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THE HINDU

6 Tuesday, January 2, 2024

Editorial Delhi

Responding to the new COVID­19 sub­variants


I
t is four years since the novel coronavirus SARS­CoV­2 Virus Evolution had downgraded the respiratory diseases and tuberculosis kill 50 to 60
(2019­nCoV, later renamed as Severe Acute Omicron as the ‘previous’ variants of concern. times more people every day than COVID­19 now.
Sign of the future Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus­2 or
SARS­CoV2) was first reported on
However, national and global agencies are
tracking the virus and JN.1 has been designated as
We need to shift attention to preventable deaths
due to many other reasons.
The PSLV C58 mission is a symbol of December 31, 2019 from China. In the months VoI.
which followed, it caused severe COVID­19 waves JN.1 has been designated a VoI, which means it Act responsibly
the demands being made of ISRO in nearly every country, across the world. Dr. Chandrakant has some genetic changes and indicative Yet, four years should help us to learn. The
Lahariya

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wo missions the Indian Space Research Alongside, at end December or early new year, characteristics in circulating viruses which need government’s COVID­19 response and actions
Organisation (ISRO) has launched in the there would be news of a new variant or is a medical doctor to be monitored by the health agencies and should be more nuanced and informed by all
five months since its success with Chan­ sub­variant, or of a surge in cases in some with over 15 years of government. Such a designation is a call to step evidence and real time data. Citizens need to act
drayaan­3 have both been scientific in nature: the countries. At the end of 2021, it was an Omicron work experience with up genomic sequencing scientific work and use responsibly and not share unverified social media
Aditya L­1 space probe to study the sun and the X­ variant (BA.1.1.529), and by the end 2022, the the World Health data to track the virus. JN.1 is not a new virus but messages or forwards. Science communication
ray Polarimeter Satellite (XPoSat) to study polar­ COVID­19 case surge in China made news. Now, a Organization (WHO) in a sub­variant of BA.2.86, which itself is a from the government needs to be more
ised X­rays emitted in astrophysical phenomena. new subvariant of the Omicron variant of the India Country subvariant of the Omicron variant of SARS­CoV­2. interactive, and public communication messaging
ISRO launched the XPoSat, in a two­part mission, SARS­CoV­2, the JN.1, is making news. office, the regional Till now, there is no evidence that JN.1 causes should be more routine and easy to understand.
office for Africa, more severe disease or causes immune escape There is a possibility scenario where reported
onboard a Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV)
Brazzaville; and the
on its C58 flight on January 1. The relative timing Virus behaviour and is, thus, not a reason for worry. In short, COVID­19 cases may increase slightly in the days
WHO headquarters
of these launches may be a coincidence but it is The JN.1 sub­variant of Omicron has been in Geneva
designating a variant as VoI does not ahead, or in the months ahead — as it happened
heartening because the ratio of scientific to reported from multiple countries and designated automatically mean there is a reason to worry. in April 2023 when daily cases had spiked.
technological missions ISRO has launched is as a variant of interest (VoI) by the World Health Till now, there is no evidence that JN.1 is However, for most circulating respiratory viruses
skewed in favour of the latter, at the expense of Organization. This has raised some concerns and responsible for severe disease or immune escape. including SARS­CoV­2, mere transmission or an
research in the sense of discovery. Those science­ caused some worries. But is it really cause for In fact, the waste­water surveillance in some increase in cases is not an immediate concern.
oriented missions have all been exceptional in concern? The short answer is a no. The reason is Indian cities had indicated that the new Right now, SARS­CoV­2 infections do not appear
their own right. For example, XPoSat is only the that the reporting of a new variant or sub­variant sub­variant has circulated to a majority of the to change clinical outcomes in any age groups.
second space­based experiment to study X­ray is on expected lines. In fact, in May 2023, while population without major change in reported or How should we respond to current or any
polarisation, and at higher x­ray energies than declaring the end of the COVID­19 pandemic, clinical cases in the way of a ‘silent wave’. future uptick due to SARS­CoV­2? The short
the other, NASA’s Imaging X­ray Polarimetry Ex­ WHO had highlighted the need for continuous answer is in the same way that we respond to any
plorer. Its POLIX payload, realised by the Raman tracking of the virus and its variants. The The vaccine response seasonal rise in cases of flu, respiratory illnesses
Research Institute, will track X­rays in the 8­30 ki­ rationale was simple. The pandemic is over, but Does it mean we need to get additional shots of or dengue virus. By the government increasing
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lo­electron­volt (keV) energy range and observe SARS­CoV­2 was and is circulating in all countries COVID­19 vaccines? Current scientific evidence standard public health preventive measures such
emissions from around 50 sources in five years. and all settings and will continue to do so for supports that vaccines and natural infection as Severe Acute Respiratory Infections (SARI) and
The XSPECT payload, by ISRO’s U.R. Rao Satellite long, and possibly forever. That is how most continue to provide protection from any Influenza­like Illness (ILI) surveillance, waste
Centre, will study X­rays of energy 0.8­15 keV and viruses behave. Therefore, there is always the sub­variant, though there is some possibility of a water surveillance and improving provision of
changes in continuous X­ray emissions. Together, possibility of some seasonal changes in the decline in protection, as time has lapsed since the required services at health facilities. The clinical
they are expected to shed light on intense X­ray number of cases, at unpredictable intervals. A last vaccination. Immunologically, the natural management should focus on a syndromic
sources such as pulsars and black holes. linked feature is that the genetic material of the infections which have happened in addition to approach to respiratory illnesses. At the
Then again, the science­technology skew is a circulating viruses — especially of the respiratory vaccine shots, have provided hybrid immunity to individual and community levels, there is no
reminder that ISRO among the world’s spacefar­ virus — keeps changing over a period. These people in India and many countries. Therefore, need to disturb the routine or change your travel
ing organisations has unique needs and priori­ changes in genetic structure (genome) result in there is no immediate reason to worry. There is or vacation plans. People with cough and cold or
ties. This is exemplified by the second part of the the designation of new variants and sub­variants. no scientific evidence to support having a fourth flu­like illness must follow good respiratory
C58 mission. After launching XPoSat in a 650­km Since the reporting of the novel virus in 2019, shot of COVID­19 vaccines, for any age group. etiquette such as wearing masks in public places,
circular orbit around the earth, the fourth stage more than 1,000 subvariants and recombinant We also need to interpret the rise in COVID­19 covering their nose and mouth when coughing or
of the rocket lowered itself into a 350­km­high or­ sub­lineages have been reported. Against this cases more carefully. The spike in COVID­19 cases sneezing and frequent handwashing, irrespective
bit and unfurled solar panels, becoming a rudi­ backdrop, the emergence of JN.1 is not surprising. in India could be more artificial than real. It is of whether it is a type of SARS­CoV­2, seasonal flu
However, every change in genome does not
It is time we likely that ramped up COVID­19 testing is picking or any other respiratory illness. It is proven that
mentary satellite and orbital testbed for the 10
payloads it carried. These are a radio payload by matter, and the international agencies and handle more cases. Then, some deaths are being the risk to children is the lowest among any age
the K.J. Somaiya Institute of Technology and a subject experts are on task to assess the risk. SARS­CoV­2 or attributed to COVID­19. However, there is no group and thus, school closure should never be
device to measure ultraviolet radiation from However, if mutations or genetic changes result in COVID­19 just evidence that those deaths are causally linked to considered an option in response to a COVID­19
L.B.S. Institute of Technology for Women; a an alternation in the characteristics of the virus like any other SARS­CoV­2. These appear to be in the individuals case surge.
‘green’ cubesat propulsion unit, a ‘green’ mono­ (such as higher transmission, more severe disease respiratory who were already sick and had COVID­19, as an It is time we handle SARS­CoV­2 or COVID­19
propellant thruster, a tantalum­based radiation or immune escape from vaccine induced or illness; it is incidental finding. The average five or six deaths just like any other respiratory illness. It is more of
shield, a heater­less hollow cathode, and a nano­ natural immunity), it merits greater attention. in a day in India also need to be considered in an individual health concern than a public health
The variants are then termed as VoI or variants of
more of an perspective. concern. COVID­19 is not a novel virus any more
satellite platform, all from private entities; and an
interplanetary dust counter, a fuel­cell power sys­ concern (VoC). At present, there is no VoC in individual To put this in context, every day in India, an and is here to stay. But it is not a reason to worry.
tem, and a high­energy cell from ISRO centres. circulation in any part of the world. On March 16, health estimated 27,000 people die due to a range of
This is only the third time ISRO has operated the 2023, WHO’s Technical Advisory Group on concern now reasons that include old age. In contrast, The views expressed are personal
PSLV fourth stage in this way. As such, the C58
mission represents a union of the aspirations of
professional scientists, aspiring students of
science, and India’s private spaceflight sector.
This again is a vignette of the demands of ISRO it­
Reigniting the flame of India­Korea defence cooperation
self as it navigates an era in which a permanent
lunar station seems inevitable, drawing as much

I
on technological capabilities as — based on scien­ n the intricate tapestry of global geopolitics, Indian government side on weapons acquisition areas to effectively counter emerging threats in
tific missions — humankind’s knowledge of the defence collaboration emerges as a and technology transfer from Korea, while the digital domain, ensuring the security of
universe. foundational imperative, crucial for the undeniably pivotal, has tended to overshadow critical infrastructure and information.
preservation of international peace and stability. broader strategic considerations. Similarly, the Strengthening coordinated efforts to counter
The recent diplomatic overture during the visit of unwavering focus of the Korean defence terrorism aligns seamlessly with the shared
Widening war General Manoj Pande, Chief of the Army Staff of
India, in November 2023, to the Republic of Lakhvinder Singh
establishment on profit­driven weapons sales to
India, devoid of strategic considerations, may
concerns of India and South Korea. There is
potential for collaboration in maritime security,
U.S. should not see Houthi attacks as a Korea, signifies a critical juncture in the trajectory prove shortsighted in the face of fast­changing including joint patrolling and information
is the Director of
concern independent of the Gaza war of India­Korea defence relations. While this visit Peace and Security geopolitical dynamics. Powerful arms lobbies in sharing, given the significant maritime interests
fortified diplomatic ties, it also unveiled the India and Korea pose a potential roadblock, both countries have in the Indian Ocean.

A
U.S. strike on Yemen’s Iran­backed Studies at the Asia
Houthi militants in the Red Sea while challenges, necessitating meticulous Institute in Seoul emphasising the necessity to prioritise long­term
they were attacking a container ship is consideration. This prompts an exploration of the strategic goals over short­term gains. Peacekeeping and exercises
the latest sign that the Gaza war is widening challenges faced by India and Korea in enhancing The emerging coalition of North Korea, China, India and South Korea can leverage their United
beyond Israel­Palestine. Three Houthi boats were their defence cooperation, along with an and Russia poses a new serious challenge to Nations peacekeeping expertise for collaborative
sunk and 10 militants killed in a rare close combat examination of opportunities for mutual growth. collaborative efforts between the two nations. efforts. Sharing insights and resources in
with the rebels who control much of Yemen. The Despite recent high­level engagements, a Divergent stances may arise, necessitating a peacekeeping operations can enhance regional
Houthis say that to express solidarity with the challenge that persists is the absence of a shared nuanced appraisal of each party’s strategic and global stability, underscoring their joint
Palestinians, they would continue to attack com­ vision for a new comprehensive defence imperatives. commitment to peace and security. Additionally,
mercial vessels passing through the Bab el­Man­ framework, one that can provide a robust The high­level interactions of Gen. Pande with joint exercises and the exchange of best practices
deb Strait, through which the Red Sea opens into structure under which both nations can operate the top Korean military leadership and his in Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief
the Gulf of Aden. Since late November, at least 20 and align their policies to construct a novel and engagements with the leadership of top Korean (HADR) demonstrate the shared responsibility of
commercial tankers have come under Houthi at­ sustainable emerging regional order. The defence institutions, such as the Defense both nations in addressing vulnerabilities to
tacks, including a chemical vessel off the Indian imperative for India and Korea is to transcend the Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) and natural disasters.
coast, forcing some of the world’s largest ship­ confines of bilateral cooperation, and embrace a the Agency of Defence Development (ADD), are Lastly, mutual growth is found in enhancing
ping companies, including Maersk, Hapag­Lloyd paradigm shift that cultivates a more profound anticipated to further unite the defence joint army exercises, fostering interoperability,
and MSC, to suspend trading on the Red Sea understanding of their roles in the swiftly communities of both countries. and strengthening the capabilities of both armies
routes, and use the circuitous route around Afri­ evolving global scenario. for effective collaboration in diverse scenarios.
ca. Traffic through the Red Sea, a crucial link bet­ Explore technological collaborations Gen. Pande’s visit to Seoul has spurred the
ween the Mediterranean and the Arabian Seas Korean view of India’s regional role Leveraging their technological capabilities, India extension of cooperation beyond naval focus to
through the Suez Canal, has dropped by some A hurdle lies in the resistance on the Korean and South Korea are aiming to collaborate in other branches of India’s armed forces.
35% in recent weeks, increasing shipping and in­ government side to reassess India’s role in the developing advanced defence systems and While the recent visit of Gen. Pande has
surance costs. The crisis has prompted the U.S. to region. It is incumbent upon Korea to equipment. Given their shared understanding of reignited the flame of India­Korea defence
announce a new naval task force to ensure secur­ comprehend that India is not merely the largest the pivotal role technology will play in future cooperation, the path forward necessitates
ity in one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. consumer of defence products. Rather, it stands conflicts, the scope for cooperation in this sector meticulous navigation through the challenges and
But the U.S.’s attempt to deal with the Houthi as a regional power capable of substantial Both nations is limitless. Such synergy can lead to a mutually the wholehearted embrace of opportunities. A
threats as a stand­alone security crisis might run contributions to peace and stability in the need to beneficial defence technology and industry strategic, balanced approach, coupled with
into its own limitations. No Red Sea basin country Indo­Pacific. A departure from Cold War transcend the partnership, propelling both countries to the adaptability to the evolving geopolitical
has joined the U.S.­led task force, which includes mentalities, where the Korean government confines of forefront of innovation and self­reliance. landscape is key to unlocking a robust and
even Egypt, whose economy has taken a hit due perceived India as standing in the opposite Soviet bilateral In an era where defence against space warfare, enduring defence collaboration, in turn creating a
to the drop in the Suez traffic. This shows the bloc, is imperative for Korea to forge a deeper, information warfare, and cybersecurity is partnership that fosters peace, stability, and
cooperation and
growing anger in the Arab world towards the Bi­ more meaningful partnership with India. This paramount, both nations can further explore prosperity in the Indo­Pacific region. United,
paradigm shift in Korean government strategic understand their opportunities for cooperation. Given Korea’s both nations stand ready to navigate the
den’s administration’s unconditional support for
Israel’s offensive in Gaza, which has killed at least thinking is indispensable for any meaningful roles in a status as an advanced high­tech digital complexities and uncertainties of the future,
22,000 people in 11 weeks. The Houthi control of engagement between the two nations. rapidly evolving superpower, vast opportunities exist in the forging a path toward a stronger and more
Yemen’s Red Sea Coast, including the port of Ho­ Further, the prevailing overemphasis by the global scenario development of robust security measures in these resilient partnership.
deidah, which is some 250 km north of the Bab
el­Mandeb, just 29 km wide at its narrowest
point, gives them a natural advantage in carrying LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
out sea denial attacks in and around the Strait.
Over the past few weeks, the U.S. has shot down Truce needed global economy now as a in various welfare mismatch, bank system and, in fact, saved people in the government’s real
several Houthi missiles and drones over the Red The Israel­Hamas war will result of the attacks by programmes, it is important failures, unstable Internet, the rural areas from abject motives. If exclusion is the
Sea. But that has not stopped the Houthis from impact the global economy. Iranian­backed Yemen’s to exercise caution when and the threat of cyber poverty and deprivation. agenda, rural distress will
launching new attacks. Even if the U.S. carries Fifty years after the last Houthi militants on the Red making Aadhaar seeding attacks necessitate the Instead of plugging the only rise.
out airstrikes in Yemen, it is not clear whether ae­ Arab Israel war (1973), Sea route. The Israel­Hamas mandatory for schemes exercise of due diligence. loopholes, the government J. Anantha Padmanabhan,
rial attacks could deter the Houthis, who sur­ Hamas has struck, resulting conflict desperately calls for such as the Mahatma While aiming to eliminate is appearing to be deftly Tiruchi, Tamil Nadu
vived intense Saudi bombing for seven years. in a widening trail of world powers to work out a Gandhi National Rural fraudulent beneficiaries, eliminating crores of
Beefing up security in the Red Sea and the Ara­ disruption and destruction. truce at the earliest. An oil Employment Guarantee genuine workers must not beneficiaries by making
bian Sea has now become inevitable, but the U.S. This latest Arab­Israeli shock is the last thing the Scheme (MGNREGS), which be made to suffer. compulsory a system whose
should first work towards achieving a ceasefire in conflict poses a significant world needs. has been instrumental in Michael Jom, success rate has been
Gaza, addressing the core issue behind the esca­ threat to regional stability Ramesh G. Jethwani, preventing poverty for Thiruvananthapuram patchy to say the least. With
To read more letters
lation. That would help Washington build a re­ and global peace, which is Bengaluru many. The potential for most of the beneficiaries online, scan the
gional consensus against the Houthis. But if the bound to impact the global errors and the lack of Everyone is aware that the hailing from rural areas, it is QR code. Letters emailed to
U.S. turns a blind eye towards the indiscriminate economy (Page 1, “U.S. Aadhaar and NREGA reliability of NDA government has been all the more difficult for [email protected]
killing of Palestinians by its ally and stays focused Navy sinks three Houthi Although the integration of Aadhaar­enabled payment dismissive, right from the them to comply with the must carry the full postal
only on the Houthis, it risks getting dragged vessels”, January 2). There Aadhaar with many systems as a result of issues outset, about MGNREGA, rigorous requirements. One address and the full name or
deeper into a widening regional conflict. is a bigger threat to the schemes has filled the gaps such as biometric which has proved its utility is at a loss to understand the name with initials.
CM
Social Media Pakistan 0342-4938217
A ND-NDE
YK
THE HINDU
Tuesday, January 2, 2024 7
Delhi
Opinion

The woes of pensioners and PF members A reluctance to act in Tamil Nadu


Cases of administrative inaction have put the spotlight on government and Governor

T
he Employees’ chose to get their pension beyond the present ₹ 1,000, which
Provident Fund coincidentally after the has been in force since the 2014
Organisation (EPFO)’s amendments get a lower pension amendments. The amount should expressed their disagreement
recent clarification on as their pensionable salary has at least be increased to ₹3,000, STATE OF PLAY and urged the state to rescind
the implementation of the 2022 been worked out based on the which was what the Bharatiya the promotion.
Supreme Court verdict on higher average pay of 60 months Janata Party demanded when it D. Suresh Kumar The end of 2023 also saw
Provident Fund (PF) pension T. Ramakrishnan preceding the date of exit from the was in the Opposition in January [email protected] another glaring case of admi­
seems to have added to the woes pension fund. In fact, this is one of 2014. The party had also nistrative inaction in Tamil Na­

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of pensioners and PF members. the illustrations given in the demanded that the pension be n May 24, 2018, M.K. du. On December 26, the Sa­
The EPFO, the administering clarification. Had they opted for linked to the cost of living index, Stalin, who was the lem City Police acted on a
body for the Employees’ Pension pension before the amendments which is again missing in the EPS. Leader of the Opposi­ complaint and arrested R. Ja­
Scheme (EPS) of 1995, has issued came into effect, their pension But in March 2022, the BJP­led tion in Tamil Nadu, had de­ gannathan, the Vice Chancel­
the clarification in the form of would have been higher, as it government informed the Rajya manded answers from the lor of Periyar University, on
frequently asked questions to would be based on the average Sabha that the High Empowered AIADMK government for the charges including criminal
enable proper implementation of pay of 12 months. Those who Monitoring Committee had stated “Tuticorin massacre”. He had “jointly and severally accoun­ conspiracy and cheating. Mr.
the Court’s judgment. As a matter expected the clarification to that doing this was “not feasible in sought the resignations of the table” for the killings in a re­ Jagannathan was accused of
of principle, the Court had redress their grievance are view of actuarial position.” At Chief Minister and Director port submitted in 2022 to the misusing his official position
approved the payment of higher frustrated. The clarification is also present, the government’s General of Police (DGP). “The Chief Minister by the Justice and floating a private compa­
pension subject to certain silent on when the EPFO will start contributions — around ₹8,715 TN Govt has been unable to Aruna Jagadeesan Commis­ ny, the Periyar University
conditions. It upheld the 2014 disbursing higher PF pension, as crore for 2022­23 — are in two give answers to #Tuticorin­ sion of Inquiry. The Commis­ Technology Entrepreneurship
amendments where the there are reports of some forms: the government pays 1.16% Massacre. We will ensure the sion recommended that “ac­ and Research (PUTER) Foun­
pensionable salary cap was raised pensioners getting a higher of the wages of up to ₹15,000 a protestors’ and peoples’ voic­ tion be taken against the dation, without obtaining the
to ₹15,000 a month from ₹6,500 a amount. Post­2014 retirees, who month as subsidy for contribution es from Tuticorin are heard in aforesaid police officers for government’s permission. The
month; employers were allowed to are apparently getting a higher towards EPS and additional Chennai. Our fight against this their acts of commission and university Registrar (full addi­
contribute 8.33% of the amount, feel that there is budgetary support to ensure #IncompetentEPS Govt will omission departmentally tional charge) K. Thangavel
employees’ actual pay (even if it ambiguity about the revised payment of the minimum monthly NOT stop till the resignations without prejudice to launch­ and two professors from other
exceeds the cap) towards EPS; and pension. They want a worksheet pension of ₹1,000 in respect of of the CM and DGP. #Sterlite­ ing criminal action” Justice Ja­ institutions were named as the
the basis for computation of as they find that the amount they those who would otherwise be Protest,” he had tweeted. Two gadeesan said, “The IG also co­accused. The four func­
pensionable salary was altered. received does not match the getting less. The government days earlier, during the prot­ has his own share of blame, tioned as directors of the com­
Later, the EPFO came up with two model formula circulated by the should increase its budgetary ests against Vedanta’s Sterlite for he had failed to evolve fit­ pany while using the universi­
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sets of procedures — one for those EPFO of taking 60 months average allocation, if not double it, to copper smelter plant in ting strategies on receipt of in­ ty’s address as their office.
who retired before September 1, pensionable salary. achieve a durable social security Thoothukudi, 13 people, in­ telligence inputs strongly sug­ Mr. Jagannathan, who was
2014 (the date of effect of Besides, illustrations carried in system for those who contribute cluding Snowlin, 18, were gesting there was a great granted conditional bail, has
amendments), and one for those the clarification with regard to the heavily to the economy. killed in police firing. likelihood of breach of peace.” since been hospitalised on
who retired after 2014. calculation of pension for Mr. Stalin had demanded When the Commission’s re­ health grounds, while the Re­
post­2014 retirees could have been A fresh look registration of a murder case port was tabled in the As­ gistrar has gone incommuni­
Issues in pension computation simpler. They do not explain every Also, there is no justification for against those involved in the sembly, Mr. Stalin had de­ cado. Surprisingly, no admi­
In the most contentious matter of crucial aspect concerning pension. the authorities to entertain any police firing, the withdrawal scribed the incident as a “big nistrative action has been
pension computation, the The clarification is also silent on longer the apprehension of the of the cases filed against the black mark” on the State’s his­ taken against Mr. Jagannathan
clarification, which states that when the EPFO will start corpus of the Pension Fund under protesters, and the release of tory and promised that those who continues to hold the
pension will be calculated as per disbursing higher PF pension, as the EPS getting eroded, if what the the arrested agitators. He had responsible would be brought post of Vice Chancellor. In the
paragraph 12 of the EPS, also says there are reports of some government conveyed to the even accused the AIADMK­led to book. He said that depart­ past, two Vice Chancellors of
that the date of commencement of pensioners getting a higher Upper House in August 2023 is of government of using “imper­ mental action had been initiat­ the erstwhile Anna University
pension will determine the amount. There is also a demand any indication. The total annual sonators for firing on and mur­ ed against the Collector and of Technology (Coimbatore)
applicable formula for calculation for incorporating the component contributions and the corpus dering the protesters.” senior police officers. An offic­ and Bharathiar University
of pensionable service, of interest rate, announced by the balance stood at about ₹64.886 More than five years later, er in the rank of Deputy Supe­ were suspended upon facing
pensionable salary, and pension. EPFO from time to time, at the crore and ₹7.8 lakh crore, as Chief Minister, Mr. Stalin is rintendent of Police and three corruption cases and arrest­
This has raised the eyebrows of time of calculating pension. As MP respectively, in 2022­23 against facing uncomfortable ques­ constables had already been ed, respectively.
the pensioners and PF members, (Rajya Sabha) M. Shanmugam of ₹42,376 crore and ₹3.94 lakh tions on his stand then and suspended, he added. In Mr. Jagannathan’s case,
as there is no reference to “the the DMK said, if the interest crore, respectively, in 2017­18. This now. What has put the issue The government’s decision the Raj Bhavan is yet to offi­
date of commencement of component is taken into account, has been attributed to growth in back in the spotlight is the go­ to promote Mr. Yadav as DGP cially state if Governor­Chan­
pension” in paragraph 2(xv), The government the pension amount would at least the membership as well as general vernment’s decision to pro­ has made the DMK’s allies, cellor R.N. Ravi has sought a
which deals with pensionable would do well see a rise of ₹2,300 per month. increase in wages. Besides, the mote Additional Director Gen­ such as the CPI and CPI(M), report about his arrest or re­
service, or in paragraph 10, which to come up with There is also no logic behind EPFO should be getting eral of Police Shailesh Kumar which were at the forefront of commended any action. The
defines pensionable service, or in halving the original amount of considerable returns, if not more, Yadav to the rank of DGP. Mr. the anti­Sterlite protests, un­ Higher Education Department
a system that
paragraph 11, which determines pension at the time of making from its annual investment in Yadav, who was Inspector comfortable. However, with too has not taken action
pensionable salary. addresses the widow or widower pension. exchange­traded funds too. General (IG) of Police (South) the Lok Sabha polls around against him despite the Vice
Going by the yardstick of the concerns of PF There has been a long­standing The government would do well at the time of the police firing, the corner, they are not in a Chancellor defying certain in­
date of commencement of members and demand for increasing the amount to devise a system that addresses featured on top of the list of 17 position to agitate aggressive­ structions from the govern­
pension, the pre­2014 retirees who pensioners of minimum monthly pension these concerns. police officers who were held ly. Instead. they have simply ment in the recent past.

Attacks in the Red Sea by the Houthis may hit India’s oil trade FR OM T H E A R C H IV E S

Suez Canal key to crude imports from Russia and refined fuel exports to Europe
FIFTY YEARS AGO JANUARY 2, 1974

DATA POINT
crude oil and petroleum product Pak. nationalises banks
volumes transiting the Suez Canal.
In the first half of 2023, the Nether­ Islamabad, Jan. 1: Pakistan has nationalised its
The Hindu Data Team lands was the single largest impor­ banking industry and assumed power to take
ter of such products, most of over the marketing of petroleum products and

Y
emen’s Iran­backed Houth­ which came from India. the shipping industry from to­day in a surprise
is have been targeting ves­ These two charts show the sig­ New Year’s day move.
sels in the Red Sea since nificant impact that the attacks on The Finance Minister, Mubassar Hussain, said
November to show their support commercial ships in the Red Sea that the nationalisation of the banks was a
for the Palestinian Islamist group can have on India’s petroleum pro­ revolutionary step and assured that the share
Hamas in its war against Israel. duct exports. Both show million holders would be paid compensation, in the
This has prompted major shipping barrels per day of oil shipments. shape of 15­year bonds.
companies to take the longer and An even bigger worry for India Foreign banks would not be allowed to open
costlier route around Africa’s Cape is the record amount of crude oil it new branches in the country. They, however,
of Good Hope rather than through imports from Russia. In FY24 will enjoy the same facilities as other banks,
the Suez Canal. This is a cause for (April­October), India imported Radio Pakistan reported.
concern for India as it is a major over $26,900 million worth of A spokesman of the State Bank of Pakistan in
importer of crude oil from Russia crude oil from Russia — its biggest Karachi said that only those banks with head
and a significant player in the ex­ source of oil this year — with Iraq offices registered in the country would be
port of petroleum products to Eu­ featuring a distant second ($15,582 affected. But a spokesman of the Pakistan Press
rope, both of which require tran­ million). A majority of this crude Information Department said all banks were
sportation through the Suez Canal. oil is arriving through the Suez Ca­ involved.
According to a recent Reuters nal southbound to India. However, later when a list of 14 banks being
report, at least four tankers tran­ Chart 2A shows southbound taken over was issued no foreign companies
sporting diesel and jet fuel from crude oil and petroleum product were included.
West Asia and India to Europe are volumes from origin countries In a nationwide radio broadcast to­day, Mr.
taking the longer route around transiting Suez Canal, in million Hussain said the nationalisation had been
Africa to avoid the Red Sea. The di­ barrels per day. In FY23 and FY24 carried out “to strengthen the country’s
verted vessels were carrying a (April­October), southbound sup­ economy and promote the welfare of the
combined 2.4 million barrels of ply of crude oil from Russia people. The nationalisation redeems an election
diesel and jet fuel. through the Suez Canal grew expo­ pledge made by Prime Minister, Z.A. Bhutto’s
India is increasingly becoming a nentially. Peoples Party,” he added.
significant player in the petroleum Chart 2B shows the destination Under the new law published to­day the right
products export market. In May countries of the southbound crude to establish a bank is transferred exclusively to
last year, data analytics firm Kpler oil and petroleum product vol­ the Government or a corporation wholly owned
reported that India became Eu­ umes transiting the Suez Canal. or controlled by it. Under the new law,
rope’s largest supplier of refined Most of the southbound crude ownership, management and control of all
fuels. In the ongoing and previous from Russia went to India followed banks together with all shares held by “private
financial years, the Netherlands by China in FY23 and FY24 (April­ persons” were transferred to the Government.
was the biggest importer of India’s October). These two charts show
refined fuels. In FY23 and FY24 the potential impact that the esca­
(April­October), the country lating tensions in the Red Sea can
bought about $19,300 million have on India’s crude oil imports
worth of refined fuel from India. from Russia and other countries A HUNDRED YEARS AGO JANUARY 2, 1924
These northbound oil ship­ which use this route.
ments reach Europe via the Suez Reports show that refiners in In­ Broadcasting Company
Canal. Chart 1A shows north­ dia are looking to increase supply
bound crude oil and petroleum from West Asia as otherwise, the report
product volumes from origin cost of imports may rise given the
countries transiting the Suez Canal risk involved in transporting oil British official wireless
and the SUMED pipeline (which through the Suez Canal. With retail Leafield (Oxford) Midnight, Jan 1: The British
transports crude oil north through fuel costs already at a historical Broadcasting Company states that the British
Egypt). India was the third biggest high in India, and the general elec­ Wireless telephone transmission has been heard
player in terms of petroleum pro­ tions approaching, it remains to be in Mtsopotamia. It is reported also that the
duct volumes sent north in the seen how this situation will unfold. London broadcasting station’s wireless
first half of 2023. programme has been heard at again in South
Chart 1B shows the destination With inputs from Reuters, AP and the U.S. Africa this time at Camps Ray. Dance and music
countries of the northbound Energy Information Administration were audible 15 yards from loud speakers.
CM
Social Media Pakistan 0342-4938217
A ND-NDE
YK
Delhi www.thehindu.com Tuesday, January 2, 2024
● ●

Text&Context 0
NEWS IN NUMBERS
Number of complaints Number of people Magnitude of Percent by which Migrants that crossed
of crime against Saudi Arabia executed earthquake that struck power consumption the Channel to Britain
women in 2023 in 2023 Japan dipped in December from Europe

28,811 170 7.5 2.3 30,000


About 55% of A total of 147 convicts Japan’s weather agency said The country’s power The
complaints were executed in 2022 in that it was one of more than consumption dipped to 119.07 no.
registered by the Gulf state. Those 50 quakes of 3.2 magnitude or Billion Units (BU) in December, of
the National Commission for Women were executed over the course of 2023 included more to rock the region on the New Year’s marking its first monthly decline in eight months migrants that crossed the Channel to
from Uttar Pradesh. The highest number of 33 people accused of terrorism­related Day holiday. Waves at least 1.2 meters (four due to lower demand for heating equipment, Britain from mainland Europe in 2023 saw
complaints were received in the right to crimes and two soldiers convicted of feet) high hit the Wajima port only around especially in the north, on account of mild an annual drop of more than a third. AFP
dignity category (8,540). PTI treason. AFP 10 minutes after the strongest quake. AFP winter. PTI COMPILED BY THE HINDU DATA TEAM

Follow us facebook.com/thehindu twitter.com/the_hindu instagram.com/the_hindu

India’s 1991 crisis and the RBI Governor’s role


S. Venkitaramanan had a pivotal role in steering India through the financial crisis by employing strategies like pledging gold reserves and implementing
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import compression, stabilising the country’s balance of payments; but despite the efforts, his legacy was overshadowed by subsequent economic reforms

“issues related to an unexpected breakout THE GIST


ECONOMIC NOTES of irregularities in securities transactions
from April 1992”, known to the public as
“the Harshad Mehta scam”. 쑽
Pulapre Balakrishnan S. Venkitaramanan led RBI’s
‘Remarkable openness’ efforts during India’s severe

S
.Venkitaramanan, an IAS officer Finally, having had the privilege of balance of payments stress in
who served as the Governor of glimpsing Mr. Venkitaramanan at work, I 1990­91, including initiatives to
the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) should narrate the experience. Sometime raise international loans and
from December 1990 to in the middle of 1991, I received a letter pledging India’s gold reserves,
December 1992 passed away recently. from him saying the RBI had noticed an which salvaged the country’s
Two events in which he had participated article of mine on a topic related to the financial reputation and
are worth recording. Both show him as a conduct of monetary policy, and that it prevented a potential default.
statesman who did his best for his would be happy to hear from me in
Legacy honoured: S. Venkitaramanan in New Delhi on November 26, 1992. THE HINDU ARCHIVES 쑽
country, for which he deserves to be person. This demonstrated a remarkable
remembered. openness, for I was not only unknown Under his leadership, RBI
been mocked by some in India. It only India’s non­debt payments. Though a professionally but also my paper was implemented import
The beginning reveals an ignorance of the world. For the government led by Narasimha Rao was to critical of research that had emerged from compression measures by
Starting in late 1990, India faced a severe RBI to have used its gold to stave off a take office in mid­1991 and set in motion the RBI. A follow up was to come soon raising cash margins on
balance of payments stress. This had been default was an act of courage. Indeed, it measures, including a devaluation of the after, when, in September of the same imports. This stringent strategy
precipitated by a slowing of inward was the smartest economic management. rupee, to improve the balance of year I was invited, along with over 20 significantly reduced the
current account deficit,
remittances and a rise in the price of oil It only needs to be recalled that India payments over the long term there is economists, to meet the Governor on the
stabilising the balance of
following the invasion of Kuwait by imports around 80 percent of its oil to reason to believe that the immediate measures taken to deal with the balance
payments.
Saddam Hussain. The current account of recognise the practical value of the improvement of the balance of payments of payments crisis. Noticeably, every
the balance of payments was subjected to manoeuvre. Default would have narrowed may be largely attributed to the import shade of opinion on the Indian economy, 쑽
a double whammy, a reduction of receipts India’s access to the global loan markets compression put in place by the RBI. This not to mention its geography, was He also displayed openness by
and a rise in the value of imports. In to finance its imports were its export is implied by the data, which show that represented at the table that day. But inviting diverse opinions and
1990­91 the current account deficit earnings to fall short in the future. With while imports contracted substantially in what was more impressive was that the experts, including critical
swelled to 3 percent of the GDP, a level the sale and pledging of India’s gold 1991­92 exports did not rise, they declined Governor responded to each presentation voices, to discuss critical
highest by far in two decades. There was reserves, a breathing space within the slightly. The RBI’s official history of the made. economic matters,
speculation that India would default on its payments crisis had been created. period states “At a critical time and in the So, I was not surprised when later I demonstrating an inclusive and
external payment obligations. It was at thick of the BoP crisis, the main task of heard those privy to the IMF’s non­hierarchical approach to
that moment that the RBI led by Mr. Economic reforms the Reserve Bank under the leadership of negotiations with the RBI said that Mr. decision­making.
Venkitaramanan played a sterling role, Before its efforts to raise international the Governor, Shri S. Venkitaramanan, Venkitaramanan would be quick to parry
which in effect came to pledging its gold loans, the RBI had begun a programme of turned out to navigate the country their arguments with research produced
to international banks for a hard currency import compression, implemented through the troubled waters.” It by economists based in India. Probably, it
loan. The details of these initiatives and mainly via raising the cash margin on concludes that the crisis was “successfully was this belief that a country must rely on
their significance are set out in the RBI’s imports. While this had commenced resolved”. However, it is the economic its intellectual resources that led him to
official history, “In April 1991, the before Mr. Venkitaramanan had assumed reforms that followed that have received establish the Development Research
Government raised $200.0 million from office as Governor, it was under him that attention from the public at the time, and Group within the RBI. It was meant as a
the Union Bank of Switzerland through a the policy assumed greater force. The understandably. Dr. Manmohan Singh vehicle to take independent economists
sale (with a repurchase option) of 20 cash margin was hiked four­fold between and his team had cut a dash with their to India’s central bank so that there would
tonnes of gold confiscated from October 1990 and April 1991. bold reconfiguration of the economic be professional interaction between its
smugglers (sic). Again, in July 1991, India Supplementary measures that raised the policy regime. Once the balance of staffers and stakeholders outside. In this,
shipped 47 tonnes of gold to the Bank of cost of imports were implemented too, payment crisis had passed, its architects though, he may not have fully succeeded.
England to raise another $405.0 million. together constituting a stringent effort to came to be forgotten and their heroic Today, the RBI’s struggle to control
This action helped the country repay its rein them in. This strategy turned out to guarding of India’s international prestige inflation reveals that it is perhaps more
international donors and creditors, be a winner, and the current account and financial credentials was left unsung eager to be seen to adhere to the current
though it was not sufficient to completely deficit flipped from a high of 3 percent in in the public sphere. And, for Governor orthodoxy in economics than to
absolve the country of the crisis.” The act 1990­91 to a mere .3 percent of GDP in Venkitaramanan himself, the ending of understand how India’s economy works.
of pledging the country’s gold, which 1991­92. This almost eliminated the need his term was less than glorious due to (Pulapre Balakrishnan is visiting Professor,
involved transporting it overseas, had to raise foreign exchange to finance what the RBI’s official history terms Krea University)

Why did FIU IND act against


September 2023 is likely to be actioned in THE GIST
2024,” she stated.

What considerations emerge when 쑽

virtual asset providers?


looking to regulate VDAs? On December 28, FIU IND
The Bureau for International Settlements issued show­cause notices to
(BIS), which is the global forum for nine offshore virtual digital
cooperation among central banks, in a asset service providers (VDA
report about financial stability from crypto SPs) for operating illegally and
How might the actions against non­compliant VDA SPs affect the users of these platforms, especially those assets in emerging economies (August not complying with the PMLA.
operating in India? What potential repercussions or implications could these enforcement actions have? 2023) observed three high­level policy
options under consideration. These 쑽
include an outright ban, containment and VDA SPs were brought under
Saptaparno Ghosh financial positions and potentially those entities who fit within the parameters regulation. BIS observed that an outright anti­money laundering/counter
suspicious transactions. This obligation of the March 2023 notification and are ban may not prove enforceable. This is financing of terrorism
The story so far: applies to all VDA SPs operating in India capable of providing the information FIU because of the pseudo­anonymous nature framework in March 2023,
mandating them to report

O
n December 28, the Financial irrespective of physical presence. and PMLA require.” Furthermore, Vipul of crypto markets. There could be a
Intelligence Unit India (FIU Non­registration made entities Kharbanda, an independent legal possibility that regulators lose all sight of verified identities, financial
IND) issued show­cause notices non­compliant despite serving Indian researcher, told The Hindu that VDA SPs the market, further shrinking their positions, and suspicious
to nine offshore virtual digital users. To put it in perspective, the entities adhering to KYC mandates would be transparency and making them less transactions, among other
asset service providers (VDA SPs), “though catering to a substantial part of beneficial for them only. “It addresses one predictable. Containment would imply obligations.
including Binance, Kucoin, Huobi, Bitfinex Indian users were not getting registered of the primary concerns of any regulator controlling the flows between crypto 쑽
and MEXC Global, among others. This was and coming under the Anti Money about the purported anonymity of the markets and traditional financial systems.
The objective is to monitor
for “operating illegally” without complying Laundering (AML) and Counter Financing crypto assets and their potential use for However, BIS argued that the strategy
financial transactions, curb
with the provisions of the Prevention of of Terrorism Network (CFT) framework”. unlawful purposes,” he stated, adding that would not address the vulnerabilities
money laundering, and prevent
Money Laundering Act, 2002 (PMLA). It Currently, 31 VDA SPs have registered with mandatory KYC verifications would ensure inherent in the crypto markets and could terror financing.
has also been written to the Secretary of FIU IND. lack of anonymity and businesses not result in financial stability risks.
the Ministry of Electronics and Information encountering multiple hurdles. About regulation, motivation to regulate
Technology to block URLs of the What purpose does the PMLA Separately, Ms. Adhikari also argues that the asset varies across jurisdictions. The
mentioned entities. compliance serve? the government has made it amply clear report holds that it must be ensured that
According to Ranjana Adhikari, Partner at that it intends to enforce PMLA obligations the benefits of regulating and supervising
What is the premise of the INDUSLAW, the objective of the PMLA and on offshore entities if they satisfy the are greater than the costs involved.
non­compliance? its reporting obligation are to enable ingredients of the March 2023 PMLA Furthermore, for emerging market
In March 2023, Virtual Digital Asset Service monitoring and tracking of financial notification on VDA SPs. “This is also in economies three issues are of importance,
Providers (VDA SPs) in India were brought transactions to curb money laundering and line with India’s efforts through the G­20 that is: defining the (regulatory) authority
under anti­money laundering/counter terror financing. She further observed, where it has been advocating for global or entity and their scope, then the scope of
financing of terrorism regulations. They “While there is no denying that such AML regulation of cryptocurrency and regulation in terms of either activity or
were mandated to comply with PMLA and CFT measures are imperative for consequently the framework proposed by entity, and lastly, filling in the data gaps to
2002, verify the identities of onboarded today’s global financial ecosystem, the FIU the International Monetary Fund and the understand the technology and
clients, and maintain records of their IND should seek compliance only from Financial Stability Board to the G­20 in interconnections.
CM
Social Media Pakistan 0342-4938217
A ND-NDE
YK
THE HINDU
Tuesday, January 2, 2024 9
Delhi
Text&Context
BUILDING BLOCKS The modern radiocarbon dating setup is
more sophisticated, of course. For

How radiocarbon dating


example, one of the most sensitive dating
setups uses accelerator mass
spectrometry (AMS), which can work with
organic samples as little as 50 mg.

revolutionised science Scientists use ‘regular’ mass


spectrometry to isolate ions that have the
same mass­to­charge ratio. They begin
with a sample – say, a minuscule fragment
of bone – and bombard it with electrons
The technology allowed scholars a clearer and measurable view of the past, clarifying the history of human to ionise its atoms.
migration, the rise and fall of civilisations, and undulations of the earth’s climate Next, they subject the ions to different
physical conditions that cause them to
separate according to their FROM THE ARCHIVES
Vasudevan Mukunth mass­to­charge ratio. For instance, they
can be energised by being accelerated

Know your
F
rom thermodynamics to GPS, and then deflected by electric or magnetic
from social systems theory to fields. Ions with different mass­to­charge
studies of consciousness, time ratios are deflected to different extents.
plays an essential role in how we
study, interpret, and understand the
natural universe and the peoples and
AMS adds one more filter to this setup:
a particle accelerator that energises the
ions a thousand­times more. As a result,
English
technologies that occupy it. Keeping time isotope ions of the same mass and
in particular allows us to understand its different ions with the same K. Subrahmanian
passage and the change by which that mass­to­charge ratio also become more
passage is characterised. separable. In this way, all the carbon­14 MR. P. V. Srinivasan, Sambandam Street,
The technique called radiocarbon from a sample can be isolated and Mandaveli, Madras, wants to know the
dating brought the first verifiable way to examined to estimate the bone fragment’s meaning of ‘lampoon’.
do this to many fields of science, age. ‘Lampoon’ is ‘a piece of writing fiercely
transforming them – and our world – to a Geiger counters are available to attacking a person, government, etc. by
significant degree. purchase for a few tens of thousands of making them look foolish’. It is also used
rupees and can be operated by hand. as a verb. To lampoon is ‘to publicly
What is radiocarbon dating? Particle accelerators require specialised ridicule in a lampoon’.
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‘Dating’ is a method by which the age of training and skill as well as a few crore The Minister was upset at the way he
an object can be determined. rupees, but their utility is equally was lampooned by the writer.
Radiocarbon dating refers to a method disproportionate. Mr. R. V. Hiremath, Saraswathpur,
that does this using radiocarbon, a name For example, AMS has allowed Dharwar, wants to know how to use (a)
for the isotope carbon­14. geologists to date rocks by measuring the esoteric and (b) hiatus.
Carbon­14 is created in the earth’s relative amounts of the strontium­87 ‘Esoteric’ means ‘unusual, secret, or
atmosphere when cosmic rays – energetic isotope. mysterious and known only by a few
streams of charged particles coming from Naturally occurring rubidium­87 people, especially intimates’. This is a
sources in outer space – slam into the decays to strontium­87 with a half­life of formal word.
atoms of the gases and release neutrons. 49.2 billion years. Strontium­87 is one of I don’t understand this book at all. It is
When these neutrons interact with the four strontium isotopes and the only one all so esoteric.
nitrogen­14 nitrogen isotope, they can to not also be produced by stars. So These are all esoteric rituals that can
produce carbon­14. measuring the ratio of strontium­87 to any be understood and appreciated only by a
Since cosmic rays are ceaselessly of the other isotopes could yield a rock’s select few. ‘Esoteric’ is from ‘The Greek
passing through the earth’s atmosphere, age. ‘esoterikos’ which means ‘inner,
carbon­14 is created constantly there. innermost’. ‘Hiatus’ means ‘gap in a series
Carbon­14 readily combines with How did radiocarbon dating change or sequence, making it incomplete; break
atmospheric oxygen to form radioactive science? in continuity’. This is a formal word.
carbon dioxide. This compound then According to the American Chemical There was a hiatus of three hours before
enters the bodies of plants (via Innovation nexus: An accelerator mass spectrometer at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Society, “radiocarbon dating provided the the session resumed. The ‘i’ in ‘hiatus’ is
photosynthesis), animals (when they California, August 2007. SPECIAL ARRANGEMENT first objective dating method – the ability pronounced like the ‘i’ in ‘find’, the ‘a’ is
consume plants), and other biomass to attach approximate numerical dates to pronounced like the ‘ai’ in ‘maid’ and the
through the carbon cycle. How does radiocarbon dating work? declined by more than 99%. organic remains”. like the ‘a’ in ‘India’. The stress is on the
In the early 1940s, the American When an organic entity – like the human For this reason, its effects on the fields second syllable. The first ‘e’ in ‘esoteric’ is
chemists Martin Kamen and Sam Ruben body – is ‘alive’, it constantly exchanges What are the tools of radiocarbon of archaeology and geology have come to pronounced like the ‘e’ in ‘bed’; it is also
found a way to synthesise carbon­14 in the carbon with its surroundings by dating? be called the “radiocarbon revolution”. pronounced ‘i’ as in ‘ink’, ‘o’ is
lab as well as that its half­life – the time breathing, consuming food, defecating, The instrument of choice in Libby’s time Radiocarbon dating allowed pronounced like the ‘o’ in ‘tone’, it is also
taken to decay to half its original mass – shedding skin, etc. Through these to study radioactive decay was the Geiger researchers to date sites of archaeological pronounced like the ‘a’ in ‘India’, the
was around 5,000 years, and not a few activities, carbon­14 is both lost from the counter. It consists of a Geiger­Muller tube importance, check whether two objects second ‘e’ is pronounced ‘e’ as in ‘bet’, ‘i’
hours as expected. In 1939, the body as well as replenished, so its connected to some electronics that found at the same time are equally old, is pronounced ‘i’ as in ‘ink’ and ‘c’ is
Finnish­American physicist Serge Korff concentration in the body is nearly interpret and display signals. and compare the ages of objects found at pronounced ‘k’. The stress is on the third
found that it’s possible to produce constant and in equilibrium with its The Geiger­Muller tube contains a far­flung sites. syllable.
carbon­14 by bombarding nitrogen­14 with surroundings. When this individual dies, noble gas, such as helium or neon, and a In essence, it allowed scholars a clearer Ms. R. Sarada Vijayasri, Danavaipet,
neutrons – as cosmic rays do. Inspired by the body no longer performs these rod passing through the centre. A high and measurable view of the past, opening Rajahmundry, wants to know the
these findings, the American physical activities and the concentration of voltage is maintained between the tube’s the door to findings whose importance meaning of ‘His bark is worse than his
chemist Willard Libby is credited with carbon­14 in the body begins to dwindle inner surface and the rod. resonate to this day – including the bite’.
conceiving the idea of using carbon­14 to through radioactive decay. The gas is insulating, so no current can history of human migration, the rise and Some dogs bark a lot but don’t bite.
date organic materials, which he The more time passes, the more the pass between the two. But when energetic fall of civilisations, the birth of languages They appear fierce but won’t harm you. A
published in the journal Physical Review amount of carbon­14 lost, and the less particles (including gamma radiation), and religions, the evolution of man may appear tough, angry or fierce,
in 1946. there will remain. This decay rate can be such as those emitted during radioactive human­animal interactions, and but will not harm you. About such
Notably, Libby’s idea made two predicted from theory. decay, pass through the gas, they can undulations of the earth’s climate. people, you say that their barks are worse
assumptions that weren’t exactly known Radiocarbon dating dates an object by energise electrons in the gas’s atoms and Radiocarbon dating is also of political than their bites. They ‘scold and abuse
to be true at the time. measuring the amount of carbon­14 left, produce an electric discharge. significance in India, where researchers roundly, but do not bear malice or act
First, the concentration of carbon­14 in which scientists and/or computers can The persistent voltage could also and politicians alike have invoked its use harshly’.
the earth’s atmosphere doesn’t change use to calculate how long ago the body encourage these electrons to knock off to date objects retrieved from temples Mr. M. Sreedharan; Rayarangotti,
across thousands of years. If it did, expired. In the late 1940s, Libby and electrons in more atoms, producing a and mosques. Scientists have also Badagara, wants to know the difference
radiocarbon dating – which dates organic chemist James Arnold tested this bigger discharge (called the Townsend continued to refine the technique and between ‘admonish’ and ‘reprimand’.
materials by measuring the amount of technique by dating objects whose ages discharge). This electric signal is relayed account for any remaining flaws. For ‘Admonish’ means ‘to warn or speak to
carbon­14 they contain – wouldn’t work. were already known through other means to the electronics, where, say, a light may example, in 2018, archaeologists at with gentle disapproval’.
Second, carbon­14, in the form of – including redwood trees (age estimated come on in response, indicating that Cornell University, New York, reported He was admonished for coming late to
carbon dioxide and other carbon from tree rings) and a piece of the radioactive decay is happening nearby. evidence of the radiocarbon cycle the meeting.
compounds, would have to be able to funerary boat of an Egyptian pharaoh Libby and his colleagues built on the deviating from the expected version at ‘Reprimand’ is ‘to express strong
diffuse into the earth’s various ecosystems (whose death had been recorded at the Geiger counter to create a device called certain points between 1610 and 1940. official disapproval of something or
such that the concentration of carbon­14 time). the ‘anti­coincidence counter’: a sample As a result, they said, radiocarbon somebody’. He received a severe
in the atmosphere was comparable to the They found the technique could indeed was surrounded by Geiger counters that dating to these periods could be off by reprimand for his remarks against the
concentration of carbon­14 in the planet’s estimate their ages correctly and had been tuned to ignore the background around 19 years. Chairman of the Rajya Sabha.
other biospheres. published their findings in the journal level of radiation, and the setup was In 2020, researchers from Cyprus, the ‘Reprimand’ and ‘admonish’ are formal
Some preliminary studies Libby Science in 1949. housed inside thick shielding that further Netherlands, and Russia reported a way words. Other synonyms are rebuke,
conducted at the time, with his student Since carbon­14 decays with a half­life subtracted background radiation. To to improve the time resolution of reprove, reproach, chide.
Ernest Anderson, indicated this was the of around 5,730 years, its presence can be further improve results, the team also radiocarbon dating – the smallest period Ms. K. L. Shah, Ahmedabad, wants to
case. used to date samples that are around 60 purified the sample. of time to which it could date objects – know the meaning of ‘to hinge on’.
Fortunately for Libby, scientific studies millennia old. from decades to specific points within a To hinge on’ or ‘to hinge upon’ means
that came later proved both these Beyond that, the concentration of How does modern radiocarbon year, using “recent developments in ‘to depend on’. The success of any
assumptions to be valid. carbon­14 in the sample would have dating work? atmospheric science“. institution hinges on the cooperation of
the people working in it. You don’t use
the progressive form with ‘hinge’. That is,
you don’t say ‘It is hinging on this’, ‘it was
hinging on this,’ etc. A hinge is a piece of
THE DAILY QUIZ Please send in your answers to
[email protected]
metal on which a lid, door or gate turns
or swings as it opens and closes’. The
smooth opening or closing of a door
As we move on to 2024, here is a quiz on some notable sporting achievements in the depends on the hinge. So ‘to hinge on’
means ‘to depend on’.
year gone by Everything hinges on his willingness to
participate in the talks.
V. V. Ramanan Questions and Answers to the previous day’s daily Published in The Hindu on July 31, 1990
quiz: 1. In 45 BCE, the Julian calendar took effect as the
X calendar of the Roman Empire. Which famous personality,
QUESTION 1 immortalised by Shakespeare, brought this into effect? Ans:
Max Verstappen dominated the Formula One season winning 19 of the 22 Julius Caeser
races. 2. On January 1, 1887, Queen Victoria was given a title of
Apart from his Red Bull teammate Sergio Pérez, who else managed a win and great significance. What was this title? Ans: Empress of
where? India
X 3. Which famous revolution culminated in the ousting of
QUESTION 2 Fulgencio Batista on January 1, 1959? Ans: The Cuban
From which club did Chelsea sign midfielder Moises Caicedo in a record deal Revolution
worth £115m? 4. This British Special Operations Executive agent of Indian
X origin known by the code name Madeline was born on this
QUESTION 3 day. She was posthumously awarded the George Cross, the
Who was the Gujarat Titans' bowler whose last two deliveries were dispatched highest civilian decoration for gallantry for her services, in
for a six and four by Ravindra Jadeja to pull off an improbable fifth IPL the U.K. Who was she? Ans: Noor Inayat Khan
triumph for Chennai Super Kings? 5. This is a small volcanic rock in the South Atlantic. What is
X this island called and how is it popularly known? Ans:
QUESTION 4 Bouvet Island. It is the world's most remote island
When javelin thrower Neeraj Chopra nailed his maiden World Championship Visual: This Indian polymath, Padma Bhushan awardee,
gold, two more Indians finished in the top six. Name them. Fellow of the Royal Society, and collaborator with Albert For feedback and suggestions for
X X Einstein was born on January 1. Ans: Satyendra Nath Text & Context, please write to
QUESTION 5 Visual Question: Bose [email protected]
Tennis legend Boris Becker, who was released from prison in December 2022, Name this NBA star who was voted the MVP last Early Birds: M. K. Sudhakar | Joel G Mathew | Akshat Tiwari with the subject ‘Text & Context’
made a return to the circuit as the coach of which upcoming Danish star? season. AP | M Suresh Kumar | Sourav Kundu
CM
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TUESDAY ­ JANUARY 2 ­ 2024

TUESDAY ­ JANUARY 2, 2024


GOVIND BHATTACHARJEE

Stress signals
T
he 16th Finance
Commission (FC) is about
to be constituted for
Good to see FSR going beyond reported financials recommending the
devolution of Central taxes
and grants to States. The RBI’s just
he global economy and financial system are

T
published report: “State Finances: A
not yet out of the woods despite warding off study of Budgets” has red­flagged the
issues the FC will certainly be asked to
recession in 2023. But India’s banking and look into, like States reverting to the Old
financial system have successfully weathered Pension Scheme (OPS), and
domestic rate hikes and global shocks. This seems to unsustainable subsidies flowing from

PERIASAMY M
the guarantees or freebies promised at
be the main message from Reserve Bank of India’s the time of elections, regardless of the
latest Financial Stability Report (FSR) for six financial conditions of States.

Finance panel should


months ending September 2023. The report presents Under Article 280(3) of the
Constitution, apart from
data to show that not just banks, but also NBFCs, are recommending the devolution of taxes
sitting pretty with healthy capital buffers, strong and grants­in­aid to the States, the FC
asset quality and high provision cover — with net may be asked by the Centre to look into
any other issue “in the interest of sound

curb populism
non­performing assets (NPAs) at decadal lows (0.8 finance”.
per cent for banks and 1.5 per cent for NBFCs). The 15th FC proposed measurable
performance­based incentives for States
Yet, recent Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in “incurring expenditure on populist
actions curbing bank lending to NBFCs and measures”.
Alternative Investment Funds, show that
despite the picture of health conveyed by
CURBING POPULISM FISC MATTERS. The 15th Finance Commission provided only 2.5 per cent weightage to
This attracted widespread criticism,
reported numbers, it is worried about because both States and the Centre fiscal efficiency in devolution. The 16th FC could review this norm
certain areas of stress. On the positive side, indulge in populisms to serve their
1869753

1869753
after performing the usual stress tests the respective political ends. Besides the of the deteriorating finances and rising been treated as dispensable by the FCs, States may face, which acts as a
two may also differ on what constitutes debt of States post­Covid. while equalisation has taken the driver’s disincentive for States to undertake
FSR finds that not a single commercial bank populism. It also may amount to Other institutions, like the Supreme seat. While the 14th FC did not consider fiscal reforms.
would breach minimum capital norms even Centre’s intrusion into States’ Court or the Election Commission any efficiency criteria, the 15th FC gave Many States have deficits because of
in case of a severe macroeconomic shock. legislative powers. before whom the matter came up, could only 2.5 per cent weightage to the fiscal subsidies for populist measures like free
Similarly, a 250­basis point rise in yields A better mechanism to control such also not do much. efficiency as measured by tax effort electricity etc.
would cause only one bank to fall short of expenditure would be through After all, delivering welfare remains (Own Tax to GSDP ratio). The RBI An assessment of the FY2022 Finance
consensus between the Centre and the primarily a legislative function, not report rightly argued for fiscal efficiency Accounts of all States show that States
capital. The FSR does not seem to have States rather than through FC judicial. But the single­minded focus of parameters to encourage fiscal spent 0.87 per cent of their GSDPs on
found any overt evidence of rising devolution, but this is well­nigh political parties to win elections at any consolidation. the average on subsides, but a few States
delinquencies in unsecured retail loans by impossible given the fractious nature of cost is driving the need and urgency of Of late, some Opposition­ruled States spent much more (Punjab 2.35 per cent,
banks. Banks have reported a fall in GNPAs politics in India. checking such profligacy. have reverted to the OPS under which Rajasthan 1.92 per cent, MP 1.69 per
As the 15th FC noted in its report, Finance Commission may not be governments incurred indefinite cent, Chhattisgarh 1.62 per cent, Bihar
on unsecured retail loans from 2.5 per cent States also stressed that the equipped or even mandated to deal with liabilities toward their employees’ and Jharkhand 1.58 per cent, etc.). The
to 2 per cent in the past year. Yet trouble categorisation of schemes into populist the political aspects related to freebies, pension, reversing the New Pension argument that backward States need
seems to be lurking in the ‘divergent and non­populist cannot be done but since in recommending transfers, it Scheme (NPS) introduced in 2004, more funds to improve delivery of
underwriting practices’ of NBFCs which objectively, as development must consider the finances of both the whereby this liability was limited to the services falls flat in view of these data.
requirements differ from State to State. Centre and the States, it can play a serving life of the employees. Populism of a particular State cannot
banks fund, under co­lending tie­ups. Also since elected governments are positive role in highlighting the strains Five States have already done so, be financed by taxpayers of other States
With 90 per cent of NBFC retail loans accountable to the States’ people, it is in finances that freebies create, often while two others — West Bengal and which is what any FC transfer does in
being given out by smaller, less­regulated they, rather than the FC, who should forcing States to borrow beyond their Tamil Nadu — have never even effect. The RBI report rightly argued for
Investment and Credit NBFCs, RBI admits have the prerogative of deciding welfare capacity and passing on the burden to implemented the NPS. An internal RBI the FC to consider higher share of
to challenges in identifying systemic risks schemes. future taxpayers, affecting future study measured this liability to be 4.5 conditional transfers to States “based on
The FC’s response was only to lay growth. times more in case of OPS compared to reforms, quality of expenditure and
here. Stress testing of NBFCs reveals that down the principle that adequate FC transfers are generally based on the NPS, with the additional burden fiscal sustainability.”
they are not as well­placed as banks to incentives should be given to States the triple criteria of equity, equalisation reaching 0.9 per cent of GDP by 2060. If populism is the choice of a State, it
handle a spike in defaults. In a severe stress based on outcomes, and the and efficiency. But fiscal efficiency has The RBI report pointed out that this must be at its own cost and risk. If it
scenario, 21 NBFCs of the sample of 146 outcome­based indicators should be retrograde step will restrict growth, passes the cost to future through
would fall short of capital. There is also
fixed against each incentive using Populism of a particular undermine the benefits of past reforms unfunded borrowings, it must pay the
credible and verifiable data. and compromise the interest of future price.
evidence that the scramble among lenders The FC provided some sector­specific State cannot be financed generations.
for consumer credit is leading to a dilution incentives on health, education, by taxpayers of other The writer is currently a Professor of Practice at the
agriculture, etc., based on the above EXCESSIVE EXPENDITURE Arun Jaitley National Institute of Financial Management
of underwriting standards. The FSR notes
principles. The issue is almost certain to States which is what any FCs provide grants to States for bridging and former Director­General at the Office of the CAG
that 7.3 per cent of all customers availing be referred again to the 16th FC in view FC transfer does in effect. any post­devolution revenue deficit the of India,
personal loans below ₹50,000 were already
in default of one loan and 42.7 per cent of
those taking consumption loans were
already servicing as many as three loans.
About 8.2 per cent of personal loans turned
delinquent within a year of origination.
Apart from pinpointing where risks lie, this
Could ‘influencer capital’ reshape corporate boards?
data offers a counter­point to the narrative
that households are on a borrowing spree
An influencer on the board can enhance the company’s image and offer expertise but some checks are needed
because they are sanguine about their companies to navigate the complex meaningful change. Smaller companies
future. Outside of consumer loans, pain P Saravanan compliance and dealing with might not have the resources to attract
A Paul Williams government policy matters. high­profile influencer figures,
points exist in MSME loans particularly the
Further, influencer capital provides a potentially exacerbating existing
ECLGS rolled out during Covid (GNPA of

I
magine a boardroom not just filled boost to the company’s brand imageand competitive inequalities.
6.5 per cent) and agricultural loans, where with financial gurus and industry attract investors. Having an esteemed So, how could companies harness the
GNPA is already at 7 per cent. veterans, but also seasoned scientist on the board of a biotech power of influencer capital while
It is good to see the FSR going beyond bureaucrats, policy minds, and even company could probably boost mitigating the risks? Here are some key
reported financials to try and identify social impact leaders. These are the consumer confidence in its research and considerations. Focus on expertise, not
changemakers, the thought leaders, the development practices. In addition to just titles. Prioritise board members with
segments where the next credit bubbles public figures who bring more to the that it might also enhance the relevant experience and knowledge, not
could be building up. However, if the RBI table than just financial and business stakeholder confidence and legitimacy. just impressive names.
acumen. Public figures especially social impact COMPANY BOARDS. Diversity Implement clear conflict of interest
believes that lenders are downplaying pays/ISTOCKPHOTO
default risks, it will need to undertake Yes, many companies are keen on leaders often boast extensive networks policies and ensure transparency in
inducting such people in their boards, within specific industries or board member selection and
Asset Quality Reviews. When it comes to who are popularly known as influencers, communities. These connections could more informed decision­making and compensation. Avoid homogenous
dealing with asset quality, a stitch in time as a capital to leverage their reputation, open the doors for companies seeking to better risk assessment. Further it helps in boards and seek diverse perspectives,
saves nine. network, and expertise of enter new markets, forge strategic strengthening stakeholder engagement. including traditional industry experts
non­traditional board members to gain partnerships and build community trust. alongside influencers.
an edge in areas like stakeholder Ahuman rights lawyer joining a THE DOWNSIDES Influencers as a capital, when used
engagement, navigating complex social fashion company board could encourage Just like any powerful tool, influencer judiciously, could be a powerful force for
POCKET RAVIKANTH issues, etc. Influencers injectdiverse ethical sourcing practices, and capital comes with potential downsides. good, propelling companies towards
viewpoints and experiences into the innovative ways to empower workers. The lines between influence and better performance, stronger
boardroom, fostering out­of­the­box Influencers’ insights help companies expertise could blur sometimes. governance, and a more positive impact
thinking and creative problem­solving. adapt to changing societal values, Revolving doors between government on society.
mitigate reputational risks, and capitalise and corporations could raise concerns However, vigilance and ethical
POTENTIAL BENEFITS on new opportunities. about regulatory capture and conflicts of frameworks are crucial to keep a check on
The potential benefits of having In an era of heightened awareness of interest. influencers. This will help companies to
influencers in the board are significant. corporate social responsibility such Sometimes, companies might be unlock the potential of this double­edged
For instance, often bureaucrats, influencers bring fresh perspectives and tempted to appoint trophy board sword.
preferably retired, are sought after expertise to address complex social members with impressive titles who may
because of their regulatory savvy nature. issues. Having diverse board certainly have little relevant expertise. This could Saravanan is a professor of finance and accounting at IIM
Bureaucrats offer deep government and helps to break group thinking and silos be a form of greenwashing, aimed at Tiruchirappalli and Williams is an analyst at Sernova
regulatory knowledge, helping within the boardroom. This leads to appeasing stakeholders without Financial

LETTERS TO EDITOR Send your letters by email to [email protected] or by post to ‘Letters to the Editor’, The Hindu Business Line, Kasturi Buildings, 859­860, Anna Salai, Chennai 600002.

Better wait and watch 2024 it may be too early to draw familial connections, shape rules that provisions to bear with external misconception about the standard
This refers to the optimistic editorial positive conclusions. The contribute to the mass departure of shocks. Even though reinsurance is a agricultural practices to term the
‘India’s economy poised to do well in forthcoming pre­budget 'economic talented individuals. Despite aspiring relief measure to shift risk, it is not produce organic.
2024’ (January 1). It is encouraging survey' could be more reliable for the to a $5­trillion economy and commensurate to cover massive Although the markets for such
to learn that the country's key purpose. developed status, the country is risks in Motor Insurance. produce are dominated by urban
macros are in good shape and the SK Gupta grappling with a critical issue – the The way forward is either to merge populace, there is no agency to
government also committed to New Delhi exodus of its best minds. Identifying the insurers to create a consolidated authenticate the genuineness of the
provide a congenial atmosphere for the root cause and finding solutions entity and infuse funds to reinforce chemical­free produce.
business, industrial growth, and Looking abroad become imperative. the liquidity of the PSUs in non­life Under the circumstances, it is
investment opportunities. Indian billionaires are relocating, top Girish R Edathitta insurance. essential to persuade the farmers to
The Editorial quite aptly observes students are pursuing opportunities Pathanamthitta (Kerala) NR Nagarajan shift from chemical farming to
that India is placed on a comfortable abroad, and even government Sivakasi organic without burdening them
perch as it enters the New Year. It employees are extending work Insurance imperatives with either loss of crop yield or fiscal
also banks upon the Modi overseas. The nation witnesses a Apropos ‘PSU general insurers need Farming ‘naturally’ revenue by offering them cash
government striking a political significant brain drain, with over a to be turned around’ (January 1), Apropos ‘Natural farming needs incentives especially during the
'hat­trick' during 2024 general million Indians relinquishing since the claims on Non life better prices, markets’ (December transition period and its marketing
elections to spur the investor citizenship in the last decade alone. insurance is more than life insurance, 28). Natural and organic farming is must be handled by a nodal agency.
confidence. The only permanent residents seem general insurers have to take steps to already in practice by a small Rajiv Magal
Though the prospects look good for to be politicians who, often through keep up their liquidity and make segment of Indian farmers, who have Halekere Village (Karnataka)

Published by Nirmala Lakshman and Printed by S. Ramanujam at HT Media Ltd. Plot No. 8, Udyog Vihar, Greater Noida Distt. Gautam Budh Nagar, U.P. 201306, on behalf of THG PUBLISHING PVT LTD., Chennai­600002. Editor: Raghuvir Srinivasan (Editor responsible for selection of news under the PRB Act). ISSN 0971 ­ 7528

CM
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TUESDAY ­ JANUARY 2 ­ 2024

Metal prices could firm up


Thanks to interest rate cuts, demand from China
Water governance reforms overdue
G Chandrashekhar
FIRE FIGHTING. A regulator for the entire water sector at the State level is needed. Only 5 States have water regulators
from 20.6 bcm (2017) to 9.7 bcm (2022),

C
oncerns over supplies and there is an increase in reuse of water
following the from 17 per cent of total treated
Russia­Ukraine war eased wastewater to 24 per cent (2022).
substantially during 2023, but
demand concerns came to the SK SARKAR AGENDA FOR ACTION
fore with aggressive rate hikes led In India, water is a State subject except

A
by the US Federal reserve, t 1.4 billion, India accounts inter­State regulation of rivers which, as
elevated levels of inflation, fear of 17.5 per cent of the world’s per the Constitution of India, is under
economic slowdown and China’s population but has only 4 per Central purview. Therefore, any water
tepid post­Covid recovery. METALS. Set to glitter in 2024 cent of the fresh water sector restructuring should be mainly at
The US Fed has pivoted resources. The per capita the State level with proper overview by
interest rates, which means there annual fresh water availability has gone the Central Government. An
may be no more rate hikes even as per cent towards $9300/t by down from 5177 cu m (1951) to 1486 cu institutional mechanism covering the
inflation is beginning decline. The end­2024. m(2019) (see Table). Thus India is a Centre and States should be created to
question now is: when will the Fed Nickel: Indonesia’s class 2 water stressed country; out of 766 work for cooperative federalism in water
start cutting interest rates? It is nickel production has risen districts, 256 are water stressed. By 2050, governance. The existing National Water
reasonable to believe that it may rapidly and has pulled prices India is likely to experience water Resource Council should be revamped.
not happen anytime soon, but down in 2023 by over 40 per cent. scarcity. Second, the water agencies
most likely towards the end of the LME inventories are unlikely to Among the G20 countries, India’s per established in Saudi Arabia areworth
second quarter or early third rise soon. Nickel can potentially capita GDP is the lowest. India aspires to emulating given that rainfall is erratic
quarter 2024. rise to about $20,000/t during become the second largest economy by due to global warming. For example,
In the second half of 2024, the 2024. 2047. This will have an enormous impact establishing institutions akin to those set
US and Euro zone are expected to Zinc: The metal has faced on the use of water resources by various up by Saudi Arabia may enable India
come out of recession. In persistently weak demand due to stakeholders. India receives water during achieve higher irrigation water use
addition, activities in China are slowdown in steel production monsoon and from the melting of ice. efficiency, better treatment of
likely to pick up momentum. following challenges in the Rainfall is erratic and the data wastewater and their use, greater private
The global base metals market construction sector. At the same (1990­2021) showthat about 30 per cent sector participation in water sector, etc.
struggled most part of 2023 for time, LME stocks have been of the districts received less than normal Third, there is a need to introduce an
several reasons including rising. It is reasonable to expect South­West monsoon rainfall in 20 out of overarching institution for regulating
challenges faced by the property that the metal may trade at 32 years. This tendency is likely to the entire water sector at the State level.
1869753

1869753
sector in China. The market has of $2700/t towards end­2024. increase in the coming years due to global At present, out of 28 States, only a few
late found some support in the warming and climate change. have water regulators. Their jurisdiction
form of changing sentiment. For PRECIOUS METALS The water sector hasn’t seen the kind (Australia, Saudi Arabia); and and were positioned for improved water on the overall performance of the water
one, major central bankers may Gold: The yellow metal gained of far­reaching reforms the electricity groundwater management (China and management: (a) the Ministry of sector is not comprehensive, and their
have ended their rate hike cycle around 12 per cent in 2023. and telecom sectors have witnessed.. Slovakia). These approaches are worth Environment, Water and Agriculture is core functions such as tariff regulation,
and are expected to start cutting Inflation and safe haven demand Water management is beset by emulating. Although per capita annual given the overall in­charge of developing checking quality of service and
rates by the middle of the year. due to geopolitical developments bureaucratic hurdles, there’s lack of renewable water is 67 cu m (2019) in sector strategy, managing surface and monitoring compliance, monitoring the
Further, the Chinese have combined to push prices equity in water access, and British Saudi Arabia, it has one of the highest per ground water resources, and ensuring utility’s financial viability, adjudication of
government has shown intent to higher of late. Now, rate­cut common law, especially in giving capita income in the world. In 2018, the that all the water agencies work together; disputes, consumer protection, and
prop the slowing economy, expectations are beginning to unlimited power of groundwater country developed National Water (b) the bulk water supply agency is the enforcement of licencing conditions are
especially the construction sector, support. Central bank purchases withdrawal to the owner of land (Article Strategy (NWS) 2030 based on Saline Water Conversion Corporation not explicit. A model water regulatory
with adequate financial support. and a weakening dollar are also 7(g) of Easement Act 1882), is still integrated water resources management which is responsible for desalinated framework should be developed for
In this backdrop we must crystal supportive, boosting speculative followed. approach. water production and transmission to adoption by various States, and they
gaze into 2024. interest. Physical demand in Cooperative federalism in water The objective was to attain water major urban areas; (c) the Water should be incentivised for early
Aluminium: China is the most price­sensitive Asia markets — governance, adoption of availability, comply with quality, achieve Technology and Transmission Company introduction of water regulators.
important market to watch. While China, India — will be tepid. If multidisciplinary expertise, bridging environmental and economic will own and operate long distance water Finally, the existing institutions
major countries do not buy from global economic growth silos in water sector, and building sustainability and affordability, and transmission network; (d) the National operating at the Central State levels need
Russia because of western prospects improve in the second multi­stakeholder partnership are the reform the water and wastewater sectors Water Company deals with national to examined. At Central level, the CWC
sanctions, China is able to obtain half of 2024, stock markets may need of the hour. to ensure the development of water water including wastewater as a utility; (Central Water Commission) and
the metal from Russia. This is overshadow gold. Therefore, resources. The strategy was taken up by (e) the Saudi Water Partnership CGWB (Central Ground Water Board)
keeping the prices in check. investors have to exercise caution G20 EXPERIENCE restructuring of the water sector to Company deals with build, operate and need to be restructured to ensure
Demand for aluminium from the and not get carried away by Recent meetings of G20 countries increase efficiency, setting regulations, transfer contracts, wastewater multidisciplinary expertise with various
electric vehicle (EV) industry is outlandish forecasts of gold prices discussed innovations in water building capacity, and increasing treatment plants, water transmission divisions reflecting various water
sure to provide a boost to prices in the months ahead. By the end of management in the areas of water use reliability. lines and water storage facilities; (f) the priorities. States should also examine
over 2024. There’s potential for a 2024, gold may trade in the efficiency (Turkey, the UK, Saudi Arabia, Under the NWS, a few sector agencies Saudi Irrigation Organisation is in charge their varied water institutions/
recovery towards $2,800 a tonne $2100­2150 an ounce range. India); river rejuvenation (Australia, of building up of the country’s irrigation departments for sustainable water
by the end of the year. Silver: The market has been in China, France, India, South Africa); The water agencies infrastructure, and developing the resource management in the states. This
Copper: As a metal of deficit for five years in a row, yet climate resilient infrastructure (the UK established in Saudi wastewater reuse sector, and (g) there is approach will enable India to achieve
electrification, demand for silver underperformed gold in and the US); safe drinking water an overarching water regulator for various Sustainable Development Goals
copper will remain robust in 2024, 2023. The situation is changing (Germany, India, Mexico); water supply Arabia are worth regulating water management within the by 2030.
especially for EVs and power though. Green energy transition augmentation (Saudi Arabia); efficient emulating given that sector including setting water tariffs.
grids. Supply outlook appears will boost demand for silver in the water governance (Japan, Saudi Arabia); The adoption of NWS has resulted in The writer is Distinguished Fellow, The Energy and
somewhat uncertain due to years ahead. Electrification, waste water management (India, Saudi rainfall is erratic due to reduction of agricultural use of Resources Institute (TERI), and former Secretary, Ministry
ageing mines in major producing power grids, photovoltaics, 5G Arabia); watershed management global warming. non­renewable groundwater resources of Water Resources
countries even as greenfield and networks as also automotive and
brownfield projects are likely to home electronics industry will
slowdown in the next 2­3 years. drive industrial demand. The
New investments have to flow but metal has potential to rise 15­20
gestation period for mine
production is long. In 2024,
copper demand growth is set to
per cent in 2024 and outperform
the yellow metal. Financial inclusion, a great leap forward
outstrip supply growth. Market The writer is a policy commentator and
price has the potential to rise 8­10 commodities market specialist C Udayabhaskar opened by women and 67 per cent in Management System (PFMS). The
rural/semi­urban areas, PMJDY has RBI’s National Strategy for Financial

F
inancial literacy serves as the facilitated income­generating Inclusion (NSFI­2019­24) involves
cornerstone of economic, activities and increased ownership of implementing the Centre for
businessline. social, and psychological
security, acting as a catalyst for
financial assets among women. The
accounts have become pivotal in
Financial Literacy (CFL) scheme
across the country, aiming for one
financial inclusion. The Reserve Bank implementing people­centric CFL per 2­3 blocks.
TWENTY YEARS AGO TODAY. of India’s Financial Inclusion Index initiatives like Direct Benefits Currently, 1,600 CFLs operate
(FI Index) has shown notable Transfer (DBT). nationwide. Rural connectivity
January 2, 2004 improvement, reaching 60.1 in March Also, PMJDY offers life and challenges are being addressed
2023 compared with 56.4 in March accident coverage through schemes through the BharatNet project, a
Sensex gives solid start to new year 2022. A significant contributor to this like Pradhan Mantri Jeevan Jyoti UPI. Success linked to Jan Dhan scheme mega project by the government of
The New Year for stock market has begun on a high note, with the BSE Sensex progress is the Prime Minister’s Jan Yojana (PMJJBY) and Pradhan Mantri India. As many as 207,348 Gram
closing within sight of the 6000 mark and the NSE Nifty inching closer to 2000. Dhan Yojana (PMJDY), a pioneering Suraksha Bima Yojana (PMSBY), This initiative ensures that these Panchayats have been connected so
The main driver for the rise in stock prices was the reports of the 8.4 per cent initiative aimed at universal banking contributing to the inclusive growth banks are equipped with IT security, far under this initiative, laying 668,144
GDP growth in the second quarter, brokers said. Buying interest was also seen access by providing zero­balance bank of rural and underprivileged sections. fraud management, cyber security km of optical fibre cable, and
in several mid­cap and small cap companies on expectation of strong accounts to unbanked households. It The success of UPI and digital operations centres, and various other establishing 761,312
corporate performance for the quarter ended December. has helped bring over 50 crore people transactions is closely linked to the technological enhancements. fibre­to­the­home connections and
into the formal banking system. widespread adoption of PMJDY 104,675 Wi­Fi hotspots.
FCCB floatation norms tightened The number of bank accounts accounts. FINANCIAL LITERACY Infrastructure support is being
The Finance Ministry has made it tougher for corporates to access funds under PMJDY has grown substantially NABARD has been a pioneer in NABARD promotes financial extended to banking touchpoints.
through the foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCB) route. In its latest from 14.72 crore in March 2015 to driving technology implementation in inclusion through initiatives like The FI Index has shown a positive
revision, the Ministry has prescribed a reduction in the maximum spreads 50.99 crore by November 2023 (as on cooperative banks to bring them on a financial and digital literacy camps trend. With ongoing efforts, the index
(over six months LIBOR) for FCCB offerings by a uniform 50 basis points. November 30). par with commercial banks. It has conducted in remote areas. The is expected to continue its upward
About 34.63 crore RuPay cards have played a pivotal role in advancing both support extends to technologies like trajectory, reflecting increased
PIA flight lands in India after 2 years been issued to these accounts with technical and financial support to micro­ATMs, point of sale (POS) financial inclusion in rural areas.
The arrival of a Pakistan International Airlines Boeing­737 aircraft signified in­built accident insurance cover for cooperative banks for establishing systems, kiosk banking outlets, BHIM
more than the relaunch of direct air links between the two countries. Not only ₹2 lakh. robust Core Banking Solutions (CBS) app integration, Bharat Bill Payment The writer is Chief General Manager, NABARD,
were women presenting roses to the passengers, the Pakistani Deputy High With 55.5 per cent of accounts systems since 2012. System (BBPS), and Public Financial Mumbai. Views are personal
Commissioner and PIA’s Manager India were also present to welcome them.

BL TWO­WAY CROSSWORD 2346


EASY NOT SO EASY
ACROSS DOWN ACROSS DOWN
1. Industrial maker (12) 2. Very bad (5) 1. A maker of rum, at furnace for a change (12) 2. It is terrible but it is not illicit to be beheaded (5)
8. Influenced (8) 3. Male relations (6) 8. Is much moved, having put on side (8) 3. Family men who may have taken the pledge (6)
9. Matter floating on 4. Reluctant, disinclined (6) 9. It may be the dregs, but it comes out on top (4) 4. Is disinclined to a passage in the Bible (6)
surface (4) 5. A solo concert (7) 11. Make deep research into some Handel Vespers (5) 5. A telling sort of musical entertainment (7)
11. Dig deep (5) 6. Strong or formal protest (12) 12. Painting, in a hand's­breadth, shows it's a hard life (7) 6. There's a strong protest about monster crane (12)
12. Harsh, rigorous (7) 7. Cloth square for wiping 13. Island naval rating took the French back to (4) 7. The wipe that may come to blows (12)
13. Island in the Med (4) nose (12) 15. Over­production of liver first detected in food­channel (4) 10. There's space for the family doctor with a
15. Surfeit, over­supply (4) 10. Space between (3) 19. Part of university where Old King held part of the heart (3)
19. A seat of learning (7) 14. Think it to be (7) match (7) 14. Think it to be evil maybe with honeymaker
20. Additional (5) 16. Floor of sea, river (3) 20. Is more of a supernumerary (5) around (7)
22. Notion (4) 17. Italian town (6) 22. One almost defunct that may spring to mind (4) 16. A lying situation found in the garden (3)
23. Of a monk's life (8) 18. Give, in recognition of merit (6) 23. Cost one man is involved in for the brotherly life (8) 17. Of which two gentlemen possibly took an over (6)
24. Not supported by or 21. Someone or something 24. There's no charge for putting up with sculpture in the 18. Draughtsman turned up to get his just earnings (6)
attached to anything (4­8) gigantic (5) round (4­8) 21. Giant a bird put an end to (5)

SOLUTION: BL TWO­WAY CROSSWORD 2345


ACROSS 1. Abacus 8. Booze 9. Refugee 11. Knitters 12. Adapt 15. Lime 16. Van 17. Arch 19. Asian 21. Perilous 24. Runners 25. Crown 26. Fitter
DOWN 2. Bread 3. Crumpled 4. Seek 5. Abate 6. Pore 7. Less 10. Endeavour 12. Able 13. Bassinet 14. Chin 18. Flank 20. Agree 21. Pick 22. Root 23. Surf

CM
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OPINION 7
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VOLUME XXX NUMBER 222

UnderstandingGST
FIGURE 1. GST: GROSS COLLECTIONS VERSUS
NEW DELHI | TUESDAY, 2 JANUARY 2024 NET REVENUES (% OF GDP)

A difficult mandate GST gross collections (GSTN portal)


GST net revenue (Budgets)
7.0

revenueperformance
Pre-GST revenue (avg. 2012-17) 6.6
6.6
Sixteenth Finance Commission will have to do tough balancing 6.2
6.3 6.3 6.2

T
he government’s plans for the Sixteenth Finance Commission (SFC) are 6.0 5.9 5.8
taking shape, and contain a few surprises. Most recently, it has announced 5.7
that eminent economist Arvind Panagariya, who is at Columbia Contrary to belief, GST underperformed the old tax regime 5.6
5.4
5.7
5.4
University and had served as vice-chairman of the NITI Aayog shortly in its initial years but has now begun to exceed expectations, 5.2 5.0
after its formation, will take over the reins of the Finance Commission. The 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023-
announcement related to other members of the Commission is awaited. Professor six years after implementation 19 20 21 22 23 24 (H1)
Note: The comparison of net revenues under the GST and those under
Panagariya is, of course, intimately familiar with the political constraints on tech- the pre-GST regime should not be affected by refunds because both
ARVIND SUBRAMANIAN, JOSH FELMAN, VARUN AGARWAL & compare IGST collections and IGST settlements (the sets of numbers are from government budgets.
nocratic preferences that operate in New Delhi, including under the current dis-
THEERDHA SARA REJI amounts actually distributed as revenue to the Centre
pensation. Nevertheless, the job of chair of the Finance Commission requires a and the states). The red line in Figure 2 shows that the FIGURE 2. IGST COLLECTIONS AND IGST SETTLEMENT

T
delicate political sensibility in order to aid in crafting a compromise between the he goods and services tax (GST) has been one discrepancy between IGST collections and IGST set- (~ TRILLION) AND DIFFERENCE (% OF GDP)
various increasingly divergent political factions that are at play when it comes to of the major policy successes of recent years. It tlements is remarkably close to the gap between overall IGST collection (~ trn)
fiscal federalism. has stimulated the growth of a truly national collections and revenues shown in Figure 1. IGST settlement (Centre + states; ~ trn)
10 Difference (% of GDP; RHS) 1.0
The fact is that Finance Commissions have an increasingly fraught role to play market, replacing a welter of distorting taxes with a Putting the pieces together, it seems that the gap
single rational system. It has also provided a stable between collections and revenues reflects refunds paid 8 0.8
as federal tensions increase, between the Union and the state governments, but
source of revenue to both the Centre and states, to exporters to reimburse them for the IGST they paid.
also between states with differing calls on financial resources and political power. 6 0.6
notwithstanding some teething issues and discord We can hypothesise, but cannot be sure, that this IGST 6.0
Southern states, for example, are increasingly concerned about the size of the between the two levels of government. But how much relates mainly to imports used in production, rather 4 5.9 5.7 0.4
4.9 4.6 7.6 9.5
transfers to the governments of northern states. Other state governments are con- has the government actually received from the GST? than domestic goods purchased from other states. (We 2 4.6 7.8 0.2
6.2
cerned that they have fewer and fewer degrees of freedom for their own policy: The Is it really an improvement on the pre-GST regime? assume this because other data suggests that exports
The answers are surprising. often rely heavily on imported parts, notably in the 0 0.0
introduction of goods and services tax has taken away their ability to set sales taxes, 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023-
Nearly all of the analysis of GST, whether in report- case of iPhones.) In other words, the larger share of
while Union government welfare programmes are increasingly getting dominant. 19 20 21 22 23 24 (H1)
ing by journalists or research by economists, is based refunds is to compensate exporters for the IGST paid Note: IGST settlement to the states includes ad hoc settlements which
Regional leaders no doubt see this as an intrusion into their ability to create on the data from the GSTN portal. In both the portal on their imported inputs. were discontinued in October 2022
and sustain political space. It also leaves less space for policy experimentation and and the analysis, including some excellent recent aca- The large amount of refunds has important impli-
for the fulfilment of specific state-level aspirations. Thus, the broader context of demic studies, the GST figure reported for 2022-23 is cations for how one views GST performance. Going is to address the remaining major design flaws.
the SFC — which will be charged, after all, with determining the resources that ~18.1trillion,equivalentto6.6percentofgrossdomestic back to Figure 1, gross collection data gives the impres- Specifically, the rate cuts of 2018 and 2019 need to
will be available to these disgruntled state governments — is the preservation of a product or GDP. sion that the GST regime immediately overtook the be reversed, even if not fully, as part of a rationali-
But this figure actually measures GST collections, pre-GST average (the dotted line as calculated by sation of the overall rate structure. At the same time,
working federalism while also maintaining growth and development momentum
and collections are not the same as government rev- Professor S Mukherjee in a recent NIPFP paper), then the rate structure needs to be simplified, as the cur-
in India. The other surprise associated with the SFC is that the government has enue.That’sbecausesomeofthecollectionsarerefund- dipped during the pandemic period, and once again rent complexity, especially for the cesses, is probably
chosen to issue a very minimal set of instructions to the Commission in its Terms ed to taxpayers. We do not have the refunds data but surpassed the pre-GST regime in 2021-22. But bud- dragging down revenue collections and is certainly
of Reference, or ToR. Previous Finance Commissions were issued a fairly detailed we can calculate the difference between collections as getary revenue figures tell a very different story. They complicating enforcement.
set of subjects to review, from firewalling security spending to the protection of reportedbyGSTNandnetrevenuesafterrefundsaccru- reveal that GST revenue overtook the pre-GST regime The most natural change would be to move to a
the finances accruing to the third tier of government. The Fifteenth Finance ing to the government. Figure 1 suggests that in 2022- only in the current fiscal year, six years after the tax three-rate structure (recommended by the Revenue
23, the last full year of data, they amounted to no less was first implemented. NeutralRate(RNR)Committeein2015)withastandard
Commission’s ToR in fact wound up being somewhat controversial, given that
than~1.8trillion.Asaresult,governmentGSTrevenues If refunds make such a material difference to the rate of 18 per cent, a lower rate of say 10 per cent, and
they seemed to encourage the labelling of state welfare schemes “populist” as (both Centre and state, including the cess) amounted GST story, why have they been ignored? Perhaps a demerit rate of 40 per cent. And if GST compensation
opposed to those from the Union. to ~16.1 trillion, or 5.9 per cent of GDP, about 0.7 per because the GSTN does not publish the refunds data. is a thing of the past, the now-redundant cesses should
The ToR for the SFC, however, has very obviously shied away from any such cent of GDP less than what the headline number sug- As a result, we can only infer the numbers by com- be incorporated into the normal rate structure at the
controversy. In fact, the terms are remarkably and unusually bare-bones and gests. It also shows that last year’s difference was not a paring the gross collections reported by the GSTN top rate of 40 per cent. Not only would such a move
confine themselves to the required mandate for such commissions under the fluke. Ever since the GST was implemented, this gap with the revenues in the Central and state govern- simplify the system, it would also eliminate a major
has hovered around 0.6-0.7 per cent of GDP. ment Budgets and by comparing IGST collections distortion whereby a significant source of revenues
Constitution. Thus, even more discretion than normal will be granted to the chair- What are these refunds? GST refunds are different with settlements. has been walled off from the standard divisible pool
man of the SFC, who will have to decide which issues in particular will take up a from those on individual and corporate income taxes. IsthefactthatGSTrevenueshaveonlyrecentlysur- of taxes that provides resources for both the Centre
larger proportion of the body’s time. More than ever, the management of the SFC With income taxes, there are advance tax payments, passed pre-GST levels an indictment of the GST? Not and the states.
will be an exercise in national integration and not a simple technocratic or account- whichrequireexpost reconciliationandhencerefunds. atall.Revenueshavedeclinedfortworeasons.Thefirst Three conclusions follow: The GST did less well in
ing exercise. But in the case of GST, taxes are paid on actual rev- reason is that export refunds have become much the initial years than we have thought, but is now doing
enues, net of the taxes actually paid on inputs. So, in smoother, quicker, and fuller with the GST than they much better than we could have hoped for. It could
most cases there is no need for refunds. were under the previous regime. This is surely a good do even better if it were redesigned in the direction of
There is one major exception. In GST, exports are thing. Less welcome, however, there was a rate-cutting simplicity. And our appreciation and understanding

Accord and discord zero-rated,whichmeansthatexportersdon’tpaytaxes


on their output but are entitled to refunds on the taxes
they paid on their inputs. This constitutes the major
spree in the years leading up to the pandemic, which
reduced the weighted average collection rate from 14.4
per cent in May 2017 to 11.6 per cent in September 2019,
of this historic reform would improve if the refunds
data (and their composition) were to be published.

Ulfa pact is a step in the right direction chunkofrefundsundertheGST.(Recallthatzero-rated according to the Reserve Bank of India. Thewritersare,respectively,seniorfellow,PetersonInstitute

T
items are different from exempt items, which are not As a result, we now need to focus on further boost- forInternationalEconomics; principal,JHConsulting;and
he Memorandum of Settlement (MoS) signed by a faction of the United
taxedbutwhicharealsonotentitledtoinputtaxcredits). ing GST collections. At this point, there is little room programassociatesattheCenterforEffectiveGovernanceof
LiberationFrontofAssam(Ulfa),theCentre,andtheGovernmentofAssam At the same time, we can infer that refunds are to strengthen administration without risking over- IndianStates(CEGIS). AnkitChatriandDevashish
last week brings to a close 12 years of hard negotiations. The MoS, signed related to the Integrated GST (IGST) because we can zealousness and unnerving taxpayers; the real need DeshpandeofCEGISalsocontributedtothispiece
withtheUlfafactionledbyfoundingmemberArabindaRajkhowa,includes
disarmament and disbandment of Ulfa, a lump sum payment to Ulfa cadres, and
investment worth ~5,000 crore — including on an Indian Institute of Management,
a railway manufacturing plant, a sport and cultural complex, and road connectivity
projects. Though this agreement with a once powerful group, which terrorised the
state in the late 1980s in pursuit of a “sovereign Assam”, should be welcomed, its
A battle for the future of copyright
J
successwilldependonthegovernment’scommitmentinmobilisingtheseinvestments ust before 2023 ended, The New York Times sense that they learn from the pre-existing work of file a case against the user instead for plagiarising
quickly. At the same time, local circumstances and developments in the near neigh- (NYT) shocked the generative Artificial authors and artists to produce new content — whether stuff using the tool?
bourhood could impact the accord. Intelligence (GenAI) evangelists of Silicon Valley text, images, or videos. The problem with this line of argument is that if
by filing a detailed and lengthy lawsuit against OpenAI Obviously, content creators — authors and artists ChatGPT is merely a more sophisticated photocopier,
For one, the agreement has been signed with a faction that is considered less
and its primary partner, Microsoft, for copyright vio- — have not bought into this argument of GenAI com- the hype surrounding it is entirely unnecessary —as
powerful. The extremist faction, Ulfa (Independent), led by founder member Paresh lations. It accused OpenAI of unauthorised use of panies. A group of prominent authors — from John is the soaring valuation of OpenAI and others.
Baruah,whichsplitfromthegroupin2012andhasitsheadquartersacrosstheborder millions of the newspaper’s deeply reported articles Grisham to Michael Connelly and David Baldacci — The final argument offered is that, after all,
in Myanmar, is not a signatory. As such, with camps across the border in Myanmar, to train ChatGPT, the GenAI model promising to filed lawsuits against multiple GenAI companies. In humans also learn from works of authors and artists
disruptive threats from Ulfa (I) remain, not least because the latest accord contains upend entire industries, from pharmaceuticals to response, Google has offered a tool that allows pub- — and develop on them. But humans who reproduce
no commitment to protect the culture and identity of the Assamese people, a foun- movies — and especially publishing. lishers and content creators to agree exact copies of copyrighted materials would face law-
NYT pointed out that ChatGPT was to their content being available to suits — and therefore so should GenAI, which tries
dational demand that found mention in the famous Assam Accord of 1985. For making money using NYT articles and its search engine crawler — while to replicate and better human creativity and content
another, the progress on accords in the Northeast — famously known as the land of directly affecting the publishers rev- opting out of the content being used generation quality.
accords — has been decidedly mixed across regimes. A peace agreement with the enues without paying a penny. for training GenAI models. Of course, the NYT lawsuit will be fought bitterly.
Nagas, for instance, has been hanging fire since 2015, with the National Socialist The meticulously detailed NYT But these cases lacked the While NYT has hired one of the best law firms that
Council of Nagaland (Isak-Muivah) refusing to budge from its demand for a separate complaint contained hundreds of detailed evidence of plagiarism that has vast experience in tech and copyright cases to
flag and constitution for the Nagas. This intransigence has, in turn, stalled talks with ChatGPT outputs that were almost NYT has included. The egregious represent it, Microsoft has deep pockets too. It is
verbatim copies of NYT articles — examples of plagiarism included in unlikely it will give up on its OpenAI partnership to
anotherfactionofsevenNagagroups.Meanwhile,ethnicturmoilinformerlypeaceful without any attribution. The newspa- the NYTsuit sets it apart from earlier which it has already committed tens of billions of
Manipur remains a challenge. per said that it had reached out to lawsuits by content creators. NYT dollars. The way the judges decide will determine the
The other element of uncertainty is the civil war in Myanmar, which offers
insurgent groups opportunities for setting up safe havens and resource mobili-
OpenAI for a licensing deal but had
failed to reach any agreement, which
PROSAIC VIEW also points out that the weightage
assigned to NYT content while train-
economics of the two industries. If NYT wins, then
GenAI companies may be forced to pay for using good
sation. Indeed, hostilities between that country’s ethnic groups and the military is why it had to resort to the lawsuit. PROSENJIT DATTA ing was much higher than it was for content to their creators. This could change the out-
How the US courts decide on the other content. Meanwhile, a growing look of the publishing industry — at least the big play-
have been a setback in the context of peace in the Northeast. The two successful
NYT vs OpenAI and Microsoft case will have huge number of artists are suing Midjourney, a popular ers who create good content.
Northeast accords in the history of independent India have been with Mizoram ramifications, not just on the development of future GenAI image maker for plagiarism too. It would also lead to making the training and
(1986), which saw Mizo insurgents integrated into the democratic process, and GenAI models but also on the future revenue streams The NYT lawsuit has elicited a familiar response deployment of GenAI models more expensive. GenAI
with leaders of the Bodoland movement (2020). Both were the result of active of publishers. from the GenAI fraternity. The first line of defence models are not cheap to train and operate even other-
diplomatic outreach and close military cooperation with Bangladesh, Bhutan, In a piece titled “Generative AI’s Achilles Heel” offered on social media platforms by them was that wise — they need immense computing power and
and Myanmar, once safe havens for these groups, in helping curb insurgency. In (https://shorturl.at/bCIOW), this columnist had NYT had gamed the queries to make ChatGPT output consume humungous quantities of electricity and
pointed out that the GenAI models needed high- plagiarised copies. And that this could be easily rec- water. On the other hand, if the ruling is in favour of
fact, Bangladesh, under Sheikh Hasina, and the Myanmarese military were the
quality content and data to train on — in order to tified and NYT would have a hard time proving in Big Tech, it would be a huge disincentive for human
key to clamping down on these elements. perform the magic they do. The better the data, the court that ChatGPT (and others) would throw up content creators.
But the gains may be weakened with Myanmar’s civil war, which has seen Chin more effective the training, and consequently, the entire NYT articles without attribution. This, however, Existing copyright laws around the world had nev-
State inhabitants seek refuge in Mizoram, which has declined to repatriate them better the output. was easily disproved by multiple users who showed er anticipated the questions that would arise if any-
despite Naypyidaw’s request to New Delhi. This apart, growing lawlessness on the All GenAI products — OpenAI’s ChatGPT and how all GenAI models copied and plagiarised content thing like GenAI was ever developed. Judges are now
Sino-Myanmar border, where ethnic groups run drug- and gun-running rackets, has DALL-E; Google’s Bard and Gemini; Meta’s Llama; (from articles to images) without attribution and with- being forced to use age-old intellectual property laws
Anthropic’s Claude, and others — primarily scraped out much effort to create special prompts. for deciding precisely on these matters
revived the prospects for Indian insurgent groups setting up cross-border havens
the Internet for all the available data (including copy- The second defence offered was that ChatGPT
with impunity. Given the contemporary ethno-politics, the agreement with a minor righted data and content) and trained on them. They (and other GenAI models) were merely tools. Would The writer is former editor of Business Today and
faction of Ulfa could yield modest progress rather than big gains. argued that this fell under “fair use” and also that one sue a photocopier maker for photocopying copy- Businessworld, and founder of Prosaic View,
GenAI models are no different from humans in the right-protected books and images? Should one not an editorial consultancy

Sam the brave theIndianmilitarytoitsgreatest


triumph:ThevictoryoverPakistanin
December1971,whichledtothecreation
ofBangladesh.Thisaccountof
Manekshaw recounts how his Prime
Minister, Indira Gandhi, worried that
the highly popular chief might supplant
her and grab power in India.
head-on,revealingthatthedocumentof
surrender,whichhe,BrigadierPanthaki,
framedandhunginthearmychief’s
office,hadbeenpersonallydraftedby
book reveals that Manekshaw detested
umbrellas, declaring that a soldier
should not be averse to “a little water
down his spine”. He also looked down on
awardedtheMahavirChakrafor Manekshaw’slifehasbeenmeticulously Brigadier Panthaki’s account of the Manekshawandclearedbythedefence the wearing of dark glasses and, once he
exceptionalbravery.Thismayhave compiledbyoneofthefieldmarshal’s 1971 war rebuts a controversy by one of secretary,KBLalandthesecretarytothe became senior enough to get away with
somethingtodowithourgeneral aides-de-camp,BrigadierBehram Manekshaw’s ablest generals — Lt Gen J PrimeMinister,PNHaksar. it, adopted his own dress uniform, which
indifferencetohistory,orwithour Panthaki(retired),alongwithhiswifeand F R Jacob, who served during the 1971 BrigadierPanthakirevealsthat included a jaunty side cap and a grey
obsessionforsecrecyandourfailureto co-author,ZenobiaPanthaki. war as chief of staff, Eastern Command. Manekshawdictatedthecontentsover Mazri shirt instead of the army’s
declassifyinternalrecordslongafterthey Schooled and trained in the British In an thephoneto standard olive green.
BOOK REVIEW ceasedtohaveanyoperationalvalue. tradition, Manekshaw was a colourful autobiography that
Field Marshal Sam
Maneskhaw: The Man Eastern Brigadier Panthaki recounts an
Ironically, we know what Arthur soldier, who assiduously cultivated the he wrote in 2011, and His Times Commandand official trip to the UK in 1973, after
AJAI SHUKLA Wellesley, 1st Duke of Wellington, image of a lovable rogue. By virtue of entitled Surrender instructedthem Manekshaw had been appointed Field
Authors: Brigadier
remarked as Napoleon’s battered army living for 35 years after retiring as army at Dacca: Birth of a Behram Panthaki togetfour Marshal. At a dinner that he hosted for

D
espitehavingamilitarythathas limped off the Waterloo battlefield. The chief, Manekshaw recounted his story Nation, Jacob (Retired) and Zenobia originalssigned British officers, one of Manekshaw’s
foughtacrossAsiaandEurope Iron Duke said, “That was the nearest- to multiple audiences. A gifted essentially argued Panthaki bythePakistani former commanding officers walked up
duringthelasttwocenturies— run thing you ever saw in your life.” But raconteur, his account improved each that the official Publisher: Niyogi commander, to him and asked whether he could
firstfortheBritishcolonialenterpriseand independent India has no record of what time he addressed an audience — history was Books MajorGeneralAA address the Field Marshal as Sam.
then,since1947,forourownnational Lt Gen Ranjit Singh Dayal — the hero of whether military or civilian. Well into cockamamie and Pages: 216 KNiazi.Onecopy “Please do, Sir,” Manekshaw replied.
aims—therearepreciousfewaccountsof India’s capture of the Haji Pir Pass, one of his 90s, Manekshaw was leaving that he, Lt Gen Price: ~1,495 eachwasgivento “You used to only call me a ‘bloody fool’
thegenerals,admiralsandairmarshals the greatest military feats of the 1965 war audiences in splits of laughter and Jacob, actually army before. At one time I thought that was
wholedIndia’sarmiestovictory.Itishard — said or did at the moment of victory. nursing the feeling that the government masterminded that headquartersand my Christian name.”
tosaywhytherearesofewcredible All we know is that the capture of Haji Pir should have utilised his leadership campaign from Calcutta, including the EasternCommand,whilePakistanwould Manekshaw’s biography, coming as it
biographiesofIndianwarheroessuchas pass turned out to be a wasted effort as talents to a greater degree, rather than formulation of the Pakistan Army’s getonecopy.Thefourthcopywould does at a time of resurgent nationalism,
LieutenantGeneral(LtGen)Premindra Indian negotiators agreed to hand back putting him out to pasture in the remote surrender document. adorntheofficeofIndia’sarmychief. is likely to ride that wave. Bollywood has
SinghBhagat,thefirstIndianarmy the pass to Pakistan at the discussion hill station of Coonoor, in Tamil Nadu. Meanwhile,accordingtoJacob,the Brigadier Panthaki includes a short already produced a full-length feature
officertobeawardedtheVictoriaCross; table in Tashkent. This, however, overlooks the easternarmycommander(LtGenJagjit chapter entitled “Quirks and Humour”, film called SamBahadur, which is
orofColonelChewangRinchen,who Thisomissionisremediedsomewhat, interventionist civil-military SinghAurora)andManekshawhimself in which he writes about one of packing in the viewers. The book, which
twicewontheMahavirChakra,thefirst withthisaccountofthelifeofIndia’sfirst environment of that period when, in wereincompetentfigureheadswho Manekshaw’s most endearing qualities: has been produced in the “coffee table”
whenhewasagedjust17;orofLtGen fieldmarshal,SamjiHormusjiFramji one country after another, Bonapartist unfairlygarneredthecredit.Brigadier His exceptional sense of what makes a format, with lots of photographs, is likely
ZorawarChandBakshi,whowastwice Jamshedji(SHFJ)Manekshaw,wholed generals captured political power. BrigadierPanthakirebutsJacob’sclaims general stand out from the pack. The to be widely read.
Social Media Pakistan 0342-4938217
12 NEW DELHI
TUESDAY
JANUARY 02, 2024

Opinion

{ OUR TAKE }
E STA B L I S H E D I N 1 9 24
Siliguri corridor as
After ULFA, a bridge to East Asia
new beginning Geopolitically speaking,
India’s Neighbourhood
This is the only part of India that is cross-border trade, while its fertile
physically linked to four different coun- plains support a thriving agricultural
tries. These international borders and sector. Skilled artisans contribute to a
therefore, connections, also present an flourishing handicraft industry, while
The recent peace pact marks closure to a First and Act East opportunity for the people of this area. educational institutions cater to a tal-
separatist movement in Assam, which policies intersect here: Geopolitically speaking, this is where ent pool across diverse fields. Further- Siliguri is physically linked to four different countries WIKIMEDIA COMMONS
Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi’s more, the region boasts significant
claimed the lives of about 10,000 people It connects ASEAN to Neighbourhood First and Act East poli- hydroelectric potential from the Teesta India’s medical capacities are grow- development. The US-India Strategic
BIMSTEC and SAARC, cies intersect. It connects the river and connectivity advan- ing. Under the PM Modi government, Partnership Forum recently took a del-

T
he peace agreement signed between the Association of Southeast tages through Bagdogra air- the number of medical colleges egation of potential investors to Dar-
Centre and the pro-talks faction of the United
and, therefore, where Asian Nations to the Bay of port. increased from 387 before 2014 to 704 jeeling. It emphasised “strengths in the
the Indo-Pacific begins Bengal Initiative for Multi- Road and rail connectivity in 2023. During my tenure as foreign tea and tourism industry” and the
Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) last week Sectoral Technical and Eco- with this area to Bangladesh secretary, I had the privilege of working “plethora of unexplored opportunities

I
marks the closure of one of the most violent ndia is a vast and diverse country nomic Cooperation (BIM- has been augmented, as has under PM Modi’s leadership to deliver and untapped potential in fields of agri-
located within what has been STEC) and the South Asian Harsh the border and customs infra- Indian vaccines, pharmaceutical prod- culture, infrastructure, and renewable
insurgencies in the Northeast. The Arabinda described as the Indian subconti- Association for Regional structure. This has generated ucts and medical capacities to several energy”. Similarly, a high-level delega-
Rajkhowa faction, the largest ULFA faction, gave up Vardhan
nent. Within the physical Cooperation. This is, there- economic benefits through countries during Covid-19. I am confi- tion from the Bill and Melinda Gates
arms in 2011, but this pact puts a final seal on the expanse of this subcontinent, his- fore, in a sense, where the Shringla the movement of people and dent that there will be an increase in Foundation also visited Darjeeling
tory and politics, and sometimes, Indo-Pacific begins. goods. The India-Bangladesh demand for a whole spectrum of medi- recently to explore opportunities, col-
ceasefire. As per the agreement, ULFA will hand chance, have etched the political This part of the country is Friendship pipeline inaugu- cal services from India to Bangladesh, laborate with local stakeholders and
over their arms, disband within a month, vacate boundaries of our country. The same also in a unique position to benefit rated recently by PMs Narendra Modi Nepal and Bhutan. Educational and support tea garden workers in the
camps and provide the government with a list of factors have imparted special signifi- from PM Modi’s focus on transforming and Sheikh Hasina, which allows high- medical capacities often go together region.
cance to particular regions. One of the Northeast. The results of his efforts speed diesel to flow from Siliguri to and a strong potential for developing The cultural diversity of this Hima-
cadres. On its part, the State will withdraw cases these is a narrow strip of land that con- are evident, amongst other things, in Parbatipur in Bangladesh, is another Siliguri and Darjeeling as an interna- layan and sub-Himalayan area and its
against cadres and make efforts to rehabilitate them. nects the northeastern states to West the quantum improvement of infra- example of how the physical location tional health care hub also exists. The emphasis on education also produce
Hopefully, the Paresh Baruah faction, which has Bengal and beyond. structure — be it bridges, roads, rail- of this area is an asset. Airports Authority of India’s project for high-quality human resources. This
This region, a part of which is some- ways, air connectivity and waterways. Further improvement of links modernising Bagdogra airport will combination of human capital and
been holding out against talks, will join the peace times referred to as the Siliguri corri- They are visible in the increasing num- between India and Bangladesh, Nepal contribute to this process. An location, when linked to an enabling
process and end the separatist movement that dor, is not just a link between two parts ber of educational institutions, in the and Bhutan are certain. These connec- improved airport will mean that one of environment, investments and an eye
started soon after the Assam agitation in the late of India. It is a geographical and histori- growth of medical facilities, and in the tions will inevitably have to pass the greatest assets of the Dooars and for opportunity has the potential of
cal crossroads that abuts Nepal, Bhu- augmentation of social capital through through or near Siliguri and adjoining the Himalayas, with their natural converting this strategically significant
1970s and roiled the state for over three decades. The tan, Bangladesh, and China. It is also a improved socio-economic outcomes. Darjeeling and throw up the likelihood beauty, can generate a revitalisation Siliguri corridor into a national and
pact provides redress for a gamut of political and corridor that ultimately connects India The area is now in a position where of this area developing as a transport and expansion of its tourism industry international growth corridor. This
economic issues that ULFA had flagged when it to Southeast Asia and East Asia it can leverage the conjunction of economy hub and trans-shipment into new segments. The G20 events strategic corridor must be carefully
through Myanmar. national and international initiatives. point. It is well established that connec- that were held in Darjeeling confirmed monitored to not only ensure its devel-
launched an armed struggle against the Indian State Its military significance is also well Siliguri, for example, is where the tivity provides the basis for develop- the enormous potential that exists in opment to the fullest potential but also
that has left close to 10,000 people dead. known. In defence literature, its vulner- National Highways Authority of India’s ment and economic growth. Darjeeling the travel and tourism industries. to safeguard the security interest of the
The politics of ethnic nationalism has since ability due to its narrowness, has led it “Golden Quadrilateral” will connect to has always been a centre for education. Furthermore, with the completion nation. It is time we fully realise its
to being described as a “chicken’s the Asian Highway network and future Its schools and colleges have sterling of the Northeast Grid Natural Gas Pipe- potential.
transformed into identity-centric mobilisations that neck”. It is a heavily defended part of BIMSTEC land connectivity initiatives. reputations in India and the countries line Project from Siliguri to Gangtok, a
seek accommodation in electoral democracy and the country with a major, and expand- The Siliguri-Bagdogra area also adjoining it. This potential can be surge of industrialisation is poised to Harsh Vardhan Shringla is the former
State institutions and compete for land and ing, concentration of military force and presents a compelling economic prop- tapped to create an educational, train- reshape the region. This vital artery foreign secretary of India and chief
rapidly improving logistics and con- osition. Its strategic location near the ing, and skilling hub for students from promises a steady flow of energy, pow- coordinator of India’s G20 presidency.
resources. Militant groups have lost ground in the nectivity. Nepal and Bhutan borders fosters these countries. ering factories and igniting a wave of The views expressed are personal
region but the political and economic discontent
they represented continues to manifest in newer
forms while remaining hidden in the multiple fault
lines that shape politics in the region. The challenge
is ensuring that these fault lines stay dormant and do By targeting civilians, { JAYAKUMAR M } MISSION DIRECTOR AT ISRO

P
Israel lost the narrative
not come alive and wreak havoc, as happened in
Manipur recently. Matters such as the National
Register of Citizens and the Citizenship Amendment I am extremely happy celebrating the
Act are sensitive issues in Assam and politics centred here was a time when the Israel its Gaza military campaign. The use of such
grand success of the 60th launch of
on them is combustible. Hence, the government
needs to stay alert and reinforce the accords to keep
peace in the region. The Meitei-Kuki violence in
Manipur is a warning that the State cannot be
T Defence Forces (IDF) were a byword munitions in the dense urban environment of
for competence and professionalism Gaza is bound to result in widespread destruc-
that was always accompanied by a tion and it has. A report estimates that by
touch of elan. No more. Its most recent cam- December 4 already more than 60% of the
PSLV. What makes this mission more
interesting is the new technologies
that are getting demonstrated in

A
paign against Hamas in Gaza has revealed it buildings in north Gaza had been severely
complacent in a region where the ethnic power to be operating without any restraint. It has damaged, and across Gaza over 100,000 build- the POEM 3 experiment
physically erased the urban infrastructure of ings have been left in ruins. What is surprising
balance is central to the governance paradigm. the territory and has, by the latest count, and unprofessional is that almost half of the
The ULFA pact should also be seen as part of a killed over 20,000 people, most of them bombs being used by IDF are the so-called
continuum of Delhi engaging with separatist women. ‘dumb bombs’. These days there is abundant
The Israelis most certainly have the right to technology that can increase the accuracy of
movements and persuading them to join the
mainstream. Using innovative governance solutions,
including constitutional provisions to address
seek the elimination of the military capacity these unguided bombs. The IDF, as an
of Hamas, given the October 7 terror attacks advanced military, has the wherewithal, but it
that took the lives of 1,200 Israelis. Most mili- persists in using such weapons.
taries confronting similar objectives in urban A Financial Times report earlier this month
In Kashi, a confluence of
India’s cultural traditions
concerns about ethnic and linguistic identities, the environments have faced similar challenges. noted that Israel uses the US Mark 80 series of
Centre has been successful in containing violent But none in recent times have shown the general-purpose aerial bombs. These can be
separatist movements in Mizoram, Tripura, and ferocity of the IDF, which seems to be uncon- fitted with GPS and INS guidance kits to make
cerned about the death and destruction it is them accurate. The difference is crucial:
Assam. The next challenge is to provide closure in visiting upon ordinary Gazans. Perhaps, Unguided bombs have a CEP (circular error he Kashi Tamil Sangamam (KTS) 2022 tions in the most modern ghat, the NaMo
Nagaland, home to India’s oldest insurgency, where
a final pact has proved to be elusive, even though a
ceasefire has been in force since 1997.
many of the IDF seem to believe that all probable, a measure of accuracy) of approxi-
Gazans are complicit in the October 7 events mately 100 metres; with GPS guidance it can
and do not deserve any special consideration. be cut to five metres. The Israelis have also
Three recent incidents bring out the new used what is called the small diameter bomb,
IDF. The first was the tragic gunning down of which is laser-guided and pinpoint-accurate.
T reconnected the age-old interrelation Ghat, at Varanasi were like the 64 art forms of
between Rameswaram and Kashi, and ancient India. Cultural programmes were a
rejuvenated the ageless bonds between blend of both Tamil and Kashi traditions. The
Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh. KTS 2023 held replica of the Sengol, learn and enjoy Tamil
in Varanasi from December 17 to 30 was a san- language corner, silk saris of Kanchipuram
three Israeli hostages, Yotam Haim, Alon But as we noted earlier, nearly half the bombs gamam (confluence) of arts and architecture, and Banaras, handloom and handicraft prod-
Shamriz and Samer Al-Talalka. At the time were unguided and heavier ones weighing languages and literature, philosophies and ucts were the star attractions of the exhibi-

West Bengal warning they were unarmed, had no shirts on (to indi- 500 lbs-2000 lbs, which are “four times larger
cate they were not wired up with
bombs) and carried white flags. The
than the 500 lbs bombs that were
typically the largest used by allied
practices, shastras and sciences, tradition and tions. The braille versions of 40 classical Tamil
technology. texts were launched by the PM. Translations
The connections that exist between Kashi of Tirukkural in seven foreign languages were

for INDIA bloc only excuse for this is that it was a


nervous reaction by a soldier amid
combat worried that Hamas was
forces in the battle for the Iraqi city
of Mosul”.
Professional militaries do not
and Tamil Nadu are countless. If the stories released, which underlined the government’s
start from Maharshi Agastya, who, as directed commitment to spreading Tamil all over the
by Lord Vishwanath at Kashi, went down to world. Seven academic interactive sessions for
he war of words between the Congress and using this tactic of deception. deliberately target civilians. We Dravida Desha and wrote Tamil grammar a exchanging ideas and best practices by the

T TMC leaders in West Bengal exposes the


contradictions that define the INDIA bloc.
During the recent assembly elections, leaders had
The second instance is more
troublesome. An elderly Palestinian
Christian mother and her daughter
were shot in the compound of Gaza’s
only Catholic church, where a large
Manoj
Joshi
know, though, that in a major war,
especially fought in urban areas
there is always the risk of collateral
damage and casualties. That is why
the concept of proportionality is an
few thousand years ago, the latest connection delegates and their counterparts in Kashi
is IIT Madras’s Pravartak Technologies Foun- opened up new avenues for collaboration. In
dation partnering with the Vidya Shakti the PM’s words, “Kashi Tamil Sangamam has
scheme to provide science and math educa- become a highly useful and beneficial plat-
tion to rural and less-privileged stu- form for mutual interaction.”
said the alliance exists only at the national level and number of Christians had taken refuge at the important element in the laws of war. In fact, dents in and around Kashi. Most of the delegates from Tamil
each party is on its own in state polls. Now, at the start of the war. This was not a case of nerv- the International Committee of the Red Cross There are at least 450 Kashi Vish- Nadu didn’t know Hindi and most of
doorstep of the general elections, the mutual distrust ous reaction, but almost certainly deliberate. notes that the principle of proportionality pro- wanathar temples all over Tamil the Kashi residents didn’t know
The shooting was allegedly done by a sniper hibits attacks against military objectives that Nadu, which are the invigorators of Tamil. But that wasn’t in any way an
among leaders is coming to the fore. who usually stalks targets carefully before fir- are “expected to cause incidental loss of civil- the continuum of a spiritual and cul- impediment for people in communi-
Senior Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury’s ing. The IDF has denied that its forces were ian life, injury to civilians and damage to civil- tural tradition originating in Kashi. Chamu cating with, and understanding each
outburst against TMC chief Mamata Banerjee, for involved in the incident and suggested that ian objects... which would be excessive in rela- From the Vaigai river to the Ganga other because of the affinity as fellow
the victims may have been acting as spotters tion to the concrete and direct military advan- river, from Madurai Meenakshi to Krishna Bharatiyas, the oneness within every-
instance, is a reflection of the tension that plagues for Hamas. tage anticipated.” Bringing down apartment Kashi Vishalakshi, the innate one- Shastry one, knowledge of some common
the INDIA bloc’s alliance building in states where the The third instance was the killing in Octo- complexes and killing scores of people to kill ness in the cultural and civilisational vocabulary, common cultural under-
parties are bitter rivals. Banerjee had set the ball ber of a Reuters photojournalist Issam Abdal- a fugitive Hamas leader would certainly fit manifestations are boundless and standings, common moorings, and
lah in Lebanon, a kilometre or so from the this bill. timeless. The KTS is for experiencing that one- the absence of any type of divisive walls in
rolling on seat-sharing talks when she offered two Israeli border. Reuters investigated the inci- Modern wars have seen a flagrant violation ness. their minds made them to experience the
Lok Sabha seats for the Congress in West Bengal. dent and reviewed hours of video footage and of the Hague and Geneva Conventions, but While inaugurating the KTS on December immense love in each other’s hearts tran-
Chowdhury, one of the two Congress MPs from the hundreds of photos and interviews of officials, most militaries do their best to show them- 17, Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi said scending all barriers.
and experts and concluded that two tank selves as being ruled by moral and ethical the aatmiyataa in vividhataa (affinity in diver- Bharatiya languages are the primary vehi-
state, seems to read Banerjee’s offer as an attempt to shells were aimed at a group of journalists, rules. This is especially important in our sity) is unique and could not be seen in any cles of Bharatiya culture, arts, music,
corner his party. Banerjee’s claim that the TMC, not including Abdallah. Reuters gave the evidence information era where every move is recorded other civilisations. The linguistic, philosophic, thoughts, and the bonds of unity and harmony
the INDIA bloc, will be the face of the anti-BJP front to the IDF whose non-sequitur of a reaction by someone somewhere. By its over-the-top traditional, architectural, artistic, and cultural of the people of Bharat. All are intertwined
was that “we don’t target journalists”. response, the IDF has lost the war in terms of diversities of India are innumerable and with each other. The Kashi Tamil Sangamam
in West Bengal, shuts the door on the Congress since Another major issue is the indiscriminate the narrative. Its “just cause” response to the unparalleled. That is the bonding beauty of is not the confluence of two cultures as many
both parties are practically vying for the same votes. use of firepower, particularly aerial bombs in October 7 Hamas terror attack is being over- Bharat. The beauty of diversity can be sus- people think, but it is the confluence of differ-
This tension is inherent to the INDIA bloc as the whelmed by the physical suffering of the Pal- tained only by the strength of unity, and ent varieties of the cultural, philosophical,
regional parties have historically been anti-Congress THE USE OF AERIAL BOMBS estinians. hence, unity is paramount. Affinity among the artistic, linguistic and literary manifestations
The IDF of today probably does not care. Its people is the cementing factor of the unity of of the same inclusive culture, all-pervading
outfits. In states such as Telangana and Karnataka, IN THE DENSE URBAN attitude is set by Right-wing politicians who the nation. PM Modi said that while the con- and all-encompassing throughout Bharat.
the Congress has been successful against regional ENVIRONMENT OF GAZA do not see the Palestinians as their equals as cept of nation is political in other countries, it Ragas are many, Bhakti is one; forms are
parties. In contrast, in Tamil Nadu and Bihar, the IS BOUND TO RESULT IN human beings. Theirs is not to pick up the is spiritual and cultural in India, and this is many, truth is one; names are many, God is
broken pieces of Gaza, just as it was not the what has made our nation remain as one for one; systems are many, the purpose is one;
party has been forced to accept the role of a junior DESTRUCTION...WHAT IS responsibility of the Americans to heal the thousands of years. Knowing each other and languages are many, bhava (emotion) is one;
partner in the local alliance. The next challenge will UNPROFESSIONAL IS THAT wounds of Iraq and Afghanistan. But their sharing each other’s life experiences paths are many, the destination is one; regions
be Maharashtra, where the Shiv Sena and the ALMOST HALF OF THE conduct is worrying even the Americans strengthen the affinity. are many, Bharat is one. It is time to cast off all
whose secretary of defence has warned that Seven batches of delegates from Tamil divisive thought processes and work for “Oru
Nationalist Congress Party, though weakened by BOMBS BEING USED BY Israel risked “strategic defeat” in Gaza. Nadu were named after the seven most sacred Bharatam, Unnata Bharatam” (One India,
major splits, are unlikely to let the Congress dictate ISRAEL DEFENCE FORCES rivers of India — Ganga, Yamuna, Godavari, Great India).
the terms in seat-sharing. INDIA’s resolve to forge a ARE THE SO-CALLED Manoj Joshi is a distinguished fellow, Observer Saraswati, Narmada, Sindhu and Kaveri— that
Research Foundation, New Delhi. symbolise the civilisational unity and cultural Chamu Krishna Shastry is chairman, Bharatiya
common BJP front will be tested in the coming days. ‘DUMB BOMBS’ The views expressed are personal harmony of Bharat. The 64 stalls and exhibi- Bhasha Samiti. The views expressed are personal

R. N. I. No. 503/1957 ● Postal Reg. No. DL(ND)-11/6058/2018-19-20 ‘Licensed to post without prepayment’ LICENCE No. U(C)-113/2006-08, AIR SURCHARGE: Raipur and beyond by Rail or Road - Re 5/-, Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Coimbatore, Chennai, Cochin, Goa, Hyderabad, Khajuraho, Mumbai, Trivandrum, Visakhapatnam, Vijayawada and beyond by Rail or Road - Rs. 10/-;

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New DelhI VIEWS LIVEMINT.COM

OUR VIEW THEIR VIEW


ISTOCKPHOTO

Solow’s insights hold invaluable


lessons for the Indian economy
The late economist’s voluminous body of work offers the country five lessons of special significance

lating the findings to actionable policy interactions and the resulting economic
instruments needs an explicit push. behaviour.
Second, returning to his own seminal Fourth, Solow emphasizes how edu-
work on the theory of growth after 60 cation is not the solution to every prob-
years, Solow asked: “Why did we lem, but an educated population is still
assume that there is perfect competi- necessary for societies to progress. “We
tion and that factors are paid their per- tend to measure education by input, not
fect-competition marginal products? output. We count how many years peo-
How can we explain a sustained and sig- ple have been in school…. [I]nstead of
M. SureSh BaBu nificant divergence between non-farm worrying so much about quantities of
is a professor of economics at IIT Madras. sector productivity and real wages? education, we ought to be thinking
Despite some quibbles about the meas- about the content.” His remarks are of
urement of the two, there is no doubt paramount importance for India to tap
that they have diverged. But that goes its demographic dividend and fulfil the

Expand India’s economy


against everything we thought we aspirations of its youth. The content of
knew!” Solow’s work on the implica- education needs to be in tune with the

R
obert M. Solow, MIT Institute tions of imperfect competition on the changing times, especially in an era in
professor emeritus, a path-break- macroeconomy paved the way for a which automation and demand for high
ing economist whose work influ- comprehensive analysis of inequality. It skill labour is increasing. The stock of

but not as an end in itself enced generations of economists, died


on 21 December, aged 99. Though pop-
ularly known for his characterization of
technology and its role in economic
led to a ‘marriage’ between a standard
neoclassical analysis of how income
shares of capital and labour are deter-
mined and the distribution of rents,
human capital could be the main driver
of growth for India, as it contributes to
the productivity of both labour and cap-
ital and enhances technological innova-
growth, Solow’s profound influence on which is determined partly by eco- tion. However, a prerequisite for this is
research in economics spanned numer- nomic and mostly by political factors. ensuring equitable and quality educa-
Our robust macro data hides a disquieting micro story that should be addressed in 2024. ous sets of issues both in macro and Given an intensification of monopoly tion for the youth.
microeconomics. Engaged teaching power in the Indian economy, the A fifth insight from Solow’s life and
The government and central bank ought to ensure that faster growth is more equitable too and collegial collaboration as an ethos implications of distribution for inequal- research is the value of intellectual and
in academia owes much to him. Several ity assume significance, as it impacts professional commitment to students
themes that Solow pioneered during our demand and growth trajectories. through active mentorship. In his own
his 74-year association with the MIT’s Third, Solow emphasized the need to words: “You only have really good ideas

I
n the last week of 2023, India’s share in per-capita income basis, India ranks 139th by department of economics are impor- study economic history. Studying this once in a while. I would rather teach a
global market capitalization hit a record GDP (nominal) and 127th by GDP (PPP). And tant for India’s economic policy. would help economists understand the really bright student than write a mildly
First, Solow’s 1956 paper, ‘A Contri- social and institutional contexts in interesting paper.” According to MIT
3.8%, according to Bloomberg data, con- even as the proportion of Indians living below bution to the Theory of Economic which economic models work or fail to News: “When it came to teaching under-
solidating the country’s position as the fifth the poverty line has fallen dramatically, India is Growth,’ modelled how increases in work. In his 1985 paper titled ‘Economic graduates, Solow would annually tear
biggest equity market, just behind Hong still home to an unconscionably large—per- population and capital investment will History and Economics,’ he put this ele- up his old lecture notes, and force him-
Kong. In nominal terms, India’s GDP is also haps the largest globally—number of people not sustain economic growth. Rather, it gantly: “I suspect that the attempt to self to re-examine how he was present-
the world’s fifth largest (by purchasing power who barely meet their subsistence needs. In is technological progress, considered construct economics as an axiomati- ing material to them. As a graduate
broadly, that largely creates growth. If cally based hard science is doomed to advisor, Solow would put in long hours
parity, or PPP, it is the third largest). According terms of social development indicators, access India is to achieve higher per-capita fail…. Unfortunately, however, econom- providing detailed feedback to students
to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to health, education, sanitation, potable water, income by 2047, then substantial ics is a social science…. Moreover, all about their research papers.” Solow’s
India will move into fourth place in 2025 and infant and female mortality, law and order, emphasis must be placed on accelerat- narrowly economic activity is embed- decades-long interaction with Paul
reach the third spot in 2027, with a projected etc, we rank below many of our peers among ing productivity. This matters on three ded in a web of social institutions, cus- Samuelson also provides an example of
economy of $5.4 trillion. Some might see this emerging markets. While social indicators in counts: (a) It is the most important way toms, beliefs, and attitudes. Concrete how important it is to engage with col-
to enhance welfare, (b) it is the only pos- outcomes are indubitably affected by leagues to improve scholarship and
parallel between GDP and stock markets as some parts of the country are comparable to sible generator of growth once labour these background factors, some of research. A commitment to students
further vindication of the IMF’s “star per- those in advanced countries, across large and capital factor accumulation hits a which change slowly and gradually, and teaching, as also to open-minded
former” tag. Indeed, we have seen a reiteration swathes of our landmass, they are worse than plateau; and (c) it is vital for maintaining others erratically.” In the Indian con- discussions in a collegial atmosphere,
of faith in the Indian economy by domestic and in sub-Saharan Africa. Sadly, the benefits of and enhancing international competi- text, a thorough understanding of eco- was among the fine examples he set that
overseas investors, both of whom have been economic growth and social development have tiveness. Though India has a long tradi- nomic history is needed to grasp differ- Indian academia must learn from.
tion of research on productivity, trans- ent kinds of social arrangements, their These are the author’s personal views.
pouring money into our capital markets. not been evenly distributed across the country.
Although it seems as if stock indices have run Regional inequalities have widened the post-
ahead of fundamentals at present, they must reform decades, even as income inequalities
ultimately reflect the underlying strength or have sharpened. Bull markets are likely to
weakness of the Indian economy in the context aggravate this trend. Despite reports of rising
of its future potential. Our fifth position in numbers investing in stocks and a dramatic
global GDP league tables as well as the market increase in demat folios and mutual fund www.livemint.com
New Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Kolkata, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, Chandigarh*, Pune* Thursday, January 2, 2014 Vol.8 No.2 `4.00 in Delhi­NCR/`5.00 outside Delhi­NCR 24 PAGES

value of all listed shares is a cause for celebra- holdings, only a small fraction of our total pop- NATION: Ashutosh Varshney on
Indian politics >7
INDUSTRY: Auto makers end 2013 on weak
note as December sales skid >3

tion. It is a measure of how far we have come ulation is in this game and hence in a position CONTENT PARTNER
ECONOMY: The new Indian consumer
economy >4
MARKETS: Bombay Bullion Association eyes
5% stake in MCX >8

from the times when India’s plodding rate of to benefit from equity gains. According to the SENSEX 21,140.48 æ 30.20

STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION
NIFTY 6,301.65 æ 2.35 DOLLAR `61.91 æ `0.11 EURO `85.06 æ `0.22

MANVENDER VASHIST/PTI
GOLD `29,630 Æ `100

2014: Banking QUICK EDIT


OIL $110.80 ®

India is now in India will Beyond

growth in the pre-reform period was referred chief of the National Stock Exchange, as of last one nation,
change—body freebies
and soul
mint ESSAY
A rvind Kejriwal has
begun to deliver on
his promise to shower
freebies. He has cut the
True equity starts with
to derisively as “the Hindu rate of growth.” October, only 17% of all Indian households
price of electricity as well
B Y T AMAL B ANDYOPADHYAY as offered free water to

one grid
[email protected] residents of New Delhi

ensuring that everyone has


························· up to a certain minimum

T o use a cliché, there will be a


tectonic shift in the Indian
banking landscape in 2014. Both
level of consumption.
These policies will not
benefit the really poor
the body and the soul of the `80 and will blow a neat hole
trillion banking industry will in the finances of the
South joins national

Look a little deeper, however, and it is equally were invested in stocks.


changes in the Electricity Act of change. A set of new banks will Delhi state government.
power grid, completing 2003 to implement this propos-
al.
get the regulator’s approval,
some foreign banks operating in
Subsidies are always
politically attractive. But
integration of India into Of the five regional grids in India may decide in favour of lo- here is a cautionary tale
seamless network for the country—northern, south- cal incorporation to get near-na- for the Aam Aadmi Party.

access to the most basic of


ern, eastern, north-eastern and tional treatment, and new norms Over the past decade, the
delivering electricity western—only the southern for early recognition of financial two Manmohan Singh
one had not been connected to distress and faster resolution and governments have spent
B Y U TPAL B HASKAR, the national grid. recovery will help curb rising a cumulative `11 trillion

clear that we have no space for complacency. Widening disparities in income and wealth
A MRIT R AJ & The integration was achieved bad assets and improve the on subsidies, a large
A RUNDHATI R AMANATHAN through the commissioning health of the banking system. chunk of which are
························· of the Raichur-Solapur 765 As an offshoot, Indian firms, captured by large farmers
NEW DELHI/CHENNAI
kilovolt (kV) single-circuit especially those operating in the (the fertilizer subsidy)

I n a potential game-chang-
er, South India has joined
the national electricity grid,
transmission line by state-
owned Power Grid Corp. of
India Ltd.
infrastructure space and adding
to the growing pile of bad loans
at banks, will become more ag-
and the middle class (fuel
subsidies).
India—and its poor—

needs.
completing the integration of “This line of 208 circuit kilo- gressive in selling assets to would have been far
the entire country into one metres (ckm) and 765/400 kV shrink debt. In 2013, close to a better off if even half that

For all the progress made in our 75-plus years are never good news in an electoral democracy.
seamless network for deliver- substations at Raichur and dozen Indian companies either money had been spent
ing power to consumers. Sholapur has been commis- sold or made their intention on asset creation: roads,
Not only will it provide relief sioned five months ahead of its clear to sell assets, to pare at schools, hospitals,
to the power-short southern contractual schedule, i.e. 31 least `3.5 trillion worth of debt, irrigation projects, etc.
region, it will also improve May 2014 at a cost of approxi- Trust vote today: Chief minister Arvind Kejriwal is greeted by Congress as rising interest costs and di- Kejriwal means well.
transmission and facilitate bet- mately `815 crore,” the power MLAs Yusuf Haroon and Arvinder Singh Lovely after the oath­taking minishing margins took their He should use tax
ter management of demand, ministry said on Wednesday in ceremony in the Delhi legislative assembly on Wednesday. Delhi’s AAP toll on growth. This trend will revenues to build rather
ensuring the stability of the a statement. government faces a crucial test with the BJP signalling it will vote than to subsidize.
electricity grid. “With this interconnection, against a motion of confidence on Thursday. See page 3 TURN TO PAGE 24®

as an independent nation—remember former Especially not when general elections are less
Easier availability of power the Indian power system has
could also lead to lower tariffs entered into a new era and be-
in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, come one of the largest operat-
Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Pu-
ducherry.
ing synchronous grids in the
world with about 232 GW (gi-
India cancels MIXED PICTURE
Together with a proposal to
separate the so-called carriage-
gawatts) of installed power
generation capacity,” the state- AgustaWestland Annual survey shows industrial
and-content operations of ex- ment said.
chopper deal
isting power distribution com- Experts welcomed the move.
investment contracted in 2011­12
British Prime Minister Winston Churchill’s than six months away. Both the government
panies, the move has the po- Investments in transmission
tential to bring about a struc- and distribution have not been B Y A MAN M ALIK

MI K K I K E N DA L L
tural transformation of the commensurate with the invest- [email protected]
power sector. ments made in generation. ························· B Y K IRTHI V . R AO INDUSTRIAL STATISTICS
NEW DELHI
The Press Trust of India re- “Southern region is a region [email protected] Key data from the provisional Annual Survey of Industries.
ported on Wednesday that the
power ministry will introduce a
starved of electricity. This will
provide a huge benefit as it will I ndia on Wednesday can-
celled a controversial `3,600
·························
NEW DELHI
Gross capital
2011-12 (Provisional) in R billion

4,072
Growth since 2010-11

I
cabinet note on the carriage- help in the reduction of elec- crore defence deal to buy 12 ndustrial investment contract- -9%
formation
and-content proposal in a tricity cost which are high due helicopters from AgustaWest- ed 9% in 2011-12, provisional

scathing comment, “India is no more a single and central bank (to a lesser extent) have their
Net fixed 2,034 25%
month’s time. This will enable to the transmission con- land International Ltd (AWL) industries data released by the investment
people and companies in India straint,” said Shubhranshu Pat- following allegations that the statistics ministry on Tuesday Net value 8,363 19%
to buy electricity from a power naik, senior director, consult- company bribed Indian offi- showed. added
company of their choice and ing, energy and resources, cials to secure the deal. However, the provisional An- Interest paid 1,206 37%
have it supplied to them by the Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu In- The choppers were to have nual Survey of Industries data
distribution network that serv- dia Pvt. Ltd, an audit and con- been deployed in the commu- showed that most of this decline 3% 5%
ices the neighbourhood in sultancy firm. “The immediate nication squadron of the Indi- was accounted for by the fall in
Number of factories
which they live. benefit will be the availability an Air Force, which ferries the working capital investment, be- Workers employed
Mint had reported on 27 of the power traded on the ex- president, prime minister and cause net fixed capital invest- 217,554 10,438,522

country than the equator”—we still have a long task cut out for them. They must ensure that
September about proposed changes.” other important ministers. ment rebounded, growing 25%
According to the Central The defence ministry said in from a 0.8% decline in 2010-11.
Electricity Authority, India’s a statement that the deal, The Annual Survey of Indus- Source: Annual Survey of Industries, January 2014
SARVESH SHARMA/MINT
apex power sector planning signed on 8 February 2010, was tries is the principal source of in-
body, Puducherry, Karnataka being cancelled “on the dustrial statistics and covers all showed the economy had grown “The rate of interest was be-
and Kerala had a peak power grounds of breach of pre-con- factories employing 10 or more 6.2%, expanding much slower coming higher, so there was an
shortage of 8.1%, 5.8% and tract integrity pact and the workers using power and those than the 9% level of the previous incentive to lower stocks,” said
5.5% respectively in August. agreement by AWL”. employing 20 or more workers year, mainly due to a sharp fall in Pulapre Balakrishnan, director of
Debasish Mishra, a senior di- Integrity pacts are inserted without using power. industrial and agricultural sector the Thiruvananthapuram-based

way to go. So, even as we overtake our former faster growth is also more equitable. Our strong
rector at the same firm, added: into contracts to help prevent According to the survey, in- growth. Centre for Development Studies.
“It is an excellent develop- corruption in deals. vestment in raw materials, half- Experts said the decline in Interest paid by factories in-
ment, which will help in inter- The chopper deal became finished and finished goods, or working capital investment, even creased 20% in 2010-11 and 37%
regional transfer of power from controversial after investiga- what is called physical working as fixed investment picked up, in 2011-12, the data showed.
surplus West and East to pow- tions in Italy revealed that top capital investment, declined 61% could be due to the balancing of Pronab Sen, chairman of the
er-deficit South.” officials of the company may in 2011-12 after growing by 73% inventory levels after high invest- National Statistical Commis-
A case in point being Tamil have paid Indian government and 162% in the two previous ments in stocks in the previous sion , said: “Normally, inventory
Nadu, where according to officials and Indian Air Force years. years. levels follow a cyclical pattern

colonial master in economic terms, the dawn of macro data hides a disquieting micro story that
Tamil Nadu Generation and (IAF) officers, including Total investment declined at a The cost of holding invento- and this was a period of uncer-
Distribution Corp. Ltd, indus- former air chief S.P. Tyagi, time when factory profits grew ries rose as interest rates in- tainty.”
trial units and commercial es- bribes to win the deal. Tyagi 17% . creased after February 2010 with “This kind of a draw-down is
tablishments have 20% power has denied the charges. Agus- This is in line with the revised the winding down of monetary usually in a situation where de-
Mint is also available for R8 with national income data released by expansion after the 2008-09 fi-
Hindustan Times in Delhi-NCR only
TURN TO PAGE 2® TURN TO PAGE 2® the ministry in January that nancial crisis, experts added. TURN TO PAGE 2®

2024 is a good time for a reality check. On a must be addressed in 2024.

MY VIEW | MUSING MACRO

The 16th Finance Commission must fund the third tier


take a pause! Yes, India is a union of states, in its tax revenue raising capacity, can it influence. As chairman of the PM’s Advisory must focus, and where it can make a historic
AJIT RANADE and the Union government can create, alter, access banks and bond investors? The short Council, Bibek Debroy has written in these contribution, is strengthening the third tier.
divide and even extinguish states. The states answer is no. If it is already indebted to the pages, “There was a history, legacy, (and a) Even after 30 years of Panchayati Raj legisla-
of India did not pre-exist and nor did they Union government (most states are), then it centralization mindset and shortage syn- tion, and even with increased demand for
come together voluntarily to form a federa- needs permission to borrow. And accessing drome behind the Seventh Schedule... (and governance and accountability from local
tion. In that sense, they are the creation of foreign banks or bond investors is ruled out. hence) it deserves independent scrutiny.” bodies, they remain helplessly hobbled,

T
he Finance Commission must be set up the Centre and have very limited sover- The third asymmetry arises from residu- Under Arvind Panagariya, the 16th either without funds and functionaries or at
every five years by the President of eignty. But for a country with a sixth of the ary powers as per the Con- Finance Commission has the mercy of their state governments. The
India, as per Article 280 of the Consti- world’s population, where several individual stitution. Even in the con- its work cut out. It has to recommendations of most state finance
tution. The main purpose of this statutory states are larger than most countries of the current list of the Seventh It should find an address these structural commissions are routinely flouted or
body is to recommend the split of net tax rev- world, the fiscal autonomy of these sub-sov- Schedule, the Union gov- imbalances. Also, it has to ignored. How can a city council or a pancha-
enues. Its recommendations are almost ereign entities is a very important issue. ernment has a greater say. explicit way to contend with increased yat have greater say in how the local school
always accepted by the Union government. The first asymmetry relates to revenue And what is left unsaid or funding needs for the pro- system is run? Or how can garbage collection
The commission is supposed to use its judge- raising capacity and expenditure obliga- unspecified is automati-
carve out funds vision of national level pub- improve? Can a local government levy a

is a Pune-based economist.
ment regarding vertical and horizontal equity
while deciding a fair split. The former refers
tions. Two-thirds of all government
expenses for the delivery of basic public ser-
cally prohibited to the
state’s legislative, execu-
for local bodies lic goods, such as meeting
net-zero emission targets.
small property tax on an airport project in its
precincts? The 16th Finance Commission
to the split between the Union and states, and
the latter across all states. There is no mathe-
vices are the responsibility of the local or
state government. This excludes develop-
tive or fiscal domain. All
amendments to the Sev-
that India needs Some states contribute dis-
proportionately to forest
must find a way to carve out resources from
the Consolidated Fund of India. For starters,
matical formula, but even then, every com- ment or capital expenditures. But only one- enth Schedule since the to empower cover and biodiversity. local bodies together must have access to at
mission has tried to be as fair and transparent third of the revenue-raising capabilities are 1950s have led to increas- How can they be compen- least 2% of GDP annually, as against 28% kept
as possible. Since the first Finance Commis- at the state level. Local governments, i.e. the ing centralization, and financially sated, even as their own for the Union government alone. Let this
sion set up in 1951, the vertical split has gone third tier below the state, have negligible creeping expansion of the revenue-raising capacity transfer be unconditional, and bypass both
from 10% of the divisible pool for states to taxing powers. This is a structural asymme- role of the Union govern- remains constrained? This the Centre and state machinery. Successive
42% in the 14th, before retreating to 41% in try. To the extent that the finance commis- ment. Subjects such as agriculture, land, calls for a bigger central pool. But widening Finance Commissions since the 11th have
the 15th Finance Commission. sion’s task is a ‘gap filling exercise’ of funding labour, employment and health, which were inter-state disparities call for more grants- referred to local bodies. The 13th did a lucid
While 42% might seem generous, it is not the deficit at the state level, it becomes to be exclusively in the states’ domain, are in-aid. What conditionality will the Com- analysis of the issue. Its recommendations
as much if you note the basic asymmetries in imperative that the asymmetry be counter- increasingly dominated by national schemes mission attach? Is more aid to backward include amending Articles 280 and 243-I,
India’s federal structure. Purists who are vailed by a larger vertical split to the states. such as an employment guarantee, health states taking away from the welfare spend- which is eminently doable. The 16th Finance
peeved by my use of the word ‘federal,’ since The second asymmetry relates to states’ insurance and direct benefits. Not to forget ing needs of advanced states? Commission should take this to its logical
the word is absent in the Constitution, might autonomy in raising debt. If a state falls short the Pay Commissions and similar conduits of A key area where the new Commission conclusion and empower the third tier.

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LIVEMINT.COM VIEWS TuesDay, 2 JaNuary 2024
New Delhi 13

MY VIEW | GeNeRaL DISequILIBRIuM M I N T C U R AT O R

Four elections and a rate cut: The This educational idea can take
on a youth mental health crisis
world is in for an exciting 2024 A new academic focus in America on the problem holds promise

Known unknowns and events in the political as well as economic arenas could combine in multiple ways to yield surprises

ISTOCKPHOTO

LISA JARVIS
is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering
biotech, health care and the pharmaceutical
industry.
RAJRISHI SINGHAL
is a senior journalist and author of the
forthcoming book ‘Slip, Stitch and Stumble’.
@rajrishisinghal

L
ast year saw a stream of dismal head-
lines about kids’ mental health. Chil-
dren and teens in the US are strug-

T
his column appears on the second gling with higher levels of depression and There aren’t enough mental healthcare
working day of the new year, and, anxiety. Rates of suicides and eating disor- professionals for teens and kids ISTOCKPHOTO
as is customary, it tries to discern the ders are on the rise. Now there’s reason to
path ahead. Amid the known-un- be hopeful: An experiment in Oregon resources, freeing up people with
knowns, some developments look could point the way to a novel solution. advanced degrees to focus on those who
almost certain. It is fair to say that the Much of the last two years was spent try- need them most.
world will continue to be influenced by geopoliti- ing to analyse the root cause of alarming There’s good reason to believe the Ore-
cal shifts and conflicts in the first quarter of 2024. statistics rather than discussing what to do gon experiment will work. The UK pio-
The war in Ukraine and humanitarian crisis in the about them, though there has been some neered a highly successful ‘low intensity’
Levant look like spilling over to the new year and positive change. New guidelines recom- mental health workforce as part of a 2008
casting a shadow over the world economy. The US mending widespread screening for child- plan to expand access to services, which
economy might finally buck a recession, the hood anxiety and depression were a good involved establishing a new type of pro-
Eurozone will continue its search for the elusive start, and so was the Biden administration’s vider called a “Psychological Well-being
growth sauce and global central banks might investment in helping connect families to Practitioner,” who offers brief interven-
finally loosen their hold on monetary policy. This behavioural and health services. Several tions to struggling adults. Anyone who
much seems a done deal. But it will be domestic states have expanded training for educa- doesn’t benefit is referred to more inten-
politics that will hold the key to global economic tors and improved access to telehealth. sive therapy. An analysis found that the
prospects in 2024. These cannot completely address the program had a major impact on lowering
The world is likely to witness over 50 national fundamental problem: The number of kids depression and anxiety levels in the UK.
elections during the year, of which four will be who need help exceeds the number of The model is sound, but the experiment
decidedly critical for the global economy: the US, available mental health providers. The in Oregon has much to prove. McLaughlin
Russia, the EU and India. The US presidential paediatric mental health workforce hasn’t will need to produce robust data that her
election will be a closely followed political event, expanded despite ever-growing demand. students are having a positive impact on
what with Donald Trump unrelenting in his come- A 2019 study that used US National Survey children—but that evidence shouldn’t take
back bid despite formidable hurdles erected by of Children’s Health data found that about long to collect. The first cohort heads into
the nation’s legal and regulatory institutions; half of the kids with a mental health disor- classrooms next fall. McLaughlin says any-
opinion polls show him as the most popular der did not receive treatment. The shortfall one who interacts with a Ballmer student
choice. If he somehow manages to sidestep his is likely even worse now. will be given an opportunity to offer feed-
legal challenges and win, some economic out- “We need to try something new—some- back on the experience, allowing a quick
comes are predictable: climate denial, withdrawal thing that’s radically different than what assessment on whether a child or family
from multilateral institutions and plurilateral That brings us to the Indian general elections largely somnolent corporate capex, tardy foreign we’ve been doing, which is clearly not was satisfied with their experience and in
agreements, rattling of trade sabres, anti-immi- which are likely to be held in either April or May. In direct investment inflows, and the Indian market’s working,” child clinical psychologist Katie time, whether the services provided actu-
gration laws, and a greater degree of protection- the run-up to the elections, there is likely to be a stratospheric valuations when compared with McLaughlin told me. ally improve kids’ mental health.
ism. If, on the other hand, Trump is eventually shift in government expenditure patterns at both other emerging markets. McLaughlin recently left Harvard to be The Ballmer Institute is essentially cre-
barred from contesting on legal grounds, it will the Centre and states, with a pivot from capital One economic factor, for a change, is likely to the executive director of the Ballmer Insti- ating a new profession, which entails some
then be more of an open contest, with the US expenditure to consumption. Competition among influence domestic politics, especially in some tute for Children’s Behavioral Health, practical challenges. The first hurdle was
economy’s trajectory between now and November political parties to offer welfare benefits is countries that have national elections scheduled in launched at the University of Oregon in cleared in late 2022, when the state higher
playing a large role. It is also possible for part of the expected to intensify, with the Bharatiya Janata 2024: the timing of rate cuts by their central banks. 2022 aiming to expand the workforce by education commission approved the pro-
campaign to spill into the streets. Party government in New Delhi likely to expand Wall Street expects the US Federal Reserve to start creating a new type of mental health pro- gram. The next is working with US policy-
In Russia, Vladimir Putin’s re-election as presi- and deepen its portfolio of social-sector schemes. cutting rates from June 2024 onwards, after vider, an endeavour made possible by a makers to establish standards for becom-
dent seems like a foregone conclusion, even Multiple forecasts, including from the Reserve achieving a relatively fuller transmission of past $425 million gift from Connie and Steve ing certified as a child behavioural health
though some other contenders may dare enter the Bank of India (RBI), have India’s economic growth rate hikes. The European Central Bank is also Ballmer. The bachelor’s-level position will specialist and defining the kind of services
ring. If Russia had free and fair elections that pre- slowing down marginally during 2024-25. likely to follow suit around the same time, given work in community settings to identify such a professional will be allowed to
cluded the incarceration of opposition leaders and India’s problem will be balancing a runaway that inflationary tendencies in the Eurozone have struggling kids and offer brief and early deliver. And then there’s convincing insur-
allowed for a true alternative to emerge, it would be capital market with slowing consumption demand. abated somewhat. It will be interesting to see RBI’s interventions to help them. ers that the care provided by these new
reasonable to assume some geopolitical reversion One indicator of the misalignment is visible in chosen path, which has usually implemented rate During their last two years of college, professionals is worth paying for.
to the mean, with its attendant favourable impact non-financial corporate results: robust profit actions after the Fed’s meetings. The question on students enrolled at Ballmer will receive If this experiment works, other institu-
on the global economy, especially commodity pri- growth looks asymmetrical when compared with everybody’s minds: Will RBI cut interest rates intensive hands-on training on evidence- tions might consider adopting the new
ces. But Putin’s re-election seems a certainty at this tepid top-line growth, which suggests rising pre- before Indian elections, despite volatility in food backed interventions. They will gain expe- degree, in theory helping to establish a new
point, and that will have its own economic reper- miumization alongside the wringing out of some and fuel inflation? rience at Portland-area elementary and layer of support for children around the
cussions. The Eurozone story is different, where cost efficiencies. The private sector’s reluctance to As always, there are two jokers in the new year high schools and could later choose to country.
growth will continue to be elusive. The emergence match steps with the government in increasing pack. A lot will depend on China’s role in global geo- embed at paediatricians’ offices, commu- The price tag on the Ballmer’s experi-
of popular right-wing leaders across an expanding capital expenditure probably stems from concerns political shifts and whether it can get back on a fast- nity centres or preschools. On graduating, ment can’t be ignored. Not every institu-
swathe of the continent will possibly mean an EU over unsustainable demand. The question mark growth path after a disappointing 2023. But the sur- they will be ready to go out into the field. tion will be handed more than $400 mil-
settling for tighter immigration barriers, higher over demand growth in 2024 is likely to loom prise of 2024 could well be Japan, as it starts raising These students won’t replace school lion to try fix the mental health crisis. But if
trade-protection walls and lower climate ambi- larger as the elected government may have to interest rates out of negative territory, reflates the counsellors or psychiatrists who have Ballmer can show the concept works, it
tions, even as it tries to reverse recessionary tighten its fiscal belt after elections. Consequently, economy and displays nascent growth signs. graduate-level degrees, but in an ideal shouldn’t be too hard for others to follow.
impulses in some of its key economies, such as the giddy rise in market capitalization seems All in all, 2024 promises to be exciting, political world, brief interventions could prevent The price of the status quo is just too high
Germany and other industrial members. skewed when viewed through the lens of still and full of surprises. some kids from needing more intensive to ignore. ©BLOOMBERG

MY VIEW | a vISIBLe haND

From a year of acrimony to one packed with acronyms


this year. Nasa also plans to launch a space- year-on-year from a peak of 5.5% just about Israel Aerospace Industries, both companies political change will compound the omni-
NARAYAN RAMACHANDRAN craft that will explore one of Jupiter’s largest a year ago, the highest level reached in 40 associated with the IDF. The US contributed present volatility. Mexico will most likely
moons, Europa. years. The cat-and-mouse game between a total of about $1.6 billion to this system. elect its first woman president since both
LLMs: If there was one phenomenon that the Fed and inflation (and by extension, The IDF also continues to use the Israeli candidates of the principal parties are
defined 2023, it was artificial intelligence financial markets) will continue in 2024, made Uzi (name after Major Uziel Gal) sub- women. Elections are welcome, but illiberal-
(AI), particularly large language models with the Fed on alert until it sees the level machine gun, along with the modern Negev ism pervades many of these countries.

T
he year 2023 was characterized by a (LLMs). It is likely that OpenAI released coming down to 2%. Only once that happens NG7 general purpose machine gun. The ‘India’ versus NDA: The Congress-led coa-
belligerent, acrimonious world. And ChatGPT 4.5, its latest LLM version, by will the Fed likely start cut- Israeli air-force’s fleet of lition upstaged the BJP-led one last year
2024 promises more of the same. To stealth just before year end. This version will ting interest rates, perhaps fighters is made up of US with its choice of ‘INDIA’ as a moniker. But
try and make sense of it, here is a somewhat represent a marked improvement over during the second half of Here’s a set of F-16s. The US can exert BJP had the last laugh in the state elections
acronymous look at the world ahead. Some ChatGPT 3.0 that took the world by storm 2024. This path has signifi- enormous clout over Israel by sweeping the states of Rajasthan, Madhya
of these initialisms made it into our con- early last year. Google’s Gemini and Meta’s cant implications for abbreviations and a resolution of the con- Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Elections are
sciousness only last year. Others have been LLaMA are among its many competitors. emerging markets like flict will require the US to notoriously difficult to call several months
in usage for a while. We can expect all of Now that this race is well and truly on, look India for its impact on
through which be less ambivalent between ahead, but the NDA will likely return to

is chairman, InKlude Labs. Read


them to become more widely recognized
this year.
for AI in general, and LLMs in particular, to
make an even bigger impact in 2024. While
domestic rates, capital
flows and the exchange
we could look at war and peace. Continued
funding for Ukraine’s
power in India for a third consecutive term,
a modern-day record for India. Super-fore-
Narayan’s Mint columns at
www.livemint.com/
Isro: The Indian Space Research Organi-
sation had a banner 2023, with a pioneering
technological change is not new to the
world, a technology transformation that
rate. If the US does achieve
a soft-landing, it will be
what to expect weapons from both the US
and EU during 2024 will
casters at The Economist have put out a 70%
chance of the NDA securing more than 299
avisiblehand soft-landing on the south side of the moon. grows by an order of magnitude (10 times or good for global trade and as we begin become more difficult, seats in the country’s 543-seat Lok Sabha.
On 1 January 2024, India’s space agency more) in a single year is a new phenomenon. markets as well. which may create condi- C0P-29: The United Nations Conference
placed its X-ray Polarimeter Satellite in The world’s first comprehensive regulations Uzi: Not only did the another year tions for the discussion of a of the Parties (CoP), which meets annually to
orbit, and has six major upcoming missions to address the use of AI were drafted in the Ukraine conflict not end in resolution. further climate action, will meet next
this year. The most noteworthy are Gagan- EU and will likely be turned into an Act this 2023, another brutal war 50%: Unprecedented so November in Baku, Azerbaijan. Like the host
yaan 1, which will prepare India for manned year. More regulation will undoubtedly fol- between Israel and Hamas began last Octo- far, countries that represent more than 50% UAE in 2023, Azerbaijan is a hydrocarbon-
space flight, and Mangalyaan 2, India’s sec- low, but it may be unable to keep up with the ber. The weapon systems of the Israeli of the world’s population will go to elections rich country. We can expect any commit-
ond mission to Mars. Nasa and Isro will col- progress in this technology. Defence Forces (IDF) are primarily made in 2024. In addition to India, big and small ment to a timetable for the elimination of
laborate in launching NISAR, a high-resolu- PCE: The preferred inflation indicator for domestically or sourced from the US. For countries like Bangladesh, Taiwan, the US, hydrocarbons to remain elusive.
tion radar-based earth mapping system. At the US Federal Reserve Bank (FED) is the instance, the now famous Iron Dome all- Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, Iran and P.S: “DAE have a POV? HMU.” That’s my
the invitation of Nasa, an Indian astronaut Core Personal Consumption Expenditures weather air defence system was developed Pakistan will elect governments. At a time of (feeble) attempt to communicate in social
might visit the International Space Station (PCE) Index. The core PCE dropped to 3.2% by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and great uncertainty, the potential for massive media vocabulary.

Social Media Pakistan 0342-4938217


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Culture opens our hearts to one
another. And the currency in Yo-Yo
culture is not money, but trust Ma

06 HYDERABAD TUESDAY 02 01 2024


� �

A
S January 22 approaches, an Ram’s return to his birthplace after five centuries would be vents Hindus from even seeking peaceful,
unprecedented fervour grips legal reclaim of what has been forcibly
INDIAN EXPRESS IS NOT AN the nation as we prepare for momentous. The Ayodhya temple should not be seen snatched from them. Which justice-abid-
INDUSTRY. IT IS A MISSION. the inauguration of the Ram through political binaries, but as civilisational renaissance ing democracy in the world would have
— Ramnath Goenka mandir in Ayodhya. While all such provisions?

WHEN THE SOUL


the competitive politics sur- Even in Muslim countries, mosques are
rounding it, especially in an routinely displaced for mundane needs like
election year, is inevitable and also insig- widening roads or laying railway lines. But

BOOST DOMESTIC RADAR nificant for several of us, a confident ex-


pression of hope and faith for a multitude OF A CIVILISATION in India, the albatross of secularism always
rests on Hindu shoulders. Appropriating

CAPABILITY TO FIGHT FINDS UTTERANCE


of common Indians who have no overt po- the resources of Hindu institutions does
litical or ideological tilts is unmissable. It not compromise constitutional moralities,

CLIMATE CHANGE
is truly an epochal moment when the soul but the prime minister inaugurating an
of a civilisation long suppressed seems to iconic temple shatters the ever-fragile warp
be finally finding utterance—75 years af- and weft of our secularism.

T
ter the nation found that voice. Mass The Ayodhya inauguration is also a blow
HE northeast monsoon is Tamil Nadu’s lifeline, but it has prayers and lighting of lamps across tem- to the pernicious role played by ideological-
left the state battered this year. In some of its southern ples in cities and villages, marathon chant- ly-driven historians who blatantly lied in
districts, the precipitation just went off the charts as 2023 ing sprees, people placing earthen lamps VIKRAM SAMPATH Historian, fellow of the Royal Historical Society, court and got away with no repercussions.
came to a close. Tirunelveli district logged a 504 percent in front of their homes to commemorate author of 8 books including the upcomingWaiting for As K K Muhammad, former regional direc-
the return of Ram from his exile—every- Shiva: Unearthing the Truth of Kashi’s Gyan Vapi tor (north) of ASI, who was part of the Ayo-
excess precipitation in December alone, followed by
Thoothukudi with 454 percent variation. Such was the may- one being that proverbial squirrel that did dhya survey, reveals that these dubious his-
its tiny bit in building Ram’s ambitious torians brainwashed the Muslim
hem of weather that some pockets recorded the entire season’s
bridge to Lanka. community, which was conciliatory initial-
rainfall in a span of 24 hours. The extreme rainfall, a 100-year For the longest time, a Hindu was called ly, and instilled false hopes that they would
record for the state, has been one on a long list that extreme upon to look at herself with sheer apologia, manufacture evidence in their favour.
climate events that India encountered last year, which wit- and made to believe that we were a rootless Unsubstantiated propaganda was
nessed devastation in the Northeast, Uttarakhand and civilisation that ran merely on a sterile cod- passed off as history in several cases, in-
Himachal Pradesh too. The country is just coming to terms ification of laws. Every other community cluding Kashi Vishwanath, by Congress-
in India could proudly wear its identity and men such as Pattabhi Sitaramayya or Bi-
with the mindboggling cost of such extreme events. A Reserve
faith on their sleeve. But for a Hindu to do shambhar Nath Pande. Marxist historians
Bank paper last year estimated that the country lost a stagger- so was deemed regressive and communal. such as Gargi Chakravartty and K N Pan-
ing $69 billion due to climate-related events in 2019. As Tamil Hindus are hammered with hysterical ha- ikkar claimed Aurangzeb destroyed the
Nadu pegs its flood losses at a staggering `21,692 crore, there rangues of them having a disaggregated temple not of his own will, but on the ad-
is unanimity that India must bring more focus and resources faith that did not believe in congregation— vice of Hindu rajas who were outraged by
to precise, localised weather forecasting. their teerth yatras and shahi snaans not- priests molesting the Rani of Kutch. De-
Given the geography and demography, India must invest in withstanding. Hence their expression of monise the Brahmin, undermine Hindu
their faith had to be muted. After all, mak- faith, whitewash and act as apologists for
improving Doppler weather radars (DWR) footprints across ing the minorities comfortable was the only Islamic bigots was a clear pattern of Ne-
the country. DWR systems enable a substantially robust track- goal of Indian secularism as was perversely hruvian secular historiography. This
ing of extreme weather events in specific geographies in real practiced. This belief has received a mas- stands delegitimised today.
time. It helps reduce loss of lives and supports faster rescues. sive jolt with the upcoming inauguration. For a meta-civilisational hero like Ram,
That is why the US— which encounters about 1,200 tornadoes Much is known now about the history of who inspires adulation and reverence
every year and has lost assets running into billions of dol- the Ayodhya case itself. It is a testimony of SOUMYADIP SINHA across nations, be it Vietnam, Indonesia,
500 years of dogged resilience that Hindus Philippines, Cambodia or Thailand; where
lars—has a network of about 148 DWRs. Currently, India has
showed to reclaim one of their holiest spac- through tortuous legal processes to get back a fossilised museum piece, but never as a art forms, murals, dance dramas are in-
a network of 39 DWRs, which is an improvement from such es. Foreign travellers and British adminis- what was rightfully theirs. Today, when that living tradition. Consequently, Hindu holy spired by his life story, to not have a grand
15 systems across the country 10 years back. The Centre tar- trators, from William Finch, Thomas Her- cherished dream is being realised, we are sites, especially in North India—be it Ayod- temple at his believed birthplace was a na-
gets to take the number past 60 by 2025. bert, Joseph Tieffenthaler, Robert asked not to celebrate it too much. In a way, hya, Kashi, Vrindavan, Prayag, Gaya or tional shame. This is being rectified now.
However, the country primarily depends on procuring DWR Montgomery Martin and several others re- the Ayodhya consecration demolishes for Mathura—languished in utter squalor with At the height of the Ram Janmabhoomi
systems from US and European countries, besides having counted how, despite its destruction by Ba- good this very warped Nehruvian idea no significant infrastructure, sanita- movement, V S Naipaul saw it as “a new,
bar, the shrine received the quiet adoration of India where the ancient tion or tourism facilities. historical awakening” of “Indians becom-
sourced from China in the past. To scale up the DWR footprint
of devout Hindus. From the efforts of the had to be eased out and re- The biggest irony is that the ing alive to their history” and “beginning
India has to boost domestic manufacturing, which requires Marathas and Nihang Sikhs to numerous placed with a new India that same ‘secular’ state has no to understand that there has been a great
substantial private investment. Only a handful of companies litigations that went on in British courts had a tenuous connection qualms in controlling only Hin- vandalising of India”. On this momentous
at present assemble the imported systems and need the hand- since 1858, the desire to consecrate a grand with its past at best. du temples and educational insti- occasion, when Ram returns to his birth
holding of the meteorological department and other space sci- Ram temple here is not a recent phenome- The Somnath flashpoint was a tutions. Governments of just 10 town from a 500-year exile, commentators
ence institutions for technology. Now the Union earth sciences non. The wealth of literary, historical and case in point where Nehru frowned states control more than 110,000 looking at this in juvenile binaries of tem-
minister, Kiren Rijiju, has asserted that the country will take legal proofs, as also archaeological evidence on the exercise as being Hindu-revivalist temples, with the Tamil Nadu ple versus employment or BJP vs non-BJP
that emerged through the Archaeological and one that would affect his government’s temple trusts owning 478,000 acres are infantilising this genuine civilisation-
a leading role in climate studies and forecasting. To achieve Survey adds further credence. That it was secular image abroad. He even prevailed of temple land and controlling 36,425 tem- al renaissance. India has long slipped
this, the government has to facilitate a proper manufacturing always called Masjid-e-Janamsthan and not upon President Rajendra Prasad not to par- ples and 56 mutts. All other minority insti- from the iron fists of Nehruvians and their
ecosystem that can compete with the international market. Babri Masjid was a further giveaway as to ticipate in the inauguration. Nehru would tutions have the rights to own and manage assorted elite clubs of courtiers. To
whose birthplace it was commemorating. have rather restored and given the temple their religious and educational institu- wake up to this reality will do them all a
Yet Hindus had to wait patiently for five tions in a secular India. Draconian laws tonne of good.
BIG SPORTING DECISIONS
away to the ASI than reinstall the jyotirlin-
centuries and, even after freedom, go ga. The past was good to be appreciated as like the Places of Worship Act of 1991 pre- (Views are personal)

AWAIT IN THE NEW YEAR

T BANGLADESH POLL POSES


HE folly of prediction is its usual lack of accuracy. Yet,
every year we wake up and take this perilous journey.

NEW CHALLENGES FOR INDIA


The year just past had almost been great on the field;
but off it the year was punctuated with embarrass- Nitish’s ambitions
Ref: JD(U) powerpoint and the Nitish trust
ment and controversies. In 2024, the focus will again
deficit in opposition (Jan 1). JD(U) is mired
be on how India performs at two of the biggest stages. In in internal squabbles and Nitish Kumar is in

B
terms of passion, the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup tops it all. In ANGLADESH’S January 7 a vulnerable position. His personal charisma
terms of gauging India’s standing as a sporting nation, it is elections 7 elections are head- is a plus point but his prime ministerial
the Paris Olympics. ed for a predictable outcome aspirations are misplaced. He does not
The bigger challenge, however, will be for the Indian Cricket because the main opposition command a majority in his own state. He has
Board. India’s most prolific opener in the white ball formats, Bangladesh Nationalist Party ( SUBIR BHAUMIK Senior journalist, to set his own house in order before nurturing
BNP) has refused to partici- Queen Elizabeth fellow at Oxford University, national ambitions.
Rohit Sharma, will be 37 in April. The all-format captain al- pate. Its longtime ally, the pro- Rajarao Kumar, Bengaluru
author most recently of Agartala Doctrine
ready is in the twilight of his career. He has not played T20 Pakistan Jamaat-e-Islami, has failed to
internationals since November 2022. He captained India at the regain registration as a legitimate politi- scams. His seat was denied to heavyweight It is a precarious dilemma for India be- Protecting ourselves
ODI World Cup, where the team finished runners-up after win- cal party after its appeal was defeated in leader Tarana Halim despite her huge cause it is having to back a changed Awa- Ref: Protecting the individual from the AI (Jan
ning 10 games. Middle-order batter and hard-hitting all-round- court by rights activist Tania Amir rep- popularity. Like Robi, Rahman targeted mi League where pro-Indian secularist 1). Though AI can simplify and solve a lot of
er Hardik Pandya has replaced him as the Mumbai Indians resenting the moderate Tarikat Founda- her because of her strong anti-fundamen- elements have been systematically mar- our problems, it has the potential to create
tion. But uncertainties abound in the talist politics—her slogan is “Amar mati, ginalised by the Rahman-led Islamist lob- havoc in society. Human consciousness, which
captain in this season’s IPL. A change of guard in Indian post-election scenario, some of it less can prevent machines from overshadowing us,
amar ma, Pakistan hobe na (My land, my by. China’s influence has grown, too, after
cricket is considered more of an emotional task than a practi- than savoury for India. mother, won’t become Pakistan).” traders with strong Chinese links got can mitigate the chaos created by the AI.
cal endeavour. It needs to be seen if the BCCI would announce Fearing the adverse global impact over Halim is founder chairperson of the more nominations. With India engaged in Dharmarajan A K, Thalassery
Sharma’s successor before the World Cup. The BCCI knows another opposition-less election and in a party’s cultural front and her refusal to a tussle with its strategic partner US,
that a new captain should get enough time to settle down be- vain attempt to deflect Western pressure which wants Hasina’s ouster, its influence Party’s enemy
fore a big event. Then there is the decision on India’s greatest over “murder of democracy” charges, PM over Hasina is at an all-time low. Delhi has Ref: Sudheeran remains strident in his
Sheikh Hasina decided to allow Awami only itself to blame, having missed out on criticism of Cong state leadership (Jan 1).
all-format batter Virat Kohli, who, at 35, is not growing young-
League dissidents, who missed out on of- an opportunity to create a pro-liberation Congressmen’ habit of one-upmanship and
er. Whether he will be part of the T20 World Cup in the West ficial party nomination, to contest as platform during the Shahbagh agitations, squabbling in public is no longer news in
Indies and US needs to be seen. That brings us to another ‘independents’. But the veneer of compe- which could have been converted into a Kerala. As long as they try to outsmart each
Herculean task—bidding for the 2036 Olympics. The prime tition was washed away when the Awami party that would give India a viable alter- other, they will not only be their own worst
minister announced at the Mumbai IOC session that India League agreed not to field candidates in native to Awami League without having to enemy but also the party’s.
would bid. Now, according to the IOC, though there is no time- 26 seats against the Jatiya Party (JP) repeat the disastrous 2001 backing of the C G Kuriakose, Kothamangalam
frame to initiate the process of bidding, the Indian Olympic and against its leftist allies in another BNP-Jamaat coalition.
seven seats. India is now having to back an increas- INDIA strategy
Association (IOA) and the government have to show intent An assessment by intelligence agencies ingly autocratic regime with little demo- Ref: INDIA says ‘we’re ready’ to take on NDA
AFP

and initiate dialogues with the IOC. For that, the IOA needs to point to a cakewalk for Awami League cratic credentials that gets it into tussle (Jan 1). Victories registered by the Congress in
present the bid, and for that to happen they have to appoint a candidates in 174 seats in the 300-member The Awami League that is likely to win with the West This comes after Hasina Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh and Telangana
CEO, which the IOC had been insisting on. House, in 76 of which there are no ‘inde- the January 7 elections is not the same showed clear indications that she fancied can be attributed to the anti-incumbency that
India needs to show that they too can win medals at the pendents’ either. This brings back the the Chinese one-party model over the In- the party capitalised on. INDIA will be ready
spectre of the controversial 2014 polls India-friendly, anti-fundamentalist dian multi-party democracy. The Chinese to take on NDA only when a decision is taken
Olympics. Paris could be the stage to turn the country’s for- party that it was a decade or so ago.
when 153 Awami League were elected un- model draws strength from economic on amicable seat sharing, prime ministerial
tunes in Olympic sports. Medals in double figures would help opposed. The 2018-19 polls were not much It has given more tickets to pro-China growth and passing down of prosperity candidate and a common programme that
boost the rising stature of sports in the country. Here is hop- different after the BNP pulled out halfway which Bangladesh initially followed should be better than what NDA can offer.
traders, is under increasing Islamist
ing for a decisive 2024. alleging electoral fraud. But the agencies during former Finance Minister A M A Venkat Desikan, email
influence, and the country has become
predict a stiff fight in 110 seats between Muhith’s tenure, but under Rahman’s in-
official Awami League candidates and its a kleptocracy under its watch fluence has slid towards kleptocracy. Public confidence
Q U I C K TA K E
independents. Wemay see a repeat of Sri Lanka, Mal- Ref: How to catalyse Karnataka police (Jan
JP and Left candidates are likely to lose clear Beximco’s shady proposals during dives and Nepal—except that in 1). It was interesting to read that the former
FINE LITTERERS IN HIMALAYAN REGION quite a few of their seats because they face her 2015-16 tenure as telecom minister has Bangladesh the party in power may con- director general and inspector general of

T
formidable Awami League independents made her a long-term target for Rahman, tinue to be identified as pro-Indian for police have listed out ways to improve policing
HE 9-km Atal tunnel at Rohtang has given travellers access such as the several-times MP Mir who has reportedly managed to secure historical reasons. in Karnataka. He has sidestepped the issue of
to Lahaul and Spiti districts of Himachal Pradesh like Mostaque Ahmed Robi, a 1971 naval com- nearly 100 nominations for his camp fol- India also has to weigh in for other pos- corruption, which directly contributes to the
never before. Traffic hit a peak this winter—the police re- mando who did not get official nomination lowers—either with strong fundamental- sible less-than-welcome scenarios like op- lack of public confidence in the police force.
ported almost 30,000 vehicle crossings on Christmas day and on the bidding of a powerful Islamist lob- ist background or from the emerging pro- position violence, destabilising US moves Srinivasan S K, email
by within Awami League led by Hasina’s China trader lobby. Many feel this is his like sanctions, visa restrictions or at-
weary travellers posted videos of winding traffic jams at an Ending wars
all-powerful adviser Salman F Rahman. first big step towards a senior position in tempts to cut down the Bangladesh army’s
altitude of 3,000 metres. This access has also made the ecologi- This is despite Rahman’s company Bex- a future Hasina Cabinet. participation in UN peacekeeping. The Ref: Israel, Gaza end dark year with no end in
cally fragile Himalayan region prone to irresponsible tour- imco figuring at the top of the charts in Rahman’s trump card is his son Shay- army battalions that are to be deployed on sight to war (Jan 1). The declaration by Israeli
ism. Pictures of plastic garbage mounds in Sissu, one of the bank defaults. on’s business partnership with Hasina’s poll duty on January 3 are mostly com- PM Benjamin Netanyahu that the war will last
first towns after the crossover from Manali, have started ap- Unlike Robi, most Awami League candi- son Sajeeb Wajed Joy, who is now under manded by officers recruited during the long is sad news. The Russia-Ukraine war will
dates seem to have managed JP and other US government scanner over the purchase 2001-06 BNP-Jamaat era. The fallout of all be reaching its second anniversary and there
pearing. Heavy fines on litterers and continuous messaging smaller-party candidates such as Asadul of multiple properties that are clearly dis- this on the country’s economy will surely seems little scope for its end too. People are
on responsible tourism are needed to keep a balance between Islam Tito with money power. Tito’s name proportionate to Joy’s known sources of worry India. becoming pessimistic about the role of the UN.
economic progress and ecological health. figured prominently in stock market income in Bangladesh and the US. (Views are personal) R Sridharan, Chennai

THE NEW INDIAN EXPRESS


Chairman of the Board: Manoj Kumar Sonthalia Editor: Santwana Bhattacharya
Resident Editor (Telangana) : T Kalyan Chakravarthy* Printed and Published by R K Jhunjhunwala on behalf of Express Publications (Madurai) Private Ltd., at H.No.6-3-1113/1, B.S.Makta Lane, Somajiguda, Near Grand Kakatiya Hotel, Punjagutta, Hyderabad – 500 016 and printed by him at Sakshi Press, Plot No.D-75 & E-52, Industrial Estate (APIE),
Balanagar, Medchal-Malkajgiri District, Telangana. Hyderabad: Vol. 48, No. 2. RNI Reg. No. 32179/77. Phone: 040-23413908. * Responsible for selection of News under the PRB Act. Copyright: Express Publications (Madurai) Private Ltd., All rights reserved. Reproduction in any manner, electronic or otherwise, in whole or in part, without prior written permission is prohibited.

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the pure’ or a theocratic state.
WKH6XPPHU2O\PSLFV7KLVVSRUWLQJH[WUDYD Tellingly the religious hardliners
JDQ]DZLOOQRWRQO\VKRZFDVHWKHSURZHVVRIWKHEHVW ensured that the same was ry’ that besets Pakistan – today Khan, Yahya Khan, Pervez the ‘enemy’ of Pakistan to be
DWKOHWHVEXWDOVRVHUYHDVDSODWIRUPIRUZRUOGKDU blacked out from newspapers with the relative peace and Musharraf etc. But presumably one who was, “hell-bent
and successive governments progress of Kashmir (certain- as the ‘chosen’ successor to the towards creating fissures using
PRQ\7KHWHFKODQGVFDSHLVDOVRSRLVHGIRUJURXQGEUHDNLQJGHYHORSPHQWVLQ feigned ignorance and even ly when compared to Pakistan) decidedly liberal former Army religious, ethnic and political
:LWKDGYDQFHPHQWVLQ$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFHTXDQWXPFRPSXWLQJDQGVSDFHH[SORUDWLRQ removed the same from official and pernicious impact of reli- Chief, General Qamar Bajwa, vulnerabilities”. Clearly tradi-
WKH\HDUKROGVWKHSURPLVHRIWUDQVIRUPDWLYHWHFKQRORJLHVWKDWFRXOGUHVKDSHWKHZD\ records. Even audio recordings of gious extremism backfiring at least he is not from the tional enemies like ‘India’ or
ZHOLYHDQGZRUN*OLPSVHVRIWKHVHWHFKQRORJLFDODGYDQFHPHQWVZHUHYLVLEOHLQ this landmark speech mysterious- on Pakistan, there is a serious Imran Khan coterie (unlike the new ones like ‘West’ or ‘US’
ly ‘disappeared’. The shariaisation rethink about its patent ways. deposed Lt Gen Faiz Hameed). took a backseat. The General
EXWQRZWKHVHSURPLVHWREHPRUHSURIRXQG,QGLDZLWKLWVEXUJHRQLQJWHFKLQGXVWU\ of Pakistan was enthusiastically However, so deep-rooted and General Muneer has his back got his official institutional
LVOLNHO\WRSOD\DVLJQLILFDQWUROHLQWKHVHLQQRYDWLRQV2QWKHGRZQVLGHKRZHYHUWKH partaken by successive dispensa- inextricable is the regressive to the wall with him losing social media handle i.e., Inter-
8NUDLQHZDUPD\OLQJHURQDQGXQFHUWDLQW\LQ*D]DSHUVLVW$QRWKHUFDXVHRIFRQFHUQ tions and obliteration of the past effect of religiosity that the Pakistani soldiers to attacks Services Public Relations
FRXOGEH&29,'RULWVVXEYDULDQWV$OOFRXQWULHVLQFOXGLQJ,QGLDZLOOKDYHWRVWUHQJWK and rewriting history that was politicos are in no position to
0;;C78BB>284C0;
from religious extremist (ISPR) to talk about promot-
bereft of any secularism or inclu- take a stand against religious groups, virtually daily. ing greater interfaith harmony!
HQKHDOWKFDUHV\VWHPVDQGEROVWHUSDQGHPLFSUHSDUHGQHVV7KH1HZ<HDULVH[SHFW
HGWREHFUXFLDOIRUJOREDOFOLPDWHDFWLRQ,QGLDDVDPDMRUSOD\HULQWKHILJKWDJDLQVW
sivity, ensued. The Pakistan of extremism and if anything, 0=38=BC8CDC8>=0; The days of railing gladiator- The departure from usual
current times is perhaps far too they have to maintain a façade like against India, Kashmir, content further entailed insist-
FOLPDWHFKDQJHLVOLNHO\WRWDNHIXUWKHUVWHSVWRWUDQVLWLRQWRZDUGVVXVWDLQDEOHSUDF puritanical, extremist, and intol- of matching piety and sectar- 20?8CD;0C8>= West/US or in support of the ing on ‘truth and knowledge-
WLFHV,QWHUQDWLRQDOFROODERUDWLRQVDQGFRPPLWPHQWVDUHDQWLFLSDWHGWRDGGUHVVHQYL erant even by the standards of a ianism to garner popular votes.
E8ACD0;;H;40E4B
Taliban in Afghanistan have based opinions about nation-
Jinnah, the man who is respon- In such charged and explosive simply outlived their utility – al issues rather than following
URQPHQWDOFKDOOHQJHVFROOHFWLYHO\,WLVFUXFLDOWRDSSURDFKWKHIXWXUHZLWKRSWLPLVP
UHVLOLHQFHDQGDFRPPLWPHQWWRFROODERUDWLYHHIIRUWVIRUDEHWWHUDQGPRUHVXVWDLQDEOH
sible for the partition. times, even if there were to be >=;HC74 General Muneer has no choice rhetoric and propaganda’. The
Today, the chickens of religious progressive elements within but to do the exact opposite, situational coup de grace was
ZRUOGDVQRWHYHU\WKLQJKDSSHQVDVSODQQHGRUIRUWKHEHWWHU+HUHLVZLVKLQJRXUUHDG extremism are coming home to bureaucracy or judiciary, they A4;0C8E4;H<>A4 instead. With the Pakistan-fac- when he tellingly reinvoked
HUVDYHU\+DSS\1HZ<HDU roost, and Pakistan is staring at a too would have to bend to the
38B28?;8=430=3
ing Taliban breathing down his the missing bits from Jinnah’s
hopeless situation with almost all times, that be. All this societal neck and the choice of ‘nor- deliberately suppressed speech
arms of governance i.e., politi- and institutional capitulation <>34A0C4 malising’ relations with India on Aug 11, 1947, and posted
?82D1<; cians, bureaucracy, judiciary, cler-
gy and even elements of the
virtually leaves only the rela-
tively more disciplined and 8=BC8CDC8>=>5C74
still not on the practical menu
– his best bet is to ‘normalise’
verbatim Quaid’s comment,
“You are free. You are free to
once secular, Pakistani Armed moderate institution of the his relations with the United go to your temples. You are
Forces, surrendering recklessly to Pakistani Armed Forces to ?0:8BC0=80A<43 States and to actively demon- free to go to your mosques or
such revisionist beliefs. Some take charge of the narrative 5>A24BC>C0:4 strate inclusive, healing and to any other places of worship
leaders like Taliban Khan (Imran and salvage the nation from its secular actions, within in this State of Pakistan”.
Khan) or even General Zia-ul- downward spiral. This too, is 270A64>5C74 Pakistan’s fractured society. Clearly, General Muneer is
haq drove the slide into religious not easy as the Pakistani ‘estab- General Muneer’s dash to the knowingly playing a very dif-
fire by giving its Armed Forces a lishment’ (Military) has also =0AA0C8E40=3 United States where we met ferent tune, optics, text and the
revised motto like ‘Iman, taqwa, got infected with the invariable B0;E064C74 the who’s who to reiterate his accompanying outreach are
jihad fi sabilillah’ (A follower of air of religiousity that blows ‘ally’ status and beseech donors part of the much-needed recal-
none but Allah, the fear of Allah, across Pakistan. Little is known =0C8>=5A><8CB to bail out Pakistan from the ibration. Ironically, India
Jihad for Allah) are to be blamed about the current Pakistani economic mess, is from the would want the General to
for the ensuing morass, ignorance Army Chief ’s personal 3>F=F0A3B?8A0; same playbook. succeed as it can ill-afford a
and weaponisation of society predilections other than that Last week he did the unthink- failed state on its border.
that has forsaken better sense, for he too is a rare Haffuz (learnt able in recent times by making (The writer, a military veter-
blind bigotry. Earlier ‘Kashmir’ the Quran completely) and a bold outreach to the vulner- an, is a former Lt Governor
and ‘Islam’ were the only two that he is not from the flam- able Christian community of Andaman & Nicobar
issues that banded the amoral boyant and westernised school during Christmas and suggest- Islands and Puducherry. The
concept of the ‘two-nation theo- of officering like an Ayub ing a refreshing definition of views expressed are personal)

6Xa[bX]caPSXcX^]P[7X\PRWP[XPccXaTW^[SQP[[^^]bc^U^a\!!#SdaX]V=TfHTPaRT[TQaPcX^]bX]BWX\[P ?C8 ;4CC4AB C>C


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Sir — India reflects on a year (2023)
marked by significant political, sports, and
entertainment milestones. From the coun- U^[[^fTS SX_[^\PcXR TUU^acb Qh =Tf 3T[WX
try rejoicing as Chandrayaan-3 landed suc- ?aX\T<X]XbcTa<^SXP[b^\Tc@PcPa³bCP\X\QX]

[Y^W_VDQ]Y\`_\YdYSc cessfully on the moon to collective mourn- 7P\PS0[CWP]X^]cWTbXST[X]Tb^U2>?!'X]


ing during multiple natural disasters and 3dQPXCWT\TTcX]VP__TPabc^WPeT_[PhTSP
;E=1B bXV]XUXRP]ca^[TX]cWXbRPbTCWTbXV]X]V^UcWT
heartbreak when India lost the cricket
274;;0??0= World Cup finals - 2023 was a roller-coast- ! #caTPchT]PQ[X]VcWTcaP]bUTa^U_aXb^]Tab
'HVSLWHVRPHKLJKV9LMD\DNDQWKZRXOGEHUHPHPEHUHG er ride for the country. India had a lot to
celebrate this year - a new Parliament, two
QTcfTT]8]SXPP]S@PcPac^R^\_[TcTcWTXabT]
cT]RTbX]cWTXaW^\TR^d]cahPSSbP]X\_^a
DVDQDFWRUZKRIDLOHGWRPDNHDQLPSDFWLQSROLWLFV successful space missions, an effective res-
cue mission to drill out people stuck inside
cP]cSX\T]bX^]c^cWXbRPbT
CWT]PeheTcTaP]b\PhQTQa^dVWcc^8]SXPU^a
ijayakanth, popularly prime position in Tamil Nadu gle seat. Vijayakanth under- a collapsed tunnel and the Indian stock cWTaTbc^UcWTXaX\_aXb^]\T]cCWXbaTeTabP[^U

V known as Karuppu
MGR (the black
MGR) and poor man’s
politics. But it was not to be
like that. Vijayakanth
ridiculed Jayalalithaa when
stood that theatrics alone
would not help him to win
elections. The political
market scales to new highs. But the eth-
nic violence in the Northeast that led to
hundreds of people losing their lives, mul-
C
WT TXVWc 8]SXP] =Peh eTcTaP]b UPRX]V cWT
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Rajinikanth, rose to fame as she hiked the power tariff as grapevine is that Vaiko and tiple natural disasters and accidents killing cT]RTbaTSdRTS*PWXVWTaR^dacX]@PcPaR^\ 8]SXP]V^eTa]\T]cP]Sb_hPVT]RXTbWPeTc^QT
an actor in low-budget Tamil well as the price of milk sold Thirumavalavan had a hearty scores and reputed women wrestlers of the \dcTScWTXa_d]XbW\T]cbc^_aXb^]cTa\b^U" RPaTUd[fWX[TR^]SdRcX]V^_TaPcX^]b^]U^aTXV]
movies. Though he had a by the State Government. laugh after the results were country fighting against sexual harassment !$hTPabCWT<X]Xbcah^U4gcTa]P[0UUPXab^U8]SXP b^X[8]SXP]]PcX^]P[bWPeTaTRT]c[hQTT]PaaTbc
string of successes, movie Within a fortnight more than announced! The results of the also dominated the headlines this year. R^]UXa\TS cWT aTSdRcX^] X] bT]cT]RTb U^a cWT TSX]SXUUTaT]cR^d]caXTbSdTc^RWPaVTb^UTb_X
makers were not confident in 15 members of the 29-mem- 2016 election took a heavy toll India had a lot to celebrate this year. In May, TXVWcU^a\Ta=Peh^UUXRTabX]e^[eTSX]cWT3PWaP ^]PVTP]S\daSTa
betting on him as a mini- A section of the political ber DMDK crossed over to on the health of Vijayakanth India received a new Parliament building, V[^QP[RPbTCWTaTSdRcX^]^UcWTSTPcWbT]cT]RT Preetiyukta Mohakud | Bhubaneshwar
mum-guarantee actor.He pundits termed the reduction the AIADMK and sat as a and his public appearances described as "embodying the culture,
earned the goodwill of the in the number of seats won by separate block. In the 2014 became rare. Vijayakanth was pride, and spirit of the entire nation". senior Congress leader Rahul Gandhi from
people through social work the AIADMK and the DMK Lok Sabha election, the not his old self and had lost Situated adjacent to the existing Parliament the Lok Sabha. 49C@?C1<?6EB21>G1CD5
and charity. The Desiya as a result of DMDK cutting DMDK cast its lots with the coherence in speech and way House and constructed at an estimated cost Bidyut Kumar Chatterjee | Faridabad Sir — The Ministry of Road Transport and
Mupporkku Dravida into the traditional vote share. NDA. The AIADMK swept of thinking. What his life tells of Rs 971 crore, the new building can Highways (MoRTH) has proposed to use
Kazhakam (DMDK for short) The DMDK increased its the polls by winning 37 of the the world is that politics is a accommodate 888 parliamentarians in the G9D388E>D9>7 inorganic solid waste in the construction
was launched by Vijayakanth vote share in the 2009 Lok 39 seats leaving one each to different game and one Lok Sabha and 300 in the Rajya Sabha, rep- Sir — It is deplorable that the primitive and of highway road projects, following the suc-
in 2005 at a time when the Sabha polls to 10 per cent the BJP and the PMK. The should have an inherent pas- resenting an increase from the existing 543 evil practice of "witch hunting" continues cess of pilot projects. To resolve the prob-
Tamil electorate was waiting though the party drew a husband-wife team earned a sion for the game of power and 250. India rejoiced in July with the to thrive in parts of India, especially in lem of disposal of urban solid waste and
for a refreshing change from blank in the scoreboard. big appreciation from Prime play. M G Ramachandran launch of Chandrayaan-3, its moon mis- Assam. An Adivasi woman was burnt alive limited land availability for construction of
the DMK and the AIADMK, Leaders like Panrutti Minister Narendra Modi for and J Jayalalithaa who made sion. The celebration continued into by a group of men, in front of her husband, embankments, MoRTH through NHAI
with which they were frustrat- Ramachandran who was in the industrious and hard it to the top from the world of August when Chandrayaan-3 made histo- suspecting her to practice " witchcraft" in has undertaken two pilot projects for the
ed. Vijayakanth offered the political wilderness following campaign done by them celluloid had learnt a lot ry by achieving a successful lunar landing Assam's Sonitpur district a few days ago, utilisation of inert material which is one
voters a corruption-free and his ouster from the AIADMK across the State.When it was about politics before ventur- on August 23. Though it's not good for the sending shock waves across the country. of the major components of municipal
development-oriented gov- had joined Vijayakanth and time for the 2016 assembly ing out to this uncertain ter- country, even then India overtakes China With such despicable incidents being solid waste.
ernment under him. Though advised him to forge an polls, Vijayakanth made yet rain. Tamil Nadu people will as the world's most populous country: reported from the state at a frightening fre- The disposal of solid waste generated daily
the DMDK had contested alliance with Jayalalithaa. In another faux pas by joining remember Vijayakanth as the Officially surpassing China, India is now quency it is time for the government and is a major environmental challenge being
from all the 234 assembly the 2011 assembly election, hands with Thol king of tragedy who failed to the most populous country globally. the police to tie loose ends up in law. A faced in urban areas across the country. As
constituencies, the only per- the DMDK emerged as the Thirumavalavan (VCK, a make an impact in politics. Taking the helm of the G20, India assumed strong law on prohibition and prevention per a rough assessment, around 10,000
son to get elected from the second largest party after the Harijan outfit) and Vaiko’s The only consolation for his the role of host for a two-day summit in of witch hunting does exist in Assam but hectares of land are locked in dump sites.
party was Vijayakanth, his AIADMK winning 29 seats. MDMK. The fans is that there are no other New Delhi on September 9-10, bringing the enforcement has been indecisive. Due to limited land availability, these land-
first foray into the assembly. The DMK lost the race for the Thirumavalavan and Vaiko political leaders in the present together representatives from member Witch hunting is a " mob culture"; the gov- fill sites are on the verge of attaining max-
The DMDK managed to post of Leader of Opposition. declared that Vijayakanth generation in Tamil Nadu and guest nations. ernment cannot be content with mere slo- imum capacity and pose serious environ-
mobilize 8.38 per cent of Had Vijayakanth restricted would be the Front’s chief who would create pangs of Politically, the nation witnessed the creation gans and awareness drives. Women are the mental and health hazards.
popular votes and there was his tantrums and loose minister candidate. separation as Vijayakanth. of the INDIA bloc, record-high MP sus- targets in areas where rumour-mongering Bhagwan Thadani | Mumbai
a feeling that Vijayakanth speeches in the assembly, it He lost the election and for- (The writer is special corre- pensions, and Assembly polls in nine states. on causes of disease and death is blamed
could be the third alternative was almost certain that he feited his deposit while his spondent The Pioneer; The month of March witnessed the dom- on the "witches." BT]Shh^daUUTTSQPRZcc^)
the people were waiting for. would have occupied the party failed to win even a sin- views are personal) inating headlines of the disqualification of Ganpathi Bhat | Akola [TccTabc^_X^]TTa/V\PX[R^\
Social Media Pakistan 0342-4938217
        

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SHUVRQDOL]HGOHDUQLQJFRPHVLQ,W VDQDSSURDFKWKDWVD\VHYHU\FKLOG V t is In Consonance With Cop28’s nomic growth which makes the icized U.A.E Presidency.Experts ment which lacks a comprehensive
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I Future Action Plan. Coal, Gas and Oil
may stay for some decades in devel-
oping countries including India. The
outcome of the recent 2023 United
Nations Climate Change Conference,
COP28, held in Dubai was a completely jux-
taposition and collocation of a well-thought
path patchy but a good beginning
has been made to tackle the climate
crisis.
Environment experts say that India’s
strategy and policy are in accor-
dance with the Dubai Declaration
which lends credibility and farsight-
attribute it to other factors like com-
mitment, flexibility and mandato-
ry requirement of each country to
survive in future.
India to become carbon-free by
2070
India has already projected its
account of all factors in order to
achieve carbon emission targets in
future.
Several scientists have expressed
their concern over carbon capture
which is still unproven and there is
an attempt to distract the attention
+HPD\QHYHUKDYHEHFRPHWKHPDVWHUEODVWHUZHUHYHUHWRGD\ strategy and farsighted vision as its 11,000- edness to the limitations on permit- resolve to become carbon-neutral by from policies to cut fossil fuels. The
word unanimously called for transitioning ting new and persistent coal gener- 2070 hence it does not have any plan doors have been left open to ensure
away from fossil fuels in energy systems in ation in several countries in the to re-purpose coal-based power sta- the continuation of the fossil fuels
an equitable and orderly manner in the world. Prime Minister Narender tions before 2030. India has stressed expansion drive which may have an
world which is also being termed as India’s Modi has demonstrated his resolve the dire need for the accelerated adverse impact on the final goal of
victory as compared to previous to make climate action, a collabo- efforts that are required amongst the the COP28 declaration.
summits.COP28 exhibits India's philoso- rative process, which leaves no one countries towards the goal of phase- Analysts opine that one of the
phy of ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam' (the
world is a family) and extended unequiv- >=4>5C74 behind and takes every nation
along to achieve the final goal.
down of unabated coal power. It
leaves room for India to avert an
biggest Takeaways from COP28
pertains to the lack of commitment
ocal support to UAE’s COP28 presidency 18664BC In view of the marathon discussion energy crisis because it permits the and resolve of developed nations to
provide sufficient funds to most cli-
which has shown transparency, fairness and during the COP28 conference, none addition of new coal-based plants
free exchange of thought amongst all par- C0:40F0HB5A>< can deny the fact that India believes which is essential for its fast-grow- mate-venerable nations to enable
ticipating countries.
India’s future strategy. India has already pro- 2>?!'?4AC08=B in the climate action plan which
veers around the theme of display-
ing economy. Due to China and
India’s pressure and weightage, the
them to adapt to the escalating
impacts of the climate crisis besides
jected its resolve to become carbon-neutral C>C74;02:>5 ing collaboration and camaraderie UAE Consensus document dropped strengthening their economies to
move towards renewable energy and
by 2070 hence it does not have any plan to for action-oriented approach references to “limiting the permit-
re-purposing coal-based power stations 2><<8C<4=C towards a healthier and greener ting of new and unabated coal achieve Net Zero goal by 2050. The

7DLORULQJ(GXFDWLRQWR)LW(YHU\&KLOG
before 2030. India has stressed the dire need
for the accelerated efforts which are 0=3A4B>;E4>5 future. India has urged every nation
to adopt decisions of the Dubai
power generation” which is in the
interest of people of both nations
final draft does not take care of the
earlier commitment of $100 billion
6RZKDWSDUHQWVDQGJXDUGLDQVQHHGLVQ·WDFU\VWDOEDOOWRVHHWKH required amongst the countries towards the 34E4;>?43 Consensus which have got the and will prove beneficial in the long
run. But it is a fact that India will
per year by developed nations per
year which has not been met so far.
IXWXUHEXWDOLWWOHIDLWK,W VWUDGLQJLQWKHDQ[LHW\GULYHQ)202IRUD goal of phase-down of unabated coal theme of Global Stock-take and The
FDOPWUXVWLQRXUFKLOGUHQ VQDWXUDOFXULRVLW\DQGWKHLUULJKWWRDWDL
power. It leaves room for India to avert an =0C8>=BC> Global Goal thereby re-emphasiz- have to depend upon fossil fuels for As per the projected figure, devel-
ORUHGHGXFDWLRQ/HW VFKDQQHORXUGULYHWRGRULJKWE\RXUNLGVLQWR
energy crisis because it permits a require-
ment-based addition of new coal plants ?A>E834 ing PM Modi’s principle based on
equity and climate justice. Experts
a longer period as compared to
developed nations though more
oping nations will require about $6
trillion prior to 2030 and adaptation
KHOSLQJWKHPH[SORUHWKHLUXQLTXHSDWKV7KHPHVVDJHLVFOHDUOHW·V
QRWZDLWIRUDFDUHHUFULVLVLQQLQWKJUDGHWRILJXUHRXWZKRWKH\ZDQW
which is essential for its fast-growing BD558284=C say that India has demonstrated than 100 nations have pleaded for
the phasing out of coal-based
may warrant $388 billion per
annum and a clear energy transition
economy. Due to China and India’s pres- through its G20 presidency climate
WREH7KHMRXUQH\VWDUWVQRZ%\DOLJQLQJWKHLUSUHVHQWH[SORUDWLRQV sure and weightage, the UAE Consensus 5D=3BC><>BC action that its’ resolve is based on the dependence. Experts suggest that will consume $4.29 trillion per
ZLWKWKHLUQDWXUDOLQFOLQDWLRQVZH UHQRWRQO\SUHSDULQJWKHPWRVXF document dropped references to “limiting
the permitting of new and unabated coal 2;8<0C4 principle of collective action which
ensures the participation of every
developed nations will have to lib-
erally contribute to the fund meant
year until 2030. It does not mention
even the minimum level of funds
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power generation” which is in the interest ED;=4A01;4 country. for the purpose of achieving the goal
for fossil fuels otherwise it will
requirement and it is silent on this
issue whereas a commitment has
of people of both nations and will prove Victory For India’s Policies COP28
WKHVFKRRO\DUGOHW·VUHPHPEHUWKDWRXUNLGVDUHQ·WPLVVLQJRXW³WKH\·UH beneficial in the long run. But it is a fact that =0C8>=BC> provided an equal playing field for remain as a mirage. been made for a meagre fund of
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India will have to depend upon fossil fuels
for longer periods as compared to devel- 4=01;4C74<C> India and other developing nations
whereas COP26 held in Glasgow
The United States backs Dubai
consensus. Experts appreciate U.S.
$470 million which needs to be
enhanced.
+RZ&DQ:H+HOS" oped nations though more than 100 nations 030?CC>C74 was a big setback because its dec- Climate Envoy John Kerry’s clarion
call to consider the COP28 deal, as
Against this backdrop, climate
experts and scientists opine that
:HFDQVWDUWVPDOO+DYHFRQYHUVDWLRQVZLWK\RXUFKLOGUHQGLVFRY have pleaded for the phasing out of coal- laration called for the ‘phase down
HUZKDWOLJKWVXSWKHLUH\HVDQGFUHDWHWKDWVSDUN7KHQIRVWHULW based dependence. Experts suggest that 4B20;0C8=6 of unabated coal power’ which is the a clear and unambiguous message there is no option with developing
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developed nations will have to liberally con-
tribute to the fund meant for the purpose 8<?02CB>5C74 backbone of our fulfilment of ener-
gy needs. It did not mention the use
to the world, that needs to move
away from fossil fuels which has
nations but to switch over to new
targets. It is an open secret that these
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of achieving the goal for fossil fuels other- 2;8<0C42A8B8B of fossil fuels like oil and gas which been agreed upon by even those
countries that economically rely on
nations are dictated by their ener-
gy needs and weak financial status
wise it will remain as a mirage. are being used by developed nations
OHDGLQJWRDFFRPSOLVKPHQWDQGFRQWHQWPHQWWKDWDUHERWKSURIRXQG The success of the event rightly warranted including the United States. fossil fuels. It is also significant that hence oil, gas and coal are here to
DQGSHUVRQDO<RXUFKLOGGRHVQ WQHHGWRULGHWKHZDYHRIHYHU\SDVV celebrations which was visible but critics say Contrary to it, the “Dubai the fossil fuels issue was on the table stay though COP28 may show a
LQJIDGWKH\QHHGWKHVXSSRUWWRVDLOWKHLURZQFRXUVH³DFRXUVH that it could be short-lived as production Consensus” is being dubbed as a for discussion and every nation is path to understanding the serious
of Oil, coal and gas continue to rise hence landmark event in the history which striving hard to find a long-term fallout leading to a climate catastro-
WKDW VMXVWDVZRUWK\UHZDUGLQJDQGEXUVWLQJZLWKSRWHQWLDO$IWHU
Fossil fuel companies are focusing and plan- was signed by 200 nations and solution that should augur a new era phe in future.
DOOWKHJRDOLVQ WWRFORQHWKHJHQLXVQH[WGRRUEXWWRFXOWLYDWHWKH ning for enhanced production for decades. became a reality despite some dis- in the field of climate action. (The writer is a political analyst
JHQLXVZLWKLQ As per data, several countries are still fully senting voices which, no doubt, is Critics have got their reservations and a former journalist, views
7KHZULWHULVFRIRXQGHU &(2RI-RRQLI\YLHZVDUHSHUVRQDO reliant on fossil fuels for revenue and eco- a big achievement of the much crit- about the COP28 summit agree- are personal)

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Amidst the renewed head- dreds of animals. There have epidemic among livestock has that people might have to face veterinary doctors in the Doda
lines of the COVID-19 pan- been repeated pleas from the been steadily increasing in more difficulties in the near district. Consequently, it's
demic, a different crisis is locals urging prompt admin- these areas for some time, future. impractical for doctors to visit
unfolding in the secluded istrative intervention and mea- hinting at potential future dif- The central question arises: every household for animal
Doda district of Jammu and sures to preserve the animals' ficulties for the local popula- What is this disease, and what inspections. Nevertheless, he
Kashmir. Here, an unknown lives. The administration has tion. are its underlying causes? suggests that through veteri-
ailment has become a cause of yet to dispatch veterinary doc- Sayma Bano, a local woman, is Addressing this query, local nary camps organized by the
worry among the nomadic tors to the affected villages, deeply troubled by the lack of veterinarian Dr Talib Hussain department, animal treatment
communities, claiming the intensifying the distress among compensation for the losses mentions that the exact caus- can be facilitated. Dr. Hussain
lives of numerous domesticat- 2125B=05824 the populace. incurred due to the death of es of this disease are yet to be urges livestock owners to take
ed animals that constitute the In this context, social worker livestock from the disease. determined. However, chang- precautions themselves and
primary source of income for Muhammad Iqbal emphasizes She emphasizes the crucial ing environmental conditions promptly contact the nearest
the underprivileged. the animals stopped eating and that the residents of these need for the administration's and adverse weather are veterinary doctor if any signs
Consequently, the economic drinking, succumbing to the mountainous regions confront attention to compensate the believed to be contributing fac- of illness appear in their ani-
repercussions of these animal illness within a few days. It is various challenges during the poor for their losses. Sayma tors. Poor-quality fodder is also mals. Despite the challenges,
deaths are causing widespread crucial to note that for the winter season. The area has already informed the identified as a potential cause there is hope that the admin-
distress. The local veterinary denizens of these remote remains snowbound for three District Development for the disease's spread. Dr istration will swiftly dispatch a
department has faced chal- regions, livestock rearing is a months, rendering it inacces- Commissioner, Vishwapal Hussain advises livestock own- team of veterinary doctors to
lenges in identifying the dis- means of economic empower- sible. Failure to address these Mahajan, about the dire situ- efforts, there has been no pos- Thathri, adds to the concern ers to provide their animals these areas, safeguarding both
ease and administering appro- ment as they earn their income challenges before winter sets in ation. She urges him not only itive response so far. She by stating that this unknown with fresh grass instead of con- the income sources of the
priate treatment. through the sale of milk and could significantly impact the to arrange compensation for underscores that the adminis- disease has been progressive- taminated fodder. While he poor and their livestock from
According to accounts from dung. The gravity of the issue overall well-being of the peo- the deaths of animals but also tration's silence on this issue is ly affecting the livestock in the acknowledges that the govern- this unknown disease.
the locals, almost 20 days ago, becomes apparent when con- ple in this region. Another to ensure better treatment for aggravating their difficulties. Thathri sub-district. The cur- ment and administration are (Baber Nafice is a journalist
their animals began exhibiting sidering that numerous house- social worker, Adil Hussain, the surviving livestock against Fatima Farooq, the Block rent trajectory of the disease taking the issue seriously, he from Doda, J&K. Views are
symptoms of fever. Over time, holds in this area rear hun- points out that the unknown this disease. Despite their Development Officer of spreading this year indicates highlights a severe shortage of personal. Charkha Features)
Social Media Pakistan 0342-4938217
Social Media Pakistan 0342-4938217
Social Media Pakistan 0342-4938217

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