Money Map Report
Money Map Report
Money Map Report
VOL/17 ISSUE/2
FEBRUARY/2021
L S T.
WAL
Of course, they were eventually going to look to the stock The good news is retail investors have done well, very well
market as a means of income, maybe as a job or a career, in fact. Goldman Sachs analysts recently reported that retail
or a way to play the Wall Street game because they’re a favorites outperformed hedge funds, mutual funds, and the
generation of “gamers.” broad market. And when markets swooned in September
and again in late October, retail didn’t panic; rather, they
Millions of new traders and investors opened accounts in bought the dips, like they’ve been doing…
2020 with Robinhood, the upstart Silicon Valley brokerage
that introduced no-fee trading in 2013. As of the end of Like smart investors have been doing since the market
2020, Robinhood had more than 13 million customers on bottomed in March 2009.
their platform. That’s why we’re experiencing an everything rally, because
While Robinhood caters to everyone, 70% of their clients retail investors are buying everything on all dips.
are millennials and often trade on their smartphones. That’s what’s changed.
On October 1, 2019, TD Ameritrade announced it too What’s also changed is new and seasoned investors aren’t
was going “commission-free.” That same day, E*TRADE just researching their own picks, they’re also listening to
joined the party and so did Charles Schwab. Fidelity joined traders and investors in chat rooms, in online forums like
the trade-for-free movement a week later. Now, almost Reddit’s WallStreetBets, and they’re following influencers.
everyone has commission-free trading, including Vanguard,
Quite often, a significant amount of buying starts in a chat
Interactive Brokers Lite, and Merrill Edge.
room. It gathers listeners and viewers and social media
The timing of industry commission cuts couldn’t have been followers who buy more, which attracts Wall Street-types
better. Only a few months later, COVID-19 descended who monitor chat rooms playing the momentum game,
on the world. In the U.S., stimulus checks were sent out and they buy more, which draws in more retail buyers,
to tens of millions of Americans, and to everyone’s which lifts prices more, in what can and often becomes a
surprise, millions of recipients opened accounts at all the positive feedback loop.
commission-free brokerages.
However, the exact opposite also happens when selling
According to J.P. Morgan Securities, 10 million new starts. So far, however, the buy-the-dip call to arms has
brokerage accounts were opened in 2020, a staggering made dips mere opportunistic interludes in what’s been a
number and the basis for the rise of retail. spectacular bull market.
Retail, referring to everyday individuals, millennials, and The jury’s out on how long this bull’s going last, but given
mom-and-pop traders and investors, has now become the the changes afoot, my bet is, we’re not done.
tail that wags the dog, with the dog being Wall Street. Then there’s GameStop.
Citadel Securities, a division of giant Citadel LLC – a
hedge fund, a market maker, a high-frequency trading
juggernaut, and buyer of retail “order flow” – estimated
GameStop: The Epic Short-
that in 2019, on average, retail accounted for 10% of daily
volume. By the end of 2020, retail accounted for 20% of
Squeeze Story
stock trading volume. While most of the crazy action in late January was in
GameStop stock, there were a handful of other stocks that
Now, on peak volume days, retail buying and selling got the same treatment.
accounts for 25% of volume.
The short story (yes, that’s a pun) is GameStop had been
When it comes to options trading, retail traders are buying considered dead meat by hedge funds who had been
and selling millions of calls and puts every day. In 2020, shorting the brick-and-mortar video game retailer. Their
average daily options volume was 29.7 million contracts, mistake was shorting it too much, way too much, and with
up 50% from 2019. In the first month of 2021, it was 40 too much leverage, and illegally.
2
By illegally, I mean hedgies weren’t complying with SEC must file Form 13F with the SEC no later than 45 days after
and exchange regulations that require investors who want a calendar quarter ends. Form 13F discloses their positions
to short a stock to first “locate” it, which is a process that at of the end of the quarter.
entails their brokerages or prime broker calling around
Investors have scoured Form 13F disclosures for years
to see who has stock in their inventory, and then actually
looking to piggyback hedge fund plays. Even hedge funds
“borrowing” it, so when short sellers sell stock short, the
look at them to see what their peers are doing. Now retail
buyer on the other end of their trades gets possession of
traders are eyeing them.
shares – electronically, that is.
Using Yahoo Finance’s “statistics” page for stocks listed by While short stock positions aren’t required to be disclosed on
their ticker symbol, GameStop has 69.75 million shares Form 13F reports, options positions are. Traders discovered
outstanding. The number of shares that “float,” meaning several hedge funds had huge “long” put options positions
shares available to trade as opposed to being held by in GameStop and easily calculated how many shares they
insiders or locked up in the company’s treasury, is 46.89 would be short if they exercised their put option contracts.
million shares. At the height of the stock being shorted, its That’s how the party started.
“short ratio,” the number of shares that had been shorted What isn’t readily known or understood is how retail buyers
as a percentage of floating shares, reached 260%. of call options amplified the buying action.
That means there were more shares shorted than floating When thousands, sometimes tens of thousands or more
or outstanding, a lot more. retail traders buy call options, even if they’re buying one-
What started on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum, but spread contract lots, the market makers who sell them those call
like wildfire, was a call to retail traders to collectively buy options become “short” those options, because they’ve sold
GameStop stock to drive the price of the stock higher and call options they never owned.
“squeeze” the hedge funds who had shorted it into covering
As market makers, they sell the other side of a trade and
and buying shares back at higher and higher prices.
have exposure. Market makers who sell options naked,
Retail traders also bought call options on GameStop and meaning they’re short them, hope they expire worthless
the other targets to profit from a rise in share prices. And and they get to keep the premium that buyers paid them.
they drew lots of other players into the game, including
hedge funds who followed their tracks knowing they were Another monumental change in the market has been with
ganging up on some of their own. market makers. A market maker makes both sides of a
market; they must be willing to buy or sell any security they
Of course, retail traders hoped they’d be the ones selling make a market in. That’s their job.
the short hedge fund players the shares they’d bought to
I used to be a market maker on the floor of the Chicago
start the ball rolling, shares those hedge funds would have
Board Options Exchange in the early 1980s, and I was
to buy to cover their shorts.
a market maker in listed stocks when I ran a Wall Street
And that’s pretty much what happened. It was an epic short trading desk. Being a market maker entails taking big
squeeze, the likes of which has happened only a few times risks. These days, most of the market makers making
before in history, but never because retail traders were markets, especially to the millions of retail traders
instigators and beneficiaries. and investors in the market every day, aren’t humans.
They’re computers.
Now, here’s how the play worked, from an inside perspective,
which most retail traders don’t know or understand. They’re not emotional. They do their job mechanically.
To the computers, it’s simply about the math, what their
Monumental Market Changes electronic P&L (profit and loss) is at any given second and
what their risk exposure is.
and How the Party Started When computers sell call options they don’t own, they’re at
risk. If the prices of underlying shares rise, the calls they’ve
First, what’s known and understood is that the confluence sold become more valuable, increasing their exposure
of commission-free trading, retail traders and investors to losses. The more the underlying shares rise, the more
flooding the market, and social media are the headwaters of they’re losing by being short them.
change from which the epic short squeeze game is played.
Market makers, human or computer, don’t like to lose
Second, hedge funds and institutional money managers with money and don’t like doing nothing when potential losses
more than $100 million AUM (assets under management) mount, so they “hedge” their short call option positions.
3
They do that by buying the underlying stock, which, of That’s what happened to GameStop stock, to the benefit of
course, lifts the price of the stocks they’re exposed to. retail buyers of the stock and buyers of call options.
They don’t buy an equal amount of stock relative to the It’s the exact thing that happened to a bunch of big-name
short call options they’re exposed to; they buy an amount tech stocks in August last year when SoftBank bought
that mathematically corresponds to the “delta” of the billions of dollars’ worth of stock and then billions of
options they’ve sold short. dollars’ worth of call options on those same stocks.
Delta is a ratio. It’s sometimes referred to as a hedge ratio; Market makers were forced to delta hedge and then
it’s a measure of the difference between the change in the increase their buying of all the underlying stocks to offset
price of the underlying stock and the change in the price of rising gamma exposure, netting SoftBank possibly $10
the option. If the price of the underlying stock goes up (and billion in profits.
the market maker is short calls), the call option price will go
up by an amount that mathematically is called delta.
Welcome to the New
Market makers, meaning the computers, delta hedge
their short call options positions by buying shares of the Trading Game
underlying stock to maintain what’s known as a delta- What’s eventually going to happen to GameStop stock on
neutral position, thus limiting their exposure. the backside of this retail squeeze remains to be seen, but
Then there’s gamma. Delta is the change in the relationship I’m sure it won’t be pretty for those buyers who came late
between the option and the underlying, and gamma is the to the game.
change in delta. What happened to the hedge funds that were short
When the underlying price of the stock relative to a call GameStop and other stocks that got squeezed by retail is
option on that stock is rising, its volatility is rising and so another story for another time.
is the mathematical calculation of volatility of the call And what happened to Robinhood and the other brokerage
option. The increase in volatility translates to an increase in houses that had to stop their customers from buying more
gamma, which all said and done simply means the market shares of GameStop and other stocks is also another story
maker is at increasing risk. So they buy more shares of the for another time.
underlying stock to hedge their risk.
Now it’s time to play the new game.
And that helps lift the stock price.
We’re going to put on two new positions this month to take
Starting to see where this goes? advantage of the changes you now know have happened
and are happening.
It’s a positive feedback loop for the call buyers and long (long
means you own something) stockholders, and a nightmare And we’re going to be playing all the market changes and
for anyone short the stock or short call options. investor changes for a long, long time to come.
2020 stimulus checks Stock price drops Hedges profit off of shorts
4
Market and Investors before we add our remaining 50% only because of the
recent dust-up with GameStop Corp. (NYSE:GME) and
First and foremost, today’s investors, especially those Q: Could you give an update on your recommend-
just starting out, with limited capital, or with a sizeable ation from last September, TLT? Then it was
shopping list, can buy “fractional” shares. $162.50, but it has since headed for the hills. It is
Most brokerages let you buy a fraction of a share; for now below $152. Is it worth holding onto? – S.M.L.
example, AMZN is around $3,350 per share, but you can
A: TLT was a play on volatility and the election. If
things
buy $100 worth if you want. If AMZN goes up 20%, your
were going to get crazy (crazier than they were/are) and
$100 turns into $120: that’s brilliant! If your brokerage
the market was going to react, there would have been a
doesn’t offer fractional shares, switch to one that does.
“rush into Treasuries as a safe haven.” That’s what the
Now, because you can buy fractional shares, you shouldn’t TLT play was for.
be thinking about how many shares you can buy, you should That’s long past, and interest rates are ticking up faster than
be thinking how much capital you are going to apply to a lot of people expected, so TLT is headed south. I’d sell it
any position across your portfolio. That’s beautiful because here and take my loss (that should only be around 6%). But
professional money managers never think about shares; if you want to hold it, then I’d recommend selling calls
they think about capital allocation. against it to recoup some of your loss.
With fractional shares, you can and must now do the same
from now on. Let’s say you have $1,000, or $10,000, or Q: You’ve talked about how federal stimulus
$100,000, or $1 million, you divide up your capital into and government spending will be a major boon
equal chunks and apply a chunk to each position. for investors, but how do you think the high
The tougher question is how many chunks, how many unemployment rate the government is responding
stocks or positions, should you work with? My rule of to is going to affect the market, if at all? – Elliot M.
thumb is to NOT be too diversified if you’re investing (as
opposed to trading).
A: The unemployment rate isn’t going to affect the market
as long as we see stimulus money and then infrastructure
For a portfolio with a lot of capital, 15 to 20 positions are spending. Besides, unemployment, as a statistic or “metric,”
about right for most people. I’m more comfortable with hasn’t impacted the market in any meaningful way since
risk and my picks, so I prefer to be more concentrated in the 1970s, in my opinion.
6
Portfolio Review
Markets & Commodities 1/11/2021 to 2/5/2021 n Target Corporation (NSYE:TGT)
S&P 500 2.30% Oil (WTI Crude) 7.62% Solidified itself as a buy-and-hold stock early in 2020,
Dow 0.45% Gold -2.43% with its widespread implementation of curbside pickup
and same-day delivery. They went digital, holding their
n Allstate Corp. (NYSE:ALL) own against e-shopping giants like Amazon.com Inc.
(NasdaqGS:AMZN), but their recent announcements
Closed their $4 billion acquisition of National General showed that they won’t leave their brick-and-mortar stores
Holdings Corp. to grow their personal line’s insurance on in the dust. Instead, they chose to innovate for a post-
January 4, 2020, further making themselves one of the COVID future, working to breathe new life into them by
largest publicly held insurers that cover losses resulting the end of 2021 by partnering with makeup and skincare
from death, injury, or loss of property. With the acquisition, titan ULTA Beauty Inc. (NasdaqGS:ULTA). “Shop-
agents are able to offer more protection offerings and in-shop” destinations are in the works, meaning you
Allstate’s market share increased one percentage point. can expect prestige makeup brands to be sold in ULTA
Soon after the announcement, the value of their stock shot shops inside your local Target. Beauty products aside, this
up 3% and continues to be bullish.
further establishes Target was a one-stop shop for anything
and everything.
ALL Return since recommendation: 9.80%
ALL Yield: 2.02% TGT Return since recommendation: 61.37%
TGT Yield: 1.44%
n Walgreens Boot Alliance Inc. (NasdaqGS:WBA)
Has administered over one million vaccinations since the n Cadence Design Systems Inc. (NasdaqGS:CDNS)
approval of the COVID-19 vaccines developed by Pfizer
and Moderna. Over the span of one month, hundreds of Recently announced the acquisition plan of NUMECA
thousands of vulnerable people were able to get their first International to expand their system analysis capabilities.
and/or second dose of the vaccine, a rate which may improve Now computational fluid dynamics (CFD), or computing
with President Biden’s $20 billion vaccine distribution plan. that focuses wholly on the flow of liquids, and multiphysical
The market responded to the new president’s inauguration simulation have been added to Cadence’s extensive
and announcement of the plan with a 7% value spike in 24 portfolio. This allows the company to break into design for
hours, potentially triggering the current upward trend that aerospace, automotive, and marine technologies, expanding
is expected to continue as the vaccine rollout continues. their product offering and strengthening the stock.
WBA Return since recommendation: 34.21% CDNS Return since recommendation: 8.65%
WBA Yield: 3.75% CDNS Yield: N/A
Shah Gilani boasts a financial pedigree unlike any other. He ran his first hedge fund in 1982
from his seat on the floor of the Chicago Board Options Exchange. When options on the
Standard & Poor’s 100 began trading on March 11, 1983, Shah worked in “the pit” as a market
maker. He helped develop what has become known as the Volatility Index (VIX) – to this day
one of the most widely used indicators worldwide. Shah founded a second hedge fund in
1999, which he ran until 2003. Shah’s vast network of contacts includes the biggest players
on Wall Street and in international finance. Shah is a frequent guest on CNBC, Forbes,
and MarketWatch, and you can catch him every week on FOX Business’s Varney & Co.
Shah is also the editor of Straight Line Profits and Hyperdrive Portfolio, where he
offers subscribers even more moneymaking opportunities. For more information, call VIP
Services at 888.384.8339 or 443.353.4519.
7
THE MONEY MAP REPORT PORTFOLIO: 2/5/2021
Current Price Total Return* Stop Yield
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) $169.81 20.39% $146.00 N/A
Target Corp. (TGT) $188.86 61.37% $165.00 1.44%
Prudential Financial Inc. (PRU) $80.16 26.61% $70.00 5.32%
The Allstate Corp. (ALL) $106.92 9.80% $95.00 2.02%
Kimberly-Clark Corp. (KMB) $132.17 -0.75% $128.50 3.45%
NetApp (NTAP) $67.38 39.10% $58.75 2.85%
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (WBA) $49.81 34.32% $38.00 3.75%
The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) $293.50 36.97% $230.90 1.70%
Rio Tinto Group (RIO) $78.48 27.12% $71.00 4.92%
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) $70.01 35.67% $53.78 2.34%
Virtu Financial Inc. (VIRT) $27.64 -3.31% N/A 3.47%
PetMed Express Inc. (PETS) $34.79 3.43% N/A 3.22%
Synaptics Inc. (SYNA) $119.01 15.73% $81.00 N/A
Cadence Design Systems Inc. (CDNS) $135.80 6.74% $114.00 N/A
Renewable Energy Group Inc. (REGI) $98.68 42.87% $62.02 N/A
Lakeland Industries Inc. (LAKE) $36.50 9.42% $21.00 N/A
Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) $141.40 9.42% $21.00 N/A
Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) $195.31 9.42% $21.00 N/A
NetApp Inc. (NTAP) $67.38 61.06% $55.11 2.85%
SHAH’S S1 PORTFOLIO
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in this document. Publishing Team Investing Team
Publisher Bob Keppel Chief Investment Strategist Shah Gilani
Money Map Press expressly forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security
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