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DEVELOPMENT, VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE CAPACITY OF

ALEXANDRIA COASTAL ZONE: A REVIEW

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 Research and Technology Development for Sustainable Water Resources
Management conference, (REDWARM), 4-6 December 2016, Cairo, Egypt

DEVELOPMENT, VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE CAPACITY

OF ALEXANDRIA COASTAL ZONE: A REVIEW
*Hala O. Abayazid, *Moheb M. Iskander, *Ahmed E. El Kut and **Mohamed A. Soliman
*Hydrodynamic department, Coastal Research Institute, National Water Research Center, E-mail:
[email protected]
**Coastal Research Institute Director, National Water Research Center, E-mail: [email protected]
Abstract
Alexandria is a principal coastal city in Egypt. Beside its cultural richness, the city hosts
major commercial and fishing harbors, industrial facilities as well as favorable recreational
sandy beaches. While sustainable development dectates reducing losses and harmful
consequences, concerns of climate change impact require further measures for strengthened
resilience. This research first presents a review of transformations in Alexandria coastal zone;
basic characteristics and progressive developments. Based on morphological features,
Alexandria was divided into three sectors, and hence analyzed with variability in coastal
hydrodynamics, sea bed properties and sediment transport behavior. Coastal protection works
are also investigated; in terms of structural nature, age, effectiveness and functional condition.
With potential threats of climate change, the research then addresses vulnerability versus
resilience capacity of Alexandria to projected Sea Level Rise (SLR). Field surveys and Earth
observation imageries were used for updated characterization. Assessment of vulnerability to
SLR scenarios was treated using collective inputs; including, physical features (topography
and land subsidence rate) and socioeconomic structure (population density and land uses).
Accordingly, vulnerability state were categorized into five levels (very low, low, medium,
high and very high). Results of resilience to inundation show considerably higher near-shore
land levels occupying a narrow strip, backed with low-lying areas, south of Alexandria, that
are severely exposed to inundation hazard. It is concluded that protection from seaward
direction, with coastal structures and elevated near-shore topography, can alleviate direct
flooding and storm surge impact. Yet spotted inland depressions are expected to endure
threats of salt water intrusion, groundwater rise, drainage problems and concerns of
infrastructure safety.
The research covers multi-aspect perspective and pave the way for preparing integrated
precautionary plan to face climate change with effective resilient strategy that safeguard
investments, infrastructure and potential expansion of Alexandria city.
Keywords: Protection works, climate change, development, Vulnerability, Alexandria coast.

1. Introduction
Alexandria is a principal coastal city, and considered as the second capital of Egypt, located in
the western side of the Nile Delta. Characterized by semi-arid Mediterranean subtropical
climate with pleasant climate and sandy beaches, Alexandria is considered the most popular
seaside tourist resort in Egypt. It also plays an essential role in Egyptian economy as the
country’s oldest and largest port. The city hosts five harbors: three commercial harbors, and
two fishing harbors. Most of Egypt’s foreign trade passes through its harbors, representing 75
percent of the total capacity of Egypt’s Mediterranean seaport. Additionally, Alexandria hosts
about 40% of Egypt industries, and acquired special cultural status, with rich heritage and
internationally acknowledge library.
Growing population, large-scaled industrialization and development policies have put a heavy
pressure on the city’s natural resources. Moreover, proved impact of climate change raised
further concerns on sustainability as well as resilient capacity.
This research study intends to cover multi-aspects of the evolving state in Alexandria,
investigate current protection condition and reliability degree, and feature hotspots of concern.
With established background information and change dynamics, assessment of development
versus ability for sustainability, as well as vulnerability to climate change versus preparedness
and resilience capacity can be specified. The research defines main factors to be considered in
setting an integrated plan to face climate change impact while safeguarding development
processes; investments, infrastructure and potential expansion of Alexandria city.

2. Materials & Field Work Activities

2.1 Study Area

Alexandria is located in the west side of the Nile Delta, between latitudes (31o 03/ N, 31o 18/
N) and longitudes (29o 40/ E, 30o 05/ E), figure (1). It was initially built on a narrow,
partially elevated, coastal ridge between Lake Maryut to the south and the Mediterranean Sea
to the north. Alexandria official urban boundaries comprise seven districts, Al-Montazah,
Sharq (East), Wassat (Middle), Gharb (West), Al-Gomruq, Al-Agamy and Al-Amreia, with
further expansion with the Borg Al-Arab city, figure (2), and hosts an ever-growing
population over 4.0 millions. (AASTMT and Egis Bceom, 2011).
2.2 Field Survey & Data Collection
The Coastal Research Institute (CoRI) of the National Water Research Center (NWRC) has
had a monitoring program during the period from 1998 to 2005 to follow changes, stability as
well as environmental impacts of the coastal structures, covering;
 Shoreline detection between El Montaza and Eastern harbor twice/year
 Hydrographic survey for the study area twice/year
 Bed sediment sampling twice/year
The shoreline and hydrographic surveys of the study area was done using the DGPS GBX-
Pro, Echo sounder and Marine survey software named “CoRI”.
In 2016, Alexandria seafront topography was surveyed for the area from El Mandara to Glim,
covering a seaside strip from Cornish road up till 1500 m legth inland, using total station, in
order to identify vulnerable and low-land areas. To cover extended region and have more
specification of deppresions and vulnerable areas to inundation risk, analysis of satellite
images, namely; the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission And Reflection Radiometer ,
Global Digital Elevation Model ((ASTER GDEM) Version 2, the Shuttle Radar Topography
Mission (SRTM) images, and Google earth-based contouring were performed in parallel.

3. Change with Natural & Man-Made Developments

3.1 Morphology Characteristics & Sea Bed Sediment

3.1.1 Morphology Characteristics
Originally, the general feature of morphology for this coastal region is characterized by a
group of parallel limestone ridges that extend with the seaside while producing long valley in
between. However, most of these ridges disappeared due to the descending phenomenon,
throughout thousand years. The Scientists return the cause of descending ridge to bending
under the load of Nile Delta sediment and the addition of wind borne material on top, (Philip,
1975). Yet, as illustrated in figure (1), the original coastal morphology still appears clearly
west of Alexandria. Ridges in Alexandria shelf frequently emerge above the Mean Sea Level
(MSL) in parts of the city coast, forming a series islets parallel to the coastline, while other
parts appear as beach rock, (Misdorp et Sestini, 1975).
Figure 1: Morphological features of Alexandria & Northwestern Delta of Egypt, (after Frihy
et al., 2004)

34,000 17,000 0 34,000 Meters

Figure 2: Official urban districts of Alexandria

Reviewed literature presented three main morphological characteristics of Alexandria; seaside
ridges, Maryut valley, and The medium hill chain. Seaside ridges were dune made of
white Oolitic and Pseudo-Oolitic Calcareous sand grains (Philip, 1975), with 400 to 900 m
width, and height ranged from 3 to 10 m that increase toward south. These ridges descended
in level and followed by group of islets parallel to the coastline. The Maryut valley is a
narrow valley between the seaside ridges and the medium hill chain, with width not exceeding
one kilometer. The medium hill limestone chain vary in height, ranging between 10 to 30 m,
and width, reaching its maximum width at El-Montaza (2.0 km). Its location may come
directly on seaside, for example in Ibrahimeya, while exist one kilometer away from
shoreline in other places.

The coastline of Alexandria can be divided into three sectors based on sediment and
morphological characteristics Figure (3); the western sector from El Agami to the western
border with straight, carbonate-sand beaches; the Harbor and ports sector; encompass EL
Dekhaila port, Western port and Eastern harbors with dense coastal structures, the eastern
sector from El Silcila to Abu Quir headland that is mostly rocky and comprising low sea cliffs
and offshore shoals. These sectors of Alexandria shore contain major headlands at; El Agami,
QuaitBey, El Silcila, El Montaza and Abu Quir that extend into the surf zone, confining the
beach sands to littoral-cell embayment and pocket beaches, with little or no bypassing. This
phenomenon implies that the long-term net littoral drift in beaches is close to zero, (Frihy et
al., 2004).
 Figure 3: Main sectors of Alexandria coastal zone based on morphological & sediment
characteristics
A. Eastern Sector
The eastern sector extends from El Silcila to Abu Quir, with undulating shoreline that often
interrupted by rocky headlands, forming embayment and pocket beaches ranging between 0.3
and 1.5 km in length. Coast is mostly rocky, characterized by low sea cliffs and offshore
shoals, leaving few narrow sandy beaches. With their 1:30 slope and crescent-shaped sand
bars, these beaches are moderately dissipative of wave energy, associated with rip currents,
which are hazardous to swimmers (Iskander, 2000). Inshore zone contains outcrops of
emerged and submerged rocky islets, aligned parallel to the shoreline, that extend about 300
m into the sea and act as natural wave breakers.
Beach and seabed sediments are originally composed of biogenic carbonate-rich, varying
from loose to fairly well-indurated deposits of shell fragments, quartz, heavy minerals and
other debris (Hilmy, 1951 and El-Wakeel and El-Sayed, 1977). Sediments are derived
primarily from the adjacent Pleistocene limestone ridges located along the western coast of
Alexandria and the local rocky limestone outcrops. Other sources may be sediments
discharged from El-Mahmoudia Canal, El-Umoum outfall and the desert during beach
nourishment projects that are frequently carried out on most of Alexandria beaches. However,
major part of Alexandria beaches is experiencing active erosion and sand losses (El-Wakeel
et.al., 1980; Iskander, 2000 and Frihy et al., 2004).
B. Harbor and Ports Sector:
This sector consists of EL Dekhaila port, Western port and Eastern harbor. The eastern harbor
of Alexandria extends for about 2.0 km between El-Silcila promontory in the east and the
western harbor in the west, with average depth of 8 m. The area outside the eastern harbor is
part of the continental shelf where the depth gradually increases to about 50 m at 8 km from
the shore. Currently, the eastern harbor coast is covered by concrete blocks at the toe of the
Corniche sea wall, leaving almost no sandy beaches. Vertical face of the sea wall and
disappearance of sandy beaches are causing the overtopping and the flooding of the Corniche
road during storms.
The Western port of Alexandria is the largest and oldest port on the Egyptian Mediterranean
coast, serving about 75% of Egypt’s international trade. It is a shallow, elliptically shaped,
semi-enclosed basin with an area of 7.4 km2 and depth range of 5.5–16 m. The port was
naturally formed during the Pre-Holocene subsidence and the subsequent transgression of the
sea (Butzer, 1960) and Calcareous marine deposits cover the continental shelf surrounding the
port. Wastewaters of variable quality are discharged into the port, mainly from Al-Umoum
Drain and the Noubaria Canal (Dorgham et al., 2004), as well as industrial facilities, e.g.
chlorine-alkali plant, Chemical Industry and Portland cement factories, (Mostafa and Barakat,
2004).
With increasing activities and growth of industrial developments, Dekhaila port was
established as an extended benefit of west Delta free zone. This port has a gulf shape with 12
m depth and port area of 32.5 km2. The navigational channel is 25 m wide and 24 m Depth.
C. El-Agami Sector:
El–Agami coastal sector has almost straight shoreline, with white carbonate sandy beaches of
variable width. Origin of the sand is mostly transported from eroded and disintegrating
limestone ridges running parallel to the coastline in the backshore as well as the upland areas
from Alexandria to Sallum. During last decades, human interference was pronounced, in form
of increasing developments and dense tourist village constructions, causing disturbance of
littoral system and hence the stability of the coastal zone.
3.1.2 Sea Bed Sediment Properties
In general, sediments of Alexandria coast consist of mixed carbonate/siliciclastic sand in the
east and change to pure white carbonate material in the west. Analysis of grained sand
population reveal mean grain sizes (0.36, 0.33 and 0.34 mm) for Eastern, Harbors and Ports
and El-Agami sector, respectively. Examined sediments were found predominantly medium,
moderately well sorted and mainly transported by traction-siltation modes, (Fekry, 2008).
Grain size distribution also showed increase in seaward direction. The fine/ medium-grained
sediment (0.15–0.45 mm) covers the nearshore zone, while the coarse grained sediments
(>0.45–1.0 mm) found further offshore beyond 8 to 10 m depth contour. Meanwhile beach
profile analyses determined the closure depth, beyond which there is no significant net
sediment transport, to be located between 8 and 10 m water depths, (Iskander,2000 and Frihy
et al., 2004).

3.2 Shoreline Changes

Alexandria has special features in coastline and nearshore zone that affects sediment transport
behavior and shoreline changes. Characterized by rocky headland, complex bathymetry of
reefs, rocky outcrops/islets, pocket and narrow beaches, the three sectors have experienced
changes identified by early scholars. In 1980, El-Wakeel et. al. used two series of maps
(1934-1936 and 1976) and aerial photos (1955-1956), and concluded that erosion rate of
eastern sector shoreline is considered fairly small with an average rate of 0.2 m/year. Similar
results were found by Frihy et al. (1992) and Dewidar (1992) with analysis of aerial photos of
1955 and 1983. In 1996, Sogreah compared the coastline between 1992 aerial photograph and
1995 bathymetric survey and detected coastline rotation at El-Mandara area with respect to
the shoreline center, advancing in the eastern part and retreating in the western part of the
order of ten meters. Iskander (2000) analyzed the hydrographic survey data of the eastern
sector for the period from 1986 to 1998, and found that this sector has a partially dynamic
equilibrium. It was concluded that beach nourishment projects succeeded in stopping retreat
of Alexandria beach. Later, Fekry (2008) studied the shoreline changes during the period from
October 2003 to October 2004 and found that the erosion area in winter season changes to
accretion one during the Summer season. Widening of the Corniche road caused
disappearance for most of beaches within this sector, which required recreating by sand
nourishment.
Shoreline of the harbor and ports sector is mostly controlled by man-made coastal structures;
seawall, revetment…etc, except for small narrow pocket beaches which face minor retreat.
The western sector, based on the Admiralty survey of 1920 and land survey of 2003, was
found predominantly retreating, yet with minor rate of 0.11 m/year, Fekry (2008). However, it
was found that the shoreline retreat rate increases eastward and reaches its maximum value of
0.26 m/year at El-Agami headland.

3.3 Sediment Transport and Volumetric Changes

Sediment budget and nearshore volumetric changes were assessed using the nearshore profile
data and contour maps. Also the result of fluorescent tracer experiments were considered to
follow the sediment transport rate and direction.
A. Eastern Sector
Sogreah (1996) used the GENESIS computation code to study the longshore sediment
transport along the Alexandria coast. It was found that sediment transport is relatively well
balanced and the net transport is practically zero. Similarly, Iskander (2000) analyzed data for
the period from 1986 to 1998, and concluded that the areas of accretion were approximately
equal to the areas of erosion, figures (4&5). Also, Frihy et al. (2004) used hydrographic
surveys for the period from 1998 to 2000 and concluded that while gaining sediment in
summer and loosing sediment in winter , the littoral volumetric change remained nearly
constant. The compartment nature of the bedrock, together with the two main headlands at El
Silcila and El Montaza supported by the closure depth (8–10 m) trap sediment within the
littoral cell.
B. Harbors and Ports Sector
The change in sediment characteristics and bathymetry deformation within the harbor sector
during the period from 1936 to 1989 indicated that erosion is the predominant feature inside
the harbor, whereas accretion was locally occurred at the western and the eastern sides of the
harbor, (Lotfy and Badr ,1998 and Fekry, 2008).
C. El-Agami Sector
Following the changes in the bathymetry profiles during the period from 1920 to 2003 within
El Agami sector indicated predominant erosion, with minor accretion spots.
While littoral volumetric change found to remain well balanced, offshore and rip currents
cause seaward drift and sediment movements that are mostly responsible for the Alexandria
beach erosion (El-Fishawi, 1994 and Rashed, 1997). And are not compensated by any natural
inflow from neighboring beaches.
 Figure 4: Sediment volume rate between contour 2m depth to contour 7m depth During the
period from June 1986 to June 1998, within the eastern sector, (after Iskander, 2000).

Figure 5: Accretion (A) and erosion (E) areas along the Alexandria coast during the period from
June 1986 to June 1998, (after Iskander, 2000).
3.4 Coastal Topography
Early studies indicated main characteristics of coastal topography of the Nile delta. Alexandria
seafront is featured by a narrow coastal strip on a raised ridge, with average level of +4m above
Mean Sea Level (MSL), backed by inland low-lying areas, mainly below MSL; such as, Abu
Quir natural depression (former lagoon), Maryut lake, aquaculture pond bordering the southern
part, (AASTMT and Egis Bceom, 2011).

Within the framework of the present study, updated topographical data collected and earth
observation imageries have been used to generate a comprehensive elevation map to Alexandria.
Field surveys covering the coastal strip, northern part of urbanized region, of Alexandria were
carried out, and results are shown in figure (6) . Meanwhile complementary data were sought
from satellite imagery analysis. Three different remote sensing sources were used; the Advanced
Spaceborne Thermal Emission And Reflection Radiometer, Global Digital Elevation Model
(ASTER GDEM) VERSION 2, the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) images, and
Google earth-based contouring process. While slight differences can be detected in the produced
topographic features among the results of the three remotely sensed data sources, yet the main
pattern is confirmed, figure (7, 8 & 9), respectively. Results show considerably higher near
shoreline land levels, backed with low level areas.
 ±
1,750 875 0 1,750 Meters

Level (m)

Figure 6: Result topography from field surveys covering urban coastal strip
Figure 7: Topography derived from SRTM images
Figure 8: Topography derived from ASTER images
 Figure 9: Google earth-based contouring.

3.5 Coastal Protection Works Development in Coastal Structures

The first coastal structure used in Alexandria was the commercial and military harbor, which was
built west of Pharos Island about 1800 B.C. The harbor was considered as the most sophisticated
man-made harbor of that era, with main basin of 2,300 m long, 300 m width and 6-10 m depth
(CEM, 2003). In recent age, years 1928 and 1929 have witnessed restoration and new
constructions for western and eastern harbors. In 1934, a highway was constructed along the
coast, called Corniche road , that connects El-Montaza palace to the east by Ras Eltine to the
west, with a total length of 20 km. The Corniche road was constructed backed with a seawall
protecting the road. However, the distance between the Corniche road and the shoreline
gradually decreased due to the dynamics of waves and currents, and some beaches eventually
disappeared. Hence, overtopping problem also appeared in these eroded areas, affecting
functionality and traffic flow on the road. Maintenance program was applied by placing 4 tons
concrete cubes directly at the toe of the Corniche to prevent erosion, yet missing filter material
caused further problems.
In 1984, Shore Protection Authority (SPA) with Tetra Tech suggested the first master plan to
protect Alexandria coast, (Tetra Tech, 1986). The plan comprise measures; such as, sand beach
nourishment combined with offshore segmented breakwater and/or groin system in specific
vulnerable region, such as in El-Shatby, Stanley, El-Asafra, El-Mandara and Abu-Quir, (Frihy
and Dean, 1992; Sogreah, 1996 and Iskander, 2000). However, hard engineering protections
result in negative side effects on water circulation pattern as well as quality state, (Abayazid,
2010). In 1998, a four year project was implemented over five successive phases to widen the
Corniche road and smooth sharp curvatures which would upgrade traffic flow to meet demands
for Alexandria city development. The road also accommodated walkways and park areas along
the seaward side. The road is now 45 m, instead of 28 m, wide over the distance between El-
Montaza and El-Silcila. As a consequence, More than 50 % of Alexandria sandy beaches have
been narrowed or even totally disappeared in certain regions, (AASTMT and Egis Bceom, 2011).
Continuous attempts of observation and remedial actions have been carried out. Through the
period from1999 and 2008, a number of coastal protection structures , e.g. detached
breakwaters and nearshore groins systems, were constructed in regions suffer severe beach
erosion, for example Cleopatra beach, San Stefano - Gleem region, El Montaza - El Asafra
region..etc.

3.6 Sea Level Rise & Land Subsidence

Historical relative sea level rise for about six decades, from 1944 to 2006, were found by
analyzed monthly tide-gauge records in Alexandria western harbor, indicating 1.6 to 2.0
mm/year range. Meanwhile measured data at Abu Quir harbor from 1992 to 2005 show average
sea level rise of 3.4 mm/year, (Sharaf El Din et al., 1989; El Fishawi, 1993; Frihy, 2003; and
AASTMT and Egis Bceom, 2011). However, these measurements provide collective effect of
SLR and land subsidence as well.

Nile delta coastal zone has an inherited land subsidence phenomenon that amplify the sea level
rise effect. Subsidence along Alexandria coastal region have been addressed by a number of
studies, (El Sayed, 1988; Dewidar, 1992 and El Shinnawy et al., 2010), concluding subsidence
range of 0.4 to 1.2 mm/ year. More recent study supported by the European Space Agency (ESA)
mapped the ground motion for widely covered urban and rural areas of Alexandria. Results show
that less than 1.2% experience positive movements (uplift), while negative movement
(subsidence) proved the dominant phenomenon. Rate of subsidence was found range from 0.4
mm/ year (based on ERS satellite images from 1992 to 2000) to 9 mm /year (based on ENVISAT
images from 2003 to 2009). Results also define the most affected areas within Alexandria city to
be along Lake Maryut northern border, as well as the southern section of the city between Gharb
district and Abu Quir, (AASTMT and Egis Bceom, 2011).

4. Vulnerability Versus Resielient Capacity

4.1 Climate Change: SLR & Storm Surge
Alexandria meteorological data collected over last decades show trends of increasing heat waves
as well as changing intensity of precipitations with frequent violent storms in winter season,
(AASTMT and Egis Bceom, 2011). Meanwhile, regional studies indicate climatic changes-
related absolute Sea Level Rise (SLR) and storm surge events. Variability in climate change and
SLR scenarios presented in IPCC reports has been addressed with attempts to downscaling as
well as evaluation of protection measure role,(El Shinnawy et al., 2010). The study revealed
potential SLR of 34cm and 72cm by year 2050 and 2100, respectively. Moderate change in
predicted SLR was stated in the most recent IPCC-RCP scenarios (2013), with SLR range from
26 cm (RCP2.6) up to 82 cm in worst case scenario(RCP8.5) by year 2100, (ElKut, 2015).
Beside threats of flooding with SLR, storm surge action intensify the SLR impact, and hence
severity of attacks on coastal areas. Earlier studies (Debes, 2002; El-Sherbiny, 2006 and 2011)
presented evaluation of storm surge events, related to meteorological parameters, and defined
height reaching 40 cm along the Nile Delta. The studies also specified storm surge dominant
behavior for each season. Findings, evidently, proved winter maximum risk of inundation
occurrence in Alexandria coast, accompanied with high potential surge magnitude and
frequency of occurrence.

4.2 Deterioration of Coastal Structure Condition

A recent study by El Hakea (2015) presented results of inspection of coastal structure conditions
along the Alexandria coastal area from El Anfoushi to El Mondara. The study investigated 43
different structures of various types; mainly breakwaters, groins, revetments and seawalls. Rating
of the structural condition index (SI) show that more than 80% of these structures suffer from
certain deterioration degree, yet functionality is not significantly affected till present. Results
also draw the attention to serious deterioration in 27% of the investigated structures. Worst
coastal structure condition, with lowest SI index, was found in the eastern harbor.

However, such investigation results raise question on reliability and confidence level in
efficiently protecting Alexandria. During the last decade, climate change surprised many regions
around the world with unprecedented extreme events. Therefore such declining condition of
coastal defense put forward reservation of how firmly would these structure stand in face of
possible unprecedented intensive rainfall with severe storm hit, and other ever-surprising climate
change impact.

4.3 Flooding and Inundation Risk

Topographic pattern of narrow elevated coastal strip as well as the established shoreline
protection structures, with condition of maintained stability and effectively functional structures,
imply avoidable inundation by natural and man-made defences. Yet susceptiblility to storm
surge, salt water intrusion, elevated groundwater, drainage problems and concerns of
infrastructure safety are expected, specially with potential climate change impact.
Beside the low-lying areas in Alexandria, AASTMT and Egis Bceom (2011) draw the attention
to the vulnerability of informally constructed districts “slum dog” that host almost third of
Alexandria population, and suffer serious deterioration in infrastructure and building conditions.
Concern is also raised for areas built over reclaimed wetlands.
4.4 Socio-Economic and Institutional Capacity
Importance of Alexandria environmental, socio-economic as well as cultural status triggered
vulnerability studies since the 1990’s. In 1999, El Raey et al. presented evaluation of potential
socio-economic impact of climate change and sea level rise (SLR) scenarios for main land uses
in Alexandria city. Results of 0.5m SLR scenario predicted losses of 45% of receational areas,
13% of residential area, 12% of industrial area, 30 % of the services, and 21% of tourism
attractions, if no precautionary action is taken. The study also graded the most affected sectors in
employment to be industry, followed by tourism then agriculture.
In 2011, AASTMT and Egis Bceom’s study revealed limitation of the institutional capacity in
Alexandria for risk management, and lack of effective communities preparedness for potential
climate change impacts and extreme events. Currently, organizational system for emergency
response is mainly centralized with limited coordination among concerned agencies in one hand,
and vertically down to the community level, on the other, (AASTMT and Egis Bceom, 2011).

Recent study by ElKut (2015) presented vulnerability analysis for Alexandria coastal zone,
categorized on basis of topography, subsidence rate, SLR, storm surge as well as socioeconomic
consideration. Using SLR scenario of year 2050 (IPCC-WG1, 2013), the developed thematic risk
map set five classes of vulnerability (very low, low, medium, high and very high). While the
coastal strip shows very low vulnerability to inundation, the southern part of Alexandria is
classified medium to very highly vulnerable, Figure (10). The study results predict 304 km2 of
affected areas; urban lands (22%), cultivated lands (37%), wetlands (37%) and undeveloped
lands (4%).
 Figure (10). Risk map showing the inundated areas under SLR scenario at Alexandria, Egypt,
(after Elkut, 2015)

5. Discussion
Alexandria has been witnessing continual developments; urbanization, investments and
infrastructure establishment, while striving to keep its touristic entity as a key coastal resort.
Excessive development processes created inevitable change in coastal hydrodynamic, physio-
chemical and sediment transport behavior, causing disturbance of shoreline stability and led to
shrink or even disappearance in some areas. En effect, certain hard engineering structural projects,
e.g. coastal highway widening, while solved the growing traffic issue, have negatively interfered to shore
role as natural protection to dampen swell effects. Accordingly, certain developments in coastal
region have diminished resilient capacity and heightened vulnerability to sea level rise by
damaging natural defense. On the other hand, other protection structures; such as breakwaters,
seawalls…etc., boost the resilient capacity and are expected to alleviate sea level rise effect.
While climate change-related sea level rise scenarios are predicted in form of gradual increasing
rates, yet environmental changes and climate events are not perfectly regulated. Extreme events,
floods and storm surge are more frequent nowadays worldwide.
Topographic patterns and morphological features, as well as the protection structures in place in
Alexandria coastal region, provide an assuring impression of low vulnerability to sea level rise.
However, the elevated coastal strip of the city is directly backed with depressions and low-lying
areas, that is currently below Mean Sea Level (MSL). These parts are susceptible to potential
flooding and storm surge risks, inundation, saltwater intrusion further into aquifer, elevated
water table, and hence drainage difficulties. Moreover, with the ever-growing population density,
urbanization is expanding further in low-lying areas and on partially reclaimed wetlands in the
southern part of Alexandria. Other alarming concerns are the deteriorating condition of informal
or (slum) housing construction within the city that are not expected to stand firmly during
moderate/extreme climatic events.
Therefore, it can be concluded that vulnerability prevail over resilient capacity of Alexandria
city. Resilience based on elevated topography of narrow strip, managed shoreline stability, as
well as coastal protection structures, proved insufficient versus predicted challenges.
Precautionary plan for climate change impact and sea level rise is required to address multi
factors; including comprehensive maintenance for deteriorated conditions/aged structures, improved
institutional preparedness and fast response strategies, as well as raising social awareness.

6. Conclusions and Recommendation

The research presented a review of progressive changes in Alexandria coastal zone, both natural
and man-made, and consequent effects on vulnerability level to climate change impact and sea
level rise. An integrated evaluation of the city defense capacity; in terms of; reliability degree on
protections, potential resilience and, hence, hazard likelihood, revealed alarming vulnerability
state. While coastal morphology, topography and protection structures are creating prime defense for
shore front region, yet not reliable for potential extreme events and storm surge. The research study also
specify areas with highest priority for immediate defense planning. Realization of vulnerable
hotspots enables decision makers adjusting city expansion plans, either by special precautionary
construction methodology or by redirection.
To avoid loss of investments and established infrastructure, and potential damage to
archaeological sites, it is recommended to set an integrated adaptation plan that cope with natural
characteristics as well as potential climate change impact on Alexandria coastal zone, with
special attention to extended developments and high risk areas. Also, institutional capacity-
strengthening strategy, with inter-agency coordination, as well as community awareness is essential to
be included for better preparedness in dealing with extreme events.

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