Probability

The probability of an event is a number from 0 to 1 which indicates the

chance/likelihood that a particular event will occur. Probability does not
tell us exactly what will happen, it is only a guide
A probability of 0 implies the event will not occur
A probability of 1 implies the event will occur
event will not occur event will occur
unlikely likely
0 0.5 1

Notation & terminology:

 Experiment/Trial – any process that can be repeated with well
defined outcomes
eg: spin a coin, roll a dice, a firms monthly sales, accidents per week

 Outcomes – the result(s) of an experiment/trial

eg: spin a coin – getting a heads roll a dice – getting a 1, 3 or 5

 Sample space, S – the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment

eg: spin a coin – sample space is S = {heads, tails}
roll a 6-sided dice – sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

 Event, E – any subset, or part of, the sample space S E⸦S

eg: spin a coin – the event E of getting a head is E = {head}
roll a dice – the event E of getting a 1 or 6 is E = {1, 6}

 The probability of an event E, denoted by P(E), is given by

( )
( )
…1
1
 Probability values always lie between 0 and 1; 0 ≤ P(E)  1

 Simple event – a single characteristic; event E = {2}

 Joint event – two or more characteristics; event E = {2 or a Jack}

eg: spin a coin, S = {heads, tails} , n(S) = 2

Find the probability of getting a heads. E = {heads} , n(E) = 1
( )
P(Head) =
( )

eg: Roll a dice, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} , n(S) = 6

Find the probability of getting a:
a. a five (5):
P(five) = P(5) =

b. an even number:
P(even number) = P(2, 4, 6) =

c. a number greater than 4:

P(greater than 4) = P( > 4) = P(5, 6) =

d. a number greater than or equal to 4:

P(greater than or equal to 4) = P( ≥ 4) = P(4, 5, 6) =

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More notation – Venn diagrams

A B
Event A  P(A)

Complement of A =  P( )

A B = A or B  P(A B) = P(A or B)
Union, everything

A B = A and B  P(A B) = P(A and B)

Intersection, overlap

A B
B  P( B)

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Addition rule; ‘OR’ formulae:

KEY WORDS: ‘OR’ , 1 trial = or , = and

A B A B

= + –

Set A B Set A Set B Set A B

P(A B) P(A) P(B) P(A B)

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A B)

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B) …2

Note: If A & B are mutually exclusive (disjoint), they have no

common elements, no overlap, then
A B = , n(A B) = 0, P(A B) = 0

A B A B

= +

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) …3

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eg: State whether these events are mutually exclusive (ME) or not:
(mutually exclusive = no overlap, events cannot occur at the same time)

a. roll a die: P(1 or 5)

mutually exclusive (ME)

b. pick a card: P(K♦ or 10♣)

mutually exclusive

c. pick a card: P(10 or ♥)

not mutually exclusive, there is an overlap (10♥)

d. pick a student P(Hong Kong or Zambia)

mutually exclusive

e. pick a student P(Hong Kong or male)

not mutually exclusive, there is an overlap (HK male)

f. pick a number P(odd or even)

mutually exclusive

g. pick a number P(even or prime)

not mutually exclusive, there is an overlap (2)

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eg:
a. Pick one ball: S = {4-Orange, 2-Black, 3-Grey} 9 balls, n(S) = 9
What is the probability of picking an Orange or a Grey ball ?
P(O or G) = P(O) + P(G) – P(O and G) ME events, P(O and G) = 0

= + – = …2

b. Pick a card: S = { ♥… ♣… ♦… ♠… } 52 cards, n(S) = 52

Find the probability that a 6 (six) or a Diamond will occur:
P(6 or ♦) = P(6) + P(♦) – P(6 and ♦) not ME events

= + – = …2

c. Pick one card: S = { ♥… ♣… ♦… ♠… } 52 cards, n(S) = 52

Find the probability that a 9 of Hearts or a Jack will occur:
P(9♥ or J) = P(9♥) + P(J ) – P(9♥ and J) ME events, P(9♥ and J) = 0

= + – =

d. Roll a dice once only: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} 6 values, n(S) = 6

Find the probability that a 1 (one) or 3 (three) will occur:
P(1 or 3) = P(1) + P(3) – P(1 and 3) ME events, P(1 and 3) = 0

= + – =

e. Pick a student: S = {m-Z, f-Z, f-C, m-C, f-HK, m-HK, m-HK}

m = male, f = female, Z = Zambia, C = China, HK = Hong Kong 7 options, n(S) = 7
What is the probability that student is a male or is from Hong Kong:
P(m or HK) = P(m) + P(HK) – P(m and HK) not ME events
= + – =

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Complementary rule

Complementary events: two events are complements of each other

The complement of event A includes all outcomes in the sample space S

that are not part of event A
eg: roll a dice, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
if A = {1, 2} , then the complement of A is = {3, 4, 5, 6}

A
+ =

Set A Set Universal set U

P(A) P( ) P(U) = 1

P(A) + P( ) = 1 …4

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eg: pick a ball: S = {14-B, 10-G, 20-Y, 15-R, 5-P, 9-V, 11-O}
What is the probability of NOT picking a black ball ? 84 balls, n(S) = 84

event A = NOT picking a black ball mutually exclusive and

event B = picking a black ball complementary events

P(A) + P(B) = 1 …4

P(A) = 1 – P(B)
= 1 –
= – =

eg: A group of 54 students are having a party. There are 23 female

students. The rest are male. If you select one student, what is the
probability that this student is male? 54 students, n(S) = 54

A = student is male mutually exclusive and

A’ = student is female complementary events

P(A) + P(A’) = 1 …4

P(A) = 1 – P(A’)
= 1 –
= – =

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Conditional probability rule:

KEY WORDS:
‘GIVEN THAT’ , ‘CONDITIONAL’ , dependent events

P(A | B) means the probability that event A will occur given that event
B has occurred B then A

( ∩ ) ( ∩ )
P(A | B) = …5
( ) ( )

Conditional probability implies a smaller sample space

eg:
a. Roll a dice. What is the probability of getting a ‘2’.
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} , n(S) = 6
P(2) = …1

b. Roll a dice. What is the probability of getting a ‘2’ given that the
number was even.
( )
P(2 | even) = …5
( )

c. Pick a card. What is the probability of getting a ‘10’.

S = { ♥… ♣… ♦… ♠… } , n(S) = 52
P(10) = …1

d. Pick a card. What is the probability of getting a ‘10’ given that the
card was a Heart
( )
P(10 | Heart) = …5
( )

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Multiplication rule; ‘AND’ formulae:

KEY WORDS: ‘AND’ , often 2 or more trials

Two events are DEPENDENT if the occurrence of one event does

influence the occurrence of the other event.
For example, selecting balls from a bag with no replacement

After rearranging the Conditional Probability rule …5 it follows that:

P(A B) = P(A)  P(B | A)

P(A and B) = P(A)  P(B | A) …6

Two events are INDEPENDENT if the occurrence of one event does

not influence the occurrence of the other event.
For example, selecting balls from a bag with replacement or if you
spin a coin twice, the outcome of the first spin does not influence the
outcome of the second spin

For events A & B to be independent we need P(B | A) = P(B)

The fact that A occurs does not
influence the probability of B

So …6 P(A and B) = P(A)  P(B | A) …6

becomes P(A and B) = P(A)  P(B) …7

So if events A & B are independent, then:

P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B) or
P(A | B) = P(A) or
P(B | A) = P(B)
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eg: Select two (2) balls from a bag containing blue and red balls, with
replacement, S = {2-B, 4-R} , n(S) = 6 independent events, so P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)
a. What is the probability of getting a R and (then) a B (in that order)
P(R and B) = P(R) x P(B) …7

= x =

b. What is the probability of getting a R and a B in any order

P(R and B) + P(B and R) = P(R) x P(B) + P(B) x P(R)
= + =

c. What is the probability of getting a R and (then) a R (same colour)

P(R and R) = P(R) x P(R) …7

= x =

eg: Select two (2) balls from a bag containing blue and red balls, with
no replacement, S = {2-B, 4-R}, n(S) = 6 dependent events, so P(A and B) = P(A)P(B | A)
a. What is the probability of getting a R and (then) a B
P(R and B) = P(R) x P(B | R) …6

= x =

b. What is the probability of getting a R and a B in any order

P(R and B) + P(B and R) = P(R) x P(B|R) + P(B) x P(R|B)
= + =

c. What is the probability of getting a R and (then) a R (same colour)

P(R and R) = P(R) x P(R | R) …6

= x =

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eg: Select two (2) cards from a standard pack, with replacement
S = {♥… ♣… ♦… ♠… } , n(S) = 52 independent events
What is the probability of selecting two Kings (a King and then a King)

P(K and K) = P(K)  P(K) …7

=  =

eg: Select two (2) cards from a standard pack, with no replacement
S = {♥… ♣… ♦… ♠… } , n(S) = 52 dependent events
What is the probability of selecting two Kings (a King and then a King)

P(K and K) = P(K)  P(K | K) …6

=  =

eg: spin a coin, roll a die and pick a card

spin a coin: S = {heads, tails} , n(S) = 2

roll a dice: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} , n(S) = 6

pick a card: S = {♥… ♣… ♦… ♠… } , n(S) = 52

What is the probability of getting a tails (T) and an even number and
a Jack of Hearts (J♥) ? independent events

P(T and even and J♥) = P(T) x P(even) x P(J♥) …7

= x x =

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eg: pick 2 cards, with replacement independent events

What is the probability of getting a 6 (six) and then a four of spades

(4♠)?
P(6 and 4♠) = P(6) x P(4♠) …7

= x =

eg: pick 2 cards, with no replacement dependent events

What is the probability of getting a 6 (six) and then a four of spades

(4♠)?
P(6 and 4♠) = P(6) x P(4♠ | 6) …6

= x =

eg: a coin is tossed and a dice is rolled, find the probability of getting a:

a. ‘head’ on the coin and a ‘4’ on the dice independent events

P(H and 4) = P(H) x P(4) …7

= x =

b. ‘head’ on the coin or a ‘4’ on the dice independent events

P(H or 4) = P(H) + P(4) – P(H and 4) …2

= + –
= + – =

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eg: Use the Venn diagram to prove that events A and B are independent

A B
0.2 0.3 0.3 P(A) = 0.2 + 0.3 = 0.5
P(B) = 0.3 + 0.3 = 0.6
0.2

Need to prove that P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B) …7

so LHS = P(A and B) = 0.3 overlap area
RHS = P(A) • P(B) = 0.5 • 0.6 = 0.3
so LHS = RHS
therefore A and B are independent events

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General examples:
eg: A group of 50 students, 20 take English, 25 take Technology and 15
study both subjects. One student is selected, find the probability that this
student studies:

50
English Tech.

5 15 10

20

a. Technology
P(Tech) = …1

b. English
P(English) = …1

c. English and Technology

used short cut method – overlap area

P(English and Tech) = …6

d. Technology or English not ME events

…2
P(Tech or English) = P(Tech) + P(Eng) – P(Tech and Eng)
= + – =

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e. not studying English
P(not English) = 1 – P(English) = 1 – = …4

P(not English) = =

f. Technology, given that the student is taking English

( )
P(Tech | English) = …5
( )

( )
P(Tech | English) = =
( )

g. English, given that the student is taking Technology

( )
P(English | Tech) = …5
( )

( )
P(English | Tech) = =
( )

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eg:

Labour Liberal Other

High income 44 92 4 140
Low income 90 34 36 160
134 126 40 300

One voter is selected, find the probability that the person is:

a. a labour voter:
P(labour) = …1

b. a high income earner:

P(high income) = …1

c. a labour voter and high income earner:

used short cut method – overlap area in table

P(labour and high income) = …6

d. a liberal voter or low income earner: not ME events

P(Liberal or low income) = P(Lib) + P(li) – P(Lib and li) …2

= + – =

e. a labour or liberal voter: ME events, P(Lab and Lib) = 0

P(Labour or Liberal) = P(Lab) + P(Lib) – P(Lab and Lib) …2

= + – =

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f. a labour voter, given that they are a high income earner:
( )
P(Labour | high income) = …5
( )

( )
P(Lab | high income) = =
( )

g. a high income earner, given that they are an Other voter:

( )
P(High income | Other voter) = …5
( )

( )
P(High income | Other voter) = =
( )

eg: Assume P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.4 and P(A B) = 0.3, then
determine:
a. P(A B)
P(A B) = P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B) …2
= 0.6 + 0.4 – 0.3
= 0.7
b. P(A | B)
( ) .
P(A | B) = = = …5
( ) .

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