Chapter 9

Project Scheduling
Networks, Duration Estimation, and
Critical Path

Dr. Doaa Saleh

Part A
Project Scheduling

• Project scheduling techniques lie at the heart of project planning and

subsequent monitoring and control.

• Project scheduling represents the conversion of project goals into an

achievable methodology for their completion; it creates a timetable and
reveals the network logic that relates project activities to each other in a
coherent fashion.

• Because project management is predicated on completing a finite set of

goals under a specified time frame, exactly how we develop the project’s
schedule is vitally important to success.
Project Scheduling
• Project scheduling defines network logic for all activities; that is, tasks must
either precede or follow other tasks from the beginning of the project to its
completion.

• Perhaps you identified the following tasks needed to complete the assignment:
1. Identify topic
2. Research topic
3. Write first draft of paper
4. Edit and rewrite paper
5. Prepare class presentation
6. Complete final draft
7. Complete presentation
8. Hand in paper and present topic in class
Project Scheduling
• Once you have identified a reasonable sequential logic for the network, you can
construct a network diagram, which is a schematic display of the project’s
sequential activities and the logical relationships between them.

Option A: Serial Sequential Logic

Project Scheduling

Option B: Nonserial Sequential Logic

Project Scheduling

• There are several reasons why it is so important that project networks

and scheduling be done well.
1. A network clearly illustrates the interdependence of all tasks and work packages.

2. Because a network illustrates this interrelationship among activities and project

personnel, it facilitates communication flows.

3. A network helps with master scheduling of organizational resources because it

shows times when various personnel must be fully committed to project
activities.
Project Scheduling

4. A network identifies the critical activities and distinguishes them from the less
critical.
5. Networks determine when you can expect projects to be completed.

6. Dates on which various project activities must start and end in order to keep to
the overall schedule are identified in a network.

7. A network demonstrates which activities are dependent on which other

activities.
Key Scheduling Terminology

• Scope—The work content and products of a project or component of a project.

Scope is fully described by naming all activities performed, the resources
consumed, and the end products that result, including quality standards.
• Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)—A task-oriented “family tree” of activities
that organizes, defines, and graphically displays the total work to be
accomplished in order to achieve the final objectives of a project. Each
descending level represents an increasingly detailed definition of the project
objective.
• Work package—A deliverable at the lowest level of the Work Breakdown
Structure; it is an element of work performed during the course of a project. A
work package normally has an expected duration plus an expected cost. Other
generic terms for project work include task or activity.
Key Scheduling Terminology
• Project network diagram (PND)—Any schematic display of the logical
relationships of project activities.

• Path—A sequence of activities defined by the project network logic.

• Event—A point when an activity is either started or completed. Often used

in conjunction with AOA networks, events consume no resources and have
no time to completion associated with them.

• Node—One of the defining points of a network; a junction point joined to

some or all of the others by dependency lines (paths).
Key Scheduling Terminology
• Predecessors—Those activities that must be completed prior to initiation of a
later activity in the network.

• Successors—Activities that cannot be started until previous activities have been

completed. These activities follow predecessor tasks.

• Early start (ES) date—The earliest possible date on which the uncompleted
portions of an activity (or the project) can start, based on the network logic and
any schedule constraints. Early start dates can change as the project progresses
and changes are made to the project plan.

• Late start (LS) date—The latest possible date that an activity may begin without
delaying a specified milestone (usually the project finish date).
Key Scheduling Terminology
• Forward pass—Network calculations that determine the earliest start/earliest finish time
(date) for each activity. The earliest start and finish dates are determined by working
forward through each activity in the network.

• Backward pass—Calculation of late finish times (dates) for all uncompleted network
activities. The latest finish dates are determined by working backward through each
activity.

• Merge activity—An activity with two or more immediate predecessors (tasks flowing
into it). Merge activities can be located by doing a forward pass through the network.

• Burst activity—An activity with two or more immediate successor activities (tasks
flowing out from it). Burst activities can be located by doing a backward pass through the
network.
Key Scheduling Terminology
• Float—The amount of time an activity may be delayed from its early start
without delaying the finish of the project. Float is a mathematical
calculation and can change as the project progresses and changes are
made in the project plan. Also called slack, total float, and path float. In
general, float is the difference between the late start date and the early
start date (LS – ES) or between the late finish date and early finish date (LF
– EF).

• Critical path—The path through the project network with the longest
duration. The critical path may change from time to time as activities are
completed ahead of or behind schedule. Critical path activities are
identified as having zero float in the project.
Key Scheduling Terminology

• Critical Path Method (CPM)—A network analysis technique used to determine

the amount of scheduling flexibility (the amount of float) on various logical
network paths in the project schedule network, and to determine the minimum
total project duration.

• Resource-limited schedule—A project schedule whose start and finish dates

reflect expected resource availability. The final project schedule should always be
resource-limited.

• Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)—An event- and probability-

based network analysis system generally used in projects where activities and
their durations are difficult to define. PERT is often used in large programs where
the projects involve numerous organizations at widely different locations.
Key Scheduling Terminology

• The two most common methods for constructing activity networks involve
Activity-on-Arrow (AOA) and Activity-on-Node (AON) logic.

• In the AOA method, the arrow represents the task, or activity, and the node
signifies an event marker that suggests the completion of one activity and the
potential to start the next.

• In AON methodology, the node represents an activity and the path arrows
demonstrate the logical sequencing from node to node through the network.
AOA approaches were most popular several decades ago and are still used to
some extent in the construction industry, but with the rapid rise in computer-
based scheduling programs, there is now a strong emphasis on AON
methodology.
Developing a Network
• There are two primary methods for developing activity networks, PERT and
CPM.

• PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) originally was used in

research and development (R&D), a field in which activity duration
estimates can be difficult to make, and resulted from probability analysis.

• CPM (Critical Path Method) was used commonly in the construction

industry, differs from PERT primarily in the assumptions it makes about
estimating activity durations.

• CPM assumes that durations are more deterministic; that is, they are easier
to ascertain and can be assigned to activities with greater confidence.
Developing a Network
• These rules are very helpful in understanding the logic of activity
networks:
1. Some determination of activity precedence ordering must be done prior to creating the network. That
is, all activities must be logically linked to each other—those that precede others, as well as successor
activities (those that must follow others).
2. Network diagrams usually flow from left to right.
3. An activity cannot begin until all preceding connected activities have been completed.
4. Arrows on networks indicate precedence and logical flow. Arrows can cross over each other, although it
is helpful for clarity’s sake to limit this effect when possible.
5. Each activity should have a unique identifier associated with it (number, letter, code, etc.). For simplicity
these identifiers should occur in ascending order; each one should be larger than the identifiers of
preceding activities.
6. Looping, or recycling through activities, is not permitted.
7. Although not required, it is common to start a project from a single beginning node, even in the case
when multiple start points are possible. A single node point also is typically used as a project end
indicator.
Developing a Network---Labeling Nodes
• Nodes representing project activities should be clearly labeled with a
number of different pieces of information.

• It is helpful if the nodes at least contain the following data: (1)

identifier, (2) descriptive label, (3) activity duration, (4) early start
time, (5) early finish time, (6) late start time, (7) late finish time, and
(8) activity float.
Developing a Network---Labeling Nodes

Figure 9.4 Activity Node Labels

Figure 9.3 Labels for Activity Node Using MS Project 2010

• Complete labels on activity nodes make it easier to use the network to perform
additional calculations such as identifying critical path, activity float (or slack), total
project duration, and so on.
Developing a Network---Serial Activities
• Serial activities are those that flow from one to the next, in sequence.
• We cannot begin work on activity B until activity A has been completed.
Activity C cannot begin until both activities A and B are finished.
• Serial activity networks are the simplest in that they create only linkages of
activity sequencing.

Figure 9.5 Project Activities Linked Paper draft in Series

Developing a Network---Concurrent Activities
• it is possible to begin work on more than one activity simultaneously, assuming
that we have the resources available for both.

• When the nature of the work allows for more than one activity to be
accomplished at the same time, these activities are called concurrent, and
parallel project activity paths are constructed through the network.

Figure 9.6 Activities Linked in Parallel (Concurrent)

Developing a Network---Merge Activities

• Merge activities are those with two or

more immediate predecessors.

• Merge activities often are critical

junction points, places where two or
more parallel project paths converge
within the overall network.
Figure 9.7 Merge Activity
Developing a Network---Burst Activities

• Burst activities are those with two or

more immediate successor activities.

• All three successors can only be

undertaken upon the completion of
activity A.

Figure 9.8 Burst Activity

Example 9.1
Example 9.1

Figure 9.10 Complete Activity Network for Project Delta

Example 9.1

Figure 9.11 Developing the Activity Network Using MS Project 2010

Duration Estimation Methods
• Past experience
• Expert opinion
• Mathematical derivation – Beta distribution
• Most likely (m) 2
• Most pessimistic (b) ba
• Most optimistic (a)
Activity Variance = s  
2

 6 

a  4m  b
Activity Duration = TE 
6
Duration Estimation Methods
1. Sketch the network described in the table.
2. Determine the expected duration and variance of each activity.

Task Predecessor a m b
A -- 7 8 15
B A 13 16 19
C A 14 18 22
D B, C 12 14 16
E D 1 4 13
F D 6 10 14
G F, E 11 14 19
Project Management Project Scheduling

1. Sketch the network described in the table.

2. Determine the expected duration and variance of each
activity.

Task Predecessor a m b
A -- 7 8 15
B A 13 16 19
C A 14 18 22
D B, C 12 14 16
E D 1 4 13
F D 6 10 14
G F, E 11 14 19
Duration Estimation Methods

E
B

A D G
C
F
Duration Estimation Methods

Task Predecessor a m b Var. TE

A -- 7 8 15 1.78 9
B A 13 16 19 1 16
C A 14 18 22 1.78 18
D B, C 12 14 16 0.44 14
E D 1 4 13 4 5
F D 6 10 14 1.78 10
G F, E 11 14 19 1.78 14.3
Constructing the Critical Path

• Forward pass – an additive move through the network from start to

finish

• Backward pass – a subtractive move through the network from finish

to start

• Critical path – the longest path from end to end which determines
the shortest project length
Project Delta Information

Project Delta

Activity Description Predecessors Estimated Duration

A Contract signing None 5

B Questionnaire design A 5

C Target market ID A 6

D Survey sample B, C 13

E Develop presentation B 6

F Analyze results D 4

G Demographic analysis C 9
Constructing the Critical Path
Forward Pass

Forward Pass Rules (ES & EF)

1. ES + Duration = EF

2. EF of predecessor = ES of successor

3. Largest preceding EF at a merge point becomes EF

for successor
FIGURE 9.18 Activity Network with Forward Pass
36
Backward Pass

Backward Pass Rules (LS & LF)

1. LF – Duration = LS

2. LS of successor = LF of predecessor

3. Smallest succeeding LS at a burst point becomes LF for

predecessor
FIGURE 9.19 Activity Network with Backward Pass
38
FIGURE 9.20 Project Network with Activity Slack and Critical Path
Note: Critical path is indicated with bold arrows. 39
42
 Let’s suppose that the organization developing Project requires
a 95% likelihood of on-time delivery.

 Under this circumstance, how much additional time should the

project require to ensure a 95% likelihood of on-time
completion?