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AI-Driven Exploration and Prediction of Company

Registration Trends with Registrar of Companies (RoC)

TEAM MEMBER:822621104024 – B.MOHMAED ASARUDEEN

Phase-1 :Document Submission

Project: AI-Driven Exploration and Prediction


Abstract- AI-driven exploration and prediction of company registration trends with
the Registrar of Companies (ROC) involves using artificial intelligence and data
analytics techniques to analyse and forecast patterns in company registrations. This
can be a valuable tool for businesses, investors, policymakers, and researchers to gain
insights into economic trends, market dynamics, and regulatory changes.

1.Data Source: Registrar of Companies :


Data Collection Method: The dataset was obtained through a combination of web
scraping, API access, and official government records, ensuring accuracy and
completeness.

Dataset Structure:
The dataset is structured with the following columns:
Company Name: The legal name of the registered company.
Status: The current registration status of the company (e.g., active, inactive, dissolved).
Class: The classification of the company based on its activities (e.g., private, public,
limited, unlimited).
Category: The industry category or sector to which the company belongs (e.g.,
technology, finance, manufacturing).
Registration Date: The date on which the company was officially registered with RoC.
Authorized Capital: The maximum amount of capital that the company is authorized
to raise through shares.
Paid-up Capital: The actual amount of capital that has been invested or paid by the
company's shareholders.
Location: The registered address or location of the company.
[Add more relevant columns as needed, such as contact information, directors,
shareholders, etc.]

Data Usage:
Researchers and analysts can utilize this dataset for a wide range of purposes,
including but not limited to:

2. Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA):


Explore the distribution of registered companies by class, category, and location.
Trend Analysis: Analyze historical data to identify trends in company registrations over
time.
Predictive Modeling: Develop predictive models to forecast future company
registration trends based on historical data.
Industry Insights: Gain insights into the distribution of companies across different
industry categories.
Geospatial Analysis: Visualize and analyze the geographic distribution of registered
companies.
Risk Assessment: Assess the financial health and stability of registered companies
based on authorized and paid-up capital.
Data preprocessing is a crucial step in preparing the dataset for analysis and prediction.
In this context, we'll clean and preprocess the data, handle missing values, and convert
categorical features into numerical representations.
SOURCE CODE:
import pandas as pd
# Assuming df is your DataFrame
# Handle missing values
df['authorized capital'].fillna(df['authorized capital'].mean(), inplace=True)
df['paid-up capital'].fillna(df['paid-up capital'].median(), inplace=True)
df['registration date'].fillna(method='ffill', inplace=True) # Forward fill missing dates
# Encode categorical features
df = pd.get_dummies(df, columns=['class', 'category'], drop_first=True)
3. Feature Scaling:
Depending on the algorithms you plan to use, it might be necessary to scale or
normalize numerical features to a common range (e.g., 0 to 1) to prevent some
features from dominating others. Common scaling methods include Min-Max scaling
and Standardization (Z-score scaling).

from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler


scaler = MinMaxScaler()
df[['authorized capital', 'paid-up capital']] = scaler.fit_transform(df[['authorized
capital', 'paid-up capital']])

4. Date Transformation:
You can extract relevant information from the 'registration date' column, such as year,
month, or day, and create new features. This can help capture seasonality or time-
related trends.
df['registration year'] = pd.to_datetime(df['registration date']).dt.year
df['registration month'] = pd.to_datetime(df['registration date']).dt.month

5. Data Splitting:
Split your dataset into training and testing subsets to evaluate model performance.
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
X = df.drop(['Status'], axis=1) # Assuming 'Status' is your target variable
y = df['Status']
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42)

3. Data Preprocessing:
Data reduction is beneficial when you require a smaller representation of the data on
your database. It can help you discard unimportant data, which can increase your
data's readability and accuracy. Attribute selection is integral to data reduction, as it
helps combine new and existing features in a dataset, helping ensure smooth analysis.
1. Data Overview:
Display basic information about the dataset, such as the number of rows, columns,
and data types.

import pandas as pd
# Load the preprocessed dataset
df = pd.read_csv('company_registration_data.csv')
# Display basic information
print("Dataset Shape:", df.shape)
print("\nColumn Data Types:\n", df.dtypes)

2. Summary Statistics:
Calculate summary statistics to get an overview of numerical columns. This includes
measures like mean, median, standard deviation, and quartiles.
# Summary statistics
summary_stats = df.describe()
print("\nSummary Statistics:\n", summary_stats)

3. Data Distribution:
Visualize the distribution of key numerical features using histograms or density plots.
This helps identify patterns and outliers.
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns

# Visualize data distribution


plt.figure(figsize=(12, 6))
sns.histplot(df['authorized capital'], bins=30, kde=True)
plt.title('Distribution of Authorized Capital')
plt.xlabel('Authorized Capital')
plt.ylabel('Frequency')
plt.show()

4. Categorical Features:
Explore the distribution of categorical features using bar plots to understand the
prevalence of different categories.
# Visualize categorical features
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 6))
sns.countplot(data=df, x='class_private', hue='Status')
plt.title('Distribution of Private Companies by Registration Status')
plt.xlabel('Private Company')
plt.ylabel('Count')
plt.legend(title='Status', loc='upper right')
plt.show()

5. Correlation Analysis:
Calculate and visualize correlations between numerical features using a heatmap.
This helps identify potential relationships between variables.
# Correlation heatmap
correlation_matrix = df.corr()
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 8))
sns.heatmap(correlation_matrix, annot=True, cmap='coolwarm', fmt=".2f")
plt.title('Correlation Heatmap')
plt.show()

6. Time Series Analysis :


If 'registration date' is included, perform time series analysis to identify trends,
seasonality, and cyclical patterns.
# Time series analysis
df['registration date'] = pd.to_datetime(df['registration date'])
df.set_index('registration date', inplace=True)

plt.figure(figsize=(12, 6))
df.resample('M').size().plot(legend=False)
plt.title('Monthly Company Registrations')
plt.xlabel('Date')
plt.ylabel('Count')
plt.show()

7. Outlier Detection:
Identify and handle outliers that may affect the analysis. Box plots or scatter plots
can be helpful in this regard.
# Box plot for outliers
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 6))
sns.boxplot(data=df, x='class_private', y='authorized capital')
plt.title('Authorized Capital Distribution by Company Class')
plt.xlabel('Company Class')
plt.ylabel('Authorized Capital')
plt.show()

8. Geospatial Analysis :
If location data is available, create geospatial visualizations to analyze the geographic
distribution of registered companies.
These EDA steps will provide valuable insights into the dataset, helping you
understand the distribution, relationships, and unique characteristics of registered
companies. These insights can guide further analysis and model building for
predicting company registration trends with the Registrar of Companies (RoC).

4. Feature engineering:
It involves creating new features or transforming existing ones to improve the
model's predictive power. Here are some feature engineering ideas:
1. Date-Related Features:
Extract information from the 'registration date' column to create additional date-
related features such as:
Year of registration
Month of registration
Quarter of registration
Day of the week of registration
df['registration_year'] = df['registration date'].dt.year
df['registration_month'] = df['registration date'].dt.month
df['registration_quarter'] = df['registration date'].dt.quarter
df['registration_day_of_week'] = df['registration date'].dt.dayofweek

2. Capital Ratios:
Calculate ratios between 'authorized capital' and 'paid-up capital.' This can provide
insights into the financial health of companies.
df['capital_ratio'] = df['paid-up capital'] / df['authorized capital']
3. Age of Companies:
Calculate the age of each registered company by subtracting the 'registration date'
from the current date.

from datetime import datetime


current_date = datetime.now()
df['company_age'] = (current_date - df['registration date']).dt.days / 365 # Age in
years
4. Location-Based Features:
If you have location data, you can create features related to the geographic location
of companies, such as:
Number of registered companies in the same city or region
Distance to major business districts or economic centers
Regional economic indicators
5. Time Series Features:
If you have a time series dataset, you can engineer lag features to capture historical
trends. For example, you can create features like 'number of registrations in the
previous month' or 'percentage change in registrations compared to the same month
last year.'
6. Industry Trends:
Incorporate external data sources or economic indicators that can reflect industry-
specific trends. For instance, you might include stock market indices, interest rates,
or GDP growth rates to capture the broader economic context.
7. Market Share:
If data is available, calculate the market share of each company within its industry or
sector. This can provide insights into the competitive landscape.
# Calculate market share based on the number of companies in the same category
df['market_share'] = 1 / df.groupby('category')['category'].transform('count')
8. Sentiment Analysis:
If you have access to textual data, perform sentiment analysis on news articles or
social media mentions related to registered companies. Incorporate sentiment scores
as features to capture public perception and sentiment around each company.
9. Historical Data Aggregation:
If you have access to historical data, create aggregated features such as moving
averages, rolling sums, or cumulative statistics. These can help capture long-term
trends.
Remember to assess the impact of these engineered features on model performance
through feature selection techniques and cross-validation. Feature engineering is an
iterative process, and the relevance of features may vary depending on the specific
predictive task and dataset.

5.Predictive modeling:
Predictive modeling is a crucial step in AI-Driven Exploration and Prediction of
Company Registration Trends with Registrar of Companies (RoC). You can apply
various machine learning algorithms to develop predictive models for future
company registrations. Here's a general framework for predictive modeling:

1. Data Preparation:
Ensure your dataset is preprocessed, including handling missing values and encoding
categorical features.
Split the data into training and testing sets for model evaluation.
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
X = df.drop(['Status'], axis=1) # Features
y = df['Status'] # Target variable
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.2,
random_state=42)

2. Model Selection:
Choose suitable machine learning algorithms for your predictive task. Common
algorithms for classification tasks like predicting company registration status include:
*Logistic Regression
*Decision Trees
*Random Forests
Gradient Boosting (e.g., XGBoost, LightGBM)
Support Vector Machines
Neural Networks (Deep Learning)
3. Model Training:
Train multiple models on the training data using appropriate libraries (e.g., scikit-
learn, TensorFlow, PyTorch).
Tune hyperparameters using techniques like grid search or random search to
optimize model performance.
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier
from sklearn.metrics import accuracy_score
# Create and train a Random Forest Classifier
rf_classifier = RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators=100, random_state=42)
rf_classifier.fit(X_train, y_train)
# Make predictions on the test set
y_pred = rf_classifier.predict(X_test)
# Evaluate the model
accuracy = accuracy_score(y_test, y_pred)
print("Accuracy:", accuracy)
4. Model Evaluation:
Assess model performance using appropriate evaluation metrics for classification
tasks. Common metrics include accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, ROC-AUC, and
confusion matrices.
from sklearn.metrics import classification_report, confusion_matrix
print("Classification Report:\n", classification_report(y_test, y_pred))
print("Confusion Matrix:\n", confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred))
5. Feature Importance:
Analyze feature importance to understand which features are most influential in
making predictions. This can help refine the model and gain insights into the factors
affecting company registrations.
importances = rf_classifier.feature_importances_
feature_names = X_train.columns
feature_importance_df = pd.DataFrame({'Feature': feature_names, 'Importance':
importances})
feature_importance_df = feature_importance_df.sort_values(by='Importance',
ascending=False)
print("Feature Importance:\n", feature_importance_df)
6. Model Deployment :
If the model performs well, you can deploy it for real-time predictions or batch
predictions on new data.
7. Monitoring and Updating:
Continuously monitor the model's performance and update it as new data becomes
available or business conditions change.

6. Model Evaluation:
The choice of evaluation metrics depends on the specific goals and characteristics of
your predictive task, but common metrics for classification tasks include accuracy,
precision, recall, F1-score, and the confusion matrix. Here's how you can evaluate
your predictive models using these metrics:

1. Accuracy:
Accuracy is the most basic and commonly used metric for classification tasks. It
measures the proportion of correctly classified instances among all instances.
from sklearn.metrics import accuracy_score

# Calculate accuracy
accuracy = accuracy_score(y_true, y_pred)
print("Accuracy:", accuracy)
2. Precision:
Precision measures the proportion of true positive predictions among all positive
predictions. It is particularly relevant when false positives are costly or need to be
minimized.

from sklearn.metrics import precision_score

# Calculate precision
precision = precision_score(y_true, y_pred)
print("Precision:", precision)
3. Recall (Sensitivity):
Recall measures the proportion of true positive predictions among all actual positive
instances. It is essential when false negatives should be minimized.

from sklearn.metrics import recall_score


# Calculate recall
recall = recall_score(y_true, y_pred)
print("Recall:", recall)
4. F1-Score:
The F1-score is the harmonic mean of precision and recall. It balances the trade-off
between precision and recall and is especially useful when you want to strike a
balance between false positives and false negatives.

from sklearn.metrics import f1_score


# Calculate F1-score
f1 = f1_score(y_true, y_pred)
print("F1-Score:", f1)
5. Confusion Matrix:
A confusion matrix provides a detailed breakdown of the model's performance,
showing the number of true positives, true negatives, false positives, and false
negatives.
from sklearn.metrics import confusion_matrix

# Calculate confusion matrix


conf_matrix = confusion_matrix(y_true, y_pred)
print("Confusion Matrix:\n", conf_matrix)
6. ROC-AUC :
ROC-AUC is a metric used for binary classification tasks. It quantifies the model's
ability to distinguish between positive and negative classes, considering different
thresholds for classification.
from sklearn.metrics import roc_auc_score
# Calculate ROC-AUC score
roc_auc = roc_auc_score(y_true, y_pred)
print("ROC-AUC Score:", roc_auc)

conclusion
It's important to note that the choice of evaluation metrics should align with the
specific objectives of your predictive model. For example, if your primary goal is to
minimize false positives, you may focus on precision. If you want to minimize false
negatives, recall might be more critical. Additionally, consider the balance between
precision and recall that best suits your business or research needs, as the two
metrics often have an inverse relationship.You may also perform cross-validation to
assess the model's performance across multiple folds of your dataset to ensure the
results are robust and not influenced by a particular random split of data.

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