AFP Action, Three Ways To Win (Feb. 25, 2024)

To: AFP Action Team
From: Emily Seidel, Senior Advisor, AFP Action

Re: 3 ways to win
Date: February 25, 2024
Team,
First and foremost, thank you. For the past several months you’ve sacrificed a lot to lead AFP Action’s early state
strategy in the presidential primary and to support our earliest endorsement efforts ever in key Senate and House
races. Over 3 million voter contacts. Incredible! Thank you.
With every door you’ve knocked, every phone call you’ve made, AFP Action’s grassroots capability has grown
stronger. Not only will these efforts pay off in November, but they help ensure that AFP Action is a force to be
reckoned with for years to come.
With our early state strategies in Iowa, New Hampshire, and now South Carolina behind us and the Senate contests
taking shape, it’s time to assess where we are in our broader 2024 strategy.
When we launched AFP Action’s 2024 elections strategy, it had 3 prongs: The Republican presidential primary, the
U.S. Senate, and the U.S. House. As we said last year, this gives us “3 ways to win” – 3 opportunities to prevent the
greatest threat from this election cycle: one-party progressive rule and the resulting damage to our system of
constitutionally limited government.
Each of these 3 prongs has its own timeline and likelihood of success. And the U.S. Senate strategy has always been
our top priority because it has the best chance of success and of making the greatest difference – it’s the “firewall”.
With the South Carolina presidential primary this weekend and the Senate engagement really heating up, it’s time to
take stock of where we are and – as we always do – make sure we’re optimizing our resources for maximum impact
towards our goals.
The Presidential Primary

AFP Action stands firm behind our endorsement for Nikki Haley. It takes a special leader with conviction, resolve, and
steel in her spine to jump into a tough race with a narrow path.
Nikki Haley has been willing to take on that challenge and offer America a forward-looking vision and solutions to the
toughest issues our country faces. She is by far the best candidate to turn the page on our dysfunctional politics and
take our country in a new, positive direction.
As we’ve discussed since the endorsement in November, we knew the presidential primary faced the longest odds –
but we also knew given what’s at stake, we couldn’t sit on the sidelines. This organization exists to do hard
things. To challenge the status quo. To stick our necks out and lead. Americans deserve a choice for president who
brings out the best in our country and who can deliver bold solutions to big challenges.
Nikki Haley has shown us again and again that we made the right decision in supporting her candidacy and she
continues to have our strong endorsement. She has made it clear that she will continue to fight and we
wholeheartedly support her in this effort. But given the challenges in the primary states ahead, we don’t believe any
outside group can make a material difference to widen her path to victory. And so while we will continue to endorse
her, we will focus our resources where we can make the difference. And that’s the U.S. Senate and House.
If Donald Trump is at the top of the Republican ticket, the risk of one-party rule by a Democratic Party captured by
the Progressive Left is severe and would do irreparable damage to the country. The last 3 election cycles have
painted a very clear picture of what we can expect from voters who consistently rejected Donald Trump and his
impact on the Republican party brand. This has been reinforced by the recent elections in Virginia in 2023 and the
special elections in New York and Pennsylvania just this month. And we should expect this to increase further as the
criminal trials progress.
The Senate & The House

This election will be decided by swing voters. And Joe Biden leads Donald Trump 2 to 1 amongst independents. The
most important – and hardest – thing we may need to do is convince millions of voters who will never cast a ballot
for Donald Trump to vote for Republican candidates for Senate and House who will advance our shared principles.
AFP Action has done this before and we are confident we can do it again.
We’ve already endorsed candidates in four competitive states – Nevada, Montana, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin –
and we intend to endorse in the other two (Ohio and Michigan). We have a lot of work left to do – and no time to
waste. We’ve already launched major digital and mail buys in the Montana, Nevada, and Pennsylvania U.S. Senate
races.
Additionally, in the U.S. House we’ve already announced nearly two dozen endorsements and are prepared to
engage in more than 100 House races, if necessary.
As those of you who are out there braving the Montana winter to advocate for Tim Sheehy know well - we’re already
well underway on these efforts.
As we said last year, we believe our country desperately needs to turn the page on the current political era in
Washington, D.C. and get back to advancing good policy that will improve lives. I couldn’t be prouder of what our
teams were able to accomplish so far. Despite brutal conditions and sub-zero temperatures, you’ve worked day and
night, holidays and weekends, to knock on more doors and speak with more voters than ever before.
Heading into this next phase of our strategy, we know the challenge will be difficult. But we’re also stronger, more
focused, and more determined to get the job done.
Every voter we talked to has given us deeper insight and new data that we’ll carry with us for every election going
forward. Every new activist we’ve added is another advocate for our principles capable of spreading our message to
thousands of people in their own communities.
These are the moments we were made for. Nobody else will do what we will in the next 253 days. It’s up to us. Let’s
get this done.

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To: AFP Action Team

From: Emily Seidel, Senior Advisor, AFP Action

The Presidential Primary

The Senate & The House

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