Stock Analysis Excel Sheet MBP
Stock Analysis Excel Sheet MBP
Parameters Details
Company AVANTI FEEDS LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 520
Face Value (Rs) 1
No. of Shares (Crore) 14
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 7088
3 Does the company generate consistent cash flow from operations? YES
4 Are returns on equity consistently above 15% with reasonable leverage? YES
9 Share Price
10 How much other is there?(One-time charges, etc) NONE
11 Has the number of shares outstanding increased markedly over the past several years? YES
Assuming no big acquisitions, if shares outstanding are consistently increasing around
by more than 2% per year, think long and hard before investing the firm
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 7088
Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
3 28 30 70 116 158 216 446 274 346
8.22 2.73 3.19 6.69 12.02 11.47 15.53 22.72 20.35 11.57
CURRENT P/E RATIO 19.82 3-YR 18.21 5-YR 16.33 10-YR 11.45 Current
NONE
FEW
CONSISTENT
CYCLICAL
3.49
ERRATIC
DEBT-FREE
LOW-DEBT
MODERATELY-LOW DEBT
MODERATE DEBT
MODERATELY-HIGH DEBT
HIGH-DEBT
YES
NO
Balance Sheet
AVANTI FEEDS LTD GOOD
Rs Cr Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 BAD
Equity Share Capital 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 14 14
Reserves 62 86 116 170 256 414 626 1,022 1,192 1,390
Borrowings 54 50 61 56 58 11 19 7 9 2
Other Liabilities 26 39 62 163 154 189 414 488 400 475
Total 150 183 248 398 478 623 1,069 1,526 1,615 1,880
click here for the explanation
Net Block 27 43 51 78 90 104 160 312 293 271
Capital Work in Progress 11 2 2 5 - 42 94 2 9 26
Investments 34 45 35 40 111 33 360 584 630 680
Other Assets 78 93 161 276 277 444 454 628 683 903
Total 150 183 248 398 478 623 1,069 1,526 1,615 1,880
EXPENSES
Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
COST OF MATERIALS CONSUMED 172 275 516 882 1,383 1,543 2,101 2,485 2,740 3,299
POWER AND FUEL 7 11 19 26 29 26 34 49 54 59
OTHER MANUFACTURING EXPENSES 9 9 14 20 35 35 46 84 114 131
SELLING AND ADMIN 14 27 43 66 117 133 51 44 54 65
CHANGES IN INVENTORY 9 -4 19 13 15 14 29 76 3 35
EMPLOYEE BENEFIT EXPENSES 7 16 22 35 48 58 73 111 101 114
FINANCE COSTS 5 4 4 4 3 3 5 5 5 4
DEPRECIATION 3 4 5 6 9 10 14 24 36 38
OTHER EXPENSES -5 -4 -19 -36 -69 -76 8 12 19 25
GOOD INCOME STATEMENT
Trailing BAD Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
3977 % % % % % % %
SALES 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
COST OF GOODS SOLD 96.81% 75.93% 90.80% 86.15% 85.53% 83.58% 84.48%
GROSS MARGINS 3.19% 24.07% 9.20% 13.85% 14.47% 16.42% 15.52%
SELLING,GENERAL&ADMINISTRATIVE EXP 8.11% 10.08% 7.32% 5.97% 5.55% 5.97% 5.07%
EBITDA MARGINS 6.28% 12.56% 8.47% 10.53% 11.20% 13.01% 13.59%
DEPRECIATION,DEPLETION&AMORTIZATION 1.42% 1.04% 0.80% 0.51% 0.52% 0.53% 0.52%
488 OPERATING MARGINS 2.90% 10.77% 7.26% 9.68% 10.15% 11.37% 12.18%
80 OTHER INCOME/EXPENSE 1.95% 0.75% 0.41% 0.34% 0.53% 1.11% 0.89%
2 INTEREST EXPENSE 2.26% 1.06% 0.63% 0.40% 0.16% 0.17% 0.20%
487 PBT MARGINS 2.60% 10.45% 7.05% 9.62% 10.53% 12.31% 12.87%
TOTAL TAXES 0.86% 3.12% 2.23% 3.24% 3.70% 4.09% 4.22%
NET MARGINS 1.67% 7.33% 4.80% 6.44% 6.78% 8.14% 8.24%
358 289.64 EFFECTIVE TAX RATE 33.27% 29.89% 31.63% 33.68% 35.18% 33.25% 32.79%
26 21.26
19.8 24.47
520
Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Trailing
% % % %
100% 100% 100% AVG MIN MAX
79.40% 83.46% 85.66% 85.18% 75.93% 96.81%
20.60% 16.54% 14.34% 14.82% 3.19% 24.07%
4.90% 4.98% 4.96% 6.29% 4.90% 10.08%
21.61% 13.44% 12.80% 12.35% 6.28% 21.61%
0.70% 1.03% 0.92% 0.80% 0.51% 1.42%
19.45% 10.71% 10.17% 10.26% 10.47% 2.90% 19.45%
1.46% 1.70% 1.72% 2.02% 1.09% 0.34% 1.95%
0.14% 0.14% 0.11% 0.53% 0.11% 2.26%
20.76% 12.27% 11.78% 11.02% 2.60% 20.76%
7.02% 3.48% 2.40% 3.44% 0.86% 7.02%
13.16% 7.85% 8.42% 8.99% 7.28% 1.67% 13.16%
33.79% 28.37% 20.33% 31.22% 20.33% 35.18%
Common Form P&L
Rs Cr Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 84% 72% 82% 81% 81% 80% 80% 73% 79%
Change in Inventory 5% -1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0%
Power and Fuel 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2%
Other Mfr. Exp 5% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%
Employee Cost 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Selling and Admin Cost 7% 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% 2% 1% 2%
Other Expenses -2% -1% -3% -3% -4% -4% 0% 0% 1%
Operating Profit -5% 14% 2% 8% 9% 10% 10% 16% 12%
Other Income 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2%
Depreciation 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Interest 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Profit Before Tax 3% 10% 7% 10% 11% 12% 13% 21% 12%
Tax 1% 3% 2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 7% 3%
Net Profit 2% 7% 5% 6% 7% 8% 8% 13% 8%
Dividend Amount 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2%
GOOD
Mar-20 BAD AVG MIN MAX
100% 100% 100% 100%
80% 79% 72% 84% A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
1% 1% -1% 5% figure. Creating common-size financial statements
1% 2% 1% 3% makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
3% 3% 2% 5% compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that
3% 3% 3% 4%
a raw financial statement may not uncover.
2% 5% 1% 7%
1% -2% -4% 1%
9% 9% -5% 16%
2% 1% 0% 2%
1% 1% 1% 1%
0% 1% 0% 2%
12% 11% 3% 21%
2% 3% 1% 7%
8% 7% 2% 13%
2% 1% 0% 2%
ancial statement is displays line
age of one selected or common
mmon-size financial statements
nalyze a company over time and
ts peers. Using common-size
helps investors spot trends that
statement may not uncover.
AVANTI FEEDS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
Net Fixed Asset Turnover 11.0 13.3 17.0 20.5 20.0 19.8 14.4 11.5 14.6
NET MARGINS 2% 7% 5% 6% 7% 8% 8% 13% 8% 8%
DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIO 24% 19% 20% 19% 22% 20% 19% 12% 20% 20%
Depreciation as % of NFA 11% 9% 10% 7% 10% 10% 9% 8% 12% 14%
SELF-SUSTAINABLE GROWTH RATE (SSGR) 60.16% 72.32% 99.74% 114.29% 138.64% 113.71% 98.13%
DUPONT-ANALYSIS
YEAR Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
NET MARGIN% 1.7% 7.3% 4.8% 6.4% 6.8% 8.1% 8.2% 13.2% 7.8% 8.4%
ASSET TURNOVER 1.4 2.1 2.5 2.7 3.6 3.1 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2
RETURN ON ASSETS% 2.26% 15.37% 12.11% 17.68% 24.27% 25.30% 20.18% 29.25% 16.94% 18.43%
FINANCIAL LEVERAGE 2.16 1.95 1.98 2.22 1.80 1.47 1.68 1.48 1.34 1.34
RETURN ON EQUITY% 4.9% 30.0% 24.0% 39.2% 43.7% 37.3% 33.9% 43.3% 22.7% 24.7%
YEAR Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
CFFO (CASH FLOW STATEMENT) 50.38 -20.55 55.56 89.34 122 277.75 280.93 183.76 125.09
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 10.86 12.66 35.42 16.05 66.27 122.62 83.33 23.27 32.93
OWNER'S EARNINGS(FCFE) 39.52 -33.2 20.1 73.3 55.7 155.1 197.6 160.5 92.2
FREE CASH FLOW/SALES(%) 10.32% -5.30% 1.84% 4.29% 2.88% 5.93% 5.82% 4.60% 2.24%
MINIMUM 5% IS GOOD
PROFITABILITY MATRIX
FREE CASH FLOW TO SALES 4.30% HIGH LESS RISKY COMPANY
ROE<15% AND FREE CASH FLOW>5% ROE>15% AND FREE CASH FLOW>5%
RETURN ON EQUITY % 32.4%
GOOD FREE CASH FLOW BUT BAD ROE GREAT COMPANY
FREE CASH FLOW 5%
ROE<15% AND FREE CASH FLOW<5% ROE>15% AND FREE CASH FLOW<5%
LOW
15%
RETURN ON EQUITY
COMPANY STRATEGY
UNFAVORABLE
UNFAVORABLE INDUSTRY STRUCTURE FAVORABLE
LOW
LOW INDUSTRY GROWTH HIGH
BAD
1. EARNINGS YIELD
EXPENSIVE
☹
EARNINGS YIELD 5.05%
10 YEAR GOVT BOND YIELD 6.68% click here to know govt bond yield
2. CASH RETURN
☹
CASH RETURN 2.42%
☹
3 YR AVG P/E RATIO 18.2
5 YR AVG P/E RATIO 16.3
10 YR AVG P/E RATIO 11.4
☹
☹
3 YR AVG P/S RATIO 1.9
5 YR AVG P/S RATIO 1.6
10 YR AVG P/S RATIO 1.0
☺
3 YR AVG P/B RATIO 5.8
5 YR AVG P/B RATIO 5.4
10 YR AVG P/B RATIO 3.7
If you don't like using past growth rates, then you can use fundamental growth rates which are more dynamic and forwardin
reinvestment ( i.e., how much money you retain in the business ) and return of equity (i.e., the return you generat
1. SIZE 7088
2. FINANCIAL HEALTH STRONG FINANCIAL HEALTH
3. EARNINGS GROWTH CONSISTENT
4. ECONOMIC MOAT NO MOAT
5. MANAGEMENT HIGH QUALITY MANAGEMENT
6. COMPLEXITY LOW
Final Calculations
☹
Terminal Year 619
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows 1,976
Terminal Value 2,414
Total PV of Cash Flows 4,390
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 7,088
Share Price 520
Value Per Share 322
growth rates which are more dynamic and forwarding looking. Growth in net profit is the function of
ss ) and return of equity (i.e., the return you generate on incremental retained earnings).
Estimated 10th Y
Estimated 10th Year Share P
Estimated 10th Y
Disounted Ea
IDEND INCOME ANALYSIS (MANUAL GROWTH)
EPS DPR Dividends Pr. Value
26.2 39.23% 10.30
30.2 39.23% 11.84 10.57
34.7 39.23% 13.62 10.86
39.9 39.23% 15.66 11.15
45.9 39.23% 18.01 11.45
52.8 39.23% 20.71 11.75
60.7 39.23% 23.82 12.07
69.8 39.23% 27.39 12.39
80.3 39.23% 31.50 12.72
92.3 39.23% 36.23 13.06
106.2 39.23% 41.66 13.41
ome From This Stock In Next The 10 Years 240 119.44
☹
9 FY26 352 127 9
10 FY27 369 119 10
10 3,693 1,189 10
Intrinsic Value 3,538 Intrinsic Va
Current Mkt. Cap. 7,088 Current Mkt. C
Premium/(Discount) 100% Premium/(Discou
Value Per Share 260 Value Per Sh
You have to adjust the initial free cash flows in case if they are negative.
lue Calculation CHEAP EXPENSIVE
vestor by Mohnish Pabrai
WOW, IT'S CHEAP! ☺
AVANTI FEEDS LTD
Dhandho - Best Case
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr)
IT'S EXPENSIVE
Assumed FCF Growth
☹
Excess Cash (Latest) 879 Year 1-3 20%
FY18 180 161 Year 4-6 15%
FY19 216 172 Year 7-10 10%
FY20 259 185 Discount Rate 12%
FY21 298 190
FY22 343 195
FY23 394 200
FY24 434 196
FY25 477 193
☹
FY26 525 189
FY27 577 186
8,662 2,789
Intrinsic Value 5,534
Current Mkt. Cap. 7,088
Premium/(Discount) 28%
Value Per Share 406
☺
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 9,278
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 7,088
ATTENTION PLEASE!
Make Sure That Capital Gains Are Atleast
15%
196% 370
Intrinsic Value Range UNDER-VALUED
AVANTI FEEDS LTD OVER-VALUED
Market Cap Value Per Share
Lower Higher Lower Higher
Dhandho 3,538 5,534 259.70 406.18
DCF 4,390 322.24
Total Return 9,278 680.99
PE < G Price 5,290 388.26
Current Market Cap. 7,088 share price 520.20 W.Avg Intrinsic Value
411
PTIONS
ught in Phase-1 27
ught in Phase-2 30
ught in Phase-3 32
ares Bought 90
Total Return
10,000
144%
336
818
AVANTI FEEDS LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20
Sales 834 1,040 755 835 858 1,093 1,064 923 1,035 955
% Growth YOY 3% 5% 41% 10% 21% -13%
Expenses 717 909 682 726 764 957 935 859 910 826
Operating Profit 117 132 72 110 93 137 129 63 125 129
Other Income 15 14 12 14 19 18 22 20 12 28
Depreciation 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9
Interest 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0
Profit before tax 124 137 75 114 103 145 141 73 126 147
PBT Margin 15% 13% 10% 14% 12% 13% 13% 8% 12% 15%
% Growth YOY -18% 6% 88% -36% 23% 1%
Tax 38 47 20 29 26 44 13 14 27 31
Net profit 83 86 46 74 68 93 119 48 87 104
% Growth YOY -18% 9% 156% -35% 28% 12%
OPM 14% 13% 10% 13% 11% 13% 12% 7% 12% 14%
NEVER PLACE YOUR BUY ORDER WITHOUT GOING THROUGH THIS CHECKLIST
STUDY ITS PRODUCTS/SERVICES CAREFULLY,CHECK WHETHER THEY EXIST IN REAL WORLD AND WHAT
THEY CLAIM ABOUT THEIR PRODUCT/SERVICE IS TRUE OR MAKES SENSE.
IS IT JUST LOW P/E OR LOW VALUATION THAT IS TEMPTING YOU TO INVEST? BUY CHEAP STOCKS, BUT
NOT CHEAP QUALITY STOCKS.
IF YOU FIND ANY RED FLAGS IN YOUR ANALYSIS, NEVER IGNORE, DIG DEEPER.
STAY AWAY FROM COMPANIES WHERE INSIDERS ARE SELLING LARGE STAKES.
READ 10-YEARS OF REVENUE RECOGNITION POLICIES AND WATCH OUT FOR ANY POLICY CHANGES.
BE WARY WITH COMPANIES NOT CONDUCTING CONFERENCE CALLS AND NO CHAIRMANS LETTER IN THE
ANNUAL REPORT.
META
Number of shares 13.62
Face Value 1
Current Price 520.2
Market Capitalization 7087.5
Quarters
Report Date Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19
Sales 834.28 1040.24 754.54 835.32 857.68 1093.49
Expenses 716.83 908.53 682.42 725.67 764.46 956.65
Other Income 14.94 13.95 12.27 14.12 19.47 18.06
Depreciation 7.74 8.74 9.02 9.03 9.05 9.23
Interest 0.21 0.37 0.61 0.54 1.10 0.40
Profit before tax 124.44 136.55 74.76 114.2 102.54 145.27
Tax 38.44 46.56 19.66 28.87 26.34 43.81
Net profit 82.93 85.67 46.4 73.57 67.99 92.96
Operating Profit 117.45 131.71 72.12 109.65 93.22 136.84
BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
Equity Share Capital 8 8 9.08 9.08 9.08 9.08
Reserves 61.52 85.61 116.02 170.49 256.21 413.71
Borrowings 54.46 49.57 61.08 56.12 58.40 10.71
Other Liabilities 26.44 39.34 61.92 162.66 153.89 189.1
Total 150.42 182.52 248.1 398.35 477.58 622.6
Net Block 26.78 43.09 50.85 77.51 89.57 103.99
Capital Work in Progress 11.12 1.67 1.59 4.81 41.62
Investments 34.49 44.77 34.87 40.31 111.09 33.15
Other Assets 78.03 92.99 160.79 275.72 276.92 443.84
Total 150.42 182.52 248.1 398.35 477.58 622.6
Receivables 22.81 15.51 39.73 45.02 33.56 34.97
Inventory 39.05 42.15 97.16 199.15 222.02 285.55
Cash & Bank 4.56 22.05 8.59 12.86 6.16 72.57
No. of Equity Shares 8000000 8000000 9083042 9083042 9083042 45415210
New Bonus Shares
Face value 10 10 10 10 10 2
CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
Cash from Operating Activity -7.72 50.38 -20.55 55.56 89.34 122
Cash from Investing Activity -17.6 -17.44 5.43 -39.1 -83.52 18.13
Cash from Financing Activity 19.01 -14.09 0.81 -12.74 -11.97 -74.26
Net Cash Flow -6.31 18.85 -14.31 3.72 -6.15 65.86
DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 12.00 12.00 13.60 13.60 13.60 13.62
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET
2 2 1 1
Net Block BS
CWIP BS INV BS
Net Block CFA Invt BS OTH Assets BS A/R BS INV CFA
CWIP CFA Invt CFA OTH Assets CFA A/R CFA INV Turnover
F.Asset Turnover Cash&Bank CFA A/R DAYS Days in INV
Step-2: Kick out stocks that are out of your circle of competence. Don't worry if you have to kick ou
Step-3: With the remaining stocks, do the complete Stock Analysis by using this excel sheet.
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Tip-2: In the search query, you can customize it as per your requirements, for example I used Market Capitalization > 500 (in
Market Capitalization > 500 (in crores), you can feed in, higher or lower figure.
How to use it?
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You can add custom formating, add conditional formating, add your own formulas… do ANYTHING.
Please don't edit the "Data Sheet" only.
TESTING:
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