63 Binomiat DistriBution 63.1 BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION P(r)= "C, p’- g*- To ind the probability of the happening of an event once, twice, thrice, .... times... exactly inn trials, Let the probability of the happening of an event Ain one trial be p and its probability of not happening be 1p = 4. ‘Weassume that there are trials and the happening of the event 4 is timesand its mot happening, ism—r times, A Asse AAA > times n—r times ay A indicates its happening, 1 its failure and P(A)=pand P ‘We see that (1) has the probability PP B 99nd = PQ =P gt Q) times n—r times Clearly (1) is merely one order of arranging rs. ‘The probability of (1) = p’ q"’ x Number of different arrangements of rA’s and (1-1) 7) :. Probability of the happenit PO) Cpl gnr (r= (r+ Ith term of (g + py If r= 0, probability of happening of an event 0 times ="C, q"p"= q" 1, probability of happening of an event 1 time = "C, q*"' p 2, probability of happening of an event 2 times = "C, q*-? p* If r= 3, probability of happening of an event 3 times = "C, q”-> p? and so on. ‘These terms are clearly the successive terms in the expansion of (q+ p)". Hence itis called Binomial Distribution. Example 1. Find the probability of getting 4 heads in 6 tosses of a fair coin. 1 Solution. p= > .q =>. m= 6.0 = We know that PO) = "Cg" ph 6xs(1¥ (1) 1y _ 15 pane, ae pt = S3(2) (HY ats) = ame 1062nomial Distribution 1663 Example2. [fon an average one ship in every ten is wrecked. find the probability that out of 5 ships expected to arrive, 4 atleast will arrive safely: Solution. Out of 10 ships, one ship is wrecked. ‘e., Nine ships out of ten ships are safe. 9 P (safety) = (Atleast 4 ships out of 5 are safe) = P (4 or 5)= P(4) + P(S) 9 (1) (9 (9 (5,9) 7/9) capac, “365 ) (is)*Go) -(3) Go w)"3(00) Ans ae #590) lio) *b10) ~ baa) (iota) * sh Example3. The overall percentage of failures in a certain examination is 20. If six candidates appear in the examination, what is the probability that at least five pass the examination? 1 Solution. Probability of failures = 20% = 555 = 5 Probability of pass (P) = 1—= Probability of at least five pass = P (5 or 6) ay) (ay 4)’ _ 2048 = = Cyp'a+'cp'e =6(4) (1)4(4 24) = 208 revsmo='Grentcatd (3) (3)+(3) (3) 338 = 0.65536, ‘Ans. Example 4, Zen percent of screws produced in a certain factory urn out to be defective. Find ‘he probability that ina sample of 10 screws chosen at random, exactly wo will be defective. 1 Solution, p =75. Gal r=2 "C. pra » oY 10x91 (9¥ 1 (9) 5 SB) 210x9(1) (9) 21/9) corss7 a ( (3) Talis) (3) Ce) os Ans Examples Thephabilty tr aman ged wiivetobe 01 065 Whats te obit ilo of tmen ow 66a eat? net be70 sotton- The pba tt smn ged wine tobe 0p 0.65 Sanber of me == 10 Probab t tas non (7 F809 oF 1) wile 70 ap cy PO) PO) # PUD MC Ps MCE + Garp = 028 93570657 +12 (057 [10 0387+ 15.0357 065 +1903, 0497+0657 (0.65) x 125 [120 = (0.07Y + 45 = (0.07) (0.13) + 100.07) 0.13) + (0.13))] 0.04902 = 125 [0.04 + 0.028665 + 0.011830 + 0.002197] Example 6 /10%of tots proce by amachneare dene Deemine he probity tar onto ba eset) nan) mano be ‘cme Saution, Pail of dete bots Prt oft dfcvebols == 1 (0:35)*(0.65 +10(0:35) (0.65) +(0.65)" 10% = 0.1 =0.1=0.91664 Higher Engineering Mathematics Total number of bolts = n= 10 (© Probability of 1 defective bolt (i) Probability that none is defective = 86,0.) (9 = 03874 Probability of 0 defective bolt =P(O)="C, (A)? 09)” = 0.3487 C, 0.1)" (0.9) = 0.1937 P( orlor 2) P() + PCI) +P Q)= 0.3487 + 0.3874 + 0.1937 = 0.9298 ‘Ans. Example 7. An underground mine has 5 punps installed for pumping out storm water, the (a) Probability of 2 defective Probability of at most 2 defective 1 ‘probability of any one of the pumps failing during the storm is. What is the probability that ()) at least 2 pumps will be working; (i) all the pumps will be ‘working during a particular storm ? 1 Solution. (() Probability of pump failing = y 1 71 Probability of pump working = !~g=g> P= Gg. a= ye "= ( P (Atleast 2 pumps working) = P (or 3 or 4 or 5 pumps working) = PQ)+PG)+PU) + PO)='C, PG HC, PE HC, pg CPE OOOO) = Lossy tocsases.c4ot e697 32732 _ 8183 8 8192 y 16807 Wn Patbespampsvoning) =P) ~'Gp-(?) =! ans 9 2 * 32768 si92 © 32768 Example 8. Hrile two-three areas where binomial distribution is applied. The probability of ‘entering student in chartered accountant will be graduate 0.5. Determine the probability that ou of 10 students (i) none (i) one or (iti) atleast one will graduate. (RGRL, Bhopal, Dec., 2003) Solution, Given, the probability ofan entering student in chartered accountant will graduate is p=05 ‘The probability of an entering student in charactered accountant will not graduate = G1490+3490+12005 + 16807 isq=05, ‘Therefore (© The probability of none will graduate out of 10 students P@) = "C, p? q®="C, (0.5) (0.5)! = 9.765625 » 10-* Ans. (jd) The probability of exactly one student will graduate out of 10 students P() = "C, (05)! 0.5) = 10 «0.5 * 0.5)? = 9.765625 «10° Ans. (Gil) The probability of at least one will graduate out of 10 students P (Atleast one) = 1 ~ (probability of none will graduats) = 9.765625 * 10*= 0,99 Ans. l Example9. — The probability that a bomb dropped from a plane will strike the target is 3 y six bombs are dropped, find the probability that: (0 Exactly tvo will strike the target. (4) At least evo will strike the target. (R.GRK:, Bhopal, II Semester, Feb. 2006)Binomial Distribution 1665 1 Solution, Here, P=5- n=6 Weknow that P(r) ="C pq" pay='c,(2) (2) =15(285)- 258 -o2ssre s)\s 15625)” 3125 P (at least 2) = P 2, 3,4, 5,6) = PQ)+PG)+P@)+P)+PO) (0) +P (1) +P.Q)+PG)+P A) +P.) +P )-PO-P() =P +P) [+O] 3625 24576 Hence ()P EXERCISE 63.1 If 20% of the bolts produced by a machine are defective, determine the probability that out of 4 bots chosen at random @ ao (©) At most2 bolts will be defective Ans. (a) 0.4096, (6) 0.4096, (€) 0.9728 2. Six dice are thrown 729 times. How many times do you expect at least three dive to show a five ora six? ‘Ans. 233 3. Find the probability of geting a total of 7 at east once in 4 tosses of pair of fir dice? on (AMLE,, Winter 2002) Ans, 22 1296 Ifthe chance that ny one ofthe 10 telephone lines is busy at any instant is 02, what i the chance that S ‘ofthe lines are busy ? What i the probability that all the lines are busy ? ‘Ans "C, (02) (08), (02)" esto $ men, all of identical age it good health. According to the ‘An insurance salesman sells pol ste oy ts an oh pir a 0s i 2. te poy et 3 (@) All men (@) Atleast 3 men (©) Only 2men __ (d)At least | man will be alive. afONigg tes nO Oe wit “ 75 243 © 243 t DB 6 comin ia ih ane en psy eg ee A som na coin falls head, a white ball is placed in the urn, and if the coin falls tail, a red ball is placed in urn. (i) iar antic cosa hha att eye Lan Ans gs (ig Abox contains 10 serews, 3 of which are defective. Two serews are drawn at random without replacement, Find the probability that none of the two serews is defective. ‘ama 2 15 8. Out of 800 families with four children each, how many families would be expected to have (2 boys and 2 girls; i) at least one boy; (i) no git, (iv) at most two girls? Assume equal probabilities for boys and gil ‘Ans. (9 300, (i) 750, (it) 50, () 550. 9. In hundle race, a player as to cross 10 hurdles. The probability that he will elear each hurdle is 516 ‘What isthe probability that he wall knock down less than 2 hurdles ? A (3)