Chapter 1: Sampling

Lassad El Moubarki.
Tunis Business School

October 6, 2023

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Outline I
1 The questionnaire
Definition
Responses quantification
2 Generalities about Sampling
Sampling vs census
Why sample?
3 Probability sampling techniques
Simple random sampling (SRS)
Systematic sampling
Sampling with probability proportional to the units size
Stratified random sampling
Cluster sampling
Multistage sampling
4 Non-probability methods
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Outline II
Judgmental sampling
Quota method
Route sampling

5 Sample adjustment
Adjustment according to a quantitative variable
Adjustment by weight
Other method

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 The questionnaire Definition

The questionnaire

A questionnaire is a research instrument consisting of a series of questions for the purpose of

gathering information from respondents.
Advantages
They are cheap, do not require as much effort as for verbal surveys.
Have standardized answers that make it simple to analyse.
Disadvantages
Standardized answers may frustrate users. Questionnaires are also sharply limited by the
fact that respondents must be able to read the questions and respond to them. Thus, for
some demographic groups conducting a survey by questionnaire may not be concrete.

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 The questionnaire Responses quantification

Types of responses

One of the more difficult skills in data analysis is deciding which statistical models and tests to
use in a particular situation. The statistical model is often dependent on the type of the
variable. Statistical variables can be classified as follow.
Categorical (Qualitative)
Categorical nominal.
Example: Are you married?
Categorical ordinal.
Example: What is the mention of your baccalaureate?
Quantitative (Numerical)
Continuous: Responses are numbers that can be broken into finer and finer units. The set of
possible numbers is large.
Example: What is your height?
Discrete: The set of possible numbers is finite.
Example: How many child do you have?

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 The questionnaire Responses quantification

Rensis Likert Scale

A Likert scale is a psychometric scale commonly involved in research that employs

questionnaires. It is widely used in marketing area.
When responding to a Likert item, respondents specify their level of agreement or
disagreement on a symmetric agree-disagree scale for a series of statements. Thus, the
range captures the intensity of their feelings for a given item.
A scale can be created as the simple sum or average of questionnaire responses over the
set of individuals items (questions).
In so doing, Likert scaling assumes distances between each choice (answer option) are
equal.
To give possibility for neutral answer, the number of choices must be odd.

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 The questionnaire Responses quantification

Example: Website user survey (source Wikipedia)

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 Generalities about Sampling Sampling vs census

Sampling vs census

Census and sampling are two different techniques used for collecting survey data about a
reference population.
In the case of census all the population members are enumerated.
On the other hand, the sampling is widely used method, in statistical models, wherein a
data set is selected randomly from the reference population.
Census implies complete enumeration of the study objects, whereas Sampling is the
enumeration of the subgroup of elements chosen for participation.

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 Generalities about Sampling Sampling vs census

Sampling vs census

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 Generalities about Sampling Why sample?

Why sample?

We need to sample when the census is unachievable or difficult to perform. Often, the census
is:
Expensive.
Time consuming.
Technically difficult to perform.

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 Generalities about Sampling Why sample?

Importance of sample size

Simulation of the big numbers law in R: flipping a fair coin n times.

a=c()
b=c()
n=2000
for(i in 1:n)
{
a=c(a,sample(c(0,1),1))
b=c(b,mean(a))
plot(1:i,b,main=i,col=2,type="l",xlim=c(1,n),ylim=c(0,1))
}

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 Generalities about Sampling Why sample?

convergence en fonction de n
0.5
0.4
les estimations de p

0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0

0 500 1000 1500 2000

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 Generalities about Sampling Why sample?

Probability vs non-probability sampling

Probability sampling is a sampling methods, wherein, all the subjects of the population
get an opportunity to be in the sample.
Non-probability sampling is a method of sampling wherein, it is not known if a given
individual will be in the sample or not.
In practice, we use the non-probability sampling methods when we do not have the list of all
contacts or identifiers of population subjects (The frame).

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 Probability sampling techniques Simple random sampling (SRS)

Simple random sampling

The simple random sampling is a completely random method of selecting the sample subjects.
Wherein, all the subjects of the reference population are equally likely. In practice, we assign
numbers to the population subjects and then randomly choosing from those numbers through
an automated process.

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 Probability sampling techniques Simple random sampling (SRS)

Notations

Let:
X : variable of interest
N: population size
n: sample size
f : sampling rate
X n : the mean of the SRS sample
Sn : standard error of X gotten from the SRS sample
µ: the expected value of X
Remark: When the variable of interest is binary of type yes or no (0 or 1) the problem will be
an estimation of a proportion p̂. In such case Sn2 = p̂(1 − p̂).

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 Probability sampling techniques Simple random sampling (SRS)

Confidence interval of an SRS sample

Confidence interval of level 1 − α of the SRS sample mean:

√
IC1−α (µ) = [X n ± Z1−α/2 Sn √1−f
n
] without replacement
Sn
IC1−α (µ) = [X n ± Z1−α/2 n ]
√ with replacement
IC1−α (µ) = [X n ± ]

: prediction accuracy

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 Probability sampling techniques Simple random sampling (SRS)

Advantages and disadvantages

Advantages
To generate an SRS sample we just need the list of identifiers ( or contacts) of the
population subjects.
Easy to apply.

Disadvantages
Problem of accuracy with small sample size.
Expensive in terms of money and time.

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 Probability sampling techniques Simple random sampling (SRS)

Exercise 1

We wish to asses the monthly expenses of students at a university of 3,000 students. It is

therefore decided to construct a sample of 200 students using the simple random sampling
method. A computer randomly chooses 200 student names from a list of 3,000 names. These
people will form the sample that represents the population. If Sn = 70 dinars and Xn = 110
dinars, find out the 95% (α = 5%) confidence interval of the mean.
(knowing that Z0.975 = 1.96)

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 Probability sampling techniques Simple random sampling (SRS)

Solution for exercise 1

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( in class )
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 Probability sampling techniques Simple random sampling (SRS)

Exercise 2

Let’s consider a poll of Tunisian opinion about a certain political party. In a sample of 5,000
people randomly selected from all over Tunisia. 39% gave a favorable opinion. Calculate the
accuracy of this result and its confidence interval of level 95%.

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 Probability sampling techniques Simple random sampling (SRS)

Solution for exercise 2

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( in class )
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 Probability sampling techniques Simple random sampling (SRS)

SRS in R

Example: sample 100 individuals from a list of 3000 individuals.

l=1:3000 # Creation of the list

sample(x=l,size=100,replace=FALSE) # sample without replacement
sample(x=l,size=100,replace=TRUE) # sample with replacement

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 Probability sampling techniques Simple random sampling (SRS)

Optimal sample size (1)

Let:  the wished accuracy for a confidence level of 1 − α. The optimal sample size to reach
such accuracy is:
For the mean
N
n∗ = N2
1+ 2
z1−α/2 Sn2

For a proportion :
N
n∗ = N2
1+ 2
z1−α/2 pn (1−pn )

Remark: In both cases we assume that the sampling is without replacement. However, when
the sampling rate is very small (< 1%) the two ways of sampling converge to the same result.

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 Probability sampling techniques Simple random sampling (SRS)

Optimal sample size (2)

When the reference population size is very large. The optimal sample size will be:
For the mean
2
Z1−α/2 Sn2
n∗ =
2
For the proportion :
2
Z1−α/2 pn (1 − pn )
n∗ =
2
Remark: If their is no information about a previous value of pn , we consider the extreme case:
pn (1 − pn ) = 14 .

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 Probability sampling techniques Simple random sampling (SRS)

Exercise 3

In the following it is assumed that the level of confidence is 95%.

1 We seek to estimate the proportion of Tunisians having a higher education level with a
precision not exceeding 1.5%. What is the required sample size?
2 We seek to estimate the average transport expenditure for Tunisians with a precision not
exceeding 0.1 dinars. The first available information on the standard deviation of the
studied variable is Sn = 3 dinars. What should be the minimum size of the sample to
achieve the required accuracy.
3 We seek to estimate the popularity of a certain political party in Tunisia with an accuracy
level less than 1.5%. According to the previous parliamentary elections it is known that
the voting intentions for this party does not exceed 25%. What is the required sample
size.

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 Probability sampling techniques Simple random sampling (SRS)

Solution for exercise 3

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( in class )
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 Probability sampling techniques Simple random sampling (SRS)

Systematic sampling I I

Systematic Sampling is when you choose every “nth” individual to be a part of the sample.
For example, we choose every 5th person to be in the sample. Systematic sampling is an
extended implementation of the same old probability technique in which each member of the
group is selected at regular periods to form a sample. There’s an equal opportunity for every
member of a population to be selected using this sampling technique.

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 Probability sampling techniques Simple random sampling (SRS)

Systematic sampling II

There is a gap, or a constant interval between each two successive selected.

steps to follow:
Number from 1 to N all units of the population.
Determine the sampling interval K by dividing the number N (population size), by the
N
number n (sample size): K = .
n
Randomly select a number between 1 and K . This number d is the origin and it is the
first number included in the sample.
Select each K th unit after this first number. The sample obtained is formed by the units
of order: d, d + K , d + 2K , d + 3K , . . . , d + (n − 1)K .

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 Probability sampling techniques Systematic sampling

Systematic sampling III

Advantages
Selecting the easy sample: just get a random number (the origin) and the rest of the sample
will be determined automatically.

Disadvantage
The sample is unrepresentative if there is a certain cycle corresponding to the sampling
interval in the population list.

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 Probability sampling techniques Systematic sampling

Example

A telephone directory contains all the people contact in your area (this list is the frame). Since
there are 25,013 names in the directory and your sample will be 1,250 individuals, you will need
to choose a name from each block of 20 individuals. If by chance we start at the 7th contact
position in the list, then, our second unit will be the 27th, our third unit is the 47th and so on.

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 Probability sampling techniques Systematic sampling

A little programming with R

Systematic sampling is used when it is not possible to use computer program or an automated
process. Always, this method is applied manually. But as an exercise in R programming, let’s
try to make an R program for the systematic sampling.
Copy the following text and paste it on the R console.
ech_sys = function(N, n)
{
K = N/n
e = as.integer(K) # integer part of K
#random choice of the starting point
point_dep = sample(1:e,1)
# choice of sample elements
ech = seq(point_dep,N,by=e)
ech
}
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 Probability sampling techniques Sampling with probability proportional to the units size

Sampling with probability proportional to size: PPS sampling

The probability that a unit is selected depends on its size (or weight) in the population.
The unit with larger size has the greatest chance of being included in the sample.
Advantage: Increased efficiency.
Disadvantage: Requires additional information on the units to be probed.

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 Probability sampling techniques Sampling with probability proportional to the units size

Example

In accounting auditing the accountant should devote more effort to check invoices with high
amounts than invoices with low amounts.
Based on this selection method, an invoice with an amount of 10000 dinars has ten time
probability to be chosen than an invoice with 1000 dinars.

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 Probability sampling techniques Sampling with probability proportional to the units size

Consider the list of 10 invoices presented in the following table. Then, let us make an R
program generating a PPS sample of 4 invoices to check.
Invoice number Amount

1 12 930
2 1 245 190
3 379 150
4 3 843 030
5 289 460
6 1 210 260
7 7 245 010
8 45 890
9 125 120
10 8 049 290

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 Probability sampling techniques Sampling with probability proportional to the units size

Solution with R

soldes=c(12930,1245190,379150,3843030,289460,
1210260,7245010,45890,125120,8049290)
total=sum(soldes)
Pr=soldes/total
l=1:10
sample(x=l,size=4,replace=FALSE,prob=Pr)

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 Probability sampling techniques Stratified random sampling

Proportionate stratified random sampling I

The population is subdivided into strata (relatively homogeneous groups) which are
mutually exclusive.
From each strata the same proportion of individuals is drawn. The sampling rate is the
same in all strata.

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 Probability sampling techniques Stratified random sampling

Example of proportionate stratified random sampling

Suppose that 60 % of the students of an institute are enrolled in management science and 40%
in economics; to form a sample of 120 students following these strata, one should randomly
choose 60% × 120 = 72 students in management and 40% × 120 = 48 in economics.

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 Probability sampling techniques Stratified random sampling

Disproportionate stratified sampling

The only difference between proportionate and disproportionate stratified random sampling is
their sampling fractions. With disproportionate sampling, the different strata have different
sampling fractions.

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 Probability sampling techniques Stratified random sampling

Accuracy estimation
Notation :
Nh : size of strata number h.
H : number of strata.
X̄h : the mean of the strata h (h = 1, . . . , H).
nh : size of the sample gotten from the strata h.
fh = Nnhh : Sampling fraction inside the strata h. This fraction is constant for the
proportionate sampling.
Sh2 : the variance of the strata h.
Estimation :
H
b = X Nh X
X st h
N
h=1
Accuracy:
H 2 h n
b ) = X( Nh )2 (1 − f ) Sh avec S 2 = 1 X(x − xb̄ )2
V (X st h h i h
N nh nh − 1
h=1 i=1
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 Probability sampling techniques Stratified random sampling

Advantages
Representative sample (members of each subgroup are included).
Population estimators (eg, average) are much more accurate (less variance than SRS).
Disadvantage
The right criteria must be found, according to which the population will be divided into
several strata.
Additional information about the data are needed: If we stratify the data according to the
gender, then in addition to the contact list we need also the gender list of the population
which is not necessarily available.

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 Probability sampling techniques Stratified random sampling

Exercise 3 I

We have 1060 companies. We are interested in the average of the turnover performed by these
companies per month (expressed in thousand dinars). The population is defined by 5 strata
per size range depending on the number of executives. A simple random sample is carried out
in each strata h according to a budget that makes it possible to survey 300 companies in total,
we measure yh and the dispersion Sh2 of the variable ”Turnover” in the sample of companies
drawn. The information describing the sample is summarized in the following table:

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 Probability sampling techniques Stratified random sampling

Exercise 3 II

Size slice Nh Yh Sh2 nh

0-9 500 5 1.5 130
10-19 300 12 4 80
20-49 150 30 8 60
50-499 100 150 100 25
500 and more 10 600 2500 5
Total 1060 300

Calculate an estimate of the average Y . Calculate the precision of this estimate and its
confidence interval.

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 Probability sampling techniques Stratified random sampling

Solution

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In class
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 Probability sampling techniques Cluster sampling

Cluster sampling

Separate the population into subgroups called clusters. A random number of clusters are
selected.
All elements of these clusters are part of the sample: it is like we are doing a census inside
each cluster.
Advantage
This method is useful to reduce transport costs when the population is very large
geographically.
Disadvantages
The sample may not be representative of the population. The loss of accuracy of the
estimators is due to the correlation between the responses of the elements of the same cluster.

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 Probability sampling techniques Cluster sampling

Example

A PhD student conducts research on Tunisian students satisfaction of services offered by

university homes. She can not send her questionnaire to every student in these homes, since it
takes too much time and money. She, therefore, decides to use the cluster sampling method.
Each university home represents a subgroup (cluster). She randomly chooses a number of
homes, then she sends a questionnaire to each student in those homes. Students from these
selected homes make up his sample.

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 Probability sampling techniques Cluster sampling

Estimation and accuracy

rating
M: number of clusters.
m: number of clusters drawn
Xh : The average in the cluster number h.
1 PM
N=M h=1 Nh
Estimate
m
c = 1 X Nh X
Xcl h
m N h=1

Accuracy
m
c ) ≈ M − m 1 X ( Nh X − X ) 2
Var (Xcl h cl
Mm m − 1 N h=1

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 Probability sampling techniques Cluster sampling

Exercise 4 I
A statistician wants to conduct a survey on the quality of care provided in hospital cardiology
departments. To do this, he randomly draws 7 hospitals out of the 50 hospitals listed, then, in
each of the hospitals drawn, he receives the opinion of all patients in the cardiology
department.
Hospital Total Number of beds Number of
(or patients) in each dissatisfied
cardiology department (Nh ) patients by hospital
h=1 60 6
h=2 45 4
h=3 50 6
h=4 55 5
h=5 55 5
h=6 40 5
h=7 50 7
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 Probability sampling techniques Cluster sampling

Exercise 4 II

The average number of patients for all departments is 52.

1 Find out an estimate of the proportion p of dissatisfied patients.
2 Calculate the variance of the estimate.
3 Construct the 95 % confidence interval of p.

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 Probability sampling techniques Multistage sampling

Multistage sampling

Similar to cluster sampling, except that in this case a sample is taken from each cluster.
We have at least two degrees. The first one identifies large clusters (primary units). In the
second degree, within each cluster, the units (secondary units) that will be part of the sample
are selected.
We can have more than two degrees. Suppose that we need to study health care quality
services. It would be costly in time and money to contact sample of patients in all Tunisian
health facilities. To make the survey realizable we can follow a multi-stage sampling with 4
levels.
1 Level 1: Gouvernorate
2 Level 2: City
3 Level 3: Health facility
4 Level 4: Patient

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 Probability sampling techniques Multistage sampling

Advantage and disadvantage

Advantage
It costs less and it is more speed than SRS.
Disadvantage
Not as accurate as Simple Random Sampling if the sample has same size.

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 Non-probability methods Judgmental sampling

Judgmental sampling

Sample selection based on some judgments about the entire population, ie an investigator
selects units that he or she considers to be characteristics of the population.
Advantage: Reduced cost and time
Disadvantage: Subjectivity of the investigator

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 Non-probability methods Judgmental sampling

Example

A city council chooses to hold its socio-economic survey in only one district of the city,
claiming that this chosen neighborhood resembles the majority of others. Considering the cost
/ benefit ratio, there is no benefit in extending their survey to a second district.

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 Non-probability methods Quota method

Quota method

The quota method is a sampling method that consists of ensuring the representativity of a
sample by assigning it a structure similar to that of the base population.
The main difference between this type of sampling and the stratified one is that it is the
investigator who decides which units form the sample.
Advantages
Less costly and easier to perform.
Respect the proportions of the population.
Disadvantages
This method is not done by chance. Then, it can create a biased sample.
The distribution of the variable in the population must be known to reproduce it in the
sample.

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 Non-probability methods Quota method

Example

In a university, 70% of the students are in the first cycle, 20% in the second cycle and 10% in
the third cycle. To compile a sample of 200 students from this university, the investigator
arbitrarily selected 140 undergraduate, 40 graduate and 20 undergraduate students.

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 Non-probability methods Route sampling

Route sampling

For each randomly-chosen sampling points (e.g., urban units, small cities, or voting districts),
interviewers are assigned with a starting location and provided with instructions on the random
walking rules – e.g., which direction to start, on which side of the streets to walk and which
crossroads to take. Households are selected by interviewers following the instructions.

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 Sample adjustment Adjustment according to a quantitative variable

Adjustment according to a quantitative variable

Example :
A sample of 80 supermarkets is considered. We try to estimate the average turnover Y .
On a random sample we have: y = 110.2 dinars.
It is known that the average number µ of cash register in the supermarkets is 28.
In the sample we have: x = 28.8.
b = y µ = 110.2 ∗ 28/28.8
The quotient estimate of the mean is: Y q
x

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 Sample adjustment Adjustment according to a quantitative variable

Exercise

We consider 120 farms. An attempt is made to estimate the average production of olive oil
per farm. The average number of olive trees per farm is 130. 45 firms were randomly selected.
The average production per farm for this sample is 120.5 liters and the average number of
olive trees is 123. What will be the average production after adjustment?

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 Sample adjustment Adjustment by weight

Adjustment by weight

Nh
This method uses the N weights of the stratified sampling method:

M
b = X Nh y
Y
N h
h=1

with:
nh
1 X
yh = yj
nh
j=1
Nh
Then the weight for each observation yj is: Nnh .

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 Sample adjustment Other method

Adjustment by deleting or bootsrapping

By deleting:
In order to have the same characteristics of the reference population, we can select
randomly some observations from the sample to delete.
By bootstrapping:
In order to have the same characteristics of the reference population, we can create a new
bootstrap sample from the available sample.

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 Exercises

Exercises I

Indicate the sampling method used to collect the following samples:

a) An association conducted a survey of the number of its members selected by random
draw from the list of members.
b) A factory produces 1000 pieces a day. To check the quality of the product, a sample of 50
pieces is taken every day as follows: a piece of production is taken after every produced
20 pieces. The first piece is selected at random between the 1st and the 20th first
produced pieces.
c) We wish to conduct a survey on students opinions about the satisfaction of the
administration services. We know that the percentage of male at TBS is 30% and 70%
for female. To create a random sample of size 200 with respect to gender partition, we
interview 60 males and 140 females at random in in the cafeteria of the university. on
d) As same as for c), but this time we select randomly from the list of all TBS students.

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 Exercises

Exercise2

Imagine that a local clothing company has 2,700 employees. The Personnel Director wants
suggestions from employees on how to improve their workplace. Since it would take too long
to question all employees, the director chooses a systematic sample of 300 employees.
a) What would be the sampling interval?
b) If number 8 was your first random number, what would be the first 5 numbers in your
sample?
c) How many different samples are possible according to this technique?

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 Exercises

Answers

Question 1 :
a) SRS sample
b) systematic
c) Quota method
d) Stratified sampling
Question 2 :
a) The sampling interval is 9 (2700 / 300).
b) The first five numbers for selected observation are: 8, 17, 26, 35, 44.
c) 9 different samples

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