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ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS
(Probability)
Engr. Miguel Albert D. Calizar
Learning Objective:
• Define probability, sample space, and events.
• Applying the additive laws of probability.
Introduction
• Probability describes the likelihood of an event to happen.
When probabilities are used to describe the occurrence on a
particular event, then you are projecting the likelihood of
that event to happen. For example, when a classmate states “I
think the probability of a seatwork tomorrow is about 40%”
they are describing what they think is the chance of a
seatwork tomorrow.
• Probability is also a measure of certainty of a certain
outcome. For instance, if we toss a coin, we expect it to end
up heads half the time. When we roll a die with 6 numbers, we
expect to get a 6 one times out of six throws. The
probability of a coin coming up heads is 0.5 and the
probability of a die coming up 3 is 1/6. Something that is
certain has a probability of 1, whereas something that is
impossible has a probability of 0.
Sample Space
• The set S of all possible outcomes of a statistical
experiment is called a sample space, (designated by the
symbol S). Each outcomes in a sample space is called an
element or a member of the sample space S, simply a sample
point or a sample.

• Example: Consider an experiment of tossing a dice. If we are

interested in the number that shows on the top face of the
dice, then the sample space would be

𝑺 = {𝟏, 𝟐, 𝟑, 𝟒, 𝟓, 𝟔}.
Event
• An event A is a subset of a sample space S.

• Example: If event A is the outcome when a dice is tossed and

the result is divisible by 3, then event A will be the set,

𝑨 = {𝟑, 𝟔}.
Probability
• If an experiment can result in any one of N different equally
likely outcomes, and if exactly n of these outcomes
correspond to event A, then the probability of event A is

𝑵𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔 𝒂 𝒔𝒑𝒆𝒄𝒊𝒇𝒊𝒄 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝑨 𝒄𝒂𝒏 𝒐𝒄𝒄𝒖𝒓, 𝒏

𝑷 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝑨 =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔, 𝑵

𝒏
𝑷 𝑨 =
𝑵
Example:
• Calculate the probability of getting a Jack from 1 draw of a
well shuffled deck of cards.
Properties of Probability
• P(A) = the probability of the event A
• P(S) = the probability of the sample space

1. Positiveness. For every event A, 0 ≤ 𝑃 𝐴 ≤ 1.

This means that the probability of an event to happen is
always positive.

2. Probability of a sure event, 𝑃(𝑆) = 1

3. If ϕ is the empty set, the 𝑃(𝜙) = 0

Additive Laws of Probability
1. If A and B are any two events, then

𝑃 A ∪ B = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
Example: The probability that Albert passes Mathematics is 2/3, and the probability
that he passes English is 4/9. if the probability of passing both courses is 1/4,
what is the probability that Albert will pass at least one of these courses.
Additive Laws of Probability
2. If A and B are mutually exclusive (disjoint) event,
then
𝑃 A∪B =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵
Example: What is the probability of drawing a 4 or a 7 from a shuffled deck of
cards?
Additive Laws of Probability
3. If Ac is the complement of an event A (not an
element of A), then
𝑃 Ac = 1 − 𝑃 𝐴
Example: If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic will service 3, 4, 5, 6,
7, or 8, or more cars on any given workday are, respectively, 0.12, 0.19, 0.28,
0.24, 0.10 and 0.07, what is the probability that he will service at least 5 cars on
his next day at work?
Additive Laws of Probability
4. If A1, A2, . is a sequence of mutually exclusive
events, then
𝑃 𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ ⋯ = 𝑃 𝐴1 + 𝑃 𝐴2 + ⋯
Example: If the probabilities are, respectively, 0.09, 0.15, 0.21, and 0.23 that a
person purchasing a new automobile will choose the color green, white, red, or blue,
what is the probability that a given buyer will purchase a new automobile that comes
in one of those colors?
Conditional Probability
• Conditional probabilities are calculated when we need to know the
likelihood of event A happening given that event B has already happened.
• We say that event A is conditional on event B.
• Conditional probabilities don't have a keyword, they have a key-symbol
(|).
• Conditional probabilities are written p(A|B), which can be read "The
probability of A given B".
• Let A be an arbitrary event in a sample space S with P (E) > 0. The
probability that, an event A occurs once E has occurred or, in other
words, the conditional probability of A given E, written P(A|E), is
defined as follows:

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐸) 𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑒𝑡 𝐴 ∩ 𝐸 𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸 𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟
𝑃 𝐴|𝐸 = = =
𝑃(𝐸) 𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑒𝑡 𝐸 𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝐸 𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟
Conditional Probability
Example: Find the probability of drawing a 4 from a shuffled deck of cards given
that you have already drawn a 7 from the deck.
Multiplication Theorem for Conditional Probability
• If events A and B can both occur, then 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴|𝐵 ∙ 𝑃 𝐵 since
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐵 ∩ 𝐴 , then 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 B|𝐴 ∙ 𝑃 𝐴 .
• Similarly,
𝑃 𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3 ∩ ⋯ ∩ 𝐴𝑛 = 𝑃 𝐴1 ∙ 𝑃 𝐴2 |𝐴1 ∙ 𝑃 𝐴3 |𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 … 𝑃(𝐴𝑛 |𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3 ∩ ⋯ 𝐴𝑛−1 )

Independent Events
• Two events A and B are independent if and only if 𝑃 A|𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 and 𝑃 B|𝐴 =
𝑃 𝐵 .
• So that,
𝑃 A ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∙ 𝑃(𝐵)
Examples:
Two cards are drawn at random from an ordinary pack of 52 cards. Find the
probability that:
a. Both are spades.
b. One is a spade and one is a heart.
Examples:
Three light bulbs are chosen at random from a box containing 15 bulbs of which 5 are
defective. Find the probability if:
a. None is defective.
b. Exactly one is defective.
c. At least one is defective.
Thank You