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A file photo shows bottles of Pepsi at a grocery store in Pasadena, California, July 11, 2017.
TREASURIES Yield Price
REUTERS/Mario Anzuoni
10-year 4.1521 -14 /32
2-year 4.4561 -2 /32
5-year 4.1154 -8 /32 PepsiCo is expected to post a rise in participate in a moderated question-
30-year 4.3550 -26 /32 fourth-quarter revenue, helped by and-answer session before the 14th
resilient demand for its sodas and Annual Tarrant County Transportation
FOREX Last % Chng snacks at a time when customers have Summit, in Hurst, Texas.
Euro/Dollar 1.0776 0.05 largely cut back on pricier items.
Dollar/Yen 149.29 0.75 Investors will look out for volume Mexico's national statistics agency is
Sterling/Dollar 1.2616 -0.07 growth, comments on pricing actions set to report industrial output likely
Dollar/CAD 1.3455 -0.06 and any disruption to business due to fell 0.1% in December after a 1.0% fall
USD/CNH (Offshore) 7.2145 0.03 the conflict in the Middle East. in November. On a year-on-year basis,
it is expected to rise 2.0%. Separately,
COMMODITIES ($) Price Chng % Chng Catalent, which helps manufacture Brazil's statistics agency IBGE is
Front Month Crude /barrel 76.47 2.61 3.53 Novo Nordisk's popular weight-loss expected to show service sector likely
Spot gold (NY/oz) 2033.39 -0.83 -0.04 drug Wegovy, is set to release its grew 0.7% in December, after rising
Copper U.S. (front month/lb) 3.71 -0.0245 -0.66
second-quarter results before markets 0.4% in the previous month. On a
CRB Index Total Return 314.42 3.74 1.21
open. Investors will focus on any yearly basis, services activity in the
S&P 500 Price $ Chng % Chng updates on its annual outlook, its country likely shrank 1.7%.
quarterly performance as well as how
GAINERS
Ralph Lauren Corp 171.83 24.69 16.78 the contract manufacturer is preparing LIVECHAT-REUTERS GLOBAL
Monolithic Power Systems Inc 737.07 91.66 14.20 for future bookings amid surging MARKETS FORUM
Walt Disney Co 110.53 11.39 11.49 demand for newer weight-loss drugs. Market Recap and Week ahead with
LOSERS Jamie McGeever, Reuters markets
PayPal Holdings Inc 56.13 -7.11 -11.24
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas columnist. (0900 ET/1400 GMT) To join
Snap-On Inc 266.03 -28.47 -9.67
Fleetcor Technologies Inc 265.10 -26.89 -9.21
President Lorie Logan is scheduled to the conversation, email here
Market Monitor
The benchmark S&P 500 index
advanced slightly but traded close to
the 5,000-point milestone, as investors
reacted to earnings reports, a roughly
in-line jobs report and remarks from
policymakers on interest rate cuts. "In
what appears to be a sleepy day there
are some things under the surface.
There's more of a risk-on appetite.
Semiconductors continue to show
leadership. We've had such
outperformance in megacaps, investors
are looking for other opportunities,
even in technology they're going down
the market cap scale,” said Keith
Lerner, co-chief investment officer at
Truist Advisory Services in Atlanta.
Shares of Walt Disney jumped 11.49%
after the media giant's profit beat Wall
Street estimates and it announced a $3
billion share repurchase plan, a 50%
dividend increase, a gaming Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, February 7.
investment and plans for an ESPN REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
streaming service in 2025. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average rose 0.13%
to 38,728.91, the S&P 500 gained The dollar rose after data on Brent futures closed up 3.28% at
0.06% to 4,997.91 and the Nasdaq unemployment benefits again pointed $81.81 a barrel. U.S. West Texas
Composite gained 0.24% to to a resilient U.S. labor market, Intermediate crude climbed 3.55% to
15,793.72. reinforcing the Federal Reserve's $76.48 per barrel.
message that interest rates are unlikely
Treasury yields rose as traders waited to be cut in the near term. The initial Gold prices slipped, hurt by a stronger
on key inflation data that may give claims data still points to a robust U.S. dollar and elevated bond yields as
further clues on when the Federal labor market that has kept the dollar hopes for an early interest rate cut from
Reserve is likely to begin cutting strong, said Thierry Wizman, global FX the U.S. Federal Reserve diminished,
interest rates. Traders are waiting for and interest rates strategist at while palladium extended its decline on
the consumer price index (CPI) for Macquarie in New York. The dollar a dim long-term demand outlook. "The
January on Tuesday, after data last index was last up 0.08% at 104.15. reality on the ground is that the U.S.
week showed that jobs gains were economy continues to be fairly firm and
much higher than expected last month Oil prices gained more than 3% on that means that the Fed has very little
while wages increased by the most in concerns of a broadening conflict in the latitude at this stage to start cutting
nearly two years. Ahead of that, the Middle East after Israel rejected a rates," said Bart Melek, head of
government on Friday will release CPI ceasefire offer from Hamas. Israeli commodity strategies at TD Securities.
revisions for the past calendar year. forces bombed the southern border city "For gold to rally, we have to start
These recalculated seasonal of Rafah after Prime Minister Benjamin seeing evidence that the economy
adjustments last year surprised traders Netanyahu rejected a proposal to end indeed is slowing down in a material
by showing that price pressures were the war in the Palestinian enclave. The way and that inflation is trending lower
greater in late 2022 than previously market is holding its breath on what the on a sustained basis," Melek added.
thought. The Treasury Department sold next potential fallout could be," said Spot gold edged 0.05% lower to
$25 billion in 30-year bonds at a high John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital $2,033.14 per ounce, while U.S. gold
yield of 4.360%. The bid-to-cover ratio LLC. Attacks on shipping by Iranian- futures fell 0.18% to $2,048 per ounce.
was 2.40. Benchmark 10-year notes backed Houthi rebels continued to Spot palladium shed 0.71% to
fell 14/32, yielding 4.1521%. Two-year disrupt global oil trading, he added. $888.298 per ounce.
notes lost 2/32, to yield 4.4561%.
2
Top News
Arm shares soar as AI-fueled boom
brightens growth prospects
Arm Holdings shares surged, powered
by strong forecasts on demand for its
technology to design chips for artificial
intelligence features. The surge would
put the British chip designer's market
value at more than $100 billion as
investors gobble up the stock as
another way to bet on AI. "Arm is riding
on the coattails of demand for Nvidia's
technology, particularly its datacentre
systems," said Susannah Streeter,
head of money and markets at
Hargreaves Lansdown. "The market is
starting to have a better handle on their
business model and how that aligns
with some of the bigger chip design
trends over the next few years," said
analyst Ben Bajarin from Creative
Strategies. "Today's ginormous jump in
valuation is an indication that investors
are not fearing the end of the IPO
lockup. Sentiment indicates that any
post-lockup sales could be well said she expects additional stress on company ended 16.78% higher at
absorbed by the market," said Michael banks and some financial losses from $171.83.
Ashley Schulman, chief investment weakness in the U.S. commercial real
officer at Running Point Capital. The estate market, but banking regulators Tapestry lifts 2024 profit forecast on
shares of the company ended 47.89% are working with banks to address China demand rebound, strong
higher at $113.89. these risks. margins
Tapestry raised its annual profit
NYCB gets third credit downgrade Ralph Lauren rides strong holiday forecast, betting on full-price sales of
as CRE exposure worries spill to demand, China rebound to post its premium handbags as well as early
Europe upbeat results signs of a demand recovery in key
New York Community Bancorp faced Ralph Lauren beat profit expectations market China. After a softer start to the
its third credit-rating cut while defaults for the 14th straight quarter, driven by year owing to cautious spending in
worries from exposure to the robust holiday demand for its pricey North America, the company saw its
beleaguered U.S. commercial real cashmere sweaters, coats and cocktail sales in China and Europe rising 19%
estate (CRE) took its toll on lenders in dresses in the U.S. and a strong and 11%, respectively, in the quarter.
Europe and Asia. Morningstar DBRS rebound in China, sending its shares Revenue at Tapestry's Coach brand
downgraded NYCB's credit rating due higher. Ralph Lauren's sales surged rose 6%, boosted by a near-doubling in
to "outsized" exposure to CRE. Rating more than 30% in China, building on sales of its Tabby handbags over last
agencies Fitch and Moody's have the 20% increase seen in the prior year. This offset declines of 6% and
already cut their ratings. Analysts have quarter. Net revenue at Ralph Lauren 4%, respectively, in its Kate Spade and
for months warned that CRE-tied climbed 6% to $1.93 billion in the fiscal Stuart Weitzman brands. Net sales
borrowers are at the risk of defaulting third quarter, beating LSEG rose to $2.08 billion in the second
on loans due to high interest rates and expectations of $1.87 billion, while quarter ended Dec. 31, edging past
low occupancies. The week-long sell- adjusted per-share profit of $4.17 analysts' average estimate of $2.06
off in NYCB shares has soured surpassed estimates of $3.54. It also billion. It now expects fiscal year 2024
sentiment on banks both in the U.S. raised annual gross margin growth adjusted earnings per share of $4.20 to
and abroad while stirring worries over outlook to roughly 140-180 basis points $4.25, compared to $4.10 to $4.15 per
global contagion from CRE exposure. in constant currency, compared to the share it forecast earlier. The shares of
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen 120-170 basis point increase it had the company ended 6.54% higher at
previously forecast. The shares of the $42.99.
3
Spirit Airlines calls speculation Permian Basin and a recent investors who had hoped the payments
about its future 'misguided acquisition. Fourth-quarter production firm's newly appointed CEO will
narrative' rose 8.2% to 1.9 million barrels of oil reignite its growth. Wall Street analysts
Spirit Airlines dismissed speculation equivalent per day (boepd), at the top said the outlook will weigh on shares in
about its future as a "misguided end of its previous forecast, also the near term but the new initiatives
narrative," saying the ultra-low-cost helped by a 79,000 boepd increase in would likely bear fruit in time and
carrier has boosted liquidity to survive Permian output. The production benefit the company. "It's clear that
even if its proposed merger with increase countered lower total average 2024 will be more of a transition year
JetBlue fails to close. The company realized price, which tumbled 18% to than we were expecting, with
said it is making changes to its network $58.21 per barrel of oil equivalent in previously targeted operating leverage
and "right sizing" labor costs to boost the quarter. Conoco also expects coming after 2024. We expect pressure
earnings. It expects to start generating higher adjusted operating costs of on the stock as estimates come down,"
cash in March and operate with a about $9 billion this year, up from $8.4 J.P.Morgan wrote in a note. "PayPal
positive cash flow from the second million in 2023. The company forecast continues to confront the twin
quarter. The company is also 2024 total capital expenditure in the challenges of market share and
assessing options for debt that is due range of $11.0 billion to $11.5 billion, in customers' loss in its branded PYPL
to mature in 2025 and 2026, it said. It line with last year's spending. It wallet business," analysts at Evercore
reported an adjusted loss of $1.36 per expects to return a minimum of $9 wrote in a note. Analysts at
share for the fourth quarter, compared billion to shareholders in 2024, Morningstar said management's
with analysts' average estimate of a compared with $11 billion last year. outlook suggests the road towards
loss of $1.46 per share, according to ConocoPhillips posted adjusted fourth- improving growth and profitability will
LSEG data. Separately, the Federal quarter earnings of $2.40 per share, be longer than expected. The shares of
Aviation Administration said it will topping analysts' average estimate by the company ended 11.24% down at
investigate the collision between two 31 cents, according to LSEG data. $56.13.
JetBlue Airways planes on the tarmac
at Boston Logan Airport that damaged Kellanova tops quarterly estimates Harley-Davidson forecasts 2024
both planes but caused no injuries. To on higher prices for snacks, frozen motorcycle revenue below estimates
read more, click here food Harley-Davidson forecast full-year
Kellanova topped Wall Street estimates revenue for its motorcycle segment to
Google rebrands Bard chatbot as for quarterly sales and profit, as be flat to down 9% from a year earlier,
Gemini, rolls out paid subscription demand for its ready-to-eat pop-tarts largely below analysts' expectations, as
Google renamed its Bard chatbot after and other convenience foods held a cutback in consumer spending
the new artificial intelligence that is steady in the face of increased prices. pressured demand for its iconic
powering it, called Gemini, and said Kellanova's product prices rose by vehicles in North America. "We
consumers can pay for better 8.1% in the reported quarter, pushing recognize that the overall macro
reasoning capabilities as it vies with its organic quarterly volumes down environment, including high interest
Microsoft to win subscriptions. U.S. 1.2%. The company reported net sales rates, add complexity to our customers'
customers can subscribe for $19.99 a of $3.2 billion in the fourth quarter. decisions to purchase discretionary
month to access Gemini Advanced, Analysts were expecting sales of $3.08 products," Harley-Davidson CEO
which includes a more powerful Ultra billion, according to LSEG data. Jochen Zeitz said on a call with
1.0 AI model, the company said. Analysts said the results were "better analysts. The company, however, beat
Subscribers will receive two terabytes than feared" after the company also profit expectations for the fourth
of cloud storage that typically cost maintained its 2024 outlook provided in quarter. The company's global
$9.99 monthly, and they will soon gain August. The company also announced motorcycle shipments fell 13% in the
access to Gemini in Gmail and restructuring plans for its North fourth quarter, compared to a year
Google's productivity suite. The American frozen supply chain network earlier due to dealers maintaining lower
company said Android users can opt and European cereal supply chain inventory amid slow demand. Retail
into Gemini as the default digital aide network to drive productivity. It reported sales globally were also down 11%, led
on their phones, accessing it through an adjusted profit of 78 cents per share by a 9% fall in North America. Analysts
an app, the power button or by saying for the quarter, surpassing analysts' expected a full-year revenue rise of
"Hey Google." expectations of 74 cents per share. 0.43% in the motorcycle segment. The
company's sales from motorcycles and
Oil producer ConocoPhillips beats PayPal tumbles as flat profit growth related products fell about 14% to $792
profit estimates, boosts output forecast in 2024 clouds strategy million in the quarter, missing analysts'
ConocoPhillips beat Wall Street shift expectations of $880.2 million. The
estimates for fourth-quarter profit, PayPal shares fell after it forecast a flat company's profit of 18 cents per share
helped by higher production in the U.S. adjusted profit for 2024, disappointing came in much above analysts
estimates of 4 cents.
4
Hindu women travel in a tuk-tuk with a child after casting their votes during a general election, in Tando Allahyar, Sindh, Pakistan, February 8.
REUTERS/Yasir Rajput
5
CANADA
Market Monitor COMING UP
Top News
Canada's housing bulls risk
upending Macklem's inflation battle
plans
After a year-long slump, Canada's
housing market is showing early signs
of recovery, and realtors say pent-up
demand, chronic shortage of homes, a
spike in rents and hopes of an interest
rate cut may fuel a rally in the sector
that could reignite inflation. With most
factors beyond the central bank's
control, the only lever the Bank of
Canada (BoC) can pull is through
monetary policy, although Governor Tiff
Macklem explicitly said on Tuesday
that interest rates alone can't "fix"
higher shelter cost, which is the biggest
contributor to inflation. Yet, bringing
down interest rates from a 22-year high
of 5% early could spark a frenzy in the
A file photo shows a for sale sign outside a home in Toronto, Ontario, December 13, 2021.
housing market that the central bank
REUTERS/Carlos Osorio
would want to avoid. Some buyers are
already coming out of hibernation. A
three-bedroom townhouse listed for now because demand is a lot higher the month and surged 37% from a year
C$828,000 last month in Newmarket, a than in the fall," Pasalis said. Pasalis, earlier, data showed on Tuesday.
thriving town outside Toronto, received like five out of six of the real estate Meanwhile, annual rents in December
40 offers and sold for C$1.06 million, brokers Reuters spoke to, sees a rose by 8.6% compared with a year
said John Pasalis, whose Realosophy rebound in the housing market. For ago, and January was already showing
Realty marketed the property. "All of instance, home sales in January in and signs of another uptick, further
these multiple offers ... are working around Toronto jumped almost 10% on supporting housing demand.
6
Canada's Bell to cut 4,800 jobs in doubled to C$1.19 billion, compared December, beating estimates of $2.88
latest round as ad dollars dry up with C$582.7 million a year earlier. Net billion, helped by higher deliveries and
Canadian media and telecom firm Bell premiums written also grew 4.8%, record revenue from aftermarket
will cut 4,800 positions, parent while gross premiums written also rose services. The company’s shares fell
company BCE said, in its largest 5% in the quarter. Shares of the 14.7% to C$44.45.
workforce restructuring in nearly 30 company sank 11.88% to end at
years to rein in costs in an uncertain C$1237.55. Shale producer Devon Energy in bid
economy. The company last year cut to acquire Enerplus -sources
1,300 jobs, shuttered six radio stations Thomson Reuters' adjusted EPS U.S. oil and gas producer Devon
and sold another three as revenues beats expectations, AI boosts Energy has approached Enerplus, a
dried up at its legacy phone and news results peer with a market value of C$4 billion,
business. "We continue to face a Thomson Reuters reported higher-than with an acquisition offer, people familiar
difficult economy and government and -expected quarterly profit, helped by with the matter said. There is no
regulatory decisions that undermine lower costs and demand for AI- certainty that Devon and Enerplus will
investment in our networks, fail to enhanced products for legal and other negotiate a deal, the sources said,
support our media business in a time of professional clients. The company requesting anonymity because the
crisis and fail to level the playing field reported adjusted fourth-quarter matter is confidential. Devon's
with global tech giants," BCE CEO earnings of 98 cents per share. Wall proposed acquisition terms could not
Mirko Bibic said in a statement. BCE, Street expected 90 cents per share, be learned. Devon declined comment.
which also reported its fourth-quarter according to LSEG data, and a year Enerplus did not immediately respond
results, said it plans to reduce costs by ago, the comparable figure was 75 to a request for a comment. "Any
over C$1 billion in 2024-25, including a cents a share. Revenue rose 3% to potential transaction for Enerplus would
minimum of C$500 million in 2024. $1.8 billion, largely in line with analyst need to reflect the quality of their
estimates, according to LSEG data. remaining core inventory in the
Muddy Waters shorts Canada's Generative AI, deployed across Bakken," said Mark Viviano, managing
Fairfax Financial, alleges asset value Thomson Reuters' product portfolio, is partner and lead portfolio manager at
manipulation expected to play a bigger role in results Kimmeridge Energy Management. The
Short seller Muddy Waters has placed this and upcoming years, executives activist investment firm is the second-
bets against the shares of Canadian said. The company said it expected to largest Enerplus shareholder with a
insurer Fairfax Financial alleging end its $1 billion share buyback by the 3.82% stake, per LSEG data.
manipulation in its asset values. Fairfax end of the second quarter and will
currently has a short interest of 0.65% increase its annualized dividend by Canada regulator orders Trans
of free float worth C$203.81 million, 10% to $2.16 per share. Mountain to address deficiencies
with short sellers having made over after B.C. flooding
C$21 million in paper profits so far Bombardier free cash flow forecast The Canada Energy Regulator (CER)
today, according to data from Ortex. short of expectations, shares fall has ordered the Trans Mountain
The Canadian company's insurance Canada's Bombardier forecast 2024 pipeline expansion project to address
business has struggled to remain free cash flow, a metric watched environmental deficiencies and
profitable even after the hurricane- closely by investors, that was below noncompliances found following
related catastrophes in 2017, Muddy analysts' estimates and its shares flooding near Abbotsford, British
Waters wrote in a research note. "This tumbled. The Montreal-based Columbia, the regulator said. CER
underperformance pressured Fairfax planemaker said it expected free cash officers conducted an inspection and
into becoming aggressive in pulling flow of $100 million to $400 million for found that Trans Mountain was not
accounting levers starting in 2018," the the year, falling well short of the $552 properly maintaining a watercourse
short seller said. "We find that Fairfax million, on average, expected by isolation, wildlife fencing, soil
has consistently manipulated asset analysts, according to LSEG data. The coverings, and dewatering pump and
values and income by engaging in company did forecast stronger 2024 sump locations, the CER said in a
often value destructive transactions to revenue as private jet deliveries rise. statement. The order was issued on
produce accounting gains," it added. The company reported a lower fourth- Jan. 31 and requires Trans Mountain to
Fairfax disagreed with the report, while quarter adjusted net income of $135 take a number of measures to address
assuring shareholders it "has prepared million, down from $205 million a year the problems, including investigating
its financial statements and reporting in earlier, amid lingering supply snags. the root cause and implementing a
accordance with all applicable On a per share basis, adjusted profit water management plan for that
accounting principles". In its most was $1.37, one cent below Wall Street section of pipeline. "We will continue to
recent third-quarter earnings report, expectations. Revenue rose 15.3% to follow up with the company to ensure it
Fairfax reported a profit that more than $3.06 billion in the quarter through complies with the Inspection Officer
Order.
7
WEALTH NEWS
ECONOMIC NEWS
US weekly jobless claims stay low
despite high-profile layoff
announcements
The number of Americans filing new claims
for unemployment benefits fell slightly more
than expected last week, pointing to
underlying labor market strength despite a
recent surge in announced layoffs, mostly in
the technology industry. Initial claims for
state unemployment benefits dropped 9,000
to a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the
week ended Feb. 3. Unadjusted claims
dropped 31,192 to 232,727 last week amid
sharp declines in filings in California, Ohio,
Oregon, New York and Pennsylvania. The
number of people receiving benefits after an
initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, fell
23,000 to 1.871 million during the week
ending Jan. 27, the claims report showed.
MONETARY POLICY
Fed's Barkin: Need more time before supporting rate cuts
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said the central bank has time to decide what’s next for
monetary policy while it waits for further assurance that inflation is indeed falling back to target.
DISNEY’S INVESTMENTS
Disney's investment in Epic Games signals the company has to 'be there'
In 2017, Epic Games was among a handful of companies selected to participate in Walt Disney's Accelerator incubator
program, where the game company's founder held ambitions of incorporating the entertainment giant's well-known characters
into his digital playground.
EXPANSION
Citizens fast-tracks wealth and private bank growth with new hires, office
Citizens Financial Group said it had hired two executives in senior positions to accelerate the growth of its wealth management
and private banking business after opening its first private banking office in Boston.
EMPLOYER DEALS
Employer deals earn BofA more than $10 billion in deposits, investments
Bank of America has brought in $10.5 billion in deposits and investments in the last four years after making deals with
companies to provide financial services to their employees, the lender said.
PROBE
Goldman Sachs faces probe over fees charged for futures trading- Bloomberg News
Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs is facing an investigation over fees it charges for futures trading, Bloomberg
News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
8
KEY RESULTS
Company Name* Quarter ET Smart Estimates EPS Estimates** Year Ago Rev Estimates (mln)
*Includes companies on S&P 500 index. **Estimates may be updated or revised; release times based on company guidance or past practice.
The Day Ahead - North America is compiled by Nachiket Tekawade and Haritha K P in Bengaluru.