Group4 Randomvariableanddistribution 151014015655 Lva1 App6891
Group4 Randomvariableanddistribution 151014015655 Lva1 App6891
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4.1: Two Types of Random
Variables
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4.1: Two Types of Random
Variables
A discrete random variable can assume a
countable number of values.
Number of steps to the top of the Eiffel Tower*
A continuous random variable can
assume any value along a given interval of
a number line.
The time a tourist stays at the top
once s/he gets there
*Believe it or not, the answer ranges from 1,652 to 1,789. See Great Buildings
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4.1: Two Types of Random
Variables
Discrete random variables
Number of sales
Number of calls
Shares of stock
People in line
Mistakes per page
Continuous random
variables
Length
Depth
Volume
Time
Weight
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4.2: Probability Distributions
for Discrete Random Variables
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4.2: Probability Distributions
for Discrete Random Variables
x P(x)
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4.3: Expected Values of
Discrete Random Variables
E( x) xp( x).
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4.3: Expected Values of
Discrete Random Variables
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4.3: Expected Values of
Discrete Random Variables
P( x ) ≥0 .68
P ( 2 x 2 ) ≥ .75 .95
P ( 3 x 3 ) ≥ .89 1.00
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4.3: Expected Values of
Discrete Random Variables
In a roulette wheel in a U.S. casino, a $1 bet on
“even” wins $1 if the ball falls on an even number
(same for “odd,” or “red,” or “black”).
The odds of winning this bet are 47.37%
P( win $1) .4737
P(lose $1) .5263
$1 .4737 $1 .5263 .0526
.9986
On average, bettors lose about a nickel for each dollar they put down on a bet like this.
(These are the best bets for patrons.)
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Binomial Distribution
Tree Diagram
4 Properties of Binomial Distribution
Throwing a die
Tree Diagram
X ~ B(n,p)
X – number of
successes in a trial
X ~ B(3, 1/6)
Is there a formula for calculating
Binomial Probabilities rather than draw
a tree diagram?
There are five things you need to do to
work a binomial story problem.
Where: q = 1 - p
The General Binomial
Probability Formula
In the old days, there was a probability of 0.8 of success
in any attempt to make a telephone call. Calculate the
probability of having 7 successes in 10 attempts.
Mean and Variance
4.5: The Poisson Distribution
The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability
distribution for the counts of events that occur randomly in
a given interval of time (or space).
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4.5: The Poisson Distribution
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4.5: The Poisson Distribution
FORMULA
The formula for the Poisson probability mass function is
where
•e is the base of natural logarithms (2.7183)
•μ is the mean number of "successes"
•x is the number of "successes" in question
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4.5: The Poisson Distribution
EXAMPLE
The average number of homes sold by the Acme Realty company is 2
homes per day. What is the probability that exactly 3 homes will be
sold tomorrow?
Solution: This is a Poisson experiment in which we know the following:
μ = 2;
x = 3;
e = 2.71828; since e is a constant equal to approximately 2.71828.
We plug these values into the Poisson formula as follows:
P(x; μ) = (e-μ) (μx) / x!
P(3; 2) = (2.71828-2) (23) / 3!
P(3; 2) = (0.13534) (8) / 6
P(3; 2) = 0.180
Thus, the probability of selling 3 homes tomorrow is 0.180 .
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4.5: The Poisson Distribution
EXAMPLE
Suppose you knew that the mean number of calls to a fire station
on a weekday is 8. What is the probability that on a given weekday
there would be 11 calls?
μ = 8;
x = 11;
e = 2.71828; since e is a constant equal to approximately
2.71828.
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4.5: The Poisson Distribution
Changing the size of the interval
Suppose we know that births in a hospital occur randomly at an average rate of
1.8 births per hour.
What is the probability that we observe 5 births in a given 2 hour interval?
Well, if births occur randomly at a rate of 1.8 births per 1 hour interval
Then births occur randomly at a rate of 3.6 births per 2 hour interval
P (X + Y = 7) = (e-5.4)(5.47) / (7!)
= 0.11999
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4.5: The Poisson Distribution
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4.5: The Poisson Distribution
Example 1
To solve this problem, we need to find the probability that tourists will see
een on a 1-day safari is 5. What is the probability that tourists will
0, 1, 2, or 3 lions. Thus, we need to calculate the sum of four probabilities:
see fewer
P(0; than
5) + P(1; 5) +four
P(2; lions on5).
5) + P(3; the
Tonext 1-day
compute thissafari?
sum, we use the Poisson
formula: This is a Poisson experiment in
Solution:
Suppose the
P(x < 3, 5) average
= P(0; number
5) + P(1; 5) + P(2;of 5) lions
+ P(3; s5)which we know the
P(x < 3, 5) = [ (e -5)(50) / 0! ] + [ (e-5)(51) / 1! ] + [ (e-5)(52) / 2! ] + [ (e-5)(53) / 3!
following:
]
μ =< 5;
P(x 3, 5) = [ (0.006738)(1) / 1 ] + [ (0.006738)(5) / 1 ] + [ (0.006738)(25) / 2
] + [ (0.006738)(125) / 6 ]
x = 0, 1, 2, or 3;
P(x < 3, 5) = [ 0.0067 ] + [ 0.03369 ] + [ 0.084224 ] + [ 0.140375 ]
P(x
e =< 2.71828;
3, 5) = 0.2650
since e is a constant equal to approximately
2.71828.
Thus, the probability of seeing at no more than 3 lions is 0.2650.
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4.6: The Hypergeometric
Distribution
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4.6: The Hypergeometric
Distribution
r N r
x n x
P( x)
N
n
where
N = the total number of elements
r = number of successes in the N elements
n = number of elements drawn
X = the number of successes in the n elements
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4.6: The Hypergeometric
Distribution
r N r
x n x
P( x)
N
n
nr
N
r ( N r ) n( N n)
2
N 2 ( N 1)
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4.6: The Hypergeometric
Distribution
Suppose a customer at a pet store wants to buy two hamsters
for his daughter, but he wants two males or two females (i.e.,
he wants only two hamsters in a few months)
If there are ten hamsters, five male and five female, what is the
probability of drawing two of the same sex? (With hamsters,
it’s virtually a random selection.)
5 10 5
2 2 2 (10)(1)
P( M 2) P( F 2) .22
10 45
2
P( M 2 or F 2) P( M 2) P( F 2) 2 .22 .44
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Continuous Random Variable
• Normal Distribution
The normal distribution refers to a family
of continuous probability
distributions described by the normal
equation.
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Continuous Random Variable
• Normal Distribution
z = (X - μ) / σ
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Continuous Random Variable
• Normal Distribution
Solution:
Example
The value of the normal random variable is 365 days.
•The mean is equal to 300 days.
An standard
•The average lightisbulb
deviation manufactured
equal to 50 days. by the Acme
Corporation lasts 300 days with a standard deviation
z = (X - μ) / σ = (365-300)/50
of 50 days. Assuming that bulb life is normally
z= 1.3
distributed, what is the probability that an Acme light
bulb answer
The will last at
is:most
P( X365< 365)days?= 0.90. Hence, there
is a 90% chance that a light bulb will burn out
within 365 days. 55
Continuous Random Variable
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Continuous Random Variable
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Continuous Random Variable
(A) 0.10
(B) 0.18
(C) 0.50
(D) 0.82
(E) 0.90
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Continuous Random Variable
•Then, using the standard normal distribution table, we find the cumulative
probability associated with the z-score. In this case, we find P(Z < 0.90) =
0.8159.
•Therefore, the P(Z > 0.90) = 1 - P(Z < 0.90) = 1 - 0.8159 = 0.1841.
Thus, we estimate that 18.41 percent of the students tested had a higher
score than Molly.
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