SMQ27103/EQT271 (WEEK 5)

CHAPTER 2 :
POISSON PROBABILITY
SEM 2 2021,2022
DISTRIBUTION 1
OUTLINE CHAPTER 2
2.1 Introduction to Probability
2.2 Basic Concepts of Probability
2.3 Probability Distributions
WEEK 4
2.4 Discrete Probability Distributions
Binomial Probability Distribution
Poisson Probability Distribution
Poisson Approximation of Binomial Distribution WEEKPart
52
2.5 Continuous Probability Distribution
Normal Probability Distribution
Standard Normal Probability Distribution WEEK
Part 7

Normal Approximation of Binomial and Poisson Distribution

 WEEK 5
2.4 POISSON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Learning outcome:
Able to apply the probability of Poisson discrete distribution using
excel.

2.5 POISSON APPROXIMATION OF BINOMIAL

Learning outcome:
Able to apply Poisson approximation to binomial probability problem.

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 4
Probability Distribution

1) Introduction
Binomial Distribution 2) MCT and MD of distribution
Discrete Probability 3) Calculate the probability
Distribution - Using formula
- Using cumulative table
Poisson Distribution
- Using Excel

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 5
1) Introduction

Poisson probability distribution

The probability distribution of the number of successes, X occurs in a specified time

interval or space.

Characteristics:
The experiments count the number of occurrences of an event over some interval.
The number of occurrences in one interval must be independent of other intervals.
No limits on the number of occurrences in an interval.
The probability of the event occurring is the same for each interval.
The average number of occurrences in an interval is known.

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 6
Examples of Poisson random variable:

Number of cars passing a toll booth in one hour.

Number of defects in a square meter of fabric.
Number of network errors experienced in a day.
Number of website visitors in 30 seconds.
Number of customers between 9 am to 5 pm.
Number of plants growing per acre.

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 7
Identify the Poisson distribution from the following:

1)

2)

3)

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SOLUTION
8
Identify the Poisson distribution from the following:

1)

2)

3)

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 9
A random variable X having a Poisson distribution can also be written
as
λ is average number of
events occur in a
𝑋 ∼ 𝑃𝑜 (𝜆) specified time / space

2) MCT and MD

Mean of X : E( X ) = 
Variance of X : Var ( X ) = 
Standard deviation of X : Var(X ) = 

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 3) Calculate probability using formula 10

A random variable X has a Poisson distribution and it is referred to as

a Poisson random variable if and only if its probability distribution is
given by
λ is average number of
events occur in a
specified time / space
−
e  x
P( X = x) = for x = 0,1, 2,3,...
x!

SEM 2 2021,2022
 3) Calculate probability using table 11

Cumulative Poisson Probabilities

(Textbook) Appendix: Table III Cumulative Poisson Probabilities

x
e−   r
P( X  x) = 
r =0 r!

SEM 2 2021,2022
 EXAMPLE 1 12

Consider a Poisson random variable with mean equal to three.

Calculate the following probabilities :
i. Write the distribution of Poisson
ii. P(X=0)
iii. P(X=1)
iv. P(X >1)

SEM 2 2021,2022
 SOLUTION
13

i ) X ~ P0 ( 3)
−3
e 3 0
ii ) P ( X = 0 ) = = 0.0498
0!
−3
e 3 1
iii ) P ( X = 1) = = 0.1494
1!
iv) P ( X  1) = 1 −  P ( X = 0 ) + P ( X = 1) 
= 1 − ( 0.0498 + 0.1494 )
= 0.8008
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 RULES TO SOLVE “PROBLEM SOLVING QUESTION”
14
• State their X , random variable – depend on question
1 • Eg: X: Number of cars passing a toll booth in one hour.

• Take all information in question – value for λ, x

2

• State the POISSON DISTRIBUTION, 𝑋 ∼ 𝑃𝑜 (𝜆)

3

• Calculate the answer and interpret.

4

SEM 2 2021,2022
 EXAMPLE 2 15
Suppose that the average number of cars arriving in a 15-minute
period time is 10 cars.
Find the probability that exactly 5 arrivals in 15-minutes.

SOLUTION

Suppose that the average number of cars arriving in a 15-minute

period time is 10 cars.
Find the probability that exactly 5 arrivals in 15-minutes.

SEM 2 2021,2022
SOLUTION X : The number of cars arriving in 15-minute
16
 =10, X ~ P0 (10 )
e −10105
FORMULA P ( X = 5) =
5!
e−   x
P( X = x) =
x! = 0.0378

TABLE

Thus, there is less than 4% chance that exactly 5 arrivals in 15 minutes

SEM 2 2021,2022
 EXAMPLE 3 17

The average number of traffic accidents on a particular section of the

highway is two per week. Assume that the number of accidents follows a
Poisson distribution with mean is 2.

i) Find the probability of no accidents on this section of highway during a 1-

week period
ii) Find the probability of three accidents on this section of highway during a
2-week period.

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SOLUTION
18
i) Find the probability of no accidents on this section of highway during a 1-week
period.
X: the number of accident in a week
Average number of accident per week = 2 (λ = 2)

X ~ P0 ( 2 )
e −2  20
P ( X = 0) = = 0.1353
0!

There is 13.53% chance that no accident in this section of highway during

a 1-week period.

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ii) Find the probability of three accidents on this section of highway 19
during a 2-week period.
Let Y = the number of accident in 2-week

Average number of accident for one week = 2

Average number of accident for 2 weeks = 2(2) =4 (λ = 4)

Y ~ P0 ( 4 )
e −4  43
P (Y = 3) = = 0.1954
3!

There is 19.54% chance that there are three accidents in this section of highway
during a 2-weeks period.

SEM 2 2021,2022
 EXERCISE 1 20

Phone calls are received at the rate of 48 per hour at the reservation desk
for Regional Airways.

i) Find the probability of receiving three calls in 5-minute intervals.

i) Find the probability of receiving exactly 10 calls in 15-minute

intervals.

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SOLUTION
21
Phone calls are received at the rate of 48 per hour at the reservation desk for Regional Airways.

i) Find the probability of receiving three calls in 5-minute intervals.

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SOLUTION
22
Phone calls are received at the rate of 48 per hour at the reservation desk for Regional Airways.

ii) Find the probability of receiving exactly 10 calls in 15-minute intervals.

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 23

• The Poisson distribution is suitable as an approximation of Binomial

probabilities when n is large, and p is small.

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 X ~ B ( n, p ) 24

RULES
1. n  30
2. np  5 or nq  5

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X ~ P0 (np)
 EXAMPLE 4 25

Given that X~B(1000,0.004), find :

i) P(X=7)
ii) P(X<9)

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SOLUTION
26
X ~ B (1000, 0.004 )
n = 1000  30
np = 1000 ( 0.004 ) = 4  5

 X ~ P0 ( 4 )

e −4  47 b) P ( X  9 ) = P ( X  8 )
a) P ( X = 7 ) =
7!
= 0.0595
= 0.9786

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 EXAMPLE 5 27

Based upon experience, 1% of the telephone bills mailed to

households are incorrect.

If a sample of 50 bills is selected, find the probability that at

least one bill will be incorrect.

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SOLUTION
28
Based upon experience, 1% of the telephone bills mailed to households are incorrect.

If a sample of 50 bills is selected, find the probability that at least one bill will be
incorrect.

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 EXERCISE 2 29
A furniture manufacturer ordered a stack of plywoods with a specific
measurement from a supplier. Suppose that 0.03% of the plywoods
received were unfit to use.
Let X represents number of unfit plywoods.

In a random sample of 10 000, calculate:

i. P(X = 3)
ii. P(X ≤ 2)
iii. P (1≤ X <4)
iv. E(X) and Var (X). How would you interpret the mean and variance?

SEM 2 2021,2022
SOLUTION
30
A furniture manufacturer ordered a stack of plywoods with a specific measurement from a supplier. Suppose that 0.03% of the plywoods received
were unfit to use.
Let X represents number of unfit plywoods.

In a random sample of 10 000, calculate:

i. P(X = 3)
ii. P(X ≤ 2)
iii. P (1≤ X <4)
iv. E(X) and Var (X). How would you interpret the mean and variance?

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 4) Calculate probability using excel 31

The Excel POISSON.DIST function is used to calculate the probability of a Poisson random variable.

Refer Excel Worksheet Week 5

SEM 2 2021,2022