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Derivation of the Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curve for Annual Maxima

Rainfall using Generalised Extreme Value Distribution

Article in International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences · January 2019
DOI: 10.20546/ijcmas.2019.801.276

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 Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2019) 8(1): 2626-2632

International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences

ISSN: 2319-7706 Volume 8 Number 01 (2019)
Journal homepage: http://www.ijcmas.com

Original Research Article https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2019.801.276

Derivation of the Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curve for Annual Maxima

Rainfall using Generalised Extreme Value Distribution

M.R. Namitha1* and V. Vinothkumar2

1
Department of Agriculture Engineering, Sethu Institute of Technology,
Anna University, India
2
Department of Farm Machinery and Power, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, India

*Corresponding author

ABSTRACT

Keywords The analysis of one-day maximum rainfall for 27-years rainfall data in Kumulur
Generalised region was conducted using Gumbel distribution and Generalized Extreme Value
Extreme Value distributions. The parameters of the distributions were estimated using the method
distribution, Chi- of L- moments. Annual one-day maximum rainfall data for 27-years was analyzed
square test,
and the return levels for 2, 5, 10 and 25-years were calculated using the proposed
Empirical
Reduction Formula, probability distribution functions. The goodness of fit of the probability
Rainfall Intensity distribution was analysed by conducting Chi-square test. It was found that, the
Duration Frequency annual maxima rainfall data for one day maximum rainfall of Kumulur region fits
Curves best with the Generalized Extreme Value distribution. The short duration rainfall
Article Info depths for 1-hr, 2-hr, 3-hr, 5-hr, and 8-hr were calculated using the Empirical
Reduction Formula proposed by the Indian Meteorological Department. The
Accepted: intensity of the obtained rainfall depths was also calculated. The rainfall Intensity-
17 December 2018 Duration-Frequency (R-IDF) curves were plotted for the region and the
Available Online: corresponding empirical equations were derived.
10 January 2019

Introduction intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are

graphical representations of the amount of
Intensity, duration and frequency are water that falls within a given period of time
identified as the principle characteristics of a in catchment areas (Dupont et al. 2006).
rainfall, which influences the planning design, Rainfall intensity is expressed as the rate of
operation and maintenance of soil and water rainfall in millimetres per hour (Okonkwo and
conservation structures. The relationship Mbajiorgu, 2008). Duration represents the
between rainfall Intensity-Duration- total time period during which the storm
Frequency trio is an important tool for the occurs. Frequency is how often a storm of
proper implementation of different water specified intensity and duration may be
resources technology projects. Rainfall expected to occur (Rick, 2007).
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Unexpected extreme rainfall events result in rainfall for one day was calculated for the 27
flooding hazards worldwide. Various years (1991-2017) data (Table 1).
probability distributions can be used to
predict the design rainfall fairly accurately for The statistical parameters of annual 1-day
certain return periods, even though the nature maximum rainfall are shown in Table 2.
of rainfall is erratic and varies with time and Gumbel distribution and Generalized Extreme
space (Upadhaya and Singh, 1998). Value distribution were used for the analysis
According to Smith (1993), the rainfall of extreme rainfall events and the calculation
frequency analysis problem is to compute the of return periods.
amount of rainfall falling over a given area in
duration of x minutes with a given probability Fitting the distributions for the extreme
of occurrence in any given year. However, a rainfall analysis
safe and economic design of small dams,
bridges, culverts, irrigation and drainage work Generalized Extreme Value distribution
etc. can be well planned by the analysis of (GEV)
annual maxima rainfall.
The GEV distribution is a family of
Many researchers have pointed out the continuous probability distributions that
importance of analysis of rainfall intensity- combines the Gumbel (EV1), Fréchet and
duration-frequency curves for design of Weibull distributions. GEV makes use of 3
hydrologic structures. Design engineers and parameters: location, scale and shape.
hydrologists require one day maximum
rainfall at different return periods for The CDF of GEV is defined in (Hosking,
appropriate planning and design of small and 1997) as:
medium hydraulic structures like small dams,
bridges, culverts, etc. (Aggarwal et al., 1988).
(1)
This study figures out the variation in
intensity-duration-frequency relationship for where, ξ is the location parameter, α is the
one day maxima rainfall for the proposed scale parameter, and κ is the shape parameter.
return periods, using Generalized Extreme
Value distribution.
Gumbel distribution (EV1)
Materials and Methods Gumbel distribution, also referred as Extreme
Value Type-1 distribution is used for the
AEC & RI, Kumulur campus, having study of extreme hydrologic events (e.g.
10.55’29.34” N latitude and 78.49’35.61”E extreme rainfall, peak flow etc.) The EV1
longitude, located in Lalgudy taluk in Trichy distribution uses only 2 parameters, location
district of Tamilnadu is chosen as the study
(𝜉) and scale (𝛼).
area. The average annual rainfall of the area
was found to be 85.8 cm. The CDF for Gumbel distribution as defined
in (Hosking, 1997) is:
The daily rainfall data for past 27 years
(1991-2017) was collected from the
meteorological observatory in AEC & RI, ..… (2)
Kumulur campus. The annual maximum

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where, ξ is the location parameter, α is the

] ..(4)
scale parameter.

Parameter estimation for the distributions where, T is the return period, is the return
level at T years.
The parameter estimation of the probability
distribution was done by using the method of Gumbel distribution
L-moments by applying the equations
proposed by Cunnane (1989) (Table 3). The equation for fitting the Gumbel
distribution to observed series of flood flows
Return periods and return levels at different return periods T is (Sarma, 1999):

Return period (T) also known as a recurrence …..(5)

interval (sometimes repeat interval) is an
average length of time in years for an event where, denotes the magnitude of the T-
(e.g. flood or river level) of given magnitude
to be equalled or exceeded at least once year flood event, K is the frequency factor
(Table 4). The return period for an event can and σ are the mean and the standard deviation
be calculated by the following formula: of the maximum instantaneous flows
respectively.

…..(3) The frequency factor expresses as:

where, N is the total number of years of

record and R is the rank of observed rainfall …..(6)
values arranged in descending order. Return
levels represents the amount of rainfall The table 5 shows the observed and calculated
equalled or exceeded at the given return return levels using the proposed probability
period. In this study, the return levels of distribution functions.
rainfall are calculated for the assumed return
periods of 2, 5, 10 and 25 years. Goodness of fit

Calculation of return levels The goodness of fit between the observed and
the expected return levels were analysed
The return levels for the corresponding return using Chi-square test.
periods are calculated using Gumbel (EV1)
and Generalised Extreme Value distribution. …..(7)

Generalised extreme value distribution where, is the observed rainfall and is the
expected return level using probability
The return value is defined as a value that is distribution functions.
expected to be equalled or exceeded on
average once every interval of time (T) (with
Estimation of short duration rainfall
a probability of 1/T). Therefore, CDF of the
GEV distribution [i.e., equation (1)] = 1-1/T, The empirical reduction formula (eq. 16)
which implies: proposed by Indian Meteorological

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Department (IMD) was used for finding the for return period T, Pt is the required rainfall
short duration rainfall values at various depth in mm at t-hr duration and t is the
durations like 1-hr, 2-hr, 3-hr, 5-hr, 8-hr. duration in hours.

Results and Discussion

…..(8)
where, Pt is the required rainfall depth in mm The return levels of extreme rainfall for one
at t-hr duration, P24 is the daily rainfall in mm day were calculated using the cumulative
and t is the duration of rainfall for which the distribution functions of both Gumbel and
rainfall depth is required in hour. Generalised Extreme Value distributions. Chi-
square test was conducted for comparison of
The rainfall intensity for a particular short the results with observed data. The expected
duration rainfall can be calculated by the return levels using generalised extreme value
following formula distribution was found to have a good
agreement with the observed data, since a
minimum chi-square value is Generalised
…..(9) Extreme Value distribution than that of
where, It is the intensity of rainfall in mm h-1 Gumbel distribution.

Table.1 Annual maximum rainfall for one day

Sl. No. Year Annual maximum rainfall for one day
1 1991 151
2 1992 85.1
3 1993 106.2
4 1994 71.8
5 1995 100
6 1996 122.6
7 1997 69.7
8 1998 120
9 1999 205.8
10 2000 90.5
11 2001 84
12 2002 156.6
13 2003 57.6
14 2004 115.8
15 2005 115.2
16 2006 69.9
17 2007 158
18 2008 149
19 2009 176
20 2010 136.6
21 2011 78.5
22 2012 94.4
23 2013 80
24 2014 67
25 2015 61.4
26 2016 58.6
27 2017 110

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Table.2 Statistical parameters for annual one day maximum rainfall

Sl. No. Parameters Value

1. Minimum (mm) 57.6
2. Maximum (mm) 205.8
3. Mean (mm) 108.90
4. Standard deviation, σ (mm) 7.93
5. Coefficient of skewness 0.74
6. Kurtosis -0.18

Table.3 Parameters for the probability distribution functions

Sl. No. Parameters for the GEV Gumbel

Probability distribution
1 Scale, α 31.69 32.59
2 Location, ξ 89.66 90.09
3 Shape, k -0.0297 -

Table.4 Observed and Expected return levels for one day maximum rainfall

S. No. Return Observed rainfall for one Expected return level for one day
Period day maximum rainfall maximum rainfall
Gumbel GEV
1 2 100 107.59 101.3382
2 5 149 114.61 138.2678
3 10 158 119.25 163.4113
4 25 205.8 125.12 195.9922

Table.5 Rainfall IDF empirical relations using GEV

Sl. No. Return period Equation

1 2
2 5
3 10
4 25

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Fig.1 Rainfall IDF curves obtained using GEV distribution

The short duration rainfall depths were References

calculated for 1-hr, 2-hr, 3-hr, 5-hr and 8-hr
durations using the empirical formula Aggarwal MC, Katiyar VS, Ram Babu
proposed by the Indian Meteorological (1988). Probability analysis of annual
Department (IMD). The intensity of rainfall maximum daily rainfall of UP
was calculated by using eq. 9. The calculated Himalayan. Indian J Soil Cons 16(1):
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regression analysis derived a best correlation Geneva, Switzerland. Pp. 49-95.
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 Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2019) 8(1): 2626-2632

University of Nigeria, Nsukka. pp 95. Handbook of Hydrology, edited by

Rick, K. (2007). Statistics of Weather and David R. Maidment. New York:
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How to cite this article:

Namitha, M.R. and Vinothkumar, V. 2019. Derivation of the Intensity-Duration-Frequency

Curve for Annual Maxima Rainfall using Generalised Extreme Value Distribution.
Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci. 8(01): 2626-2632. doi: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2019.801.276

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