CHAPTER 2 SMQ27103:

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
SEM 2 2021,2022 1
OUTLINE CHAPTER 2
2.1 Introduction to Probability
2.2 Basic Concepts of Probability
2.3 Probability Distributions
WEEK 4
2.4 Discrete Probability Distributions
Binomial Probability Distribution
Poisson Probability Distribution
Poisson Approximation of Binomial Distribution WEEKPart
52
2.5 Continuous Probability Distribution
Normal Probability Distribution
Standard Normal Probability Distribution WEEK
Part 7

Normal Approximation of Binomial and Poisson Distribution

 WEEK 4
2.1 Introduction to Probability
2.2 Basic Concepts of Probability
Learning outcome:
- Able to define random experiment, outcome, sample space, event,
concept, types & rules of probability

2.3 Probability Distributions

Learning outcome:
- Able to identify whether a random variable is discrete or continuous.
- Able to apply the probability distribution of binomial discrete random
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variable using excel
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Numerical description of the chance of an
Probability event to occur and quantified as a number
between 0 and 1

Use to

Quantify likelihood or chance of an event

Calculate uncertainty or risk in engineering applications
Interpret as long-term relative frequency or degree of believe

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 Why probability is 5
important?
1. The foundation to statistical inference.
2. To quantify the likelihood/chance of an event.
3. To calculate uncertain/risk of an event.

Probability distribution
allows us to make
statement about a
random variable.

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What is the probability What is the chance

of a machine will of surviving in an
produce defective items operation?
during warranty period?

What is the
probability of 15
customers will
arrive at bank in
the next hour?

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• Experiment (process or activity) where
all possible outcomes cannot be
predicted or uncertain ahead of time.
Random Experiment • Can result in different outcomes, even
though it is repeated in the same
manner every time.

Outcome • Possible result of an experiment

• An outcome or outcomes of a process

Event whose probability is being calculated.

Sample Space • The set of all possible outcomes

Sets • Collection of elements or components

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Random Outcome Sample Space Event

Experiment

Select a student Male, female S={Male, Female} P{Female}

Answer True/False True, false S = {True, False} P{True}

questions

Toss two coins Head-Head, Head- S = {Head-Head, A: Both get head

Tail, Tail-Tail, Tail- Head-Tail, Tail-Tail, B: Both get tail
Head Tail-Head}

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 EXAMPLE 1 9

Suppose that three items are selected at random from a

manufacturing process.

Each item is inspected and classified defective, D, or no defective,

N.

List down the elements of sample space.

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 EXERCISE 1 10

An engineering firm is hired to determine if certain waterways in

Virginia are safe for fishing. Samples are taken from three rivers.

i. List the elements of a sample space S, using the letters F for "safe to fish"
and N for "not safe to fish."
ii. List the elements of S corresponding to event E that at least two of the
rivers are safe for fishing.
iii. Define an event that has as its elements the points {FFF, NFF, FFN, NFN}

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TYPE OF PROBABILITY

•Classical Probability
•Empirical Probability

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 CLASSICAL PROBABILITY 12

❖ Assumes all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to

occur.

❖ Outcomes not from experiment.

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝐸 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟 𝑛 𝐸

𝑃 𝐸 = =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑛 𝑆

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 EXAMPLE 2 13
If a family has three children, find the probability that at
least 2 of the children are girls.

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 EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY 14

❖ Likely of an event estimated by repeating the experiments (in large

number of times) and observing the outcomes.

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝐸 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟 𝑓

𝑃 𝐸 = =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑛

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 EXAMPLE 3 15

In a sample of 50 people from District A, 21 have type A blood,

22 have type B blood, 5 have type O blood, and 2 have type AB
blood.
Set up a frequency distribution table and find the following
probabilities.
a) A person has type O blood.
b) A person does not have type AB blood.

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 PROBABILITY RULES 16

Probability Rule 1:
The probability of any event E is a number (either a fraction
or decimal) between and including 0 and 1. This is denoted
by:
0  P( E )  1
probabilities cannot be negative or
greater than 1.

Probability Rule 2:
If an event E cannot occur (i.e., the event contains no members in the
sample space), its probability is 0.

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Probability Rule 3:
If an event E is certain, then the probability of E is 1.

Probability Rule 4:
The sum of the probabilities of the outcomes in the sample space is 1.

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Range of probability

A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event.

A probability around 0.5 indicates and event is neither unlikely
nor likely event.
A probability near 1 indicates a likely event.

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 EXAMPLE 4 19

A factory manufactures DVDs. Batches of DVDs are randomly selected. The

number of defects X for each batch is observed and the following distribution is
obtained.

X 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(X=x) 0.502 0.365 𝛼 0.023 0.011 0.001

Find the value of 𝛼 for the given probability distribution.

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Probability
Distribution

Discrete Continuous
Probability Probability
Distribution Distribution

Binomial Poisson Normal

Distribution Distribution Distribution

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 21

SAMPLE

Variable (X)

Random
Variable

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 TYPES OF RANDOM VARIABLES 22

Discrete Assume only a Continuous

Random Random Takes any value at any
countable
Variables Variables point along an interval.
number of
values, 0, 1, 2, Comes from data that
etc. can be measured rather
than counted

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 DISCRETE OF RANDOM VARIABLES 24

 Let X be a discrete random variable and P(X=x)

is read as ‘probability of X exactly equal to x’.

 Requirements for a discrete probability

distribution:
1) The probability of each value of the discrete random variable
is between 0 and 1, inclusive. That is, 0  P( X = x)  1
2) The sum of all the probabilities is 1. That is,  P( X = x) = 1
xS

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DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

• Binomial Probability Distribution
• Poisson Probability Distribution
• Poisson Approximation of Binomial Probability
Distribution

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 BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION 26

An experiment in which satisfied the following characteristic is called a

binomial experiment:
1. The random experiment consists of n identical trials.

2. Each trial can result in one of two outcomes, which we denote by

success, S or failure, F.

3. The trials are independent.

4. The probability of success is constant from trial to trial.

We denote the probability of success by p and the probability of failure
is equal to (1 - p) = q.
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 EXAMPLES OF BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION 27

❖ Tossing a coin (Result=Head/tail)

❖ You sell sandwiches. 70% of people choose chicken, the
rest choose something else.
(Result=choose chicken/choose something else)
❖ Your company makes sports bikes. 90% pass final
inspection (and 10% fail and need to be fixed).
(Result=pass final inspection/fail)

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 1) Calculate probability using formula 29

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 PHRASE PROBABILITY FORM
AT MOST 12
12 OR LESS P( X  12) 30
NOT MORE THAN 12
AT LEAST 12
12 OR MORE P( X  12)
NOT LESS THAN 12
MORE THAN 12
LARGER THAN 12
P( X  12)
EXACTLY 12
P( X = 12)
FEWER THAN 12
BELOW 12
P( X  12)
LESS THAN 12
BETWEEN 9 TO 12 P(9  x  12)

FROM 9 TO 12 P(9  X  12)

BETWEEN 9 AND 12 P(9  X  12)

FROM 9 AND 12 P(9  X  12)

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 1) Calculate probability using formula 31

A binomial experiment consist of n identical trial with probability

of success, p in each trial.

The probability of x success in n trials

is given by
n− x
P( X = x) = Cx p q
n x
; x = 0,1, 2....n

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 1) Calculate probability using formula 32

The Mean and Variance of X if X ~ B(n,p) are

Mean :  = E ( X ) = np

Variance :  2 = V ( X ) = np(1 − p) = npq

Std Deviation :  = npq

where n is the total number of trials, p is the probability of

success and q is the probability of failure.

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 EXAMPLE 5 33

Given that X ~ B (12, 0.4 )

a) P ( X = 2 )
b) P ( X = 4 )
c) E ( X )
d) Var ( X )

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 2) Calculate probability using table (p ≤ 𝟎. 𝟓) 34
❑ When the sample is relatively large, tables of Binomial are often
used.
❑ Since the probabilities provided in the tables are in the cumulative
form P( X  k) , the following guidelines can be used:

a) P( X = x) = P( X  x) − P( X  x − 1)
b) P ( X  x ) = P ( X  x )
c) P( X  x) = P( X  x − 1)
d ) P( X  x) = P( X  x + 1) = 1 − P( X  x)
e) P( X  x) = 1 − P( X  x − 1)
f ) P( x1  X  x2 ) = P( X  x2 ) − P( X  x1 − 1)
g ) P( x1  X  x2 ) = P( X  x2 − 1) − P( X  x1 )

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Cumulative Binomial Probabilities

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 EXAMPLE 6 36

Let X be a Binomial random variable with parameters n = 20, p =

0.4. By using cumulative binomial distribution table, find :

a) 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 14)
b) 𝑃(𝑋 > 10)
c) 𝑃(𝑋 = 2)

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 EXAMPLE 6 37

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 Steps to solve “problem solving question”
38

• State their X , random variable – depend on question

1 • Eg: X: number of student get A in statistics

• Take all information in question – value for n,p (probability

2 of a success).

• State the BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION X ~ B ( n, p )

3

• Make a calculation using the suitable method

4 • Using manual (formula) or using table statistics.

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 EXAMPLE 7 39

The probability that a boards purchased by a cabinet

manufacturer are unusable for building cabinets is 0.10.
The cabinet manufacturer bought eleven boards, what is the
probability that
i. Four or more of the eleven boards are unusable for
building cabinets?
ii. At most two of the eleven boards are unusable for
building cabinets?
iii. None of the eleven boards are unusable for building
cabinets?

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 EXAMPLE 7 40
X : the number of unusable boards
n = 11, p = 0.1
X ~ B (11, 0.10 )

i ) P ( X  4 ) = 1 − P ( X  3) Thus, there is 1.85% that four

= 1 − 0.9815 or more of the eleven boards
are unusable for building
= 0.0185 cabinets
Thus, there is 91.04% at most
ii) P ( X  2 ) = 0.9104 two of the eleven boards are
unusable for building cabinets

iii) P ( X = 0 ) = 0.3138 Thus, there is 31.38% none

of the eleven boards are
unusable for building cabinets

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 EXERCISE 2 41

In Kuala Lumpur, 30% of workers take public transportation

daily. In a sample of 10 workers,
I. What is the probability that exactly three workers take
public transportation daily?
II. What is the probability that at least three workers did not
take public transportation daily?
III. Calculate the standard deviation of this distribution.

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 3) Calculate probability using table (p > 𝟎. 𝟓) 42

Scenario 1: Calculate P ( X  k )
P ( X  k ) = P (Y  n − k )

Scenario 2: Calculate P ( X  k )
P ( X  k ) = P (Y  n − k ) = 1 − P (Y  n − k − 1)

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 EXAMPLE 8 43

According to National Centre for Health Statistics in Vital Statistics

of Malaysia, there is about 80% chance that a person age 20 will
be alive at age 65.
Suppose 10 people at age 20 are selected at random, find the
probability that at least 8 people will be alive at age 65.

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 EXAMPLE 8 44
According to National Centre for Health Statistics in Vital Statistics
of Malaysia, there is about 80% chance that a person age 20 will
be alive at age 65. Suppose 10 people at age 20 are selected at
random, find the probability that at least 8 people will be alive at
age 65.
X : The number of people age 20 who will be alive at age 65

X ~ B (10, 0.80 )

Y : The number of people age 20 who will not be alive at age 65

Y ~ B (10, 0.20 )

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 EXAMPLE 8 45
Y : The number of people age 20 who will not be alive at age 65

Y ~ B (10, 0.20 )
P ( X  8 ) = P (Y  10 − 8 )

= P (Y  2 )

= 0.6778
Thus, the probability that at least 8 people will be alive
at age 65 is 0.6778 or approximately 68%.

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 4) Calculate probability using excel 46

We will be using Microsoft excel for the following topics:

1) Calculate the probability of binomial distribution (mass function,

cumulative function)
2) Calculate the probability of binomial distribution using the distribution
table
3) Create binomial probability distribution histogram
4) The effect of n and p on the shape of binomial probability distribution

Refer Excel Worksheet Week 4

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 4) Calculate probability using excel 47

Example 2.9 (page 57 in textbook)

A large industry firm allows a discount on any invoice paid within 30 days. Of all invoices,
10% received a discount. In the company audit, 12 invoices are randomly selected and
independent of each other.

i) Define the random variable X and write its distribution.

ii) What is the probability that exactly 4 invoices in the sample receive a discount?
iii) What is the probability that fewer than 4 invoices in the sample receive a discount?
iv) What is the probability that at most 4 invoices in the sample receive a discount?
v) What is the probability that more than 4 invoices in the sample receive a discount?
vi) What is the probability that at least 4 invoices in the sample receive a discount?

Refer Excel Worksheet Week 4

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