Energy Conversion and Management 165 (2018) 8–24

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Energy Conversion and Management

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enconman

Techno-economic analysis of a solar photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) T

concentrator for building application in Sweden using Monte Carlo method
⁎
Yaxiu Gua, Xingxing Zhangb, , Jonn Are Myhrenb, Mengjie Hanb, Xiangjie Chenc, Yanping Yuand
a
Department of Building Environment and Energy Engineering, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China
b
School of Industrial Technology and Business Studies, Dalarna University, Falun 79188, Sweden
c
Department of Architecture and Built Environment, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK
d
School of Mechanical Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China

A R T I C LE I N FO A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The solar energy share in Sweden will grow up significantly in next a few decades. Such transition offers not only
PV/T great opportunity but also uncertainties for the emerging solar photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) technologies. This
Monte Carlo paper therefore aims to conduct a techno-economic evaluation of a reference solar PV/T concentrator in Sweden
Economic for building application. An analytical model is developed based on the combinations of Monte Carlo simulation
LCOE
techniques and multi energy-balance/financial equations, which takes into account of the integrated un-
NPV
certainties and risks of various variables. In the model, 11 essential input variables, i.e. average daily solar
Payback period
irradiance, electrical/thermal efficiency, prices of electricity/heating, operation & management (OM) cost, PV/T
capital cost, debt to equity ratio, interest rate, discount rate, and inflation rate, are considered, while the eco-
nomic evaluation metrics, such as levelized cost of energy (LCOE), net present value (NPV), and payback period
(PP), are primarily assessed. According to the analytical results, the mean values of LCOE, NPV and PP of the
reference PV/T connector are observed at 1.27 SEK/kW h (0.127 €/kW h), 18,812.55 SEK (1881.255 €) and
10 years during its 25 years lifespan, given the project size at 10.37 m2 and capital cost at 4482–5378 SEK/m2
(448.2–537.8 €/m2). The positive NPV indicates that the investment on the selected PV/T concentrator will be
profitable as the projected earnings exceeds the anticipated costs, depending on the NPV decision rule. The
sensitivity analysis and the parametric study illustrate that the economic performance of the reference PV/T
concentrator in Sweden is mostly proportional to solar irradiance, debt to equity ratio and heating price, but
disproportionate to capital cost and discount rate. Together with additional market analysis of PV/T technol-
ogies in Sweden, it is expected that this paper could clarify the economic situation of PV/T technologies in
Sweden and provide a useful model for their further investment decisions, in order to achieve sustainable and
low-carbon economics, with an expanded quantitative discussion of the real economic or policy scenarios that
may lead to those outcomes.

1. Introduction period of 2015 to 2040, rising by an average rate of 2.8%/year, in

which solar and wind will dominate growth in renewables [2]. In
1.1. Solar photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) technology Sweden, it has set up a goal of 100% renewable electricity in 2040 and
solar energy is planned to contribute 5–10% electricity generation,
Over the past 26 years, energy consumption in Sweden was almost comparing to today’s marginal level of less than 0.1% [3]. Along with
stable within the range of 46–53 Mtoe (Million Tonnes of Oil potential technological improvements, the Swedish government has
Equivalent) in comparison to the global energy consumption [1]. This is also published several strategies to support their future increased ap-
mainly owing to the fall in fossil fuel use, offset by slight increase in plications in solar field. For instance, the government introduces a
renewables. The renewable shares grew up gently at approximately ‘SOLROT’ deduction instead of investment support for individuals to
3.58%/year, ranging from 38% to 64% during the period from 1990 to facilitate the development of small and medium-sized solar plants in the
2016. When looking further ahead, it is projected that the renewables electricity market [3]. Such adjustment allows homeowners to receive
will be the continuous-growing sources of energy generation over the the corresponding compensation level faster. Other measures include

⁎
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: [email protected] (X. Zhang).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2018.03.043
Received 5 January 2018; Received in revised form 26 February 2018; Accepted 16 March 2018
Available online 21 March 2018
0196-8904/ © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Y. Gu et al. Energy Conversion and Management 165 (2018) 8–24

Nomenclature OM operation & maintenance cost, SEK

PP payback period, year
A area, m2 r discount rate,%
C cost, SEK S savings in year t, SEK
C0 capital cost, SEK ta temperature of surrounding air, °C
CF cash flow, SEK tm mean temperature, °C
dg degradation rate,% T time, year
DE debt to equity ratio,% Ta tax, SEK
E energy, kW h/year TR tax rate per kW h, SEK/kW h
EP electricity price, SEK/kW h
G daily solar irradiance per unit area, kW h/m2-day Greek
Gw solar irradiance per unit area, W/m2
HP heating price, SEK/kW h η efficiency, %
Ifr inflation rate,%
Itr interest rate,% Subscripts
I0 initial investment, SEK
j number of simulation trials e electricity
L loan cost, SEK et electricity in year t
LCOE levelized cost of energy, SEK/kW h t time in the unit of year
n number of life span th thermal
NPV net present value, SEK tht thermal energy in year t

the possibility of reducing tax rates for medium-sized plants, adjusting usually considered as a by-product in these PV/T types, and they must
energy taxes per plant instead of legal personality, and expanding ef- be coupled with heat pumps or boilers to upgrade temperature for
ficiency by reviewing building permit processes, waste management applications – this increases the overall system cost and limits the ap-
and spatial planning as well as support for electricity certificates for plication feasibility. On the other hand, PV/T concentrators have been
micro-production [3]. applied in Sweden for nearly 20 years [10,11] that can generate heat at
In recent years, the innovative hybrid solar photovoltaic/thermal temperature of up to 75 °C [11] and yearly-mean temperature of 40 °C
(PV/T) technology has emerged on the solar market, which can gen- in Sweden scenario, which are suitable for most building applications
erate both electrical and thermal energy simultaneously. Solar PV (such as hot water), through installation on ground, or integration with
modules usually can only output low energy per unit area at the effi- roof, wall, balcony or even windows in either new or existing buildings
ciency up to 22.5%, whereas the majority range from 14% to 16% ef- [11,12], as shown in Fig. 1. Moreover, PV/T concentrators are able of
ficiency in practice [4]. On the other hand, standalone solar thermal connecting with complex heating and mechanical systems, such as
collectors, consisting of heat exchangers, transform solar radiation to district heating system [13], desalting [14], industrial processing [15],
internal thermal energy of the transport medium. They usually generate waste heat recovery [16], solar cooling [17] and solar power generation
higher energy quantity per unit area at the energy efficiencies from [18] etc. These studies demonstrate that PV/T concentrators are more
40% to 85% depending on types of collectors (evacuate tube, glazed or capable to cope with complex systems and poor external operation
unglazed flat plate), but they have much lower energy quality at exergy conditions. This paper thus decided to select an existing PV/T con-
efficiencies from 2% to 3.9% [5]. To overcome these two inherent centrator in Sweden as the research objective for further investigation.
barriers, solar PV/T could become a potential solution since it combines
both electrical and thermal components in a single unit area to produce
1.2. Techno-economic evaluation techniques
electricity and heat simultaneously, leading a higher overall solar-en-
ergy conversion up to 94% than those standalone ones [6]. Moreover,
Owing to these advantages of PV/T technology, there are many
PV cells drop in energy efficiency with the rise in its operating tem-
researches now working on the techno-economic evaluations of various
perature. Harvesting the superfluous heat from PV cells in a compro-
PV/T types within different scenarios. Most of them firstly assessed the
mised way, depending on local operating conditions [7], can therefore
energy performances of dedicated PV/T in different climate regions,
increase the overall operating efficiency of PV cells and lead to the best
and then estimated the economic benefits by inputting the values of
performance of PV/T module [8]. For instance, thermal efficiency of
local economic factors, based on different modelling methods
PV/T is improved by adding glazing layer, while the PV efficiency de-
[15,19–23]. There are many economic performance indicators used by
creases in this case. A compromise in PV and thermal yields must be
investment professionals, such as LCOE (Levelized Cost of Energy)
considered to achieve the best operational performance of PV/T in
[15,19,23], NPV (Net Present Value) [24,25], EPBT (Energy Pay Back
practice. Other major benefits of PV/T modules include: (1) more ef-
Time) [26], ROI (Return on Investment) [25], BCR (Benefit to Cost
fective usage of the entire solar spectrum with PV and thermal com-
ratio) [27], IRR (Internal Rate of Return) [25], TCC (tolerable capital
ponents in one unit; (2) reduced installation cost and space, (3) de-
costs) [28], UCE (Unit Cost of Energy) [27], and simple /discounted PP
creasing the thermal load of whole building, and (4) better aesthetic
(Payback Period) [24,25,29,30]. Among these indicators, LCOE, NPV,
architectural integration than using two individual PV and thermal
and PP are found the most popular. By comparing the research results
collectors [9].
of different authors, it can be summarized for the PV/T technologies
PV/T technologies can be categorized into flat-plate and con-
that: (1) LCOE varies in the range of 0.06–0.12 €/kW h; (2) NPV is
centrated types, for different application purposes. The flat-plate PV/T
nearly €20,000 over a 25-year period; and (3) PP reaches about
modules are the mostly common ones, dominating current PV/T market
11 years in general. In addition to the variety of economic indicators,
worldwide. Although they are relatively affordable, there is very lim-
there is often a notable discrepancy in the economic impact factors,
ited application or research in Sweden [10]. This could be due to many
including tax, incentives, discount rate, inflation rate, fuel cost, elec-
reasons, but one of them could possibly be that in the circumstance of
tricity tariff, loan interest, time, location etc., which can cause con-
the extremely poor weather/operating conditions in Nordic area, heat is
siderable differences in the main economic performance and the

9
Y. Gu et al. Energy Conversion and Management 165 (2018) 8–24

Fig. 1. PV/T concentrators for potential building applications [11,12]

investment decisions, particularly as the PV prices have declined by clear and it is thus necessary to find feasible modelling solution to in-
about 50% from 2010 to 2015. crease the robustness of the economic estimations of PV/T technology.
During these studies, only a few researchers considered the present Monte Carlo method is an effective solution to this challenge, which
values of both costs and saving, while the rest only consider the present is a relatively simple and established technique for involving un-
value of costs. Also in most cases, LCOE is only calculated using point certainty and risk in quantitative models. In a Monte Carlo model, a
(non-connected/non-integrated) values for all inputs, ignoring the in- calculation is performed many times, and each set of input parameters
tegrated uncertainty for investment decision. Currently, the key simu- is chosen randomly from pre-defined distributions for each estimation
lation engines for the economic analysis of PV/T are either commer- [33]. This, on the other hand, leads to the limitation of this method that
cialized energy-performance modelling software, such as TRNSYS the tails of output distributions are very sensitive to the input dis-
[19,31], MATLAB [21], IES-VE [25], or the self-developed analytical tributions and the method sometimes requires significant trials of cal-
models [29]. Although these studies have suitably used the main eco- culation to complete the converge. Currently, there are seldom eco-
nomic performance indicators as the objectives, most of them used nomic studies of PV/T using the Monte Carlo method, even though this
simplified economic models to estimate the economic-performance of method has been applied in standalone PV and solar thermal fields for
PV/T, which are usually too optimistic by only considering a limited many years. For instance, Heck et al. [33] conducted a Monte Carlo
series of input variables and ignoring the inherent integrated un- analysis of the LCOE probability distributions for the costs of major
certainty of each variable [32], resulting in a certain disagreement generation technologies (such as PV and solar thermal), rather than the
comparing to real cases. The sensitivities of different variables to the usual point values. They indicated that the Monte Carlo approach is
economic-performance of PV/T in various operation conditions are not only slightly more complex than using point values, but provides more

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Y. Gu et al. Energy Conversion and Management 165 (2018) 8–24

realistic information about risk and uncertainty, and enables more this limitation by considering a variety of scenarios in proportion to
useful analysis of potential investments in electricity generation. Dufo- their likelihood. This produces a probability distribution of different
López et al. [34] optimised the energy supply at off-grid healthcare outcomes for the main economic performance indicators, i.e. LCOE,
facilities (PV–diesel–battery systems) using Monte Carlo simulation. NPV, and PP, providing a more accurate projection as a result [33].
Their research method included a probabilistic optimisation by means Upon to now, there is no research specifically addressing the economic
of Monte Carlo simulation, in order to consider the uncertainties in the evaluation of PV/T concentrators in Swedish scenario. There are still
renewable sources and in the load profiles, which allowed stochastic critical challenges for solar PV/T development in Sweden, such as un-
optimisation of complex hybrid systems with a high level of accuracy in clear market size/position, application locations with appropriate solar
the modelling of the system. Meschede et al. [35] assessed the prob- irradiance levels, unknown pricing/policy impact & economic perfor-
abilistic distributed factors influencing renewable energy supply (i.e. mance and weak development strategy etc.
PV) for hotels using Monte-Carlo methods, by considering the effect of This paper therefore aims to fill in these research gaps, through a
weather and occupancy fluctuations on the sensitivity of investment techno-economic evaluation of a reference solar PV/T concentrator in
criteria. They found that the results are sensitive to weather fluctua- Sweden. An analytical model is developed based on the combinations of
tions as well as economic parameters to about the same degree, and the Monte Carlo simulation techniques and multi energy-balance/financial
Monte Carlo method helps to define the mean of the annuity more equations, which takes into account of the inherent uncertainties and
precisely and to rate the risk of fluctuating weather and occupancy risks of various variables. In the model, 11 essential input variables, i.e.
better. Rezvani et al. [36] conducted a techno-economic and reliability average daily solar irradiance, electrical/thermal efficiency, prices of
assessment of solar water heaters in Australia based on Monte Carlo electricity/heating, operation & management (OM) cost, PV/T capital
analysis. They concluded that solar water heaters could offer sig- cost, debt to equity, interest rate, discount rate, and inflation rate, are
nificantly better long-term economic viability compared to conven- considered and the economic evaluation metrics, such as LCOE, NPV
tional systems at moderate auxiliary energy consumptions. and PP, are primarily assessed. Together with additional market ana-
lysis of PV/T technologies in Sweden, it is expected that this paper
1.3. Motivation and novelty could, to some extent, clarify the economic situation of PV/T technol-
ogies in Sweden, and provide useful model and information for the
It is demonstrated from above studies that Monte Carlo method can decision-makings of capital-intensive long-term investment of PV/T in
add the availability of performing stochastic analysis to the existing building sector.
simulation approach. In the existing studies, most evaluations of LCOE,
NPV and PP of PV/T have not yet considered the uncertainty due to 2. Market analysis of PV/T in Sweden
each input variable, giving only an “optimal performance” value that
often offers relative optimism in a capital-intensive long-term invest- It is likely that the economic results would be different if the study
ment. This is because the input variables, such as capital cost, fuel were performed in another country or even in the same country today,
prices, variable operation and maintenance, are affected by numerous as costs, tariffs, and policies are changing. To make an accurate as-
factors that can change the value of these inputs dramatically. In most sessment, it is necessary to clarify the local policies and market struc-
existing models, researchers usually used the most-likely (average) tures [37].
values for an input, while Monte Carlo method is capable of overcoming Currently, the Sweden’s market for solar energy is very small.
Nevertheless, the installation rate of PV continues to increase. In 2016,
a total of 79.2 MWp were installed, showing the annual PV market grew
with 63% as compared to the 48.4 MWp installed in 2015. For the PV
market, the off-grid PV application accounts for a very small share, with
only 1.5 MWp installed in 2016; while the market for grid-connected PV
systems has grown rapidly in Sweden, with 77.7 MWp systems installed
in 2016 [38], as observed in Fig. 2. Various market segments of the
yearly installed PV capacity in Sweden are illustrated. There has been a
clear shift from a market dominated by off-grid systems to a grid-con-
nected market, in which the grid-connected distributed PV systems
dominates the market, mainly due to the tax law for large centralized
PV systems. A new policy, published on July 2017, a 98% tax reduction
on PV systems over 255 kWp has further removed the major economic
barriers of PV generation systems – this will be the main source of in-
crease of PV market. Under the new policy, the tax would be reduced
from SEK 0.295 (0.0295 €)1 per kW h to SEK 0.005 (0.0005 €) per kW h
[39]. The total cumulative PV capacity installed in Sweden was ap-
proximately 205.5 MWp by the end of 2016. The cumulative PV market
grew with 63% under 2016, which is in line with the marked devel-
opment over the last five years where the cumulative market has grown
with 52%, 83%, 84%, 62% and 63%, respectively. The strong overall
growth in recent years started with the introduction of the direct capital
subsidy system in 2006, and has then been fuelled by the declining
system prices, high popularity among the public, a growing interest
from utilities and an ongoing reformation work from the Government to
simplify the rules for micro producers [38]. According to International
Energy Outlook [2], solar energy in Sweden is expected to contribute
5–10% to electricity generation in 2040, which means the share of solar
Fig. 2. (a) annual installed PV capacity in Sweden from 1993 to 2016; (b) various market
segments' share of the yearly installed capacity in Sweden [38] 1
1 SEK equals 0.1 euro approximately on 25 January 2018.

11
Y. Gu et al. Energy Conversion and Management 165 (2018) 8–24

electricity production within the total power generation mix will rise solar thermal market. Other barriers are the lower prices of alternative
from 0.1% in 2016 to 5–10% in 2040, which is up to 100 times of energy technologies and the lack of information on solar heating sys-
current solar power capacity if the total electricity generation remain tems among actors and consumers. In general, the Swedish solar
stable as past decades. However, the PV market in Sweden is still re- thermal market is disruptive. It has to face high competition from al-
lying much on subsidies, and the PV system prices must continue to go ternative energy systems, but with limited indirect policy support.
down, or the electricity prices to go up if PV needs to contribute to an Great barriers are found for its further development.
appreciable part of the Swedish electricity generation mix. Moreover, Technology drivers offer opportunities for disruptive market in-
the Swedish PV market is becoming broader as more and more players novation [42]. The innovative PV/T technology cogenerates of elec-
with other core businesses, such as utilities and real estate owners, are tricity and heat from the same area, but with less installation cost than
taking an increasing interest in the PV market. A high competition on installing both individual PV and solar thermals collector, resulting in
PV market will be expected in the near future. the lower overall cost-to-performance ratio and enabling the possible
The Swedish solar thermal market is decreasing significantly from development of solar thermal market along with the growing PV
2011. The total number of the installed solar thermal collectors in 2016 market. As a result, it offers opportunities for innovation in Swedish
was only about 2823, nearly half of the installed capacity in 2015. The solar thermal market. Meanwhile, PV/T technology lowers the energy
budget was about €1 million annually, while PV started out much price per square meter, reducing the dependence degree of PV on
higher, at €5 to €10 million per year. The whole solar thermal market governmental subsidy and thus making the target set by the govern-
faces increasing competition with other energy technologies, such as ment achievable [43,44]. Because PV market is shifting to the grid-
biomass boilers, district heating, heat pumps, solar PV. It seems as if not connected distributed systems, and solar thermal market is indirectly
even the rather high national carbon tax can reinvigorate the country’s driven by national codes for low-energy buildings and nearly zero-en-
solar heat market. Typical solar thermal products in Sweden are flat ergy buildings, it is expected that the Swedish PV/T market will expand
plate and vacuum tubes collectors, while the concentrated solar thermal mostly in building sector. However, in order to achieve the success of
plants and PV/T products are very rare. Their application includes the PV/T market innovation in Sweden, it is desired to clarify investment
fields of hot water and space heating, in operation with other energy risks, to propose new investing models, to set appropriate price of PV/T
system in the meanwhile. The market price of flat plate collectors has products, and to evaluate operate strategies of players, which are still
dropped in line with the overall development of collector prices across not clear and are challenging the market penetration.
Europe, while vacuum tube collectors have become more expensive
owing to less and less players in the area. About half of the market is
3. Development of techno-economic model
now being served by local manufacturers, according to the country
portrait [40]. IEA SHC [41] point out that the main market drivers are
This section will develop a techno-economic model by considering
the national building code and indirect tax deduction for repair, con-
the present values of both electricity and heating savings from PV/T
version and extension work can be made for installing solar heating
concentrator as part of the cash flow. A PV/T concentrator (X10 PVT)
systems. In contrast to PV market, there is no direct financial support to
from a Swedish company [11] is used as a reference for application in

Fig. 3. Flow chart of techno-economic analysis method.

12
Y. Gu et al. Energy Conversion and Management 165 (2018) 8–24

buildings, where both electricity and heating supplies are needed. As receiver, the PV component is composed of 166 mono-crystalline solar
compared to the conventional PV and solar thermal devices, PV/T cells in series with the size of each cell at 32 × 110 mm. The thermal
concentrators have plenty of advantages for the application in buildings component is structured in triangular with a double aluminium section
as discussed in the introduction, i.e. higher electrical conversion effi- bar substrate. Each bar is built in with a fluid channel for counter
ciency, more energy output per unit area, efficient use of the building current flow. On the two receiver sides, opposite to the parabolic
space, larger acceptance angle and higher optical efficiency [45,46]. concentrator, there are laser groove buried contact solar cells on the
The selected PV/T concentrator produces more energy per unit area surface; whereas the top side of the receiver is covered with a thermal
than typical PV and solar thermal collectors in a limited building ap- absorber. The whole PV/T concentrator has a gross area of 10.91 m2
plication space, and could achieve up to 75 °C heat output (with yearly- and an aperture area of 10.37 m2. The tracking of the sun is based on
average temperature at about 40 °C) in Swedish scenario [11,47], special electrical custom-designed high quality linear actuator, which is
suiting for most hot water application in buildings. It is also feasible for carried out by rotating the structure around an axis oriented in the
low-concentration PV/T, such as the reference one, to be integrated east–west direction.
with buildings without tracking system, which further lowers down the According to the technical bulletin provided by the manufacturer
cost-to-performance ratio (cost per unit energy output) of PV/T con- [49,50], the nominal efficiencies of the selected PV/T concentrator are
centrator [48], making it more promising for application in buildings. 9.62% ( ± 5%) for electrical performance and 47.21–54.80% for
The overall techno-economic modelling method is illustrated in Fig. 3. thermal performance, under the operational temperature differences
between thermal medium (tm) and surrounding air (ta) from 0 to 70 °C.
The yearly-average output temperature is about 40 °C and the stagna-
3.1. Reference PV/T concentrator tion temperature is high to 243 °C with the maximum operation pres-
sure at around 1 MPa. The effective thermal capacity is almost 6.11 kJ/
The reference PV/T technology is a concentrated type (named X10) m2-K. The thermal efficiency as function of the average operation
and Fig. 4 illustrates its basic configurations. The X10 PV/T consists of a temperature (tm) and the external operation conditions is expressed as
cylinder-parabolic reflecting mirror, made by aluminium, that con- η = 0.548–0.849(tm − ta)/AGw − 0.003(tm − ta)2/AGw, with the flow
centrates 17.8 times the solar light onto the receiver. Inside the

Fig. 4. (a) overall stracture of X10 PV/T; (b) cross section of receiver; (c) dimension of concentrator [49,51].

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Y. Gu et al. Energy Conversion and Management 165 (2018) 8–24

mass rage at 0.01 kg/s-m2. In practice, the performance of the PV/T Lt is the financing loan cost in year t, including annual loan payment
concentrator maybe reply on many factors of the thermal side of the and interest SEK.
project. However, in order to evaluate the economic performance of the Tat is the tax paid for the electricity generation in the year t, SEK
selected concentrator at current stage with the limited practical data, it OMt is the operating & management cost in year t, SEK.
is a common and cost-effective way to estimate the economic perfor-
mance using the nominal efficiencies for initial decision. In above equation, the investment expenditure for the first year is de-
fined by
3.2. Energy generation model
I0 = C0 × (1−DE ) (6)

The energy generation model is simplified by only considering the where

impact from three essential variables, i.e. solar radiation and electrical/
thermal efficiencies, and the concentrator performance degradation C0 is the capital cost, SEK.
over the operating time. The energy generation from PV/T concentrator DE is the debt to equity ratio, %.
is expressed by equations from (1-3).
The financing loan cost in year t, Lt, is given as below equation
Et = Eet + Etht (1)
1 t
Eet = (365 × Gt × ηe × A) × (1−dge )t (2) Lt = C0 × DE × ⎡ + ⎛1− ⎞ × Itrt ⎤
⎣n ⎝ n⎠ ⎦ (7)
Etht = (365 × Gt × ηth × A) × (1−dgth)t (3) where
where
Itrt is the interest rate of year t, %.
Et is the total energy generated by the PV/T concentrator in the year
t, kW h/year. And the tax is written by Eq. (8)
Eet is the nominal electricity generated by the PV/T concentrator, Tat = TR × Eet (8)
kW h/year.
Etht is the nominal thermal energy generated by the PV/T con- where
centrator, kW h/year.
A is the effective collecting area of PV/T concentrator, m2. TR is the tax rate per kW h, SEK/kW h.
Gt is the average daily solar irradiation in the year t, kW h/m2-day.
ηe is the total concentrator electrical efficiency, %. NPV is defined by Eq. (9), which is a measurement of cumulative
ηth is the total concentrator thermal efficiency, %. profit calculated by subtracting the present values of cash outflows
dge and dgth are respectively the degradations of electrical and (including initial cost) from the present values of cash inflows over the
thermal parts of the PV/T concentrator, %. PV/T concentrator’s life time. NPV can be either involved only a single
t is the index of time in the unit of number of year, starting from year investment alternative or used to compare competing investment pro-
‘0’. jects. In this paper, we use NPV to evaluate a single investment whether
is acceptable or not [51]. A positive NPV indicates that the projected
3.3. Economical evaluation metrics earnings, generated by a project or investment, exceeds the anticipated
costs. In general, an investment with a positive NPV will be a profitable
LCOE weights the overall unit energy costs of establishing and op- one and the higher NPV means higher benefits. This concept is the basis
erating an energy system throughout its entire life. All costs factors, for the NPV decision rule, which dictates that the only investments that
such as fuel, financing, incentives, taxes, operational costs and de- should be made are those with positive NPV values.
gradation, should be considered in levelized cost calculations. n−1
CFt
Especially for the PV/T concentrator, LCOE serves a standardized me- NPV = −C0 + ∑ (1 + r )t
tric by combining two disparate energy flows into one bottom-line t=0 (9)
metric, so that it can adequately compare energy costs of diverse gen- where
eration sources. The mathematical equations for LCOE is given in Eq.
(4) [19]. CFt is the cash flow of the year t, SEK.
n−1
Ct
∑ (1 + r )t
The cash flow in year t is given by Eq. (10)
t=0
LCOE = n−1 CFt = Set + Stht −Ct (10)
Et
∑ (1 + r )t In addition, the energy savings are respectively from electricity and
t=0 (4)
heating
where
Set = EPt × Ifrt × Eet (11)
n is the number of year in terms of the concentrator’s lifetime.
Stht = HPt × Ifrt × Etht (12)
Ct is the total cost in the year of t, SEK.
r is the discount rate, %. where

While the total cost of the PV/T concentrator in the specific year could EPt is the electricity price in year t, SEK/kW h.
be expressed by HPt is the heating price in year t, SEK/kW h.
Ifrt is the inflation rate of year t, %.
Ct = (I0 |t = 0) + Lt + OMt + Tat (5)
where PP is the time in year for a project to break even or recover its initial
investment funds, where the cash flow starts to turn positive. If PP is
I0 is the investment expenditures in the initial year, SEK. larger than the life-span of the reference PV/T concentrator, it is

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Y. Gu et al. Energy Conversion and Management 165 (2018) 8–24

considered that PP equals 26 in this case. ⎡ (LCOE

1 NPV 1 PP1) ⎤
PP = T(CFt > 0) ⎢ (LCOE 2 NPV 2 PP 2) ⎥
(13) ⎢ ⎥
⎢⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⎥
⎢ j NPV j PP j ) ⎥
⎣ (LCOE ⎦
3.4. Key input variables
= Monte Carlo model
The key input variables for the analysis of the reference PV/T ⎛ ⎡ (S1 ηe1 ηth1 EP1 HP1 OM1 C01 DE1 Itr 1 r 1 Ifr 1) ⎞ ⎤
concentrator are categorized into technical, financial, and geographical ⎜ ⎢ (S 2 ⎥
ηe1 ηth1 EP 2 HP 2 OM 2 C02 DE 3 Itr 4 r 5 Ifr 6) ⎟ ⎥
ones. Table 1 displayed the basic variables that are included in the ⎜⎢ ⎟⎥
⎢⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮
analytical model, in which, the possible values of each variable are ⎜⎢ ⎟⎥
⎜ Sj ηej ηthj EP j HP j OM j C0j DE j Itr j r j Ifr j ⎟ ⎥ (14)
estimated with relevant probabilities while assuming the variable fol- ⎝⎣ ⎠⎦
lows a continuous probability distribution. For instance, the average
where
daily irradiation in a specific location of Sweden is assumed to fit with
the continuous probability distribution curve. Taking Stockholm as an
j is the number of simulation trials.
example, the average daily solar irradiation varies between 0.25 kW h/
m2–day to 5.93 kW h/m2–day from January to December, and the mean
of the annual average daily irradiation is 2.87 kW h/m2-day, so the 3.5. Simulation process
average daily solar irradiation could be then defined to follow the
continuous probability distribution, ranging between minimum and The Monte Carlo analytical model is developed upon Crystal Ball,
maximum values given in Table 1 and the highest probability at the which is a leading spreadsheet-based application for predictive mod-
mean value. As a result, it is possible to further run the probabilistic elling, forecasting, simulation, and optimization. It offers unparalleled
analysis using Monte Carlo simulation, conducting different combina- insight into the critical factors affecting risk so that the decision-makers
tions that follow the probability curves of different variables. can make the right tactical decisions [58]. In this model, the variables
The average cost for the whole reference PV/T concentrator (in- mentioned above were defined as the triangular probability distribution
cluding other indirect cost, such as installation, admin charges, system due to the limited data of the parameters, ranging between minimum
components, etc.,) is around 4500 SEK/m2 (450 €/m2), with up to 20% and maximum given in Table 1 and the highest probability at the mean
price-floating range. There are different ways to finance the PV/T value. A range of values for assumptions was randomly generated.
concentrators, for instance, a loan from a bank is possible at the levels These inputs were then feed into formulas of evaluation metrics defined
of 0%, 60%, 80% and 90% of the capital investment (Debt to equity). in forecast cells. This was repeated for a large number of combinations
Meanwhile, the associated interest rate varies from 2% to 6% de- of parameters (10,000 trials in this work). After simulation, it explored
pending on the loan’s option (flexible or fixed) and duration. The OM ranges of outcomes, expressed as graphical forecasts, in order to exam
cost of a PV/T varies in different cases. For instance, Kalogirou and the sensitivity/reliability of various input variables, and to estimate the
Tripanagnostopoulos [52] and Herrando and Markides [29] estimated probability/certainty of different economic evaluation metrics [58].
at 1% of total system cost by considering parasitic costs with an in-
crease rate of 1% per year of the system operation due to the required 4. Results and discussion
energy for circulate system pump. Riggs et al. [15] reported that OM
costs for PV part and thermal part of a PV/T concentrator are respec- 4.1. Sensitivity and reliability analysis
tively at 6.5 USD/kWelec (51.41 SEK/kWelec) and 15 USD/kWtherm
(118.64 SEK/kWelec) during its life time. By referring to these figures, A sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the sensitivity of the
the OM cost to capital cost for the reference PV/T concentrator is about variations in input variables to the evaluation metrics (LCOE, NPV, and
1.36%. In this paper, depending on the reference PV/T concentrator’s PP), as displayed in Fig. 5. Stockholm was taken as a basic example for
company [11], the OM cost is assumed in the range from 0.75% to 2% application of the reference PV/T concentrator. The default forecast
of the capital cost, which covers the ratios (1% and 1.36%) mentioned
above. The regular labour cost for OM is not considered as the reference Table 1
PV/T concentrator is a standalone system. Basic thermal OM (such as Key input parameters and their ranges for the simulation model.
plumbing, pump power, etc.) and electrical OM (such as inverter re-
Description Mean Min Max Unit
placement, control, etc.) are taken into account. Mirror cleaning costs
are retained within the OM costs but the reduced power output due to Geographical parameters
maintenance downtime is not included in the model. Further, there are Average daily solar irradiance in 2.87 0.25 5.93 kW h/m2-
a variety of business models for smaller scale installations, in which the Stockholm [53] day
Electricity price [54] 1.94 1.54 2.09 SEK/kW h
installer covers system specific maintenance. This also increases the Heating price [55] 0.80 0.45 1.02 SEK/kW h
variation extent of OM cost. Over the past 10 years, both electricity Technical parameters
price and oil & gas increased a lot, so it is also important to consider the Effective PV/T area [50] 10.37 – – m2
inflation rate of both electricity and heating prices depending on the Years of operation [11] 25 – – years
STC nominal electrical efficiency 9.62 9.14 10.08 %
general inflation rate in the range of -1.6% to 4.4%. The normal de-
[49,50]
preciation of solar energy panel is estimated at 25 years. Nominal thermal efficiency [50] 51.52 47.21 54.80 %
By considering the tornado analysis done by Riggs et al., [15] and Nominal degradation rate [15] 1.00 – – %/year
the scenarios in Sweden, there will be 11 essential input variables Financial Parameters
considered in this paper, for further sensitivity analysis, which are: Capital product cost (include 4482.00 3586.00 5378.00 SEK/m2
indirect cost) [11]
daily solar irradiance (S), electrical/thermal efficiency (ηe/ηth), prices of Debt to equity [11,15] 60.00 0.00 90.00 %
electricity/heating (EP/HP), OM cost (OM), concentrator capital cost Interest rate [11,15] 4.00 2.00 6.00 %/year
(C0), debt to equity ratio (DE), interest rate (Itr), discount rate (r), and Loan term [11,15] 25.00 – – years
inflation rate (Ifr). These variables are either affecting largely the result Effective tax [39] 0.01 – – SEK/kW h
Nominal discount rate [11,56] 8.00 6.00 10.00 %/year
or are rather uncertain, and their effect on the results are expected.The
OM to capital product cost [11,15] 1.00 0.75 2.00 %/year
total evaluation strategy in the Monte Carlo model is expressed by Inflation rate [57] 1.20 −1.60 4.40 %/year
input-output vector in Eq. (14)

15
Y. Gu et al. Energy Conversion and Management 165 (2018) 8–24

to the other cases (about 11 years) reviewed in Section 2. There is

around 80.92% possibility for this PV/T concentrator to have a PP less
than 15 years. However, there is nearly 12% high risk for the PP over
the concentrator’s operation life span of 25 years.
Fig. 6 demonstrates the sensitivity of different variables to different
output values. It is found that the main parameters that determine a
positive outcome of business case are average daily solar irradiance,
concentrator capital cost, heating price, debt to equity ratio and dis-
count rate. The average daily solar irradiance accounts for approxi-
mately 91.85%, 91.12% and 84.60% of the values of LCOE, NPV and
PP, respectively. It is therefore considered as the most important as-
sumption in the model since it determines energy generation and sav-
ings of the whole concentrator system. The concentrator capital cost
also influences all the three evaluation metrics: 3.64% to LCOE, 1.97%
to NPV and 3.00% to PP, since it contributes directly to the annual
savings and cash flow. The debt to equity ratio is another important
factor that strongly connected with the initial investment and the as-
sociated annual cost/cash flow; so it affects the outputs too, con-
tributing 1.85% impact to LCOE, and 7.71% to PP. Heating price also
influences NPV and PP to an extent of 4.85% and 4.08% respectively.
This is because the magnitude of heat generation is relative larger,
comparing to electricity generation, and thus the product of heat output
and heating price contributes largely to the cash flow. In addition, the
discount rate has slight impact on LCOE while the rest variables are not
so important and their impacts on the final output are so limited and
that can be ignored.
Additional comparison is also carried out between two cases using
different analytical methods: case (1) Monte Carlo method (Monte
Carlo case) and (2) average point value method (Normal case). In the
Monte Carlo case, it considers the probability distribution of each input
variable and predicts the mean values of output metrics in a certain
range. In the Normal case, it applies the average point value of each
input variable and calculates the average values of output metrics.
Table 2 displays the estimation results of the Normal case, and Fig. 7
compares the two cases in parallel. It is seen that in the Normal case,
the economic performance are too optimistic, where LCOE is calculated
at 1.05 SEK/kW h (0.105 €/kW h) while NPV and PP are respectively
estimated at 22,973.84 SEK (2,297.384 €) and 5 years. However, cur-
rent Swedish PV/T market is very poor, mainly because of the weak
practical economic benefits of PV/T. The results shown in the Normal
case are in great disagreement to real situation. In the Normal case, the
analysis neglects the inherent uncertainty in the investment and thus
overestimates the economic benefits from PV/T. On the contrast, the
analysis in Monte Carlo case chose the input parameters randomly from
Fig. 5. Frequency forecast chart of (a) LCOE, (b) NPV, and (c) PP. pre-defined distributions for each input variable and performed the
calculation for 10,000 times, whose results seem more realistic by
views are shown as the samples’ count of values (the frequency) for providing more realistic information about risk and uncertainty.
each interval on the x-axis. In Fig. 5 (a), the mean value of LCOE is
observed at 1.27 SEK/kW h (0.127 €/kW h). The LCOE value that oc- 4.2. Optimization analysis
curred the most frequently is at around 0.80 SEK/kW h, which has a
probability of around 6.5%, meaning that there is a 6.5% chance of In order to measure the potential impact of each important variable
LCOE values falling near this value. There is about 88.65% probability mentioned above, such as average daily solar irradiance, debt to equity,
of LCOE values falling between 0.30 and 2 SEK/kW h. Comparing to the heating price, concentrator capital price, and discounted rate, this
LCOE of other PV/T systems reviewed in Section 2 (0.06–0.12 €/kW h section will use the existing model and the nominal efficiencies/data to
or 0.6–1.2 SEK/kW h), the mean LCOE of X10 PV/T is more closed to predict the values of LCOE, NPV and PP, by changing the value of each
the upper limit owing to the much less energy generation and lower important variable in a certain range when keeping the others as the
energy saving benefits in Sweden. Similarly in Fig. 5(b), the reference same assumptions. The simulation results are expected to be useful in
concentrator has the mean NPV value of 18,812.55 SEK (1,881.255 €) further marketing positioning and penetration of the reference PV/T
after 25 years operation, and there is nearly 74.91% probability for this from the points of views of marketing location, financial measures and
PV/T concentrator to achieve positive NPV (valuable investment) when governmental tariffs.
it is operated in Sweden. According to the NPV decision rule, the po-
sitive NPV indicates that the investment on the selected PV/T con- 4.2.1. Impact of average daily solar irradiance
centrator will be highly-likely profitable as the projected earnings ex- When keeping the other assumptions the same, increasing only the
ceeds the anticipated costs. The mean PP, displayed in Fig. 5(c), is average daily solar irradiance from 0.5 to 6.5 kW h/m2-day in the ex-
nearly 10 years when the cash flow turns positive, which is equivalent isting model, the impact of the average daily solar irradiance is illu-
strated in Fig. 8. In this case, only the average daily solar irradiance

16
Y. Gu et al. Energy Conversion and Management 165 (2018) 8–24

Fig. 6. Sensitivity and Tornado charts of (a) LCOE, (b) NPV and (c) PP.

data is considered as the fixed value under each simulation running, showing downwards power trend (y = 23.057x−0.933; R2 = 0.9976).
instead of the triangular distribution, but other 10 key input variables PP is estimated over 25 years when the average daily solar irradiance is
are still assumed as the triangular distributions. Increasing the average lower than 1.5 kW h/m2-day, and it achieves minimum 2.52 years when
daily solar irradiance increases NPV and reduces LCOE and PP. NPV the average daily solar irradiance is at 6.5 kW h/m2-day. Such results
increases from −35,068.77 SEK (−3506.877 €) to 102,639.38 SEK can be interpreted that higher solar irradiance leads to more total
(10,263.938 €) with increasing solar irradiance in a purely linear way electricity/heat generation, and thus increases the related economic
(y = 11497x–46567; R2 = 1), and NPV starts to turn positive after the savings and NPV while decreasing LCOE and PP.
average daily solar irradiance is greater than about 2.10 kW h/m2-day. The average daily solar irradiance has a significant impact on all the
LCOE falls down significantly at the beginning when the average daily economic indexes; the higher solar irradiance, the better business out-
solar irradiance starts to increase but then it drops gradually when solar comes. The appropriate places for operating the reference PV/T con-
irradiance becomes larger, presenting a downwards power trend centrator are suggested to have the average daily solar irradiance
(y = 5.8109x−0.999, R2 = 1) from 5.81 SEK/kW h (0.581 €/kW h) to greater than 2.40 kW h/m2-day (876 kW h/m2-year) at least, in order to
0.45 SEK/kW h (0.045€/kW h). PP varies in a similar way to LCOE, also achieve positive NPV and low LCOE of 1.20 SEK/kW h (0.12 €/kW h)

17
 Table 2
The estimated results of Normal case using average point value method.
Y. Gu et al.

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Cost saving from energy generation

Electricity 1030.97 1020.66 1010.46 1000.35 990.35 980.45 970.64 960.94 951.33 941.81 932.39 923.07 913.84
generation
Heat generation 5521.39 5466.18 5411.52 5357.40 5303.83 5250.79 5198.28 5146.30 5094.84 5043.89 4993.45 4943.51 4894.08
Electricity savings 1950.33 1953.99 1934.45 1915.11 1895.96 1877.00 1858.23 1839.65 1821.25 1803.04 1785.01 1767.16 1749.49
Heating savings 4417.11 4425.42 4381.16 4337.35 4293.98 4251.04 4208.53 4166.44 4124.78 4083.53 4042.70 4002.27 3962.25
TOTAL ENERGY 6552.37 6486.84 6421.98 6357.76 6294.18 6231.24 6168.92 6107.24 6046.16 5985.70 5925.84 5866.59 5807.92
GENERATION
TOTAL ENERGY 6367.44 6379.41 6315.62 6252.46 6189.94 6128.04 6066.76 6006.09 5946.03 5886.57 5827.70 5769.43 5711.73
SAVING

Cost of operation & maintenance and Tax

OM cost 464.78 464.78 464.78 464.78 464.78 464.78 464.78 464.78 464.78 464.78 464.78 464.78 464.78
Tax for electricity 5.15 5.10 5.05 5.00 4.95 4.90 4.85 4.80 4.76 4.71 4.66 4.62 4.57
TOTAL 469.94 469.89 469.84 469.79 469.74 469.69 469.64 469.59 469.54 469.49 469.45 469.40 469.35

Financial cost
Loan payment 1115 1115 1115 1115 1115 1115 1115 1115 1115 1115 1115 1115 1115
Loan interest 1115 1071 1026 982 937 892 848 803 759 714 669 625 580
TOTAL 2230.96 2186.34 2141.72 2097.10 2052.48 2007.86 1963.25 1918.63 1874.01 1829.39 1784.77 1740.15 1695.53

Discounted cash flow and energy generation

Net Profit −14924.79 3723.19 3704.06 3685.57 3667.72 3650.49 3633.88 3617.88 3602.48 3587.69 3573.49 3559.88 3546.85
Discounted Cost 21292.23 2656.23 2611.56 2566.89 2522.22 2477.55 2432.88 2388.21 2343.55 2298.88 2254.21 2209.55 2164.88
Discounted Energy 6067.01 6006.34 5505.81 5046.99 4626.41 4240.88 3887.47 3563.51 3266.55 2994.34 2744.81 2516.08 2306.40
Generation

18
Cash flow −14924.79 −11201.61 −7497.55 −3811.97 −144.25 3506.24 7140.11 10757.99 14360.47 17948.16 21521.65 25081.53 28628.38

Evaluation metrics
Net Present Value 22,973.84 SEK (2297.384 €)
LCOE 1.05 SEK/kW h (0.105 €/kW h)
Payback period c.a. 5.0 Year

Year 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Cost saving from energy generation

Electricity 904.70 895.65 886.70 877.83 869.05 860.36 851.76 843.24 834.81 826.46 818.20 810.01
generation
Heat generation 4845.14 4796.69 4748.72 4701.23 4654.22 4607.68 4561.60 4515.99 4470.83 4426.12 4381.86 4338.04
Electricity savings 1731.99 1714.67 1697.52 1680.55 1663.74 1647.11 1630.63 1614.33 1598.19 1582.20 1566.38 1550.72
Heating savings 3922.62 3883.40 3844.56 3806.12 3768.06 3730.38 3693.07 3656.14 3619.58 3583.39 3547.55 3512.08
TOTAL ENERGY 5749.84 5692.34 5635.42 5579.06 5523.27 5468.04 5413.36 5359.23 5305.64 5252.58 5200.05 5148.05
GENERATION
TOTAL ENERGY 5654.62 5598.07 5542.09 5486.67 5431.80 5377.48 5323.71 5270.47 5217.77 5165.59 5113.93 5062.79
SAVING

Cost of operation & maintenance and Tax

OM cost 464.78 464.78 464.78 464.78 464.78 464.78 464.78 464.78 464.78 464.78 464.78 464.78
Tax for electricity 4.52 4.48 4.43 4.39 4.35 4.30 4.26 4.22 4.17 4.13 4.09 4.05
TOTAL 469.31 469.26 469.22 469.17 469.13 469.09 469.04 469.00 468.96 468.92 468.87 468.83

Financial cost
Loan payment 1115 1115 1115 1115 1115 1115 1115 1115 1115 1115 1115 1115
Loan interest 535 491 446 402 357 312 268 223 178 134 89 45
TOTAL 1650.91 1606.29 1561.67 1517.05 1472.43 1427.81 1383.20 1338.58 1293.96 1249.34 1204.72 1160.10

Discounted cash flow and energy generation

(continued on next page)
Energy Conversion and Management 165 (2018) 8–24
Y. Gu et al. Energy Conversion and Management 165 (2018) 8–24

and PP of less than 10 years. Fig. 9 illustrates the suitable places that

70378.51
3433.86
1628.93
meets such criteria in Sweden. The reference PV/T concentrator are

811.84
appropriate to be applied in those representative cities, i.e. Lund, Gö-
24

teborg, Norrköping, Stockholm, Borlänge and Umeå, etc. [59]. From the
geographic point of view [60], nearly two thirds of Sweden are the
66944.65 suitable places to install this reference PV/T concentrator.
3440.34
1673.59
885.65

4.2.2. Impact of debt to equity ratio

23

Varying the debt to equity ratio and keeping the other assumptions
the same, Fig. 10 shows the variation trend of NPV, LCOE and PP under
this circumstance. The debt to equity ratio is set as the fixed value
63504.31
3447.33
1718.25

(instead of the triangular distribution) during each simulation running.

966.16

The higher debt to equity ratio results in the higher LCOE/NPV, but the
22

lower PP. LCOE slightly increases from 1.01 SEK/kW h (0.101 €m/
kW h) to 1.39 SEK/kW h (0.139 €/kW h) with the increase of debt to
equity from 0% to 90% in a linear way (y = 0.0425x + 0.9493;
60056.97
3454.85
1762.91
1053.99

R2 = 0.994). The impact of debt to equity ratio to NPV value is very

limited, which is also demonstrated in Fig. 6(b). NPV grows from
21

17,329.53 SEK (1732.953 €) to 26,418.06 SEK (2,641.806 €) when the

debt to equity grows in the range of 0% to 90% in a linear way
(y = 1021.2x + 16537; R2 = 0.9928). PP drops against the increase of
56602.12
3462.89
1807.58
1149.81

debt to equity ratio in a polynomial way (y = -

0.0391x2 + 0.0309x + 10.539; R2 = 0.9947), decreasing from
20

10.64 years to 6.83 years. These variations are because the higher debt
to equity means the higher loan from the bank, increasing the annual
loan cost and therefore higher LCOE; on the other hand, high loan re-
53139.23
3471.47
1852.24
1254.34

quires less initial investment and PP, which further increases the pre-
sent values of cash flow slightly. However, the impact of debt to equity
19

is not as much as that of the average daily solar irradiance, which is

consistent with the results in sensitivity/reliability analysis. The simu-
lation results are meaningful to encourage Swedish customers to have
49667.76
3480.58
1896.90
1368.37

more loan from the bank when they decide to invest the PV/T product,
and also useful for development of new business models among dif-
18

ferent stakeholders.

4.2.3. Impact of heating price for household

46187.17
3490.24
1941.56
1492.77

The variations of LCOE, NPV and PP against the increase of

household heating price are displayed in Fig. 11, when the other
17

parameters are remained as the same assumptions. The heating price is

treated as the fixed value in the model (instead of the triangular dis-
tribution) during each simulation running. As concluded in above
42696.94

sensitivity/reliability analysis section, the impact of heating price on

3500.44
1986.23
1628.48

the LCOE can be ignored, which is also observed in this parametric

16

study. By changing heating price from 0.50 SEK/kW h (0.05 €/kW h) to

1.00 SEK/kW h (0.1 €/kW h), LCOE almost stays constantly at around
1.20 SEK/kW h (0.12 €/kW h), while NPV increases greatly from
39196.49

6,805.52 SEK (680.552 €) to 38,450.23 SEK (3,845.023 €) linearly

3511.20
2030.89
1776.52

(y = 6323x + 200; R2 = 0.9996); on the contrast, PP drops from

15

12.47 years to 6.93 years in a linear way (y = -1.0949x + 13.239; R2 =

0.9858). Since the energy savings are only considered into the present
value of cash flow (not in the present value of system cost), the heating
1.05 SEK/kW h (0.105 €/kW h)
35685.29

price only has the impact to NPV and PP but no direct influence on
3522.52
2075.55
1938.02

LCOE. The higher heating price leads to larger savings due to energy
14

generation, contributing more to cash flows and NPV/PP. The simula-

tion result has an indication that it would be more beneficial to apply
the reference PV/T concentrator in those locations or municipalities
32162.78

with higher heating price in Sweden.

3534.40
2120.22
2114.20
13

4.2.4. Impact of concentrator capital price

Considering the change of concentrator price only and keeping the
Discounted Energy

other assumptions the same, the variations of LCOE, NPV and PP

Net Present Value
Table 2 (continued)

Evaluation metrics
Discounted Cost

Payback period
Generation

against the increase of concentrator capital price are presented in

Fig. 12. The concentrator capital price is regarded as the fixed value
Cash flow
Net Profit

(instead of the triangular distribution) during each simulation running.

LCOE
Year

In previous sensitivity/reliability analysis, it is observed that the impact

of concentrator capital price on all the three economic indexes is

19
Y. Gu et al. Energy Conversion and Management 165 (2018) 8–24

25000 Mean NPV (SEK) Mean LCOE (SEK/kWh) Mean PP (year) on PP. When increasing the discount rate from 6% to 10%, LCOE in-
1.4
creases from 1.03 SEK/kW h (0.103 €/kW h) to 1.39 SEK/kW h
10
(0.139 €/kW h) linearly (y = 0.089x + 0.941; R2 = 0.9991); while
20000 1.2
NPV reduces from 30,675.55 SEK (3067.555 €) to 16,353.94 SEK
8 (1635.394 €) in a linear way (y = −3575.5x + 33745; R2 = 0.9934).
1.0
The variation of PP ranges very limited from 9.15 to 9.28 years. The
15000
larger discount rate weakens the present values of cash flow and the
0.8 6
energy generation/benefits, and it ultimately reduces NPV and en-
hances LCOE. According to the simulation result, the lower discount
10000 0.6
4 rate is beneficial to the investment of the reference PV/T concentrator
in Sweden.
0.4
5000
2
0.2
5. Future work to improve the model

0 0.0 0
Case 1 Case 2 Case 1 Case 2 Case 1 Case 2 Since the main task in this work is to propose a methodology and
Case 1: Monte Carlo Case; Case 2: Normal case using avearge point values develop the relevant model by using the nominal efficiencies/data, in
order to find out the most influencing variables (sensitivities) on PV/T
Fig. 7. Comparison of economic analytical results between two cases using different investment decisions in Sweden scenario, further work is required to
methods.
improve this model’s reliability in practical decision making process.
The average daily solar irradiance has the highest sensitivity ranking
remarkable, which is also observed in this parametric study. Increasing and therefore is regarded as the most important factor. Further im-
concentrator capital price from 3000 SEK/m2 (300 €/m2) to 5500 SEK/ provement of the model should apply the historic real-time solar irra-
m2 (550 €/m2), LCOE goes up from 0.81 SEK/kW h (0.081 €/kW h) to diance data to reduce its uncertainty and increase model accuracy. As
1.48 SEK/kW h (0.148 €/kW h) in a linear way (y = 0.1351x + 0.672; highlighted by Guarracino et al. [61], it is important to use real climate
R2 = 0.9989), and similarly, PP increases from 5.63 years to data at high resolution instead of time-averaged data, where the yearly
11.89 years linearly too (y = 1.2657x + 4.2567; R2 = 0.9987); on the energy yields may be discrepant by over 25%. The next important
other hand, NPV falls down from 37,989.16 SEK (3,798.916 €) to impact factors are the debt to equity ratio, the concentrator capital
12,078.33 SEK (1207.833 €) linearly (y = −5219.5x + 43373; R2 = price, local heating prices, and the discount rate. Further simulation
0.9987). The higher concentrator capital price results in the higher should be based on the actual financial plan and the location-based
initial investment and the higher loan cost; so it has a negative impact product & energy prices.
on all the three economic indexes, lowering NPV and increasing LCOE/ Additional attention should be paid to the location-specific real-time
PP simultaneously. The simulation result indicates that the capital price PV/T efficiencies. In this paper, only the nominal PV/T efficiencies are
of the reference PV/T concentrator is important to the final decision of applied in the model, while future model should be based on real-time
investment, and it is suggested that the concentrator capital price PV/T efficiencies that could be defined as the practical probability
should be controlled as low as possible for a better market penetration. distribution curves in the model. Fiorenza et al. reported that the peak
energy yield/efficiencies of the same PV/T concentrator were 15%
4.2.5. Impact of discount rate lower than that in manufacturer’s technical bulletin [50]. Fig. 14
When changing the discount rate only, its impact to the LCOE, NPV compared two cases by referring the PV/T efficiencies’ maximum va-
and PP is illustrated in Fig. 13. It needs to be noted that the discount lues as −15% [50] and minimum values as −25% [61] respectively, to
rate is set at the fixed value, rather than triangular distribution, while the nominal efficiencies according to manufacturer’s technical bulletin.
the rest assumptions are defined as the same distributions. The discount A normal distribution of PV/T efficiencies in case 2 was defined. It
rate has certain impact on both LCOE and NPV but the limited influence dictates that NPV decreases to 8677.80 SEK (867.780 €) while LCOE

Fig. 8. Variations of LCOE, NPV and PP against average daily solar irradiance.

20
Y. Gu et al. Energy Conversion and Management 165 (2018) 8–24

Fig. 9. Appropriate places for the reference PV/T concentrator in Sweden: (a) representative cities, and (b) geographic view.

and PP only increase to 1.51 SEK/kW h (0.151 €/kW h) and 12 years, practical factors, such as seasons, locations, orientations etc. So it is not
respectively. Although the PV/T efficiencies only influence the overall easy to simply foresee the practical efficiencies, and long-term re-
economic performance to a certain level, they can result in a more cording of real-time efficiencies could be one solution for these data.
realistic prediction. Practical PV/T efficiencies vary with many It is also important to introduce temperature production as a

NPV LCOE PP
28000 Mean NPV (SEK)
11.0
Mean LCOE (SEK/kWh)
Mean PP (Year) 1.4 10.5
26000
10.0
PP polynomial fitting
1.3
24000 y = -0.0391x2 + 0.0309x + 10.539 LCOE linear fitting 9.5
R² = 0.9947 y = 0.0425x + 0.9493
R² = 0.994 9.0
22000 1.2
8.5
NPV linear fitting
20000 y = 1021.2x + 16537
8.0
R² = 0.9928 1.1
7.5
18000
1.0 7.0

16000 6.5
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
Debt to equity ratio
Fig. 10. Variations of LCOE, NPV and PP against debt to equity.

21
Y. Gu et al. Energy Conversion and Management 165 (2018) 8–24

NPV LCOE PP
13
Mean NPV (SEK)
40000
Mean LCOE (SEK/kWh) 1.24
12
35000 Mean PP (Year)

30000 1.22 11

25000 10
1.20
20000 9

15000 1.18 8
10000 NPV linear fitting
y = 6323x + 200 PP linear fitting
y = -1.0949x + 13.239
7
R² = 0.9996 1.16
5000 R² = 0.9858
6
0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
Heating price (SEK/kWh)
Fig. 11. Variations of LCOE, NPV and PP against heating price.

parameter in future model, together with surrounding air temperature out a techno-economic evaluation of a reference solar PV/T con-
and hot water load profile. For instance, PV electrical efficiency relies centrator in Sweden based on Monte Carlo method. The important
on the output temperature; the real-time thermal efficiency could be conclusion can be summarized as below:
achieved though using annual temperature production and annual inlet Among the 11 assumptions in the model, the average daily solar
temperature as essential parameters to estimate practical thermal irradiance has the highest sensitivity ranking and therefore is regarded
output and efficiency. In addition, this paper assumed both the thermal as the most important factor. The next important impact factors are
and power output are useful for building services (such as lighting, hot debt to equity ratio, the product capital price, local heating prices, and
water at 40 °C level), where it would be possible when grid connection the discount rate. Further improvement of the model should apply the
or electrical storage is available for the PV output and thermal storage is historic real-time solar irradiance data and the location-specific effi-
available for the thermal output. The estimation from the model may ciencies, financial plan and product & energy prices, as well as tem-
vary depending on the demand profile at different temperature levels perature production and load profiles, to reduce its uncertainty and
and the nominal capacity installed in practice. Further work should also increase model accuracy.
involve the integration of high-resolution demand profile with the ex- Given the project size at 10.37 m2 and capital cost at 4,482–5378
isting model. SEK/m2 (448.2–537.8 €/m2), the reference concentrator has the mean
values of LCOE, NPV and PP at 1.27 SEK/kW h (0.127 €/kW h),
6. Conclusions 18,812.55 SEK (1,881.255 €) and 10 years, respectively, in Stockholm.
There is nearly 12% high risk for the PP over the concentrator’s op-
PV/T technologies offer great opportunities for solar market in- eration life span of 25 years. According to the NPV decision rule, the
novation in Sweden. In order to achieve such success, this paper carries positive NPV indicates that the investment on the selected PV/T

NPV Mean NPV (SEK) LCOE PP

Mean LCOE (SEK/kWh)
40000 Mean PP (Year) 1.5 12

1.4 11
35000 LCOE linear fitting
y = 0.1351x + 0.672 1.3
NPV linear fitting R² = 0.9989 10
30000 y = -5219.5x + 43373
R² = 0.9987 1.2
9
25000
1.1
8
20000 1.0
PP linear fitting 7
y = 1.2657x + 4.2567
R² = 0.9987 0.9
15000
6
0.8
10000 5
3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500
Concentrator capital price (SEK/m2)
Fig. 12. Variations of LCOE, NPV and PP against concentrator capital price.

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Y. Gu et al. Energy Conversion and Management 165 (2018) 8–24

NPV Mean NPV (SEK) LCOE PP

32000 Mean LCOE (SEK/kWh) 9.30
Mean PP (Year) 1.40
30000 9.28
1.35
28000 LCOE linear fitting 9.26
NPV linear fitting y = 0.089x + 0.941 1.30
26000 y = -3575.5x + 33745 R² = 0.9991
9.24
R² = 0.9934 1.25
24000 PP linear fitting 9.22
y = 0.032x + 9.116 1.20
22000 R² = 0.9961
9.20
1.15
20000 9.18
1.10
18000 9.16
1.05
16000 9.14
1.00
0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10
Discount rate
Fig. 13. Variations of LCOE, NPV and PP against discount rate.

Warwick, UK. The authors would also appreciate all the reviewers’
comments for us to improve of the paper.

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