NETWORK ANALYSIS-III

Ex.1: A small project consists of seven activities. Optimistic, most likely and pessimistic time
estimates are given for each activity.

Activity Preceding Time(Days)

Activity Optimistic Most Pessimistic
likely
A - 2 5 8
B - 2 5 14
C A 4 6 14
D A 5 7 15
E B,C 2 3 10
F D 3 3 3
G E 1 2 3
(a) Draw the PERT network and find expected completion time of project.
(b) What is the probability that the project will be completed in?
(1) 18 days
(2) 21 days
(3) 16 days
(c) If the project manager wants an assurance of 95% that the project is completed on time, how
many days before the scheduled date he should start the project?

EX.2: A small project consist of seven activities, details of the project are as follows:

Activity Time Estimates(days)

optimistic most likely pessimistic
1-2 2 4 6
1-3 3 6 9
2-3 1 4 7
2-4 2 3 4
3-5 1 3 5
4-6 1 1 1
5-6 1 2 3
(a) Draw project network diagram and find critical path along with project completion time.
(b) Tabulate variance and expected project completion time.
(c) Find the probability of project completion in 15 days.

EX.3: M/S Motwani Limited has taken up a special project consisting of 10 activities whose
three point time estimates are listed in the table below. Activities are marked with their node
numbers.

PROF. VIJAY VANJARE Page 1

 NETWORK ANALYSIS-III

Activity Time Estimates in Weeks

Optimistic Most likely pessimistic
1-2 1 2 3
1-3 1 2 3
1-4 1 2 3
2-5 4 9 20
3-5 2 5 14
3-7 3 6 15
5-7 1 2 9
4-6 2 4 6
6-7 3 3 3
7-8 4 4 4

(a) Draw network diagram and find expected completion time of project.
(b) Identify Critical path.
(c) Find the probability that the project is completed in 17 weeks.
(d) What is the probability that the project will not be completed in 20 weeks?
(e) If the projects includes a penalty clauses of Rs.1000 per weeks for any delay beyond 19
weeks. What is the probability of paying a penalty of more than Rs.5000?
(f) What project duration will have 95% confidence of completion?
(g) If the project manager wants to complete the project with 95% confidence in 21 weeks, by
how much time should he crash the average project completion time?

EX4: The data for a PERT network is given in the following table.

Activity Node Time Duration(days)

(i-j) o m P
1-2 2 4 6
1-3 6 6 6
1-4 6 12 24
2-3 2 5 8
2-5 11 14 28
3-4 15 24 45
3-6 3 6 9
4-6 9 15 27
5-6 4 10 16

o-optimistic m-most likely p-pessimistic

(a) Draw a network and Estimate the expected duration of the project and corresponding
variance
(b) What is the probability that the project will be completed between 45 to 54 days?
(c) What is the probability of completing the project within 30 days?
PROF. VIJAY VANJARE Page 2
 NETWORK ANALYSIS-III
EX.5: The owner of chain of fast-food restaurants has to install computer system for the
accounting and inventory control. A company sent the following information about the system
installation:

Activity Activity Immediate Time Estimated(in days)

Identification Description predecessor Most Most Most
optimistic likely pessimistic
A Select the computer - 4 6 8
model
B DesignInput/output A 5 7 9
system
C Design monitoring A 4 8 12
system
D Assemble computer B 15 20 25
hardware
E Develop the main B 10 18 26
programmes
F Develop Input/ C 8 9 16
Output routines
G Create database E 4 8 12
H Install the system D,F 1 2 3
I Test and implement G,H 6 7 8
(a) Construct a network diagram for the project
(b) Calculate the earliest start/finish(EST/EFT) and latest start/finish(LST/LFT) for each
activity. Hence find the critical path.
(c) Compute the expected project completion time.
(d) What is the probability that the project will be completed within 55 days?
(e) How many days before should the company start the project so as to complete it within
the time with 99% assurance?

EX.6: A project manager has made following 3 point time estimates for various activities of a
project:

Events Three point estimates in days

optimistic Most likely pessimistic
1-2 6 6 24
1-3 6 12 18
1-4 12 12 30
2-5 6 6 6
3-5 12 30 48
4-6 12 30 42
5-6 18 30 54
(a) Draw the PERT network and find out the expected project completion time.
(b) What project completion will have 90% confidence of completion?

PROF. VIJAY VANJARE Page 3

 NETWORK ANALYSIS-III
(c) If there is a huge penalty for exceeding the project completion deadline of 4 days beyond
estimated completion time (50% confidence), what is the probability of being penalized?

EX.7:M/S.BMS have taken up a special project consisting of a 8 activities whose three point
time estimates are listen in the table below. Activities are marked with their node numbers.

Activity Node Time Estimates In Weeks

Numbers Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic
time time time
1-2 1 3 5
1-3 2 4 6
2-5 3 5 7
2-4 5 6 7
5-6 5 7 9
4-6 6 8 10
3-6 7 9 11
6-7 2 3 4
(a) Draw the PERT network for the project and identify the critical path.
(b) Prepare a chart to show estimated time for each activity and standard deviation and
variance for critical activities from time estimates as given above.
(c) If 21 weeks deadline is imposed, what is the probability that the project will be finished
within that time?
(d) If the project manager wants to be 99% certain that the project should be completed on
schedule what will be the project duration?

Ex.8: Details of nine activities of a project are as follows:

Activity Time In Days

Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic
1-2 2 5 14
1-6 2 5 8
2-3 5 11 29
2-4 1 4 7
3-5 5 11 17
4-5 2 5 14
6-7 3 9 27
5-8 2 2 8
7-8 7 13 31
(a) Draw the network diagram and determine various paths and their duration.
(b) Calculate the probability of completion of the project in 38 days.
(c) Calculate the project duration if the probability of project completion is to be 94.5%.

PROF. VIJAY VANJARE Page 4