To use the experimental medication example:
H0 : There is no difference between the means of the treatment and control groups
H0 : μtreatment = μcontrol
HA : There is a difference between the means of the treatment and control groups
HA : μtreatment ≠ μcontrol
Once we have our hypotheses laid out, we can set our criteria to test them using the same three pieces of information as
before: significance level (α ), directionality (left, right, or two-tailed), and degrees of freedom, which for an independent
samples t -test are:
df = n1 + n2 − 2
This looks different than before, but it is just adding the individual degrees of freedom from each group (n– 1) together.
Notice that the sample sizes, n , also get subscripts so we can tell them apart.

For an independent samples t -test, it is often the case that our two groups will have slightly different sample sizes, either
due to chance or some characteristic of the groups themselves. Generally, this is not as issue, so long as one group is not
massively larger than the other group. What is of greater concern is keeping track of which is which using the subscripts.

Downtown Campus)

10.4: Independent Samples t-statistic
The test statistic for our independent samples t -test takes on the same logical structure and format as our other t -tests: our
observed effect minus our null hypothesis value, all divided by the standard error:
¯¯¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯¯¯
¯
(X1 − X2 ) − (μ1 − μ2 )
t = (10.4.1)
s¯¯¯¯¯ ¯
¯¯¯¯¯
¯
X 1 −X2
This looks like more work to calculate, but remember that our null hypothesis states that the quantity μ 1 − μ2 = 0 , so we
can drop that out of the equation and are left with:
¯¯¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯¯¯
¯
(X1 − X2 )
t = (10.4.2)
s¯¯¯¯¯ ¯
¯¯¯¯¯
¯
X 1 −X2
Our standard error in the denomination is still standard deviation (s ) with a subscript denoting what it is the standard error
of. Because we are dealing with the difference between two separate means, rather than a single mean or single mean of
difference scores, we put both means in the subscript. Calculating our standard error, as we will see next, is where the
biggest differences between this t -test and other t -tests appears. However, once we do calculate it and use it in our test
statistic, everything else goes back to normal. Our decision criteria is still comparing our obtained test statistic to our
critical value, and our interpretation based on whether or not we reject the null hypothesis is unchanged as well.

Downtown Campus)

10.5: Standard Error and Pooled Variance
Recall that the standard error is the average distance between any given sample mean and the center of its corresponding sampling
distribution, and it is a function of the standard deviation of the population (either given or estimated) and the sample size. This
definition and interpretation hold true for our independent samples t -test as well, but because we are working with two samples
drawn from two populations, we have to first combine their estimates of standard deviation – or, more accurately, their estimates of
variance – into a single value that we can then use to calculate our standard error.
The combined estimate of variance using the information from each sample is called the pooled variance and is denoted s ; the 2
p
subscript p serves as a reminder indicating that it is the pooled variance. The term “pooled variance” is a literal name because we
are simply pooling or combining the information on variance – the Sum of Squares and Degrees of Freedom – from both of our
samples into a single number. The result is a weighted average of the observed sample variances, the weight for each being
determined by the sample size, and will always fall between the two observed variances. The computational formula for the pooled
variance is:
2 2
(n1 − 1) s + (n2 − 1) s
2 1 2
sp = (10.5.1)
n1 + n2 − 2
This formula can look daunting at first, but it is in fact just a weighted average. Even more conveniently, some simple algebra can
be employed to greatly reduce the complexity of the calculation. The simpler and more appropriate formula to use when calculating
pooled variance is:
S S1 + S S2
2
sp = (10.5.2)
df1 + df2
Using this formula, it’s very simple to see that we are just adding together the same pieces of information we have been calculating
since chapter 3. Thus, when we use this formula, the pooled variance is not nearly as intimidating as it might have originally
seemed.
Once we have our pooled variance calculated, we can drop it into the equation for our standard error:
−−−−−−−−
2 2
Sp Sp
S¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ ¯
¯¯¯¯¯
¯ =√ + (10.5.3)
X1 −X2
n1 n2
Once again, although this formula may seem different than it was before, in reality it is just a different way of writing the same
thing. An alternative but mathematically equivalent way of writing our old standard error is:
−−−
2
s s
s¯¯¯¯¯ = = √ (10.5.4)
X −
√n n
Looking at that, we can now see that, once again, we are simply adding together two pieces of information: no new logic or
interpretation required. Once the standard error is calculated, it goes in the denominator of our test statistic, as shown above and as
was the case in all previous chapters. Thus, the only additional step to calculating an independent samples t-statistic is computing
the pooled variance. Let’s see an example in action.

Campus)

10.6: Movies and Mood
We are interested in whether the type of movie someone sees at the theater affects their mood when they leave. We decide
to ask people about their mood as they leave one of two movies: a comedy (group 1, n = 35) or a horror film (group 2, n =
29). Our data are coded so that higher scores indicate a more positive mood. We have good reason to believe that people
leaving the comedy will be in a better mood, so we use a one-tailed test at α = 0.05 to test our hypothesis.
Step 1: State the Hypotheses As always, we start with hypotheses:
H0 : There is no difference in average mood between the two movie types
H0 : μ1 − μ2 = 0
or
H0 : μ1 = μ2
HA : The comedy film will give a better average mood than the horror film
HA : μ1 − μ2 > 0
or
HA : μ1 > μ2
Notice that in the first formulation of the alternative hypothesis we say that the first mean minus the second mean will be
greater than zero. This is based on how we code the data (higher is better), so we suspect that the mean of the first group
will be higher. Thus, we will have a larger number minus a smaller number, which will be greater than zero. Be sure to pay
attention to which group is which and how your data are coded (higher is almost always used as better outcomes) to make
sure your hypothesis makes sense!
Step 2: Find the Critical Values Just like before, we will need critical values, which come from out t -table. In this
example, we have a one-tailed test at α = 0.05 and expect a positive answer (because we expect the difference between the
means to be greater than zero). Our degrees of freedom for our independent samples t-test is just the degrees of freedom
from each group added together: 35 + 29 – 2 = 62. From our t-table, we find that our critical value is t∗ = 1.671. Note that
because 62 does not appear on the table, we use the next lowest value, which in this case is 60.
Step 3: Compute the Test Statistic The data from our two groups are presented in the tables below. Table 10.6.1 shows the
values for the Comedy group, and Table 10.6.2 shows the values for the Horror group. Values for both have already been
placed in the Sum of Squares tables since we will need to use them for our further calculations. As always, the column on
the left is our raw data.
Table 10.6.1 : Raw scores and Sum of Squares for Group 1
¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯
¯ 2
X (X − X ) (X − X )
Group 1: Comedy Film

39.10 15.10 228.01
38.00 14.00 196.00
14.90 -9.10 82.81
20.70 -3.30 10.89
19.50 -4.50 20.25
32.20 8.20 67.24
11.00 -13.00 169.00
20.70 -3.30 10.89
26.40 2.40 5.76
35.70 11.70 136.89
26.40 2.40 5.76

¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯
¯ 2
X (X − X ) (X − X )
28.80 4.80 23.04

33.40 9.40 88.36
13.70 -10.30 106.09
46.10 22.10 488.41
13.70 -10.30 106.09
23.00 -1.00 1.00
20.70 -3.30 10.89
19.50 -4.50 20.25
11.40 -12.60 158.76
24.10 0.10 0.01
17.20 -6.80 46.24
38.00 14.00 196.00
10.30 -13.70 187.69
35.70 11.70 136.89
41.50 17.50 306.25
18.40 -5.60 31.36
36.80 12.80 163.84
54.10 30.10 906.01
11.40 -12.60 158.76
8.70 -15.30 234.09
23.00 -1.00 1.00
14.30 -9.70 94.09
5.30 -18.70 349.69
6.30 -17.70 313.29
Σ = 840 Σ = 0 Σ = 5061.60
Table 10.6.2: Raw scores and Sum of Squares for Group 2

¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯
¯ 2
X (X − X ) (X − X )
Group 2: Horror Film
24.00 7.50 56.25
17.00 0.50 0.25
35.80 19.30 372.49
18.00 1.50 2.25
-1.70 -18.20 331.24
11.10 -5.40 29.16
10.10 -6.40 40.96
16.10 -0.40 0.16
-0.70 -17.20 295.84

¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯
¯ 2
X (X − X ) (X − X )
14.10 -2.40 5.76
25.90 9.40 88.36
23.00 6.50 42.25
20.00 3.50 12.25
14.10 -2.40 5.76
-1.70 -18.20 331.24
19.00 2.50 6.25
20.00 3.50 12.25
30.90 14.40 207.36
30.90 14.40 207.36
22.00 5.50 30.25
6.20 -10.30 106.09
27.90 11.40 129.96
14.10 -2.40 5.76
33.80 17.30 299.29
26.90 10.40 108.16
5.20 -11.30 127.69
13.10 -3.40 11.56
19.00 2.50 6.25
-15.50 -32.00 1024.00
Σ = 478.6 Σ = 0.10 Σ = 3896.45
Using the sum of the first column for each table, we can calculate the mean for each group:
¯¯¯¯¯
¯ 840
X1 = = 24.00
35
And
¯¯¯¯¯
¯
478.60
X2 = = 16.50
29
These values were used to calculate the middle rows of each table, which sum to zero as they should (the middle column
for group 2 sums to a very small value instead of zero due to rounding error – the exact mean is 16.50344827586207, but
that’s far more than we need for our purposes). Squaring each of the deviation scores in the middle columns gives us the
values in the third columns, which sum to our next important value: the Sum of Squares for each group: SS = 5061.60
1
and SS = 3896.45. These values have all been calculated and take on the same interpretation as they have since chapter 3
2
– no new computations yet. Before we move on to the pooled variance that will allow us to calculate standard error, let’s
compute our standard deviation for each group; even though we will not use them in our calculation of the test statistic,
they are still important descriptors of our data:

−−−−−−−
5061.60
s1 = √ = 12.20
34
And
−−−−−−−
3896.45
s2 = √ = 11.80
28
Now we can move on to our new calculation, the pooled variance, which is just the Sums of Squares that we calculated
from our table and the degrees of freedom, which is just n– 1 for each group:
S S1 + S S2 5061.60 + 3896.45 8958.05
2
sp = = = = 144.48
df1 + df2 34 + 28 62
As you can see, if you follow the regular process of calculating standard deviation using the Sum of Squares table, finding
the pooled variance is very easy. Now we can use that value to calculate our standard error, the last step before we can find
our test statistic:
−−−−−−−−
2 2 −−−−−−−−−−−−− −
sp sp 144.48 144.48 − −−−− −−−− −−−
−
s¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ ¯
¯¯¯¯¯
¯ =√ + =√ + = √ 4.13 + 4.98 = √9.11 = 3.02
X1 −X2
n1 n2 35 29
Finally, we can use our standard error and the means we calculated earlier to compute our test statistic. Because the null
hypothesis value of μ – μ is 0.00, we will leave that portion out of the equation for simplicity:
1 2
¯¯¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯¯¯
¯
(X1 − X2 ) 24.00 − 16.50
t = = = 2.48
s¯¯¯¯¯ ¯
¯¯¯¯¯
¯ 3.02
X 1 −X2
The process of calculating our obtained test statistic t = 2.48 followed the same sequence of steps as before: use raw data
to compute the mean and sum of squares (this time for two groups instead of one), use the sum of squares and degrees of
freedom to calculate standard error (this time using pooled variance instead of standard deviation), and use that standard
error and the observed means to get t. Now we can move on to the final step of the hypothesis testing procedure.
Step 4: Make the Decision Our test statistic has a value of t = 2.48, and in step 2 we found that the critical value is t∗ =
1.671. 2.48 > 1.671, so we reject the null hypothesis:
Reject H . Based on our sample data from people who watched different kinds of movies, we can say that the average
0
mood after a comedy movie (X = 24.00) is better than the average mood after a horror movie (X = 16.50),
¯¯¯¯¯
1
¯ ¯¯¯¯¯
2
¯
t(62) = 2.48, p < .05.

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10.7: Effect Sizes and Confidence Intervals
We have seen in previous chapters that even a statistically significant effect needs to be interpreted along with an effect
size to see if it is practically meaningful. We have also seen that our sample means, as a point estimate, are not perfect and
would be better represented by a range of values that we call a confidence interval. As with all other topics, this is also true
of our independent samples t -tests.
Our effect size for the independent samples t -test is still Cohen’s d , and it is still just our observed effect divided by the
standard deviation. Remember that standard deviation is just the square root of the variance, and because we work with
pooled variance in our test statistic, we will use the square root of the pooled variance as our denominator in the formula
for Cohen’s d . This gives us:
¯¯¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯¯¯
¯
X1 − X2
d = −
− (10.7.1)
2
√sp
For our example above, we can calculate the effect size to be:
24.00 − 16.50 7.50
d = −−−−− = = 0.62
√144.48 12.02
We interpret this using the same guidelines as before, so we would consider this a moderate or moderately large effect.
Our confidence intervals also take on the same form and interpretation as they have in the past. The value we are interested
in is the difference between the two means, so our point estimate is the value of one mean minus the other, or xbar1 minus
xbar2. Just like before, this is our observed effect and is the same value as the one we place in the numerator of our test
statistic. We calculate this value then place the margin of error – still our critical value times our standard error – above and
below it. That is:
¯¯¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯¯¯
¯ ∗
Confidence Interval = (X1 − X2 ) ± t (s¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ ¯
¯¯¯¯¯
¯ ) (10.7.2)
X1 −X2
Because our hypothesis testing example used a one-tailed test, it would be inappropriate to calculate a confidence interval
on those data (remember that we can only calculate a confidence interval for a two-tailed test because the interval extends
in both directions). Let’s say we find summary statistics on the average life satisfaction of people from two different towns
and want to create a confidence interval to see if the difference between the two might actually be zero.
Our sample data are X = 28.65 s = 12.40 n = 40 and X = 25.40s = 15.68n = 42. At face value, it looks like
¯¯¯¯¯
1
¯
1 1
¯¯¯¯¯
¯
2 2 2
the people from the first town have higher life satisfaction (28.65 vs. 25.40), but it will take a confidence interval (or
complete hypothesis testing process) to see if that is true or just due to random chance. First, we want to calculate the
difference between our sample means, which is 28.65 – 25.40 = 3.25. Next, we need a critical value from our t -table. If we
want to test at the normal 95% level of confidence, then our sample sizes will yield degrees of freedom equal to 40 + 42 –
2 = 80. From our table, that gives us a critical value of t∗ = 1.990. Finally, we need our standard error. Recall that our
standard error for an independent samples t -test uses pooled variance, which requires the Sum of Squares and degrees of
freedom. Up to this point, we have calculated the Sum of Squares using raw data, but in this situation, we do not have
access to it. So, what are we to do?
If we have summary data like standard deviation and sample size, it is very easy to calculate the pooled variance, and the
key lies in rearranging the formulas to work backwards through them. We need the Sum of Squares and degrees of
freedom to calculate our pooled variance. Degrees of freedom is very simple: we just take the sample size minus 1.00 for
each group. Getting the Sum of Squares is also easy: remember that variance is standard deviation squared and is the Sum
of Squares divided by the degrees of freedom. That is:
2 2
SS
s = (s) = (10.7.3)
df
To get the Sum of Squares, we just multiply both sides of the above equation to get:
2
s ∗ df = SS (10.7.4)

Which is the squared standard deviation multiplied by the degrees of freedom (n − 1 ) equals the Sum of Squares.
Using our example data:
2
(s1 ) ∗ df1 = S S1
2
(12.40 ) ∗ (40 − 1) = 5996.64
2
(s2 ) ∗ df2 = S S2
2
(15.68 ) ∗ (42 − 1) = 10080.36
And thus our pooled variance equals:

S S1 + S S2 5996.64 + 10080.36 16077
2
sp = = = = 200.96
df1 + df2 39 + 41 80
And our standard error equals:

−−−−−−−−
2 2 −−−−−−−−−−−−− −
sp sp 200.96 200.96 − −−−− −−−− −−−
−
sx̄1 −x̄2 = √ + =√ + = √ 5.02 + 4.78 = √9.89 = 3.14
n1 n2 40 42
All of these steps are just slightly different ways of using the same formulae, numbers, and ideas we have worked with up
to this point. Once we get out standard error, it’s time to build our confidence interval.
95%C I = 3.25 ± 1.990(3.14)
Upper Bound = 3.25 + 1.990(3.14)
U B = 3.25 + 6.25
U B = 9.50
Lower Bound = 3.25 − 1.990(3.14)
LB = 3.25 − 6.25
LB = −3.00
95%C I = (−3.00, 9.50)
Our confidence interval, as always, represents a range of values that would be considered reasonable or plausible based on
our observed data. In this instance, our interval (-3.00, 9.50) does contain zero. Thus, even though the means look a little
bit different, it may very well be the case that the life satisfaction in both of these towns is the same. Proving otherwise
would require more data.

Downtown Campus)

10.8: Homogeneity of Variance
Before wrapping up the coverage of independent samples t-tests, there is one other important topic to cover. Using the
pooled variance to calculate the test statistic relies on an assumption known as homogeneity of variance. In statistics, an
assumption is some characteristic that we assume is true about our data, and our ability to use our inferential statistics
accurately and correctly relies on these assumptions being true. If these assumptions are not true, then our analyses are at
best ineffective (e.g. low power to detect effects) and at worst inappropriate (e.g. too many Type I errors). A detailed
coverage of assumptions is beyond the scope of this course, but it is important to know that they exist for all analyses.
For the current analysis, one important assumption is homogeneity of variance. This is fancy statistical talk for the idea
that the true population variance for each group is the same and any difference in the observed sample variances is due to
random chance (if this sounds eerily similar to the idea of testing the null hypothesis that the true population means are
equal, that’s because it is exactly the same!) This notion allows us to compute a single pooled variance that uses our easily
calculated degrees of freedom. If the assumption is shown to not be true, then we have to use a very complicated formula
to estimate the proper degrees of freedom. There are formal tests to assess whether or not this assumption is met, but we
will not discuss them here.
Many statistical programs incorporate the test of homogeneity of variance automatically and can report the results of the
analysis assuming it is true or assuming it has been violated. You can easily tell which is which by the degrees of freedom:
the corrected degrees of freedom (which is used when the assumption of homogeneity of variance is violated) will have
decimal places. Fortunately, the independent samples t -test is very robust to violations of this assumption (an analysis is
“robust” if it works well even when its assumptions are not met), which is why we do not bother going through the tedious
work of testing and estimating new degrees of freedom by hand.

Downtown Campus)

10.E: Independent Samples (Exercises)
1. What is meant by “the difference of the means” when talking about an independent samples t -test? How does it differ
from the “mean of the differences” in a repeated measures t -test?
Answer:
The difference of the means is one mean, calculated from a set of scores, compared to another mean which is calculated
from a different set of scores; the independent samples t-test looks for whether the two separate values are different
from one another. This is different than the “mean of the differences” because the latter is a single mean computed on a
single set of difference scores that come from one data collection of matched pairs. So, the difference of the means
deals with two numbers but the mean of the differences is only one number.
2. Describe three research questions that could be tested using an independent samples t -test.
3. Calculate pooled variance from the following raw data:
Group 1 Group 2
16 4
11 10
9 15
7 13
5 12
4 9
12 8
Answer:
2
SS 1 = 106.86, SS 2 = 78.86, sp = 15.48
4. Calculate the standard error from the following descriptive statistics

a. s = 24, s = 21, n = 36, n = 49
1 2 1 2
b. s = 15.40, s = 14.80, n = 20, n = 23

1 2 1 2
c. s = 12, s = 10, n = 25, n = 25

1 2 1 2
5. Determine whether to reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis in the following situations:
a. t(40) = 2.49, α = 0.01, one-tailed test to the right
¯¯¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯¯¯
¯
b. X = 64, X = 54, n = 14, n = 12, s
1 2 1 2 = 9.75, α = 0.05 , two-tailed test
¯
¯¯¯¯¯
¯
X1 −X2
¯
¯¯¯¯¯
¯
c. 95% Confidence Interval: (0.50, 2.10)
Answer:
a. Reject
b. Fail to Reject
c. Reject
6. A professor is interest in whether or not the type of software program used in a statistics lab affects how well students
learn the material. The professor teaches the same lecture material to two classes but has one class use a point-and-click
software program in lab and has the other class use a basic programming language. The professor tests for a difference
between the two classes on their final exam scores.
Point-and-Click Programming
83 86
83 79
63 100

Point-and-Click Programming
77 74
86 70
84 67
78 83
61 85
65 74
75 86
100 87
60 61
90 76
66 100
54
7. A researcher wants to know if there is a difference in how busy someone is based on whether that person identifies as
an early bird or a night owl. The researcher gathers data from people in each group, coding the data so that higher
scores represent higher levels of being busy, and tests for a difference between the two at the .05 level of significance.
Early Bird Night Owl
23 26
28 10
27 20
33 19
26 26
30 18
22 12
25 25
26
Answer:
Step 1: H0 : μ1 – μ2 = 0 “There is not difference in the average business of early birds versus night owls”,
HA : μ1 – μ2 ≠ 0 “There is a difference in the average business of early birds versus night owls.”
¯¯¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯¯¯
¯
Step 3: X 1
2
= 26.67, X2 = 19.50, sp = 27.73, sX1 − X2 = 2.37
Step 4: t > t∗ , Reject H . Based on our data of early birds and night owls, we can conclude that early birds are busier (
0
¯¯¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯¯¯
¯
X1 = 26.67 ) than night owls (X = 19.50), t(15) = 3.03,
2 p < .05 . Since the result is significant, we need an effect
size: Cohen’s d = 1.47, which is a large effect.
8. Lots of people claim that having a pet helps lower their stress level. Use the following summary data to test the claim
that there is a lower average stress level among pet owners (group 1) than among non-owners (group 2) at the .05 level
of significance.
¯¯¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯¯¯
¯
X1 = 16.25, X2 = 20.95, s1 = 4.00, s2 = 5.10, n1 = 29, n2 = 25
9. Administrators at a university want to know if students in different majors are more or less extroverted than others.
They provide you with descriptive statistics they have for English majors (coded as 1) and History majors (coded as 2)

and ask you to create a confidence interval of the difference between them. Does this confidence interval suggest that
the students from the majors differ?
¯¯¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯¯¯
¯
X1 = 3.78, X2 = 2.23, s1 = 2.60, s2 = 1.15, n1 = 45, n2 = 40
Answer:
¯¯¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯¯¯
¯
X1 − X2 = 1.55, t
∗
= 1.990, s¯¯¯¯¯¯ ¯ , CI = (0.66, 2.44). This confidence interval does not contain zero, so it
¯¯¯¯
X1 −X2
¯ = 0.45
does suggest that there is a difference between the extroversion of English majors and History majors.
10. Researchers want to know if people’s awareness of environmental issues varies as a function of where they live. The
researchers have the following summary data from two states, Alaska and Hawaii, that they want to use to test for a
difference.
¯¯¯¯¯¯
¯ ¯
¯¯¯¯¯
¯
XH = 47.50, XA = 45.70, sH = 14.65, sA = 13.20, nH = 139, nA = 150

Downtown Campus)

CHAPTER OVERVIEW
11: ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE
Analysis of variance, often abbreviated to ANOVA for short, serves the same purpose as the t -tests we learned in unit 2: it tests for
differences in group means. ANOVA is more flexible in that it can handle any number of groups, unlike t -tests which are limited to two
groups (independent samples) or two time points (dependent samples). Thus, the purpose and interpretation of ANOVA will be the same as it
was for t -tests, as will the hypothesis testing procedure. However, ANOVA will, a
11.1: OBSERVING AND INTERPRETING VARIABILITY

11.2: SOURCES OF VARIANCE
11.3: ANOVA TABLE
All of our sources of variability fit together in meaningful, interpretable ways as we saw above, and the easiest way to do this is to organize
them into a table. The ANOVA table is how we calculate our test statistic.
11.4: ANOVA AND TYPE I ERROR

You may be wondering why we do not just use another t -test to test our hypotheses about three or more groups the way we did in Unit 2.
After all, we are still just looking at group mean differences. The reason is that our t -statistic formula can only handle up to two groups,
one minus the other. With only two groups, we can move our population parameters for the group means around in our null hypothesis and
still get the same interpretation.
11.5: HYPOTHESES IN ANOVA

11.6: SCORES ON JOB APPLICATION TESTS
11.7: VARIANCE EXPLAINED
11.8: POST HOC TESTS
A post hoc test is used only after we find a statistically significant result and need to determine where our differences truly came from. The
term “post hoc” comes from the Latin for “after the event”. There are many different post hoc tests that have been developed, and most of
them will give us similar answers. We will only focus here on the most commonly used ones. We will also only discuss the concepts
behind each and will not worry about calculations.
11.9: OTHER ANOVA DESIGNS

11.1E: ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE (EXERCISES)
1 2/18/2022
11.1: Observing and Interpreting Variability
We have seen time and again that scores, be they individual data or group means, will differ naturally. Sometimes this is
due to random chance, and other times it is due to actual differences. Our job as scientists, researchers, and data analysts is
to determine if the observed differences are systematic and meaningful (via a hypothesis test) and, if so, what is causing
those differences. Through this, it becomes clear that, although we are usually interested in the mean or average score, it is
the variability in the scores that is key.
Take a look at Figure 11.1.1, which shows scores for many people on a test of skill used as part of a job application. The
x-axis has each individual person, in no particular order, and the y -axis contains the score each person received on the test.
As we can see, the job applicants differed quite a bit in their performance, and understanding why that is the case would be
extremely useful information. However, there’s no interpretable pattern in the data, especially because we only have
information on the test, not on any other variable (remember that the x-axis here only shows individual people and is not
ordered or interpretable).
Figure 11.1.1 : Scores on a job test

Our goal is to explain this variability that we are seeing in the dataset. Let’s assume that as part of the job application
procedure we also collected data on the highest degree each applicant earned. With knowledge of what the job requires, we
could sort our applicants into three groups: those applicants who have a college degree related to the job, those applicants
who have a college degree that is not related to the job, and those applicants who did not earn a college degree. This is a
common way that job applicants are sorted, and we can use ANOVA to test if these groups are actually different. Figure
11.1.2 presents the same job applicant scores, but now they are color coded by group membership (i.e. which group they
belong in). Now that we can differentiate between applicants this way, a pattern starts to emerge: those applicants with a
relevant degree (coded red) tend to be near the top, those applicants with no college degree (coded black) tend to be near
the bottom, and the applicants with an unrelated degree (coded green) tend to fall into the middle. However, even within
these groups, there is still some variability, as shown in Figure 11.1.2.
Figure 11.1.2 : Applicant scores coded by degree earned

This pattern is even easier to see when the applicants are sorted and organized into their respective groups, as shown in
Figure 11.1.3.
Figure 11.1.3 : Applicant scores by group

Now that we have our data visualized into an easily interpretable format, we can clearly see that our applicants’ scores
differ largely along group lines. Those applicants who do not have a college degree received the lowest scores, those who
had a degree relevant to the job received the highest scores, and those who did have a degree but one that is not related to
the job tended to fall somewhere in the middle. Thus, we have systematic variance between our groups.
We can also clearly see that within each group, our applicants’ scores differed from one another. Those applicants without
a degree tended to score very similarly, since the scores are clustered close together. Our group of applicants with relevant
degrees varied a little but more than that, and our group of applicants with unrelated degrees varied quite a bit. It may be
that there are other factors that cause the observed score differences within each group, or they could just be due to random
chance. Because we do not have any other explanatory data in our dataset, the variability we observe within our groups is
considered random error, with any deviations between a person and that person’s group mean caused only by chance.
Thus, we have unsystematic (random) variance within our groups.
The process and analyses used in ANOVA will take these two sources of variance (systematic variance between groups
and random error within groups, or how much groups differ from each other and how much people differ within each
group) and compare them to one another to determine if the groups have any explanatory value in our outcome variable.
By doing this, we will test for statistically significant differences between the group means, just like we did for t -tests. We
will go step by step to break down the math to see how ANOVA actually works.

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11.2: Sources of Variance
ANOVA is all about looking at the different sources of variance (i.e. the reasons that scores differ from one another) in a
dataset. Fortunately, the way we calculate these sources of variance takes a very familiar form: the Sum of Squares. Before
we get into the calculations themselves, we must first lay out some important terminology and notation.
In ANOVA, we are working with two variables, a grouping or explanatory variable and a continuous outcome variable.
The grouping variable is our predictor (it predicts or explains the values in the outcome variable) or, in experimental terms,
our independent variable, and it made up of k groups, with k being any whole number 2 or greater. That is, ANOVA
requires two or more groups to work, and it is usually conducted with three or more. In ANOVA, we refer to groups as
“levels”, so the number of levels is just the number of groups, which again is k . In the above example, our grouping
variable was education, which had 3 levels, so k = 3. When we report any descriptive value (e.g. mean, sample size,
standard deviation) for a specific group, we will use a subscript 1…k to denote which group it refers to. For example, if we
have three groups and want to report the standard deviation s for each group, we would report them as s , s , and s .
1 2 3
Our second variable is our outcome variable. This is the variable on which people differ, and we are trying to explain or
account for those differences based on group membership. In the example above, our outcome was the score each person
earned on the test. Our outcome variable will still use X for scores as before. When describing the outcome variable using
¯¯¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯¯¯
¯
means, we will use subscripts to refer to specific group means. So if we have k = 3 groups, our means will be X , X , and
1 2
¯¯¯¯¯
¯
X . We will also have a single mean representing the average of all participants across all groups. This is known as the
3
¯¯¯¯¯¯
¯
grand mean, and we use the symbol X . These different means – the individual group means and the overall grand mean –
G
will be how we calculate our sums of squares.

Finally, we now have to differentiate between several different sample sizes. Our data will now have sample sizes for each
group, and we will denote these with a lower case “n ” and a subscript, just like with our other descriptive statistics: n , 1
n , and n . We also have the overall sample size in our dataset, and we will denote this with a capital N . The total sample
2 3
size is just the group sample sizes added together.
Between Groups Sum of Squares

One source of variability we can identified in 11.1.3 of the above example was differences or variability between the
groups. That is, the groups clearly had different average levels. The variability arising from these differences is known as
the between groups variability, and it is quantified using Between Groups Sum of Squares.
Our calculations for sums of squares in ANOVA will take on the same form as it did for regular calculations of variance.
Each observation, in this case the group means, is compared to the overall mean, in this case the grand mean, to calculate a
deviation score. These deviation scores are squared so that they do not cancel each other out and sum to zero. The squared
deviations are then added up, or summed. There is, however, one small difference. Because each group mean represents a
group composed of multiple people, before we sum the deviation scores we must multiple them by the number of people
within that group. Incorporating this, we find our equation for Between Groups Sum of Squares to be:
2
¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯¯¯¯
¯
S SB = ∑ nj (X J − XG ) (11.2.1)
The subscript j refers to the “j ” group where j = 1…k to keep track of which group mean and sample size we are
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working with. As you can see, the only difference between this equation and the familiar sum of squares for variance is
that we are adding in the sample size. Everything else logically fits together in the same way.
Within Groups Sum of Squares

The other source of variability in the figures comes from differences that occur within each group. That is, each individual
deviates a little bit from their respective group mean, just like the group means differed from the grand mean. We therefore
label this source the Within Groups Sum of Squares. Because we are trying to account for variance based on group-level
means, any deviation from the group means indicates an inaccuracy or error. Thus, our within groups variability represents
our error in ANOVA.

The formula for this sum of squares is again going to take on the same form and logic. What we are looking for is the
distance between each individual person and the mean of the group to which they belong. We calculate this deviation
score, square it so that they can be added together, then sum all of them into one overall value:
2
¯¯¯
¯
S SW = ∑ (Xij − X j ) (11.2.2)
In this instance, because we are calculating this deviation score for each individual person, there is no need to multiple by
how many people we have. The subscript j again represents a group and the subscript i refers to a specific person. So, X ij
is read as “the i person of the j group.” It is important to remember that the deviation score for each person is only
th th
calculated relative to their group mean: do not calculate these scores relative to the other group means.
Total Sum of Squares

The Between Groups and Within Groups Sums of Squares represent all variability in our dataset. We also refer to the total
variability as the Total Sum of Squares, representing the overall variability with a single number. The calculation for this
score is exactly the same as it would be if we were calculating the overall variance in the dataset (because that’s what we
are interested in explaining) without worrying about or even knowing about the groups into which our scores fall:
2
¯¯¯¯¯¯
¯
S ST = ∑ (Xi − XG ) (11.2.3)
We can see that our Total Sum of Squares is just each individual score minus the grand mean. As with our Within Groups
Sum of Squares, we are calculating a deviation score for each individual person, so we do not need to multiply anything by
the sample size; that is only done for Between Groups Sum of Squares.
An important feature of the sums of squares in ANOVA is that they all fit together. We could work through the algebra to
demonstrate that if we added together the formulas for SS and SS , we would end up with the formula for SS . That
B W T
is:
S ST = S SB + S SW (11.2.4)
This will prove to be very convenient, because if we know the values of any two of our sums of squares, it is very quick
and easy to find the value of the third. It is also a good way to check calculations: if you calculate each SS by hand, you
can make sure that they all fit together as shown above, and if not, you know that you made a math mistake somewhere.
We can see from the above formulas that calculating an ANOVA by hand from raw data can take a very, very long time.
For this reason, you will not be required to calculate the SS values by hand, but you should still take the time to understand
how they fit together and what each one represents to ensure you understand the analysis itself.

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11.3: ANOVA Table
All of our sources of variability fit together in meaningful, interpretable ways as we saw above, and the easiest way to do
this is to organize them into a table. The ANOVA table, shown in Table 11.3.1, is how we calculate our test statistic.
Table 11.3.1 : ANOVA Table
Source SS df MS F
SSB M SB
Between SSB k−1
dfB M SW
SSW
Within SSW N −k
dfW
Total SST N −1
The first column of the ANOVA table, labeled “Source”, indicates which of our sources of variability we are using:
between groups, within groups, or total. The second column, labeled “SS”, contains our values for the sums of squares that
we learned to calculate above. As noted previously, calculating these by hand takes too long, and so the formulas are not
presented in Table 11.3.1. However, remember that the Total is the sum of the other two, in case you are only given two
SS values and need to calculate the third.
The next column, labeled “df ”, is our degrees of freedom. As with the sums of squares, there is a different df for each
group, and the formulas are presented in the table. Notice that the total degrees of freedom, N – 1, is the same as it was for
our regular variance. This matches the SS formulation to again indicate that we are simply taking our familiar variance
T
term and breaking it up into difference sources. Also remember that the capital N in the df calculations refers to the
overall sample size, not a specific group sample size. Notice that the total row for degrees of freedom, just like for sums of
squares, is just the Between and Within rows added together. If you take N – k + k– 1 , then the “– k” and “+k ” portions
will cancel out, and you are left with N – 1. This is a convenient way to quickly check your calculations.
The third column, labeled “M S ”, is our Mean Squares for each source of variance. A “mean square” is just another way to
say variability. Each mean square is calculated by dividing the sum of squares by its corresponding degrees of freedom.
Notice that we do this for the Between row and the Within row, but not for the Total row. There are two reasons for this.
First, our Total Mean Square would just be the variance in the full dataset (put together the formulas to see this for
yourself), so it would not be new information. Second, the Mean Square values for Between and Within would not add up
to equal the Mean Square Total because they are divided by different denominators. This is in contrast to the first two
columns, where the Total row was both the conceptual total (i.e. the overall variance and degrees of freedom) and the
literal total of the other two rows.
The final column in the ANOVA table, labeled “F ”, is our test statistic for ANOVA. The F statistic, just like a t - or z -
statistic, is compared to a critical value to see whether we can reject for fail to reject a null hypothesis. Thus, although the
calculations look different for ANOVA, we are still doing the same thing that we did in all of Unit 2. We are simply using a
new type of data to test our hypotheses. We will see what these hypotheses look like shortly, but first, we must take a
moment to address why we are doing our calculations this way.

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11.4: ANOVA and Type I Error
You may be wondering why we do not just use another t -test to test our hypotheses about three or more groups the way we
did in Unit 2. After all, we are still just looking at group mean differences. The reason is that our t -statistic formula can
only handle up to two groups, one minus the other. With only two groups, we can move our population parameters for the
group means around in our null hypothesis and still get the same interpretation: the means are equal, which can also be
concluded if one mean minus the other mean is equal to zero. However, if we tried adding a third mean, we would no
longer be able to do this. So, in order to use t -tests to compare three or more means, we would have to run a series of
individual group comparisons.
For only three groups, we would have three t -tests: group 1 vs group 2, group 1 vs group 3, and group 2 vs group 3. This
may not sound like a lot, especially with the advances in technology that have made running an analysis very fast, but it
quickly scales up. With just one additional group, bringing our total to four, we would have six comparisons: group 1 vs
group 2, group 1 vs group 3, group 1 vs group 4, group 2 vs group 3, group 2 vs group 4, and group 3 vs group 4. This
makes for a logistical and computation nightmare for five or more groups.
A bigger issue, however, is our probability of committing a Type I Error. Remember that a Type I error is a false positive,
and the chance of committing a Type I error is equal to our significance level, α . This is true if we are only running a
single analysis (such as a t -test with only two groups) on a single dataset. However, when we start running multiple
analyses on the same dataset, our Type I error rate increases, raising the probability that we are capitalizing on random
chance and rejecting a null hypothesis when we should not. ANOVA, by comparing all groups simultaneously with a
single analysis, averts this issue and keeps our error rate at the α we set.

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11.5: Hypotheses in ANOVA
So far we have seen what ANOVA is used for, why we use it, and how we use it. Now we can turn to the formal
hypotheses we will be testing. As with before, we have a null and an alternative hypothesis to lay out. Our null hypothesis
is still the idea of “no difference” in our data. Because we have multiple group means, we simply list them out as equal to
each other:
H0 : There is no difference in the group means
H0 : μ1 = μ2 = μ3
We list as many μ parameters as groups we have. In the example above, we have three groups to test, so we have three
parameters in our null hypothesis. If we had more groups, say, four, we would simply add another μ to the list and give it
the appropriate subscript, giving us:
H0 : There is no difference in the group means
H0 : μ1 = μ2 = μ3 = μ4
Notice that we do not say that the means are all equal to zero, we only say that they are equal to one another; it does not
matter what the actual value is, so long as it holds for all groups equally.
Our alternative hypothesis for ANOVA is a little bit different. Let’s take a look at it and then dive deeper into what it
means:
HA : At least one mean is different
The first difference in obvious: there is no mathematical statement of the alternative hypothesis in ANOVA. This is due to
the second difference: we are not saying which group is going to be different, only that at least one will be. Because we do
not hypothesize about which mean will be different, there is no way to write it mathematically. Related to this, we do not
have directional hypotheses (greater than or less than) like we did in Unit 2. Due to this, our alternative hypothesis is
always exactly the same: at least one mean is different.
In Unit 2, we saw that, if we reject the null hypothesis, we can adopt the alternative, and this made it easy to understand
what the differences looked like. In ANOVA, we will still adopt the alternative hypothesis as the best explanation of our
data if we reject the null hypothesis. However, when we look at the alternative hypothesis, we can see that it does not give
us much information. We will know that a difference exists somewhere, but we will not know where that difference is. Is
only group 1 different but groups 2 and 3 the same? Is it only group 2? Are all three of them different? Based on just our
alternative hypothesis, there is no way to be sure. We will come back to this issue later and see how to find out specific
differences. For now, just remember that we are testing for any difference in group means, and it does not matter where
that difference occurs.
Now that we have our hypotheses for ANOVA, let’s work through an example. We will continue to use the data from
Figures 11.1.1 through 11.1.3 for continuity.

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11.6: Scores on Job Application Tests
Our data come from three groups of 10 people each, all of whom applied for a single job opening: those with no college
degree, those with a college degree that is not related to the job opening, and those with a college degree from a relevant
field. We want to know if we can use this group membership to account for our observed variability and, by doing so, test
if there is a difference between our three group means. We will start, as always, with our hypotheses.
Step 1: State the Hypotheses

Our hypotheses are concerned with the means of groups based on education level, so:
H0 : There is no difference between the means of the education groups
H0 : μ1 = μ2 = μ3
HA : At least one mean is different
Again, we phrase our null hypothesis in terms of what we are actually looking for, and we use a number of population
parameters equal to our number of groups. Our alternative hypothesis is always exactly the same.
Step 2: Find the Critical Values

Our test statistic for ANOVA, as we saw above, is F . Because we are using a new test statistic, we will get a new table: the
F distribution table, the top of which is shown in Figure 11.6.1:
Figure 11.6.1 : F distribution table.

The F table only displays critical values for α = 0.05. This is because other significance levels are uncommon and so it is
not worth it to use up the space to present them. There are now two degrees of freedom we must use to find our critical
value: Numerator and Denominator. These correspond to the numerator and denominator of our test statistic, which, if you
look at the ANOVA table presented earlier, are our Between Groups and Within Groups rows, respectively. The df is the B
“Degrees of Freedom: Numerator” because it is the degrees of freedom value used to calculate the Mean Square Between,
which in turn was the numerator of our F statistic. Likewise, the df is the “df denom.” (short for denominator) because
W
it is the degrees of freedom value used to calculate the Mean Square Within, which was our denominator for F .
The formula for df is k– 1 , and remember that k is the number of groups we are assessing. In this example, k = 3 so our
B
dfB = 2. This tells us that we will use the second column, the one labeled 2, to find our critical value. To find the proper
row, we simply calculate the df , which was N – k . The original prompt told us that we have “three groups of 10 people
W

each,” so our total sample size is 30. This makes our value for df = 27. If we follow the second column down to the row
W
for 27, we find that our critical value is 3.35. We use this critical value the same way as we did before: it is our criterion
against which we will compare our obtained test statistic to determine statistical significance.
Step 3: Calculate the Test Statistic

Now that we have our hypotheses and the criterion we will use to test them, we can calculate our test statistic. To do this,
we will fill in the ANOVA table. When we do so, we will work our way from left to right, filling in each cell to get our
final answer. We will assume that we are given the SS values as shown below:
Source SS df MS F
Between 8246
Within 3020
Total
These may seem like random numbers, but remember that they are based on the distances between the groups themselves
and within each group. Figure 11.6.2 shows the plot of the data with the group means and grand mean included. If we
wanted to, we could use this information, combined with our earlier information that each group has 10 people, to
calculate the Between Groups Sum of Squares by hand. However, doing so would take some time, and without the specific
values of the data points, we would not be able to calculate our Within Groups Sum of Squares, so we will trust that these
values are the correct ones.
Figure 11.6.2 : Means

We were given the sums of squares values for our first two rows, so we can use those to calculate the Total Sum of
Squares.
Table 11.6.2 : Total Sum of Squares
Source SS df MS F
Between 8246
Within 3020
Total 11266
We also calculated our degrees of freedom earlier, so we can fill in those values. Additionally, we know that the total
degrees of freedom is N – 1, which is 29. This value of 29 is also the sum of the other two degrees of freedom, so
everything checks out.
Table 11.6.3: Total Sum of Squares
Source SS df MS F
Between 8246 2
Within 3020 27

Total
Source 11266
SS 29
df MS F
Now weBetween
have everything we need 8246 2
to calculate our mean squares. Our M S values for each row are just the SS divided by
the df forWithin
that row, giving us: 3020 27
Source
Total 11266
SS 29
df MS F
Between 8246 2 4123
Within 3020 27 111.85
Total 11266 29
Remember that we do not calculate a Total Mean Square, so we leave that cell blank. Finally, we have the information we
need to calculate our test statistic. F is our M S divided by M S .
B W

Source SS df MS F
Between 8246 2 4123 36.86
Within 3020 27 111.85
Total 11266 29
So, working our way through the table given only two SS values and the sample size and group size given before, we
calculate our test statistic to be F = 36.86, which we will compare to the critical value in step 4.
obt
Step 4: Make the Decision

Our obtained test statistic was calculated to be F = 36.86 and our critical value was found to be
obt F
∗
. Our
= 3.35
obtained statistic is larger than our critical value, so we can reject the null hypothesis.
Reject H . Based on our 3 groups of 10 people, we can conclude that job test scores are statistically significantly different
0
based on education level, F (2, 27) = 36.86, p < .05.

Notice that when we report F , we include both degrees of freedom. We always report the numerator then the denominator,
separated by a comma. We must also note that, because we were only testing for any difference, we cannot yet conclude
which groups are different from the others. We will do so shortly, but first, because we found a statistically significant
result, we need to calculate an effect size to see how big of an effect we found.

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11.7: Variance Explained
Recall that the purpose of ANOVA is to take observed variability and see if we can explain those differences based on
group membership. To that end, our effect size will be just that: the variance explained. You can think of variance
explained as the proportion or percent of the differences we are able to account for based on our groups. We know that the
overall observed differences are quantified as the Total Sum of Squares, and that our observed effect of group membership
is the Between Groups Sum of Squares. Our effect size, therefore, is the ratio of these to sums of squares. Specifically:
2
SSB
η = (11.7.1)
SST
The effect size η

2
is called “eta-squared” and represents variance explained. For our example, our values give an effect
size of:
8246
2
η = = 0.73
11266
So, we are able to explain 73% of the variance in job test scores based on education. This is, in fact, a huge effect size, and
most of the time we will not explain nearly that much variance. Our guidelines for the size of our effects are:
Table 11.7.1 : Guidelines for the size of our effects
η
2
Size
0.01 Small
0.09 Medium
0.25 Large
So, we found that not only do we have a statistically significant result, but that our observed effect was very large!
However, we still do not know specifically which groups are different from each other. It could be that they are all
different, or that only those who have a relevant degree are different from the others, or that only those who have no degree
are different from the others. To find out which is true, we need to do a special analysis called a post hoc test.

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11.8: Post Hoc Tests
A post hoc test is used only after we find a statistically significant result and need to determine where our differences truly
came from. The term “post hoc” comes from the Latin for “after the event”. There are many different post hoc tests that
have been developed, and most of them will give us similar answers. We will only focus here on the most commonly used
ones. We will also only discuss the concepts behind each and will not worry about calculations.
Bonferroni Test
A Bonferroni test is perhaps the simplest post hoc analysis. A Bonferroni test is a series of t -tests performed on each pair
of groups. As we discussed earlier, the number of groups quickly grows the number of comparisons, which inflates Type I
error rates. To avoid this, a Bonferroni test divides our significance level α by the number of comparisons we are making
so that when they are all run, they sum back up to our original Type I error rate. Once we have our new significance level,
we simply run independent samples t -tests to look for difference between our pairs of groups. This adjustment is
sometimes called a Bonferroni Correction, and it is easy to do by hand if we want to compare obtained p-values to our new
corrected α level, but it is more difficult to do when using critical values like we do for our analyses so we will leave our
discussion of it to that.
Tukey’s Honest Significant Difference

Tukey’s Honest Significant Difference (HSD) is a very popular post hoc analysis. This analysis, like Bonferroni’s, makes
adjustments based on the number of comparisons, but it makes adjustments to the test statistic when running the
comparisons of two groups. These comparisons give us an estimate of the difference between the groups and a confidence
interval for the estimate. We use this confidence interval in the same way that we use a confidence interval for a regular
independent samples t -test: if it contains 0.00, the groups are not different, but if it does not contain 0.00 then the groups
are different.
Below are the differences between the group means and the Tukey’s HSD confidence intervals for the differences:
Table 11.8.1 : Differences between the group means and the Tukey’s HSD confidence intervals
Comparison Difference Tukey’s HSD CI
None vs Relevant 40.60 (28.87, 52.33)
None vs Unrelated 19.50 (7.77, 31.23)

Relevant vs Unrelated 21.10 (9.37, 32.83)
As we can see, none of these intervals contain 0.00, so we can conclude that all three groups are different from one
another.
Scheffe’s Test
Another common post hoc test is Scheffe’s Test. Like Tukey’s HSD, Scheffe’s test adjusts the test statistic for how many
comparisons are made, but it does so in a slightly different way. The result is a test that is “conservative,” which means
that it is less likely to commit a Type I Error, but this comes at the cost of less power to detect effects. We can see this by
looking at the confidence intervals that Scheffe’s test gives us:
Table 11.8.2: Confidence intervals given by Scheffe’s test
Comparison Difference Tukey’s HSD CI
None vs Relevant 40.60 (28.35, 52.85)
None vs Unrelated 19.50 (7.25, 31.75)
Relevant vs Unrelated 21.10 (8.85, 33.35)
As we can see, these are slightly wider than the intervals we got from Tukey’s HSD. This means that, all other things being
equal, they are more likely to contain zero. In our case, however, the results are the same, and we again conclude that all

three groups differ from one another.
There are many more post hoc tests than just these three, and they all approach the task in different ways, with some being
more conservative and others being more powerful. In general, though, they will give highly similar answers. What is
important here is to be able to interpret a post hoc analysis. If you are given post hoc analysis confidence intervals, like the
ones seen above, read them the same way we read confidence intervals in chapter 10: if they contain zero, there is no
difference; if they do not contain zero, there is a difference.

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11.9: Other ANOVA Designs
We have only just scratched the surface on ANOVA in this chapter. There are many other variations available for the one-way
ANOVA presented here. There are also other types of ANOVAs that you are likely to encounter. The first is called a factorial
ANOVA. Factorial ANOVAs use multiple grouping variables, not just one, to look for group mean differences. Just as there is no
limit to the number of groups in a one-way ANOVA, there is no limit to the number of grouping variables in a Factorial ANOVA,
but it becomes very difficult to find and interpret significant results with many factors, so usually they are limited to two or three
grouping variables with only a small number of groups in each. Another ANOVA is called a Repeated Measures ANOVA. This is
an extension of a repeated measures or matched pairs t -test, but in this case we are measuring each person three or more times to
look for a change. We can even combine both of these advanced ANOVAs into mixed designs to test very specific and valuable
questions. These topics are far beyond the scope of this text, but you should know about their existence. Our treatment of ANOVA
here is a small first step into a much larger world!

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11.1E: Analysis of Variance (Exercises)
1. What are the three pieces of variance analyzed in ANOVA?
Answer:
Variance between groups (SSB), variance within groups (SSW ) and total variance (SST ).
2. What does rejecting the null hypothesis in ANOVA tell us? What does it not tell us?
3. What is the purpose of post hoc tests?
Answer:
Post hoc tests are run if we reject the null hypothesis in ANOVA; they tell us which specific group differences are
significant.
4. Based on the ANOVA table below, do you reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis? What is the effect size?
Source SS df MS F
Between 60.72 3 20.24 3.88
Within 213.61 41 5.21
Total 274.33 44
5. Finish filling out the following ANOVA tables:

a. K = 4
Source SS df MS F
Between 87.40
Within
Total 199.22 33
b. N = 14
Source SS df MS F
Between 2 14.10
Within
Total 64.65
c.
Source SS df MS F
Between 2 42.36
Within 54 2.48
Total
Answer:
a. K = 4
Foster et al. 11.1E.1 1/28/2022 https://stats.libretexts.org/@go/page/7156

Source SS df MS F
Between 87.40 3 29.13 7.81
Within 111.82 30 3.73

Total 199.22 33
b. N = 14
Source SS df MS F
Between 28.20 2 14.10 4.26
Within 36.45 11 3.31

Total 64.65 13
c.
Source SS df MS F
Between 210.10 2 105.05 42.36
Within 133.92 54 2.48

Total 344.02
6. You know that stores tend to charge different prices for similar or identical products, and you want to test whether or
not these differences are, on average, statistically significantly different. You go online and collect data from 3 different
stores, gathering information on 15 products at each store. You find that the average prices at each store are: Store 1
xbar = $27.82, Store 2 xbar = $38.96, and Store 3 xbar = $24.53. Based on the overall variability in the products and
the variability within each store, you find the following values for the Sums of Squares: SST = 683.22, SSW = 441.19.
Complete the ANOVA table and use the 4 step hypothesis testing procedure to see if there are systematic price
differences between the stores.
7. You and your friend are debating which type of candy is the best. You find data on the average rating for hard candy
¯
¯¯¯ ¯
¯¯¯ ¯
¯¯¯
(e.g. jolly ranchers, X = 3.60), chewable candy (e.g. starburst, X = 4.20), and chocolate (e.g. snickers, X = 4.40); each
type of candy was rated by 30 people. Test for differences in average candy rating using SSB = 16.18 and SSW =
28.74.
Answer:
Step 1: H 0 : μ1 = μ2 = μ3 “There is no difference in average rating of candy quality”, HA : “At least one mean is
different.”
Step 2: 3 groups and 90 total observations yields df num =2 and dfden = 87 , α = 0.05, F ∗
= 3.11.
Step 3: based on the given SSB and SSW and the computed df from step 2, is:
Source SS df MS F
Between 16.18 2 8.09 24.52
Within 28.74 87 0.33

Total 44.92 89
Step 4: F > F , reject H . Based on the data in our 3 groups, we can say that there is a statistically significant
∗
0
difference in the quality of different types of candy, F (2, 87) = 24.52, p < .05. Since the result is significant, we need
an effect size: η = 16.18/44.92 = .36, which is a large effect
2
8. Administrators at a university want to know if students in different majors are more or less extroverted than others.
They provide you with data they have for English majors (X = 3.78, n = 45), History majors (X = 2.23, n = 40),
¯
¯¯¯ ¯
¯¯¯

Psychology majors (X = 4.41, n = 51), and Math majors (X = 1.15, n = 28). You find the SSB = 75.80 and
¯
¯¯¯ ¯
¯¯¯
SSW = 47.40 and test at α = 0.05.

¯
¯¯¯ ¯
¯¯¯
9. You are assigned to run a study comparing a new medication (X = 17.47, n = 19), an existing medication (X = 17.94, n
¯
¯¯¯
= 18), and a placebo (X = 13.70, n = 20), with higher scores reflecting better outcomes. Use SSB = 210.10 and
SSW = 133.90 to test for differences.
Answer:
Step 1: H : μ
0 1
= μ2 = μ3 “There is no difference in average outcome based on treatment”, H : “At least one mean
A
is different.”
Step 2: 3 groups and 57 total participants yields df num =2 and df den = 54 , α = 0.05, F ∗
= 3.18 .
Step 3: based on the given SSB and SSW and the computed df from step 2, is:
Source SS df MS F
Between 210.10 2 105.02 42.36
Within 133.90 54 2.48

Total 344.00 56
Step 4: F > F , reject H . Based on the data in our 3 groups, we can say that there is a statistically significant
∗
0
difference in the effectiveness of the treatments, F (2, 54) = 42.36, p < .05. Since the result is significant, we need an
effect size: η = 210.10/344.00 = .61
2
, which is a large effect.
¯
¯¯¯
10. You are in charge of assessing different training methods for effectiveness. You have data on 4 methods: Method 1 (X
¯
¯¯¯ ¯
¯¯¯ ¯
¯¯¯
= 87, n = 12), Method 2 (X = 92, n = 14), Method 3 (X = 88, n = 15), and Method 4 (X = 75, n = 11). Test for
differences among these means, assuming SSB = 64.81 and SST = 399.45.

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CHAPTER OVERVIEW
12: CORRELATIONS
All of our analyses thus far have focused on comparing the value of a continuous variable across different groups via mean differences. We
will now turn away from means and look instead at how to assess the relation between two continuous variables in the form of correlations.
As we will see, the logic behind correlations is the same as it was group means, but we will now have the ability to assess an entirely new
data structure.
12.1: VARIABILITY AND COVARIANCE

Because we have two continuous variables, we will have two characteristics or score on which people will vary. What we want to know is
do people vary on the scores together. That is, as one score changes, does the other score also change in a predictable or consistent way?
This notion of variables differing together is called covariance (the prefix “co” meaning “together”).
12.2: VISUALIZING RELATIONS

Visualizing data remains an important first step in understanding and describing out data before we move into inferential statistics.
Nowhere is this more important than in correlation. Correlations are visualized by a scatterplot, where our X variable values are plotted on
the X -axis, the Y variable values are plotted on the Y -axis, and each point or marker in the plot represents a single person’s score on X
and Y.
12.3: THREE CHARACTERISTICS

When we talk about correlations, there are three traits that we need to know in order to truly understand the relation (or lack of relation)
between X and Y : form, direction, and magnitude. We will discuss each of them in turn.
12.4: PEARSON’S R
There are several different types of correlation coefficients, but we will only focus on the most common: Pearson’s r. r is a very popular
correlation coefficient for assessing linear relations, and it serves as both a descriptive statistic and as a test statistic. It is descriptive
because it describes what is happening in the scatterplot; r will have both a sign (+/–) for the direction and a number (0 – 1 in absolute
value) for the magnitude.
12.5: ANXIETY AND DEPRESSION

Anxiety and depression are often reported to be highly linked (or “comorbid”). Our hypothesis testing procedure follows the same four-
step process as before, starting with our null and alternative hypotheses. We will look for a positive relation between our variables among a
group of 10 people because that is what we would expect based on them being comorbid.
12.6: EFFECT SIZE

12.7: CORRELATION VERSUS CAUSATION
12.8: FINAL CONSIDERATIONS
12.E: CORRELATIONS (EXERCISES)
1 2/18/2022
12.1: Variability and Covariance
Because we have two continuous variables, we will have two characteristics or score on which people will vary. What we
want to know is do people vary on the scores together. That is, as one score changes, does the other score also change in a
predictable or consistent way? This notion of variables differing together is called covariance (the prefix “co” meaning
“together”).
Let’s look at our formula for variance on a single variable:
¯¯¯
¯ 2
∑(X − X )
2
s = (12.1.1)
N −1
¯¯¯
¯
We use X to represent a person’s score on the variable at hand, and X to represent the mean of that variable. The
numerator of this formula is the Sum of Squares, which we have seen several times for various uses. Recall that squaring a
value is just multiplying that value by itself. Thus, we can write the same equation as:
¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯
¯
∑((X − X )(X − X ))
2
s = (12.1.2)
N −1
This is the same formula and works the same way as before, where we multiply the deviation score by itself (we square it)
and then sum across squared deviations.
Now, let’s look at the formula for covariance. In this formula, we will still use X to represent the score on one variable,
and we will now use Y to represent the score on the second variable. We will still use bars to represent averages of the
scores. The formula for covariance (cov XYwith the subscript XY to indicate covariance across the X and Y variables) is:
¯¯¯
¯ ¯
¯¯¯
∑((X − X )(Y − Y ))
covXY = (12.1.3)
N −1
As we can see, this is the exact same structure as the previous formula. Now, instead of multiplying the deviation score by
itself on one variable, we take the deviation scores from a single person on each variable and multiply them together. We
do this for each person (exactly the same as we did for variance) and then sum them to get our numerator. The numerator
in this is called the Sum of Products.
¯¯¯
¯ ¯
¯¯¯
SP = ∑((X − X )(Y − Y )) (12.1.4)
We will calculate the sum of products using the same table we used to calculate the sum of squares. In fact, the table for
sum of products is simply a sum of squares table for X, plus a sum of squares table for Y , with a final column of products,
as shown below.
Table 12.1.1 : Sum of Products table
¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯
¯ 2 ¯
¯¯¯ ¯
¯¯¯ 2 ¯¯¯
¯ ¯
¯¯¯
X (X − X ) (X − X ) Y (Y − Y ) (Y − Y ) (X − X )(Y − Y )
This table works the same way that it did before (remember that the column headers tell you exactly what to do in that
column). We list our raw data for the X and Y variables in the X and Y columns, respectively, then add them up so we
can calculate the mean of each variable. We then take those means and subtract them from the appropriate raw score to get
our deviation scores for each person on each variable, and the columns of deviation scores will both add up to zero. We
will square our deviation scores for each variable to get the sum of squares for X and Y so that we can compute the
variance and standard deviation of each (we will use the standard deviation in our equation below). Finally, we take the
deviation score from each variable and multiply them together to get our product score. Summing this column will give us
our sum of products. It is very important that you multiply the raw deviation scores from each variable, NOT the squared
deviation scores.
Our sum of products will go into the numerator of our formula for covariance, and then we only have to divide by N – 1 to
get our covariance. Unlike the sum of squares, both our sum of products and our covariance can be positive, negative, or
zero, and they will always match (e.g. if our sum of products is positive, our covariance will always be positive). A

positive sum of products and covariance indicates that the two variables are related and move in the same direction. That
is, as one variable goes up, the other will also go up, and vice versa. A negative sum of products and covariance means that
the variables are related but move in opposite directions when they change, which is called an inverse relation. In an
inverse relation, as one variable goes up, the other variable goes down. If the sum of products and covariance are zero, then
that means that the variables are not related. As one variable goes up or down, the other variable does not change in a
consistent or predictable way.
The previous paragraph brings us to an important definition about relations between variables. What we are looking for in
a relation is a consistent or predictable pattern. That is, the variables change together, either in the same direction or
opposite directions, in the same way each time. It doesn’t matter if this relation is positive or negative, only that it is not
zero. If there is no consistency in how the variables change within a person, then the relation is zero and does not exist. We
will revisit this notion of direction vs zero relation later on.

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12.2: Visualizing Relations
Chapter 2 covered many different forms of data visualization, and visualizing data remains an important first step in
understanding and describing out data before we move into inferential statistics. Nowhere is this more important than in
correlation. Correlations are visualized by a scatterplot, where our X variable values are plotted on the X-axis, the Y
variable values are plotted on the Y -axis, and each point or marker in the plot represents a single person’s score on X and
Y . Figure 12.2.1 shows a scatterplot for hypothetical scores on job satisfaction (X) and worker well-being (Y ). We can
see from the axes that each of these variables is measured on a 10-point scale, with 10 being the highest on both variables
(high satisfaction and good health and well-being) and 1 being the lowest (dissatisfaction and poor health). When we look
at this plot, we can see that the variables do seem to be related. The higher scores on job satisfaction tend to also be the
higher scores on well-being, and the same is true of the lower scores.
Figure 12.2.1 : Plotting satisfaction and well-being scores.

Figure 12.2.1 demonstrates a positive relation. As scores on X increase, scores on Y also tend to increase. Although this is
not a perfect relation (if it were, the points would form a single straight line), it is nonetheless very clearly positive. This is
one of the key benefits to scatterplots: they make it very easy to see the direction of the relation. As another example,
Figure 12.2.2 shows a negative relation between job satisfaction (X) and burnout (Y ). As we can see from this plot, higher
scores on job satisfaction tend to correspond to lower scores on burnout, which is how stressed, un-energetic, and unhappy
someone is at their job. As with Figure 12.2.1, this is not a perfect relation, but it is still a clear one. As these figures show,
points in a positive relation moves from the bottom left of the plot to the top right, and points in a negative relation move
from the top left to the bottom right.

Figure 12.2.2 : Plotting satisfaction and burnout scores.
Scatterplots can also indicate that there is no relation between the two variables. In these scatterplots (an example is shown
below in Figure 12.2.3 plotting job satisfaction and job performance) there is no interpretable shape or line in the
scatterplot. The points appear randomly throughout the plot. If we tried to draw a straight line through these points, it
would basically be flat. The low scores on job satisfaction have roughly the same scores on job performance as do the high
scores on job satisfaction. Scores in the middle or average range of job satisfaction have some scores on job performance
that are about equal to the high and low levels and some scores on job performance that are a little higher, but the overall
picture is one of inconsistency.
As we can see, scatterplots are very useful for giving us an approximate idea of whether or not there is a relation between
the two variables and, if there is, if that relation is positive or negative. They are also useful for another reason: they are the
only way to determine one of the characteristics of correlations that are discussed next: form.
Figure 12.2.3 : Plotting no relation between satisfaction and job performance.

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12.3: Three Characteristics
When we talk about correlations, there are three traits that we need to know in order to truly understand the relation (or
lack of relation) between X and Y : form, direction, and magnitude. We will discuss each of them in turn.
Form The first characteristic of relations between variables is their form. The form of a relation is the shape it takes in a
scatterplot, and a scatterplot is the only way it is possible to assess the form of a relation. there are three forms we look for:
linear, curvilinear, or no relation. A linear relation is what we saw in Figures 12.2.1, 12.2.2, and 12.2.3. If we drew a line
through the middle points in the any of the scatterplots, we would be best suited with a straight line. The term “linear”
comes from the word “line”. A linear relation is what we will always assume when we calculate correlations. All of the
correlations presented here are only valid for linear relations. Thus, it is important to plot our data to make sure we meet
this assumption.
The relation between two variables can also be curvilinear. As the name suggests, a curvilinear relation is one in which a
line through the middle of the points in a scatterplot will be curved rather than straight. Two examples are presented in
Figures 12.3.1 and 12.3.2.
Figure 12.3.1 : Exponentially increasing curvilinear relation
Figure 12.3.2 : Inverted-U curvilinear relation.

Curvilinear relations can take many shapes, and the two examples above are only a small sample of the possibilities. What
they have in common is that they both have a very clear pattern but that pattern is not a straight line. If we try to draw a
straight line through them, we would get a result similar to what is shown in Figure 12.3.3.

Figure 12.3.3 : Overlaying a straight line on a curvilinear relation.
Although that line is the closest it can be to all points at the same time, it clearly does a very poor job of representing the
relation we see. Additionally, the line itself is flat, suggesting there is no relation between the two variables even though
the data show that there is one. This is important to keep in mind, because the math behind our calculations of correlation
coefficients will only ever produce a straight line – we cannot create a curved line with the techniques discussed here.
Finally, sometimes when we create a scatterplot, we end up with no interpretable relation at all. An example of this is
shown below in Figure 12.3.4. The points in this plot show no consistency in relation, and a line through the middle would
once again be a straight, flat line.
Sometimes when we look at scatterplots, it is tempting to get biased by a few points that fall far away from the rest of the
points and seem to imply that there may be some sort of relation. These points are called outliers, and we will discuss them
in more detail later in the chapter. These can be common, so it is important to formally test for a relation between our
variables, not just rely on visualization. This is the point of hypothesis testing with correlations, and we will go in depth on
it soon. First, however, we need to describe the other two characteristics of relations: direction and magnitude.
Figure 12.3.4 : No relation
Direction
The direction of the relation between two variables tells us whether the variables change in the same way at the same time
or in opposite ways at the same time. We saw this concept earlier when first discussing scatterplots, and we used the terms
positive and negative. A positive relation is one in which X and Y change in the same direction: as X goes up, Y goes up,
and as X goes down, Y also goes down. A negative relation is just the opposite: X and Y change together in opposite
directions: as X goes up, Y goes down, and vice versa.
As we will see soon, when we calculate a correlation coefficient, we are quantifying the relation demonstrated in a
scatterplot. That is, we are putting a number to it. That number will be either positive, negative, or zero, and we interpret
the sign of the number as our direction. If the number is positive, it is a positive relation, and if it is negative, it is a
negative relation. If it is zero, then there is no relation. The direction of the relation corresponds directly to the slope of the
hypothetical line we draw through scatterplots when assessing the form of the relation. If the line has a positive slope that

moves from bottom left to top right, it is positive, and vice versa for negative. If the line it flat, that means it has no slope,
and there is no relation, which will in turn yield a zero for our correlation coefficient.
Magnitude
The number we calculate for our correlation coefficient, which we will describe in detail below, corresponds to the
magnitude of the relation between the two variables. The magnitude is how strong or how consistent the relation between
the variables is. Higher numbers mean greater magnitude, which means a stronger relation.
Our correlation coefficients will take on any value between -1.00 and 1.00, with 0.00 in the middle, which again represents
no relation. A correlation of -1.00 is a perfect negative relation; as X goes up by some amount, Y goes down by the same
amount, consistently. Likewise, a correlation of 1.00 indicates a perfect positive relation; as X goes up by some amount, Y
also goes up by the same amount. Finally, a correlation of 0.00, which indicates no relation, means that as X goes up by
some amount, Y may or may not change by any amount, and it does so inconsistently.
The vast majority of correlations do not reach -1.00 or positive 1.00. Instead, they fall in between, and we use rough cut
offs for how strong the relation is based on this number. Importantly, the sign of the number (the direction of the relation)
has no bearing on how strong the relation is. The only thing that matters is the magnitude, or the absolute value of the
correlation coefficient. A correlation of -1 is just as strong as a correlation of 1. We generally use values of 0.10, 0.30, and
0.50 as indicating weak, moderate, and strong relations, respectively.
The strength of a relation, just like the form and direction, can also be inferred from a scatterplot, though this is much more
difficult to do. Some examples of weak and strong relations are shown in Figures 12.3.5 and 12.3.6, respectively. Weak
correlations still have an interpretable form and direction, but it is much harder to see. Strong correlations have a very clear
pattern, and the points tend to form a line. The examples show two different directions, but remember that the direction
does not matter for the strength, only the consistency of the relation and the size of the number, which we will see next.
Figure 12.3.5 : Weak positive correlation.
Figure 12.3.6 : Strong negative correlation.

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12.4: Pearson’s r
There are several different types of correlation coefficients, but we will only focus on the most common: Pearson’s r. r is a
¯¯¯
¯
very popular correlation coefficient for assessing linear relations, and it serves as both a descriptive statistic (like X ) and
as a test statistic (like t ). It is descriptive because it describes what is happening in the scatterplot; r will have both a sign
(+/–) for the direction and a number (0 – 1 in absolute value) for the magnitude. As noted above, assumes a linear relation,
so nothing about r will suggest what the form is – it will only tell what the direction and magnitude would be if the form is
linear (Remember: always make a scatterplot first!). r also works as a test statistic because the magnitude of r will
correspond directly to a t value as the specific degrees of freedom, which can then be compared to a critical value. Luckily,
we do not need to do this conversion by hand. Instead, we will have a table of r critical values that looks very similar to
our t table, and we can compare our r directly to those.
The formula for r is very simple: it is just the covariance (defined above) divided by the standard deviations of X and Y :
covXY SP
r = = (12.4.1)
− −−−−−−−−−
sX sY √ SSX ∗ SSY
The first formula gives a direct sense of what a correlation is: a covariance standardized onto the scale of X and Y ; the
second formula is computationally simpler and faster. Both of these equations will give the same value, and as we saw at
the beginning of the chapter, all of these values are easily computed by using the sum of products table. When we do this
calculation, we will find that our answer is always between -1.00 and 1.00 (if it’s not, check the math again), which gives
us a standard, interpretable metric, similar to what z -scores did.
¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯
¯
It was stated earlier that r is a descriptive statistic like X , and just like X , it corresponds to a population parameter. For
correlations, the population parameter is the lowercase Greek letter ρ (“rho”); be careful not to confuse ρ with a p-value –
¯¯¯
¯
they look quite similar. r is an estimate of ρ just like X is an estimate of μ . Thus, we will test our observed value of r that
we calculate from the data and compare it to a value of ρ specified by our null hypothesis to see if the relation between our
variables is significant, as we will see in our example next.

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12.5: Anxiety and Depression
Anxiety and depression are often reported to be highly linked (or “comorbid”). Our hypothesis testing procedure follows the
same four-step process as before, starting with our null and alternative hypotheses. We will look for a positive relation
between our variables among a group of 10 people because that is what we would expect based on them being comorbid.

Our hypotheses for correlations start with a baseline assumption of no relation, and our alternative will be directional if we
expect to find a specific type of relation. For this example, we expect a positive relation:
H0 : There is no relation between anxiety and depression
H0 : ρ = 0
HA : There is a positive relation between anxiety and depression
H0 : ρ > 0
Remember that ρ (“rho”) is our population parameter for the correlation that we estimate with r, just like X and μ for means.
¯¯¯
¯
Remember also that if there is no relation between variables, the magnitude will be 0, which is where we get the null and
alternative hypothesis values.
Step 2: Find the Critical Values

The critical values for correlations come from the correlation table, which looks very similar to the t -table (see Figure 12.5.1).
Just like our t -table, the column of critical values is based on our significance level (α ) and the directionality of our test. The
row is determined by our degrees of freedom. For correlations, we have N – 2 degrees of freedom, rather than N – 1 (why this
is the case is not important). For our example, we have 10 people, so our degrees of freedom = 10 – 2 = 8.
Figure 12.5.1 : Correlation table

We were not given any information about the level of significance at which we should test our hypothesis, so we will assume
α = 0.05 as always. From our table, we can see that a 1-tailed test (because we expect only a positive relation) at the
α = 0.05 level has a critical value of r = 0.549. Thus, if our observed correlation is greater than 0.549, it will be statistically
∗
significant. This is a rather high bar (remember, the guideline for a strong relation is r = 0.50); this is because we have so few
people. Larger samples make it easier to find significant relations.

We have laid out our hypotheses and the criteria we will use to assess them, so now we can move on to our test statistic.
Before we do that, we must first create a scatterplot of the data to make sure that the most likely form of our relation is in fact
linear. Figure 12.5.2 below shows our data plotted out, and it looks like they are, in fact, linearly related, so Pearson’s r is
appropriate.

Figure 12.5.2 : Scatterplot of anxiety and depression
The data we gather from our participants is as follows:
Table 12.5.1 : Data from participants
Dep 2.81 1.96 3.43 3.40 4.71 1.80 4.27 3.68 2.44 3.13
Anx 3.54 3.05 3.81 3.43 4.03 3.59 4.17 3.46 3.19 4.12
We will need to put these values into our Sum of Products table to calculate the standard deviation and covariance of our
variables. We will use X for depression and Y for anxiety to keep track of our data, but be aware that this choice is arbitrary
and the math will work out the same if we decided to do the opposite. Our table is thus:
Table 12.5.2: Sum of Products table
¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯
¯ 2 ¯
¯¯¯ ¯
¯¯¯ 2 ¯¯¯
¯ ¯
¯
X (X − X ) (X − X ) Y (Y − Y ) (Y − Y ) (X − X )(Y − Y
2.81 -0.35 0.12 3.54 -0.10 0.01 0.04
1.96 -1.20 1.44 3.05 -0.59 0.35 0.71
3.43 0.27 0.07 3.81 0.17 0.03 0.05
3.40 0.24 0.06 3.43 -0.21 0.04 -0.05
4.71 1.55 2.40 4.03 0.39 0.15 0.60
1.80 -1.36 1.85 3.59 -0.05 0.00 0.07
4.27 1.11 1.23 4.17 0.53 0.28 0.59
3.68 0.52 0.27 3.46 -0.18 0.03 -0.09
2.44 -0.72 0.52 3.19 -0.45 0.20 0.32
3.13 -0.03 0.00 4.12 0.48 0.23 -0.01
31.63 0.03 7.97 36.39 -0.01 1.33 2.22
The bottom row is the sum of each column. We can see from this that the sum of the X observations is 31.63, which makes the
¯¯¯
¯
mean of the X variable X = 3.16. The deviation scores for X sum to 0.03, which is very close to 0, given rounding error, so
everything looks right so far. The next column is the squared deviations for X, so we can see that the sum of squares for X is
¯
¯¯¯
SS X = 7.97 . The same is true of the Y columns, with an average of Y = 3.64 , deviations that sum to zero within rounding
error, and a sum of squares as SS = 1.33. The final column is the product of our deviation scores (NOT of our squared
Y
deviations), which gives us a sum of products of SP = 2.22 .

There are now three pieces of information we need to calculate before we compute our correlation coefficient: the covariance
of X and Y and the standard deviation of each.
The covariance of two variable, remember, is the sum of products divided by N – 1. For our data:

SP 2.22
covXY = = = 0.25
N −1 9
The formula for standard deviation are the same as before. Using subscripts X and Y to denote depression and anxiety:
−−−−−−−−−−
¯¯¯
¯ −−−−
∑(X − X )2 7.97
sX = √ =√ = 0.94
N −1 9
−−−−−−−−−−
¯
¯¯¯
2
−−−−
∑(Y − Y ) 1.33
sY =√ =√ = 0.38
N −1 9
Now we have all of the information we need to calculate r:

covXY 0.25
r = = = 0.70
sX SY 0.94 ∗ 0.38
We can verify this using our other formula, which is computationally shorter:
SP 2.22
r = − −−−−−−−−− = −−−−−−− − = .70
√ SSX ∗ SSY √ 7.97 ∗ 1.33
So our observed correlation between anxiety and depression is r = 0.70, which, based on sign and magnitude, is a strong,
positive correlation. Now we need to compare it to our critical value to see if it is also statistically significant.
Step 4: Make a Decision

Our critical value was r = 0.549 and our obtained value was r = 0.70. Our obtained value was larger than our critical value,
∗
so we can reject the null hypothesis.

Reject H . Based on our sample of 10 people, there is a statistically significant, strong, positive relation between anxiety and
0
depression, r(8) = 0.70, p < .05.

Notice in our interpretation that, because we already know the magnitude and direction of our correlation, we can interpret
that. We also report the degrees of freedom, just like with t , and we know that p < α because we rejected the null hypothesis.
As we can see, even though we are dealing with a very different type of data, our process of hypothesis testing has remained
unchanged.

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12.6: Effect Size
Pearson’s r is an incredibly flexible and useful statistic. Not only is it both descriptive and inferential, as we saw above,
but because it is on a standardized metric (always between -1.00 and 1.00), it can also serve as its own effect size. In
general, we use r = 0.10, r = 0.30, and r = 0.50 as our guidelines for small, medium, and large effects. Just like with
Cohen’s d , these guidelines are not absolutes, but they do serve as useful indicators in most situations. Notice as well that
these are the same guidelines we used earlier to interpret the magnitude of the relation based on the correlation coefficient.
In addition to r being its own effect size, there is an additional effect size we can calculate for our results. This effect size
is r , and it is exactly what it looks like – it is the squared value of our correlation coefficient. Just like η in ANOVA, r
2 2 2
is interpreted as the amount of variance explained in the outcome variance, and the cut scores are the same as well: 0.01,
0.09, and 0.25 for small, medium, and large, respectively. Notice here that these are the same cutoffs we used for regular r
effect sizes, but squared (0.102 = 0.01, 0.302 = 0.09, 0.502 = 0.25) because, again, the r effect size is just the squared
2
correlation, so its interpretation should be, and is, the same. The reason we use r as an effect size is because our ability to
2
explain variance is often important to us.

The similarities between η and r in interpretation and magnitude should clue you in to the fact that they are similar
2 2
analyses, even if they look nothing alike. That is because, behind the scenes, they actually are! In the next chapter, we will
learn a technique called Linear Regression, which will formally link the two analyses together.

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12.7: Correlation versus Causation
We cover a great deal of material in introductory statistics and, as mentioned chapter 1, many of the principles underlying
what we do in statistics can be used in your day to day life to help you interpret information objectively and make better
decisions. We now come to what may be the most important lesson in introductory statistics: the difference between
correlation and causation.
It is very, very tempting to look at variables that are correlated and assume that this means they are causally related; that is,
it gives the impression that X is causing Y .
However, in reality, correlation do not – and cannot – do this. Correlations DO NOT prove causation. No matter how
logical or how obvious or how convenient it may seem, no correlational analysis can demonstrate causality. The ONLY
way to demonstrate a causal relation is with a properly designed and controlled experiment.
Many times, we have good reason for assessing the correlation between two variables, and often that reason will be that we
suspect that one causes the other. Thus, when we run our analyses and find strong, statistically significant results, it is very
tempting to say that we found the causal relation that we are looking for. The reason we cannot do this is that, without an
experimental design that includes random assignment and control variables, the relation we observe between the two
variables may be caused by something else that we failed to measure. These “third variables” are lurking variables or
confound variables, and they are impossible to detect and control for without an experiment.
Confound variables, which we will represent with Z , can cause two variables X and Y to appear related when in fact they
are not. They do this by being the hidden – or lurking – cause of each variable independently. That is, if Z causes X and Z
causes Y , the X and Y will appear to be related . However, if we control for the effect of Z (the method for doing this is
beyond the scope of this text), then the relation between X and Y will disappear.
A popular example for this effect is the correlation between ice cream sales and deaths by drowning. These variables are
known to correlate very strongly over time. However, this does not prove that one causes the other. The lurking variable in
this case is the weather – people enjoy swimming and enjoy eating ice cream more during hot weather as a way to cool off.
As another example, consider shoe size and spelling ability in elementary school children. Although there should clearly
be no causal relation here, the variables and nonetheless consistently correlated. The confound in this case? Age. Older
children spell better than younger children and are also bigger, so they have larger shoes.
When there is the possibility of confounding variables being the hidden cause of our observed correlation, we will often
collect data on Z as well and control for it in our analysis. This is good practice and a wise thing for researchers to do.
Thus, it would seem that it is easy to demonstrate causation with a correlation that controls for Z . However, the number of
variables that could potentially cause a correlation between X and Y is functionally limitless, so it would be impossible to
control for everything. That is why we use experimental designs; by randomly assigning people to groups and
manipulating variables in those groups, we can balance out individual differences in any variable that may be our cause.
It is not always possible to do an experiment, however, so there are certain situations in which we will have to be satisfied
with our observed relation and do the best we can to control for known confounds. However, in these situations, even if we
do an excellent job of controlling for many extraneous (a statistical and research term for “outside”) variables, we must be
very careful not to use causal language. That is because, even after controls, sometimes variables are related just by
chance.
Sometimes, variables will end up being related simply due to random chance, and we call these correlation spurious.
Spurious just means random, so what we are seeing is random correlations because, given enough time, enough variables,
and enough data, sampling error will eventually cause some variables to be related when they should not. Sometimes, this
even results in incredibly strong, but completely nonsensical, correlations. This becomes more and more of a problem as
our ability to collect massive datasets and dig through them improves, so it is very important to think critically about any
relation you encounter.

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12.8: Final Considerations
Correlations, although simple to calculate, and be very complex, and there are many additional issues we should consider.
We will look at two of the most common issues that affect our correlations, as well as discuss some other correlations and
reporting methods you may encounter.
Range Restriction
The strength of a correlation depends on how much variability is in each of the variables X and Y . This is evident in the
formula for Pearson’s r, which uses both covariance (based on the sum of products, which comes from deviation scores)
and the standard deviation of both variables (which are based on the sums of squares, which also come from deviation
scores). Thus, if we reduce the amount of variability in one or both variables, our correlation will go down. Failure to
capture the full variability of a variability is called range restriction.
Take a look at Figures 12.8.1 and 12.8.2 below. The first shows a strong relation (r = 0.67) between two variables. An
oval is overlain on top of it to make the relation even more distinct. The second shows the same data, but the bottom half
of the X variable (all scores below 5) have been removed, which causes our relation (again represented by a red oval) to
become much weaker (r = 0.38). Thus range restriction has truncated (made smaller) our observed correlation.
Figure 12.8.1 : Strong, positive correlation.
Figure 12.8.2 : Effect of range restriction.

Sometimes range restriction happens by design. For example, we rarely hire people who do poorly on job applications, so
we would not have the lower range of those predictor variables. Other times, we inadvertently cause range restriction by
not properly sampling our population. Although there are ways to correct for range restriction, they are complicated and
require much information that may not be known, so it is best to be very careful during the data collection process to avoid
it.
Outliers
Another issue that can cause the observed size of our correlation to be inappropriately large or small is the presence of
outliers. An outlier is a data point that falls far away from the rest of the observations in the dataset. Sometimes outliers are
the result of incorrect data entry, poor or intentionally misleading responses, or simple random chance. Other times,

however, they represent real people with meaningful values on our variables. The distinction between meaningful and
accidental outliers is a difficult one that is based on the expert judgment of the researcher. Sometimes, we will remove the
outlier (if we think it is an accident) or we may decide to keep it (if we find the scores to still be meaningful even though
they are different).
The plots below in Figure 12.8.3 show the effects that an outlier can have on data. In the first, we have our raw dataset.
You can see in the upper right corner that there is an outlier observation that is very far from the rest of our observations on
both the X and Y variables. In the middle, we see the correlation computed when we include the outlier, along with a
straight line representing the relation; here, it is a positive relation. In the third image, we see the correlation after
removing the outlier, along with a line showing the direction once again. Not only did the correlation get stronger, it
completely changed direction!
In general, there are three effects that an outlier can have on a correlation: it can change the magnitude (make it stronger or
weaker), it can change the significance (make a non-significant correlation significant or vice versa), and/or it can change
the direction (make a positive relation negative or vice versa). Outliers are a big issue in small datasets where a single
observation can have a strong weight compared to the rest. However, as our samples sizes get very large (into the
hundreds), the effects of outliers diminishes because they are outweighed by the rest of the data. Nevertheless, no matter
how large a dataset you have, it is always a good idea to screen for outliers, both statistically (using analyses that we do not
cover here) and/or visually (using scatterplots).
Figure 12.8.3 : Three plots showing correlations with and without outliers.
Other Correlation Coefficients

In this chapter we have focused on Pearson’s r as our correlation coefficient because it very common and very useful.
There are, however, many other correlations out there, each of which is designed for a different type of data. The most
common of these is Spearman’s rho (ρ), which is designed to be used on ordinal data rather than continuous data. This is a
very useful analysis if we have ranked data or our data do not conform to the normal distribution. There are even more
correlations for ordered categories, but they are much less common and beyond the scope of this chapter.
Additionally, the principles of correlations underlie many other advanced analyses. In the next chapter, we will learn about
regression, which is a formal way of running and analyzing a correlation that can be extended to more than two variables.
Regression is a very powerful technique that serves as the basis for even our most advanced statistical models, so what we
have learned in this chapter will open the door to an entire world of possibilities in data analysis.

Correlation Matrices
Many research studies look at the relation between more than two continuous variables. In such situations, we could
simply list our all of our correlations, but that would take up a lot of space and make it difficult to quickly find the relation
we are looking for. Instead, we create correlation matrices so that we can quickly and simply display our results. A matrix
is like a grid that contains our values. There is one row and one column for each of our variables, and the intersections of
the rows and columns for different variables contain the correlation for those two variables.
At the beginning of the chapter, we saw scatterplots presenting data for correlations between job satisfaction, well-being,
burnout, and job performance. We can create a correlation matrix to quickly display the numerical values of each. Such a
matrix is shown below.
Table 12.8.1 : Correlation matrix to display the numerical values
Satisfaction Well-Being Burnout Performance
Satisfaction 1.00
Well-Being 0.41 1.00
Burnout -0.54 -0.87 1.00
Performance 0.08 0.21 -0.33 1.00
Notice that there are values of 1.00 where each row and column of the same variable intersect. This is because a variable
correlates perfectly with itself, so the value is always exactly 1.00. Also notice that the upper cells are left blank and only
the cells below the diagonal of 1s are filled in. This is because correlation matrices are symmetrical: they have the same
values above the diagonal as below it. Filling in both sides would provide redundant information and make it a bit harder
to read the matrix, so we leave the upper triangle blank.
Correlation matrices are a very condensed way of presenting many results quickly, so they appear in almost all research
studies that use continuous variables. Many matrices also include columns that show the variable means and standard
deviations, as well as asterisks showing whether or not each correlation is statistically significant.

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12.E: Correlations (Exercises)
1. What does a correlation assess?
Answer:
Correlations assess the linear relation between two continuous variables
2. What are the three characteristics of a correlation coefficient?

3. What is the difference between covariance and correlation?
Answer:
Covariance is an unstandardized measure of how related two continuous variables are. Correlations are standardized
versions of covariance that fall between negative 1 and positive 1.
4. Why is it important to visualize correlational data in a scatterplot before performing analyses?

5. What sort of relation is displayed in the scatterplot below?
Answer:
Strong, positive, linear relation
6. What is the direction and magnitude of the following correlation coefficients

a. -0.81
b. 0.40
c. 0.15
d. -0.08
e. 0.29
7. Create a scatterplot from the following data:
Hours Studying Overall Class Performance
0.62 2.02
1.50 4.62
0.34 2.60
0.97 1.59
3.54 4.67
0.69 2.52
1.53 2.28
0.32 1.68

Hours Studying Overall Class Performance
1.94 2.50
1.25 4.04
1.42 2.63
3.07 3.53
3.99 3.90
1.73 2.75
1.9 2.95
Answer:
Your scatterplot should look similar to this:
8. In the following correlation matrix, what is the relation (number, direction, and magnitude) between…
a. Pay and Satisfaction
b. Stress and Health
Workplace Pay Satisfaction Stress Health
ce Pay 1.00
ce Satisfaction 0.68 1.00
ce Stress 0.02 -0.23 1.00
ce Health 0.05 0.15 -0.48 1.00
9. Using the data from problem 7, test for a statistically significant relation between the variables.
Answer:
Step 1: H : ρ = 0 , “There is no relation between time spent studying and overall performance in class”, H
0 A : ρ >0 ,
“There is a positive relation between time spent studying and overall performance in class.”
Step 2: df = 15– 2 = 13, α = 0.05 , 1-tailed test, r
∗
= 0.441 .
Step 3: Using the Sum of Products table, you should find:
¯¯¯
¯
X = 1.61, S SX = 17.44, Y
¯
¯¯¯
= 2.95, S SY = 13.60, SP = 10.06, r = 0.65 .
Step 4: Obtained statistic is greater than critical value, reject H . There is a statistically significant, strong, positive
0
relation between time spent studying and performance in class, r(13) = 0.65, p < .05.
10. A researcher collects data from 100 people to assess whether there is any relation between level of education and levels
of civic engagement. The researcher finds the following descriptive values:

¯¯¯
¯
X = 4.02, sx = 1.15, Y
¯
¯¯¯
= 15.92, sy = 5.01, S SX = 130.93, S SY = 2484.91, SP = 159.39 . Test for a significant
relation using the four step hypothesis testing procedure.

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CHAPTER OVERVIEW
13: LINEAR REGRESSION
In chapter 11, we learned about ANOVA, which involves a new way a looking at how our data are structured and the inferences we can draw
from that. In chapter 12, we learned about correlations, which analyze two continuous variables at the same time to see if they systematically
relate in a linear fashion. In this chapter, we will combine these two techniques in an analysis called simple linear regression, or regression
for short. Regression uses the technique of variance partitioning from ANOVA
13.1: LINE OF BEST FIT

In correlations, we referred to a linear trend in the data. That is, we assumed that there was a straight line we could draw through the
middle of our scatterplot that would represent the relation between our two variables, X and Y . Regression involves solving for the
equation of that line, which is called the Line of Best Fit.
13.2: PREDICTION
In regression, we most frequently talk about prediction, specifically predicting our outcome variable Y from our explanatory variable X,
and we use the line of best fit to make our predictions.
13.3: ANOVA TABLE

Our ANOVA table in regression follows the exact same format as it did for ANOVA (hence the name). Our top row is our observed effect,
our middle row is our error, and our bottom row is our total. The columns take on the same interpretations as well: from left to right, we
have our sums of squares, our degrees of freedom, our mean squares, and our F statistic.
13.4: HYPOTHESIS TESTING IN REGRESSION

Regression, like all other analyses, will test a null hypothesis in our data. In regression, we are interested in predicting Y scores and
explaining variance using a line, the slope of which is what allows us to get closer to our observed scores than the mean of Y can. Thus,
our hypotheses concern the slope of the line, which is estimated in the prediction equation by b .
13.5: HAPPINESS AND WELL-BEING

Researchers are interested in explaining differences in how happy people are based on how healthy people are. They gather data on each of
these variables from 18 people and fit a linear regression model to explain the variance. We will follow the four-step hypothesis testing
procedure to see if there is a relation between these variables that is statistically significant.
13.6: MULTIPLE REGRESSION AND OTHER EXTENSIONS

The next step in regression is to study multiple regression, which uses multiple X variables as predictors for a single Y variable at the same
time. The math of multiple regression is very complex but the logic is the same: we are trying to use variables that are statistically
significantly related to our outcome to explain the variance we observe in that outcome. Other forms of regression include curvilinear
models that can explain curves in the data rather than straight lines.
13.E: LINEAR REGRESSION (EXERCISES)
1 2/18/2022
13.1: Line of Best Fit
In correlations, we referred to a linear trend in the data. That is, we assumed that there was a straight line we could draw through
the middle of our scatterplot that would represent the relation between our two variables, X and Y . Regression involves solving for
the equation of that line, which is called the Line of Best Fit.
The line of best fit can be thought of as the central tendency of our scatterplot. The term “best fit” means that the line is as close to
all points (with each point representing both variables for a single person) in the scatterplot as possible, with a balance of scores
above and below the line. This is the same idea as the mean, which has an equal weighting of scores above and below it and is the
best singular descriptor of all our data points for a single variable.
We have already seen many scatterplots in chapter 2 and chapter 12, so we know by now that no scatterplot has points that form a
perfectly straight line. Because of this, when we put a straight line through a scatterplot, it will not touch all of the points, and it
may not even touch any! This will result in some distance between the line and each of the points it is supposed to represent, just
like a mean has some distance between it and all of the individual scores in the dataset.
The distances between the line of best fit and each individual data point go by two different names that mean the same thing: errors
and residuals. The term “error” in regression is closely aligned with the meaning of error in statistics (think standard error or
sampling error); it does not mean that we did anything wrong, it simply means that there was some discrepancy or difference
between what our analysis produced and the true value we are trying to get at it. The term “residual” is new to our study of
statistics, and it takes on a very similar meaning in regression to what it means in everyday parlance: there is something left over. In
regression, what is “left over” – that is, what makes up the residual – is an imperfection in our ability to predict values of the Y
variable using our line. This definition brings us to one of the primary purposes of regression and the line of best fit: predicting
scores.

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13.2: Prediction
The goal of regression is the same as the goal of ANOVA: to take what we know about one variable (X) and use it to explain our
observed differences in another variable (Y ). In ANOVA, we talked about – and tested for – group mean differences, but in
regression we do not have groups for our explanatory variable; we have a continuous variable, like in correlation. Because of this,
our vocabulary will be a little bit different, but the process, logic, and end result are all the same.
In regression, we most frequently talk about prediction, specifically predicting our outcome variable Y from our explanatory
variable X, and we use the line of best fit to make our predictions. Let’s take a look at the equation for the line, which is quite
simple:
Ŷ = a + bX (13.2.1)
The terms in the equation are defined as:

Ŷ : the predicted value of Y for an individual person
a : the intercept of the line
b : the slope of the line
X: the observed value of X for an individual person
What this shows us is that we will use our known value of X for each person to predict the value of Y for that person. The
predicted value, Ŷ , is called “y -hat” and is our best guess for what a person’s score on the outcome is. Notice also that the form of
the equation is very similar to very simple linear equations that you have likely encountered before and has only two parameter
estimates: an intercept (where the line crosses the Y-axis) and a slope (how steep – and the direction, positive or negative – the line
is). These are parameter estimates because, like everything else in statistics, we are interested in approximating the true value of the
relation in the population but can only ever estimate it using sample data. We will soon see that one of these parameters, the slope,
is the focus of our hypothesis tests (the intercept is only there to make the math work out properly and is rarely interpretable). The
formulae for these parameter estimates use very familiar values:
¯
¯¯¯ ¯
¯¯¯
a = Y − bX (13.2.2)
covXY SP Sy
b= = = r( ) (13.2.3)
2
s SSX sx
X
We have seen each of these before. Y and X are the means of Y and X, respectively; cov
¯
¯¯¯ ¯¯¯
¯
XYis the covariance of X and Y we
learned about with correlations; and s is the variance of X. The formula for the slope is very similar to the formula for a Pearson
2
X
correlation coefficient; the only difference is that we are dividing by the variance of X instead of the product of the standard
deviations of X and Y . Because of this, our slope is scaled to the same scale as our X variable and is no longer constrained to be
between 0 and 1 in absolute value. This formula provides a clear definition of the slope of the line of best fit, and just like with
correlation, this definitional formula can be simplified into a short computational formula for easier calculations. In this case, we
are simply taking the sum of products and dividing by the sum of squares for X.
Notice that there is a third formula for the slope of the line that involves the correlation between X and Y . This is because
regression and correlation look for the same thing: a straight line through the middle of the data. The only difference between a
regression coefficient in simple linear regression and a Pearson correlation coefficient is the scale. So, if you lack raw data but have
summary information on the correlation and standard deviations for variables, you can still compute a slope, and therefore
intercept, for a line of best fit.
It is very important to point out that the Y values in the equations for a and b are our observed Y values in the dataset, NOT the
predicted Y values (Ŷ ) from our equation for the line of best fit. Thus, we will have 3 values for each person: the observed value of
X(X), the observed value of Y (Y ) , and the predicted value of Y (Ŷ ). You may be asking why we would try to predict Y if we
have an observed value of Y , and that is a very reasonable question. The answer has two explanations: first, we need to use known
values of Y to calculate the parameter estimates in our equation, and we use the difference between our observed values and
predicted values (Y – Y
ˆ
) to see how accurate our equation is; second, we often use regression to create a predictive model that we
can then use to predict values of Y for other people for whom we only have information on X.

Let’s look at this from an applied example. Businesses often have more applicants for a job than they have openings available, so
they want to know who among the applicants is most likely to be the best employee. There are many criteria that can be used, but
one is a personality test for conscientiousness, with the belief being that more conscientious (more responsible) employees are
better than less conscientious employees. A business might give their employees a personality inventory to assess
conscientiousness and existing performance data to look for a relation. In this example, we have known values of the predictor (X,
conscientiousness) and outcome (Y , job performance), so we can estimate an equation for a line of best fit and see how accurately
conscientious predicts job performance, then use this equation to predict future job performance of applicants based only on their
known values of conscientiousness from personality inventories given during the application process.
The key assessing whether a linear regression works well is the difference between our observed and known Y values and our
predicted values. As mentioned in passing above, we use subtraction to find the difference between them (
ˆ
Y ) in the same
ˆ
Y –Y
way we use subtraction for deviation scores and sums of squares. The value (Y – Y ˆ
) is our residual, which, as defined above, is how
close our line of best fit is to our actual values. We can visualize residuals to get a better sense of what they are by creating a
scatterplot and overlaying a line of best fit on it, as shown in Figure 13.2.1.
Figure 13.2.1 : Scatterplot with residuals.

In Figure 13.2.1, the triangular dots represent observations from each person on both X and Y and the dashed bright red line is the
line of best fit estimated by the equation Y ˆ
= a + bX . For every person in the dataset, the line represents their predicted score. The
dark red bracket between the triangular dots and the predicted scores on the line of best fit are our residuals (they are only drawn
for four observations for ease of viewing, but in reality there is one for every observation); you can see that some residuals are
positive and some are negative, and that some are very large and some are very small. This means that some predictions are very
accurate and some are very inaccurate, and the some predictions overestimated values and some underestimated values. Across the
entire dataset, the line of best fit is the one that minimizes the total (sum) value of all residuals. That is, although predictions at an
individual level might be somewhat inaccurate, across our full sample and (theoretically) in future samples our total amount of
error is as small as possible. We call this property of the line of best fit the Least Squares Error Solution. This term means that the
solution – or equation – of the line is the one that provides the smallest possible value of the squared errors (squared so that they
can be summed, just like in standard deviation) relative to any other straight line we could draw through the data.
Predicting Scores and Explaining Variance

We have now seen that the purpose of regression is twofold: we want to predict scores based on our line and, as stated earlier,
explain variance in our observed Y variable just like in ANOVA. These two purposes go hand in hand, and our ability to predict
scores is literally our ability to explain variance. That is, if we cannot account for the variance in Y based on X, then we have no
reason to use X to predict future values of Y .
We know that the overall variance in Y is a function of each score deviating from the mean of Y (as in our calculation of variance
and standard deviation). So, just like the red brackets in figure 1 representing residuals, given as (Y – Y
ˆ
), we can visualize the
overall variance as each score’s distance from the overall mean of Y , given as (Y – Y ), our normal deviation score. This is shown
¯
¯¯¯
in Figure 13.2.2.

Figure 13.2.2 : Scatterplot with residuals and deviation scores.
In Figure 13.2.2, the solid blue line is the mean of Y , and the blue brackets are the deviation scores between our observed values of
Y and the mean of Y . This represents the overall variance that we are trying to explain. Thus, the residuals and the deviation scores
are the same type of idea: the distance between an observed score and a given line, either the line of best fit that gives predictions
or the line representing the mean that serves as a baseline. The difference between these two values, which is the distance between
the lines themselves, is our model’s ability to predict scores above and beyond the baseline mean; that is, it is our models ability to
explain the variance we observe in Y based on values of X. If we have no ability to explain variance, then our line will be flat (the
slope will be 0.00) and will be the same as the line representing the mean, and the distance between the lines will be 0.00 as well.
We now have three pieces of information: the distance from the observed score to the mean, the distance from the observed score to
the prediction line, and the distance from the prediction line to the mean. These are our three pieces of information needed to test
our hypotheses about regression and to calculate effect sizes. They are our three Sums of Squares, just like in ANOVA. Our
distance from the observed score to the mean is the Sum of Squares Total, which we are trying to explain. Our distance from the
observed score to the prediction line is our Sum of Squares Error, or residual, which we are trying to minimize. Our distance from
the prediction line to the mean is our Sum of Squares Model, which is our observed effect and our ability to explain variance. Each
of these will go into the ANOVA table to calculate our test statistic.

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13.3: ANOVA Table
Our ANOVA table in regression follows the exact same format as it did for ANOVA (hence the name). Our top row is our
observed effect, our middle row is our error, and our bottom row is our total. The columns take on the same interpretations
as well: from left to right, we have our sums of squares, our degrees of freedom, our mean squares, and our F statistic.
Table 13.3.1 : ANOVA table in regression
Source SS df MS F
Model ˆ ¯
¯¯¯ 2
∑(Y − Y ) 1 S SM /dfM M SM /M SE
Error ˆ 2
∑(Y − Y ) N −2 S SE /dfE
Total ∑(Y − Y )
¯
¯¯¯ 2
N −1
As with ANOVA, getting the values for the SS column is a straightforward but somewhat arduous process. First, you take
the raw scores of X and Y and calculate the means, variances, and covariance using the sum of products table introduced
in our chapter on correlations. Next, you use the variance of X and the covariance of X and Y to calculate the slope of the
line, b , the formula for which is given above. After that, you use the means and the slope to find the intercept, a , which is
given alongside b . After that, you use the full prediction equation for the line of best fit to get predicted Y scores (Yˆ ) for
each person. Finally, you use the observed Y scores, predicted Y scores, and mean of Y to find the appropriate deviation
scores for each person for each sum of squares source in the table and sum them to get the Sum of Squares Model, Sum of
Squares Error, and Sum of Squares Total. As with ANOVA, you won’t be required to compute the SS values by hand, but
you will need to know what they represent and how they fit together.
The other columns in the ANOVA table are all familiar. The degrees of freedom column still has N – 1 for our total, but
now we have N – 2 for our error degrees of freedom and 1 for our model degrees of freedom; this is because simple linear
regression only has one predictor, so our degrees of freedom for the model is always 1 and does not change. The total
degrees of freedom must still be the sum of the other two, so our degrees of freedom error will always be N – 2 for simple
linear regression. The mean square columns are still the SS column divided by the df column, and the test statistic F is
still the ratio of the mean squares. Based on this, it is now explicitly clear that not only do regression and ANOVA have the
same goal but they are, in fact, the same analysis entirely. The only difference is the type of data we feed into the predictor
side of the equations: continuous for regression and categorical for ANOVA.

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13.4: Hypothesis Testing in Regression
Regression, like all other analyses, will test a null hypothesis in our data. In regression, we are interested in predicting Y
scores and explaining variance using a line, the slope of which is what allows us to get closer to our observed scores than the
mean of Y can. Thus, our hypotheses concern the slope of the line, which is estimated in the prediction equation by b .
Specifically, we want to test that the slope is not zero:
H0 : There is no explanatory relation between our variables
H0 : β = 0
HA : There is an explanatory relation between our variables
HA : β > 0
HA : β < 0
HA : β ≠ 0
A non-zero slope indicates that we can explain values in Y based on X and therefore predict future values of Y based on X.
Our alternative hypotheses are analogous to those in correlation: positive relations have values above zero, negative relations
have values below zero, and two-tailed tests are possible. Just like ANOVA, we will test the significance of this relation using
the F statistic calculated in our ANOVA table compared to a critical value from the F distribution table. Let’s take a look at an
example and regression in action.

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13.5: Happiness and Well-Being
Researchers are interested in explaining differences in how happy people are based on how healthy people are. They gather
data on each of these variables from 18 people and fit a linear regression model to explain the variance. We will follow the
four-step hypothesis testing procedure to see if there is a relation between these variables that is statistically significant.

The null hypothesis in regression states that there is no relation between our variables. The alternative states that there is a
relation, but because our research description did not explicitly state a direction of the relation, we will use a nondirectional
hypothesis.
Ho 0 : There is no explanatory relation between health and happiness
H0 : β = 0
H A : There is an explanatory relation between health and happiness
HA : β ≠ 0
Step 2: Find the Critical Value

Because regression and ANOVA are the same analysis, our critical value for regression will come from the same place: the F
distribution table, which uses two types of degrees of freedom. We saw above that the degrees of freedom for our numerator –
the Model line – is always 1 in simple linear regression, and that the denominator degrees of freedom – from the Error line – is
N – 2 . In this instance, we have 18 people so our degrees of freedom for the denominator is 16. Going to our F table, we find
that the appropriate critical value for 1 and 16 degrees of freedom is F = 4.49, shown below in Figure 13.5.1.
∗
Figure 13.5.1 : Critical value from F distribution table

The process of calculating the test statistic for regression first involves computing the parameter estimates for the line of best
fit. To do this, we first calculate the means, standard deviations, and sum of products for our X and Y variables, as shown
below.
Table 13.5.1: Sum of Products table
¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯
¯ 2 ¯
¯¯¯ ¯
¯¯¯ 2 ¯¯¯
¯ ¯
¯
X (X − X ) (X − X ) Y (Y − Y ) (Y − Y ) (X − X )(Y − Y
17.65 -2.13 4.53 10.36 -7.10 50.37 15.10
16.99 -2.79 7.80 16.38 -1.08 1.16 3.01
18.30 -1.48 2.18 15.23 -2.23 4.97 3.29
18.28 -1.50 2.25 14.26 -3.19 10.18 4.79
21.89 2.11 4.47 17.71 0.26 0.07 0.55
22.61 2.83 8.01 16.47 -0.98 0.97 -2.79

¯¯¯
¯ ¯¯¯
¯ 2 ¯
¯¯¯ ¯
¯¯¯ 2 ¯¯¯
¯ ¯
¯
X (X − X ) (X − X ) Y (Y − Y ) (Y − Y ) (X − X )(Y − Y
17.42 -2.36 5.57 16.89 -0.56 0.32 1.33
20.35 0.57 0.32 18.74 1.29 1.66 -0.09.73
18.89 -0.89 0.79 21.96 4.50 20.26 -4.00
18.63 -1.15 1.32 17.57 0.11 0.01 -0.13
19.67 -0.11 0.01 18.12 0.66 0.44 -0.08
18.39 -1.39 1.94 12.08 -5.37 28.87 7.48
22.48 2.71 7.32 17.11 -0.34 0.12 -0.93
23.25 3.47 12.07 21.66 4.21 17.73 14.63
19.91 0.13 0.02 17.86 0.40 0.16 0.05
18.21 -1.57 2.45 18.49 1.03 1.07 -1.62
23.65 3.87 14.99 22.13 4.67 21.82 18.08
19.45 -0.33 0.11 21.17 3.72 13.82 -1.22
356.02 0.00 76.14 314.18 0.00 173.99 58.29
¯
¯¯¯ ¯
¯¯¯
From the raw data in our X and Y columns, we find that the means are X = 19.78 and Y = 17.45. The deviation scores for
each variable sum to zero, so all is well there. The sums of squares for X and Y ultimately lead us to standard deviations of
sX = 2.12 and s Y = 3.20 . Finally, our sum of products is 58.29, which gives us a covariance of cov = 3.43, so we know
XY
our relation will be positive. This is all the information we need for our equations for the line of best.
First, we must calculate the slope of the line:
SP 58.29
b= = = 0.77
SSX 76.14
This means that as X changes by 1 unit, Y will change by 0.77. In terms of our problem, as health increases by 1, happiness
goes up by 0.77, which is a positive relation. Next, we use the slope, along with the means of each variable, to compute the
intercept:
¯
¯¯¯ ¯¯¯
¯
a = Y −b X
a = 17.45 − 0.77 ∗ 19.78
a = 17.45 − 15.03 = 2.42
For this particular problem (and most regressions), the intercept is not an important or interpretable value, so we will not read
into it further. Now that we have all of our parameters estimated, we can give the full equation for our line of best fit:
Ŷ = 2.42 + 0.77X
We can plot this relation in a scatterplot and overlay our line onto it, as shown in Figure 13.5.2.

Figure 13.5.2 : Health and happiness data and line.
We can use the line equation to find predicted values for each observation and use them to calculate our sums of squares
model and error, but this is tedious to do by hand, so we will let the computer software do the heavy lifting in that column of
our ANOVA table:
Source SS df MS F
Model 44.62
Error 129.37
Total
Now that we have these, we can fill in the rest of the ANOVA table. We already found our degrees of freedom in Step 2:
Table 13.5.3: ANOVA Table
Source SS df MS F
Model 44.62 1
Error 129.37 16
Total
Our total line is always the sum of the other two lines, giving us:
Source SS df MS F
Model 44.62 1
Error 129.37 16
Total 173.99 17
Our mean squares column is only calculated for the model and error lines and is always our SS divided by our df , which is:
Source SS df MS F
Model 44.62 1 44.62
Error 129.37 16 8.09

Source SS df MS F
Total 173.99 17
Finally, our F statistic is the ratio of the mean squares:

Source SS df MS F
Model 44.62 1 44.62 5.52
Error 129.37 16 8.09
Total 173.99 17
This gives us an obtained F statistic of 5.52, which we will now use to test our hypothesis.

We now have everything we need to make our final decision. Our obtained test statistic was F = 5.52 and our critical value
was F = 4.49. Since our obtained test statistic is greater than our critical value, we can reject the null hypothesis.
∗
Reject H0 . Based on our sample of 18 people, we can predict levels of happiness based on how healthy someone is,
F (1, 16) = 5.52, p < .05 .
Effect Size We know that, because we rejected the null hypothesis, we should calculate an effect size. In regression, our effect
size is variance explained, just like it was in ANOVA. Instead of using η to represent this, we instead us R , as we saw in
2 2
correlation (yet more evidence that all of these are the same analysis). Variance explained is still the ratio of SS to SS :M T
2
SSM 44.62
R = = = 0.26
SST 173.99
We are explaining 26% of the variance in happiness based on health, which is a large effect size (R uses the same effect size
2
cutoffs as η ). 2
Accuracy in Prediction
We found a large, statistically significant relation between our variables, which is what we hoped for. However, if we want to
use our estimated line of best fit for future prediction, we will also want to know how precise or accurate our predicted values
are. What we want to know is the average distance from our predictions to our actual observed values, or the average size of
the residual (Y − Yˆ ). The average size of the residual is known by a specific name: the standard error of the estimate (
S ˆ
(Y −Y )
), which is given by the formula
−−−−−−−−−−
ˆ)
∑(Y − Y
2
S ˆ =√ (13.5.1)
(Y −Y )
N −2
This formula is almost identical to our standard deviation formula, and it follows the same logic. We square our residuals, add
them up, then divide by the degrees of freedom. Although this sounds like a long process, we already have the sum of the
squared residuals in our ANOVA table! In fact, the value under the square root sign is just the SS divided by the df , which
E E
we know is called the mean squared error, or M S : E
−−−−−−−−− −
ˆ 2
∑(Y − Y ) −−−−−
s ˆ =√ = √M SE (13.5.2)
(Y −Y )
N −2
For our example:

−−−−−−
129.37 −−−
−
s ˆ
=√ = √8.09 = 2.84
(Y −Y )
16

So on average, our predictions are just under 3 points away from our actual values. There are no specific cutoffs or guidelines
for how big our standard error of the estimate can or should be; it is highly dependent on both our sample size and the scale of
our original Y variable, so expert judgment should be used. In this case, the estimate is not that far off and can be considered
reasonably precise.

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13.6: Multiple Regression and Other Extensions
Simple linear regression as presented here is only a stepping stone towards an entire field of research and application.
Regression is an incredibly flexible and powerful tool, and the extensions and variations on it are far beyond the scope of
this chapter (indeed, even entire books struggle to accommodate all possible applications of the simple principles laid out
here). The next step in regression is to study multiple regression, which uses multiple X variables as predictors for a single
Y variable at the same time. The math of multiple regression is very complex but the logic is the same: we are trying to
use variables that are statistically significantly related to our outcome to explain the variance we observe in that outcome.
Other forms of regression include curvilinear models that can explain curves in the data rather than the straight lines used
here, as well as moderation models that change the relation between two variables based on levels of a third. The
possibilities are truly endless and offer a lifetime of discovery.

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13.E: Linear Regression (Exercises)
1. How are ANOVA and linear regression similar? How are they different?
Answer:
ANOVA and simple linear regression both take the total observed variance and partition it into pieces that we can
explain and cannot explain and use the ratio of those pieces to test for significant relations. They are different in that
ANOVA uses a categorical variable as a predictor whereas linear regression uses a continuous variable.
2. What is a residual?
3. How are correlation and regression similar? How are they different?
Answer:
Correlation and regression both involve taking two continuous variables and finding a linear relation between them.
Correlations find a standardized value describing the direction and magnitude of the relation whereas regression finds
the line of best fit and uses it to partition and explain variance.
4. What are the two parameters of the line of best fit, and what do they represent?
5. What is our criteria for finding the line of best fit?
Answer:
Least Squares Error Solution; the line that minimizes the total amount of residual error in the dataset.
6. Fill out the rest of the ANOVA tables below for simple linear regressions:
a.
Source SS df MS F
Model 34.21
Error
Total 66.12 54
b. Source SS df MS F
Model 6.03
Error 16
Total 19.98
7. In chapter 12, we found a statistically significant correlation between overall performance in class and how much time
someone studied. Use the summary statistics calculated in that problem (provided here) to compute a line of best fit
¯¯¯
¯ ¯
¯¯¯
predicting success from study times: X = 1.61, s = 1.12, Y = 2.95, s = 0.99, r = 0.65.
X Y
Answer:
¯
¯¯¯ ¯¯¯
¯
∗ ˆ
b = r (sy / sx ) = 0.65 ∗ (0.99/1.12) = 0.72; a = Y − b X = 2.95– (0.72 ∗ 1.61) = 1.79; Y = 1.79 + 0.72X
8. Using the line of best fit equation created in problem 7, predict the scores for how successful people will be based on
how much they study:
a. X = 1.20
b. X = 3.33
c. X = 0.71
d. X = 4.00

9. You have become suspicious that the draft rankings of your fantasy football league have no predictive value for how
teams place at the end of the season. You go back to historical league data and find rankings of teams after the draft and
at the end of the season (below) to test for a statistically significant predictive relation. Assume SSM = 2.65 and
SSE = 337.35
Draft Projection Final Rankings
1 14
2 6
3 8
4 13
5 2
6 15
7 4
8 10
9 11
10 16
11 9
12 7
13 14
14 12
15 1
16 5
Answer:
Step 1: H0 : β = 0 “There is no predictive relation between draft rankings and final rankings in fantasy football,”
HA : β ≠ 0 , “There is a predictive relation between draft rankings and final rankings in fantasy football.”
Step 2: Our model will have 1 (based on the number of predictors) and 14 (based on how many observations we have)
degrees of freedom, giving us a critical value of F = 4.60. ∗
¯¯¯
¯ ¯
¯¯¯
Step 3: Using the sum of products table, we find : X = 8.50, Y = 8.50, SSX = 339.86, SP = 29.99 , giving us a line
of best fit of: b = 29.99/339.86 = 0.09; a = 8.50 – 0.09*8.50 = 7.74; ˆ
Y = 7.74 + 0.09X . Our given SS values and our
df from step 2 allow us to fill in the ANOVA table:
Source SS df MS F
Model 2.65 1 2.65 0.11
Error 337.35 14 24.10

Total 339.86 15
Step 4: Our obtained value was smaller than our critical value, so we fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is no
evidence to suggest that draft rankings have any predictive value for final fantasy football rankings,
F (1, 14) = 0.11, p > .05
10. You have summary data for two variables: how extroverted some is (X) and how often someone volunteers (Y ). Using
these values, calculate the line of best fit predicting volunteering from extroversion then test for a statistically
significant relation using the hypothesis testing procedure:
= 2.12, r = 0.34, N = 67, SSM = 19.79, SSE = 215.77.
¯¯¯
¯ ¯
¯¯¯
X = 12.58, s X = 4.65, Y = 7.44, s Y

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CHAPTER OVERVIEW
14: CHI-SQUARE
We come at last to our final topic: chi-square (χ2). This test is a special form of analysis called a non-parametric test, so the structure of it
will look a little bit different from what we have done so far. However, the logic of hypothesis testing remains unchanged. The purpose of
chi-square is to understand the frequency distribution of a single categorical variable or find a relation between two categorical variables,
which is a frequently very useful way to look at our data.
14.1: CATEGORIES AND FREQUENCY TABLES

Our data for the χ2 test are categorical, specifically nominal, variables. Recall that nominal variables have no specified order and can only
be described by their names and the frequencies with which they occur in the dataset. Thus, unlike our other variables that we have tested,
we cannot describe our data for the χ2 test using means and standard deviations. Instead, we will use frequencies tables.
14.2: GOODNESS-OF-FIT
The first of our two χ² tests assesses one categorical variable against a null hypothesis of equally sized frequencies. Equal frequency
distributions are what we would expect to get if categorization was completely random. We could, in theory, also test against a specific
distribution of category sizes if we have a good reason to (e.g. we have a solid foundation of how the regular population is distributed), but
this is less common, so we will not deal with it in this text.
14.3: Χ² STATISTIC
The calculations for our test statistic in χ² tests combine our information from our observed frequencies ( O ) and our expected frequencies
( E ) for each level of our categorical variable. For each cell (category) we find the difference between the observed and expected values,
square them, and divide by the expected values. We then sum this value across cells for our test statistic.
14.4: PINEAPPLE ON PIZZA

There is a very passionate and on-going debate on whether or not pineapple should go on pizza. Being the objective, rational data analysts
that we are, we will collect empirical data to see if we can settle this debate once and for all. We gather data from a group of adults asking
for a simple Yes/No answer.
14.5: CONTINGENCY TABLES FOR TWO VARIABLES

The goodness-of-fit test is a useful tool for assessing a single categorical variable. However, what is more common is wanting to know if
two categorical variables are related to one another. This type of analysis is similar to a correlation, the only difference being that we are
working with nominal data, which violates the assumptions of traditional correlation coefficients. This is where the χ² test for
independence comes in handy.
14.6: TEST FOR INDEPENDENCE

The χ² test performed on contingency tables is known as the test for independence. In this analysis, we are looking to see if the values of
each categorical variable (that is, the frequency of their levels) is related to or independent of the values of the other categorical variable.
Because we are still doing a χ² test, which is nonparametric, we still do not have mathematical versions of our hypotheses. The actual
interpretations of the hypotheses are quite simple.
14.7: COLLEGE SPORTS

14.E: CHI-SQUARE (EXERCISES)
1 2/18/2022
14.1: Categories and Frequency Tables
Our data for the χ test are categorical, specifically nominal, variables. Recall from unit 1 that nominal variables have no
2
specified order and can only be described by their names and the frequencies with which they occur in the dataset. Thus,
unlike our other variables that we have tested, we cannot describe our data for the χ test using means and standard
2
deviations. Instead, we will use frequencies tables.

Table 14.1.1 : Pet Preferences
Cat Dog Other Total
Observed 14 17 5 36
Expected 12 12 12 36
Table 14.1.1 gives an example of a frequency table used for a χ test. The columns represent the different categories
2
within our single variable, which in this example is pet preference. The χ test can assess as few as two categories, and
2
there is no technical upper limit on how many categories can be included in our variable, although, as with ANOVA,
having too many categories makes our computations long and our interpretation difficult. The final column in the table is
the total number of observations, or N . The χ test assumes that each observation comes from only one person and that
2
each person will provide only one observation, so our total observations will always equal our sample size.
There are two rows in this table. The first row gives the observed frequencies of each category from our dataset; in this
example, 14 people reported liking preferring cats as pets, 17 people reported preferring dogs, and 5 people reported a
different animal. The second row gives expected values; expected values are what would be found if each category had
equal representation. The calculation for an expected value is:
N
E = (14.1.1)
C
Where N is the total number of people in our sample and C is the number of categories in our variable (also the number of
columns in our table). The expected values correspond to the null hypothesis for χ tests: equal representation of
2
categories. Our first of two χ tests, the Goodness-of-Fit test, will assess how well our data lines up with, or deviates from,
2
this assumption.

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14.2: Goodness-of-Fit
The first of our two χ tests assesses one categorical variable against a null hypothesis of equally sized frequencies. Equal
2
frequency distributions are what we would expect to get if categorization was completely random. We could, in theory,
also test against a specific distribution of category sizes if we have a good reason to (e.g. we have a solid foundation of
how the regular population is distributed), but this is less common, so we will not deal with it in this text.
Hypotheses
All χ tests, including the goodness-of-fit test, are non-parametric. This means that there is no population parameter we
2
are estimating or testing against; we are working only with our sample data. Because of this, there are no mathematical
statements for χ hypotheses. This should make sense because the mathematical hypothesis statements were always about
2
population parameters (e.g. μ ), so if we are non-parametric, we have no parameters and therefore no mathematical
statements.
We do, however, still state our hypotheses verbally. For goodness-of-fit χ tests, our null hypothesis is that there is an
2
equal number of observations in each category. That is, there is no difference between the categories in how prevalent they
are. Our alternative hypothesis says that the categories do differ in their frequency. We do not have specific directions or
one-tailed tests for χ , matching our lack of mathematical statement.
2
Degrees of Freedom and the χ table 2
Our degrees of freedom for the χ test are based on the number of categories we have in our variable, not on the number of
2
people or observations like it was for our other tests. Luckily, they are still as simple to calculate:
df = C − 1 (14.2.1)
So for our pet preference example, we have 3 categories, so we have 2 degrees of freedom. Our degrees of freedom, along
with our significance level (still defaulted to α = 0.05) are used to find our critical values in the χ table, which is shown
2
in figure 1. Because we do not have directional hypotheses for χ tests, we do not need to differentiate between critical
2
values for 1- or 2-tailed tests. In fact, just like our F tests for regression and ANOVA, all χ tests are 1-tailed tests.
2
Figure 14.2.1 : First 10 rows of the χ table

2

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14.3: χ² Statistic
The calculations for our test statistic in χ tests combine our information from our observed frequencies (O) and our
2
expected frequencies (E ) for each level of our categorical variable. For each cell (category) we find the difference between
the observed and expected values, square them, and divide by the expected values. We then sum this value across cells for
our test statistic. This is shown in the formula:
2
(O − E)
2
χ =∑ (14.3.1)
E
For our pet preference data, we would have:

2 2 2
(14 − 12) (17 − 12) (5 − 12)
2
χ = + + = 0.33 + 2.08 + 4.08 = 6.49
12 12 12
Notice that, for each cell’s calculation, the expected value in the numerator and the expected value in the denominator are
the same value. Let’s now take a look at an example from start to finish.

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14.4: Pineapple on Pizza
There is a very passionate and on-going debate on whether or not pineapple should go on pizza. Being the objective,
rational data analysts that we are, we will collect empirical data to see if we can settle this debate once and for all. We
gather data from a group of adults asking for a simple Yes/No answer.

We start, as always, with our hypotheses. Our null hypothesis of no difference will state that an equal number of people
will say they do or do not like pineapple on pizza, and our alternative will be that one side wins out over the other:
H0 : An equal number of people do and do not like pineapple on pizza
HA : A significant majority of people will agree one way or the other

To avoid any potential bias in this crucial analysis, we will leave α at its typical level. We have two options in our data
(Yes or No), which will give us two categories. Based on this, we will have 1 degree of freedom. From our χ table, we 2
find a critical value of 3.84.

The results of the data collection are presented in Table 14.4.1. We had data from 45 people in all and 2 categories, so our
expected values are E = 45/2 = 22.50.
Table 14.4.1 : Results of Data collection
Yes No Total
Observed 26 19 45
Expected 22.50 22.50 45
We can use these to calculate our χ statistic:

2
2 2
(26 − 22.50) (19 − 22.50)
2
χ = + = 0.54 + 0.54 = 1.08
22.50 22.50

Our observed test statistic had a value of 1.08 and our critical value was 3.84. Our test statistic was smaller than our critical
value, so we fail to reject the null hypothesis, and the debate rages on.

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14.5: Contingency Tables for Two Variables
The goodness-of-fit test is a useful tool for assessing a single categorical variable. However, what is more common is
wanting to know if two categorical variables are related to one another. This type of analysis is similar to a correlation, the
only difference being that we are working with nominal data, which violates the assumptions of traditional correlation
coefficients. This is where the χ test for independence comes in handy.
2
As noted above, our only description for nominal data is frequency, so we will again present our observations in a
frequency table. When we have two categorical variables, our frequency table is crossed. That is, each combination of
levels from each categorical variable are presented. This type of frequency table is called a contingency table because it
shows the frequency of each category in one variable, contingent upon the specific level of the other variable.
An example contingency table is shown in Table 14.5.1, which displays whether or not 168 college students watched
college sports growing up (Yes/No) and whether the students’ final choice of which college to attend was influenced by the
college’s sports teams (Yes – Primary, Yes – Somewhat, No):
Table 14.5.1 : Contingency table of college sports and decision making
Affected Decision
College Sports
Primary Somewhat No Total
Yes 47 26 14 87
Watched
No 21 23 37 81
Total 68 49 51 168
In contrast to the frequency table for our goodness-of-fit test, our contingency table does not contain expected values, only
observed data. Within our table, wherever our rows and columns cross, we have a cell. A cell contains the frequency of
observing it’s corresponding specific levels of each variable at the same time. The top left cell in Table 14.5.1 shows us
that 47 people in our study watched college sports as a child AND had college sports as their primary deciding factor in
which college to attend.
Cells are numbered based on which row they are in (rows are numbered top to bottom) and which column they are in
(columns are numbered left to right). We always name the cell using (R,C), with the row first and the column second. A
quick and easy way to remember the order is that R/C Cola exists but C/R Cola does not. Based on this convention, the top
left cell containing our 47 participants who watched college sports as a child and had sports as a primary criteria is cell
(1,1). Next to it, which has 26 people who watched college sports as a child but had sports only somewhat affect their
decision, is cell (1,2), and so on. We only number the cells where our categories cross. We do not number our total cells,
which have their own special name: marginal values.
Marginal values are the total values for a single category of one variable, added up across levels of the other variable. In
table 3, these marginal values have been italicized for ease of explanation, though this is not normally the case. We can see
that, in total, 87 of our participants (47+26+14) watched college sports growing up and 81 (21+23+37) did not. The total of
these two marginal values is 168, the total number of people in our study. Likewise, 68 people used sports as a primary
criteria for deciding which college to attend, 50 considered it somewhat, and 50 did not use it as criteria at all. The total of
these marginal values is also 168, our total number of people. The marginal values for rows and columns will always both
add up to the total number of participants, N , in the study. If they do not, then a calculation error was made and you must
go back and check your work.
Expected Values of Contingency Tables

Our expected values for contingency tables are based on the same logic as they were for frequency tables, but now we
must incorporate information about how frequently each row and column was observed (the marginal values) and how
many people were in the sample overall (N ) to find what random chance would have made the frequencies out to be.
Specifically:
Ri Cj
Eij = (14.5.1)
N

The subscripts i and j indicate which row and column, respectively, correspond to the cell we are calculating the expected
frequency for, and the R and C are the row and column marginal values, respectively. N is still the total sample size.
i j
Using the data from Table 14.5.1, we can calculate the expected frequency for cell (1,1), the college sport watchers who
used sports at their primary criteria, to be:
87 ∗ 68
E1,1 = = 35.21
168
We can follow the same math to find all the expected values for this table:
Table 14.5.2: Contingency table of college sports and decision making
Affected Decision
College Sports
Primary Somewhat No Total
Yes 35.21 25.38 26.41 87

Watched
No 32.79 23.62 24.59 81
Total 68 49 51
Notice that the marginal values still add up to the same totals as before. This is because the expected frequencies are just
row and column averages simultaneously. Our total N will also add up to the same value.
The observed and expected frequencies can be used to calculate the same χ statistic as we did for the goodness-of-fit test.
2
Before we get there, though, we should look at the hypotheses and degrees of freedom used for contingency tables.

Downtown Campus)

14.6: Test for Independence
The χ test performed on contingency tables is known as the test for independence. In this analysis, we are looking to see if the
2
values of each categorical variable (that is, the frequency of their levels) is related to or independent of the values of the other
categorical variable. Because we are still doing a χ test, which is nonparametric, we still do not have mathematical versions of our
2
hypotheses. The actual interpretations of the hypotheses are quite simple: the null hypothesis says that the variables are
independent or not related, and alternative says that they are not independent or that they are related. Using this set up and the data
provided in Table 14.5.2, let’s formally test for whether or not watching college sports as a child is related to using sports as a
criteria for selecting a college to attend.

Campus)

14.7: College Sports
We will follow the same 4 step procedure as we have since chapter 7.

Our null hypothesis of no difference will state that there is no relation between our variables, and our alternative will state that our
variables are related:
H0 : College choice criteria is independent of college sports viewership as a child
HA : College choice criteria is related to college sports viewership as a child

Our critical value will come from the same table that we used for the goodness-of-fit test, but our degrees of freedom will change.
Because we now have rows and columns (instead of just columns) our new degrees of freedom use information on both:
df = (R − 1)(C − 1) (14.7.1)
In our example:
df = (2 − 1)(3 − 1) = 1 ∗ 2 = 2
Based on our 2 degrees of freedom, our critical value from our table is 5.991.

The same formula for χ is used once again:
2
2
(0 − E)
2
χ =∑ (14.7.2)
E
2 2 2 2 2 2
(47 − 35.21) (26 − 25.38) (14 − 26.41) (21 − 32.79) (23 − 23.62) (37 − 24.59)
2
χ = + + + + +
35.21 25.38 26.41 32.79 23.62 24.59

The final decision for our test of independence is still based on our observed value (20.31) and our critical value (5.991). Because
our observed value is greater than our critical value, we can reject the null hypothesis.
Reject H . Based on our data from 168 people, we can say that there is a statistically significant relation between whether or not
0
someone watches college sports growing up and how much a college’s sports team factor in to that person’s decision on which
college to attend, χ (2) = 20.31, p < 0.05.
2
Effect Size for χ 2

Like all other significance tests, χ tests – both goodness-of-fit and tests for independence – have effect sizes that can and should
2
be calculated for statistically significant results. There are many options for which effect size to use, and the ultimate decision is
based on the type of data, the structure of your frequency or contingency table, and the types of conclusions you would like to
draw. For the purpose of our introductory course, we will focus only on a single effect size that is simple and flexible: Cramer’s V .
Cramer’s V is a type of correlation coefficient that can be computed on categorical data. Like any other correlation coefficient (e.g.
Pearson’s r), the cutoffs for small, medium, and large effect sizes of Cramer’s V are 0.10, 0.30, and 0.50, respectively. The
calculation of Cramer’s V is very simple:
−−−−−−−−
2
χ
V =√ (14.7.3)
N (k − 1)
For this calculation, k is the smaller value of either R (the number of rows) or C (the number of columns). The numerator is
simply the test statistic we calculate during step 3 of the hypothesis testing procedure. For our example, we had 2 rows and 3
columns, so k = 2 :

−−−−−−−− −−−−−−−−−
2
χ 20.38 −−−
−
V =√ =√ = √0.12 = 0.35
N (k − 1) 168(2 − 1)
So the statistically significant relation between our variables was moderately strong.

Campus)

14.E: Chi-square (Exercises)
1. What does a frequency table display? What does a contingency table display?
Answer:
Frequency tables display observed category frequencies and (sometimes) expected category frequencies for a single
categorical variable. Contingency tables display the frequency of observing people in crossed category levels for two
categorical variables, and (sometimes) the marginal totals of each variable level.
2. What does a goodness-of-fit test assess?

3. How do expected frequencies relate to the null hypothesis?
Answer:
Expected values are what we would observe if the proportion of categories was completely random (i.e. no consistent
difference other than chance), which is the same was what the null hypothesis predicts to be true.
4. What does a test-for-independence assess?

5. Compute the expected frequencies for the following contingency table:
Category A Category B
Category C 22 38
Category D 16 14
Answer:
Observed Category A Category B Total
rved Category C 22 38 60
rved Category D 16 14 30
rved Total 38 52 90
Expected Category A Category B Total
cted Category C ((60 ∗ 38)/90) = 25.33

∗
((60 52)/90) = 34.67 60
cted Category D ((30 ∗ 38)/90) = 12.67 ((30 ∗ 52)/90) = 17.33 30
cted Total 38 52 90
6. Test significance and find effect sizes (if significant) for the following tests:
1. N = 19, R = 3, C = 2, χ2(2) = 7.89, α = .05
2. N = 12, R = 2, C = 2, χ2(1) = 3.12, α = .05
3. N = 74, R = 3, C = 3, χ2(4) = 28.41, α = .01
7. You hear a lot of people claim that The Empire Strikes Back is the best movie in the original Star Wars trilogy, and you
decide to collect some data to demonstrate this empirically (pun intended). You ask 48 people which of the original
movies they liked best; 8 said A New Hope was their favorite, 23 said The Empire Strikes Back was their favorite, and
17 said Return of the Jedi was their favorite. Perform a chi-square test on these data at the .05 level of significance.
Answer:
Step 1: H : “There is no difference in preference for one movie”,
0 HA : “There is a difference in how many people
prefer one movie over the others.”
Step 2: 3 categories (columns) gives df =2 ,χ 2
crit
= 5.991 .
Step 3: Based on the given frequencies:

New Hope Empire Jedi Total
Observed 8 23 17 48
Expected 16 16 16
χ
2
= 7.13 .
Step 4: Our obtained statistic is greater than our critical value, reject H . Based on our sample of 48 people, there is a
0
statistically significant difference in the proportion of people who prefer one Star Wars movie over the others,
χ (2) = 7.13, p < .05 . Since this is a statistically significant result, we should calculate an effect size: Cramer’s
2
−−−−−−−−
7.13
V =√ = 0.27 , which is a moderate effect size.
48(3 − 1)
8. A pizza company wants to know if people order the same number of different toppings. They look at how many
pepperoni, sausage, and cheese pizzas were ordered in the last week; fill out the rest of the frequency table and test for
a difference.
Pepperoni Sausage Cheese Total
Observed 320 275 251
Expected
9. A university administrator wants to know if there is a difference in proportions of students who go on to grad school
across different majors. Use the data below to test whether there is a relation between college major and going to grad
school.
Major
Psychology Business Math
Yes 32 8 36
Graduate School
No 15 41 12
Answer:
Step 1: H : “There is no relation between college major and going to grad school”,
0 HA : “Going to grad school is
related to college major.”
Step 2: df =2 ,χ 2
crit
= 5.991 .
Step 3: Based on the given frequencies:
Major
Expected Values
Psychology Business Math
Yes 24.81 25.86 25.33

Graduate School
No 22.19 23.14 22.67
χ
2
= 2.09 + 12.34 + 4.49 + 2.33 + 13.79 + 5.02 = 40.05 .
Step 4: Obtained statistic is greater than the critical value, reject H . Based on our data, there is a statistically
0
significant relation between college major and going to grad school, χ (2) = 40.05, p < .05, Cramer’s V = 0.53,
2
which is a large effect
10. A company you work for wants to make sure that they are not discriminating against anyone in their promotion
process. You have been asked to look across gender to see if there are differences in promotion rate (i.e. if gender and
promotion rate are independent or not). The following data should be assessed at the normal level of significance:
Promoted in last two years?

Yes No
Women 8 5
Gender
Men 9 7

Downtown Campus)

Index
A E P
alternative hypothesis Effect Size Pearson's correlation
12.6: Effect Size 12.4: Pearson’s r
7.4: The Alternative Hypothesis
ANOVA Table pie chart
13.3: ANOVA Table
F 5.2: Probability in Graphs and Distributions
Form (Correlation) post hoc test
B 12.3: Three Characteristics
Bonferroni test S
H
hypothesis testing significance level
7.5: Critical values, p-values, and significance
C 7: Introduction to Hypothesis Testing
level
comorbid standard deviation
12.5: Anxiety and Depression
L
Covariance Line of Best Fit
13.1: Line of Best Fit
12.1: Variability and Covariance T
critical values Tukey’s Honest Significant Difference
7.5: Critical values, p-values, and significance M
level Magnitude (Correlation) (HSD)
12.3: Three Characteristics 11.8: Post Hoc Tests
D
Direction (Correlation) N V
12.3: Three Characteristics normal distribution Variability
4.1: Normal Distributions 3.3: Spread and Variability
variance
Glossary
Sample Word 1 | Sample Definition 1

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AN INTRODUCTION TO

This text was compiled on 02/18/2022

ABOUT THIS BOOK

1.1: WHAT ARE STATISTICS?

2: DESCRIBING DATA USING DISTRIBUTIONS AND GRAPHS

2.1: GRAPHING QUALITATIVE VARIABLES

3: MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY AND SPREAD

3.1: WHAT IS CENTRAL TENDENCY?

4: Z-SCORES AND THE STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

4.1: NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS

5.1: WHAT IS PROBABILITY

6.1: PEOPLE, SAMPLES, AND POPULATIONS

7: INTRODUCTION TO HYPOTHESIS TESTING

7.1: LOGIC AND PURPOSE OF HYPOTHESIS TESTING

8.1: THE T-STATISTIC

9.1: CHANGE AND DIFFERENCES

10: INDEPENDENT SAMPLES

11: ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE

11.1: OBSERVING AND INTERPRETING VARIABILITY

12.1: VARIABILITY AND COVARIANCE

13: LINEAR REGRESSION

13.1: LINE OF BEST FIT

14.1: CATEGORIES AND FREQUENCY TABLES

1.1: WHAT ARE STATISTICS?

What statistics are not

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Levels of an Independent Variable

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Discrete and Continuous Variables

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What level of measurement is used for psychological variables?

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Populations and samples

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Simple Random Sampling

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Sample size matters

More complex sampling

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4. Brazoria, TX 117 4. Springfield, IL 70

5. Lawton, OK 116 5. Jacksonville, TN 70

6. State College, PA 113 6. Gadsden, AL 70

1984 Joan Benoit USA 2:24:52

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goes from 1 to 4. Therefore,