STAT 1012: Statistics for Life Sciences

2023-24 Term 1
Assignment #4

Problem 1 [11 points]: There are 135 students in Grade 1. Suppose the probability that a
student will live on Lamma Island is 0.02. Let 𝑋 be the total number of students Grade 1
who lives in the Lamma Island.
(a) [3 points] What probability distribution (including its parameters) does 𝑋 follow?
X Binomial (135, 0.02)
(b) [4 points] What is the probability that at most 3 students live on Lamma Island?
3
Pr( X  3) =  Ci135 0.02i (1 − 0.02)135−i = 0.98135 + 135 ⋅ 0.02 ⋅ 0.98134 +
135⋅134
⋅ 0.022 ⋅
i =0
2⋅1

135⋅134⋅133
0.98133 + ⋅ 0.023 ⋅ 0.98132 = 0.714772
3⋅2⋅1
(c) [4 Points] What’s the expectation values and variance of 𝑋? What’s the shape of the
distribution of 𝑋 (Right-skewed, left-skewed, or symmetric)
EX = 135  0.02 = 2.7
Var ( X ) = 135  0.02  (1 − 0.02) = 2.646
Since 0.02  0.5 , its shape is right-skewed.

Problem 2 [21 points]: Let the independent random variable 𝑋 and 𝑌 have binomialx
distributions with parameters 𝑛𝑋 = 2, 𝑝𝑋 = 𝑝 and 𝑛𝑌 = 4, 𝑝𝑌 = 𝑝, respectively. If
Pr(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 7/16
(a) [6 points] Please find 𝑝 and Pr⁡(𝑌 ≥ 2).
From the conditions, we have X Binomial (2, p) , Y Binomial (4, p )

7 1
Pr( X  1) = C12 p 2 + C12 p(1 − p) , and then according to Pr( X  1) = , we can get p = .
16 4
1 1
There, X Binomial (2, ), Y Binomial (4, ).
4 4
And thus 𝑃𝑟( 𝑌 ≥ 2) = 𝐶24 𝑝2 (1 − 𝑝)2 + 𝐶34 𝑝3 (1 − 𝑝) + 𝐶44 𝑝4
1 3 1 3 1 67
= 6( )2 ( )2 + 4( )3 ( ) + ( )4 =
4 4 4 4 4 256
(b) [7 points] Please compute Pr⁡(𝑋 = 𝑌).
𝑃𝑟( 𝑋 = 𝑌) = 𝑃𝑟( 𝑋 = 0, 𝑌 = 0) + 𝑃𝑟( 𝑋 = 1, 𝑌 = 1) + 𝑃𝑟( 𝑋 = 2, 𝑌 = 2)
⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡ = 𝐶02 (1 − 𝑝)2 𝐶04 (1 − 𝑝)4 + 𝐶12 𝑝(1 − 𝑝)𝐶14 𝑝(1 − 𝑝)3 + 𝐶22 𝑝2 𝐶24 𝑝2 (1 − 𝑝)2
3 3 1 3 1 3 1 1 3
⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡ = ( )2 ( )4 + 2 ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ 4 ⋅ ⋅ ( )3 + ( )2 ⋅ 6 ⋅ ( )2 ( )2
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1431
⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡= = 0.349365
4096

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(c) [8 points] Please compute Pr⁡(𝑋 > 𝑌).
𝑃𝑟( 𝑋 > 𝑌) = 𝑃𝑟( 𝑋 = 1, 𝑌 = 0) + 𝑃𝑟( 𝑋 = 2, 𝑌 = 1) + 𝑃𝑟( 𝑋 = 2, 𝑌 = 0)
⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡ = 𝐶12 𝑝(1 − 𝑝)𝐶04 (1 − 𝑝)4 + 𝐶22 𝑝2 [𝐶14 𝑝(1 − 𝑝)3 + 𝐶04 (1 − 𝑝)4 ]
1 3 3 1 1 3 3
⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡ = 2 ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ ( )4 + ( )2 ⋅ [4 ⋅ ⋅ ( )3 + ( )4 ]
4 4 4 4 4 4 4
675
⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡⁡ = = 0.164794
4096

Problem 3 [28 points]: The number of cracks in a section of highway that is significant
enough to require repair is assumed to follow a Poisson distribution. Let 𝑋 be the number
of cracks in 20km, and we have the information that the probability of 4 cracks in 20km is
equal to the probability of 5 cracks in 20km (Pr(𝑋 = 4) = Pr(𝑋 = 5))
(a) [4 points] Find the Expect value 𝑋 (The expect cracks in 20km) and the Variance of 𝑋.
From the conditions, we have X Poisson(  ) ,

e−   4 e−   5
By Pr( X = 4) = Pr( X = 5) , we have = , so  = 5 .
4! 5!

That is, X Poisson(5) , so E ( X ) = Var ( X ) = 5 .

(b) [6 points] Find the number of cracks in 20km which have the largest probability.
Suppose when X = k , X have the largest probability.
Pr( X = k ) k +1 Pr( X = k ) 
So =  1, = 1,
Pr( X = k + 1)  Pr( X = k − 1) k

From them, we can get  − 1  k   .

Thus, when X = 4 and X = 5 , its probability is the largest.
(c) [4 points] What’s the probability that at least one crack requires repair in 5km of the
highway?
5
Let 𝑌 be the number of cracks in 5km, so Y Poisson( )
4

Pr(Y  1) = 1 − e−5/4 = 0.713495

(d) [8 points] Let 𝑌 be the number of cracks in 5km, sketch the (CDF) Cumulative
Distribution Function and graph up to 𝑦 = 4.5.
K 0 1 2 3 4 5
CDF 0.286505 0.644636 0.868468 0.961731 0.990876 0.998162

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(e) [6 points] If we should order the material to fix the cracks beforehand, how many
packages of the material (One package for one crack) shall we order to ensure that all
the cracks in 5km can be fixed with at least 95% chance?
5
ye−5/4 ( )k
From the table of (d), we the minimum of y, satisfying Pr(Y  y ) =  4  0.95 ,
k =0 k!
should be 3, so we shall order 3 packages of the material to ensure that all the cracks in
5km can be fixed with at least 95% chance.

Problem 4 [40 points]: The canteen at the university has collected the customers
e-payment data. They found that there are an average of 60 customers walking into the
canteen in three hours (180 minutes). And each customer has a 98% chance of using
e-payment to pay the bill.
Let 𝑋 = number of customers in 15 minutes.
(a) [4 points] What probability distribution (including its parameters) does 𝑋 follow? And
what’s the Expect value and the Variance of 𝑋.
X Poisson(5) , E ( X ) = Var ( X ) = 5

(b) [4 points] What is the probability of at least 1 customer walking into the canteen in 15
minutes?
Pr( X  1) = 1 − e−5 = 0.993262

(c) [5 points] Given that there is at least 1 customer walking into the canteen, what is the
conditional probability that the number of customers is 4?
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 e−5 54
Pr( X = 4, X  1) Pr( X = 4)
Pr( X = 4 | X  1) = = = 4! = 0.176657
Pr( X  1) Pr( X  1) 1 − e−5

Let 𝑌 = number of customers using e-payment among 60 customers.

(d) [5 points] What probability distribution (including its parameters) does 𝑌 follow?
What’s the Expect value, the standard deviation of 𝑌 and what’s the shape of the 𝑌′𝑠
distribution?
Y Binomial (60,0.98) , E ( X ) = 60  0.98 = 58.8 ,  = Var ( X ) = 60  0.98  (1 − 0.98) = 1.084435

Since 0.98  0.5 , its shape is left-skewed.

(e) [4 points] What is the probability that all the 60 customers will use the e-payment?
Pr(Y = 60) = C60
60
0.9860 = 0.297553

(f) [4 points] Can we use Poisson distribution to approximate 𝑌? Why? If yes, what is the
parameter of this Poisson distribution?
Since 0.98>0.1, so the parameter is too big to approximate.
(g) [8 points] Let 𝑍 be the number of customers NOT using e-payment among 60
customers, which means 𝑍 = 60 − 𝑌. What is the distribution of 𝑍? Can we use
Poisson distribution to approximate 𝑍⁡?
Z Binomial (60,0.02)
Since 60>20, 0.02<0.1, 60  0.02 = 1.2  5 ,so we can use Poisson distribution to
approximate 𝑍, and Z  Z Poisson(1.2) .

(h) [6 points] Based on the Poisson approximation, please compute the probability that at
least 58 customers will use the e-payment. [Hints: Pr(𝑌 ≥ 58) = Pr⁡(𝑍 ≤ 2)]
e−1.2 1.2k
Pr(Y  58) = Pr( Z  2)  Pr( Z  2) = k =0
2
= 0.879487
k!

-End of the Assignment-

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