ABSTRACT

Concerning the quality of life and the wellbeing of the general public, the Urban Heat Island (UHI)
phenomenon has progressively become a significant matter. Several prominent cities worldwide
are presently encountering the UHI phenomenon, which happens when urban regions have
elevated air and surface temperatures in comparison to their surrounding rural and peri-urban
areas. For instance, in Greater Monrovia District, rapid urbanization and related LULC change
have led to the creation of UHI effect. However, studies demonstrating the contributions that
Urban Green Infrastructure (UGI) can make in reducing LST towards mitigating urban heat island
effect in Greater Monrovia District are still lacking. In this regard, the study aimed to assess the
role that UGI has played in mitigating UHI in Greater Monrovia District, Liberia for the period
1991-2020, by determining the trends of LULC in Greater Monrovia District, evaluating the link
between LULC and LST in Greater Monrovia District, and examining the consequences of the
relationship between LST and LULC on UHI in Greater Monrovia District. To this effect, a
geospatial analysis was conducted using Landsat images for study area, for 1991-2020. Using
ArcGIS software, the images were cropped, pre-processed, enhanced, and colour composited
followed by LULC classification, extraction of LULC classes and generation of LULC maps.
Additionally, LST was retrieved, NDVI and Emissivity calculated and LST maps created.
Thereafter, threshold temperatures were estimated and intensity of UHI calculated by subtracting
the LST of the least urbanized reference area (vegetated) from that of the UHI area. The results of
this analysis showed that; there has been significant increase in built-up areas from 14.6% in 1991
to 36.1 in 2020, while other LULC classes have reduced in size; bare land from 90% in 1991 to
0% in 2020, shrubland from 49.2% in 1991 to 8.3% in 2020, mangroves from 26.3% in 1991 to
18.5 in 2020 and waterbodies from 32.5% in 1991 to 27.5%. Notably, grassland recorded a slight
increase from 17.5% in 1991 to 18.7% in 2020. This could be attributed to the decrease in
shrubland. The results also show that the built-up areas have higher mean LST (420C) as compared
to land areas under vegetation (shrubland 370C, grassland 350C and mangroves 330C) and
waterbodies (300C). Moreover, the vegetation index negatively correlated with LST,
demonstrating the role of UGI in mitigating UHI by providing the cooling effect. The built-index
on the other hand, positively correlated with LST pointing to the contribution of built-up areas to
UHI effect by raising LST. The study concluded that, the conversion of natural and semi-natural
lands into impervious surfaces have led to the rise in LST and formation of UHI, and therefore

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recommends the development of UGI within the study areas to mitigate UHI effect. The study also
recommends the adoption and implementation of urban planning policies promoting the
development of UGI in every development project.

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1.1 Background of the Study
In recent times, there has been a rapid increase in urbanization across the globe (Leeson, 2018;
Sun et al. 2020; Jarah et al. 2019). This has been largely linked to economic demands which has
seen rapid increase in urban population as more people migrate to the urban areas from rural areas
(United Nations, 2020). Notably, the increase in urban populations has led to the continued growth
of infrastructures, economy and social amenities of urban areas (ibid). A technical report published
by World Bank in 2022, indicates that: 50% of world population which represents resides in urban
areas today. Furthermore, World Bank projected in this report that by 2045 the global urban
population will grow by 50% to 6 billion (World Bank, 2022). The developing countries just like
their developed counterparts have also experienced increased urbanization, and Liberia is no
exception. Notably, urban population growth in Liberia for the year 2021 was reported at 3.3%
(World Bank, 2018).

While urbanization has been contributed to by expansion of urban population, rapid and sustained
urban population influx and growth has caused Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes in the
urban areas (Du et al. 2019; Zhou et al. 2021; Zungu, 2018). Xu et al. (2019) stated that rapid
growth of urban areas has resulted in the substitution of semi-natural and natural land covers with
built-areas. This has been attributed to an increasing number of people that require land for
settlement and infrastructural development, such as the construction of paved surfaces and roads.
As a result, the disintegration and fragmentation of natural and semi-natural environments have
transformed urban areas into new ecosystems, where man-made obstructions and built-areas (e.g.,
roads, buildings, and grey areas) are interspersed with small, isolated green spaces (Lerman et al.
2020), thus, causing significant effects to the urban environment with respect to loss of ecosystem
services and loss of biodiversity, which eventually affects human well-being (Zambrano et al.
2019). In addition, as Liang et al. (2019) note, rapid urbanization has led to increased air pollution
and increased solid waste generation.

It should be noted that, conversion of natural greenery area to impervious surfaces due to
urbanization normally cause rural/urban ecological and micro-climatic imbalance (Kafy et al.
2021; Sodoudi et al. n.d.). For example, roads, commercial and residential buildings, concrete

1
structures, pavements among others, reduce urban vegetative cover hence contributing to Urban
Heat Island (UHI) effect (Zhou & Chen, 2018; Vujovic et al. 2021; Cheela et al. 2021). As an
example, Odindi et al. (2015) explain that impervious surfaces absorb and hold more solar
radiation, preventing the loss of long-wave sky radiation during clear solar heating. In addition,
the uneven urban terrain hinders wind movement, leading to reduced convective heat loss, while
decreased vegetation index and thermal inertia constrain heat loss from latent heat flux (ibid). All
these factors work together to cause the emergence of the UHI phenomenon. Westendorff, (2020)
and Carpio et al. (2020) describe UHI as a complex phenomenon that occurs in cities around the
world.

Generally, UHI occurs when the heat absorbed by the impervious surfaces during the day is
retained and slowly released during the night (Athukorala & Murayama, 2021; Westendorff, 2020;
Monteiro et al. 2020). The microclimatic conditions within the urban landscapes due to UHI affect
plant growth, energy consumption, air quality, animal life and even the well-being of urban
dwellers (Priya & Senthil, 2021; Elliott et al. 2020). According to Zak et al. (2020), UHI is a
phenomenon that occurs in metropolitan regions. It happens when the urban area’s temperature
rises significantly compared to the surrounding peri-urban neighborhoods. As a result, the UHI
effect causes higher temperatures in urban areas than in the neighboring peri-urban regions
(Vujovic et al. 2021). According to van der Schriek et al. (2020) and Tewari et al. (2019) UHI
effect is projected to be aggravated eventually due to changes in climate. However, the severity of
the intensity of UHI effect will depend mainly on a city’s location and characteristics such as; level
of industrialization, size and population density, traffic density and pattern and seasonality of the
climate (Tzavali et al. 2015). For instance, Monrovia being a coastal city situated along the Atlantic
Ocean is ordinarily hot and therefore, the severity of UHI effect would be higher than non-coastal
cities.

Elevation of UHI has been linked to a decrease in Urban Green Infrastructure (UGI) (Marando et
al. 2022; Balany et al. 2020). However, creation and conservation of UGI as a way to mitigate
UHI helps to promote cooling island effect (Elliott et al. 2020; Westendorff, 2020; Shafiee et al.
2020; He, 2022; Lehmann, n.d). Pauleit et al. (2017) defined UGI as a complex system of green
spaces that are partially or entirely covered in vegetation, providing diverse social, economic, and
environmental advantages to urban regions. UGI comprises of water area, forestry, nature

2
protection site e.g., arboretum, national parks, game reserves, and botanical gardens, agriculture
land, linear green spaces, recreational parks and gardens, community gardens, school yards,
cemeteries, picnic areas, green walls, lawns, roadside vegetation, green roofs, among others (Priya
& Senthil, 2021; Johansen, 2021). UGI forms a green network that not only makes urban area more
resilient, but also has significant socio-ecological benefits (Ayele et al. 2021; Johansen, 2021;
Pauleit et al. 2019).

According to Baniya et al. (2018) UGI regulates high temperature in populated urban areas and
their surroundings, thus plays a crucial role in mitigating the UHI effects, that is, UGI not only
decreases the temperature but also reduces pollution in the urban areas, while increasing their
environmental quality and resilience. As Balany et al. (2020) notes, UGI through albedo effects of
objects, and evapotranspiration of plants can reduce temperature in urban areas. According to
Keeler et al. (2019) UGI is a key environmentally-friendly solution for the UHI effect, supported
by vegetation which through evapotranspiration increases relative humidity and help prevent heat
build-up by creating shades (ibid). Furthermore, UGI act as habitat for urban biodiversity, provides
clean air to the public, reduce heat during dry seasons, offer societal services for the well-being of
urban residents and improves ground water holding (Coutts & Hahn, 2015). It should be
highlighted that not all UGI are expected to offer equal levels of mitigation against the urban heat
island effect (Mexia et al. 2018; Marando et al. 2019).

As Liberia’s metropolitan areas continue to develop, especially Monrovia city, which is the
country’s capital, there has been rapid conversion of natural land, including back filling of
wetlands to impervious surfaces which has resulted in the development of UHI. This cast a doubt
on the environmental sustainability of Monrovia city with respect to land use management and
planning. Against this background, and while taking cognizant of the need to manage UHI for the
future sustainability of Monrovia city, the study sought to undertake a geospatial assessment of
the role of UGI in mitigating UHI.

1.2 Problem Statement

Concerning the quality of life and the wellbeing of the general public, the UHI phenomenon has
progressively become a significant matter. Several prominent cities worldwide are presently
encountering the UHI phenomenon, which happens when urban regions have elevated surface and
air temperatures in comparison to their surrounding rural and peri-urban areas (Zak et al. 2020).

3
Despite cities offering many opportunities for improved standards of living, their current growth
patterns are unsustainable, and are contributing to UHI effect, that is, valuable green infrastructure
and their associated ecosystem services are being lost (Arshad et al. 2022). Furthermore, green
infrastructures are usually the last pieces of project plan to be implemented by city developers, and
often face cut budgets that leads to unsuccessful installation and management of such infrastructure
(Dushkova & Haase, 2020).

Overtime, the implication of UHI effect for both biodiversity and human wellbeing has become
more obvious in Greater Monrovia District, for example, being a coastal district that is generally
hot aggravates the potential impact of UHI effect on human and biodiversity. For instance, there
has been consequences for city dweller’s thermal comfort in particular children, the elderly, and
city dwellers with respiratory and cardiovascular problems (Singh et al. 2020).

However, studies demonstrating the contributions that UGI can make in reducing LST towards
mitigating UHI effect in Greater Monrovia District were still lacking. In this regard and in order
to address this gap, a detailed, citywide geospatial assessment of the function of UGI in mitigating
UHI effect was conducted to support the implementation of policies that promote sustainable urban
planning through creation and maintenance of UGI.

1.3 Research Questions

1.3.1 Main Question
What role has UGI played in mitigating UHI in Greater Monrovia District, Liberia for the period
1991-2020?

1.3.2 Specific Questions

The main question is guided by three specific questions;
1. What are the trends of LULC change in Greater Monrovia District for the period 1991-
2020?
2. What is the relationship between LULC change and LST in Greater Monrovia District for
the period 1991-2020?
3. What are the consequences of the relationship between LULC change and LST on UHI in
Greater Monrovia District for the period 1991-2020?

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1.4 Research Objectives
1.4.1 General Objective
To assess the role that UGI has played in mitigating UHI in Greater Monrovia District, Liberia for
the period 1991-2020.

1.4.2 Specific Objectives

The general objective is divided into the following three specific objectives;
1. To determine the trends of LULC in Greater Monrovia District for the period 1991-2020.
2. To establish the relationship between LULC and LST in Greater Monrovia District for the
period 1991-2020.
3. To examine the consequences of the relationship between LULC and LST on UHI in
Greater Monrovia District for the period 1991-2020.

1.5 Justification of the Study

The geospatial assessment generated information that can be used to; (i) inform the amendments
of urban planning policies in Liberia towards effective landscape planning and management, (ii)
initiate the development of UGI in Greater Monrovia District and other districts undergoing similar
LULC in order to address UHI effect, and (iii) make important contribution both locally and
globally on the role of GIS and Remote Sensing in sustainable urban planning towards sustainable
cities.

1.6 Scope of the Study

The focus of this geospatial assessment was to evaluate the impact of UGI in reducing the UHI
effect, using geospatial methods. As such, the geospatial analysis was limited to changes in LULC
and variations in LST in the Greater Monrovia District between 1991 and 2020. However, due to
financial limitations, the research only covered the Greater Monrovia District, and other districts
in Liberia experiencing comparable land use changes that could exacerbate the UHI effect were
not considered.

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 CHAPTER II
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Urbanization and LULC change
The need to accommodate the demands of a growing urban population and promote economic
progress has driven an unparalleled growth of urban areas (Nath et al. 2021). Nevertheless, the
unregulated pace of urban expansion has led to a rise in the transformation of urban green spaces
into impervious surfaces, as more built-up areas emerge (Mundhe & Jaybhaye, 2014). In this
regard, a number of scholars including; Liu & Weng, (2013); Mundhe & Jaybhaye, (2014), Sajjad
& Iqbal, (2012); Maheng et al., (2021); Yu et al., (2022) and Patra et al., (2018) have conducted
studies to determine how urbanization has impacted urban LULC change.

Liu & Weng, (2013), while assessing how urbanization-induced LULC changes can be effectively
quantified using landscape metrics in Indianapolis, Indiana, USA, used two Landsat 5 TM images
(1989 and 2000), and two (ASTER) images (2000 and 2006), and identified LULC types
including; water, wetlands, urban grasslands, agriculture, barren lands and forest, which they used
to generate two Landsat-derived maps and two ASTER-derived LULC maps. The duo then
calculated a series of landscape metrics which they used to compare the maps, where they found
that urbanization had contributed remarkably to LULC changes in Indianapolis, where forests
became more disaggregated, while agricultural lands decreased. However, grassland did not only
increase slightly in size, but also improved in connectedness and aggregation level.

Similarly, Mundhe and Jaybhaye (2014) conducted a study that examined how LULC changes has
been affected by urbanization in Pune city, India. Their research, which was published in the
International Journal of Geomatics and Geosciences, involved a spatio-temporal analysis of four
decades of LULC changes from 1973-2011 data from Landsat MSS (1973), Landsat TM (1992),
Landsat ETM+ (2001), and Landsat TM (2011). Through on-field validation and a hybrid
classification method, the researchers discovered that the urbanized parts of Pune city had
increased to 155.99 km² from 28.50 km², representing a 43.43% change in LULC. Additionally,
they observed a reduction in agricultural land, fallow land, vegetation, and water bodies.

Sajjad & Iqbal (2012) conducted a study in Dudhganga watershed, India, which aimed to examine
how LULC has been affected by urbanization. The study, which was published in the international
journal of urban science, utilized multi-temporal Landsat data for 1991 and 2010 to estimate land

6
absorption coefficient and land consumption ratio. Based on their findings, the authors reported a
significant decrease of 32.41km2 in agricultural land, accompanied by a dramatic increase of
50.56km2 in built-up area from 1991 to 2010. The expansion of Srinagar city was identified as the
main cause of urbanization in the downstream of the watershed, resulting in the reduction of
agricultural land. The authors highlighted the potential risk of severe degradation of the watershed
if the current trend continues and recommended formulation of effective land use policies to
address the issue.

Additionally, Maheng et al., (2021) in a study conducted in Jakarta, Indonesia on how urbanization
affects landscapes patterns, reported that changes in landscapes patterns due to urbanization have
reduced runoff regulation by (11.5%), temperature regulation by (12.4%) and carbon sinking by
(10.4%), implying that, growth of urban areas have not only led to loss of or changes in green
spaces, but also altered its ecological services.

Similarly, Yu et al., (2022) in a geospatial assessment that explored urbanization patterns of

Chengdu city, classified Landsat Images (2004-2018) using Support Vector Machine (SVM)
classifier, with a kappa coefficient of 0.90 and an accuracy of 0.94, and found out that; Chengdu city
had expanded from 80.43 km2 in 2004 to 210.50 km2 in 2018, with an increasing reliance on
conversion of vegetation area.

Lastly, Patra et al., (2018) in a study published in the Journal of Urban Management , and that
geospatially assessed how LULC changes are affected by urbanization of Howrah Municipal
Corporation, India, computed LULC changes and NDBI using remote sensing and GIS techniques,
where they indicated that; there were evidence of built-up expansion from south-eastern to north-
eastern part of the Corporation. Additionally, they noted that; there were evidences of shrinkage or
urban sprawl which showed that built-up areas were expanding thus causing environmental
degradation in the Corporation. Patra et al., concluded the study by recommending that the findings
inform designing of necessary policies and regulations to address such urban sprawl and its
associated environmental impacts.

7
2.2 Impacts of LULC change on LST
The LULC alterations and its associated negative impacts on LST due to rapid urbanization have
been documented by Amir Siddique et al. (2021), and the resultant harm to urban ecosystems has
raised significant concerns. As a result, various studies have been conducted, including those by
Dhar et al. (2019), Le-Xiang et al. (2006), Ahmed et al. (2020), Karakuş, (2019); Wang et al.,
(2023) and Fatemi & Narangifard, (2019), to investigate how LST is affected by LULC change.

Dhar et al. (2019) conducted a study in Rajarhat Block, West Bengal, used Sentinel 2A (2016),
Landsat 8 OLI (2016), and Landsat 5 TM(1990), and multi-spectro-temporal satellite data to
evaluate how LST is affected by LULC. They mapped land use land cover and estimated LST
using thermal infrared data and found that there was an increase in LST by 1.5 0C due to a loss of
13 km2 of vegetation associated with LULC changes.

Similarly, Le-Xiang et al. (2006) carried out a geospatial assessment in Zhujiang Delta and
evaluated the impact of LULC change on LST. They used multi-temporal Landsat ETM+ and
Landsat TM data to measure urban expansion and the related decline in tree cover, and used the
TIR bands of the data to retrieve LST. They noted that LST had increased by 4.560C in the newly
built-up parts of Zhujiang Delta due to a strong and unbalanced urban development. Le-Xiang et
al. concluded that for analysis and monitoring of urban growth patterns and their related impacts
on land surface temperature, the application of GIS and remote sensing techniques were the most
effective approaches.

On the other hand, Ahmed et al. (2020) studied LST in Potiskum, Yobe State, Nigeria, using
meteorological data and remotely sensed data obtained from Landsat 8 OLI images (2008-2015)
and Landsat 7 ETM+ images (2003-2008). They found that there was little expansion of urbanized
area between 2003 and 2008 compared to 2008 to 2015, and suggested that good policies and
afforestation could help combat the rise in temperature in urban areas, contributing to low LST
values.

Similarly, Karakuş, (2019) in a study that assessed the impacts of LULC changes on LST in Sivas
City Center, and that was published in Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, used
Landsat Images (1989-2015) to study the relationship between LULC, NDVIA and LST in Sivas

8
city centre and its environs, where he found that; built-up areas increased significantly in size,
while vegetated land and bare lands decreased in size over the same period. Consequently, the
built-up areas recorded highest LST, while a fluctuating trend was seen in the urban built-up
surface temperature.

Wang et al., (2023) in a study on how LST is affected by urban land changes, in Guangzhou,
China, monitored and predicted the changes in urban growth patterns (LULC) on LST from 1989
to 2021, using Cellular Automata-Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) and Long Short-Term
Memory (LSTM) based Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA), and found out that; an increase
in urban areas by 63% causes an upsurge of high LST (≥34 °C) areas by 652 km2. Wang et al.,
concluded the study by indicating that; the findings of the study can provide effective mitigating
measures for designing smart cities as well as valuable guidelines for ensuring environmental-
friendly green cities.

Lastly, Fatemi & Narangifard, (2019), in a study published in the Arabian Journal of
Geosciences, and that assessed how LST and NDVI are affected by LULC changes in Shiraz City,
used a multi-temporal dataset consisting of two sets of Landsat TM images from 1986-2011, and
four Landsat images to investigate the relationship between LST and NDVI. The duo also
retrieved LULC,LST and NDVI in ERDAS IMAGINE 9.2 image processing software, where
they found out that; the residential parts of the city had experienced significant increase to
13.17 km2 , while land areas under vegetation had decreased to 4.6 km2 and barren lands to
8.63 km2 during the same period. Evidently, the negative correlation between vegetation and LST
caused by lower vegetation quality was less significant in 2011 compared to 1986, while the
correlation between vegetation and LST in summer was higher than other seasons.

2.3 Urbanization and Urban Heat Island

Rapid urbanization coupled with increased urban growth and development has significantly
resulted in exacerbation of the UHI phenomenon (Li et al. 2018). Nonetheless, effective urban
planning can aid in reducing the UHI effect (Zhou & Chen, 2018). To this end, studies have been
conducted on urbanization and UHI as well as the integration of UGI to mitigate the UHI effect
(Zhou & Chen, 2018; Uddin et al. 2022; Abdulateef & Al-Alwan, 2022; Marando et al., 2022;
Leal Filho et al. 2021).

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Zhou & Chen (2018) conducted a study in Wuhan City, China, using statistical data on LULC
changes from 1965-2008 to assess how urbanization through alteration of LULC have contributed
to urban heat island. They found that the UHII of Wuhan City increased to 0.4 °C from 0.2 °C on
average.

In another study, Uddin et al. (2022) assessed UHI effects brought about by changes in urban areas
in Dhaka City, Bangladesh, from 2001-2017. They used MODIS data to calculate the expansion of
the city and statistical methods to estimate changes in urban temperature. They found a 25.33%
increase in Dhaka city's land surface area and 76.65% increase in city’s the population resulting in
an increase in temperature of roughly 3°C in some parts of the city compared to its bordering
communities. They concluded that without mitigation practices, the UHI effect in the city would
increase, leading to higher public health risks.

Abdulateef & Al-Alwan, (2022) in a study conducted in Risafa municipality, Baghdad city, that
used ENVI-met to assess the how Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) can effectively be reduced
using urban green infrastructure, measured different surfaces’ temperatures in two models using
base case scenario, and found out that, in both models, urban green infrastructure had an apparent
role in reducing surface temperature. Moreover, Abdulateef & Al-Alwan reiterated that the cooling
effect brought about by incorporating UGI scenarios was similar in the two models, which further
confirmed that UGI would contribute greatly to reducing SUHI in Baghdad City. However, the
cooling effect is largely dependent on the types of UGI.

Relatedly, Marando et al. (2022) conducted geospatial assessment in Europe to develop a model
for regulating microclimate through urban green infrastructure (UGI) in 601 European cities and
assess its effectiveness in mitigating UHI. The model simulated the differences in temperature s
between scenarios with and without vegetation and extrapolated UGI's role in reducing UHI in
different urban contexts. The authors found that UGI could lower urban temperatures up to 2.9°C
and by an average of 1.07°C. They also indicated not less than 16% of tree cover was needed to
attain a 1°C decrease in temperature since the regulation of microclimatic conditions is dependent
on the amount of vegetation that enables evapotranspiration. Marando et al. concluded by
recommending widespread adoption and implementation of UGI to ensure healthy living
conditions for urban residents.

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Lastly, Leal Filho et al. (2021) in an article that emerged from a review and analysis of 14 case
studies from cities spread across 13 countries of different climatic zones and geographical regions,
on the role of UGI in mitigating UHI as well their negative impacts on urban dwellers, found out
that; under certain conditions, urban green infrastructure may mitigate UHI and equally address
its potential impacts on city dwellers. However, Leal Filho et al. revealed that; the lack of
uniformity in the impacts of UHI which highly dependent on the peculiarities of various urban
morphology, pose challenges linked to the role of UGI in regulating the microclimatic conditions
unique to each city.

2.4 Research Gap

On the basis of the reviewed literature, it was apparent that most of the studies on urbanization-
induced LULC change and associated UHI effect had been conducted in Asia particularly China,
India and Bangladesh, and their findings could not be generalized to other regions like West Africa
especially Liberia considering the huge disparities in urban population size, extent of urban
development, and extent of air pollution which collectively contribute to the development of UHI
phenomenon. Furthermore, some of these studies were based on already existing urban green
spaces such as parks, and therefore, could not be generalized for a district like Greater Monrovia
that do not have designated green spaces.

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3.1 Study Area Description and Land Use
The assessment was carried out in Greater Monrovia District in Liberia, a country in the West
African region. Administratively, Greater Monrovia district is in Montserrado County, and borders
Atlantic Ocean to the south (GoL, n.d.). Geographically, Greater Monrovia District lies between
latitude 10°42'42.546"W and longitude 6°17'43.685"N, and occupies approximately 196 km2. The
study area map is shown in Figure 3.1. Greater Monrovia District experiences tropical monsoon
climate with wet and dry seasons, and have an average annual temperature of 250C (World Bank,
2021). The rainy season is from May to October while the dry season is from November through
April (ibid). Since 2000, there has been an increase in rural-urban migration that has led to
increased urban population in Greater Monrovia District (Hove et al. 2013). This has been
attributed to Monrovia being the country's economic, financial and cultural center, thus attracts
people who are in search of greener pastures and government services, including but not limited
to basic social services, social amenities, employment, and education (ibid). The current
population of Greater Monrovia District is estimated to be 1,623,000, and it is considered the most
populous district in Liberia (LISGIS, 2022). In terms of land use, commercial and residential areas
intersperse throughout the district, although the district surrounds a mangrove swamp which is a
Ramsar protected site (Lloyd et al. 2016).

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13
3.2 Methodology
The methodology adopted in this study consisted of a five-step procedure involving data
acquisition, image processing, LULC classification, retrieval of LST, determination of NDBI, and
determination of UHI as described below. Figure 3.2 shows a framework of the methodology.

3.2.1 Data Acquisition

The satellite images for the study were obtained from 1991 to 2020, at a 10-year interval for the
years 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2020 as base years to evaluate and interpret LULC changes. Cloud
free Landsat 4 TM (1991), Landsat 7 ETM+ (2001 and 2011), and Landsat 8 OLI (2020) of the
Greater Monrovia District, with path 200 and row 56, was obtained from the USGS website. The
acquired data with WGS_1984 was projected to UTM projections specific to Liberia; WGS_1984-
_UTM_Zone_29N. Table 1 shows a summary of the satellite imagery acquired for the study. It is
worth noting that; data acquisition mostly depended on data availability, suitability, and quality.

Table 3.1: Satellite Imagery acquired in the study

3.2.2 Image Processing

The downloaded images were cropped to limit the scope of spatial analysis to the study area,
thereafter they were pre-processed for atmospheric and geometric correction. The images were
enhanced to improve visual contrast, and then colour composited using geoprocessing tool that
generates Red, Green and Blue (RGB) raster dataset, from a multiband raster dataset.

3.2.3 LULC Classification

Supervised-classification approach entailing creation of training sites defined by a six-
classification system including; built-up area, waterbodies, bare land, mangroves, grassland, and
shrub land, was applied in the study. To obtain land use and land surface characteristics for each
year from 1991 to 2020, the study used images from Landsat 4 TM, Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat

14
8 OLI. ArcGIS software was utilized to perform the classification of land use and detect changes,
using Near Infrared, Red and Green bands combination. The supervised classification approach
helped determine the total area in square kilometers for each land class and track any changes in
land use. The number of correctly classified pixels were divided by total number of validations
sets in each class to perform an accuracy assessment, to ensure efficient classification of pixels
into the correct land cover classes. Finally, the LULC maps were generated.

3.2.4 Retrieval of LST

To obtain LST data, the study used Landsat 4 TM (1991), Landsat 7 ETM+ (2001 and 2011), and
Landsat 8 OLI (2020) thermal bands 6 and 10 by applying a set of equations through a raster
image calculator in ArcGIS. The process followed a five-step procedure involving the calculation
of Top of Atmospheric (TOA) spectral radiance(𝐿𝜆), which was converted to Brightness
Temperature (BT), the generation of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI),
calculation of Land Surface Emissivity (LSE), and calculation of LST.

The first step involved calculation of 𝐿𝜆, and conversion of the images from Digital Number
(DN) to 𝐿𝜆 to get the actual reflectance from the earth's surface. The second step involved
converting the 𝐿𝜆 to BT using a specific formula (Equation 3.1).

K2
BT = -273.15 (3.1)
ln[(K1/Lλ)+1]

Where;
BT = TOA Brightness temperature in Kelvin
Lλ = Spectral Radiance (Watts/ (m2*sr* µm)
K1 & K2 = Band specific thermal conversion constants from the metadata for band 6 and band 11

The third step in the process involved calculating the NDVI using Equation 3.2. The NDVI values
ranged from -1.0 to +1.0 and allowed for determination of vegetation cover in different land cover
types. The determination of NDVI was important as it allowed subsequent determination of the
Proportion of vegetation (Pv) and emissivity (ԑ).

15
In the fourth step, LSE was calculated using NDVI to estimate LST. Based on Planck’s law, LSE
adjusted blackbody radiance to allow for prediction of emitted radiance, as it showed how
efficiently thermal energy is transmitted from the surface into the atmosphere.

In the fifth step, LST was obtained by using the BT of bands band 10 for Landsat 8 (OLI) and band
6 for Landsat TM and ETM+ and along with LSE derived from NDVI, following the formula
described in Equation 3.3.

16
It is important to note that the LSTs were assessed for each image, and trends in the datasets
observed. A comparison of the intensity of the UHI from 1991 to 2020 was conducted to
understand changes in the temperature of the study area. To simplify data processing, analysis, and
interpretation, LST was classified into four categories: very low, low, high, and very high.

3.2.5 Determination of Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI)

NDBI was determined to illustrate urban development overtime by mapping built-up changes,
using Equation 3.5. A spectral response of built-up area that has higher reflectance in MIR
wavelength range than in the NIR wavelength range was used to determine NDBI.

3.2.6 Determination of Urban Heat Island

To determine the UHI, threshold temperatures were estimated using the equations shown in
Equations 3.6 and 3.7. The intensity of the UHI was then calculated by subtracting the LST of the
least urbanized reference area (vegetated) from that of the UHI area.

17
Figure 3.2: Framework of the methodology

18
4.1 Land Use Land Cover change analysis
The study assessed the trends in LULC change in Greater Monrovia District for the period 1991-
2020 and found out significant trends in the changes in the land use land cover. Evidently, the land
under built area increased tremendously from 1991- 2020 while the other land use land cover types
decreased significantly over the same period (Figure 4.1).

The LULC of the year 1991 shows that the study area had a built-up land with a total area of 62km2
(14.6%), a bare land with a total area of 9km2 (90%), vegetated land (shrubland, grassland and
mangroves) with a total area of 142km2 (62.8%) and a waterbody with a total area of 13km2
(32.5%). However, the built-up area increased to 153km2 in 2020, representing 146.8% increase,
while the bare land completely diminished to 0km2 representing -100% decrease. Similarly,
vegetated land decreased to 62km2 representing -56.3% decrease, while the land area under the

19
waterbodies decreased to 11km2 representing a -15.3% decrease (Table 4.1). The apparent decrease
in other LULC classes can be attributed to the increase in the built-up area which is also the
dominant class. For instance, the vegetated areas have been cleared, while some portions of
waterbodies have been backfilled for infrastructural development.

Table 4.1: LULC classes, their coverages, and changes over time

Notably, the current study’s findings concur with the findings of a geospatial analysis by Liu &
Weng, (2013) conducted in Indianapolis, Indiana, USA, which found an increase in size of the
urbanized area and a decrease in size of other land use land cover types including; agricultural land
and forest. However, the current study’s finding on the decrease in size of grassland contradicts,
Liu & Weng, (2013) finding that showed an increase in size and connectedness of grassland. This
increase in size and connectedness could be attributed to the urban planning policies in the USA
requiring city developers to replant grass upon completion of a development project. The current
study’s findings also concur with Mundhe and Jaybhaye (2014) findings from a study conducted
in Pune City, India which showed an increase in size of urbanized areas at the expense of other
land use land cover types such as agricultural land, fallow land, vegetation, and water bodies,
which tremendously decreased in size. Although the current study did not include agricultural land
in the LULC classes, its findings concur with the findings of a geospatial analysis by Sajjad &
Iqbal (2012) conducted in Dudhganga watershed, India, which showed a significant decrease of in
agricultural land, and a dramatic increase in built-up area between 1991 and 2010.

4.2 The relationship between LULC and LST

The study analysed the LST for the various LULC classes by classifying the LST distributions into
appropriate ranges and color-codes and generating a thermal pattern distribution map of the study
area, where it was determined that; different LULC classes had different LST values (Figure 4.2).

20
Evidently, the mean LST values were higher in built-up areas and bare land, while the LSTS values
were considerably low in vegetated areas (shrubland, grassland and mangroves) and waterbodies.

Figure 4.2: Land Surface Temperature maps of Greater Monrovia District for different
years
The LST analysis was based on an LST classification system including; very low (<-10C), low (-
10C-200C), high (200C- 400C), and very high (>400C). Generally mean LST increased significantly
from (29.30C) in 1991 to (360C) in 2020. For the year 1991, the result of the LST analysis showed
that the built-up areas had a mean LST of 360C, while the bare land had a mean LST of (320C).
However, the mean LST for the built-up area and bare land were very high in 2020 recording up
to 420C and 380C respectively. Notably, the other classes of LULC including; shrubland, grassland,
mangroves and waterbodies recorded high mean LST (34.80C) for the 1991, and (330C) for the
year 2011, with high mean LST in the range of (300C- 370C) being recorded in 2020. The high
mean LSTs recorded for bare land, shrubland, grassland, mangroves and waterbodies between
1991 and 2011 could be attributed to increase in economic growth and associated infrastructural
development. Noteworthy, Liberia began reconstruction and rehabilitation of the post-war

21
destruction around 2010, hence the increase in built-up areas and the associated LSTs in 2011. The
high LSTs recorded between 1991 and 2011 could also be attributed changes in climate which
might led to increase in temperature hence high LSTs. Table 4.2 shows the mean LST for the
LULC classes for the period 1991 – 2020.

Table 4.2: Mean LST for the LULC classes for the period 1991-2020

This study’s findings concur with the findings of a previous study by Dhar et al. (2019) conducted
in Rajarhat Block, West Bengal, which assessed the link between LULC changes and LST, and
found out that; there was an increase in LST due to loss of vegetation. Notably, the conversion of
vegetated land to bare land led to an increase in LST as was observed in the current study where
bare land recorded high mean LST values as compared to vegetated lands. The findings also concur
with Le-Xiang et al. (2006) findings from a geospatial assessment conducted in Zhujiang Delta,
that evaluated the impact of LULC change on LST, and found out that; LST had increased in the
newly built-up parts of Zhujiang Delta due to a strong and unbalanced urban development.
Noteworthy, the current study also found high LST values in built-up areas.

4.3 Urban Heat Island Analysis

The study assessed the consequences of the relationship between LULC and LST on UHI by
generating UHI maps, and determined that, different LULC classes along with their LST values
exhibited different UHI. That is, built-up areas and bare land with high LST showed high UHI (1)
as compared to vegetated areas (shrubland, grassland, and mangroves) and waterbodies with low
LST, which showed relatively low UHI (0) (Figure 4.3). Interestingly, this result shows that UHI
exist in Greater Monrovia District.

22
 Figure 4.3: Urban Heat Island maps of Greater Monrovia District for different years

The study further generated NDBI and NDVI maps of the study area to illustrate the link between
built-up areas and LST and vegetated areas and LST respectively, and how that correlation is
contributing to UHI. Evidently, the built-up areas showed high NDBI in the range of (-1 – 0.48)
while the vegetated areas showed high NDVI in the range of (-0.07 – 0.80). Figure 4.4 and 4.5
show the NDBI and NDVI maps respectively.

23
Figure 4.4: NDBI maps of Greater Monrovia District for different years

24
 Figure 4.5: NDVI maps of Greater Monrovia District for different years

Moreover, Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to show the correlation between NDBI and
LST and the correlation between NDVI and LST. Notably, the scatter plots revealed a positive
correlation between LST and NDBI for all years (Figure 4.6). This implies that the higher the
NDBI, the higher the LST values. The positive correlation found between LST and NDBI shows
that built-up area is producing much LST variations and is the main contributor to UHI effect
(Figure 4.3). The scatter plots also revealed a negative correlation between LST and NDVI in all
the years (Figure 4.7). This significant negative correlation validates the role that UGI play in
mitigating UHI effect. That is the higher the NDVI, the lower the LST, thus the relationship
between LST and NDVI in urban Green space can effectively reduce the UHI effect. Essentially,
the evapotranspiration of plants plays a physiological role in reducing ambient temperature,
eventually alleviating surface temperature and thus reducing the UHI effect.

25
Figure 4.6: LST as a function of NDBI during different years

26
 Figure 4.7: LST as a function of NDVI during different years

The study further correlated NDBI and NDVI for all the years, and found a negative correlation
between NDBI and NDVI for all the years. That is, the higher the NDBI the lower the NDVI
(Figure 4.8). This demonstrates how urbanization leads to loss of urban green spaces by converting
them into impervious or built-up areas.

27
 Figure 4.8: Correlation between NDBI and NDVI for different years

The current study’s finding on the positive correlation between NBDI (built-up areas) and LST,
concur with the findings of a study by Uddin et al. (2022) which assessed UHI effects brought
about by changes in urban areas in Dhaka City, Bangladesh, from 2001-2017, and found out that;
increase in size of the built-up area of the city led to a significant increase LST by about 3°C, hence
could potentially contribute to UHI unless measures are put in place to mitigate it. The current
study’s finding on the potential of urban green spaces (NDVI) to mitigate UHI by regulating LST
also concurs with Abdulateef & Al-Alwan, (2022) finding from a study conducted in Risafa
municipality, Baghdad city, that used ENVI-met to assess the how Surface Urban Heat Island
(SUHI) can effectively be reduced using urban green infrastructure, and that indicated that; urban
green infrastructure had an apparent role in reducing surface temperature.

28
5.1 Conclusions
In view of the geospatial analysis, the study concludes that;

There are visible trends in LULC change with built-up area showing a significant increase in size
as compared to bare land, land areas under vegetation (shrubland, grassland and mangroves) and
waterbodies which showed a significant decrease over the study period. This simply implies that
the expansion of Greater Monrovia District, especially infrastructural development, has led to the
loss of green spaces, backfilling of water areas as well as encroachment of mangrove forests.

The increase in size of built-up areas and a decrease in size of bare land, land areas under vegetation
(shrubland, grassland and mangroves) and waterbodies has resulted in increase of LST with built-
up areas recording high mean LST. This demonstrates that built-up areas such as buildings, roads
and other impervious surfaces, absorb and retain more heat from shortwave radiation as compared
to other LULC types, hence the high mean LST in built-up areas.

The relationship between LULC and LST have contributed to the development of UHI
phenomenon. For instance, built-up areas where natural and semi-natural landscapes are converted
into impervious surfaces have led to the development of UHI by raising LST. Built-up areas absorb
and retain heat during the day and slowly release it during the nighttime thereby contributing to
UHI. Additionally, NDBI negatively correlated with NDVI implying that increasing built-up areas
have led to loss of urban green spaces which could potentially contribute to the development of
UHI effect, while NDBI positively correlated with LST implying that the higher the built-up index
the higher the LST, hence the formation of UHI phenomenon. In contrast, the land areas under
vegetation and waterbodies showed relatively low LST which underscores the potential
contribution of urban green spaces/infrastructure in mitigating UHI. Evidently, NDVI negatively
correlated with LST implying that; the higher the vegetation index the lower the LST.

29
5.2 Recommendations
On the basis of the research findings, the study makes following recommendations;
i. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) of Liberia should convene a national roundtable
on Urban Green Infrastructure and its role in mitigating UHI, to draw the attention of
experts, donors, policymakers; UN, and private sector to the issue of UHI and the need for
Urban Green Infrastructure.
ii. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) of Liberia should create awareness among city
dwellers on the UHI and the benefits of having UGI such lawns, trees, and green roofs to
help increase the coverage of vegetation.
iii. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) of Liberia should support urban planning policies
requiring development projects to include UGI.
iv. UNDP and World Bank should fund projects on the development of Urban Green
Infrastructures within greater Monrovia District to help address the UHI effect.
v. Liberia Land Authority and Monrovia City Corporation should designate land areas within
Greater Monrovia District for funding and development into Urban Green Infrastructure to
help regulate LST.
vi. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) of Liberia should liaise with Forest Development
Authority (FDA) and Public Works to implement the urban green infrastructure
development projects along the roads by planting roadside vegetation.
vii. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) of Liberia should ensure that the mangroves
forests area adequately monitored and protected as they have shown a great reduction in
LST in Greater Monrovia District.
viii. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) of Liberia should ensure that the
backfilling of wetlands for infrastructural development is halted as the waterbodies showed
a great cooling effect potential which could mitigate the UHI effect.

5.3 Areas for further research

Based on the research findings, the study recommends further research on; the relationship
between LULC change and Air temperature and how that has contributed to UHI, the impacts of
encroachment on mangroves forest on the mangrove ecosystem, and the urban expansion patterns
and how it affects LULC, LST and UHI.

30
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