Classification: Confidential

MET Data & Capacity

Constrained Operations
Andy Knight
Aircraft Operations Manager

Classification: Confidential
 Classification: Confidential

Heathrow is (usually)
capacity constrained
• Prior to Covid-19 we were full &
operated to capacity all day, every day

• Our daily operating hours are restricted

by the UK Department for Transport

“
• We have minimal ability to recover from
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Weather has the greatest impact on our operation

• Fog
• Strong Winds
• Thunderstorms
• Snow & Ice
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MET data is vital

• Developments in MET are essential to increasing resilience and operational

performance of our airport

• This means less delay and better punctuality for passengers, better
service for all of our customers

• We can make better operational decisions at an earlier stage to make

best use of our capacity
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 Classification: Confidential

MET Product Input: Example

• Met Office forecaster (SOM) based in Heathrow APOC

• CB/TS risk forecast produced in LTCC, Swanwick

• SOM can liaise with LTCC forecaster & align impact to Heathrow

• SOM able to speak directly to APOC stakeholders & duty teams

• SOM able to translate impacts in DCB

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DCB: Demand Capacity Balancer

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DCB: MET Interface

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AOP: What is the plan?

• Produced at D-2, refined at D-1 using DCB

• Compares forecast demand vs. scheduled demand

• Indicates likely flow constraints for arrivals &

departures

• Commentary on likely impact of weather &

operational restrictions

• DCB feeds directly into AOP to publish plan for all

airport stakeholders

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AOP Arrivals

DCB = PIBT
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AOP Departures

DCB = POBT
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Capacity Constraints Interventions

DvC & HADACAB

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What are the interventions?

HADACAB is the Heathrow ATM Demand and Capacity Balancing Group. The term is used colloquially to
describe an intervention by the airport to reduce demand when Heathrow is faced with a capacity
constraint. It is one of four levels of intervention and is overseen by the Aircraft Operations Duty Manager.

HADACAB
Established in October 2011 in response to a recommendation made by the Begg Report following
the winter of 2010/11.

Demand vs. Capacity (DvC)

Established in 2013 following a consultation with airlines. It is used to facilitate the airport’s
response to weather events with a shorter impact, usually up to 24 hours.

Both are air traffic management (ATM)-centric. They focus on capacity constraints due to lack of airspace
or runway capacity. Interventions are calculated using the proposed Heathrow Service Plan (HSP).

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Summary Approach

Detect threat

Determine capacity reduction

Determine demand reduction

Inform airlines of requirement

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 Level 1 Level 2
Classification: Confidential Level 3 Level 4
Business as Usual DvC HADACAB HADACAB

All airlines may be affected at the discretion of the Duty All airlines may be affected at the discretion of the Duty
Short-haul operators predominantly, although any airline
Airlines that operate 5 or more rotations per day at Director as to the relevant application, e.g. the Duty Director as to the relevant application, e.g. the Duty
Who is affected? can be offered the opportunity to utilise the proposed
Heathrow, which is usually just over 20 carriers. Director may grant concessions to airlines with a small Director may grant concessions to airlines with a small
intervention(s).
number of rotations. number of rotations.

Three daily Heathrow Operations Conference Calls On the day prior to any expected disruption, the AODM A Level 3 intervention may be an escalation by the AODM A Level 4 intervention may be an escalation from Level 3
(HOCCs) take place at 0900, 1330 and 2030 where the considers the available D-1 weather forecasts and the D-1 from Level 2 and/or directly notified to the Duty Director and/or directly notified to the Duty Director for:
AODM provides updates on the current day’s schedule Heathrow Service Plan (which may be further reviewed for:
performance and an outlook for the coming period with ‘what if’ scenarios in DCB). If required, the AODM • Loss of a critical asset and/or associated
(approximately six hours). updates operational stakeholders on the 0900 HOCC, • Any weather event with a significant impact that is infrastructure over an extended period typically
based on these parameters, that one of the following expected to last for longer than 24 hours; and/or greater than 24 hours, including runways, aprons
The AODM decides whether tactical interventions are triggers is met: (including stands) and taxiway infrastructure;
• Any weather event that lasts longer than
required to protect the operation in reaction to events on
anticipated with a significant ongoing impact i.e. • Loss of terminal or terminals;
the current day and briefs regular operational • An AFR or departure flow restriction indicates a
substantial snowfall causing the significant impact.
stakeholder participants on the call with the intended significant schedule slippage, predicted to result in • Loss of airspace adversely affecting Heathrow’s

course of action. Triggers include: an excessive number of Night Jet Movements, operation;

considered to be 10 or more; • Loss of Aerodrome Ground Lighting (AGL);

• Arrival Flow Regulation (AFR) when the flow rate is
• In the summer season, an AFR of 36/60 for 4 • Loss of critical airfield resource;
Triggers less than demand for extended hours;
hours or more. In the winter season this becomes
• Loss of Control Tower and/or resource;
• Disruptive weather is observed across Europe an AFR of 34/60 for 4 hours or more;
and/or the London Terminal Manoeuvring Area • Significant restriction on passenger processing
• A ‘High’ or ‘Medium High’ risk of fog is forecast
(LTMA) affecting Heathrow’s operation; and capacity (e.g. loss of main tunnel, significant and
for more than 3 hours during operating hours;
unplanned changes in security regulations,
• Industrial action affecting the operation.
• Snow is forecast with accumulations, requiring implementation of material embarkation checks);
airfield resources to be activated; and and/or
If required, the AODM can escalate to DvC or HADACAB if
• Any combination of the above factors. • Industrial action.
the relevant triggers are met.
If required, the AODM can escalate to HADACAB if the
relevant triggers are met.

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What usually triggers intervention?

An intervention may be made by the AODM based on the criteria below. It can also be triggered directly
for any weather event with a significant impact typically greater than 24 hours or longer, or any event or
loss of asset seriously affecting processing capacity.

Arrival Flow Rate Night Jet Weather

(less than) Movements
H or MH
36/60 10+ risk of fog,
or snow
2

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EU261 Alleviation
Flight details provided to UK CAA by 2359z on D-1
are exempted from passenger compensation.

It must be demonstrated that the flights were

cancelled due to the DvC requirement and not for
another reason, e.g. technical.

The flights are published on the CAA’s public website

for passengers’ reference.

Separately, on D+1 ACL will review the event to

determine if criteria for alleviation from the 80/20 ‘use
it or lose it’ slot regulation are met.

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EU Reg 793/2004 Alleviation

On D+1 ACL will review the event to review criteria for
alleviation from the 80/20 ‘use it or lose it’ slot regulation,
justified by any of the following reasons in Article 10(4) which
includes inter alia:

• Closure of an airport or airspace

• Serious disturbance of operations at the airports concerned,

including other Community airports related to routes which
have been affected by such disturbance

• Interruption of air services due to action intended to affect

these services which makes it practically and/or technically
impossible for the air carrier to carry out operations as
planned

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DvC – Storm Ciara 9 February 2020

Post-Event Analysis & Wash Up

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D-1 Actions

• Weather Risk from D-4 to D-1

• Pre-tactical Heathrow Service Plan D-2 to D-1

• DCB modelling of impacts

• AODM’s proposal for DvC intervention

• Weather briefing used in 1100L DvC call

• Assemble DvC stakeholders on conference call to seek

consensus agreement

“
• Promulgate applicable NOTAMs

• Cancellations sent to CAA by 2359 The DvC procedure

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Weather Risk from D-4 to D-1

The Met Office warned of Storm Ciara and associated risks from Wednesday 05FEB. The forecasts for
strong winds remained stable each day in the lead up to the event.

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Weather Risk at D-1

In addition to strong winds and frontal rain, a risk existed of thunderstorm activity behind the clearing front
likely to lead to weather avoidance in the LTMA with associated risk of STAM and TSAT delay.

At 1500Z
Showers & squalls entering LTMA from NW with
high risk of embedded CB/TS moving at
moderate speed.

At 1800Z
Band of showers lying across the LTMA with high
risk of embedded CB/TS moving at moderate
speed towards the SE and clearing by 2100Z.

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D-1 Triggers NJMs AFR Wx Risk

0900 HOCC 10+ 34/60 or less* Strong Winds

Duration 4 hours or more

*in winter

Heathrow Service Plan D-2 to D-1

The HSP predicted westerly operations all day. On both days the plan acknowledged the strong 3000’
winds coupled with surface and crosswinds gusts, so an arrival flow rate regulation value was suggested
from start up to 2200z with a strong signal of Night Jet Movements. Moderate to high TSAT delay was
expected 1100-2000z, peaking at 1600z due to a northbound departure bias.

AFR TSAT Delay MET

Storm force winds,

CBs, surface &
35/60 0640-0800
crosswind gusts
exceeding 45
30/60 0800-2300 2
knots

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Heathrow Service Plan Amended

Shortly prior to the DvC conference call NATS amended the planned arrival flow rate regulation values
down to address the wider risk to the LTMA, other London airports and diversionary capacity for missed
approaches, with a higher signal of Night Jet Movements. High TSAT delay was now expected 1100-2100z.

AFR TSAT Delay MET

30/60 0640-0800 Storm force winds,

CBs, surface &
25/60 0800-1800 crosswind gusts
exceeding 45
2
30/60 1800-2300 knots

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DCB Modelling of Impacts

DCB showed an unacceptable level of air holding without intervention, driving over 140 NJMs. A 30% reduction between 0900Z & 2100Z resolved the imbalance.

Without intervention

With intervention

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DCB Modelling of Impacts

The cancellation rule proposed by DCB shows the profile required to alleviate air holding, minimize NJMs and tactical cancellations.

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DCB Modelling of Impacts

DCB shows the reduction in start delay with the proposed intervention.

Without intervention

With intervention

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AODM’s Proposed Intervention

To resolve the imbalance of predicted capacity against scheduled demand, the AODM proposed a 30%
schedule reduction between 0900Z and 2100Z. Due to the risk of crosswind gusts, turbulence, windshear
and the associated go around/missed approach risk, the AODM proposed to use RWY 27L for arriving
traffic for the full flying programme.

Reduction ATM Levers Runways

• Airfield closed for
diversions
De-alternated,
30% operating 27L
• Ad hoc slot ban
arrivals all day
0900-2100 2
• Pre-0602 arrivals
permitted

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Airline Arrivals Departures

AA 3 3

AC 2 2

AF 1 1

AY 1 1

BA 72 72

BE 4 4

CX 2 2

DL 2 2

EI 7 7

EK 1 1

EW 3 3

IB 2 2

KL 0 0

LH 6 6

LX 3 3

QR 1 1

SK 4 4

TK 1 2 1

TP 2 2

UA 3 3

VS 5 5

TOTAL 125 125

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DvC Call Participant List

• Aircraft Operations Duty Manager

• HOEC – NATS Interface

• Met Office

• Airfield Duty Manager

• CAA

• ACL (Slot Coordinator)

• DvC Member Airlines 20+

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NOTAMs
DvC Requirement
Permission for Pre-0602 Arrivals
(A0467/20 NOTAMN
(A0465/20 NOTAMN
Q) EGTT/QFALT/IV/NBO/A /000/999/5129N00028W005
Q) EGTT/QFAXX/IV/NBO/A /000/999/5129N00028W005
A) EGLL B) 2002090900 C) 2002092100
A) EGLL B) 2002090001 C) 2002090602
E) DUE TO STRONG WINDS AERODROME IS OPERATING UNDER
E) DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALL AIRCRAFT ARE PERMITTED TO LAND
DEMAND REDUCTION PROCESS BETWEEN 0900 AND 2100
BEFORE 0602 BUT CANNOT LAND PRIOR TO 0431. EMERGENCY TRAFFIC
REFER TO THE AIP. PARTICIPATING AIRLINE OPERATORS ARE
EXEMPT FROM ANY TIME RESTRICTIONS.)
REQUIRED TO REDUCE THEIR SCHEDULES BY 30 PERCENT.)

Closure to Diversions
(A0466/20 NOTAMN
Q) EGTT/QFALT/IV/NBO/A /000/999/5129N00028W005
A) EGLL B) 2002090001 C) 2002092359
E) DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER AERODROME IS UNAVAILABLE FOR
DIVERTED TRAFFIC. HOME BASED CARRIERS AND EMERGENCY TRAFFIC
ARE EXEMPT FROM THIS REQUIREMENT.)

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Cancellation Requirement
Used to monitor compliance with requested intervention and subsequent
review in quarterly DvC Steering Group.

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D-0 Actions

• Observed weather on D-0

• Arrival Flow Rate Regulations

• D+1 post-operations data from NATS

• D+1 post-operations network data from NMOC

• Diversions

• Night Jet Movements

• Pre-0602 arrivals

“
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Observed MET
The observed weather, in this case a disruptive weather summary, is too
large for this presentation and is provided as a separate PDF file, stored in
the DvC library.

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Observed MET
New transatlantic subsonic speed records were set by two flights
on 9 February between New York and London, BA112 and VS4.

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Observed MET
Big Jet TV was essential viewing for aviation
fans worldwide who tuned in to watch over
6 hours of live footage of aircraft arriving at
Heathrow on Runway 27L.

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Arrival Flow Rates

AFR Regulation Value Start Time (local) Planned End Time (local)

Time Arrival Departure SRO

30 0640 0700
0600 27L 27R
25 0800 1200
0947-0958 27R
18 1200 1700 1158-1210 27L STOP

26 1700 1800 1210-2326 27L 27R

2326 27L
35 1800 1900

37 1900 2000

There was 4,376 minutes of delay for 210 regulated flights, an average delay 21 minutes each.

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NATS D+1 Post-Ops

NATS produces a post operations analysis for every day of the
operation. The report for 9 February is provided as a separate
PDF file and is stored in the DvC library.

34 go arounds were recorded.

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Flight number Passengers DIV Outcome DIV Details Reason

Diversions (14) LX352

QR003 262
CANX

Returned to LHR 10/2

GVA to GVA

DOH to MAN
Storm Ciara

Storm Ciara

UA930 181 Returned to LHR 10/2 as UA2817 SFO to MUC Storm Ciara

BA549 92 Returned to LHR 10/2 FCO to MUC Storm Ciara

BA288 143 Returned to LHR 10/2 as BA2884 PHX to MUC Storm Ciara

BA196 126 Returned to LHR 10/2 IAH to FRA Storm Ciara

OS461 CANX VIE to VIE Storm Ciara

JJ8084 CANX GRU to BCN Storm Ciara

AV120 196 Returned to LHR 10/2 BOG to MUC Storm Ciara

BA008 231 Returned LHR 10/2 HND to MUC Storm Ciara

BA949 CANX MUC to MUC Storm Ciara

JU380 CANX BEG to FRA Storm Ciara

BA1487 126 Later arrived at LHR GLA to NCL Storm Ciara

LH2476 Missed approach then return to MUC MUC to MUC Storm Ciara

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Network View

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Night Jet Movements (3)

• BA482 – DEP BCN Barcelona 2340Z (rotational delay)

• BA83 – DEP ABV Abuja 2342Z (rotational delay)

• BA245 – DEP EZE Buenos Aires 0016Z (45 minutes to offload pax)

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Unplanned Pre-0602 Landers (16)

There was a total of 33 flights that landed prior to 0602 on 9 Planned Landing
Flight number Origin Actual Landing Time
February (but not before 0430). Time
BA064 NBO 09/02/2020 06:15 09/02/2020 05:49
17 of these are planned flights. There were 16 unplanned flights as a TG910 BKK 09/02/2020 06:20 09/02/2020 05:45
result of the AODM permitting early flights in accordance with
NOTAM A0465/20. VS450 JNB 09/02/2020 06:20 09/02/2020 05:54

BA112 JFK 09/02/2020 06:25 09/02/2020 04:42

BA092 YYZ 09/02/2020 06:25 09/02/2020 05:10

VS004 JFK 09/02/2020 06:30 09/02/2020 04:55

BA212 BOS 09/02/2020 06:30 09/02/2020 05:05

BA184 EWR 09/02/2020 06:30 09/02/2020 05:13

BA216 IAD 09/02/2020 06:30 09/02/2020 05:29

AC856 YYZ 09/02/2020 06:30 09/02/2020 05:59

BA206 MIA 09/02/2020 06:35 09/02/2020 05:35

UA918 IAD 09/02/2020 06:40 09/02/2020 05:52

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D-0 Cancellations (174)

The cancellation list for all flights on 9 February is too large for this
presentation and is provided as a separate Excel file, stored in the
DvC library.

Further to the 300 cancellations received by 2359Z on 8 February, a

further 174 tactical cancellations were recorded on the day – so a
total of 474 cancellations for the day.

Classification: Confidential
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Performance
All performance data and flight records
are stored in AOP for up to 99 days.

Classification: Confidential
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Arrival
Performance
All performance data and flight records
are stored in AOP for up to 99 days.

Classification: Confidential
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Departure
Performance
All performance data and flight records
are stored in AOP for up to 99 days.

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80% Early Arrivals as transatlantic

flights break records due to strong
jet stream (Peaking at 235mph)
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Start delay peaking at an

average of 21.6 minutes
Few CTOTs were applied throughout the day,
however, TSAT delay due to strong winds

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Please provide feedback to [email protected]

All documents stored at www.heathrow.com/DvC

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