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Web prefetching through efficient prediction by partial matching

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 Appeared in World Wide Web, Vol. 19, Issue 5, pp. 921-932, USA, September 2016

Web Prefetching through Efficient Prediction by Partial Matching

Arpad Gellert, Adrian Florea

Computer Science and Electrical Engineering Department, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Romania
E-mail: {arpad.gellert, adrian.florea}@ulbsibiu.ro

In this work we propose a prediction by partial matching technique to anticipate and prefetch web pages
and files accessed via browsers. The goal is to reduce the delays necessary to load the web pages and files
visited by the users. Since the number of visited web pages can be high, tree-based and table-based
implementations can be inefficient from the representation point of view. Therefore, we present an
efficient way to implement the prediction by partial matching as simple searches in the observation
sequence. Thus, we can use high number of states in long web page access histories and higher order
Markov chains at low complexity. The time-evaluations show that the proposed PPM implementation is
significantly more efficient than previous implementations. We have enhanced the predictor with a
confidence mechanism, implemented as saturating counters, which classifies dynamically web pages as
predictable or unpredictable. Predictions are generated selectively only from web pages classified as
predictable, improving thus the accuracy. The experiments show that the prediction by partial matching of
order 4 with a history of 500 web pages is the optimal.

Key words: Web page prediction, prefetching, Markov chains, prediction by partial matching,
browser extension.

1 Introduction
Nowadays the access to the Internet becomes more prevalent worldwide and often there are requests
for higher bandwidths. Clients are frequently confronted with delays in accessing web pages, especially
those ones that are limited by low-bandwidth modems or wireless routers. Many latency-tolerant
techniques have been developed during the last years, the most important being caching and
prefetching. Caching exploits the temporal locality principle by keeping the accessed pages and files in
a cache structure, whereas prefetching anticipates the next accesses and loads the corresponding web
pages or files into the cache. If the user accesses a web page or a file which is available in the cache,
the browser can load it without any delays. Thus, when the users have long browsing sessions,
prediction-based prefetching can be very effective by minimizing the access latencies.
In this paper we analyze web page prefetching through prediction by partial matching (PPM)
enhanced with a dynamic confidence mechanism. The PPM was first introduced by Cleary and Witten
in [4] for data compression and represents an important context-based prediction method. It contains a
set of simple Markov predictors. It uses the highest order Markov predictor which can provide
prediction. The predicted value is the value that followed the context with the highest frequency. The
number of states used in such models tends to rise exponentially as the order of the model increases
[6]. Therefore, we implemented the PPM algorithm as simple searches in the observation sequence
instead of using high complexity tree-, graph- or table-based modelling. Our simple representation
allows superior order Markov chains with high number of states and long histories, at low complexity.
Thus, the proposed PPM implementation is significantly more efficient than previous implementations.
We have also enhanced the predictor with a confidence mechanism, which classifies dynamically web
pages as predictable or unpredictable. Predictions are generated selectively only from web pages
classified as predictable, improving thus the accuracy. The confidence mechanism consists in
dynamically adapted saturating counters attached to each web page. We evaluate the proposed
predictor in terms of prediction accuracy on the BU benchmark set, generated by the “Ocean Group
Research” from Boston University [5]. The goal is to find the most appropriate prediction technique for
anticipating and prefetching web pages and to integrate it as an extension into browsers.
The organization of the rest of this paper is as follows. In Section 2, we are reviewing the related
work in web page prefetching. Section 3 is describing our proposed web page predictors. In Section 4
we are presenting the experimental results. Conclusions and further work directions are included in
Section 5.

2 Related Work
In our previous work [11] we compared Markov chains, Hidden Markov Models and graph algorithms
as web page prediction methods. We applied multi-page prediction by prefetching all the pages that
appeared in the history after the considered context. The best prediction accuracy has been obtained
with a hybrid predictor consisting in a HMM and a graph-based predictor. The proposed hybrid
predictor prefetched the web pages anticipated by both component predictors. In contrast, in this work
we use the prediction by partial matching algorithm which combines different order Markov chains
exploiting thus the advantage of each one. In order to reduce the additional network traffic, in this work
we prefetch only one predicted web page from each confident state.
In [14] the authors proposed a continuous-time Markov model for web page prediction. They used
Kolmogorov’s backward equations to compute the transition probabilities and to predict which web
page will be visited by a certain user and when. Their method can also estimate the total number of
visits to a web page done by all the people at a certain interval. Link prediction based on Markov
chains was presented in [25]. In [17] the author applied the Markov model together with the k-nearest
neighbor classifier algorithm to enhance the performance of traditional Markov chains in predicting
web pages. He obtained lower consumed memory, quite similar build time and evaluation time and
higher accuracy. In [18, 19] clustering is used to group homogeneous user sessions. Low order Markov
chains are built on these clustered sessions and when Markov models cannot make clear predictions the
association rules are used. In [20] the authors presented a survey of web page ranking for web
personalization. They concluded that low order Markov models have higher accuracy and lower
coverage, whereas the higher order models have a number of limitations associated with: higher state
complexity, reduced coverage and sometimes even worse prediction accuracy.

2
 In [24] Pitkow and Pirolli show that, compared to various Markov models, longest repeating
subsequence models can significantly reduce complexity while keeping the ability to make accurate
predictions. In [9] the authors proposed a hybrid web page prediction method which combines support
vector machines, association rule mining and Markov chains in order to enhance the efficiency. Their
experimental results showed that the proposed hybrid predictor outperformed the individual predictors.
In [26] the authors presented an n-gram based model to utilize path profiles of users from very large
web log to predict future requests. They showed that the proposed method achieves a reasonable
balance between precision and applicability.
In [16] the authors used HMMs for semantic-based web page prefetching. In [12] the authors
presented a web page prediction method based on conditional random fields, used for labeling and
segmenting sequential data. Conditional random fields have the ability to model the dependencies
among observations and they can also incorporate various features from observation sequences to
increase the prediction accuracy. They concluded that conditional random fields outperformed Markov
chains and HMMs but for a great number of labels their training may become very expensive and even
intractable.
In [6] the authors used different PPM techniques for web page prefetching. They observed that as
the order of the model increases, the number of states used for the model also increases dramatically.
They reduced the complexity of the model by eliminating many of its states that are expected to have
low prediction accuracy. But the behaviour of a certain user can change in time and a state with low
prediction accuracy can become a state with high accuracy and vice versa. In contrast, we select
dynamically the confident states through the saturating counters attached to each web page. The great
advantage of the saturating counters is that they can adapt fast to any changes in the user’s behaviour.
We reduced the complexity of PPM modelling by keeping all the states. In [31] the authors reduced the
high state complexity of Markov chains by clustering web pages with similar transition behaviours
together to get a compressed transition matrix. However, their compression is based on similarity
metrics which accept a low level of error and thus can cause some loss of information. In [23] the PPM
is modelled as a tree whose nodes are the web pages. The model is updated on new user requests. The
prediction engine selects which page to prefetch based on the occurrence count associated to each
node. The fraction between the occurrence counts of a certain node and its parent is used to decide to
activate or not the prefetch. In contrast, in our approach we decide to prefetch or not based on the
confidence of the current web page and we use saturating confidence counters for faster adaptation to
user behaviour changes. The tree is inefficient in the case of high Markov chain order and high number
of web pages due to the resulting high state complexity. In [1] the authors use a noncompact suffix tree
to implement an online PPM which keeps the most recent requests, being able thus to capture changing
patterns and fit the memory. In our approach we apply the PPM on a limited sliding window of web
requests as in [1] but our model representation is different. In contrast with [6, 31, 23, 1], we
implemented the PPM as simple searches for the contexts in the sequence of visited web pages and thus
the complexity grows only linearly with the order of the model.
Graphs were also used for prediction through some specific algorithms. In [15] Huang explored
link prediction based on graph topology. In [13] Hasan addressed link prediction in social networks by

3
using supervised learning and classification algorithms such as decision tree, multi-layer perceptron,
support vector machines. His results were reported on BIOBASE and DBLP, two datasets that have
information about different research publications in biology and computer science, respectively.
Another approach in link prediction of social networks was proposed in [22]. The author’s solution
aims at predicting links based on weighted proximity measures of social networks relying on the
structural properties (topology) of a given network.
In [3] the authors proposed a page rank algorithm to predict the next page that will be visited by a
web surfer. For the first set of sessions they applied the page rank algorithm which provides the ranks
for web pages. For each web page their method determines to which pages the user can navigate and,
using the page ranks, it computes the probability of visiting them by dividing each rank to the sum of
ranks, and the number of links to the total number of links, respectively.
In [2] Canali et al. proposed adaptive algorithms that combine predictive and social information
and dynamically adjust their parameters according to the continuously changing workload
characteristics. Their experimental results showed that such adaptive algorithms can achieve
performance close to theoretical ideal algorithms. In [28] Wan et al. proposed an approach based on a
vector space model, called random indexing, for the discovery of the intrinsic characteristics of web
user activities. The underlying factors are then used for clustering individual user navigational patterns.
The clustering results are used to predict and prefetch web requests for grouped users.
In [27] Temgire et al. presented a review on web prefetching techniques. The variety of
prefetching algorithms hinder to a certain extent the performance evaluation of new techniques and
their correct comparison with existing methods. Therefore, in [7] the authors proposed a free
environment for implementation and efficient evaluation of prefetching techniques. Their framework
combines real and simulated behaviour of web users and servers. A proxy-based framework for
prefetching web pages has been proposed in [29]. Some of the algorithms proposed in the literature
consider a training period before making predictions. The training period can improve or even decrease
performance, since, if it is too long, it can involve a high amount of resources. In [8] the authors
analyzed how this training affects the prediction accuracy. Instead of pre-training we applied run-time
training.
User behaviour prediction has been applied also in online advertisement industry [21] and financial
service industry [30].

3 Web Page Prediction

Our goal is to integrate the most efficient PPM configuration as an extension into browsers, as in [11].
The browser extension, presented in Figure 1, collects and pre-processes the links accessed by the user:
each link is codified with a unique number, ports and relative parts are eliminated from links, if there
are two consecutive accesses of the same link only one is considered, links having the extension .gif
and .xbm, which are usually small images, are also eliminated. The browser extension keeps a certain
history of the accessed links. When the current link is accessed, the next link is anticipated using the

4
PPM algorithm on the basis of the history of the previously visited links. The predicted web page or
file is prefetched in the cache in order to be available if the user accesses it.

Browser Extension

Data Collector &

Client PPM Prefetcher
Preprocessor

Figure 1 The structure of the application

In order to improve the prediction accuracy, the predictor is enhanced with a confidence
mechanism as in [11], which consists in saturating counters, attached to all the links kept in the history.
The associated saturating counters are incremented on correct prediction and decremented on
misprediction. A prediction is generated only if the confidence counter of the current link is in a
predictable state. By using such a confidence mechanism, the number of predictions is lower but the
prediction accuracy is significantly higher. For a low traffic level, the proposed predictors are
providing only one predicted web page, instead of a multi-page prediction presented in [11].

3.1 Markov Predictors

In a first order Markov chain with N states, the current state depends only on the previous state:
P[ q t q t −1 , ..., q1 ] = P[ q t q t −1 ] (1)

where qt is the state at time t. In a Markov chain of order R, the current state depends on R previous
states [11]:
P[ qt qt −1 , ..., q1 ] = P[q t qt −1 , ..., qt − R ] (2)

In our application the states are represented by the web pages. The Markov chains can be used to
predict the next web page by searching for the current context within the history of visited web pages.
The web page that followed the context with the highest frequency is the predicted one. Figure 2
presents an example of prediction with a first order Markov chain: the context is the link 1 and the
prediction is 5 since it occurred the most frequently after 1.

1 5 2 4 1 3 1 5 4 1 5

Figure 2 Prediction with a first order Markov chain

5
 In a Markov chain of order R, the context consists in the last R web pages. The Markov predictor
used for web page prefetching is presented in the following pseudocode:

MARKOV (SEQ, R)
for k := 0 to R-1 do
C[k] := SEQ[H-R+k]
for i := R to H-1 do
IS_CONTEXT := TRUE
for k := 0 to R-1 do
if SEQ[i-R+k] != C[k] then
IS_CONTEXT := false
break
if(IS_CONTEXT)
P[SEQ[i]] := P[SEQ[i]] + 1
PRED := 0
MAX := P[0]
for k := 1 to N-1 do
if P[k] > MAX then
MAX := P[k]
PRED := k
if MAX > 0 then return PRED
return -1

where R is the order of the Markov chain, SEQ is the observation sequence, C is the context (the last R
web pages from SEQ), H is the length of SEQ, P keeps the probability distribution for N distinct web
pages, PRED is the predicted web page, and MAX is the number of occurrences of the predicted web
page after the context C. If the context C is not found in SEQ, expressed by returning -1, we do not
predict any web page. We have also presented the Java implementation of such a Markov predictor in
[10].
Tree-, graph-, or transition table-based implementations are also possible, but such methods are
inefficient for a high number of web pages and superior order Markov models. The temporal
complexity of our Markov model implementation is Θ(HxR). The memory request is even lower: it
needs to keep the web page sequence of size T in SEQ, the context of size R in C, the probability
distribution of size N in P and other few variables (IS_CONTEXT, PRED, MAX), which is remarkable
especially for systems with memory constraints.

3.2 Prediction by Partial Matching

The PPM of order R first tries to predict with the Markov model of order R based on the web page
sequence SEQ. If the Markov model of order R cannot predict, then the Markov model of order R-1 is

6
used, and so on, the last trial being the Markov model of order 1. In other words, if the Markov model
of a certain order cannot provide prediction, it triggers the next lower order Markov chain. Figure 3
presents an example of prediction with a PPM of order 3: the Markov chain of order 3 cannot predict
because it could not find the context of 3 links, thus the prediction 3 is generated by the Markov chain
of order 2 because it followed once the context within the link sequence.

1 5 2 4 1 3 1 5 4 1 X

1 5 2 4 1 3 1 5 4 1 3

1 5 2 4 1 3 1 5 4 1

Figure 3 Prediction with PPM of order 3

We have not included the Markov model of order 0 because it is not using any contextual information.
The prediction mechanism is presented in Figure 4. The PPM algorithm is given in the following
pseudocode:

PPM (SEQ, R)
for r := R downto 1 do
PRED := MARKOV(SEQ, r)
if PRED != -1 then return PRED
return -1

Markov ord. 1 Markov ord. R-1 Markov ord. R

Context of
length 1
-1 found
0 1 Context of
MUX length R-1
2:1 found
Context of
length R
0 1 found
MUX
2:1

0 1
MUX
2:1

Predicted web page

Figure 4 Prediction by partial matching

7
 Since, in the most unfavourable case, the MARKOV function is called R times, the complexity of
the PPM algorithm is Θ(HxR2). The memory request of the proposed PPM is similar with that of the
above presented Markov model, which is remarkable, and significantly better than that of the other
existing PPM implementations.

3.3 Graph-Based Prediction

The graphs are data structures used in many types of applications to model different processes. A graph
consists in vertices which can be connected by edges. Figure 5 depicts a directed weighted graph whose
vertices represent the accessed links. An edge between two vertices means at least one transition from
a link to another in the direction shown by the arrow, whereas the weights are keeping the transition
numbers.
inginerie.ulbsibiu.ro

5 12
acaps.ulbsibiu.ro
109
31
www.ulbsibiu.ro 87 4

1
4

23
242 46
2
www.csac.ro
3
webmail.ulbsibiu.ro

Figure 5 Modeling web page accesses using graphs

The graph-based predictor anticipates the next link as being the vertex whose edge with the current
vertex has the highest weight. In fact, it is a first order Markov predictor implemented using a directed
graph. The algorithm is presented in the following pseudocode:

DGRAPH()
A := C.GET_PAIRS()
MAX := A[0]
foreach Edge E from A
if E > MAX then MAX := E
if MAX > 0 then return E.GET_PAIR(C)
return -1

where C is the vertex corresponding to the current link, GET_PAIRS returns a list with all the adjacent
vertices and GET_PAIR gives the pair vertex of a certain vertex from a given edge E. We assume that
when the function is called, the directed graph is already constructed based on the sequence of visited
web pages.

8
4 Experimental Results
The first step of our research is to analyze the proposed algorithms from the prediction accuracy point
of view, by varying their input parameters. Such a study can be better highlighted on a set of log files.
Therefore, the above presented algorithms have been implemented in Java and evaluated on the BU
benchmarks.
The BU dataset was generated by the “Ocean Group Research” from Boston University [5] and
consists in log files collected during 7 months on 37 workstations, spanning the timeframe from 21
November 1994 to 8 May 1995. Each log file name contains a user ID number, the machine on which
the session took place and the Unix timestamp when the session started. Each line in a log corresponds
to a single URL requested by the user; it contains the machine name, the timestamp when the request
was made, the URL, the size of the document (including the overhead of the protocol) and the object
retrieval time in seconds. The average number of links in the BU benchmarks is 1905. After we have
pre-processed the original log files, as we described in Section 3, we named them conX where X is the
user ID.
First, we have evaluated a 3rd order PPM by varying the size of the web page sequence, also called
history (H). We used 4-state confidence counters, identified in [11] as being optimal for web page
prediction. The results are presented in Figure 6.
As Figure 6 presents, the highest average prediction accuracy has been obtained with a history
length of 600. We can observe an increase in accuracy until H=600 and a fall after that, meaning that a
rich history can lead to higher accuracy, but starting with a certain length it can behave as noise and the
accuracy decreases. In fact, the accuracies obtained with history lengths of 500, 600 and 700 are very
close – 70.14%, 70.42% and 70.40%, respectively –, therefore, we consider that the optimal history
length is 500.

90
Prediction Accuracy [%]

80
70 H=400
H=500
60 H=600
H=700
50 H=800
40
Average
con112
con133
con160
con172
con195
con221
con228
con316
con325
con337
con338
con347
con357
con405
con408
con57
con60
con603
con68
con71
con76
con99

Benchmarks

Figure 6 Prediction accuracy of 3rd order PPM (R=3) for different histories

9
 We have continued our study by varying the order of the confidence-based PPM, considering the
optimal history length of 500 web pages. The results are presented in Figure 7:

90
Prediction Accuracy [%]

80

70 R=1
R=2
60 R=3
R=4
50 R=5

40

Average
con112
con133
con160
con172
con195
con221
con228
con316
con325
con337
con338
con347
con357
con405
con408
con57
con60
con603
con68
con71
con76
con99
Benchmarks

Figure 7 Prediction accuracy obtained with PPM of different orders and history of 500 (H=500)

Figure 7 shows that the prediction accuracy increases with the order of the PPM, but there is
marginal benefit of increasing the order beyond 4. On some benchmarks we can observe inflexion
points followed by accuracy decrease. For those benchmarks, the Markov chains of higher orders than
the inflexion point have more mispredictions at higher complexity. The average prediction accuracies
show that the PPM of order 4 is the optimal.
Prediction Accuracy [%]

90
70
PPM with conf.
50
30 PPM without conf.
10
Average
con112
con133
con160
con172
con195
con221
con228
con316
con325
con337
con338
con347
con357
con405
con408
con57
con60
con603
con68
con71
con76
con99

Benchmarks

Figure 8 Comparing the optimal PPM (H=500, R=4) with and without confidence

10
 We have compared the optimal PPM (H=500, R=4) with a PPM having the same configuration but
without the 4-state confidence mechanism. As Figure 8 depicts, the 4-state confidence counters have a
very high benefit. With this confidence mechanism we are able to selectively predict only from
confident web pages, increasing thus the average prediction accuracy from 31.54% to 71.11%. Figure 9
shows how the prediction rate (the number of predicted web pages divided to the total number of web
pages) is influenced by the selectivity of the 4-state confidence mechanisms in the case of the optimal PPM
(H=500, R=4).

0.8
0.7
Prediction Rate

0.6
0.5 PPM with conf.
0.4
0.3
0.2 PPM without
0.1 conf.
0.0

Average
con112
con133
con160
con172
con195
con221
con228
con316
con325
con337
con338
con347
con357
con405
con408
con57
con60
con603
con68
con71
con76
con99

Benchmarks

Figure 9 Comparing the prediction rates of the optimal PPM (H=500, R=4) with and without confidence

It can be observed that the attached 4-state confidence counters reduce the number of predictions from
62% to 10% but improve the accuracy from 31.54% to 71.11%. In order to not increase too much the
network traffic, we prefer to predict fewer times but accurately.

120
100
80
Time [s]

Graph 1
60
Markov 1
40
PPM 4
20
0
Average
con112
con133
con160
con172
con195
con221
con228
con316
con325
con337
con338
con347
con357
con405
con408
con57
con60
con603
con68
con71
con76
con99

Benchmarks

Figure 10 Simulation time

11
 Finally, Figure 10 depicts the efficiency of our PPM implementation opposite to a graph-based
implementation, as simulation time. The implementations which are implying transition tables, trees or
graphs, as in [6, 23, 25, 31], become very inefficient or even intractable for high number of distinct
web pages and superior order models, because of the high state complexity. In Figure 10, Graph 1 is a
first order Markov predictor implemented using a directed weighted graph, whereas Markov 1 and
PPM 4 are our first order Markov and 4th order PPM implementations. We reported the time necessary
to process and eventually predict all the links from each benchmarks. As the evaluations show, our
proposed Markov model implementation is more efficient than the graph-based one, and more
important, our proposed PPM implementation has almost the same time-efficiency even for higher
orders. The average execution time with the first order graph based Markov predictor is 29.77 s, while
with our first order Markov predictor and our 4th order PPM it was only 10.18 s and 11.27 s,
respectively.

5 Conclusions and Further Work

In this study we proposed prediction based web prefetching methods in order to reduce the delays
necessary to load the web pages and files visited by the users. We have presented an efficient way to
implement the prediction by partial matching as simple searches in the observation sequence. By
avoiding tree-, table- and graph-based implementations, the memory necessity of the proposed PPM is
similar with that of the Markov model. This low complexity is remarkable, especially for the superior
order models with high number of states, and significantly better than in the other existing PPM
implementations. Our time-evaluations show that the prediction latency of the proposed model is just
slightly affected by the order of the model, opposite to the implementations using the above mentioned
data structures with which the order of the model affects exponentially the complexity.
The confidence mechanism has a high benefit because it allows to predict selectively from high-
confidence contexts, decreasing thus the prediction rate from 62% to 10%, but increasing in the same
time the accuracy from 31.54% to 71.11%. The optimal prediction accuracy of 71.11% was obtained
with the PPM of order 4 using a history of 500 web pages and 4-state confidence counters.
A further work direction is the analysis of using neural networks for web page prediction as a first
prediction level in a two-stage predictor. Another further work direction consists in developing and
evaluating different hybrid predictors. The PPM is a hybrid predictor with prioritization-based static
component selection and we intend to evaluate also dynamic selection in order to use the best predictor
at a certain moment, for possible prediction accuracy improvements. Finding and exploiting similarity
among users is a research challenge in itself.

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