Performance Highlights: CMP '46 Target Price '60
Performance Highlights: CMP '46 Target Price '60
Performance Highlights: CMP '46 Target Price '60
NIIT
Performance Highlights
(` cr) Net revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) PAT 2QFY12 383.8 56.0 14.6 30.2 1QFY12 321.2 30.7 9.6 13.1 % chg (qoq) 19.5 82.0 501bp 129.5 2QFY11 345.8 53.2 15.4 28.5 % chg (yoy) 11.0 5.2 (80)bp 5.8
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Education 766 0.8 72/41 114,478 2 16,786 5,050 NIIT.BO
`46 `60
12 Months
For 2QFY2012, NIIT reported modest performance, which was in-line with our expectations. Revenue growth was driven by all businesses, but operational performance was dented due to the ILS business, which posted a 273bp yoy dip in EBITDA margin. The company will be getting US$75mn as net income from the divestment of Element K business, which the company will use to reduce its debt by `250cr. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Quarterly highlights: For 2QFY2012, NIIT reported consolidated revenue of `384cr, up 19.5% yoy. Revenue from ILS, SLS and CLS businesses increased by 11.9%, 12.4% and 9.6% yoy to `180.2cr, `40.5cr and `163.0cr, respectively. Blended EBITDA margin of NIIT improved by 501bp yoy to 14.6% on the back of margin expansion in SLS as well as CLS businesses. These gains in margins by the CLS and SLS businesses were partially overshadowed by margin decline in the ILS business and higher operating expenses due to facility overlap and some pre-operative expenses related to skill building solutions. Outlook and valuation: The hiring environment in the Indian IT sector is strengthening, as indicated by Indian IT players such as Infosys and TCS aiming to collectively hire ~1,05,000 people in FY2012. Thus, we expect ILS to record strong growth of 16% yoy in FY2012, with strengthening of the hiring environment expected to result in demand for vocational courses. NIIT is strategically moving towards turning asset light by targeting more annuity-based revenue. Management aims to do so by being selective in government SLS contracts, which are highly capital-intensive and have long debtor cycles (thus impacting returns), targeting more private schools in the SLS business. We have valued NIIT on an SOTP basis, arriving at a target EV/EBITDA of 3.5x on FY2013E consolidated EBITDA of `176.4cr, arriving at a target price of `60. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
NIIT@IN
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 34.0 10.4 28.5 27.2
3m
1yr
3yr
FY2009 1149 14.1 70 (7.7) 10.3 4.2 11.0 1.6 14.6 6.5 0.8 7.8
FY2010 1199 4.4 70 0.6 13.1 4.3 10.9 1.5 13.9 9.0 0.8 6.3
FY2011 1248 4.1 92 31.2 12.8 5.6 8.3 1.4 16.5 8.0 0.7 5.7
FY2012E 1184 (5.2) 91 (1.6) 13.6 5.5 8.4 1.0 11.9 9.1 0.4 3.0
FY2013E 1084 (8.5) 131 44.5 16.3 8.0 5.8 0.9 15.6 11.0 0.3 1.8
Srishti Anand
022-3935 7800 Ext: 6820 [email protected]
Ankita Somani
022-3935 7800 Ext: 6819 [email protected]
2QFY12 383.8 327.8 56.0 25.0 31.0 (9.2) 21.8 2.1 19.7 10.5 30.2 1.8 14.6 8.1 8.0
1QFY12 321.2 290.4 30.7 22.7 8.0 (6.4) 1.6 (1.3) 2.9 10.2 13.1 0.8 9.6 2.5 4.2
% chg (qoq) 19.5 12.9 82.0 10.1 285.0 1,226.2 (261.5) 568.4 129.5 128.8 501bp 556bp 387bp
2QFY11 345.8 292.6 53.2 21.6 31.6 (9.9) 21.7 3.7 18.0 10.5 28.5 1.7 15.4 9.1 8.5
% chg (yoy) 11.0 12.0 5.2 15.7 (2.1) 0.2 (43.2) 9.2 5.8 5.8 (80)bp (107)bp (44)bp
1HFY12 704.9 618.2 86.7 47.7 39.0 (15.6) 23.4 0.8 22.6 20.7 43.3 2.6 12.3 5.5 6.3
1HFY11 623.8 541.9 81.9 41.9 40.0 (17.3) 22.7 2.2 20.5 21.0 41.5 2.5 13.1 6.4 6.8
% chg (yoy) 13.0 14.1 5.8 13.8 (2.5) 3.0 (63.6) 10.2 4.3 4.3 (83)bp (88)bp (56)bp
(%)
17.2
10.6 (3.9)
(59.0) JAS10
JAS11
(100) ILS
Source: Company, Angel Research
SLS
CLS
Consolidated
(%)
46.6
47.0
JAS11
ILS: For 2QFY2012, revenue of the ILS business grew by 11.9% yoy to `180.2cr, with global enrollments growing by 5% yoy to 1,78,830; diploma enrollments, short-term modular enrollment and career IT enrollments increasing by 7%, 11% and 4% yoy, respectively; and a strong surge witnessed in banking enrollments. Also, placements continued to be strong, especially for the IT and banking sectors, posting combined growth of 15% yoy. The pending order book of this segment currently stands at `145.2cr, with 70% of it being executable in the next 12 months. Also, cloud campus (new initiative by NIIT) was implemented in over 190 centers. EBITDA margin of this segment declined by 273bp yoy to 20.8% during the quarter.
12
Nos.
120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 AMJ10 JAS 10 OND 10 JFM 11 AMJ11 JAS11
Enrollment
Source: Company, Angel Research
SLS: Revenue of the SLS business grew by 12.4% yoy to `40.5 in 2QFY2012. During the quarter, the company added 133 private schools. Revenue from non-government schools grew by 24% yoy and now contributes 46% to total SLS revenue. The pending order book of this segment stands at `471.8cr, with 31% being executable in the next 12 months. For 2QFY2012, EBITDA margin of the business improved by 472bp yoy to 11.6%.
CLS: Revenue of the CLS business grew by 9.6% yoy to `163.0cr on the back of robust volume growth of 14.0% yoy, driven by growth in managed training services (62% yoy) and online learning products. Unfavorable cross-currency movement impacted revenue of the CLS business by `6.0cr (~4% yoy). Order intake during the quarter stood at US$25.4mn, with the pending order book standing at US$27.9mn, of which 62% is executable over the next 12 months. EBITDA margin of the CLS segment increased by 103bp yoy to 9.39% on account of strong traction from managed services contacts. Unfavorable cross-currency movement negatively affected the segments EBITDA margin by `1.1cr (67bp yoy).
(%)
140,000
13.0
12.0
14.0
(%)
AMJ10
JAS 10
OND 10
JFM 11
AMJ 11
JAS 11
Consolidated margin declines: Blended EBITDA margin of NIIT improved by 501bp yoy to 14.6% on the back of margin expansion in SLS as well as CLS businesses. These gains in margins were partially overshadowed by the margin decline in the ILS business and higher operating expenses due to facility overlap and some pre-operative expenses related to skill building solutions.
23.5 20.8
14.6
14 10 6 JAS09
ILS
Source: Company, Angel Research
SLS
JAS10 CLS
JAS11 Consolidated
FY2009 432 22.9 79 18.3 138 36.7 21 15.5 579 5.0 18 3.2 1,149 14.1 119 10.3
FY2010 457 7.4 83 18.2 200 44.6 30 14.8 542 (6.3) 44 8.1 1,199 4.4 157 13.1
FY2011 517 9.5 95 18.4 148 (26.0) 17 11.4 584 7.6 47 8.1 1,248 4.1 159 12.8
FY2012E 594 15.0 104 17.6 166 11.8 18 10.9 424 (27.3) 38 9.0 1,184 (5.2) 161 13.6
FY2013E 669 12.7 134 20.1 189 14.0 20 10.8 225 (46.9) 22 9.6 1,084 (8.5) 176 16.3
(` cr)
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Jul-11
3
EV
Source: Company, Angel Research
16
13
Oct-11
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
10
11
12
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BVPS Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS Cash EPS Dividend Book value Dupont analysis Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) EBIT margin (EBIT/sales) Asset turnover ratio (sales/assets) Leverage ratio (assets/equity) Operating ROE Return ratios (%) RoCE (pre-tax) Angel RoIC RoE Turnover ratios(x) Asset turnover (fixed assets) Receivables days Payable days 2.0 79 76 2.2 96 79 2.3 107 75 4.3 103 70 4.6 97 70 6.5 9.2 14.6 9.0 12.1 13.9 8.0 11.4 16.5 9.1 17.9 11.9 11.0 28.2 15.6 0.8 0.9 0.0 1.4 1.7 8.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.3 1.8 7.5 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.3 1.7 8.4 0.7 0.9 0.1 1.4 1.1 6.3 0.7 1.2 0.1 1.2 1.1 9.6 4.2 8.2 1.3 29.0 4.3 8.8 1.4 30.6 5.6 10.8 1.6 33.8 5.5 10.4 1.9 46.2 8.0 12.4 2.6 51.1 11.0 5.7 1.6 2.8 0.8 7.8 1.1 10.9 5.3 1.5 3.0 0.8 6.3 1.1 8.3 4.3 1.4 3.3 0.7 5.7 1.0 8.4 4.5 1.0 4.1 0.4 3.0 0.6 5.8 3.7 0.9 5.6 0.3 1.8 0.3 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
13
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
NIIT Ltd No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
14