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Probability and Statistics Notes (Extra)

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89 views138 pages

Probability and Statistics Notes (Extra)

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Rahul samant
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+ Probobili ty Model ond Axtone % piss tibabaes a > nivyg about 9 as a Mathematical 4ramewovk for ¥easoy Probability Uncestanity -» Psobabilistic models + Sombple Space . Frobabi\isy laws = Axions of probability > Simple Examples « List (Get) of possible OutCormes - = = Samble_ Sb (2) mee Sample: Space > a. 2 List must be + = Mutually exclugives” Tt Sh One Caamot Tapper « Oriy One ov come of Exhoustible = * Ore ot @elauen* F*° 1 Out Come holbeeup ther another atime - mm Gamble Space = Collec Htuely : ig. the Out Carnes or we Par’ not Porgotion or lett out ay any B04 Egret ce on Uryigns’” gsonulerity ** = Perey Eien! st deem ey Bogs. meqhgidle Se dgn's toke ettect into Concidenation while Calculating Porobobility - Mavi ot tacsray gusce tuimige Oc? =: Gamble Spice: Dis oete Example 5° + fwo rolls of o 4etra hedal dite (2,3) aud (8,2) are ditlereut « = 3. 28 Aas Pe = Sequential ditteeuce yA 32 i: ale k= Rincawoll Feal 2Ind Way to write e Sample Skace > . 20 op 3 24 37 3233 84 $1 4,2 43 eo - eo er > Mot! : saat 16 Bossible Outcomes .— “his Example hag dinite Sample Ghoce = Sample Shoce + Continous Exomble t+ * Wa Shota dart find Sample sfeace ot hitting the pomt (por dicular) inside the box - Oe fo) Oey ei} L» oo Sample Bhace because trewe ae » Eveut > A Subset oF Sample space + Probability is agaigned fo Events . => Axfome =~ 1) Non = Negativity + Pl(A)zO 2) Nesmolization? P() =! 3) Additiuity : AnB= h, ter PCavB) = PLA) + P(e) * Axioms means Qround sules that every legit peebabiliste amodel Should follow 2 “Pl [rsn as Sn) * PLES) + PCED + a Spores. ot a yes Desiive that PExobabilityis Aways 2\2 PCR) = | (using Ind axiom) P( nuat) =| ke a => P(A) + PlAS) =1 lusing 2rd axiom) Pla) = 1- PLAD £) _, Phobability is clways > O oO ePl® 4) s 5 (using Hest axiom) PUN UN) E = ~ icra 3 Fe Guct- Phobobilrty af AUBLCH PBC A"® gisjpint Sets | - PlAvBve) = P((aveuc) = Pl ave)+ ? Co) ae r => Play+Pis) + Plo) id rr property ~ i by) eS A), 4,03, - | - oAncare diajoim Sets then 2 - PABA, vay ~---uAn) = PLA)4 PlA)+ --- + PlAn) a rr . 5 Exombplet-- Probability law ov fivite Somple Space +: Let every leossible Outcome have jevobability 1/15 : = : =Pleypie (Ver O.2)) =? : = Plfx=if) =? ‘ : ' 3 ~~ nd Fell 1 y. — Paty ioodd) = ? I —P(min(xyr=2) =P | . aOR = First Vo I) Solution ++ —— Ply) is (1) o* (1,0) = PUd+PUd»= 78 =P(fel)= Vie= Va — Plx+Visods) = Slio= Vo = Plmrin (ow) =2) = 85/16 > Discreet Unitosmlow +: SS + Letall Out Comeg be equally likely (‘Nlof then) - « Anew , Plays vuimbeeot clewests oh Alas Jota) umber ot Somble ‘Spaces [paints + Combuting probobs lity = Counting Quer: Continous uniform low y sfworwauden numbers in fo. i - Uniform lows =: Trobsbility = Area tb 3 —Plxyy ela) =? = P (ey) = (0:5,02))=? Baier aAray Ely) = P(K,9)5 (0°5,0-2)) =? => ‘© bectuse area of abeint ts O od ~ —» Probability low? Examble with Countobly °° Somple © » MU +Somble Space * $12, ----- } = We are giver Oli ee os) 273) — Find PlOvtcome is Even) NUN, Rae pe Play+ Pl4yy ----- - = » Countobly additivity oxiom = it 4, 4, - Eveite then = Pees.) = PANE RO) + “ne Poobability of difeueuce of 2 Gueuts 5° EIt- P(cuo)= Pla) +P(e) -2P(e) —» By 3rd axiom pteuo) = Pfc) + PC? =) UN UY A eucs Cle- 0 B= Ove 5 OrE-d 4 L) - 4 P(a)= PC) + Pls) i P(e) = P(BO)t Pl) Pays P(e)- PCe)+ PCO) + 2PCE) =n) Using ay + 0) pra) +P(8) = PCcuv) +9 P(e) F Bec) 0) 270] te Pow Quer: Nehave aciass of Students , aud we auie told Hoot 60% Gite Studeuts ase gevisuses aud FOr/> love chocolate fall im bots Categor ices Determine tre tovodobi vy ey 2 Pe nccsmcn caldom stead Sur cHals nei cone nora Chocolate lover. Sole PlAuB)= P(A) +P(B) - 27108) > (60 +30 -40- Whoo >PlAvB)= Yo => |=Pl Aug) = Pl Ae ne%)= ‘ho Lec_02 +- Conditioning and Boyes wile = slecte Outhne = » Conditional probability « Gnree imboxtaut ~cule= = Multiplication vule = Aotel prodabitity thre = Bayers’ vele P(t a)- Axeat A) HO}= JO, 5) aa |. 9S)- (ufos) oo. * = > pl%,¥j) = 210)-0 Ww) bd S Eitteencthia tory |p a fail or we did Sornettuin wrong J = We Cat Upe|do tre Ste wit’? on i+ because we Con+ make a Whole square Using pomiz. We eed clunents (9 ral) fy Cover Hse oven: AVUUUU UU UU EY eV UOUy eed) PR ee bars pace © Eeouablity Bats Oe does hit +he front pide Square He this vebreseuts that ita Fsobabi lity ot Bome event ic C Hen tieah cust is “oer Qunantacella. 285 Gaetan e On ks highly unlikely 40 occu. ee —> Psoblern Solving Fy —Shecify Gamble Shace. = Detine fprobobility lwo = Gdarity event of interest — Caleulate - * Conditional frobobility =~ imc ot Plals) + Probobility at A given Hot Bw Ocewsied Bis Our mew Univeuse Vetnotion = Alesuming Pl6) 40 Tee a2) p(B) PlAle) je undetined i4 Pte)= 0 | PBIB) =) Lo tip bagically qneana tha} Big Not Occutiing, fo thee \ point i Calewtoting pale) Ag a Conaqueuce ot the Eqn i Pt ans) = Pte) pale) - PCA) P(ela) = Trip Cau be inteiprered of puobobili ty ot ne) ie & duaction 6+ B Ocowts x multiplied by te tHaeten dimes A Occuse Wher Grave alueady Occusied. Ber iereasiine secre moscrnet cet 11914 Onda puobability thepe ase just rewly defined fauobobilitics, fam univeige. q Let ®& be tne event * min (xv)=2 a Let M= max (%,Y) 4 ere u- PlM=i]8) =? yo! ce Boluvlon + Ple)= Se pines) = ROM! Ee on 20) wo) - ~ p(B) S/lb Nt ees tin Pirate) = ae ai oS Que + « Event Ar ainblase 16 Flying above Hegpteied on vador hase Event GB: Sornetiing VUUUUUUU UU UU UUUUE Ue Eee EU eee te}a) = 0-99 cy P(An®) =? ay P(B)= 2 Fla)= 05 ple‘la) = 0:0! cin) PLAIB) =? A est See p(pelac) = °4 olution t= io P(ang) - P(BIA) P(A) = oe GP (8) = c : Pe + pl Bla) ec) 2 os, Ox I= -OFtO+ WA = Odin) a l440 a Examples: Dice Ee cca = 95 ple) 1445 P(AnBne) = Pla)- P(SIA) - P(c lane) ; aleng he Ys aBNc = a rnuliply 4 we ge along : Anene Angnc ANB AC ANBa ce An Blac an Bnec Prot PlAanene) = e(cans)ne) - PCAn6) P(e lane) p(ans)= PA) e(e14) =H Cue, O20 do PlAanwnc) = PCA): P(BlA) « (clans) Wy we can prove fieip Jon lasiger numbex of wate 4 Total Ratility thm’, *Divide aud Conquee . Putition ot Sample space ito A), A, , AS - +Hove P(B1Ai) tox evens i P(8)= P(A) P(Bia) + P(A.) P(B1A2) 4 PLA;) P(8/A3) = > Pla) P(e Ai) 6 these Save oa Ss st >this ip the weighted vasa ge at Psobabli 4 aHAL ond B, * Bayes Tule PLAn®) =O 0-0 => Eqnis Aotintied . St Don't Corfuge independence with digjoint gels. Examble = wae Heue Aand Bane |e] dig j omt but aue ex tere! depeudent on each otleern. * Conditional indeboudeuce 5" Se check the weepeuce of Maud B given” hap alecody Occusied &* P(An8|c) = PlAle) P(Ble) = Cond to cheda Gon ditional wid. ‘paurbabsly oe Conditioning may offect indepeudence: =- Ip debved ap indebexdend = Conditional indeberdeuce , ge © 3 Unden Buebabi lity low. Exauble 5 Agsume WAicnulenene Indebeudent aud giver thot G" hos Qraused » Alara (Sane Torco indeberdent . UUUUUUUUUUEL UU UUUUUUEEELEVeLEULoUUY Lecture 05 = Wigwiete Rondom Vasieblea % Random Nlosrable &- ACOSO CTR GUC An asgzignment of a Nalue (numesicel) $o every oapible. But Come. . = Mathematically » Asie tiem | the sornble frpace dp jue sieol mum besa Continoug ov diz cuete aleight (Wd) Sc yp Say! bo Fo go €5 Somple Space (inches) ay (hd) Bee ee Sees) gondem Nfasiiables defined On Ee eh Gari — Nototiong > ° — Hondem\Nlasiable 6 =r fre fom SIR ) Sap HW ; 1 tusom the Be eee Oe Crea *Fusbobility Mosa tnx =: oe ; (“Prrbobility laws” 5 fuobobility Sita banen ch og) BG) px(cc) = Plx=s) 2 P(twen 3) (4) xt) = pxle) =o Be ex cco Tip means when we have Byles oto, | that mcove we Nave Ox and lai! the Combined . alt the Out come® - bility ip | ei at Com boaeee until fiargs grep Vo be in geberdeia x (RandeomNasiable)) exomble. =~ xe curb ON es eer * Topas) LUVUULULUU UU UU UU LULL UU EUUeEEUEe UUM eS a= 3 Geis = px(e) = bx(k) = B PO< ') Ge i) 5 Sy Vel times yey hime? =O (\-P)" a Bo eae 2 i (-pO-») scat) ee! Neen ae > geome tic bre eOP Aoy HO a and 500% 4 Be . px x intesipuetations + — Coutue of quoul ty of PME = Arverege iy Sasige yo of Hebe Htions of the exbauimert. sexamble >: Uniden on 0,1) --- 7m px &) = ale a | = Sains se a NAN oO — ieee ieee ee ¥ : ee: ny) UUUVULUUUVUUNy LUN sj VUUULUU ULL UU UU UU U eHobobility * Exboiment =1 2A for dice 18 Holled . KPBS 5,64 DNomesical Samble space Waren ur Orb - 3-6 6 STheuefore » We con caleulare thie experimen’ ouesoge Ovt come = Nastianiee ) org ete ™ ’ Sea oi fosped Expasiment oS : A Con ip tO5Re et HT => Non mumenicol foomble Space ovesog® Outcome = cos No Saupe!!! > hle con not find Nasiionce., oug cite In Cope where aomble Sace j2 mon Numenical . 4t Now, We need to Convert non -numetical Semple Pace fample Gpace to Calculete Nastiance , into numexical Average ete . Let's define o poudom Vasiab le lav)? =HNo af head obtained ereonmeneay: 2 yfem Gehe, Jonped a fas, TTY Outcome . Ronde Vsioble azzociolen a pauleulam sui With each Outcome af the ample Zbace « Rassdom Vaaiia ble * “ dig crete vaudent Cantinoas “senor Rois \asioble. i ee Ve alee A Yandom Nasiioble dincuete vf tie sionge (hea Nalucwe 1h Cow Loe) ip eithete finite or Countobl a Set of oll =f) ae 4 =p Courably Ne iategenP Example = X= Marka obtainedin a exam, pe qu ch tion fo- wt po 3, Xe fO-bt, 0-93, 0, | ot = toto! no dfValues=5 = Diswiete vaudom Nasijable UU UU J UULUULUUUUUUUULEULUULEETEVEUUTVU eel — Conivoug of Expessirnent~ 3 = yee fo! af Plsero) "8S Wrong! |! P(x) 218 ee a p(x-2) -'Is Note!!! Buea Value of % cou difeient — perobebr tities - have x Probability Maas finetiona =: 42 PME COLONY eu Oe a eieiee pondem ‘asiioble “1? jy obbeined 4 pn ele ot of a puobabilis te be. ozpighed Lo each Ansougn probability Nah 2 a 4 where 06 |p since expentment , Outcome ~folue thot % | the probabilities <*" Thin 12 done denoted by pes) can tore. + Bumestion 9 any Nalue of > pre at %> i yun thet Mu tore: (oc Vide 1 Z + fpusabotil 30)» Example: A fois Coin ip toaged twice - athe oe sroidor Vasisable , which yepseseuts the number ot al Me ied Detenine ee UE of a (nna ai Meals \ to Ere x= fo,1, 2} PMP: ple) = p(x) - + plo)= plx=o) = b(vt) =1/4 BE =BOED= OT) 24h | given axel + pl2)= bOe2) = plan) = 1/4 4 Ng 3 X=O ord Plsc) = Yo 5 X=! re) = Graph of PMP Oicene, =o One ofa ie ‘ Aesioge Come. Sean la) + @ya : Sk Note!!! b (Oo) nae! w pe P } @ Of PAS! % Gombles’s Ruin (Borlrabt) &« s= SUES ACW pecs, Two Gombleug A and B, Sequence of ~soundg bete $1] 5 pera aie Aeuusnin woundep 5 4-1ep 3 Find the brobobility thot Awing _) Wing and B is suined os eae i with i’& and B Atoe NBN ce be > Agsuming Sstasitz oe Stuoteqy += Condition of tisat Step eee, ae atin N Ce Let PE: P(Awins game | Astou'z ot $1) S| p Pin +9 i » ) eben | (aifterence equetien) i LUUUUYULUUTovuuw Ascume Pr- % ee pms aoe 3 bet oc 4 =O a aes Bae Geek CO 1 Lp 5 es cel teen Paom ques a I4by= 1 4bl-p) = | 4ptapre 42-44) = (2b- ay Veto by) 4 yUGUL yy Substitute D inl = - a e teleay geet eee ~% + cobstititeinlPi= Oy aw + 8 (¥b) ; = A+8 Pye) = Alt A) Ve) a ao Cro a('-th") = UUUULLULULUELUUY Pie (\- Ole)’ : SUD ease Final Exbsiegeion ‘ole : a . a ting Up) Lee eek cP G-ue) NE * Bemoll’ distuibution +: ARVGO is Moidde be demmoulii distrisbution +f x have only Dboasible Naluez ,ie Oor\ pl. 0)= ps POs EP. & gent + fe: x6)-0f Vase iPthe event Ocouma dicot ce © j if Hee eveut doesn} Oteup a E[x] = '(b)+ O(2) aa E[x]- PCD LUUULULULULLULLULLLULULULELEE ET ULELUUUUu * Binomial distei bution ae ae Wee ta. 5s Se lve pueseutah a A Coin with PlHead) = b., ip toszed webeatecly paid = indepen d oy Oni dimes . let X dencic Ihe number ot 4 Paes a Ree sm} Ten X ie a. binomial tiaidem Nasnable with povometer | Sptnibution +6 be binemial Ordeany: SIDI ah Foro J be independent oF ls tuals should cack: OSU aeHeue head Gan algo mean Aucess. Coin ip to; meOL nal A ip tozeed a of brobobi lity =| M> No of tale bo p(succera) =P ye) —@ puobobility of gelling "K'neadp elk) = pl ong (n-h? tailp inv m Asialz oe ap ial See ae | kdimes, (n-k) times i‘ si ‘hia Constant i ynultiplied bacwute to take Wwio _- aceount all the casee lvvepbec tive of whee. a positions wohee head Occusied . BCE Die the bxodability ef One Rid Case Only. ig = ie. p* (ese , Selecting VK popitions tor heads 40 Oe Out of NM positions . Me: Pk) = poa= “ee PUG Ke No of Auccesses to oceuse m=z No ot Jotal trial |everts p= probability sf Succece in One +101 ye proba: lity of dailure in Oye Saal Joie : Example > 3 Coin joases , Pind the bsobobili iia Deda . = 962 ING 64 total heads Occuned . pl2) = plx-2) 0 afew, TH HTH, UT TS aa cia ev) = 3/8 — Uping binortial distaibution pa)= 3c, ly (y) 1 Sie eee) aes 3 Rene Aye | oblained inOne * Binomial Exbaugiow. cane Bl o binomial Exporrsion (req) =" quicsol tesinn ci pelea tea Cb) gale —» Mean atibimomia) digtributen>- Ele] = b Nesisuce | ot bmomial distuibutiow = Nab) = pq oa pli-b) Que =: Find pode PF Yara tain Coin whenrdozzed ne N-K dimes - ‘ ava ((0 \y oye Ce (y) ic Nee y= plx-4) « i el) AS pl) ala) ple f° Ne @ losses and 6 heads aue to be Exon ble © Rememiiicurareo i Sh 2 TA eaeo xara Oe alana =k Se oifo. pls) = Cals) = Se oe ONS VUULULULUULUULLEULULULUUULUG ao Cg ee ys --- 2 cob Que =: Afoiy Coin ig tossed 15 tmeg . The. buobabili a Que ip a geting exactly Sheads jb —_? ee eee aN Moral + uialp B= K=No ot headz 5 plid= Ne, (4 > ple)- ela) = 0-196 Que = Afar Coin iz tossed 10 Hea - Vthot ig the b ot obtain ing atleast ZQheads . use (90) golr: atleast 1 headg = PU)? pls)+ +? — plo) -P) 3 2 ae 106 6%) > pe) We (8) oe ro em ore 2 : : " Que = Ators Com ip tossed indepeudes tly fous times . fhe pus ot tae event “the muraben times heads shown ub ia the the mumbex of Hmes dailp Shown ub ig Foal 5 x= no of heads x 4 pla) +elw = 4c A)s cul) VE Te d eS Neen dee An unbiaged Coin. ig tossed an indinite rumber x , Bt times . The probobility thot the fowith head apbens ot the Io” togs is ° Vir We wand Siheade at ony positions in 7 tosse> i pts) - %s ('4)" 4 qin head abbpeass at 1olrite: head abpeast iva pnid tog i Probobility thet tre ig - PR) % probability of a! Ge, (4) x(%o) = toy =10 ULVULULLUULUUUUUY pares cine Geuicoi > (he =. fine puobobility cf ablaining otleast 2 ti2) im tnroing 0. foie dice ttimcs is R, Sol+- Puobobility cbeblaining 0.6 om dice - 6 x= No of non abpeas3, l P (gent) = pla) + pla) Pet) aE pli) — Plo) ar = 4, (43150) te (WO O'= & (83). ~ 4m ( 54)" i Peel ACR? aan Uae =, pees Ani) = B20 1296 Neo 828 a pxoib 21x6 12.46 Ly IUULY oh ey t i246 lu a VUUULLLULELUULLEL Que = Alparr of dice ip thvown 4 times. Whot isthe 4 psobobility ot obteining a total af + ot feast Probabil + of obtaining + = bla5 I 1 oa PME ciey a cn wor Cuneta dt 30/au J heer Ye No of Himes Fis obtained , Plu) Cy VE oe Plgoe) = ele) + Pl» 2p U4) (%) GUO Ee Once = 5 alk si - (%) Wher The pucbsbility thet e Serew mmoiu tactisied 6 Comba] 1 defectue ip O-\. (ne Combouy Belle Bos ina packet Contomning 5 Screws and queso guoava of seblacement it One or More Suiewse m the bo aye found to be defective . The buobobility Helo fore Wouldhave to be webleced ia » = Buceesn = defective foted ; failusie = Non defective: = Pleuceess) = Pldefective Seued) = O-] X- No of Haney Sues that aie defective pl) = °Cx (ox)'(0- Pac ket 6 Jelusinen if k>O we PO) + p(2) + pl) splu) + pls) = 1 Plo) 4 =1-%p (01) (0-9)° = I-G.y' = 0-40 pUULULYLUUULULULUOUNM Ly (ULULULULUULLULULULULUUUUL a a the puobobility sf a Shooter iting a tasige} ip 3/4. How any minimum numbexg af timez mupt he|she te so thet the [probability of rtting th tuuget atleost Once ig wore then 0-99 ? Zol— = gle Stet ted : Hitz the tasiget Pigeez the Lasiget i (suceees) (foi lusie) PUailuve) = V4 P( Succes) = 3/4 Ne Total Shots fiuied M=Neo sf stoic hit the taget a Plevent) = PO) Pt —i9¢ pin) =1- ble) Dele Od. Le Sle co (8/4) (a)™ > 0-99 | eal = a > 100 Epis Ola Ca Oe iso es Minimum Nabue df N= 4 : a # , 4 Bhott Anould bF fined Atleast to make Sure puobobility at hitting the tasigek atleast Greats acne auc 0-99) Que = {he Su and bstoduet ot the meen and Vaxtiance ata binomial dictuibution OM 04 and 128 Hep pectvely whe fi diptnibution la f , Newlx) = BY im Mean = (mpr nba) = 24 ong web?q = 128 i lanp)(4g) 24 (oayg- 12800 ai Eze) 29-9742 0° Uf 247-44 120 ie { (24-1) (9-2-0 > Be ebae = | 4 5 E eo 2 Ambo24} mtb 206 mo=16 , afb: 256 bmomial distuibutio = Que Suppope atsin Cain ip tosacd Benes ond you grunt Me™ atheads abtoined . G}the Valve iak , You get 2K dollays . What the expected Value Klo ? 4 Hol Foin Coin ia tozaed Biimep K=No af heada obtained = pli = 8x (Ms)? %= Amount wor = 2% " &, (,)+-= ao Ebd = 6° %, jk +2 Cotes? ¢ De a Wi) 4 Weare oT epee eG Dra 8e, Dh -- +88 28) ()-5)% = 28-6 95.6 is aveniage] Expected mores Bly nyb) ¥B UG b) = B lar ety, wim ond giver all evens ae indebendeut ot each Peer). Te hg Gere fem. el ye @ lyyruP) = Cry ea) a a *Multnosumia | Exponent T - This 13 used oben the triolg have Wore then 2 foossible. Outcomes - E,, Ea) Ea --- Ex gue the possible Outcomes Gay ieee R,. are tne brrebabi lites » PU aie atte ale acre pest fosinred - = Xt m2 + %3 + Xe => x a Hmez £, Oceusie wohen Sout w 0 x Fee eben ti : We ut 4 Be ay Ea " y PUUUUULULUULUUULULEUYLTCUULUUee &” Hapa sq-- mean of Squaney 5 mean = square Value Vows (x) = E>e] - ue Poa ee ere Sones 2 3 + U defexmine Kk * pe)| ol | 2k-1 0-2 | 0-6 UD determine mead ¢ Vasttiauce ot the PM ty “Total psobobility = 1 =) Ol) 4 0-24 0:5 + 2K-| =! >] 06) 0:6 Gor Memiepoeabe) = ol + 2(0-2) + 3(02)* atom S ai EIQu Os uit Onoat 2 >> 2-| PP om ieee : a (Oe) gtoz)+ 16(0-6) - = (0:1 + 13 (02) +8) - @! Pe 104 = ab = 109 PUUUVVUUVELUULULUYUOLYCULUUUeY ULUUULLUL Gol folt: integcal NJoluez and the {prrobobility thet x” rakes Rene Vallee ye ia ipreber eval Ppeere Variation. scan, dake cll on — negetive. takes the Nolve COMMIS) ch thot & xe = peo , pie) = Ko Pee =o Teel ak ar a | val Rede meek! a) Koes 0 = kK- lo Blo) = p(x 0) KO > In the. fallow! 9 foble , % iB the dicsueie RN aud ote) ip the ferobebty dencnsy - The Shanjorg devotion ae \ ae % \ 2 Le Res Meso! Ieae = onlno te Oi> lnk Natiauce = 13+ 4 (6) 290) = Sl-8) 2 gia gee: Gosh -g.b= (ay 2 18x-2= “36 aes, ena hon= enrnies, ayo Lo of, The boebobility Due + Gy the weatrere ip geod (whieh nabbeus with ucbob lity 0-6) Alice walkg the 2 miles to clabs @ Apeed ot VE 5 milesper hous , and othe wipe — otowcycle ate Abee dot iz 30 miles mina, chine time T to get Ge gides hex mM Wher ie the Cloge? Time When uoalhing eels fol Time Lghet wading motorcycle = 2)s0 Ler Hme be the tondom Vasiiable “% . Biss 2s] pe |o-6 fo Meon = aHec) = 20-6 + 2.x 0-4 Que =. 9- 6-4ece. frie dice ip salled a latige murmb oe (ye wnesn Nalve df the Outcomep iB? Pole Wey Oe OnaonG, <-> 123,65, 44 { Oa eS lesa |e 6 : : ves We live lve [velvs 17s oyUrteors eel bl Re (ys 2G) sro Se fo 25 6 Sitean Value ot the Oiteemes ip 3'5 > >. Ree ices Frctrtiry Doreransow + . Wee Gxt bere, Unideten Dig oeren REN = itelaig imMegral > Noluee in 19,1 4 a : xs eects 6 stm’ total Nolucé > fa, or, 012, s+} A ~ ~) PMP. PX > plx-x) = Vn ~ pe) =n | E = eae a > : ~ Mean = @+b) ; Nas C4) = ay 4 5 neo —— 1 r 4 c i i - Example, L. buevioug question al Mem= 166 3:6 j No = So. 86 7 t Que = (ne 2 sidez ofa fais Cole ane Lobelled ap O aud |. El The Coin ip toazed 2 times indeben dently . Let wid N denote the. lobels Coupes ponding 4o the OutGomes defined a 7 ~ Pore taudem \asiable Ia of those tsses pected Value Ex) Coounded oft bo ey pyar mmin(M,N), the ex! a decivel phe) 2 - Sol Me= Out come a| divst tors al, N= Bacome of 2nd tons (an) = lor) 5 Co 5 ly, ty) a s= Hie[N) 4 ULULLLULLUELULTLULULLUUUY ° ! pe) | 3/4 Yq Elm] = O[84) + (M4) = Va + Expected Velue + let % denote the no df hong We piudied 3d a vondomly Selected day. The Probability that % caw” foke, Vole x has the following fowm O17 %=0 K% 5 96-12 K(35-%) 596734 © > Otheswise. piece) = Find average Sle & Tped=| OG Olt Kt2K +4 2K+K =] Saeed a z Ov\ 3-0 oe SREB ple) =f 3500-2 panes WX 4 2 Avetage “% 26: LO : + 2{08) + 3lo-8 +4 (or = Olow) + 11:18) GES or 9-15 Noure iio > 4" iY UUUUULUUUY J NY UU UU AMAL UUA AULA, abpeaHs 4 timez mumbex of to22eF equines folt- A Coin iptoaacd until ahead abbeap of the til let KX Ueb the i ouceeesion Then the expected idlua oF SETS Ke total tozece be beiobabrlity of Corning ub heads ‘ * y 2 © a p pre 3 Expected Nolue = p+ pl-P)2 + 3bt-py + U-b) + Since f= '/2 (ee ge bese US 15/5. > €: | ) 3+ 4% 34 : lg ee NoJue ae or vio of tosses ate.quired PA techie reduces 0,|,2 detective pieces Ina day with petobobility VY, 2s, lg . Tre meanand the Nasiiiccie ot the somes at defechve bicces produced by the pagehiiel nina day) Seppectivel y eee Po ee ost Getertee bees pool ye | et vs puroducedina doy Mee eG) OO ‘(2/) + 20%) = 1 Vorb: Ebe]- |Eta)= 0+ z)a ale) 1. 4-1 % Plemmenin, Nioi(x)) = 175 q ve =- An examination paper Sh One MaHk each with each question anauser fetches -0-25 marks Sup po#! with ovina Each incomsiect loon Studentg chooge they anaose Honderaly shine expected martes ob puobobility . “he sam total by all thege Students ig? Bo) = > WwW 4 UULUULULUUUUUU CY Y as OY LULULULUL UL ULL ULUUU - A Expectation * | a ATndebardece st Random Vanioble = 2 edladsiree CN CLS ul P(x exe! Vey) = Pleex) Ply) a if ohare inde bouden} evestiz * Averages Coen, Expected Naluez) =~ i Zw eS ee FI Uged +o make the pesidicton dora experimen t+ al and uged! to define) the diet butions sta, gota. i Peeoear a6 Ol). 3°O. a Enupected Valve = ka se en) 8 (ay; Wels Vel) 94 S45 | UAIETHIEN SE 4 eae Sule as ca 8 a & c ay 4 { ry Simple overoge Weigie’ average ' RN: x re » yea ofa dinette Ee Mavasien (oo expected Value af RV 3. => List conbe finite or counradly 09 ve Thia worhs Pendiesiele en)y + % — Beuwoullt (pb) =: E(x) = |G) + ofl) = puy *%—> Biromdal (wp) + ea wee SED = & xplex) = oS xe “Cx eee ; Eb] -3 (BMC. big™™ - opal ce oa n : A 7 nb a Ga) ba Usp fe vensoe 9 placed 1 EO With J 4 ae eed \ m-l ea Rhisigial bicotiall tan (btg)!) = tC > Subatiterte @) in (1) t-- EOD tor a X& Bin(nyb) or bin (Wb) Ie a [eta-nb - Lineasity © > EGay) = ECOLEG) Ex) = z oc tse) * se opts) = ie Be Seine ever ae Independent stheiefoue (ale A Coin Plx-6)= FFEPPS = 9 SP 4 Ls prebability shot mem 5 pai 144 don cg wil) deausi before first sucess (Head) a x iF 14 SSO Say 2 ee. Ms = qk! oe — (1) ye = qe pe oS Beet hy oe Greometaic Satie diet With Hesbect to Y baa | [> SSs 2. cas anlar eal a IH Bly. wae my ee =p 5 multily oh a e ' * tt : . fetes. an Kao EL ge i > Subptitite @) I 0 > Ell= p< -7/p. > JEba- are Je > |EDA=\9)p Yy Elz] = (Hed camesOuthxGucceg)) + gldrailune) + Eb) x (succeg) =O } X(failurc)= | > Eb) of sth) > ElxI-%, LULU ULUULLUULULUL LLU CUTC URE CUUTTUTe UUM Theo =: Lineawity w=: Elxty) = El] +E) Pee 9 veto El): E+ By) ~20) e yp ley Etpplret) = PoP = 5 Eb - Spee) = > 3 Qs mass <(0,) PCO.) ae Rcaenee PN gt pase bya ee Place. YY) 7S Y ee ne pee Peo) > Lee Ploess) +24 - Ebd +Pely) LHS = RHS Heuce proved jer theo is voll fi f eudent event. HSE SS (x4y) Plex A 0) > oe Sie [Plx96) Y=¥) eee yp (sexcoes eee ~ Ey be x VP oS eal Puy) Ply 4) \id fom bots indeboudent Pea pane a | Mies Elex+b] = Elox) + Efe] =aElx] +6 E foxes] © aflxl+6 SL. By dehination. 3 Lexi) rey - ¥ ac Pl) + EbPY nk er UIS=RHS aa ! i * he Pirs) Bucess, digtuibudion t- fer eemetaiic. dis tai eka Xn Fs(P) ip +he time 6/4 +the Bucceapes " Mave) => El] = Ely]+i > Efx]= aa EG 4 «! P UUUUULULULUUULULLULUUL UE LLL CL ULL LeU a * Negative binemial diatui bution & ° ‘ A a > | Parametewa —» Ty) deEntercion of Magalies i {fom ao Lbinionaia) diptuibution nal story *~ indebendent — besinoui!ib) terial pat nocd failures, )y Selece the it sueeens - if +e Non smegative , Neither binornial example, > ° lays end in i " loco looloooolea! |” ina o-5, WN) ee ceo OEE : cd ees a ee eo Sa lo of failics betnces Se ee ea eV |p (Q\ SP eb WS ecex 2 a Rondem Peumutatovys of 1,2, Bind the exbected numbem ot Jocal Maxima, . + Local Maxima +> (30 14@5@) preze ate local maxima hea dicate RN» af position { having a--- ym, Whene ms 2 eal fee 1 Local mania {ejen eT Gey tet oT) Cee ee) ere ae ea UI S ay 5 ExbectelNoluc. ttl Combination > indicator => Fundamental by idge St Peten’s Tanador = ; ie eee ora Get O° , whene x19 4 Ribs of fain Coing unt! Hust H Ineluding the Suacegp . X= Neof toto turala Money an adtey in tsia)e NES xa [BOMe ros Ne to? Wok a e A Yq V9 va") Kaisa _ \ The numbess af Outcomes} Ocaiwiauces dust c dinioimt Yn Juteuvals asie ind pendeut Fe 3 exer 0 sok Sore x2. (000! Bonen toni day X >No df Decumoniera= Se xt) = [8 Qc G\=v) m= 0,1 Foss et (es : Peas. wisoph a yo ka 2:|| the beat chat Single Ocanrance Gevall in | ja tena! tp a ieee lala i PCxh)=15 = | || the Bebo bt Lt ot ae occurance cote Saeeee | Eall Him ee ces Cbcthy 22 )= Bln) 4 PulrY | = fel) + fy (h) _! ie Se ee Shab ing 0 —wmall at the 6 | a tha 4 xamble ¥ = Su bbe 2h pho walle adreniul at Hh Swit ied Apeticton is Se onl Rs owe i HEtOtUras re to emai ‘ 5 —Peuled —2 fee —{ Se ad J mln _peditad eect [ Ee, = Beale oe @ P{xla)-0) = 6? ape oO} (Goel 5) 35) = Pl) PU) — pay « = 1-6 | (sh) + Ge (5a) aes aoe (SY Ato Centon tndustoiial folan}= accidet Lake [lace + of leven 2 month Uh is bab anol el no accident tn the itis Pim Soe oo om Mout eee | | at Pan aestCN ee eray onl (Nee me TGS ea A fouinted Men MMtat cat. meg .2och\ine ae: “E55 hos! Heng + Zacks bo. ge hos S080. posi Hors fi typisi makes | error bor 6500 pes. Wibod is tne distribution of nub: of bwers peubage 2 what 15 theprebtnata bagehas n rrans Wbstts she byab\ that a6 fs fase elupoys 2 a ~ al alee ee = every pes bage X= ho of esto See Se pl Bas = et (ou ne ot! 72 = mel) (=> a fri ten ais s Jala ee so san\S | ay Plxtnso) = C2 c= bob5 = y Tf : Gal PIAA RY. cd Bead to Remo aya eto) G56 065) ended OOOO} ee eee Pons For ConVeufeneen 9 os. Ss ... Pbew) elason diets ku tian te: cole ie a a ey aes density i a Bao aa ey SABE (e(x a1) == oolx= 41) | Ea seis ete Ze = al i BS en ew NS Sat Crxe=18)1 ea raat: 5 ESO Se ne A ae Ul= ateget ate a t Let Xs Bin (np) no; b> then, 6 = etn. = = of. breot- Ca ea a Yen) pave glia Ss " A foir Colm is fopaed 20time ond peobability ot obtainivng bheodz 40 20 plod: *%, (4) EroupleD +: Afoiv Coin ip toszed 500 Heres cuit fuobobility of oblamieg 150 Heodg - pliso) = as 3) 500 pNow 1f We Ace, Ex-I is Coy he rCampure: bulnee 2 '* Al te foke. much tme + B Pigeione is Gaeta! eee DTI DAI) NIL er x Pission Rondem Versiable =: Oks Gas ten SS Ty Congider the Case of dinomicl gondem Nasiiobte (RV. C4 CW female yee binomial becomes Very high and ‘pp? iaNiety dignton dution 5 given by digton bution Conver e® to boigeiot az mp > Meo af the binomial Sipini bution Vals)

poisson formula. a KI pl ies) = Ee) + P(s)+~-- + 208) Be ee pl) PGs Berek Oued Die). <\- (om oO} WW 2) =0°3233 SS eh fne mumbes 5f accidents, Oc.custing ina month dellows peission diatoibution with meon a2 5:2. fre. buobability of Oceusserice ot lean theD occidieuts ina plat dusing a Hasdomly Selected month ig a a a ot Occusance Sf less then Ocdusience af more then or gue t0 Loceidient x Doce idiots 5 (succeap) (foilwie) Meat = A= 5.2= mp X= No of accidients happest pleut) = Ple)+ 20) ln) = ew Na Kr pa) oc 8!) eSh(62) = 0-084 i ol ii yeep abet sist (ouded aanvers \eticlls = OL fre mean of vandom Nasiable is ? = Bol Ef) - 2 oe b@) 1 Vike ete eel eal Ute.) Uru -2 =O Urtdu-u-2=0 > Ul (usa)-1 (ut2) <0 a =) | => Meat =! at (Rej) : a Que TP a oaudom Vasiable X hag poission diston bution with mean —~ 5. then the Ex beota tion Flow} ip P @ a YWUUubUuoUuuuTnTveurm Ele] = EDAtana] ~ Ele) +4) +4 Tepe) +4 upc) +4 Void = EJ > Ebe}- us5> Epe)=30 > 3044l5) v2.54 —+ Flees) Que => “ine peace thot a bast oManutactusred by og octive | “ Com pasty ip 0-03- GA Gag ib Buch parts ate Relecte gaudemly and ingested , then the lovobobility that leost 2 fants will be defective ia ? Bol =" past pee defective (0.05) y= total no: of defective bart Non defective (0.95) eee ee be) Pls) \- plo) =bOD 2 15x 0:05 = O45 et ces K\ ; ee a we Plevent) = I a - eee v6) ea mae Meroe a O-17 PUR UU a a # Exbected Nelue = ek = ASS nel = ig x : — ot nr ~ Bee se Oe Ae A se cOe)) el]: 8 14 these ove AL As, - -- An Asal an) PAD: Pi 5 riz o Rosige rumbet5 and bf 1 a Smoll Value + The teials acre ire pendent or & Weekly debbenden ee then. tHe of Ay Occurs ia abbyox , Ria(a) ~ A= = Ri es) tos: Binomial -+ Mw Bin (n,b) eye = oo) 576 7 o=nb ia held Conpiant. Po)=(") Be Robles Pwith Ain ae K eye i Aan Os > Kl nt) (2 oe ae KI] lopn7% ae. aan ov Pi): er ah pas Expected Valve KI wesul > DSM N+ 7 and boo we get 4the game Poa Probability of Stardom Vasiie ble a2 oF binomial distui bution . MUUUUV IEEE LNy yyy Is J AUUUUUULLULLUUUULUUUL , ee Continous ondorn Nosita ble : ee SS Life Hime ofa tube Light K= Mifetme af a -lube Rogns 5 Cau't be quieaten thera yeod % Cantoke all the. Value. fsiom O} to 365 ona mumben tiene \mnonth Pee Ovlcecy se lh os bhr ---- Vday - 10day AD Be ivecs > % €[0, 368] => Uncountable ond @ 3 Continous RV ‘on Destination 5, A Random Vasiable mumbesr of Nolueé- iE it con teke uncountably | ip Continous Exauiple Tp tordom Vasiiable modeling n the Weight of Gesitain individuals. | | = A Hardon Nasvable lifetime "Aube tight i Since % cou take Wwhinite snumber ot Raves nn ron ee” bobi\ity of a fangle. Nevieble omupt be Zus0 Lnebability of a Arrgle woah , a don't tole about exalucting the prob abi tity ot en tne Situation cl Prana ot defined by Plaexed) = J fe Llcose 400) ja Hee PDE(buebability deity taxetiouat x. 1 Hence We We medel Carbain {jars a= ees) d ~. $Rlo) =" (nae barca 850 Pla: % 018) = piss a With in limits of the mntegsal 5 PO) is measily cout > placx card) = tos » $60 [ere 5 tee) () =P loteet8) Gabby aaa j desg ihe of Se sy brebability bo unit feagth- deuerty funch ove > poo debility q. obout the fosiob that 2600) quer au ide! RV ts) Lie’ Neue Se oe as ch ELS = oO Jovoll % Sitio Jt) dee 2 pe wmeXen) en Sooke 2 DWUUUUVUUuVvuvm UU D yy Uwu uN AULUUULUUL LULL UUUUUL (iy © ip Xeblaced 64 § (ctegral dx 3 plaex et) = Juorde = Ayjeos undess 46) w dram x-a 40% b + Expected Nolue aud V osiienice Apc ienale es expectes olen? Re cele w Ep. forex a os eo Ele etal’= J (x= Eby} 460) dx 3)' om Niro BQO (ebay . ye aXtb thew . 5. Soe \lasely) = 0° Sass) (e)» Wp tee POF of a Ry ip even Byrn metsie 5 Brennen cates K Zvioe iP fle) =¢$) = Even Begone tie tse - Mesu= Eb] - feioe let ocPlo) = qe) (eae) = -00 Fae) = =) > g~ = gl) > odd fx - Ede f job Javeo = Joo -0 10 + Life time of an efectuic bulb is 2 Sauder Vawable with ie, Kx? jlhene X is wieogused Im yeaue, Of the minimy aud woximum lifetime of bulb ave loud 2 yeaus Hespectively ‘ then the Nlofue of K ig i-- Jute = Kx? i 3 > H=3 > ~The quobh ata fax ig Shown indeg foe PL) tebe analid” ae! denaity tne Value of la ig > cas e u o h * fz 10) dx -! { Ques Fe Por ofaty “e iz FO0= (42) /4 For otfo2] and otueuudipe + fhe meau Ub of RV iB we l4-%) ; xelo2] AO a, 5 Boe eal = ae a dx =x ok ste) dx a (ue ee) mot 5 * oe Quer Let % be ao RV With POF?: O72 3 \xlél oe “es 3 lees O 3 othetwipe The lbuobobility plo-5<%45) iA —- ae (rex ea) +p (94%-5) Plo-54ee5) = Ge ‘ 5 u 2 {ord a { odx = Jos = o-2x | 2s | 5 u 4 eo 2 0-9 (0-8) +0-1(3) = O:1+ 0:3 -Or4 UUUELLEUVUDUUTUUY y me ie fe) tine” Vas) = EDG]- EL)” Hen ( ree 20 = yet 9 eaw oo a a © Eb = { sdtcode = | Wyre [or (yee) au ae “3 os ca oe a a a Cork +t p) eee 2 {oe e*dx : . 3 =) Cowra es eae J a - 6 by Syrametny hs ree UVULULULULLLELLELULULLUT | Quer The Niguce. St RY % with brobnbility OP Fl) = dole ie .. uct: Pind the Value of A Ruch shot function FOO 1B Valid PDF $= a(x G-x) tor xelv2] a gol [re de eI : fac (=x) 1 1 x = x3 43x - 2% Safe vaxt a2 a (“He ) AS 48 2) iS IO a) =| Sones -4e 62) aa. ARK = sa aD aan tear l ws Height Gnches) + Gauapion os Noumal Rordom Nasioble =* | Soe i —> Bell Ahabed Cusve, foe Ancsmnal Radom Vasiable haz the PDF of the foum > igh eal —————— SSS 3 bo! lye 8 1 exh (SO ) dx mee oe / P(x £38) = _ is insegaeted « 4 A yo) RY © +> tg g wtoudasid Mer =} @Noumel RY ee Redleon ate ln 2 | on 4 : ig SY + stond asd) RN, . por: Fe) los sl z..| _ « exobuoted by mum ei cal ged in yables'| Colewlor ore | precon the Nalue ot Goa methods aud 1? Nion - i # Non -Standand RV ia these , Convesd i Standand RY. .. THoustonmaton > MULUULLELEUUY 2: 5 Recoll = BdxHb > Fle] -abb wen prondand RN, the Random i = a gion dasid One « i; OY NJasiiable Genvesits into the Key points 5° ‘ dipisibution 1p Bymmetaic about the ie The intenval Noumal mean (a). 2) Ayten (** u) = Dyeat xe u)= Vo = F a) PG) =< eGr ee) = Ya ; x Et Ee ou e Piel tean lie as aay fan | 5) TH X ip Real Gy easeg. et = (u) and Vosiiancel~) a wen Yzaxt ig alao a, neue! RN! having the ear a Beleiies) ad Vesiersc (vo) Bees ee eee pail RV recite x ip alpen voumal Ry : Masiiauce = Qpata? ae mmean= Athy-+ asl, and i #No of Stordarid deviation t- See Selarion § Plu-~ £XZUts) —> Nov ctandasd } => Convesit +0 Standand iW (f= ie cathe Ze = — = a POO)- dl) < Pluer)~ Plze-)) SS bu ) : i ae x [se ans Ee On sy = O15 80% = O-6896 or 68°96 -/. | + Rey points = 1) Abproximetely b8/- of the Valuer asia fou 70 aie Located within One plaudaud deviation obout the mean = p(u-~ One pid deviction. ists buon ane aby. ofthe Nabues of anyroswmnel 3 located within two Standauid deviotien ofout Ue 5 42648 deviation pur 2xeU2~) 3) Abputoximotely INH 1. of the Value of within 32td deviction about ub « Plu-arexe U4 Br) = = 0.9544 = 95:44 y. aay monmal dint. asic locoted OF = AAT amnal disteurbubonn | Quets|| 2 the mona af 00 students atic. noumally digtaibuted with mean bly ond ctandaud deiation Siqn (Gio. Undem _masimal Cusiue. betuseen %=0 ondZe\s35 ip O.4089 {| __tll Pindthe numben of Students mhose Weistor is amore thei ihe Studeata 2 slg epg doen oncqualto b4\a. 3) Bstudente Lihose weight fie betirou 65.and Vg Goli||_tL= 6BKq = Sew agua aE CD etwas CNA = S 4s}. “ |e Convent +o standaud foum - Pa P( xs 194) 9 P(x > ou) = ples uaa) eo = O:5- 0.4089 = 6-O0918 OeDRx 868 =7.H = students | loose ‘ 22 students hagve “tueight goreatex then A2Kg in the : er Tin ee Gias 30) Oiss-terd ériieisetenae at EO 2)|| Plxe ban, => 2 ocu ceuee) «Plz 4143) : om = 0-5- O.4og)- 0-090 298 piudents have weight leza tre b4 vg i Planeveniys Ole ye) ) =Dpge, be9b ¥90e = 204g = “209 sztudert: lee Abbuox 205 sidenta have weight gueotet then big ond leg, the “A ig L = — Ques | A sondern Vasiioble X has mosimal dip toi bution with reeartoo — Ino. if PCinaex 41900) = +8 the Pliooe nKe" (e ) (oo-uy= _(x-2/e) ee 3 2 = the 2): eS

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