ee ee X Introductidn to frobability Te chan he quot fasinly very phesbotry- Ext: £, He m poss tl 2, Beobabiliy thet xe may reir todo v_ the -treery,, of _pstol ability » - he examimaber | & Baste Defintbans |! in — Kantor Exponent Spimeach troik of av eumonk repeated, Unde bie Sanu tonditiens , the eerie us net posoible cutcom spy set om te nied, ak cagted Peder OF Ext Tessing a cour Trrowing a dice > Outcome +. The Htdulb On eutcomy st o Hondeny experiment ts cattdFr Thr, . Expeument is called Trail ; « Possible Outcomes te cablecl, vent /cases, im pas aad Cempeund L Com paste. event ent is called simpte fh it Erde a singe an euUECEMEe og he seperiment Othroriuse callid cempound Oy composite event . xt In ‘throng a dice iy the event ef getting 5S ub a 6imph wine wy the evertt 6 getting an even number (2or4 erc) ae covnpounl / compete event . Samphe Bink : The outcome “eg the random experiment % called a sumpl point Samphe Space \ - The set Of alt possible outcors of a saondeny eopourne db called a oma ae Space: + fi sample. space is denote hey Ss. : + Evow. element a the Semple space tb cal&ed a omit poirdk - 4 Feta) Sf a coin fg tossed , the Head (HJ ancl Tail (FT) then, Surnpe space S= fH, TF Ih throwing a die 1W2wm possib&e eudcome are , the pasciblle outcemes are Oh oer 5 OG, then, : Sample Space Sf 1,2/3,4,5,63 |of a * Mutuaty exctusive evert | Mukuatty disjoint evenk:- Two events A and 8 an said eee be Eee Actuate ov rrutuatty digorrt if they one point th commen ie ANB = > Ex © dn throwing o die, she samp. SP&e so $i2. 3; 48.5 A {24 , orfszy tee ane = 2 APG aru mutuany rclurere ert. R Indlependent_gv Dependent Events '- Two events are independent if the happenung of ang. one does not clepend by the happerung of any othen . Otheiwise events ate satel be dependent . Eee Tes BON aan Bee s 0 ° © 0 Oo °@ oO os 5 balls (2) ball ix mot replaced ) [Resutt % om dvaw depend er pokt densa = [a8 conta oO ° ‘ 5 bates S balls - 5 274 draw ds sf bau doesmst Trvtependent Events SPN gn, 4H . ) Wt dacs ,Fchaustive Cases OT Exhaustive Evenig Or Tre’ no. és essible, comes: - tofed NNUMbE ef all possible eutcomes a Yandemn expouiment 6 called exhaustive events 6r ex ave cobs = ‘ rent In teasing & cet t- TWO exhaustive cases — HET m2. In throwing a det Si exhaustive cas —> 1,238,4)5)6 a Ja dieing +e condg prom @ pack of cards 52, ¢ Favourable Cases on, Favorable Eventt:- F The number 6} outcornes which result the happy ng of the event 1B called fov oun elle couse -, Ext- In throwing s tino clvee , the number oF cases fecvowrrble to gettin the Sum $ te OA, (A), (3, (3,2) «e x Mecthemadtical_ or Classical dlefinttion of Probabitety _ Te porehobelity of the happening 64 an went A PA) = (lA). Number of favor n(s) Totek number of possible corey exhaustive fri. In the tossing of a cot Probability ethin @ Head @ Tak F gtery pA) = £ Pilt)= Lk 2 iz Exe dn throat co chet - ene 8 Ccuowng - "d e- we probabiliey eof L pulse tA =Ue Howe same probability oY occ ynine 2 Pb) elt, 's Pcs) = Le are Fue lchely 3 Pla) = He 6 PEC) = te Sele :Note :- c i cl . 4. Gk an went A can happer tr 7% noays ancl bact in 1 ways, uitine all of these waoys me eet Jikely 19 occur. . Aw Thien the probabllity of happend Spee PiA) = Number of favounale coseb “H-] | Tatar number of possible cased the event A ss 4 the pstobability net happening Pa) +o = ip = 1-2 Timp. event a. O< PI SL —>]P(d)=0 O¢ PIAS LE pis) <2 oe PtAd = 4- pla) P - l-y Q- Whe is dhe chance that a Seap year, belectecl af nandom , will untain 53 Sunday 2 Sof” Leap Yeas —> 366 days — [52 Week) + 2doys cur Thete 8U2H fwo days may be J. Monday f Tuesel 2, Tuesday ees tiled mesclay Here totol mo. of possible 3. Wed nescl oxy £ Thwesdoy Cobes = 4. 4 m . < peat ee Total me. of favourable cS. a Pet clei «ide Seturlaty core = 2 Satwielar Sun day Santng | Po Moncton. 1 PPADS =2 Three caing ort tossed , find ‘the poobalatl'ty, of 1 Be geting ak feos 2 headgs~ oe BH Totat no. ef possible cases ans 8 ante Total no- of fovowrable cased ase + THT _ TTH HTT TTT a Fr3 A bag contains g white , 6 sud. and = blk balls Two ballg are drawn at random find the probal- Fuby thot Srey with both be White. gr: Total m0. of balls - #16 ts = 18 Buk of 19 balls , 2 can be elravwn tg '8C, ways , Total no. of Possible casee = I8c, + Ue (2 18-2, = Ue 2X po = 183 Out of 7 white Balle 2 canbe drawn fn %y. ways, Faveuvable mo. cases = Moy ots tt : G2 e 7 ck y aaa > gy Reg ured probobélrty PIA) = aL rd £53) SLa Note Pack of cor 1 eee a Black ‘ = e v (3, Diomond, B Spada 1 Ctuls fs Heol - [2 fac carts tach suit consists 4 he One tee Teck i ne © [2 Condy One Jack 4 nine corde axe aumbesed from 9 fo Lo D Pour conde wu drown from pack 6 cords . Find the probability thot i) at ge cliamonds, 8) thee is enc cond &{ tach Sut it) thew one fu Spades and two heascts . pA? fi vadds cane dravin FreMh: 0. “Pack eh'5y | ogcae tn $2¢,, ways. . Total 0 6 Possible cosy ~ 510, «i bla ® SAXKSIY Sox 4gx AraK x Mae + BFoyar (ee . 1% diamonds fn. the pack f4& cai be 19C gq WOAYS D Yproson by - 180, > FES ses = 4 1, Passouncdite: O° 4 ie a ae - Te paquimed Protebtly = Sore ~ ares qhow ont 4 «suite , each conteuming 13 corrdg teuporrable 0 of caseg = Wc, X Mc, wy XC, - wt = 13% 18K13 X13 Required Probability © _GXIBXI3XI3 . 2197 = QFotas 2082s— 2 epacies ext Of 15 can be crown (& 186 ways. | aheots C8 Ef (2 can be drewn ic, Uap, | Favowtable mo: of cose « Ben Be, | ; = Fax4d Rag obeakr Ca’ ~ Tex7e. ~~. A468 Ar. Pre ‘¢ 2Po 72S 20825 itien Theo Pre babi Lr x [Additten Theorem of Pro babi lity Theorern 64 Total Probability Additén of. Probabi hig Sha and B are any Fue events ther. ' VP( AUB) PIA) 7 PCB) - PLANB) PLA+B) PtA) + pla) — PLA and&) NS 9h A B one swe vmuek Aisjoint event , then "gn* ios Be { sr PCAUB) = pra) + PLAI~O Pave) = PLA) + PLB) Orv PlATB) » Pla) + PLD 34 A,B andc ae any three event ew Plavaucy = PLA) PUAJ? Pre) - PCA (Bae) elena) a PLANGNC) GA Aa yee Ay oke 1 mutual RXCLUL Cup then the obabi lb, Ef the hepperfin one Wer then is, Pp 4 b PP t *6 of [Plav ase. 1 UAn) = PLAS E PLA) Heer b P(An) ] Fy 5 ‘ e He Tie eM bail ae Gh td 1S dividect by 6 or @ ’ TAL sample Space of the tandem expartment ig t~ STi need than le# event A? “Integer chosen 1g. ati visite by ohh th Men A ef 6,12, 1B, -..., 1992 | (A) = oo 2 38 they, [piA)e nt_. a3. NI) oo Gt extend g + Uinkegon chosen t% otfurst bie. Bye! Bef Beet, e208 (G) = ate 3S a ets) * Ses| j Teeae Since thee LCM of c48 I 24 » rkegen awosery "6 djvreibe by both o£ a’, a one (te & wp divisible Pe 24) q Te, ngs fod 148s. 2 n (Ane) quiz -9 n@)= n(Ane . 8 ue n(s) a0 Novo by ceclel Htton ineoyy of Pobabilty Gare © PCA) + PCB) ~P(ANG) as pac 8 ool ancl fed = S@ 2d 2c0 z 1 a eae seal ihe 0 student passeg a Physics test 1% 2g cond the Ho bability that: she pasges booth a physic cand cn @ ed Rest ts: rae The: ditty Lhad he posses at tof ene debt ts Ys What te the prcobobibty that (red pidises the Lith tesk 7 ‘ Sl (ot Ub define the follevatng event 7 At The dtuclemt passes 0 Phapastcs eat Br The okucent posses an Englishy FREY Pla) > Zs, 0 PANG) = Le) p(qua)> 4 By acletthd [ow f prrobabitty ee p(aua)= P(A) PIG) * PANG) . - 14 4. g tro) - pte) + 2 + le — ey = & Jever nuumben, O71. . first Sa” In ce random toss be tuio dice Sample space § iy Ss fr2ay sch xf 113,445,693 nfs) = bré Ex. Tie chee axe tossed « ind the frcpavitiy ay 4S ri cing . te, © ok ar Gt we cefime the events Ar ‘Getting an even number er-the first tie! Ae FAA EX F128, Ay S 6? J mA) = 3X6 =18 : ptay = mA) 2 18 LS) Be bso Thee. .. iting TH Sum 6f the poirts on tHe two dice a gf f (16) fe PY, (2S), (53), (Yi) F ns MB) = . Ba 36 + Algo ANB-= FlAe), (6,25 Ua) t “-m(Ane) = 3 “. PlANB) nano) 5 tet ei Ts) aust Now required Probability tts Plaveys PLA 4 Pray. P(A na) = , ae Tg yorse3pre 3b the probobi tity of the howe A winning the race © Te Ly. cond +he potobabi lity of the hove G@ winn! He same sace ub Lig puthat ud tthe probabiuty Arok one of the forse uiite Driv the reer. Bln Given Probabiliy ef vohnnting 6p horse A 2 then eca) = : s thet PUBS > + Prooabi lity of voinning of horse & oe # : Since everit Af @ arc mutually digjornt/exctuar then PLALB) = PLA) 4 PCED = 2 a ES Find the powbabiliti; of dvcuolig a cand promy o . We ahuppted paris auch Ltret the crower cod vs wither eo king on qustn. St~ Apack of se cands contains ¢kenge $ + queens Uk Us cdefrire the event: Al. The craon cond is kin Rt Tan dracon. coud 16 qtiecn : 4 mlA) = Ae, =4 m(e)~ Wa =4 a. PLAI= 4 - 4 PQ) > Are. 4 S3e, 52 a Ba = Since AFB are mutuclly Aesjoint then pPLAUB) = PLA + PLB) - 5 a aS S2 aae Fee On a giyen race, the oakley ii buape horgeg { — g 243 ptt padiStoyid te 5 4 Aaah 2 that a dead Aeat tb am fone bina the chance that encief the wins 4 . AP Bima a duad tat (in why alt tha four oe teuur same distance tm same Hr) ub mot poseibo thoy the went wu mutually encluswe . 3 ther POAY® ek Stace odds favour of A ohe L!3 | “ras B ome Le then MB) = ba 4 wu gy “ Se Cpe eee ow e « Dore 16 then Plpj= to Lk i Tee = Ts Probability that ont of tke win the pace | P(AUBUCeUD) * PlA)+ Pla) Pc) PD) | \ i P Subba kh yk AS A,B. cp eis eta Cou Hie i = 319 Aisjoing i 420 Fee A cond ig drawn trom a 1 j a | Pack of sa condg, tind the { Probeubi Ley ee getting.a kang oF a hort or a fed cand, F So)? let Ue define thar follorotn, g events: A. The cond chacon ts a king Bs Tht cond drag ho heone Ct The cong Aron on & Ted cand Then | " pCA) = mtn) fey i “ay * Bg ss Pl@) = nla) 13¢, 13 mts) Be * ya C) = M(t) ho, P(e) cay 2 Bt 2¢Hote 9,B,C awe not mut drsfornt >. Tun ANB! The cand crm 18 a king of Remit m(ANG) = 1 ten P(ANB) = L : 52 7 BNC 7 The card chawr 16 heart of red card n(@nc) = B then Pfanc) = 13" > 2 CNA! The cand craton ig a king of -heaset. red MUCHA) <9 trem ELenn) =o, Su 7 ANBNC 2 The cand drawn ig a king of red hoahF J n(Anenc)=L then Plananc) = 2. 5 The requiked probability ef setting a fui bn hedt Cond th Jetting a King 8-7 heant PAVGUC) = PCA) +P(B)+P(C) — PIANG- PI Bac) -PleNA)t PCAN BNC) ae ee PAVE LE) = % [Muttiplication Las of Probabitity: Orwise * Condehanal Probability a . A : Ts fbi of te afi Ta Ancthey even! B has already a : ttenoal Prebobity and tp denotes by PlA/g)—s Probability of A wher O wh given R Perobabilety under cu iver cond? ws» called cenditioa, proba “dd i Hutt pleat, Law of Probability oY iPltcetton Theertem of Praberaili For two events A and B PLANB) = PLA) x Pa, P(ANGB) 2 A H)e #9 08) = pLox PCALa)] P(nea) = Plax Prob of A when B Ts given Whee pA) So » AB)>o Uther P(8In) JUPsULsen by re cu the tonditronap pxobaliti pete of 8 when the evens A hol chai PAIR) JB the condbo ett seal B hes atreadty happened, PSU af A uthen ok Tndependent Events 1- An event i4 said “to be Melepenclent fo anethey event Bt b (A/a) + PLA) EA when Bo siven sRBeL Amo news, (008) © PEA) x(Oh] P(008)"* PLODY Playa ie Hy Ap B ane independerd. , PLGA) = PIG) or. Pfaja) = P(O) 3. Ny Or pew oe Ay re T independent events , tyre [Plain An Ay an. Mf) > PLA) ¥ PAL) XA): x PCAn) Bet: A pad 6} dice & soled , fimd (A/S) if A: 2 operons ev atlrord ance clice Bi Sum of number eyppeong arr dite Lb 6, GI Ae flat), C2) 028), (24), (215) (216), & 2) (3,23, (4), (8,2) 1612)} B= Sus) Cs 2) (33) (24) (H2)4 Here S=f1,2,3,451 6} Xf 1,2,3, 45,6} f= 96 3 - nme + fer, (02)} P(e) > We) - S , Plane) = n(Ana) , 2 nls) BC nis) 3 New, (Ala) = PANG) p(B) By mucttiplicatie-~ theorem pray = prayx P( Aa)0 iet Sole EE Remy pullin, Aft of 9 aomate Or aw emoker id Ho want Wy Oo male amefter ig ee : ur) Qo mets tf a smoker 5 already Arserked big Find the Pacebocbitiby of Selecting Ya NEN - Smoker 5) & mage : - 9 A smoker ff a male (h first Selected. | @ Deine the following’ events | Al a wate us selected Bia ormieken wy potected! { Y 98 S = , 4 2 Ther given, Plava) =, Pane) 2-2 PB) 2 / YD The prrsbabitiy of sclecting ct men Smoker a 1 P(B)> 1-P(@ = 4- plans { PLANG)> Pla) y P(A/a) PCAla) 7 iy a 2/i-~ } | x 2 j- ale u 4 fe Also, pla) = 1- P(e) = 0 Gls 2 & b) The probabilidy of Selects, Be te Pra tbo edhe, mete P(AUG) = PLA) + PLB) — prAna) P(A) = P(AUB) + p(ANB) - Pie) e #42. 2 Ft4-$ 10 tic 3 1o = S 3 4 lo =o ee & Selecting a smoker fi a mak ss 4 fins aelecled ¢ P(6/p) = PANG) PCY) a0 2S. & Ta = A cestd ts crown Perv a voell shuffled deck Bs s2 cotdg and tnd aecond cand iz drawn , find the probabiliby chal the first card wba shade and thiw Setend cad usa club if the first cord us nef meplaced , . Sd? > - P( first cord ts spade) 2 BG Lk Or pPlA) SC, > a Alfer th. event of dv ceeoing a bade the deck bor 51 conde 13 Gf ubich one clubs re Mor (ea) = Se 13, SiCy L Novo by Mult ipiicotion theexem P(ANB) = P(A) xX P( BJA) Ly 2B ASL © 204 Ex: The Probability that a student selected at random from a class will POS In aw Mathematicg 18 41s and the probability thet he/the passer py Macthematita He Wend Ha rrobaledlitay. ound Com pater, BeCence ux L. tthak is the porobabiltly that he ote itt bas = or Aeiene, if it dis known that fab paseed wry em athunguck ? 8h . We peobabitity | that the problem jx not solved by any of them 16 + de hd L Ze a Hence the the probability 1 a the problem 6 solved by atleast one ooo ci.es Bor - eT, ° thoee ‘ A candidate {4 cabled el tn Pte ie ie een ‘erp Fu oon SE ont hind how, ort 10 oie ce of of bis gett ak Leos i pny selecting the candidate by. fives The spit x wy tHe coundliclage by Secend _ coon pang 1 The probeebi le eet the candiclacte Pal cae *, a Oe by Now the ity thet 4 Hae ~second 4 thd -Avide ML, AD rhs (ere sorts The obability that candidat. net selected = dL xi ehex le Hence the probable AEN ef the ene ay ¥ jetting ak Least ort (1 - (aM ho) ) © 0.2% 4 con bik a et 4 time in S alhef > 6 2 hint aan » © diice ty 3 Shots. Wet ” Te rea v Ao thy alley - Bk 2 Probability Shred ab Lyng peso shellgf Batali of is hitting sheet = 4 : Probabitit, of pls hitting tha target = oy, Prsbabilily of cic bkting the target = 2), For cet trast two Ut, wie may have “a) 1, B,C otlmay Cit, for rable Uw Probability > Ay Bye 2.24 3 bo ; by A,® Li He devegel amd ¢ misses it, for uitiet Lhe probebstity 24 e8n(1-2) > deans ce 60 OG Md he ek and B caves it wlrich th pty © . or 4 x(yy) 2 > debxe oo ( IS)XYa¥% > 243,90 at S oa Since they Gre ithe mat disjoint events , Lhin by the adeitten theerem ef! probetitity Required probatt Uity thak two shots of: Lear St Rye ye Ls6 og Ge ee. ee bo © bee * Bayers Theowern] * 4 g EL. 7 En One Ce Lee, ae entlin HAN sas Sete vortty ad (i=4, 2.3.0, pee Cf ae wubitrand went A of Le unple Ap of dhe eXpewmunrt cottt! p(a)>o Love,Ext Pin) = PCE PLANE re PCEt) P(Alec) cea i 3 d balls ang A bag xX containg 2 wleite and 3 7 toa 6 Visgrtans Avolibe and s veel a One belt dieeon at randen frem ont of the | 78 one "5 ou, to be red. Find the probability that ft wos dros, bag Mm Define the events Ey! The belt #3 drawn from bas x Eo. The bel! i craton from bag y 4A: Te bell ts 20d tur trove to fiixd P(Ea/A). By Gaye's theerern P(Es/a) = PE): PLA) & =e P( EL). PLA/Er) + PLE) - P(AIE,) Stree the two huge ou equally Lh ts be belected thin © pally Likely PE )= dio, P(Es) = ln: ® fist, P(o.red batt ib dress from bag Xt) Paley) + a. 2 __g - Pla ved ball i, drawn frm bag) P(Ale,) > Se 1 : (Ale,) ee @ Wing ©" ® @t@® tr eqn @ P(EJa) = bXSly ini B x6 UE => bud wey enethery Spare oo the a the bern person con hut OOS shun vin time: he aecond fp poder Hus Se toyethou. UUhat ais the prebax 0 Meds. 7 § ‘4 baitedy hot Bhe second pois wieots the doxget é Lek - me past horser, Beets the $a" heots the potobabltibyEx: = gl” a _| gr a bot factor: 7 Machine A; 8,8 WON Rect nus eottvely ASF BS] D 497 OL the total Of theis, iat s,4and2 fercent arc Ache ctire bolts 4 bate 1 Clreton af randem from the Produce and is found to be Clefecteve - IAtho® ig tr robabilite the Pt wag Manufactured by machine G7 (ek us define the events: Ei: Bott Selected ub Manufactured by machine 4 Fro: Bott selected ws Manuf actued Machine B E32 Bott BelecPed ss Manufactured by machine ¢ Ht Goll sn defective , 3 Given :- PCE.) = 3E = 0.45 , PlE,) = 35-035, Aes) = to co The bobili drawing a ArgectVe Boot monufa- ctuled by wediathes A ae a P(H/E, ) = = O10 . Srrtlasy 1 POn/r,) = a ~ 0:04. 1). Plo lee = 0-08, Nous by Bayete Theexem , ue have Pr P (En). PUM /e2) = 0:35 X ood OAS Koos FBS OOK Y oo XOOD = _0:+ 0/40 0: 034s = 10:4)| Ena The contents uy urn ¢, a aad SI" ore 0 folly Iuwdate , 2 black and ared toed. - auatite, 1 black and ted battle “hy : sped « baths A whit, , Sblack end & . M 7 J tree belo Gre reserve randenr ane drawn ia n pen te Be wolette and red - Uokat Toth fedlnsehl Prak they come from urns z Lek Ey: uw L f6 cheery fy um ®t is chesere Es: um we ts cheser LA: The too batts ove wihite and red uw Lave be find the probability 447° Calls conn fro, Urn p Sf Atey ore white and ved. Pea) = 2% Nao, P(E)> +, Ple)=4 pl Es) ces t 3 2 3) 3) & Plo wide and a wed ball ane drawn fron wn 2) PCAery = tare 1 IKB 2k acon, lS = (Ase. ) = 2 Ke, Lk Ay 3 ge . (08) = Hane 5 2 Co GL Now by Boyels theerern PlE/) = PUB) + PLE) PLE) P( A/E,) + PLEs): PLUK) + PIE) PP . s*t Bes deka dng t orp 118tHe Bay's. theeven . The probability Ant a. Fh ntl eee ek Ak So and ‘the Lut, Brod cursther pever Lan beh the us 2. But the! fost person ca ae 4 @ shal re ile the second £ powson fies o thets, | Are » Wat Us ie. ba. baitity sat af second porns Last. oh. pr BI Lk tongek Er: The frst porsen bhesk the fogele £2: The second pase shoot the teviges - Ax: Shooting the tooget Ule hove to find the potcoabitity that the Second Pesce shoots the : te P(E] A) Given Pile)=a , Pla) 2 © The vatio of the Shoots of the pigt powsen te these 6{ Hie becend pesen ws then PLE) Lg 2% ofpley) = £4) p( Ex) lo S Now by Baye these a) PlE)ea) = le) P(Ales P(E) PlAle,J4 OCE2): O (AI Es) 7 = v2 ple) Ceeiee ee “3 Ee P(E) 24 Spe) 2 "fe a 3s + Lye 6+5/t0 2 eal = oFve . oa vafed 2000 Scooter dy fn’ fsurance company, hese aeueky diver. ney, Hoos Can qn'yerth ane waent vowing, % Scog 20 babii ouv a f dviv U6! 0-04 Giver ad ret a Of eae op Bu IT go! 803 and os rane vely » ¢ i mi mets wot aw acc! dank dwiver? the. ; : Pssebabilite hat fir ub a Scooter Sette E, 1 puwor chousen Ix cc Scooter dnver Ea! power choosen fe a corr Buller €3° persor~ deere ws a truck &invev ond on power muck wiltth accident. Bats Since there ore j2000 forsere Te 2) £,)) = Qe0 . PLE) = Beco (6) *_Aooo _ . l2ec00 PlEsJ2 Gove. 4 j20c0 z Ole Ae 2 “Given fhat_, Probobility that a person meer withan aceldunt ‘ lan *t ‘ given theg Boa Scooten dy'ven iy, P(Ale,) 2 0-04 Fieri looky P(Ale)2 0-03, P(AJEs )eots ute Prove ts. find poison Clever ts a Lcactn ‘ cbuver thet “mecs! witty wr ccetctent. P( i/9) Now by the Boye's thetsom, PCE/ad= Pee PURE) PLA) PCA IAD + PCBs) P(AE,) + PCES) P(Ala) . Ye Fool exXoot 4 113X003 41, xoIs : of 2 4 t+eeGs ~ Sh