Probability
Probability
RANDOM EXPERIMENT
A random experiment is an experiment on which
1. The experiment can be repeated any number of times under identical conditions.
2. All possible outcomes of the experiment are known in advance and
3. The actual outcome in a particular case is not known in advance.
E.g. Tossing a coin is an experiment which has only two possible outcomes Head (H) and Tail (T).
ELEMENTARY EVENT
An outcome of a random experiment is called an elementary event or simple event.
e.g. Rolling of an unbiased dice is a random experiment. The possible outcomes in this experiment are 1, 2,
3, 4, 5 and 6. (i.e. we denote the faces of the die with the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6).
Then the outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 are called elementary events of this random experiment.
SAMPLE SPACE
The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiments is called the sample space associated with the
experiment. Sample space of random experiment is denoted with S. The elements in S are also called
sample point.
e.g. If a die is thrown once the sample space for out come is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Hence 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 are
called sample points and elementary events.
EVENT
An event is subset of the sample space. i.e. a collection of elementary events is called an event.
e.g. When we throw a die, the events E1: Occurrence of an even number on the upper most face of the die
and E2: an odd number. i.e. E1 = {2, 4, 6}; E2 = {1, 3, 5} (in this experiment sample space = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
NOTE:
1. The empty set and S, being subsets of S are events called impossible event and certain (or sure) event
respectively.
E.g. While tossing the unbiased coin if it is not fallen drawn is an impossible event and it is fallen down is
certain event.
2. The complement of the event E denoted by Ec is the event given by Ec = S E which is called the
complementary event of E.
E.g. When we throw a die, the event E: occurrence of an even number then event Ec: occurrence of an
odd number.
NOTE:
1. If E1, E2 are mutually exclusive events then E1 E2 =
2. If E1, E2, E3 ……… En are mutually exclusive events.
Then E1 E2 E3 ……. En = .
i.e.
EQUALLY LIKELY
Two or more events are said to be equally likely if there is no reason to expect one of them in preference to
the others. E.g. If a coin is tossed, the occurrence of a head (H) of occurrence of a tail (T) are equally likely.
EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS
Two or more events are said to be exhaustive if the performance of the experiment always results in the
occurrence of atleast one of them i.e. the events E1, E2, E3 ……… Ek are said to be exhaustive if E1 E2
…….. Ek = S ( ).
PROBABILITY
If there are n exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely outcomes of an experiment and n of them are
favourable to an event E. Then the mathematical probability of E is defined as
= .... (1)
Since the number of results or outcomes not favourable to this event is nm, the probability of
nonoccurrence of the event E, denoted by .
= =
= (from (i))
It is clear from the definition that 0 P(E) 1 for any event E.
Illustration 2: Two fair dice are rolled. What is the probability that the sum on the faces of the two dice is
10.
Solution: The sample space of the experiment is
S = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), ………. (1, 6), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3),…. (2, 0), ……… (6, 1), (6, 2), …..
(6, 6)}
n(S) = 36.
Event E: Getting a total score 10.
= {(4, 6), (5, 5), (6, 4)}
n(E) = 3
Illustration 3: A box contains 3 black and 5 white balls. If a ball is drawn at random, what is the probability
that it is (i) black (ii) white?
Solution: n(S) = 8C1 = 8
Event B: getting black ball
n(B) = 3C1 = 3.
Event W: Getting white ball
n(W) = 5C1 = 5.
P(B) =
P(W) =
Solution: ; .
1 : 2.
PROBABILITY FUNCTION
Suppose S is the sample space of a random experiment EP and S is finite. Then a functions P: P(S) R
satisfying the following axioms is called probability function.
(i) P(E) 0 E P(S) (positive axiom)
(ii) P(S) = 1 (completeness axiom)
(iii) If E1, E2 P(S) and E1 E2 = then P(E1 E2) = P(E1) + P(E2) (union axioms)
for each E P(S), the number P(E) is called the “Probability of the event E”. In this case E = {a} is singleton.
We write P(a) instead of .
NOTE: In case S is countable finite (iii) in the above the definition has to be replaced by (iii) If {En} is a
Illustration 5: Let S = {1, 2, 3, 4}, P(1)=0.1, P(2) = 0.1, P(3) = 0.4, P(4) = x.
Define P(A) = for any subset A of S. If P is a probability function. Then find the value
of x.
Solution: Given P is a probability function.
P(S) = 1
NOTE: Suppose S is the sample space of random experiment. Let P be probability function of P(S). Then
(i) P() = 0.
(ii) If E1 E2 then P(E2 E1) = P(E2) P(E1)
(iii) If E1 E2 then P(E1) P(E2)
Proof: Case I: E1 E2 = .
P(E1 E2) = 0.
If E1 E2 =
P(E1 E2) = P(E1) + P(E2)
= P(E1) + P(E2) 0.
= P(E1) + P(E2) P(E1 E2).
Case II: E1 E2
E1 E2 = E1 (E2 E1) and E1 (E2 E1) =
According to union axiom
P(E1 E2) = P(E1 (E2 E1) = P(E1) + P(E2 E1) . . . . (i)
E2 E1 = E2 (E1 E2) and E1 E2 E2.
P(E2 E1) = P(E2 (E1 E2)
= P(E2) P(E1 E2) . . . . (ii)
From (i) and (ii)
P(E1 E2) = P(E1) + P(E2) P(E1 E2)
Illustration 6: What is the probability of drawing an ace or a spade a well shuffled pack of 52 cards.
Solution: n(S) = 52C1 = 52.
Event E1 : Drawing a spade n(E1) = 13C1 = 13.
Event E2 : Drawing an ace n(E2) = 4C1 = 4.
Event E1E2: Drawing a spade and an ace n (E1 E2) = 1.
Event E1E2: Drawing a spade or ace.
P(E) = , P(E2) = , P(E1E2) =
Illustration 8: Suppose A and B are events with P(A) = 0.5; P(B) = 0.4 and P(AB) = 0.3. Find the
probability that
(i) A does not occur
(ii) Either A or B occur.
(iii) Neither A nor B occur.
Solution: Given P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.4; P(AB) = 0.3.
(i) A does not occur mean Ac.
P(Ac) = 1 P(A) = 1 0.5 = 0.5
(ii) Either A or B occur means A B.
P(AB) = P(A)+P(B) P(AB) = 0.5 + 0.4 0.3 = 0.6
(iii) Neither A nor B occurs means (AB)c
P(AB)c = 1 P(AB) = 1 0.6 = 0.4.
Illustration 9: A, B, C are 3 news papers from a city 20% of the population read A, 16% read B, 14% read C
8% both A and B, 5% both A and C, 4% both B and C and 2% all the three. Find the
percentage of the population who read atleast one news paper.
, P(BC) = , P(AC) =
= = = 35%
Exercise 1.
(i) (a) Find the probability that nonleap year contains (i) 53 Sundays (ii) 52 Sundays only.
(b) What is probability that leap year will contain 53 Sundays?
(ii) If 6 cards are drawn at random from a pack of cards, then find the probability to get 3 red and 3 black
cards.
(iii) Suppose S = {1, 2, 3, 4} is the sample space of a random experiment. Suppose P(1) = x, P(2) = 2x,
P(3) = 3x and P(4) = 4x, where P is a probability function. Find x.
(iv) In a box containing 15 bulbs, 5 are defective. If 5 bulbs are selected at random from the box find the
probability of the event, that (a) none of them is defective (b) only one them is defective (c) atleast
one of them is defective.
(v) The probability for a contractor to get a road contract is 2/3 and to get a building contract is 5/9. The
probability to get atleast one contract is 4/5. Find the probability that he gets both the contracts.
CONDITIONAL EVENT
Suppose A and B are two events of a random experiment then the event of happening B after the happening
of A” is called a “conditional event and is denoted by B/A. Similalry A/B states for the event happening of A
after the happening of B.
Note: is called the conditional probability of B after the happening of A i.e. probability of B given A. It
= .
INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Two or more events are said to be independent if the happening or nonhappening of any one of the event
does not effect the probability of happening or nonhappening of any other event.
i.e. Two events A and B are independent if P(AB) = P(A).P(B).
e.g. When a card is drawn from a pack of well shuffled cards and replaced before drawing the second
card. The result of second draw is independent of the first one. However, if the first card is not replaced, the
second draw is dependent of the first one.
Illustration 11: A bag contains 7 green, 4 white and 5 red balls. If four balls are drawn one by one with
replacement. What is the probability that none is red?
Solution: Total number of balls in a bag = 7 + 4 + 5 = 16.
Number of nonred balls = 7 + 4 = 11.
Probability of getting a nonred ball in a single draw is = .
Required probability = .
Illustration 12: If events A and B are given to independent. Find P(B) if it is given that P(A) = 0.25 and
P(AB) = 0.60.
Solution: Given P(A) = 0.25; P(AB) = 0.60
Let P(B) = x.
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB).
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) P(A). P(B). [ A and B are independent events]
0.60 = 0.25 + x 0.25x 0.60 0.25 = 0.75x
0.35 = 0.75 x
and
We have to find
4. Notation
(a) A, B are events of a sample space S
(i) B occurs whenever A occurs AB
denoted by .
9. Conditional probability: E1 and E2 are two events in a sample space S and P(E1) 0. The probability
of E2, after the event E1 has occurred, is called the conditional probability of the event of E2 given E1.
11. Three events E1, E2, E3 are mutually independent or simply independent if
(i) P(E1E2) = P(E1).P(E2), P(E2E3) = P(E2).P(E3), P(E1E3) = P(E1).P(E3)
(ii) P(E1E2E3) = P(E1).P(E2).P(E3).
SOLVED PROBLEMS
Subjective
Prob 1. A room has 3 lamps. From a collections of 10 light bulbs of which 6 are not good. A person select
5 at random and puts them in a socket. Find the probability that he will have light.
Sol: There are 10 bulbs in all and of there 3 can be selected is ways
n(S) = 120
Let A be the event of getting light. Then denotes the event of having no light. Now 6 bulbs are
not good. Hence the number of ways in which all not good bulbs are chosen are
= 20
P(A) = 1 .
Prob 2. The probability that a contractor will get a plumbing contract is 2/3 and the probability that he will not
get an electric contract is 5/9. If the probability of getting atleast one contract is 4/5. what is the
probability that he will get both.
Sol: Let A be the event that the contractor will get the plumbing contract and B, that he will get the
electric contract.
P(A) = 2/3, P(B) = 4/5 and P(AB) = 4/5,
P(B) = 1 P(Bc) =
Prob 3. A bag contains 6 white and 9 black balls. Four balls drawn at a time. Find the probability for the
first draw to give four white and second draw to give four black balls in each of the following cases.
(i) The balls are replaced before the second drawn.
(ii) The balls are not replaced before the second drawn.
Sol: No. of white balls = 6
NO. of black balls = 9
Total no. of balls = 15.
Event A: Getting 4 white balls in first draw.
Event B: Getting 4 black balls is second draw.
Event A B: Getting 4 white balls in first drawn and getting 4 black balls in second drawn.
(i) When the balls are replaced before the second drawn
P(B) =
P(A B) = P(A).P(B) =
(ii) When the balls are not replaced before second drawn
(since the balls are not been replaced the bag contains 2 white and 9 black balls)
Prob 4. (i) Two fair dice are rolled what is the probability that the sum on the faces of the two deice is 10?
(ii) If one ticket is randomly selected from tickets numbered 1 to 30, then find the probability that the
number on the ticket is a multiple of 3 or 5.
P(E1) = = =
Prob 5. If A and B are independent events with P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.5, find (i) P(A/B) (ii) P(B/A) (iii) P(A B)
(iv) P(AB).
Sol: Given P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.5
We have A and B are independent events
(i) P(A/B) = P(A) = 0.2
(ii) P(B/A) = P(B) = 0.5
(iii) P(A B) = P(A).P(B) = 0.2 0.5 = 0.1
(iv) P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B) = 0.2 + 0.5 0.1 = 0.6