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09 May 2023 04 13 19
Electric vehicles: Mapping the Chinese Appendix
Reshuffling cards in challenge for the
the global automotive European automotive
game? industry

Allianz Research

The Chinese challenge

to the European
automotive industry
Allianz Research

Executive
Summary
• The shift to battery electric vehicles is a game changer for the European
automotive industry. Alternative energy vehicle sales reached a record-
breaking 4.4mn units in 2022, representing 47% of all new vehicle
registrations in Europe. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) led the way, with
Aurélien Duthoit
Senior Sector Advisor
sales booming by +28%, representing 12% of all new vehicle registrations.
[email protected] With the 2035 phase-out of internal combustion engines (ICE) looming,
the automotive sector is on the cusp of a complete shake up, facing a
transformation of its supplier base, changing customer needs, competition
from new entrants and the reality of a less car-centric society.

• But the number one risk is China. Having recognized the potential of
electric vehicles 15 years ago, China has since invested vast resources
in building a competitive electric vehicle ecosystem. As a result, it now
leads the global EV landscape, selling over double the number of BEVs
in 2022 compared to Europe and the US combined, while also holding a
competitive edge in nearly all aspects of the BEV value chain. Because
they account for more than 80% of EV sales in their country, Chinese
brands have seen their market shares climb from less than 40% in 2020 to
close to 50% in 2022, while the country’s automotive trade balance went
from a -USD31bn deficit to a +USD7bn surplus over the same period. At
the same time, already in 2022, three of Europe’s best selling BEVs were
Chinese imports. As BEVs eventually grow to account for all new car sales
in Europe, Europe-made cars are likely to be substituted by those made
in China – irrespective of whether they are manufactured by a Chinese,
American or European company.

• European carmakers could collectively lose more than EUR7bn in annual

net profit by 2030. If Chinese manufacturers increase their domestic
market shares to 75% by 2030, total sales in China by European carmakers
would fall by -39%, with local production falling from an estimated 4.4mn
units to 2.7mn in 2030. We also find that if European imports of China-
made cars reach 1.5mn vehicles in 2030, equivalent to 13.5% of the EU’s
2022 production, the value added impact on the European economy would
stand at EUR24.2bn in 2030 for the automotive sector, the equivalent of
0.15% of the region’s 2022 GDP. But the automotive-dependent economies
of Germany, Slovakia and Czech Republic could face an even bigger hit
(0.3% to 0.4% of GDP).

• What can policymakers do? Given the strategic importance of the

automotive sector for the European economy, policymakers could seek
reciprocal trade terms with China and the US, as well as promote BEV
adoption through improved charging infrastructure. Moreover, allowing
Chinese investment in local car assembly could have more value added
generated in the region, while increasing self-sufficiency in raw materials
critical for battery manufacturing and investing in next-generation battery
technologies will further help Europe’s automotive sector prepare for
tomorrow’s challenges.
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09 May 2023

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 Allianz Research

Photo by Lenny Kuhne Unsplash

Electric vehicles:
Reshuffling cards in the
global automotive game?
Europe is decarbonizing its automotive industry at a record pace
2022 was a record-breaking year for alternative energy Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in particular are
vehicles in Europe, with sales soaring to 4.4mn units leading the way, with sales booming by +28% and now
(+11% vs 2021) despite an overall -5% decline in new representing 12% of all new vehicle registrations, far
vehicle registrations. Between 2019 and 2022, the above the 6% reached in the US.
market share of alternative energy vehicles climbed
from 11% to 47% (Figure 1). Facing a potential ban
on selling internal combustion engine cars (ICEs) by
2035 and targets to cut emissions, carmakers have
introduced a record number of new models in Europe.
At the same time, consumers are increasingly seeking
out less polluting options, and the government subsidies
for low-emission vehicles are boosting demand further.

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Figure 1: EU new vehicle registration by fuel type (%)

Petrol Diesel HEV BEV PHEV NGV Other

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
2019 2022
Sources: ACEA, Allianz Research

Box 1: How the shift to electric vehicles is reshaping competition in Europe

Despite its success, Europe‘s approach towards alternative energy vehicles represents a risky gamble for its domestic car
industry. It entails a complete shakeout of the sector by transforming its supplier base, changing the needs of its customers,
leaving the door open to new entrants, redefining the competitive game and preparing for a less car-centric society (Box 1).
The stakes are high for Europe‘s automotive industry: four out of five cars sold in Europe are assembled locally (i.e. the
coverage ratio is higher than 80%). Europe is also the world’s export powerhouse in the sector, with car trade generating
between EUR70bn and EUR110bn in trade surplus for the European economy every year over the past decade. Along with
Japan and South Korea, the region dominates global car exports, serving the trade deficits of major economies such as
China and the US.

At a macro level, the automotive sector is Europe‘s largest single industrial sector, accounting for 10% of the value added
of the manufacturing industry, with even higher percentages in countries such as Germany (15%), Hungary, Czech Republic
and Slovakia (close to or above 20%). The industry also has a strong impact on upstream industries such as metals, plastics
and electronics.

The impact of electrification on the automotive industry in Europe is significant and far-reaching, affecting every aspect
of the industry. Using Michael Porter’s framework identifying the five forces shaping the intensity of competition within an
industry, we outline below how the shift to EVs is reshuffling the competitive game for the European automotive ecosystem.

Relationships with suppliers

Historically accounting for 25% to 30% of a car’s total cost, powertrain components (engine, transmission, exhaust and fuel
systems etc.) are by definition the most impacted by the shift to electric vehicles. Electric powertrains are typically much
simpler, requiring considerably less parts (no fuel tank and injection systems, no exhaust system, generally a single-speed
transmission etc.), but far more expensive (30-40% of total vehicle cost), with batteries alone representing 20-30% of the
total vehicle cost. Technology substitution has so far been the most obvious and critical challenge for the European ecosys-
tem, with providers of legacy technologies (turbo-compressors, fuel injection systems, exhaust systems) facing an existenti-
al threat. The shift away from diesel engines is particularly notable as Europe was the only major market where passenger
cars used to run on diesel, creating a natural barrier to foreign competition more used to petrol engines. While carmakers
are learning to work with new suppliers, increasing supplier concentration is becoming a cause for concern: Six out of the 10
largest battery manufacturers are based in China and control about two-thirds of the global market. The strategic import-
ance of the battery has prompted some carmakers to invest heavily in their own capacities, most often through partners-
hips with specialized players.

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Relationships
Allianz Research with customers

Electrification is also reshaping the industry’s relationship with its customers – in particular, fleet customers (car rental and
corporate leasing companies), which account for over 50% of all car registrations in Europe. Because they have their own
ESG agendas, rental and leasing companies have committed to reduce their carbon footprints and abide by Europe’s gro-
wing regulation. In this respect, carmakers failing to adapt to the changing needs of fleet customers face the risk of losing
market share in the near future.

Threat of new entrants

Electrification is a major opportunity for aspiring new entrants, whether they are starting from scratch (hundreds of electric
vehicle companies have been launched in the past years) or moving from ICEs to electric powertrains to increase their mar-
ket shares. The threat of new entrants has already materialized in Europe: While Tesla was virtually unknown in the market
10 years ago, it now has a 2% share of the overall European market and a 20% share of the battery electric vehicle segment.
After making a strong impression at the 2022 Paris Motor Show, Chinese carmakers are also ramping up their commercial
presence in Europe and bringing new models to the market.

Threat of substitutes

Irrespective of their powertrain technologies, private vehicles are expected to play a lesser role in the European transport
mix in coming years. Governments are likely to enact additional policies and regulations that will make owning and using
private cars less appealing (restrictions on their use in urban areas, greater incentives for public transport and alternative
mobility options), thereby reducing overall demand for new vehicles.

Competitive rivalry

Cars are complex consumer goods, with competition based both on prices (value for money) and differentiation (perceived
attributes) – analysts often distinguish between the low cost, mass market, premium, performance or luxury segments. Here
again, electrification is a game changer as regards non-price competition by challenging the traditional features on which
carmakers and brands have built their competitive advantages:

• Performance: Electric cars are redefining performance because of the characteristics of electric engines. Of all charac-
teristics, range is arguably the most critical because of the comparatively low performance of EVs vs ICEs and the subs-
tantial gap between entry-level and high-end EVs as regards maximum range. Potential range needs to be considered
together with charging speeds, charging infrastructure compatibility and energy efficiency. Carmakers lagging behind
competition in terms of performance face the risk of losing market shares. Reflecting the potential advantage from a
comparatively wider and faster charging network, carmakers have already invested billions in proprietary charging
infrastructure in Europe.

• Design: Electric vehicles look similar for a reason – in particular, positioning the battery on the floor allows cars to
have a low center of gravity and optimal weight distribution at the cost of a generally higher stance compared to ICEs,
coming on top of higher ground clearance to protect the battery from potential shocks. To compensate for the adverse
impact on vehicle aerodynamics and performance, EVs often have a slick look to reduce air resistance. Overall, car
design may make less of a difference than it used to until the industry comes up with battery designs that allow greater
flexibility.

• Reputation and brand image: The extent to which carmakers and their brand portfolio can continue to leverage attri-
butes built over time with ICEs while selling EVs remains to be seen. Common values used by carmakers include perfor-
mance, technology, reliability, safety and design – as discussed above, those product attributes are being challenged
by the adoption of electric technologies. Anecdotal evidence from the Chinese market shows consumers are willing
to pay prices more typical of foreign, premium vehicles from well-established brands for high-performance vehicles
from companies with little to no brand history. The fact that the vast majority of carmakers are coming up with new car
names for the successors to their historical ICE models, and sometimes with new car brand names, also suggest that
electrification really is a game changer for reputation and brand image.

Because of new entrants, competitive will increase in the coming years, forcing carmakers to invest even more to better dif-
ferentiate their cars. Meanwhile, price competition will also intensify as electric vehicles will no longer be a niche segment
commanding a substantial price premium to the standard offering.

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China is doubling down on electric vehicles…
Despite its rapid growth, Europe’s adoption of alternative Much like in Europe, soaring EV penetration reflects a
energy vehicles comes only second in the world – and a mix of growing consumer interest in electric cars, national
distant second at that. In 2022, more than 5.4mn battery and regional purchase-subsidy schemes and new models
electric vehicles – two-thirds of the world total – were coming to the market, covering the city and compact-car
registered in China, +83% from 2021. Alternative energy segments.
vehicles account for 20% of total registrations (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Battery electric vehicle registrations in top markets (2022)

6 25%
Units (million, LHS) % of registrations (RHS)
5 20%
4
15%
3
10%
2
1 5%

0 0%
China EU US

Sources: ACEA, CAAM, Allianz Research.

Box 2: 40 years playing catch-up with international competition

China’s oldest carmakers trace their roots back to the 1950s and 1960s but only gained traction in the 1980s when, follo-
wing the example set by South Korea, they began to learn from foreign firms through the assembly of knock-down kits sup-
plied by European and US automotive companies. The 1994 Industrial Automotive Policy went further by allowing greater
foreign investment in the sector with the possibility for international manufacturers to have a maximum of two 50:50 joint
ventures with a domestic manufacturer. The policy was well received by foreign investors, with Japanese, European and US
companies investing massively and helping propel domestic production from 1.4mn vehicles in 1994 to 13.8mn in 2009, the
year the country overtook Japan and the US as the world’s largest producer of motor vehicles.

However, for all their success in boosting local production, and despite technology transfers and substantial import tariffs
(25%) on foreign vehicles, in the early 2010s, Chinese carmakers still suffered from a significant technology and quality gap,
translating into a USD25bn trade deficit and foreign competitors controlling 70% of domestic car registrations.

Electric vehicles were identified as the future competitive battleground in the late 2000s

Chinese authorities recognized the potential of EVs to address other critical issues such as air pollution and energy security.
But support to EVs was also clearly identified as a major opportunity for the domestic industry to leapfrog from being a tier-
two country in legacy engine technologies to a leader in alternative energy technologies.

A major milestone was a pilot program launched in 2009 called “Ten Cities, Thousand Vehicles“ encouraging the adopti-
on of EVs and the development of the domestic EV industry by providing financial incentives for EV buyers, encouraging
government fleet purchases, supporting the development of charging infrastructure and promoting research and develop-
ment in EV technology. Initially rolled out in five cities, the pilot was found promising, progressively extended to more cities
and ultimately implemented nationwide. By placing a specific emphasis on the development of what it called “new energy
vehicles” (hybrid electric, battery electric, fuel cell vehicles), the 12th five-year plan (2011-2015) and the 2015 Made in China
2025 plan have also been instrumental in shaping the current Chinese EV ecosystem. Much like for the other nine critical
industries identified, the objective was to move away from low value-added manufacturing and to increase the share of
Chinese inputs in exported goods through of mix of financing and fiscal tools favouring domestic companies. The plan initi-
ally set non-binding objectives of 1mn new energy vehicles to be produced by 2020 and 3mn by 2025, bringing the share of
new energy vehicles to 20% of all vehicles sales. All three targets were met in advance in 2017, 2021 and 2022, respectively.

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... and recapturing the domestic market…

China‘s rapid advancements in electric vehicles are • A wider range of available BEVs (city and compact
transforming its domestic market, where foreign auto- cars in particular) compared with international compe-
makers have traditionally held a dominant position. In titors, which have so far mostly focused on large and
a historic first, Chinese automakers reached parity with expensive sedans and sport utility vehicles. China’s
foreign brands in 2022 and surpassed them in Q4, cap- most popular BEV is a four-seat city car manufactured
turing 51% of the market share (Figure 3). Their share in by a US-Chinese joint-venture that is available for the
electric vehicles alone stood at 80% and showed no sign equivalent of EUR4,300.
of abatement in Q1 2023.
• Positive product reviews and customer reception for
The main factors explaining the growing popularity of China-branded EVs resulting in good brand recog-
Chinese brands in the Chinese market include: nition, in contrast to the more negative perceptions
associated with Chinese internal combustion engine
• A strong cost advantage for BEV manufacturing ba- vehicles in the past.
sed on the bigger volumes of the Chinese car market
and a competitive supplier base (critical metal refi-
ning, battery cell and module manufacturing etc.).
Past purchase-subsidy schemes were also restricted to
China-made vehicles.

Figure 3: Battery electric vehicle registrations in top markets (2022)

60%
Market share of Chinese carmakers in passenger car registrations
50% Market share of NEV in total sales

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Sources: CAAM, Allianz Research

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… putting EUR24bn of European car exports at risk…

As the popularity of electric vehicles grows, Chinese data for imported models from major European
companies are expected to expand their market share automakers tells a different story: Imported volumes have
accordingly by 2030 and squeeze foreign car imports. been declining in recent years, dipping below 500,000 in
Because they represent more than half of China‘s car 2022 (Figure 4). Over the past decade, the market share of
imports, European automakers face the greatest risk. European imports has dropped from an estimated 2.9% to
European trade figures can be somewhat deceptive – 1.8% of total registrations.
exports did hit a record high of EUR24bn in 2022, but
this surge was mainly due to a catch-up effect and
favorable pricing. Analyzing Chinese car registration

Figure 4: Chinese registrations of imported European vehicles

800,000 4%
Imports (unit, LHS) % of registrations (RHS)

600,000 3%

400,000 2%

200,000 1%

- 0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Sources: Bloomberg, Allianz Research

… and more than 4mn vehicles from Sino-European joint-ventures

The surging popularity of Chinese pure-play automakers one is manufactured by a Sino-European joint venture.
is also jeopardizing the operations that European In the face of flat, then declining market shares (Figure
carmakers have established in China – mostly joint 5), European carmakers have taken opposite stances,
ventures, but also a few majority-controlled subsidiaries. considering the Chinese market too difficult to crack and
Accounting for 85% of European automakers‘ sales withdrawing entirely, or conversely doubling down on local
volumes in the Chinese market, local subsidiaries have manufacturing to improve local competitiveness.
generally lagged in adopting electric vehicle technology
compared to their pure-play counterparts: Of the 20
most popular electric vehicles sold in China in 2022, only

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Figure 5: Chinese registrations of locally manufactured European vehicles

Locally manufactured vehicles (million units, LHS)

6 % of registrations (RHS) 30%

4 20%

2 10%

0 0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Sources: Bloomberg, Allianz Research estimates

Trade data shows growing Chinese competitiveness in international

markets
The growing competitiveness of China’s automotive While Chinese manufacturers used to focus on the
industry is best reflected in its bilateral automotive trade needs of other emerging economies in Asia, the Middle
with the rest of the world. Looking at product-level data East and Latin America, it is European markets that
provided by Chinese customs, we find confirmation that contributed the most to booming exports, jumping
Chinese car imports fell from 1.2mn units in 2017 to from an estimated 8% share of exports in 2017 to a 28%
0.9mn units in 2022 – a -30% drop in a market down by share in 2022. Looking at European statistics to check
only -6%. Even more striking, the trade balance in value for consistency, we find confirmation of a significant
terms went from a USD37bn trade deficit to USD7bn trade boom in imports of China-made cars, with, for the first
surplus over the same period, showing that rising Chinese time ever, Europe’s vehicle trade balance moving into
competitiveness is not only allowing the country to become negative territory in December 2022.
more self-reliant, but also to expand in international
markets (Figure 6).

Figure 6: China’s automotive international trade (billion USD)

100
Imports Exports Trade balance

50

-50

-100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Sources: China Customs, Allianz Research

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European and American carmakers are pushing made-in-China

cars in Europe…
To assess the penetration of China-made cars at a we find that three out the 10 best-selling BEVs were fully
micro-level, we study the best-selling vehicles of 2022 or partially imported from China, and just five models
for Europe’s largest automotive market, Germany (Box from four European and American carmakers dominate
3). Looking at their respective countries of assembly, registrations of China-made BEVs in Europe.

… while most Chinese brands are only ramping up their operations.

Only one China-branded BEV made it to Germany’s top available in the German market, sales are poised to grow
50 best-selling models in 2022: Most Chinese carmakers at a fast pace in 2023 and in coming years. Tapping into
are still at an exploratory stage in Europe’s largest a new market in the automotive industry requires time as
automotive market. Looking more closely at data for carmakers must navigate through typical ramp-up phases
Q1 2023, however, we find that progress is clear, with including regulatory compliance, localization, establishing
six Chinese companies now selling BEVs in Germany sales networks with importers and dealerships and
compared to only two one year ago, and the market building brand awareness.
share of those companies now accounting for 3.7% of
all BEV sales in Germany, vs 1.2% one year ago. With
Chinese players accounting for 15 out the 90 BEVs

Box 3: Mapping the current BEV offering in Germany, Europe’s largest car market
#1 EVs available from city to sports cars through SUVs and compacts. As of March 2023, 90 different models were avai-
lable for order in Germany, priced between EUR22,000 and EUR218,000. Half of them are compact cars or smaller.

#2 Only a fraction of available models are EVs. EVs are sold under 37 different brands, meaning the average brand offers
two to three different electric models. Brands affiliated with dominant automotive groups in Europe tend to have a broader
offering.

#3 New technology means new entrants. Out of the 37 brands, nine offer battery electric vehicles exclusively in Europe
and had little to no commercial presence in the market 10 years ago.

#4 New entrants mean new origins. Five full-electric brands are Chinese, three are American and one is European with a
parent Chinese group. 19 out of the 90 cars are exclusively assembled in China, and another 11 have assembly operations
both in China and Europe or North America.

#5 Many Asian-imported EVs among best-sellers. Out of the 10 best-selling EVs in Germany in 2022, one is imported from
South Korea, one from China and two both manufactured in Europe and North America as well as China.

#6 EVs come with a high price tag. The median price tag for one of the 90 EVs available stands at EUR51,000 – compared
with an average EUR30,000 to EUR40,000 for a new vehicle in Europe’s largest markets. Affordability will be crucial to meet
EV penetration targets by 2035.

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Allianz Research

Chinese competition will pave a bumpy road for Europe’s

automotive industry
We identify two main channels by which China’s rise as a • The mandatory shift to a product mix where
competitive automotive manufacturing hub could impact battery electric vehicles will account for virtually
Europe’s automotive industry: all new car sales by 2035 in Europe will favour
a partial substitution of Europe-made cars by
• Growing competitiveness will help Chinese China-made cars – irrespective of whether those
manufacturers gain a greater share of their domestic cars are manufactured by a Chinese, American or
markets, jeopardizing the sales and profits of foreign European company. A look at the product pipelines
companies operating in China, either through lower of European and American carmakers point to a
exports or lower sales from their Chinese subsidiaries. minimum of 11 new mass-market, China-made BEVs
As evidenced by the 80% market share controlled by to be launched in Europe by 2025, and an additional
Chinese brands in Chinese electric vehicle registrations, three Chinese carmakers have announced they will
most international competitors have been too slow begin commercial operations in Europe as early as
to embrace the shift to EVs in China. Looking at their 2023, bringing the total to nine. As discussed in Box
announced EV pipelines for the Chinese market, we 4, the openness of the European market makes it
observe that only a handful of carmakers are planning far most interesting for Chinese exports than the
increasing commitment to the Chinese market. As scale American market.
and technology help EVs reach price parity with ICEs
over time, we do not see a business case for a foreign
carmaker selling substantial volumes of ICEs in the
country. Rather, we would expect more international
carmakers to withdraw from China in coming years – a
trend already at play.

Box 4 – How the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) makes Europe a target for Chinese
exports
A key reason for the growing penetration of China-made and China-branded vehicles in Europe is its comparatively greater
openness for imported electric vehicles. Despite being the world’s second-largest market for motor vehicles and running a
huge trade deficit for cars, the US is set to be a much tougher market to crack for Chinese vehicles in light of the US Inflation
Reduction Act (IRA), which will greatly encourage automotive manufacturing in North America through two main provisi-
ons:

• Production tax credits for the manufacturing of a wide range of clean energy components and critical minerals (“New
Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits”) including electric battery cells and modules used in electric vehicles.
• Tax credits worth up to USD7,500 for the purchase of an EV assembled in North America and meeting certain domestic
content requirements for minerals and components and, starting in 2024, exclusive to so-called “entities of concern”
(including China).

While the former provision will only play out progressively as domestic and foreign companies invest in local manufacturing
capacities, the latter is creating a strong and immediate advantage for locally assembled vehicles and an explicit barrier to
Chinese suppliers and carmakers. IRA provisions come on top of a significant import duty gap: Chinese vehicles face a 10%
import duty rate in Europe but a 27.5% rate inherited from the Trump Administration in the US.

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Mapping the Chinese Photo by Obi @Pixel7Propix on Unsplash

challenge for the European

automotive industry
What if Chinese brands capture 75% of their domestic market and
China-made cars 10% of the European market by 2030?

To help quantify the stakes at play, we simulate a possible competitors that are finished building their commercial
2030 scenario where Chinese manufacturers manage to presence in Europe’s largest markets. The precedents
increase their domestic market shares to 75% – consistent from Japanese carmakers in the US in 1970s (Box 5) or
with the trend at play since sales of new energy vehicles South Korean carmakers in Europe in the 2000s (Box
began to soar and our expectations of foreign competitors 6) show exports alone can be enough for competitive
leaving the market. carmakers to secure a significant market share in
international markets
Meanwhile, imports from China climb to 10% of all car
sales in Europe as the continent goes electric, with BEVs We emphasize that this scenario is not a forecast
reaching an 80% market share for all passenger car but rather a plausible case to illustrate potential
sales. Exports are first pushed by international carmakers developments in the automotive industry. Various
with a manufacturing foothold in China, then by Chinese factors, including changes in government policies and
geopolitical influences, could significantly impact the
actual outcome.

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European car production in China could decline by 1.7mn vehicles

(-37%) and threaten EUR7bn in annual net profits…
In this scenario, total sales in China from European Assuming their operations in China are as profitable as
carmakers would fall by -39%, with local production falling those in other markets, 22% of their combined EUR67bn
from an estimated 4.4mn units in 2022 units to 2.7mn units in net profit for 2022 brings the net profit at risk to
in 2030, and exports from 480,000 to 290,000 units. The EUR14.7bn. Because 50-50 joint ventures still account
impact in euro terms would be more difficult to assess as for the bulk of their local sales, at least EUR7.3bn of that
European carmakers do not report operating or net profit EUR14.7bn can be attributed to European carmakers.
on a geographical basis. However, their combined Chinese
sales amounted to about 22% of their global deliveries.

… and Chinese imports could climb to 1.5mn vehicles and threaten

13% of European production
In the same scenario, Chinese exports would reach would lower the capacity utilization rates of European
1.5mn vehicles in 2030, equivalent to 13.5% of the EU’s factories, weigh on their profitability and encourage
2022 production or the combined output of the region’s further capacity eliminations. Over the past 10 years,
three largest automotive assembly factories. Since the a dozen assembly sites were shut down in Europe,
European market is by and large autonomous, rising reflecting greater consolidation among carmakers and
Chinese imports would take a bigger toll on local the exit of some American and Japanese manufacturers.
production compared with competing but modest imports
from Japan and South Korea. Greater reliance on imports

EUR24bn in direct automotive value added at risk, 0.15% of the

region’s GDP…
Adding export losses to domestic production losses, in just a few countries and regions. Breaking down
and factoring in EUR14,200 of value added per vehicle European value added by country, we are reminded
manufactured in EU in 2019 as a proxy, the value that Germany is the region’s powerhouse, alone
added impact on the European economy would stand accounting for nearly 60% of the region’s value added
at EUR24.2bn in 2030 for the automotive sector, the (Figure 7).
equivalent of 0.15% of the region’s 2022 GDP. This EU
average masks important value added concentration

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Figure 7: Value added from the European automotive industry by country (2019 data, %)

Germany Italy France Spain Czechia Sweden Poland Slovakia Others

2%
3% 11%

4%
5%
5%
58%
6%
6%

Sources: Eurostat, Allianz Research

In this respect, the same 0.15% impact on European GDP the economy – the impact would be more than twice the
has a very different meaning for countries where the European average for countries such as Slovakia, Czech
automotive industry plays a comparatively larger role in Republic and Germany (Figure 8).

Figure 8: Lost automotive value added expressed as a percentage of 2022 GDP

0.5%

0.4%

0.3%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%
Slovakia Czechia Germany Sweden Poland Spain Italy France

Sources: Eurostat, Allianz Research

… and a good dozen more among suppliers of the automotive

industry
Our estimate on the direct impact on the automotive • EUR53bn was for other manufacturing activities,
industry does not factor in the strong knock-on impact including EUR19bn for metals, EUR8bn for
the industry has on other industrial and services activities. machinery and equipment, EUR7bn for rubber
Using the OECD Trade in Value Added (TiVA) database, and plastics, EUR5bn for electronic and electrical
we find that final demand generated by the European equipment and EUR4bn for chemicals.
automotive industry generated EUR155bn of value added • EUR102bn for services, including EUR16bn in
for other European sectors in 2018, of which: support services (R&D, consulting etc.), EUR12bn
in transport and storage services, EUR4bn in IT
services etc. (Figure 9)

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Allianz Research

Figure 9: Value added from the European automotive industry for selected other European sectors (2018 data, billion euros)

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Wholesale and Basic metals Transportation Professional, Rubber and IT and other Chemical and Computers,
retail trade; and fabricated and storage scientific and plastics information chemical electronic and
repair of motor metal products technical products services products electrical
vehicles activities equipment

Sources: OECD Trade in Value Database, Allianz Research

Eliminating the same 14% of lost automotive production

on the value added generated by the automotive industry
in other sectors would amount to an extra EUR21bn in lost
value added for the European economy. Note, however,
that this is an upper bound estimate, given that some
services such as retail are provided irrespective of the
actual place of car assembly. Conversely, because supply
chains tend to be local, lost car assembly activities would
be felt more on upstream industries (metals, plastics,
chemicals, electronics etc.).

Box 5: The rise of South Korean brands in the European market

The South Korean motor vehicle industry grew in the 1960s, with the initial impulse coming from the 1962 Automotive In-
dustry Promotion Law. Through a mix of trade policy and government-supervised licensing agreements and joint ventures,
domestic carmakers emerged by assembling semi-knocked-down parts provided by Japanese and American carmakers.
Government support was later instrumental to increase the share of domestic content in locally assembled vehicles – which
materialized in the 1975 by the launch of the first Korea-designed (with international partners) and manufactured passen-
ger car – and to encourage exports to North America and Europe in the 1980s.

South Korean brands became mainstream in Europe in the second half of 1990s with the promise of affordable vehicles
whose quality became close to the local entry-level offering. After going through consolidation in the aftermath of the 1997
Asian crisis, they managed to secure an estimated 4% share of the European passenger car market in 2005 just through ex-
ports. In the middle of the decade, they took major steps by opening European research and design centers, designing ve-
hicles specifically for European customers and opening manufacturing facilities in Czech Republic and Slovakia. Combined
with efforts to move upmarket and substantial investment in marketing, their strategy was met with commercial success,
with their markets shares increasing gradually and reaching an all-time high of about 9% in 2021. Exports are estimated to
account for over 40% of South Korean cars sold in Europe and were at record highs in 2022, partly driven by popular electric
vehicle models primarily assembled in South Korea.

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 Box 6: Japan’s foray into the American market 09 May 2023

Japan began exporting passenger vehicles to the US in the late 1950s, but it was not before the end of the 1960s that Japa-
nese manufacturers grabbed a sizable share of the local market. A major turn of event was the 1970 Clean Air Act, which
set forth a mandatory 90% cut in polluting emissions from new cars by 1975. Together with soaring gasoline prices in the
wake of the 1973 oil crisis and the subsequent economic recession, this shift in legislation provided a huge boost to Japane-
se carmakers whose lighter, more compact and fuel-efficient vehicles proved popular among US customers. Their share in
US registrations jumped from 3% in the 1970s to 7% in 1975 and 20% in 1980 despite imports tariffs and no local manufactu-
ring presence. Meanwhile, US employment in the motor vehicles and equipment sector fell from a high of 1.1mn in 1979 to a
low of 650,000 in 1982.

The implementation of so-called voluntary export restraints at the request of the US Administration in 1981 contributed to
cap Japanese car exports and encourage the creation of “transplant” factories owned by Japanese carmakers on Ameri-
can territory starting in 1982. The move did not prevent Japanese cars from becoming even more popular, with their market
share oscillating between 19% and 25% through the decade. Japanese manufacturers invested heavily in their American
manufacturing facilities. By the end of the decade, vehicles assembled locally accounted for nearly 40% of Japanese car
sales in the country and employment returned to about 80% of its past peak.

Figure 10: Sales of Japan-branded cars in the US

Exports to US (units)
6,000,000 Overseas production in US (units) 40%
5,000,000 % US market (rhs)
30%
4,000,000
3,000,000 20%
2,000,000
10%
1,000,000
0 0%
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020

Sources: BEA, Jama, Allianz Research

Photo by Vlad Tchompalov on Unsplash

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Allianz Research

In an industry characterized by long product- • As raw materials constitute about half of battery costs,
development and commercial cycles, it is clear that increasing self-sufficiency in this area could reduce
China’s lead in the global EV race will not be bridged Europe‘s reliance on imported electric powertrain
by 2030. However, the extent to which Europe can keep components and strengthen the domestic value chain.
pace with growing Chinese competition is up to European Europe should also consider prioritizing the development
policymakers and the industry itself: of mining and refining capacities when possible, and
establishing trade deals with partner countries when
• As explained previously, Europe’s BEV market is not, to secure its economic and strategic interests. In
comparatively far more open than those of China and this respect, the European Critical Raw Material Act
the US, where national or regional assembly is a pre- (CRMCA) is a step in the right direction whose specifics
requisite to qualify for purchase subsidies and import will need to be communicated and enforced as soon as
duties on foreign vehicles are higher. Seeking reciprocity possible.
in trade terms, not just with China but also the US,
should be a priority to have a more level playing field • Late in current battery technology manufacturing,
for the European industry. Europe should also prepare for what lies ahead as
both China and the US are heavily investing in next-
• Because China’s cost advantage lies in part in the size generation battery technologies. Lithium-ion chemistries,
of its domestic market, Europe should also ensure the particularly NMC (nickel, manganese, cobalt oxide)
best possible environment for the adoption of BEVs dominate the current battery market due to their
– not just through subsidies, but also with extensive advantageous blend of energy density, power and safety
and high-performance charging infrastructure that features. However, the reliance on constrained metals
would allow electric vehicles to use smaller, lighter and such as cobalt necessitates the exploration of alternative
less expensive batteries. Well-performing charging battery technologies to mitigate supply risks and develop
infrastructure would lower the price tag for the average different types of batteries for different needs. Emerging
BEV and convince users in less urbanized areas to alternatives, such as solid-state batteries, present
make the switch. In our previous report, we estimated promising prospects for enhanced energy density, safety
the necessary investment in charging infrastructure at and sustainability.
EUR13.4bn per year to meet Europe’s Fit For 55 target¹.

• If Europe struggles to compete with China the short

run, it could seek to join it – much like the US did with
Japanese carmakers in the 1980s, if only too late.
Allowing Chinese investment in European car assembly
should not be a taboo despite the symbolic dimension
of such a decision and the likely opposition of some
European carmakers. All else unchanged, it would
be far more beneficial for Europe to have China-
branded vehicles on its roads if they were assembled
locally rather than imported. Evidence from European
electric-battery-assembly projects, where China is the
largest investor, and the interest expressed by Chinese
carmakers in European automotive factories due to
be closed show deals would have high chances to
materialize.

¹See Transport in a zero carbon EU: pathways and opportunities

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 09 May 2023

Appendix

Scenario assumptions
The assumptions used for the 2030 scenario are as follows:

• A compound annual growth rate of +2.5% for the Chinese passenger car market by 2030, bringing annual
registrations to 28.6mn units, and a linear progression of the market shares of Chinese carmakers to 75% of total
passenger car registrations.

• A compound annual growth rate of +6.3% for the European passenger car market by 2030, bringing annual
registrations to 15.1mn units. Higher growth for the European market does not reflect greater potential, but the
historical low in registrations reached in 2022 and a progressive return to the peak registration levels of the 2010s.
BEV penetration would stand at 80%, which is close to the weighted average of the pledges made by leading
carmakers present in Europe for 2030 (81%).

• Value added per vehicle of EUR14,200. Value added data were retrieved using Eurostat’s national accounts
aggregates by industry database, using value added for 2019 rather than 2020 or 2021, which are often incomplete
and reflecting the highly unusual pandemic years, and the NACE code C29, which encompasses both carmakers
and automotive suppliers. Vehicle production data are those provided by OICA and collected from national trade
bodies. Vehicle definition may differ between countries.

Data from the OECD’s Trade in Value Added database also cover the NACE C29 activity code. The latest data are for
2018.

Industry data sources

Data on the automotive market used in the report come from the following sources:

• OICA (International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers): time series on global vehicle production.
• ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers‘ Association): time series on vehicle production, registration, import,
export etc.
• KBA (Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt): time series on car registrations for the German market
• just-auto.com: time series on European automotive factory production (data retrieved from a Bloomberg terminal)
• China Automotive Information Net: time series on China automotive sales (data retrieved from Bloomberg terminal)
• China Automotive Technology and Research Center (CATARC): time series on China automotive retail sales (data
retrieved from Bloomberg terminal)
• ev-database.org: database on the BEV available on the European market

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Allianz Research
ALLIANZ RESEARCH

Our
team

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 09 May 2023
Chief Economist Head of Head of Macroeconomic & Head of Insurance, Wealth
Allianz SE Economic Research Capital Markets Research & Trend Research
Allianz Trade Allianz SE Allianz SE

Ludovic Subran Ana Boata Andreas Jobst Arne Holzhausen

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Macroeconomic Research

Maxime Darmet Cucchiarini Roberta Fortes Jasmin Gröschl Françoise Huang

Senior Economist for US & France Senior Economist for Ibero-Latam Senior Economist for Europe Senior Economist for Asia Pacific
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Maddalena Martini Luca Moneta Manfred Stamer

Senior Economist for Italy & Greece Senior Economist for Africa & Middle East Senior Economist for Middle East &
[email protected] [email protected] Emerging Europe
[email protected]

Corporate Research

Ano Kuhanathan Aurélien Duthoit Maria Latorre Maxime Lemerle

Head of Corporate Research Senior Sector Advisor, B2C Sector Advisor, B2B Lead Advisor, Insolvency Research
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Capital Markets Research

Jordi Basco Carrera Pablo Espinosa Uriel

Lead Investment Strategist Investment Strategist, Emerging
[email protected] Markets & Alternative Assets
[email protected]

Insurance, Wealth and Trends Research

Michaela Grimm Patricia Pelayo-Romero Kathrin Stoffel Markus Zimmer

Senior Economist, Economist, Insurance & ESG Economist, Insurance & Wealth Senior Economist, ESG
Demography & Social Protection [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
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Allianz Research

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Director of Publication
Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist
Allianz SE
Phone +49 89 3800 7859

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About Allianz Research

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