UNIVERSITY OF MALTA
FACULTY OF SCIENCE
Department of Statistics & Operations Research
January/February 2020 Examination Session
SOR1211 – PROBABILITY Monday 3rd February 2020
Time of Examination: 14:30 – 16:05
Attempt any number of questions, each question carries 28 marks.
Aids allowed: calculator and computer provided. Statistical formulae booklet for non-
statistics students can be found in Q:\Statistics Booklets
Do not use your personal UM IT account. Log in the computer using the Username and
Password provided. Log off when the examination is over.
You may perform workings using your desired software application. Remember to frequently
save any temporary workings in Z:\Exam to safeguard your progress.
Note: The content of the Z:\Exam folder is NOT collected by the examiner and will not be
assessed.
Answers obtained by computer software should be written on the script together with any
relevant working.
Answers should be given to 2 decimal places where appropriate.
1. a. Given that A, B and C are independent events, prove that:
i. P A ' B C P A ' P B P C . [3 marks]
ii. P A B ' C ' P A P B ' P C ' . [4 marks]
b. Anthony and Bernard play a game by tossing a die twice. Anyone who gets a double six wins
the game. Anthony plays first followed by Bernard. Find the probability that Anthony wins
the game. [5 marks]
c. In the Super Five lottery 5 numbers are drawn without replacement from a total of 45 distinct
numbers. Find the probability of guessing at least three of the five numbers drawn. [4 marks]
d. Let events B1 , B2 ,..., Bk constitute a partition of the sample space S, then for any event A
in S, prove that:
P Br P A Br
P Br A k [7 marks]
P Bi P A Bi
i 1
e. Three machines X, Y and Z respectively manufacture 20%, 50% and 30% of the total output of
capacitors. The probability that a capacitor is defective is 0.01 given that it is produced by X;
SOR1211 – JAN/FEB 2020 – L.CAMILLERI Page 1 of 3
0.04 given that it is produced by Y, and 0.06 given that it is produced by Z. If a capacitor is
picked at random, find the probability that:
i. it is manufactured by Y given that it is defective. [2 marks]
ii. it is manufactured by X or Z given that it is not defective. [3 marks]
2. a. A continuous random variable X has probability density function f x . Show that:
i. E aX b aE X b . [3 marks]
ii. Var aX b a Var X .
2
[3 marks]
b. A discrete random variable X is defined as ‘the number of heads obtained when three fair
coins are tossed simultaneously’.
i. Write out the probability mass function P X x . [3 marks]
ii. Write out the cumulative distribution function P X x . [2 marks]
iii. Find E X . [2 marks]
iv. Find Var X . [3 marks]
c. The density function of a continuous random variable X is given by:
f x k e0.1x for 0 x 2
Find
i. the value of k. [2 marks]
ii. the cumulative distribution function F ( x) . [2 marks]
iii. the median of X . [2 marks]
iv. P(0.5 X 1.5) . [2 marks]
v. E ( X ) . [4 marks]
3. a. The discrete variable X has a Geometric distribution with parameter p and probability mass
function P X x p 1 p .
x 1
i. Show that P X x 1.
x 1
[2 marks]
1 1 p
ii Show that E X and Var X 2 . [8 marks]
p p
iii. Find the range of values of p for which Var X 5 . [3 marks]
b. It is known that on average a bank receives 6 bad cheques per day.
i. Explain why the number of bad cheques received by the bank per day has an approximate
Poisson distribution. [3 marks]
ii. Find the probability that less than 5 bad cheques are received on one day. [3 marks]
iii. Find the probability that more than 17 bad cheques are received on three days. [3 marks]
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c. A company has five telephone operators. The number of busy telephone operators is a
random variable having a binomial distribution, and the probability that a telephone operator
is busy with an incoming call at any time of the day is 0.35. Find the probability that an
incoming call finds:
i. all of the telephone operators are busy. [2 marks]
ii. less than 4 telephone operators are busy. [2 marks]
iii. more than 2 telephone operators are busy. [2 marks]
4. a. The probability density function of a continuous random variable X is given by:
1
2 x
2
1
f ( x) e 2
for x , and 0.
2 2
/2 2
e y dy 2 , show that:
2
Given that
i. E[ X ] . [4 marks]
ii. Var[ X ] . 2
[6 marks]
b. In the region around a geological fault line, the time between aftershocks that follow a major
earthquake is a random variable having an exponential distribution with mean 36 hours. Find
the probabilities that the time between successive aftershocks will be:
i. less than 18 hours. [2 marks]
ii. more than 72 hours. [2 marks]
iii. between 40 hours and 100 hours. [2 marks]
c. The weights and heights of a group of students are each independent and has an approximate
normal distribution with means 55kg and 140cm and standard deviations of 7kg and 8cm.
Find the probability that a student chosen at random will have:
i. a weight greater than 60kg. [2 marks]
ii. a height greater than 150cm. [2 marks]
iii. both a weight greater than 60kg and a height greater than 150cm. [2 marks]
d. Use the normal approximation to the binomial distribution to determine the probability of
getting more than 32 sixes in 180 tosses of a fair die. [6 marks]
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