Cipla (Q2FY24 Result Update) - 27-Oct-2023
Cipla (Q2FY24 Result Update) - 27-Oct-2023
Cipla (Q2FY24 Result Update) - 27-Oct-2023
to US$220-US$225mn as a new quarterly base. With key launches like gAdvair & Shareholding Pattern
Abraxane on hold but better traction in base business we expect US revenue CAGR Mar'23 Jun'23 Sep'23
of 9.4% over FY23-FY26E. Promoters 33.6 33.5 33.5
Continued traction in one India portfolio MF/Banks/FIs 22.1 24.3 24.2
Branded business continued its volume traction and market share expansion across FIIs 27.4 25.5 25.7
therapies and is expected to grow higher than the IPM going forward. The company Public / Others 16.9 16.7 16.6
is already growing above the IPM in therapies like respiratory and cardio. Supported
by the ramp-up of chronic therapies and new launches, we expect India revenue Valuation (x)
CAGR of 12% over FY23-26E. FY24E FY25E FY26E
Valuation P/E 23.6 21.2 19.5
With its strong India business franchise, and traction in differentiated key launches EV/EBITDA 14.4 12.7 11.4
in the US, we expect a net profit CAGR of 18.3% over FY23-26E. We introduce FY26 ROE (%) 16.3 16.3 15.6
earnings and maintain our Accumulate rating with a revised target price of Rs1,334
RoACE (%) 15.8 15.7 15.2
ascribing 22x FY26E P/E. Clearance of Indore plant and launch of Advair & Abraxane
could be an upside to our estimates. Key risks: Price erosion in the US, Compliance
issues on its facilities and adverse pricing regulations in India by NPPA. Estimates (Rs bn)
Q2FY24 Result (Rs Mn) FY24E FY25E FY26E
Particulars Q2FY24 Q2FY23 YoY (%) Q1FY24 QoQ (%) Revenue 258.9 276.4 298.5
Revenue 66,782 58,285 14.6 63,289 5.5 EBITDA 62.1 68.6 74.0
Total Expense 49,444 45,262 9.2 48,350 2.3 PAT 40.2 44.7 48.5
EBITDA 17,338 13,023 33.1 14,939 16.1 EPS (Rs.) 49.8 55.5 60.1
Depreciation 2,900 2,994 (3.1) 2,392 21.2
EBIT 14,437 10,030 43.9 12,547 15.1
Other Income 1,763 1,230 43.4 1,363 29.4
VP Research: Rashmi Shetty
Tel: +9122 40969724
Interest 258 256 1.0 164 57.4
E-mail: [email protected]
EBT 15,942 11,004 44.9 13,746 16.0
Tax 4,384 3,026 44.9 3,780 16.0
RPAT 11,309 7,889 43.4 9,957 13.6 Associate: Candice Pereira
Tel: +9122 40969633
APAT 11,309 7,889 43.4 9,957 13.6
E-mail: [email protected]
(bps) (bps)
Gross Margin (%) 65.4 62.9 243 64.7 71
EBITDA Margin (%) 26.0 22.3 362 23.6 236 Associate: Zain Gulam Hussain
NPM (%) 16.9 13.5 340 15.7 120 Tel: +9122 40969790
Tax Rate (%) 27.5 27.5 0 27.5 0 E-mail: [email protected]
EBIT Margin (%) 21.6 17.2 441 19.8 179
Change in estimates
FY24E FY25E
Particulars (Rs mn)
Old New Chg. (%) Old New Chg. (%)
Revenue 2,57,965 2,58,869 0.4 2,78,105 2,76,437 (0.6)
EBITDA 59,332 62,129 4.7 66,189 68,556 3.6
EBITDA Margin (%) 23.0 24.0 100bps 23.8 24.8 100bps
PAT 37,823 40,161 6.2 42,630 44,724 4.9
EPS (Rs) 46.9 49.8 6.2 52.8 55.4 4.9
Source: Company, DART
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
US Sales (Rs mn) yoy (%) - RHS
Source: Company, DART
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
India Revenue (Rsm) yoy (%) - RHS
Source: Company, DART
35,000 22
FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
EBITDA (Rs mn) EBITDA (%) - RHS
Source: Company, DART
35
30
25
20
15
10
Apr-21
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-22
Apr-23
Oct-19
Jan-22
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Oct-20
Oct-21
Oct-22
Oct-23
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jan-23
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
US business
Highest ever quarterly revenue at US$229mn with a strong double-digit quarterly growth
of 28% YoY for Q2FY24.
Strong demand signals and BD&L deals drive growth in base business.
gLanreotide market share has increased from 18%+ in Q1FY24 to 20% in Q2FY24, as per
IQVIA Aug’23
gRevlimid sales were in-line with Q1FY24.
Focus is to grow the core revenue, resolve the US FDA observations, maximize partnered
launches and also de-risk assets in order to accelerate new launches.
Currently there are three complex products undergoing clinical trials, with filings targeted
in FY24 & FY25. Symbicort is one of them where clinical trials are expected to be
completed soon and filing is expected in Q1FY25.
The company plans to launch one peptide product in FY24 (market size - ~US$300-400mn)
and three to four peptide products in FY25.
The company is also planning to do some para IV filings in FY24-25.
Management believes contribution from differentiated product pipeline is 70-75% of
total filings. Focus is more on reducing the number of filings and doing only differentiated
filings.
gAdvair & gAbraxane progression during the quarter were as per expectation and expects
transfer process to be completed soon.
In Long Island, New York, all of the Invagen facilities has completed cGMP inspection,
while unit 3 facility has received VAI, unit 2 has received no observation from USFDA.
The company’s Indore facility has received OAI status, to which the company has already
taken corrective measures and have made satisfactory progress as on date.
At Goa, the facility has received CAPA implementation and remediation exercise has been
completed. Cipla will soon submit requisite data to enable the re-inspection.
The company will file some inhalation assets shortly.
Certain products have seen better volume share, and for some products the company has
taken price hikes as well.
gRevlimid has seen an increase in sales from Q4FY23 to Q1FY24, while sales for Q2FY24
was inline with Q1FY24.
Pricing environment in the US changes QoQ, although trend is more or less the same and
don’t expect further acceleration.
Symbicort filing is expected from multiple facilities by Q3FY24.
For gAlbuterol, market shifts between three version of gAlbuterol, and depending upon
the market choice of variant, market share may vary. gAlbuterol’s current market share
is ~12%.
The management has highlighted that the company has two inhaler plants, one in Indore
and the other one in the US.
Goa plant capacity has increased as it is primarily focuses international market.
SAGA business –
South Africa Private Market business grew at 12% YoY in local currency terms driven by
traction in prescription business and OTC; Outpaced overall market by growing at 10% vs
market growth at 4%.
SAGA business is focused towards private markets and select tender business with focus
on margin expansion.
Growth in SAGA business was driven by performance in oncology, CNS & CVS & hospital
segment.
Increase in private market mix in the overall revenue lead to better QoQ margins.
Other highlights –
Depreciation and amortization, include partial impairment of non-operational
manufacturing unit and impairment of acquisition cost of intangible in the form of
products in the US.
Cash as on Sep’23 is Rs68.1bn, post payment of dividend.
Combination of both volume and price has played a major role in gross margin
improvement.
Improvement in EBITDA margin was also on account of decline in logistics expenses as air
cost has reduced by 8-9% and sea rates have reduced by 16-17%.
As per management, three businesses are running ahead of internal estimates = US, India
& SAGA.
PLI benefit for the quarter was higher than Q1FY24 and is included in other operating
income.
Balance Sheet
(Rs Mn) FY23A FY24E FY25E FY26E
Sources of Funds
Equity Capital 1,614 1,614 1,614 1,614
Minority Interest 3,058 3,058 3,058 3,058
Reserves & Surplus 2,32,464 2,56,343 2,90,616 3,28,795
Net Worth 2,34,078 2,57,957 2,92,230 3,30,409
Total Debt 5,204 6,704 6,604 6,504
Net Deferred Tax Liability 6,401 6,401 6,401 6,401
Total Capital Employed 2,48,740 2,74,119 3,08,292 3,46,371
Applications of Funds
Net Block 91,007 86,519 81,547 76,018
CWIP 6,892 6,892 6,892 6,892
Investments 23,076 26,297 29,976 34,181
Current Assets, Loans & Advances 1,73,659 2,04,191 2,41,995 2,84,763
Inventories 51,564 58,666 62,648 67,659
Receivables 40,570 46,158 49,290 53,233
Cash and Bank Balances 15,646 25,301 46,727 70,059
Loans and Advances 985 985 985 985
Other Current Assets 33,995 39,094 44,958 51,701
Notes
1,050
930
810
Jul-23
Jan-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Nov-22
Dec-22
Aug-23
Oct-22
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
Oct-23
May-23
DART Team
Purvag Shah Managing Director [email protected] +9122 4096 9747
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