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Whats Probability

The probability of an event is the ratio of the number of favorable cases to the total number of possible cases. Pascal made important contributions to probability theory through his correspondence with Fermat on problems like the Gambler's Ruin and Problem of Points. Probability has many applications including weather forecasting, election results, business, insurance, and medicine. Theoretical probability is based on reasoning about expected outcomes, while experimental probability is based on results from experiments.

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23 views5 pages

Whats Probability

The probability of an event is the ratio of the number of favorable cases to the total number of possible cases. Pascal made important contributions to probability theory through his correspondence with Fermat on problems like the Gambler's Ruin and Problem of Points. Probability has many applications including weather forecasting, election results, business, insurance, and medicine. Theoretical probability is based on reasoning about expected outcomes, while experimental probability is based on results from experiments.

Uploaded by

Babita Ray
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Whats probability

The probability of an event is the ratio of the number of cases favorable to it, to the number of all
cases possible when nothing leads us to expect that any one of these cases should occur more than
any other, which renders them, for us, equally possible.

The probability (P) that an event will happen is:

P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B)

P(A’) + P(A) = 1

P(A∩B) = 0

P(A∩B) = P(A) ⋅ P(B)

P(A | B) = P(A∩B) / P(B)(conditional probability

P(A | B) = P(B | A) ⋅ P(A) / P(B)

He is best known, however, for Pascal’s Triangle, a convenient tabular presentation of


binomial co-efficients, where each number is the sum of the two numbers directly above it. A
binomial is a simple type of algebraic expression which has just two terms operated on only by
addition, subtraction, multiplication and positive whole-number exponents, such as (x + y)2. The
co-efficients produced when a binomial is expanded form a symmetrical triangle
Pascal also made the conceptual leap to use the Triangle to help solve problems in probability
theory. In fact, it was through his collaboration and correspondence with his French
contemporary Pierre de Fermat and the Dutchman Christiaan Huygens on the subject that the
mathematical theory of probability was born. Before Pascal, there was no actual theory of
probability – notwithstanding Gerolamo Cardano’s early exposition in the 16th Century –
merely an understanding (of sorts) of how to compute “chances” in dice and card games by
counting equally probable outcomes. Some apparently quite elementary problems in probability
had eluded some of the best mathematicians, or given rise to incorrect solutions.

It fell to Pascal (with Fermat‘s help) to bring together the separate threads of prior
knowledge (including Cardano‘s early work) and to introduce entirely new mathematical
techniques for the solution of problems that had hitherto resisted solution. Two such
intransigent problems which Pascal and Fermat applied themselves to were
the Gambler’s Ruin (determining the chances of winning for each of two men playing a
particular dice game with very specific rules) and the Problem of Points (determining
how a game’s winnings should be divided between two equally skilled players if the
game was ended prematurely).

The probability line is a line that shows probabilities and how these
probabilities relate to each other.

Since the probability of an event is a number from 0 to 1, we can use the


probability line below to show the possible ranges of probability values.

The line shows that if an event is certain or sure to happen, it will have
a probability of 1.

For example, the probability that it will rain in the state of Florida at least once
in a specific year is 1.

The number line shows that if an event will never happen or cannot
happen, it will have a probability of 0.

What are the Applications of Probability?


The measurement of the possibility of an event to occur is called probability. There are many
applications associated with probability. Some of the real life applications of probability are
listed below:

Application of Probability in Weather Forecast


Meteorologists collect the database related to weather and its changes worldwide by using
different instruments and tools. They collect the weather information worldwide to estimate
the temperature changes around the world and the weather conditions for a particular hour,
day, week, month and year.
Thus, a probability forecast assesses how weather changes in terms of percentage and
recording the risks associated with the weather or temperature changes to alert the people,
especially in the coastal areas.

Application of Probability in Election Results


In our country, elections play a vital role in our politics. Political analysts use exit polls to
measure the probability of winning or losing the candidate or parties in the elections. The
probability technique is used to predict the results of voting after the election.

Application of Probability in Business


The marketing persons or salespersons promote the products to increase sales. They use the
probability technique to check how much the particular product is going well in the market or
not. The probability technique helps to forecast the business in future.

Application of Probability in Insurance


Insurance companies provide insurance policies or premiums based on the future forecast to
the persons, vehicles etc. Insurance companies generally use theoretical probability or theory
of probability to frame any particular policy and complete the policy at the premium rate.
Theoretical probability is mainly based on the possible chances of an event, that is, something
to happen.

Application of Probability in Medicines


The doctors give medicines to the patients to recover from the illness and build immunity
power also. Doctors prefer the probability technique to check the risk factor of the patient.
While giving medicines, doctors also use the concept of probability to estimate how far it is
going to cure and how far it takes to recover etc.

Theoretical and Experimental Probability

What Is Theoretical Probability?


Theoretical probability is based on what is expected to happen, or a theory,
using reasoning. It is based on knowledge and mathematics. An experiment is
not conducted to find theoretical probability.
Calculate Theoretical Probability
The theoretical probability of an event is calculated by taking the number of
favorable outcomes divided by the total number of possible outcomes.

P(E)=number of favorable outcomestotal number of outcomesP(E)=number of favorable outco


mestotal number of outcomes
It can be written as a ratio or divided and turned into a decimal.

Theoretical Probability Example

Bag of colored chips

There is a bag containing 10 total colored chips. Three of the chips are red, two
are blue, three are green, and two are yellow. To calculate the theoretical
probability of randomly drawing a red chip, take the number of favorable
outcomes (three red chips) divided by the total number of outcomes (ten total
chips). The theoretical probability of randomly drawing a red chip is 3/10 or 0.3.

What is Experimental Probability?


Experimental probability is based on what actually occurs. It depends on the
results of several experiments or trials.

Calculate Experimental Probability


The experimental probability of an event is calculated by simulating the event
several times, recording the results, and turning the results into a ratio or
decimal.

P(E)=number of times event occurstotal number of trialsP(E)=number of times event occur


stotal number of trials

Experimental Probability Example


A quarter

Ten trials are conducted:

trial 1: heads

trial 2: heads

trial 3: tails

trial 4: heads

trial 5: tails

trial 6: tails

trial 7: tails

trial 8: heads

trial 9: tails

trial 10: tails

Out of 10 trials, tails were flipped 6 times. That means the experimental
probability of flipping tails is 610610 or 0.6. In this case, only 10 trials were
conducted. The more trials that are conducted, the closer the experimental
probability will get to the theoretical probability. In this case, the theoretical
probability would be 0.5. The experimental probability was 0.6. Chances are, if
100 or 1,000 trials were conducted instead of 10, the experimental probability
would be closer to 0.5.

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