Trading Predictions Based On Neural Networks
Trading Predictions Based On Neural Networks
* Correspondence [email protected];
Abstract: The prediction of stock and foreign exchange (Forex) had always been a hot and profitable
area of study. Deep learning application had proven to yields better accuracy and return in the field
of financial prediction and forecasting. In this survey we selected papers from the DBLP database
for comparison and analysis. We classified papers according to different deep learning methods,
which included: Convolutional neural network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Deep
neural network (DNN), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Reinforcement Learning, and other deep
learning methods such as HAN, NLP, and Wavenet. Furthermore, this paper reviewed the dataset,
variable, model, and results of each article. The survey presented the results through the most used
performance metrics: RMSE, MAPE, MAE, MSE, accuracy, Sharpe ratio, and return rate. We identi-
fied that recent models that combined LSTM with other methods, for example, DNN, are widely
researched. Reinforcement learning and other deep learning method yielded great returns and per-
formances. We conclude that in recent years the trend of using deep-learning based method for
financial modeling is exponentially rising.
of deep learning to both Forex and the stock market and explore the impact of different
deep learning methods on their price trend prediction accuracy.
The continuous development in the AI field leads to the wide use of deep learning
techniques in many research fields and practical scenarios. Applications include natural
language processing, image recognition, medical predictions, and more. The neural net-
works used in these applications have also developed and improved due to the rise of
deep learning. For example, reinforcement learning has gained popularity since AlphaGo
defeated the best chess player at the time using it, and reinforcement learning has been
implemented in the financial prediction field since then [76]. These technological break-
throughs have given the stock and Forex prediction models a solid foundation to start and
a greater room to improve.
The highly complex nonlinear relationship of deep learning can fully describe the
complex characteristics of the influencing factors. Besides, many other fields have verified
the accuracy of a deep learning model for prediction accuracy, such as image classifica-
tion, gene analysis. Research results are also obtained for Time-series data analysis and
prediction with a deep learning algorithm; for example, deep learning is used to predict
the offline store traffic [3]. Overall, deep learning models have excellent performance in
other research fields. Therefore, it is feasible to predict stock and Forex trends with deep
learning.
Financial researchers around the world have been studying and analysing the
changes in the stock and Forex market. The broadening application of artificial intelli-
gence has led to an increasing number of investors using deep learning model to predict
and study the stock and Forex price. It has been proven that the fluctuation of stock and
Forex price could be predicted [4]. Different from the traditional statistical and economet-
ric models, deep learning can describe complex influencing factors.
Therefore, this paper will investigate the different effects of different deep learning
methods on stock and Forex forecasting according to the existing published papers. This
survey will analyse each paper from the following aspects: 1. What is the dataset of this
paper; 2.What is the variable of this paper;3. What kind of deep learning model had been
adopted; 4. What is the result of the prediction model?
The structure of this paper will be as follows: firstly, the introduction of Forex and
stock combined with deep learning; secondly, the criteria and research methods of the
article selected by the survey, thirdly, the impact and analysis of different deep learning
methods on stocks and Forex prediction; fourthly, the discussion and analysis of the above
methods; finally, the conclusion of the whole paper.
build a timing-selection model and ultimately used to complete the construction of the
timing-selection strategy.
strategy through the feedback of the result information, for this reason, the algorithm
would learn: in which state to take which step would have the most beneficial result.
Therefore, reinforcement learning could learn the best timing trading action (select-
ing the best price, trading duration, and order size) according to the market response. It
can view the contextual information (price, news, public opinion, interest rate, fees, trad-
ing action, returns, losses, etc.) of the transaction as an environment of reinforcement
learning. Gains or losses could be thought as the reward for learning, trading actions as
actions, and factors as states or observations to realise the prediction of the stock and Forex
trend.
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
CNN LSTM DNN RNN Reinforcement learning Other deep learning methods
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
CNN LSTM DNN RNN Reinforcement learning Other deep learning methods
CNN LSTM DNN RNN Reinforcement learning Other deep learning methods
11%
21%
9%
6%
10%
43%
CNN LSTM DNN RNN Reinforcement learning Other deep learning methods
12%
19%
12%
7%
10%
40%
4. Results
4.1 Papers Descriptions
4.1.1 CNN
Appl. Syst. Innov. 2021, 4, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 of 34
17 articles that used CNN technology for the stock and Forex prediction were briefly
described below, and as shown in the table. Table 2 shows the author, variables, dataset,
and model of all the papers mentioned.
Table 2 The overall information for the papers which used the CNN model
Reference No. Author Dataset Variables Model
[8] Maqsood, H. 1.Top 4 perform- 1.Open price, CNN
ing companies of high price, low price,
US, Hong AdjClose price, Volume,
Kong, Turkey, and and Close price
Pakistan 2.sentiment(Positive, neu-
2.Twitter dataset tral and negative senti-
ment).
Maqsood, H. proposed a CNN model that made use of the price and sentiment anal-
ysis as input and compared the proposed model with the Linear Regression and SVM. He
concluded that not all the significant events have a serious impact on stock exchange pre-
diction. However, more important local events could affect the performance of prediction
algorithms [8].
Patil, P. proposed a new network using graph theory and CNN, which leveraged
Spatio-temporal relationship information between different stocks by modelling the stock
market as a complex network. Meanwhile, the model used both stock indicators and fi-
nancial news as input [9].
Sim, HS proposed a CNN network that using the 9 technical indicators (Close Price,
SMA, EMA, ROC, MACD, Fast%K, Slow%D, Upper Band, Lower Band) to verify the ap-
plicability of the CNN method in the stock market. And he concluded that the use of tech-
nical indicators in stock price forecasting by CNN has no positive effect [10].
Hoseinzade, E. proposed two models: 2D-CNN and 3D-CNN using 82 different tech-
nical indicators. And These two structures could improve the predictive performance of
the baseline algorithm by about 3% to 11% [11].
Eapen, J.proposed a model that had multiple pipelines of CNN and bi-directional
LSTM units. And it could improve prediction performance by 9% using a single pipeline
deep learning model and by over a factor of six using support vector machine regressor
model on S&P 500 grand challenge dataset [12].
Yang, H.m, proposed a multi-indicator feature selection for stock index prediction
based on a multichannel CNN structure without sub-sampling, named MI-CNN frame-
work. In this method, candidate indicators were selected by the maximal information co-
efficient feature selection (MICFS) approach, to ensure the correlation with stock move-
ments whilst reducing redundancy between different indicators [13].
Cai, S. proposed the CNN and LSTM forecasting system with financial news and
historical data of the stock market. It had generated seven prediction models. According
to the ensemble learning method, the seven models are constructed into one ensemble
model to obtain an aggregated model. Unfortunately, all models had a lower prediction
accuracy [14].
Oncharoen, P. proposed a new framework to train a DNN for stock market predic-
tion. A new loss function was developed by adding a risk-reward function, which was
derived from the trading simulation results [15].
Appl. Syst. Innov. 2021, 4, x FOR PEER REVIEW 10 of 34
Liu, Y. proposed to incorporate a joint model using the TransE model for representa-
tion learning and a CNN, which extracted features from financial news articles. And then
he combined the model with LSTM to predict the price movement. The model could im-
prove the accuracy of text feature extraction while reducing the sparseness of news head-
lines [16].
Selvin, S. used CNN, LSTM, and RNN architectures to forecast the price of NSE listed
companies and compares their performance. The final results showed that CNN is the best
architecture to predict the price of the stock because it could identify the trend of the di-
rectional change [17].
Liu, S.proposed a CNN-LSTM model, and the model performed basic Momentum
strategy and Benchmark model whose return rates were 0.882 and 1.136 respectively. The
CNN part could extract useful features even from low signal-to-noise time-series data,
and the LSTM part could predict future stock prices with high accuracy, then the predict-
ing outcomes were used as timing signals [18].
Gudelek, M.U. proposed a 2D-CNN model. This model adopted a sliding window
approach then generated images by taking snapshots that are bounded by the window
over a daily period. The model could predict the next day's prices with 72% accuracy and
end up with 5:1 of our initial capital [19].
Ding, X. proposed a deep learning method for the event-driven stock market predic-
tion. Firstly, events were extracted from news text and represented as dense vectors,
trained using a novel neural tensor Network(NTN). Secondly, CNN was used to model
both short-term and long-term influences of events on stock price movements [20].
Zhao, Y. proposed a Wavelet Denoised-ResNet CNN for Forex exchange rate predic-
tion. The technical indicators were treated as an image matrix, the image matrix was first
denoised using Wavelet method, then processed by ResNet CNN, and lastly, LightGBM
was used to replace the softmax layer to output a prediction. [71]
Chen, S. and He, H. proposed a CNN model with a novel architecture, where it gen-
erated better results than benchmark RNN model. [76]
Ugur Gudelek, M proposed a CNN model where financial data is taken as a image,
then using CNN to predict the desired trading action, the model yielded reasonable re-
sults. [77]
Chen, Jou-Fan proposed a novel CNN model which utilized the power of Gramian
Angular Field, the results produced were average, but it is a interesting research direction.
[78]
Wen, M proposed a CNN model which relied on the reconstructed of time series, it
turned the time series into segment, then CNN was used to classify each segment. The
model generated good results.[90]
4.1.2 RNN
5 articles that used RNN technology for the stock and Forex prediction were briefly
described below, and as shown in the table. Table 3 showed the author, variables, dataset,
and model of all the papers mentioned above.
Table 3 The overall information for the papers which used RNN model
Reference no. Author Dataset Variables Model
[53] Ni, L. EURUSD,AU- open price, close C-RNN
DUSD,XAU- price,
USD,GBPJPY,EUR- highest price and
JPY,GBPUSD,USD lowest price
CHF,USDJPY and
USDCAD
[54] Li, C. CSI300,CSI200and Open price, high Multi-task RNN with
CSI500 price, low price, MRFs
close price, Volume,
and amount.
[55] Chen, W HS300 1.Technical features: RNN-Boost
open price, high
price, low price,
Appl. Syst. Innov. 2021, 4, x FOR PEER REVIEW 11 of 34
Ni, L. proposed a CRNN model to predict the price of 9 kinds of forex pair. The results showed
that the proposed model performed much better than the LSTM model and the CNN model[53].
Li, C. proposed a Multi-task RNN model with MRFs. The MMPL is proposed to automati-
cally extract diversified and complementary features from individual stock price sequences which
means there is no need for the technical indicators. Features learned by MMPL were passed to a
binary MRF with a weighted lower linear envelope energy function to utilise intra-clique higher-
order consistency between stocks[54].
Chen, W proposed an RNN-Boost model that made use of the technical indicators and senti-
ment features, and Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) features to predict the price of stocks. Its
results showed that the proposed model outperformed the single-RNN model[55].
Zhang, R. proposed a Deep and Wide Neural Networks (DWNN) model where CNN's con-
volution layer was added to the RNN's hidden state transfer process. The results showed that the
DWNN model could reduce the prediction mean squared error by 30% compared with the general
RNN model[56].
Zeng. Z proposed a novel Attention-based RNN (ARNN) where wavelet denoised input was
passed to ARNN. The forecast was calculated using the ARIMA and the output of ARNN model.
[73]
4.1.3 LSTM
27 articles that used LSTM technology for the stock and Forex prediction were briefly
described below, and as shown in the table. Table 4 showed the author, variables, dataset,
and model of all the papers mentioned.
Table 4 The overall information for the papers which used LSTM model
# Author Dataset Variables Model
[21] Nikou, M. iShares MSCI United Close price LSTM
Kingdom
[22] Fazeli, A. S&P 500 Open price, high LSTM
price, low price,
close price, adjusted
close price, Volume,
volatility,
Appl. Syst. Innov. 2021, 4, x FOR PEER REVIEW 12 of 34
Williams %R and
RSI
[23] Xu, Y. Microsoft (MSFT)、 Open price, high Attention-based
PO logistics (XPO) price, low price, LSTM
and AMD Daily close
stock price data are price,AD,ADX,EMA
collected from Yahoo ,KAMA,MA,MACD,
Finance from 11 in- RSI,SAR,AMA .etc
dustries and finance tweet
Finance tweets from sentiment
a social media com-
pany StockTwits
[24] Lakshminarayanan, Dow Jones Industrial Close price, moving LSTM
S.K. Average (DJIA) average, Crud oil
price, gold price
[25] Rana, M. Spanish stock com- Close price LSTM
pany Acciona
[26] Naik, N. CIPLA stock, ITC Close price RNN with LSTM
stock,
TCS stock, ONGC
stock, and Nifty in-
dex
[27] Nguyen, D.H.D NASDAQ stock mar- Trade volume, open, Dynamic LSTM
ket:GE,AAPL,SNP close, high, low, and
and FB adjusted close prices
[28] Lai, C.Y. Foxconn, Quanta, KD, OBV, MACD, LSTM
Formosa RSI, and the average
Taiwan Cement and of the previous five
Taiwan Semiconduc- days stock market in-
tor formation (open,
high, low, Volume,
close)
[29] Hossain, M.A. S&P500 Open price, close LSTM with GRU
price,
volume
[30] Baek, Y. KOSPI200 and Close price LSTM with preven-
S&P500 tion module, predic-
tion module
[31] Kim, H.Y. KOSPI 200 Close price GEW-LSTM
[32] Li, H. CSI-300 Open price Attention-based
Multi-Input LSTM
[33] Cheng, L.-C. Data from Taiwan Open price, close Attention-based
Stock Exchange Cor- price, low price, high LSTM
poration((Not given price, Volume, KD,
specific data) MA, RSV, etc.
[34] Shah, D. Tech Mahindra Close price LSTM
(NSE: TECHM)
BSESensex
[35] Lin, B.-S. Taiwan Stock Ex- Trade volume, trans- LSTM
change Corporation action, open price,
(TWSE) highest price, lowest
price, close price,
KD, RSI, and Bol-
linger
Bands(BBands)
[36] Skehin, T. Facebook Inc. (FB), Close price ARIMA-LSTM-
Apple Inc. (AAPL), Wavelet
Amazon.com Inc
(AMZN), Netflix
Inc.
(NFLX) and Alpha-
bet Inc. (GOOG) in
NASDAQ of S&P
500
[37] Zhang, X. China's A-share mar- The open price, close RNN with LSTM
ket price, highest price,
lowest price, and
trading volume and
11 indicators
[38] Achkar, R. Facebook Close price RNN with LSTM
stocks, Google
stocks, and Bitcoin
Appl. Syst. Innov. 2021, 4, x FOR PEER REVIEW 13 of 34
Nikou, M. proposed an LSTM model and compared it with the ANN model, SVR
model, and RF model. The results showed that the LSTM model performed better in the
prediction of the close price of iShares MSCI United Kingdom than the other models men-
tioned in the paper[21].
Appl. Syst. Innov. 2021, 4, x FOR PEER REVIEW 14 of 34
Fazeli, A. proposed an LSTM model; his result showed an improve through using
LeakyReLU. MSE came below 0.1. Whilst compared with the ReLU function; the MSE
went well above 0.2. He examined the effect of RSI, Williams %R, and volatility on the loss
of the model. It was shown that the model's loss was reduced by using only RSI, which
contributed to the performance of the model[22].
Xu, Y. proposed an attention-based LSTM model that performs better than the regu-
lar LSTM. It was found that finance tweets that were posted from market closure to market
open the next day had more predictive power on the next day's stock movement. The
weighted sentiment on the max follower on StockTwits also performed much better than
other methods[23].
Lakshminarayanan, S.K. proposed an LSTM model combined with Crud oil price,
gold price, and moving average, which performed much better than the LSTM model
without them and the SVM model. It showed that the Crud oil and gold price had some
impact on the stock price prediction[24].
Rana, M. proposed an LSTM model that outperformed the LR and SVR model. He
also compared the different activation functions with different optimisers and concluded
that the tanh activation with the adam algorithm performs best with the accuracy of
98.49%[25].
Naik, N. proposed an RNN with the LSTM model. The model had the ability to keep
the memory of historical stock returns in order to forecast future stock return output. It
was worth noting that the recent stock information rather than old related stock infor-
mation was stored and used. The network also outperformed the Feed Forward ANN
model[26].
Lai, C.Y. proposed a Dynamic LSTM model The results showed that stock prediction
accuracy based on MAE, MAPE, RMSE, and MSE obtained by the dynamic LSTM model
was much better than that by the static LSTM model. The dynamic model also consistently
outperformed the linear models SA-5 and EMA-0.5 when predicting four stocks[27].
Lai, C.Y. proposed an LSTM model which used average previous five days stock
market information (open, high, low, Volume, close) as the input value. The initial predic-
tion was calculated using the value. The prediction was then used as part of the average
of the stock price information for the next five days through the ARIMA method. Moreo-
ver, he utilised Technical Analysis Indicators to consider whether to buy stocks or con-
tinue to hold stocks or sell stocks[28].
Hossain, M.A. proposed an LSTM model followed by GRU. Both of the LSTM and
GRU were powerful recurrent networks that could perform better and faster in terms of
accuracy in regression-based prediction. And the proposed model outperformed the
LSTM only, GRU only, and GRU followed by the LSTM model[29].
Baek, Y. proposed a novel data augmentation approach for stock market index fore-
casting through ModAugNet framework, which consisted of two modules: an overfitting
prevention LSTM module and a prediction LSTM module. The overfitting problems
mainly caused by the limited availability of data points for training[30].
Kim, H.Y. proposed some LSTM model to forecast stock price volatility that com-
bined the LSTM model with various generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedas-
ticity (GARCH) -type models. He found that the GEW-LSTM model, which combined all
three models, GARCH, EGARCH, and EWMA, with LSTM, performed best[31].
Li, H. proposed an improved MI- LSTM based on LSTM and attention mechanism,
which achieved better performance in extracting potential information and filtering noise.
The model could assign different weights to different input series to keep the dominant
status of the mainstream while absorbing information from leaky input gates[32].
Cheng, L.-C. proposed an Attention-based LSTM model that could solve the problem
of exploding and vanishing gradients and thus did not effectively capture long-term de-
pendencies[33].
Appl. Syst. Innov. 2021, 4, x FOR PEER REVIEW 15 of 34
Shah, D. proposed an LSTM model which was compared with the DNN model. The
proposed model was able to predict volatile movements in the true data. In general, it was
able to recognise the directionality of the changes in the true data more accurately than
the DNN[34].
Lin, B.-S. proposed an LSTM model to predict the price of the top 10 industries in-
cluded in Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation (TWSE).In the experimental results, most
of the results were reasonable except for the MTK stock[35].
Skehin, T. proposed a linear Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)
model and LSTM network for each series to produce next-day predictions. Wavelet meth-
ods decomposed a series into approximation and detail components to better explain be-
haviour over time. He combined these techniques in a novel ensemble model in an at-
tempt to increase forecast accuracy[36].
Zhang, X. proposed a simple but efficient method to predict future stock return rank-
ing without handcrafted features[37].
Achkar, R. proposed an approach to predict stock market ratios using artificial neural
networks. It considered two different techniques BPA-MLP and LSTM-RNN their poten-
tial, and their limitations. And the LSTM-RNN model outperformed the other one
slightly[38].
Zeng, Y. proposed an LSTM model which is based on the dataset SSE50, and the re-
sults showed that the accuracy is above 65%[39].
Shao, X. proposed a Kmeans-LSTM model that used the time window to divide the
stock price sequential data into several equal sub-sequences. And the K-means algorithm
is used to cluster the stock price sub-sequence (He did not give the specific result data.)
[40].
Zhao, Z. proposed a time-weighted LSTM. Unlike other models which treat data in-
discriminately, the proposed model could carefully assign weights to data according to
their temporal nearness towards the data that was used for prediction. And the results
showed that the proposed model outperformed the SVM, RNN, and Random Forest,
model[41].
Nelson, D.M. proposed an LSTM model which was based on the price history and
technical analysis indicators. And the results showed that the proposed model was better
than the MLP and Random Forest model[42].
Dos Santos Pinheiro proposed a character-based neural language model for an event-
based trading model that was combined with NLP and LSTM. The results showed that
the proposed model performed better than some model proposed in other papers such as
WI-RCNN and SI-RCNN[43].
Buczkowski, P. tackled the problem of stock market predicting feasibility, especially
when predictions were based only on a subset of available information, namely: financial
experts' recommendations. The analysis was based on data and results from the ISMIS
2017 Data Mining Competition[44].
Akita, R. proposed an approach that converted newspaper articles into their distrib-
uted representations via Paragraph Vector and modelled the temporal effects of past
events on open prices about multiple companies with LSTM[3].
Chen, K proposed an LSTM model to predict the price of the Chinese stock. But the
results showed that the accuracy is only 27.2%[45].
Qi, L. proposed an LSTM model to predict the price of the forex exchange rate. The
model used technical indicators to calculate events then LSTM is used to make the predic-
tion based on the events. [75]
Pang, Xiong Wen propsed two improved deep LSTM model with embedded layers.
The results showed its improvement over the benchmark. [80]
Feng, Fuli, et al. proposed a noval LSTM model that combined with stock relational
model, it had a great performance compared with its benchmarks. [81]
Appl. Syst. Innov. 2021, 4, x FOR PEER REVIEW 16 of 34
Chung, Hyejung, and Kyung-shik Shin proposed a LSTM model which is optimized
by genetic algorithm (GA). The novel hybrid model had outperformed the benchmark.[82]
Li, Jiahong, et al. proposed a LSTM model that was combined with a Naïve Bayne’s
model. This hybrid model had outperformed benchmarks, and delivered promising re-
sults. [83]
Zhang, Kang, et al. propsed a novel generative adversarial network based on MLP
and LSTM. The model is able to better results than some of the vanilla models. [84]
Jin, Zhigang, et al. propsed to incorporate sentiment analysis model into LSTM, they
successfully created a novel model which deliver a reasonable result. [91]
Long, Jiawei, et al. propsed a hybrid model, which utilised CNN to extract transac-
tional information, then it was passed through a LSTM to predict the stock price. The
model showed improvement over some of the vanilla benchmarks.[92]
Chen,M proposed a LSTM model which uses the sentiment data collected. It com-
bined both sentimental model as well as LSTM to produce a good result. [93]
Qian,Fei. Proposed a LSTM model which used ARIMA to improve its prediction
power. The model yielded a reasonable result.[94]
Li.Z and Tam, V proposed a LSTM model that used wavelet denoising technique
before passing through the LSTM model, the model had produced good result. [95]
4.1.4 DNN
13 articles that used DNN technology for the stock and Forex prediction were briefly
described below, and as shown in the table. Table 5 shows the author, variables, dataset,
and model of all the papers mentioned.
Table 6 The overall information for the papers which used DNN model
# Author Dataset Variables Model
[46] Song, Y. KOSPI and 715 novel input-fea- DNN
KOSDAQ tures(such as (mov-
ing average and dis-
parity of stock price)
[47] Naik, N. NSE SMA, Exponential DNN
ICICI Bank moving average, Mo-
SBI Bank mentum indicator,
Kotak Bank Stochastic oscillator,
Yes Bank Moving average con-
vergence divergence,
Relative strength in-
dex, Williams R, Ac-
cumulation
Distribution index,
Commodity channel
index
[48] Chatzis, S.P. FRED database and Stock price, Ex- DNN
the SNL change rates,VIX
index,Gold price,
TED spread, Oil
price, Effective Fed-
eral Funds Rate,
High yield bond re-
turns
[49] Abe, M. MSCI 25 variables:1.Book- DNN
to-market ratio
2.Earnings-to-price
ratio3.Dividend
yield4.Sales-to-price
ratio5.Cash flow-to-
price ratio 6.Return
on equity 7.Return
on asset
8.Return on invested
capital 9.Accru-
als10.Sales-to-total
assets ratio 11.Cur-
rent ratio12.Equity
ratio13.Total asset
Appl. Syst. Innov. 2021, 4, x FOR PEER REVIEW 17 of 34
growth14.Investment
growth15.Invest-
ment-to-assets ratio
16.EPS Revision(1
month) 17.EPS Revi-
sion(3 months)
18.Market beta19.
Market value 20.
Past stock return(1
month) 21.Past stock
return(12 months)
22 .Volatil-
ity23.Skewness24.Id-
iosyncratic volatil-
ity25. Trading turno-
ver
[50] Nakagawa, K. TOPIX index 16varia- Deep factor
bles:60VOL,BETA,S model(DNN) with
KEW,ROE,ROA,AC layer-wise relevance
CRUALS,LEVER- propagation and mul-
AGE,12- tiple factors)
1MOM,1MOM,60M
OM,PSR,PER,PBR,P
CFR,CAP,ILIQ
[51] Chong, E. KOSPI Close price DNN with autoen-
coder
[52] Singh, R. NASDAQ 36variables:Open (2D²PCA)
price,high price, low +DNN
price, close price,
MA5,MA10,MA20,
BIAS5,BIAS10,DIF
F,BU,BL,K,D,ROC,
TR,MTM6,MTM12,
WR%10,WR%5,OS
C6,OSC12,RSI6,RSI
12,PSY and the deri-
vation of their calcu-
lation
[87] Yu, Pengfei, and S&P 500, DJIA, the Closing price DNN with phase-
Xuesong Yan Nikkei 225 (N 225), space reconstruction
the (PSR) and LSTM
Hang Seng index
(HSI), the China Se-
curities index 300
(CSI 300) and the
ChiNext index
[89] Yong, Bang Xiang, et Singapore stock mar- Intraday prices DNN
al. ket
Song, Y. proposed a DNN model with 715 novel input-features configured on the basis of
technical analysis. He also had proposed a plunge filtering technique to improve the accuracy of
the training model by collecting similar stocks. It was worth noting that the proposed model had
great profitability[46].
Naik, N. proposed a DNN model that used the Boruta feature selection technique to solve the
problem of technical indicator feature selection and identification of the relevant technical indica-
tors. And the results showed that his model performed much better than ANN and SVM model[47].
Chatzis, S.P. proposed a DNN model in which it used Boosted approaches to predict stock
market crisis episodes. According to his research, it was meaningful to know the stock market crisis
to predict the price, even though his research was not specific to certain prediction methods[48].
Abe, M. proposed a DNN network and his results showed that DNNs generally outperform
shallow neural networks, and the best networks also outperformed representative machine learning
models[49].
Nakagawa, K. proposed a deep factor model and a shallow model with DNN. The deep factor
model outperformed the linear model. This implied that the relationship between the stock returns
in the financial market and the factors is nonlinear, rather than linear. The deep factor model also
outperformed other machine learning methods including SVR and random forest. The shallow
model was superior in accuracy, while the deep model was more profitable[50].
Appl. Syst. Innov. 2021, 4, x FOR PEER REVIEW 18 of 34
Chong, E. proposed DNN networks and examined the effects of three unsupervised feature
extraction methods including principal component analysis, auto-encoder, and the restricted Boltz-
mann machine, on the network's overall ability to predict future market behaviour. Empirical results
suggested that DNNs could extract additional information from the residuals of the auto-regressive
model and improve prediction performance; the same could not be said when the auto-regressive
model is applied to the residuals of the network[51].
Singh, R. proposed a 2-Directional 2-Dimensional Principal Component Analysis
(2D²PCA)+DNN which outperformed than the RNN and (2D²PCA) +RBFNN. The paper found
that the best results were generated from a window size of 20 and a dimension of 10 × 10. The
deep learning method for higher dimensions and large window sizes was giving a limited perfor-
mance[52].
Yu, Pengfei, and Xuesong Yan proposed a novel DNN model which incorporated LSTM as
well as phase-space recognition. The model had produce promising results. [87]
Yong, Bang Xiang, et al. propsed a DNN model with 40 nodes which showed a rea-
sonable results and appear to be a highly profitable model. [89]
Li, Y. proposed three different reinforcement learning methods to predict the price of the
stock. The results showed that the best-performing Deep Reinforcement Learning model is DQN,
not Double DQN. The paper also demonstrated Duelling DQN, which was an improved model
based on DQN[57].
Shin, H.-G. proposed a Reinforcement Learning model that combined with LSTM and CNN.
The model generated various charts from stock trading data and used them as inputs to the CNN
layer. The features extracted through the CNN layer were divided into column vectors and inputted
Appl. Syst. Innov. 2021, 4, x FOR PEER REVIEW 19 of 34
to the LSTM layer. The reinforcement learning defines agents' policy neural network structure,
reward, and action, and provides buying, selling, and holding probabilities as final output[58].
Jia, W. proposed a Reinforcement Learning with an LSTM-based agent who could automati-
cally sense the dynamics of the stock market and alleviate the difficulty of manually designing
indicators from massive data. The paper had compared a wide range of different input sets[59].
Carapuço, J. proposed a reinforcement learning-Q network model, Three hidden layers of
ReLU neutrons were trained as RL agents through the Q-learning algorithm under a novel simu-
lated market environment framework. The framework was able to consistently induce stable learn-
ing that generalised to out-of-sample data[60].
Kang, Q. proposed to apply the state-of-art Asynchronous Advantage Actor-Critic algo-
rithm(A3C algorithm) to solve the portfolio management problem and designed a standalone deep
reinforcement learning model[61].
Zhu, Y. proposed an adaptive box-normalisation (ABN) stock trading strategy based on rein-
forcement learning, which improved the original box theory. In his ABN strategy, the stock market
data was independently normalised inside each oscillation box[62].
Si, W. proposed a reinforcement learning model which had multi-objective and LSTM agent.
It could be found that feature learning could contribute to better performances. The LSTM network
made continuous decisions and could change positions at the right time, which reduced the trans-
action cost, and the multi-objective structure made good profits within the acceptable risk[63].
Pastore, A. analysed data for 46 players extracted from a financial market online game and
tested whether Reinforcement Learning could capture these players' behaviour using a riskiness
measure based on financial modelling[64].
consumer services
(PG), technology
(AAPL), health care
(UNH), consumer
goods (WMT), oil &
gas (XOM), basic
materials (DD) and
telecommunications
(VZ) From Yahoo.
[74] Zhang, and Khushi Forex Exchange Trend indicators: Genetic Algorithm
rates Moving average, Ex-
ponential moving av-
erage, Double expo-
nential moving aver-
age, Triple exponen-
tial moving average,
Vortex indicators
Momentum indica-
tors: Relative
strength index, Sto-
chastic oscillators,
Volatility indicators:
Bollinger bands,
Ichimoku indicators
[79] Hu, Ziniu Chinese stiock data News and financial Hybird attention net-
and economic news data works
[86] Shi, Lei, et al. Apple Inc. and S&P News and financial Hybrid of RNN,
500 data LSTM and CNN
4.2.2 RNN
Since the performance metrics used in different articles were different, our survey
analysed them based on different metrics. Results used were the average performance of
the best performing models in the mentioned papers. Table 9 shows the metrics and re-
sults for the papers which used the RNN model.
Table 9 The metrics and results for the papers which used RNN model
Performance Metrics Reference no. Corresponding value
RMSE [53] 512-530
[55] 0.0205
[73] 0.00165
MAPE [55] 0.2431
[73] 0.232
MAE [55] 0.0132
Accuracy [54] 68.95%
[55] 66.54%
F-measure [54] 0.7658
Recall [54] 0.7471
Precision [54] 0.7855
MSE [56] 0.057443
4.2.3 LSTM
Appl. Syst. Innov. 2021, 4, x FOR PEER REVIEW 22 of 34
Since the performance metrics used were different in different articles, our survey
would analyse them based on different metrics. Results used were the average perfor-
mance of the best performing models in the mentioned papers. Table 10 showed the met-
rics and results for the papers which used the LSTM model.
Table 10 The metrics and results for the papers which used LSTM model
Performance Met- Reference no. Corresponding Performance Met- Reference no. Corresponding
rics value rics value
RMSE [21] 0.306543 MAPE [24] 1.03
[24] 347.46 [27] 1.6905
[25] 0.0151 [29] 4.13
[26] 25.90 [30] 1.0077
[75] 0.119
[82] 0.91
[84] 1.37
[91] 1.65
[95] 0.6346
[27] 0.0242 Precision [42] 0.553
[28] 1.3 Recall [42] 0.129
[34] 9.72 Return rate [22] 1.0667
[35] 4.24(Average) MSE [21] 0.093969
[36] 1-10 [22] 0.004845492
[75] 0.0015
[94] 0.02295
[81] 0.000379
MAE [21] 0.21035 [24] 120731.4
[24] 262.42 [27] 19.7096
[26] 0.1895 [28] 0.019
[27] 0.0169 [29] 0.00098
[29] 0.023 [30] 7.56
[31] 0.01069 [31] 0.00149
[30] 1.975 [32] 1.012
Accuracy [23] 54.58% MCC [23] 0.0478
[25] 98.49% R2 [24] 0.83
[34] 60.60% HMAE [31] 0.42911
[39] 65% HMSE [31] 0.23492
[41] 83.91% IC [37] 0.1259
[42] 55.90% AR [37] 0.2015
[43] 63.34% IR [37] 3.0521
[45] 27.20%
[80] 53.2%
[83] 87.86%
[91] 70.56% Score [44] 0.4271
[92] 75.89%
[93] 75.58%
F-measure [42] 0.209
4.2.4 DNN
Since the performance metrics used in different articles were different, our survey
analysed them based on different metrics. Results used were the average performance of
the best performing models in the mentioned papers. Table 11 showed the metrics and
results for the papers which used the DNN model.
Table 11 The metrics and results for the papers which used DNN model
Performance Met- Reference no. Corresponding Performance Met- Reference no. Corresponding
rics value rics value
RMSE [50] 0.0951 Sharpe ratio [50] 1.41
[89] 5.34
[51] 0.8214 Return rate [49] 1.0952
[52] 0.00674 [50] 1.1081
MAE [50] 0.0663 CORR [49] 0.0582
[51] 0.5852 MSE [49] 0.0836
Accuracy [46] 61.90% [51] 0.9621
[47] 84.50% SMAPE [52] 0.0696
[87] 58.07%
Appl. Syst. Innov. 2021, 4, x FOR PEER REVIEW 23 of 34
5. Discussion
5.1 Analysis based on the method used
5.1.1 CNN
Some findings can be drawn from reviewing the CNN models:
1. According to the datasets that all the paper used, 6 papers used the combination
of technical analysis and sentiment and news analysis to predict the stock. The rest of
them used the method of technical analysis only.
2. As for the variables, the close price was the choice of all CNN models, and five
papers were using close price only.
3. It could be found that 12 of the papers changed the traditional CNN model to pur-
sue higher performance of prediction. And the combination of CNN and LSTM was the
most common model.
Appl. Syst. Innov. 2021, 4, x FOR PEER REVIEW 24 of 34
4. The metrics used in each paper were different; there were 11 metrics used for meas-
uring the performance of the CNN model.
5.Multiple articles selected RMSE, Return rate, F-measure, Sharpe ratio, and accu-
racy. We could find that the paper [19] had the highest accuracy than any other papers,
paper [13] had the highest return rate followed by the paper [18], [11] and [15]. Paper [71]
had the lowest RMSE. Paper [16] had a higher F-measure than paper [11], and [15], but
paper [15] achieved a higher Sharpe ratio than paper [11].
5.1.2 RNN
In the section of the RNN based model, the following conclusions could be drawn:
1. According to the datasets that all the paper used, there was 1 paper that used the
combination of technical analysis and sentiment and news analysis to predict the stock.
And the rest of them used technical analysis only.
2. For the variables, all the RNN based models used the multivariable input and open
price, close price, highest price, and the lowest price are used in all models as an input.
3. It could be found that all the papers changed the traditional RNN model to pursue
higher performance of prediction. Two of the papers chose the C-RNN based model.
4. The metrics used in each paper were different; in total, there were 8 metrics used
for measuring the performance of the RNN based model.
5.RMSE and accuracy were selected by multiple articles. We could note that paper
[55] has a much lower RMSE than paper [53], and paper [54] had higher accuracy than
paper [55].
5.1.3 LSTM
Following points were worth discussing from reviewing the LSTM papers:
1. According to the datasets that all the paper used, 3 papers used a combination of
technical analysis and sentiment and news analysis to predict the stock. The rest of them
used technical analysis only with the exception of one paper which used expert recom-
mendations.
2. As for the variables, the close price was the choice of 23 LSTM based models, there
were 8 papers using close price only, and 12 papers selected to include close price, open
price, high price, and low price in their input.
3. It could be found that 15 of the papers changed the traditional LSTM model to
pursue higher performance of prediction. Attention-based LSTM and LSTM with RNN
were the most frequent models that showed up in three different papers. Two papers
chose the method of LSTM with GRU to improve the model.
4.The metrics used in each paper were different; there were 17 metrics used for meas-
uring the performance of the LSTM based model.
Multiple articles selected 5.RMSE, MAPE, MAE, accuracy, and MSE, we could find
that Paper [25], paper [94] and paper [27] was in the lowest order of magnitude with paper
[25] achieving the lowest RMSE; paper [21] was in the second-lowest order of magnitude;
paper [28],[35],[36] and paper [34] were in the third lowest order of magnitude. Paper [26]
was in the fourth lowest order of magnitude and paper [24] had the highest order of mag-
nitude.
6. As for MAPE, paper [75] had the lowest order of magnitude followed by the paper
[30] ,[24], [82], [84],[91],[95] and [27]. And paper [29] had the highest order of magnitude
of MAPE.
7. As for MAE, paper [75], [31], [27] and [29] had the lowest order of magnitude MAE
with paper [75] having the best performance; paper[26] and [21] were in the second-lowest
order of magnitude while paper [30] was in the third lowest order of magnitude. Paper
[24] had the highest order of magnitude.
Appl. Syst. Innov. 2021, 4, x FOR PEER REVIEW 25 of 34
8. As for MSE, paper [81]had the lowest MSE and was in the lowest order of mag-
nitude; paper [29] , [31] and [22] were in the second-lowest order of magnitude while pa-
per [28] and [21] were in the third lowest order of magnitude. Paper [32] and [30] were in
the fourth lowest order of magnitude, paper [27] was in the fifth-lowest order of magni-
tude, and paper [24] had the highest order of magnitude of MAE.
9.As for accuracy, paper [25] had the highest accuracy followed by [83], [41],[39], [43],
[34], [42], [23] and paper [45] had the lowest accuracy.
5.1.4 DNN
In the section of DNN-based model, the following conclusions could be drawn:
1. According to the datasets that all the paper used, no paper used the combination
of technical analysis and sentiment and news analysis to predict the stock. All of them
used the method of technical analysis only.
2. As for the variables, six of the seven DNN-based models used multivariable input,
and only one paper used close price as its sole input.
3. It could be found that 3 of the papers changed the traditional DNN model to pursue
higher performance of prediction. All of the improved models were not duplicated.
4. Because the metrics used in each paper were different; there were 11 different met-
rics used for measuring the performance of the DNN-based model.
5. Multiple articles selected 5.RMSE, MAE, accuracy, return rate, and MSE. We could
find that the paper [52] had the lowest RMSE followed by the paper [50] and [51], with
the latter two in different orders of magnitude.
6. As for MAE, paper [50] had a lower MAE than paper [51], and the accuracy of the
paper [47] was higher than paper [46] and [87]. Furthermore, paper [50] had a higher re-
turn rate than paper [49]. And paper [49] had a lower MSE than paper [51].
3. It could be found that there were 5 different models in the other deep learning
methods section. The only model that appeared three times was HAN, which consist of
an ordinary HAN model and two modified HAN models. The rest of the models were not
duplicated.
4. Because the metrics used in each paper were different, there were 9 metrics used
in the measurement performance of this section.
5. Multiple articles selected 5. Accuracy, Sharpe ratio, and Return rate, we could find
that the paper [86] had the highest accuracy.Paper [65] had a much higher Sharpe ratio
than paper [69].
6. As for the return rate, paper [70] had the highest return rate followed by the paper
[65], [69]and paper [68] had the lowest return rate.
MCC [23]
HMAE [31]
HMSE [31]
CORR [49]
SMAPE [52]
Volatility [50]
IC [37]
AR [37]
IR [37]
Score [44]
[75],[94] used LSTM based model; paper [50], [51], [52] used DNN based model; paper
[53], [55], [73] used RNN based model and paper [67] used other deep learning method.
Table 15 Analysis based on RMSE
RMSE Reference no.
range
RMSE [8], [9], [21], [24], [25], [26], [27],
[28], [34], [35],[36],[50], [51],
[52], [53], [55], [67],[71],[75],[94]
<0.001 [71], [75]
0.001-0.01 [52], [73]
0.01-0.1 [8], [21], [25],[27],[50], [55],[94]
0.1-1 [9],[51],[67]
1-10 [28],[34],[35],[36]
10-100 [26]
>100 [24], [53]
It was clear that paper [71], [75] achieved the best performance using DNN model.
Papers that had a RMSE smaller than 0.001, paper [52], [73], [8], [21], [25], [27], [50], [55]
had great performance while paper [26], [24], [53] didn’t have the low RMSE .
Among all the papers, 33% of the CNN papers had an RMSE below 0.001, 33% of the
CNN papers were in the range of 0.01-0.1, and 33% of the CNN papers were in the range
of 0.1-1. 36% of the LSTM papers were in the range of 0.01-0.1 and 1-10 respectively, , the
rest LSTM papers were distributed equally in range of <0.001, 10-100 and above 100 with
9%in each range. 33.3% of the DNN papers were in the range of 0.001-0.01, 0.01-0.1 and
0.1-1 respectively. The RNN papers were distributed equally in the range of 0.001-0.01,
0.01-0.1 and above 100, i.e. 33% in each range. The only paper that used other deep learn-
ing method had an RMSE in the range of 0.01-0.1.
It could be found that paper [52], [55],[75] performed best which used the DNN
model and RNN model and LSTM respectively, and both were in the range of 1-1.5, paper
[24],[30],[82] had great performance while paper [9], [29] didn't have a low MAPE.
Among all the papers, the only CNN paper was in the range of 2-10. 37.5% of the
LSTM papers were in the range of 1-1.5, 12.5% of the LSTM papers were in the range of
0.5-1, 1.5-2, and 2-10 respectively, 25% of LSTM papers in a range of 0-0.5. The two DNN
papers were in the range 0-0.5, and 1-1.5. Lastly, the only one RNN paper was in the range
of 0-0.5.
[28], [29], [31], [33], [32] used LSTM based model; paper [50], [51] used DNN based model
and paper [55] , [73] used RNN based model.
Table 17 Analysis based on MAE
MAE range Reference no.
MAE [9], [21], [24], [26], [27], [29],
[31], [30], [50], [51], [55],
[71]
<0.01 [71]
0.01-0.1 [27],[29],[31],[50],[55]
0.1-1 [21],[26],[51],[73]
1-10 [9],[30]
10-100 N/A
>100 [24],
It could be found that paper [71] performed best which used CNN model. Papers'
MAE were in the range of 0.1-1. Paper [27], [29], [31], [50], [55] also had good performance,
however, paper [24] didn’t have a low MAE.
Among all the papers that used MAE as measurement, 50% of CNN paper was in the
range of 1-10; the other 50% had an MAE small than 0.01. 42.9% of the LSTM papers were
in the range of 0.01-0.1, 28.6% of the LSTM papers were in the range of 0.1-1, 14.2% of the
LSTM papers were in the range of 1-10 and above 100 respectively, 50% of the DNN pa-
pers were in the range of 0.01-0.1 and 0.1-1 respectively. The two RNN papers were in the
range of 0.01-0.1 and 0.1-1.
It could be found that paper [81] performed the best which used the LSTM model; its
MSE was smaller than 0.01. Paper [71], [22], [29], [31],[62] also had good performance,
however, paper [24], [27] didn’t have the low MSE.
Among all the papers that used MSE as performance measurement, the only CNN
paper was in the range of 0.1-1, 40% of the LSTM papers were in the range of 0-0.01, 20%of
the LSTM papers were in the range of 0.01-0.1, 10% of the LSTM papers were in the range
of 0.1-1, 1-10, 10-100 and above 100 respectively, 50% of the DNN papers were in the range
of 0.01-0.1 and 0.1-1 respectively. The only RNN based model and reinforcement learning-
based model was in the range of 0-0.01 and 0.01-0.1 respectively.
used LSTM based model;paper [46], [47], [87] used DNN based model; paper [54], [55]
used RNN based model and paper [68], [70],[86] used other deep learning method.
Table 19 Analysis based on the accuracy
Accuracy range Reference no.
Accuracy [10],[13],[16], [19], [20],[23], [25],
[34],[39], [41], [42], [43], [45],[46], [47],
[54], [55], [68],
[70],[76],[77],[78],[80],[83],[86],[87],
[90],[91],[92],[93]
0-50% [45],[70]
50%-60% [16],[23],[42],[78],[80],[87]
60%-70% [13], [20],[34],[39],[43],[46],[54],
[55],[68]
70%-80% [10],[19],[76],[77],[86],[90],[91],[92],[93]
80%-90% [41],[47].[83]
90%-100% [25]
It could be found that paper [25] performed best, which used LSTM model, and the
paper's accuracy was in the range of 90%-100%. Paper [41], [47] ,[83] also had great per-
formance, but paper [45], [70] didn’t have the high accuracy.
Among all the papers that had accuracy measure metric, 22% of the CNN papers
were in the range of 50%-60%, and 22% of the CNN papers were in the range of 60%-70%
and 55% of the CNN papers were in the range of 70%-80%. 8% of the LSTM papers were
in the range of 0-50%, and 90%-100% respectively,15% of the LSTM papers were in the
range of 80%-90%, 23% of the LSTM papers were in the range of 50%-60%, 60%-70% and
70%-80% respectively. 33% of the DNN papers were in the range of 50%-60%, 60%-70%
and 80%-90% respectively. All the RNN papers were in the range of 60%-70%. 33% of
other deep learning methods were in the range of 40%-50%, 60%-70% and 70-80% respec-
tively.
It could be found that paper [65], [74],[89] performed best, which used DNN model,
and Sharpe ratio was in the range of 5-10. Paper [58] also had a great performance, but
paper [11], [15],[63], [69], [72] didn’t have the high Sharpe ratio.
Among all the paper that used the Sharpe ratio, all CNN papers were in the range of
0.1-1. The two DNN papers were in the range of 1-2 and 5-10. 50% of the Reinforcement
learning paper was in the range of 0.1-1, and 50% of the Reinforcement learning paper
was in the range of 2-5. 50% of the other deep learning method paper was in the range of
0.1-1, and 50% of the other deep learning method paper was in the range of 5-10.
Appl. Syst. Innov. 2021, 4, x FOR PEER REVIEW 30 of 34
It could be found that paper [59] performed the best which used Reinforcement learn-
ing model, and the paper's return rate was in the range of 1.4-1.8. Paper [65] and [70] had
good performance but paper [22], [49], [50], [60], [68], [69], [74] didn’t have the high return
rate.
Among all the papers that used return rate as a performance measurement, all the
CNN papers were in the range of 1.2-1.4, and the only LSTM paper was in the range of
1.0-1.2, all the DNN papers were in the range of 1.0-1.2. 50% of the Reinforcement learning
papers were in the range of 1.0-1.2, and 50% of the Reinforcement learning papers were
in the range of 1.8-2. The other deep learning method papers performed well with 14%
paper in the range of 1.0-1.2, 42% paper in the range of 1.4-1.6 , and 42% paper in the range
of 1.6-1.8.
6. Conclusions
This paper provided a detailed review of 88 papers from 2015 to the present on pre-
dicting stock /Forex price movements through deep learning methods. The existing
stock/Forex models were evaluated through analysing data sets, variables, the use of dif-
ferent models, and the metrics of evaluation. The research review included a wide range
of techniques: CNN, LSTM, DNN, RNN, Reinforcement learning, and other deep learning
methods such as HAN, NLP, and Wavenet. Furthermore, the data sets, variables, models,
and their different results were analysed and compared within each technique. Then our
paper discusses the main performance metrics of all models. They are RMSE, MAPE,
MAE, MSE, Accuracy, Sharpe ratio and Return rate.
This paper aimed to contribute to the research of stock/ Forex market prediction
through the analysis of the above different deep learning prediction models. Through the
review, It can be identified that there is a lack of studies on the combination of multiple
deep learning methods, espically in respect to other deep learning methods. The hybrid
networks are showing promising signs for future research. In the future, we would design
a specific hybrid model based on the above analysis, incorporating latest technology such
as advanced genetic algorithms, self attention neural networks to predict the stock/Forex
market.
Author Contributions: First two authors contributed equally, MK conceived & designed the study
supervised the work and revised the manuscript.
Funding: This research received no external funding.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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