Probability

Introduction
• "Probability is that branch of mathematics which calculates or studies the
degree of uncertainty i.e the chances of happening of an event".

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• Probability is simply how likely something is to happen. Whenever we're unsure
about the outcome of an event, we can talk about the probabilities of certain
outcomes—how likely they are.

What is an Experiment?
An operation which can produce some well defined outcomes is called an
experiment. Each outcome (result) is an Event.
For eg :- When we toss a coin, we know that we will get the following well-
defined outcomes — Head or Tail.

Random Experiment?

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An experiment in which all the possible outcomes are known but the exact
outcome cannot be predicted in advance, is called a random experiment.
For eg :- When we throw a coin we know that it's possible outcomes are Head
and Tail. But, we cannot predict in advance whether the coin will show a head
or a tail.

SOME EXPERIMENTS and THEIR OUTCOMES

1. Tossing a coin (2) 1 :- T or H
2
2. Tossing two coins (2) :- TT, TH, HT, HH
3. Tossing three coins (2)3 :- HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT,
THT, TTH, TTT
4. Throwing a die (6) 1 :- 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Two Basic Terms
(1) Equally Likely Outcome : If in an experiment, we have the same possibility of
getting each outcome then it is called equally likely
outcomes. For eg :- A dice after rolling has the same possibility of getting 1, 2, 3,
4, 5 and 6 as well.
(2) Not Equally Likely Outcome : If in an experiment, we don't have the same
possibility of getting each outcome then it is
said to be not Equally Likely Outcome. For eg :- Suppose in a bag which has
5 yellow balls and 2 red balls, they are not equally likely as the possibility of

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the yellow ball is 5 and of red ball 2.

Types of Events
(i) Impossible Event :
If there is no possibility of an event to occur then its probability is zero.
This type of event is known as impossible event.
For eg :- It is not possible to draw a blue ball from a group of red balls.
(ii) Sure or Certain Event :
If the possibility of an event to occur is sure and known then it is said to
be the sure event or certain event and it's probability is 1.

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This shows that the probability of an event could be

0 <_ P(E) <_ 1

The probability of an event E written as P(E) is given by

Number of favourable outcomes

P(E) =
Total number of outcomes
For any event E,
/

P(E) + P(E) = 1
/

where E stands for 'not E and is called the complement of event E.

Also, event E and E are called 'complementary events'.
Example: Suppose we throw a die once. Find the probability of getting:
(i) a number greater than 4?
(ii) a number less than or equal to 4?
SOLUTION: When we throw a die once, the total no of possible outcomes is six :
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.
(i) Let E = event of 'getting a number greater than 4'
Favourable outcomes 2 1
P(E) = = =

//
//
Total number of outcomes 6 3
Here, favourable outcomes to E are 5 and 6. So,
Number of favourable outcomes = 2

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(ii) Let F = event of 'getting a number less than or equal to 4'
here favourable no. of outcomes are 4 i.e 1, 2, 3, 4.
4 2
P(F) = =
//

6 3
Example: Two unbiased coins are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability
of getting
(i) two heads (ii) one head (iii) atleast one head (iv) no head
SOLUTION: If two unbiased coins are tossed simultaneously the following are the
possible outcomes that can be obtained :
HH, HT, TH, TT
Therefore, total no of possible outcomes = 4

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(i) Two heads are obtained only if the HH event occurs
so, favourable number of outcomes = 1
Hence, required probability = 1/4
(ii) One head is obtained only if HT, TH events occur
so, favourable number of outcomes = 2
Hence, required probability = 2/4 = 1/2
(iii) Atleast one head is obtained only if HH, HT, TH events occur
so, favourable number of outcomes = 3
Hence, required probability = 3/4
(iv) No head is obtained only if TT event occurs
so, favourable number of outcomes = 1
Hence, required probability = 1/4
 Concept of Cards
A pack of playing cards consists 52 cards which are divided into 4 suits of 13
cards each. Each suit consists of one Ace, one King, one Queen, one Jack and 9
other cards numbered from 2 to 10.
♠️ ❤️ ♦️
Four suits are named as spades ( ), hearts ( ), diamonds ( ) and clubs ( ). ♣
52 Cards

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26 RED 26 BLACK

13 13 13 13

♦️
Heart Diamond Spade Club
❤️ ♠ ♣
13 cards of
each shape
:- K Q J A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Honour cards

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Number cards
#Important points to remember
(1) The cards of King, Queen and Jack have a face drawn on them and thus are
called 'Face Cards'. Each of the 4 suits have 3 face cards each. So, total no of
face cards are 3 × 4 = 12 (6 BLACK + 6 RED).
(2) The cards having a digit written on them are called 'Digit Cards or Number
Cards'. Total no of digit cards are 9 × 4 = 36 (18 BLACK + 18 RED)
(3) There are 2 Kings of Red colour and 2 Kings of Black colour.
(4) The cards like King, Queen, Jack and Ace are called 'Honour Cards' having the
highest value among all 52 cards.
(5) Total number of Honour Cards = 4 × 4 = 16 (8 BLACK + 8 RED).
Example: One card is drawn from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find the
probability that the card drawn is:
(i) an ace (ii) red card
(iii) either red or king (iv) red and a king
SOLUTION: Out of 52 cards, one card can be drawn in 52 ways.
So, the total number of outcomes = 52.
(i) There are 4 Ace cards in a pack of 52 cards.
Therefore, favourable number of outcomes = 4
Hence, required probability = 4/52 = 1/13

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(ii) There are 26 Red cards in a pack of 52 cards. Out of 26 Red cards
one card can be chosen in 26 ways.
Therefore, favourable number of outcomes = 26
Hence, required probability = 26/52 = 1/2
(iii) There are 26 Red cards, including two red kings. Also, there are
4 kings, two red and two black.
Therefore, favourable number of outcomes = 26 Red + 2 Black = 28
Hence, required probability = 28/52 = 7/13.
(iv) A card drawn will be red as well as king, if it is a red king. There
are 2 red kings in a pack of 52 playing cards.
Therefore, favourable number of outcomes = 2

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Hence, required probability = 2/52 = 1/26.

Example: Find the probability that a leap year selected at random will contain
53 Sundays.
SOLUTION: In a leap year there are 366 days & 366 days = 52 weeks and 2 days.
Thus, a leap year has always 52 Sundays.
The remaining 2 days can be:
(i) Sunday & Monday (ii) Monday & Tuesday
(iii) Tuesday & Wednesday (iv) Wednesday & Thursday
(v) Thursday & Friday (vi) Friday & Saturday
(vii) Saturday & Sunday.
Clearly, there are seven elementary events associated with this random
experiment.
Let A be the event that "a leap year has 53 Sundays".
 Clearly, favourable outcomes to event A are either Sunday & Monday
or Saturday & Sunday.
Therefore, favourable number of outcomes = 2
Hence, required probability = 2/7

Example: Two dice are thrown simultaneously. Find the probability of getting:
(i) an even number as the sum (ii) the sum as a prime number
(iii) a doublet of even number
SOLUTION: When two dices are thrown simultaneously, then total no of outcomes

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will be 62 = 36 which are as follows:

1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

(i) Let A be the event of 'getting an even number as the sum'

Clearly, favourable number of outcomes to A are 18

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Hence, required probability = 18/36 = 1/2
(ii) Let B be the event of 'getting the sum as a prime number '
Clearly, favourable number of outcomes to B are 15
Hence, required probability = 15/36 = 5/12
(iii) Let C be the event of 'getting a doublet of even number '
Clearly, favourable number of outcomes to C are 3
Hence, required probability = 3/36 = 1/12.

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