Module 5 Eco Sem 3
Module 5 Eco Sem 3
Module 5 Eco Sem 3
The balance of payments (BOP) is the method countries use to monitor all international monetary
transactions in a specific period. The BOP is usually calculated every quarter and every calendar
year.
All trades conducted by both the private and public sectors are accounted for in the BOP to
determine how much money is going in and out of a country. If a country has received money, this
is known as a credit, and if a country has paid or given money, the transaction is counted as a debit.
Theoretically, the BOP should be zero, meaning that assets (credits) and liabilities (debits) should
balance, but in practice, this is rarely the case. Thus, the BOP can tell the observer if a country has
a deficit or a surplus and from which part of the economy the discrepancies are stemming.
The balance of payments (BOP) is the record of all international financial transactions made by
the residents of a country.
There are three main categories of the BOP: the current account, the capital account, and the
financial account.
The current account is used to mark the inflow and outflow of goods and services into a country.
Earnings on investments, both public and private, are also put into the current account.
The capital account is where all international capital transfers are recorded. This refers to the
acquisition or disposal of nonfinancial assets (for example, a physical asset such as land) and non-
produced assets, which are needed for production but have not been produced, such as a mine used
for the extraction of diamonds. The capital account is broken down into the monetary flows
branching from debt forgiveness, the transfer of goods, and financial assets by migrants leaving or
entering a country, the transfer of ownership on fixed assets (assets such as equipment used in the
production process to generate income), the transfer of funds received to the sale or acquisition of
fixed assets, gift and inheritance taxes, death levies, and, finally, uninsured damage to fixed assets.
In the financial account, international monetary flows related to investment in business, real estate,
bonds, and stocks are documented. Also included are government-owned assets, such as foreign
reserves, gold, special drawing rights (SDRs) held with the International Monetary Fund (IMF),
private assets held abroad, and direct foreign investment. Assets owned by foreigners, private and
official, are also recorded in the financial account.
The current account should be balanced versus the combined capital and financial accounts,
leaving the BOP at zero, but this rarely occurs.
We should also note that with fluctuating exchange rates, the change in the value of money can
add to BOP discrepancies.
If a country has a fixed asset abroad, this borrowed amount is marked as a capital account outflow.
However, the sale of that fixed asset would be considered a current account inflow (earnings from
investments). The current account deficit would thus be funded.
When a country has a current account deficit that is financed by the capital account, the country is
actually foregoing capital assets for more goods and services. If a country is borrowing money to
fund its current account deficit, this would appear as an inflow of foreign capital in the BOP.
Balance of Trade –
Balance of trade (BOT) is the difference between the value of a country's exports and the value of
a country's imports for a given period. Balance of trade is the largest component of a country's
balance of payments (BOP). Sometimes the balance of trade between a country's goods and the
balance of trade between its services are distinguished as two separate figures.
The balance of trade is also referred to as the trade balance, the international trade balance, the
commercial balance, or the net exports.
A country that imports more goods and services than it exports in terms of value has a trade deficit
while a country that exports more goods and services than it imports has a trade surplus.
Viewed alone, a favorable balance of trade is not sufficient to gauge the health of an economy. It
is important to consider the balance of trade with respect to other economic indicators, business
cycles, and other indicators.
The United States regularly runs a trade deficit, while China usually runs a large trade surplus.
The formula for calculating the BOT can be simplified as the total value of exports minus the total
value of its imports. Economists use the BOT to measure the relative strength of a country's
economy.
A positive balance of trade indicates that a country's producers have an active foreign market.
After producing enough goods to satisfy local demand, there is enough demand from customers
abroad to keep local producers busy. A negative balance of trade means that currency flows
outwards to pay for exports, indicating that the country may be overly reliant on foreign goods.
A favorable balance of trade, also known as a trade surplus, occurs when a country exports more
goods than it imports. This means that the country is earning more from its exports than it is
spending on its imports, and it is generally seen as a sign of economic strength. A trade surplus
can be a result of a country having a competitive advantage in the production and export of certain
goods, or it can be the result of a country's currency being relatively undervalued, making its
exports cheaper for foreign buyers.
On the other hand, an unfavorable balance of trade, also known as a trade deficit, occurs when a
country imports more goods than it exports. This means that the country is spending more on
imports than it is earning from exports, and it can be a cause for concern if it persists over a long
period of time. A trade deficit can be the result of a country having a comparative disadvantage in
the production of certain goods, or it can be the result of a country's currency being relatively
overvalued, making its imports cheaper and its exports more expensive.
Special Considerations
A country with a large trade deficit borrows money to pay for its goods and services, while a
country with a large trade surplus lends money to deficit countries. In some cases, the trade balance
may correlate to a country's political and economic stability because it reflects the amount of
foreign investment in that country.
A trade surplus or deficit is not always a viable indicator of an economy's health, and it must be
considered in the context of the business cycle and other economic indicators. For example, in a
recession, countries prefer to export more to create jobs and demand in the economy. In times of
economic expansion, countries prefer to import more to promote price competition, which limits
inflation.
1. Balance of payments deficit - When a country's total payments exceed its total receipts.
This means more money is flowing out of the country than coming in.
2. Balance of payments surplus - When a country's total receipts exceed its total payments.
Extra money is coming into the country than going out.
A BOP deficit puts pressure on a country's foreign exchange reserves and currency value. The
government may need to devalue the currency or raise interest rates to correct the deficit.
Balance of payments surplus-
This happens when a country's total receipts exceed its total payments. Extra money is coming into
the country than going out. A BOP surplus can occur due to the following.
1. Higher exports than imports, creating a trade surplus
2. More inward investment and loans than outward investment and loans
3. Lower interest payments on foreign debts
4. More tourism spending in the country by foreign tourists than spending abroad by
residents.
Though less problematic, a large BOP surplus can put appreciative pressure on the currency and
lead to an overheating economy. The government may need to pursue policies to redistribute
demand and reduce the surplus.
Foreign exchange-
Foreign exchange, or forex, is the conversion of one country's currency into another. In a free
economy, a country's currency is valued according to the laws of supply and demand. In other
words, a currency's value can be pegged to another country's currency, such as the U.S. dollar, or
even to a basket of currencies. A country's currency value may also be set by the country's
government.
However, many countries float their currencies freely against those of other countries, which keeps
them in constant fluctuation.
Factors Affecting Currency Value
The value of any particular currency is determined by market forces based on trade, investment,
tourism, and geopolitical risk.
Every time a tourist visits a country, for example, they must pay for goods and services using the
currency of the host country. Therefore, a tourist must exchange the currency of their home country
for the local currency. Currency exchange of this kind is one of the demand factors for a particular
currency.
Another important factor of demand occurs when a foreign company seeks to do business with
another in a specific country. Usually, the foreign company will have to pay in the local company's
currency.
At other times, it may be desirable for an investor from one country to invest in another, and that
investment would have to be made in the local currency as well.
All of these requirements produce a need for foreign exchange and contribute to the vast size of
foreign exchange markets.
How Inflation Affects Foreign Exchange Rates
Inflation can have a major effect on the value of a country's currency and its foreign exchange
rates with other currencies. While it is just one factor among many, inflation is more likely to have
a significant negative effect on a currency's value and foreign exchange rate.
A low rate of inflation does not guarantee a favorable exchange rate, but an extremely high
inflation rate is very likely to have a negative impact.
Inflation is also closely related to interest rates, which can influence exchange rates. The
interrelationship between interest rates and inflation is complex and often difficult for currency-
issuing countries to manage. Low interest rates spur consumer spending and economic growth,
and generally positive influences on currency value.
If consumer spending increases and demand grows to exceed supply, inflation may ensue, which
is not necessarily a bad outcome. However, low interest rates don't usually attract foreign
investment the way higher interest rates can. Higher interest rates attract foreign investment, which
is likely to increase demand for a country's currency.
Exchange rate-
An exchange rate is the rate at which one currency can be exchanged for another between nations
or economic zones. It is used to determine the value of various currencies in relation to each other
and is important in determining trade and capital flow dynamics.
The rates are impacted by two factors:
The domestic currency value
The foreign currency value
In addition, the rates can be quoted either directly or indirectly or with the use of cross-rates.
Direct Quotation vs. Indirect Quotation
Direct quotation of exchange rates involves quoting the price of a unit of foreign currency directly
in terms of the number of units of domestic currency that are exchanged.
Indirect quotation of exchange rates involves expressing the price of a domestic currency in terms
of the number of units of foreign currency that are exchanged.
Cross Rates
Cross rates are a method of quoting exchange rates in which various foreign currency exchange
rates are used to imply a domestic exchange rate, e.g., if you wanted to determine the EUR/USD
exchange rate but can’t access a direct quote. You could use the EUR/CAD exchange rate and the
CAD/USD exchange rate to infer the EUR/USD rate.
Importance of Exchange Rates
Exchange rates capture a lot of economic factors and variables and can fluctuate for various
reasons. Some of the reasons that exchange rates can fluctuate include:
1. Interest Rates
Changes in interest rates impact currency value and exchange rates. All else being equal, a higher
interest rate in a domestic country will increase the demand for a domestic currency since more
foreign investors will seek to invest at the higher interest rate, thereby investing foreign capital
into the domestic currency. However, in practice, it is balanced out by inflationary pressures.
2. Inflation Rates
Changes in inflation rates impact currency value and exchange rates. All else being equal, a higher
inflation rate in a domestic country will decrease the demand for the domestic currency since the
value of the currency depreciates relatively faster over time than other foreign currencies.
3. Government Debt
Government debt is the amount of debt owed by a federal government. It impacts currency value
and exchange rates since a country with higher debt is less likely to acquire foreign capital, which,
in turn, leads to inflation. It puts downward pressure on the domestic currency and decreases its
value in exchange rates.
4. Political Stability
The political state of a country influences the currency value and exchange rates since a country
with higher political turmoil is less likely to attract foreign investors. Political instability fosters
more risk for investors, as they are unsure of whether they will see their investments protected via
fair market practices or a strong legal system.
5. Export or Import Activities
A country’s net exports or imports impact currency value and exchange rates. A domestic country
that exports more goods than it imports will experience a higher demand for its currency, and
thereby, will see its exchange rate increase relative to other foreign currencies.
6. Recession
A country that experiences a recession is less attractive to foreign investors. Firstly, it is due to the
increased risk of investing in an economy with a poor economic outlook. Secondly, when a
recession occurs, interest rates typically decrease, which decreases the foreign demand for
domestic currency.
7. Speculation
If a country’s currency is expected to rise for any reason, investors will demand more of the
currency to realize a profit based on that expectation. It can cause immediate demand increases for
domestic currency relative to foreign currencies.
8. Special Considerations
There are other special considerations when exchange rates are determined. For example, various
“safe-haven” currencies are believed to be stable and attract foreign capital when the global
economic outlook is uncertain. It includes currencies such as the U.S. dollar, euro, Japanese yen,
and Swiss franc.
Another special consideration for the U.S. dollar is that it is the global Federal Reserve currency,
which increases the baseline demand for the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies.
Currency appreciation
Currency appreciation refers to the increase in value of one currency relative to another in the forex
markets.
Reasons of currency appreciation
In a floating rate exchange system, the value of a currency constantly changes based on supply and
demand in the forex market. This change allows traders and firms to increase or decrease their
holdings and profit over them.
Thus, a currency appreciates when the value of one goes up in comparison to the other.
Appreciation is directly linked to demand. If the value appreciates (or goes up), demand for the
currency also rises.
Effects of currency appreciation
Export costs rise: If the Indian Rupee (INR) appreciates, foreigners will find Indian goods more
expensive because they have to spend more for those goods in INR. That means that with the
higher price, the number of Indian goods being exported will likely drop. This eventually leads to
a reduction in gross domestic product (GDP).
Cheaper imports: If Indian goods become more expensive on the foreign market; foreign goods,
or imports, will become cheaper in India. The length to which 1 INR will stretch will go further,
meaning one can buy more goods imported from abroad. That leads to a benefit of lower prices,
leading to lower overall inflation.
Currency depreciation
Currency depreciation is a fall in the value of a currency in a floating exchange rate system.
Currency depreciation in one country can spread to other countries.
Reasons of currency depreciation
Economic fundamentals: Countries with weak economic fundamentals like burgeoning current
account deficits and high rates of inflation can lead to currency depreciation.
Interest rate differentials: Easy monetary policy and high rates of inflation are two of the leading
cause of currency depreciation. When interest rates are low, investors, both domestic and foreign,
will chase the highest yield. Expected interest rate differentials can also lead to currency
depreciation. Central banks will increase interest rates to combat inflation as too much inflation
can lead to currency depreciation.
Political instability: In both, unstable policy regime and instable government, investors are
suspicious about the market forces.
Effects of currency depreciation
Improves export competitiveness: Currency depreciation, if orderly and gradual, improves a
nation’s export competitiveness and may improve its trade deficit over time.
May lead to pulling of foreign investment: An abrupt and sizable currency depreciation may scare
foreign investors who fear the currency may fall further, leading them to pull portfolio investments
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Convertibility –
Currency convertibility refers to how liquid a nation's currency is in terms of exchanging with
other global currencies.
A convertible currency can be easily traded on forex markets with little to no restrictions.
A convertible currency (e.g., U.S. dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, and the British pound) is seen as a
reliable store of value, meaning an investor will have no trouble buying and selling the currency.
Non-convertible and blocked currencies (e.g. Cuban Pesos or North Korean Won) are not easily
exchanged for other monies and are only used for domestic exchange with their respective borders.
Free Trade vs. Protection –
Free trade and protectionism represent two opposing approaches to international trade.
Free trade emphasizes the removal of trade barriers, promoting economic efficiency and market
access.
Protectionism aims to protect domestic industries but can lead to higher prices and reduced
consumer choice.
The balance between free trade and protectionism remains a subject of ongoing policy discussions,
with countries adopting varying degrees of openness and protectionism based on their economic
priorities and circumstances.
Free Trade
Free trade promotes the unrestricted flow of goods and services across borders.
Its proponents argue that removing barriers to trade leads to economic growth, efficiency, and
consumer benefits.
Free trade agreements, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the
Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), aim to reduce
trade barriers and promote market access.
According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the average applied tariff rate for industrial
goods globally was 6.7% in 2019. Free trade agreements have contributed to the reduction of tariff
barriers, facilitating trade between participating countries.
Protectionism
Protectionism, on the other hand, seeks to shield domestic industries from foreign competition by
imposing trade barriers. This can take the form of tariffs, which are taxes on imported goods, or
non-tariff measures such as quotas, subsidies, and local content requirements.
Protectionist policies are often implemented to safeguard domestic employment, industries, and
national security interests.
Figures vary depending on the specific policies implemented by countries. For instance, the U.S.
International Trade Commission reported that the United States imposed an average tariff rate of
2.0% on imported goods in 2020. However, the use of non-tariff measures and subsidies can have
a significant impact on trade flows.
Economic Implications
The economic implications of free trade and protectionism are subject to ongoing debates.
Proponents of free trade argue that it promotes competition, efficiency, and innovation, leading to
lower prices and a wider variety of goods for consumers. It also allows countries to specialize in
industries where they have a comparative advantage, leading to increased productivity and
economic growth.
Protectionism, on the other hand, aims to protect domestic industries and jobs. Advocates argue
that it shields domestic producers from unfair competition, prevents dumping of goods at
artificially low prices, and supports strategic industries. However, critics argue that protectionist
measures can lead to higher prices, reduced consumer choice, and inefficiencies in resource
allocation.
Trade War and Global Trade Tensions
In recent years, there has been a rise in trade tensions and the use of protectionist measures, leading
to trade conflicts between major economies. The trade dispute between the United States and
China, characterized by tit-for-tat tariffs, exemplifies these tensions. According to the International
Monetary Fund (IMF), the average tariff imposed by the United States on Chinese imports
increased from 3.1% in 2017 to 19.3% in 2019.
Absolute Advantage
The differentiation between the varying abilities of companies and nations to produce goods
efficiently is the basis for the concept of absolute advantage. As such, absolute advantage looks at
the efficiency of producing a single product. It also looks at how to produce goods and services at
a lower cost by using fewer inputs during the production process when compared to the
competition.
This analysis helps countries avoid producing goods and services that would yield little to no
demand, which would ultimately lead to losses.
A country’s absolute advantage (or disadvantage) in a particular industry can play an important
role in the types of products it chooses to produce. Some of the factors that can lead an entity to
absolute advantage include:
1. Lower labor costs
2. Access to an abundant supply of (natural) resources
3. A larger pool of available capital
As an example, if Japan and Italy can both produce automobiles, but Italy can produce sports cars
of a higher quality and at a faster rate with greater profit, then Italy is said to have an absolute
advantage in that particular industry.
On the other hand, Japan may be better served to devote limited resources and labor to other types
of vehicles (such as electric cars) or another industry altogether. This may help the country enjoy
an absolute advantage rather than trying to compete with Italy's efficiency.
Comparative Advantage
Comparative advantage takes a more holistic view of production. In this case, the perspective lies
in the fact that a country or business has the resources to produce a variety of goods and services
rather than focus on just one product.
The opportunity cost of a given option is equal to the forfeited benefits that could have been
achieved by choosing an available alternative in comparison. In general, when the profit from two
products is identified, analysts would calculate the opportunity cost of choosing one option over
the other.
For example, let's assume that China has enough resources to produce either smartphones or
computers such that China can produce either 10 computers or 10 smartphones. Computers
generate a higher profit. The opportunity cost is the difference in value lost from producing a
smartphone rather than a computer. If China earns $100 for a computer and $50 for a smartphone
then the opportunity cost is $50. If China has to choose between producing computers over
smartphones it will probably select computers because the chance of profit is higher.