A Simple Approach to Weather Predictions by using Naive

Bayes Classifiers
Agnieszka Lutecka1 , Zuzanna Radosz1
1
Silesian University Of Technology, Faculty of Applied Mathematics, Kaszubska 23, 44-100 Gliwice, Poland

Abstract
This article presents and explains how we have used Naive Bayes Classifier and date base to predict the weather. We compare
the dependence of accuracy on the probability of different distributions for various types of data.

Keywords
Naive Bayes Classifier, probability distribution, Python

1. Introduction • 𝑃 (𝐵|𝐴) is the probability that we would observe

such data if the hypothesis were true
Many IT systems use the widely understood artificial • 𝑃 (𝐴) is the a priori probability that the hypothe-
intelligence [1, 2]. Artificial intelligence methods also sis is true
apply to the data processing [3, 4, 5]. The wide appli- • 𝑃 (𝐵) is the probability of the observed data
cation of artificial intelligence also applies to systems
installed in cars, which are used, for example, to detect Importantly, the naive Bayes classifier assumes that
the quality of the surface [6]. Many technical problems the influence of the attributes is independent of each
lead to the optimization tasks [7, 8, 9], where the com- other, therefore 𝑃 (𝐵|𝐴) can be written as
plexity of the [10, 11, 12] functional is a big challenge. 𝑃 (𝐵1 |𝐴) * 𝑃 (𝐵2 |𝐴) * ... * 𝑃 (𝐵𝑛 |𝐴). (2)
Optimization processes concern many different areas of The naivety of this classifier follows from the above as-
life require constant search for new, more effective op- sumption.
timization methods [13, 14] based on the observation
of nature [15, 16, 17]. A very important and important
branch of artificial intelligence are the applications of 3. Description of how the
broadly understood [18] neural networks. Interesting
applications concern health protection [19], adult care
program works
[20, 21]. Artificial intelligence methods are also used We started the project with an analysis of data from the
for weather forecasting [22, 23, 24], as well as for the database. Initially, we shuffled and normalized the data
detection of features [25, 26, 27]. to the 0 − 1 range to operate on smaller numbers, thus
increasing the performance of our program. After di-
2. Program description viding into validation and training sets, we move on to
the main part of our program, i.e. the use of the naive
The task of our program is to predict the weather using Bayesian classifier. Its task is to return the name of the
the naive Bayes classifier. It is especially suitable for most probable weather for a given sample.
problems with a lot of input data, so it is perfect for our This algorithm uses a probability distribution defined by
project. It uses a conditional probability formula that a density function that describes how the probability of
looks like this: a random variable (x) is distributed. We implemented 5
different probability distributions to compare the algo-
𝑃 (𝐵|𝐴) * 𝑃 (𝐴) rithm’s efficiency for different probability density formu-
𝑃 (𝐴|𝐵) = (1)
𝑃 (𝐵) las. We use the following distributions: Gauss, Laplace,
log-normal, uniform, triangular.
• 𝐴 is our hypothesis
• 𝐵 is the observed data (attribute values)
3.1. Gaussian distribution
SYSYEM 2022: 8th Scholar’s Yearly Symposium of Technology, Engi- It is one of the most important probability distributions,
neering and Mathematics, Brunek, July 23, 2022 playing an important role in statistics. The formula for
" [email protected] (A. Lutecka); [email protected] the probability density is as follows:
(Z. Radosz)
© 2022 Copyright for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative Commons License
1 −(𝑥 − 𝜇)2
CEUR
Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
CEUR Workshop Proceedings (CEUR-WS.org) √ exp( ) (3)
2𝜎 2
http://ceur-ws.org
Workshop

𝜎 2𝜋
ISSN 1613-0073
Proceedings

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Agnieszka Lutecka et al. CEUR Workshop Proceedings 64–75

The probability function plot of this distribution is a bell- Where 𝜇 is the mean value and 𝜎 is the standard devi-
shaped curve (the so-called bell curve). ation.
The density function graph is as follows:

Figure 1: Graph of the probability density function

Source: Wikipedia.org

Figure 3: Graph of the probability density function

Where 𝜇 is the expected or mean value and 𝜎 stan- Source: Wikipedia.org
dard deviation. The red line corresponds to the standard
normal distribution.

3.2. Laplace Distribution 3.4. Triangular Distribution

It’s a continuous probability distribution named after It is a continuous probability distribution of a random
Pierre Laplace. The probability density is given by the variable. The probability density of a triangular distribu-
formula: tion can also be expressed as:
1 −|𝑥 − 𝜇|
exp( ) (4) √
0 dla 𝑥 < 𝜇 − 6𝜎
⎧
2𝑏 𝑏 ⎪
⎪ √
Where 𝜇 is the expected value, i.e. the mean, and b> 0 is + √16𝜎 dla 𝜇 − 6𝜎 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 𝜇
⎪ 𝑥−𝜇
⎨
6𝜎 2 √
the scale parameter. The function graph looks like this: 𝑓 (𝑥) =
⎪− 𝑥−𝜇 2 +
√1 dla 𝜇 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 𝜇 + 6𝜎
⎩ 6𝜎 6𝜎 √
⎪
⎪
0 dla 𝑥 > 𝜇 + 6𝜎
(6)
Where 𝜇 is the mean value and 𝜎 is the standard devi-
ation.
The function graph looks like this:

Figure 2: Graph of the probability density function

Source: Wikipedia.org

3.3. Log Normal Distribution Figure 4: Graph of the probability density function
Source: Wikipedia.org
It is the continuous probability distribution of a positive
random variable whose logarithm is normally distributed.
Pattern:
1 −(𝑙𝑛𝑥 − 𝜇)2 3.5. Uniform distribution
√ exp( ) * 1(0, ∞) (5)
2𝜋𝜎𝑥 2𝜎 2 It is a continuous probability distribution for which the
probability density in the range from a to b is constant

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and not equal to zero, and otherwise equal to zero. We column j, sr [j] - the mean value of the column j and
can see it in the formula below std [j] - standard deviation of the values from column j.
√ These methods process the input data through the formu-
⎨0 dla 𝑥 < 𝜇 −√ 3𝜎
⎧
⎪
√ las for the probability distribution and return the value
𝑓 (𝑥) = 2√13𝜎 dla 𝜇 − 3𝜎 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 𝜇 + 3𝜎 (7)of the probability density function at the point sample
√
0 dla 𝑥 > 𝜇 + 3𝜎 [j], that is, the probability of sample [j] occurring under
⎪
⎩
the conditions sr [j] and st [j]. Finally, the algorithm
Where 𝜇 is the mean value and 𝜎 is the standard devia- returns the name of the weather most likely to occur at
tion. the sample input.
The function graph is as follows: Each probability distribution has a differently defined
density function. Therefore, the distributions may differ
in the results. Below we present the pseudocode of Naive-
Classifier class methods with an emphasis on processing
the input data by probability distributions.

Data: Input 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎, 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒, 𝑛𝑎𝑚𝑒

Result: Weather Name
Extract weather records ;
Enter the weather record sets into the list 𝑛𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑠;
𝑖 := 0;
for 𝑖 < 𝑙𝑒𝑛(𝑛𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑠) do
Figure 5: Graph of the probability density function 𝑡𝑟 = [];
Source: Wikipedia.org 𝑗 := 1;
for 𝑗 < 7 do
Calculate the mean value of the column j ;
Calculate the column standard deviation j
3.6. Select Distributions ;
if 𝑛𝑎𝑚𝑒 == 𝑙𝑎𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑒′ 𝑎 then
As we can see, the formulas differ significantly, which tr.append(NaiveClassifier.laplace
will definitely have a big impact on the effectiveness (sample[j],sr[j-1]));
of the program. We tried to choose such formulas for end
the probability density so that the values were not very if 𝑛𝑎𝑚𝑒 == 𝑙𝑜𝑔 − 𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑛𝑦 then
divergent, as we will present in the next paragraphs. tr.append(NaiveClassifier.logarytmiczny
(sample[j],std[j-1],sr[j-1]));
4. Algorithm end
if 𝑛𝑎𝑚𝑒 == 𝑗𝑒𝑑𝑛𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑗𝑛𝑦 then
The naive Bayes classifier uses probability density func- tr.append(NaiveClassifier.jednostajny
tions to compute the probability of a given start con- (sample[j],std[j-1],sr[j-1]));
dition. The NaiveClassifier class has 6 static methods: end
„laplace”, „logarytmiczny”, „jednastajny”, „trojkatny”, if 𝑛𝑎𝑚𝑒 == 𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑘𝑎𝑡𝑛𝑦 then
„gauss”, „bayes”, where the first 5 are different proba- tr.append(NaiveClassifier.trojkatny
bility distributions . We use as many as 5 to compare (sample[j],std[j-1],sr[j-1]));
the algorithm’s effectiveness for different formulas on end
the probability density. The "bayes" method accepts the if 𝑛𝑎𝑚𝑒 == 𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑠𝑠 then
following input data: data – training set, sample – a set of tr.append(NaiveClassifier.gauss
values in the range 0-1 that represent successive database (sample[j],std[j-1],sr[j-1]));
columns, name – the name of the probability distribution end
(Gauss, Laplace, log-normal, uniform, triangular). At the end
beginning, the algorithm extracts the records with the Return the probability of the given weather;
given weather. Then, using the loops, the program goes end
through all the records of the training set, calculating Return the name of the most likely weather;
the mean values and standard deviation of each column Algorithm 1: Bayes algorithm
for each type of weather. Using the given "name", the
algorithm calls the appropriate method, where the input
data is: sample [j] - where j is the sample value for the

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Data: Input 𝑥, 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 Data: Input 𝑥, 𝑠𝑡𝑑,𝑠𝑟

Result: The value of the density function at x Result: The value of the density function at x
𝑏 := 2; return (1/(dev*np.sqrt(2*np.pi)))*np.exp(-((x-
return mean)**2)/(2*dev**2));
((1/(2*b))*(math.exp(-(math.fabs(x-mean)/b))));
Algorithm 2: Laplace’s algorithm Algorithm 6: Gauss algorithm

Data: Input 𝑥, 𝑠𝑡𝑑,𝑠𝑟

Result: The value of the density function at x 5. Databases
if 𝑥 > 0 then
return (1/((math.pi*2)**(1/2)*std*x))*math.exp(- 5.1. Database Analysis
((math.log(x)-sr)**2)/(2*std**2));
For our project, we use the Istanbul Weather Data
database, downloaded from the kaggle website. The
end database has 3896 records. It contains the following
else data columns: DateTime, Condition, Rain, MaxTemp,
return 0; MinTemp, SunRise, SunSet, MoonRise, MoonSet, Avg-
end Wind, AvgHumidity, AvgPressure.
Algorithm 3: Logarithmic algorithm

Data: Input 𝑥, 𝑠𝑡𝑑,𝑠𝑟

Result: The value of the density function at x
if 𝑥 < 𝑠𝑟 − 3 * *(1/2) * 𝑠𝑡𝑑 then
return 0;
end
if 𝑥 >= 𝑠𝑟 − 3 * *(1/2) * 𝑠𝑡𝑑 && 𝑥 <=
𝑠𝑟 + 3 * *(1/2) * 𝑠𝑡𝑑 then
return 1/(2*(3**(1/2))*std);
end
if 𝑥 > 𝑠𝑟 + 3 * *(1/2) * 𝑠𝑡𝑑 then
return 0;
end
else
return 0; Figure 6: Data types in each column
end
Algorithm 4: Uniform algorithm
We analyzed the data using a matrix graph that shows
the relationships between weather variables.
Data: Input 𝑥, 𝑠𝑡𝑑,𝑠𝑟
The chart is dominated by warm colors, which means
Result: The value of the density function at x
that most of the records in our database are sunny and
if 𝑥 < 𝑠𝑟 − 6 * *(1/2) * 𝑠𝑡𝑑 then
slightly cloudy.
return 0;
It can be seen that the data is presented in compact
end
groups. This means that the parameters for different
if 𝑥 >= 𝑠𝑟 − 6 * *(1/2) && 𝑥 <= 𝑠𝑟 then
weather conditions do not differ much from the others.
return (x-sr)/(6*std**2)+1/(6**(1/2)*std);
This can make our algorithm that determines the weather
end
based on these parameters not very accurate. There
if 𝑥 > 𝑠𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑥 <= 𝑠𝑡𝑑 + 6 * *(1/2) * 𝑠𝑡𝑑 then
may be situations where the algorithm will calculate the
return -(x-sr)/(6*std**2) + 1/(6**(1/2)*std);
weather "Sunny" because it was the most probable, but
end
the actual weather will be different. In the Experiments
if 𝑥 > 𝑠𝑟 + 6 * *(1/2) * 𝑠𝑡𝑑 then
section, we will test and analyze the obtained results of
return 0;
the algorithm’s accuracy.
end
else
return 0; We also analyzed the data using a violin graph for all
end weather conditions and maximum temperature as we can
Algorithm 5: The triangle algorithm see below:

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Figure 7: Matrix graph

In the attached photo we can see how the temperature To normalize the data to the range 0-1, we changed int64
value changes for a given weather, for example for "Mod- to float64.
erate rain", i.e. moderate rain, the maximum temperature
ranges from 5 to 20 degrees.
6. Implementation
5.2. Database modification 6.1. ProcessingData class
DateTime, SunRise, SunSet, MoonRise, MoonSet will not Our project consists of two files: a file containing the
be used in our project, so we can get rid of them. program code - "Pogoda.ipnb" and the database - "Istan-
d a t a . drop ( ’ DateTime ’ , a x i s =1 , bul Weather Data.csv". After analyzing the data from
i n p l a c e = True ) the database, we went to the "ProcessingData" class, in
d a t a . drop ( ’ S u n R i s e ’ , a x i s =1 , which we created 3 static methods: shuffle, splitSet and
i n p l a c e = True ) normalize.
d a t a . drop ( ’ SunSet ’ , a x i s =1 ,
i n p l a c e = True )
d a t a . drop ( ’ MoonRise ’ , a x i s =1 ,
6.2. Shuffle method
i n p l a c e = True )
d a t a . drop ( ’ MoonSet ’ , a x i s =1 , It takes base as input, i.e. our database. We use for loop
i n p l a c e = True ) to go through it selecting records and swapping them.

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Figure 8: Violin graph

Data: Input 𝑏𝑎𝑠𝑒 Data: Input 𝑥, 𝑘

Result: Database with jumbled records Result: Training and validation set
for 𝑖 in range(len(base)-1,-1,-1): do 𝑛 = 𝑖𝑛𝑡(𝑙𝑒𝑛(𝑥) * 𝑘)
take two records from the database, the 𝑥𝑇 𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛 = 𝑥[: 𝑛]
second with a random index and swap them 𝑥𝑉 𝑎𝑙 = 𝑥[𝑛 :]
end return xTrain, xVal;
return base; Algorithm 8: SplitSet algorithm
Algorithm 7: The shuffle algorithm

def s p l i t S e t ( x , k ) :
Program code n= i n t ( l e n ( x ) ∗ k )
x T r a i n =x [ : n ]
@staticmethod
x V a l =x [ n : ]
def s h u f f l e ( base ) :
r e t u r n xTrain , xVal
f o r i in range ( len ( base )
−1 , −1 , −1) :
base . i l o c [ i ] , base . i l o c [ rd
6.4. Normalize method
. r a n d i n t ( 0 , i ) ]= b a s e .
i l o c [ rd . r a n d i n t ( 0 , i ) ] , Takes x, which is a database that will have records scram-
base . i l o c [ i ] bled using the shuffle method. At the beginning, we enter
return base all data from the database into the variable values, except
for the string value, and the values of the column names
into the variable columnNames. We loop through all the
6.3. Splitset method columns in the column, and then take all the rows in
the column column and store them in the variable data.
It takes as input x - database and k - division of the set. In
Variables max1 and min1 are assigned maximum and
the variable n we write the length of the set x multiplied
minimum values from date. Using the next loop, we go
by k to know how to divide this set. Then, to two xTrain
through all the rows and assign to the variable val the
variables, we write the data from the database to the
formula for normalization min-max, that is, we subtract
value n, creating the training set, and to the variable xVal
the coordinate database record [row, column] from the
- all data following the value n, creating the validation
value min1, and then divide this difference by the differ-
set. Finally, we return both of these sets.
ence between max1 and min1. Finally, we write the value
after normalization to the database. The method returns
us a normalized database.
Program code

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Data: Input 𝑥 described in general in the "Algorithm" section, so now

Result: Standardized database we will look at the details. First, the method extracts the
𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑠 = 𝑥.𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑑 𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒𝑠(𝑒𝑥𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑑𝑒 =, , 𝑜𝑏𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡′′ ) database records with the given weather name into sepa-
𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛𝑁 𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑠 = 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑠.𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛𝑠.𝑡𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑠𝑡() rate lists. Then each of the lists created above is put into
for 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛𝑁 𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑠): do the "names" list. Additionally, we create a stringnames
take all the rows from the column column list with string weather names and a values list that will
𝑚𝑎𝑥1 = 𝑚𝑎𝑥(𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎) 𝑚𝑖𝑛1 = 𝑚𝑖𝑛(𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎) store the calculated probabilities for each weather.
for row in range(0,len(x) do
we go through all the lines
𝑣𝑎𝑙 = (𝑥.𝑎𝑡[𝑟𝑜𝑤, 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛] −
𝑚𝑖𝑛1)/(𝑚𝑎𝑥1 − 𝑚𝑖𝑛1)
𝑥.𝑎𝑡[𝑟𝑜𝑤, 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛] = 𝑣𝑎𝑙
end
end
return x;
Algorithm 9: The normalize algorithm

Program code
def normalize ( x ) :

v a l u e s =x . s e l e c t _ d t y p e s (
exclude =" o b j e c t " ) # s e l e c t
a l l d a t a from t h e d a t a b a s e
except the object , i . e .
string
columnNames= v a l u e s . columns .
tolist ()

f o r column i n columnNames :
d a t a =x . l o c [ : , column ] #
summon a l l rows i n
column column

max1=max ( d a t a )
min1=min ( d a t a )

f o r row i n r a n g e ( 0 , l e n ( x )
) : #we go t h r o u g h a l l
the l i n e s
v a l = ( x . a t [ row , column
] − min1 ) / ( max1−min1
)
x . a t [ row , column ]= v a l
return x

6.5. NaiveClassifier class and bayes

method
The NaiveClassifier class has 6 static methods: "laplace",
"logarithmic", "uniform", "triangle", "gauss", "bayes". The
first 5 are methods describing the functions of different
probability distributions. The "bayes" method has been

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Data: Input 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎, 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒, 𝑛𝑎𝑚𝑒

Result: Weather name
Extract weather records ;
Enter weather record sets into 𝑛𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑠 ;
Enter weather names in the list 𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑛 𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑠 ;
𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑠 := [] 𝑖 := 0;
for 𝑖 < 𝑙𝑒𝑛(𝑛𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑠) do
𝑡𝑟 = [];
𝑠𝑟 = [];
𝑠𝑡𝑑 = [];
𝑗 := 1;
for 𝑗 < 7 do
Calculate the mean value of the column j ;
Calculate the column standard deviation j
;
if 𝑠𝑟[𝑗 − 1] == 0 then
sr[j-1]=0.0000001;
end
if 𝑠𝑡𝑑[𝑗 − 1] == 0 then
std[j-1]=0.0000001;
end
if 𝑛𝑎𝑚𝑒 == 𝑙𝑎𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑒′ 𝑎 then
tr.append(NaiveClassifier.laplace
(sample[j],sr[j-1]));
end
if 𝑛𝑎𝑚𝑒 == 𝑙𝑜𝑔 − 𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑛𝑦 then
tr.append(NaiveClassifier.logarytmiczny
(sample[j],std[j-1],sr[j-1]));
end
if 𝑛𝑎𝑚𝑒 == 𝑗𝑒𝑑𝑛𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑗𝑛𝑦 then
tr.append(NaiveClassifier.jednostajny
(sample[j],std[j-1],sr[j-1]));
end
if 𝑛𝑎𝑚𝑒 == 𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑘𝑎𝑡𝑛𝑦 then
tr.append(NaiveClassifier.trojkatny
(sample[j],std[j-1],sr[j-1]));
end
if 𝑛𝑎𝑚𝑒 == 𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑠𝑠 then
tr.append(NaiveClassifier.gauss
(sample[j],std[j-1],sr[j-1]));
end
end
values.append
(np.prod(tr)*len(names[i])/len(names));
end
𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥 = 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑠.𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥(𝑚𝑎𝑥(𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑠));
return value from 𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑛𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑠 at index 𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑋 ;
Algorithm 10: Bayes algorithm

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The next step is to loop through all the values of the @staticmethod
names list in sequence. Then we create auxiliary lists: tr d e f a n a l i z e ( T r a i n , Val , name ) :
[] - to store 6 probability values that correspond to the c o r r e c t =0
next database column, sr [] - to store the mean values f o r i in range ( len ( Val ) ) :
from each column, std - to store the standard deviations if NaiveClassifier .
for each column. We pass the next loop through all the c l a s s i f y ( Train , Val .
columns one by one. Then we calculate the mean and i l o c [ i ] , name ) == V a l .
standard deviation for a given column. The next step is i l o c [ i ] . Condition :
the conditions that prevent sr [] and std [] from occurring. c o r r e c t +=1
The time has come for timetables. Depending on the in- accuracy = c o r r e c t / len ( Val ) ∗100
put data "name" to the list tr [] we add the result of the return accuracy
function of the given distribution. After going through
the inner loop, we compute the value from Bayes’ theo-
rem. Based on the formula for conditional probability, we 7. Tests
multiply the values in the tr list, then multiply that prod-
uct by the list of names [i]. We divide the whole thing by We started our tests by checking the algorithm’s opera-
the length of the "names" list. We add the obtained result tion using various samples.
to the "values" list. After going through both loops, we
determine the index from the values list with the highest
value. Finally, we return the name of the weather with
the given index from the stringnames list.

6.6. AnalizingData class

Another class in our project is AnalizingData with the
Figure 9: Sample tests
Analyze method. This method measures the accuracy
as a percentage of the Bayes classifier. The input data
is: Train - training set, Val - validation set and name The above code shows us that depending on the value in
- name of the probability distribution. The algorithm the sample, the algorithm returns different values, which
first sets the value of the corrtect variable to 0. Then it proves the correct operation of the algorithm.
goes through the iterator loop and goes through all the
records of the Val set. If the value returned by the bayes The next step was to determine the accuracy of our al-
classifier at the input: Train, Val [i], name is the same gorithm for various probability distributions. For this we
as the weather name for the Val [i] record, increase the used the AnalizingData class with the analysis method.
variable correct by 1. Finally, the algorithm returns the We called the method for each of the 5 types of probabil-
accuracy, which we calculate by dividing correct by the ity distributions for the training and validation division
product the length of the validation set and 100. in the ratio of 7: 3, and then, using the plt package, we
displayed the graph.
Data: Input 𝑇 𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛, 𝑉 𝑎𝑙, 𝑛𝑎𝑚𝑒
Result: Accuracy of the bayes algorithm
𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡 := 0
𝑖 := 0 for 𝑖 < 𝑙𝑒𝑛(𝑉 𝑎𝑙)): do
if
𝑁 𝑎𝑖𝑣𝑒𝐶𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑓 𝑖𝑒𝑟.𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑓 𝑦(𝑇 𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛, 𝑉 𝑎𝑙.𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑐[𝑖], 𝑛𝑎𝑚𝑒) ==
𝑉 𝑎𝑙.𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑐[𝑖].𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 then
correct+=1;
end
end
accuracy=correct/len(Val)*100;
return x;
Algorithm 11: Analyze algorithm Figure 10: The graph of the accuracy of the algorithm de-
pending on the probability distribution

Program code
As you can see in the attached picture, the algorithm
c l a s s AnalizingData :

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Agnieszka Lutecka et al. CEUR Workshop Proceedings 64–75

has different accuracies depending on the probability dis-

tribution. The Gaussian distribution definitely exceeds
other distributions with its accuracy, which is over 60%.
This means that more than 60% of the weather names
returned were valid. However, the Laplace and uniform
distributions do not lag far behind. Their values are in the
range 50-60%. Log normal and triangular distributions
are the least efficient because their accuracy is less than
20%. Additionally, we measured the execution time of
the algorithm. It was almost 4.512 minutes.
Figure 12: Bar chart 1. for the training set 0.1
8. Experiments
8.1. Analysis of algorithm results for
normalized and non-normalized data
We tested the operation of our program for both nor-
malized and non-normalized values and we determined
the algorithm execution time for both data sets. The
graphs below show the dependence of the accuracy on
the probability of individual distributions.

Figure 13: Bar chart 2. for the training set 0.3

Figure 11: Bar chart for unnormalized data

The first plot shows the Bayesian operation for unnor-

malized data in a ratio of 7: 3, while the second plot shows Figure 14: Bar chart 3. for the training set 0.5
the operation for unnormalized data with the same par-
tition. The program launch time for the first graph was
4.512 minutes, while for the second graph it was 4.433
minutes. As we can see, the only significant difference
was when using the Laplace distribution, the accuracy of
which decreased by almost 10%. The remaining results
are similar for both types of data. The time difference is
insignificant as it is only 5.023s.

8.2. Analysis of the algorithm’s results

for different data divisions
The following charts show the efficiency of the algorithm
Figure 15: Bar chart 4. for the training set 0.9
for normalized data for various divisions into training
and validation sets:
The algorithm execution time decreases with the re-
duction of the training set. For the last execution of the algorithm, where the division was in the ratio of 9: 1, the

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Agnieszka Lutecka et al. CEUR Workshop Proceedings 64–75

time was only 1.467 minutes. However, the first calcula- [5] R. Avanzato, F. Beritelli, M. Russo, S. Russo, M. Vac-
tions, where the division was in the ratio of 1: 9, took as caro, Yolov3-based mask and face recognition al-
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training set, we increase the number of records in the CEUR Workshop Proceedings, volume 2768, CEUR-
validation set. As a result, the algorithm will be called WS, 2020, pp. 41–45.
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